Good morning. This is the Chorus Call Conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the MPS Business Plan 2026, 2030 Presentation. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Luigi Lovaglio, Chief Executive Officer and General Manager. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you very much. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining us. Today, we are not simply presenting a business plan. Today, we are presenting one group established on deep roots and now projected towards new frontiers, bold horizons. Two iconic brands, one future. Just like the great work of our history, what we have built since last year will stand the test of time, because it is grounded in a strong industrial rationale and elevated by the belief that this group can express its full potential. The plan is built on one principle: great banking is about serving clients. The business plan you will see today is designed with one goal: creating outstanding sustainable value and deliver a profitable growth for all stakeholders. This plan is not built on expectation.
It is grounded in what we have already achieved, in the strength of MPS and Mediobanca, iconic brands and platforms, and in the tangible progress of the integration journey. Here, what gives me confidence in this plan is the certainty that I can count on talented colleagues, complementary strength, a compelling combination of Italy's most extensive relating banking network, with one of Europe's premier investment banking and wealth management franchises, and a customer-driven model designed for long-term value creation. As we look at the remarkable year behind us, what becomes clear is not only the magnitude of what we have achieved, it is the foundation of a new trajectory. In 2025, we delivered results that surpassed our previous plan's targets, and we were ahead of schedule, confirming the strength and discipline of this management team.
We launched and completed the public offer on Mediobanca with 86.3% acceptance rate, earning the confidence of both Italian and international investors. Immediately after the closing of the acquisition, we initiated the merger and integration work that will allow us to extract the full EUR 700 million synergy of this combination. We defined the pact, we executed the strategy, and we positioned the new group exactly where we wanted it to be. Now, together with Andrea, we are here to present how this achievement opened the way to the next five years of our group, with growth and will help allow us to set the stage for everything that follows. With that, let us turn to Slide 5 .
In September 2025, we successfully completed the public tender and exchange offer with an exceptional 86.3% acceptance rate, confirming both strategic rationale of the deal and the strong support of Italian and international investors. Since then, we have immediately activated the integration process, setting the group on a clear path to unlock the full EUR 700 million synergies and designing of the new Mediobanca S.p.A. with a perimeter focus on corporate investment banking and high-end private banking to maximize value creation. Now we are approaching a key next step. On March 10th, we will present the merger plan and the exchange ratio proposal.
Slide 6 shows exactly what that platform has already created, a group that is now Italy's third player with EUR 8 billion revenues, with over 7 million clients and more than 20,000 employees, EUR 300 million total commercial savings, bringing together complementarity strengths to form a truly leading competitive force in banking. What does this slide show is also the industrial strength of the combined group. Scale and complementarity matter only if they translate into performance. That is exactly where our 2026, 2030 business plan begins.
A business plan with rising revenues in 2030 to the level of EUR 9.5 billion, a cost-income ratio moving below 40%, net profit reach EUR 3.7 billion, EUR 371 billion of total financial asset, and EUR 16 billion in cumulative distribution, maintaining a 16 Core Tier 1 ratio with EUR 3 billion excess capital, giving us strategic flexibility and shareholders firepower that few banks in Europe can match. The question investors always ask is the following: Can you deliver? The best answer is not a promise, it's a track record. Track record that which bring us to Slide 8. The about EUR 10 billion of shareholder value we have already created since 2022 capital increase, prove that this team executes, outperforms, and delivers results ahead of plan. With that, let us move to Slide 10.
With this slide, we want to show where we begin to look at what this group has become, and the unique success factors that will drive value creation over the next five years. This slide captures the strategic DNA of the combined group, the factors that make this integration not just larger, but stronger. It allies our core success factors, highly visible and trusted iconic brands, the heritage, the connection, and credibility of Montepaschi and Mediobanca working together. Strong business complementarity with unique product offering, a deeply rooted commercial franchise, target IT investment, enabling a full deployed AI-driven technology platform to accelerate innovation and productivity, relevant scale and best-in-class capital position, unparalleled human capital, the key enabler of our ability to execute, grow, and deliver value. These success factors are the foundation, but their real power emerges when we look at how they come together.
The Slide 11 illustrate our, the complementarity of our platform and the strength of our iconic brands, translating to a structurally diversified and resilient business model. We begin with the revenue contribution by segment based on 2025 pro forma data. Retail and commercial banking, 30% of total group revenues, corporate investment banking, 21%, asset gathering and wealth management, 30%, private banking, 14%, consumer finance, 19%. It is important to underline asset gathering and wealth management, together with private banking, with 30%, represent the most profitable part of the group, thanks to capital light earnings, recurring and scalable fee-based revenues. In essence, the combined group is structurally set for higher quality earnings with a combination that underpins both long-term growth and share relating potential. This diversified model becomes even more powerful when we look at how it reaches the market.
This slide shows the breadth and the depth of our commercial franchise, and more importantly, we see why this franchise is a structural driver of profitable for the growth. The slide highlights a multi-segment omni-channel network. 1,250 branches across Italy. 1,280 financial advisor, one of the largest advisory networks in the country. 750 private bankers serving high-end clients. 500 investment bankers covering corporate, institutional, and multinational. A total reach over 7 million clients across all channels. This model is enabled by a single technological backbone.
Between 2026 and 2030, we will invest around EUR 1 billion in IT with a very clear objective: modernize, secure, and scale the group while improving customer experience and operating efficiency. On the front end, AI lift the client experience up to 90% of requests is resolved, end-to-end, 80% of clients digitally active, fully digitized, frictionless journey. On the inside, AI drivers productivity, 15%-20% relationship manager productivity, 20% faster credit and control, 20% IT productivity uplift, 100% of colleague trains on AI. Technology is a multiples, The multiplier that powers our people, our platform, and our performance. Technology give us speed and intelligence, It is our scale and capital strength that turn this advantage into long-term competitiveness. Slide 15 shows exactly that.
A group that is now reached European level scale, with the solidity to capture new value or creative opportunity, both in Italy and abroad. What truly changed our trajectory is the presence that Mediobanca already has across key European financial centers. These are not symbolic dots on map, they are operational platform that already serve institutional clients, entrepreneurs, corporates, and high net worth individual. Now, as one group, we can leverage this platform to expand our business. None of this would be possible without our people. Two strong cultures and distinct professional heritage are now fully aligned behind one shared ambition. Our immediate priority is clear: retain and empower our bankers, private bankers, and commercial talent, while ensuring continuity, stability in client relationship. We are investing in training, cross-business career, leadership development to build the next generation of bankers, advisors, and specialists.
