Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I'm Constantino, your call's call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Motor Oil conference call and live webcast to present and discuss the nine-month 2025 financial results. All participants will be listening only, and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session. Should you need any assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on your telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Petros Zanetakis, Deputy Chief Executive Officer, Mr. George Tzedafilou, General Manager of Strategy, and Ms. Mary Psylaki, Investor Relations Officer. Mr. Zanetakis, you may now proceed.
Good evening, good morning, good afternoon, wherever you are. From a dark Athens, because, you know, with a one-hour change, things are getting darker sooner. Let's start with the nine-month results. What I would like to start with this time is that it's really the call after the crude unit is back into full operation and has been in full operation for over, you know, two months now. We are pleased, very pleased, I would say, for the situation in which we are currently in. This is a milestone we are truly proud of. We are deeply grateful to our teams for their outstanding efforts over the past year. It made this possible. Our colleagues at the refinery, the insurance companies, the insurance division, production and sales coordination departments, and of course, the whole of our leadership team that guided this process.
Despite the challenges of recent quarters, we delivered on our commitments. We're, of course, supported by favorable market conditions, and we achieved exceptional performance in this third quarter. Key drivers included the return to full production capacity in August, as I just said, strong refining margins during the period, and improved results across all business segments despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, higher energy and EUA costs, and a weaker dollar. Nine-month 2025 numbers, as you can see them on slide five, revenues dropped by about 10% to EUR 8.5 billion because of restricted capacity in the refining business until August and lower prices of oil and refined products. We'll comment on this later. In reality, it's a very satisfactory performance considering the events that we experienced. Adjusted EBITDA, excluding the impact from the inventory valuation at EUR 843 million, up 3% year on year.
We are comparing a year with, I would say, you know, almost seven and a half to eight months in a partly operating condition compared to a year of 2024 where the nine months were fully operative. Adjusted net income, excluding again inventories and last year's net solidarity tax. I'll remind you this was paid, not paid, this was charged on the accounts in September 2024. Therefore, adjusted income increased by 11%, climbing to EUR 512 million. Net debt increased to EUR 189 million from EUR 173 million at the end of last year, but it has started gradually normalizing from August onwards, I would say, and compared to June when it was at EUR 196 million, so just under EUR 2 billion. Moving to slide six, performance by segment. Refining adjusted EBITDA EUR 633 million for the nine months, up from EUR 619 million a year ago.
An impressive Q3 performance driven by higher industry margins and the return of our production to full capacity. Fuels marketing, EBITDA at EUR 110 million, up from EUR 97 million a year ago. Solid growth also recorded in Q3. Power and gas, EBITDA at EUR 110 million, up from EUR 97 million, with solid growth also recorded in Q3. Power and gas, EBITDA EUR 75 million, lower year on year due to weaker half-one performance but showing signs of recovery in Q3. Other segments, the way we presented here, but soon this will be called the circular economy segment as of the 1st of January 2026 when it will be reported separately, and therefore it will be much easier for you to understand it, look at it, and see how it develops. This, including our recently acquired waste management company Elector, posted EBITDA of EUR 35 million, reflecting therefore the growing contribution of our circular economy business.
Moving to slide eight. What do we see here? We see the different sort of metrics and the industry indicators. Refining Brent averaged $69 per barrel in Q3, barely unchanged but significantly lower than last year. Volatility was significant during the quarter, with Brent price ranging from $65-$74 per barrel amid geopolitical concerns, demand supply mismatch, and trade risks. The dollar continued to depreciate at an average of EUR 1.17 in Q3 from EUR 1.13 in Q2 and EUR 1.10 a year ago. The cracks moving upwards in Q3 amid seasonally tailwinds and continued supply disruptions. Gasoline jumped to 16.5, jet to 20.1, and diesel to 25.1. If we look at the numbers currently, they are even stronger. I mean, the numbers of the 14th of November, so the very recent ones, gasoline is at 23.7, ULSD is at 40, and jet is at just 34.
Clearly, strength in this universe. The impressive growth of diesel cracks, 60% year on year and 48% Q on Q, was a result of disruptions to Russian distillate diesel production, a ban on diesel exports after the attacks on its refineries, and demand, of course, and refinery outages and closures. The high sulfur fuel oil crack averaged minus 6.4 in Q3, slightly below the minus 4.3 in Q2, likely due to increasing supply of heavy crude oil in the market. Compared to a year ago, when it was at minus 11 per barrel, it remains very attractive, driven by ample conversion capacity and a still relatively light and sweet global crude slate. Let me have a look at it. No, it is hovering at around the same sort of numbers. Crude spreads remained stubbornly narrow during Q3.
