Good morning, and thanks for joining us for our FY twenty-four financial results presentation. With me today is Chief Financial Officer, Ryan Gurner. We will refer to slides on the results presentation released on the ASX this morning, starting now on slide three. Now, there are many records that we have delivered throughout the last year, but one record we can't claim credit for is the record gold price, and in recent days, passing through $2,500 an ounce. This is unprecedented territory. What is relevant for Northern Star investors is the opportunity against this record pricing backdrop to the significant leverage to the gold price that Northern Star offers, from simplicity of our gold-only portfolio with globally significant scale in the low-risk jurisdictions of Western Australia and Alaska.
While also offering a strategic advantage of organic, profitable growth as our diligent investments deliver returns today and into the future. We are pleased to present to you today on the records that are in our control and a result of our deliberate strategy to deliver on our purpose to generate superior returns for our shareholders. And with that context, I'd now like to hand to Ryan to go through the highlights.
Thanks, Stu, and good morning, all. I'm pleased to present to you our financial results for the year ending 30 June 2024. Firstly, to page four, which provides an overview of the key financial highlights achieved during the year. Being underlying EBITDA of AUD 2.2 billion, resulting in record cash earnings of AUD 1.8 billion. After our investment in growth capital, which is advancing our profitable organic strategy, the business generated AUD 462 million in underlying free cash flow. With that strength in our cash generation, a final unfranked dividend of AUD 0.25 per share has been declared, which is up 61% from the final FY 2023 dividend.
During the year, the company bought back AUD 45 million of its shares through its on-market share buyback program, and I'm pleased to announce today the company is extending its AUD 300 million share buyback program for a further 12 months. As illustrated on page 5, we remain well positioned to deliver on our profitable growth strategy with our strong balance sheet, which is in a net cash position of AUD 358 million at June. We have access to flexible long-term funding options with three investment-grade credit ratings, which is reflective of the strength of our business and the positive long-term outlook underpinned by the company's significant reserve-backed production profile. Our balance sheet strength supports our strategy and gives us flexibility through the cycle to fund opportunities that may arise to enhance our portfolio of assets to deliver long-term return, returns to shareholders. Turning to page 6.
I'm proud of our team for delivering our FY 2024 production and revised cost guidance in a year that has seen challenges. Gold sold was 1.62 million ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of AUD 1,853 per ounce. We are three years into our five-year profitable growth strategy with another great year of progress across all of our three production centers. Over to page seven now. This slide highlights the significant cash generated by the business during the year. The waterfall chart illustrates the contribution from each production center to the group's cash earnings for the year. Cash earnings for each production center is represented by the EBITDA generated minus the sustaining capital spent at that center. Corporate, technical, and exploration-related costs of AUD 127 million are deducted, as is the net interest costs and taxes paid of AUD 68.
The AUD 1.8 billion of residual capital, which is cash earnings, is available to deploy for capital management, growth-related investments, which meets our hurdle rates and balance sheet management. Pleasingly, all production centers contributed well, with Kalgoorlie, our largest center, comprising 64% of the group's cash earnings for the year. I'd like to point out a reconciliation of statutory NPAT to underlying EBITDA and cash earnings has been provided in the appendix of this presentation on page 21. Page 20 outlines the abnormal items to reconcile from statutory profit to underlying NPAT, and there is also a reconciliation of all-in sustaining cost to cost of sales on page 23. Over to page 8 now.
We are pleased to have doubled our return on capital employed year on year to 8.6%, which reflects progress in our profitable growth strategy and our focus on allocating shareholder funds to generate returns. This also highlights the strength of our FY 2024 underlying earnings before interest and tax, which is up 122% from the prior year to AUD 1.1 billion. Note, the company's return on capital employed did get impacted at the time of the merger due to the recognition of acquired assets at fair value as required under accounting standards. Now to page nine, which highlights EBITDA margins achieved for the group and each production center over the year. All three production centers performed strongly and achieved healthy EBITDA margins. Pleasingly, and as illustrated, contributions from all production centers improved significantly in the second half of the year.
