Banca Generali S.p.A. (BIT:BGN)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Nov 4, 2022

Operator

Good afternoon. This is the conference call operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Banca Generali nine months 2022 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Gian Maria Mossa, CEO and General Manager of Banca Generali. Please go ahead, sir.

Gian Maria Mossa
CEO and General Manager, Banca Generali

Yes. Good afternoon, and welcome to our third quarter results conference call. The overall results over the last quarter were very solid, considering the financial market condition and the macro environment. First of all, I want to confirm that we are all confident to deliver the results of our three-year business plan. Focusing on the last quarter, the commercial results were pretty solid, with a good inflows, even if with a more conservative mix, while the recurring net profit was very, very strong, thanks to the resiliency of the business and a higher contribution of the net interest income. Overall, all the capital ratio and liquidity ratio are well above the requirement. Let's start from page four on commenting the recurring net profit. The third quarter confirms a positive trend at quarterly level.

The third quarter closed at 55.6%, slightly higher compared to the second quarter. The overall result year-to-date is up by 24%. Moving on to the variable net profit, you can see an overall negative contribution, driven by one-off tax charges that we have already communicated at the end of September, and very poor performance fee linked to the trend of financial markets. We were saying that the net interest income is providing great support to the overall results. This is pretty clear at page 5, where the net financial income jumped in the first nine months at EUR 108.7 million, mainly driven by an acceleration of the net interest income.

The result of the third quarter stood at EUR 36 million, is basically driven by an increase in the yield from 0.75 to 0.89. We will see in the next pages also our new projection for the full year and for next year. Page six, total gross fees. Also on this side, positive news. Let's say that if we start from the first nine months, the overall total gross fees were pretty sticky with an increase of 2.8%. In the third quarter result at EUR 229 or -2% on quarter-on-quarter basis.

Let's say that the pretty solid result in the gross fees is driven, first of all, by very sound management fees. Page 7, where you can see that the result of the third quarter is pretty stable quarter-on-quarter, so EUR 202 million. On year-on-year to date is still up almost 5%. Why? Basically, thanks to very solid and resilient margins. In the first nine months, overall margins stood at 1.42%, and we are pretty confident to stay around this level. It's not only thanks to management fees, but it's also driven by some components of banking and entry gross fees, the resiliency of the overall business result. I'm at page 4, page 8, sorry.

Focusing on the year to date result, first of all, very sound result coming from advisory fee, up to EUR 26.9 million. We continue to see a good interest in such a kind of service. Other banking fees, again, up to EUR 17.9 million, which of course is not directly linked to the performance of the market. The negative contribution comes from brokerage commissions, but when you work out the two main components, so volumes and margins, volumes are pretty stable on year-on-year basis. The result is driven by lower margin due to a more conservative mix in the brokerage activity, so more bond, less equity. We have the entry fees down by EUR 9.7 million. You know that in the entry fees you have two main components.

The first one is strictly linked to asset management products, is about front fee, one-off charges. Of course during negative performance it's pretty difficult to charge extra cost. This reduction accounts for almost EUR 6.5 million. The other entry fees are mainly linked to issues of new bonds, structured products, certificates. Also in this case, I think the good news is about the fact that the volumes are almost in line with last year, while margins are a little bit lower due to, also in this case, a more conservative mix. To sum up, once excluding, once stripping out the most volatile and procyclical component, the banking and entry growth fees are pretty stable in line with last year, and even more important, commercial activity is pretty sound. Page nine, we move on to the payout ratio.

You know the third quarter typically has some seasonality in the numbers, so it's useful to compare the third quarter of this year with the third quarter of last year. Starting from payout to financial advisory, the ordinary component closed at 34.6%. Apart from the seasonality, let's say that we are confident to confirm our target to stay below 36% in the medium long terms. Probably in the short-medium, we could be even closer to 35% than 36%. So there is a good improvement and good control of the payout in the ordinary component. In the cost of growth, here you see that the number is pretty aligned with the second quarter, despite a more conservative mix in the net inflows.

