Thank you. Good morning, everybody, and thanks for joining us today for the Orora Group Full-year 2025 Results Presentation. I'm joined by Sean Hughes, our Chief Financial Officer. Today, Sean and I will provide you with an overview of our results for the year and an update on the significant amounts of activity within the business as we reshape the portfolio to be a focused beverage packaging business. At the end of the presentation, I'll conclude with some insights and perspectives for the year ahead, including our outlook statement for FY 2026. Once concluded, we will be happy to take your questions. Before I start, please take note of the important information we have on slide two. Turning to slide four. Today, we'll be delivering the following key messages. First, we have delivered a solid set of results in FY 2025, which demonstrates the resilience of our business.
Second, our cans business is set up to grow strongly into the future as we leverage the investment in new capacity. Third, the operating environment for our glass business has been challenging. Therefore, we have taken decisive action on the network to optimize capacity. Finally, our balance sheet remains strong, which supports ongoing shareholder returns through dividends and on-market buybacks. Turning to slide five and our full-year results. The results you see here today are for our continuing operations, excluding significant items except where noted. The results of OPS and closures have been treated as discontinued operations. Sean will also provide details of our statutory numbers later in his presentation. EBITDA was AUD 418.8 million, an increase of 19.4%, which was driven by Saverglass with a full- year's contribution compared to seven months in the prior comparative period.
EBIT was AUD 262.1 million, an increase of 9.5%, with growth in EBITDA partly offset by high depreciation, again driven by Saverglass . When talking about Saverglass in more detail shortly, the comparison will be on a pro forma basis. The cans business was broadly in line, and Gawler was impacted by the G3 furnace shutdown in the first half. Statutory NPAT was AUD 973.1 million, including the profit on sale for OPS. On a continuing basis, excluding significant items, NPAT was AUD 151.1 million, while EPS was AUD 0.114 per share. Operating cash flow was very strong at AUD 333.6 million, and cash realization of 115% demonstrates our continued focus on managing cash. This cash flow outcome reinforces the strength of our balance sheet with net debt of AUD 254 million and leverage at 0.7 times EBITDA.
Our strong balance sheet and commitment to returning funds to shareholders has resulted in the board today declaring a final dividend of AUD 0.05 per share, unfranked, and brings the total dividend for the year to AUD 0.10. We've also made good progress on the buyback with AUD 127 million, or almost 5% of issued shares bought back to date, and we'll be actively buying shares again shortly. Turning to slide six. Our Orora cans business had a good volume and revenue growth year. Volume growth was very strong, particularly in the fourth quarter, with underlying demand elevated and some inventory built by our largest customers as they commissioned new filling capacity in Queensland. This, combined with the commissioning of the second line at Revesby, resulted in 6% volume growth for the year, driving revenue 12.1% higher, or 8.9% excluding the pass-through impact of aluminum prices.
Reported EBIT increased 0.2% to AUD 103.8 million, noting that this includes an additional AUD 5 million of corporate costs following the sale of OPS and a AUD 2.1 million bad debt. If we exclude these items, EBIT increased 7%. The commissioning of the second line at Revesby was completed, and we've recently begun digital printing our first cans using Helio. This provides a very exciting and unique value proposition for our customers. The third line for our Rocklea facility in Brisbane is under construction and will be complete by the end of FY 2026. This will bring our current capacity expansion program to an end. After a very strong fourth quarter, we expect volume growth to be slightly moderate in FY 2026 to our long-term average. For Saverglass , the operating environment remains challenging due to the ongoing tariff situation.
The headline numbers here are on a pro forma basis, which provides a more accurate comparison. Revenue decreased by 16.5%, with volumes down 12% and the impact of mix shift that we talked about during our update in May. Pleasingly, volumes were 9% higher in the second half compared to the first half, which reflected the stronger order book that we've seen since late calendar 2024. We believe this, in addition to inventory levels remaining fairly stable, is an indication that destocking is substantially complete. EBIT decline was moderated to 5.5% due to cost reductions, synergies, and lower profit sharing. This demonstrates the actions we have taken in order to shore up the cost base, which will also benefit the business as volume grows. Further actions, such as the closure of the F4 furnace at Le Havre, will also improve the cost base.
Finally, Gawler's result, which reflects the declining beer and commercial wine market for glass and the impact of the G3 furnace rebuild in the first half. The G3 rebuild is now complete and operational, and the G1 furnace closure is well advanced, which will drive improved operational and financial returns in FY 2026. Turning to slide seven. As mentioned, our Saverglass order intake has strengthened this year, and although it has slowed since February, aggregate orders were 21% higher for the second half compared to the prior year. We have seen a stronger order intake in July, primarily driven by tequila, with demand in Europe remaining subdued. On the right-hand side of the slide is an update of inventory levels. Total inventory levels have been fairly steady since January. However, customer-owned inventory is more than 50% lower than the peak in December 2023.
Turning to slide eight and the capacity additions we've been making in cans. As we detailed at our investor day in May, our cans business has been delivering strong volume growth with CAGR of 5.5% between FY 2016 and FY 2023. This has been driven by shifting consumer preferences and growth in new product categories such as craft beer, RTDs, energy, and kombucha. As our network was overfull in 2023, we started investing in additional capacity alongside new investments being made by our customers. If we didn't do this, our EBIT growth would have been constrained to 1%-2% per year as we would not have been able to fulfill our customers' requirements. Our program of capacity expansions will total more than AUD 350 million in capital spend when complete next year and is expected to deliver an incremental AUD 50 million of EBIT in real terms by FY 2030.
To date, we have already spent 75% of the capital, but have only realized 30% of the EBIT as each project takes about three years to ramp up to the expected utilization. Therefore, we are entering a period of substantial earnings and cash flow leverage for our cans business, with only the Rocklea expansion remaining. Once this is complete in late FY 2026, we'll have the capacity to grow volumes by approximately 5% each year and still not need to invest further capacity expansions before 2030. Turning to slide nine. The story is somewhat different for our glass business, with actions focused on optimizing capacity in response to changing demand. For Saverglass , we have two major projects underway: the rebuild of Ghlin in Belgium and the closure of the F4 furnace at Le Havre in France.