Notably, Pogo's second half performance, lifting its EBITDA margin from 33% to 48% was achieved from higher physicals and productivity, with great optimization and stock ore contribution, a key focus area. Over to page ten now. The company is now three years into its five-year organic profitable growth strategy. Over this time, we've delivered major milestones, which are key in achieving our plans, including, during the year, access to Golden Pike North at KCGM, which unlocks the significant high-grade, long-term ore source, which is a key pillar that will provide increased free cash flow from the operation in the future. Thunderbox Mill delivering 6 million ton nameplate during Q4. Pogo's record performance also during Q4, where it achieved 91,000 ounces sold and generated 141 million of net mine cash flow in that quarter, and of course, solid progress at the KCGM mill expansion project.
Over the three financial years, from FY 2022 to FY 2024, which includes the progress we've made on our strategy and the capital investment undertaken, the operations have generated AUD 1.7 billion in cumulative free cash flow. As illustrated on page 11, the company continues its demonstrated history of returning funds to shareholders. Our final dividend of AUD 0.25 per share declared today, takes our total declared dividends of AUD 0.40 per share for the full year. This equates to a payout of 25% of full-year cash earnings. Including the FY 2024 final dividend, the company has returned AUD 1.8 billion in dividends to shareholders and bought back 172 million of its shares, totaling AUD 2 billion in returns over the history of the business, and we believe there is much more to come.
Page twelve sets out the key elements of how we deliver value and manage our capital allocation, which is through owning world-class assets in Tier One locations and applying our DNA of operational excellence to deliver value to our stakeholders. We do this in a safe and responsible way with a demonstrated track record. Our portfolio of long-life assets and their locations provides us with flexibility and optionality to extract value and employ capital prudently to where the best returns can be generated, and as a foundation, we maintain a strong balance sheet, which enables the execution of our strategic framework through the cycle. I will now hand back to Stu to finish the presentation.
Thanks, Ryan. Turning to slide 13. Northern Star has completed the first year of a three-year build for the KCGM Mill Expansion project, which will see the plant throughput increase to 27 million tons per annum and to average 900,000 ounces of gold sold from FY 2029. This will position KCGM as a top five global goldmine. The project remains on time and within budget. As provided in the KCGM site visit presentation on fourth of August, I would like to draw your attention to the CapEx guidance provided for FY 2025, 2026, and 2027, and the total CapEx of AUD 1.5 billion remains unchanged and includes 10% contingency. Slide 14. KCGM expansion progress activity was witnessed firsthand by many analysts and investors during the site visit this month. I'm pleased to say that all critical path enabling works are completed.
Major civil foundation works are underway, as can be seen in these pictures, and we expect major equipment to arrive during this financial year. Slide fifteen reiterates our FY twenty-five operational guidance. Please note that the first quarter will be our softest quarter for the year, with planned major shuts across all of our sites' processing plants. Pogo has completed its major works and is expected to deliver around fifty thousand ounces for the September quarter. For the year, our production is forecast to be second half weighted, driven by increasing grades at KCGM and increased milling throughput at TBO and Pogo. Slide sixteen. Our FY twenty-five growth capital and exploration guidance is set out in the table, and we have provided additional financial guidance for D&A per ounce and the group's estimated effective tax rate for FY twenty-five.
Now, as previously flagged, the company is not expected to pay tax for the Australian operations until the second half of FY 2025, and therefore, this will see any anticipated potential dividends to be unfranked for at least the next six months. On slide 17, Northern Star's exploration program remains a highly attractive approach to value creation, to support our purpose to deliver superior shareholder returns. For the year ending March 2024, our cost of resource addition is a compelling AUD 31 an ounce. We are in the enviable position where we have nearly 21 million ounces of ore reserves, 61 million ounces of mineral resources, which corresponds to a minimum of ten-year reserve-backed production profile.
On slide 18, thanks to our team's continuing focus on safety, we maintain an industry-leading safety performance, and we are proud to have today released our annual reporting suite of publications, which can be found on our website. I encourage you to access these for further understand the significant value our company delivers to employees and community stakeholders throughout our business activities. Now I'd like to pass to the moderator for questions. Thank you.
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question comes from Kate McCutcheon from Citi. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, Stu and Ryan. Congrats on the results. Extending the buyback, as you say, the average price you purchased at has been AUD 8.85 a share. Do we think about that extension as extending the optionality rather than something that we should count on, just given where the share price is and everything else that's going on?
