Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I am Gail Lee, your Chorus Call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the OTE conference call and live webcast to present and discuss the fourth quarter 2023 financial results. All participants will be in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on your telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Michael Tsamaz, Chairman and CEO, Mr. Babis Mazarakis, Chief Financial Officer, and Mr. Evrikos Sarsentis, Head of IR and M&A. Mr. Tsamaz, you may now proceed.
Good morning or good afternoon. I'm pleased to be here with all of you again and to welcome you to OTE's fourth quarter and full year 2023 results call. 2023 has been an interesting and somewhat surprising year for many, but not for us. When it started, we were prepared for the impact of the reshuffling of our competitive environment, and our readiness paid off in quarter after quarter. We remain convinced that our most powerful competitive advantage is the quality of the infrastructure we have built over the past decade, and more, together with the passion for customer service that runs through our organization. We did not deviate from these principles last year as competition became more intense. We had good ground, and I believe that the whole market benefited from our discipline and determination. Quarter after quarter, revenues from our Greek retail fixed services improved.
Ending on a positive fourth quarter with solid performances in broadband and TV, mobile service revenues delivered strong performances over the year, and even more so if you strip our visitor revenues, which were impacted by tariff renegotiations. In the meantime, ICT revenues, which have been an important driver of growth in the first half, bounced back in the fourth quarter, as we had expected, after a temporary slowdown caused by the change in public administration following the country's elections. All told, we entered a year of intensifying competition in Greece, with revenues and EBITDA up a little over 1%, recommendable performance as we faced increased competition in fixed and mobile, delays in ICT projects, lower visitor roaming tariffs, regulatory refusal of inflation-based adjustments, and deferred state subsidies to fixed-line upgrades.
The progress we have made in all relevant KPIs highlights the success of our efforts and supports our top-line growth. Set in a positive 2024 framework, now most of these headwinds have been eliminated. Starting with broadband, where we had another significant rise in the number of subscribers during the year, and nearly nine out of 10 of our access customers are now broadband users. Our high-speed base has also grown sharply, as is the number of our fiber subscribers. As you know, fiber-to-the-home rollout has been a key priority for us in the recent past, and we have invested significantly to build fiber-to-the-home access. As of the end of the year, OTE alone accounted for over 80% of the country's active fiber-to-the-home infrastructure, with more than 1.3 million homes passed.
Where we lay fiber, demand follows. It even rises. We are closing in on a 20% utilization rate, up sharply from the level one year ago, despite the huge increase in our footprint over the same time frame. Capturing a majority of fiber customers early on will support our future performance, as the return is traditionally much lower. In the TV market, another key strategic area for us, we've also been adding customers attracted by the breadth and quality of our offering. In mobile, leveraging the top quality of our high-speed data networks, we are continuing to successfully convert customers from prepaid to postpaid. We enjoy a long-lasting competitive advantage in customer experience and network performance surveys. We have also taken revenue-enhancing measures, such as raising the minimum prepaid top-up amounts and eliminating the eBill discount. This last move supports the fixed as well as the mobile revenue base.
In Greece, we achieved higher EBITDA, both in the quarter and in 2023 as a whole, with a solid full-year margin level of 41.6%. While a somewhat less favorable revenue mix impacted our margins, our costs remain well under control. So, we have entered 2024 in good shape. Our competitive advantages, advanced infrastructure, and RPA initiatives will enable us to extend our momentum. This should absorb the headwinds wholesale revenues and energy costs might represent. We expect our Greek operations to achieve further growth in 2024. In Romania, as we told you, we are considering all options regarding the future of this operation, including a disposal. The discussions we disclosed in late November are ongoing, and we will keep you apprised of any new developments as it occurs. We have also announced a change in executive leadership of OTE.
As you know, after 13 years as a CEO, I have decided not to solicit another mandate. We will talk more about this next quarter, but let me just state here that I couldn't be prouder of the work we have done together during this tenure. We have transformed OTE into a modern competitive telecommunications player the country and its economy deserve. Our financial KPIs are among the best among European telecoms. I'm confident that Kostas Nebis, who has been designated to take my place, will bring OTE to new highs. I know he will be. I will be leaving this organization in July of 2024 in very good hands. It is because we are convinced that our prospects are particularly bright that we have decided to maintain our investments in the future at a high level and to raise the remuneration of our shareholders.
