Good afternoon. This is the Conference Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the conference call on the BPER Group's full year 2023 consolidated results. As a reminder, all participants are in listen only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on the telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Nicola Sponghi, head of investor relations. Mr. Sponghi, you have the floor.
... Everybody, and thank you for joining. Before I give the floor to Mr. Montani, our CEO, and the CFO, Mr. Santi, for the presentation of BPER Banca's full year 2023 financial results, please note that you will find our presentation and press release on our corporate website. Let me remind you that the Q&A session is reserved for financial analysts, so I would request to limit themselves to two questions each in order to give everybody the opportunity to ask questions. Please, Mr. Montani, you have the floor. Thank you. Good evening. Thank you for joining. I think that in the presentation last time, we said that this situation should have been framed as a positive as positive results.
In fact, I, I think I can confirm it, because the macroeconomic environment last year was characterized by geopolitical tensions that introduced elements of concern and uncertainty. Nevertheless, thanks to the efforts of the entire structure that I want to thank, and that worked very well to make the operating engine efficient and optimize all of the lines of business. The bank succeeded in achieving excellent results that go well beyond the favorable banking system cycle, confirming its revenue generation capacity. I would say that when I say that it went well beyond the cycle of the Italian banking system, what I mean is that unlike the other banks, we were confronted over these last 2-2.5 years of work.
We were confronted with the challenge of achieving the results while something else was brought forward. And I would like to remind everybody of the effort that was made, because I really think that that was a precious effort that all of the structures should be thanked for. We integrated 988 branches with the two banks we took over, and we've onboarded millions of new customers, 2.5 million, and 1,500 billion of assets and EUR 50-60 billion of balance sheet assets. And this is the effort that I was thinking of. But having said this, I would also say that the results for the period went even better than the trend for the entire banking system.
2023 was also a particularly significant year because we were able to complete all, and I would underline the adjective, all the actions that we had set out in the business plan for 2022-2025, that we presented to the market on the 10th of June, 2022. Which means that we closed the plan in one year and a half. That was supposed to be closed by 2025. We did all of the transactions. We completed the 81 transaction in January. That was not in the plan, but we did it.
So this means that we could complete our business plan in less than two years, and we are absolutely proud of that, and that's why I have thanked, and I thank again, all of the structure, both the head office and the branch network that supported us with the customers. The year closed with a net profit of EUR 1,519.5 million, inter alia, net of non-recurring costs that we had already talked about in the nine-month report for EUR 294.5 million in relation to the workforce optimization maneuver. If we did not consider this, then the real net profit, the actual net profit, would be over EUR 1,700 million.
We're very proud of the agreements that we reached with the trade unions, which is a source of great satisfaction for us. Because this will enable the onboarding of new resources, favoring youth employment in a logic of generational turnover. The transaction, the maneuver that we worked upon, was done because we were convinced of this maneuver, and we looked at and to the future development of this bank. Operating profit exceeded EUR 5,260 million, up 39.7% year-on-year, thanks to the steep acceleration in net interest income that all of the Italian banking system benefited from, and the positive results in net commission income that was quite good.
All of the data that we presented in November during the nine-month report were exceeded. The operating costs in the third quarter mark a positive trend. I would say it's an absolutely positive trend, and the operating efficiency is improving. Our cost income ratio running, the recurring cost income ratio is 50.7% versus 64.1% at the end of 2022, and the number of employees and branches has gone down according to the numbers we had already presented. Overall funding settled at EUR 289 billion, +3.9% year-on-year, and net loans are settled at EUR 88.2 billion, up 1.8% quarter-over-quarter.
I think last time we talked, we said that we expected by the end of the year, the trend would be in line with previous quarters, and in fact, it was even better. The credit quality improvement is confirmed, fully confirmed. The gross and net NPE ratio are respectively 2.4% and 1.2% down, compared to the end of 2022, when they were respectively 3.2% and 1.4%. The annualized cost of credit proved to be steadily down to 48 basis points at the end of 2023. It was 64 basis points at the end of 2022. High capital strength is confirmed with a CET1 ratio at year-end of 14.5%, well in excess of the SREP requirement.
