Thank you and good morning. I'm David Surveyor, the Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of Select Harvests. I'm here with Liam Nolan, our CFO. Welcome to our first half 2025 results presentation. The first half 2025 results presentation will be delivered by webcast on the link displayed below. That you've gone off too fast. Thank you. On the link displayed below, as advised to the ASX. After Liam and I have delivered the presentation, there will be time for questions before we commence our Investor Roadshow. To ask a question, simply raise your hand via the button on the bottom of the screen. We'll progress you through the queue and you'll be given the opportunity to ask your question.
In the event that we have questions outstanding at the end of the allotted time, please contact Andrew Angus by the email on the screen there and we'll deal with them subsequently. This next slide simply outlines the disclaimer and basis of preparation of the information contained in this presentation. In terms of the agenda, I'll start by providing a business update before handing over to Liam. We'll discuss the financial results in detail. Following Liam, I'll discuss the strategy transformation and the forward outlook before we both take questions. Next slide. Thank you. As always, the first topic we will cover is safety and sustainability. Safety remains a core focus of our operations and achieving continuous improvement is critical as we work towards zero harm and care for our people. Our TRIFR at the full year was 7.1 and in fact it's 6.3 as at today.
Our injury rate continues to trend lower. Employee safety training and competency development remains a top priority for the company. We have held numerous training sessions this year reinforcing our commitment to a skilled and safety-conscious workforce. We are also prioritizing risk assessment and contractor management as key initiatives for the remainder of the year. While safety incidents still occur, the frequency is decreasing, driven by the development of safety leaders across the organization to foster a culture of accountability and proactive safety. Moving to ESG, the Australian Accounting Standards Board is introducing new reporting standards for sustainability, climate-related risk, and financial disclosures. Select Harvests is a group to entity, so we will be required to report under these new standards starting 2027. To prepare, we are ensuring effective data management systems, completing climate analysis modeling, and aligning financial reporting processes with the expanded standards.
Now, more broadly in the ESG space, we continue our approach to the circular economy. We use hull and shell for our own energy production, with the co-generation plant providing an alternative to fossil fuels. From an emissions perspective, we've engaged an industry-leading consultancy to assess the potential for implementing microgrids across our farm network by using renewable energy solutions, including battery technologies, to enhance energy security and reduce emissions. We think we've got the potential to reduce emissions by some 30%. At our Carina West plant, we have a new drying facility which will generate 5%-10% fewer emissions compared to the current dryer once it's been commercialized. From a people perspective, we remain committed to creating an inclusive culture with a suite of policies and programs.
Our commitment to safety and sustainability remains central to our strategy as we pursue results that deliver value for all shareholders. Moving to the almond macro, the global demand and supply dynamic is in great shape. This slide provides a sense of key data and key drivers. Prices have been increasing as the long-term global macroeconomic has improved. Total global demand continues to grow with a healthy CAGR of 5%-7%. Food megatrends continue to favor healthy foods and convenience foods, both of which are positive for ours. As a comment on the global zeitgeist, we're seeing positive global sentiment towards Australian supply and less enthusiasm for U.S. supply given political tensions around the world.
In terms of unit production costs shown on the bottom left of the slide, Australia has a significant relative competitive advantage to the U.S., this being a function of operational costs and yield performance. We've used data from UC Davis in this analysis, but we've taken a very conservative approach to the size of this differential and note others have assigned high unit cost disadvantages to U.S. growers. Interestingly, North Americans at the recent International Nut Conference in Mallorca presented a position saying U.S. growers need at least $3 a pound or approximately AUD 10.30 per kg to be successful. On the supply side, California represents approximately 80% of global supply. Almond acres appear to have peaked and plantings have reduced. Australia is about 10% of global supply and our forward volumes are also reasonably flat. The time to maturity for trees is six to seven years.
In other words, the supply side cannot respond quickly to an uptick in demand. We have a very positive almond macro that is sustainable over at least the seven-year horizon. We have a relative competitive advantage where Select Harvests is well placed to benefit with very good medium to long-term pricing. If we now move to talk about our financial performance, the company has delivered a first half net profit after tax of AUD 28.7 million based on recognition of 75% of the crop at 25,250 metric tons and an additional profit on the sale of the 2024 crop. The result is an improvement of AUD 31.1 million on the previous corresponding period. Whilst the Australian crop size was disappointing, Select Harvests was able to capture the value of rising prices by keeping our operating cost base tight, and I will touch on that a bit more later.
