Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. I am Mina, your call's call operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Piraeus Financial Holdings Conference Call, a live webcast to present and discuss Piraeus nine month 2025 financial results. All participants will be listened on remote, and the conference is being recorded. The presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on your telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Piraeus Financial Holdings CEO, Mr. Christos Megalou. Mr. Megalou, you may now proceed.
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and good morning to those joining us from the U.S. This is Christos Megalou, Chief Executive Officer, and I'm joined today by our CFO, Theodore Gnardellis, Chryssanthi Berbati, and Xenofon Damas to present and discuss Piraeus third quarter and nine month 2025 results. Today I'll take you through the two first sections of the presentation covering the main financial and business achievements for the nine month period and demonstrating Piraeus s tanding in the European banking landscape. This will be followed by a Q&A session. As always, detailed analysis of all the key performance drivers of Piraeus is incorporated in the latter sections of the presentation. The slides are also accompanied by a comprehensive Excel worksheet with historical financial and business figures.
In addition, along with our IR materials we published today, our new sustainability blueprint covering the full spectrum of questions from stakeholders. All the materials can be found on our corporate website. Let's begin our presentation with slide four. Piraeus is the leading bank in Greece, ranking first across all major business lines. We serve 4.5 million clients with a workforce of 7,400 employees. Our total assets stand at EUR 83 billion, with EUR 37 billion in client loans and EUR 64 billion in client deposits, representing 28% market share in deposits. We operate an omnichannel distribution platform with 370 branches, 1,300 ATMs, and 3 million digital clients. Our mobile app is top ranked, reflecting our commitment to digital excellence and customer satisfaction.
Financially, we demonstrate robust strength with return on tangible equity at 15%, cost-to-income ratio at 34%, loan growth of over EUR 3 billion year to date, up 9% since December 2024, total capital ratio at 20.6%, and liquidity coverage ratio at 217%. We are a leader in sustainable banking with EUR 4.3 billion in sustainable financing, EUR 1.65 billion in green bonds outstanding, and a strong focus on supporting small businesses and farmers. Our leading market position, sustainable long-term business model, and strong recurring earnings are reflected in our recent upgrade to investment grade rating by Fitch. Piraeus i s now rated investment grade by three of the four main major credit rating agencies. All these outstanding results have been delivered thanks to our people and our clients. The macro environment is favorable, as you can see on slide five. The gap to pre-crisis GDP, investment, and financing suggests multi-year expansion ahead.
Real GDP growth remains above the EU average, strongly supported by investments. Unemployment has declined markedly and continues to trend downwards, further strengthening our operating environment. Let's move now to slide six for the key highlights of our nine month 2025 performance. We generated normalized net profit of EUR 854 million, corresponding to return on average tangible book value of 15%. This leads us to upgrade our 2025 target to approximately 15% from 14% previously. Our earnings for the nine months are EUR 0.62 per share. We expect to exceed our guidance of EUR 0.80 per share for 2025. On the back of our strong year-to-date performance, we have commenced an interim distribution to our shareholders out of 2025 profits in the form of a EUR 100 million share buyback that will be completed in November.
In total, we are on track to exceed a EUR 500 million distribution out of the 2025 profit, or approximately EUR 0.40 per share, which corresponds to a 6% yield based on our closing price on 30th of September. We have expanded our loan book by EUR 3.1 billion during the nine month period to EUR 36.8 billion in total. Today, we are raising our full year target for net credit expansion to over EUR 3.5 billion from EUR 3 billion previously. We delivered EUR 648 million net revenues in the third quarter, with net interest income stabilizing at the same level as the second quarter and fees increasing by 5% year-on-year. Our revenue diversifying efforts are reflected in our net fees over net revenues of 25% and fees over assets of 0.8%, 80 basis points. Both metrics are best in class in Greece and close to or above average in Europe.
