Good morning. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the MPS third quarter 2022 and nine-month 2022 results presentation. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Luigi Lovaglio, Chief Executive Officer and General Manager of MPS. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning, everybody. My warm welcome to all of you. Many thanks for joining us to Monte Paschi third quarter and nine-month results presentation. I'm very satisfied because we are starting a completely new chapter of the oldest bank in the world. The results I'm going to present are a real turning point for Monte Paschi's life. In August, I told you we were working on the plan implementation at full steam. Today, I can say we have already delivered the most important pillars of our plan. EUR 2.5 billion capital increase that allows the bank to reduce its charge cost by over 20% in one shot, and to be in the position to fully exploit its huge potential in the coming quarters. We can start this new era having already booked the EUR 925 million of restructuring costs.
We can present EUR 537 million of profit in the quarter, excluding such one-off costs, paving the way for a future of improving results already starting now. Last but not least, our new approach to the management of legal risk is bringing results, allowing us to reduce both the provision and the risk provisioning in this quarter. Let me now give you some more details from the presentation. We successfully completed the EUR 2.5 billion capital increase in a very complex and volatile market. This is thanks to the support of our partners and investors, who show confidence in the success of our plan. I would also like to thank all the colleagues, the president, and the board of directors who made this possible. Now, after the capital increase, we have a Core Tier 1 ratio fully loaded at 13.7%.
We successfully implemented the main business plan action related to the staff reduction through the voluntary scheme, going well above the original target. From the 5th of December, over 4,000 people, 20% of the current staff, will leave the bank, enabling to realize more than EUR 300 million yearly savings, above the original amount of EUR 270 million assumed in the plan. The related one-off restructuring cost of EUR 925 million was already booked in the third quarter. Excluding this restructuring cost, the third quarter 2022 net profit amounts to EUR 537 million, and EUR 565 million after nine months. Thanks to a pre-tax profit of EUR 130 million and EUR 417 million positive tax effect.
Including the one-off restructuring cost, the third quarter net result is negative EUR 388 million and EUR 360 million after nine months. The nine-month gross operating profit excluding gains from security disposal increased by 13.5% year-on-year. The results are showing positive dynamics in core revenue, especially net interest income. In the nine months, net interest income increased by 15.7% year-over-year, with the strong contribution of the third quarter, up by 12.7% quarter-on-quarter, by 21.2% versus the third quarter last year. Fees and commission income have been affected by upfront fees on wealth management.
Operating costs continue to be under control, with the charge cost lower by 1% year-on-year after nine months, and non-charge costs higher by 3.1 year-on-year due to some positive one-offs in the third quarter of 2021. With the 4,000 early retirements, a structural reduction of the cost base is already assured. Moving to asset quality, the gross NP ratio performing after the disposal of the EUR 900 million NP portfolio is at 4%, and the net NP ratio is 2.1. The nine-month cost of risk is 555 basis points, with NP coverage improving to 47.8%, plus 130 basis points year-on-year and 220 basis points quarter-on-quarter. Now, some details with additional slides.
As you can see on this slide, in dimension, in this quarter, the bank has realized a net profit of EUR 557 million, excluding the HR restructuring cost, with a pre-tax profit of EUR 150 million, and the positive impact on taxes of EUR 407 million. The reported results are negative for EUR 388 million, after including the restructuring cost related to the implementation of the solidarity fund for EUR 125 million. It is worth underlining that the positive impact from taxes is only a portion of the bank ,which has more than EUR 3 billion of deferred tax assets that can be utilized for future profits.
The nine-month underlying net profit amounts to EUR 565 million, if excluding again the one-off HR restructuring costs sustained by pre-tax profits of EUR 150 million, and the positive tax effect of EUR 415 million. The reported result is negative for EUR 360 million if including the restructuring costs. In Q3, as you can see from the slide, we reported an increase of 9.6% year-on-year in gross operating profit, thanks to operating income up by 4% year-on-year, driven by higher net interest income. Cost dynamic is impacted by a positive one-off in the third quarter of 2021. On a quarterly basis, the gross operating profit is likely decreasing due to some seasonality in revenues, partially compensated by lower operating costs, down by 1.7%.