In 2024, CapEx should remain at or close to its 2023 level, as we pursue a rollout of fiber infrastructure in particular. Free cash flow will also remain solid at EUR 470 million, and despite the small drop there, we are proud to be able to increase our remuneration to our shareholders. We will be asking the next AGM to approve a total shareholder remuneration of EUR 450 million, comprising a 23% increase in the dividend. On that note, I will ask Babis to review our performance in the fourth quarter.
Thank you, Michael. To everyone out there, hello and welcome to our call. We had a solid fourth quarter, providing a satisfactory ending to this complex year. Total group revenues in the quarter were up more than 5%, with both Greece and Romania contributing to the growth. In Greece, revenues were up precisely 5%, though the largest increases this quarter came from lower margin revenue categories. Retail service revenues were up nicely in fixed as well as in mobile. In Romania, the top line increased more than 6%, boosted by one-off revenues linked to an ICT project. The nearly 3% increase in group-adjusted EBITDA after leases, lower than the top line increase, reflects a mix of revenues in the quarter. In Greece, EBITDA was up by 1.6%. In Romania, it was over EUR 4 million, as compared to break-even in the same quarter last year.
Let's start with Greece. Revenues from retail fixed services continued along the improving trends they had shown since the beginning of the year and actually turned positive in the quarter, thanks to solid increases in broadband and particularly TV. Even considering the favorable comparison pace, underlying trends improved significantly. Once again, quality and customer recognition paid off, even at a highly complex competitive context. Broadband revenues were up over 2%, and TV was up more than 5%. We added 13,000 broadband customers in the fourth quarter, raising broadband penetration over total base to nearly 88%. We have also signed up a record 35,000 additional fiber-to-the-home subscribers during the period, bringing the total fiber-to-the-home base to 251,000. This represents an 83% increase from the year earlier level, achieved with no support from state subsidies, which have not been available for well over a year now.
We are still anticipating that some form of incentive will be offered in the coming months to further boost the market. Regardless, we are pursuing our fiber-to-the-home rollout across the country and actively marketing fiber take-up to monetize our substantial technological investments. We exceeded 1.3 million homes passed by the end of 2023, and we are shooting for another 500,000 homes in 2024. At year-end, fiber-to-the-home penetration had passed 19.5% of homes passed, a satisfactory increase in relative and absolute terms. Our focus on network quality, service availability, and customer confidence is a winning strategy. In particular, fiber is driving very high customer satisfaction scores, which itself translates into churn rates that are about half those of the traditional copper-based subscribers.
When it comes to TV, we ended 2023 with 678,000 customers, up 13,000 in the quarter and 36,000 or more than 5% during the year, driving the revenue uplift I mentioned before. We are continuing to invest in the programming of our customers' demand, particularly with regard to sports content. Last quarter, we mentioned that the blip in other fixed revenues after a steady run of quarterly increases would be temporary, and we attributed it to the upswing of the Greek elections a few months earlier. We are now pleased to report that in the last quarter of the year, other revenues bounced back as we had expected, and we are up more than 11%. We have a solid pipeline of ICT projects for public and private entities ahead of us. Wholesale revenues, we are up more than 4% in the quarter, largely from international transit.
On the other hand, higher margin domestic wholesale are and should continue to be impacted by the buildup of our competitors' own infrastructure. We had a very positive quarter in Greek mobile, with sharp acceleration in service revenues up more than 4% in the quarter despite the drop in visitors roaming. Momentum remained intense in prepaid as well as postpaid revenues, with revenues in both channels up materially. We are encouraged by the reaction of the prepaid base to our more-for-more packages and the removal of lower-value monthly recharges. In addition, our ongoing strategy to migrate customers from prepaid to postpaid continues to pay off and really highlights the tangible benefits we are getting out of our network leadership. In Q4, through conversion and customer acquisition, we added 43,000 users to our postpaid services for a total now of over 3.1 million subscribers.
