Thank you for standing by and welcome to the Nufarm Limited First Half 2022 Results. All participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question-and-answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Greg Hunt, CEO. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Noah, and good morning, everyone. Welcome and thank you for joining us today. Before we start today's presentation, I'd just like to draw your attention to the disclaimer on page two, particularly the section on forward-looking statements. I'm joined today by our CFO, Paul Townsend, and Brent Zacharias is our Group Executive, NuSeed, who many of you would know, and he's joining us from Canada and will speak to the Seed Technologies result. It's a very strong result for Nufarm, with earnings up on all of our key measures. We have performed exceptionally well as we have capitalized on strong industry conditions while managing global uncertainty and volatility. We have clearly benefited from favorable seasonal conditions and higher grain prices. However, we're also reaping the rewards of our transformation and performance improvement program over recent years.
Our deeper and broader focus on core Crops and key geographies is delivering better returns from our Crop Protection business. Our Seed Technologies business continued to see revenue growth in the core Seeds portfolio and continued to hit major milestones in our Omega-3 and Carinata growth platforms. The outlook for Nufarm remains positive, with industry trends and conditions highly favorable for growth. There's a fundamental need for more food to meet the needs of a growing population, and Nufarm plays a part in this objective. The outlook for the remainder of this year is also positive, and I will discuss that further later in the presentation. Our financial performance speaks for itself. Revenue up 31% to AUD 2.2 billion and underlying EBITDA up 41% to AUD 330 million. This result has allowed us to declare an interim dividend of AUD 0.04 per share.
Our balance sheet is strong, which Paul will expand on shortly. In essence, a very strong interim financial result. The strong result is not just about market conditions. It has been about our ability to navigate the current economic climate, introduce and advance new products, and to deliver on milestones. It is despite pressure due to higher raw material prices, global supply chain, and logistics challenges. Our decision, as an example, to establish a procurement hub in China five years ago, has helped us secure supply for our customers despite backlogs arising from COVID-related port closures and logistics challenges. The investments that we have made in our supply and manufacturing sites are delivering real benefits to our business and our ability to reliably supply our customers. In Ukraine, our number one priority has been to support our people.
We have taken a prudent provision against assets held there within the range previously guided. Importantly, we continue to forge ahead, advancing our product and our technology pipelines. Our Crop Protection pipeline remains strong, with over 150 registrations or expansions of label uses granted during the half. Along with the new product introductions discussed at our Investor Day in February, this demonstrates the health of our pipeline and underpins our revenue aspirations. Our investment in Value Beyond Yield is developing new plant-based Technologies. The growth in the Seeds business, the Carinata agreement with bp, and repeat sales of Omega-3 canola to our customers in Chile support the growth aspirations in our five-year plan. The high-yield bond refinance was also completed during the half, further improving our balance sheet and saving $9.8 million in interest annually.
Our business segments all performed impressively, given the prevailing market and regulatory conditions. The combined result validated our diversity strategy, a strategy that seeks to minimize risk and maximize returns. Despite the revenue impacts of product deregistrations of EUR 26 million, Europe delivered a very solid result in line with the strong result that we achieved last year. This further demonstrates the value of the acquired portfolio, which contributed 42% of the gross margin in our branded business. Seed Technologies saw strong demand across the portfolio. Growth in the core Seeds business continued the momentum that we established in financial year 2021 with the release of new hybrid varieties.
We have also continued to hit key milestones in both our Omega-3 canola and Carinata biofuel feedstocks, which Brent will talk to shortly. This slide shows the drivers of revenue and earnings growth, with three of our business segments contributing to significant uplift in both revenue and earnings. As I said at the outset, we have benefited from seasonal conditions across all regions. However, the strategic initiative, the initiatives that we have implemented over the past few years have helped drive the earnings growth. I'll come back to the outlook later, but, now I'd like to hand over to Paul to discuss our financial performance.
Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. The excellent financial result for the half were underpinned by strong demand for our Crop Protection and Seed products and increased revenues as a result of favorable commodity prices and trading conditions across all regions. 31% revenue increase includes sales of AUD 183 million, I'm sorry, AUD 76 million in the first half of 2021 at zero margin through Sumitomo Chemical Latin America under the transitional services agreement. Underlying EBITDA was up 41% at AUD 330 million, and underlying EBIT increased 66% to AUD 222 million. Underlying financing costs decreased due to the impact on the refinancing of the U.S. dollar high yield bond notes, together with reduced foreign exchange losses, offset by unfavorable foreign exchange translation on foreign currency denominated interest.