As discussed at the full year 2024 results, there is an AUD 5.8 million gain from the sale of Waltham with a specific transaction completed in the 2025 financial year. As part of a routine review of our payroll, we have uncovered a historic underpayment of super of AUD 3.5 million going back over five years. Whilst not an immaterial amount to any given year, the auditor has advised that this should be restated in prior year results to align with the timing of the events. The CFO will provide further detail on this shortly. The board has also determined that there will be no interim dividend paid, with a decision on the full year to be made at the time of closing of the annual accounts. Pricing remains positive with a full year forecast price of AUD 10.35, with 86% of the crop hedged at AUD 64.86.
Operating cash flow has improved by AUD 30.7 million year on year, and we've seen the benefit of collecting the money delayed from last year's logistics issue. This offset partially by the corresponding payments to third-party growers for that crop. It's also worth noting that the second half of 2025 will see the benefit of the current year crop sales, wholesales, and third-party volumes. The first half CapEx increased with cash spent primarily on new shakers and the Optimus capacity expansion at the Carina West facility. Noting, of course, that any water sales and purchases essentially offset each other in terms of dollar amounts. With respect to net debt, the company's balance sheet is in good shape, with mid-year debt reduced to AUD 168 million, enduring at 32% versus 58% in the prior year. Operating cash flow is supported by higher prices.
However, as previously described, we have in a rising market consciously slowed sales on the margin to maximize profitability. We are now back to full sales velocity and debt will unwind further as sales receipts come in. We have no logistics issues. Banking refinancing is now in place with an AUD 240 million facility with three- and five-year terms, and Liam will talk to you about that more fulsomely as we go forward. Move to the next slide. What I'd like to do is now talk to you about three of our key results drivers, and we'll start with volume. The Select Harvests crop forecast remains at 24,000 tons-26,500 tons, and we've used the midpoint of 25,250 tons in our financial results.
Clearly a disappointing crop, our situation is reflective of the broader Australian crop for the year, and we have seen the Almond Board of Australia also publish a similar reduction in crop size. The 2025 crop was grown under the old horticultural strategy, and that may have seen tree resources overextended without enough fertilizer, resulting in the non-pareil variety producing less fruit and a lower backup rate. We lost some 500 tons to frost and ultimately had a bloom that did not quite deliver. It's too early days to put a forecast number around the pollinator crop, but we do not expect the 2025 crop to have an impact on future years. Recent years have also seen volatility in crop volume, so defending our farming assets is also part of our strategy.
During the 2024-2025 crop year, we commenced improving the drainage at Pine Gulcher, which had been suffering from wet feet. This need had been identified at the time of purchase of the farm, and we're now underway, and we have more drainage being done. The company has also decided to invest AUD 2.2 million at Mount View to improve drainage and replant a small 12-hectare section of the farm, and we're similarly looking at our Belvedere farm to see if an investment in further drainage makes sense, again along with a small replant. We're also increasing our drying capacity at Carina West to ensure we maximise crop value and ultimately volume. Whilst the 2025 crop has been an off-year, the new horticultural strategy has largely been deployed.
The tree health is positive, and 2026 is the first year when we should see the horticultural practice benefits manifest in a better crop yield. If we move on to the next slide, please. Select Harvests' full year price forecast, as mentioned, is AUD 10.35. This remains current and is being sustained by the existing low levels of uncommitted inventory and the subjective USDA $2.8 billion crop forecast. Globally, U.S. and retaliatory tariffs are bouncing around a little bit. Where they exist, they are favorable for Select Harvests. For example, China currently sits at 45%, but we view these tariffs as a possible enrichment to existing prices, and they are not the cause of our high existing prices. We are right now experiencing the next surge in demand, particularly in our key India and China markets.
In India, with tight U.S. supply, it means that Australian almonds will be essential for meeting the peak Diwali demand period. Prices for low-grade almonds have reached five-year highs due to limited buyer positions and strong E.U. demand. We've also seen the bakery segment have robust growth in Southeast Asia and China, and that's driving demand for Select Harvests' value-add products, with some prices at the AUD 14 per kg range, albeit on a low volume. Select Harvests' pricing is outperforming our tariff-adjusted strata market benchmark, as shown in the chart at the bottom of this page. This is underpinned by improvements in sales discipline and data to leverage tariff differentials and by using our enhanced direct relationships with customers. With tightening global supply and rising demand in China, India, and Southeast Asia, pricing is expected to remain firm.
