Eurobank S.A. (ATH:EUROB)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Nov 10, 2022

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I am Mina, your conference call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Eurobank Holdings conference call to present and discuss the third quarter 2022 financial results. All participants will be in a listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question and answer session. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator at 650 on your telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Fokion Karavias, CEO. Mr. Karavias, you may now proceed.

Fokion Karavias
CEO, Eurobank

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon, and welcome to Eurobank's 9 months 2022 results presentation. Together with me is our CFO, Harris Kokologiannis, and the investor relations team. I will start with an overview of recent developments before we present our results. The global macroeconomic environment remains fragile, with risks to the downside. As more aggressive interest rate policy by central banks may drive recession to different levels in Europe next year. The prolonged war in Ukraine, the lack of an EU common policy to deal with the energy crisis and sticky core inflation add to a more uncertain environment. Against this backdrop, Greece enjoys a better outlook. Economic growth in 2022 is a positive surprise, with full-year estimates revised to 6%. This growth is not only based on tourism or consumption, but also on strong exports, record FDIs, and rapidly increasing investments.

Tax revenues are also outperforming, and we estimate that the primary deficit, despite the one-off energy support measures, may be lower than the revised budget target of 1.7%. Asset quality remains resilient as the client's payment behavior has not shown any signs of deterioration. Moreover, private sector deposits keep increasing this year by EUR 5.5 billion in the 9-month period, and residential real estate price appreciation accelerated to 9.5% in the second quarter. However, the growth for 2023 is estimated at 2.1%, with risks on the downside. This significant growth slowdown is mainly due to the weak European environment. In this context, we remain cautious and monitor closely asset quality trends as these are usually lagging the economic cycle. Let's now focus on our financial results for the 9-month period, with highlights shown on slide 5.

Our strong performance continues across all business lines in the nine-month period. Third quarter was robust, with net profits at EUR 173 million, which drove the nine-month figure into EUR 932 million. As a result, our tangible book value per share increased by 16% year-on-year to EUR 1.63. It is important that key operational trends keep improving. Specifically, looking at the core operating lines for the nine-month period compared with the previous year, we notice NII increased by 8%. Fees and commission grew by 21%. Operating expenses were slightly increased by 4.7% at the group level. However, the cost to core income ratio is down to 46% and three percentage points improvement.

As a result of the above, corporate provision income was up 18%, with third quarter core PPI reaching EUR 289 million. The cost of risk ratio reached 68 basis points. Therefore, core operating profit, that is core PPI minus provisions, increased 66% year-on-year, reaching EUR 592 million, of which EUR 212 million in the third quarter. Furthermore, the operations outside Greece had another quarter of solid performance, with profits increasing by 39% in the nine-month period to EUR 153 million, mainly due to strong contribution from UK area and Cyprus. Our capital base strengthened significantly on a year-on-year basis. Third quarter performance added another 20 basis points to our capital ratios, despite the significant new loan production.

Total capital ratio reached 17.2%, up 160 basis points in the last 12 months, while the fully loaded CET1 ratio increased by 190 basis points to 14.2%. Great expansion and deposits growth continued to be strong in the third quarter. As a result, performing loans and deposits increased by EUR 2.5 billion each in the 9-month period, with all our core markets contributing to this performance. Last but not least, on asset quality metrics, NPE formation remained flattish in the third quarter, which is a performance better than our initial expectations. The NPE ratio dropped further to 5.6%, and NPE coverage approached 73%. Now, in summary, Q3 was another strong quarter. Overall, our 9-month results were definitely robust, and the trends point to full-year 2022 outlook higher than our previous estimates.

Thus, we revise upwards our targets again for the full year 2022, and we now expect core operating profit of EUR 800 million, which is circa EUR 200 million higher than the initial target. The fully loaded CET1 ratio is expected to reach 14.6% by year-end, including the effect of a synthetic securitization we are working on. In this context, we keep targeting dividend distribution out of 2022 earnings. As serious downside risks exist for the European macro outlook and following a recent discussion with our supervisor, we will further review such a decision with the SSM in the period closer to our annual general assembly date. By then, we will have available the actual full year 2022 financial results and hopefully more visibility about the impact of the external challenges.