With over 1,000 new hires focused on commercial and value-creating roles, alongside extensive reskilling and redeployment, we are strengthening our execution capacity. Our people are decisive, and they are the enabler of this plan. The reason we can integrate faster, execute with discipline, and capture the opportunity ahead. Everything we build is built through them. Integration is progressing, is on time, and on target. We expect around EUR 700 million total synergies. Phase one is completed, the target operating model is defined, and synergies are already visible across revenues, cost, and funding. Phase two is structured to minimize execution risk and maximize delivery. This reflect our approach: discipline, realism, execution focus, seven core integration streams, four governance layers, all aligned to ensure discipline, execution, and controlled risk.
By the end of 2026, we will have completed the merger, secure retention of talent, and executed a coordinated communication strategy with stakeholders. We now move to the industrial core of the plan. One group, five complementarity business, each with a clear role in value creation. We start with retail, commercial banking, consumer finance, asset gathering, wealth management, private banking, and corporate investment banking. All of this is enabled by three transversal pillar: digital, people, and ESG. Let's now begin with the first and largest of our business engines, retail and commercial banking, the backbone of the group and the starting point for our client relationship. A leading Italian player with nationwide reach and a central role in our growth strategy, a business that account for around 30% of our revenues and sits at the core of our client franchise.
This is a national way platform, 2.7 million retail client, 1,100,000 corporate clients, 340 branches, strengthening by extended Mediobanca Premier, and with DiAloga reach. A business position for profitable growth. Thanks to that, the plan projects has ambitious target, with revenues rising from EUR 2.5 billion-EUR 2.6 billion, profit before tax increasing from EUR 0.7 billion-EUR 1.1 billion, customer loan growing from EUR 66 billion-EUR 82 billion. This is a solid, predictable, and highly profitable growth engine, essential to the stability and resilience of the group. Four strategic priorities define the growth plan: strengthening the leadership in mortgage.
Unified factoring, AI-powered credit decision, time to yes, reduced from 25 days to seven days, focus on green mortgage and next generation formats, upgrading non-life in bank insurance, AI-driven targeting, scalable protection offerings, fees growing from EUR 45 million- EUR 88 million. Enhancing strategic verticals, MPS Agridop, hospitality and tourism, specialized center, factoring turnover, raising from EUR 23 billion- EUR 32 billion. Strengthening digital capabilities. This is how retail and commercial banking captures new value, through speed, specialization, and next-generation digital engagement. If retail and commercial banking is our backbone, then consumer finance is our structural accelerator. A high margin, highly scalable business that benefits immediately from the combined group's reach and funding strength. Let's move to consumer finance. Consumer finance is our structural accelerator. High margin, capital efficient, and immediately strengthened by the combination of our distribution and Compass capabilities.
The business today is already one of the leaders in Italy, number two player in the market with 14% share, revenues rising from EUR 1.3 billion- EUR 1.7 billion, profit before tax increasing from EUR 0.6 billion- EUR 0.8 billion, loans growing from EUR 70 billion- EUR 21 billion. Customer risk remaining low and stable. Crucially, this is a structurally profitable business with returns among the highest in the group, and scalable for beyond the Italian market. That is exactly what the plan is designed to achieve. The first level of growth is cross-selling, the natural advantage of being a group, one group with complementary franchises. The slides show how consumer finance can now access Compass branches and agency, Montepaschi branch with DiAloga clients, premier and private channels, broker and dealer networks, merchant clients using Nexi SmartPOS.
This is dramatically enlarge the addressable customer base and turns consumer finance into a group-wide growth engine. The complementarity product offer give us high margin, diversified revenue stream. Slide 27 show the industrial logic behind the business. One single consumer finance factory combined Compass excellence with Monte Paschi distribution and funding advantage. The benefits are immediate. Total disbursement raised from EUR 9.6 billion- EUR 12.4 billion. Cost income improving from 31% to 27%. Portfolio shift towards lower risk segment, thanks to Monte Paschi funding strength. The key message is international scalability. With Mediobanca's presence and Compass modular architecture, consumer finance becomes a platform we can deploy beyond Italy. The plan includes expansion in Poland, a EUR 50 billion market, scaling Buy Now, Pay Later in Switzerland through HeidiPay, a digital architecture designed for replication across selected European geographies.
This slide shows that consumer finance is not longer just an Italian business, it is a European opportunity. Slide 28 reinforces a key message, that technology doesn't just enable growth, it lifts profitability. Three drivers stand out: instant lending and frictionless onboarding. Buy Now, Pay Later, scaling at pace. Data-driven risk management. If consumer finance is our accelerator, asset gathering and wealth management is our value multiplier, the most profitable, the most capital light, and the most relating driven part of the group. Let's now move to asset gathering and wealth management. This is one of the most strategic engines of the group, and structurally, the most profitable. This business is large, fast-growing and capital light. Revenues rising from EUR 1.5 billion- EUR 2 billion. Profit before tax growing from EUR 0.8 billion- EUR 1.2 billion.
Total financial asset increased from EUR 142 billion- EUR 185 billion. More than 1,280 financial advisor, one of the Italy's top network. There are recurring fee-driven, high-quality earnings, this, they are weight gross within the group's mix. They support a natural relating of the share value. This is a business where scale, advice, and proximity matter, the combination with Mediobanca unlocks exactly this strength. Slide 31 shows the industrial logic of uniting two strong advisory networks with in Mediobanca Premier. We are uniting them into one scalable, high productivity platform. The result is powerful. Financial advisors grow from 1,280- 1,750. Client asset management by far rise from EUR 25 billion- EUR 40 billion.
The plan focuses on integrating know-how, selectively recruiting top talent, expanding the product shelf, delivering tech-enabled advisory, including the DiAloga AI agent. DiAloga is a breakthrough for our advisory network, an AI-powered engine that elevates every conversation, helping our advisors deliver deeper insight, faster response, and more personalized guidance to every client. This enhanced advisory capability becomes even more powerful when we move to the affluent and upper affluent segment. A client base that expects sophistication, values high-quality advice, and represent one of the most profitable areas of the group. That brings us to Slide 32. Here, the slide shows how we strengthen the advisory and product model for affluent and upper affluent clients through multi-channel advisory in branches of site, remote, enhanced investment and protection solution, stronger premium advisory through the Athena platform. I believe the number confirm the potential.
Total financial asset from upper affluent clients rise from EUR 28 billion- EUR 34 billion. Slide 33 showcases one of our most important differentiators, a unique product engine combining Anima, Mediobanca asset management companies, and over 30 global asset managers. This engine supports Mediobanca SGR asset management growing from EUR 21 billion- EUR 40 billion. Strong development of alternatives, mandates, and discretionary management. Open architecture strengthened by proprietary solution. Now, if asset gathering and wealth management is our value multiplier, then private banking is our strategic catalyst, where high net worth clients, investment capabilities, and advisory excellence come together to drive extraordinary long-term profitability. Let's now move to private banking. Key figures: revenues rising from EUR 0.6 billion- EUR 0.9 billion. Profit before tax growing from EUR 0.2 billion- EUR 0.4 billion.