The nine-month gross operating profit increased by more than 13%, excluding gain on security disposal, thanks to positive revenue dynamics up by 3.7% year-on-year. Now, net interest income. In the third quarter, we observed a significant improvement in interest income, confirming the positive sensitivity of our balances to growing interest rates. We reported more than EUR 70 million of additional commercial interest income quarter-on-quarter, equal to almost to 25% growth. Also, considering TLTRO-related income, which is in a decreasing trend, we are showing a double-digit growth both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. The key driver of the growth is the improved commercial spread, driven by the increase in the lending rate.
In cumulative terms, net interest income after 9 months is up by 15.7 year-on-year, with commercial up by more than 20% year-on-year, thanks to both a higher lending rate and lower funding rate. Moving to volumes, performing loans show a positive trend both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year retail, in line with our strategic direction. As far as deposits are concerned, we consolidated in the quarter the previous level of retail deposits on which we maintain our strategic focus, still resisting some market pressure for higher rates. We keep progressing in the reduction of expensive time deposits. Looking at Italian Govies portfolio, the total amount of Italian Govies portfolio decreased due to some maturities.
We expect to reinvest part of the amounts matured in the next few weeks, booking the securities in the amortizing component, in line with our conservative portfolio management approach. The fair value to P&L portfolio dynamic reflects our strategy to reduce volatility in the P&L. Next, fees and commissions, we keep showing a certain resilience year-on-year on banking fees, those connected to the operational activity with customers, with some impact quarter-on-quarter due to seasonality. Also in the third quarter, we are observing pressure on Wealth Management upfront fees due to market volatility. Similar feature for nine months, where, as you can see, banking fees are slightly up the yearly comparison, and Wealth Management fees impacted by market volatility.
As you can see from the slide, the impact of market volatility and the challenging macro environment is also visible on indirect funding stock, which is down both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year. Even on a quarterly basis, we are decreasing less than the market effect. On operating costs, as you can see, costs are under control, for both HR and non-HR, considering the one-off reported last year. This dynamic is confirmed quarterly and year-on-year. The same dynamic we reported also for the nine months. Total costs are stable year-on-year, with HR costs down and non-HR costs slightly up, having in mind, however, the positive one-off in the third quarter of 2021. Now, let me give some details about the charge reduction action we put in place on the fifth of December, which represents the key pillar of our strategy.
As known from December, more than 4,000 people will leave the bank, about 20% of the current workforce. They represent 25% of the back office and the administrative staff, and 14% of branches staff. We have been working since the very beginning to set up a proper operational and commercial plan to ensure the full operational service and effective coverage of customers from day one. No negative impact on revenues is expected. Moving to asset quality, gross NP stock is now at EUR 3.2 billion, decreasing by 24% year-on-year after the NP disposal announced last August. This is one of the first actions of the plan that we implemented immediately after the presentation last June.
Thanks to this action, we improved significantly our gross NP ratio, now at 4%, down by 100 basis points versus September of last year, and our net NP ratio is currently at 2.1%. Positive results we are reporting, particularly on the coverage. The coverage pro forma after the disposal of the EUR 900 million of NP portfolio is 47.8%, 120 basis points higher than last quarter, despite the disposal. Nine-month cost of risk is at 55 basis points, 49 basis points in Q3, and I can say we don't observe for the time being any signal of deterioration of the loan portfolio. We believe that the conservative approach used up to now, and also in the quarter, gives us some confidence about our capability to face potential downsides in the economic scenario, and c apital.