At this point, I would like to ask our CFO, Harris Kokologiannis, to present our third quarter results and the outlook before opening the Q&A session.

Harris Kokologiannis
CFO, Eurobank

Thank you, Fokion. Let's now provide some more insights to the third quarter results. Starting on page 19 on lending growth. Performing loans increased organically in the quarter by EUR 900 million, driven by corporate sector in Greece and Southeastern Europe. Year to date, performing loans grew by EUR 2.5 billion, out of which EUR 1.7 billion coming from Greek corporate and EUR 0.6 billion from Bulgaria. Considering the year-to-date performance and current pipeline, we envisage a full year net organic growth of circa EUR 3 billion. Moving on to liquidity on page 20. As shown at the right of the page, group deposits increased in the third quarter by EUR 1.7 billion, mainly due to retail Greece, Bulgaria, and Cyprus. Year to date, group deposits are up by EUR 2.5 billion.

Net loans deposit ratio decreased to 74.3%, while LCR ratio reached 169%, as shown on the left of the page. Moving to MREL on page 21. Our MREL ratio as at September end amounted to 21.3%, which is 85 basis points higher than the interim target of January 2023. This is a result of the last year conditions and of the capital generation through our current profitability and capital enhancing transactions. Moving to profitability on page 25. Net interest income increased quarter-on-quarter by 5.6% to EUR 381 million. NII has been affected positively by the base rate increase and the higher loan and bond volumes, and negatively by the second quarter one-off and the senior preferred bond issued in June. On a year-on-year basis, NII is higher by 8.1%.

On page 26, commission income increased quarter-on-quarter by 4.7%, despite the Merchant Acquiring divestment at the end of June. Fee income has been boosted by higher lending, capital markets, network related and cards issuing fees. On a year-on-year basis, commissions are higher by 21.1%, and fees over assets ratio increased to 68 basis points. On page 27, group costs are higher year-on-year by 4.7%. In Greece, operating expenses, despite the inflationary pressures, are almost flat year-on-year as the lower staff costs offset higher energy, IT maintenance, and depreciation expenses. In Southeastern Europe, cost is higher due to direct numbers in Serbia and higher staff cost in Bulgaria. Cost to core income ratio has been improved year-on-year by 3 percentage points, decreasing to 46.1%.

Notwithstanding the above improvement, cost management under current inflation conditions will continue to be challenging for the coming periods. Moreover, we have to fulfill our growth above targets, including further investment in IT and digital. In this context, we continue optimizing our underlying bank expenses. This is pursued through renegotiating contracts with significant suppliers, launching energy saving initiatives and rationalizing staff network related costs, targeting a further improvement of our cost-to-core income ratio. On page 29, we summarize operating performance for the 9 months of 2022. Core PPI is higher year-on-year by 17.7% at EUR 795 million, driven by performing loans and bonds NII, higher commissions and core income from Southeastern Europe, which more than offset lower income from NPEs. Loan loss provisions were lower by 36% at EUR 203 million.

Overall, we had another strong quarter and as a result, core operating profit is higher year-on-year by 66% at EUR 592 million. Moving on to asset quality on page 31. Also on the top left of the page, NP formation in the third quarter was slightly positive by EUR 18 million, which leads to an almost flat reading for the nine months of the year. NP stock decreased by EUR 94 million and NP ratio to 5.6%. This translates to EUR 2.4 billion gross NP for the group and EUR 660 million net of provision stock. Cost of risk increased to 75 basis points in Q3, staying higher than normalized levels.