BAS medium discount to Brent narrowed to $1.3 per barrel from $2.2 in Q2 and $3 a year ago. Moving to slide nine, we see the fuel marketing in the domestic consumption in Greece. Civil market grew by 3.3% in the nine-month period, marginally in the third quarter, while the bunkering market was even stronger with 5.3% in Q3 and 2.8% in the nine months. Automotive fuels performed very well. Gasoline consumption rising by 1.8% year on year and auto diesel by 0.2% in Q3. Shipping and aviation demonstrated stronger growth rates with the jet at 6.7% and bunker fuel and diesel at 4.5%, of course, supported by Greece's strong tourism activity. Moving to the next slide, number 10, power and gas. Gas price continued the downward trend in Q3, TTF averaging EUR 33 per megawatt hour from EUR 36 in Q2 and same period last year.
For Q3, TTF was slightly weaker in price and much calmer in volatility compared to Q2 due to a combination of stronger LNG supply, better storage progress, and weaker incremental demand growth. At the end of September 2025, total gas storage in Europe stood at 82%, which is 6% below the last five-year average and 11% lower than at the end of September 2024. EUAs modestly rose in Q3, standing at an average of $73 per metric ton from $70 in Q2 and $68 a year ago, underpinned by firmer industrial activity and tighter auction supply. The Greek wholesale market, electricity market, averaged EUR 89 per megawatt hour in Q3, slightly high Q on Q but below by 30% of the same period last year due to lower gas prices and increased renewables penetration.
Going to slide 13 and looking at the different segments, the refining segment performance for the third quarter and the nine months, adjusted EBITDA stood at EUR 296 million in Q3 and EUR 633 million in the nine months of 2025. A rebound in industry refining margins during Q3, the restart of the restored unit in August, and of course, the continued insurance compensation for business interruption led to a doubling of the third quarter EBITDA compared to last year. Our nine-month numbers include insurance compensation of EUR 211 million for business interruption. Keep in mind that there is another EUR 40 million that was included in the Q4 of 2024 and EUR 34 million for property damage, and there was EUR 4 million included in fourth quarter 2024. CAPEX stood at EUR 163 million from EUR 128 million a year ago, driven solely by additional spending on the reconstruction distillation units.
Costs, of course, that, as we just said, are reimbursed by the insurance companies. Slide 14, which is a slide I like seeing how it evolved in the past year because it really shows you the processed volume and, of course, the crude mix, but the processed volume is something that we paid particular great attention over this period when we had the issues with the unit. Looking at the total processed volume, it fell by 8% in the nine months to 8.8, increased by 6% in Q3 as a result of the start of the CDU, and crude accounted for 47% of the total from a historical average of 70-75%, while other feedstock grew to 53%, as you can see, as percent of the total processed unit. With the restart of the second CDU in August, the split got closer to historical averages at 61-39%.
I would like to remind you here that if we look at this nine months 2025 to nine months 2024 total processed volume of 8.850 compared to 9.631 million metric tons, this is 91% of the total, which is a number even if you exclude September, a little bit of August, which is particularly high. Just to remind you how the whole sort of process moved in Q4 2024, it stood at 70%, and for the first half, it grew at 85%, and including the third quarter, it finally grew at 91%. Crude utilization averaged 109,000 barrels in the nine months and 159,000 in Q3. Clearly, it shows the way upward to reach the new distillation capacity as we speak. The restoration of the CDU increased the crude processing capacity to 220,000 barrels per day from roughly 200,000 barrels per day previously.
That's a number with which, for the time being, we feel quite confident, and it is the current operating level of the refinery. The crude mix is, again, you can see 74% Iraqi, 21% Libyan, and quite an increased number of 5% of Kazakh CPC, as this was sort of the mode of operation in the third quarter. Slide 15, we see the production and the yields per products. Production obviously declined but increased by 5% in Q3 compared to the previous one. Product yields for gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil were similar to last year, which is quite impressive because all these products have been quite profitable for us. Jet fuel was slightly lower, and asphalt yield increased considerably, I would say, both trends driven by operating conditions of the refinery but also from feedstock availability and market sales opportunities. Slide 16, sales per market increased by 14%.
