Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for YPF Investor Day in the New York Stock Exchange. Thank you for those who are connected virtually as well. My name is Margarita Chun. I am the Investor Relations Manager of YPF and will be the moderator of today's event. You can scan the QR code and download the presentation. It's also available at our website. Due to the formality, I need to announce this. Our cautionary statement is located on slide two. During the presentation, we may talk about forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from the expectations contemplated by these forward-looking statements. Our financial figures are stated in accordance with IFRS, but during the presentation, we might discuss some non-IFRS, such as adjusted EBITDA.
Now, today's presentation will be conducted by our Chairman and CEO, Mr. Horacio Marín, and then followed up by the Q&A session with our management team. Horacio, you can start.
OK. Good morning. Thank you very much for everybody here. I tried to do my best in English. It's my second language. What is difficult in second language is to transfer feelings, love, and passion. I will lose that trying to speak in English, OK? There are some people that don't speak Spanish. That's why I love to speak in Spanish, because in Spanish, I can put my strong passion in YPF. It's difficult to transfer in English that passion. First, I would like to talk about today. Today, we are in uncertainty mode, OK? Because it's a very big, big... No sé la palabra. Very big, I don't say transaction. Negotiation. It's a big, big negotiation around all the world. When that happens, there is uncertainty. What does it mean, uncertainty? It means I don't know what will happen.
Nobody here knows what will happen tomorrow. Nobody here knows what will happen on Monday. Me too. When you are more than 60 years old, you live in uncertainty several times in your life. I have lived when the price was minus $36, when the price was $8, when the price was $14. That is no long term. The long term is energy. The world needs energy. I tell you one figure. If you think that the $45, that is why the number that YPF is resilient. If you think in that number, LNG is not feasible. The LNG in the world in 2030, it will be 800 million tons. If you put in normal figure that, you realize that you need for that gas, you need people. It is 700 million people that they need that energy.
With the numbers that people think today that everything will be low, there is no energy for the world. That is not sustainable, because humanity is always evolution. Evolution means that tomorrow is better than today. For me and for us, the long term is not panic. Long term will be normal. What is normal? It will be $70 a barrel. That is the presentation that I will show to you today. I know that all of you are worried about what will happen with YPF and global prices, we have sensitivities. Now I will tell you in advance that because all our work that we did in the last year with all the employees of YPF, we put this lovely company in a situation that we can develop all Vaca Muerta oil in a long-term price of $45 per barrel.
I'm not worried about the future. What I think is that we are going to develop Vaca Muerta and we will put Argentina exporting more than $30 billion in 2031. I can bet here, everybody, that YPF will be a company that will be top 10 in the 2030s in unconventional around the world. Now I will start the presentation. All the figures that you will see here are with $70 per barrel or long-term price of barrel, OK? Margarita tells about that, so I pass there. What is the agenda? A company overview for people that don't know YPF. It's a long presentation, but when there are more figures and you can read out in your house or after that, I will be very quick, very quickly, because if not, it will be extremely boring, that presentation, reading the presentation.
Argentina macro is very important for you to see. Vaca Muerta, I would like to show you the competitiveness of Vaca Muerta compared with Permian and the United States. The YPF 4x4, YPF 4x4 is the way to reach the big company in 2030. It is very important to follow that, because it is a trademark for us, a trademark for all the employees. Every day when we go to YPF to work, we know what we have to do. It is a way of controlling us every day. 25 guidance, a five-year outlook. I think that is what you want to see. That is the big difference that we see today. Final remarks. After, there will be Q&A. Because it is a long presentation, I apologize that it takes more than an hour. No anda el reloj. I need the clock so I can follow me, OK?
There is zero. No sé, ¿dónde está Margarita? OK? Because if not, I cannot see if it's one, OK? OK. Company overview. First, I would like to share with you that during this year, we they say transform me. I hate gerundio. I don't know how you say in English gerundio. Gerald. Gerald.
Gerald. I hate Gerald, because Gerald is what you are not doing, OK? Gerald is what you do not know where to go, but it is transform me. Why? Because we transform a lot, and we are going to transform in the next year also. What is the big I will tell you what is the importance that we make during the first year of management. First, we have result-driven management. We do not care more than profitability. Our goal is to make value for the shareholders, not to make politics in that company. We are focused on profitability and value creation. That is only the objective that we have in YPF, all the employees there. This is something that you cannot imagine the transforming that we made. The company goes to one direction, and we put the company in the totally different direction.
I am proud of what we get in one year. Why am I proud? Because in the end-year party of the company, I am not accustomed to people taking photos, because I am a bad guy, not good-looking. Even my mother does not take photos of me, OK? I had one hour and 20 minutes of selfies. That means that we are transforming the company. The second thing is the pure shale company. That is very important. Our goal is to be a pure shale company. In a pure shale company, you will see the numbers. We are at a lifting cost of $5. We are making value at any price of oil. That is our goal. It is not to work and think that we are losing money for shareholders. We are very focused on the efficiency program.
In one hour, I cannot tell you, but we are working a lot in efficiency. You will see some numbers. Also, people, when I start, they say that we're very difficult to normalize price. Argentine normalization price is done. We are in free market today in Argentina. Also, we are, we say monetization oil and gas, because Argentina in the past produced more than today. This year, we will pass the maximum production of history of Argentina. What is the difference? In the past, Argentina was producing for five different Cuenca basins. Today, we are going to produce only for one. That makes big bottlenecks in infrastructure. We were, now we were working, today we are making the biggest oil pipe in history in Argentina with all the industry. I don't know how to say in English, el estado bobo es sober.
The damn state is sober. The people that make money have to invest where you make money. We do not need more of the state. We have to be serious and invest where you make money. All the industry is working on that. Also, we have focus on new energy for 2030 plus. I will be working in YPF up to the COD of the last LNG plant. That is the Argentina three. That day is my last day working in my life. After that day, I will resign. I am going to Disney World with my kids. No kids, grandkids, OK? I promise you that I defend your money. I will not take holidays up to that day. I am working now 15 months. I do not have any day of holidays.
I'm not going to take holidays, because this is a work for 24 hours a day, seven days a week, and not to have thinking all of that. When I take a shower, I think in YPF, OK? I'm very proud to be 61. That's why I can think all on that, OK? Because it's very important to be focused. It's the same in export. In export, people that make great result is because they have focus on that. We have focus on YPF. We are changing the way of working and transform the industry and Argentina. YPF, at a glance, you can read that at home. The only thing I will tell for people that don't know YPF, that we are an integrated company, the biggest company in Argentina. We have more than 50% of the refinery capacity of Argentina.
Our revenues are $11 billion, sorry, $19 billion per year. We have different companies, and we are great. We are the best company that you can imagine. We say always we are, and it's not possible to say in English, we are la Argentina al palo. It's the best company in Argentina. People like YPF. It doesn't matter where you come from. Every person that works in YPF is proud to work with us. Macro of Argentina. Why that? Look at that. In the left, you see the share price of the company. I don't care what happened before. I don't care to his history. I'm working for the future. It was 20 years in a row that our share price was down. Why? Because it was not focused only on profitability. They were focused on subsidies that I don't care.
They care to work in profitability. From the day of a journalist in Argentina on TV saying that President Milei decided me to be in YPF, up to December, our share price goes from $10 to $47. That is more than four times the value of the share price in 14 months. Now you know that we are in a nightmare. I don't want to discuss what happened there. I have no idea. If somebody comes, you can help me. Nobody knows what happened there. Why we improve a lot? Argentina is there is a big change in the economy, in the way of working, in the government, in how they see the life in the future. You have to say that that is success of President Milei. You can see the inflation was impossible.
When I was 27 years old, it was hyperinflation in Argentina. In one month, I make $25, OK? We were in that path to have that. After the excellent program, look at that, how they reduced the inflation. The same with contrary risk. Why I put that? Because in life, you have to be honest. The share price is not only the passion that we put in YPF. Also is the country. Why I put that? Because half of the price in the peer, if you put the incremental of YPF, our peers increase half. I would say that half of the incremental of the price is because of President Milei. The other half of the price is because of us. It is a big difference in management, OK? Also, if the country has no future, it does not matter who is the president.