Liquidity continues to be on levels of excellence, with ratios well above the minimum thresholds. Respectively, LCR is at 161% and NSFR at 128%. The sound capital position, but also all of the positive results that I have mentioned, were achieved as a collective effort, because all of the departments of the bank contributed to this positive, performance. So the sound, sound capital position, and these results enable us to propose a dividend of EUR 0.30 per share, which, is equal to a payout of 30%, approximately. I would give the floor to Gian Luca Santi, the CFO, who will give the details of the results, for this, year. Thank you. Good evening, everybody. Well, we'll go into the details of the evolution of the, numbers starting from total funding.
So direct and indirect deposits, as you can see, we are presenting a growth both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. We are basically commenting the last quarter now, and you can see that there has been an increase, again, in terms of assets under custody. In particular, we had an important inflow in the last period, and we're starting to benefit from a market effect that was supportive, particularly in the last few months. As far as direct deposits are concerned, we can look at the lower part of the slide. You can see that as against the first half of the year, when you may remember that we had lost about EUR 7 billion worth of short-term funding.
In the second part of the year, in the second six months of the year, we could prevent these type of outflows and convert it into partly deposits and certificates, and so term deposits. On the other side, we also strengthened the duration of our institutional funding by issuing bonds and structuring, in this case, some repos. This was specifically down to lengthen the duration, given the significant weight that current accounts are having on our income statement, basically. I would also like to underline net funding in terms of assets under management, EUR 1.2 billion, or even more than that, which means that our network could in fact convert the current accounts and deposits into assets under management when they were looking for higher yields.
This is a very important result based on the, and also in view of the activities that we will carry out in 2024. As far as net loans, net loans are concerned, in the last quarter, we had a growth, because of some important transactions in the factoring department and area. So you know that, corporates, develop their own activities towards the end of, of the year. But also we had, some good, results in retail with, dedicated, campaigns for mortgage loans, because mortgages, of course, are, flagship products in our, mix of products. And, and then we, we, we try to develop that on an ongoing basis. Then from a point of view of year-on-year changes, I would say there's, been a drop by EUR 3 billion.
This drop is reflective, on the one hand, of a decrease in retail mortgage loans, in particular, because of the increase in interest rates that did not favor the development and growth in mortgage loans to retail customers. Then there was also a drop in the corporate sector, because businesses preferred to use their own liquidity to try and avoid this increase in exposures and to prevent incurring the cost of borrowing. And then the weight of mortgage loans is 50% fixed rate loans, and I would say that 67% in residential loans are fixed rates and 20% is floating rates.
We can confirm the loan to deposit ratio that is very strong at 74%, which bears witness to our attention and conservativeness in lending. In terms of asset quality, once again, we can confirm the indicators that we already mentioned elsewhere, with 2.4% and 1.2% in terms of growth and net NPE ratio. I would underline that there's been a variation in the stock, because this year we completed disposals for about EUR 1 billion, of which EUR 820 million worth is bad loans, and the rest is UTPs. This, of course, has shifted the composition of these ratios a little bit. And then there's another important thing, that is the coverage.
Coverage is once again strong, even though a little bit decreasing compared to previous to prior periods, because we disposed of high vintage, high coverage loans, and so the coverage of the loans remaining is of course a little bit lower. There's another important change that I would underline. You can see there's a reduction by EUR 800 million in Stage 2 loans. This variation is due to a bulk reclassification to performing loans of the Stage 2 loans that had been classified as such during the COVID period. I'm referring to the hotels and tourism sectors, and the reclassification of these Stage 2 loans of course brings about a positive change in terms of Stage 2 stock.
As far as the portfolio is concerned, as we had already declared in other presentations, our intention was that of reducing the stock. The objective was EUR 2 billion, that, we could achieve by the end of the year. We worked particularly on the government, bonds, Italian government bonds, by reducing, their amount. And so of course, the coverage also has changed, with an increase in duration that you can see reflected, in, the center part, central part of the slide, where, at, there has been a change, because the hedging, of course, has had an impact. As you can see, the yield, quarterly average yield in the portfolio is once again on an uptrend in the fourth quarter of 2023 and settles at 3%.