Again, the number of 9.8 compared to 10 stands at 97%, which, again, I would say is very satisfactory considering the conditions under which we operated. The domestic market grew strongly. You can see that. Exports fell, and shipping and aviation were flat. Priority clearly was given to the domestic market during the previous quarters due to the refinery incident. This shift is also reflected in the pie chart, which you can see on the top right, where Greece accounted for 45% of revenues, 32% for civil, and another 13% for shipping and aviation compared to an average of 30% in previous years. This will gradually normalize to what was happening in the past, of course, subject to demand. Now, we reach slide 17, where we see the margins.
The benchmark refining margin rose from $52 per metric ton in Q3, driven by the restart of the CDU unit, while the remained slightly below last year in the nine-month period to 9.8. The rose from 52 metric tons in Q3 to 68 in Q2, to 104 in Q3 this year, driven by the strong product cracks. For the nine-month period, we continued to outperform the benchmark with a margin of 81 versus 77 of the benchmark. During Q3, our margin was slightly below the benchmark, an exception, I would say. I can't remember when such an exception happened before, but it's primarily due to the crude used in the benchmark, which proved more profitable during this quarter.
We just want to remind you that the S&P Global calculates its benchmark using Azeri crude as the sole crude input, a choice that would be restrictive to our product slate, and output would result in a lower overall margin for our business. This variance is not expected to persist as the refinery is now operating at full capacity with all crude units ramped up, so we will increase the overall crude throughput. Slide 18, fuels marketing segment. Sales volumes were broadly unchanged during the period under review. Fuel demand remained solid during this quarter, and our marketing business gained market share. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 9% in Q3 and 30% in the nine-month period, supported by increased penetration of high-margin fuels, as well as the lift of the margin cap from July 1. Slide 19, power and gas.
EBITDA reached EUR 33 million from EUR 75 million and EUR 75 million in the nine-month period, of which Moore generated EUR 73 million and energy EUR 2 million. Performance was clearly improved for both businesses during this quarter. Wind conditions improved for Moore as reflected by its load factor of 20.5% from 18.1% a year ago. Our operating capacity stood at 847 MW at the end of September, up from 839 MW at the end of June following the transfer of parks from Elector to Moore. Group P&L on slide 21. Group EBITDA rose from EUR 130 million in Q3 to EUR 376 million, driven by increased production capacity and a favorable refining environment. For the nine-month period, we nearly recovered the ground lost in the first half, reporting EUR 764 million, only marginally below our last year level.
Note here that nine-month numbers included the EUR 211 million insurance compensation for business interruption and EUR 34 million for property damage on top of the EUR 40 million and EUR 4 million, respectively, included in Q4 of last year. Thus, the total amount approved by our insurance companies and included in the last four quarters numbers is EUR 289 million. In Q4, we will recognize the final installment of insurance compensation, which is expected, obviously, to be smaller than in previous quarters. We anticipate a lower amount for business interruption and a higher amount for property damage as the final invoices of all the purchases have come, have arrived. At this stage, we cannot disclose the exact figure as the process with insurance companies is still being finalized.
Returning to nine-month results, below the EBITDA line, we note a significant increase in associates' contribution driven by strong performance for our participations in the thermal plants of Korinthos Power, Shell MOI Aviation, and to a large extent by our stake in Ellactor. The latter reported a capital gain from the sale of its concession business at the end of September, which contributed positively to the results. It is worth noting that Ellactor has already announced an interim dividend to be paid at the year-end, and based on our 22% participation, we will collect EUR 39 million, which will clearly be positive for the cash flow of the company. Bottom line, we delivered a strong performance with net income of EUR 451 million or EUR 512 million at an adjusted basis, an increase of 11% year-on-year. Slide 22, and I am coming to the end, group balance sheet and cash flow.
Cash flow performance also improved with nine months operating cash at EUR 492 million and free cash flow of EUR 30 million. This reflects solid free cash flow of EUR 194 million in the third quarter, driven by the strong EBITDA and the positive working capital despite increased investments of CAPEX of EUR 201 million. The higher CAPEX relates to spending on our renewables business for Unagi-related solar projects in line with previous guidance. The net debt increased from EUR 173 million at the end of 2024 to EUR 189 million, but I clearly told you that it is becoming gradually normalized. To a large extent, this was due to the EUR 255 million payment in February of the extraordinary tax. The decline that we saw happen in Q3 will continue in Q4 with the normalization of the sort of working capital cycle.