As a reminder about Ghlin, this project will see all champagne and wine bottle production consolidated into a single site, which will improve efficiency and make this furnace our lowest cost furnace in Europe. With the recent mix shift we've been witnessing, this project takes on increasing importance. This project allowed capacity in the UAE to be freed up for other markets, which I'll also talk about shortly. We have revised timing for phase one of the Ghlin rebuild, which is now due to commence next May, with EUR 17 million to be spent across FY 2026 and FY 2027. Phase two, if approved, will total EUR 18 million and will not occur until at least FY 2028. Although it is not currently operating, the shutdown of the F4 furnace at Le Havre is significant for the company as Saverglass has never permanently closed the furnace.
The team is following a very detailed and comprehensive process with our employees and the local unions in France. The outcome of the consultation process is expected to conclude by the end of November 2025, with impacted employees then notified. The closure will result in an annual EBIT benefit of EUR 9 million, with around half of that achieved in FY 2026. We retain the optionality to upsize the remaining F3 furnace at Le Havre in the future if the market conditions allow. Finally, at Gawler in Australia, where the declining commercial wine environment has resulted in the closure of the G1 furnace and our site transitioning to a two-furnace operation. The G3 rebuild is now complete and fully operational, with improved efficiency and carbon emissions, which enables Gawler to operate at a high utilization rate once G1 is closed.
Like Le Havre, we are following a thorough and detailed plan and expect the closure to be complete by late August or early September, with a reduction of approximately 85 roles. Surplus demand will be moved to the UAE, which mitigates the risk of further volume declines as we can flex production between Gawler and the UAE to maximize the Gawler two-furnace operation at high utilization. We estimate the closure will deliver around AUD 17 million of EBIT benefit compared to running a three-furnace operation. With that, I'll now cover off an update for you on safety and sustainability. Turning to slide 11 and safety. Please note, all data now includes Saverglass . The value of our global health and safety strategy is apparent with continued strong safety performance.
In FY 2025, lost time injury frequency rates improved 35% and recordable case frequency rates improved 5%, with no serious injuries or fatalities recorded. This is a true reflection of our ongoing focus on communication, continuous improvement activities, and programs to identify hazards as well as manage risks. Our attention now turns to the implementation of our FY 2026 to FY 2028 global health and safety strategy, which will build on the previous strategy by maintaining focus on safety awareness and embedding safety culture across all Orora sites. The health, safety, and wellbeing of our people remains a fundamental and ongoing commitment at Orora. We'll continue to focus on ensuring our safety programs improve performance even further through our targeted improvement programs. Now turning to sustainability and our promise to the future on slide 12.
We continue to make strong progress against our targets for recycled content and emissions reductions, and we're pleased to announce new global targets inclusive of Saverglass . We have achieved 59.5% recycled content for glass, and we're well on track to exceed our 60% target by the end of calendar year 2025. Our new recycled content target is 68% for colored glass by FY 2035, as we continue to expand our color sourcing programs. In cans, we are committed to maintaining a high level of recycled content through FY 2030. For emissions reductions, our new group target equates to a 41% reduction at scope one and scope two emissions by FY 2035. These targets will be enabled by our ongoing investment in decarbonization of the glass network.
Our recent investment in the oxygen plant at Gawler has resulted in the G3 furnace being one of the top 10% of energy-efficient furnaces in the world. Importantly, today we are disclosing our scope three emissions for the first time and are committing to future reduction targets. For the Orora Group, we are targeting a 31% reduction in scope three emissions by FY 2035. Overall, I am extremely proud of the achievements of our entire team in this important area. I'll now hand you to Sean to discuss the group and segment financial results.
Thanks, Brian, and good morning, everyone. Before I take you through the group's FY 2025 financial performance, I just want to take a moment to revisit our key financial priorities as set out on slide 14. This slide is from our recent investor update and provides a summary of the key financial priorities for the company. The results today are consistent with our key financial priorities, specifically our minimum 15% target return on organic growth, CapEx, and our target dividend payout ratio of 60%- 80% of NPAT, all whilst maintaining investment-grade credit metrics. Turning to slide 15, I'll start with the group results before I cover the segment financial performance. This slide summarizes the group's underlying and statutory earnings result for FY 2025. The numbers I will initially focus on are for the continuing operations only; therefore, these exclude the results for OPS and closures prior to their divestment.
They also exclude significant items with our statutory numbers shown at the bottom of the page with further detail on slide 32. At a group level, revenue increased 24% to AUD 2.1 billion, with a full-year contribution from Saverglass compared to seven months in the prior period. Outside of the increase in Saverglass revenue, Gawler revenue increased 1.5% and cans increased 12%. Group EBITDA increased 19%, with the additional Saverglass contribution being partially offset by the impacts of the G3 rebuild in the first half. Depreciation and amortization increased by AUD 45 million, reflecting the additional five months of Saverglass . Net finance costs were marginally lower at AUD 67 million, consistent with our guidance of AUD 65 million-A UD 70 million as the balance sheet was reset following the sale of OPS. Net finance costs will reduce further next year, and I will provide more details later in the presentation.
NPAT of AUD 151 million has increased 18% with lower interest and an effective tax rate for the year of 22%. This reflects R&D credits and a greater portion of Saverglass earnings in lower taxed regions in the period. We expect our long-run effective tax rate to be around 25%. EPS was AUD 0.114 per share, an increase of 11%. Moving now to the Orora cans business on slide 16. As Brian mentioned earlier, there were two key items that mask a stronger underlying performance for cans. A strong second half delivered full-year volume growth of 6%. The fourth quarter was particularly strong as customers built inventory in Queensland to support their new filling investments. This delivered revenue growth of 9%, excluding the impact of pass-through aluminum prices.