We're just highlighting that historic price is probably not relevant to where we're sitting right now. I think what is relevant to you know our capital management, what we're doing with CapEx into our projects, you can see you know we're dividend paying. We've got a pretty clear policy on you know 20%-30% of cash earnings, and we know where we've grown with production. I think the benefit really is where gold price sits, and there's opportunity there with surplus cash to utilize in this way, so I think that's just prudent why we extended the period because we still had some remaining you know allocation, I guess, for that AUD 300 million, and that's probably the way to look at it.
We've got other things we can see where cash proceeds may be returned to us early, so there's opportunities there to utilize that.
Okay, that makes sense. Guidance for this year, I know we got it at the quarter, but the Kalgoorlie, that AUD 600 million, AUD 550 million-AUD 600 million being spent outside the mill expansion, how do I think about that split for KCGM? Because I think I have to go back some time to find a split of how much is being spent on stripping versus the underground. Is there sort of any color you can give around this year?
Yeah, I think it should be in the site visit presentation in August, and on - it's off the chain. It's probably, Kate, 30% underground. I mean, you've got probably another f- and then 40% the open pit, and then, you know, the infrastructure around that obviously builds up to the, you know, the full 100%. So that's probably the way I think about it. But there's details in the quarterly on it.
Okay, that is helpful. I will go back. Then finally, the D&A steps up this year from 700-ish to about 775-785. What is the driver for that? Or if we were to look at last year's rates versus this year, what are the key sites to go back and have a look at, I guess?
It depends on, you know, they, they're all obviously advertising at different rates. Depends on, yeah, it depends on the mix of production. Obviously, we're increasing ounces, as well. And then obviously we've put capital to work into our balance sheet, if you like, too, so that's unwinding. So it's just a reflection of those three things: production mix, more ounces, and obviously more balance sheet being unwound.
Yeah. Thank you, Ryan.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Mitch Ryan, from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Stu and Ryan. Stu, just in your comments there, you said that there's some potential capital coming back earlier. I assume you're referring to your convertible funding agreement with Osisko. Just understanding that you can elect it. It's a Northern Star election, once there's been a change of control, you can either go into common shares or a stake in the asset, Windfall. Are we to read into that you would prefer to elect to go into shares versus a project stake, or how are you thinking about that convertible at this point in time?
Yeah, so that, that is the value that I was considering. You know, on the normal course of the debenture, it would've been December twenty-five. So we just expect with what's transpired, that that would likely come back earlier and be made whole. So there's options there, but ultimately, you know, I guess we explained what our interest was in that in the early days and why we were there. At the moment, we just see an opportunity that that will be returned to us early.
Okay, perfect. Thank you. And my second question, there was AUD 65 million spent on tenement acquisitions during the year. Just can you provide some detail around where that spend is being directed? I.e., is it at greenfield territory for Northern Star, or is it for potential satellite deposits around existing infrastructure?
No, it was the tenements we bought around Jundee from Strickland, Mitch, which we, I think we settled early Q1 this year. That's the main purchase this year.
Okay, perfect. Thank you. That's it for me.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Al Harvey, from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Yeah, morning, team. Just another one on the buyback, I guess. Just trying to get a sense, I guess, given it's been used fairly sparingly for the last 12 months, outside the start of FY 2024 and a few days in late June, just, yeah, trying to get a bit more color on how you're thinking about deploying it. Is there some kind of valuation function you looked at? And I suppose just to add to that, I mean, with your divs still being unfranked for at least the next six months, how does that change the way you're thinking about capital returns?
Yeah, good question, Al. Look, all those things are relevant, so absolutely on a valuation basis, but, more on a returns of that, of that applied capital basis. So you see the options we have, the organic options, the capital, you know, leading up to that, to the middle of the year when we were allocating, capital for FY twenty-five, and the re- and valuing the returns on those. You know, these are, these are all just a suite of assets, a suite of tools that you can utilize, for, for shareholder returns. So dividend's pretty clear, unaffected by growth capital, because it's cash earnings, it isn't affected by that. And then we look at, obviously, modest gold prices on our forecasts.
We enjoy, you know, higher gold prices, we get some surplus cash, we can utilize that through instruments like the buyback. So all those things come into play. It's not a set and forget, but it will remind us that it's, you know, the ability to turn it on and off. There's blackouts as we're reporting, and just, you know, normal course of business. So, you know, it's there as a tool. I think we've got some great value in utilizing it to date, and it was important that we extended it, so it exists and it's, we're able to utilize it.
Yeah, thanks, Stuart. That's all for me. Cheers!