On slide 25, we have the CAPEX, EUR 159 million for the company and EUR 404 million for the group, 40% involved refining, 10% fuels marketing, 47% power and gas, and 3% of the remaining activities. We keep our guidance unchanged for CAPEX of EUR 500 million on the group, slightly increased our company guidance from EUR 190 million to EUR 200 million to account for the continued investments in the refinery. This is just to be accurate. Debt maturity profile, group bank debt remained unchanged at EUR 275 million, while cash position slightly increased to EUR 1.1 billion. And our weighted average cost of debt remained very competitive, standing at 3.15% at the end of September from 3.63% at the end of 2024. Outlook, refining, fourth quarter performance is expected to surpass the third quarter, supported by full utilization of the capacity of the refinery, healthy product demand, exceptionally robust margins for both the industry and our business.
These margins are driven by ongoing supply disruptions, which intensified following the latest sanctions on Russian companies. Marketing, the market conditions remain healthy. We expect another good quarter, also taking into account seasonal factors and keeping in mind that the tourist season in Greece seems to never end. You will experience this if you try and drive and walk in the center of Athens. Renewables, we are making steady progress on the development of our Unagi project, along with several smaller initiatives currently under construction. Notably, our 22.5 megawatts wind farm in Central Greece is on track for completion by the end of this year. Our battery storage projects, totaling 72 MW across three locations in Greece, are also expected to be finalized by year-end 2025.
The utility company, the JV with Yecterna, we progress with the required approvals by the relevant authorities, and we will proceed with an extraordinary general meeting to request approval by our shareholders. We reiterate our target for completion of the transaction by early 2026. I would like to leave the floor and give some time to George Triantafyllou by giving you a more general remark on the global energy sector that the energy trilemma remains unchanged. What has shifted is the prioritization of its three challenges. Energy security now comes first, followed by affordability and then sustainability, a clear reflection of the geopolitical and economic landscape. At Motor Oil, we designed the balanced transformation plan in 2018, ensuring that our strategy addressed all three dimensions of the trilemma.
This plan marked the start of our journey from a pure refining and marketing group to a leading energy company with a diversified portfolio, safeguarding the group's longevity and profitability while maintaining flexibility to adapt to changing conditions. Looking at global developments, we are confident that this balanced approach was the right choice. It allows us to progress steadily with our initial plan, making targeted adjustments at every step to capture opportunities and mitigate risks. I'm sure George will be telling you much more on this front, so I'll rest my case. Give the floor to George and ask you, please, to keep your questions to the end for both of us. Thank you.
Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for Motor Oil Group's annual strategy and outlook update.
Over the last few years, Motor Oil has evolved from a leading Mediterranean downstream company into a diversified regional energy group operating across the full energy spectrum from molecules to electrons. Today, Motor Oil is growing complementary businesses in fuels, power, and the circular economy. Each pillar contributes differently to our balance of resilience and growth, positioning the group to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns and long-term shareholder value. The first slide captures how Motor Oil is positioned at the intersection of the three most attractive trends in the energy sector: the resilience of refining and fuels, the electrification of energy systems, and the circular use of resources. On the molecule side, our refining and fuels platform gives us exposure to a structurally tight market.
We operate one of the most complex refineries in the Mediterranean, processing more than 200,000 barrels per day, supported by a logistics and retail network of over 1,500 stations across five countries. On the electron side, our presence in power generation and retail gives us direct participation in electrification, the fastest-growing energy value chain. Through our holdings in Moore and the recently announced Energy Heron JV, we're positioned to capture opportunities as a pure-play res operator and an integrated electric utility with dispatchable generation. Finally, through our circular economy platform, we're turning waste into value, managing over 1 million tons of materials annually. This platform taps into the growing environmental and regulatory focus on resource efficiency, the preservation of the water cycle, as well as opportunities for the development of low-carbon power, fuels, and lubricants.
Together, these businesses give Motor Oil exposure to the most compelling long-term themes in energy, energy security, electrifications, and sustainability, while maintaining the earning strength and cash generation that underpin our returns. The next slide captures the essence of our growth story. Three years ago, we communicated our strategy for 2030 and growth aspirations for our traditional and new businesses. In this short period of time, we came a long way and managed to build leadership positions across our three platforms of growth. Now, we have moved from building to scaling. Each of these platforms now unilaterally stands on strong operational and strategic foundations, comprising businesses that are market leaders in their sectors with a clear organic growth path to execute upon. In refining and fuels, we have enhanced our crude processing capacity, efficiency, and flexibility, securing our position as a regional benchmark in efficiency and returns.