EBITDA and EBIT increases were moderate on a reported basis due to the inclusion of an incremental AUD 5 million of corporate costs following the divestment of OPS and a AUD 2.1 million bad debt incurred in the second half. Whilst headline cans' EBIT was an increase of 0.2%, underlying EBIT growth was 7% against 6% higher volumes. Cans' depreciation increased modestly in the period, with Revesby only being commissioned late in the second half. Cans' depreciation will therefore increase in FY 2026 by approximately AUD 4 million, with a full year of depreciation for Revesby and Helio. Our total CapEx was AUD 124.7 million. This will decrease in FY 2026 as only the Rocklea expansion remains in our growth CapEx program. Turning to slide 17. As FY 2024 included only seven months of Saverglass earnings, the comparisons on this page are to a pro forma FY 2024.
The impact of destocking and the uncertainty for customers regarding tariffs for exports to the U.S. contributed to a reduction in volumes of 12%, with revenue decreasing 16.5%. Importantly, we have seen a recovery in volumes in the second half, with volumes up 9% on the first half. Whilst revenue in the second half was broadly in line with the first half, as previously flagged, we saw a mix shift to wine and champagne bottles as our sales activity generated better volumes in these areas. These products have a lower price point. We have also seen some reduction in overall pricing as cost deflation is passed through to customers. Importantly, our pricing is holding in real terms. Against this volume decline, EBITDA and EBIT both decreased around 5%, and this demonstrates the success we have had in reducing the cost base in this period of lower customer demand.
This included lower employee profit sharing costs, which is ultimately determined by the performance of the business. Depreciation of AUD 65.7 million was slightly lower year to year, reflecting the first half benefit of aligning the Saverglass depreciation policy for molds with that of Gawler. We expect depreciation to be in the low mid EUR 70 million range in FY 2026, which reflects the second half 2025 run rate, plus some additional depreciation on new molds for wine and champagne customers. Total CapEx spend was EUR 30.8 million, with molds being EUR 10.8 million and early works for the Ghlin furnace being EUR 6.6 million. The spend on molds is classified as both base and growth CapEx, depending on whether it is for existing customers or new products. Turning to slide 18. Gawler results were consistent with expectations, with revenue up moderately on flat volumes and EBIT impacted by the G3 rebuild.
Wine and beer volumes declined, with beer driven by a format shift to cans and wine continuing to experience soft customer demand. Whilst the volumes of other products such as olive oil and food jars increased, this is a less profitable business for Orora. EBITDA of AUD 57 million and EBIT of AUD 25 million included the impact of the G3 furnace rebuild, with EBIT also including a moderate increase in depreciation. Depreciation will increase approximately AUD 6 million in FY 2026, with a full year of depreciation for G3 and the new oxygen plant. CapEx will step down materially next year, with only minor base CapEx required going forward. Turning to slide 19. Orora has delivered a strong operating cash flow for continuing operations of AUD 334 million, an increase of 46% with an additional five months of Saverglass performance and a strong working capital improvement.
The working capital improvement reflects an unwind of the Gawler inventory built ahead of the initial G3 rebuild, a payable benefit from the timing of aluminum purchases supporting the increased volumes. Whilst Saverglass working capital improved in Europe, the weaker Australian dollar meant that working capital was slightly higher on a reported basis year to year. The strong operating cash flow performance after CapEx, interest, and tax has flowed through to free cash flow available to shareholders of AUD 97 million. This will further increase in FY 2026 and beyond, with only the Rocklea project remaining in our cans CapEx program. Cash realization at 115% highlights our commitment to cash management. Turning to slide 20. This slide is from our May investor update with updated FY 2025 cash realization numbers. As a reminder, cash realization is defined as EBITDA plus the movement in working capital and any non-cash items over EBITDA.
This is our preferred cash metric as it demonstrates our working capital efficiency. Cash realization is above 100% given the working capital movements I just mentioned. Turning to slide 21. CapEx was AUD 263 million this year, higher than FY 2024 as we completed some important projects, namely the G3 rebuild and the oxygen plant at Gawler and the Revesby expansion for cans. In FY 2026, we expect a total CapEx of around AUD 200 million, with base CapEx consistent with our long-term target range and a reduction in growth CapEx as we near the completion of our cans growth CapEx investment program. Beyond FY 2026, you can see that base CapEx will be AUD 70 million- AUD 95 million per year, and the decarbonization CapEx for Saverglass SAS will be AUD 15 million- AUD 25 million per year for a total of AUD 85 million- AUD 120 million per year.
Outside of the remaining capacity investments, there will be some modest growth investment as noted to support new customer molds and productivity. We are not expecting to add any new network capacity until the next decade, and importantly, any new addition in capacity will be clearly flagged and will be subject to our investment hurdles. Depreciation will increase in FY 2026 to between AUD 180 million and AUD 185 million as the newly commissioned projects are depreciated. We will have 12 months' worth of depreciation for Revesby, Helio, and the G3 and oxygen plant, partially offset by the impact of the G1 closure. Saverglass depreciation is expected to be in the low to mid-EUR 70 million range in FY 2026. Slide 22 highlights Orora's balance sheet and net debt position, which is very strong following the sale of OPS.
As at the 30th of June, net debt was AUD 254 million with leverage at 0.7x net debt to EBITDA. This will increase next year as we continue to execute our CapEx programs and our on-market buyback program. Net finance costs in FY 2026 are expected to be approximately AUD 55 million- AUD 60 million. This assumes that 10% of shares will be bought back on market within FY 2026. That is, we complete the remaining 5% under the existing buyback program and commence another buyback during FY 2026 to maintain the 10% run rate over a 12-month period.
Our net finance costs comprise more than just interest and include the following items: interest on our drawn gross debt at approximately 4.5%, ROU interest for leased assets of around AUD 8 million, supply chain predominantly for aluminum supply contracts and other uncommitted working within capital financing arrangements, and any other items such as commitment fees payable for undrawn facilities. The two main reasons why this is higher than the run rate from the second half of 2025 is average high debt drawn of around AUD 300 million and lower capitalized interest given the completion of recent capital projects for Gawler and cans. As a reminder, interest is capitalized when a project is under construction. Once commissioned, it is then amortized over the useful life. Slide 23.
