Investor webinar. I'm Paul Armstrong from Read Corporate. Thanks very much for joining us. Sunstone has just published a scoping study on its Bramaderos gold-copper project in Ecuador. The study put out some great numbers, NPV of $2.7 billion at spot prices. That compares with the company's current market cap of about AUD 80 million. The payback period put at just 19 months. Of course, Bramaderos is just one of two major projects Sunstone holds in Ecuador. It also has the El Palmar copper-gold project in the north of the country, but today's focus will be Bramaderos. Managing Director Patrick Duffy will lead this presentation, and he's also going to be joined by CFO Lucas Welsh and Ray Robinson, who's the General Manager of Studies and Technical Services at Sunstone. When the guys are finished going through their presentation, they're more than happy to take questions.
If you click on the Q&A tab on your screen and send them through, we'll put them to the guys afterwards. Over to you, Patrick.
Good morning, everybody, and fantastic to have everybody online today. Before we start, just an important emphasis around the disclaimer. This is a scoping study and not a feasibility study, so appropriate levels of assurance should be taken on account of that fact. But, equally, the process design and process CapEx, and processing costs were performed by Ausenco, which is a Tier 1 engineering house and critical to the overall quality of this scoping study. If I just go to the highlights. Clearly this is a sort of pivotal time in the sort of development of Sunstone and as we progress from explorer towards advanced exploration and development. Amazing result. Credit to the team, highlighting that there's initially a 23-year mine life at Bramaderos. In a porphyry ore body that sort of presents very low risk geology, very predictable and very bankable.
Across that 23-year mine life, the first eight years is 135,000 oz per annum and averaging over 120,000 oz per annum gold equivalent for the life of mine. All-in sustaining costs of $1,499 per ounce, which puts it in the sort of realms of Ramelius and Capricorn as top tier gold companies on the ASX. Crucial to that low all-in sustaining cost is the very low stripping ratio, one of the lowest in the industry is at 1.4 x. Also, the very low cost base in Ecuador with labor, energy, fuel, all being much lower than what we would experience here in Australia. The Ausenco design incorporates a 10 million ton per annum SAG ball mill circuit, including flotation and leach to produce both a gold-copper concentrate and a gold doré. As Paul highlighted, some exceptional economics.
We've provided both a base case and a spot case, but that base case using a $3,500 gold price, has an after-tax NPV of $0.9 billion or AUD 1.2 billion. At the spot case of $5,000 gold price, AUD 2.7 billion, which is over 30 x our current market cap. In addition to the scoping study, we still have immense growth potential in the inventory. We believe it will be at least 10 million ounces in resource as we continue to grow the current 3.6-million-ounce resource. Once in production, the opportunity is then to expand using cash flow to anywhere from 20 million-30 million tons per annum. Then finally, it's in as good a location as you'll find in South America to develop a large-scale project like this. Infrastructure is all there on the Pan American Highway.
We have great support from a very remote community here in Southern Ecuador. Just some key metrics here that I've probably covered most of these. Again, confidence in the process design recoveries. An amazing job done by Ausenco, that supports both the capital and the operating costs, and we've already covered the economics. Just next steps and looking forward and unlocking future growth potential. We're looking to commence some of the work streams around the PFS in 2026 and 2027. There's a few elements we want to complete as part of an optioneering exercise before launching into that PFS. There's huge opportunities around further metallurgical test work to further optimize both the flow sheet and recoveries and the cost base. We are drilling at the moment at Bramaderos, two rigs operating, looking to grow the resource in 2026, potentially from 3.6 million ounces over 5 million ounces this year.
Clearly long term, there's much higher growth. With that resource growth, there's a potential for longer term expansion once in production and using that cash flow to fund the sort of longer-term potential while we're forecasting 135,000 oz per annum. There's easily scale there for 300,000 oz-400,000 oz per annum, which makes it a very attractive project. We've been going through a series of building blocks in the last six months. One of the critical steps was the resource update that we did back in November last year. We upgraded the resource from 2.7 million ounces to 3.6 million ounces. It's in a pit-constrained resource, which is the basis for the scoping study. Importantly, 600,000 oz of that resource are now indicated, which is critical to satisfying the ASX requirements. Just to highlight on this figure here on the left.