The considerable appeal of our offering is visible in both our data KPIs and customer satisfaction surveys. We are also ahead of our 5G population coverage targets, and we are consistently improving the quality and reliability of our technological solutions. So all in all, we are pleased with the development of our Greek fixed and mobile operations in 2023, and we are quite confident in delivering another resilient performance in the current year. Total operating expenses, excluding depreciation and amortization, and one-offs in Greece, were up nearly 8% in the quarter. However, most of this increase in OpEx comes from direct costs, primarily interconnection and devices, with structural costs that were kept under control. We recorded a temporary increase in personnel costs in the quarter, but the underlying benefits from recent retirement programs are still there, and we expect a steady decline in costs to resume in the coming quarters.
The full-year numbers are more representative, with operating expenses, excluding depreciation and amortization and one-offs, up just over 1% despite persistent inflationary pressure. Full-year personnel expenses were down 5%, and budget provisions declined 30%. Energy costs were also down sharply, but we expect that item to bounce back in 2024 based on the forward contracts we negotiated. Adjusted EBITDA after leases increased, total EUR 337 million, and it was up 1.6%, yielding an EBITDA margin of 39.4%. In the full year, EBITDA margin was up 10 base points to a healthy 41.6%. Now, a few words about Romania. Total revenues rose 6% at our Romanian mobile operations, totaling EUR 78 million. However, this includes a EUR 5 million one-off revenue linked to the completion of an ICT project recognized in the quarter.
Revenues are still impacted by MTR cuts, mobile termination rate cuts, and the highly competitive environment in which we operate. In the full year, total TKRM revenues were down about 6%. Romania's total operating expenses, excluding depreciation, amortization, and one-offs, were down marginally in the quarter, reflecting cost discipline across the board despite higher energy costs. Similarly, full-year OpEx rose less than 1%. Finally, Telekom Romania Mobile, adjusted EBITDA after leases, was a little over EUR 4 million in this quarter and EUR 17 million in the full year. Now, we'll go rapidly over the rest of the group P&L as it's really business as usual. Financial income and expenses are continuing to come down, reflecting the drop in our outstanding debt and higher interest income on deposits. This trajectory should continue as we are not facing any refinancing deadline for another two and a half years.
As for the cash flow statement, adjusted CapEx was down 4% in the fourth quarter to reach EUR 621 million in the full year. This is right in line with the revised guidance we gave you at the end of Q3. Free cash flow after leases was EUR 104 million in the fourth quarter, and for the full year, it came up to EUR 501 million, spot-on with our guidance. In addition to our 2024 shareholder remuneration policy that Michael discussed, we have also communicated our cash flow and CapEx guidance for the full year. We expect a free cash flow in the neighborhood of sorry, we expect free cash flow in the neighborhood of EUR 470 million, roughly EUR 30 million lower than in 2023.
This difference has nothing to do with operational performance, but it is entirely due to income tax returning to a more normative level following a one-time tax credit last year. We will also continue investing in our infrastructure, mainly the additional 500,000 houses we intend to pass this year, as we mentioned before. As a result, we are expecting CapEx to be at or slightly below the 2023 level in a range between EUR 610 million-EUR 620 million. So to conclude, we're quite pleased with our performance last year and quite positive and optimistic about our outlook as we enter 2024. On that note, Michael, myself, and our other colleagues around the table are ready to respond to your questions. Operator?
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on their telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, then you may press star and two. Please use your handset when asking your question for better quality. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. The first question is from the line of Draziotis, Stamatios with Eurobank Equities. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hello there, and thank you very much for taking my questions. My first one is on the remuneration policy. Could you maybe share some further thoughts as to why you're not proceeding with full distribution? We've seen your cash returns being reduced from EUR 500 million two years ago to EUR 425 million last year and EUR 450 million in 2024. So that's about EUR 125 million lower on a cumulative basis in the last two years. And I'm just wondering because this has happened at a time when the debt has actually fallen by the same amount, so EUR 130 million. So my question is basically why you think this level of prudence is the best approach towards rewarding shareholders. So that's my first question. Secondly, on the operations, you mentioned mobile, which has had quite a strong finish.
Just wondering whether you think you can build further on that and you can continue growing service revenues in the low single digits. Maybe if you could comment on the notable reduction in prepaid subs that we saw. Sorry.
My mobile. My mobile. Sorry about that.