Total financial asset expanding from EUR 77 billion- EUR 103.3 billion. 700 top-class bankers serving high-end client. This is a business that grows fast, scales well, and generated some of the group highest quality earnings. The strategic roadmap rests on Three pillars: cement leadership in private investment banking, broaden investment and credit solution, expand internationally. We are the natural partner for Italian entrepreneurs. The combined group brings together personal wealth advisory, corporate advisory, structural lending, hedging, and investment solution. This fully integrated 360 coverage creates a powerful synergy engine. EUR 2 billion cumulative net new money from liquidity events expected by 2030. The synergies between private banking and Corporate Investment Bank is one of our strongest differentiators and a core profitability driver.
This slide show how we deepen our proposition for ultra-high net worth individual, expanding the higher margin part of the platform. Growth area include private market, asset under management rising from EUR 2.5 billion- EUR 5 billion, discretionary mandates and customized management. Account rising from EUR 7.4 billion- EUR 11.2 billion. Structured products, alternatives, notes, certificates, growth area include enhanced lending toolkit for sophisticated clients. This is where profitability multiples accelerate, products with high advisory content, recurring fees, and strong differentiation.... Slide 38 highlights one of our most strategic opportunities that we have now: the ability to attract international financial flows through Mediobanca's existing presence abroad. Two complementary hubs, Luxembourg, European clients, Switzerland, extra European flows, Middle East, international high net worth individual.
This enable us to unlock international inflows, liquidity events from Corporate Investment Bank client in Spain, in France, wealth migration towards Switzerland financial center, growth for Monaco, London, and New York. These hubs are a gateway to EUR 5 billion of additional international assets under management, not included in the plan. It represents a pure upside. In essence, private banking is our strategic catalyst, where wealth, advisory, and international capabilities come together, driving high-margin, capital-light, long-term value creation. This brings us naturally to Corporate and Investment Banking, the partner of Italy's entrepreneurs and the corporates, and the engine through which we connect, advise, capital, and market across Europe. Slide 40 present the Corporate Investment Bank franchising, that is already one of Italy's strongest, and now significantly enhanced by scale, integration, cross-selling.
Key metrics: revenues rising from EUR 1 billion- EUR 1.3 billion, profit before tax increasing from EUR 0.6 billion- EUR 0.8 billion, loan rising from EUR 22 billion- EUR 27 billion, 500 bankers, number one in Italian merger and acquisition by volumes, number two by value. This is a business with deep client relationship and strong advisory credibility. Slide 41 shows how the integration creates a complete end-to-end corporate investment bank platform, unifying advisory excellence, specialized financing, and markets capability into one coordinated franchise that serves large corporate, mid corporate, small and medium enterprise, and private capital investor. By bringing together Mediobanca's strength with Montepaschi's commercial reach, we position ourselves as the leading corporate investment bank partner across Italy, with corporate investment bank revenues rising from EUR 670 million- EUR 877 million by 2030.
In essence, this slide shows a stronger, broader, more integrated Corporate Investment Bank engine designed to lead in Italy and to support our client with unified high impact offering. Slide 42 expands the vision. The new group can now scale Corporate Investment Bank internationally. Expansion priorities include Spain, Portugal, France, U.K., Germany, stronger presence in U.S. New Middle East branch focus on market and sovereign wealth funds, and critically, 50% of Corporate Investment Bank revenues to come from international market by 2030. More than 250 bankers abroad and presence in 8 countries. Slide 43 closes the loop. Corporate Investment Banking and Private Banking together form a unique Italian Private Investment Banking model. Key targets: 20% of Italy's merger acquisition revenues coming from this approach, EUR 0.5 billion new net money from Private Investment Bank clients through Corporate Investment Bank cross-selling.
This is the synergy engine, advisory, liquidity event, wealth management, long-term relationship, all within one group. Having seen the strengths of our operating business, we now turn to principal investing, an important contributor of diversified and decorrelated revenues. We refer to the 13% stake in Assicurazioni Generali, that provides both diversification and stability within the group's earnings. Revenues grow from EUR 0.5 billion- EUR 0.8 billion, represent 8% of the group revenues and 70% of the pre-tax profit by 2030. This business is decorrelated from our core banking cycle and acts as an opportunity to enhance visibility of earning and supporting the group's long-term strength. Before we move to one of the key enablers, let me also say a word on IT integration, how the progress is visible in this area.
Because the success of the plan depends on a unified, scalable, and modern technology backbone. We aim at converging the group into a single infrastructure, and this unified architecture is exactly what enabled the next steps. Digitization, because only with one infrastructure, one data platform, and one core process engine, can we digitize products end-to-end and deploy AI across the group. And this is what the next slide shows, how digitization and innovation become the industrial engine of the new group, enabling scale, automation, and faster execution across retail, corporate, wealth, private banking, consumer finance, and corporate investment banking. This slide conveys some key messages. We are investing around EUR 1 billion between 2026 and 2030 to create a modern, scalable, and secure digital platform for the entire group.
Half of this investment benefit from multiple business lines simultaneously, because the objective is to build one infrastructure, one data platform, and one AI layer serving the whole group. This slide outlines how digitization directly supports the business engines: retail and commercial banking, consumer finance, asset gathering, wealth management, private banking, and corporate and investment banking. Digitization is how we deliver faster decision, better customer experience, and more efficient operation across every line of business with one integrated digital model. In essence, digitization and innovation will turn our integrated IT strategy into real execution, faster journeys, smarter decision, higher productivity, and a secure, scalable platform for the entire group. We have talked about technology, but what really matters are people who make it work. We are empowering our people to drive the transformation. 100% of colleagues covered by dedicated training programs delivered through the group academy.
Capability building focus on AI, data, cybersecurity, and advisory excellence, the skills that will define the future of financial services. We are not just investing technology, we are investing in the people who will use it. We are retaining and rewarding the talent that matters most, so we have already put in place, but we will make it stronger. Retention for our key client-facing teams. Bankers and private banking talent protected and motivated through tiered retention actions. More than 1,000 colleagues already involved in performance-based reward and retention program. Finally, ESG. For us, ESG is not a constraint, but a growth driver. Sustainable finance, client transition support, social inclusion, and strong engagement with local communities are fully embedded in our business model. We aim to grow while creating shared value for all shareholders, clients, and the broader economy.
I will now hand the floor to Andrea, who will guide you through the next section, and I will rejoin for the final remarks.