The Board has declared a final AUD 0.05 per share dividend, which represents a payout ratio of 69% of continuing operations to the half, consistent with our target payout ratio. This brings the total dividend for the year to AUD 0.10 per share. The dividend is unfranked, but we expect to be able to partially frank dividends in FY 2026. Our buyback has progressed well, with 62 million shares purchased for a total consideration of AUD 127 million. We will be resuming the buyback shortly. I'll now hand back to Brian.
Thanks, Sean. We'll turn now to slide 25 and a reminder of Orora's investment proposition. We believe the results today demonstrate Orora's well-invested asset base and its cash flow generation capabilities. We've taken action to optimize capacity in glass and continue to invest to support our cans customers. As we look at FY 2026 and beyond, the majority of our cans' growth CapEx will be complete, and we will enter a period of substantially higher cash flow generation. Turning to slide 26, and I'll cover our FY 2026 perspectives in more detail. For cans, the demand tailwinds are positive, and customers have invested in new filling capacity, which we have supported with our own capital investments. Our digital printer, Helio, is operational, and we've recently produced our first digitally printed cans for our customers.
The Rocklea expansion continues and is on track for completion in late FY 2026, and we expect volume growth to continue and be consistent with our long-term projected growth rates. For Saverglass , order intake remains solid but below the very strong October to February period, although July orders were sharply up, driven primarily by tequila. We are still seeing the mix shift towards standard premium wine and champagne, and we expect this will persist at least through the first half of FY 2026. While the operating environment remains uncertain, there has been some recent positive news for the cognac industry. There is an agreement between China and EU producers on price increases that has resolved the recent trade dispute. This is a welcome development, and we have seen an uplift in orders for cognac bottles in the recent months. U.S. tariffs remain very fluid.
Currently, Mexican production sold into the U.S. is exempt from tariffs under the USMCA. The proposed 15% tariff on EU production should be manageable at the ultra-premium spirits and wine segment, although we are yet to see any clear responses from our customers. There is an opportunity for the industry to achieve better outcomes than the 15% given proposed discussions that have been flagged between the parties. For Gawler, we expect a continuation of volume trends that we've seen this year, being a lower volume for wine and beer and higher volumes for other categories. This trend has necessitated a decision to close G1, which is expected to be complete within the next month. Turning to our outlook on slide 27. For cans, we expect EBIT to be higher with volumes consistent with our long-term growth rates, and that supports EBITDA growth.
This EBITDA growth will be partially offset by an additional AUD 5 million in corporate costs and additional depreciation from the completion of the recent capital growth projects. For Saverglass , FY 2026 EBIT is expected to be broadly in line with FY 2025. Volume growth and cost reduction initiatives will support higher EBITDA compared to FY 2025, but this will be offset by higher DNA. For Gawler, EBIT is expected to be approximately AUD 30 million due to the operational benefits from running a highly utilized two-furnace operation. For the group, this results in EBITDA and cash flow growth being delivered by all businesses. This growth will be partially offset by the impact of an additional AUD 7 million of corporate costs that were previously allocated to OPS that are now being absorbed by the remaining group and with higher DNA than tempering FY 2026 EBIT growth.
As always, this outlook remains subject to global and domestic economic conditions, fluctuations in currency, and no further changes in U.S. tariffs. Thank you all for listening to our presentation. Operator, if you can now open the line for questions.
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star and two. If you are on a speaker phone, we do ask that you please pick up your handset to ask your question. Our first question today comes from Ramoun Lazar from Jefferies. Please go ahead with your question.
Yeah, good morning, Brian and Sean. Thanks for taking my questions. I've just got a couple in Saverglass , if that's all right. Just maybe your comments in the outlook slide on the volume outlook for Saverglass . If you could just point to where that volume growth is coming from that you expect in 2026 and whether you expect that to be, you know, broadly across the first and second half.
What we have seen is that the underlying demand across most categories has been fairly stable and subdued, and the volume growth that we have achieved in the second half of FY 2025 was really new business that the team have been out to conquest, primarily in wine and champagne. We're not banking on underlying demand picking up from the consumer at this point, but we are continuing our endeavors to grow new business. That's where we would expect it to come from. Certainly, as that flows through, we're still seeing some variability in terms of the timing of that demand. Lapping the first half, we did see a higher number in the second half versus the first half. Historically, seasonality-wise, in a normalized world, we would see the first half being stronger than the second half.
It is a little bit difficult for us to project at the moment, but with underlying consumer demand being fairly stable, we would still expect that we are able to continue to grow, although it's going to be in specific segments other than spirits, which take a longer turnaround time at that premium end.
Got it. That's very clear. Just taking your guidance number for Saverglass at an EBIT level, but converting it back to euros and then adding that DNA guidance, it implies EBITDA grows very slightly in constant currency terms. I'm just trying to piece together why that might be given the comments on higher volumes and the operating leverage you should be seeing as a result of what you've done to the cost base. Is it just a mix issue?
No, I mean, in terms of mix, what we're actually seeing is, as we've said, an increase in wine and champagne. What's driving that slightly higher guidance in EBITDA is just the cost actions that we continue to drive through the business. We think that price is holding. We've done a lot of work around really understanding the price point in the market and how that's moving in real terms, and we're very comfortable that that's holding. Really, what's driving it is the outlook on volume that Brian mentioned and then continuing to drive the cost within the business.
Got it. Okay, thank you. No, that's clear.
I should also add, in terms of our outlook, what we have done is we give that outlook in Australian dollars, but we're assuming constant currency with FY 2025.
Right. Okay. Thank you.
Yeah, not the spot.
Our next question comes from Daniel Kang from CLSA. Please go ahead with your question.
Oh, good morning, everyone. I guess this one's for Sean. Just against your guidance in May, it looks like Saverglass performed much better in the second half, 13% higher than the first half. While both of your guidance are broadly flat half and half, can you just help us unpack the key areas of positive surprise there?
Yeah, I mean, I think we talked in May and we've talked a number of times about the work we've been doing to drive volume growth, particularly in wine and champagne. You can see that the circa 9% growth between the first half and the second half is really a testament to the success that the team have been able to deliver in that campaign. That's really what's driving the benefit, plus also continuing to get traction around cost out as we focus on every aspect of the business.