It doesn't matter who works in YPF. It doesn't matter. You have no future. That's why I put that. That is very important for YPF, that we have a president and a government that looks for future, for free market, and to be a normal country. If you see the contribution of our industry, you can first, you can see that we are going to be in Argentina. We are going to be more than 3 million barrels of equivalent in the program, 4x4 plus all the industry. If that is in the left-hand side, if you go to the right-hand side, you will see there what is our forecast of the export of the energy because of the program of YPF plus the others. The program of YPF is a key for the development of the industry in Argentina. Why?
Because we have 50%, I would say, range of the asset of Vaca Muerta. We have the scale. We are working with the industry, not in contrast of the industry. That is very important. People realize at the beginning, they were doubting. Why? Because in Argentina, the last 20 years, we know incremental in the economy. I was working, I have 36 years, 36 years of experience. There was a zero sum. You have to take out the money of the other to put in your side. In the industry, we were not accustomed to work with. We were accustomed to work in contrast of the other. At the beginning, they were doubting. When you are 20 years working in that way, it's very difficult to see a crazy guy coming to YPF and say, we have to work with, OK?
That is important. Our forecast is that Argentina, and we continue to declare all of my life that the goal of YPF is that one of the goals in long-term YPF is that Argentina exports $30 billion. The figure that we have is $40 billion. Why $40 billion? This year, the contribution of the industry to the export, it will be $10 billion. All the program that we have that is above that is $30 billion. That is why it is $40 billion to explain in a very easy way. Of that, YPF will have $10 billion of export. It will be the number one in Argentina. After all this explanation, you will realize why it is $10 billion. Vaca Muerta. The pop is from Argentina. I do not know why. Vaca Muerta is in Argentina also. Why I say that?
Because Vaca Muerta is better than any shale of the United States. What I show here is nothing done by YPF. It was done by Rystad. Rystad is a well-known strategic company for energy and makes that numbers. I put that number from them, OK? If you see the estimate ultimate recovery for people that are not from the industry means all the production that you get from it well as an average. Look at there, Permian Delaware. I repeat, I didn't make that numbers. Vaca Muerta is almost twice better in oil than any United States. Why is that important? Because even we are focused in the efficiency and focus in that, it's very difficult to be better than the United States for the scale. We have the rock. The pop talk with the world and say, make Vaca Muerta better.
That's why we have a pop from Argentina. Now look at there. We have there better for LNG. Also, I always say in my career, the only place, because I study a lot, that Hainesville, and there is a very small part of Hainesville that is better because I want to be fair with you. There is only a small part of Hainesville that is better than Vaca Muerta. As an average, Vaca Muerta is better than Hainesville, and it's better than anyone else. Also, if you put Marcellus, it's better. We are competitive with that. I will take after in the LNG. The last in this, I would say in the left bottom side of the chart, you see one that is bubbles, OK? That was done by Rystad. What does there? In the Y, you have the production by foot of the shale.
In the X is the break-even price. If you see there, what they are saying, Rystad, that Vaca Muerta break-even price is $24. What that $24 means is a marginal calculation. That means development cost plus lifting cost only. They have no facilities. They do not have other numbers. That is why I will say that we are resilient to $45. The difference between $24 and $45 is all together, OK? Look at there. It means that Vaca Muerta is better than anyone else in the United States. The same, and there in the other, I think we needed a space. That is why we put that. It was more necessary. We need a space that to be, I would say, lean, I would say, pretty, nice, pretty. It is the same that in the above at the left, OK? There you see the production.
That's why it's better Vaca Muerta than Delaware, because they have a little more production initially. After, there is more production in any time, OK? That is at the end, that is why Vaca Muerta is better. Here is the first number that we never say in the past. In the map, you will see in blue where we are. YPF is everywhere. They have the best, I would say, portfolio anyone that is in Vaca Muerta. You see blue there. You see the percentage that we are, our scale in Vaca Muerta. In the other, you can see our learning curve. Development cost in 2015 was $20. Last year, it was $11, OK? The same with lifting cost. The learning curve in Vaca Muerta is wonderful. Not because Argentina is smarter than the United States, because we learn from the United States.
I came several times here to learn, because when you have more scale, you are better. You're making one year more than us in one year. I came several times to the United States to learn from you. We learn from you. Because shells are the same in the different places, we make a very quick and fast learning curve. Thanks for the United States. No, because we were smart only, OK? Not for that. If you see in the bottom, you will see the gross well inventory of YPF. That's why our hashtag is Energía Argentina, Argentine Energy. Why? Because we have 15,000 wells. That was, I tell you, it's not because we want to be serious with you. That was audited by the Eolian Magneton. That number was audited before coming here, OK?
You will see there that 15,000 wells is a huge investment. Multiply by 15 plus, it is a huge investment. So many billions that are there. More than $100 billion. I do not know. $150 billion. I do not have the cellular to make the calculation. It is so high that that is why we are concentrating only in Argentina. We do not need more space. We are enough. We are concentrated there. Our own, if you say, for our net shares, we have almost 9,000 wells that are from YPF. That makes YPF what you will see after. Strong company in the oil and gas. Much stronger than no one else could think. That is the end of Vaca Muerta. Now I am going to YPF 4x4 very quickly. Not going to explain 4x4, only to say the way to reach the development of Vaca Muerta, there are for YPF, we have four pillars.
Focus in our most profitable business, oil Vaca Muerta. Active portfolio management, selling mature fields, selling other companies that don't make value. That doesn't mean that active portfolio management means selling. Means selling and buying, OK? There also, we have to sell Metro Gas. We have to sell by law. Also, we can buy in the future better portfolio from Vaca Muerta or other company that we think is within that we can prove that it's better for the shareholders. Selling others, OK? That means active portfolio management. If not, the name will be selling portfolio management. The pillar three is maximize upstream and downstream efficiency. That is the more I love to do that. It's a very, very demanding and it's difficult to explain when you reach better and better and better results. That is why human beings evolve to a better society.
It's because always you work in efficiency. That is, I will show the different things. The last pillar is Argentina LNG project. That is a change for everybody there in Argentina. What we did so far, we are number one in shale oil producer. Last year, we were the number one exporting in Argentina when YPF was not normal, a company that export. Also, we signed VEMOS. What is VEMOS? It means Vaca Muerta Oil Pipeline South. That is a connection between Vaca Muerta with the Atlantic in Río Negro. This is the most, I would say, the more, the biggest investment in infrastructure in Argentina so far. It was done by YPF, Vista, Pan American, Pampa Energía, Pluspetrol, Shell, and Chevron. We are together. The leading is YPF. Now we are working in building that. We are now in the site.
We have the President of VEMOS, that is the guy that comes with me, that is an expert in infrastructure. After finishing, because we, as I say at the beginning, we are in YPF not for power. We are in YPF for making things happen. When you finish that, YPF is retiring, the retirement, yes, from the position, because we do not care about the power. What we care is that the things happen and done, OK? The second, we are exiting mature field, I will show after. Also, we are out now from Brazil that we have a lubricant company that we are wasting time. We are making a little money. It was good for people to travel for that. It was important. It was not important for value. We exit there. We exit in Chile.
We're exiting in any company that we make very little money or no money at all. Number three is maximize the efficiency. We have real-time intelligence center in upstream, I'll show after, and in downstream also. Also, Toyota well. What is we are working with Toyota. We have very good results so far. What Toyota well means is making a well as a Corolla car, OK? We take all the efficiency of the car industry, and we make that efficiency as the way of working in a construction of a well. That is disruptive. I think that nobody in the world is doing that. After, I'll explain a little bit. Also, in one year, in one year, we made $400 million savings and efficiency in the downstream so far. That is an amazing number.
In the LNG, in 2023, there were more, it was more. You see in TV that Argentina is important, that they have Vaca Muerta. But it was saying. It was nothing. It was talking, but nobody could make nothing. Now we have three projects. One is a tolling system. Another is with Shell. And in a very few, I would say, days or weeks, I would say, I would say days, you will see another strategic partner, but international major in LNG three. That is a big progress. And I'm very proud of pushing that. I'm very proud. And we are very proud with all the team that we are working, that we are making reality something that one year ago was a relato, what do you say? A talking. A talking. Now I go one by one very quickly.