Despite the asset quality performance year to date, which has not shown signs of material deterioration and is substantially better than business plan and macroeconomic outlook remains fragile with risks to the downside. This makes us take a precautionary stance, introducing a margin of conservatism for the period ahead. Finally, on this page, coverage in the third quarter increased further to 72.7%. Moving on to capital and on page 36. Our fully loaded CET1 ratio increased quarter-on-quarter by 20 basis points to 14.2%. This is due to the quarterly profitability which offset bond mark-to-market and the impact of business growth on RWAs. Furthermore, on page 37, our total CAP ratio increased similarly to 17.2%. Finally, as regards full year outlook on page 7.

Considering the core profitability trends, we revised upwards our estimate of core operating profit to circa EUR 800 million from EUR 610 million in the business plan. This translates to a year-on-year increase of circa 65% and better performance versus initial guidance by EUR 190 million. The above reading assumes a core PPI close to EUR 1.1 billion and the cost of risk for the year of circa 70 basis points. Furthermore, taking into account the updated profitability outlook and the new synthetic securitization of EUR 1.7 billion shipping loans expected to be completed within the year, we revise our guidance for the year-end fully loaded CET ratio at 14.6%, and for the total CAP ratio at 17.5%.

These ratings are higher on the initial targets by 100 and 110 basis points respectively. This concludes my presentation, and we may now open the floor for your questions.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on your telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, then you may press star and two. Please use your handset when asking your question for better quality. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. One moment for the first question, please.

The first question is with Mr. Al Alevizakos with AXIA Ventures. Please go ahead.

Al Alevizakos
Managing Director, AXIA Ventures

Hi, thank you very much and well done for a very good set of results. I've got a couple of questions. The first question comes to the new target of 14.6% Core Tier 1 capital ratio for year end. I understand that this is going to be due to some organic performance in the fourth quarter. It includes also the synthetic securitization. Can I assume that it includes your assumption on the dividend as well? What I'm trying to understand here is how much the synthetic securitization will add and how much are you taking into account for the dividend? I've got a second question on MREL. It looks a bit higher than my expectation, about 30 basis points. I'm wondering whether there is something inside of that except for the senior preferred. Thank you very much.

Fokion Karavias
CEO, Eurobank

Thank you for your question. As you may see on page seven, the target for the year-end is up 14.6% compared to 14.2. That is as of today, and 14.6, that was the initial business plan. Actually, the 40 basis point increase in the fourth quarter is expected as a result of the synthetic securitization that is expected to give close to 40 basis points to our capital. The organic perspective profitability of the quarter and on the negative side, of course, we have the organic growth impact as a result of the RWA. It doesn't include any approval for dividend. As it comes, as regards the MREL ratio, actually, it doesn't include something more than the senior preferred issued in June.

The organic capital impact, i.e., the organic capital generation.

Al Alevizakos
Managing Director, AXIA Ventures

Okay. All right. If I may follow up, regarding the cost of risk, I can see that you've upgraded the target by about 5 basis points from 65 to 70. At the same time, I see that you are increasing also the coverage. I suppose that this is something like a precautionary measure ahead of a difficult winter ahead?

Fokion Karavias
CEO, Eurobank

This is true. Let me take as an opportunity your question to give you a broader outlook about what we see in terms of asset quality. Starting from what we have seen already in the third quarter of 2022. As we have discussed, and we saw on page 31, and information was positive but very low at EUR 80 million. Overall, EUR 11 billion in the nine-month period. This is substantially lower than our expectations that we have discussed in previous calls. I think it is also interesting to have a look at the formation by segment, which is shown on page 32. The trends that we have discussed during the previous call remain the same.

More specifically, the corporate segment, which is on the bottom right of page 32, keeps showing negative formation. The trade segment shows positive formation, although in low numbers. In summary, as we mentioned already, we have not seen any sort of deterioration on asset quality trends. Although we do recognize that inflation and higher interest rates are impacting on households available income in corporate markets. In this context, we have run some thorough analysis of our portfolios, not only in Greece, but in all our core markets. The main conclusions of this analysis is that overall, we feel comfortable with our corporate exposures, as corporate balances remain quite robust. In retail in Greece, the most sensitive loan segment is the mortgage loans.

