Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I am Gailey, your Chorus Call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Piraeus Financial Holdings conference call and live webcast to present and discuss Piraeus Group's first half 2022 financial results. All participants will be in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question- and- answer session. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on your telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Piraeus Financial Holdings CEO, Mr. Christos Megalou. Mr. Megalou, you may now proceed.
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to today's conference call on our half- year 2022 financial results. This is Christos Megalou, Chief Executive Officer, and I'm joined today by Theo Gnardellis, Chief Financial Officer, and Chrys Berbati, Head of Business Planning and IR. Today, we have released a milestone set of half- year results, the key highlights of which are set on slide 5. We report normalized earnings per share of EUR 0.21 for the half year. We have achieved a 9% NPE ratio ahead of schedule with strongly negative formation. EUR 226 million of core profitability with interest income and especially fee income growing strongly. We are generating a more than 10% normalized return on tangible book. Our fully loaded CET1 ratio is at 10.2%, ahead of our year-end target, which we are upgrading.
We have grown our loan book by more than EUR 1.5 billion in the first half, also beating the year-end target with resilient yields. Before elaborating upon the bank's performance, let me comment on the macroeconomic situation. On slides 6 and 7, we see that the Greek economy is expected to grow strongly in 2022 at a rate of almost 6%, as previously guided by Piraeus. This is double the EU average. Employment is continuing to rebound, and the tourist season is beating the 2019 record. Real estate prices continue to grow while remaining significantly below their peak. The ECB recently increased its deposit rate by 50 basis points, which obviously will boost banking revenue pools. Such rate hikes are expected to continue as the central bank acts against inflationary pressures across the continent.
At this stage, a looming energy crisis is the biggest concern. However, the country's energy sources are sufficient to withstand supply constraints, as Greece's dependence on Russian natural gas is relatively small. We emphasize that Greece is at a uniquely different point in the economic cycle compared to almost all European peers. Still coming out of a decade-long recession with a major investment gap, the momentum in favor of economic growth is powerful, and investment flows are showing no sign of abating, with EU NextGeneration funding favoring Greece. We do remain vigilant, though, closely monitoring all forward-looking indicators to identify any issues the current environment might trigger. However, present facts and conditions on the ground do not point to severe or unmanageable outcomes in the coming period.
Turning now to our financial results, we start on slide 8 with a major achievement, which is the massive deleveraging of NPEs to bring us to a single-digit 9% ratio today. The Hercules deals have been the major factor, but organic reduction is also a significant driver, and this will lead us to the European average by 2024. The drastic reduction of the NPE ratio is part of the market improvement in our fundamentals, as shown on slides 9 and 10. This has resulted in large part from the successful execution of the Sunrise Plan, as well as rigorous optimization of operations and strong performance by our frontline staff in retail and corporate to grow our loan books and revenues.
On slide 11, we see a remarkably stronger balance sheet with ample liquidity, a much smaller amount of NPEs, and a growing tangible book value. On slide 12, we see the bank had another profitable quarter, which on slide 13 is shown to generate EUR 0.21 of normalized earnings per share for the first half of 2022, driven by EUR 0.16 per share of core operating profit. Solid trends in key core operating lines are apparent on slide 14, with special mention of our fees and commissions line, where we posted a 22% increase year-on-year. Slide 15 illustrates our strong organic NPE trajectory at -EUR 250 million for the quarter. Our accelerated NPE reduction kept underlying cost of risk at 50 basis points for another quarter, down from 100 in first half 2021.
Slide 16 shows the solid, healthy, and profitable credit expansion of EUR 1.5 billion in the first six months of 2022, with EUR 1.2 billion achieved in Q2. This means that we have achieved our end- of- year target a full six months earlier, creating a significant tailwind for NII and allowing us to upgrade our expectations for the full year 2022. The total new disbursements of EUR 4.4 billion were made at an average yield of 3.6%, protecting the overall loan book yield. Obviously, a larger loan book originated earlier benefits to a greater degree from rising ECB reference rate. Our capital position continues to improve, as shown on Slide 17.