Net fee income reached EUR 489 million in the nine months, consistent with our upgraded target of EUR 650 million for 2025. Our cost to core income ratio stood at 34%, among the best in the European banking market, reflecting our strong cost discipline. Our asset quality dynamics remain solid with the NPE ratio of 2.5%, while cost of risk shaped at 49 basis points in line with our target of approximately 50 basis points for 2025. Our assets under management increased to EUR 14.3 billion during the nine month period, up 30% year-on-year, exceeding the upgraded 2025 target of above EUR 13.5 billion. Furthermore, client deposits rose by 5% annually and are now at EUR 64 billion. Our total capital reached EUR 20.6 billion. Absorbing the 50% distribution accrual, strong loan growth, and DTC amortization.
We maintain a buffer of 460 basis points above Pillar 2 Guidance, or 310 basis points including the Ethniki Insurance acquisition, which is expected to close in the fourth quarter. Slide seven presents the details of our third quarter and nine month operating results. We sustainably grow our tangible book value per share, now at EUR 6.09 per share, which is net of the EUR 0.30 per share cash dividend paid in June 2025. On slide eight, we present our strong loan origination dynamics. Performing loans increased by EUR 3.1 billion in the nine months, driven not only by all business lending segments but also by an increase in household lending. Importantly, Q3 marked a new cycle record of EUR 190 million for mortgage disbursements. The strong performance leads us to revise upward our 2025 net credit expansion target to EUR 3.5 billion from EUR 3 billion previously.
On slide nine, we present a detailed sector breakdown of our CIB net credit expansion of EUR 3.2 billion in the nine month period. As you can see, our corporate platform outreach is very granular, reaching all sectors of the Greek economy. Among other initiatives, we are increasing our presence in syndicated deals, and we are offering greenhouse technology financing solutions. We are also very happy to be the bank of choice for SME clients in Greece, as shown by the top performance in disbursements. Slide 10 demonstrates that we have achieved our loan growth outperformance while maintaining pricing discipline, which is testament to the commercially rigorous approach of all our teams. We have been able to compete and win business while pricing at par with the market average and keeping risk-adjusted return at the core of our business credit underwriting.
Turning to slide 11, the key milestone to note is that mortgage loan growth net of repayments has turned positive by EUR 45 million in the third quarter and overall marginally positive in the nine months. This follows net consumer loan growth, which already turned positive in 2024. Mortgages and consumer disbursements have been growing since 2021, mortgages by 20% annually and consumer by 10%, but this growth was previously outweighed by heavy repayments. We now have reached an inflection point that bodes well for future expansion of our loan book and revenue streams. Slide 12 outlines the impressive evolution of our net fee income, which is being supported by asset management, bancassurance, and loan originations.
Our diversified model brings outstanding results, and these do not yet include the anticipated incorporation of Ethniki Insurance in our group, which will elevate net fee income with expansion across all segments of the market, namely life and health protection and P&C protection. The group will take advantage of the synergies between our nationwide network of strong relationship management from U.S. retail to corporate on the one hand, and the insurance factories' expertise and franchise on the other. Slide 13 demonstrates the growing trends of assets under management that reached EUR 43 billion in September, backed by strong net inflows of EUR 1.3 billion. We have upscaled our investment solutions offering to private banking and retail clients, incorporating robo-advisors, while our open architecture strategy, combining Piraeus Asset Management and expertise with a wide suite of best-of-breed third-party products, is paying off. Slide 14 presents detailed information regarding net interest income intrinsics.
In a nutshell, our growing loan book partly offsets the material drop in base rates of circa 35 basis points in Q3. Time deposit downward repricing is driving funding costs lower. As a result, NII decline decelerated considerably, standing at just -0.5% in the third quarter. Growth in NII is expected from Q4 onwards. Turning to slide 15, our cost control efforts kept operating expenses in the third quarter stable versus the previous quarter, despite the Snappi launch and the insurance transaction-related costs. Overall, we remain very cost-conscious and on track to meet our annual target. Slide 16 provides a summary of our asset quality indicators. Our NPE ratio stands at an all-time low of 2.5%, while the organic cost of risk shaped at 49 basis points in the third quarter, in line with our annual target.
