Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm Constantinos, your cordial operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Eurobank Holdings conference call to present and discuss the full year 2022 financial results. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to the Fokion Karavias, CEO. Mr. Karavias, you now have the floor.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon and welcome to our call. Together with me is our CFO, Harris Kokologiannis, and the investor relations team. Before we start, I would like to say that we all at Eurobank are devastated by the recent railway tragic event, and express our deep grief and condolences to the families of those lost. I will start the call with a quick review of the 2022 performance, and then focus on our business plan and the financial targets for the years 2023, 2025. Harris will give you more details on the business drivers for the three-year period. Finally, we will answer your questions. In 2022, Eurobank outperformed all targets set for the year, as can be seen on pages six and seven.
Core operating profit increased by 84% to EUR 885 million, and adjusted EPS, that is excluding one-off items, to EUR 0.18. Our adjusted return on tangible book doValue reached 11.4%, while tangible book doValue per share increased by 20% to EUR 1.70. Asset quality improved further with NPA ratio declining to 5.2%. Our regulatory capital ratios boosted to 15.2%, fully loaded CET1, and 19% total cap, or an annual increase by 250 basis points and 290 basis points respectively. These results were delivered amid a strong economic background, despite the negative impact of increased geopolitical volatility, disruptions in supply chains and persistent inflationary pressures. GDP was up by almost 6% in both Greece and Cyprus, and by 2.7% in the area.
Growth in all our core markets outperformed the EU average. Economic expansion, among other factors, was driven by investments underpinned by the RRF and record FPI. This has also contributed to the strong expansion of our loan book by EUR 3.3 billion in 2022. As it can be seen in slide eight, where we show E sustainable finance initiatives in 2022, green financing share in this loan expansion is material and keeps increasing. Let me now present the highlights of our 2023-2025 business plan. The macroeconomic assumptions of which are summarized on page 12. The economic growth outlook remains relatively strong for Greece, for gain in Cyprus, with average annual growth rate between 2% and 3% for the next three years.
In particular, it appears that economic growth increase may be well above 2% in 2023, as pointed out by the most recent data from tourism early bookings, lower energy prices and the investment pipeline. Additionally, rates are already moving higher than our initial assumptions. High interest rates allow for some headroom in terms of net interest income, but on the other hand, could affect adversely loan demand and asset quality. The financial goals for the 2023-2025 business plan are summarized on page 13. Over the three-year period, we expect EPS to grow at an average rate of around 12% per annum, front-loaded in 2023. We upgrade our target of return on tangible book doValue from 10% to the area of 12%-13% on a sustainable and recurring basis over the same period.
As such, tangible book doValue per share should exceed EUR 2.30 in 2025. Our strong stability translates to organic capital generation of more than 200 basis points per annum. This will be used to finance asset growth, with loans expanding at a 7% compound annual growth rate, and should allow us to explore further potential M&A opportunities. Organic capital generation should facilitate reward shareholders through dividends distribution and share buybacks. Shareholders reward is now becoming key in our strategy. Specifically for 2023, the amount earmarked for dividend distribution will be used in an optimal way to bid for the 1.4% HFSF stake through a share buyback scheme. The initiative has been discussed with the supervisor when current draft to proceed with an official submission.
For next year onwards, we envision a payout ratio of at least 25% in the form of cash dividends and share buyback. The above financial objectives rely on our well-diversified business model, with more than a third of our core operating profits coming outside Greece. In our three core markets, Greece, Bulgaria, and Cyprus, along with Luxembourg, which is our wealth management center, we actively seek to enhance our presence organically and through potential M&A. In this context, and in line with our strategy, we recently executed a capital reallocation by disinvesting from Serbia at favorable valuation terms and proceeding with the already announced investments in Bulgaria and Cyprus markets which offer higher profitability potential. Overall, we are pleased that we consistently outperform our targets for seven years.
Our strong balance sheet and a decent business model makes us confident about capturing the growth opportunities in our region, delivering sustainable returns, and rewarding our shareholders for years to come. At this point, I would like to ask Harry to present our business plan drivers in more detail.