Thank you, Luigi. Good morning to everyone. Let's move to financial targets, starting from the macroeconomic assumptions underlying our plan. As you can see, the scenario is a conservative one, envisaging GDP growth at about 0.5%-0.6% per year over the plan period, accordingly with three-month Euribor, which is expected to be stable at about 2% up to 2027, and then slightly increased to 2.4%-2.5%, consistently with market expectations. A recap on the main financial targets that clearly show a path of sustainable profitability, thanks to growing and resilient revenues with improved mix and technology-driven operating leverage. This allows a superior shareholders return while preserving a solid risk and capital profile.
In details, operating income is expected to increase from EUR 7.6 billion in 2025, to EUR 9 billion in 2028, to EUR 9.5 billion in 2030, growing at a CAGR of 4.6%, supported by an increasing contribution of fee-based businesses and a diversified revenue mix. Operating costs increase only slightly over the plan time horizon, despite the impact of inflationary components, thanks to the realization of synergies from the combination between Montepaschi and Mediobanca. The cost-income ratio is expected to improve from 46% in 2025, down to 39% in 2028, and 38% in 2030, reflecting disciplined cost management and technology-driven efficiency gains.
In terms of asset quality, the plan envisages a decreasing gross NPE ratio from current 2.9%- 2.2% in 2030, an increasing NPE coverage ratio, and a structurally low cost of risk in the 45 basis points area. The adjusted net profit, adjusted for the area assessment and one-offs, is expected to increase from EUR 2.3 billion in 2025, to EUR 3.3 billion in 2028, to EUR 3.7 billion in 2030, leading to an adjusted ROTE of 17% in 2028, and 18% in 2030. The Common Equity Tier 1 ratio is expected to stay around 16% throughout the plan time horizon, while allowing a significant shareholders remuneration, ensuring a best-in-class capital position and significant strategic flexibility.
Actually, the dividend distribution, which is based on a 100% payout ratio over the plan time horizon, is expected to result in around EUR 16 billion of cumulative distributions, confirming the group's commitment to attractive and sustainable shareholders remuneration. Liquidity and funding indicators will remain healthy. Moving to revenues. The operating income is expected to reach EUR 9.5 billion in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.6% over the 2025-2030 period, supported by all revenue items, with the most significant contribution coming from net fees and commission income, reaching EUR 3.2 billion in 2030, which means a 5.6% CAGR.
The net interest income is expected to increase at a 3.8% CAGR, reaching EUR 5 billion in 2030, driven by increasing volumes in the context of the expected stabilization first, and then a slight increase in rates, as you can see in the next slide. Increase also in other income, providing additional diversification to the revenue base. Now, a deep dive on net interest income. As you can see, the net interest income growth is driven by further acceleration in the commercial activity, enabled by the synergy achievement. We do expect a positive contribution to NII of about EUR 1.6 billion, mainly driven by volumes growth, with the rate impact expected to be limited. With regard to the other main NII components, we expect higher net interest expenses related to the increase in institutional funding in order to fund accelerated loan growth.
Finally, other effects ultimately compensate each other. Commercial loans are expected to grow at a 4.3% CAGR over the plan period, or 5.2% CAGR in the 2025-2028 period, mainly driven by synergies in retail and commercial banking Compass. Commercial direct savings are projected to rise at a 2.1% CAGR over 2025-2030, with confirmation of a large and stable retail and SME deposit base, representing a good chunk of the total, being an area of strength in the group. Moving on to net fees and commissions evolution. Fees are expected to reach EUR 3.2 billion in 2030, with a CAGR 2025-2030 of 5.6%, being a key component in revenue growth.
A strong contribution by wealth management and protection fees is targeted, representing the main driver of overall fee growth, with the wealth management fees are projected to rise from EUR 1.4 billion- EUR 1.9 billion in 2030, with an increase at an about 7% CAGR. Transactional banking fees are expected to grow at a 2.8% CAGR, reaching EUR 1.3 billion by 2030. In the next slide, we can see the related expected evolution of indirect funding volumes, leading to the strong performance of fees and driven by the clear strategy outlined by the plan, as explained by Luigi.
Indirect funding is expected to grow by almost EUR 70 billion over the plan period, which means a 6.4% CAGR, 2025-2030, reaching over EUR 250 billion in 2030, with a better mix, driven by a strong increase in AUM, that will represent about 70% of the total stock at the end of the period as a result of a quality growth. Moving to cost. The cost base is expected to slightly grow over the plan period, with an increase in HR cost, mainly related to talent attraction and salary inflation, and in D&A, driven by IT investments. I would like to remind you, EUR 1 billion of investments over the plan. This impact is almost offset by the benefit of synergies, both on HR costs and general and administrative costs.
Going into more detail on the operating costs, we see that HR costs are expected to slightly increase from EUR 2.1 billion- EUR 2.2 billion in the plan time horizon, driven by salary inflation and FD development, partially mitigated by synergies and de novo management. With regard to G&A, we expect a decrease from EUR 1.1 billion- EUR 1 billion in the planned time horizon, thanks to synergies and full application of MPS cost discipline approach, for a total saving of more than EUR 200 million, more than offsetting the inflationary effect, the cost of the bank transformation, and AI-enabled productivity. As we just explained, our business model will be based on six clearly identified areas, each with a defined role in value creation, leading to a well-balanced revenue mix, as you can see in this slide.
Every business area gives a solid contribution to group's operating income, which is expected to be further strengthened over the planned period. Thanks to the complementarity between businesses and platforms, investments, and a clear commercial focus in key strategic areas. In the next slides, some key figures for each business are shown. Starting from retail and commercial banking, as explained, it combines a nationwide footprint with a progressively more digital omni-channel client experience. Over the planned horizon, the division is expected to deliver an increase in operating income, reaching about EUR 2.6 billion in 2030 at a 4.5% CAGR in the period, with an important contribution from fees, representing 40% of total revenues. Operating costs continue to be under control despite investments, leading to a decrease in cost-income ratio, moving from current 52% to 45%.
Profit before tax is expected to grow at a 10% CAGR. Loan book expected to increase at 4.3% CAGR, reaching about EUR 82 billion in 2030, mainly thanks to the strengthening of the leadership position in mortgages, with risk profile well under control and cost of risk decreasing from 41- 31 basis points over the planned period. In consumer finance, that is anchored on Compass, position as a top-tier scalable platform and the group's center of excellence with international growth ambitions. Over 2026-2030, the segment trajectory envisages operating income increasing from about EUR 1.3 billion to about EUR 1.7 billion in 2030 at a 4.6% CAGR, supported by increased cross-selling between MPS and Compass. Cost-income ratio decreasing from 31%-27% in 2030, showing top-class efficiency.