We note the ongoing reduction of NPE servicing fees, down 5 basis points year-on-year. On stage one, stage two, and stage three coverage ratio, we are increasing them, and we are now higher than the EU average. Piraeus enjoys a superior liquidity profile presented on slide 17. Our liquidity ratios remain solid, as evidenced by the high balance of deposits at EUR 64 billion and the 217 liquidity coverage ratio. Moreover, we are the Greek bank with the highest green bond issuance, totaling EUR 1.65 billion. Turning now to our capital base, on slide 18. Our CET1 ratio stood at 14.6% at the end of September, absorbing best in class loan growth, 50% distribution accrual, and accelerated DTC amortization. Piraeus has a 460 basis points CET1 buffer at the end of Q3. Slide 19 outlines the significance of digital banking and technology for Piraeus.
Digital transformation continues to drive efficiency, with 99% of transactions now digital and 3 million digital active users. Our GenAI virtual assistant and automation initiatives have delivered significant productivity gains. On slide 20, we present an update on Snappi, our neobank with its own portable pan-European banking license. Snappi launched commercially in September and is already gaining significant traction with its fully digital app-based branchless low CapEx model. Snappi has 30,000 app users after less than a month of operations. We will update you on Snappi's progress and plans for expansion with our Q4 results. On slide 21, we present our 2025 revised targets. Based on our nine month performance, we are upgrading our guidance on net credit expansion to more than EUR 3.5 billion for the year and our return on tangible book value guidance to 15% from 14% previously.
We remain confident in our future trajectory because of our proven ability to deliver sustainable, profitable growth and create value for our shareholders. Let's turn now to the second section of our presentation for our positioning within the competitive landscape. Piraeus is in a leading position in Greece in terms of performing loans, deposits, equities brokerage, and network, as highlighted on slide 23. In addition, Piraeus ranks at par or above average on all major KPIs in the European banking space. Slides 24 to 30 present the key metrics for Piraeus versus European bank averages. On slide 24, Piraeus delivers best in class loan growth in Europe, outpacing EU peers by a wide margin. On slide 25, our net interest margin is far above the European average, reflecting our pricing power and effective balance sheet management.
On slide 26, net fee and commission income over assets is well above the European average and the best in Greece. On slide 27, our cost-to-core income ratio is best in class in Europe, demonstrating our ongoing focus on operational efficiency and cost discipline. On slide 28, Piraeus' return on tangible book value is well above the EU average, highlighting our ability to generate superior returns for our shareholders. On slide 29, Piraeus' implied cost of equity remains high, given the relatively tight sovereign risk premium, suggesting further re-rating potential. Finally, concluding with slide 30. Despite our strong fundamentals in absolute and relative terms in relation to our European peers, Piraeus trades below EU banks with similar earnings, implying significant upside for our shareholders. With that, let's now open the floor to your questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will begin the question and answer session.
Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star followed by one on their telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, then you may press star and two. Those participating via the webcast, please review related information in the Q&A live session tab should you wish to ask a question. For those participating in the question and answer session, please use your hands before asking your question. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. One moment for the first question, please. The first question is from the line of Boulougouris, Alex, with Euroxx. Please go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon. Many thanks for the presentation. Three questions on my end, if I may. The first is regarding the improvement we have seen in the mortgage disbursements.
Could you clarify if this is related to the My Home II program, or should we see it as more change of trends going forward? That is my first question. The second is regarding time deposit costs. We have seen a good decline, about 20 bps QoQ. How should we see that going forward, assuming rates stabilize at about 2%? What should be the normalized run rate in terms of time deposit costs? My third question regarding asset management fees. We've seen a very strong growth of 38% in the nine-month period. Would it be possible to give us a guidance or a split of how much of that derives from net new business and how much is from the market effect, approximately? Thank you.
Hi, Alex. Thank you for the question.
Just to focus on your first question on mortgage growth, it is actually, we believe, a change in the way things are developing in the market in Greece. It is a reflection of more interest that we see across the board on mortgages, which is resulting in new disbursements. Our very successful program in terms of applications and balances has not materialized in disbursements yet. We expect that this will take effect mostly towards the end of this quarter, but most importantly, in the new year. We are projecting net credit growth in mortgages, and we will come up with the guidance for 2026, where we do expect further net credit growth in that particular segment of our business. I pass on to Theo for your second question.
