Vicinity Centres (ASX:VCX)
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Apr 28, 2026, 4:10 PM AEST
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Earnings Call: H2 2024

Aug 19, 2024

Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Vicinity Centres FY 2024 annual results briefing. All participants are in listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, you will need to press the star key followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Peter Huddle, CEO and Managing Director. Please go ahead.

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Vicinity Centres Results call for the twelve months ended thirtieth of June, 2024 . Joining me on today's call is Adrian Chai, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I'd like to acknowledge the traditional custodians on the lands on which we meet today and pay my respects to their elders, past and present. I extend that respect to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples on the call today. I will start today's presentation on slide five. FY 2024 was a successful year at Vicinity, showcased by the achievements of our operating and financial objectives and the momentum of strategic execution. We are making meaningful investments in the quality and future resilience of our retail asset portfolio by investing in major developments at our existing premium centers and concurrently driving a portfolio shift by strategic acquisitions and divestments at attractive pricing.

In this context, we're pleased to announce that last night we simultaneously exchanged contracts and settled on the acquisition of a 50% interest in Lakeside Joondalup in Western Australia. I'll talk to the transaction in more detail shortly, but suffice to say, as a well-located, fortress-style asset with significant growth potential, Lakeside Joondalup has been on our target list for some time. From a financial results perspective, we delivered an FFO per security of AUD 0.146, which was above our guidance range, thanks to our strong leasing outcomes and other positive portfolio metrics. As a result, the board declared a final distribution of AUD 0.059 per security, bringing the full year to AUD 0.1175, representing a payout ratio of 95.2% of AFFO.

As we expected, elevated living costs weighed on consumption in the second half of FY 2024, but retailer confidence to lock in leasing deals remained robust, and we maintained our disciplined approach to negotiating new leases, where the structure, tenure, and value of rents written strengthens our current and future income growth profile. Adrian will talk to the financials in more detail shortly, but at a high level, Vicinity delivered a net profit after tax of AUD 547 million for the twelve months. While our headline FFO was slightly below the prior year at AUD 665 million, adjusting for one-offs and higher rent loss from developments, FFO was up 3.2%. Comparable NPI was up strongly at 4.1%. Leasing spreads for the year were positive, but as expected, moderated in the second half.

At 99.3%, occupancy is at its highest level since before the pandemic, and while cost of living pressures weighed on our retail sales growth in the second half, MAT sales growth for the twelve months remained positive at 1.9%. In FY 2023, we set a new pace at which our organization now operates, and the momentum of execution in FY 2024 actually accelerated. With a strong balance sheet and disciplined approach to capital management, our competitive advantage continues to be our ability and willingness to invest in the quality and vibrancy of our retail assets, both large and small. We enhanced our investment portfolio, having settled on the acquisition of the remaining 49% interest in Chatswood Chase, giving us full control to transform this asset into Sydney's fashion capital.

We acquired Lakeside Joondalup and secured the property and retail development management rights, enabling us to further unlock the asset's future growth potential. We further uplifted the quality of our portfolio, having divested seven non-strategic assets, four of which were part of our deliberate strategy to rightsize and strengthen our portfolio in Western Australia. Reinforcing the asset as a destination for retailer headquarters, Chadstone welcomes the corporate offices of top-tier retailers, Kmart and Adairs, to its new office tower, named One Middle Road. Retailer interest in Chatswood Chase continues to be strong, with approximately 80% of income secured, and also, during the period, Vicinity received authority approval for major mixed-use developments at Box Hill and Victoria Gardens in Victoria, and we will, of course, maintain full optionality over how and when we create value from these developments.

Our steadfast focus on strong financial stewardship is a discipline that we know our shareholders value. Preserving our balance sheet and sector-leading credit ratings are, and will remain, guiding principles for us when deploying capital. In April, we took advantage of market dynamics and issued a 10-year, AUD 500 million bond, which further diversified our funding mix and lengthened our weighted average maturity. And lastly, enabling good business is focused on ensuring Vicinity continues to be a responsible, safe, and sustainable business, while being a great place to work. In this context, we are delighted to present the outcome of our enterprise-wide collaboration that has successfully redefined our shared purpose, vision, and values.