My having several times in recent years made the comment that price will not always move in a straight line, but I certainly argue the macro dynamics will, for the next several years, show a strong price environment for almonds, and it's our view there is more price to come. Let's move on to the next slide, please, and production costs. Total production costs are the cost of growing, harvesting, and processing. An important part of the company strategy has been driving productivity gains. To enable a fair year-on-year assessment of costs, we always normalize the data to a 29,000 tonne volume, and in 2025, this is running at AUD 6.77 per kg. Or in other words, you can see that for the last three years, we have held cost discipline despite both inflation and ongoing investment in our horticultural program.
There are some notable improvements in cost capture through our PMO in the year to date, with increased labor efficiency, lower harvest R&M, reduced processing costs, and spray efficiencies. A negative impact is the increasing lease and amortization of capitalized development costs for trees, which is AUD 4.3 million, and that has been more than offset by our cost savings. Now let me hand over to Liam for a more detailed run-through of the financials.
Thank you, David. The 2025 first half earnings, with a net PAT of AUD 28.7 million, is a marked improvement from the prior corresponding period. First half earnings are based on 75% of the estimated 2025 crop, which is consistent with the approach in 2024. 75% is estimated to have been harvested, and the fair value is included in inventory in accordance with accounting standards.
Driven by a 37.6% increase in almond price, PMO initiatives exceeding inflation headwinds, Select Harvests is well positioned to take advantage of the favorable macroeconomic conditions in 2025 and beyond. As you can see from the EBITDA bridge, the lower 2025 volume is more than offset by the higher almond price. The 2025 half also includes one-off items, including AUD 5.8 million profit on sale of water rights and around AUD 2 million of one-off costs relating to items, which include investment in areas such as our process redesign of order to cash, which is including automation, sales reporting uplift, activity-based costing study, recruitment, and legal costs. As we move to the balance sheet, highlighted by a reduction in the gearing ratio from 58%- 32.7% following the 2024 capital raise. After adjusting for the capital raise, net debt is marginally higher than the prior corresponding period.
This is largely due to higher capital expenditure in the first half following low 2024 capital spend. Key items include new harvest shakers, project Optimus, refurbishment of key horticultural equipment, and improved drainage in our farms. Net debt at March is heading towards the seasonal peak, and with improved 2025 earnings, we expect our 30 September net debt number to improve as the 2025 crop receipts come in over the final quarter of 2025. I note that the market value of our land processing facility and water rights exceeds our book value by over AUD 175 million. Our debt covenants have been met at March, and we expect them to be met over the next 12 months. Our operating cash flow for the first half has benefited from higher crop sales, lower borrowing costs as a result of lower debt post-capital raise.
As previously mentioned, the higher investing cash flow is largely due to increased capital spent. We expect a strong second half cash flow driven by the high earnings and improved supply chain performance. I'm pleased to announce that Select Harvests has finalized a binding agreement with our lenders regarding the renegotiation and extension of our debt facilities as part of the first half results. The refinancing involves an enhancement of the existing facilities with the following attributes: AUD 240 million in funding, with the addition of a third bank to the syndicate, two tranches of funding, AUD 150 million for a three-year term, and a second tranche of AUD 90 million for a five-year term. These two factors help mitigate refinancing risk and demonstrate strong support for Select Harvests from our lenders.
Some additional highlights of the funding arrangement include improved pricing and more favorable covenant terms and conditions, and we'd like to express our appreciation for the continued support of our existing banking partners and the new banking partner. Following an internal payroll review, Select Harvests discovered an error in superannuation payments that dates back to 2020. The expected cash impact of this underpayment is AUD 3.5 million, which includes the underpayment, interest, and penalties. The entire amount is expected to be non-deductible for tax purposes. The underpayment dates back to an error in 2020. I note that prior internal audits had been undertaken to this change and have specifically tested payroll issues. Due to the materiality of the amount, the 2024 accounts have been restated, with AUD 2.9 million adjusted through opening retained earnings and AUD 600,000 through the profit and loss in 2024, with a provision created on the balance sheet.
While disappointed with the error, Select Harvests is committed to ensuring employees are appropriately remunerated and is undertaking an independent assessment, which will validate the amount and rectify amounts owed to impacted individuals as quickly as practical. Select Harvests has disclosed this matter to the Australian Taxation Office. During the preparation of the half-year results, management also uncovered an error in the 2024 audited accounts. The error is a gross up of revenue and cost of goods sold of AUD 43 million. The internal controls in place were not adequate to prevent this error from occurring. While there is no impact on EBITDA, net PAT, retained earnings, or cash flow of the business, the error was preventable. Management has subsequently put in further controls around this specific issue. One of the company key strategic enablers to support the strategic pillars is technology.