Yes, Alex. Regarding the time deposit cost, obviously, we're on a downward trend with the reduction of the Euribor.
I think the 160 has further room. We're currently at around 155. I wouldn't say that the better is substantial for us to expect further substantial growth going forward. I think we've kind of landed where we expect it to be, but we still have some room, maybe 5 basis points - 10 basis points down on the overall TD cost. Alex, on your third question on the asset management, we have on page 13 the way we lay out the way the book is growing. There is a part of it that is the market effect, and also EUR 1.3 billion is the net inflows. Given the way we account for the market effect, the large part of the fees that you see is relating to the net inflows.
We see how this will develop towards the end of the year, but given what we see in terms of market intrinsics, we do believe that we will be ending up the year with EUR 100 million plus fees for 2025. Many thanks. I assume that this 38% as a proxy, we could see from the split between net inflows and the market effect that you mentioned on page 33 to see the differentiation of how much comes from net inflows and how much is the market effect. Actually, Alex, not exactly prorata. The market effect is on year about EUR 9 million. Currently, what you're seeing is EUR 5 million is the market rate effect on this particular quarter. Actually, it's not 50/50 as you see on the AUM, yes?
Clear cut. Thank you.
The next question is from Kemeny Gabor with Autonomous Reearch. Please go ahead. Thank you.
My first question would be on your spreads and growth, loan growth relations. I believe your corporate lending spread declined a little bit in Q3. Do you see this as being in line with the market? Is this kind of 5 basis points - 6 basis point contraction what you would expect going forward in the next few quarters? A related question to that would be, shall we expect your NIM to stabilize, or when you guide for sequential NII growth, does this assume any more NIM contraction? From the Q3 level? And then finally, on Ethniki, when do you believe you would be in a position to elaborate in more detail on your strategic initiatives and financial targets from this business?
Thank you. Hi, Gabor. So first question, spreads. Slight erosion, about 7 basis points, seems to be in line with the market.
We've got also the spread evolution, how it has happened on the business loans and portfolio in page 10. We're following also market status. Things seem to be in line. This slight spread erosion is countered right now, overcountered by volumes. Overall, on page 14, we're showing the NII breakdown. The performing exposure gross interest income dropped by $11 million. Within that, there is a volume stroke spread net effect of almost positive $10 million. Really, the reduction that's going on in the performing exposure is primarily driven by the base rate drop of more than 30 basis points that we have had on the accruing base. Overall, this slight spread erosion is overcountered by volume growth, creating a positive NII situation on the performing exposures given the trajectory of the risk-free.
If one believes that the risk-free has reached the floor, and it seems that it has, we're currently accruing at 2.06%. There's maybe 5, 6 basis points to go to the current spot Euribor. We're looking at a turnaround on the NII and potentially even a slight increase in Q4 going forward, which answers, I think, your second question that we're looking at a NIM stabilization right now. I think the erosion has stopped, always with a footnote on the risk-free as to what's going to happen in the future. On Ethniki, exciting work going on and has been happening over the last two months in quite a lot of detail. A lot of levers to be pulled. The business plan is being detailed so we can elaborate, as you're very rightfully asking, in the Q4 results.
This is when we will come out and talk about the upside and the story going forward. We can tell you two things right now. The guidance that we have spoken about on 2026, 2027 holds. 2028, which is what we call the transition years. 2028, we're looking at upside versus the guidance that we've spoken until now. This is simply by pulling the levers of bancassurance integration, eventual integration of the Ethniki franchise onto the Piraeus network. It's kind of like a first cut with many more levers to pull going forward, focusing primarily on stepping up. Protection insurance, which, even in the current bancassurance franchises, including our own, still has a long way to go.
That's very helpful, Kalev. Thank you, Theo. Just one small follow-up. When you say 2026, 2027 intact, do you mean the EUR 90 million PBT contribution by 2027? Is this the main assumption? Yes.