In the first, this is only to you to know the evacuation. You were like, I would say, tranquilo, quiet, quiet, that we can make what I'm going to show at the end. Here, I will concentrate on YPF. This is the evacuation system that will be in Neuquén for Vaca Muerta. In YPF, what we know is that after finishing VEMOS, the capacity of evacuation of the Vaca Muerta in Argentina will be 1.5 million barrels a day. Bottleneck is south. The only thing that now is bottleneck is capital. You need capital for you. The only thing is results of Vaca Muerta. There is no more saying that I cannot go because in Argentina there is no evacuation. It's over the evacuation. Now it's reality. How we see and how we prepare YPF for the future with all those.
We have three refineries in Argentina. Luján de Cuyo, what is I don't have a lesser point, so I have to tell. It is in the north. You will see there, YPF, oil pipeline, Luján de Cuyo. There, we are 115,000 barrels a day of capacity. What do we take there? We take from all the producers that are in the north or in Mendoza, plus some production of us, OK? There we have that we have 115,000 barrels that will go there. Transcendent, that is in black with Chile, is an oil pipe that exists in pipe. That is why this year we were the first exporter of Argentina. We are going to export there 41, exactly the number, 41,000 per day forever, OK? We have there that capacity. Plaza Huincul is a very small refinery that is 25,000 barrels.
We can take from production of us, production of us or buying there. The important is the others. O del Val that is finished duplicate today, we will use that from now for internal conception and for La Plata. Why? Because our position, if you see there, O del Val, and after say YPF oil pipeline, we can go by oil pipe from Vaca Muerta to La Plata refinery, where I was born. I am from La Plata. I am from Gimnasia. There are a lot of people. That is why I am YPF, to have something good. Because in Gimnasia, it was never champion in the life, OK? This pipeline takes almost our capacity of that is 190. You say, what happened with the other capacity? We have to take the same Panamax, Aramax, what is Puerto Rosales, Bahía Blanca.
We have to buy heavy crude oil from the south or import, OK? That is a part. What is VEMOS for us? VEMOS is our dedicated export pipeline. From there, why is there? Because look at there, they say BLCC are the 2 million barrels capacity of vessel. You save $2-$3 or more, no save. We are making $2-$3 more dollars of profitability to go there than to Bahía Blanca, OK? That is the way that we are going to evacuate, OK? You know that everybody's familiar with VEMOS. Here, I'm not going to go out and say, what happened today? You know that we have 30% of equity and 70% of project finance. We are going to sign in the next week or next week or so the project finance. We are working even in that situation.
The banks, the big banks, they say that there is no problem. Why? This is long term. Make some values. I would like you to make some values to realize that it's not logical not to have project finance. It's 70% of $3 billion, OK? We are in $2.1 billion. How much can I export this oil pipe? $20 billion per year. It's nothing, OK? It seems that it's a lot of investment. In the context, it's nothing. I repeat, nothing. That's why the risk is zero, because there is a lot of production that comes from there. What is our plan in Vaca Muerta? There they will start the new figures that you never saw, OK? Now you always look at what we say core hub.
Core hub are the areas that we are developing right now, like Loma Campana, the traditional ones, La Marga Chica, Bandurria Sur, and so on. There are two more hubs. One is the north hub and the other the south hub. The south hub, we just signed with the province of Neuquén for new. We have thousands of wells there. What is our program? First is to have the agreement with partners in the different areas. The south is our, how do you say, swing to have the incremental that I showed you. We have agreement with partners. After the extra investment that we can dedicate to Vaca Muerta goes there. We have a good portfolio and was doing in purpose to have a logical and possible and sure program. That is why we have those there. What is our goal?
You have there and you have the production. We make this well by well. It's not doing like this, OK? This program was done by a lot of engineers, geology, all of that, and working one by one, develop, see the efficiency that we can make all together. We are going to reach, in the order—pardon, in the order, no, the number is as an average in 2030, 470,000. I would say 500,000 to make a round, OK? The real number is that one. In my talk, because I'm an old man, I remember very easy figures. From now on, I will say 500,000, OK? It is that number. Look at the number of wells that we have to invest. It is 6,400 as a gross.
Own as a net is almost 4,000, sorry, 4,000 wells, OK, that we have to drill to reach that number. There you have, when I go in the below section of the chart, you can see there the numbers, the wells that we are going to drill. Look at that number. That is why we are so proud of what we are doing. We are going to drill almost 2,000 wells up to 2030 to reach that number and to make the incremental. In that part, because after you will see all are the same. The way to show is the gross. There you have the percentage of the net. You can make the figures if you have to make figures, OK? The next one is the rigs that we are going to operate.
When they say percentage, in general, a rig that you have to say I have half is very difficult, no, because if not, it's not working. We can make that to have an idea of you and make good figures of the productivity. Because in general, when we present to investor, we are presenting net. If you make net, gross is a nightmare. You can make your numbers. In oil, we are going to have as operationship 18, OK? As a total, 20. This is a very important number. There you have the flag sheet, OK? Portfolio two, we are going that is what is important for you, is important for us. That makes the difference YPF, sorry, YPF was losing money here, OK? Also was wasting money. Why?
Because our lifting goal was so high that was not logical for our company to do. We work a lot to selling and to form a new ecosystem in Argentina for small companies to make money in those fields that YPF cannot make focus and not make efficiencies. I can tell you that now we are out, I would say, for me, what we call Andes, that is a real way. I explain the colors. In green means that we are totally out and is operating the other company. In blue is final stage means that we are days of signing with the new company and going out. In progress means that we have agreements, but we need a little more time. It will go there. Mendoza, we are out of the province, is out of everything. He approved all that.
The only thing that we are in the last days of what we call closing with the company, we have everything done. After they have all of that, you have to make the new price because they change the day and all of that stuff. We are almost out. In Neuquén, it was signed, Neuquén's north and south, the last week for the government. We are in the closing. It's almost, I would say, weeks, no, in weeks we are out of there. When you say blockchain with Opportunande, we start talking with the provinces that this one was not in the Andes. Because the liabilities are bigger than the activos on, no me acord, than the assets, we have to do I explain here and after it's very important for Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego.
What we are doing or the law says we are going to abandon the wells that they are in the situation of abandon because it's the responsibility of YPF by law. We have to do the things right, not the thing wrong, OK? That will be a change in Argentina. We are going to put the way of doing as is all around the world. There we start negotiating with the start, not negotiation, but start talking. People and here our Vice President of M&A is responsible to go quickly out of there, OK? In Río Negro, there is only one block, but we are in the finishing also. It was more because it was in the light more because the company that won the bidding after he was not going, I don't know what happened there.
We have to make a second bidding process. Now we are finishing. The other block, we are out. In Chubut, I would say that we are out. The only thing that we have is that we are finishing. There, the other Vice President is finishing with the province. We are reverting one area that is not producing. We do not have people working. We have nothing there. There is no losing during the days. We are almost finishing. Also, what you say, Chubut not operating are three blocks that were sold by the former company, that was four, that is Tecpetrol, that is El Tordillo, Latapere, Puerto Quiroga. We are selling and we have the proposal in that selling at the same company. We are in the finishing processes. In Santa Cruz, last week, April the 2, we signed an MOU.
We are in very good shape to revert all the blocks to the province of Santa Cruz. We are making the same idea of the other. We are going to do what we have to do, which is to abandon wells and some abandon wells and put the areas possible to be continued for other companies. We think in one month or so, we are going to sign the final agreement, revert to the province. We continue operating during six months up to the province decide or who will be the operator by bidding or by I do not know, because I have there, I have 45 minutes. I will pass one hour, I tell you. I think it is important because I see that you are not boring. Nobody is looking, I tell you. Nobody is saying or trying to go to the bathroom.
Do not, how do you say, rompa las pelotas, because I know how to work. The second, now the exit program, look at the important thing that happens. The mature fields, our lifting costs before in 2024 with a lot of work was an average of 16 and the mature field with 28. Our goal is to go out for mature fields and be a company of $5, OK? And the CapEx in the bottom side, look at there how we increase in the Vaca Muerta, how we increase the investment in Vaca Muerta. In one year, that is huge the change, OK? Because that figure does not show what is doing life, OK? That change was huge. We increased a lot of production with less investment and put in where? In Vaca Muerta instead in the others, OK?