Because of that, we have segmented our portfolio, and we have run an interest rate sensitivity analysis on that with the following results. For a total security yield increase by 300 basis points. 50% of the mortgage portfolio has a relatively small effect on monthly installments, around 10%. The rest 50%, the impact is about 20%-25% monthly installment increase, which is not a small number. If we look at the actual EUR impact on the monthly installment of this larger segment, this is about EUR 60-EUR 70, which is a relatively manageable amount. This is what our analysis has shown.

At the same time, we should take into account some credit positive factors that some of them we mentioned already. These are the increase of private deposits by EUR 5.5 billion in the nine-month period, a trend which continued in the third quarter. Second, the government support measures related to energy costs that has mitigated the high energy prices for most of the households, and this is a total package of about EUR 16 billion. The strong growth in the economy in 2022, but also the expectation of strong positive growth in 2023. In terms of unemployment, we have some graphs, quite interesting graphs on page 45 that you could look at. Unemployment may keep dropping, reaching the lowest levels of the past decade.

Last but not least, we see a positive wealth effect through real estate prices. Real estate prices, which keep improving as we present on page 48 of the presentation. Now, outside Greece, we have run a similar exercise inside groups for which we present some metrics on page 16. We have no exposure to the retail segment, and none of the indicators point to any sort of deterioration so far. NPEs are very low, about 2.2%, and their coverage is extremely high at 19%. In Bulgaria, which is on page 15, there is an exposure both on the retail and the corporate segment. However, in this country, there are significant wage increases that have taken place during the last several months.

These increases feed negatively on the inflation, which is one of the highest in the EU, but wage increases improve the ability for loan servicing. The private sector leverage remains low in this economy. It is less than 60% of the GDP. In particular, for our bank, the NPA ratio has declined below 4% with coverage more than 80%. Overall, what we have seen is quite relaxing at the moment. For the fourth quarter 2023, performance at the group level is anticipated to be positive and higher than that of the fourth quarter of 2022.

However, despite the trends that we have seen so far and despite the analysis that we have run, which is, as I said, quite reassuring, we should take into account that NPE formation may be a lagging indicator. Therefore, as Harry mentioned before, we have adopted a prudent and proactive approach in our provisioning OAC, introducing a sort of margin of conservatism. As a result, the cost of risk increased from the 64 basis points in the second quarter to 75 basis points in the third quarter. For the full year, 2022, the cost of risk now is estimated to have a circa 70 basis points instead of 65. The NPE coverage will remain high. This is the mathematical effect of higher cost of risk and relatively low formation.

Therefore, the NPA coverage will remain circa 70% and the NPA ratio should further decrease to 5.5%.

Al Alevizakos
Managing Director, AXIA Ventures

Thank you very much. That was comprehensive. Thank you again for the presentation.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Osman Memisoglu with Ambrosia. Please go ahead.

Osman Memisoglu
Head Of Research, Ambrosia

Hello. Many thanks for your time and the presentation. Thank you for giving the revised estimates. I was wondering if you could give us a bit more color on the NII outlook for 2022, your plans on TLTRO, because of cost developments. And also your Q3 fee performance was quite impressive, despite losing the merchant acquiring part. Anyone else there, what's the outlook for fees forward and beyond? Thank you.

Fokion Karavias
CEO, Eurobank

Thank you, Osman, for the questions. If I miss some of your all the details of the question, please let me know. Overall, the nine months performance has been strong across all areas despite the volatile environment. For the full year 2022, core PPI is now expected to reach EUR 1.1 billion versus EUR 865 million that was initial guidance, and EUR 1 billion that was the previous one, and core operating profits at EUR 800 million. It is EUR 50 million higher than the previous one provided in the previous results call.