Moving on to the P&L, we wanted to present the two versions, so the accounting part and the recurring P&L, where we have reversed the impact of the redundancy fund, that or the early retirement fund, that we of course had the impact of in the last quarter of 2023. We had given you the impact in the guidance by EUR 300 million, and in fact, it was EUR 294.5 million, with a tax effect of EUR 82.6 million. This is the only difference between the accounting and the recurring P&L. I would move on to net interest income now, where you can see the evolution in the slide 615. You can see that net interest income is once again increasing in the last quarter.
We may comment that on a quarterly basis, because you may know that the P&L of Carige, and actually the consolidation of Carige's P&L, has been there, so to say, since June, so since the third quarter of 2022. So the scope is not like for like, so to say. But this +4% is reflected in the chart on the right-hand side of the slide, with the commercial part contributing 18.4%. If you remember, there were some subsidies, so to say, that were given to the population hit by the floods in the third quarter. And then there's the... You can see the details there, and there's going to be a penalization of EUR 40 million in terms of net interest income.
We are lengthening the duration of funding, and there's a positive contribution from the securities portfolio. We have separated the TLTRO effect because next year, actually in March this year, we are going to repay the last tranche of EUR 1.7 billion of the TLTRO, and so there's not going to be any contribution from the TLTRO anymore. The spread is increasing, continues to increase, and in the last quarter, there's 18 basis points. We're giving this view of the spread net of the ecobonus effect, because otherwise it would be 3.55, net of the ecobonus effect, 3.55%. As for net commission income, once again, we confirm the guidance that we had given.
We thought of a generation of EUR 500 million worth of net commission income on a quarterly basis, and we confirmed that we have over EUR 2 billion for the year. And the good performance in the year is due to the performance in insurance with the commission bonus because of the levels of production that we achieved. EUR 25 million is accounted for by that, and then assets under management and assets under custody. Obviously, on the one hand, there's the effect of net funding, EUR 1.2 billion, and then there's the placement of government bonds in the last quarter that accounts for EUR 4.7 million, and then also good placement of certificates.
As for the net commission income from traditional banking, I would say that the good activity and performance of businesses generated part of the net commission income for about EUR 5 million that also contributes to this trend. As for operating costs, we have already mentioned the EUR 294.4 million worth of the HR maneuver, with EUR 49 million being accounted for by the renewal of the labor agreement. If you remember, we were speaking about EUR 100 million, and EUR 100 million is the effect that we're going to have in 2024, because it will cover for the entire year. So EUR 49 million this year and EUR 100 million next year in 2024.
Then as for the other items, the increase in depreciation and amortization reflects some write-offs in association with Carige, and this is real estate write-offs and hardware and IT write-downs. And then, as far as other administrative expenses are concerned, we continue to invest in development projects, digitalization projects, and these costs are associated to the over 100 projects we are developing in relation to technology. Just a few words on cost income, which is now 51%. There were very important actions taken in terms of headcount. About 1,891 people exited, as against 700 are hired, so 200 ...
So the turnover has changed, and the branches were down by 278, with the details being accounted for by the takeover of Banco Desio and other closedowns during the year, set out in the business plan. As far as the cost of risk is concerned, we've already mentioned the indicators. In 2023, we're at around 50% NPE coverage, 53%, and we can confirm the cost of risk for 2023 of 48 basis points. There has been no deterioration of credit that had been expected because of the deterioration in interest rates and the increase in interest rates.
But prudentially, we wanted to put 50 basis points almost, because as we said in the past, we want to be ready for any type of changes in the scenarios. We once again confirm the total cumulative overlays of up to EUR 277 million. In the first months of 2024, we have already talked about that, but there's going to be a different management of non-performing loans from the very beginning of this year, basically. Because we have developed with Gardant an initiative that is going to be 70% owned by Gardant Bridge and 30% by BPER, whereby we're going to manage a stock of credit for an amount of EUR 2.2 billion with a servicing platform.