In 2030, it's all Vaca Muerta because 88 is upstream Vaca Muerta shale. The other is more refinery downstream, different part. We are going to be a pure shale company with refinery. What does it mean that I gave to you, to the investor, more than, I would say, 13, in the order of 13 that it was last year to take the figure that was last year? I have no promise that it will be exactly the same the next years. I will say a company that makes the value for a future company plus $13 in refinery for 300,000 barrels a day. The other 200, it will be export, OK? Number three. This is our new real intelligence center for Vaca Muerta. That is a big change. We are proud of what we did.
It's the only one company in Argentina that made that. I would say very few companies in the world, they are working on that. I know that it's only super major one. I not tell the name just in case. All the super major, the others are working the same way. What is the big change on that? It's not that you're seeing computer numbers. When you see computer numbers and you look back, there was working for what happened yesterday. That is Monitor Sala. Monitor Center. That was the industry was working always. The big change on that is not that the computer are good or not. The big change is that we are measuring 3-5 million data per day per well. We are looking physics as we make every day in our life. We are using artificial intelligence, two kinds of artificial intelligence.
One for making mathematics. The other as a partner that we are working now to read the database. Read the database means that there is artificial intelligence as a person that I tell you in that well you have a problem and be careful because in the wells that are surrounding there, you have the same problem in the same depth. You make that. Do not do that the other because when you make that, you lose money. This is the change that we are making real-time decision. That is the big change. Not the place with the monitor that are good and are very nice. It is the way of working. Now I explain you also the real-time intelligence center, also Toyota well. We are making the best 40% of standard. Nobody understands that in general if you are not involved on that.
It's played very quickly with the Formula 1. Let's say that in sector one, the best is Verstappen. In sector two is Hamilton. And sector three is Colapinto because I love Colapinto. It's from Argentina. What we made there, let's say there are the best. We are making in the 40% that we make a rank or the 40 best results. And Verstappen is Hamilton and is Colapinto. That makes that it's not real because there is no driver. Choose the driver in the best situation, sector one, sector two, and sector three. We are making a person that doesn't exist. That is the best of all. That's what we are doing there with maths. We are pushing to improve the productivity as much as we can. That is what we are making in the real-time intelligence center.
Toyota well is to reduce the lead time and to have a contract with the suppliers and making those contracts with YPF in long term the same as Toyota is making in the car industry. Look at the results. In one year, we reduce the cycle of the wells from we start and what we put in production for 312 to 215, 100 days. That is more money for you and for us, OK? That is productivity. Our commitment or no commitment, Margarita told me that I have not to say to investors because commitment is very difficult. I erase commitment. I say, OK, my forecast is that we can go to 170 in the five-year period. Drilling speed, look at the change when you all have focus. We increase a lot for 272. Here I explain the number because it's amazing.
For you, it's numbers. That is working every day, a lot of people. From 272 to 360 for this year. We think that we are going to go to 440 at the end of the period. Fractal speed the same. The efficiency that we are facing in the Toyota well plus real-time is that we had to make $1 billion of efficiency and more money for the company in that period of five years. Our goal is to make $200 million of saving and making more money, reducing cost, reducing CapEx per year. That is what we are working. We are saying every time that we work to the real-time to the people that are working there. For downstream, we made this year, we made $400 million, as I say. $400 million, there are some savings that are not recurring.
$260, they are recurring, OK? Our goal is to make $800 million in the period. The reduction, the incremental margin that we are in our program is $6 per barrel. That is huge. If you know the people that know downstream, they know that this is an amazing way. It's not an amazing way that is telling. Why? Because when we measure productivity and we Salomon, we make our benchmark. I think it's in another place, but it doesn't matter. I say it today now that we are in the fourth quartile. That means that refinery of La Plata is, and I was born there. Imagine. We are in the lower quartile of the world of efficiency. Our goal is to be in the first quartile of the world. We are making that. I'm sure that we are doing to do that.
Last week, I went to the refinery. The people had the power, the passion, the goal to reach. When you realize that people are like this, you are going to reach the objective. We are going, we have five in this year, we will have five new real-time intelligence centers. Last week, we made a farewell inauguration, inauguration of the first one. In June, we are going to do something that we are proud of that is amazing. The 23 of June, in general, is 22 because it is the birthday of my daughter. The guys, there are some guys that have bottleneck. The same man. OK? The same man. No, upside one. No, Chupa Media. Come on. Round nose. Round nose. They put that because my daughter was born in 2022, OK?
The idea is to have there a real-time intelligence center that we are measuring minute by minute all the.
Pump station.
No, para cómo se llama?
Pump station.
Pump station. The pump station. Every pump that you have in the station, we are going to see the demand minute by minute. We can make micro pricing on also efficiencies that nobody realized now what we can do. We can see for all around the country, from La Quiaca in the north to Ushuaia in the south, the real demand minute by minute. We can make improvement at night, improvements during the day, reducing costs and make the consumer also. There is one idea that is easy to see. Let's say that that is ideas. It's not that we are going to say. Let's say that at night, there is one pump station, gas station that loses money. We can reduce the people because we are losing money.
You can reduce the gas price, the gasoline price, and make more money for the consumer and also for YPF. We are proud of what we are doing there. Argentina LNG, we have very good progress. We have three. One, Argentina LNG, one is a tolling system. In the newspaper, the people that are familiar, they know what I'm talking about. We are in the finishing time of signature during this month. This will be, if that happens, the first one. We will start exporting in 2027. There will be two ships and 6 million tons. The second one is Argentina LNG two, that our strategic partner is Shell. There are three super majors, as they say, of potential stakers. I would say there are three super majors as of stakers. The project finance, those are project finance driven, driven.
There is no other way to do, OK? Also around the world. It's not possible. There is no company that can do LNG without project finance. And we think that that is a very, very good consortium, very good staker. We are going to do that. That idea is we are in the process of FID. I would say that could be end of next year. The vessel could arrive in the early, in the 30s, I would say in the 30s, at the beginning of 30s. This Argentina LNG 3, I cannot tell a lot, but you can have, I would say, good news in the near future. There is the other, sorry, with Shell, you read there is 10 million tons. There is 12 million tons. There are also three super major potential of stakers.
They will be in a very short term. You will see in the news that there is a super major as Shell that they will be in that project. I am very, I would say, happy. We are very proud, all the people that work in YPF, Santiago, Germán, Federico, that we are working and we are making reality a big change for Argentina and for YPF. If you see, because of the investment, we were very focused that the first one is Argentina and the other two, because of our big investment, are more international companies with YPF. They will be small stakes for Argentine companies because if not, there is no way to finance and to develop, develop the gas in Argentina. Here, you will see the development of these three.
Assuming that these three are developed, you will see that the production of YPF, it will be 65 million cubic meters. And we need to look at our share there. It will be between 25 and 30, no more than that. We think that is the way that YPF can face. They cannot face to have 100 real. So we prefer to develop all the projects of Argentina LNG. I repeat, project finance driven. But with international companies, with the stake that is logical in the order of 25-30, you can make that development and make also more money for YPF. Here is the same. I will not repeat because if not, I will pass a lot of time. You will see it's the same as the oil, OK? The number of rigs, the number of frac seats.
You will see here that I explain only that because I was working. And maybe you know, when you see something like this, it's difficult to understand. Look at it goes up, goes down, the number of rigs. That why? Because there are three projects that are in different stages in years. You have to, at the beginning, you have to invest a lot to reach the peak. After, to maintain the peak, you need always lower number of rigs. That's why you see ups and downs. After, you are maintaining, OK? Now I'm going to the 2025 guidance. For CapEx for this year, we think that we are going to be between $5 billion and in the order of $5 billion. It will be 66% of Shell because we have also investment in other parts of the company.