Our regulatory capital is at 16.7% with more than 200 basis points buffer versus the requirement, while our fully loaded CET1 increased by another 20 basis points to 10.2% with 2022 NPE cleanup costs fully absorbed. Our capital position benefits from the recent signing of the three synthetic securitizations that deliver a cumulative EUR 1.1 billion of risk weighted asset relief, all executed ahead of schedule and with favorable terms. The first half 2022 performance sets the stage for a much stronger 2022 than initially planned. Going through to the next slides and landing on slide 26, where we outline our renewed full year 2022 expectations. Normalized earnings per share is now expected to land at EUR 0.35.
Fully loaded CET1 ratio will end the year at 11%, approximately 100 basis points ahead of previous estimates. We expect the NPE ratio to continue to decrease to the 8% area, while returns on tangible book value will be 8% this year on a normalized basis. On slide 27, we see the broad components of our guidance upgrades, with revenues in particular coming in stronger. The revenues upgrade is depicted in more detail on slide 28. We now expect EUR 300 million of incremental revenues, of which EUR 200 million relate to front loaded expansion, resilient spreads and rising rates. Slide 29 illustrates the accelerated restoration of our CET1 buffers. The organic capital generation that we foresee, together with additional synthetic securitizations in the pipeline, minus other restructuring costs, will bring us to the 11% CET1 on a fully loaded basis by year end.
This, together with 16% fully loaded total regulatory capital, will take Piraeus into 2023 with strong capital buffers and a growing revenue pool, allowing us to withstand potential headwinds. From 2023 onwards, we expect to consistently generate 100 basis points of organic capital annually. Our operating achievements give us confidence in this trajectory.
In light of the strong operating performance and results in this quarter, we would like to draw your attention to the relative value analysis, implying significant upside in our stock. Slide 32 shows our price- to- earnings ratio versus peers and the respective difference. While slide 33, we see a similar relative analysis based on an annualization of first half results. From slide 34 to slide 45, we put forward a reality check of where we stand in terms of a number of metrics. Slide 34, return on tangible book. Slide 35, net fees ratio. Slide 36, operating efficiency. Slide 37, cost control. Slide 38, loan growth. With the largest retail customer base, as shown on slide 39, we are most levered to Greek GDP growth. Slide 40 shows that our regulatory capital is sufficient with somewhat smaller CET1 buffers today.
As indicated on slide 41, our strong operating results are growing our capital buffers, beginning with the 2022 outperformance. On slides 42 and 43, we note the single-digit NPE ratio already achieved alongside peers and the clear path to the European average with progress again ahead of schedule. Given these metrics and taking the relevant disclaimer into account, in a growing market like Greece, Piraeus Bank has significant upside potential. With that, let's open the floor to take any questions you may have.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on their telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, then you may press star and two. Those participating via the webcast, please review related information in the Q&A live session tab should you wish to ask a question. For those participating in the questions- and- answer session, please use your handset when asking your question for better quality. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. The first question is from the line of Mehmet Sevim with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, thanks very much for the presentation, and congratulations on the results. I'll have a couple of questions, please. First of all, on your new guidance, obviously quite significant upgrades. Could you please dig a bit deeper into the individual guidance lines for the P&L and, give some color on where you'd expect those trends to continue and where we may see some cool down in the second half? A couple of questions on your capital as well, please. You indicated the fully loaded CET1 should grow to 11% by the end of the year, and of that, you expect 80 basis points should be organic capital generation. If you could please provide some more specific color on this point, that'll be very helpful.
On a related note, given you've upgraded your CET1 target effectively to the level you are aiming to reach at the end of next year, can I ask if there's an element of front- loading of any capital measures here that you were initially planning to do in 2023? Or should we expect CET1 percentage points higher next year, all else equal?
Thanks a lot, Sevim. Thanks a lot for the questions. On page 27, we're actually illustrating where the organic profitability is primarily driven. As you'll see, it's the top line that drives the delta in the revised forecast. That primarily comes from interest income from the accelerated loan expansion, as well as a minor effect of the interest rate hike that has already happened, and we have seen and assumed. It is pretty much things that have happened that are leading the overall revenue to a higher run rate and a higher expectation for the year.