Both these issues that I've mentioned are examples of where we can use technology and improve processes to take out manual tasks. We are focused on investing in technology to improve efficiency and accuracy of our processes, and these include payroll and accounting tasks. David, I'll hand over to you for the strategy and transformation.
Thank you. One more slot. Thank you. I think if we move back to talk about strategy and strategy execution specifically, the company has four very clear priorities. The first is about having substantially greater almond volumes. The second is leadership in processing scale and efficiency. The third is about maximizing returns from the crop. The fourth is about innovating to drive step-out growth. The traffic lights show performance, and the white dots are areas that were not prior priorities.
This year, we've continued, I think, to make substantial progress in execution. The first strategic priority, of course, is increasing almond volumes. Now, unfortunately, the 2025 Australian crop has not built off the 2024 success. We view that as a one-off. The strategy has us driving for increased crop productivity with better yields. We have, over the 2025 crop growing period, enacted better practices, more fertiliser, better bee placement, and better foliage spray management, and you can see it in the trees. As you know, growing is a two-year cycle, so our 2025 actions support growing the 2026 crop year, which is now commenced. We expect the first results of our horticultural strategy should come through the 2026 crop. As we benchmark our farm performance against others, we remain confident we'll get more yield. The price for improvement is substantial.
Secondly, we have continued to increase our external volumes on a like-for-like growing basis. We added a small increase in third-party volumes in 2025, but of course, that is impacted by the smaller Australian crop size. For 2026, we currently have existing supply of about 12,000 tonnes with more to be contracted. We are also using our farming scale to reduce costs as we improve on-farm efficiency for sprays, seasonal labor, and simplify our organization design. Our midstream processing has changed scale and efficiency. As with farms, processing productivity gains are seeing costs down: less line stops, lower packaging costs, lower labor costs. Having successfully completed our first phase increase in the Carina West facility by 30% to 40,000 tonnes, we are running the plant at the target speed, which on a smaller 2025 crop will mean we run faster and keep the operating costs tight.
We are now executing the next phase with a further 10,000 tonne increase in capacity to 50,000 tonnes, which will be available from 2026. What I do not want you to miss is that for around a total of AUD 6 million over two expansion phases, Select Harvests will have added almost an entire plant's worth of capacity. That greenfield would cost approximately AUD 100 million to build. Whilst the focus of the Carina West processing facility is on capacity, it should not be missed that we have also improved facility yield. That means less damage on stock pads, less product on the floor, fewer chips and scratches, and we are experiencing fewer complaints, with the year-to-date number sitting at eight customer complaints, and we are getting positive customer feedback around our performance. Our sales organization is also changing to maximize returns from the crop.
The improvements we have made in sales capability mean that we are confident around sales velocity. The changes, as we have previously discussed, include expanding our customer base so that it is broad enough to consume an increased volume of supply from Select Harvests. This is for not only the top end of the quality range, but also the bottom end of the quality range, which can be harder to place. We have added customers in Spain and Turkey. For value added, we are expanding into overseas markets. It is early days, but we are making sales into China, the U.K., and Thailand with sliced and meal products. We are also continuing to develop our value chains by selling more volume through direct supply with larger end customers. We have increased direct supply again, and it is currently running at about 50% of our year-to-date total sales.
These actions have created more space for Select Harvests to focus on maximizing price. As you saw coming through on the pricing slide earlier, that has real potential, and it is quite an exciting shift because it is showing some movement beyond Select Harvests and our industry being a price taker. It does need more time for us to be confident it is embedded. Similarly, we also have work going on at Costa Surve so that we pass on and consider pricing elements that add cost in a way that we have not previously done. A simple example being charging for the extra cost of creating part or mixed pallet orders for domestic customers. I also mentioned logistics earlier, and it is a pleasing shift. We have improved end-to-end efficiency for managing logistics such that we range from 17%- 27% faster per shipment.
We have low error rates on documents, and we have zero document backlogs for any landed ships. We have no demurrage issues and no customer complaints. In fact, we have customers now complimenting our documents, our efficiency, and our communications. From a step-out growth perspective, we have no M&A activity happening, and we have no immediate plans for it. The focus is to maximize the existing operation, and we think there is substantial upside leverage in our base business. Finally, we have added the enabling pillar. We have previously communicated we have some legacy back office issues to fix, and you can see the impact of that in Liam's section of the presentation. As part of our broader digital enablement strategy, we are investing in the automation of core back office processes, with a particular focus on streamlining the order-to-cash and procure-to-pay cycles.