In electrification, we have successfully established Moore as a renewables platform and progressed towards completing the Energy Heron joint venture, giving us scale, integration, and visibility across the power value chain. In the circular economy, we have created Greece's leading platform in waste management and resource recovery with a proven track record of growth and profitability. Having achieved leadership across these three areas, we now have a clear and visible path to grow meaningfully and organically through 2030. The growth is driven by visible projects that are already in execution or in advanced preparation, with capital allocation aligned to deliver sustained returns with an increasing share of non-fuel earnings. In short, the building phase is complete. We are now firmly in the organic growth phase of our multi-energy strategy. Over to the next slide. Refining remains our core strength and a major competitive advantage.
The European refining system has been underinvested for years. Over the past five years, more than 12 refineries have been retired or converted, removing over 1 million barrels per day of capacity. This trend has been met by continued growth of oil and fuels demand, leading to a structural tightness in the market that is supportive of refining margins. Our continued investments in Corinth have allowed us to capture this market opportunity and gave us a long-term sustainable advantage. Over the past few years, we have grown our processing capacity, improved our efficiency and resilience, and upscaled our ability to produce diversified and higher value-add products. Therefore, we are in an excellent position to capture market opportunities for the years to come.
Our performance shows, despite temporary headwinds in 2024 due to the refinery incident that is now behind us, adjusted refining margins consistently outperform Mediterranean benchmarks, while our crude processing capacity has increased by nearly 20%. Going forward, we continuously and rigorously assess opportunities to grow our traditional business while we decarbonize our products and processes in a prudent and value-accretive way. As an example of our ability to maintain agile and to remain agile and responsive to market conditions is our decision to continue developing the Deodiga Gas FSRU, a project that is in mature stages of development and which stands to benefit from the surge in demand for overseas LNG in the wider Eastern European region. In short, we have entered what we call the new golden age of refining with the right assets, the right logistics network, and a clear focus on operating excellence.
Moving to the following slide, the Greek power market is at a clear inflection point. Demand for electricity is expected to grow meaningfully over the rest of the decade, driven by economic growth, electrification, and the full retirement of lignite units by 2026. At the same time, the system continues to require reliable dispatchable capacity, creating a structural need for both renewable generation and flexible gas-fired power. Motor Oil is positioned to capture this opportunity through two distinct but complementary platforms. The first is Moore, a regional wind-based renewables leader operating 847 megawatts of modern, highly contracted portfolio assets. Moore also has a mature pipeline of commercially advantaged projects, a balanced portfolio of primarily contracted solar and wind developments with attractive economics and execution visibility. This gives us a clear runway of organic growth in renewable energy until 2030 and beyond.
The second is the Energy Heron Joint Venture, our integrated utility business. It combines a growing retail base with 1.5 gigawatts of dispatchable generation, including Komotinei, the most modern and efficient gas-fired unit in Greece. Komotinei is due to record its first full year of operations in 2026, which is when we will see its full contribution to the company's financials. Together, these two platforms give Motor Oil balanced exposure to both ends of the power spectrum, contracted renewables that provide predictable returns, and flexible generation that captures market upside. Both have excellent organic growth prospects and are positioned to play a leading role in Greece's energy transition over the next decade. Turning to the third pillar of our strategy, the circular economy, this is an area where we see both a powerful national need and a significant growth opportunity for Motor Oil.
Over the coming decade, Greece will need to invest close to EUR 15 billion to address critical gaps in waste management, wastewater treatment, and the water cycle more broadly. These investments are not optional. They're critical and transformational, required for Greece to meet European environmental standards, reduce its dependency on landfills, secure adequacy of water resources, and build the infrastructure necessary to recycle, recover, and reuse resources. In this context, local champions such as Thalys and Helector, which combined form the largest environmental services player in Greece, with close to EUR 600 million of project backlog, will play a critical role in the realization of these investments. As fully integrated platforms with capabilities that span from construction of environmental projects to operation of the most advanced processing facilities in the country, these companies are positioned to facilitate this sectoral transformation in the coming years.
Motor Oil has also established itself in the space of waste oil collection and processing. Through our subsidiaries, LPC and Verde, we are already the leading player in the collection, regeneration, and recycling of waste oils in Greece, businesses that have been profitable and growing consistently for several years. Motor Oil is also positioned to capture significant synergies and complementarities of the circular economy platform with the rest of the group as we explore ways to upcycle waste into energy streams. Overall, the circular economy pillar is consistent with the group's commitment to decarbonize its products and its processes in a value-accretive manner.