This is basically due to some base effect because, you know, the incentive is paid in absolute terms. The ratio is out of total assets, and of course, due to the market, total assets are down on year-on-year basis. Other positive numbers, if you focus on the payout to third parties, you see a slight decline, 5.7%. This is basically due to, partly to an internalization, optimization of the trading activities, and on the other side is the consequence of the reduction of the brokerage, in equity products. Overall, let's say that the payout is under control, is all in line with our targets or even better than previously expected. Moving on to the second component of the cost, so the operating cost, starting from the core operating part, is in line with our three-year business plan.

It's below, in the range of 5-6, also once included the DigiSwiss project. As you can see, in the third quarter, there is a higher contribution of the G&A, and this is basically linked to the focus on all the project to enhance our three-year business plan. A project about data, about new platforms for our financial advisors to increase productivity and so forth. We continue to stay very sticky to our three-year business plan and to invest for long-term sustainable growth. Excluding the core operating costs, in the other components, you see that the sales personnel cost is slightly lower than the previous quarters. This is basically due to lower contribution to growth and lower recruitment costs. Page 11, operating leverage and operating efficiency.

Here we confirm the downward trend of the bank. I would like just to focus your attention on the adjusted cost-income. Once without, let's say, the more volatile component, you see that now we stay below 40%, while the operating cost on total assets is slightly increased due to the reduction of total assets. To sum up this first part of the presentation, page 12, they say that we are very proud of the results so far achieved with operating results ex performance fee up by 10%, thanks to net interest income and resilient margins. Focusing on the total non-operating charges, the overall effect is positive.

There is a positive contribution from the upward revision of the discount rate for the indemnities of the financial advisors, and this more than offset higher costs for the contribution to banking funds and some conservative adjustment. We already commented the one-off charge for tax, EUR 85 million. Last comment is about the tax rate. The third quarter closed at 24.4%. This is driven by a different mix in the revenues, and we have to reset our targets for the three-year plans close to 24% due to higher contribution of net interest margin. Second chapter on balance sheet and capital ratios, page 14. Here, no news, good news. The numbers are in line with the second quarter.

Overall balance sheet at EUR 17.8 or EUR 16.1 higher compared to last year. This is driven by clients' deposit expansion. Page 15, we can see the reason why the net interest income accelerate. It is basically on the bottom left of the page. All the components of the assets have been improving over time, so lower cost of loans to bank, higher yield in loans to clients, and higher financial assets yield. With the cost of funding almost stable, we continue to maintain a conservative approach to the overall banking book, with 96% invest in bonds, a good diversification in terms of underlying with govie bonds, Italian govie bonds below 50%.

Maturity close to four, duration close to one, and the held to collect part of the portfolio increasing over time at 83%. Overall, page 16, we already commented, very solid capital and liquidity ratios. Solid capital ratios also considering that these ratios are calculated on the base of an implied 79% dividend payout, in line with our dividend policy. Total capital ratio closed at 16.8, CET1 15.7. Leverage ratio a little bit lower for the client deposit expansion, as I mentioned before, and the liquidity and stable funding ratio all above the regulatory requirements. Also on this side, I would say no news, good news. Very solid balance sheet and capital position. Next chapter is about total assets and inflows.

Page eighteen, let's start commenting total assets, of course, are down, EUR 80.4 billion, strictly linked to financial markets. It's pretty impressive, the negative performance also of the bond portfolio, as you know very well. Good news on this slide. First of all, assets under advisory on total assets, very sticky, it's good, at 8.5%. Then just a quick comment on the overall contribution of asset management products on total assets. Stood at 68%. This is probably the lower level ever for the bank, or at least over the last 10 years. Here, I'm very confident that once markets resume, we will stay above 70%. The numbers we have commented is with a lower penetration of asset management products. This is an upside, in my view.

Page nineteen, deep dive on asset management products. Very good result coming from the financial wrappers. So the strategy worked pretty well. Lower performance for funds and in particular from the third-party funds. Insurance products, also in this case, insurance wrappers down, but down less than the funds. Again, also in this case, insurance wrappers worked pretty well in terms of client protection and diversification of the portfolios. The focus will be, will continue to be on financial wrappers as well as insurance wrappers for the future. Page twenty, we start analyzing the net inflows.