So yeah, because we saw a notable reduction in prepaid subs, does that have to do with this migration from prepaid to postpaid, which you talked about during your introduction? And lastly, on competitive dynamics in Greece, there have been several press reports recently referring to Nova and its shareholder mulling a potential exit or sale. What do you think might be the read-through for the market in general from a competition perspective? That is the question. Thank you so much.
Okay. Regarding your first question, which is related to the reduction of the total remuneration in the previous two years, there is no point in going back into the stories of why you reduced the total remuneration in the previous years. What is important is to see what will be happening from now on. We had explained to you that one of the reasons was the fact that we had increased the investments for fiber to the home. Now, as you see, this year, we have changed this policy. We have improved the total remuneration, and we have also improved the dividend payout by +23%. And we are very optimistic that things or situations will develop in a very positive way for the coming years.
Now, regarding your third point or your third question for Nova and the competitors, we cannot start commenting on speculation of what will happen to the market. But Mr. Draziotis and to the rest, what I can tell you is look at our history. Look at the history of this company and look at the history of our management team since 2010. Since 2010, it's 14 years, 13 years, or it will be 14 this summer that I became the head of this company. We've had many, many challenges. We had the crisis. We had the situation of the very negative customer experiences at the beginning of the decade. And we had price wars. I can go on and name the challenges we've had over the years.
We have proven repeatedly that we are quite capable and competent in managing all these challenges, and not just managing the challenges, but also maintaining our leadership, even increase the gap compared to our competitors. This has to do with the competencies that this team has and the fact that we are very clear with our strategy and the fact that customer is our key priority in everything we do. So whoever comes or whatever, regardless of what will happen in terms of the competitive environment, we are very well equipped, and the company will be very well equipped in the future to be able to face any competitive developments in the market. I gather you know the Greek situation quite well. This year, 2023, started very, very negative in terms of what was happening in the market with a major price war by a competitor.
As you see based on our results, we have managed to overcome this and get over it in a very positive way, having achieved these results. So what else can I say? The third point regarding your question on the prepaid, our Chief Commercial, Mr. Gabrielides, can respond to you.
Yeah. The numbers you see in the prepaids, as you mentioned, at least half of the subscriber reduction is migration from prepaid to postpaid. And this is actually more for more growth for us. It's not something negative. The rest of it is a cleanup of the base. By the end of this year, it was inactive, seems, so not contributing to the overall revenue, which is, of course, positive. And there is a very nice trend coming up during Q4, which we expect to follow in the upcoming quarters as well.
That's great. Thank you. Could I just follow up on the question regarding shareholder remuneration? Let me rephrase the question. That's twofold, actually. I mean, you had talked in the past about, at some point, distributing surpluses that had not been distributed in past years. I'm not sure if I'm framing it the best way, but this is the rationale, effectively. So is this something that is close to materializing maybe next year? Effectively, the question, effectively, is whether with this low leverage, it makes sense to expect, at some point in the coming years, net debt to actually increase after many years of decline? Thank you.
Okay. We cannot respond to any of these two questions, whether we'll increase the net debt or whether we will distribute the surpluses. You're referring to probably a comment. I'm not sure when we stated this, but probably it was at the beginning of when we restarted distributing dividends many, many years ago. Anyway, that was more than five years ago, probably, that was said. But I'm not sure how it was said. I don't doubt it since you say it. But anyway, regarding the future, I cannot respond. We cannot respond whether we will distribute surpluses or we'll increase net debt. Increase net debt, I find it less probable.
Okay. That's great. Thank you.
You're welcome.
The next question is from the line of Maurice Patrick with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, and thank you for the call, presentation, and taking the questions. Just a few reasonably small ones from my side, please. The first question on the fiber penetration, you're running at about, I think it was 19.5% penetration of the rollout. If I'm not wrong on the call, just now you talked about government subsidies, meaning that that rate should improve in the future quarters. Maybe you can give some more detail in terms of these sort of subsidies and how that could drive growth. And just linked to that, you mentioned on a previous call that you were running at around 50% penetration for some of the older cohorts. I think it was more than three years.
It'd be great to get an update just in terms of what sort of that cohort's penetration is looking like and so we can get a view in terms of where we're going for the next few years. So that's a question on the fiber side. And then if I could just be very boring and ask about cash tax. In the press release, there was talk about higher cash tax in 2024 was one of the reasons and drivers for the free cash flow for the year being lower. It'd just be great to get a sense from your side in terms of what's the magnitude of that extra headwind and maybe how should we think about cash tax reverting in 2025 would be helpful. Thank you.