Yes, Gabor. So the guidance that we have spoken about, which is currently on page 40, assumes kind of EUR 60 million- EUR 70 million in 2026 and EUR 90 million in 2027 PBT. That still holds as a base assumption. There's no change to that. That's why we keep reposting that page for you guys. I can just preview you, in view of the business plan that, as I said, will be discussed in Q4, that 2028, we're going to be looking, and 2029, we're going to be looking at different numbers. Encouraging.
Thanks very much.
The next question is from the line of [Minares, Filipo], with JPMorgan . Please go ahead.
Yes, good afternoon. Thank you. Thanks for the presentation and taking my questions. I have two.
The first one, if I look at the capital bridge in slide 18, there was no negative effect from other items this quarter, while I think it was negative by 30 basis points in the second quarter. If you can please comment on what were the positive items which offset the negative impact of DTC and AT1s. Maybe a small follow-up on this. If you can please remind us what capital benefit you expect to see in the fourth quarter from SRTs. The second question, on fee income, in light of the trends that you've seen so far this year, I was wondering if you could please give us an update on what level of organic growth you would see in fees beyond 2025 if you exclude the impact of Ethniki . Thank you.
Thanks, [Filipo].
On the page 18 bridge, on the other part, this really includes mostly the DTC effect. It's really prudential stuff that is going on. The DTC effect, the extra amortization that we're doing, mostly mitigated by other DTA that gets recognized by the nominal increase of the CET1. That kind of is a zero-sum game. Sometimes on this particular block, we might have the AT1 coupon on a particular quarter, or we might have other prudential deductions that have to do with calendar effects and so on. We just didn't have such this quarter, and as a result, this is coming to be a zero-sum game this particular quarter. On the SRTs, yes, we've got a deal in play. The RWA economy of that, I would say, is targeted between. $500 million and probably about $1 billion of RWA mitigation. It's quite a large deal that's going on right now.
We've talked about SRTs in the past. We're the first bank to introduce them. The cost over CET1 has dropped below 9%. The eventual CET1 economization, if you calculate it, given the capital status of the bank right now, the cost ratio is below 9%, substantially below the cost of equity. It's a good thing to do. That will continue being a capital management tool for us going forward. Your third question on fees going forward, I guess you're talking about what's going to be happening in the coming years. Let's hold off for the business plan in Q4 to talk about the organic expectations. Obviously, Ethniki i s a step change. The accounting also will change, so a lot of things will change as of 2026. I would say let's pause for that for now.
Thank you very much.
The next question is from Butkov Mikhail with Goldman Sachs . Please go ahead.
Good day. Thank you very much for the presentation. I have a few questions on NPE service and fees, which have been reduced sequentially. What further trajectory do you see there and how maybe the pricing works on this line for us to understand? Where do you see it on the normalized or medium-term basis? Also, on Ethniki Insurance, when do you expect to obtain the FICO status? Can you comment, what criteria? Is there some specific criteria on the asset size or other metrics to qualify for this status or for the Danish compromise? Where will you be post the completion of transaction there? Thank you very much.
Hi, Mikhail. I think well spotted within that line in page 16, where we talk about servicing and protection fees. There is an obvious drop.
This is all due to servicing fees, the servicing element of that. Servicing fees have almost been halved. That has been a result of a successful negotiation that we've done on the contract. I would say that what you're looking at right now is kind of the end game, those 15 basis points between servicing and protection. On Ethniki , it's a journey, right? Article 49, which is what we all used to be calling Danish compromise, has a lot of requirements. The most important thing and the reason why that article exists is because one needs to understand, properly measure, monitor, and stress. Insurance and actuarial risks that one is taking when they are a substantial part of the balance sheet. That is definitely, I would say, a two-year journey until we can establish ourselves in supervisory submissions and dialogues, and also internal governance evolutions that need to happen.