With these platforms now in place, circular economy has already become a robust engine of growth for the group, generating approximately EUR 50 million of EBITDA today on a run rate basis, with the potential to increase significantly in the years ahead as new projects mature and as the sector opens further to private investment. Overall, this is a business with long-term visibility and resilience. It is not commodity-linked, and it benefits from stable and concession-based revenues. That makes it a natural complement to our refining and power platforms, adding steady growth and diversification to Motor Oil's portfolio while contributing meaningfully to Greece's environmental transition. On the next slide, Motor Oil's value creation model is built on three engines that span the full energy spectrum. Each business contributes to shareholder value in a distinct way, combining high returns, growth visibility, and resilient cash flows across fuels, power, and resource recovery.
Our refining and consumer operations remain the group's high-return engine, consistently generating strong cash yield supported by scale, complexity, and market leadership. This segment forms the financial foundation that supports growth and shareholder returns. Electrification provides high-quality, risk-adjusted growth. The Energy Heron positions the group to capture substantial market upside in an electricity market with opportunity. Moore delivers contracted cash flows and organic growth backed by a visible maturing pipeline. This business is strategically important, executing on a prudent investment plan, which is underpinned by robust risk-adjusted returns. Finally, as Greece's largest circular economy platform, we operate long-term infrastructure businesses that generate stable, resilient cash flows and solid yield. With major national upgrades underway across waste and water, this segment has significant room for growth.
By operating across fuels, power, and the circular economy, Motor Oil captures opportunities from molecules to electrons, balancing high-return traditional strengths with growth platforms aligned to long-term energy trends. As you can see on the next slide, we continue to make consistent progress towards our commercial targets for 2030. We target over 2 gigawatts of renewables and more than EUR 250 million of renewable EBITDA by 2030, which is achievable by executing the current organic growth plan of Moore. Group non-fuel EBITDA will exceed 40% of the total, confirming the success of our diversification strategy. InCharge continues to grow towards its target by expanding and improving the quality of our network, a natural extension of our consumer energy footprint. Importantly, this growth is coming with capital discipline and strong cash conversion, ensuring that every euro invested supports long-term shareholder value.
On the next slide, we remain fully committed to reducing emissions, but we are doing so in a disciplined, value-accretive way, one that protects shareholder returns and avoids stranded assets. We have already made clear progress. Our renewable portfolio today delivers 1.7 terawatt hours of green energy production, mitigating over 400,000 tons of carbon emissions per year. With the organic expansion of our pipeline, we expect to add another 2.1 terawatt hours of clean generation by 2030. Beyond renewables, we are advancing a set of high-impact decarbonization levers, each aligned with our refinery strengths and supported by European funding. Our SAF production unit is progressing through maturation. It is fully synergistic with existing product streams, although securing dependable long-term feedstock remains a challenge across the industry and a critical milestone towards FID for the project that we systematically evaluate.
Construction is already underway on our 50-megawatt electrolyzer system, supported by EUR 132 million of official sector funding. This will be a catalyst for reducing the carbon intensity of both our products and our process at the refinery. We are also maturing two e-methanol projects, one integrated into the refinery and the second refers to a waste-to-methanol facility in Western Macedonia, both designed to meet the rising demand for advanced e-fuels. We have petitioned funding to support these developments. Finally, we're developing a large-scale CCUS solution at the refinery, part of the IRIS project, which has the potential to abate up to 500,000 tons of CO2 annually. Across all these initiatives, our approach is consistent. We invest where returns are clear, technology is mature, and the pathway to carbon reduction is credible. That is what we mean by disciplined decarbonization.
At this point, on the next slide, I need to underline that our strategic plan to 2030 is fully funded. Since 2021, we have deployed EUR 2.3 billion in investments out of an overall plan that exceeds EUR 4 billion until 2030. The rest of our plan is more than covered by operating cash flows we expect to generate over this period of time, leaving excess cash flow to be deployed towards further strengthening our balance sheet, sustaining an attractive dividend, and pursuing high-return opportunities. Our growth investments are focused on organic projects in electrification and the circular economy, consistent with our view on the opportunity available in this market. A key point here is how we deploy our resilience capital. These investments are primarily in our traditional fuels operations, where we continue to see strong fundamentals.