We need that we are going to be in 165,000 as an average of the year. We think that in December, our production in December will be 190. It's an amazing incremental in two years. When I get, I was in YPF the first days, the production of Vaca Muerta was in the order of as net and 90 or less than 90,000 barrels a day per day. We are delivering in two years 190. We are very proud of the result that we are getting. Here you have Davida. With the different year, you will see different prices, OK? 60s, 80, OK? For you to make your numbers and look at there, it's 60 as an average is impossible unless it goes very down. Look there that instead of 5,000, you will be in 4,000 and less, in the order of 500 million less.
Also, on the other side, there you have numbers for you to have your figures. In the net leverage ratio, our guidance is that we are going to be in 1.5-1.6 here. I would like to be very clear to all of you that in the first semester or in the first two quarters, because of the out of the camp of mature fields, we have to pay one-shot cost. Those kinds of things that we are going to face, I think we are going to reach 2, OK? Or 2.1. After we take out all that, Davida, it will be incremental. There is no more reason to have that cost, and there will be no way to do that. We are going to reduce that net leverage a lot, as you see there.
When you will see in the next quarter's results, remember that we tell you that there will be like a stress in the company of that result because of what I'll tell you. This slide has a lot of data, a lot of data. We want to be clear with you so you can see that you are out. I would like to point out that our policy of the guy that works in finance, he was extremely good. At the beginning of the year, we say we have a big, a big maturity upside of the debt. During the beginning of the year, we take $1.1 billion of debt. What we did is we changed the profile. We reduced the necessity of this year, as you see there.
If you see the profile of our debt, in gray you will see Argentina debt. For Argentina debt, you will see that for the next two years, this year and next one, we do not have maturity debt outside of Argentina. Argentina is a country that now is normalizing by the new government. We know how to deal with crisis and the things that happen there. We know that there is no problem for YPF for that debt because we can roll over very quickly. Remember that Argentina is YPF, is the company of Argentina. I say several times that the LNG is a financially driving project, OK? You have to know that we are going to invest there if there is project finance.
I repeat, we are going to make Argentina LNG happen if there is project finance. The first stage of the LNG is tolling free. We do not need investment outside Austria. There is easy to make as a first one. That is why we are doing that, OK? Fire outlook. Here, that is very important. Look at what YPF will be in the 2030s. What we have to do there is oil gross, gas gross is like operation. YPF in 2030 with this program will be a company of 2 million barrels a day of equivalent. We will be a very, very big company as YPF deserves for the asset that they have. We will be an excellent company with a lot of activity. We are working to be there. Why?
That's why Toyota well, that's why we work in real-time intelligence center, because we are going to be the more efficient company that you can imagine. If you go to net there, YPF will be a company of 1 million barrels a day of equivalent. We are going to have 475. There is the I5000 distinct al otro. I don't know who was the mistake, but I don't want to be honest with you. They have 475 and the other there is 470. The other is Shell. Sorry, it was my mistake. It was my mistake. There is very little conventionals, OK? Very little conventionals. The gas production, we are going to be a company of 70 million cubic meters per day. We are going to be a million. That is an amazing company. We are going to reach that. It's the first time in Argentina.
Remember, the maximum production of Argentina was 850, OK? We are going to be half. We are going to be a company of 1 million. I'm very proud to present that. All people of YPF are proud to be 1 million barrels of day, a company of 1 million barrels a day. We are going to, I don't know how to say in English. The only thing I will say in Spanish, porque no vamos a romper el orto para lograrlo. I don't know how to say in English. We are going to work very hard to obtain that number, OK? People don't like bad words when the bad words are good words, OK? Bad words could be bad words or good words. Romper el orto is a good word. People in English don't like those. I don't know why. OK.
The other in CapEx, you will see there you have the CapEx that we will reach with LNG in a peak in 2029 of almost $7 billion, OK? That is also our big numbers. We are helping to have a lot of activities, scale, reduction cost. Look at the lifting cost. Our lifting cost, we are going to be a company of $5 per barrel. That is an excellent company. I do not know where you can have that. It is an amazing company. At the low is the downstream, if you want to know, that we are going to have in the order of $19 per barrel of operating cost. As an operation, look at the drilling. We are going to have almost, sorry, more than 30 rigs of production.
Our intelligence center that now has half a floor, in two years, there will be a floor, not half a floor. We are going to increment because we have three persons every four rigs working there. We think that is the logical number because we have one geologist, one operation guy, and one engineering guy for four rigs. That is a very efficient way of working. We are going to put that. The other is the number of frac seat sets that in general is relative to the drilling rigs. That is why people talk about drilling rigs in general. The YPF EBITDA and CapEx there, you can see in blue. EBITDA, in green, you can see the CapEx. All YPF employees have the push to put this company to make $11 billion of equity, sorry, equity of EBITDA in 2029. This is with only oil.
Why with oil? Because after that, you will see sensitivity, OK? And from the 37 as an average, more years will be a company of $11 billion. If you see there, we will have free cash flow, I would say secure free cash flow from 2027. Because in the range of investment to have $500 million, I would say I prefer because I'm a guy that comes from the operation that is neutral, even though the number says they're positive. From there, it's 2027. If you wait, you will see when we are going to make dividends, OK? Because there you are looking at, OK? You say, OK, 2027. I will change a little bit. This is for you to have the sensitivity. I know that is a mess, but it's difficult in five minutes to look at all the sensitivities. Look at the numbers.
If you are in 50s, our EBITDA is more than reasonable, OK? Why? Because I explained all during the morning. Because we make a company of $5 a barrel of lifting cost. And we are resilient of all that number. There is for you to analyze at home, the analyst to see there. You will see our resilience. When I say that we are resilient to $45 a barrel, that is what we are resilient to develop all Vaca Muerta, including infrastructure, plants, everything, OK? Everything. We make a good company, a very resilient company, a very competitive company all around the world. If YPF suffer, the world suffers, OK? It is not because we were not efficient. We put the company where you have to put. The LNG is for you to have LNG.
This is a little not tricky because remember the way of working because LNG we have there, look at there. There are five fundamentals in LNG. One is the law, which is RIGI, for large investment. What is an excellent, that's why I say always, without RIGI, there is no LNG. Always I say that, OK? Now we have RIGI. We have RIGI. That is very important for stability, for the investment, for everything, OK? Because there is also incentives for income taxes. There is stability for the law. There is no if someone says you are worried about CEPO that I have no idea how to say in English. Effects control. OK. The law says it's out, OK? We have also the super major partner, which is very important. And we have, we have first class of takers.
We have more than you cannot imagine that I think we made an excellent job in YPF. Look, going to the different parts of the world, Europe and Asia, open markets. We have much more possibilities that we can sell, but much more. We work as finance guys. When you add a bonus, you have a book. And the book had me four times, OK? We made more than four times, OK? We are in a very good position to sell and to sell in a good way. Also, yeah, you saw during all the presentation, the Vaca Muerta equity quality, competitiveness, and material materiality that is very important. The only thing, I explained several times that what is important is that is project finance driver. 70% of there assume that is project finance, OK?
With that all in mind, and also we put a number that is very low, what is $7.5 per million BTU as FOB price. That is a very low price. It's not that we are optimistic. For this kind of project, you have to be more in the side of pessimistics. Why? Because if not, you are making no good decisions. With all that in mind, this is the number that we have. Because of the state that we have, we are going to have a free cash flow of $1 billion and also EBITDA of $1 billion. Why we put that? Because EBITDA we cannot put as the company that is for LNG because our SPV, OK? And so there you have to make the numbers what is for that. And I explain that because that is everything of the company.
From there, I can explain that if the price are in the long term, as I said, if we develop the LNG that I'm sure that we are going to do, if we have all the data, all the results that I explained, this company will start to pay dividends from 2028 forward, OK? Because it's not logical to pay dividends and ask for debt, OK? That is not good for your investors, OK? From 2029, if that happens, that is our idea. I don't have now the program that how will be the dividends. That will be the next year after seeing the results. That is the result that we have for all the programs that we make. Final remarks, I finish, I passed four minutes, so it's not so much, OK? It's not so much.