First of all, total net inflows for the first nine months were in line with two years ago, with 2020, where you can see that that basically the overall result is in line with the path, even if the mix is more conservative, as we already mentioned during also the previous conference call. Focusing on the assets under management, here is pretty clear the positive contribution of the wrappers, both financial and insurance, but with a higher focus on the financial wrappers. The EUR 500 million of net inflows in the fund is well detailed on page 21.

Here you can see that the overall number is lower than expected, but the mix is pretty solid with good inflows in the equity and flexible total return solutions and negative inflows in the products with lower, let's say, lower profitability like monetary and bond funds. Page 22, there is the usual representation of ESG products. Here, the results are pretty impressive. Assets almost stable. The contribution of ESG as a percentage of managed solutions has been growing over time. Net inflows pretty solid also in these first nine months, with an overall contribution of EUR 400 million. Here, as you know, it's not just about products, but it's about our commercial approach that is working very well also in a very difficult market scenario.

Page 23, there is the breakdown of the net inflows in terms of acquisition channels. The contribution coming from the existing sales floor is pretty in line with two years ago, and it's slightly lower than last year. While recruitment in terms of numbers are a little bit lower than our projection and lower compared on year-on-year basis. We closed the first three quarters to 79 new colleagues. On top of that you have to add nine junior profiles without recruiting package. I continue to be confident with our targets on three-year time horizon because there is great interest for the bank, and this slowdown is basically driven to the fact that it's very difficult to transfer clients with important negative performance. Page 24, which is a focus on the October numbers.

I would say that October is a turning point for the bank compared to the last few months for two main reasons. Inflows are pretty sound, EUR 500 million , and the mix is pretty good, even if the overall result sounds still in line with the previous months. There are two different paths in the month, the first two weeks and the second part of October. In the second part of October, we launched several initiatives, and I will comment more in detail, but let's say that we start seeing very positive signals from the network. In terms of advanced advisory, the overall inflows stood at EUR 400 million overall since the beginning of the year. Recruitment, as I mentioned, recruitment activity slowed down to six new colleagues in October.

We are pretty confident to close very close to the numbers for the full year in terms of recruitment, very close to 100. We still see some new colleagues joining the bank in the next few weeks. Now, let's enter the last part of the presentation, where the new macro and investment environment led us to rethink the offer for our clients to stay closer to our financial advisors. We have just assessed the implication of this new macro scenario to our three-year financial targets. Let's start from the first part, sharing how we change and shift and reshape, let's say, the product offer, and then I will focus on targets. Page 27, this is pretty impressive.

In the last few months, we have been working to re-launch a dedicated new offer for the new market scenario, and it's about mainly how to manage cash and how to manage risk, the risky solutions. On the first topic, how to manage cash, we launch funds, we launch financial wrappers, we launch dedicated new solution under advanced advisory services to manage the new context with higher yields. We start a deep review of all current account offerings to be ready to be very flexible and optimize the cost of funding for the next year. We will launch this new dedicated offer of current accounts in the first half of next year.

For the block of risky assets, we have launched, in particular, with a focus on financial wrappers, a dedicated offer with increased protection and, let's say, more flexible, activity on the risky assets, with also some hedging strategies. The feedback were very, very positive. Also in this case, we have launched a project to optimize the platform of the financial wrappers to expand the capabilities, in particular for hedging strategies and Forex. Also this new release of the platform will be launched in the first part of next year. Last but not least, we ask the network to focus even more on the accumulation plans.

There is a commercial effort, but there is also in this case an optimization of the platform that will be released in the first half of the next year. On one end, we are very focused on delivering all the projects presented during our investor day. On the other one, we developed the dedicated offer and dedicated solutions to manage tactically the new context. The results from the network are very good, considering that we launched it at the end of the second week of October. Since that day, on average, net inflows on this solution is well above EUR 10 million per day. As I mentioned before, two different velocities in the commercial activity in October. Page 28.