We expect full year interest expense to be around AUD 50 million compared with AUD 58 million in the prior corresponding period, reflecting the lower interest on the refinanced U.S. dollar notes. This, of course, is contingent on A dollar, US dollar exchange rate movements. Foreign currency exchange losses decreased despite currency volatility, particularly in Eastern Europe. We are seeing the benefits of targeted foreign exchange currency risk mitigation initiatives, including expanding the hedging program and recapitalizing subsidiaries and allowing them to reduce their local currency exposure. Depreciation and amortization expense increased AUD 9 million or 9% to AUD 108 million due to increased amortization of European products that have been phased out and Seed Technologies IP product commercialization. Full year depreciation and amortization is expected to be materially in line with last year.
Our underlying effective tax rate of 31% is now where we expect to settle over the medium term and is consistent with the full year effective rate in 2021. The average net working capital to sales ratio sits at 27%, well below Nufarm's target of 35%-40%, and an improvement of 8 percentage points half-o n- half. This illustrates how we've been able to drive down absolute net working capital relative to the large increase in sales. Pleasingly on the back of the excellent earnings, net debt and leverage improved half- on- half. While our free cash flow is negative for the half, this is largely due to the seasonal buildup in working capital, which we expect to unwind in the second half, resulting in a positive free cash flow outlook for the year.
The positive earnings and cash flow outlook, together with our current loan leverage of 1.1 times, has enabled the directors to declare the interim dividend of AUD 0.04 per share. This dividend has been declared in the context of Nufarm's new capital management principles, which will guide our application and allocation of free cash flow. These principles are in the appendices. We remain disciplined in our expense management to ensure increases are aligned to support our growth agenda. As the chart shows, the increases relate to increased spend on headcount and other costs associated with our growth initiatives across Crop Protection and Seed Technologies. Increased selling and distribution costs were due to predominantly logistics rate increases and third-party sales commissions. The increase in employee incentive provisions associated with the strong outlook for earnings. Increase in depreciation and amortization expense.
Increased travel as we transition out of COVID restrictions. Increase in insurance due to market-related increases and CPI increases in staff costs. The next chart illustrates or reconciles our underlying EBITDA to free cash flow. Just as a reminder, free cash flow is the cash flow derived by the business before any distribution to shareholders. Obviously, EBITDA and net working capital are dominant contributors to this bridge. In terms of working capital, the key driver to the outflow is the seasonality of the business and relates predominantly to the increase in receivables due to higher sales over this period. This seasonality has been exacerbated by the increased skew of revenues in the first half and pricing. Net working capital position is expected to unwind in the second half with positive free cash flow generation for the full year expected.
Accordingly, the average net working capital to sales ratio is a more relevant metric to assess net working capital management, as it is a rolling twelve-month calculation. As can be seen on the chart, this ratio continues to improve and is now at 27%, well below our target range of 35%-40%. While this is an excellent outcome for Nufarm, the focus on net working capital will continue, and we'll need to be balanced on ensuring continuity of supply, given the global logistics and supply chain challenges and optimizing our commercial relationship with our customers. In terms of inventory and payables management, the supplier financing facility utilization further increased during the half, largely due to raw material price increases. This facility remains an important element in strengthening Nufarm's relationship with key Chinese raw material suppliers, which assists in securing product supplies in the current tight market conditions.
Tax and interest payments of AUD 18 million and AUD 40 million were as forecast, while CapEx investment of around 60 million is down on expectations due to lower property plant equipment investment at Wyke, due to timing related matters influenced by COVID-19 challenges. To arrive at a net cash flow number for the group, ordinary dividend payments of AUD 15 million and payments under the Nufarm Step-Up Securities around 5 million needs to be deducted. Turning to the balance sheet. As you can see, net debt and leverage improved half-on-half. Leverage is at 1.1 times on a rolling twelve-month basis, which is lower than our core leverage target of 1.5-2 times, including leases, and is expected to be less than 1 time for the full year.
The company maintains very strong liquidity, with undrawn facilities at March 31 of around AUD 550 million and around AUD 460 million of cash balances. Finally, the high-yield bond refinancing will deliver ongoing annualized interest savings of $9.8 million, as Greg alluded to earlier. The full monthly savings run rate occurring from March 2022 following the transition to the new arrangements. I'll now hand you back to Greg.
Thanks, Paul. Looking now at some detail on our Crop Protection business. Diversification of our product portfolio and geographical presence is a key mitigant to earnings volatility. Many of you will know that our portfolio is weighted towards herbicide products that growers need year in and year out, and is complemented by a lower proportion of higher-margin insecticide and fungicide products, for which demand can be more volatile. As you have heard us say at the Investor Day in February, we are investing in differentiated higher-margin products which complement our portfolio of foundational lower-margin products, both of which are important to our growth aspirations. In terms of geographical diversity, we retain a strong presence in the key markets where we believe that we can be relevant to our customers and generate good cash returns for our shareholders.