This includes the development of a proof-of-concept order entry application, enhancements to our export documentation by integration with our ERP, and the automation of invoice processing. In parallel, we're undertaking an uplift in our operational performance. Sorry. We are undertaking an uplift in our operational reporting through a structured data capture, enabling more timely and accurate insights to support decision-making and performance management. We moved to talk about our PMO. We continue to use the Project Management Office to drive outcomes and set cadence within the business. The PMO in 2025 has created AUD 20 million of value. That, of course, is offset against the challenges all Australian businesses face with inflation, so the net gain is about AUD 8 million. Our key forward-facing PMO activities are about the Carina West processing capacity expansion, our sales margin optimization, and the 2026 crop. Let's move on to talk about the forward outlook.
This year has once more proven crop forecasting is a fool's errand. With non-parallel essential processing, we have commenced processing our pollinator varieties. We have only one weighbridge code completed for pollinators, and it was within the expected range. However, there is not enough data to form a view on trends. Therefore, our crop remains forecast in the 24,000-26,500 tonne range. Our view on the California crop remains consistent. We think they've reached peak acres. Existing inventory is tight. The forward subjective forecast is $2.8 billion. We think that number is neutral for prices and suspect, given some of the weather during bloom, bee colony deaths that occurred and some of the anecdotes we hear out of the U.S., that that number is possibly at the top of the range.
We'll need to see what actually happens with the 2025 crop, but we think the macro view is enduring, and it's positive. From a margin perspective, prices have been excellent. With tight inventory and strong demand in India and China, we remain positive about pricing. Select continues to manage its costs and seek gains through the PMO, all of which leaves us with a positive sense of the second half of 2025. I think to bring this together in terms of key messages, we're very pleased to report a meaningful increase in profitability despite the lower crop. We continue the momentum with our transformation strategy. Our focus is on growing, processing, and selling as efficiently as we can. The balance sheet's in good shape, and it will stay strong. With an enduring strong macro, it's a positive environment for Select to deliver high returns to shareholders.
Let me now hand back over to Andrew to run the questions process for all of us.
Thanks, David. We've got a number of questions here. First is Josh Kannourakis from Barrenjoey. Josh.
Thanks, Andrew. Hi, David and Liam. Can you guys hear me okay?
Yes, we can. Good morning.
Good morning. Firstly, just wanted to ask, just to help us bridge out a little bit around the first half and second half movements. If we sort of take out a few of those one-offs and align for the corporate costs, align for the 75%, it sort of looks like almond results are looking around sort of low 80s or 80 for the full year. I guess the big delta is just understanding value added, third-party processing, and wholesales.
Can you help us sort of understand a little bit around the timing of those in terms of first half, second half, and how we should be thinking about those incrementally into the second half?
Yeah. Do you want to answer that, or would you like me to? Yeah. I'm happy to have the first go. In terms of hull and shell sales, Josh, they are all weighted to the second half as we progress through the season. The sale of those occurs in the back end of our financial year. The second element in terms of our processing fees for third-party growers, they also are weighted towards the back end. We've previously provided guidance around AUD 1 a kilo sort of in that space of earnings. That is why we see an improvement in the second half earnings.
Of course, then you've got the final thing to add to that, sorry, is you've got the back half of our crop sales for this year will obviously start to flow through. Things are on boats, things are landing, and then things are subsequently paid through in the back half.
Yep. No, that makes sense. You've got all of that coming through in the second half. In terms of the corporate cost, I mean, obviously, you mentioned that they're about on a half basis, about AUD 3 million higher. What does that look like if you normalize out for the AUD 3 million higher in the first half? What are you thinking broadly for the full year corporate costs, guys?
Yeah.
In terms of items that are essentially one-offs, as I've alluded to, we've made some pretty serious investment in a few areas, and we talked about order-to-cash and procure-to-pay. There has been a heavier weighting to those in the first half. We would expect to see those not repeat to the same level in the second half.
Okay. Got it. No, that's very helpful. Second question, just with regard to the new debt package as well, could you give us a bit of context, maybe just how you guys are sort of thinking about the scope of that sort of pricing improvement, if you could give us any sort of context on that and just how we should be thinking about the paydown of debt over the next 12-24 months?
There are two elements, I think, there that I'm hearing, Josh.
One is in terms of the pricing of the debt, and the second is our approach to repayment of debt over the next 12 months. In terms of the pricing, we've got improved fee structure that's coming through that is material, a lot lower than the existing arrangement. The three-year money specifically is much lower. The five-year money was about the same. The elements of that are that it provides a reduced refinance risk going forward and spreads the maturity, which is favorable for Select Harvests going forward. In terms of our debt repayments, at the moment, in terms of excess cash, we will be planning to manage and have a lower debt going forward as we have our cash coming in over the next 12 months. That's part of the company strategy.