As a result, normalized regulatory tangible value may be a bit higher than 11% and normalized EPS at EUR 0.17. Now, as regards the constituents of the core PPI for the full year 2022, you may make your calcs about the fourth quarter. NII is expected to increase by low teens year-on-year, between 12%-13%. Against a drop of 6% in our initial business plan. Of course, the delta is due to the high income from rising Euribor rates. We now have incorporated the 200 basis points increase of ECB rates from July to up to now, and a further 50 basis points expected in November.

Furthermore, the boost on NII is expected by higher credit expansion. We expect loan growth of EUR 3 billion.

For the full year of 2022, increased bond position since in 2022, we should have increased positions by close to EUR 2 billion compared to the end of the previous year. It is true, changing lending fee than going through fee commissions that they showed a noteworthy performance in 2022 so far. For the full year of 2022, we expect fees to grow at a mid-teen level, I would say, against the 6% previous estimate, mainly on lending fees. I would say that lending fees, capital markets, including investment banking and network related fees are the main drivers of this better than expected performance.

These actually offset the lack that we had as per the initial performance, initial expectations on the asset management and wealth related fees due to the macroeconomic uncertainties. That's about fee commissions. As regards deposit cost, in general, the deposit cost remains quite subdued. However, in due time deposits should follow the trends of Euribor rates. In our model specifically, we have assumed that the pass-through rate for time deposits will gradually increase from current levels to around 60%-70% next year. Now your next point was about TLTRO. Correct.

As we got TLTRO, as you know very well, the governing council of ECB decided at the end of October, that as of 23rd of November, interest rates start again. As averaging with two credit-only periods with beneficial rates is eliminated. In this context, the governing council also decided to offer banks additional voluntary early repayment dates. The first question is whether we plan to redeem in whole or in part our TLTRO. The answer is most probably not, because from a profitability point of view, is going to be neutral. However, we have certain HTC benefits, which we don't want to lose.

Most probably we are going to keep TLTRO until its maturity. As regards the impact of the ECB decision on our NII for 2022 is zero. Because the banks already are pricing at the current and not the averaging rates. For 2023, of course, we get a theoretical impact, i.e., the impact of the ECB decision versus the stage before the decision is going to have an impact close to EUR 50 million for 2023 and close to EUR 30 million for 2024. I don't know whether I have missed some. Or I have answered.

Osman Memisoglu
Head Of Research, Ambrosia

No, no, that's very helpful. Just one follow-up, if I may. On the time deposit side, you mentioned pass-through is likely to increase to 60%-70%. Are you, would you be sharing what it's like these days? And also, are you seeing any deposit shift from savings and sight to time deposits in a material way these days?

Harris Kokologiannis
CFO, Eurobank

Answering your second part of the question, the answer is no. At the end of a couple of months earlier, the time deposits accounting for close to 15% of total. As we speak, they account to 18%-19%. There is some small shift, but not something material. I'm not sure I have understood the first part of your

Osman Memisoglu
Head Of Research, Ambrosia

Sorry. That was for pass-through assumption.

Harris Kokologiannis
CFO, Eurobank

Yes, yes. Yes, yes. The answer is yes. It was about the pass-through rate.

Osman Memisoglu
Head Of Research, Ambrosia

It's 60-70 you assume next year. What is it like these days? I'm guessing it's at a lower-

Harris Kokologiannis
CFO, Eurobank

Around, quite lower, close to 20%, I would say.

Osman Memisoglu
Head Of Research, Ambrosia

Thank you very much.

Harris Kokologiannis
CFO, Eurobank

Yeah.

Operator

Next question is from the line of Mehmet Sevim from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Mehmet Sevim
Executive Director and Head of CEEMEA Financials Equity Research, JPMorgan

Good evening. Thank you very much for the presentation. I'll just have one clarification on your new EUR 800 million operating profit guidance for the full year. Obviously, this is a very solid target, but at the same time, if you look at the 9-month delivery, it sounds like you are guiding for a flat development in the last quarter compared to 3Q. Even then there will be more rates impact to be seen in the last quarter, as you also commented. Are you baking in any explicit slowdown elsewhere, or is this simply just a relatively conservative road to guidance, let's say?