Our ambition for growth from the Seed Technologies business we outlined in February will add to the diversification of income streams in the coming years. Turning now to the geographical regions, APAC had a very strong year. Last year, we were asked if it was as good as it gets, and this result clearly shows that that hasn't been the case. Higher revenues, improved margins, and lower selling, general and administration costs delivered a 45% increase in EBITDA. This region comprises our businesses in Australia, New Zealand, the Croplands spraying equipment business here in Australia, Indonesia, and our operations in Malaysia, which support sales into other Southeast Asian countries. Our China joint venture also sits within this segment. Australia and New Zealand are important markets to us.
They are our home base, and we have a leading position in these markets. The restructuring in the APAC region over the last five years, in which we've closed five factories, consolidated two brands into one, and removed costs from the back office, continued to deliver synergies which will and continue to benefit the bottom line. With the reset of our manufacturing footprint and back office complete, we have now turned our focus to our portfolio growth. We launched a number of targeted products for the domestic market in financial year 2021. As an example, Terrad'or, which is a new and proprietary herbicide, highly active against key broadleaf and grass weeds that are resistant to glyphosate. Saracen, another herbicide, when mixed with our phenoxy products, creates a differentiated solution which is active on difficult to control weeds in cereal Crops.
Each of these contributed positively to the first half result. As outlined at our Investor Day in February, we're also working with local institutions such as the CSIRO and the University of Queensland to develop products to support Australian growers, and we expect these products to be commercialized in the next 2-3 years. While we will be impacted by seasonal conditions from year to year, all of these products and innovations will provide a solid platform for growth. As I mentioned earlier, resetting the earnings base in Europe was a key priority for management in financial year 2021, and I'm very pleased to say that Europe has continued to deliver strong results. At our 2021 result, I said that in the near term, the existing portfolio is capable of sustaining the current earnings given normal seasonal conditions in spite of the regulatory headwinds, and this has transpired as expected.
While it's a solid result, there is more to do. We have invested heavily in this region over the past 3 years, and the current return is not sufficient for that investment. Despite EUR 26 million lost in sales from products that were de-registered during the period, Europe still saw a revenue increase of 6% and an earnings result exactly in line with the first half of 2021. We're generating higher sales from the acquired portfolios, and while it's becoming more difficult to split the earnings from these portfolios from the rest of the business, they contributed approximately 35% of the total gross margin and, as I said earlier, 45% of the branded business. Our North American business has had an excellent start to the year, with revenue growth of 49% and 167% uplift in EBITDA in U.S. dollar terms.
All parts of this segment recorded strong growth, with revenue up in Crop Protection in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, and it's really driven by strong corn and soybean prices, and market conditions drove significant demand. Turf and Ornamental business returned to more normal volumes with COVID restrictions easing, and we saw improved product mix and volume growth in all of the key segments of the business. The significant uplift in both earnings and margin reflect the benefit of the investments that we've made in domestic manufacturing capability in North America. Having a presence on the ground means we can supply locally as well as developing closer relationships with our customers. We have maintained their confidence throughout what has been a very difficult period for them in terms of supply. Continuing prudent and efficient management of expenses has also contributed to the expanded earnings margins.
We believe channel inventories in North America have been at relatively low levels, which reflects the global and domestic supply disruption that has impacted the entire industry this year. We have sufficient inventory on hand or on the water to meet the majority of our orders in the second half. I'll now pass over to Brent to discuss Seed Technologies. Thanks, Brent.
Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. As Greg mentioned, we continued revenue growth in the core Seeds portfolio and hit major strategic milestones in our omega-3 and carotenoid platforms. We are well on track to meet our strategic aspirations. Seed Technologies revenues were up 28%, and orders on Seed also up 24% in 2026. These are very strong results and reflect broad-based across the total business. Key growth drivers in our core Seeds business included strong sales of new hybrid canola varieties in Australia, South America, and Canada. Our newer varieties of sorghum continue to with higher sales in Brazil and USA, and there was increased demand for sunflower varieties in both North and South America. The first half also saw important milestones achieved in omega-3 and carotenoid. These results clearly validate NuSeed's value on the overall strategy.
NuSeed earnings continue to be strongly weighted to 2021, primarily driven by the timing of planting and harvesting for our Crops in respective geographies. Looking at our Omega-3 platform in a little more. During the first half, demand for salmon continues to grow. This helped drive increased orders for Aquaterra from existing salmon feed-producing customers, and Aquaterra is now established Seed input for the Chilean aquaculture market, with repeat orders and strong positive customer feedback. As the Aquaterra business continues to grow, we are also refining our supply chain and logistics capabilities, with the first shipping of oil. Our Omega-3 human nutrition product, Nutriterra, also progressed with several milestones in the past. FDA, the Food and Drug Administration, acknowledging it is a safe ingredient for food.
This, together with the earlier recognition of Nutriterra as a new dietary ingredient, is set to enhance our discussions with potential partners for the commercial launch of Nutriterra into human nutrition markets. We're also now contracting growers to meet our demand expectations into next. We're preparing for the launch of our second- generation. These hybrids expected to deliver a significant. We continue to see very positive demand in both markets. Our position as the leading global supplier of plant-based omega-3 places us in a strong position to capitalize on these opportunities. At the Investor Day in February, we shared additional key milestones and continued to focus on next steps, including customer expansion, scaling our operations, expanding our margins, and achieving further important market approvals as key outcomes for the next two to four years. Now, turning to our Carinata platform.