Perfect.
Into that second half, how should we sort of look about the sort of interest cost on the business? It was sort of 5.3 in the first. How different should that be into the second half?
There are two elements that will be coming through. There is a lower margin coming through, but also we have had interest rates drop. BBSY has not moved significantly, but it is down a little bit. We should also see we are at our peak debt at the moment. The final quarter should see our working capital improve as the cash receipts come in. I would expect interest expense to be lower than the first half.
Okay. I will give someone else a go. Oh, yeah. Sorry. Yeah. Thanks, guys.
Thanks, Josh.
David, we have a question from Apuf Sagal from UBS. Hey.
Good morning, Apuf.
Hey. Good morning, guys.
You can hear me okay?
Yes, we can, sir.
Yep.
Brilliant. David, first question. You've managed the cost base well this year, which is good to see. That all looks pretty in line with our expectations. Looking sort of a bit more forward, looking ahead to FY 2026, I know you're really focused on getting yields up, getting volumes back to sort of 30,000 tonnes plus. That obviously involves kind of more fertiliser, more water usage, more bees on farm. Given those factors, if we are starting to look a bit ahead to sort of 2026, should we expect a more material step up in the cost base in terms of total dollar cost, just given some of those factors to drive yields up in 2026?
Yeah. It's an interesting question, Apuf.
There's no doubt we have, in any case, over the last year or so, been putting on more fert, more water, more bees. That has created some additional costs. There are various activities that have allowed us to sort of consume the cost increases of that. Our cost downs have equaled the upsides related to that. I mean, the big question going forward is, you're right, there is probably a little bit more fertiliser to go on. We've got to find a solution to that problem as we look forward. The other unknown, of course, is where do fertiliser prices go going forward. I don't think I can predict that number just yet. The other one that will sit in people's mind will be the price of water, because the price of water is actually increasing at the moment.
It's probably going up from what is about an average of AUD 150 or thereabouts for this year. It's probably sitting today for spot water at about AUD 300 a me. That certainly will be a cost pressure that we need to think about how we get on top of in terms of the forward-facing piece. Of course, none of that will greatly affect the 2025 financial result, but it could have some impact on 2026 in terms of where your mind's going. I think we're going to have to wait to see how much rain comes down over winter to see what that does to water levels, because we've seen a lot of rain in New South Wales. It doesn't particularly flow down to the Murray-Darling Basin, but we are starting to see also some wetter weather across Victoria over the last little period of time.
If we get, I think, some wet weather, I think you will not see that number increase. In fact, it could come down from 300. If it is a dry period, it may well sit around the AUD 300-AUD 350 mark. That will be something that we will have to think about as we think about our cost initiatives through the business.
Got it. Okay. No, thanks for the detail. Next question. The tariff situation has obviously been a tailwind for the almond price that you guys have received. If we get a bigger or a complete rollback in the tariff situation on China, do you think a scenario like that could see almond prices for Australian growers pull back in a meaningful way?
I think if we take—not particularly is my immediate answer, but then let's just sort of pull the question apart.
I think if you take China, there's a lot of flux in China in terms of where tariffs are at. We've had for a long period of time a tariff that's been operating at about the 25% level. We then saw U.S. tariffs from retaliatory responses that took it up to about 160% for a short period of time. It is currently sitting back at about 45%. One of the things about the Australian almond industry, whether the number's been at 25—if I use 25% actually as the baseline for starting this. Whilst that tariff might have been at 25%, the Australian almond industry has never been able to gather all of the value of that 25%. It's typically been able to get about half of it.
As we've seen with what's now at about 40%-45%, there may be a smidgen more that we get, but it's not really material. I think what we would say is the tariff issue so far has almost been, to quote somebody else's line, the icing on the cherry on the top of the nut sundae. It hasn't been the driver of prices as we've seen them. We think the underlying macroeconomics are driving prices. There's potential a little bit of upside to come from tariffs, but I think China particularly has had so much up and down movement, we haven't really seen a lot of change because neither buyer nor seller knows quite where to pitch their price and how to deal with it at the moment.
Okay. Interesting.
My last question, David, could you just remind us how your geographic sales mix looks at the moment, like domestic versus exports, but then within exports specifically, just sort of split out what China's looking like at the moment and how that's changed?
