Good afternoon. This is the conference call conference operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the conference call of the Bipod Bunker Group's Consolidated 9 Months Results. As a reminder, all participants are in listen only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.
On the telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Pierre Louisu Montani, CEO of the Bipro Banker Group. Please go ahead, sir. Thank you.
Thank you and good evening everybody. Thank you for joining. I'm here with my colleagues, in particular with Gianluca Santi, Deputy General Manager the CFO, the manager responsible for the financial information Fabio Pelati for Investor Relations. We're very happy with the results of this Q3. The 9 months results are extremely positive and they confirmed the growth trends observed year to date combined with increasing core business profitability, further improvements in credit quality and a solid capital and liquidity position.
As far as profitability is concerned, the net profit for the 9 months period amounts to 1,000,004 €66,000,000 and includes €1,000,000,000 €41,000,000 worth of nonrecurring items, primarily accounted for by the bad will recognized following the acquisition of Carige. Net of this amount, net profit totals BRL 425 €1,000,000 Net recurring profit for the 3rd quarter amounts to €108,600,000 after the payment of EUR 123,300,000 in Italian banking system contributions, reflective of robust profitability, which from this quarter also includes the contribution of Banca Karija. As far as Banca Karija is concerned, I'm pleased to say that the bank has a is at breakeven. And as far as this quarter is concerned, In terms of volumes, volumes are on a strong year to date uptrend on the back of both Bancakar regions on boarding since the Q2 and the positive commercial inputs that we have already had an opportunity to observed in the previous quarters. Net of Corrige's contribution, direct funding was up 1% and net loans to customers were up 1.7%.
Gaining lending support to households and businesses continued with New loans in the 1st 9 months of 2022 totaling EUR 12,600,000,000 In the previous quarter, I remember we hinted at this figure, which was close to this level. As far as credit Quality is concerned, we have recorded further improvements with gross NPE ratio down to 4.2% last time We communicated 4.3% in the previous quarter and the net NPE ratio is now at It's 1.7%. It was 1.8% in the previous quarter. All of this is combined with further improvements in the coverage ratios. So the non performing loans are at 61.7% versus 61.3% and bad loans were at 75.6% and now they are up.
And GTPs were at 46% and they have improved and BONIS, so the pro form a loans are at 0.68%. The Bank's capital strength is confirmed with the pro form a fully phased CET1 ratio that including the full benefit deriving from Carige's DTA settles at 13.2%. So this is the overall overview of of the quarter. And I will give the floor to Gianluca Santi and the CFO, so that will illustrate the details. I would say that the CEO has already commented the overall situation.
We will go into the specific details for just for some qualitative comments. As you can see in Slide 6, the path has already been developed For the acquisition of Banca Carrigo in the Q3 of 2022, we completed the mandatory tender offer And there was a subsequent sellout process with Bipur reaching 96.1% stake in Banca Carige. And in the 4th quarter, Just last weekend, there was the approval of the acquisition of Banca Carige and Banca Monte deluca into Bipur. And IT migration is scheduled for the 28th November 2022. Just I'm recollecting all of the numbers.
And Carige really brought about 800,000 customers to The bank EUR 10,200,000,000 in AUM and Life Bank Insurance and EUR 10,300,000,000 in net loans and EUR 14,300,000,000 in direct deposits. Moving on to an analysis of The direct and indirect deposits of the group growth was 50 by 15.1% year to date. And if we look at the Entire period, the growth was outstanding. And also in the last quarter, it was important because it happens through the retail customers. So there's a good positioning and a good growth, which is a very good indicator for banks in this very moment.
In indirect deposits, A further comment I would like to make is that the market effect since the beginning of the year had an impact of 14%. So the impact of this will reverberate and translate into EUR 20,000,000,000 does reverberate and translate into EUR 20,000,000,000 as at September 2022. But it's important to say that Assets under management has been confirmed as a positive contributor for the 3 quarters. And in this quarter, having good Assets under management is a good so we've got 5 to 1, I think, as a ratio between direct and indirect. But with the Carige and the former Ubi customers, we've been able to contribute to this sector significantly.