The highlight for the first half was the signing of our long-term strategic offtake and market development agreement with bp. We see this as a transformational development for this program and strong validation of NuSeed Carinata's potential as an advanced non-food, agricultural, Sustainable feedstock for biofuel production. The agreement for an initial 10-year term allows us to rapidly accelerate the development and expansion of our network of growers, channel, and supply chain partners to deliver Carinata oil to bp or its affiliates. We have commenced validation and development work in all four continents with Carinata this year, and we're expanding our production base in Argentina and Uruguay. Next, we'll be launching Carinata in hybrid Seed genetics, and intend to expand supply from our current base in Argentina and Uruguay in 2022.
Launch in the USA in 2023, followed by Brazil in 2024, while simultaneously advancing further product developments in Europe and Australia for future launch. Together with our Omega-3 oil and our strongly performing core Seeds portfolio, Carinata will be a key growth platform over the coming years. Thank you, and I'll hand it back to Greg.
Thanks, Brent. I realized that the audio may have been a little bit difficult for a part of your presentation, Brent, particularly the Omega-3 portion. It seemed to get a lot better when you talked about Carinata. I guess we'll get the chance in Q&A to maybe go back and just reaffirm some of those things that you talked about with Omega-3. In any event, I think some very encouraging developments over the past few months, which, as I said earlier, gives us, you know, continued confidence in the potential value of these Technologies as we've talked about in our five-year plan. Anyway, now sort of turning to the outlook.
As I said earlier, you know, the agricultural landscape continues to change, and there are significant mega trends that I think is worth reminding ourselves of that continue to reshape our industry. First major trend is the surge in demand for food that's expected over the next 30 years, driven by population growth. The next mega trend is the drive to extract more productivity from the same land while making sure that we continue to improve that land. Our industry, like many others, is also facing a powerful trend to a more Sustainable future. The need to limit our impact on the environment and improve our oceans, air, and soils is growing. Lastly, modern technology will help us find solutions to these issues, as well as generating new opportunities.
A reinvigorated Nufarm is at the center of this evolution, and the improvements that we've made to the business over the past five years, and the investments that we have made, position us well to capitalize on existing and emerging growth opportunities. At our Investor Day in February, we outlined our five-year growth aspirations in a lot more detail, and I'm pleased to reaffirm those ambitions. Sustainable annual revenue of AUD 4.6 billion by 2026, and Seed Technologies contributing around AUD 650 million in 2026 with very strong margins. We're well on the way to achieving this result and clearly excited about the future growth prospects. Nufarm will benefit from the shift to more Sustainable agricultural solutions.
We are enabling our growers to produce more from less, while providing products that help them adapt to climate change and minimize unintended environmental consequences. Innovation and technology will drive Nufarm's growth and sustainability. This slide showcases some of the innovations and Technologies that we are working on. As I said, you know, we provided some detail back in February. You know, I don't intend to go back through the detail today, but a key component of our strategy is to partner with and invest in like-minded organizations to advance our aspirations. Turning to the outlook. Going forward, industry conditions remain highly favorable. The outlook for grain prices remains positive, and favorable seasonal conditions in our regions are generating continued strong demand for Seed and Crop Protection products. We expect full-year earnings to be strong.
As I've previously said, the full-year results will be proportionally weighted to the first half, given the strength of forward sales driven by global uncertainty and volatility. While some easing of these favorable conditions is likely to occur in future periods, there are several factors that support our growth aspirations through seasonal cyclicality. Recent global issues, including the conflict in Eastern Europe, have increased awareness that Crop Protection is a vital component in ensuring global food security. This is encouraging agricultural production in other geographies and tightening global supply. Longer term, we believe the underlying dynamics of our key markets are strong and the opportunity before us is significant. The next phase of our growth and evolution has begun, and a large part of that is about innovation and technology.
The Technologies that we have invested in to meet the future needs of our industry will form the core growth, or the core of our growth engine. Thank you all and now happy to hand you back to Nia to take some questions.
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you are on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question comes from John Purtell with Macquarie Group. Please go ahead.
Oh, good morning. Can you hear us okay?
Yeah, fine. Thank you, John.
Thanks, Greg. Just had a couple. Thank you. Just in terms of the Europe result with the EUR 26 million sales impact, what was the profit impact related to that? I know that you obviously mentioned that I think it was a EUR 15 million profit impact you're expecting for the full year. Is that still sort of order of magnitude what you're expecting as a headwind?