That's Bramaderos and Copete in the blue. The bottom left is where we're currently drilling and looking to expand the resource this year. Some quotes here from the announcement, but for me, more importantly, if you just look in the background, Melonal, which is one of the three deposits, part of the resource and part of the mine plan. You can see the mineralization at surface there on the left of Melonal. It's this contiguous cluster of porphyry deposits that will become one very large super pit over time. Virtually no pre-strip and a stripping ratio of 1.4 x in the base of this valley, 900 m above sea level. Really, this is a miner's dream. It's one of the most straightforward mining opportunities you'll ever see. I'll just hand over to Ray Robinson to walk through the technical aspects. Over to you, Ray.
Thanks, Patrick. Bramaderos, it's a simple low-risk mining profile. It's underpinned by well-understood porphyry geology, supporting a straightforward low-risk mining operation. Mineralization occurs in large continuous ore bodies rather than narrow or complex veins. This enables bulk mining and minimal dilution as well. This style of mining is widely used in South America, and we've used comparable porphyry projects to provide the benchmark operating costs. This gives us great confidence in our forecast OpEx for mining. In terms of process, Ausenco estimated both the CapEx and the operating costs for the flow sheet and plant design and supported the calculation of the metallurgical recoveries. The flow sheet is flotation, but it's also followed by leaching of 100% of the rougher flotation tails. This flow sheet is close to the Boddington flow sheet and, to a lesser extent, Telfer.
As well as the Ausenco bottom-up estimate, we also use Boddington and Telfer as useful benchmarks. Of note in this, though, is there's also clear potential to reduce processing costs as we continue to understand metallurgy and continue to undertake metallurgical testing. Bramaderos is delivering 135,000 gold equivalent ounces over the first eight years and over 120,000 over the life of mine. As we've said, it's benefiting from that low strip ratio of 1.4x. We're showing the recoveries and annual production profile in the graph. Ausenco prepared the process plant CapEx and processing costs. The site is in a great location. It is accessible from a paved access road almost to the plant gate. We've got close sources of water. We've got several power options, multiple port options, and two ports with existing concentrate shipping facilities.
The assumed power option is a combined LNG renewable build-own-operate project, similar to many suppliers in WA. We'll look at other options in the PFS. The mining operating costs and G&A costs were benchmarked against similar operations and cost jurisdictions. We obviously experience that lower relative Ecuador input cost profile for labor and energy, and Lucas will speak a bit more to that later. Our development pathway shows the exploration phase continuing while studies move to PFS. The PFS will have a strong optioneering focus. The optioneering is designed for the requirements of EIA documentation in our environmental permit. We'll lodge the permit documentation during the DFS stage, and more detailed design will also continue during the DFS. Permitting is expected to take 12-18 months, and that'll overlap with the DFS. Early works will include purchase of long lead items, bulk earthworks for the process plant.
Construction period of 18 months is envisaged, with production commencing in 2031. Thanks.
Yeah. Thanks, Ray. For the base case, we have used a long-term consensus gold price of $3,500 an ounce, which is a reasonably conservative outlook given that's around $1,300 below the current spot. When we look at the all-in sustaining cost of $1,499 per ounce, this project is still achieving a $2,000 per ounce margin to the base case price and almost $3,500 to the current spot. Even at this conservative base case price, and without factoring in the likely resource growth we expect to see, results in an NPV of $0.9 billion. Another important aspect is the reasonably quick payback that we see of 34 months in the base case. When looking at the current spot, the payback of 19 months is outstanding. Here we show some sensitivities at various U.S. dollar gold prices.
We can see that at most prices, the project is robust. This is even when considering this is based on our current mineral resource only. Thinking about costs, as we mentioned a couple of times, the OpEx and CapEx really does benefit from Ecuador's favorable economic environment. Being able to produce its own oil, Ecuador is able to reasonably absorb global oil shocks better. Electricity generated by hydropower. These factors provide benefits in energy pricing compared with many of the jurisdictions listed there. With labor, a major cost input, this is also extremely competitive. We can see on the graph that this is around about a third of what you'd pay in Australia. We really do see these benefits in our cost profile. This graph shows the base case cash flows at $3,500 an ounce. Obviously, we see the CapEx in the first two periods.
We have assumed that production commences in year minus one as part of commissioning, and with commercial production from year one. We can see here the base case cash flows has the payback during the third year, after which we see very robust cash flows, which obviously could fund further expansions as the mineral resource growth occurs. Now this table shows our all-in sustaining cost of $1,499 translated into Aussie dollars at a 0.7 FX rate. It compares very favorably with the all-in sustaining costs of recent reported costs from other Australian producers. Clearly, we can see that our cost profile is well below the average AISC. It also places us in pretty good company with some operations such as those in Evolution, Ramelius, and Capricorn.