And on top of that, we have signed a 10-year servicing agreement that envisages the management of this platform, the management in this platform of new UTP inflows and new bad loan inflows. 50% of UTPs and 90% of the new bad loan inflows will be managed with a capital gain of EUR 150 million. Just a quick comment on liquidity. We confirm the total eligible assets of around EUR 30 billion, and I would like to underline that there are deposits with the ECB for an amount of EUR 9.2 billion. The LCR is of around 160%.
It's a little bit higher than the guidance we provided, because we would like to go to 140-150%, because we are, of course, getting ready to repay the last tranche of the LCR TLTRO in March. So the indicators, the liquidity indicators are very robust. And moving on to the capital walk year-on-year, you can see here that there's an organic generation of capital that is very substantial. The only item that I think is quite interesting to comment on is calendar provisioning. We have gathered some of the guidance and indications that came from the supervisors, and we've closed a shortfall we had in calendar provisioning for 2023 and 2024 as well. So now our position vis-à-vis is no impact from calendar provisioning. At this point, I think I have completed the presentation.
I will give the floor again to the CEO. Well, before I give you some guidelines on the outlook for 2025, which I will go into soon, I would like to add just a few things on the transactions we completed. When I said that we closed the business plan, then I now listened to Gian Luca, that who was speaking about Carige. But it's true, I mean, Carige's transaction also was completed. There are some questions coming up every now and then. To what extent has it been completed? It has been completed 100%. There's nothing that we are ... Of course, we're fine-tuning some little things, as always happens, but the project to us is closed.
Having said this, coming to 2024, we're just at the beginning, so I'm not being prudent. I'm just calculating based on what I have on the table. So the bank worked very well, also to lay the foundations for a solid future. We expect, in terms of net interest income, to have a trend that is going to be a little bit going down for a number of factors, the compulsory reserve, the effects of the TLTRO. There may be a little bit of a contraction in terms of the trend also in the interest rates and the curve.
So even though there may be this slight contraction, we are absolutely convinced that, whatever is lost on this front, if any, will be made up for in terms of, net fees and commissions, particularly in the area of assets under management. And I told you that there's also a program and project we have launched, for Banca Cesare Ponti, that is going to, be initiated and kicked off in just, 10 days. It's an area that we worked intensively on last year and even the year before, and we have gained market shares, and I think we'll be able to, you know, to be at full speed soon.
As far as the operating costs are concerned, we are confident they will be in line with the costs we had this year or last year. And as far as net profit is concerned, net of the three hundred and eighty million of DTAs that, of course, inflated the net profit compared to the recurring net profit. Everything is recurring, but the real truth is that the DTAs will not be there next year. So net of these EUR 380 million worth of DTAs, I think we will be in line with the profit we had this year. So this is going to be more or less the range we're going to fit ourselves in.
Fifty basis points should be the cost of risk or at least stable with what we had this year. And net profit is going to be stable, and the CET1 ratio is going to be over 14.5% that we had this year. And so this is the data I can give you now, and I will try to update you as far as we, you know, during in progress. But I have completed the presentation, and we are willing to answer your questions. This is the conference call operator. We're going to start the question and answer session now. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two.
Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. First question is from the Italian conference by Mr. Giovanni Razzoli of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead, sir. Good evening. I would like to have two clarifications. When you said 23 basis points that you recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023 in slide 21 in terms of the calendar provisioning. Can you clarify a little bit what assets you are referring to? And can you give us some further guidance? And then, when you talked about the EUR 380 million worth of DTAs, now you do not have any DTAs, and so off balance, and that could be a buffer for the future.
So can you, can you give us more color about the DTAs, please? Mr. Santi answering. Of course, Giovanni, we were referring to loans. So calendar provisioning envisaged a certain extent of amortization of these loans. Our evaluation is different in term, but in a prudential logic, we are leveraging capital, and so that's why we're amortizing this difference, which does not happen in terms of income statement, because we think we will make up for them. So you have this correction in terms of capital, but not in income statement terms. And then we still have EUR 46 million DTAs remaining. Thank you. Next question is from Andrea Lisi of Equita. Yes, thank you for taking my question. My first question is about the net profit guidance you're giving, and I would like to ask you for clarification.