It's pretty much. Morning, John. Paul Townsend here. The impact is about that AUD 15 million. That's the margin impact on the 2016. It's really only total or the direct cost most of the first half. That whole run-out is really in the first half because in the second half last year, we were already starting to experience some of that revenue reduction.
Got it. Thank you. Just the second one on North America, obviously a strong result there. Would you sort of characterize that as a bit of a catch up from last year? Obviously, seasonal conditions weren't ideal, but we still had drought this time in Canada. Do you see momentum continuing in the second half there? Because historically, it's actually been a bit more weighted to the second half or at least we saw that last year.
John, I think, you know, as I said earlier, low general inventories resulted in a very strong demand in sales in the first half, so resulting in pull forward sales. The season there is running a little late, you know, with dry conditions in the southern states of Texas. We've seen demand soften a little bit in April and May. I wouldn't expect at this stage to see the second half to be as strong as it was last year. You know, supply chain logistics mean supply will continue to be tight. You know, I just don't see it as strong this year as it was last year.
Got it. Just a final question for Brent. Question is sort of in terms of the key milestones that we should be looking for re Omega-3 and Carinata over the next 12 months.
Yeah, great. Thanks, John. I think in terms of next steps, I'll start with Omega-3. It may not come through. I guess we had some noise on the line as I was talking. Yeah, the next steps that we're really focused on is customer expansion beyond what we currently already have in Chile. Starting to scale our operations in terms of some of the efficiencies we can achieve as we get to greater volumes and resulting in expanded margins. Then also achieving further import market approvals as we seek to finish the rest of the regulatory approvals around the world. You know, I think those are probably the key nearby milestones for Carinata. Oh, sorry, for Omega-3.
In terms of Carinata, we're really focused now on expansion with the announcement of the bp deal. A lot of it is about supply expansion. You know, as I highlighted, it's we've got a very step-by-step plan in terms of launching now in multiple countries and scaling from those countries and then working with our value chain partners to deliver against that bp contract. I think the other thing that I'd maybe come back to, you know, in terms of, you know, looking at both those businesses plus the core Seeds businesses, you know, as we outlined in the Investor Day in February, you know, we have an aspiration to achieve AUD 600 million-AUD 700 million in revenues at 20%-25% EBITDA margins by 2026.
I would say that the progress that we're now seeing with all three of those platforms being in commercial phase and scale up that all three of those are really significant contributors to that aspiration. Hopefully that that's helpful for you there, John.
Thank you.
I think maybe John just add a little more, just around Omega-3 and the way that we're sort of thinking about that with, you know, the prior guidance, if you like, or information that we had given prior to COVID. This is the way that, you know, Brent and I have been thinking about it. If we really think about financial year 2022 as sort of a sell-out year for Omega-3, essentially, if you like, the inventory from calendar year 2020.
You know, we didn't plant a Crop in calendar year 2021, and in this year, calendar year 2022, the Crop that we're planting now, you know, we believe will meet the demand, if you like, the demand in calendar year 2023, and then in calendar year 2023, the acres that will be planted will really be determined based on the reforecast demand at that time, you know, which we would expect to have rebound from the COVID impacts and should be higher than 2021 and/or 2022, if that helps.
Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Evan Karatzas with UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi, Greg. You sort of touched on, and also, Brent, you sort of touched on the increase in global food security concerns. Has that had any impact or changes to, I guess, some of the European regulatory challenges that you've seen, I guess, over the last few years? Have you seen any change to that, you know, over the past, you know, three to four months, six months?
Yeah. Look, good question. Nothing that we can specifically point to. I mean, there's certainly some of the leaders of some of the European countries are saying, you know, that we may just have to review those objectives. As you know, the, you know, the Farm to Fork objectives, you know, haven't been legislated, and I just sort of remind everybody that the base for that was sort of the average of 2015, 2016, 2017. So there's a lot been achieved in, you know, over that last 5, 6, 7, 8 years. And I think, you know, again, the way that we think about that is, you know, we know what the impact is in this current financial year. We know we've got some more impacts next financial year.
Again, you know, the challenge is, you know, for the new portfolio and other product introductions really to be able to cover the revenue that we lose from, you know, those regulatory outs. Then we're really looking to 2024, 2025, 2026 when we've got, you know. These are some of the products that we talked about at the Investor Day. If you go back and have a look at that calendarization, you'll see that 2024, 2025, 2026, you know, we've got quite a few of those new product introductions coming through. We've also got the agreement with Sumitomo for distribution, not exclusive, but distribution of some of those higher margin fungicides and insecticides.
You know, really to be specific, nothing significant or change in view coming out of the bureaucrats or the regulators.
Yeah. Okay. Great. That makes sense. Then just looking at the, I guess the underlying excluding the corporate 26% revenue growth. Maybe this one's for you, Paul. Can you sort of parse out, I guess, what was price, volume, and mix, any sort of direction or guide you can give to you know what price was as a percentage of that revenue growth?