Thank you, Fokion. I will start with NII and the evolution of volumes on page 15. Loan growth is expected to slightly decelerate from the 10% pace recorded in 2022 to an annual average of 7.5% for the plan's horizon. Specifically, performing loans are anticipated to grow by EUR 2.8 billion in 2023 and by EUR 9 billion in the three-year period, driven by business loans in Greece and Cyprus and by both retail and corporate portfolio in Bulgaria. Business lending growth in Greece will be mainly powered by investments in five pillars: infrastructure, energy and green transition, digitalization of the economy, tourism, and manufacturing.
Still on the same page at the right part, group deposits are expected to increase in 2023 by EUR 2.2 billion, and for the three-year plan by EUR 6 billion, which translates to an annual average growth rate of circa 3.5%. Moving on spreads on page 16. Lending spreads are expected to decline by circa 30 basis points in 2023, mainly affected by new production of corporate loans at lower margins, as well as by the outstanding loans with fixed rates, i.e., consumer, small business, and fixed rate mortgages. Deposit spreads at the right part of the page are affected by the pass-through rate and the deposit mix. More specifically, we expect time deposit pass-through rate to reach 65% in 2023 and further increase to 75% in 2024 and 2025.
Pass-through rate of core deposits is anticipated to move at low levels and not exceed 20% during the plan period. On the deposit mix, we anticipate an increase of time to total deposit ratio from circa 25% currently to 40% for the full year 2023, and then up to 60% in 2025. Finally, on this page, net interest margin, mainly reflecting deposit spread trends, should increase to 235 basis points in 2023, before slightly decreasing to 220 basis points in 2025. Finally, on NII and on page 17, net interest income is expected to increase by 20% or EUR 320 million in 2023 as a result of Eurobank increase and new loan production, which offset higher estimated costs and lower lending spreads.
In the following year, NII may slightly decline as positive impact from new loan production is offset by higher deposit pass-through and the lower costs. Moving on fees and commissions on page 18. Following a 20% annual increase during the last year, the trend is anticipated to slow down during the three-year plan period. Commissions will increase on average by 3.5% per annum, reaching 70 basis points over assets in 2025. Specifically, in 2023, fees may technically decline as they incorporate the full year effect of merchant acquiring disinvestments. Asset management and private banking are key to our strategy. Related fees are anticipated to increase at double-digit ratio in 2023, and assets under management to double over the three-year period.
Network and transaction related fees should also show a markup growth in 2023, reflecting the resilient economic activity conditions in our core markets and the record tourism season expected this year increase. Lending fees, following a 50% year-on-year growth in 2022, are expected to be slightly reduced in 2023 as corporate loan disbursements may slow down. Finally, our EUR 1.3 billion investment property portfolio will continue to produce approximately EUR 100 million rental income per annum. Moving on the transformation plan and on page 19 to 21. The launch initiatives have already started to deliver tangible results in all six pillars of the plan. We are enhancing our client-centric model, delivering more business in retail banking with less resources.
Major achievements include the launch of new digital and phygital products, new customer onboarding journey, new banking services packages, and redesigned Backbase software. In the context of providing more targeted solution to our customers, we deploy machine learning, risk analytics, and risk-based pricing tools in household and small business lending. Finally, we continue the simplification and streamlining of internal processes, increasing end-to-end efficiency and agility. The above initiatives, apart from the top line strategies, aim at streamlining our cost base so as to address the new challenges as shown on page 22. More specifically, in Greece, we target saving more than EUR 40 million on an annual base of grounded bank costs through staff rationalization, head office space optimization, branch network, and other CNA initiatives. Channeling this saving to address the persistent inflationary pressures, but also to grow the bank related investments.
