Hello and welcome to this investment update for Tribeca Global Natural Resources , TGF. My name is Ben Cleary, Portfolio Manager. I'm joined by my partner, Todd Warren. We're very pleased to be presenting this investment update to you today. There are four sections we'll be covering off, providing a corporate update. Today, we're announcing a fully franked dividend of AUD 0.05 a share. That will include an on-market buyback of up to 10% of the shares on issue. Given the current discount to NTA, we see up to AUD 50 million of accretion that we can unlock to shareholders, and closing the discount remains very much a goal of our board and management. Secondly, we'll be providing a performance update. Pleasingly, calendar year to date, the company has returned circa 20%. Last financial year, we were material outperformers across almost all major indices and indexes.
The market certainly looks attractive in our view, leading into this end of this calendar year, 2025 and into 2026. Clearly, with President Trump, what's happening in the U.S. around critical minerals has really put a match under the commodity equities market in recent months, and we think that this is set to continue. Secondly, China policy remains incredibly loose and supportive for commodity demand, and generally, fundamentals are strong, with supply issues only increasing over a number of the major commodities that we're looking at. We still see the potential for big amounts of flow rotating out of other sectors into the resources sector. We've also contained in this presentation five of our top portfolio ideas at this stage. In terms of the dividend that has been declared today, we've included the key relevant dates here. Importantly, there's a DRP associated with this.
All of the board and key management of the company will be participating in the DRP. Importantly, the DRP mechanism is not going to issue new shares. It will be buying on market all shares that are taken up in the DRP. Second of all, the buyback will commence as soon as the DRP buying has been completed. You can see on the right-hand side, this will be our second on-market buyback that we've announced. We announced one when the discount was pretty similar to current levels, during COVID. You can see that the discount closed from as wide as AUD 0.50 to 15%, and subsequently, the following year traded at a premium. We’re very confident that being aggressive with this buyback, given the timing, the momentum that we've got in terms of our returns and the outlook, we should be able to see material closing of the discount.
At current levels, there's 50% upside to current share price to our NTA. You can also see on the chart on the right-hand side, our NTA has really been in this box of AUD 1.80- AUD 2.10 for the last couple of years. We've now broken above those levels. At the same time, our discount has just been widening, given that the returns have largely been sideways. Now that we're breaking out of that sideways NTA for the last couple of years, we really think that this is a great time for the buyback. Again, we do see material upside for shareholders if we can close that NTA and continue the recent run of good performance.
As I alluded to in the outset, FY 25, it was small absolute returns, but certainly versus all sort of major resources indexes, there was significant outperformance in what was a pretty tough year for the sector. Most of that outperformance came from our positions across the precious metals space, and we'll talk more to that during this presentation. Importantly, calendar year to date, 20% odd returns, and we really do see a strong end to this year. I'll now hand it over to Todd to talk through the current portfolio and weightings.
Thanks, Ben. As Ben mentioned, precious metals has been a key contributor to our performance over the last 12 months. I guess the point to make here is that we do continue to run a very diversified portfolio that continues to be exposed to some key structural things that we think are not just the here and now, but are exciting in the medium to long term. The portfolio remains heavily exposed to both precious as well as battery and base metals, and some key energy exposures such as the nuclear thematic. On the right-hand side, you can see the comparator with both the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index in the top right and the bottom right, the EBITDA breakup that BHP has. Certainly, given BHP Group is seen as a bellwether for the resources space and clearly a very attractive option for many investors.
To break down that pie chart in more detail, you can see on the right-hand side in the box there the key names that we are exposed to. It is diverse. Agnico Eagle is a Canadian-listed world leader in the precious metals space. They've been a very strong performer through this recent run in gold price. In the smaller end of the spectrum are names like Alpha HPA or Develop here in Australia. Capstone Copper, who's a Canadian-listed copper producer, has actually recently listed here in Australia as well, but very attractive in our view given the growth profile they have and the relatively attractive valuation multiples. If you can go to the next slide, you'll see a comparison we make with BHP .
I touched on the fact that the portfolio we have in TGF is a very diversified portfolio with certainly very strong exposure to the key growth thematics of electrification and the energy transition. Now, BHP Group is trying to move increasingly aggressively towards a similar exposure. As you saw in their previous pie chart, they remain roughly 2/3 exposed in terms of their EBITDA earnings to iron ore. That's been a good rubber for them in the past, but there are some fairly structural challenges that that business faces going forward. They have been a premium performer. They have listened to the market. They've declared ongoing dividends, and are trying to grow their critical minerals exposure. The problem is that that's quite long-dated. In the immediate term, in the next few years, they will actually see their production overall decline.
What's also interesting is that their growth profile, their big capital exposure, the big capital projects indeed, particularly, for example, in their South American portfolio and their North American portfolio, are seeing increasing capital intensity. In other words, it's costing them more to drive their growth. Now, with regards to how they deal with that, some of it's out of their hands, frankly. The permitting challenges they face both here in Australia as well as in the Americas are just slowing down their pursuit of growth. It's a challenge they face everywhere. It's a challenge that's very difficult to navigate because it's in the hands of governments and local communities. Their near-term growth is actually a little slower than peers. Whilst they have a premium multiple today, we do feel there is some risk that that declines, at least relative to their peers. The issue of sustaining capital is real.