This is the corporate revenue, which is the AUD 183 million that we-
No. Sorry. Excluding the corporate revenue.
Excluding the corporate revenue. It's mainly price, but there is some and I guess Greg touched on it through the specific regions. There has been some volume growth in some key segments and mix. It's a combination of all three, and we're not specifically calling out, but certainly price has been the main contributor to the growth. You're seeing that in our period results announcement as well, that you know the price has been you know by far the biggest contributor, but we've certainly had some good volume growth in some key segments and good profitable mix improvement.
All right. Thanks for your time then.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Grant Saligari with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks. Greg, good solid results. Great to see that. On Europe, I think it's obviously a bit of focus on that in the call, but on Europe, can you outline sort of more specifically what things you think you can do to squeeze a little more in terms of performance out of Europe? Maybe also just in terms of the current result, how would you think about that in terms of whether this is a good, poor, or above average Crop and some general market conditions? Like, is this reflective of what we should think about for a normal Crop and market conditions in Europe?
Let me tackle that first, sorry, last piece first. I would describe it as fairly normal. I mean, it's quite variable when we talk about Europe. As you know, it covers.
Yeah
You know, a huge area and different seasonal conditions, you know, across that. I would describe it sort of as normal. I think it's fair to say. When we look at you know, the next four or five years, there's still more we can do in our supply chain. You know, we've got a capital program to invest in our operation at Wyke, you know, which is really a global facility for you know, our specialty phenoxy and MCPA where we have a global position. That's included as part of the European result. I see that contributing more. We've got the formulation facilities at Gaillon and Linz.
There's more we can do, which is really what we've done in North America, if you like, to modernize our supply chain, formulations and logistics and warehousing. There's quite a bit of work to do. The real driver, once you've got those base parameters right, the real growth then comes from the portfolio. As you know, it takes time to build those products and get the registrations. The acquired portfolio has and will continue to hold us over. I don't see a significant improvement, save for doing something else like acquiring some products. There's nothing there at the moment that I've got clear visibility of.
It really is about just that hard work, tidying the business up, tweaking out more margin where you can, with the focus of, you know, really 2024, 2025, when we start to see the impact, the real impact of what we've talked about, you know, again, back to the Investor day and with, you know, with the Sumitomo portfolio. I do think there'll be other opportunities that come our way, you know, over that time period. I just can't be specific about them now.
Okay. Just sticking on the North America result, I mean, the improvement there was a standout, and it was actually achieved with sort of Canada having, you know, drought conditions. It wasn't all sort of favorable there. Do you think that level of performance in North America was Sustainable? Again, I guess similar question, what more do you think you could do in the North American market to improve your position?
Again, unlike Europe, you know, the hard work or, if you like, or the heavy lifting around the, you know, the supply chain, and we've talked about the facilities there before. You know, the insecticide/fungicide operation at Alsip, you know, state-of-the-art, performing well. Greenville was only commissioned 18 months ago. You know, going very, very strongly. You shouldn't underestimate the impact that that has on both, you know, our internal efficiencies, but also our ability to reliably supply our customers. There's some more work that we need to do at Chicago Heights, and that will be done, you know, over the next probably two or three years. Then it's really assessing the growth and whether we need to do more Greenville-type operations. You know, we're potentially looking at doing something in Canada or something on the, on the West Coast.
They're things that make a difference. Again, ultimately, it's about what comes through the portfolio, and that's where the focus is. You know, I absolutely agree. It's been an outstanding result. I wouldn't put this down anywhere near as normal. There was, you know, quite a heavy swing to first half given uncertainty in supply and volatility. I do think though, when you look at the performance of North America over the last four or five years, there just has been, you know, continual growth. I see no reason why that can't continue. If you look, if you take a four or five-year sort of view rather than a half-over-half, I think that's probably the better way to look at it.
Yeah. All right. That's very helpful. Good result.
Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Richard Johnson with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Thanks very much. Greg, can I just return to the earlier comments on volume growth in the first half? Perhaps you could try to help me understand a little bit more, you know, what kind of volume growth you enjoyed. The reason I ask the question is it sounded like you were talking down volume a little bit, and that's a surprise given you've had favorable conditions, seasonal conditions in obviously core markets. I'm just trying to understand that a little bit more and then also to reconcile, you know, how we should think about the level of volume today relative to the long-term trend, which is obviously population growth, which is a far lower number.
I think, Richard, that is the way to really look at it. You know, I think on sort of current trends, we, you know, we're gonna finish up from a revenue point of view. You know, some of that goes to volume, some of that goes to pricing, some of that goes to product mix. There is volume growth in some of those segments, I think particularly in North America. I think in the other markets it's been more predominantly price driven. I think at some point, and I don't think anyone rings the bell, as I've said before, at the top or the bottom, but we are starting to see a decrease in active ingredient or raw material prices.