There is also a focus on insurance because, of course, the normalization of yields implies for us in the medium term, an opportunity, a huge opportunity in the insurance arena. In the short term, we are reopening some existing traditional life policies. We started also this during October, and the inflows are pretty positive, about EUR 5 million per day. At the same time, we are redesigning all our offer, focusing on leveraging the traditional life insurance, but directly connecting to investment and protection solution and ancillary services. This is a very important project. I hope to see the first release in the first part of next year, but let's say that more confident after the summer.

In terms of, as I say, commercial activity, rethinking of the offering, we're very quick to adapt to the new environment. We stood very close, we spent time with the network, we launched these initiatives, and as I mentioned, results and feedback are positive. On the other side, we assessed the impact of the new scenario on financial targets for our three-year plan. You see at page 29 some adjustments on the guidance both for this year and for the next year. You remember well that we gave three clear objectives with three KPIs. The focus was on consistent growth, profitable growth, and remunerative growth. Starting from consistent growth, we confirmed the overall target for the three years.

We have slightly adjusted the goal for this year in the range EUR 5.5 billion-EUR 6 billion net inflows, and we confirm the guideline for next year in the range EUR 6 billion-EUR 6.5 billion. In terms of profitable growth, you remember we targeted recurring net profit, and we projected a growth rate in the range 10%-15%. For this year, we probably closed the year even higher. We have a range now, 15%-20%. This is, as I mentioned before, driven basically by resilient margins in the asset management, plus a higher contribution of net interest income. Now we expected a contribution of net interest income for the first quarter above EUR 45 million for an overall result in the range EUR 130 million-EUR 135 million.

Also applying a conservative assumption in the cost of funding for next year. Now we are increasing our projection for next year with an increase in the range 40%-50%. We have a range within a range of EUR 180 million-EUR 190 million for the net interest income. Then we confirm, as I mentioned during the presentation, the payout and the cost guidelines for next year and 2023. Last but not least, we are still confident to deliver on promises the overall dividends in the range 7.5-8.5 for the four years 2022-2025, thanks to the very flexible dividend policy that we approved during the annual general meeting.

That just to remind you that is made up of two main components, the possibility to move with greater flexibility in the variable components in the range 0-100, and a payout ratio for the recurring components in the range 70%-80%. We are in very good shape, very happy to see this commercial activity, and we saw the results, and happy to confirm that we are all focused to deliver and promise the targets for the three-year plans. Now I will hand over for the Q&A session. Thank you.

Operator

Excuse me. This is the conference call operator. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Giovanni Razzoli with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Giovanni Razzoli
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Good afternoon to everybody. A couple of questions. The first one is a clarification on the NII. Can you share with us what are the assumptions in terms of rates that are embedded in your targets for 2023, so EUR 180 million-EUR 190 million for 2023, which is a big improvement. I assume that the target does not include any contribution of the TLTRO, if that is correct. If you can comment a little bit more on your deposit beta, because also in the previous conference, and you seem to confirm this, you have been pretty conservative in terms of assumption of the cost of funding. I would like to know what are the expectations that you have on these.

For example, we've seen one of very large commercial bank, that is not exactly your competitor, assuming a 30%-40% deposit beta for 2023. I would like to know whether this is applicable also to you. Second question is on the performance fees. Clearly, it's been a tough year to date. I was wondering whether for 2023, assuming a normalization or improvement in the conditions of the financial market for 2023, is it still possible to assume some contribution from the performance fees in 2023, or in light of how the high-water marks have evolved year to date, this is a challenging assumption. The last one is basically a clarification, because you have confirmed the 100 recruitments at the year-end. So you don't...

Your commercial your acquisition policy does not seem to be impacted by the recent, you know, news flow, and noise on M&A impact in Banca Generali. I was wondering whether this, instead, in the medium term, may impact the recruiting or the commercial policy going forward. Thank you.