Fully loaded quarter one pro forma ratio, including the EUR 2.5 billion capital increase, is now at 14.7, supporting the implementation of the business plan strategy. The solid starting point of our capital position and the positive evolution in terms of interest income and lower cost base supporting the capital generation create some room for the consideration to anticipate the dividend distribution already with the profit 2024, of course, subject to the lack of specific regulatory limitation. Now, let me comment on the provision for legal risk. As I was saying at the beginning, our new approach to managing the legal risk is bringing some results, allowing us to reduce both the provision and the risk provisions in this quarter.
In October 2022, two extrajudicial claims on an amount of EUR 800 million were withdrawn, reducing the claims amount to EUR 1.4 billion. As I mentioned already in the Q2 presentation, the majority of such extrajudicial claims are characterized in most of the cases by a lack of documentation, lack of legitimacy, and causal nexus. The positive development of the court case for 2008-2011, regarding the former chairman and general manager, was fully discharged in May, and the following grounds of the positive judgment of the Milan Court of Appeal, disclosed in early October, gave room for the reassessment of related risk. As a result, respective provisions for the period 2008-2011 were released in Q3 2022.
Let me conclude by saying that we are fully on track in the business plan implementation, timely delivering the key results as the capital increase, the optimization of the employment, and the merger of IT factory, effective as of first of December 2022. Following the EUR 2.5 billion capital increase and earlier NP disposal, we made a solid step towards the target of a strong and resilient balance sheet. We already gave evidence of our positive exposure to interest rate growth, building already a strong base for the next year, ahead of the plan assumption. The implementation of the voluntary scheme of 4,000 early retirements allows us to start 2023 with more than EUR 300 million on lower HR costs, bringing since now contribution for more than 40% to the EUR 700 million pre-tax profit target plan for 2024.
At the end, we can also confirm the positive evolution of the legal risk according to our expectations. We look to the future even more convinced that Monte Paschi will be a clear and simple bank, capable of generating EUR 700 million pre-tax profit in 2024 and EUR 100 million in 2026, leveraging on the network strength, the distinctive capitalized business model, and the historical and valuable brand. As I said, we are at a turning point in Monte Paschi life, and I believe that the best is yet to come. Thank you, and we are ready for your questions.
Excuse me, this is the conference call operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. The first question from the conference call in English is Giovanni Razzoli of Deutsche Bank.
Good morning. Good morning to everybody. I have three questions. The first one is on the phasing of more than EUR 300 million of HR costs. I was wondering whether we may see most of it already in 2023. If you can give us an idea of the savings on this. The second question is on NII, strong performance in the third quarter. You mentioned there has been a commercially positive impact in this quarter. I was wondering what the underlying run rate of the NII is, excluding any TLTRO benefit, so that we can have an idea of the starting base for the future in light of the increase in the rates.
We made this exercise for all the banks, so asking what the NII guidance is for 2023, can you share with us your thoughts on this? Last point on the legal risks. I've seen that you have mentioned that you have released some provisions in the third quarter. If I'm not mistaken, there should be something in the region of, you know, EUR 100 million, if I'm not mistaken. Can you confirm this amount? On legal risk, sorry if I ask you this, but it's not really my subject. I saw in the offering circular that the agenda of the hearings of some of the trials is relatively diluted in time, so to say.
I was wondering whether time can play in favor of Monte Paschi, on these pending trials, so to say. Thank you.
Hello? Sorry, already. Okay, I will take the question about HR and the legal risk. About HR cost, as I was mentioning, we not only are going to have the benefit immediately in 2023, but already in December, the pro rata is going to impact positively our P&L. The logic behind the concept of turning point, I was saying this quarter, is because already the last quarter of this year will be a clean quarter, where in some ways you can have a view on what is really the potential of the bank. We are going already, as I mentioned, to account pro rata for one month for the benefit of the exit of the 4,000 people.
On legal risk, yes, the release of provision was slightly below EUR 100 million, considering also the time value. As I mentioned, we are keeping a very conservative approach also in the concept of this release. Because you correctly pointed out that we can also have some additional benefit coming from the status of limitation that, in some way , can be considered for some of the cases that are currently ongoing in the court. This bulk of residual provision, I can just confirm that it is a potential buffer that, conservatively, we want to keep, but it should be a positive factor to take into consideration while we are considering the potential value of Monte Paschi. I will ask Andrea to say something about net interest.