Okay. I will respond to the subsidies coming from the state. We're expecting, okay. The fiber to a building readiness has been launched at the same time. Now we're expecting also the coupon, the gigabit voucher, which is going to be a benefit for the customer to upgrade to fiber to the home. Currently, it's a consultation that's being taken place between the government and the companies. And we will see it being launched very soon. And the government is going to make some amendments into the policy of how a building will be eligible for the coupon, for the gigabit readiness, which this is going to make it much easier in order to get the building application. It has to do with bureaucracy.
So these two, let's say, the improvement of the policy for accessing the building along with the launch of the gigabit voucher, which is a benefit on the monthly access for the customers, this definitely will give a boost to the fiber to the home connections. Panayiotis Gabrielides, you want to respond to the?
Regarding the penetration rate?
Yes.
Yes. I remember we mentioned in a previous call that the initial rollout had penetration rates of up to 50%. As we speak, this has increased to close to 75%. But what is more important is that the penetration rate of the latest rollouts of one or two years is close to 35% or 40%. This is the most important part, I would say. So yes, we have an increasing penetration steadily.
The third question for the next week.
Okay. So regarding the gas tax, yes, as you mentioned, there is and as we mentioned, actually, in the press release, there is a normalization of the tax outflow in 2024 after a couple of years of benefiting from the tax breaks that we achieved. So this delta between 2024 and 2023 is about EUR 50 million. And it mostly comes from this normalization. So that's why we said that hadn't we had this normalization impact, then the operating free cash flow would have grown, actually. And that's what we mentioned. And obviously, this will be evident in the next year, in 2025, when this effect will have been normalized.
Okay. Great. So in conclusion, we should normally for 2025 assume that sort of P&L rate goes to cash flow. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Memisoglu, Osman with Ambrosia Capital. Please go ahead.
Hello. Many thanks for your time and the presentation. A couple on my side, please. Coming back to the revenues, you've had quite a swing to the positive side in Q4. In mobile, 4%. In fixed, you moved to positive after quite a while. So net 5%, are there any one-offs here that if you can give us some color? I would imagine if no one-offs, the first half at least, should we see a similar trend in 2024? That's the first one. Then in the free cash flow, I'm assuming given the focus on personal costs, there is a VES. I'm guessing it's planned as well. I was wondering if it would be similar amounts to the previous couple of years that's included in the FCF guidance. And then related to that, you've increased the share of remuneration to FCF to 95%.
Is that something now we can look forward to, that that should stay at this level in the next few years? And final one related to FCF, obviously, CapEx. After 2024, how does it trend? Does it start to come down? Just trying to understand the evolution of CapEx. Thank you.
Thank you for the questions. Let me take the first one about the possible one-offs in revenues. I think also from the press release and speech, we alluded that the growth on mobile is mostly organic, so it's coming from the activities that we are taking. In fixed, as you may recall, in Q4 of 2022, we had some provisions for the public projects. If these were taken into account, then still it would be a little bit positive. Yet it's a one-off of about EUR 3 million-EUR 4 million there. And the other one, which we also said in the other revenues, in the ICT, last quarter, quarter three, we were discussing in this forum that we had a slowdown in ICT revenues because of the delay of acceptance of projects. Now this came back in Q4 partially. It will also come back in Q1 of 2024.
And therefore, this one also has a one-off effect. So all in all, the revenue generation is quite organic. And even in fixed, with this correction, still there is a sizable improvement versus the rate of the previous quarters. So that's for the thing. And also before we give the floor for the free cash flow guidance and the remuneration, the CapEx for 2023 and 2024, as we said, they are almost equal because we intensively continue the CapEx rollout for fiber to the home and the rest. And also in 2025, the projection is that it would be in this neighborhood of EUR 600 million. Yet the exact number, of course, will be defined later on this year when we're preparing our plans for 2025. 95%.
I'm not sure of the question.
Okay. That's for the free cash flow guidance. On the remuneration, the 95% is basically what we have now and how we look at the remuneration from this point of view in this year. Obviously, this is where we'll also start from the years after in terms of.
This is the aim for next year for the coming years.