Gian Maria Mossa
CEO and General Manager, Banca Generali

Thank you, Giovanni. In terms of assumption net interest income, let's say that we have a cost of growth that is more or less 50% of the year. I will hand over to Tommaso to give you more color on the assumption. Why? Because first of all, we won't increase the cost of funding until the big commercial banks have done it. We won't be the first, probably we will be the last. I do believe that commercial banks will move during the second quarter of next year. Our assumption there is a sort of 50% cost of the funding. I consider it pretty conservative, but we want to be in safe territory.

I will hand over to Tommaso. I will answer to the second and the third one, and then I will ask Tommaso to complete. In terms of performance fees, I see room to have a positive contribution next year. I would say that if in normal times you are in the range of 80-100, next year we could be in the range of 30-40, because we have part of the funds that are not so distant from the high-water mark level. We project some positive contribution in case of normalization of the market, starting from Q2. In terms of M&A, as I mentioned, now we seem to close the year with a number close to 100.

We'll be in the range of 95%-100%, closer to 100%, hopefully. The rumors have no impact, 0 impact. Also because you know that whoever would be interested in the bank should know very well that our financial advisors, being the best in the market, must be at the core of all decisions. Any potential interest would be an opportunity for our financial advisors. Also external private bankers or external financial advisors, if they have to see an impact, they perceive it as a positive one. To explain more in detail how we work out the net interest income projection for next year, I will hand over to Tommaso.

Tommaso Di Russo
Head of Strategy and CFO, Banca Generali

Thank you. First of all, I would like to specify that we said before, but it's not an automatic repricing of our liability. Today we have a zero fixed rate. We will adjust the remuneration rate only when we need. Of course, what is implied in our guidance is that the €STR, the average rate of next year, will be in the range between 170-180 basis points, and the cost of liability will be around 80-90 basis points. That's the most important assumption that we have. In terms of volume, we see a small increase of the assets and liabilities, but I mean, that are the most important assumption behind our guidance.

Giovanni Razzoli
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Thank you.

Gian Maria Mossa
CEO and General Manager, Banca Generali

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Domenico Santoro with HSBC. Please go ahead.

Domenico Santoro
Executive Director, HSBC

Hi. Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for the presentation. Coming back to the question of the colleague. I haven't understood well whether you have included, you know, the current forward yield curve in the 2023 guidance on the NII. If not, what could be, you know, the related level of interest income in case rates are gonna go higher and higher next year, accordingly, you know, to the forward yield curve. Then a question on dividend because I understand your dividend policy is very clear. If I follow strictly your dividend policy, we should probably see the dividend for this year going down compared to the one last year.

I mean, even in the presence of no performance fees, your business is capital light. You're gonna grab more earnings from NII, even in presence of, you know, no risk with the asset growth. I wonder whether these EUR 7.5-EUR 8.5 per share over the four years implies also that you can smooth over the impact of this year, no performance fees on the dividend, and maybe confirm the one last year. Thank you.

Gian Maria Mossa
CEO and General Manager, Banca Generali

Thank you, Domenico. I start with the dividend. You know, we gave a target on a three-year horizon, and we have a very flexible dividend policy. We are confident to see again a performance fee next year, as I mentioned, 30-40. In two years, I think I expect a normalization. We work out a projection, and we are still confident to be in the range without changes to the dividend policy. I do not exclude that, if it is necessary, we can also decide to be even more generous to maintain and confirm the target. That is something that we will discuss in the board of directors meeting. Tom, for the,

Tommaso Di Russo
Head of Strategy and CFO, Banca Generali

Coming back to NII, let's say that of course our guidance is based on the implied growth today, that's why we are projecting basically the spread on the average assets next year on 180-75 basis points. The impact of the remuneration rate is 90 basis points, which means basically a cost around EUR 130 million, so to have an idea. In terms of sensitivity of our assets and liabilities, we confirm that for a movement of the curve rate of 100 basis points, we have a sensitivity of around EUR 70 million. If we change the assumption of the curve, that's the sensitivity that we can give to you to make your own assumption.

Domenico Santoro
Executive Director, HSBC

Sorry. Sorry, just follow. I still don't understand. Are you using or not the forward yield curve in the NII progression? Because, I guess that the Q4 is gonna be, you said before, EUR 45 million, right? So if I simply multiply by four, you basically imply that all the extra NII from rates is gonna be offset by increased cost of funding.