Thank you. Your next question comes from Hugo Nicolaci from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Morning, Stuart, Ryan, and team. Thanks for the update this morning. First one, just a two-parter on capital management. Just obviously, the current gold pricing environment and business looks pretty well positioned to fund the capital spend pipeline you've outlined, as well as still moving increasingly into net cash and growing that liquidity position. So obviously, a few questions already on the buyback, but you know, first part of the question: how do you think about growing capital returns over the medium term versus keeping capital for other opportunities? And the second part of the question, you know: do you still see room for additional assets in the portfolio? And I'll come back on the line. Thanks.
Yeah, go, Ryan.
I was gonna say that, I mean, the capital return piece, Hugo, I mean, I guess it's all the effort and work, you know, we're, as I said in the, in the talk, you know, we're three years in. All the effort is around growing earnings, growing returns. And we think because of the optionality we have organically, we think that's the best thing to do, and that's what we're doing. So if you talk about, well, how are we growing returns? You know, those things I spoke about around access to Golden Pike North, you know, getting Thunderbox consistently at that six million ton, optimizing Pogo, those are the things that we see as providing those capital returns. And then, of course, on top of all that is the mill expansion.
So that's how, that's how we're doing it. And then I don't know, Stu, do you wanna talk to the-
Yes.
To the fourth, fifth?
Yeah. So I think we've-- we're showing we're, we're, as a mature business, and particularly given we're net cash, you know, the growth we've set out over five years takes five years. That's what a five-year strategy is. We've got that two million ounce target. We've also got Fimiston expansion that comes in on the back of that, and you've seen the sort of allocated capital. The returns that we can get from that double-digit IRRs is really compelling, and we're, we're committed to doing those things. The dividend on cash earnings, you know, we're four hundred and sixty-plus million in cash returns. It's unfranked, of course, so, you know, efficiency for shareholders as well. We're considering the balance of that.
You know, historically, we have done special dividends, and I think Ryan highlighted, company life to date, we've returned nearly AUD 1.8 billion through dividends, and a couple hundred million, you know, close to on buyback, so nearly AUD 2 billion returned to shareholders in that fashion. Exploration, you know, adding AUD 31 a resource ounce, you know, we've upped our exploration budget this year to AUD 200 million, and we've got very exciting projects to advance with the drill bit across all of our operations, so that's really compelling returns for investors there. And then we're enjoying, you know, the gold price with a bit of surplus, and we're not having to service, you know, net debt, so we've got net cash.
So that's where this buyback is, you know, we can enjoy it, and we can utilize it, because it's, you know, it's surplus. So we think about all these things. It's not trading one off against the other. We certainly look to maximize the returns of the application of that capital. You know, we're not afraid of giving it back, which we've done before, but also asking for it. So there's a balance to this, but I think we've been very consistent with the approach of our capital management over the years.
Thanks, guys. So I interpret that then around portfolio sizing, that kind of on a five-year view, you're seeing a lot of opportunity organically in the portfolio, so not necessarily looking to add new assets?
Yeah, well, we've said we've always looked out five, and, you know, we've got a ten-year reserve back to life. We've always talked about that happy place of migrating down the cost curve, so the 1.8-2.2 million ounces per annum, 3-5 assets. But we've also told you how challenging it is to, you know, improve the portfolio through inorganic work. And we've also, you know, have such compelling organic opportunities that we continue to invest in. So, you know, you've seen the history and track record. That's what we're sticking to.
Great, that's clear. And then just one more on costs, if I can. I mean, obviously, great to see the top line growing with gold price, but, you know, typically across the sector, you tend to see costs creep up with that, where, you know, typically only part of that's coming from, you know, chasing lower grade tons that become viable. So can you just remind us of where you're seeing cost inflation in terms of labor versus equipment and consumables, and kind of what areas you maybe have a bit more control on that you can, I guess, help to keep those costs flat or even down potentially over the next twelve, twenty-four months?
Yeah, so I think we've definitely seen labor pressure come off a bit. We've seen stability of teams. We've seen, you know, new hires having skills coming from other sectors, and yeah, that stability which also converts through to just, you know, performance in safety, production, you know, efficiencies. We've also seen more competitive nature on procurement, supply, service contracts given maybe some excess of, you know, fleets and teams, so that'll come in, but then gold's taken another leg up, and we know it obviously attracts, you know, increased dollars, dollar millions with royalties and other things associated with it.