That in combination with slightly lower cost of risk guidance to what we have said so far, again, based on the run rate that we have seen, guides for this kind of renewed guidance and for a new return expectation for the 8% of the year. To your second question, and regarding the capital expectation, the 11%. The 80 basis points are basically the bottom line result as expected in our forecast for the year, right? It's something north of EUR 200 million of organic capital generation that we're expecting, based on the profitability expected in Q3 and Q4.
That is the major part, and a new synthetic program that we've got in place gets us to the 11% mark. To your question around 2023, it really depends on the profitability of 2023. The guidance that we have given is indeed a point higher, and this is where we basically stay. That does not take into account the tailwind effect that we've got from the NII, of course, nor does it take into account any question that one might have on the cost of risk for 2023. But keeping everything equal, the 2022-2023 single percentage point delta was purely based on organic profitability, so no capital actions will have been front- loaded.
Okay. That's all very helpful. Thanks very much, Theo.
The next question is from the line of Alevizos Alevizakos with Axia Ventures. Please go ahead.
Hello. Thank you, very much for the presentation. The first question is a follow-up, effectively. What was really great about this quarter was not only the NII, but also the improvement in the fees and commissions, much quicker than we hoped. I was wondering how you feel about the EUR 530 million target for 2025. I know it's still far ahead, but especially for some things like, for example, the rental income, it seems to me like the run rate is already higher than the figure that you've guided three years ahead, so I was wondering whether there is something there. Secondly, one of the other things that seems to be working very nicely is the interest income on securities.
We all know that the liquidity in the Greek system is increasing, and you've been benefiting as well with a lot of new deposits coming in. I was wondering whether now you've got an updated number on how much securities you further wanna take on the balance sheet. I remember, like, in the past, the figure was about EUR 15 billion, but you're already above EUR 14 billion, so I was wondering whether there's a new number. Thank you.
Hi, Al. On the fees and commissions, the general point to make is that this was a strategic decision and a conservative effort on behalf of the management team to work around in actually, you know, making sure that we have now these results that we see in front of us, both in terms of what we are achieving in terms of the rental income that you pointed out, but also through increased fees for lending products, increased fees from a number of other areas, including asset management, transaction banking, the credit card and debit card business, and so on. I mean, we are happy with the progress we are making.
We have upgraded our number for the end of the year, and of course, you know, going forward, you know, we think that similar trends will be followed. Very good results so far, and of course, is looking the way forward for the years to come. Now I'll pass on the floor to Theo for your securities question.
Al, to your question about securities, we have grown the book on a face value basis quite substantially in Q2, right? I mean, what you're seeing there is also the effect of fair value hedging, the EUR 500 million increase. Actually, we have grown face value by more than a EUR 1.5 billion, and we're currently running at an interest income from securities of about EUR 60 million per quarter at an effective interest rate of something short of 2%. Overall, we're talking about quite a well-yielding book with what we have added so far, and the guidance for this year and the next does not assume any further increase.
We feel that we've reached a level with which we're comfortable as a percentage of the balance sheet and with various moves that we've made, including the introductions of this EUR 1.5 billion. We are happy also with the yield. This is kind of an NII generator on a static basis for the years to come.
Thank you very much, Theo. If I can have one follow-up for you. I just wanna confirm one thing, that the synthetic securitization of the EUR 500 million is actually something that, incrementally was announced today. It wasn't something in the original plan. Is that correct?
Yes, Al, that's correct. Our plan had a program of EUR 1.1 billion for the full year. With the expertise we've built in that area, we managed to get it all signed within the first half of the year, and actually, one of the deals has already received SRT, and the relief is already in the reported figures. The rest are coming by the authorities in the coming quarters. We're because of this leeway, and by looking at our book, we have discovered perimeters that we would like to protect, that will provide more than EUR 500 million of RWA relief. We intend to execute them in the second half of the year.
Great. Thank you very much, and well done for the set of results.