Looking at loans, net customer loans, The growth year to date is 14.8%, 1 point 7% change on a like for like basis So out of the EUR 90,000,000,000 net customer loans, we've got EUR 8,300,000,000 that are stays guaranteed. What is important is that new loans have reached EUR 12,600,000,000 and once again this bears witness to The fact that the customer base we have achieved makes it possible for us to develop a strong commercial effort. And the expectations for 2023 are that the situation may be reversed so that the short term will go up because inflation And the price increase will, especially for businesses, lead to an increasing need for liquidity and so the trend may be reversed in the future. As far as asset quality is concerned, Strong asset quality is confirmed in Q3 2022 with declining NPE ratios and coverage further strengthened. So we're now at 4.2% in the NPE ratio.
NPE coverage has been further strengthened Bad loans at 77.9 percent and UTP is at 47.3%. There's the consolidation of Carige that has brought in about EUR 150,000,000 in net loans, which means that if we had to analyze 1, we only had to announce Analyze Bipur, we would be at 64% in terms of NPE coverage. 0.68% of performing loans coverage is very important with 4.3% for Stage 2 loans. We are among the best in class. And I would say that with the disposals By the end of the year, we should be able to be positioning among the best in the Italian banking system.
As far as the financial assets portfolio is concerned, we can say, as you can see in the slide, that our portfolio is made up of 36% is Italian government bonds out of the total. We had braced 4 and we were ready in the past to actually also acquire Carige's government bonds. And so from 8.6 percent, we are now at 10.6 percent. But with Biber, they had gone down to 8.3 precisely to prepare for this input from Carige. And as you can see, the duration is 2.1 years in Italian government in total bonds and 2.2 years, so a little bit higher for Italian government bonds.
We have tried to give you an overview of the quarters of both Bipur and Karijje by obviously also calculating pro form a and taking away all of the one off or nonrecurring items. And I would say that by comparing Solo, Bipur on a stand alone basis and you may remember that last time we had not yet consolidated the profit and loss, but now the variation is only in terms of personnel costs because of a twofold effect, seasonality effect and holidays basically on the one hand, But also, we're starting to perceive also the reduction in the headcount. So 533 people have gone away. Now in the 9 month period, we are at 600 exits. And so we will start to benefit from these reductions in the headcount over the next quarters too.
Then as compared to the Q2, there's a difference then also in contributions to the Italian Banking System Funds, EUR 123,000,000 just for Bipr, EUR 102,000,000 that I would say is one of the most important differences compared with the Q2 that you can see in Slide 13. Then as far as cost of credit is concerned, we will see the details thereof, but annualized cost of credit is 48 basis points. As far as net interest income is concerned, once again the dynamics here for the quarter Between the Q3 and the Q2, there is a difference. So in the first part, we only have Bipr, 33.8% growth in commercial, and it's one to be split between market effects and volumes effects. So the Institutional funding, we have issued subordinated loans and so debt and so the cost of Funding is a little bit higher and €22,000,000 reduction in the TLTRO.
So From 39 in the second quarter, we are now at 19. So there's a benefit from the TLTRO still. And you can see Carige as a whole because some information, Some detailed information are being structured over these weeks. And so from next The quarter, we will give you more details. But the commercial spread, as you can see, goes from CHF193 to CHF205 quarter on quarter.
As far as net commission income, Slide 15 is concerned. Of course, there's been a drop in what comes from assets under management and in direct deposits, but there has been a growth in The traditional banking activities, and we have seen that particularly in transactional banking, POS and cards. And also, there has been an increase. And there's been an increase also in Corporate Investment Banking. And the loan dynamics also drags along some an important Fees and commissions are components.
So we're very much satisfied with the traditional banking activity in terms of net fees and commissions. As far as finance is concerned and trading income, the only difference between the two quarters lies with Carige because there were some capital gains there on the disposals of some securities and Carisse also benefited from some short positions on interest rates. As far as operating costs are concerned, I would say that for operating costs, you can see there that over the 9 months, we're calculating about BRL 47,000,000 in one off costs that are broken down equally between cost adjustments to the solidarity fund of 2021. And EUR 24,000,000 instead are one off costs deriving from the acquisition of Carige. So we're benefiting also in terms of personnel costs from a reduction of about 5.90 people with 5.30 people from the 1st July.