In information technology digitization, but also human capital, to bringing on board, developing and properly remunerating new skilled tech people. Overall, we expect operating costs increase to increase by 2% in 2023 and remain stable over the three-year period, taking also into account the impact of contribution to resolution funds expected to be seized by 2025. In Southeastern Europe, cost base will be affected this year due to the acquisition of BNP Paribas Personal Finance Bulgaria. Furthermore, costs are anticipated to increase organically by 5%-6% per annum, reflecting the implementation of new core systems in Cyprus and Kosovo, the inflationary pressures which are more intensive to the area, and the resources needed to attract and retain talent staff, considering the high attrition rate in these countries.
Concluding this phase, the undertaking cost initiatives combined with the deployment of transformation programs, enabling the bank to address the growth challenges with less resources and drive the cost to core income ratio from 44% in 2022 to 40% or below even from 2023. Moving on to page 23 and on Southeastern Europe operations. Net income is expected to increase by circa 60% over the three-year period, reaching EUR 360 million in 2025. Main drivers of this outlook are loan growth at a high single-digit ratio per annum, lending and transaction related commissions, and the large deposit base, which gets an additional value under current interest rate environment. On capital and on page 24. Fully loaded CET1 ratio is anticipated to increase by circa 80 basis points in 2023, reaching 16%.
Organic profitability will generate circa 240 basis points of capital. Part of that will be channeled to asset growth and the buyback of HFSF shares. Impact from already announced M&A activities is expected to be neutral as the capital consumption for the acquisition of BNP in Bulgaria and the increase of our stake in Hellenic Bank to 29% are offset by the positive impact of 10-year reinvestment. In addition, this year, we plan another synthetic securitization of 1.5 billion corporate loans, contributing circa 40 basis points to capital. Furthermore, we will proceed to switching from IRB standardized risk weighting method with an adverse impact of circa 30 basis points. For 2024 and 2025, the organic profitability is anticipated to generate circa 460 basis points of capital.
Out of which almost half are channeled to asset growth and 90 basis points to dividends and buyback. Fully loaded CET1 ratio is expected to be higher than 17% at the end of 2025. Finally, on capital on page 25. Total capital will remain safe in 2023 at 19% and increase at 20% by 2025. This capital plan does not include any issuance of AT1, which may be considered in the future as an optimization tool to increase further bank distribution capacity. Concluding this presentation, we are very pleased about our budget for 2023 and new three-year business plan. Its KPIs are summarized on page 14. For this year, we target a core PPI of circa EUR 1.4 billion, which combined with a prudent cost of base of 85 basis points, concludes the core earning profit of EUR 1.1 billion.
This drives the return on tangible value to 13% and PPS to EUR 0.22. In 2025, return on tangible value remains robust at a level of at least 12% and in conjunction with the forecast capital position, set the stage for conventional shareholders rewards in the coming years. This completes my presentation. We may now open the floor for your questions.
The first question is from the line of [ Kim Mira] with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you very much for the call and the detailed guidance on the 2023-2025 business plan. I have a few questions. Firstly, it would be great to get some color on the dividend decision for 2022. As per my understanding, previously, Eurobank was planning to initiate dividends from 2022 profits. Any color around that would be much appreciated. Secondly, I just wanted to get a clarification in terms of the underlying assumptions for the 2023-2025 business plan. Is my understanding correct that the ECB rate assumption that you have staked in is 2.5%? And if that's the case, you know, rate expectations at this point are much higher. Firstly, you know, what is the reason for this conservative assumption?
Secondly, if you could perhaps talk about sensitivity to NII and also bottom line, if, you know, assuming rates are higher than this assumption, because I understand, of course, NII sensitivities are lower as rates keep increasing and one also needs to keep in mind the impact on asset quality and loan growth. Then my third and final question is on M&A and your plans for M&A in the 2023-2025 plan. If you could just comment on how you're thinking about it, which countries are you particularly looking at and what's the criteria in terms of what, you know, which countries are attractive for you? Thank you.
Okay. Thank you for your questions. Let me start for your mid question as regards the underlying assumptions about inter- base interest rates are concerned, then Fokion may address the issue of dividend decision and M&A. It is true what you said. On page 12, you may see that the ECB deposit facility used in our assumptions in our business plan is 2.5%. The reason is that when we prepared and filed our business plan to the board, and that was in December, the prevailing outlook was for that ECB rate projection.
Of course, as you very correctly noticed, we are anticipating for a higher interest rate environment of approximately 100 basis points. This of course may have positive repercussions to our P&L, but also some further threats. Let me start from the hard numbers. We have run some sensitivities on that. Assuming no change to the business plan factor rate and the deposit mix, a 100 basis points increase in base rate results in additional approximately EUR 200 million of NII. Of course, this is the positive side of the story.
However, as you correctly pointed, we may have some repercussions on the asset quality as well as on the loan growth or the spread. On that front, running our sensitivities on asset quality, we can say that on the corporate book, we feel quite comfortable about the asset quality of our corporate loans. The more sensitive loan category, I would say is mortgage loans. On that part, we have run also sensitivity, increasing the base rate to 3.5%. For almost half of the mortgage portfolio, the monthly instalment increases by approximately 15%. And for the rest 50%, the increase is quite higher to 30% on average.
However, we note here that the actual euro impact on the monthly instalment for the latter, cluster of the portfolio is close to EUR 100. In our business plan, we have to say that we have already adopted a prudent approach to account for the potential impact of increased interest rates on this positive income of the capital. For 2023, we have assumed an NPE formation positive of EUR 400 million. Again, EUR 46 million in 2022. This forecast appears quite conservative and may account for the potential impact of even higher interest rates than those assumed in the business plan. Going to loan growth.
On the loan growth, we may have an increased risk from some acceleration of loan repayments by large businesses enjoying high liquidity positions. In addition, we may have lower attractiveness of investments due to higher IRR requirements. However, we have to note here that we anyway have reflected some slowdown figures in our 2023 lending growth as group performing loans are forecast to increase by EUR 2.8 billion in 2023 versus EUR 3.3 billion in 2022. Second, the great majority of expected growth is based on the corporate book, where it is again based on a number of investment projects that are in pipeline and in advanced progress of in a status of advanced progress.
Third, a part of growth is expected to come from the RRF loans, there we should accept that investments funded by RRF have anyway lower required IRRs due to the lower average cost of funds. They are less affected, one could say, by additional increase of in-interest rates. Coming to the last part of the case, as regards loans. In our business plan, we have already assumed a 40 basis points contraction of corporate loan spread as regards 2023 versus 2022, a further 10 basis points for the following years.
Interest rate increases above 2.5% base rate is not expected based on some, let's say, market sensitivity that we have run, not result in an additional notable spread pressure, not, I would say, worse than 5 basis points-10 basis points contraction. I think I provided a thorough overview of this sensitivity, and I may pass on to Fokion for the other two legs of your question.
Thank you, Harris. Let me start from your question regarding the dividend of the 2022 financial results. As you are aware, the HFSF announced its disinvestment plan for the four Greek systemic banks back in middle January. Having reviewed this plan, we believe that it is optimal for Eurobank shareholders to use the earmarked dividend amount in order to bid for this 1.4% HFSF stake through a share buyback scheme. I think the reasons are obvious. First of all, the buyback is EPS accretive by about 1.4%. We buy the stock below the book doValue. Furthermore, the bank will exit the HFSF trend pool. This is something that we have discussed quite extensively with the SSM.
We have received positive feedback, we have already filed the formal application for this share buyback with the regulator. We expect the formal approval over the next couple of months. Obviously the ECM approval has to follow, that will drive us most likely in the second half of 2023 to submit an official offer to the HFSF. As I mentioned in my introduction, the shareholders reward has become key in our strategy for this three-year plan. Therefore, we envisage a payout ratio of at least 25%.
For cut dividends, 2023 onwards and potentially some additional share buyback programs. Moving now on your last question about the M&A opportunities and which countries this may refer to. We have stated a number of times that our group operates in three core markets, Greece, Bulgaria, and Cyprus. In these three markets, we opt to increase our activity organically, but also through M&A opportunities if such opportunities arise. The M&A would be focused on these three core markets. These markets are in a consolidation mode, especially I'm talking about Bulgaria and Cyprus, and therefore, we would explore the opportunities along these lines.
Thank you very much. That's very clear.
The next question is from the line of Mehmet Sevim with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much for the presentation. Thank you for taking my question. I have a couple additional questions, please, both on NII as well as the capital trajectory from here. First thing on NII, even taking into account a 2.5% deposit rate by the ECB, I think the outlook looks quite conservative, because I think, Charis, you mentioned EUR 330 million increase in 2023, which on a quarterly basis implies the same level of NII as in the fourth quarter. Is there anything else that you see will create some pressure like deposit betas or, you know, any additional color you can give here, or is that simply just a very conservative outlook?
In terms of the TLTRO contribution, which looks quite high in the fourth quarter, unusually, what was the reason for that, please? Excuse me, please, if I have missed that in the presentation. Finally, on the dividends and buybacks, your set one target of 17.4% for 2025 looks quite strong. Is this where you see normalized levels of capital going forward, or do you think this trajectory may allow a higher payout ratio than the 25% that you have? Specifically, I'm trying to understand, is that a target that you want to reach, or is it simply an output based on those general assumptions in the guidance? Thank you very much.
Okay, let me start from the first couple of questions regarding NII and then Fokion make comment on the last part. First of all, you may have understood that we always take some degree of conservatism on our plans. Apart from that, we have to note that in 2023, we envisage a significant increase of deposit pass rates for time deposits, we expect an increase to 60%-65% compared to close to 35% that used to be the case in the fourth quarter and 45% as we speak.
Furthermore, we expect a, let's say, quote-unquote, "deterioration of mix", in favor of time deposits that, from a current contribution of 25% is expected to increase in 2023 to another 40%. Furthermore, in 2023, we have a significant presence in our NII from MNS and TLTRO II. In aggregate, these two drivers are expected to have another contribution of close EUR 75 million-EUR 80 million compared to 2022. The further impact, adverse impact from the contraction of spread. These are the reconciling drivers between 2022 fourth quarter and 2023.
As regards the TLTRO, it is not straightforward to make some reconciliation as the quarterly bookings on TLTRO are based on the maturity of the, of each program, on the accruing methods that we follow, etc. This is the reason that you may observe this amount in the fourth quarter. I pass to Fokion to comment on the issue of capital level and distribution and so on.
Okay. On page 24, we project the capital trajectory based on the assumptions of the business plan as they have been discussed so far. I would like to clarify that there is no CET1 ratio target implied by what we have projected here. It is just the evolution of the CET1 ratio as per the assumptions of the business plan. This ratio reaching 17.4% in 2025, obviously is a very healthy CET1 ratio that should allow us to execute the dividend strategy that we have outlined. It should be also able to help us execute any sort of M&A opportunity if this comes through.
Now in terms of the payout ratio, we have assumed another at least 25%. Let me comment on that. Our position is that we have to gradually rebuild our payout policy, taking into account the concerns of stakeholders. Starting already in 2023, the payout, if not by the share buyback, is circa 15%. Therefore we build on that, and we are planning to move to higher payout ratios year- after- year. I would like also to add that on page 25, we present some additional capital options on the right part of the page that are not part of the business plan that we have presented so far.
These are additional tools that we could potentially use in an effort to optimize further our capital structure and through that enhance even more shareholder rewards. Let me come back on the previous leg of your question regarding TLTRO. To be absolutely clear with my answer, if you go on page 46 of the presentation on the left part of the page, it did will show a significant increase of TLTRO from EUR 9 million-EUR 34 million. As you may note that the footnotes, first, this analysis is based on gross income and not margin, and this is net of placements to central banks. A major part of the increase is coming from separate liquidity to central banks, and this of course, related with interest rate target points.
Okay. That's all very clear. Thanks very much.
The next question is from the line of Alexander Kantarovich with [Roemer Capital] . Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you very much for the presentation and congratulations on the results. I've got a couple of questions. The first question is regarding the cost of risk target, the 85 basis points and 60 basis points. I understand that some of that will go down to the protection fee paid for the specific securitizations. I was wondering whether you could explain what, how much of that is actually going to the specific securitizations, and also which asset classes or regions are you prioritizing on those specifics? The second one, the technical one on RWA, you said that you are switching from IRB to standardized. There was already an adjustment in your capital. Your density is already higher than the other banks use. What was the reason for that change?
Let me say a few things about cost of risk, why 85 basis points, Harry can give you the breakdown into the different components of the cost of risk. As Harry mentioned already, we have assumed a formation for the course of 2023 of EUR 400 million-EUR 450 million. This formation is quite higher from what the GDP growth and unemployment levels would imply. Just taking into account a more aggressive interest rate environment, the 2.5% as we mentioned before, we have already taken into account during policing 4% in this formation.
This formation is in line with the cost of risk of about 85 basis points, which as you said correctly, it also includes the cost that we have for the different synthetic securitizations that we have done so far. Let me pass over to Harry to give you some more details on that.
Sure. Let's start from your last part of the question regarding switch to standardize. Actually, it is about a simple cosmetic analysis. Taking into account the continuously increasing costs to maintain IRB models, in tandem with shrinking benefits, and I will elaborate further on that, versus the standardized approach, led us to the decision to switch from the IRB to standardized for 2023.
On that part, following a supervisory dialogue, our IRB model had to be calibrated to take into account the severe financial crisis in Greece over the past years, and especially taking into account the years 2011 to 2015, where the country passed over a very severe financial crisis without having the ability for any upside adjust. This, you may appreciate that we would produce very punitive RWA factors which do not reflect at all the current economic conditions in the country. Therefore, it was decided to switch from the IRB to standard times with a negative capital impact of approximately 30 basis points.
As regards to your first part of the question, out of the total cost of risk of 85 basis points, almost 2/3 is normal provisions, normal increase of provision stock. The rest, 1/3 , is both servicing fees to our services, to doValue, and cost of specific securitization. On that front, again, out of this 1/3, 2/3 is legal fees, is legal and collection fees to doValue, and 1/3 is the cost of specific securitization.
That's great. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Butkov Mikhail with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Good day. Thank you very much for the presentation. Some of my questions have already asked. The first one for me is the investors in the market, keep discussing the topic that Greece covering that kind of case, investment grade rating. From your perspective, what implications, operational implications do you see? Maybe more specifically, if I may ask on the your Greek gov, Greek government bond sensitivity to yields and repricing of that, can you get any roll back to the capital ratios in case of upon yields appreciation? What would be the size of that? More broadly on your guidance, you mentioned a reasonable level of conservatism, particularly the topics discussed or around the NII.
Do you see any other areas of upside or maybe, risk on the downside, around the guidance, which, you might, share on for highlight? Thank you.
Let me start from your question, the first question. Investment grade in Greece and how this may affect our GGB holdings. We would expect investment grade most likely in the second half of the year, given the progress that the country has done, but also given the progress that the banking sector has done in terms of the NPE ratio and the capital ratio. The effect of investment grade into the banks is going to be twofold. It should allow us to issue MREL securities at lower spreads or at a lower cost, which is something quite important given the size of the MREL securities.
Would also benefit the spread of GGBs, which to some extent already happening as you see, GGBs are trading through the Italian BTPs. This is something that the market has already started pricing. In our case, given that most of our bonds is in the amortised cost portfolio, we don't expect to see any sort of immediate bottom line effect because of the investment grade, the sovereign investment grade. I would say that for Eurobank, the main positive effect will come through the issuance of MREL securities.
Harry, moving on to the other question.
Yes. Regarding try to, let's say, to list the downsides and upside risks of our plan.
In general, I try to be quite prudent on the assumptions. Regarding downside risks, of course, you may appreciate that interest rates may affect positively NII, but negatively may have a negative impact on low growth and asset quality in the way that I explained before. We have referred to the loan spread contraction due to higher interest rates, but also to market conditions and the intense competition that there is in the market for corporate loans. The pass-through rates is a very sensitive driver of our business plan, although we try to accommodate a quite conservative view on the pass-through rate and on the mix.
Perhaps the political risks are taking also into account the latest events. However, you may have perceived that there are also some upsides risks, starting from the macro assumptions that we have made and that are summarized on page 12. We have assumed the GDP growth of 2%. It may be the case that growth may be higher than 2%. We have assumed unemployment of 11.8% average for the year. Already January, we enjoy an unemployment of 10.8%, a mark that we have many, many years to see. Of course, the higher base rates, as explained, are expected to have a positive impact on our NII at the first place.
Now, we have made quite conservative assumptions on asset quality. We have assumed the formation of EUR 400 million and the cost of risk that actually reflects the formation of 85 basis points. The situation may be that, due to a number of credit positive factors, formation may be lower, and in turn may have also lower cost of risk. These are in a nutshell the upside, the downside risk. I don't know if you want to share anything.
Mr. Butkov's line has been disconnected, we'll now move on to our next question. The next question is from the line of Memisoglu Osman with Ambrosia Capital. Please go ahead.
Hello. Many thanks for the presentation and your time. I have a question on your NII breakdown. The bond and derivatives income seems to have jumped quite sharply from about EUR 7- EUR 88. Could you give us some color on that? Is that more derivatives driven? I see the securities book had a slight increase or maybe year pick up in it. You know, what should out to see what resulted in the guidance for this these things? On the capital side, I'm guessing this 30 basis points on the switch is one-off, and it's not included in your walkthrough for capital going forward. If you could confirm that. Thank you.
Sure. Let me start from the second leg of your question. The answer is it is included. If you go on page, give me one second. On page 24, you go to note five, the -15 basis points includes an adverse impact from market risk, a positive impact from synthetic securitization, as I just mentioned, of EUR 1.5 billion, and the Swiss standardized approach, the 30 basis points. It is +40 coming from the bond securitization, -30, we have -30 from Swiss standardized, another 20-25 basis points from market risk and other regulatory adjustments. It is therein included.
Now, let me turn to your next question regarding bonds and derivatives. I repeat what I said before, that here, we have the numbers based on gross income basis. These are affected and these are affected by the interest rate movement. Considering that our bonds have turned into floating, almost 100% to derivatives, this reflects first the movement of base interest rates, but also we had an increase in the volume of bonds and securities from 13 billion at the end of September to 13.4 billion. An increase of close to EUR 400 million that also contributed to this increase.
Could I follow up, Harry? Thank you for that. If you go to slide 17, the walk through to 2023 NII, you have EUR 40 million from other. What would the bond slash derivatives contribution be year-over-year?
Sure.
Is that what you can provide?
The bonds have a positive contribution in 2023 of close to 200 million EUR. Part of this, 40 is therein included, 200 million EUR that becomes close to 210 in 2025. Furthermore, on that, in that line, we have included. The negative impact from REPO, the negative impact from MREL, from senior MREL, and the negative impact of Tier 2.
The main, let's say, negative variance that, as we observe the +40 becomes -100%, the major driver of this negative variance, it comes from new senior issuances and the new Tier 2 issuances as we described on page 15 on the bottom right part of the presentation.
Okay. Thank you very much.
The next question is from the line of Nellis Simon with Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks very much for the opportunity. Most of my questions have actually been answered, I got a few. Can you just indicate what's the nature of the quite strong trading and other income was in the fourth quarter? That'd be interesting in the outlook there. Also, could you just help walk through your NPE reduction plans over the next three years and how you expect to deliver that? Are there some one-off costs that aren't in the budget or in the plan that just haven't been disclosed that will make that happen? Last, if you could just talk a bit about your Southeast operations and how you're gonna deliver that 60% profit growth.