Our sales mix is very much orientated towards export. If you went to last year, our sales mix was sort of 50% into China, and we, in fact, ramped up our China focus. This year, it'll probably sit in that, and sort of India and the sort of therefore is in the sort of about 30% range. As you go to this year, we'll probably see that China percentage and India percentage be roughly the same, but it could be 5% in either direction.
Got it. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.
Apuf.
Next question is from Paul Jensz at PAC Partners. Paul Jensz, over to you.
Thanks, Andrew. Thanks, David and Liam. Firstly, just clarifying the 75% number that Liam mentioned, is that 75% of products being sold and effectively FOB, and that's, I suppose, setting the 75%, or is there something else setting that 75% for the first half of the almonds?
Hi, Paul. Yeah. The 75% represents the accounting methodology that's used to determine the amount of inventory that we've recognized at its fair value. It essentially takes the midpoint of our crop estimate of 25,250 tonnes, which is the midpoint, and we determine a fair value of that inventory. It's 75% of it. With the remaining 25%, we expect to recognize in the second half.
Okay. With that in mind, how much have you physically sold?
Yeah.
The 2025 crop sales, we've got committed sales at the moment of broadly 60% is essentially the current estimated of the 2025 crop. That does not have a bearing to how the accounting requires us to value our inventory.
It does affect your cash flow, obviously.
Absolutely. Yeah. Absolutely. Yes.
Okay. I appreciate that. Supplementary question to what I told Andrew. With the cost base, and it might be in both of your camps, on page six, you talk about the 677 and the Californian one. I'm interested in how you account for the capital and whether you've got the operating leases in that because it does have a big bearing.
It does.
The replanting costs.
The Select Harvests number at 677 includes our lease costs and growing and harvesting and processing.
With the Californian piece, if you go and look at the supplemental value of that.
Yeah. That's good. I can sort that one out.
That's good. Perfect. What we have done is we've extracted from that UC Davis work, we've extracted some of the things that relate to the capital charges, cash capital charges that they've put on farming because they're not sort of in the operational costs. From a Select Harvests perspective, they sit in our full P&L balance sheet. They do not sit as an operating comparison. We've pulled some things back to try and ensure that they line up reasonably between the US cost base and the Select Harvests cost base. With that 677.
In other words, we've been very gentle in the way that we've described the cost differential because if you use the UC Davis data that you're looking at, you'll get a much, much bigger number in terms of their cost position.
Okay. I appreciate those two answers. Thank you very much.
Next question that we've got is from Mark Topy at Select Equities. Mark, over to you.
Just to follow up on, and this might be a little unfair, but the courts in the U.S. have struck out Trump's tariffs. I'm just wondering, is there any likelihood this might lead to market disruption? How would you see that in terms of there's still some time to how this plays out? Is it possible the traders might pull back in terms of the buying? Or do you think the buying is pretty solid coming out of China?
I think, first of all, we've seen a—and I mentioned it actually during my comments—we are absolutely seeing globally a preference for non-U.S. supply at the moment, which is an interesting comment, as I said, in terms of where the sort of population's outcast is around the politics around the world. We have certainly seen that, which we think favors our position. I think when you saw that massive spike up in up to that sort of 160% tariff piece, we got a little bit of drawing breath and pause out of China. As much of that is uncertainty around what's going on. I think where there's been uncertainty, there's possibly been a little bit of slowing.
Actually, when we look at the rate that we're contracting, and if I had specifically thought about the rate that we have been selling over the last couple of weeks, we've got people taking orders at a real clip. We're seeing no slowdown in our sales. In fact, we've got a really good acceleration happening at the moment.
Right. Do you detect any sensitivity to the prices, that almond price increases, product substitution, and does not sound like it? Is there a level where the price is where that might occur in markets like China and India?
I think there's a possibility, Mark, I think on the margins, that you could get a substitution effect where if someone's doing a—I'm making this up now—but someone's doing a chocolate bar and they were using almonds, and you can imagine at some point that might move to cashews or some other nut. Typically, for branded-based products, people are going to have limited ability to change the ingredients that sit within their product. It is possible, I think, on the margin, you could get a change over time. I do not think actually there's any likelihood of material demand destruction in this environment.
Right. Just precisely then on that mixing, what's the sort of mixing between India and China? I think India has been in the market quite strongly in recent times.
Yeah.
In terms of demand, particularly out of India, we've seen probably more activity out of India than China because of this tariff issue and that pause that I was mentioning a moment ago. We are seeing good volume and inquiry out of both. The India issue, as I also mentioned, is you've got Diwali coming up, and there is not inventory sitting in the U.S., or not enough of it at least. India needs product to be supplied in Diwali's October this year. The likelihood of getting their 2025 crop to India in time is limited. You see a real focus coming on Australian supply.