New loans increasing at about 5% CAGR, reaching EUR 12 billion in 2028. Asset gathering and wealth management as a fee compounding growth engine, integrating the combined group capabilities. Over the planned period, operating income expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.2%, with a resilient commission-driven mix, representing 60% of total revenues. Operating costs almost stable at EUR 0.7 billion over the planned period, with a decreasing trend of cost-income ratio moving from 47%- 38%.
Total financial assets are projected to grow from EUR 142 billion in 2025- EUR 185 billion in 2030, 5.5% CAGR, supported by the integration of the capabilities of the combined group, by strengthening the service models for affluent and upper-affluent clients, and by an acceleration of recruitment, with an expected increase in the number of financial advisors by about 40%. Private banking. Private banking's position as a private investment banking franchise at scale, focused on entrepreneurs and high-net-worth individuals, with international hub expansions and a stronger mix driven by commissions. Operating income is expected to increase at a CAGR 2025-2030 of 6.5%, with a structurally stronger mix driven by commissions, rising from 56%- 61% of total revenues.
Operating costs are expected to be well under control, with cost-income ratio decreasing from current 69% to 52%. Total financial assets growing from EUR 77 billion in 2025- EUR 103 billion in 2030, fueled by the consolidation of the leadership in private investment banking. Corporate Investment Banking will be advisory-led, combining debt, equity capital markets, and commercial banking services with a growing international presence, building on the highly recognized Mediobanca brand and capabilities. The segment trajectory envisages operating income expected to increase at a 5.4% CAGR, with a structurally stronger mix driven by commissions, rising from 38%- 43% of total revenues. Operating costs almost stable, with improving efficiency and cost-income ratio decreasing from 44%- 37%.
I would like to give an overview of the asset quality key metrics trend expected over the planned period, with further improvement of the group's risk profile. The gross NP stock is expected to decrease to EUR 3.6 billion by 2030, from the current level of EUR 4.1 billion, driven by lower default rates and higher cure rates, as you can see in the slide, on top of a proactive management of NP, including cumulative disposals expected for EUR 2 billion. The reduction of the NPE stock will lead to a gross NPE ratio decreasing from current 2.9% to 2.4% in 2028, reaching 2.2% in 2030. The net NPE ratio will reach 1% in 2030.
The NPE coverage ratio will increase to 56% in 2030, from 52% in 2025, supported by the increase of coverage of bad loans, with a strong 71% in 2030. Cost of risk is expected to remain stable at about 45 bps across the plan, in line with our conservative approach in managing risks. The business plan is underpinned by a clear funding strategy with a stable funding mix, driven by the increase of institutional funding contribution, leveraging on the strong interest shown by the market in the latest issues. Now, some key numbers certifying the strength of the group funding and liquidity profile over the plan time horizon.
The total funding reimbursement is around EUR 28 billion in the period, while total funding insurances are expected to be over EUR 36 billion over the plan period, increasing institutional bonds contribution, reaching 70% in 2028 from 30% in 2025. Solid liquidity indicators over the plan, with LCR at 155% in 2030, and NSFR at 123%, with significant buffer over requirements. Finally, we will keep a sound MREL position across the plan, with excess in years following the merger used to unlock funding synergies. Last but not least, capital. Solid capital ratios level are maintained at around 60% over the plan, ensuring in this way a best-in-class capital position and significant strategic flexibility.
The capital ratios evolution assumes, as said, a dividend payout ratio of 100% of net profit, while the utilization of DTA allows to finance the RWA growth. The capital projections factor in around EUR 16 billion dividend distribution in the period, which means that we expect accretive shareholders remuneration over time. This is a very relevant point, because the expected EUR 16 billion dividend distribution is coupled with an expected amount of excess capital buffer of around EUR 3 billion, which provides strategic flexibility. Finally, I remind that the potential upside from Danish Compromise application is above 50 bps. Now I hand the presentation back to Luigi.
Thank you, Andrea. As we enter in the final part of today's presentation, I want to lift our gaze from the financial metrics to the strategic meaning behind them, who we are becoming, and what this group now stands for. Slide 71 captures this perfectly. It shows a group that has moved from reconquering its position to shaping its market. A common Tier 1 ratio around 60%, as Andrea mentioned, giving us strategic flexibility that few banks in Europe can match, allowing us to invest, to grow, to distribute dividend without compromising resilience. A clear number three player in the Italian banking market, with scale, reach, the relevance to compete effectively across all segments. A complete and resilient business model, spanning retail and commercial, consumer finance, wealth, and asset management, private banking, and Corporate Investment Bank, all highly complementary and delivering diversified recurring growth.
Technology-driven operating leverage, moving the cost-income ratio below 40, thanks to EUR 1 billion of IT investment and the deployment of digital and AI capabilities across the group. This is the profile of a group leading. Slide 72 captures the magnitude of what this group will deliver to shareholders over the next five years. Europe's top dividend in banking, we will distribute approximately EUR 16 billion between 2026 and 2030, more than 60% of our market cap. We will achieve this while still retaining about EUR 3 billion of excess of capital, giving us flexibility to pursue value accretive opportunities or further return capital to shareholders. Now, let me conclude with our journey. In 2022, we rebuilt the foundation, the reset of our business model, the capital increase, and the return to discipline.
Between 2023 and 2024, we restored credibility, profitable growth, declining risk, and the end of overhang or legacy issues. This was our renaissance. With acquisition of Mediobanca completed and integration already advancing, we enter a new phase as a leading competitive force in banking. A group that stand on if deep roots, but finally looks forward with scale, confidence, and the ability to shape its market rather than react to it. This is the new group, and together with Mediobanca, we move towards our next frontiers. We are ready to take your question.
Thank you. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Giovanni Razzoli, Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Good morning to everybody, thank you for taking my questions. I have a couple. The first one is on the distributions and specifically on the dividend. Your dividend policy is very attractive. I was wondering whether, as a part of it, you can consider to start also paying an interim dividend already from 2026, which is an approach that all your other peers in Italy have. That's my first question. Regarding the Danish Compromise, I would like to know whether you can share with us what is the timeline for application to ECB of the regulatory treatment. Again, on insurance, I was wondering, what are the assumptions that you have embedded in the business plan regarding the contribution from the JV with AXA, which, if they're not mistaken, expires in 2027?
If you can please share with us, out of the EUR 300 million of revenue synergies, how much is the contribution by division, more or less, where are those mostly concentrated in terms of divisions? The very last one, I was wondering whether you can consider to introduce a stock option plan for top management out of the achievement of these targets. Thank you.
Thank you for your question, Giovanni. As far as potential interim dividend is something that we are considering. As far as the joint venture with AXA, practically, we are not considering in the plan anything additionally than keeping our partnership. As you said, is expected to expire next year. I think this is one of the issue and topics that nicely we are going to have on our table, we expect only upside for this kind of topic. As far as Danish compromise, we are we have already engaged discussion with ECB. Let's see what practically we are going to additionally discuss with them.