YPF, it will be top 10 Shell player worldwide. We are going to be integrating unconventional company with volumes, efficiency, with everything as a play. We are going to be a world class in downstream. I would say that I cannot say always the same that I commit, everybody has the commitment to make this company in downstream as a world class. It was not right now, but we are working so hard and we're so focused that that result will be done. When I go to the refineries, the people that work there are totally committed that this result will be done. They are extremely happy that people now work for profitability, for technology, and they are totally motivated. I'm totally sure that we are going to reach that result. We are going to be the number one exporter of Argentina.
Also, we are a free cash generator that is amazing because we are developed, one, I would say, from the rock perspective, the best shale in the world. That is our project. Also, we are thinking in new energy for 2030 when I'm not going to be in YPF because my cycle is hydrocarbon guy. I have to work a lot, and we have a lot of ideas for YPF 2030. I think you will have excellent news also in the coming months. My cycle in life is up to 2031. After 2031, I'm not going to work anymore. I'm not going to talk about energy anymore. I would say my cycle, you have to go out when you know that you are old, OK? At that moment is the finish of my work life, OK?
Now I will pass to Spanish to make some thanks, OK? Because love is impossible to say in English. Primero quiero agradecer, y acá termino, y me voy a poner a llorar, pero al Presidente Milei por darme la oportunidad de desarrollar esta compañía, que es lo mejor que te puede pasar en la vida. Y por pedirme que solamente haga valor a la compañía. Y le quiero agradecer personalmente porque eso no ocurre. Es la tercera vez que me llaman YPF y siempre me había bajado la política. Y yo se lo quiero agradecer personalmente porque eso es una de las cosas que te agradezco toda la vida. Porque es muy difícil que tenga la oportunidad de trabajar libre en esta querida y amable compañía.
Segundo, quiero agradecer a todos los empleados de YPF porque esto se logra por la dedicación, la fuerza, la pasión y las ganas que tienen todos de hacer una compañía como se merece y un país como nos merecemos. La verdad que no puedo más que agradecer a todos, independientemente de la fuerza que ponemos, de no tomar vacaciones, de estar todo el día pensando en YPF. Lo tercero que es muy importante es la comunicación. Ahí quiero agradecer a la gente de YPF que son unos genios de la comunicación, que agarraron un tipo que no sabía hablar y lo hicieron que aprenda a hablar, que me enseñaron tips. También agradecer a todos los periodistas de la República Argentina que vinieron hoy, porque yo entiendo el esfuerzo que hacen en venir. Parte de los resultados de YPF también se lo debemos a la prensa.
Porque si uno no comunica, la gente no lo sabe. Si uno no lo comunica, la gente no tiene fuerza para trabajar con la determinación que lo están haciendo todos. Así que también les quiero agradecer a todos ustedes porque vi el esfuerzo que hicieron por todo lo que están haciendo, por lo bien que, y si me tratan mal también les agradezco, no es por trabajar bien o mal, sino porque hacen un esfuerzo muy grande y creo que es muy importante la comunicación. La gente no se da cuenta lo importante que es la comunicación en la vida y lo importante que es la comunicación en una compañía tan grande con YPF y en la transformación que estamos haciendo. Muchas gracias.
With this, we conclude the presentation. Thank you, Horacio. We begin with the Q&A session. Thank you for waiting.
For those that are in person, we have our microphones. If you raise your hand, the person will bring the microphone to you. You can introduce yourself briefly and then share with us your questions. All our management team is going to be available on the scenario to answer your questions. Also, those who are connected virtually, keep in mind that you can share your questions by chat, and I will read them in the order received. Give us just a few seconds so that our VPs could be in the scenario. Ahí tiene el micrófono. Sí. Sí, sí. No, no, preséntate. Here we have, from your left to your right, first our CFO, Mr. Federico Barroetaveña. Then we have our VP of Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling, Mr. Max Weston. Then our VP of Midstream and Downstream, Mr. Mauricio Martín.
We have our VP of LNG and Integrated Gas, Mr. Santiago Tanoira. Our General Counsel, Mr. Germán Laure. Our VP of Upstream, he's the most challenging guy because he's going to receive a lot of questions about Upstream. We also have Horacio. He's Matías Farina, our VP of Upstream. Our Public Affairs VP, Lisandro de Leonardi. Now, Horacio, we can start with the Q&A. Please, those who have questions, please raise your hand.
Horacio, first and foremost, I want to appraise you for your display of passionate English today. I think it came across as very natural, and we understood everything you said. You can say, or you can tell by your words and your presentation what the great outlook of this company is.
The question for you is, obviously, you have a great promising outlook for the company with a huge amount of growth in which you will attain the opportunity that Vaca Muerta brings to Argentina, but also combining that with applying best practices from management, innovation, efficiency, and technology. The question for you is, what are the challenges that you're facing on this very promising future? What are the, I would say, bottlenecks, growing pains that you want to be facing in the next five years that you are already thinking, and probably you're losing your sleep thinking about them?
What I think is the major bottleneck is work with the industry because all the bottlenecks, if I structure something that I not tell here, as for example, the Instituto Vaca Muerta with this education for workers, I don't want to work in an industry that you can have accidents because people don't know the risk that they are taking. That is the more difficult thing because Argentina was not accustomed to work together, the industry, and sometimes that delays a lot, in my point of view, the decisions, a lot of decisions on that. Apart from that, the drilling wells, complete wells, we know, we know a lot. We have the best technicians that you can imagine. We have the, I would say, the willing to do. People are totally focused.
From the point of view of the operation and the YPF, I really don't have any doubt. From the point of view of Argentina also, I don't have any doubt. The question is that you can, with the finance, I have no idea if you want to give us money or not. I don't have the, I cannot tell you, give me. You have to give me. There it could be one phase. I am sure that we are going to deliver the results. We are going to deliver to you technology, results, technology, excellent way of working, profitability. You will see a company that you cannot imagine. I would like that here in the United States, they will say, and that is my personal say of Shepti, that they say YPF is as good as ExxonMobil.
They do not have the asset of that, but it is as good as them. I see that, okay? It could be not finance because of the country, finance because you have always you have the people that invest, and it is logical. You have to decide between different companies. That is why I think we have to be so, so, so efficient that you can never, never doubt giving money to us, to the others. That is a competition that we have to face.
Thank you. Thank you very much, Horacio, for the presentation. It is a very clear transformation you are making. In the recent weeks, you have been talking a lot about the cost that Vaca Muerta has. In this presentation, you have not touched on that. Probably the question for you is, how are you working to try to lower the cost of Vaca Muerta for the industry?
What is the upside for YPF if that were to happen?
Okay, sorry. Also, I have one hour. I can be one day, but you're going to sleep, okay? Because it's difficult. Imagine that we are every day working. Okay, first, I would say for the cost, I would say capital cost, I will there. If you see, I have the, I declare in medias in Argentina. Also, first, I discuss with the companies, and after I declare, because if not, I think you don't have values, okay? When I analyze the cost of the capital of Vaca Muerta, and I took the wall, I put in a plane, come to Texas, I go back, I put there, and I put the unit cost. Argentina has 35% more cost than the United States. It's not because of the logistics.
It's because of the unit cost that very few companies and very few tools that this today is not reflecting Argentina. Maybe it reflects Argentina four years ago, but not the Argentina of Milei. I'm discussing with those CEOs, and we are making progress to reduce. I'm going to go like this, going down after that, because we deserve, and I think we have to, we not only deserve because it's logical, because of the scale, because of the country, because of what we are doing, it's totally fair that our unit cost must be close to Milei, and it's not. That is the first part that we are facing. After, we're going to face all the things. It's not that we have a big cost because we have, I have no idea, I'm not talking about, I don't want to be specific on that.
You have two more workers or not. That is not the difference. The difference today is the unit cost that we pay. After, for sure, I will work as I work in all my life with the unions to do things efficient. That is a win situation for both parts, okay? Thank you for the question.
Hi, good morning, Bruna Marin from Goldman Sachs. Thanks for the great presentation. You know, I'd like to follow up on this slide where you showed some sensitivity on the balance sheet for different oil price scenarios. If I'm not mistaken, you showed leverage at two times at $60 oil. You know, the first question is, you know, is two times still a comfortable level? Second, at what point would you consider changing your CapEx plan?
You have projects which are pretty much resilient at much lower oil prices, of course, but I was just curious to hear your thoughts on the balance sheet in a lower oil price environment. Thank you.