Yeah.
The base. Yeah.
Thank you. And the VES, it's going to be similar levels?
Sorry. Can you please repeat because the line was not clear?
Sure. So for VES program, I'm guessing given the focus on personal expenses, the free cash flow guidance includes a VES program, right? Is that a similar level to previous years?
Yeah. Well, this efficiency program runs across the year, so it's something that will also be present this year. However, the amount and the exact figures will be decided after it's done because every year, it's applicable to a lower population. And it is driven also by the choice of the people because it's voluntary.
The amounts will be lower?
Yeah. The amounts would be lower, and it will be definitely decided in the coming quarters.
Understood. If I can just follow up on the previous question, the tax delta was 50, right?
50. Yes.
Okay. Thank you very much.
The next question is from the line of Baheti, Ankur with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hello. Hi, team. My question is regarding the fixed service revenues. In the last couple of quarters, it has been declining, but it has now turned positive. Partially, you say it is due to comps easing. Going ahead in 2024, first few quarters of 2024, how do you see it evolving? Do you see the positive trend to continue? And then my second question is regarding the government broadband vouchers. Has a similar thing been announced for 2024? If yes, what's the timeline and quantum of this?
Sorry. For the second question, did you ask if the vouchers will continue in 2024?
Right.
Yeah. I said earlier that, yeah, the fiber to the building readiness, which is an amount of EUR 110 million, has been launched by the government. And it was launched a couple of months ago. What we're expecting now is a relaxation or an improvement on the application procedure in order to make it much easier for the buildings to apply for the connection. And we're expecting also, on top of this, another approximately EUR 80 million, which will be the gigabit voucher for, it's a subsidy for the connection of the individual customer. So altogether, the whole amount, which will be state aid or from the RRF funds or whatever, will be at EUR 180 million. Does this answer your question?
Yeah. Right. Then my first question was regarding the fixed service revenues in Greece. So it has turned positive this quarter. Do you see the trend to remain as it is for the next couple of quarters?
Okay. We're not seeing improvement even starting the year, but Panayiotis Gabrielides will give you more.
Yes. As we said before, last year, we saw some quarters in a row with declining revenues there because, remember, we had this initiative to increase the value of what our base is getting with the free upgrades of the fiber speeds. So this effect is over. We saw that in Q4. We have a turnaround. We had these losses from mobile telephony, but we have a significant growth from broadband and from fiber to the home. So this nice growth we see, together with the ICT projects, this nice growth we see in Q4, we are expecting for the following quarters as well.
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Ierodiaconou, Georgios with Citi. Please go ahead.
Thank you for taking my questions, and good afternoon. Maybe a couple of follow-ups. The first one on the point you just made around revenue outlook. My understanding is you took certain actions, including an e-billing adjustment in the fourth quarter. So I'm curious if we've seen already most of the benefit in the fourth quarter or whether that should have a bigger effect as we go into the start of 2024. My second question is around the personnel expenses. You mentioned some one-offs in the fourth quarter. Just curious about the size of this one-off just to understand what the organic performance we should anticipate in the coming quarters. Then the final question is around the CapEx guidance.
If you could give us a bit of an update on the programming costs that you have and any renewals and whether that is already baked into the guidance you are providing or whether that could risk it being slightly higher or lower just to get an idea of what's included in the CapEx guidance there? Thank you.
Thank you, Georgios, for the question. So on the revenue outlook, I think we talked about that today. What we see in Q4 partially is fueled also by the e-billing adjustment that went through in the last weeks of 2023. For 2024, it plays a role. Actually, that's why our tone of optimism for the service revenue is there because of this element. But that's not the only one. The other one is the good performance also on the customer base and the more and more programs, both in postpaid and prepaid, they work towards this direction. Personnel expenses, yes, there were some, I would say, settlements and wrap-ups at quarter four for various programs for the bonus and some inflationary adjustments to the employees.
And that one is going to it. It does not alter the whole picture of the year because it was a timing issue to happen in Q4. So the personnel reduction we see for the whole year in 2023 versus 2022. Fourth quarter. And also some of it is carried over into 2024, which coupled with the continuing efficiency from the digitalization and the voluntary retirement schemes will make further reduction visible in the coming quarters. On the CapEx guidance, the numbers we have mentioned are excluding spectrum, as always. So they are, let's say, the adjusted CapEx. Spectrum is coming in 2027 mainly with renewals and a small portion in 2025, but the main part is for 2027. Did I miss anything on your questions, or?