And when brought to life in unison with our strategy, we are confident we will deliver on our strategic and financial ambitions, and at the same time, create a workplace where high performance, diversity, inclusion, and well-being are universal. As I said earlier, Vicinity is in the advantageous position to be actively curating a stronger, more resilient asset portfolio. We know that premium, fortress-style assets located in great trade areas, that are well managed by retail property experts, have the potential to deliver superior income growth and value accretion over time. To that end, in the past twelve months, we've been able to secure two iconic assets.

While unique in their own right, both Chatswood Chase and Lakeside Joondalup are fortress-style major regional assets located in catchments that are: for Chatswood Chase, extraordinarily affluent, and for Lakeside Joondalup, growing and emerging as a major activity center outside of the Perth CBD. Both assets are proximate to bus and rail transport, and importantly, both assets are primed for revitalization and significant growth. Our track record of maintaining a strong balance sheet with the flexibility to invest in growth, has enabled Vicinity to acquire well, not just this year, but also throughout the pandemic. In November 2021 , we acquired a 50% interest in Harbour Town Premium Outlets on the Gold Coast, and in April 2020 , we acquired a 50% interest and subsequently rebranded DFO University Hill in Victoria.

Both these assets have since benefited from outstanding leasing execution, where we leveraged our scalable network of growth-aspiring retail partners and significantly elevated the retail offer. And the sales and leasing spread results, shown on this slide, speak for themselves. And this active portfolio investment strategy is having a meaningful impact on our portfolio composition. Combining the acquisition of Lakeside Joondalup, our divestments, and upon stabilization of developments at Chadstone and Chatswood Chase, our weighting to premium assets will increase from around 50% of our portfolio to just under two-thirds. Our strong balance sheet, and importantly, our portfolio diversification, is enabling us to be highly selective acquirers of assets that align with our investment strategy, and sellers of assets where market liquidity and pricing is strong.

Additionally, with limited investment in new retail supply at a sector level, and with a growing population, premium retail assets are today, and will remain resilient through cycles and have tremendous growth potential. These assets have continued to remain in high demand by retailers, showcased by our blended leasing spreads across Chadstone and our outlets, averaging greater than 8% per annum since the peak of the pandemic. Earlier in FY 2024, we set a target of AUD 400 million of asset sales, and to date, we have delivered more than AUD 550 million at a blended 9% premium to book value. While providing an important funding mechanism for our acquisitions and flagship developments, asset sales are also a key part of our overall portfolio repositioning. Notably, in the second half of FY 2024, much of our focus was on the Western Australian portfolio.

In fact, the acquisition of Lakeside Joondalup, the forthcoming redevelopment of Galleria, and divestment of four non-strategic assets in Western Australia, was a deliberate strategy to recycle and redeploy capital to rightsize and strengthen our asset base in that region with the right assets for long-term growth. Looking ahead, preserving our balance sheet and sector-leading credit ratings remains our absolute priority, and in this context, we are targeting a further AUD 250 million of additional asset sales in FY 2025, whilst remaining opportunistic and selective in terms of acquisitions that align with our investment strategy. As expected, significantly elevated household living costs impacted retail sales growth rates in the second half of FY 2024. Vicinity's portfolio reported a total MAT of AUD 18.4 billion, with comparable sales growth of 1.9% relative to FY 2023.

Strong retail sales growth across our CBD portfolio, up 5.5% in the second half, was supported by the steady return of international tourism, international students, and office workers. Notably, occupancy of our CBD portfolio, at 99.6%, now exceeds pre-COVID levels, reflecting retailer confidence in the future of CBDs, as well as the number of outstanding flagship stores and new concepts being introduced. Across the retail categories, fresh food, dining, and supermarket sales growth, as well as sporting goods, cosmetics, and retail services remained positive. While softer apparel and footwear and homeware sales reflected the cycling of exceptional growth rates in recent years and cost of living pressures. There was an observable shift to value-conscious shopping, highlighted by our outlet center's growth rate of 5.2% in the second half of FY 2024.

Not surprisingly, in today's environment, luxury sales growth has been relatively volatile. Importantly, however, relative to 2019, same-store retail luxury sales per square meter have increased by 45%, and together with our luxury retail partners, we have plans to grow their network of stores across a number of our premium assets. Despite the relatively flat retail sales environment, retailer confidence to look through the cycle and locking long-term leasing deals remain robust in high-quality premium portfolios. The leasing team negotiated over 2,000 deals during the year, and of note, the retention rate remained elevated at 74%. 234 vacant stores, representing 33,000 square meters of GLA, were leased in the period, which supported an increase in portfolio occupancy, up 50 basis points to 99.3% at 30 June 2024.