As Andrea was mentioning, for the time being, we are not considering this benefit in our plan. The benefit potential, as we were showing, is around 50 bps. As we said, it's difficult to take any consideration on that, but we are confident that we will have a positive discussion with the authorities. As far as synergies by division, it's clear that the main benefit will come from the asset gathering and wealth management business.
Important contribution will come from retail and commercial banking, also in corporate investment banking, thanks to the synergies that can come by combining the balance sheet of Montepaschi with the strong capability in terms of advisory service that can provide by Mediobanca, we expect to have important benefit on that. I'm speaking about, of course, revenues, clear on cost. Is much more a source that becoming source of synergies that becoming from eliminating the overlapping position, particularly in head office. Stock option, yes, it's clear that in the, among the other system of retention rewarding, we will have program in terms of LTI and also retention program that will base on a system of stock option as it is already available in Mediobanca.
In Montepaschi, we have performance shares, but clearly we are going to unify the instruments for rewarding.
Thank you. The next question is from Ignacio Ulargui, BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Thanks very much for the presentation and for taking my questions. I have a couple of them as well. I mean, the first one, coming back to the distributions. On that EUR 16 billion distribution, if I remember correctly out of the presentation, when you laid out your expectations for the deal, you expected an accretive DPS. We expect a growing DPS in 2026 over 2025, and then growing onwards on that basis. The second question linked to distributions is, are you considering issuing AT1s in order to kind of improve that distribution capacity? Could you consider at some stage to exceed the 100% payout ratio, complementing it with a buyback at a given point in time? The second question on the business and the growth, particularly in deposits.
I mean, I find the growth in deposits a bit low. If we consider small GDP growth and certain inflation expectations that you have, still, we should see a bit of a faster deposit growth, particularly in terms of current accounts. I mean, could you, could it be some upside on that one? Do you feel there is any kind of conservatism in terms of deposit growth in the plan? Then, a final question on fees. When I just look to your fees, I do appreciate the growth in asset management and wealth management.
The banking fees growth, just wanted to get a bit of color, if that is more related on the commercial banking side, related with volume driven, because there is one component which I expect to be a headwind, which is kind of the basic banking fees in the long run. Just wanted to get a bit of your thoughts on what would be the driver of growth of commercial banking fees? Thank you.
Hello. Ciao, Nacho.
Ciao.
On the first point, Luigi will comment on the commercial drivers of deposits. Let's say that, our capital projections factor in, a broadly stable share overall, shareholders remuneration in 2026. On your other point, I let Luigi answer.
Okay, in terms of deposit, clearly, we are considering also to pay a bit of attention on net interest expenses. That's why, despite we are growing almost as a market, we are not growing particularly, even if we plan an important growth in terms of new customer coming, especially from personal financial advisors, that can leverage of the network of Montepaschi. Moreover, we have some program dedicated also to young people. That's why growing in customer, but not necessarily a strong growth in terms of deposit. We will see the trade-off between interest expenses and volumes, and then we can eventually decide to be more active and to push a bit more.
I think what is the focus today is to get important growth in terms of asset under management. Clearly, if there will be a sort of conversion coming from deposit to asset under management, we have to refuel completely the total stock on deposit. That's why already in some certain point, we are planning in any case, an important growth in terms of deposit. Fees in, on banking, clear asset management, we have good growth. I believe we have an important growth on banking fees. We count a lot on synergies that can come from the cooperation and the combination with Mediobanca, particularly on some areas of transactional service, where we want also to leverage on technology.
It will take a bit of time, I have to say. We have a significant portion that is all the trade finance and commission connected with the export, import, that today is very important as we are a key player in Italy in terms of Montepaschi. We will provide, extend this kind of services also to Mediobanca customer, and we expect from that to have also an important contribution that is coming from this kind of activity.
The next question is from Antonio Reale, Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Good morning, it's Antonio from Bank of America. I've got another question on distribution, please. You're targeting EUR 16 billion by 2030. I understand that comes with a 100% dividend payout. You're sitting on a large EUR 3 billion excess capital and even more, if I understand right, we take into account the Danish Compromise, which is not included, from my understanding, in those numbers. My question is, why hold so much capital through the plan? I understand the excess capital gives you optionality. I'm also conscious that, you know, you also have Generali stake that is worth something like EUR 7 billion on current market level. You're keeping optionality on optionality. What's the end use here that you plan to make for both your Generali stake and this excess capital?
Any color you can share, I think, will be very welcome. Second question is, you've gone through a lot of details on your targets for 2028 and 2030, which is great to see. Can you maybe also talk us through sort of your shorter term expectations and maybe lay out how you think 2026 is going to look like on some of the key PNL line items? I think it would be great to have something to hold on in current market conditions that is a little bit more shorter term. Thank you.
Okay, it's clear that this year is a particular year, no, because we are starting this integration process. We plan important combination. We are very confident about our bank of synergies to be realized. As we were always mentioning, the capital for us is an important tool. As Andrea was already underlining, EUR 60 billion distribution is something that I believe is an important remuneration for our shareholders. Taking into consideration also the 2026 will be a particular year, having in mind that we are going also to have integration costs to be considered.
Despite that, as Andrea mentioned, we aim at ensuring to our shareholder a total remuneration that will be broader in line with what has been distributed, that will be distributed this year. It's clear that we want to optimize as much as possible the capital. It's just a matter of timing, opportunity, and to see what is going on on the market. Clearly, if we are not going to have, in a relatively short period of time, opportunity of investing or a new business line that will further engine our capability to grow, we can take in consideration additional opportunity to reward our shareholder. It's something that, of course, is my personal opinion on that point.
We are aware, and we are confident that our shareholder, trusting us, will consider that our commitment to keep a remuneration that is at the top of what currently is available in terms of yield on the market, is something that we would like to confirm. Capital optimization is an opportunity. Let's see what is going to happen during the year and after being a bit advanced on integration and starting concretely to see how the group is working by the five business line that we were mentioning, we will explore all the potential that we have in order to further optimize the remuneration of our shareholder.
In terms of 2026, we are very confident from the commercial point of view, and we were already mentioning in February that the profit before tax is expected to be higher. We are confident also in terms of commercial results, because as we were saying, the expectation also in terms of total income are positive. Clearly, we are going to have some extraordinary costs connected with integration, but what I think is important that the network, Montepaschi and the franchise, Mediobanca franchise, are completely on board in keeping a pace that will enable us to fulfill a golden rule that normally is that having a sustainable flow of revenues, we expect to have a growing trend in all the key line of our PNL.