Okay. I left to be in YPF at 60 years old. Why? Because in my last job, I have no other agenda. You, after, when you are 60 years old or more, you pass different crises. In the crisis, you don't have to be panic. When you make panic, you make mistakes. That is something that you never have to do. There is always a crisis; you have opportunities. Not to be out of your questions is, I think it's not a moment to see to change nothing. We know that we are resilient to $45.
What I can tell you, and I can promise you, that we are guys that understand everything on that. We are guys that were very committed with YPF, and we are not going to do any crazy decision that will be against the company. If we have to change the capital expenditure, we are going to do. If we do not need to do, I am not going to do, even you are right, okay? If I think that we have to do, we are going to do. It is not the moment today.
Thank you for the presentation. This is Bruno Mocarate with Morgan Stanley. Two questions on my end. One more detailed on shale and one on LNG. On shale, you just started working more on the Southub.
What gives you comfort that the results with the full development of the South Hub are going to be as prolific as in the Core Hub today? By 2030, it seems that the production levels are similar across both hubs, so curious to hear your thoughts on that. On LNG, what is the hurdle rate in terms of returns or IRRs that you require to FID the project? I assume that, of course, on top of having the project finance, the company does require at least a minimum acceptable level of returns. Thank you very much.
First, in the South, we call South, everybody of you know Loma Campana, what is the best price in Vaca Muerta is the price. The South of Loma Campana is what we call Hub South. We have results that are very good.
Vaca Muerta, remember, is a sea, is a rock, a salt rock. The salt rock was a sea, okay, 165 years ago. The change of composition in the sea, when you see, you see that they go now to the sea and you see that it's huge. That was Vaca Muerta one day. The change of property, it doesn't change so fast as it changed in conventional. That in math, it calls correlation length, but I'm not going to be boring with you in math. That is very important, that's why Vaca Muerta is so good and the same as all the shales here in Permian. They can be changes regionals, but in very far, in very far distance. All of that are inside the good places. I'm not really very worried.
One thing that all the investors have to do, it doesn't matter where you are, it doesn't matter where you are, the productivity, what is the, they would say productivity is the fast Usain Bolt was running, it depends of long normal. What does it mean that long normal? That is normal to have one or 100 or 1,000. If you make in any and in any industry, in our industry, in any place, the best one with the worst price, they have a ratio of four or five, in the order of four or five. I'm not worried at all on that, in that part, okay? That for the first part, no? The second, you asked me for internal rate of return LNG. I like to be open in everything, but what I learned from the IRI guys that I have not to tell you that.
They don't want me to tell you that, but I can, you will understand me, okay? The internal rate of return of our project, the tolling project, you imagine that is the worst internal rate of return because there is another company that has to make value because there are no stupid people in life. In the others are more economics, but you have to put more money. One is risk comparing with profitability. I'll tell you one thing. The internal rate of return of the tolling is a very good internal rate of return of the one world, okay, of the United States. I would say it would be better than general projects in the United States. The others are a little more important.
One thing that you have to take into account is that the why you make LNG, not for the LNG, you are making LNG for the upstream if you are an oil and gas company. The force or the weight of the upstream is extremely high compared with the other. Even though you have a difference that is huge in the part of LNG, it does not change the weight, okay? We are doing LNG because we want to make money in the upstream, okay? It is like a plant if you want. For sure, I am not a guy that likes to lie. The internal rate of return of the LNG is less than the marginal of oil, which is logical because in the oil, you are selling in a spot way, you can do different things, okay?
But I think that what we are doing is very good for all shareholders. That is why we are pushing.
Hi, this is Regis Cardoso with XP Investments. Two questions from my side. I will continue from where you left off.
That is my one question. So the guy that is sitting here can answer.
Yeah, please jump in. On the why invest in LNG, I think that is a very common topic of discussion with investors. I just wanted to make sure I understood the message. I guess the thing is YPF has such a big asset base that presumably you could invest more in oil and do more of those high returns as opposed to committing that capital to LNG. From your earlier comment, I understood that, well, LNG is not a spot market, so it is more resilient. I wanted to get your perspective on that.
Okay, okay, why?
If I there, I wanted to show all the long term of YPF, but the IR guys doesn't allow me, okay? Because there you will understand more. When you, if you don't have any idea of oil, when you develop oil, it's a plateau of in the order of seven years. If you pass that, you are losing money for shareholders, okay? If you make less, you are losing money for shareholders because you invest more in infrastructure that you need, okay? You are passing the maximum, the optimum, and going down in profitability. I will answer that, that the oil is not forever. What happened there? If I do that, I maintain in the name that in the number that I put there. We do have in us, they said the AI, I think I say, okay, that Vaca Muerta has 380 CF.
I always say 150. If you make 150, we have some plenty of reserves that I'm making value. Why there? Because I don't have more oil and we have plenty of that to invest more than that up to 2029 or 2030. After you maintain the plateau and after years, you start declining. You have to think in the asset that you have, in the investment that you have. The LNG is more pushing for the 2030 forward, not 2030 here, okay? The four by four program is exactly what we are doing. First is develop Vaca Muerta oil. After coming to gas, why? Because you don't have more assets. Also, YPF cannot be the only company that has the assets. We have plenty of assets and we are developed for YPF or for the investor all the areas, okay? That's why it comes after.
It's not that I'm competing. I don't like what the world does with energy in the last five, ten years that they say the energy transition, the oil is over. The oil is not over, the gas is not over. And also the solar and the wind is not over. It's with, not without. That is the same. It's with, not without. It's first oil, after gas. I don't know if I explained you a little bit about what I think.
It does, yes, very much.
Okay, thank you.
The second question, and maybe an opportunity for the others to join as well. Can we get an update on the Vaca Muerta Sur oil pipeline? At what stage is it? When do you expect it to become operational? What's the ramp up like?
Okay, lo va a contestar. Mauricio Martín is going to answer. Hello, good morning.
Yes. About the Vaca Muerta del Sur, we are working with the infrastructure people, which is another vice presidency led by Gustavo Gallino. Right now we are deploying the first equipment. We are deploying the first teams in order to start up the entire project, which is going to be available the second quarter, last quarter of 2026. We hope that we are running at complete capacity during the first quarter of 2027. In that sense, we have a sooner start up during 2026. For sure, it is going to be dividing the entire system at that time. Hola, hola. No, no importa. Hola, hola, ¿me escuchan? No. Okay. No, no, no. Hola, hola. Sí, ¿no? Adiós. No, pues entonces vos podés estar acá. Quédate acá. Después de cosas contesto acá.
We have virtual questions as well. Can we ask with that?
We have Andrés Cardona from Citibank. He's asking about the pillar number two regarding what else for sale besides Metro Gas. Plan for YPF Luz, do you consider any activity there? And plan for ProFertil.
YPF Luz is a company that can grow a lot with project finance itself, not asking to the YPF group. This is a company for next decade also because the energy, electricity is going to increase a lot. We are not going to sell YPF Luz at all. We would like also to have inside, we don't want to make an IPO if someone asks because I think in 2030 will be a very important company for YPF because at that moment after 2030, it's logical that maybe hydrocarbon is going down in our company. That is the first part. ProFertil is a company we make a lot of money.
It is not like it is the focus of YPF, but it is not also that we need to sell. If we need to sell because we need, we will do. We are not, like I say, love somebody. YPF is not my wife or my daughter. I can change one company or buy the other. Today it is not in our program to sell ProFertil. It is not in our thought. It is not necessary to do that.
Thank you. Thank you, Horacio. We have one more virtual question. It is okay. Also related to pillar number two, but this one regarding expansion. Are you considering in your investment plan in organic growth? Are you actively looking at the opportunities of Equinor and Total? That is the first one. For Total,
we did not make any proposal. You can have that. For what you say, Equinor, they are selling and we have our rights.
We will see. If we think that we make money for the shareholder, we will take it. Also, if we realize that that asset is better than someone that we have and there is the quality better, we will take it and we sell the others. That is what we call active portfolio management. Active portfolio management means buying and selling, not only selling or only buying, okay?