Thanks, Lucas. Just stepping back, I guess we've emphasized already just the potential for resource growth. It currently is 3.6 million ounces to pit constraint, and across five, six porphyry deposits in an epithermal system, there's currently an additional 5 million ounces-13 million ounces growth potential in that resource. Certainly, anything over 6 million ounces-8 million ounces would underpin a large-scale, second-stage processing expansion once in production. Again, just summarizing our strategy. We've got two high-quality assets, and we'll talk about El Palmar in a minute. We've got a great team, and that's been demonstrated both in the exploration development at Bramaderos and also in this outstanding scoping study. We're in the right commodities, gold, copper, silver, and there's no sign that they won't continue to get stronger and stronger.
In the background, looking to continue to grow the resources, looking at ways to scale the development. That's reflected in today's capital scoping study. Working through a process with RBC in terms of finding long-term partnership solutions. To summarize for Bramaderos, clearly low-risk development with excellent economics, very predictable low-risk geology we've talked about, and the potential to grow significantly. The stage one is being optimized. The project CapEx, $511 million, is a quarter of what the project NPV is at spot prices. Without doubt, very financeable. Has very low environmental impact. There's no protected forests here. There's no major river diversions. There's no indigenous communities. There's no downstream major population centers affected by the project. A very straightforward multi-decade mining opportunity. Just to highlight our second project at El Palmar, which could be anything. It's a huge potential prize.
There's these two porphyry fingers that come from deep and meet up at surface. Based on limited drilling to date, we've got a 1.2 million ounce resource at surface. We believe that could grow to 2.5 million ounces-3 million ounces as our open pit resource, and then supported by this deeper exploration target of 15 million ounces-45 million ounces. Really critical to emphasize that opportunity at El Palmar can start as an open pit operation in the future, before having to consider the deeper opportunities at El Palmar. Again, the great team and full credit to Ray, Lucas, Bruce, for this quality scoping study. We've got a fantastic country manager in Ecuador, Rodrigo Izurieta, and a very strong board represented by Malcolm Norris as our Chairman, and Neal O'Connor and Stephen Stroud as our Non-Executive Directors.
Looking forward for the rest of 2026, we continue to look at resource growth, and drilling with two rigs operating at the moment at Copete-Porotillo, and Melonal, with ongoing drilling results coming out. Looking to upgrade that Bramaderos resource later this year from 3.6 million ounces, aiming for at least 5 million ounces this year. Scoping study's now delivered and there's potential with further metallurgical test work and other low-level studies to better update that scoping study in the next six to eight months. We've completed the share consolidation, which has been very important to be able to help position a project of this scale and quality for overseas investment. As mentioned, we are working with RBC intensely and advancing the process to be able to attract a partner.
That formal process is delivering great results and has a significant amount of interest, and we're very confident with the potential outcomes of that process. Finally, market cap sitting around AUD 80-AUD 85 million. It's a fraction, less one-thirtieth of the spot valuation of what we've covered today in the scoping study. We're well-funded. We've got AUD 8 million in the bank at beginning of January. When you look at us on a EV to resource basis, in addition to the scoping study against our peers, we're approximately $16 per ounce. We should be $60-$100 per ounce. There's a huge multiple return opportunity when you review the scoping study and see the quality of the scoping study. On that note, any potential questions? Hi, Paul, just checking you're on.
Sorry, can you hear me now, Patrick? We do have a few questions. We'll go through them in the order that they arrived. First of all, one viewer asks in reference to the $500 million CapEx figure, do you expect that would be via a partner from the West or from China?
Yeah, no. Sorry, majority of the CapEx relates to the process, equipment, and design, and that's being prepared by Ausenco, and that's based on Western EPC contractor pricing. Yeah, we've seen examples where some of the Chinese miners have been able to execute for much lower costs, and certainly that's relevant in the current sort of corporate discussions.
Right. We have a question. You seem to be building a twin leach and flotation plant. Are there any opportunities to process neighboring higher grade ore? Is this a strategic acquisition play around the plant, et cetera?
Look, my impression is it's a big bulk processing plant, and that's probably not initially suited. I reference that to the King of the Hills goldmine that we built in Western Australia with my previous company, Red 5, down the hill where Lucas was at St Barbara, they had the Gwalia mine that was able to toll treatment. That was a 1 million ton mill versus a 5 million-6 million ton mill at King of the Hills. There is definitely opportunities, but it hasn't been designed initially in the scoping study for that type of flexibility.