Now, whether that impacts in the second half or whether that impacts in the first half of 2023, you know, I just don't know. We will get a correction in pricing at some point. I think the volume story then is really linked to the portfolio and what you've got to sell. That's frankly where our focus is when we look to the five-year plan. It's all about having
Products that do two things. It keeps your relevance with your customers, so therefore volume, but it also, the mix starts to, you know, improve quality of earnings and the margin percentage as the volume of higher, you know, higher margin differentiated product starts to bite.
That's great. Thanks, that's very helpful. Just a quick one for Brent on Carinata. Qantas has been out and about the last day or so talking about the potential for synthetic fuels replacing biofuels. Really my question is, I'd be interested to know what your view on that is and whether you've taken account of that in your long-term thinking around the size of the addressable market.
Yeah. Thanks, Richard. Thanks for the question. You know, it's as we've assessed the market, you know, the market size is obviously huge in terms of the need for you know, whether it's renewables, biofuels or other Technologies in Aviation. Yeah, we're well aware and have been tracking all the developments of other types of Technologies. At the same time, you know, maybe one of the reference points or things to think about is the industry, the IATA industry, the International Air Transport Association, that's been putting out some guidelines as to what the role of Sustainable Aviation Fuel is in the future.
They project that out of all the volume that's gonna move to new types of fuels or technology, 65% of it is gonna have to come from Sustainable Aviation Fuel, which will come from, you know, veg oil or other types of plant-based sources. Meanwhile, you know, there's still 35% of a very huge market looking at new and other Technologies that will come down the track. I think in particular in our discussions with the Aviation industry, the real, you know, probably, you know, hardest thing to solve for is long-haul flights and transport, and that seems to be the real focus today of, you know, most of the airlines.
you know, I think fair to say they're looking at all different types of Technologies as they try to make the transition and shift to the future.
No, that's helpful. Thanks. Then just quickly on Omega-3, is the ongoing sort of COVID closures in China still a drag on growth for the broader market, salmon market?
Yeah, it's interesting that we've seen very strong rebound in all the salmon markets. The pricing has recovered. You know, the margins have recovered in most of the salmon markets around the world. You know, I don't know if we've seen some of the short-term impacts of China right now, but you know, the European and the North American and rest of world markets have been very strong. You know, at this stage we're seeing really good results in growth and demand globally. You know, I think everyone's keeping a close eye on those developments and what impact they may have. You know, it continues to be a dynamic that we have to track pretty closely.
At this stage, the market's looking really healthy.
That's very helpful. Thanks very much. That's it from me.
I think, Richard, just one other comment I'd make, and Brent may not have seen the Qantas announcements, but I think the other point I'd make in addition to what Brent said, you know, Carinata is a ready now option and while, you know, I think it'll continue to play a role until those new Technologies are developed and/or commercialized.
Thank you. The next question comes from James Ferrier with Wilsons. Please go ahead.
Good morning, guys. Thanks very much for your time, and congratulations on the result. First question, can you just give us a bit more color about the AUD 190 million of CapEx you're expecting for the full year? Maybe if you could sort of split it, stay-in-business versus growth or split it, fixed asset versus intangibles.
Yes. Good morning, James. We sort of indicated this at the full year, that we expect about AUD 150 million of that 190 is stay in business and 35 million was expected to be invested in Wyke essentially. There's a number of projects in Wyke improving, increasing the capacity in the Provimi Tolle Probiotics area. That's where the sort of the split is on that between, if you like, stay in business and growth. Inside that 150 though, the split's roughly about 100 million of intangible spend and then 50 million of PPE investment, which is stay in business, probably plant and equipment investment.
Of the 100, about 60% of it's Crop Protection, 40% is Seed Technologies. As we called out, there is an element of growth CapEx, whether it's global extensions or other, if you like, expansions of our IP inside that 100, if you like, to isolate growth CapEx from some of the regular side of that steady business for the purposes of, you know, how people should think about what our CapEx is.
That's very helpful. That leads on to my next question then. There's about AUD 60 million there of intangible CapEx in relation to Crop Protection. Over the last decade, that number's sort of probably been somewhere between, say 40 and 60. Is that the right amount of spend? Is that enough in terms of being able to not just keep the Crop Protection revenue where it is, but to be able to facilitate that AUD 500 million-AUD 600 million of net new revenue within Crop Protection that Nufarm's aiming for by 2020?
Yeah. I don't know if you were on the Investor Day call, James. That was a question that came out, and effectively, we expect the Crop Protection investment, so as a ratio today to continue to, if you like, obtain that ratio. I think it's about 3.5% sales. That'll continue going forward. That way we're able to, if you like, support the growth in the Crop Protection revenues that we'd identified at the time of the Investor day. Yes, there is a growth element. The growth in that 60 to support the growth in the Crop Protection.
I think, James, just to add to that, you know, we talked about 200 projects in the pipeline. 22 projects that are, you know, particularly important to us. I'd just make the point that those 22 projects have been funded in that CapEx program and have passed Proof of Concept. You know, we've got pretty good visibility around what those projects will deliver in that five-year plan.