Yeah. Thank you. On net interest income, as you can see on page 8 of our presentation, the contribution of the TLTRO was EUR 150 million in the nine months. For the full- year, we expect something between EUR 150 million and EUR 160 million, roughly. In terms of dynamics and guidance, yeah, we're still incorporating the higher interest rate in our net interest income. We would expect the fourth quarter to increase over the third quarter. All in all, in terms of guidance, if you refer to our 2024 and 2026 targets, you can assume that the 2022 and 2023 are higher than 2024 and 2026, respectively, or already now as guidance.
When looking at the year-on-year dynamics, so 2023 over 2022, you have to take into consideration that the TLTRO contribution will disappear and become negative in 2023. This reduces for the first year our NII sensitivity. As we move forward, we will have a slightly higher cost of funding. Let's say the rate of improvement will be less steep than we had in 2022.
The next question, gentlemen, comes from Corinne Cunningham of Autonomous.
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for the call. Could I ask some questions about your funding plans, please, and then also on capital? You have a Tier 2 bond that's callable in January. Do you have any thoughts as to how you might tackle that one? And then also on MREL, I didn't notice anything in your slides or press release on MREL. If you could update us as to what the position there is. Just on capital, you're showing a slight improvement in RWAs quarter-over-quarter. But what would be the target or the expected RWA inflation when you do finally book the TRIM impact? Thank you very much.
I'll start with the Tier 2. We have, let's say a Tier 2 callable in January. Let's say as a stance, in the future we would tend to be as market friendly as possible. Having said that, we will have, when deciding whether to call or not the Tier 2, we will have to look at the trade-off with regard to the P&L impact. We will look at market conditions while approaching the date and take a decision. As stated that at the moment, let's say conditions are not particularly constructive. On this, we will take a decision where we are closer to the potential call date.
As regards the funding plan, for the time being, the funding plan that was communicated in the context of the strategic plan presentation is confirmed, and the funding plan is likely more skewed in the first two years. Having said that, we will most likely fine-tune our, let's say, MREL-related issuances, taking into consideration the new capital level, the RWA dynamics, and, let's say, the potential partial reimbursement of the TLTRO given the new terms and conditions that might have an impact on the tier requirements. Final point on the RWAs.
Again, for the time being, we are confirming the regulatory adjustments in the plan, but there might be the case, as you can see, looking at the third quarter numbers that RWA inflation could be lower than expected. All in all, as you can see, our capital ratios are at the moment better than what was originally researched in the plan. This might have an impact again, also on the MREL issuances.
Thank you. Anything on the timing of when TRIM might be booked? Would that be in Q4 or not until next year?
Actually, this was expected Q4 and might be postponed to Q1 2023. Anyway, it is approaching. Actually on this, we are, let's say, waiting for, let's say, the final outcome. All in all, let's say the outcome, so the implications related to this implementation models might be lower rather than higher than expected.
Thank you very much.
The next question is from Hugo Cruz of KBW.
Hi. Thank you very much for the time. Can you give a little bit more guidance on the NII sensitivity? I don't know if you can give guidance for 2% ECB rate or, you know, if rates go up another 100 basis points, how much would that mean for your NII? Because obviously there's a lot of moving parts on NII. If you could give us a little bit more help, be great. A question on legal provisions.
Can you give us an amount, at least, you know. It's hard to. Obviously, I know you cannot give split legal provisions by buckets, but if you have a total amount for legal provisions, including non-judicial claims or, you know, total number for legal provisions for judicial claims would be very helpful. Then finally on DTAs. You know, you've already booked something now. What's your guidance for, you know, Q4 and 2023? Do you think you can also book additional DTA reassessment? That's it for me. Thank you.
All right. I will start with the legal provision, right? We are not disclosing the split. What I can say that, as I was mentioning before, we believe that we feel very comfortable about the level of provision and the
We are monitoring the evolution of all these cases, and we are confident also that we can even face a positive evolution again on that. Now guidance net interest, I will ask Andrea to take over.
First of all, let me reiterate what I said before. We gave 24.6 targets, and first of all, you can refer to them and assume that 22 NII is higher than 24 target and 23 is higher than 26 target, and this gives you already an absolute number reference. In terms of sensitivity, the EUR 150 million sensitivity for a 100 basis points parallel shift of the curve is, in raw terms, confirmed, with two caveats. I mean, the first one is that for the first year, the sensitivity is reduced and lower than EUR 100 million because of the change of the TLTRO terms and conditions.
The second caveat is that as the curve moves up, the sensitivity reduces because then you start adding some impact on the cost of funding. As regards the question on DTA, broadly, we confirm the trend that we presented in our strategic plan. We would expect, let's say material write- up in 2024. The reason why we are saying now that we are expecting a material write- up in 2024 is that, in a conservative way, we assess now the DTAs, taking into consideration the only specific period of 2022, 2023, and 2024, and then we will update the projections in 2024. Having said that, we will have, as we move forward, also the time value effect on the assessments of DTAs.
Of course, let's say the projections turn out to be better moving forward than the plan, and that this might generate further upside on the DTA reassessment. Please take into consideration that we still have that EUR 3.5 billion after, let's say, the write- up. We still have EUR 3.5 billion DTAs on the balance sheet, which is quite a relevant amount. Thank you very much.
For any further questions, please press star and one on your touchtone telephone. Mr. Lovaglio. Oh, actually, we do have a question from Arnaud de Bourrousse of Octo Finances.
Yes, good morning, and thank you for the call and for taking my question. I have just a couple of questions. The first one relates to the state-guaranteed loans. I was wondering if you are also confident in the evolution of the credit quality, and if you can remind us what their maturity is . Is it three years? Maybe if it's three years, it means that next year you will have a EUR 6 billion, which will mature. My second question relates to the capital increase. At the time, the English press pointed out about potential concerns from the EC regarding the possible existence of state aid in relation to the amount of the fees received by the banks guaranteeing the operation. I was wondering, what is your view on this topic?
Is it non-relevant, or doesn't it concern even you because it's a potential discussion between the EC and the state, not the bank? Thank you very much.
Okay. About the process of capital increase, I think he already understood properly, saying that it's not something that concerns the bank because DG COMP is mainly dealing with the government. We are just involved with the commitments that are in some way connected with the bank, but it's part of the agreement that is exclusively involving the Italian Republic and the European Commission. It's not an issue at all for the bank. Now, as far as the state guarantee, what we were observing already, and it's something that we are monitoring closely, we started from EUR 10 billion. We already have EUR 3 billion repaid, and we didn't observe any issue in terms of portfolio deterioration.
We can say that even observing the existing residual portfolio that we are monitoring closely with a dedicated team of people, once that the portfolio is becoming without guarantee, we are seeing that the trend in terms of the default even below the normal trend of the bank. We don't expect any deterioration coming from this kind of portfolio. In any way, the default rate is absolutely in line with the level of the bank that I was just mentioning before. It's showing a very positive trend also in this quarter, enabling us also to keep some conservative approaches in view of the potential deterioration that can come from the economic environment.
Okay, thank you very much.
We have a follow-up question from Mr. Giovanni Razzoli of Deutsche Bank.
Yes, thank you for taking my follow-up. A question for Andrea, just to be clear, you said that in 2023 you do expect an NII above the 2026 target, that is, EUR 1.47 billion. Is my understanding correct, Andrea? Thank you.
Yes, this is correct.
Yeah, above the plan.
Mr. Razzoli, has your question been answered, sir?
Thank you. I understand no more questions. Anyway, we are available for any further question can be raised in the coming days. Thank you very much, and see you at the next presentation.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over and you may disconnect your telephone.