The next question is from the line of Alexei Lougovtsov with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much for the presentation and for the great results. If I may, I would like to ask a question from the fixed- income side. What are bond issuance needs for this year and maybe next year? Also, do you think the regulator can postpone some of the deadlines for raising MREL debt by Greek banks?
Hi, Alexei. On page 57, we are disclosing our current MREL position as we stand. So we have a guidance requirement for an 18.8 level for the 1st January 2023, right? Given that, and also the new guidance we've provided for how our capital is going to evolve and our RWA profile, this means extra MREL liability is required of less than EUR 500 million, right? Versus a different number that we've given in the past. This is an informative guidance number that the regulator has given, so it's not a binding target. That being said, given the reduced requirement that we've got from our new guidance and capital generation, it's something that we absolutely would like to meet.
We're looking at all available options until the end of the year to get that done.
For this year, EUR 500 million, right, of MREL?
Less than that, yeah.
Less than that. Is this more likely to be in the form of senior preferred?
Well, an EMTN issuance is always the primary option. There are also other alternatives someone can look at for MREL-eligible liabilities, that would be the minority of this story. Definitely, some sort of EMTN issuance would be in the plan, to meet this indicative target.
Okay. On the subordinated front, anything for this or next year?
No, nothing there. We've met all of the buffers on Tier 2 and AT1 with issues we've done and those liabilities stay.
Okay, fantastic. Thank you very much, and good luck.
Sure.
The next question is from the line of David Daniel with Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions, and congratulations on the results. I've just got two, one on capital, one on NPEs. Just on capital, on slide 29, in the June pro forma number, there's the post-June 2022 developments of 30 basis points. Just wondering if you could provide a bit more color on what's included in that 30 basis points. Then, just looking ahead, in the past, you've mentioned that Q1 2023 might be the kind of tight point for capital. If I take your 11% fully loaded target and knock off the IFRS 9 phasing that's due to happen next year, it looks like you get quite close to SREP.
Is it down to earnings in that first quarter to kinda make sure you're above SREP in Q1, and where do you see that Q1 ratio? Secondly, just on NPEs, in the past, I'm just interested in what's included in your NPE flight path now to get down to the 8%. I think in the past you've talked about a bit of flexibility with your assumptions, and I'm just interested to hear kind of what you're assuming for cures, write-offs, and inflows and outflows. Thanks.
Starting with your second question for the capital position in Q1 2023, that was indeed the point before the current guidance. Our current fully loaded numbers are 11% for CET1 and almost 16% for total capital. Actually, that takes into account IFRS 9 phasing of the 1st January 2023, so that is no longer the case. With the new capital guidance we've given, the buffer actually starts the year, expands, and starts the year with more than 150 points versus requirement and then builds on the back of organic profitability for Q1 onwards. That kind of tight spot had to do with the IFRS 9 guidance. The new fully loaded numbers incorporate that and therefore enhance that buffer as well.
To your 30 basis points story, there's not much we can say right now. What we can tell you, and happy to take it offline with whoever's interested, is this primarily value from the that we've identified in the securities book that we will be capturing in the Q3 result. It's similar. It's value that's of similar nature to what other European peers have done. And again, we can take it offline, and we can explain more if you need. On the NPEs, as our CEO said, very strong negative formation going on in the first half of the year. The nature of the NPEs still allows for organic decumulation of the balances.
The current guidance that we've got for 8%, though, does not include any further substantial negative formation, right? This could be an upside for us going forward. Right now, the 8% is primarily done on the write-off plan that we've got, as well as a faster growth on the denominator. Any extra negative formation that comes our way in Q3, Q4, holding the pattern of Q1 and Q2, will reduce the numerator from our target of EUR 3.3 billion further down.
Thanks. If I can maybe follow up on the first part on IFRS 9. Slide 29, where you show the kind of flight path to 11%. Is the IFRS 9 baked into one of those blocks as it were, or is that to come after December 2022?
Yes. The answer is yes. All the fully loaded numbers have the IFRS 9 baked in. If you go to page 56, you will see the difference between phased in and fully loaded, right?
Yeah.