Tommaso Di Russo
Head of Strategy and CFO, Banca Generali

Well, first of all, we are using the implied forward rate. We are using them. What we said is that of course, if we have implied a remuneration rate of 90 basis points, and the cost which is implied is EUR 130 million. If we change the assumption, for example, we have zero, we have EUR 130 million of net interest more.

Domenico Santoro
Executive Director, HSBC

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Luigi De Bellis with Equita. Please go ahead.

Luigi De Bellis
Co-Head of Research Team, Equita

Good afternoon, everybody. Thank you for taking my question. The first one is on the new managed solution launched in Q4 and expected in first half. Can you elaborate on the management fees margin of these products, how they are positioned compared to the average profitability of the group? Do you expect to see positive net inflows in traditional life insurance already in November? The second question is on the performance of your products year to date. Can you give us an overview of the average performance of the different family of products since the start of the year? The third question on the securitization, can you provide an update on the reimbursement trend and performance of these products? The last one, just two clarification. The first one is on the tax rate.

If I catch correctly, 24% should be the new run rate for 2023 going forward, assuming EUR 30 million-EUR 40 million of performance fees. Just a clarification on this. On the dividend, if you can provide your best assessment of DPS to be paid in 2023 on 2022 numbers. Thank you.

Gian Maria Mossa
CEO and General Manager, Banca Generali

Thank you, Luigi. In terms of margins, the new products on average are in line with the existing ones, so I don't see significant impact on overall margins. On traditional life insurance, we do expect to maintain EUR 5 million-EUR 6 million per day in November and for the first half of December. We have some claims and some maturities, so the overall result should be close to zero. In terms of performance, the overall performance of our clients is in the range of 9%-10%, with, of course, negative performance higher since more impacted the funds that is close to 15%, 14.5%, and lower for insurance wrappers and the financial wrappers that we are in the same range of 10%.

When you ask under custody, that of course the equity part is probably the worst asset class in the range 15%-20%. Bond portfolio between 5%-10%, and of course traditional are flat. The overall is around 9.5%. In terms of securitization, as you know, the courts, the U.K. courts upheld our demand to receive all the documents to determine the fair value. We have received a good part of this information, but not all. We are seeking a full disclosure from the court. At the moment, the fair value is not worked out. I will say that in terms of performance, I would expect that the same performance as the emerging market debt.

If you want to have a proxy of the asset class in terms of asset class. In terms of tax rate, I confirm 24 as a guideline for the medium term and it should be all. Tell me if I lost something.

Luigi De Bellis
Co-Head of Research Team, Equita

No, just on the dividend.

Gian Maria Mossa
CEO and General Manager, Banca Generali

On the dividend, Tommaso?

Luigi De Bellis
Co-Head of Research Team, Equita

What is your best assessment?

Best estimate.

Gian Maria Mossa
CEO and General Manager, Banca Generali

My best estimate is as simple as that. If considering that it's not me to define the dividend, and it's you know, it is proposed by the board of director and approved by the annual general meeting, I would say that in this year we would apply in an extensive way our dividend policy, paying 100% of the variable components and 80% of the recurring components for this year. Because you know, this is a capital light bank and the remuneration of our shareholders is one of the key goals of our new three-year business plan.

Luigi De Bellis
Co-Head of Research Team, Equita

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Gianluca Ferrari with Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Gianluca Ferrari
Analyst, Mediobanca

Thank you. Good afternoon, everybody. Three questions. The first one is on the bonuses you have accrued for the net inflows that advisors made this year. If you can give us the absolute EUR million amount accrued in the nine months versus nine months last year. The second is a clarification on the reopening of the traditional life policies. Is it a new one or you are reopening some existing Gestione Separata savings products of Generali? The third and final one is if you can give us a bit of color on the EUR 2.1 billion net inflows in custody and structured products of this year, how much is in Italian govies, bonds in general and equities? Thank you.