So, you know, we're enjoying some plateauing of costs, but as you know, you know, there's structural things that companies can decide to change, cut-off grades or take, you know, economic material at these levels. You can see our modest assumptions with our resource and reserve calculations, AUD 2,000-AUD 2,500 in resource and reserve calculations. There's a lot of headroom to spot price based on the economics and margins of those ounces that we're secured with. So I think staying still in cost profile will naturally migrate us down the cost curve. When you look at us on a global cost curve, we're doing very well building out and growing out our projects on economies of scale to keep our costs pretty flat.
So I think we're watching that closely, but just in the goldfields, we're certainly seeing some of that pressure come out.
Hugo, just to give a shout-out to our NSMS crew, Stu, they actually do significantly help. You know, we're not paying a margin out to contractors, obviously, with our owner-operated crew. That's the other thing that helps our business compete in this market.
Yeah, that, that's the element you say we're not, we're not price takers in that regard. The productivities we get from our owner teams, like NSMS, we also have great transparency and ability to flex and mobilize and drive productivities, and that fact basically translates into better unit costs for normal stuff.
Thanks for all that extra color. I'll pass it on.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Matthew Frydman from MST Financial. Please go ahead.
Yeah, sure. Thanks. Morning, Stu and Ryan. Can I ask, you ended the year with 385 million net cash. You've just talked pretty extensively about your capital management plan, and you're sort of kind of thinking about returning the excess. Can you remind us how you think about the limits around net debt or leverage? How you think about where the sweet spot is in terms of the balance sheet, and I guess what the sort of upper end of the range is in terms of working that balance sheet a little bit harder? That's the first part. And then secondly, Ryan highlighted the ROIC performance. Obviously, working the balance sheet harder will help drive that.
I'm sure I can find all the details somewhere in the annual report, but at a high level, can you remind us what the management incentives are that are aligned to ROIC? Thanks.
Management incentives aligned to ROIC, there aren't any. Other than obviously trying-
Yeah.
Trying to get it as high as we can, Matt.
Okay, that's, that's a simple one. Thanks, Ryan.
Look, back to the-
In terms of the sweet spot on the balance sheet?
To put clarity on that, historically, what there were ROI, ROIC metrics, but where TSR are TSR with also some sustainability metrics is where the team's aligned with shareholders. I think that's clear, and that's in our publications, in our annual report. Yeah, I don't think there's any disconnect from alignment of management and shareholders.
No, I wasn't suggesting it was a disconnect. Obviously, you know, if you can improve ROIC performance, one way to do that is working the balance sheet harder. So yeah, in terms of the, I guess how you think about the upper limits of whether it's a gross net debt, sorry, you know, a absolute net debt figure or a leverage figure, how do you think about that? Thanks.
Yeah, so Matt, so on page five, we sort of outline our targets around leverage and gearing, which I think are reasonably conservative. They keep us in an investment-grade rating. Do we want to go outside those targets? Maybe occasionally if there's an opportunity that we feel as though we should, and it's compelling. As long as we see a you know, a pathway to get back into those ranges, that's where we want to be. I you know, over the time I've been here, the balance sheet has been absolutely the pillar to allow the business to grow and do the things it's needed to do. It is very important to our strategy.
I think it's an important point you've raised, because if we increase leverage and we ended up net debt, those metrics improve. It doesn't mean that the business is better or, you know, the risks are less. And I think when you comp against peers that have net debt and are levered, you might think, oh, they don't have lazy balance sheets, or they're working their balance sheets harder, and all those metrics look more impressive. It's due to our deliberate actions and involvement that we actually have no net debt, have retired debt. We've used debt provably throughout acquisitions over the journey. We've generated returns from that. We've returned share to shareholders through dividends, buybacks, reinvested in growth, and still are building cash.
What should be highlighted is that that is the health of a very, very good business. And ROIC is one element, whereas if you increase your liabilities, then obviously the denominator shrinks and the ROIC goes up. It's I just wouldn't comp us to other peers, gold peers, particularly on that metric. I'd just say year on year showing it's working, and those will improve. Remembering, obviously, pre-merger, those were, you know, 20% to 30% return on equity, return on invested capital based on, you know, low acquisition prices. The roll-up of the valuation of Saracen to balance sheet is what kind of broke the denominator.
But again, this is about the trajectory or the improvement year on year on year, showing that our strategy is robust and works and is good for shareholders. So, liquidity on a size, you know, we're a AUD 17 billion company, so having strong liquidity is a great buffer and insurance policy for all our shareholders to... We've got assets that survive through the cycles. We've got investments we've committed to. We've got a modest hedge book that protects some of those returns. These are all just, you know, it's a good problem to have. We're not about to just go and get leverage for leverage sake to improve one index. It's about using, you know, that lens of the returns.
Yeah, got it. Thanks. Thanks, Stu, and thanks, Ryan. And I guess the other part of it is understanding those balance sheet targets, which obviously allows investors to get a sense of what you might consider to be excess in terms of capital returns. Maybe just one final one quickly. You guys have, as a business, have obviously been somewhat shielded by the, I guess, the cash tax benefit post the merger. It seems like reading the commentary that you expect probably in six months' time to be sort of paying more, a more material amount of cash tax. Would that be a fair assessment?
Is there anything that we need to sort of think about in terms of cash tax catch up or, or yeah, how do you expect the year will play out in terms of cash tax commitments? Thanks.
Yeah, thanks, Matt. It's a good question. Agree, we have been fortunate these last three years of not paying tax. So I guess, look, there's a little bit on the balance sheet there. So you'll see there's probably AUD 20 million of what we think will be a catch-up payment for this year. That's gonna happen in Q3. And then, as you rightly pointed out, that's gonna kick us then in to start paying tax again. So I'm thinking it's gonna be... It'll probably be in Q4, maybe AUD 40-50 million. Like, you know, we've still got to get through all the returns on these things, but it will be tens of millions, I guess, in that fourth quarter.
So I'm sort of thinking for the full year, between AUD 50 million-AUD 70 million in tax, which includes that catch-up payment. And then, of course, we'll be, you know, starting to pay again, and that'll kick on until again we do the next tax return. So there will be this slight tick-up in tax payments as we become, you know, tax payable as a business throughout the next few years.
Yeah, so just also to reiterate how that translates into realizable returns, cash earnings is reduced by the cash tax paid. But given that the policy sits as, you know, 20%-30% of dividend to cash earnings, it'll also come with a franking related to the tax cash. So there's a balancing there that says cash earnings are reduced by tax paid. It also comes with a franking credit that comes with it.
Yeah, got it. Thanks. That's very, very helpful guidance, gents. So thanks for that. That's all from me.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Daniel Morgan, from Barrenjoey. Please go ahead.
Oh, hi, Stu and Ryan. Just a question on the ops, if I may. I know this is financial result, but just ops. At the end of the fiscal year, you know, key items outstanding from an operational perspective was the Pogo mill motor replacement, as well as rectifications at Thunderbox. I'm just wondering if you can make some comments about... Or how, has the Pogo mill motor been replaced? I presume it has, and that project's been delivered and working well, and, where's Thunderbox at? Thank you.
Yeah, thanks. So Pogo's mill motor has been replaced and is being turned on. So we're in that ramp-up commissioning phase right now, and obviously, we've guided that quarter one at Pogo will likely be around that fifty thousand ounces. So the work was completed, primarily in the back of July into August and is complete. And then, TBO, we obviously, the exit rate in quarter four was at that six million ton per annum run rate. We still have some planned work occurred at TBO, so again, a second half weighted. But we're very... Yeah, we have visibility of what we need to do, and we, you know, stick by our guidance. Our guidance is considering all those impacts, and I think that's been digested, where, why we put our guidance.
We do reiterate that quarter one is our softest quarter and potentially outside of the rails off, the average, you know, run rate throughout that guidance, which just means, you know, the next three quarters of the second half is, you know, a really good springboard to launch in FY twenty-six.
Thank you. And, yeah, just back to tax. Is there a simple way for the investment community to think about the difference between the financial outcomes you report to us and then the, you know, the tax accounts, just so that we can effectively model the tax paid calculations through good gold prices and bad? Like, is there some sort of D&A difference that you could simplify for us in the market? Thank you.
Thanks, Dan. Look, how can I say it? So, you know, we obviously, you know, the balance sheet's been changed a lot since the merger. Obviously, we had this tax shield. We're coming back now into being tax payable, as I mentioned, and Matt sort of asked the question. Look, going out, it, you know, we pay when we come back into tax paying, we will pay on a percentage of our revenue, and then again, you know, we do all the work to a tax return, just like everyone does, and then we true it all up, and then that changes it next year as well, up or down. So probably what I'd add, again, we've got to do the work, so I think it's just for a guide.