Sorry. Just lastly, looking in that last 40%, how quickly or how do you envisage the timing on that now of forward sales? Yeah.
Yeah.
Without giving you an explicit number, we have a forecast rate that we run our sales cadence to. We've been exceeding that for the last several weeks, and we've got a sales cadence that runs us out. We look to have most of our product contracted by probably week 45 at the latest, so sort of end of July, start of August.
Got it. All right. Terrific. Okay. Thanks for your time there.
Thanks, Mark.
David, we've got James Ferrier from Wilsons Advisory. James, over to you.
Thanks, Andrew. Hi, David, Liam. Thanks for your time today.
Good morning.
Can I ask you, first of all, slide 19, where you were talking there about the sales velocity and the point about sort of consciously going a bit slower this year given the profile of the almond price market.
How do you think that's going to impact year-end net debt in FY 2025 versus what might be expected under a normal crop sales timing cycle?
It's a good question. I think when we've slides, one of the things that we've spoken about from a Select Harvests perspective is that it's important that we keep a good cadence and rhythm to continually selling our crops so we have the cash generation within the business. We'd say that if you've got a sudden opportunistic ability around price, which has obviously been the case in recent weeks and months, we might, on the margin, slow down our sales. That slowdown's really been on the margin rather than in the main. In terms of what we think it'll be impact on full-year cash, I don't think it'll impact full-year cash.
We should have sold everything in this back half that we were planning to sell and have the cash in the bank. That's our expectation. Certainly, it's the pressure that we're putting on ourselves to deliver. I'm not expecting it to have any impact on full-year.
Yeah. Okay. No, that's helpful because I guess in a normal cycle, full-year net debt is materially below the first half. Just based on your earlier comments, I wasn't sure whether you are anticipating full-year net debt to be sort of similar to that historical profile or whether you're only expecting a modest reduction in full-year net debt versus the half-year balance.
Yeah. No, no. A good question, and it shouldn't impact the full-year position.
Okay. Thank you.
Second question is just looking at the decision of the board not to declare an interim dividend and why that would be given where the balance sheet is now, the almond price is going up well above cost of production, far better profitability on the P&L. Just some color on why the board arrived at that decision.
I think it does not reflect any hidden issue or hidden message in any of that. All it reflects is the company trying to be very prudent that we have got a half-year position, which is great, and we are pleased around that. We want to delay making an actual decision on dividends until we get the final set of accounts.
Yeah. Okay. Understood.
When you think about the almond price, and I guess if we think about it on the equivalent crop mix in terms of variety, quality, grade, etc., that you're assuming in that AUD 10.35 almond price forecast, on a like-for-like basis, where do you see the spot price now, and how have you seen that spot price move over the past couple of months?
Yeah. That's a good question too. I think we've continued to see some increases in price over the last period of time. It's perhaps slowed a little bit in the last week or two. If you went to the issue about conversations of price need to be within a couple of—I'll give you a number in a minute—but a couple of things that you need to think about. One is we have to sell the entire tree.
There is a range from high quality to low quality as you're looking at prices. Those different quality levels come at different price points. The other issue is that when we're giving a AUD 10.35 price, we're giving you a view of our average price over the year. You've got to remember that the year started at about AUD 7.70 or thereabout. That said, to answer your question, we have seen some non-pareil in-shell sales at around the AUD 13 mark. That is a pretty attractive and high price. We've seen some kernel sales also in the mid-AUD 12s. We've seen some pollinator supremes at that 23-25 size, the AUD 12.50-AUD 12.70 numbers. We've seen some standard fives also at the mid-AUD 11 type numbers.
There is no doubt we have seen some good, strong prices in terms of the today current price.
Yeah. That is helpful. Thanks, David. The last question, maybe one for Liam, just on the fair value allocation between first half, second half. Can I confirm that is effectively done at the EBITDA line? The D&A expense, as an example, is more of a 50/50 allocation, first half, second half?
Yes. That is spot on. Yes. Correct.
Okay. Great. Thanks, Liam.
David, we are running out of time now, so I think we might wind that up. Any outstanding questions that we have got, I will contact those people involved and deal with it separately. Thank you for your time and your participation in the Select Harvests first half 2025 results webcast.
Yes. Thank you very much, everyone.
We greatly appreciate you dialing in and being interested to where the company is at and your questions. Thank you.