The next question is from Luis Pratas, Autonomous Research. Please go ahead.
Morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. My first one is on potential retention cost measures. In the last Mediobanca results, there were some departures in private banking that led to net outflows. Could you help us understand where you expect, when you expect these outflows to stabilize and potentially turn positive, and what concrete measures you are putting in place to achieve that? If you can provide the cost of that policy and any early evidence that is working. Sorry to come back on this, in terms of, you know, like, your synergy disclosures, you talk about, you know, detailed initiatives that you already identified, but I find it quite limited specifics on this initiative.
Maybe could you please talk us through, you know, what has been like the main initiatives and in which areas you think most of the revenue synergies will emerge? A few quick clarification. In terms of the 2026 pre-tax profit guidance, your guidance is go year on year. I wanted to ask whether this includes already the restructuring charges, the EUR 600 million pre-tax. Also in terms of the trajectory of synergies, do you expect to achieve the full run rate of the EUR 700 million in 2028 in line with the offer document, or is it after considering, you know, the delay on the measured timeline, et cetera? Thank you.
Okay. Hello, let's start from synergies. I think, in some way, we were already presenting, without giving precise figures on that, but it's clear that the main synergies that it was mentioned before is coming from first of all, the retail business because we are going to have a cross-selling in terms of daily banking activity, current account, cards, transaction, that is coming from customers, a Compass that will open, for example, the account in Montepaschi, and today they have account with other banks. In asset gathering, concrete example are just that we were already distributing some products that are produced from Mediobanca, in concrete case, SGR or Mediobanca, and we distributed through our network.
In this case, we are keeping the part of the production that normally was going outside the group in the group. These are the two concrete channels that we are already observing in terms of synergy. On corporate investment banking, we have already at least five deals that we completed by transferring opportunity of business from our corporate customers that require advisory service to Mediobanca and vice versa. These are day-by-day activity that normally we are doing day by day and are presenting gradually in our PNL, especially will be in the second part of this year. Overall, if we consider our estimation, I have to say that are completely in line with what we are realizing, you know?
In terms of percentage, it's clear if we want to see in terms of contribution, if we put all together, it's clear that retail plus Compass will have at least 1/3 of this synergy. We are going to have at least corporate investment banking that can have another important bulk. If we consider asset guarantee gathering and high-end private banking, almost the remaining part. There can be a sort of different timing in getting the synergies, but at the end, we are confident that all synergies we plan will be materialized.... We already mentioned that we expect to have the full exploitation of the synergies in the three years.
We were saying that probably we're going to have a level of synergies that can be also slightly higher than what we planned. The majority of synergies that we set in our original projection, will be completed in the first three years. As far as retention plan, as I was saying already, Mediobanca put in place some actions. I know that they are reinforcing this action with additional initiative. Overall, the cost that we are considering are between EUR 60 million-EUR 70 million to three years.
My personal view is that once that the situation in terms of reorganization was clarified, I believe also some kind of uncertainty will be removed, and I believe we will be in the position as I'm already observing having some contacts to have an opposite direction in terms of banker. Some bankers will join Mediobanca or Premier rather than leaving.
This doesn't mean that we don't expect to have zero turnover, because this is a normal activity, especially because there are some companies that have a very aggressive plan of development and growing, but I believe we are in the position, given our brand, given our initiative and the expectation in terms of growth that we have, and development of the business, of private banking, asset gathering, the corporate investment bank, I'm sure that we can keep the best talent and also to attract new one.
There was a question on the guidance on profit before tax. Profit before tax is after restructuring cost. Keep in mind that the bulk of the cost of the restructuring charges will be born between 2026 and 2027, depending on the implementation of the initiatives, also with regard to the IT integration.
Thank you very much. maybe can I just do a quick follow-up? In terms of the full run rate of the synergies, is that expected at the beginning of 2028, or maybe only at the end of 2028? I think that's important to clarify in terms of, you know, our modeling and so on. Thank you.
We planned from the very beginning when we launched the public tender, that the synergies will be distributed throughout the three years. Clearly, we said we have part of synergies for 2028, that will be in the second part of the year. At the end, all the synergies within 2020, but 2020, we mean, at the end of 2020.
The next question is from Lorenzo Giacometti in Intermonte. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. I have just a few. The first one is on the consumer finance unit. I mean, regarding the growth you're targeting, how much of this growth is linked to the expansion plan? The second one is on capital. Maybe you already told us, but I mean, it's just a follow-up. Are the 50 basis points driving from the merger included in your projections? Always regarding capital, do you plan...
I mean, given that the merger will likely bring a slightly dilutive effect on the per share data like DPS, do you plan or have you considered, I mean, to launch a share buyback program after the merger to counter dilute this effect? That's all. Thank you.
Ciao. I start replying on your questions two and three, Luigi is gonna answer to question one. Actually, questions two and three can be replied jointly. Meaning that the 50 bps are factoring the capital projections. I previously referred to our intention to ensure a broadly stable overall shareholders remuneration in 2026. Which means that since 2026 will be a peculiar year, as mentioned by Luigi, i.e., restructuring charges.
The merger that will happen towards the end of the year. We will not get the full benefit of the minorities of Mediobanca. When we will sit down in February 27 to define the shareholders remuneration of 2026, we will consider a mix of dividend and share buyback that is factoring our capital projections.
Compass, as we were measuring the total revenues of Compass, are expected to grow up to 2028, around EUR 300 million. It's clear that the portion that we have in this bulk of revenues relating to expansion abroad are still marginal, no, because we want to do it in a very professional way, so we are exploring the market. We are trying to understand also how the process there, in terms of competitors and market availability, is working, and think we will have a sort of preliminary stage in order to understand the best way to explore, and the market, that's why still we have a marginal component inside our business plan.
Hopefully, can be even higher, but as we used to be, normally, we like to be conservative and eventually to overcome the targets.
Okay, thank you, very clear.
The next question is from Manuela Meroni, Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead.
Yes, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. The first one is on the sensitivity of your target to a different interest rate scenario. I'm wondering to I would like to know what would be your target with in a Euribor 50 basis point lower compared with what you have assumed in your business plan projection. The second question relates the real estate project that was in Monaco, that was originally in the business plan of Mediobanca. I'm wondering if this project is still in place, and if we should assume the EUR 500 million worth of this project to be eventually distributed to shareholders through dividend. The third question regards the risk-weighted asset evolution.
The risk-weighted asset evolution is lower compared with the commercial loans evolution, so I'm wondering if you have, let's say, assumed some capital optimization action in your evolution of the Common Equity Tier 1. Finally, on the AT1, there have been already a question, but I didn't get the answer. Are you planning to issue any AT1 in your business plan? Thank you.