Excellent. That's great, Color. Thank you. In the North American result, can you put some numbers around the sort of return to more normal demand in the Turf and Ornamental part of the business?
Yeah. Look, we don't specifically call that out. What I can say is elaborate on what Greg said, that this result is not normal. Normally we, you know, this is at a high level. We normally have a sort of 50/50 split between the halves. Last year it was skewed to the second half, and that's because of all the supply constraints, the polar vortex, et cetera, et cetera, which impacted the first half. This half is just not apples to apples because you've got a pull-f orward and increased demand because of people wanting to get their foot on product. We think about North America, normal conditions are more 50/50 split weighted first half, second half.
Okay, thanks. Last question, perhaps for Brent. I certainly understand where Omega-3 is going longer term and, you know, your intentions around planting and outer years in relation to demand. In the near term though, I'm interested to see what sort of feedback you're getting, what sort of reception you're getting from growers, to plant Omega-3 Seed as part of the program in the context of the cash Crop canola prices being so high and then how that might impact your likely acreage this year.
Yeah. It's a good point. I mean, obviously there's been a lot of volatility and escalation in commodity prices. You know, maybe just to broaden the question a bit, you know, is that you know, the impact of canola prices. Obviously growers expect to be paid more, you know, for base canola and we do pay them premiums to grow this as an Identity Preserved product over and above that. You know, really it's a question of in our business model being able to be competitive at the farm gate and be able to pass those additional costs through to our end use customers.
You know what I would say is that at the end use customer side, you know, they understand that because they're buyers of fish oil, which is trading at record levels. They also buy canola oil and fully understand, you know, the volatility that's that we're seeing in world markets right now. You know what I would say is that, you know, a lot of it is about being competitive at the farm gate to be able to get the acres as well as being able to then, you know, land that product at higher values in the end use markets. We've actually already seen that in our ability to move prices up correspondingly, you know, with the end use market.
It's part of really managing the business model. I don't necessarily see, you know, canola or commodity prices as limiting, you know, the potential to acquire growers. Probably the most exciting thing for us is bringing, you know, better and continued improved genetics to the farm gate. You know, I think I've mentioned that we're now moving to our second generation genetics, and we'll be launching some of those, this year in 2022, to be planted in 2023 for oil in 2024. You know, it's all coming together quite nicely, I'd say, in terms of being able to balance all those factors.
Thanks, Brent. That's very helpful. Calla. Thank you.
Thank you. Your next question comes from Matt Perry, a private Investor. Please go ahead.
Hi there. I'm particularly interested in Omega-3 canola and the progress in capturing market share. What would you estimate the reasonable TAM would be, and how much of that would you anticipate being able to capture?
Yeah, look, thanks for the question. You know, it depends how you define the market, of course, that you're participating in. One of the highlights that we provided in our Investor Day was that in our first year of commercial operations, or I guess 15 months, you know, we had estimated that we'd achieved about 4% market share in the Chilean salmon feed market. We provided that color back in February. We're pretty pleased with that, you know, in terms of having just gone commercial, but it also speaks to you know, how much growth there is in our potential with that product.
Probably getting back to the question of how do you look at the size of the market and the size of the opportunity. We also projected over the next 10 years in an unconstrained model, meaning that you know when we can supply additional omega-3 oil from this type of technology into a market that's been constrained just with like a flat amount of fish oil available to it. We believe that the market will demand approximately 2x the current size of the fish oil market growing from 900,000 tons to 1.8 million tons. The value pool available that we can participate in with this technology is worth about AUD 850 million of EBITDA in AUD terms.
You know, it's a very large market for us to participate in, and our view is, you know, that we are clearly the market leader in new Technologies to supply to that market today, and we continue to believe that we will retain that market leader position. Hopefully that's helpful for you.
Yeah, thanks for that. Where is competition coming from in that market?
Yeah, it's a good question, and there have been various Technologies that have been making, you know, some announcements about their development. I'd say that the only other ones that we're seeing in the market today is what I'll call, you know, alternate sources from marine sources being fish oil is ourselves as well as some algal Technologies where they're, you know, fermenting and creating different types of options from algal Technologies. The challenge that I think the industry is seeing with algal Technologies is they're very high cost, you know, given the type of technology that they require to produce it.
I think through the COVID period, we saw that they were very challenged, and we know that we're already starting to displace some of the volumes of those alternate Technologies. You know, I think the advantage that we see from a plant-based source is using agriculture as a really efficient system to be able to have a competitive position and probably most importantly, a scalable position. You know, at this time, you know, we really don't see really significant competitive pressure from alternative Technologies in the market and you know, our opportunity is to help the market grow as being the leader in this space.
Thanks very much. That's really helpful.
Thank you.
Thank you. There are no further questions. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.