Got it. Thanks for that, Sean. Just sticking with Saverglass , Brian, can I ask you to comment on the competitive landscape? I guess the market is moving down to the standard premium segment in the current environment. Over the medium term, how do you assess the risk of your rivals moving up to the ultra-premium segment?
What we've seen is probably stable demand at a lower level in the ultra-premium, premium plus, and ultra-premium. The noise we've had to deal with is obviously the destocking, so it's hard to get a handle on the underlying demand, but we know that has been fairly stable of late. In terms of the future, we don't see there are any negative impacts relative to the premiumization trend and the premium segments that we would expect will outgrow the segment as a whole, so we still subscribe to that. In terms of the competitive landscape, thus far, as Sean mentioned, net-net price on our existing products is holding still pretty well, so we haven't been under price pressure for the existing premium segments.
There's no doubt our competitors like us are somewhat underutilized on capacity, so whether it be a new contract or a new opportunity, there is absolutely competition for that, but we're extremely well positioned and, as I said, holding. In terms of the commodity and glass manufacturers moving up into ultra-premium, we really don't see that. It's been talked about a bit, but I guess we've referred to and shown investors when we've done some site tours with Saverglass , the business model is completely different. Configurations of your furnaces, operating lines, manning levels, all of those things are completely different. It's not as easy as people say when they say, we'll move into the ultra-premium segment. The short-run nature of it and quality standards are completely different. We haven't really seen that progressing.
We did even see one of the largest global glass makers with a technology that they were deploying that was supposed to be able to deliver shorter-run products and now saying they're not going to continue to invest in that technology. We think we're still in a very good position.
Appreciate the color, Brian. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Jakob Cakarnis from Jarden, Australia. Please go ahead with your question.
Morning, Sean. Morning, Brian. I just wanted to start, if I can, Sean, just on the net finance part. I think you alluded to it on slide 22 in your prepared remarks, but it seems as though there's potential that the buybacks reloaded through fiscal 2026. Can you just give us a sense of how you're thinking about that and where the leverage is, so 0.7 exiting FY 2025 against a target range of 1.5x- 2.5x, why you wouldn't go above, say, a 10% share repurchase level?
Yeah. I think firstly, the assumption that we've got is to do 10% consistent with the 10% within 12 months rule. We have a lot of conversations with many of our investors about the rate and pace that they would like to see us progress the buyback, and we think that this really reflects the rate and pace that our investors would like us to progress. In terms of the modeling assumption, the modeling assumption is that we do that and therefore we carry the extra debt associated with that buyback. That will likely yield a circa 7%- 8% lift in or reduction in the number of shares by the time you take into account the average number of shares within the period. Just as a reminder, we finished the year with about 1.2 billion shares, AUD 1,280 million. The average for the EPS calc was AUD 1,325 million.
If you were to model that out, you'd expect probably the average number of shares next year in FY 2026 to be somewhere just shy of AUD 1,200 million, AUD 1,190 million, something like that, depending on how quickly we can progress there.
Awesome. That's helpful, Sean. Thank you. Just on Saverglass , obviously highlighting the efforts that you guys have done on costs there. Can you just talk about the sustainability of that cost base now, particularly with the network changes at Le Havre? Just remind us how that profit sharing arrangement works. If things do stabilize and improve there, how much of that potentially comes back? Is it what works on a fixed formula basis? I'm just keen to think about that over FY 2026 and FY 2027. Just finally, sorry, Sean, before you start, are there any signs at all that those wage subsidies or the local government support in France are lessening or could end in FY 2026 or FY 2027, please?
Maybe I'll answer part of the question and let Sean do the rest. The majority of the cost reductions are sustainable. I mean, obviously, taking a furnace out in Le Havre at F4, we're flagged at around EUR 9 million per annum saving, so that's real. There have been some other cost reductions in terms of structural costs with broader employee base that we've taken out. The team worked really hard with a supplier base to ensure that we're taking advantage of any lower costs where we can. Now, some of those flow through to customers as part of the formulas that we have in place. I think we're fairly confident that the reduced cost base can be maintained and therefore, as we get future growth, that we can leverage that up.
That is also predicated on the right sort of mix being put through the facilities at the time so that we don't have that continuing mix effect. When it comes to the wage subsidies, maybe Sean, you can talk about that.
Yeah, so look, in terms of the wage subsidies, we've sort of flagged that as generally about a couple of million. That will cease for Le Havre, but then so too will the labor costs for Le Havre, and that's in the profit guidance that we've given. There's still a bit of short-time working in some of the other sites, so we do get a little bit of benefit there as well. In terms of profit share more broadly, I mean, obviously it's part of how we pay our employees. You know, we need the business to perform at the levels that we would expect it to be at. We would like it to be in a position where we're paying profit share, but you know, it's not there today.
Understood. Finally, just one for Brian. Given now how the network's set up, where do you feel like your rights are to play? Clearly, Global Glass feels like it's stabilizing. Cans, you've carved out a pretty dominant position domestically. What do you need to get right in the next two to three years in your view? Are we in an execution phase now for you as a management team following the large reset?
Yeah, absolutely. It is all about execution. We're very confident with the position we've now got within cans. We are within 12 months of finalizing those growth CapEx investments, and we're on track with the timing of those. As we've said, that will start to generate some really positive cash flow out of that business for quite a number of years before we need to look at further investment. Saverglass , we're continuing to look for opportunities to further drive down costs and drive efficiency and really instill global practices and processes within that business. We've appointed a new President who's only been on board now for about six weeks, but already getting right into the business and really looking for what those future opportunities are.
We're trying to tackle that from both angles, which is how do we generate our own growth, not relying on the market recovery in the short term, and how do we make sure that we're also exploiting all cost reduction activities. To be honest, we're not turning our focus to anything other than those for the next number of years.
Thanks, guys. Appreciate the questions.
Our next question comes from Sam Seow from Citi. Please go ahead with your question.
Morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Just a quick one on cans. You implied second half 2025 volume growth looks to be quite strong, maybe in double digits. Just keen to understand if you can grow off that in second half 2026 or anything we need to know about the one-offs or the first half, second half weighting in FY 2026. Thank you.
Thanks. We certainly were a bit constrained. We were waiting for Revesby to come online, so that helped. I guess you, most of you will recall, we only had a 1% growth rate in the first half, and a few people were worried that was going to continue. What we do see is some variability in that demand over time, over halves and over years. You know, we still stick with the sort of 4%- 6% medium to long-term growth projection. Landing at the 6% was probably a bit above where we expected. A little bit of that was some inventory build as customers commissioned new filling capacity. We had some ramp-up involved in that. It was probably, probably take a point off that.
When we look at FY 2026, we're still very comfortable we can get volume growth, but it'll probably be closer to the low end of our long-term range rather than the top end.
That's helpful. Just on the bad debts that you had in that business, does that reverse or are they just completely lost earnings?
No, it's a bad debt. I mean, there's still, like all of these things, there's always a long legal process to try and get something back, but that's what we expect the loss to be.
Okay. Quickly on Saverglass , if I can, you know, the 21% orders, you know, seems quite positive. Can you just give us a feel of what was like for like versus you actively winning share? I mean, it feels like you're gaining a lot of share in a soft market, just kind of want to unpack that, please.
Yeah, look, like underlying volume was fairly flat. With the order book being up, there's always the noise in that relative to the lag of when you get an order versus when you ship it to the customer. It's not something we'd take as true demand as up 21% necessarily until we see that all flush through. The real numbers of what the customers took, which was that 9% up half on half, the majority of that was in the wine and champagne segment where we've been actively chasing some volume.
We'd say our core underlying business was reasonably flat, maybe a little bit up, and the rest of it was new business for us, which is why we're seeing that mix shift. It's not, we're not seeing growth in the wine industry, for example, because that would be counter to what's being seen globally, but we're growing in wine relative to market share.
Got it. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.
Our next question comes from Brook Campbell- Crawford from Barrenjoey. Please go ahead with your question.
Thanks very much for taking my question. First one, just on Saverglass and tariffs. Would you mind providing an update on how much impact you think will come through in FY 2026 because of their tariffs at the EBIT level? It'd be great if you are expecting an impact at all. Thanks.
At this point, it's very hot off the press. You know, the 15% out of Europe. I think, as I said, you're about just under 30% of what we believe our customers produce goes into the U.S. There is a fair chunk that's subject to those tariffs. We're yet to get any real feedback from our customers, and this time of year, a lot of the European organizations and people are on vacation in August. Things are relatively quiet in terms of information flow. We have not banked in to what we've said, any assessment of a major negative. We're certainly not banking on a rebound. Our outlook is based on fairly steady underlying demand that will need to be managed through between all parties relative to that tariff and us continuing to pursue some opportunities to grow some volume at our instigation rather than underlying demand.
No real assessment on EBIT impact at this point, Brook.
Thanks for clarifying. The good news story about you being able to win share in wine and champagne, do you mind just providing a bit more color on this? How broad-based is it? Is it quite concentrated in terms of a customer or two? Is there anything you can help us understand and appreciate how sustainable it is? I guess I would have thought in that lower-priced market, it's hard to sort of stand out and differentiate other than price, but maybe I'm wrong there. Any color just to help us understand how sustainable the step-up in share is? Thanks.
Yeah, and this is not commodity wine. This is the premium part of the wine segment that Saverglass did participate in sort of pre-2021 timeframe when demand started to increase with COVID. They were a supplier and a reasonable volume supplier across quite a number of European wine producers at that premium end. They pulled back from that when the spirits market really boomed because they were utilizing all the capacity that was available for the premium spirits because they actually were at a higher margin. A lot of the growth we're now seeing is really going back to our customer base that was a pre-existing customer base that we couldn't fulfill, but in that premium segment. Prices are, you know, lower than spirits, but this is not commodity and product that we would see the mainstream glass manufacturers fighting for.
That's great. Thanks for that.
Our next question comes from Cameron McDonald from E&P. Please go ahead with your question.
Good morning. Just a question going back to the cans division, if I can. You've said basically 9% revenue growth, excluding the pass-through of aluminum, and then excluding the sort of the one-off elements relating to the corporate cost increase and the bad debts. You're saying that the EBIT increased 7%. Why aren't we seeing any operating leverage yet out of that business, please?
Really, really good question, Cameron. In effect, the demand that we've really seen is in Queensland, and we haven't yet commissioned the Queensland facility. We're supporting that demand from Sydney and from Melbourne. Therefore, we've got really high freight costs for pushing that around. That freight will unwind as we bring online the new Rocklea facility, and then we would expect to get that operating leverage back.
Okay, doesn't that then mean that you'll have excess capacity in Sydney and Victoria, that the demand isn't as strong in those regions?
No, we're growing at sort of 4%- 6% over the long period across, you know, consistently across the whole of the country. The customers that we've got in Queensland are putting in new filling capacity in Queensland, and we're having to support that from the eastern seaboard. We're making the Rocklea investment to be able to support and align to their investments.
Yeah, and part of what we do, Cameron, is as we make these investments, a number of our facilities, before they come online, are running 24/7, which is not really sustainable because you can't do any maintenance programs, and from a continuity standpoint, you put yourself at risk. Ideally, you want to run a lot of between that five and six-day mark. When the Queensland new line comes on stream at the end of FY 2026, we can take some of the other sites back to that five to six-day running. It's far more efficient because Sunday running time is very expensive to do. It's actually more financially beneficial to have the network balanced like that. No, we're not going to have, you know, operations in the southern states at, you know, let's say 60%- 70% utilization. They're still going to be very high.
Okay, thank you. That's good color. Then just on slide, you know, with the outlook for 2026, just to confirm, the divisions, you know, Orora Cans, Saverglass , and Gawler, they include the AUD 7 million of corporate costs down in the group section, or does that need to be reallocated above?
No, it includes it.
Okay, so it's already included.
Yep, yep, in that guidance statement, it includes it.
Yeah, the divisional guidance already includes that additional corporate cost.