Does it include the EUR 150 million capital gain contribution from Gardant, or does it not? Then, can you give us guidance about the trajectory for dividends that you expect from now on? And, is it reasonable for us to project the same trend line for the future, or do you think that you, you, you may do something different in the future? And then in terms of net interest income, can you give us some further color about your assumptions? So in terms of evolution of interest rates and deposit and beta on deposits, and then I understand it's quite early, but can you give us some assumptions for 2025 as well?
Well, as far as the net profit guidance, of course, the guidance we gave you is recurring, so it does not include the capital gain on the platform. Then in terms of the dividend trajectory, it's quite simple. We're still working on the business plan we're presenting, and so we had given some guidance for the end of 2025, but now we are 30% done. We are on a linear trajectory compared to the business plan, and so as we said before, the business plan will need to be updated. It will be updated. The board of directors mandate is going to expire, and then probably the new board will update it.
But we are in line with the business plan and having completed 30% in 2023, I think, we did some good steps forward, and we will go on in this direction. Mr. Santi is adding that, as far as the interest rates are concerned, we have closed the 2023 with an average interest rate of 3.4, and so the assumption is 3.6. Which means that, now the interest rates are going up a little bit, but not... And so our assumption is 3.9, but we are witnessing a 0.25 decrease every quarter, which means that, in the end, we will have a 3.6 on average. This is the approach we have adopted.
And then, the beta is flat, and with the actions we have initiated, I think you may remember that our sensitivity was 100 basis points with 100 basis point shift, was EUR 80 million in September. Now we are at 35, which means that the hedging action made it so that we were close to EUR 8 billion in September. Now we're working on a stock of EUR 12 billion. So this is the view of the interest rates we have and how we're moving. The coverage, of course, moves accordingly. Thank you. Next question is from Marco Nicolai, from Jefferies. Good evening. I would like to focus, if possible, on revenues.
If you think of revenues beyond 2024, going into 2025, even though it's far away, but if you look at total revenues, do you think that higher commissions may offset the lower net interest income effect, and this is my first question. Then second question is, what is the scenario, interest rate scenario that you prefer? Of course, if they, if interest rates continue to be this high, there may be a difficulty in terms of asset quality and also the pricing cost, maybe. But, if they go down, you will lose interest rate income, net interest income. So what's the best level interest rates should be at? And then if you could tell me more about sensitivity, because I was not clear on what you said before. Well, Mr. Montani is answering.
Yes, I think the revenues are sustainable. It may be too early to make forecasts, as you said, but based on the experience we have gained over these last two years, I think we are more familiar with that network, both the historical network and the network we have acquired with the mergers. And I think we have very important opportunities for increasing and growing. Then what's the preferable interest rate scenario? Of course, I would say if they go up, it's better. But then I should also say that, first of all, the scenario we have today is much different from what we had in the past, because now it's regular. It was not regular when the interest rates were below zero, that was more of a Japanese scenario.
Now, of course, if interest rates go up, for sure, there may also be some inconvenience, as you were saying before or hinting at, and it's possible. But we must also say that, as the others did, we have been very prudential. We were very prudential in the past, and that's why sometimes we were penalized. And sometimes also in your questions, you were saying that we were being too prudential, that our cost of credit was too high. The policy we adopted in the past was very conservative, but now we've got some lines of defense that we have set up so that if the scenario of the interest rate goes up, then and of course, it brings about some inconvenience in terms of quality of assets. I think that we are very well equipped now.
I would also say that even though the scenario I expect, or that I desire, is a scenario with the interest rates ranging between 2% and 3%, because that would be normal, I think that there's no opportunity for seeing higher interest rates, even if though it's true that the interest rates have increased a little bit. But looking at the short term, on a quarterly basis, the hikes have been minimal. So from November, I would say that the scenario has been quite stable. But Gian Luca may add something in terms of sensitivity instead. That was the third part of your question.