On the CapEx side, I was also curious about the Champions League renewal and the effect that that could have, whether all the programming expenses have been assumed to continue or whether there could be some reduction in the event that you don't renew the Champions League?
Okay. We're expecting some reduction, but now we're in the process. Apparently, the organizers have decided to relaunch the tender, and I think it's the week of the decision. So we're expecting their decision.
Okay. Very clear. Thank you.
You're welcome.
The next question is from the line of Patrick, Maurice with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, guys. Sorry just to come back for one question, and thanks again for doing the call today. Just a question on the mobile data growth and densification. I noticed in the presentation, I think you talked about having I think it was 32% growth in the mobile data traffic in Greece, so continuing to grow. But are you seeing much site densification, or are you doing much site densification in the market in terms of the need to roll out more radio sites for capacity? Or actually, have you got plenty of spectrum and plenty of 5G so there's no need? I'm curious as to how much CapEx is being spent on mobile network densification. Thank you.
I'm not sure if I understand one of the words that you're using, and probably this is a key word to your question.
Densification.
Densification.
Densification.
Yep. Exactly.
We'll have next. Yeah. I mean.
What we see here is the result of the work of the previous years, actually, that allow us to accommodate an ever-continuing increase in the average usage in gigabytes. And I can say that in Q4, we reached the peak of all Q4s ever. We have to invest more this year because the preparatory work has been happening throughout the year. So we don't wait for the traffic to come. We anticipate the traffic to come. And therefore, in the CapEx, there is no any needed spike in spending, which is needed in order to cover the expected traffic of the next year. Note that because of the national roaming, oh, sorry. Because of the visitors roaming, our network is designed to accommodate even more higher peak of traffic in the summer. So what we experienced in Q4, it's less than in summer.
So we don't foresee any CapEx needs particularly because of the traffic increase. It's already been designed. The densification you mentioned has been happening on a continuous basis.
Yeah. The CAPEX, which is allocated on an annual basis for the maintenance and improvement of the network, it takes into consideration any increased capacity. So you should not expect any surprises.
That's very helpful. Thank you for the cut-out.
The next question is a follow-up question with Memisoglu, Osman , Ambrosia Capital. Please go ahead.
I just wanted to get your thoughts. If you could give us any color on the pay-TV performance after some flat performances, you've shown two very solid quarters, I was just wondering what are the drivers there. Thank you.
Okay. The TV performance, as you saw it, there was improvement. We expected an improvement. The drivers for this are the sports rights, particularly the football rights, and the overall content that we have besides sports, plus the user interface and the overall customer experience that we give to our customers. So we expect the positive trends to continue. At the same time, the government is going to pass a law very soon against piracy, which is going to be another driver in helping, let's say, or in boosting TV connections because piracy of pay-TV business increase is probably amongst the highest in Europe. There's an estimation of approximately more than 500,000 pirate customers who use pirate boxes.
Understood. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further audio questions at this time. I will now pass the floor over to management for any webcast participant written questions. Thank you.
Okay. Operator, can we see on the screen here the written questions that we have from yeah. Okay. Okay. Mr. Michailoglou is asking for guidance on EBITDA margin in Romania. And that's one question. The second question is fiber-to-home infrastructure is growing with increasing utilization of the TV subscribers are also growing. Yet the fixed line revenues are not growing. What we respond to this question. So Babis, you can say a few things about Romania.
Yeah. For Romania, obviously, the current margin is not. It reflects actually the stabilization that has been happening after the spin-off from the fixed business in the end of 2021. This is where we start from. Hopefully, with the activities we are taking, excluding, of course, any strategic activities, we expect this to improve in the coming quarters.
Okay. Let me add something to Romanian developments if we, let's say, upon the sale or after, if we manage to finalize the sale of the Romanian operation, then this means that we will stop any bleeding that we have from the Greek cash flow towards the Romanian business. At the same time, following the sale, the following year of the sale, we will have a tax break of more than EUR 100 million if that makes any sense to you.
We continue.