Fixed annual rent increases, positive leasing spreads, and higher occupancy delivered in FY 2024 all contributed to our 4.1% comparable NPI growth. What's more, we enter FY 2025 with a relatively healthy occupancy cost ratio of 13.7%. Demonstrating retailer confidence more broadly, we locked in more long-term leases this year and further reduced our leases on holdover by 70, to now sit at just over 300 stores, of which one-third are being strategically held for development. As a result, the weighted average lease duration of all leases across our portfolio increased by almost 10% over the past twelve months to 3.6 years at June 2024. I'll now hand over the call to Adrian to discuss the financials.

Adrian Chye
CFO, Vicinity Centres

Thanks, Peter, and good morning. I'll begin on slide 13. Statutory net profit for the year was AUD 547 million. This was mainly comprised of AUD 665 million of funds from operations, or FFO, partly offset by modest full-year net property valuation loss and other statutory items. As Peter mentioned, we delivered FFO of AUD 0.146 per security, above our guidance range of AUD 0.141-AUD 0.145, with the outperformance largely driven by strong leasing outcomes and other positive portfolio metrics. While FFO was 2.9% lower than the prior period, when we exclude one-offs and adjust for higher loss of rent in FY 2024 from our major Chadstone and Chatswood Chase developments, FFO was up by 3.2%.

The one-offs comprised reversals of prior year waivers and provisions and the net impact of transactions, which collectively had a net adverse AUD 24 million impact on FFO growth compared to the prior period. Given the ramp-up of Chadstone and commencement of Chatswood Chase, loss of rent increased around AUD 16 million-AUD 30 million in FY 2024. Underpinning the adjusted 3.2% growth in FFO was comparable NPI growth of 4.1% throughout FY 2024, which was in turn driven by positive underlying rental growth, positive leasing spreads, and of course, as Peter mentioned, increased portfolio occupancy. Other key movements on the income statement include net corporate overheads, which were down 2.9% or AUD 2.8 million, having benefited from lower corporate insurance costs and higher capitalization of development costs.

As expected, net interest expense increased 5.8%, principally due to higher interest rates and the impact of completed developments. This was partly offset by asset sales during the year. Meanwhile, maintenance CapEx and leasing incentives were broadly in line with the prior year. Turning now to valuations. We are pleased to report net property valuation growth of AUD 8 million in the second half of FY 2024, relative to a net valuation decline in the first half. As expected, capitalization rates are showing signs of stabilization, and owing to positive leasing and portfolio metrics, income growth contributed 2.3% to portfolio valuations in the second half. Outlet portfolio valuations benefited from income growth of 4.1%, once again, highlighting the attractiveness and resilience of this asset class.

Similarly, having been the most impacted asset class in the pandemic, CBD valuations increased in the second half, owing to our concerted efforts on remixing and leasing execution, and hence, increased occupancy across this portfolio. Elevated operating expenses have had an impact, and in Vicinity's case, mostly reflect increased statutory expenses, such as higher land tax, award wage increases across security and cleaning, as well as higher property insurances. Our portfolio weighted average cap rate is 5.65%, one basis point higher than December 2023. Of particular note, Chadstone's cap rate expanded 12.5 basis points, and consistent with previous developments, Chatswood Chase's valuation now takes into account the major redevelopment with an on-completion cap rate of 5%.

The valuation uplift, driven by the cap rate tightening, is largely offset by development profit and risk allowances, which are expected to unwind as the project progresses. With the prospect of interest rate cuts in the future and resilient income growth continuing, Vicinity's portfolio continues to be well-positioned for future growth. Turning now to capital management. Financial stewardship continues to be governed by the preservation of our strong balance sheet and sector-leading credit ratings, together with our disciplined approach to capital allocation and driving efficiencies. We continue to focus on preserving our credit ratings of A stable and A2 stable from S&P and Moody's, respectively. At 27.2%, our gearing remains at the lower end of our 25%-35% target range.