I'd be thinking that the next calendar year is gonna be. You know, once we start paying, so I'm gonna say from Q4 2025 to then the, you know, the first three quarters of 2026, I'd say, it's probably gonna be in the range of 3%-4% of our revenue, I guess, would be the tax we pay. Now, then, when we do our return, it might well be that, "Oh, actually, no, it's 2.5% of revenue should have been, or, you know, 3.5%." So there's gonna be this lumpiness, Dan, for the next few years until we get into a, you know, consistent sort of tax-paying period. So-
Part of that calculation, the second part is jogging it forward, the actual timing of the cash payment, jogging it forward maybe six to 12 months.
Yeah.
on the returns timeline. So yeah.
... Yeah, thank you. Thank you very much, for your perspectives.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Ben Lyons from Jarden. Please go ahead.
Thanks. Good day, Stu. Just a really simple one from me this morning. I'm just wondering how the record gold price is currently influencing your approach at the operating level, given you made some comments earlier in the call about, you know, the industry's propensity to drop cut-off grades in good times, which obviously extends the life of the operations, but leads to cost inflation. You know, the margin typically stays there or thereabout, and shareholders never really get those supernormal returns for the higher commodity price. So just interested in your current perspectives about how the gold price is influencing your approach at the operations. Thank you.
Yeah, thanks, Ben. So look, it doesn't change. We use it obviously to test back to say what's the impacts, but we've already done those sensitivities both up and down in all of the financial decisions that we've made, and the investment decisions only look better because we've done them typically and approved them at much lower pricing. So what it's doing is actually it's compressing payback periods, and therefore, you know, our cash growth and expansion is occurring earlier. So when we're looking forward in future years saying, well, you know, some questions are probably early on the call, you know, we're ahead of investors see that as cash returns. We look at, okay, well, does that compress your life asset plan of turning on projects because they become self-funding?
Equally, if you know, projects don't deliver on time, budget, or, you know, prices deplete, those other things don't start. You know, you wait till you have it before you spend it. So that's the only thing, is the rate at which our organic profile, you know, contracts or accelerates. There's no kind of additions as far as, you know, now that's economic or not, without a secondary behavior like locking in a hedge related to the returns of a project. We have not dusted off and looked at any of those type of things.
What does happen across the gold sector generally is those mines that were binary that need this price to be open, they potentially turn on, which then competes with, you know, our labor or resources that we already have deployed, and then that puts in, you know, cost pressure back across us. So they're not decisions that we make, but we know at this gold price, there's a lot of things around Kalgoorlie that suddenly become economic and companies start doing activity with. And it might even just mean drill rigs. You know, for us to deliver on a AUD 200 million exploration budget, suddenly all the drilling fleet get reapplied to go and look for stuff because it's suddenly worth more.
That's the type of pressure that comes, as well as natural stuff like, you know, state ad valorem royalty that comes, you know, dollar millions increases with gold price lift. So yeah, we certainly aren't changing. We never change our behaviors based on that blip. We make sure that we, you know, utilize and stack the cash up whilst it's we can enjoy that. But if it stays up for a long time, costs, as we know, do trend, you know, to that sort of 70%, 60-70% of gold price. Gold, you know, costs tend to trend up there because of the genuine behavior across the gold sector. There's nothing wrong with that, because it's making good margins and good cash.
I guess the feedback we get from investors is costs should go flat or down as price goes up, and margins should be expanded and returned to shareholders. It's not always the case.
No, no, no, thanks very much. Appreciate that color. I guess the nature of the question was around some of the historical behavior of Northern Star, probably prior to your tenure, at assets like Jundee, for example, and probably analogous to Pogo as well, where maybe in a higher gold price environment, the temptation to take some lower grade ounces was always prevalent. You know, you'd see lower grades reporting from some of those undergrounds, and hence the higher costs and lower margins. That was the nature of the question. Hope you're not sort of suffering that current temptation to go after some of the lower grade stuff in the higher gold price environment.