Correct.
Yep, yep, perfect. Sean, you mentioned the tax rate of 22%, you know, going to 25% over the longer term. What do you think that is going to be in 2026, please?
Probably about 25%. I mean.
Okay, so it's going to.
Yeah, 25% is the long-term run rate. I mean, it'll always move around a little bit depending on where the earnings are made through the group, but 25% is the long-term run rate. This year was a little bit lower than we were expecting because we were able to get these R&D credits, particularly off the back of the Petrie work that we've done, and that lowered the tax rate in Australia.
Okay, that's great. Thank you very much, guys.
Our next question comes from Keith Chau from MST Marquee. Please go ahead with your question.
Good morning, Brian and Sean. First question, just following up on Saverglass . I'm sitting here just hearing you guys speak about Saverglass with all the other questions and also, you know, understanding that there is going to be some benefits from the restructure in France. It looks like it's going to be a EUR 5 million benefit for the two months, which is likely to be offset by a EUR 5 million increase in DNA. What I'm trying to understand is if those two factors square off and you're expecting volume growth and underlying markets are flat, I'm actually a bit surprised that the expectation for EBITDA on an underlying basis is not higher if you square out those two points. Just keen to understand whether, you know, there's an element of conservatism baked into guidance or why in a volume growth environment earnings should still be flat.
Yeah, as you mentioned, at an EBIT level, we've got the impact of DNA. We have the impact of mix shift, which, you know, we saw in the second half of this year compared to the first half. That definitely flows through to the first half. Even with some volume growth, we would expect that to be offset. They pretty much net each other off based on, you know, our initial view, not knowing where mix will actually land and whether there's any underlying growth or further decline in the spirit segments. That would be our, you know, in a steady state. That's our estimate as best we can see it today. What we can say is I'm sure things will change even in the coming months because, you know, we've seen a lot of movement and a lot of variability in terms of what the macro looks like.
We've had to make an assessment based on a fairly steady state exit of FY 2025, and those factors sort of neutralize each other out.
If you had to point to a couple of factors that give you at least a degree of confidence that demand is indeed stable or should not get worse materially, what would you point to?
The biggest one that we look at is really the customer-owned inventory. We had that on one of our slides there, and that's been continuing to come down. Where we make product, we sell it to our customer, but we store it in warehouses for them and charge them for that service. We have visibility on what's there. They've been dwindling down that inventory to a point now where we would say it's almost as low as where it was three or four years ago. At that point, that would be fairly stable, and therefore, their demand should stabilize, if not start to tick up based on what they're producing themselves and selling. That's probably the best indicator. We look at things like the Nielsen scan data.
That has showed that spirits, whether it's been in Europe or in the U.S. for the last 12 months, has probably had a 3% or 4% decline at a macro level. We don't get to necessarily get underneath that to every category that we supply, but at a macro level, demand has certainly softened globally on spirits. There are a lot of publications on wines, and we're not expecting a rebound on that. We're effectively comfortable. We're close to, if not at the end of destocking, and therefore demand from our customers should stabilize to consumer demand. It's up to us to go and chase new business, which the team have been successfully doing, but that doesn't necessarily get us the growth that we'd like to see over the medium to long- term.
Okay, that's great. Thanks, Brian. Same question for Sean, just actually a couple on cash flows. First one on CapEx. I think back in May, with six weeks to go, the CapEx guidance was around AUD 290 million for the year at the midpoint, but it came in at AUD 263 million is what it states in the presentation, AUD 267 million in the statutory cash flow numbers. Can you help me understand why the difference was so big with only such a short time to go in the financial period and what the key driver was, please?
There are always complex projects, and the timing is a little bit hard to predict exactly. I mean, there's only really two large projects in train, you know, the Revesby facility and the Rocklea facility, and it's just around the timing of the build. Nothing particularly to call out other than that's where the work effort landed and where the CapEx bills with the various constructors that we're working with landed.
Okay, thank you. The second one, you know, net debt came in quite a bit lower. Part of that was the lower CapEx, but net debt came in about AUD 100 million lower. I think you've explained a couple of times on the call that working capital has been a driver as in the reversal of the build-up of working capital. I think cash tax was actually a lot lower as well. Two questions in that respect. One is, is there any catch-up tax to be paid in FY 2026 that we should be aware of? Secondly, s hould we be expecting any weird movements or maybe not obvious working capital movements in FY 2026?
No, so it's the first thing on the cash tax, no, there's no issue there at all. What we should be able to do is start to frank dividends partially into, probably the interim dividend in FY 2026, certainly the final dividend, somewhere in the order of 20%- 25%. We should be able to frank it, and that reflects getting back into a cash paid position in Australia for tax. That's just a normal cycle. Otherwise, not really anything else to call out on that.
Okay. Presumably, working capital levels or the ratio should be maintainable at current levels?
Yeah. I mean, what we had thought, and this is a little bit better than we were expecting because we were expecting to drive the working capital down with Gawler, but then with the transfer of the G1 volumes into Rocklea, we need to build a little bit of inventory just to support that transition. You know, that transition is now happening in July, and we would expect, as we flagged in May, the unwind of the Gawler excess inventory to continue, as per the guidance that we gave in May.
Okay, that's great. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Nathan Reilly from UBS. Please go ahead with your question.
Thanks, James. A couple of questions just around the Saverglass, the order intake, and the inventory levels. With the order intakes that you saw through December, January, and February earlier this year, can you just talk us through how you went in terms of converting those to actual sales and invoicing those sales?
Yeah. I mean, obviously, those orders do fuel the sales that we had. As we said, we finished the half a bit stronger than we thought. We certainly had a good June, which is why we're a little ahead of where we had talked about in May. We saw the conversion of that come through. Some of that is also reflected in our inventory numbers, you know, what we hold in inventory because we produce and we build that into inventory ahead of when we actually sell it to the customer. It's flowing through the profile as we would expect it to. We do still see, as we have since we've opened the business, a fair bit of movement. You know, an order will get placed, and that is a block order for production, and the offtake of that can be over quite a number of months.