Patrick, you mentioned that there are five or six deposits that comprise Bramaderos. How many pits do you envisage?
Yeah. Sorry. Initially, there's a single pit which covers Brama, Alba, and Melonal, which is the resource we currently have. Where we're drilling now at Copete-Porotillo is an extension of that porphyry ore bodies as part of that cluster, and we do envisage that'll be a single large super pit. Further away is Limon, which is where the epithermal and the deeper porphyry system is. That would be a separate mining center. Certainly, there's other identified porphyry systems that are not in that exploration target that sit in the broader concession.
Another viewer asked, Patrick, can you provide more detail on the partnership and corporate options?
Yeah. I did allude to the process. We're working with RBC, and they're doing a fantastic job. Certainly more interest than we anticipated and what RBC anticipated. The focus is certainly on understanding the geology and issuing now the scoping study as a sort of critical milestone in that formal process. Certainly, what is attracting parties is the location of Bramaderos being in this Southern Ecuador, in the base of this valley that's remote, with a very supportive community, and a sort of dream mining scenario with this large open pit opportunity. Yeah, we're working through the formal process, answering a thousand questions and have been on the road having a number of meetings. Again, I'm very confident that RBC is going to deliver a fantastic outcome.
In a similar vein, have any of the parties in the data room expressed interest in a straight takeover bid?
Yeah. I don't want to comment on that. Certainly, all options are on the table, whether it's a takeover, whether it's a strategic interest at the corporate level, whether it's an asset joint venture or asset acquisition. We are dealing with lots of groups with, I guess, their own preferred transactions and looking to shortlist them into what's the most sort of compelling offers for our shareholders.
Now you mentioned, Patrick, that there would be a resource update later this year, I think was your phrase. This viewer asks, what would be the sort of order of magnitude we could expect and where would the resource growth come from?
Yeah, no. Specifically at Melonal, Copete, and Porotillo is where the two rigs are operating at the moment, and we've deliberately designed a drilling program that can deliver a significant resource upgrade. We obviously know with the porphyry geology that extends down south of where we've currently got the resource, and there's a lot of predictability in the resource definition. It's those three focus areas that will deliver the resource growth this year.
Would Limon be a standalone development? Is that factored into the scoping study numbers?
No. Sorry. No, it's not. I'll let Ray have a comment on Limon.
Yeah. Thanks, Patrick. At this stage, Limon isn't included in the scoping study. We've looked at ways to integrate Limon into the flow sheet when that comes through. Limon, we'll still be working up for a mineral resource, but we're not there yet.
The obvious follow-up question then would be, would Limon be part of a PFS?
Yeah. I guess Ray's highlighted the steps to that would be there needs to be more drilling to get Limon into a mineral resource. Then metallurgical test work, and that would then enable for it to be included in a PFS. As we've seen, obviously this is a large tonnage, relatively lower grade porphyry system and porphyry development, but incredibly profitable. Sort of in that upper echelon of quality gold names in the ASX. The sort of 1.4x strip ratio and the local cost advantages in Ecuador mean that we've got a multi-billion dollar valuation over the three porphyry deposits we have already, and that Limon and the broader Limon epithermal and the broader porphyry exploration targets all represent significant upside from where we are today.
Changing tack a little bit, Patrick, what's the environment like for mining in Ecuador, and is the government supportive?
Yeah. We've got a president who's very much pro-mining, pro-business, comes from a very wealthy business family in Ecuador. There are two world-class projects, Fruta del Norte and Mirador, run by Lundin Gold and Tongling, that are in production, and Lundin Gold's a $25 billion single asset company. There's a whole pipeline of large projects now that are benefiting from the push to advance mining in Ecuador. Some have faced opposition where they're in environmentally or community sensitive areas. It just highlights the huge advantage and why we've got so much interest in Bramaderos. Its location in Southern Ecuador, no native forests or major environmental impacts, no river diversions, supportive community, no indigenous community aspects that we need to manage, like some other projects do. Confident that Bramaderos could be in production earlier than some of these other larger projects in Ecuador.
Right. Patrick, I think that concludes our questions. That finishes the webinar, unless there's anything else you'd like to add.
No, that's great. Thanks, Paul, and thanks everyone for attending today.
Right. Thank you to everyone for joining us, and a recording of this presentation will be available later this morning.