Fokion Karavias
CEO, Eurobank

No. The answer is no. We don't expect any slowdown in any material way at, let's say any part of our operations. Of course, in the fourth quarter, we are going to have higher NII due to the Euribor rates. Fees are expected quite strong. On the other side, due to seasonality, we should expect higher OpEx level and a higher cost of risk as a result of in order to reach, let's say the envisaged level. As you may appreciate that, as usual, we provide the estimates that are, let's say, in our conservative context.

Mehmet Sevim
Executive Director and Head of CEEMEA Financials Equity Research, JPMorgan

Yeah. Okay. That's all. Very clear. Thank you. Thank you again for all the commentary on asset quality in 2023 earlier. Now, taking into account all the data that you have at your disposal today and the ones you mentioned, is it reasonable to expect that cost of risk would remain at current levels next year? Or, should it go towards normalized levels, or should it go up? So what's your bottom line on this, so to say?

Fokion Karavias
CEO, Eurobank

As we said for this year, we expect a cost of risk of 70 basis points. These days, we are effectively forming the budget for 2023. I would like to share with you views about the cost of risk, but also other lines of income statement upon its completion.

Mehmet Sevim
Executive Director and Head of CEEMEA Financials Equity Research, JPMorgan

All right. Fair enough. Thank you. Finally, maybe just on the dividend, I really do appreciate it's quite early and the process will start at a later time. Is there an ongoing discussion with the SSM already, given you know, all the headlines we see also at the European level at the moment? What would you say is your overall comfort level with an initial dividend payment from this year's earnings?

Fokion Karavias
CEO, Eurobank

As we have said during the previous calls, but actually you also mentioned a few minutes ago, we have a continuous dialogue with the SSM on this area, on the issue of dividend, along with other issues. What is a fact is that the 2022 performance was much stronger than the initial budget that we had shared with the SSM. It is our view that this strong performance justifies a dividend distribution. As such, our board keeps targeting dividend distribution out of the 2022 earnings at a prudent payout ratio, as we have also said it before. Now, on the negative side, there exist downside risks because of the big European macro outlook.

In the context of the dialogue that we have with the SSM, we had the opportunity to discuss the above in a recent constructive meeting that we had. The conclusion of this meeting is what I mentioned, that we will review further this issue in 2023, in a period closer to our annual meeting. By then, we're going to have in place the actual full year 2022 financial results, the 2023 budget, and as I said, hopefully more visibility about the external challenges.

Mehmet Sevim
Executive Director and Head of CEEMEA Financials Equity Research, JPMorgan

Okay. That's all very clear. Thanks very much.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Daniel David with Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.

Daniel David
Director of Credit Analyst, Autonomous Research

Great, congratulations on the results and thanks for taking my questions. I've just got a quick one on MREL, noting the transaction you did earlier in the year. Are you looking at Q4 to print potentially more MREL? Also you've got the Tier 2. Should we kind of expect you to look at the Tier 2, based on your previous comments before printing more senior? Just an update would be great. Thanks.

Fokion Karavias
CEO, Eurobank

Okay. Let me provide you a general overview as regards MREL and Tier 2. As you may see on page 21 of the presentation, based on the latest, I mean, the senior MREL requirement is 27.4% of RWAs. There is a shortfall of close to EUR 2.5 billion to be covered in the next three years by end of 2025. The interim non-binding MREL target for January 1, 2023 is 20.5%, and we already have exceeded this by 85 basis points. That is equivalent to close to EUR 400 million. As MREL ratio stands at 21.3% in

Nine months of 2022. For the fourth quarter, we are not anticipating any other transaction. For next year, obviously we should have the market for senior preferred to reach the target of 2024 now. However, the exact amount will be defined following the completion of 2023 budget and of course, equally important, the capital plan. Now as regards tier two. I remind you that what I mentioned in the previous call as well, but according to the agreement signed with the Greek state that has fully subscribed the issue. A call option kicks in as of February next year.