Next question. That is in Greek. Mr. Rizopoulos asks , "We want to see a deal with the whole with the possibility of the FTTHs. Will you continue the share buyback program and the cancellation?" Yes. We announced that we will continue this share buyback program and the cancellation. This year, we distribute 95% of the free cash flow, and 67% is dividend, 33% is, if I remember the proportions correctly, 33% share buyback. This will continue. This will start this Monday coming. Okay? Next question is by Mrs. [Dimakou]. "Considering there is a large pool of ICT projects in Greece, are you taking any steps to increase the revenue from taking part in these projects, development of personnel, or even an acquisition if needed?" Acquiring an ICT company, we don't see it.
As we've said as we've described in the past, we have a very competent team, and we have more than 200 people dealing with the ICT projects internally. We are quite well-positioned in the ICT in this market. We are amongst the leaders in ICT revenues, and we are probably one of the most trusted partners not only for the public sector but also for the private sector for ICT projects. So we are quite optimistic for the future of this. Okay. This one is again from Mrs. [Dimakou] again. "Relating to the first question, have you considered other revenue sources in case the over-the-ground fiber-to-home deployed, it will reduce the costs, subsequently the prices, the revenues from both sales?" Okay. As I said earlier regarding competition, we have had to face over the during the last 13, 14 years, we had to face competitors with different actions.
So we had quite challenging times. And then history has proven we have managed quite well. And we have also launched services in adjacent markets, which are partially offsetting any loss in core revenue. So we are well-prepared for the future, and the future does not intimidate us. We respect our competitors and the competitors' moves, but we are very, very well-equipped in terms of resources and know-how to manage any situation. Next question by Mrs. [Ouzenbrokova]. "Daphne, thank you for the presentation. Could you please quantify the energy headwind you expect in 2024 and soon did reverse in 2025?
Yes. That one is about the energy. I think just to clarify here that there's no any particular headwind in 2024, which we would expect it. What really happened is that the price we had in 2023, they were negotiating and were validating them in 2021 before the crisis. So they were lower. But obviously, this contract expired at the end of last year. And therefore, in 2024, we come back to the, let's say, to the prices that are prevailing around the market. Now, the delta is about EUR 30 million, but as we guided in the previous call, this one will be covered by the other operational savings. In 2025, this is a question also about 2025.
Obviously, any hit will be depending on the price since also in 2025, we are now following more or less the terms of the market, set aside some specific activities we are taking for more longer-term agreements that may secure lower prices.
Thank you, Babis. Okay. Next question is in Greek. I'll try to give a translation here to interpret it, okay, by Mrs. Karava. Okay. Regarding the vouchers, there's a question regarding the vouchers and how much how the vouchers will boost the connections for 2024. Okay. We discussed when I described how the vouchers and what would be the subsidy coming from the vouchers this year. Keep in mind that most of the year last year, most of half year more than half year would not have any vouchers, and we managed to have this performance. So definitely, the vouchers and building readiness and the voucher to the customer will boost connections. Now, regarding there's another question of how we are going to respond to any price moves of our competitors.
What I can say to you is that we are looking at our own, let's say, strategy and marketing tactics. And as the leaders please don't move the panel because I need to see the questions, okay? As the leaders in this market, we have our own short-term and long-term pricing strategies, and we don't, we observe what the competitors are doing, but we don't copy what the competitors are doing. Regarding any ad hoc dividend distribution or remuneration because of, if we manage to sell Romania, this is something that we will decide if this happens when this happens. And regarding the fourth question for the inflationary increases that were not allowed by the government or by the regulator, we don't expect any changes on this front. Okay.
What I can tell you, however, is that as we get when we change the contracts of our customers, in the new customers, we have a provision for this. And the last question regarding the net profits, okay, we discussed about EBITDA and the projections of the free cash flow. So next question no, no. You jumped. Operator?
No. We are.
Yeah. Wait. Oh, we've answered the rest. We don't have any. I think we have responded to all the written questions.
Thank you, Mr. Tsamaz. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to management for any closing comments. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you. We thank you for your attention. Questions are interesting, OTE. 2024 should be another exciting year, and we are looking forward to delivering on our commitments. We're also looking forward to our next meeting and to updating you on our progress in the first months of the year. Thank you very much again, and have a nice day. Thank you, Operator.
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone.