Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. (BIT:BMPS)
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Apr 27, 2026, 5:37 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q1 2024

May 7, 2024

Operator

Good morning. This is the Chorus Call Conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the MPS Group First Quarter 2024 results presentation. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Luigi Lovaglio, CEO of MPS. Please go ahead, sir.

Luigi Lovaglio
CEO, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena

Thanks. Good morning, everybody. Many thanks for joining us for Monte dei Paschi di Siena 2024 first quarter results presentation. The first quarter results give evidence that Monte Paschi engine is working at full speed, with the new organization and management team successfully driving the continuous growth of the commercial activity, in particular visible in the fee and commission income dynamics. We started 2024 with record operating performance, which showed Monte Paschi's strength competing the market thanks to the value of our people and the power of our network. Our capital ratio at 18.2% proforma confirms that Monte Paschi is steadily at the top of the banking system and up to remunerate our shareholders, accruing already in the first quarter dividends to distribute next year. Let me now move on to some key highlights.

Net profit in the first three months of 2024 reached EUR 333 million, with a 41% year-on-year increase driven by a further improvement in operating performance. That is visible in the gross operating profit crossing EUR 550 million in the quarter, higher by 33% compared to the last year and by 8.5% quarter-on-quarter, supported by both higher revenues and lower costs in each time horizon. Cost income ratio has further improved to 46% versus 49% in Q4 2023 and 53% in Q1 2023. Revenues above EUR 1 billion in the first quarter and higher by 15% compared with last year, with 2% quarterly dynamics supported by a strong 26% growth in wealth management fees and resilient net interest income.

Operating costs were down both year-over-year, minus 0.6%, and also compared with the previous quarter, minus 4.7% thanks to non-HR cost ongoing optimization and processes streamlining, minus 11% year-over-year and 4.1% quarter-over-quarter. The dynamic of costs of non-HR fully offsetting the impact of labor contract renewal and inflation. In the first three months, we increased the volumes of the commercial savings by an additional EUR 3.8 billion thanks to the continuously growing commercial activity. Also, net performing loans volumes are showing a positive dynamic of 0.8% compared to December 2023. As regards to asset quality, the cost of risk, Gross NPE ratio, and Net NPE ratio were kept substantially in line with the end-of-the-year levels, while the NPE coverage improved to 49.5%, 40 basis points higher than at the end of 2023.

Strong liquidity position is maintained in the quarter, with counterbalancing capacity close to EUR 30 billion and reliance on ECB funding reduced to 9%. LCR about 160% and net stable funding ratio at 129%. Final capital quarter one after First Quarter at 18.2% pro forma, including current period of net profit, net of 50% dividend payout, confirming the strength of our balance sheet and positioning the bank among the highest in Europe in terms of capital. Let's go now through more details of our results. As I have just mentioned, after three months, we reported a profit of EUR 333 million. The result is by 41% higher compared to the last year, and it is fully driven by strong operating performance and commercial activity. Quarter-on-quarter comparison is affected by extraordinary release of provision related to legal risk and end-of-the-year positive net tax reported in the Fourth Quarter results.

It should be mentioned that in this quarter, we recognized the full amount of current year charged for systemic fund, almost EUR 75 million, so no additional contribution is expected to be charged in the coming quarters. Moving on to the next slide, where we are presenting the net operating profit at the level of EUR 444 million, with more than 40% increase year-over-year and almost 20% increase in the quarter. It came thanks to the improvement in all main P&L lines, revenues, costs, and provisions. We are confident that we have achieved the capability to generate profitability in a sustainable way, and we would like to preserve and even improve such capability going forward. Let's move on to the gross operating profit that reached EUR 551 million in the quarter, higher by 33% compared to last year and by 8.5% quarter-over-quarter.

Drivers of the growth were both revenues crossing the record level of EUR 1 billion, up by 15% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter, and cost decreasing both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. Fees and commission were the key driver of the quarterly growth of revenues, allowing, with EUR 30 million contribution, to offset the expected net interest income decrease. The structural cost reduction, together with increasing revenues, allowed to further reduce the cost income ratio down to 46% after First Quarter, well below the 53% reported in March 2023 and below 46% we reported in December. Now, let's have a look at the net interest income evolution. In the First Quarter, net interest income reached the level of EUR 587 million, increasing by 16% year-on-year, only marginally lower in the previous quarter.

The quarterly dynamic, 2.8% negative, reflects the deposit volume expansion and the positive evolution of net ECB exposure, allowing to benefit of the 4% deposit rate. Quarterly commercial spreads remain resilient. The net interest income trend is in line with our guidance for the full year. That means for 2024, a level of net interest income is slightly below the previous year. Anyway, as we were already mentioned, it will be offset by the growth of fees and commission that will enable us to keep the overall total revenues 2024 slightly up compared to last year, confirming, therefore, our beginning of the year guidance. Now, looking at the volumes, let's start with loans.

As you can see, performing loans volumes show a positive development in small and medium enterprise portfolios, allowing to report quarterly growth of 0.8% quarter-on-quarter and also to gain some market share according to preliminary market data. Moving on to savings, as you can see on the slide, commercial customers' direct and indirect savings increased since the beginning of the year by EUR 3.8 billion, plus 2.2% quarter-on-quarter, and by more than EUR 11 billion in the last 12 months, plus 7.8% year-on-year, supported by the continuously growing commercial activity. As I mentioned earlier, we observe a growth in all categories: in asset under custody, in asset under management, and in deposit. Our clients confirmed their trust in Monte Paschi with a higher deposit, counting also on a quality asset such as Banca Widiba.

At the same time, I believe that, as I was mentioning at the beginning, the new organization and new management team are already bringing acceleration of the commercial pace. Now, let me give you a quick update on our portfolio of Italian Govs. The overall portfolio of Govs is basically stable, with progressive remix towards amortized costs in line with the business plan approach. We want to minimize the potential impact of interest rates and create a spread volatility on banks' capital. It may be also worth mentioning that the duration of fair value through OCI portfolio is reduced now to 2.6 years following the reinvestment of the maturities. Now, moving on to the fees and commission income. Total fees and commission income in the First Quarter amounted to EUR 365 million and were higher by 9% quarter-on-quarter and by 10% year-on-year.

These excellent results were driven by a sharp +26% increase in management and advisory fees in the quarter, +18% year-on-year, supported by a revamp of placement activity. Commercial banking fees are up by 2.9% year-on-year, with a quarterly dynamic reflecting year-end seasonality. Let me underline once again that our capability to generate fees from wealth management products is historically distinctive of Monte Paschi, and it was well advantaged of Monte Paschi, and it was well highlighted already at the time of launching the Business Plan 2022-2026. The performance of the quarter is reinforcing our belief to be capable to offset, with fees income, the interest rate decrease impact in the coming years. Now, let's move on to cost.

Operating costs in the First Quarter amounted to EUR 462 million and were lower by 4.7% quarter-on-quarter and by 0.6% year-on-year, thanks to both lower non-HR costs and HR costs. Non-HR costs lower by EUR 20 million year-on-year enable us to offset the increase of HR costs affected by the impact on new labor contracts signed in November last year, bringing the total cost to a level lower than the previous year. We keep being focused on absolute cost targets and proactive cost management, delivering excellent results. We are leveraging an efficient cost governance approach and managerial expertise in this respect and without constraining investment. Efficient cost management and fees income generation capability are our main tools to support our operational profitability when interest rates will normalize. Now, let's move to asset quality slide.

Gross NPE stock, Gross NPE ratio, and Net NPE ratio are almost at the same level as in December 2023, and we want to further improve our control on the inflow NPE, setting also specific projects aiming at further improving our internal workout capability. While the other main ratio, as I was mentioning, and stock are almost at the same level at the end of the year, we reported an improvement of the coverage ratio to 49.5% plus 0.40% quarter-on-quarter. The cost of risk in the quarter is stable at 54 basis points in line with the guidance of 2024. Still, no particular signs of portfolio deterioration have been observed. That's why we feel comfortable to confirm our guidance of the cost of risk for 2024 year not to be higher than in 2023. Let me now comment on banks' funding and liquidity.

The soundness of our liquidity position is confirmed also in the quarter. An unencumbered counterbalancing capacity is close to EUR 30 billion. Liquidity coverage ratio stays above 160% and net stable funding ratio is stable around 130%. ECB funding has been further reduced, representing now 9% of total liabilities, which is already substantially below the business plan target of 13%. Now, let's move on capital. Quarter one ratio reached 18.2% pro forma, including first quarter net profit and the pro rata accrual of dividend for 2024, according to a payout ratio of 50% on pre-tax profit. Our buffer on Tier 1 requirement is exceeding 760 basis points, which translates to the excess of capital of approximately EUR 3.7 billion. Just for illustrative purposes, if we consider an average of Quarter one between 13.5% and 14%, our return on tangible equity would be close to 70%.

The remarkable level of our capital ratio is confirming the capability of the bank to organically generate capital and reflect the strength of banks' balance sheet and banks' solidity. Let me just remind that we are still using a relatively low share of DTAs from tax losses carried forwards, but this share is expected to increase already from next year, boosting the effect of our organic capital generation. We are right now at the conclusion, but let me shortly comment on the extraordinary litigation, as we were anticipating in the previous presentation, which switched to ordinary mode on management and reporting regarding this kind of topic. Petitum is stable compared to December 2023, and the positive trend of civil sentences continues to be coming in favor of the bank. Now, let's come back to the presentation, and let me recap the key messages on the First Quarter results.

We had a very good start of the year with EUR 333 million net income driven by solid operating performance. Effectiveness of commercial activity is reflected in volumes, in particular in the growth of savings. Cost of risk is in line with expectations at 54 basis points. Strong capital position, which set one fully loaded ratio at a 3.2 proforma, including First Quarter 2024 net profit, net of the accrual for dividend distribution. Guidance for 2024 pre-tax profit is confirmed to be above about EUR 1.3 billion, which is the results reported last year adjusted for the release of provision for legal risk. An update on medium term strategic target will be given in the context of the Second Quarter results presentation, considering that we are ahead of our 2022-2026 business plan objective.

Let me just conclude the presentation by saying that even if Monte Paschi engine is already going at full speed, we are committed to push further because our people are highly motivated, and we know the competitive scenario very well. We know as well that we have to keep improving our operating performance in order to properly remunerate in a sustainable way our shareholders. So we are very well trained to move forward. Thank you, and we are ready to answer your question.

Operator

Thank you. This is the Chorus Call Conference Operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on your Touch-Tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time.

The first question is from Azzurra Guelfi, Citi. Please go ahead.

Azzurra Guelfi
Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Hi. Good morning. Two questions for me. One is on your net interest income. If you can give us some color on the development of 2024 and 2025, also in light of the trend that you are showing, which are quite different from the industry. You are seeing deposit growth, but a funding rate that is increasing more than the industry. So I just wanted to see if you can give us some color on this funding development as well, not just on the lending side, which you are actually showing again something different from the sector with loan growth. And I guess this is all part of the normalization and coming back because the capital position is now addressed.

The second question is related to if you want to fast forward a little bit, and I don't know if you can comment already because you said that you will have a new plan coming, but do you think that there is any area of your balance sheet that needs further strengthening or any area that could be subject to additional restructuring in order to improve profitability in the medium term once rate starts to normalize? Thank you.

Luigi Lovaglio
CEO, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena

Okay. Let's start with interest income evolution. As we were mentioning, we wanted to increase our deposit base for a simple reason because normally you achieve the result of the year if you get good results after six months.

So the increase of deposit was a sort of goal we wanted to put in place and to achieve because thanks to deposit, then we can switch to asset management products and in some way additionally fueling the generation of fees income. Clearly, as I was mentioning in the beginning, we are collecting part of this deposit from retail, part from small business. They are mainly deposited at sight, and thanks to that, we are also increasing commission connected with the transactional activity of the company. And as we have excess of liquidity, a positive net position ECB, we have a sort of advantage by just placing to ECB, gaining the difference between the two rates, what we are paying to customers and what we are getting from ECB.

So, from an economic point of view, yes, we are observing an increase of cost, but net-net is more than giving more than a positive impact on P&L. In the first quarter, for example, the dynamic of net profit was a sort of combination of slight decrease of the commercial and interest income, higher cost of bonds, partially both this negative impact partially compensated by higher contribution of ECB net position. So, I think it is important to underline that the trend of net interest income is really going according to what were our plans for this year. And we are sure that in the second part of the year, we will better fix the need in terms of volumes connected with switching to asset management product, and we can also optimize additionally the cost of funding.

So first part of the year, a bit more aggressive, but anyway, always in positive area. Second part of the year, switching to mutual funds or asset management product, bank assurance product, slightly decrease of the stock of deposit and by consequence, decrease of the overall cost. This is the strategy connected with 2024. 2025, we are going to have a scenario where clearly we are going to face the impact of decrease of interest income in terms of loans, but at the same time, the commercial interest expenses should have as well a decrease. The overall commercial and interest income will be slightly down, but we believe that a significant portion of this decrease will be recovered by fees and commission.

The combination of all action in terms of revenues and further efficiency, we believe in terms of cost, will really bring a level of revenues that will be probably slightly below 2024, but will be significantly important in order to support the overall profitability of the bank. Now, we were mentioning that we want to update some mid-term projection of the plan because practically the plan is already we achieved almost all the targets. And I have to say that what we will be focused more is in stressing some development on a specific area of revenues that we already started to benefit in 2024, but we believe we need to make additional acceleration on that.

We are speaking by typical product or lending for families and small business, additional activity or development in product or asset management, reinforcing the number of people dealing with customers and also utilizing much more digital support for the commercial activity, including probably a more effective use of our call center. So practically, we are not identifying a specific area of optimization of the cost. This is a never-ending process, and we are aware that if we want to keep profitability in a sustainable way, we should keep saving more and more with the continuous approach. And as I was mentioning, without constraining in terms of investment because we plan to invest also a significant amount for transforming part of our business in a digital way.

Operator

The next question is from Giovanni Razzoli, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Giovanni Razzoli
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Good morning to everybody. Two questions on my side.

The first one is a broader question on the fee income generation in the quarter, which was very strong. So if you can please update us on what you have mentioned in the previous quarter, that is the update on the investment that you are taking on your advisory platform, which is in my view a differentiating element for Monte Paschi relative to the other banks. Seems like you are one of the few banks which are focusing on investing at the moment. So if you can share with us what's the state of the art there, and if you can also share with us what is the details of the product sales in the Q1 2024, mainly asset under management.

You mentioned that there were EUR 3.8 billion of higher direct and indirect deposit flows in the Q1 vis-à-vis the Q4, but I would like to know what is the contribution of AUM products in the Q1 vis-à-vis the previous quarter. And connected with this, what was the contribution of upfront fees in this quarter? So that concludes my first question on the fee income generation. And the second question, during the presentation, you mentioned that your return on tangible equity would be much higher, normalizing your capital position, and you have mentioned a certain level of CET1. Was it 13.5% or 15%? Was that the range you are referring to?

And the last question on the business plan revision in August, is it fair to assume that in connection with that, you may also restate some of the off-balance sheet DTA as a part of the probability test that could be attached to this revision of the plan? Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Ignacio Ulargui with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Ignacio Ulargui
Senior Equity Analyst, BNP Paribas

Thanks for the presentation and for taking my questions. I have two questions. One coming a bit on fee income generation and linked to Giovanni's question before. How do you see the fee income performing in coming quarters and whether the 1Q24 was the right level to think for the year? And the second question is on.

Speaker 10

Sorry. Just one second that we first answer to Giovanni, and then we take the next question. Sorry for that.

Luigi Lovaglio
CEO, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena

Okay. I will start. I will start.

I start answering to some question. Right. So the main driver of fees and commission growth, as I was mentioning, is connected with wealth management product. I think we had a very good performance, and probably all the market is having good performance this quarter. Practically, the gross flow increased by 50% quarter-on-quarter, and we have a net flow positive. So the overall upfront fee increased by almost EUR 30 million. So we move from EUR 35 million in Q4 to EUR 64 million. I have to say that this trend is expected in some way to continue. And this combination of the new organizational team, as you remember, we changed the head of retail. We appointed the new deputy general manager in charge exclusively of the commercial activity. We had a very positive roadshow meeting, the 14 head of the territory on the areas that we have throughout Italy.

Practically, we met almost 4,000 people. I think the reaction and the feedback was extremely positive. I think we have a very well-motivated network, and this is visible in the day-by-day pace that we are achieving in terms of results. Now, we invested a lot of money in Athena. Athena has really a sort of modular approach and development. We want not only to utilize Athena in terms of defining better the profile of customer, but we want also to try to better understand the development of portfolio, trying to have a sort of repositioning of customers that are not using our product for a certain period of time or customers that normally belong to the last quartile in terms of revenue generation and probably in the last eight, nine months were never even contacted by our people. Right? Through further integration and implementation of Athena, we can be much more effective and much more focused in terms also of getting an iteration much higher compared to what we have now. It's clear that Athena is supporting, but will be much more supporting also some improvement that we want to have in our outbound activity, as I mentioned, in terms of call center that currently is only and mainly working inbound activity.

Now, regarding DTAs, I think I was mentioning in the beginning, practically, we didn't yet update the figures with the current one, and probably we will take advantage also of updating mid-term target of the plan to fuel the probability test. Thanks to that, we believe that we are going to have some additional benefit in terms of tax benefit. The last question was.

Giovanni Razzoli
Equity Research Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yes.

Luigi Lovaglio
CEO, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena

The last question regarding the ideal target, I believe that our bank can run the business with 15.5%, but as we used to be conservative, we are just saying that even if you take a 14%, that is by far presenting a significant buffer, our profitability will be very close to 70%. So it means that we are positioning ourselves at the highest part of our peers.

Speaker 10

So the next question, please.

Operator

The next question is from Ignacio Ulargui with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Ignacio Ulargui
Senior Equity Analyst, BNP Paribas

Thanks again. And so I have one more question linked to organic capital generation. And how do you see that organic capital generation over the coming quarters? You mentioned during the presentation that you expect a bit of a step-up in that generation in 2025. What kind of capital level generation do you think?

And then one small clarification, if there was any kind of one-off in fees in the quarter, we could think this level is the right level to take for 2024. Thank you.

Luigi Lovaglio
CEO, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena

Well, I will ask Andrea to answer on capital. I will just confirm that we don't have one-off in the first quarter. I think the results, as I was mentioning, is exclusively connected with very positive performance in wealth management products. Clearly, we start with a very good pace. The second quarter, okay, we have April that in terms of working days was not the perfect one in terms of improving our results, but clearly, we count to keep the pace and to replicate the performance.

Speaker 10

Yeah. Good morning to everybody. On the first question, I mean, first of all, we will give, let's say, a more precise view when we present our updated medium-term targets.

Having said that, as Luigi was mentioning before and as you were pointing to, let's say, one of the key drivers on top of net income for the next years will be the conversion of DTAs on tax loss carryforwards. To give you an idea, this quarter, we basically used around EUR 20 million as a net usage of DTAs on tax loss carryforwards, so a very low amount. This amount is expected to increase next year. In the steady state, until we use all the DTAs on tax loss carryforwards, this amount should be somehow equal to the ordinary taxes to be paid. Quite a sizable capital generation that will go on for some years. I hope that this can give you preliminary guidance, but then, as mentioned, we will be more precise when we present our updated targets.

Ignacio Ulargui
Senior Equity Analyst, BNP Paribas

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Noemi Peruch, Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Noemi Peruch
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on NII. When it comes to 2024 guidance, could you please update us on your NII indeed outlook for 2024? And do you expect a bit of trade-off between fees and NII already visible in 2024? And then on your strategic target update, are you expecting to update the 2026 business plan target, or would you look further out? And then my last two questions are on asset quality and legal risk. On asset quality, I see NPL going up Q on Q. Could you give us more color on this? And lastly, on legal risk, when do you expect to have visibility on the final petitum on the MPS criminal proceedings? Thank you very much.

Luigi Lovaglio
CEO, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena

Okay. Let's start with the evolution of net interest income.

As I was mentioning, we expect to have a net interest income slightly below compared to 2023, but it's a combination of slightly up cost of funding, sort of resilience on net interest income. Clearly, then we have to have the cost of bonds that are impacting because we have additional bonds that we were just issuing. The combination of all these kind of things will bring to this lower level that is absolutely manageable in terms of fees and commission additionally that we can generate and bringing the total revenues, as I was mentioning, slightly up compared to 2023. The key drivers of the fees and commission, as I was mentioning, will be the wealth management activity because we don't expect significant improvement in terms of banking fees for several reasons. Now, regarding the NP, I think this is used to underline this aspect.

Now, NP ratio is a very nice ratio, but by definition, it's a ratio between the performing loans and the non-performing loans. So if you don't grow significantly in performing loans, you are penalized. I think what's important for us is to see how many times the level of reserves is covered by the gross operating profit, and we have a positive trend on that. Having said that, we want as well to reduce the stock.

So in addition to what I mentioned before, a sort of internal reinforcement of the workout activity, not because we are not effective—we are very well effective in curing, particularly, the unlikely-to-pay portfolio—we want to try to set up a specific task force, especially to speed up some recovery connected with the loans that are fully with a guarantee on Mediocredito, also what we call letter M, that clearly require a specific process for enforcing the guarantee, but at the current stage, are among the loans that we are considering non-performing despite we have the guarantee. So by quickly enforcing the guarantee and getting as quick as possible the money back from Mediocredito, we will further improve and reduce our stock.

In addition to that, we already set in the plan of the year, we are also considering to prepare for the second part of 2024 a potential sale of part of the portfolio. We already have adjusted completely the value of the potential sales of the portfolio in our P&L. So according to some indication we are getting from the market in a informal way, we believe that this is another option and a sort of trade-off if we sell or we try to further improve our capability to recover. But clearly, we want to deal in an effective way by decreasing the stock of NP. Then regarding the target of the plan, it's clear that the idea is to extend the period for which we are providing target to the market, but still is something that is still to be well defined.

But clearly, we expect to go beyond 2026.

Noemi Peruch
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Thank you. And on the legal risk?

Luigi Lovaglio
CEO, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena

Sorry, I forgot about legal risk because now, for me, it's completely a topic that is fixed. It's completely settled, and so I canceled it from my mind. But anyway, practically, as I was mentioned, this is a process that, unfortunately, is lasting, but practically, we don't have changes in petitum compared to the position in December. We are waiting for some development connected with the MPS civil litigation that we were already presenting, and we have a slide in the attachment of our presentation just to support the information I was giving orally. And practically, the NP proceeding will have some development next year. But anyway, we already know that almost 300 civil parties were excluded.

A very small petitum, just to give you the idea that it's a process because the petitum that has been excluded at EUR 13 million, but it's a process that will keep going forward. But as we were mentioning, we already identify and classify this risk, a very limited one. So we are confident it's just a matter of time. And anyway, we are also well equipped in terms of balance sheet for dealing with this kind of issue, even if it will last a bit longer than we hope.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Fabrizio Bernardi in Intermonte. Please go ahead.

Fabrizio Bernardi
Equity Analyst, Intermonte

Hi, everybody. Question on strategy. It looks like you are long capital, probably one of the Common Equity Tier 1 ratio higher. I mean, probably the highest, I think, in Europe, at least in Italy.

You were not supposed to pay a dividend in 2023, and you pay. Now you pay also in 2024. So what I'm wondering, I know that there is pending a new business plan. So maybe this question is, let's say, not welcome. But would you consider the possibility to buy banking asset given your position in terms of capital, or this capital position is, let's say, what you think is good for a group that is coming out of a turnaround? And in any case, maybe you can drive our attention to the dividend policy considering the capital position. Thank you.

Luigi Lovaglio
CEO, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena

So let's start from what, for me, is quite clear. I don't think we have to consume our capital to buy capital banking assets, right? Anyway, it's clear, as I was mentioning last time, that we are aware that the position of capital is quite strong.

Maybe with the plan, we can also consider a different approach in terms of dividend distribution policy. It's something that we can consider. At the same time, as I was mentioning last time, we will try to capture all the opportunity connected with the current partnership that we have in place. And clearly, it depends also on the counterpart, but we are aware that we have to be active, and we have to optimize this excess of capital.

Fabrizio Bernardi
Equity Analyst, Intermonte

Sorry, if I can make a follow-up, you have, let's say, relatively high cost of risk in terms of loan loss provision. There are banks that reported today, I think, 10 basis points. You have 54. Is there a possibility that you are very conservative in this?

Luigi Lovaglio
CEO, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena

I think, okay, I don't know if we are conservative. We are very responsible for that, right?

Because I believe a bank in this environment should have a cost of risk, should be a medium bank, right? Around 30, 40. We didn't mention, but anyway, we have some overlay on that. We like to be very conservative. And I believe the cost of risk that we have is also giving us comfort for the coming months and for the next year, even if the overall economic situation will deteriorate. If I want to use one of your expressions, maybe probably we are conservative, but I think we are conservative in everything we are doing. And it's much better to surprise the market also on the side of th e risk, right?

Fabrizio Bernardi
Equity Analyst, Intermonte

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Andrea Lisi, Equita. Please go ahead. Hi. Thank you. Just two very quick questions.

Andrea Lisi
Equity Analyst, Equita

The first one is if you can provide us a bit more if you can explain a bit better the difference between the CET1 fully loaded of 17.9% and the pro forma of 18.2%, where it comes from, the difference. And the second is if you can provide us an update on the amount of fiscal credits related to Superbonus. Do you have? And which was the contribution to NII in the first quarter? Thank you.

Luigi Lovaglio
CEO, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena

So I start with the first question, the difference between the Common Equity Tier one ratio pro forma and, let's say, the stated one. No, the difference is simply that the pro forma includes the net profit and the dividend accrual for the period, as you know.

As you know, if you do not ask for explicit approval to the ECB for including the interim net profit, then from a formal viewpoint, this is not part of the capital. But then this will be included, of course, when we approve the first half result. While on the Superbonus exposure, the book value of tax credits connected to Superbonus amounted to EUR 1.6 billion, and the NII contribution in first quarter 2024 amounts to EUR 23 million.

Andrea Lisi
Equity Analyst, Equita

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Hugo Cruz KBW. Please go ahead.

Hugo Cruz
Director, KBW

Hi. Thank you for your time. I just wanted to ask you to clarify a bit the OpEx guidance. I think from Q4, you had guided for OpEx to go up a bit, but this quarter actually went down. And I think you mentioned previously today that you expect OpEx to continue to go down.

So if you could clarify what you expect for this year. Thank you. And perhaps the moving part, staff and non-staff. Thank you.

Luigi Lovaglio
CEO, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena

Okay. As I was mentioning, we have a different trend that is connected clearly with HR that is impacted by the labor contract that was signed in November, so additional increase of cost on that. Practically, on HR, as already in the first quarter, we have the value of the cost that includes this increase of salary. We plan to be almost flat throughout the year. The first quarter on non-HR cost was quite important. The savings we reported is very challenging to keep this level, but we want to be very close to this level also in the coming quarter. So overall, the trend on non-HR cost should be slightly lower compared to 2023. HR cost slightly up connected with this increase of salary.

So the challenge is really to keep as much as possible the overall cost in 2024 marginally up, trying to offset part of the increase that is connected with the personnel expenses. And in order to do it, it's clear that we are leveraging on our cost management organization. We are factoring some action we put in place with the exit of 4,000 people in November 2022. And it's clear when you have 20% people leaving the bank, you have some benefit in terms of space management, some benefit in terms also of a stationery position that you will not get immediately, but you will get a bit later. And we hope that this cost reduction for space management activity, reduction for cost related to synergies connected from the merger of the company that we integrated because we integrated in April last year two companies.

This will also allow us to start a process of renegotiation contracts. In some cases, also to reinforce some outsourced activities that are very expensive. We want to utilize some people from inside in order to optimize productivity. Clearly, also, the evolution of all the legal risk are implying some benefit in containment of legal and consultancy cost. So all this action that we already have in our pipeline will gradually give their results. We hope to anticipate some action we plan for 2025 in order, as I said, to partly offset the increase of HR cost connected with the labor cost.

Hugo Cruz
Director, KBW

Thank you. Very helpful.

Operator

As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. Mr. Lovaglio, there are no more questions registered at this time. I turn the conference back to you for the closing remarks.

Luigi Lovaglio
CEO, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena

Thank you very much. See you next presentation in August.

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