In parallel as the instrument is entering its sixth year of tenure, it starts a gradual linear phase out of a regulatory contribution of 20% per annum or by EUR 190 million per annum. Now, taking into account the market volatility, we are exploring all options at the time, including not to redeem the current instrument as it is, apart from Tier 2, it is an MREL eligible instrument and its implied spread compares very well with senior preferred spreads. In this case, we will proceed in the forthcoming, let's say, quarters to smaller partial Tier 2 issuances commensurate to the heavy capital phase out of the current instrument.

Daniel David
Director of Credit Analyst, Autonomous Research

Thanks. Could I just double check? I think you said you weren't looking at the market in Q4. Was that just in relation to MREL or MREL and tier two?

Fokion Karavias
CEO, Eurobank

Most probably both.

Daniel David
Director of Credit Analyst, Autonomous Research

Okay. Thank you.

Fokion Karavias
CEO, Eurobank

Thank you.

Operator

As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question comes from the line of Luis Garrido with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

Luis Garrido
VP of Banks Credit Research Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Yes. Hello, good afternoon. I have two questions for you. The first, on asset quality, can you give me some indication of what you think is a reasonable stress loan loss rate in mortgages? Maybe some color on why you think that this cycle might be different than the previous stress period. Then secondly, on fees, you have a fairly upbeat outlook on the increase in fees, in the context of households squeezed with, you know, you mentioned like 20%-25% higher monthly mortgage costs. What do you think your competitors will do here? Do you think these increases in fees will be even sort of strategically possible? Thank you.

Harris Kokologiannis
CFO, Eurobank

Let me start with the fees. If I understand correctly your question, yes, we are a bit higher on our outlook for full year 2022. We now expect a mid-teens increase. The major part of this increase is coming from the business side. From the corporate side, it relates to the lending related commissions, i.e., new lending, letters of guarantee and loan commitment. This is a major driver of lending fees increase. The other major driver relates as well with the institutional markets. It relates to capital markets and investment banking. Another part relates with network transactions and credit cards.

This is related more to the growth of the economy and the credit growth. I'm not sure I can answer this.

Luis Garrido
VP of Banks Credit Research Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Yeah. No, that makes sense. Thank you very much. Just on the asset quality, maybe I was just wondering if you have a reference point for a stress scenario on loan loss rate in mortgages in the past, and maybe if you could comment on how this cycle might be different, if it indeed is.

Harris Kokologiannis
CFO, Eurobank

Yeah. Let me answer your question from a qualitative point of view and to repeat what I said before that, out of our different loan portfolios in Greece and also in the region, we have identified the Greek market portfolio as the most sensitive to the current challenges for obvious reasons. We have run a detailed analysis on this portfolio, especially looking on how sensitive is this portfolio to rate increases. We have identified that 50% of this portfolio is going to experience material increases in terms of monthly installments in the area of 20%-25%.

Which is something that we should keep in the back of our minds and monitor very closely month after month. Now, on the positive, although this percentage change is not small in terms of euro amount, it translates to about 60-70 EUR increase, which is not a very big amount. It is a relatively manageable amount. Now these are obviously averages, and there are segments within sub-segments within the segment that have a higher installment increases. Definitely our focus over the next few quarters are going to be to monitor very closely this portfolio.

Luis Garrido
VP of Banks Credit Research Analyst, Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Great. Thank you.

Operator

As a final reminder to register for a question, please press Star and one on your telephone. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Karavias for any closing comments. Thank you.

Fokion Karavias
CEO, Eurobank

Let me thank you all for participating in this call. Let me also thank you for your questions. I'm going to be available for any sort of follow-up. Also Eurobank is going to participate in the Athens Exchange event in London in about a couple weeks, 15, 20 days, and we're looking forward to meet most of you there. Thank you very much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded. You may disconnect your telephones. Thank you for calling and have a pleasant evening.

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