Well, of course, if today's sensitivity is -100 basis points, -EUR 35 million, it means that if the interest rates go down by 100 basis points, we will lose EUR 35 million at, whereas, with these interest rates, we're gaining. Matching the, drop in interest rates coverage and the effects on, the, on loans, it's not easy. So the message we're trying to convey is that we are bracing ourselves for a drop of 25.25 basis points, on a quarterly basis in 2024. What message comes from our scenar- from our models? I told you, EUR 35 million from a minus, 100 basis point scenario is one thing, but the economic value works on 200 basis points level.
In September, with -200 basis points, we had a loss of EUR 500 million value, which means that the fair value of assets and liabilities, as compared to this trend in rates, would have given EUR 500 million worth of a loss. Now, we have a -100, which means that we are preparing ourselves for a decline in interest rates with a flat beta that has been, and the model that is estimated with at a 75% retail or 67% retail and 30% corporate, of less than 10%. So these are the assumptions that we are using for the evolution of net interest income. Next question is from Fabrizio Bernardi, from Intermonte. Good evening, everybody.
Sorry, I got connected quite late, so by reading your press release, I was saying that there's a proposal for a cash dividend of 30%. No, I'm sorry, 35% payout and EUR 0.30 dividend. I have perceived that some may have already asked about some questions about the payout you expect for the future, but would you be so kind as to repeat what the guidance was? Because it's a point in time here where many banks have a very substantial remuneration policy or dividend payout policy for their shareholders, whereas yours is quite low. I was expecting something more. So honestly, I would like to understand what calculations underlie these EUR 0.30 per share that you're giving.
Well, maybe you were not yet with us when we said that, thanks to the positive trends that we observed in the overall scenario and in capital, we have resolved upon a dividend of EUR 0.30, which is a payout of about 30%. I am sorry you are judging it as being low. We have made our calculations. We should start by saying that two years ago, we gave EUR 0.06, then we gave EUR 0.12, and now we are at EUR 0.30. The business plan was set out where we had planned for a certain growth trend with a payout of 50% by 2025. So we are probably even ahead of time compared with the business plan. What were the calculations we based ourselves upon?
We based ourselves upon a certain level of capitalization, and that could guarantee for the development of the bank. Probably you were not yet connected, but I was reminding everybody that the bank really made a substantial leap forward in terms of a number of branches, the 2.5 million customers that we have acquired, and all of this effort was made, and for sure, we worked intensively in line with the business plan. What are we planning for the future? We're still basing ourselves on the business plan that we presented on tenth of June 2022, and this is what we have on our tables, and this what we are—we keep following up on, and we're pursuing the objectives we set out in the business plan.
We said that the business plan will need to be reviewed, and it will be reviewed this year. It's quite probable that it will be reviewed shortly, but the board of directors' term is going to expire in April, so it's not going ... This board of directors are reviewing it, probably then, then the next board of directors will, and based on the new business plan, the bank will be more accurate in terms of payout as well. But so far, we have been complying with what we promised, and I hope that you have understood what the intentions are that we have.
Of course, we want to favor our shareholders, but to do that, we need to maintain a solid, capital, solid liquidity, and, we want to have a bank that can look to the future, because otherwise it will be impossible. We do not want to, you know, give a good impression and then not be successful in the future. We would like to continue growing. I would underline that up to two years ago, the bank was completely different. No, I understand, and I thank you for your answer. I was referring to the fact that common equity is quite, sizable, because it's 14.5%. Yes, I do not want to interrupt you, but, I was being provocative a little bit. I understand, and I thank you for your question. I understand very well.
We've got 14.5% common equity, but we also have to look around ourselves. Up to two years ago, I would have said it's extremely high, but when I look at the common equity of the other banks, they are all at very high levels. So I could also expect that maybe tomorrow morning, the ECB may be asking, maybe making their own requests, and that's why we want to be safe. And I'm looking to both Italian peers and the international peers, and so we want to have a sustainable growth. But I understand what you're saying, but when a bank has got a good capital position, then there's more certainty for the shareholders for the future. Thank you very much.