Gian Maria Mossa
CEO and General Manager, Banca Generali

If I understand well, Ciao, Gianluca, the first question is a comparison between inflows this year and inflows last year, where I said that the existing sales force, the contribution is almost in line. The recruitment, thanks to some good results of the bankers recruited last year is pretty good, EUR 1.5 billion. We have higher outflows. This is basically linked to some bankers. Consider that the overall churn rate is 1%, more or less. There is a strong sense of belonging of our network. A small group of bankers received an extremely generous, let's say, remuneration package from competitors.

The cost of retention in this case was too high considering the margins and the implicit revenues generated by these bankers, because part of these portfolios were basically by institutional investors, so we decided to let them go. There is EUR 200 million-EUR 300 million impacted by this decision of the bank. At the end of the day, the overall performance of the existing sales force is pretty sound because, you know, you should invest more time in staying close to the existing clients and, but we find time also to develop new business. In terms of recruitment, the quality of recruitment is pretty high this year, and part of the result is driven also due to recruitments of last year.

We have plenty of potential new colleagues with which we are discussing the opportunity to join the bank. I'm positive for recruitment for this reason. While in terms of outflows, I'm pretty convinced to see normalization in the next months.

Gianluca Ferrari
Analyst, Mediobanca

I'm sorry if I can intervene a second. I was more referring to the bonuses you will pay at year-end on the net inflows into asset management products. If I recall properly, you have a threshold at EUR 1.5 million or something like that per advisor. If they go beyond that, you pay a bonus to advisors. Given that the overall inflows in asset management this year are definitely lower than last year, I was wondering if there are some savings on this specific line of the P&L. You are paying less bonuses at year-end.

Gian Maria Mossa
CEO and General Manager, Banca Generali

Sorry, Gianluca. I haven't understood correctly the question. Let's say that I do expect good numbers in the last quarter, in this quarter, coming from these new initiatives. Of course, the overall cost of incentive will be a little bit lower on year-on-year basis, but it's almost embedded in the numbers because we allocate the bonuses and the cost of incentives during all the quarters. I will ask Tommaso.

Tommaso Di Russo
Head of Strategy and CFO, Banca Generali

Yes.

Gian Maria Mossa
CEO and General Manager, Banca Generali

Tommaso Russo

Tommaso Di Russo
Head of Strategy and CFO, Banca Generali

Of course, the cash extended will be lower. We have to consider the impact of P&L. There is the amortization of bonuses in five years, so that's why you don't have the full benefit of the lower bonuses in the P&L of 2022. The impact in terms of cash will be more relevant and more important, but of course, the benefit in the P&L is less visible because what goes into the P&L takes into account the rules that we use to amortize the bonuses basically in five years. That's why we don't have such.

Also, if you look at the number of the nine months, the impact of bonuses in absolute terms are similar because there is this effect.

Gian Maria Mossa
CEO and General Manager, Banca Generali

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Elena Perini with Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead.

Elena Perini
Equity Analyst, Intesa Sanpaolo

Yes, good afternoon. I've only one question left. This is about the tax rate. Given that you will have a higher amount of net interest income, and likely, as you mentioned before, a lower contribution from performance fees. Can you provide us with the guidance on your tax rate? Thank you.

Gian Maria Mossa
CEO and General Manager, Banca Generali

Yes, Elena. Just to complete the answer to for Gianluca, because I haven't answered to the mix of the asset under custody. Let's say that the investments in Govie bonds, Italian govie bonds is around 65%. The remaining part is well diversifying other Govie bonds and corporate and financials. In terms of guidelines for tax rate, we set the new target at 24% for the next two years due to a higher contribution of net interest income. Of course, if performance fee in 2024 are very strong, the tax rate will be a little bit lower, of course. We say that as...

With the assumption of, let's say, average performance fee in line with the past and higher contribution on net interest income, the tax rate should be around 23.5%-24%. Thank you.

Elena Perini
Equity Analyst, Intesa Sanpaolo

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Mr. Mossa, there are no more questions registered at this time.

Gian Maria Mossa
CEO and General Manager, Banca Generali

Okay. Thank you for participating to our conference call. Have a great day. Bye.

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