I try to go in order. RWA growth, yes, we are considering some SRTs that might be worth on average EUR 2 billion RWA. That's the first point. The other question was the real estate project in Monte Carlo. Yes, definitely it is still in place. The, our colleagues at Mediobanca are working on it, and this is definitely value creative for the group. AT1 in the business plan, there are no AT1 issuances currently factoring in the business plan, but we might consider them in the context of potential further capital optimization going forward.
At the moment, they are not factoring in our capital plan. There was maybe a fourth question that or I might have.
Yeah, I asked for the sensitivity.
The sensitivity, sorry.
The sensitivity.
The sensitivity at group level, actually, one of the benefits of the combination is that, let's say the overall sensitivity has decreased to an AI. At group level now, for one of the bps, parallel shift of the curve, the sensitivity is around EUR 150 million. Quite low considering the current size of the group.
Thank you. Any, let's say, capital gain related to the real estate project or other project will be distributed, so your dividend policy is based on the stated net income, not the adjusted one?
Yes, this is based on the stated net income, so the capital gains, we expect, actually on the real estate project, in Monte Carlo will be part of the distributable net profit.
Thank you.
The next question is from Noemi Peruch, Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I have a few, especially on one-offs. Can you elaborate how big is the one-off impact in your estimates? If you can kind of quantify this through time. If I'm not mistaken, you mentioned EUR 60-70 million retention cost plan for the next three years. I was just wondering if this is on top of the EUR 500 million integration cost, and if we can expect them 100% in 2026, or maybe a phase in. Related to this, what is your net profit base to calculate a 100% payout in terms of what adjustments shall we consider?
You mentioned for 2026 distribution, a mix between dividends and share buybacks. Is it fair to assume that you will pay 100% of the payout on the stated EPS, and the rest is on share buyback, but matching in terms of absolute value, the distribution in 2025? Lastly, on integration, what is how come the agreement between the two banks, between yourself and Mediobanca is stalling? Is it a matter of price? Is it a matter of structure? Do you see any execution risk on this? Thank you.
On your questions, the integration cost, yeah, it's what you said, meaning that it's the EUR 500+ the retention cost. Putting all together now, we are around EUR 600 million. As mentioned, replying to Manuela, the bulk is in 2026, then a good chunk in 2027, and then bits and pieces the following year. The base to calculate the 100% payout ratio, as replied before, is the stated net profit. With regard to your assumption, question number three, 2026 distribution, the way how we factor that in our projection is that, yes, we assumed a 100% payout ratio on the stated net profit.
That as mentioned, in 2026, might be affected by one-off items. We have assumed an amount of share buyback that would allow to maintain a broadly stable, let's say, theoretical DPS. I mean, summing up, the cash dividend and share buyback for 2026. There is a question on execution risk as a result of the agreements with Mediobanca?
I think, there were two press release this morning that are showing, that, is a normal process, that, has to be put in place carefully because it's clear that they are correlated parties. I think the fact that, the two board of director issue a press release saying, that we expect to come to exchange ratio and to the merger plan for the 10th of March, is already answering, to your question.
Thank you. Just to, just to clarify, the EUR 60 million-EUR 70 million retention cost plan, is it just for 2026, or is it a per year for the next three years?
It's accumulated for the next three years.
Thank you.
The next question is from Hugo Cruz, KBW. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you for the time. I have a bunch of questions. In no particular order. My first question is: Why are you keeping the Generali stake in the separate legal entity with the other, you know, the Mediobanca brand? I was wondering if there's any operational synergies from doing so. My second question is around your international growth plans. You mentioned plans to enter Poland for consumer finance, expand CIB into new countries, create wealth management hubs in Luxembourg and Switzerland. I was wondering if you could quantify the costs of these expansions, and if the costs are included in the plan, but also the revenues, you know.
For the wealth management hubs, I think you mentioned the 5 million potential is not in the numbers, but I was wondering about the rest. How dependent is the plan on international growth? My third question is around the HR costs. They are, you know, in your waterfall, they are EUR 200 million of FTE development. I was wondering how much of this is from the retention packages, and how much is net FTE growth to support the group expansion? My fourth question is around when I look at wealth management growth, you have a lot of financial advisor growth. It seems to me like the growth in the number of financial advisors is similar to the growth in AUM and AUC, so there's no operational leverage.
I thought with AI, financial advisors will be able to service more clients. If you could give a bit more color there. Is it that, you know, there's latent growth that will come after 2028 because it takes some time for the financial advisors to kind of mature? You know, and my final question is around the 50 basis points of capital benefited completion. Is that just from an additional share issuance, or is there anything else? Thank you.
Okay. The growth in terms of HR are not connected with retention, because the retention, as Andrea was mentioning, are already planned in the restructuring cost. The growth is connected with the fact that we want also to hire new people in order to give additional engine to the growth. As is a plan, as we were mentioning from the very beginning, the combination, the co- combination that is based on significant growing all dimension, is clear that we are efficient, but for the time being, we are particularly focused in growing. Generally, was left, planned to be left under Mediobanca because they know how they have a particular setup in order to match to manage this investment.
I think it's proper to leave there because as it works very well up to now, I think it's better if we are focused in making all the synergies in place and particularly on the operational side. In terms of the international expansion, it's clear that we are, as I was mentioning, we are not considering any revenues coming from this business from the time being. As we have already hub there, where we want to start, also the cost will be very marginal, because we are starting from some analysis to see if our idea to expand the business there can bring a positive outcome. So for the time being, costs are very marginal, and revenues are not considered.
There was a question on the impact, so the 50 bps deriving from the merger. This is the net impact deriving from the capital increase, which is necessary for the merger. You lose the minorities benefit, and you have, let's say, additional goodwill, because at the moment, the goodwill is considered just for 87%. The net impact of all of that is around 50 bps.
Thank you very much.
The next question is a follow-up from Ignacio Ulargui, BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Thanks very much, for taking my extra question. Sorry for this, but just to have a very clear view on the distributions and the dividends, because I think it's quite important. You have said that you're gonna generate around EUR 16 billion of dividends between 2026 and 2030, and on top of that, we should see a buyback to offset the impact of the new shares issued to buy back the minorities from Mediobanca. Is that the right way to understand it or not?
Actually, EUR 16 billion is a round number that factors in also the impact of the share buyback. Again, the impact of the share buyback is, let's say, some hundreds million EUR. In the context of the rounding, it is included but does not give you much additional information, I would say.
Thank you.
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star one on your telephone. Gentlemen, Mr. Lovaglio, there are no more questions registered at this time. I turn the conference back to you for any closing remarks.
Thank you very much for all your questions and participation to this meeting, and then, let's see each other for the next quarterly review, the results.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over, and you may disconnect your telephones.