We have seen across the industry, to be fair, that the cost of building new capacity continues to rise. The chart on the right here is actually taken directly from BHP 's growth pipeline presentation that they provided at the time of their site visit to Escondida back in November of last year. You can see that their longer-term growth, those red columns, continues to climb. It creates a significant challenge because actually what it means is it's going to cost them more to bring more copper pounds or tons into the market. The flip side to that, of course, is that it's cheaper to buy than build. That is a real issue for the industry as a whole, for the bigger guys, I should say. What it also does is it leads them more to those companies that we own in the TGF portfolio.
For example, like Develop Global, like Capstone . The portfolio that TGF has is heavily diversified, more diversified than a BHP . The opportunity here for TGF is that BHP is forced to do more M&A because it's more capital, it's more capital appreciative for them to buy than build, but it leads them towards the names that we already own. To move forward, to point to that ECM or special situations opportunity that exists within TGF, we thought we'd just highlight a few key examples of where we have generated significant alpha year to date in 2025. There are three names here: Discovery Silver, listed in Canada under the ticker DSV; Orocobre, which is listed both in Canada and Australia under the ticker ORE; and what was called Spartan Resources, being recently taken over by Ramelius and traded under the ticker SPR.
These are all names that Tribeca, through its connections in the resources market, through its history of significant investment in the resources market, was able to invest early, identified through our technical expertise, the upside cases in each of these. You can see the chart on the right-hand side, the returns that were generated for the TGF portfolio. The largest one there is SPR, Spartan. That was one that we've actually held since, we had held since 2023 when they recapitalized at AUD 0.10 a share. Even just this year, you saw continual upside up until the time of the takeover by Ramelius . Overall, that generated more than 400% returns to the portfolio. More recently, the Discovery Silver was an investment we made in January of this year. Since January, that investment has generated around about 300% return for the portfolio.
The more recent one is Orocobre, a more recent addition to the portfolio, an exciting gold developer or producer and developer with assets in Africa. We see them generating increasing returns just given their peer multiples if nothing else. They're growing production, they are a low-cost producer, and they are trading at a discount to their peers, both in Canada and here in Australia. The important point here is that we have access to these deals. They're not easy to access if you don't have the right relationships. Because of our technical expertise, we've been able to identify them at an early stage. To finally wrap up with regards to the market structure, Ben touched on some high points here. The real exciting, I guess, new area of market drivers is this global trade tensions and the increasing onshoring that we're seeing from various players around the world.
Obviously, this has been driven by the rather aggressive moves from the Trump administration in the U.S. The important point is that they have identified and are finally moving on the nature of Chinese involvement in the supply of many of these critical minerals. The U.S. has identified that they need to get their hands on more and more of these critical minerals, and they cannot rely on third parties that are not necessarily have their best interests at heart. Now, the point is here, of course, it's not just the U.S. The rest of the world is also coming to the very same conclusion. What that means is that you will see higher and higher prices having to be paid in order to access the supply of these critical minerals. Second point there, China's policy pivot.
We've talked about it before, but the important point is that we're starting to see terms like anti-involution, the point being there that it is curbing deflation in the domestic Chinese economy. They are also, at the same time, looking to invest massive amounts of capital in terms of fiscal expansion on major infrastructure projects. You may have seen the headlines around a mega hydro dam project in Tibet, which is, to put it in perspective, three times the previous largest project in China called the Three Gorges Dam, which puts into insignificance other hydro facilities around the world and will be a huge driver, we believe, in terms of new infrastructure projects and, importantly, the demand for steel, for copper, for cement.
With regards to the fundamentals remaining attractive, the point is here that there's a lot of talk about demand, but the reality is that supply just is not keeping up. These structural deficits continue to underpin what we think is a positive outlook going forward. The spend in key areas like China have touched on infrastructure. What I haven't talked about is the power grid. The point is here that whilst, for example, copper demand in China used to be heavily driven by the property sector, it's now 40%- 50% driven by their infrastructure spend on power. They see this as being the key constraints on their economic growth. Importantly, though, we should note that this is not just a China story. The rest of the world needs desperately to invest in its power provision, distribution, and transmission, and that is all heavily commodity supply intensive.
Finally, coming back to the point around flow, we continue to see an under-allocation towards resources, both in terms of mining and energy. We continue to be at very low levels. We're starting to see that shift occur as we refer to it as ESG 4.0. That shift away from financial assets to real assets. We see the increasing M&A activity as being one of the drivers that will help close that valuation differential. With that, I'll wrap up. There is a lot of material in this slide deck. It is all available online. I encourage you to take a look through it. It does talk through in more detail. Ben touched on some of our key ideas. Those ideas are global in nature in terms of there's national champions like Albemarle, which is the U.S.
lithium champion, but also more esoteric ideas that you will struggle to find elsewhere. Whether that's our Argyle Diamonds exposure, we talked through in more detail there about the investment case, or it might be private investments in companies like 6K Additive, which is a pre-IPO opportunity we've recently invested in. It's trading at a significant discount to listed peers, and we look forward to that IPOing later this year. With that, I'll wrap up. Please reach out. We encourage you to do so. We would love to have a conversation about our portfolio in more depth. We are very excited about the future, as hopefully you can tell. We look forward to closing that discount to NTA with our buyback and dividend and the upside case for resources playing out over many years to come. Thank you.