Our lead time to produce it could be a number of months depending on what the product is. There's still quite a bit of movement around it, but overall, we'd say the order to sale conversion is still looking as we would expect.
Very good. Just on that point in terms of what you track on inventory being the managed customer-owned inventory, you highlight in this chart that you're sort of back to 2022 levels and you're 50% off the peak. Obviously, you track this detail, but in terms of your conversations with customers, is it now at a level where they are, I guess, getting somewhat concerned with the level of inventory that they have? When you're chatting to them, how are they feeling about their inventory requirements going forward with respect to current demand levels?
Yeah. It's different between filled inventory and empty bottle inventory. This is empty bottle inventory. In a lot of the cases, they're now down to the point where they're holding the buffer stock that they would expect to hold. Therefore, as they fill and produce product, they replace that inventory with what they produce, to the same level. It should be fairly stable and consistent, would be our expectation going forward. There are some we're still holding larger, larger amounts, and it can vary widely. Some of our bigger customers, like the likes of Grey Goose, we produce product for them effectively every month, whereas some other customers, we produce it once a year, and then they draw it down. Depending on what that offtake profile looks like. In finished inventory, we're seeing commentary that says a lot of those have now come to more normalized levels.
Again, depends on the segment. There were some wine segments. There's still a lot of finished wine or filled wine in inventory. Bourbon's probably another one in the U.S. where we're seeing a lot of the smaller distillers still holding quite a bit of inventory of filled product. It does vary, but we get reasonable visibility on it.
Okay. Thanks for that .
Our next question comes from Ben Wedd from Macquarie. Please go ahead with your question.
Hi, Brian and Sean. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe just a longer-term question here, just sort of around, I mean, a lot of your sort of larger global spirits companies have announced, you know, strategic reviews, looking at divesting assets, large cost-out programs in general. I mean, how do you sort of see, you know, your margin and your pricing opportunity in relation to that? Have you seen any sort of discussions with some of those larger customers around change of behavior or looking to, you know, become more efficient and what that sort of means for their supply chain?
Fortunately for us in the premium plus ultra premium segments, we remain a very small part of their cost base or their impost on margin. You know, the cost of the bottle is a very small component relative to the price they sell it in product for. There's less price pressure in our part of the market than there is in, let's say, the mainstream or commodity volumes in spirits. We're certainly seeing customers talk to us. They always do, by the way. This is not new news that our customer will talk to us about, do we have opportunities to take cost out? We have looked at that with some customers. You know, what can we do?
We've got some programs even around lightweighting, for example, where we can take some cost out of the bottles and not damage our margin, but give the customer some price relief and help them on sustainability. Again, we're not particularly seeing that. What we are seeing is customers still invest in NPD. I think the last number I saw, we're still in the 170-odd NPD projects that we've got in line, which is in line with even the pre-COVID numbers. We saw a peak of probably 190-odd when we had our investor day, eight months ago. We've still got a high number of activities with our customers that they pay for us to work on development programs for them. Overall, we think the medium to long term for those segments look still quite buoyant.
Yeah. Great. Thanks. Thanks, Brian. Perhaps sort of on that trend, I guess, but switching to cans, I mean, how is sort of the Helio ramp up and, you know, discussions with customers around, you know, doing more through that project going?
The ramp up is going. We're literally a week or two that we've ramped up. It is very early days, but we are now able to produce commercial volumes and commercial quality product off that new line, which is terrific. We have a strong amount of customer interest. We have quite a number of programs we're working on with customers. It'll take some time to figure out what that means from a consistent demand perspective. So far, certainly, the level of engagement with our customers is as positive, at least as positive as what we'd hoped it would be.
Great. Thanks, both.
Our final question today comes from Scott Ryall from Rimor Equity Research. Please go ahead with your question.
All right. Thanks very much. I just have one question, and it's a little bit of a follow-on from the previous one in respect to the medium to long term and your approach with customers in the fiberglass business in particular. As you say, the inventories have, I'm going to say, normalized in inverted commas and operating conditions normalized in inverted commas. What do you think you have to do to win this business over the next three to five years? Is it, you know, delivery of some of the things that your customers might want in a world where, you know, as we've said, they're focused on efficiency gains and things like that? Is it new products, through innovation? Is it new categories that you're going into?
Can you just talk a little bit about that and what directions you've given to the new CEO of Fiberglass in order for him to succeed over the next three to five years? What do you think you have to do?
Yeah. Certainly. I mean, there's a couple of items which are already key parts of the value proposition for Saverglass that will be there longer term. They are the quality is one. Fortunately, the feedback from our customers is really strong around our quality and us being the benchmark when it comes to that at that high end. That absolutely needs to be maintained. The ongoing flexibility we need relative to run sizes, a lot of what we do is very small runs, and being able to do that across a very large number of SKUs is also incredibly important. The one or, sorry, two areas where one we've got to really embark on the journey and the other is we've got to improve on the journey. The improvement one is around our NPD cycle.
We have a lot of NPD projects, but they're quite complex, quite complex designs that we work with our customers on. They can take quite a number of months relative to working through from inception through to commercializing a product. We've got to get that down. If we can do that, that'll be quite a significant game changer in the long term to help drive and fuel additional products and interest from our customers because the speed to market will be a lot faster for them. That's a change we need to make, I think, to really stamp out ourselves on that segment and the lightweighting journey. Even though these bottles are heavyweight bottles in the majority of cases, there are still opportunities to lightweight. For our largest customer, we've actually just undertaken a lightweighting program.
There's a new launch of Grey Goose bottles that are making their way around the world, which are lighter than the previous ones as part of their refresh of their design. That's something that's important. They will still end up being premium bottles and heavier bottles, but from a sustainability standpoint and a cost standpoint, being able to embark on that journey with them is critically important. Yeah, a couple of elements of opportunity for us that'll keep us at the forefront of that premium segment.
Great. Thank you.
There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Lowe for closing remarks.
Thank you, operator. Thanks, everyone, for your time today and your questions. We look forward to speaking with a number of you over the coming days to answer further questions you may have. Thanks again.
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your lines.