You'll see the phased in today is 11% and the, on a reported basis, and the fully loaded is 9.5%. Out of those 150 points, 120 points is IFRS 9 phased in, and the COVID-related relief of Article 468 is the rest. When we report fully loaded, we take all of the whatever is going away on the 1st January is baked into the reported. That's why we're starting that waterfall, that bridge with the 9.5%.
Thanks a lot.
The next question is from the line of Garry Riddle with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.
Yes, hello. Thank you for taking my questions. I have three on capital, please. Firstly, just to follow up on that 30 basis points post-June development, can you tell us whether that is a reclassification of bonds into amortized cost? And then secondly, just on the 80 basis points of planned organic capital generation, can you talk a little bit about the risks you see to that figure, and have you incorporated any downside, especially on impairments in the second half of the year? And finally, can you explain the 30 basis points quarter-on-quarter reduction in the reported fully loaded CET1 ratio to 9.5%, please? Thank you.
Okay. On the first part around the post-June development, this is a Q3, I think, that will happen, because it's a Q2 result, we cannot disclose further. It has to do with the securities book. But if you don't mind, let's just, you know, take any further questions you've got, offline. In terms of the downside to and the risk to that organic profitability in the path to 11%, I would say not really, with a bit of with. You always put a footnote when you say this, but the fact is that this comes primarily on the back of good revenue run rate of stuff that have already happened, right?
In that forecast, there's no massive interest rate hike that needs to happen kind of next week for us to get there, right? Everything is kind of done. It's a very small, rather conservative expected lending expansion that does not match any way. The fee levels are happening from across all the lines, and it comes from the economic activity of the year. It's a very strong growth year for the country. On the top line, I'd say nothing much. On the cost of risk, the guidance that we have has elevated cost of risk in half two versus what we had in half one. This has been done bottom up, looking at the book. There's no top-down assessment. We're currently trending at 50+ points of cost of risk.
We're going for higher than that. That's what we're guiding for the end of the year. Lower than our initial guidance, yet higher for the full year north of 60 points. As far as closing the year at 11% this year, the capital story, I'd say not so much, right? The debate is how much of that NII tailwind in 2023 we will be able to book in our bottom line versus our previous guidance, which we're not discussing today.
To your question about reconciling the 30 basis point drop from the 9.8 that we had in Q1 to the 9.5 that we've got today on a CET1 basis and respectively on total capital, this is primarily OCI drop that we've got, plus the AT1 coupon, that's not a P&L item, and some other detailed moves that have to do with recognition in the CET1 of deferred tax. Mostly it's OCI and AT1 coupon.
All right. Thank you very much.
As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. Once again, to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. As a final reminder, to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question is from the line of Butkov Mikhail with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Good day. Thank you very much for the presentation and congrats on the results. One small question from me on the loan book expansion. Indeed, it was very strong in the first half, and do you think there was any element of the front- loading of the demand from business or corporates ahead of the interest rate hikes? Or you think that this growth was driven purely by the organic economic expansion and all these growth factors? Thank you.
Hi, Mikhail. Look, this is a very much of an organic growth nature across many sectors with many clients, not a large corporate ticket, both in the SME front, but also large corporate and pretty granular. We were very pleased with this because it reflects credit demand in an economy that is expected to grow at 6% for the year, pretty much across sectors, notably renewable energy, healthcare, services, hospitality, industry/manufacturing was a big part of this. Pretty good, healthy demand for credit was the driving force behind the second quarter growth. That's the reason why we're confident enough to upgrade our net credit expansion at above EUR 2 billion for the year.
Indeed. Were these loans fixed or floater-based?
Almost entirely floating. These were almost entirely floating. Given that the RRF has not kicked in yet in terms of payments and flows. There is a big order book there, but hasn't really flowed into our books yet.
Okay. Very clear. Thank you very much.
Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Megalou for any closing comments. Thank you.
Well, thank you all for participating in our half-year 2022 results presentation conference call. We look forward to discussing with you, physically, it would be live, but also virtually, during our corporate outreach program, commencing as of early September. In the meantime, have a relaxing holiday and looking forward to seeing you in person from September onwards. Thank you all.
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for calling, and have a pleasant evening.