Adjusting for the acquisition of Lakeside Joondalup and assets sold but not yet settled, being Mornington Central and Karratha, pro forma gearing increases marginally to 28.3%. We continue to actively manage debt expiries, having issued AUD 500 million of 10-year Australian dollar-denominated medium-term notes in April, and consequently, our weighted average maturity increased to above 4 years. With the benefit of being highly hedged over the year, averaging 85%, our weighted average cost of debt increased marginally to 4.9%. As we look ahead, our average hedging ratio for FY 2025 is forecast to remain around 80%. From a liquidity perspective, we have AUD 1.4 billion of cash and undrawn debt facilities, representing around 90% of our FY 2025 and FY 2026 expiries. Once again, Vicinity enters FY 2025 in a strong position to invest in its long-term growth priorities.

Thank you. I'll now hand back to Peter.

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

Thank you, Adrian. Turning now to developments. I believe that our willingness, and importantly, our ability to invest in the vibrancy and quality of our asset portfolio continues to be a competitive advantage and sets us apart from our sector peers. Today, the majority of our committed capital spend relates to two major projects, at Chadstone and at Chatswood, two of our premium assets, both with significant growth potential. And during the year, we also completed four smaller redevelopments at Bayside and Emporium Melbourne in Victoria, Castle Plaza in South Australia, and Nepean Village in New South Wales. That being said, we remain acutely aware of the elevated costs of capital and the challenged construction sector nationally. At our half-year results in February this year, we communicated an elongation of our development pipeline and prioritization of higher-value retail developments, and today, there is no change to that approach.

Touching on Chadstone, while the project has not been immune from industry-wide construction sector challenges, we are well progressed on our retail and mixed-use development project. The development incorporates a new 20,000 sq m office tower, One Middle Road, and significantly elevated fresh food and dining offer, named The Market Pavilion. We had previously announced One Middle Road as home for Adairs' corporate office, and today, we are delighted to announce that the headquarters of Kmart will also relocate to One Middle Road. Our agreement with Kmart was the largest office leasing deal in the Australian metro markets in 2024 to date. The deal strongly aligns with our strategy of locating the corporate offices of key Australian retailers at the best shopping center precinct in Australia.

One Middle Road, as a new-to-industry commercial asset, fully integrated into Chadstone's retail core, will commence occupation in 2025 , with pre-leasing commitments now greater than ninety-five%, a significant outcome in this office leasing market today. The Market Pavilion is now ninety-five% leased and will house some of the very best local fresh food retailers and truly artisan concepts and experiences. The opening of this exciting new precinct will occur in March 2025 . In October 2023 , we announced the acquisition of the residual forty-nine% interest in Chatswood Chase in Sydney. The acquisition paved the way for the commencement in March 2024 of the major redevelopment of the center. In our view, our redevelopment plans for Chatswood Chase represent the most exciting and transformational retail development project today and into the foreseeable future....

While the redevelopment is not expected to open until late 2025 , demand for store space from both national and international retailers has been overwhelming, with around 80% of the project's income secured, and the caliber of retail partners this project is attracting is showcased on this slide, including some of the world's best luxury retailers, such as Louis Vuitton, Hermès, and Cartier. In addition to category-leading retailers such as Apple, Mecca, Scanlan and Theodore, Zimmermann, and Lululemon. Chatswood Chase will be a fashion capital for the greater Sydney area, and needless to say, we're extraordinarily excited to bring this project to market. Completing the premium experience this project will deliver is the new fresh food and dining precinct on the center's lower ground level, home to over 65 new fresh food, dining, and daily essential retailers, which opened in March 2024 and is performing well.

At Vicinity, we recognize the importance of sustainability in our business, and more so than ever before, we are approaching our environmental, social, and governance priorities and commitments with a high degree of focus. We continue to make progress on our net zero target, with the emissions intensity of our net zero portfolio down almost 40% compared to FY 2016, and with an additional solar array going live at Grand Plaza, we now generate a total of 43 gigawatt hours of renewable energy across our shopping centers this year. Turning now to FY 2025 earnings guidance. Like FY 2024, FY 2025 is expected to be a year where our earnings growth profile reflects continued strength in our operating and portfolio metrics, together with some temporary impacts from our deliberate strategy to curate a higher quality asset portfolio.

We expect FY 2025 FFO and AFFO per security to be in the range of AUD 0.145-AUD 0.148 and AUD 0.123-AUD 0.126, respectively. On a normalized basis, the FY 2025 FFO per security guidance reflects growth between 2% and 4%. Our guidance assumes the impacted divestments announced today, where contracts have been executed but are yet to settle, as well as our targeted AUD 250 million of additional asset sales in FY 2025. Comparable NPI growth of 3%- 3.5%, supported by strong leasing and portfolio metrics delivered in FY 2024. A total loss of rent of AUD 35 million due to developments. FY 2025 is expected to be the peak period of loss of rent as Chadstone is completed and as Chatswood Chase is substantially complete.