Next question is from Noemi Peruch from Mediobanca. Please, Noemi, you have the floor. I would like to have a clarification about sensitivity. 2023 net interest income was up 78% year-on-year, with 300 basis points, over 330 basis points viewable, and that's carry J to be taken account of, but for sure, the increase has been sizable. Sensitivity implies a 100% reduction in net interest income with interest rates going down by 100 basis points. So there's a very substantial adjustment that I would like to ask for some details about. So I would like to know more about the hedging, and what instruments or tools you're using and what duration you have adopted and what about the beta?
Is it the same as in 2023? Is it higher? Well, Mr. Santi is answering. We have given all of the information. We're working on EUR 12 billion worth of stock with assets and liabilities. We're not giving the details about that. We're working with a beta that is the same as in the last quarter of 2023, because we have analyzed the beta and it has not changed at all. We gave you the interest rates. I can give you details quarter by quarter, but 3.8 in the second quarter of 2024, 3.55 in the third quarter 2024, and then we think we will land at 3.30 in the last quarter of 2024. So these are our assumptions. Thank you very much.
Just a follow-up question on your deposit beta. Can you give us some more details? Probably I lost the details before, but average beta for 2023 and beta for 2024, I'm sorry, for the fourth quarter of 2023. I would confirm what we said. We are basically at below 10% retail plus corporate beta, which is what was generated in the first half of the year and was not modified in the second half of the year. It's been flat, actually. It's always been around that level. Next question is from this channel, from Hugo Cruz.
Hi. Thank you for your time.
Good afternoon.
Hi, can you hear me? Thank you for the time. I have three questions. One, on the NII, a couple of clarifications. So first of all, the Emilia-Romagna moratoria, is it just, is it just a one-off in Q4, or do you expect an impact in later quarters as well? Also, on NII, can you please talk about the impact of the Ecobonus more? I mean, it's been ... The benefit keeps going up, can you? What are you assuming for 2024, and when you expect to fully lose this benefit? Then on capital, do you expect any positive or negative effects in 2024 from regulation? And if you could give guidance on Basel IV for 2025.
Finally, with the new board, do you expect that they will announce a new business plan or it will be more of the same? Thank you.
There was a problem with the fourth part of your question, sorry.
Perhaps on the new board. You know, you talked about that they will revisit the capital distribution targets, but I was wondering if they might revisit the entire plan and come up with a new business plan later in the year, or it's not something that you expect.
As far as the moratoria that were granted to Emilia-Romagna, we confirm what we said, and we do not expect any further implications. Then as far as the Ecobonus is concerned, the amount is EUR 180 million, and we will see what we can do this year. But as far as capital is concerned, yeah, for 2024, the only thing we have is Basel IV for 2025. But we will evaluate if something can be brought forward to 2024, but it cannot. And then your last part of your question was about the new board that was going to be appointed by the shareholders' meeting in April.
And as I was saying before, as for the new business plan and the payout, well, the bank had already declared in the past that the business plan would be reviewed or revised, and this is what we communicated. The plan was for 2022-2025, so this would be the case. So it would be revised, but it would not be revised by the outgoing board. It would be revised by the next board, and so probably the board of directors will revise the plan or communicate a new plan, and the payout will be communicated. But as far as we are concerned, we're basing ourselves on the business plan that was envisaging a 50% payout by 2025, and we're progressing and advancing based on that plan.
But, you know, everything else would be considered by the new board.
Okay, but in terms of the Ecobonus, can you give a bit more clarity? What do you expect in 2024, the impact?
The impact of the Ecobonus on the year was EUR 180 million in 2023. Okay, thank you. Grazie. Next question from the Italian channel from Adele Palama with UBS. Good evening, everybody. I need some clarification about the revenues for the fourth quarter. There's other revenues and operating ... I'm sorry, other charges and revenues. Are there any one-offs that we should consider? And then guidance for 2024 in terms of tax rate. You mentioned Basel IV. Can you give us the impact of Basel IV that you expect for 2025? Then I would like to, I would like you to confirm that there are no other moving parts of capital, in terms of capital and other headwinds on top of Basel IV.