The thing is, if you're mill-constrained, you're trying to put in the best material you have. So places like Pogo, you know, you've picked some structural cut-off grades, and you've built your mine plan around that. You can't change that, you know, on a whim. The difference is if, you know, Jundee was a classic. 50% of the ounces were mined outside of reserves, and you're basically driving past gold to get to gold. And it was economic, and it was, you know, whatever grade it was, it was still very profitable, and it one, it didn't deplete your mine plan and your reserve life, but it was very profitable because it was incremental on the capital you already sunk, and you had mill capacity, chuck it in on top.
So the average grade went down, but overall ounces went up, and overall cash generation went up, albeit AISC went up with it. So what, something has to give, right? I could shrink our ounce profile by half and crunch our AISC and increase our percentage margin, but it wouldn't be a better business. You have shorter mine lives, higher percentage in margin, but you'd be destroying these multimillion-ounce quality assets. And so we're having to think now past a decade of these assets and longevity, and you look at KCGM as the point, decimal points on grade make a massive difference. They'll make a massive difference to the pit strip ratios of material we're actually moving anyway, and the economics on a 27 million ton per annum plant-...
That stockpile, there's nearly three million ounces there at point six seven grams per ton, and there'll be material coming out of the pit floor that would typically be called waste at the chosen gold price, but at today's spot price, you know, it's generating very good cash margins. So I wouldn't criticize companies for being agile and nimble to utilize this spot market and sell into it. If there are structural changes in their behavior, expecting that this price lasts forever, that's pretty poor, but I think people should be they should be acting a little bit differently in this environment to generate the cash.
Okay. Thanks, Stuart. That's really helpful, and please don't take it as a criticism, just a, just a simple question, but thank you very much for your perspectives.
Thanks, Ben.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Anthony Barich, from S&P Global. Please go ahead.
Yes, hello. Just major, you know, gold is an industry player. Just wondering, you know, what was your reaction to what the Feds did with submarines? Obviously, just with the... Well, I know a lot of our industry lobby groups have said things about, you know, you can get approvals from state and feds, and then all of a sudden, something could just happen at a federal level. Does that give you any kind of concern around, you know, sovereign risk for Australia and maybe what that might say about what a federal EPA might do?
Yeah, thanks, Anthony. I won't comment specifically on that. I think there's a lot of rhetoric out there around that circumstance. We don't rely on those, you know, I guess, approvals in that regard, like that. But, you know, if we chose to or if, you know, found greenfields things, you know, absolutely. Australia has a great track record and reputation for being a, you know, in mining, resources sense, you know, fantastic, stable place to invest. And every slow change like this just takes away some of that shine. And capital, the flight of capital has choice, so if Australia's not, you know, sitting up there as a, as a great jurisdiction to invest in, the capital goes to different countries.
And then ultimately, when we, you know, want the metals back that we need to decarbonize or have a, you know, more developed future, you'll pay more for it. So I think there just needs to be, you know, a bit of head come out and zoom out and see what the long-term play is, rather than sort of these ad hoc assessments that it feels like. So it comes back to Fraser Index, global investments for mining and resources. Australia has a very high ranking. It, you know, it, it's important to try to understand why that is, why it is, and how we preserve that to attract investment, in that case.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Jarrod Lucas from ABC News. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good morning, Stuart, Ryan. Just with that, environment and social responsibility report out today, I was just curious how you feel you're tracking towards your emissions reduction target? That's 35% by 2030.
Thanks, Jarrod. Yeah, look, we're pleased with the progress. We've got some great installations, you know, solar fields up in the Yandal, and new wind turbines, you know, erected and in operational. So, you know, very happy with those hard installs that are contributing, and we've got a very clear mapped out path over the next few years to tangibly make a dent on that primary energy generation and decarb in that regard. Kalgoorlie comes... It's a big one, so it comes soon. A lot of the advanced, you know, studies and work are occurring on a solution for Kalgoorlie in line with the expanded Fimiston Mill.
So yeah, I'm very happy with 35% reduction by 2030, and then obviously net zero by 2050 is our, you know, goal.
And the expressions of interest period was ongoing when we were on site earlier this month. Is that concluded now for the Kalgoorlie Renewable Project?
No, no, there's still gonna be some time to go through all the options, and as you can imagine, there's options aplenty to review there. And it's, you know, a pretty significant project for the region, so it'll take us some time.
Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.
Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Tonkin for closing remarks.
Great. Thanks for everyone for joining us on the call today, and I look forward to updating you as we continue to advance our profitable organic growth strategy. Have a good day. Thank you.