Is it coming mostly from Cyprus or from Bulgaria, or is this an even mix between the two? Yeah, just on your intentions with Hellenic Bank, are you looking to acquire more as a task holder? Thank you.
Let me start on the non-core income that we had in the fourth quarter of 2022. It is EUR 100 million on a group basis. First, it includes the investment property fair doValue that takes place at the end of each year. This is EUR 40 million. The rest, 60 more or less, it is trading gains related to hedging derivatives. As regards the one-off that we expect for the budget, we expect below the line... Let me make a step before. As regards other income, trading and other income, we expect this to return back to normalized levels, i.e., not more than EUR 8,100 million per annum.
As regards the below the line items, we expect a positive impact of close to EUR 100 million. The major part coming from the negative goodwill coming from the recognition of Hellenic Bank as an associate upon the completion of the acquisition of the 16% that we have acquired by Wargaming, something that is expected by the end of March. Let me pass to Fokion to explain to you all about the background of our NPE plan, and I will return to the composition of our profitability in Southeastern Europe.
In terms of the NPE evolution, as we mentioned already, we ended 20.2%. Despite the fact that we have assumed in our plan for 2023 a positive formation of EUR 400 million, the NPE ratio will remain at 5.2% due to a number of liquidations, write-offs, and also the growth of our loan book is dominating effect. By 2025, we project the NPE ratio to decline to 4.5% or lower. This is going to be done primarily through internal workouts and collections. We are not anticipating at this point any further material transactions.
The reduction this year, are you gonna have to take some extraordinary costs that aren't really being flagged here?
No, no.
Everything is included in the risk cost?
Everything is included on the 85 basis points cost of risk.
As regards the composition of profitability in, from international, 50% is coming from Bulgaria. I told you about 35, 2025. 50% is coming from Bulgaria, 40% from Cyprus, and 10% from Luxembourg.
Got it. Okay. To get the Cyprus number, do you need to increase your stake in Hellenic further?
The, this is something that we would evaluate according to developments that we see, in this market. We monitor very carefully, and if there is any opportunity, we are going to consider it very seriously.
Okay. Okay. That's all from me. Thank you very much.
The next question is from the line of Garrido Luis with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. I have two, please. The first on capital. You noted that on slide 14, the capital guide that you have is just sort of an output of the other assumptions. Do you have a management target for the CET1 ratio, please? And in that context, can you give us a sense of how many percentage points of CET1 ratio you would be comfortable giving up for M&A? My second question is on the acquisition of BNP Paribas Personal Finance in Bulgaria. Can you talk a little bit about why this is a more interesting asset for Eurobank than for BNP? Thank you.
Okay. Let me start from the second question. BNP had this operation in Bulgaria, which as a matter of fact was and still is a very profitable operation with very interesting penetration in the local consumer lending market. Eurobank is a universal bank in Bulgaria. Therefore we have the full spectrum of products across retail, but also important relationships with corporates and retailers. Therefore, we expect to have quite some interesting synergies out of the acquisition of Visopsis. You may recall that we have done a number of mergers in Bulgaria. 2016, we had absorbed the Alpha Bank operation there. 2019, it was the Bank of Piraeus operations.
All of them produce quite important synergies, both in terms of revenue as well as in terms of cost. The same we expect to be the case for the absorption of this consumer lending unit. Now, in terms of capital targeting, we want to be comfortably above the regulatory ratios. I would say to be about 100 to 200 basis points, maybe closer to 200 basis points, more than the regulatory ratios.
From what we have presented here, we're well above this buffer that we want to have in our CET1, which should allow us either to move on the M&A side, again, only if there is the right opportunity or to be more active in terms of our shareholding rewarding plan.
Okay. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Karavias for any closing comments. Thank you.
Let me thank you all for participating in this conference call. We had quite a number of questions. I think this should have provided more color to our plan. We are planning to be in London early next week and in the U.S. in the beginning of April. We are looking forward to meeting you there if you have more interest to discuss about our plan. Thank you.