Also assumed in guidance is an increased weighted average cost of debt to 5.1% from 4.9% in FY 2024. And maintenance, capital, and leasing incentives should remain broadly in line with FY 2024 at roughly AUD 100 million. In summary, FY 2024 was a productive and successful year at Vicinity, and I'd like to recognize and thank my leadership team, our board, and the entire team at Vicinity for their hard work, passion, and commitment. Just like FY 2024, FY 2025 will be another big year for us, where we will continue making strategic decisions and investments to drive long-term sustained value for our security holders. Before I open the call to Q&A, let me close by sharing with you how I think about Vicinity, what we are focused on, and why.

At the heart of all of our business decisions and investments is a focus on delivering predictable and growing income for our security holders, while also driving capital growth over time. With our intense focus on negotiating quality, long-term leases with fixed annual growth escalators, we believe Vicinity provides investors with a more resilient and hedged exposure to Australia's retail sector. Of particular note, the medium to long-term fundamentals of the Australian retail property sector are favorable, anchored by record high migration numbers since the pandemic, compounded by Australia's population being forecast to grow by another 15%, from 27 million today to a population of 31 million people by 2033.

From a structural point of view, the combination of Australia's growing population, tight planning rules, and the lack of investment in new retail floor space is expected to reduce retail GLA per capita, which naturally bodes well for capable owners of established, well-capitalized shopping centers that shape meaningful places where communities connect. We have an industry-leading management team and a clear strategy that is focused on driving retail property excellence and value accretive capital management. We have a compelling portfolio of diverse assets that is increasingly premium, and which also includes large land parcels with long-dated authority approvals for major mixed-use developments. These opportunities represent pure option value for Vicinity and its shareholders, regardless of how the value is unlocked.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Vicinity is now an organization where working at pace to execute immediate, medium, and long-term strategic priorities and deliver consistent results year after year is just the baseline. Thank you, and I'll hand over to the operator for Q&A.

Operator

Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. If you wish to cancel your request, please press star two. If you are, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question comes from Lou Pirenc with Jarden.

Lou Pirenc
Analyst, Jarden

Yes, good morning, Peter, Adrian. Two quick questions, if I may. The first one, just what is the yield on the Joondalup acquisition? And I'm asking because on your waterfall on page twenty of the presentation, you talk about one-off items relating to that. So I just wanted to kind of see what's one-off of that.

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

Hi, Lou, it's Peter here. Essentially, the passing yield on the Joondalup transaction on today's cash flows is around 6.5%.

Lou Pirenc
Analyst, Jarden

Right. And then, Adrian, can you just explain that one-off part of the acquisition there?

Adrian Chye
CFO, Vicinity Centres

Yeah, sure, so we expect Joondalup to be about a AUD 5 million benefit into FY 2025. So we've just excluded that in that one-off items. The other, I guess, transaction impact is the asset sales. So we expect the asset sales to have about a AUD 10 million negative impact on that. So a net negative AUD 5 million impact from the asset transactions for FY 2025.

Lou Pirenc
Analyst, Jarden

Cool, thank you. And then, just on your development pipeline, you do give that twenty-six in negative lost rent based on your development pipeline. Can you just talk about kind of what is most likely to be next in terms of you kicking off developments?

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

I'll pick that up, Lou. So obviously, we're finishing Chadstone and Chatswood, which is fundamentally the forecast around AUD 35 million. If you then move into FY 2026, we still have Chatswood to open in the first half of FY 2026, and we anticipate moving into Galleria and towards the later part of FY 2026, a development in Uptown in Brisbane CBD. So you'll start to see the lost rent peak through FY 2025, and then taper off as we move into FY 2026.

Lou Pirenc
Analyst, Jarden

Great. Thank you.

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

Thanks, Lou.

Operator

Your next question comes from David Pobje with Macquarie Group.

David Pobje
Analyst, Macquarie Group

Good morning. Congratulations on the results, and thanks for taking my questions. Just to follow up on Lakeside Joondalup, please, maybe if you could just talk to how we think about the property and retail development management rights in terms of earning additional fee income.