Perfect. Actually, that was the second question regarding all the acreage and drilling locations that YPF has if we are considering partial M&A opportunities to speed up the development of assets. The problem that we have is speed up everything that we have.
When we see that there are assets that we are not fully developed, for sure, we are going to sell because that is better for YPF, better for the shareholder, for sure, better for the industry, and better for the country. We are not like do not think that we have to do. The question is that we are developing today our problem and develop all assets that we have.
Yes, Alejandro Demichelis from Jefferies. On that transformation and pillar of active management and so on, you have a company called AESA within YPF.
Yes.
Yeah? Most of other companies, even where you came from, they have a separate construction engineering company outside of what is the core. So could you please tell us how you see the value of having AESA within YPF?
Good question. I did not imagine really.
I didn't imagine that I have that kind of question today, okay? I have the answer and I share with you. AESA was doing everything and nothing. We don't know what we are doing. Gustavo Gallino, that is Vice President of Infrastructure, is a person that has a lot of experience in companies like AESA. What is our view of AESA? Our AESA is a company we have to have. We have, like you said, we can have engineering company for construction and make more value for YPF. The other thing that we are thinking on AESA that was doing the other was operating and maintaining for different countries. We are not going to do any more of that. We are going to do in YPF. Why? I'll tell you why.
Because if you integrate in not integrating, we maintain AESA outside, but if you integrate the OEM with the YPF company, we can make better efficiencies because you do not need to put supervisor for the supervisor and to put people that are not there. Also, you have inside a company that you are. You can have a better decision very quickly, more efficient. AESA will be a company. Looking at YPF as the other company have some company from Argentina, is looking majoritariamente, majority of YPF and to OEM and some engineering construction. No, we are going to do gas pipe. No, we are not going to make a big company in that way. Okay? That is what we are thinking. Gustavo is with the guys of AESA.
They are in the process today that during this year or in a couple of months or so that to define the strategy of AESA like a four by four and we are not going and we know exactly the path to go. Thank you for the question. I never expect that question, okay?
Hi, good morning. Michael Ferro with Pickering Energy Partners. Thank you for the presentation as well. I will echo previous comments. I think your passion for YPF in Argentina was very clear, even in English. Appreciate that as well. I'd like to ask a question on lead times. I'm looking at your slide here. The improvements have been very clear, moving from 300 days for a four-wheel pad down to 215, 50% improvements. Looking at 2029, showing more like a 20% improvement in cycle times to 170 days.
I was wondering if some members could explain what some of the limitations are there to go beyond 170 days. Maybe as a kind of part two, if efficiency improvements were better than what are sort of forecasted in your 2030 projected timeline, would you pull forward activity to spend more money and grow volumes faster? Or would you kind of try to hit your CapEx budgets, slow down, maybe drop a few rigs or pick up less than anticipated to kind of stay on that trajectory? Thanks.
Okay. I'll tell you one thing. The guys here, they say, "I cannot put nude with you because after four years you are going to send me, you tell me that and you don't achieve." Okay, that is honest. That is with things that is feasible, but it's not my goal.
That guy that was not sleeping yesterday because he was very, this guy, Matías Farina, he's an excellent one. He's a pusher, you cannot imagine. He was very nervous yesterday for the question. He said to me, "No, no, I don't want to answer, okay? This guy will go farther than you put there." I promised that I will do exactly the same. I really, my way of working in my life was always to growth, growth, growth. To growth, I don't care the number that you put there. If the guy, this guy, reach, I can't tell you what is the day-by-day base, the daily with him. He's working with me 25 years directly. It's like my, I don't know, my friend, no, because I am his boss.
He is a guy that when I look at him, he looks at me, okay? When we have it, I tell you how we work. If that next month, the 40% of what we said, the best 40, you cannot imagine what does it mean. If we work on that, when we reach, I go to the real-time me. I always say, I do not get a number. We have to go more and we have more. The productivity is not numbers in a spreadsheet. Productivity is the passion and, I would say, the goal, the personal goal that they put, people that you do not know. When you work a lot on guys and you see passion, those numbers, you can go much farther. The difficulty of that, and also they curse me, all of that, they curse me every two months.
I say, "What you have to me say to me," and they curse me, everybody to me, is like something that is a virtue, sometimes it's a defect, okay? The problem of the defect that they put in the structure is that I never in my life, I am okay with a number. I want always to have more numbers. What we promise you that we are working on that, but it's not that we are following that. There is a show that they make, tostado versus resultado. It means eat, I don't know in English, tostado. Eat bagels instead of obtain results, okay? We are here for result, not for bagels, okay? As soon as we reach something, we are more, we are more, we are more. I tell you one thing, I don't remember the number that I say today.
Maybe tomorrow I forget. What I know is you have to be to the seal. If you see to go to the seal, you reach. You never reach something that you do not want. We will push more than the number that they are. The result, I do not know, okay? That is why I did not put there. We push every day to be better, better, and better. Thank you.
I have a virtual question. It is Matías Cattarusi from ADCAP. With over $2 billion in debt maturing between 2025 and 2026 and a CapEx program in the range of $5 billion per year, how does YPF plan to refinance its obligation in a scenario of lower Brent and EBITDA ranging in the range of $5 billion? Federico Barroetaveña, CFO, is going to answer you.
Now, I think that we are going to be continuing rolling over our debt. We are quite comfortable with the capital structure that we have reaccommodated in this first year. As Horacio was explaining, for 2025, we already refinanced the most important part of the international debt. What we did in January was raising $1.1 billion, and we removed the huge maturity we had for July that was more than $750 million. I am confident that with the different pockets of liquidity that the company has been accessing since we took over with the new management team, let's say in total, we raised $2.4 billion plus $400 million in the local syndicated loan market. We also issued in Argentina. We have two or three different pockets of money to touch. The idea will be continue with that approach, maintaining an adequate capital structure.
As Horacio was explaining, now we're going to be going through in the next two quarters, increasing our leverage because we are paying, let's say, the end of the mature fields. With that, I think that we will continue. Argentina has been also very, let's say, open to lend to YPF always, and particularly in the crisis, let's say, if you look at the last five years, Argentina was a solid lender for YPF. Now, on top of that, we reopened the international markets, and we are now trying to reopen the project finance syndicated loan market for VEMOS as well. I think that we have good opportunities to tap those pockets of liquidity. I'm confident.
Thank you, Freddy. Let us check if we have more in person or we have virtuals. Okay, we have one more virtual. It has to do with the upstream.
On Shale, it's from Mileni Carvalho of JP Morgan. Could you guide on the process to achieve production guidance or target of 295,000 barrels per day by 2027 and 380,000 barrels per day for 2028?
Pero no entiendo la pregunta.
¿Cómo llegaríamos a ese nivel de producción? Casi 300. Con los RIGs.
I explained here, first thank you for the question, but what I explained here, you have not to make linear way as human beings do, okay? When we have 2027 and we have the possibility there, you look that we change 6 from 12 to 18 RIGs. That is huge. Imagine, I don't want to talk about other companies, but if you have one company that increases a lot, they have four RIGs, okay? There are eight.
Also, we have, as I explained, after 2027, we have the capacity to export, and also we have the capacity to increase the production, okay? That is why it is a question of physics. The more rigs, more production, and we have. Put a lot more, we do not have the capacity to do, okay? In 2027, after that, we have. That is why there was a slide that I explained, the evacuation of YPF, and I know that I explained the evacuation at the end because if not, you take a lot of time. I did not put maybe a slide with time, but that is why we are following the capacity that YPF bought in all the evacuation oil pipes. We try to fill up and to continue there in the different parts, okay? That is why we make that.
Thank you. Okay, we have one more question.
This is from Tasso Vasconcelos of UBS. He's asking, could the company evaluate divesting or selling any other assets as an alternative to get additional funding if required or coming from financial market? That's only.
The base case is $70, as I explained, and with the $70 or $60 or so, we don't need to change, and we are by financing what we need. After two years, I explained that in two years, we have a better position from a finance point of view. We don't need that. I don't know what happened in the world in two years. It changed a lot. I don't know. Maybe yes, maybe not. That is what is the pillar two, active portfolio management. That means buy and selling. It depends on the necessity and alcoways thinking in YPF, okay?