They fortify the reliability and competitiveness of the refinery and logistics system while also positioning us to capture additional upside from a structurally supportive fuels market. Resilience spend is not defensive. It enhances the performance of our core business. In short, our strategy is fully funded, our balance sheet is projected to remain robust, and our existing businesses underwrite both growth aspirations and shareholder returns. To conclude, Motor Oil has successfully transformed from a best-in-class downstream operator into a regional multi-energy leader. Our portfolio is diversified across the full energy spectrum, fuels, electricity, and circular economy, providing both upside and protection through market cycles. The strategy is fully funded, capital-disciplined, and focused on maximizing shareholder returns. We are leading the energy transition in a pragmatic, value-driven way, ensuring no stranded assets and a clear line of sight to growth through 2030.
In short, Motor Oil stands for growth, resilience, and energy security. Thank you for your attention, and we will now open the floor to questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on the telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, then you may press star and two. Please use your handset when asking your question for better quality. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. The first question comes from Anna with UBS. Please go ahead.
Good evening. Thank you very much for the presentations. I have several questions here. First, it was surprising to see that you increased the capacity of the refinery.
At what utilization rates you are currently running, and what is your outlook maybe early in 2026? Can you sustain now full, I do not know, 100 or over 100% runs, and what is your outlook there? My second question will be around CAPEX into 2026. As you provided the strategy update, you reiterated the targets, but if you can specify the CAPEX curve into next few years, that would be great. My final question will be around insurance compensations. Two parts here. First, around the collections on the cash flow, do you expect to have all of it by year-end, or there could be some flow still in the first quarter?
For the income statement impact, you said that it's a bit too early to comment on the number, but maybe you can let us know what number of months is still not covered by the insurance, what is outstanding. Thank you very much.
Hello, hello, Anna. Utilization rates, what I tried to elude in the presentation is that for two months, two and a half months, we have been running at around 220,000 barrels per day capacity. It's a moving thing. It's not every day. It's an average. What we can say with this experience is that this 220,000 is something we believe that we will be able to run, to continue running. Now, what is the maximum above it? I can't tell you at this point of time because I don't have the time has not elapsed enough. I'll stick to the 220 for now.
Maybe after six months of operation and fine-tuning and everything else, we will have a bigger number, but at this point of time, that's the best we can do. Of course, the increase is a function of this due to the new unit that if you replace a new unit with an old one, you clearly improve things, and it's new technology, new metals, etc. This gives you the extra throughput capacity. CAPEX for next year, it's too early because we are currently, actually, George and his team are preparing a gathering from all the company or have gathered from all the company the business plans, and we are formulating as we speak. We will have a board to the second half of December, our annual board where this CAPEX plan is presented and approved.
We usually are in a position to communicate to you with our full year results. I don't see any surprises, at least for the parent. Sorry, I don't see any surprises for the parent or for the group because the CAPEX plan for Unagi, we more or less know because it's a project that we have undertaken and we've ordered the panels and everything else. I mean, to tell you it will be ballpark figure for what we saw this year, all right, maybe, but don't put it in your models yet. Third, insurance compensation. I have Hara with us, our Treasurer. Have we collected the September ones?
Yes, apart from $18 million.
There is another $18 million remaining from the nine months sort of approved insurance sort of payments.
There is a final amount that is going to be agreed with our brokers at the beginning of December, beginning to mid of December, which will cover July, part of August, and some remaining sort of adjusting numbers of June because it's a progress the way this whole calculation is made. The progress, you send some preliminary numbers, and then when the month has closed, you send the final numbers. A smaller amount clearly. We will know it at the end of December, but we will cash it at the beginning of next year. This is it. We'll finish. Okay? Thanks.
Thank you very much. The next question comes from Ricardo Resende with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, Petros from dark and cold London. A couple of questions, if I may.
First one, when you look at your 2030 plan, given what you mentioned about the energy trilemma and just reordering on the priorities, has that impacted the CAPEX on how you're prioritizing some projects compared to your original plan? Second question also on your long-term perspectives. When we look at the SAF investment that you just mentioned, how far are we from an FID? It's a thing of maybe some quarters or still some years away. Just lastly, a bit more shorter term, you commented about refining margin so far. If you could provide us some more color on how do you see that progressing, maybe first and second quarter of next year. Thank you.
Good to hear you from cold London. Hopefully, I'll see you what? In less than 10 days, we'll be there. We'll be in your offices, yes.