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

David, it's Peter here. I mean, an important part of the transaction for us was, we purchased the non-management equity interest in that from Future Fund, and then we had some negotiations with Lendlease and APPF retail side of their fund. So important was to transfer the management rights to unlock the value. In terms of our forecast, it's circles around an incremental AUD 2 million.

David Pobje
Analyst, Macquarie Group

Thank you. And just the second question from me, when you've flagged 250 mil investments and AUD 470 million of deployment, is that suggesting we should expect gearing to move up throughout the year, and where are you comfortable on this compared to your target range, please?

Adrian Chye
CFO, Vicinity Centres

Hi, David. Yeah, we're expecting gearing to pop up a little bit. On a pro forma basis, if we assume the transactions that we've announced only, we get to 28.3%. With some of the development completions over the next 12 months, plus, obviously with Joondalup as well and the extra 250, we expect gearing to be about the 29%, low 29 percent, and you know, our current target range is 25%-30%, but as we've said in the past, we'd like to be below 30% at this part of the cycle, and we still think over the next 12- 24 months, we'll be at or below 30%.

David Pobje
Analyst, Macquarie Group

Thank you very much. Appreciate that.

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

Thanks, David.

Operator

Your next question comes from Howard Penny with Citi.

Lou Pirenc
Analyst, Jarden

Thank you very much, and well done on the results. Just a question on the developments. You mentioned that FY 2025, 2026, we see the sort of peak lost rent. How do you see the corresponding capitalized interest and capitalized development costs offsetting that incoming rent? And any sense you can give us on that incremental yield above those costs or incremental rent received?

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

Hi, Howard, it's Peter here. We capitalize interest to the balance sheet to the point in time in which the developments open, and then obviously the interest then essentially flows back to the PNL. In terms of the blended cash on cash yield across those two developments, it's circle around the 5.5% mark. At the current weighted average cost of debt that we have and flagged in FY 2021, it's at 5.1%, so there's an incremental benefit. Then obviously, from our point of view, you then look at growth rates on those developments once launched so that gap between income and interest will only increase over time, particularly in the event that we take a view that interest rates are heading towards the peak and should stabilize or reduce over time.

Howard Penny
Analyst, Citi

Absolutely. So just to put that math for myself, so a starting 5.5% cash on yield on asset, 5.1% on debt, but the 5.5% is hopefully growing upwards and the 5.1% decreasing as interest rates come off. So we'll see that expand from 0.4%, going forward. Is that a fair summary?

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

That's fair, Howard. I mean, the only qualifier I'll put on that is, we do report a stabilized yield, so it can take 12-24 months to get to that position. As we, you know, progressively open these developments and new products to the marketplace, they typically do take, we do provide for some additional incentives in the first couple of years to make sure that they're successful.

Howard Penny
Analyst, Citi

Great. Thank you very much. And just on the leasing spreads that have- that's come down and normalized somewhat, what do you see the outlook for that over the next year? I know it's a difficult one to predict, but do you see that dropping further or just or remaining positive throughout the year?

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

Howard, look, they did come down in the second half of this fiscal year. In the half year, you may remember that we did predict that they would be negative leasing spreads. They were negative, but not to the same degree that we anticipated, and for FY 2025, we have, within the guidance, a leasing spread that's broadly in line with the result of this year, around the low 1% positive mark moving into 2025.

Howard Penny
Analyst, Citi

Great. Thank you very much, and well done on a busy year.

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

Thanks, Howard.

Operator

Your next question comes from Ben Brayshaw with Barrenjoey.

Ben Brayshaw
Analyst, Barrenjoey

Oh, hi, Peter. I was wondering if you could just expand a bit on the fundamentals for Lakeside. I mean, we don't, obviously, not a publicly owned asset, but now that you've taken ownership, could you maybe just elaborate on productivity, occupancy cost ratio, opportunities to add value to that asset short term, maybe potentially medium term as well?

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

Yeah. Hi, Ben. Look, from our point of view, the key fundamentals in the asset today, you know, you've got really strong sales around, excluding GSC, around AUD 750 million, with good growth rate in the sales, so above 3%. Occupancy cost ratio on the asset today is about 15% occupancy cost ratio, with sales kicking out lower than our portfolio average, but it's still around 12,250 per sq m. You've got occupancy rate below our occupancy rates at around 97%, so we see some opportunity to grow there. I mean, from our point of view, we've done a very detailed 3-year leasing remix plan as part of this.

So clearly, we bought on a passing yield, but we have a, under our due diligence, a much higher expectation than that moving forward with mixes in the existing asset over the next three years. On top of that, I would say that the outside of the remixing of that asset, it is on a significant land holding connected by rail in a principal activity center of Perth. And we see over the short to medium term, also opportunities from a retail point of view. There's clearly some opportunities in the entertainment precinct, and then more longer term, potentially some non-retail development opportunities, once we get a full handle of the master plan and have our influence with the co-owners over that. So we're, you know, super excited, Ben, about this one.

Ben Brayshaw
Analyst, Barrenjoey

Yeah, I understand. And just on the replacement cost, do you have a view as to where that would likely be for a center like this? The acquisition price is just a bit over AUD 8,500 a meter would be. And just how that would compare with the acquisition price.

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

It's over a hundred thousand square meters, a center that A-plus multi-deck car park on thirty-odd hectares of land. I mean, replacement cost, just the building itself, is well in excess of AUD 600 million, and then you've got the land value on top. So, I haven't got a number. From our point of view, we think we're buying very well, and our estimate is below replacement cost. So I think these type of assets are, I think, had a peak value at a point in time, about AUD 1.15 billion.

Ben Brayshaw
Analyst, Barrenjoey

Could I just clarify, did you say on the call earlier that it is a non-management equity interest, but you had worked something out with Lendlease to take over the management?

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

Yeah. I mean, so we purchased Future Fund's interest in this. And then, in a really collaborative approach with APPF and Lendlease, we've coordinated for the retail management and leasing rights to transfer from Lendlease to Vicinity to manage this asset. Moving forward, there's a transition that occurs effectively. We've settled the asset now, and the transition will occur over the next six weeks, and we'll commence full-time management from the first of October.

Ben Brayshaw
Analyst, Barrenjoey

Okay. Very interesting. Thanks, Peter.

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

Thanks, Ben.

Operator

So our next question comes from Richard Jones with J.P. Morgan.

Richard Jones
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Oh, thanks. Hey, Pete, just following up on Joondalup. Is the AUD 420 million and 6.5% passing yields inclusive of the payment you've made Lendlease and the management rights you'll derive?

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

Pretty much, there was some additional payments to Lendlease, or to essentially the consortium of Lendlease and APPF, but 6.5% would be the number across the total transaction cost.

Richard Jones
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Okay, good. Is it possible to get a breakdown of the total portfolio, and especially sales ex-Chadstone? I assume that, I think you've called out previously, has had some development impact and luxury impact on sales in the last twelve months.

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

That's a good question, Richard. I mean, obviously, Chadstone's so important for our portfolio. There is. We don't exclude it when we're reporting. If you report ex-Chadstone for the sales for the 12 months, it's sitting around 3.3%-3.4% MAT for the period. So Chadstone itself, in terms of MAT for the 12 months, was around 6% negative, primarily resulting from, you know, we're doing a very large-scale development in terms of the office tower, the fresh food area, redoing a multi-deck car park, and there's also been a significant amount of remixing that's occurred within Chadstone in the last 12 months. So preparing Chadstone for its next phase of growth, which will commence from March of 2025.

Richard Jones
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Okay. And do you have the spec numbers as well?

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

The spec numbers for Chadstone, the spec number was negative, was about negative 4% for Chadstone for the twelve months. So if you adjust for the portfolio for that, the portfolio then becomes about 2.7% positive on spec if you adjust for Chadstone on an MAT basis.

Richard Jones
Analyst, J.P. Morgan

Right. Thanks, Pete.

Operator

Our next question comes from James Druce with CLSA.

James Druce
Analyst, CLSA

Good morning, Peter. Good morning, Adrian. Just to clarify on Richard's question, the like for like number on slide nine, you're saying that total portfolio includes Chadstone. Is that-

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

That's correct.

James Druce
Analyst, CLSA

Is that what you're saying?

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

That's correct, James.

James Druce
Analyst, CLSA

Okay. Okay, that's clear. All right, just on another question on Joondalup. I'm sorry, but the passing rents relative to market rents, are you sort of at market? I know you guys have a more bullish view on where rents will go to, but a valuer's assumption of market rents, where are they versus passing?

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

As of today, the valuer's assumptions are pretty close to passing rents. We have a different view, but that's where the valuer's view. We would and so obviously this transaction was third-party valued as part of our due diligence and acquisition approvals, so broadly in line with passing rent today.

James Druce
Analyst, CLSA

Okay. So it, it's a pretty big transaction, and if you look at what it was trying to be sold at in 2018 , it was closer to AUD 600 million, so that's a 30% discount. What impact does this have on valuers' assumptions across the portfolio, do you think?

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

Look, James, it's obviously a key transaction, and I think there's probably a couple of things. I mean, clearly, there's two parts to the transaction. There's the transaction, which is the non-management interest that we purchased, and then there's a separate transaction that deals with the management interest. I think from a valuer's point of view, you've got to look at it at the non-management interest transaction of that, probably not too dissimilar to what Scentre Group have done more recently with a couple of their transactions. At 6.5%, that's obviously a key indicator for that type of asset across the market.

All I can suggest from our point of view, we've looked at similar assets in our valuation and taken into consideration this transaction and pretty comfortable with it in terms of where our assets sit. Clearly, we've been a very active seller of assets in the marketplace over the last 12 months. And again, when we look at those asset transactions, so typically the neighborhood and subregional assets, we're also pretty comfortable with where that sits in our book, and I suppose the rest of the industry needs to, you know, do their own assessments in terms of their own independent third-party valuations.

James Druce
Analyst, CLSA

Okay. Do you mind giving me a feel for the discount rate then for Joondalup?

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

I think, so on this, I think it's about seven seventy-five.

James Druce
Analyst, CLSA

7.75. Okay. And is there any read-through for occupancy costs? I mean, leasing spreads, you know, you're expecting to be positive for 25. Are you being more conservative, or how much more do you think you're sort of reaching a bit of a threshold for some of the tenants in terms of pushing things higher?

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

Look, James, from our point of view, we would anticipate that sales will turn positive on a comp basis leading into FY 2025. A number of reasons as to that. And it's also coming off a lower base, obviously, in FY 2024, so we think comp sales will turn positive. And from a leasing point of view, we've got a retention rate of 74%. It's higher retention rate in our core portfolio than our premium portfolio. Our premium portfolio, we've done some planned replacements in that portfolio to drive productivity.

So we do think that at 13.7% occupancy cost ratio, there's still, you know, good room for us to be in a position to grow rents, and particularly, more confident, obviously, if the comparable sales growth in FY 2025 results in what we anticipate it will, which is starting to return to growth in this quarter, and then obviously more progressively throughout this fiscal year.

Ben Brayshaw
Analyst, Barrenjoey

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Once again, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. Your next question comes from Tom Beder with UBS.

Tom Beder
Analyst, UBS

Morning, Peter and Adrian. Just a quick one on that management rights piece, just to be crystal clear, the AUD 420 million excludes the management rights at Joondalup. Is that correct?

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

Yeah, we paid a... Tom, we haven't released the number, but it's not a huge number. But we paid a little bit of money for the management rights transfer as well. So the four twenty-

Tom Beder
Analyst, UBS

Okay.

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

is purely for Future Fund's interests in the Joondalup transaction. That's the equity component that we purchased.

Tom Beder
Analyst, UBS

Yeah, okay, that's clear. And then just on Chatswood Chase, I'd just be interested in understanding if you've used up any of your contingency around budget, or time, any time delays you're seeing on that project?

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

Tom, yeah, we've used up a little bit of contingency. All of our development projects, particularly in this current environment, have an enhanced level of contingency that's going into projects. Like all typical development projects, you don't foresee everything, so we have used up some contingency on Chatswood associated with some latent conditions and so forth. We're working hand-in-hand with Multiplex, who are an excellent contractor, to be honest, on Chatswood. It's a live environment, so we're operating within an existing shopping center, so there's always surprises. At this stage, there's nothing that is abnormal.

Tom Beder
Analyst, UBS

How about just the program or the timing on that project?

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

Program, a little bit behind, but it's not material where we need to be. We're still about a third of the way through the program, just in the process of completing demolition and starting to rebuild the center at this point in time, and starting to do some phased handovers to some of the major retailers that are involved in the project, or particularly David Jones, that's involved in that project.

Tom Beder
Analyst, UBS

Great, thanks very much.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Huddle for closing remarks.

Peter Huddle
CEO and Managing Director, Vicinity Centres

Thank you. Firstly, I'd just like to thank everyone who called in to today for their interest in our company. Look forward to catching up with you in more detail shortly. And again, thanking our management team, our board, for the last twelve months, and look forward to catching up soon.

Operator

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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