The FICO status has some nominal thresholds as the Directive of 2002 prescribes, but I would say that these are secondary for us right now. We care about delivering the return without Danish compromise application on the capital, making sure that this is a return accretive story, and we can guide for a successful story in the coming plan. I would say that the FICO status and Danish compromise treatment will come, as I would say, as a cherry on the nominal capital when it happens, but it's definitely nothing in the short-term period. We don't want to let it be a distraction in us meeting the profitability targets of Ethniki.
Okay. Very clear. Thank you very much.
The next question is from Nellis Simon with Citibank . Please go ahead.
Oh, hi. Thanks for the opportunity. Just two somewhat technical ones from me.
I see the difference between the pro forma and CET1 and the reported is around 20 basis points, so not that big, but just curious when you think the pro forma and reported numbers will harmonize. The second one is on other impairments. It was $35 million in the quarter. I think $25 million is because of the school building charitable donation. I'm just wondering what the other $10 million is related to. Thank you.
Hi, Simon. The pro forma element of the 20 basis points has to do with upcoming direct recognitions on deals that have been held for sale. That's primarily baking in, I would say, RWA recognition that's going to be happening upon completion of these deals. On your other impairment question, well spotted, I mean, the $25 million is indeed because of that.
The other $10 million has multiple things in it, rationalization of some equity positions that we've done. So really, we're talking about stories of one, two, three million each, summed up to the $10 million. There's nothing major for us to be projecting going forward or using that number as an extrapolation mechanism. Okay. Just in terms of the RWA reduction, how long do you think it'll take before these projects are completed? It's really a matter of quarters right now. Most of these deals have been signed. Within 2026, we should be able to see reported match. With nothing else in play, we should be able to see reported match. The pro forma number.
Super. Thank you.
The next question is from the line of [Boudkieder Steffen] with UBS. Please go ahead. Hello, [Mr. Boudkieder.] You have the floor. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and one on your telephone. The next question is from the line of Memisoglu Osman with Ambrosia Capital . Please go ahead.
Hello. Thank you very much. Two from my side. One more topical with the rotate increase that you're guiding now. I know it's early in the work and plans and all that, but any color on if we should take this increase as a boost to your guidance. What would be the factors supporting this, or what am I missing if we should still wait for the official figures from you? The second one is just a technical one. On the income from associates, I see a big jump quarter on quarter. Just wondering what that. Thank you.
Hi, Osman. Indeed, the RWA upgrade was a result of some P&L items that happened better.
We've been monitoring them over the past quarters. Trading was a substantial part of it. Also, fees to some extent. Given the reality, given what we know right now, so close to the end of the year, this was something that should be upgraded. No comment on the 2026. Again, guys, it's not the time right now. Lots of things are changing. I want to be able to give you a detailed view on that. I know you're all eager, but we just have to be patient until the Q4 results. On the income from associates, again, it's one of those lines. Similar to the question of Simon before, on the other impends, one of those lines has multiple things. This particular situation, we can, again, multiple things moved, but we did have one associate investment in an asset management-like firm that we had done.
That substantially upsized in value, and we recorded it in the Q3 P&L.
Perfect. Thank you.
The next question is from the line of [Boudkieder Steffen] with UBS. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Hopefully, you can hear me now. Just a quick question on the cost of risk. I think you calculate 49 basis points. Just to understand that, I think that's the underlying organic cost of risk. It's at the EUR 68 million. I get closer to 60 basis points. What am I missing there?
Stefan, it has to do with the annualization mechanism that you're using. The calculation is for 49 right now. The guidance sticks for 50. I think it's very important not to lose track of that. To estimate the full year number is what matters so that people don't get confused.
You can take it offline with us to explain through the analyst spreadsheet as to how the calculation works.
Okay. Thanks.
As a final reminder, to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. Ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn over the conference to Mr. Megalou for any closing comments. Thank you.
Thank you all for participating in our Nine Month 2025 Results Conference Call. We will be in the States as of next week and in London in November and December. We look forward to discussing with you all. In the meantime, we are focusing on delivering a strong finish to year 2025 and preparing our brand new business plan to be presented to the market along with our full year 2025 results in early March 2026. Thank you very much.
Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded, and you may disconnect your telephone. Thank you for calling, and have a good afternoon.