As far as Basel IV is concerned, there's no, nothing else I would report on top of what I said before. So about 50 basis points, that's what is shown. And then in terms of revenues for the fourth quarter, of course, yes, the charges and income are one-offs. But Mr. Santi is adding, if you were mentioning other income and expense, EUR 63 million. Yes, it's almost all of them are one-offs, but I would give you the two or three most important components, just for you to have an example. For instance, EUR 100 million is the capital gain from the disposal of, or the sale actually, of tax credits when we were replenishing the buffer.
Then there's the resolution fund that had requested us to contribute, and then they reduced the amount. Then there's another item, but it's a long list. It's a very, very long list. Basically, most of them, or many of them are one-offs. What about the guidance for the trading income for 2024? EUR 20 million per quarter, or is it going to be more? As far as the fees. Not, not about—I'm not speaking about fees, but trading income. Yes, EUR 25 million per quarter. Positive. Roughly speaking, yes. Next question is from Marco Nicolai, with Jefferies. Yes. I would like to ask Mr.
Montani, following some announcements in the press release by your major shareholder, do you have any hypotheses or information that you can talk about, about the renewal of the board? Well, you know, I do not like commenting about the communications of others. It's up to them. What I know is that we have a board. The board's mandate is going to expire soon. Once we have the slates or lists, then the configurations can be made. For as far as I am concerned, I can tell you, I am very happy with the success- with the successful transactions we completed, with the mandate that we were assigned that was successful. There's no agitation, so to say, on the part of anybody. We are waiting for the final part and the conclusions of it.
Mr. Sponghi, gentlemen, there are no further questions? Well, there's a question from Mr. Tomaselli of Société Générale. Thank you for your presentation. Good evening. I have two questions. Actually, it's one question, one clarification. The first question is about the amount of assets under custody that is quite substantial compared to assets under management. So I would like to understand whether you have identified and quantified how much of your assets under custody can be converted into assets under management, and how long it will take. And then my second question is, I have not understood what the growth will be for net commission income in 2024, in the two scenarios of the net interest income net—or actually, net interest income being flat or going down.
As far as assets under custody and assets under management are concerned, well, the bank has never lost anything in terms of assets under management or custody, which means that everything remains within the perimeter of AUM and AUC. But this must be done by looking at and being respectful of the positions of our customers. So it's not that we can you know decide a priori what type of conversion rate there should be. The bank historically has never lost any funds in either assets under management or assets under custody, direct funding. So we have grown substantially, as Gian Luca was saying before, you may have seen that there has been a good growth, and it depends also, of course, on the trend in the market.
There are some issuances that are yielding well, well, and so we will go on with the projections we've had so far. But as far as commissions are concerned, for 2024, we have not given guidance, but we are on the seventh of February, so we are at the very beginning of 2024. I may have said that as far as net interest income is concerned, for sure, considering that there's no compulsory reserve, there's no interest on TLTRO anymore, of course, there may be a decline. It may also be possible that the interest rate curves go down more than expected.
And so, I've said that we are projecting a growth in terms of commissions, but if there's a slight decrease in net interest income, we'll work on intercepting the exits or the outflows that we will have on that front by converting it into assets under management. So, we know that this is possible. If we had to lose something on one front, for sure, we will intercept and capture what we are observing in terms of exits by converting it elsewhere. But assets under management has always been one of our focus points, and Cesare Ponti's project is going to pursue the same objective, and it will be successful. Thank you very much. Mr. Santi is adding that you should also take away the deposits from Unipol.
Unipol has some shares of BPER that is deposited with us, and part of their, bond investments are deposited there. So there's part of those assets are Unipol, deposits, and by stripping that, then you can continue, I mean, you can, you can calculate your, commission evolution, the commission evolution. For any further questions, you may, press Star and One on your telephone. Mr. Sponghi, gentlemen, there are no further questions. I would like to thank you, and I would remind you that for any further clarification you may require, you have the contacts that you can get in touch with. So we are ... Do not hesitate to contact us for any further clarification. Thank you. Good, have a good evening. Bye.