I like your question about the trilemma and prioritizing the projects. We are in a lucky position not to need prioritization of the projects because the way we have made our plan of the CAPEX up to 2030, we are proceeding with what we had planned at the time, meaning our renewables platform is growing with Unagi, which is the big solar panel project now we do together with PPC Renewables. The refinery is pretty clear what we do, the refinery. Okay, SAF, we'll come back to it. That is why there is not any change really at the CAPEX plan the way it is formulated or at least the way we can formulate it for the next couple of years. Now, with SAF, I'll let George respond to it as it's a project he looks closely to. Yeah.
The SAF unit in the current refinery is actually a very interesting project because it benefits from a lot of synergies in the refinery, including availability of hydrogen. Soon, there's going to be availability of green hydrogen. Therefore, it's a very interesting project. If we were to push the button, we would be probably less than a year away from FID. To get there or to be in a position to take a positive FID, we would need to secure or to feel a lot more comfortable about the ability to secure cost-advantaged feedstock. Therefore, we're working also on the commercial maturation of the project, and we would need to progress that a little more if we were to take a decision. Having said all of that, theoretically, in a year's time, we should be able to take FID.
Just to add a bit, this slide that George presented, which number is the slide? Nine. Nine. Really has all those projects in such an order and fashion and progress that it gives you a little bit of insight how mature we are in our thinking and how close we are to a final decision. There are many moving parts in these projects. Okay? Now, on margins, they are strong. They are very good. We like looking at the forward cracks because it's the only insight one has. This morning, having an internal meeting and looking at forward cracks in Q1, they continue being pretty high for middle distillates. It is difficult to give a concrete prediction. I do not like giving predictions. What we can say is that the market is tight. Okay?
It is tight from a supply point of view, and it is also tight from a refinery capacity point of view, not nominal capacity, but effective capacity, meaning refineries that can have access to the crude and have access to the markets and being able to deliver the products to where they are required. Because at the end of the day, this is what creates the microgeographic sort of tensions which push the refineries, the margins high. We are in an optimistic period, I would say.
That was super clear. Thank you very much, and looking forward to see you soon. Yes.
The next question comes from Vagelis Karanikas with NBG Securities. Please go ahead.
Hello. Good afternoon to everybody. Two questions from my side. One a bit short-term regarding the fourth quarter.
If you can please confirm, if I heard well, that the fourth quarter in the refining business, you said it's going to be better to surpass the third quarter numbers. On my estimates, this implies around EUR 1.2 billion annual adjusted EBITDA, which is well above consensus if you can confirm that. The second question on the integrated of the new integrated electric utility business agreement with Heron. Is it correct to assume that the run rate for the whole 2026 of the new entity will be around EUR 200 million in terms of EBITDA? If you can provide some color on the valuation assigned on your assets contributed to the joint venture. Thank you very much.
[Foreign Language] Your questions are really to the point. Well done.
I must tell the floor that you were actually one of the very first people who covered us when you used to work for HSBC Pandelaki Securities, if I remember well. You have known us for many, many years, and you know the sector for many years. Q4, the way it looks now, looking at the daily margins, looking at the volume of sales and the refinery operating, one can conclude, can say that it is going to be better than Q3. Full stop. This is for the refinery. I am not commenting on the group and on the rest of the businesses. Okay, we are on the, what is today? 20th of November, so we have another month to go. We have unknowns like inventory gains or inventory losses.
If the prices drop for some reason, you might book some inventory losses, but this, again, on an adjusted basis is not important. Plus, I have no crystal ball, and I don't have any more knowledge because I yet don't know the real numbers of October. It is more guessing from the information that we have. Now, with Heron Energy, at first, I thought George will respond to the question because it would be a bit technical on the merger, since he's in charge of the merger. I will choose to answer because we have not given any guidance on that. Plus, besides some slide with some blurred, let's say, bar graph on page six of the presentation we made on the investor update. I would guide you to look at what analysts have written on it.
The numbers that are around are numbers that your community has prepared rather than we having given guidance. I am not refusing to answer. I am just sending you to read another document, which I have already.
Thank you. Thank you very much, Petros. Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Zanetakis for any closing comments. Thank you. Just to say thank you for listening in. Thank you for your good questions and that put us in the corner, but we like getting out of the corner, laughing, smiling. See you, some of you, in London in 10 days.
From all of us here, have a good afternoon and a good rest of the day. Bye-bye. Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for calling and have a pleasant evening.