As far as the cost of credit is concerned, we can confirm at Bipur's level that there are the same loan loss provisions as we had In the Q2, the annualized cost of credit is 48 basis points, but we should consider that we also increased the coverage ratio for nonperforming loans. So this effect is very important and probably represents also and accounts for 50% of the loan loss provisions that in terms of basis points we are in fact taking. As far as capital is The slide is self evident. You can see that the deductions are OCI fair value reserves. And then there are deductions on DTAs because after asserting capital thresholds, they are taken back, and we will reabsorb them by the beginning of by the early months of 2023.
Then so you can see the risk weighted assets and then by pro form a if we pro form a calculate the DTAs of Carrizo, we will get to 13.2% in terms of pro form a Phase III and CECI that is broadly in line with our expectations. So once again, I would reassert the final conclusions. Our operating profitability is underpinned by the top line growth in traditional banking revenues with, again, a net fee and commission income that exceeds net interest income in this course. And then the resilient asset quality should be highlighted with the higher coverage and the solid capital that gives us a good position of solidity and financial strength. My presentation is over, and I would Open the questions and answer session.
Yes. So this is the course call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question It's from the Italian conference by Perroch, Mr. Perroch from Mediobanca.
Please go ahead, sir. Please go ahead, ladies and madam. So I've got three questions. First, could you share with us the dividend per share that you have included in your common equity for the 9 months of the year for this 9 month period? And how much should we back for the next quarter.
And you had indicated BRL 450 €1,000,000 in net interest income. And now can you update your guidance for the quarter? And my last question is about fees and commissions. Your strategy in terms of asset management and Assurance was profitable so far and Q3 exceeded the limits of your guidance. But looking at the Next year, do you expect commissions will continue to increase?
Well, very quickly, as far as The dividends concerned for the 9 month period, EUR 0.7 €0.05 was set aside. And as far as the expectation for the end of the year is concerned, We are in we will try to keep with what we had promised. And so we will see how things developed towards the end of the year. But as far as net interest income is concerned and the guidance for the next quarter, For sure, we did very well. And probably, I'm saying something in advance, but I think that in terms of we will go around EUR 1,000,000,000 divided between net interest income and net commission income, fifty-fifty on a fifty-fifty basis.
But you know that 2023, so next year is going to be a very special year. No one has understood yet what we can expect, but We have carried out our analysis. And so we what I'm giving as a guidance is what we're thinking now, and then we would be more curating our guidance over the next weeks months. Thank you. And Can you give us guidance also about the net interest income for 2024, probably?
Well, So the analysis is being carried out. We can confirm the data, But we may expect a little bit better results. Next question is from Domenico Santoro from HSBC. Please go ahead. Yes, I've got four questions.
First of all, the contribution of the TLTRO, probably there was some inaccuracy. I understood it was 39 growth in the 2nd quarter and now it's 2019. I think I had higher numbers, and so I would like to understand better what the contribution is going to be for the Q4, both in growth and net terms. And then Net interest income, I can understand that the Q4 is going to be better than Q3, and we can inferred that it's going to be much higher. But can you give us guidance for next year, 2023?
And because we are so EUR 1.9 €50,000,000,000 probably will be achieved next year. So I would like to have better guidance. And then systemic costs also, we need guidance about that. And Would like to know more about any possible decisions about nonperforming loans being sold or if the model is going to be revised? And if so, to what stand.
Well, let me see if I remember all of your questions, but the systemic costs for next year are about EUR 150,000,000. The guidance I gave before was an overall guidance of €1,000,000,000 on a 50 basis. And The contribution of the Q4, as I was saying before, is in line with this quarter. We expect something better, but we will be clearer in the short term. But as far as the disposals are concerned, by At the end of this year, we had talked about disposals for about EUR 1,500,000,000 in NPLs.
And in the business plan, we had also included disposals of UTPs with the objective being the disposal of bad loans by the end of this year. And what we expect is that we will go towards expect significant any significant impacts. And as far as the TLTRO is Concerned, I would leave the floor to Gianluca Santi, the Deputy General Manager. In the annexes, you have a slide on net interest income that shows how net Just income evolved over the quarter EUR 30,000,000 in the 1st EUR 27,000,000 in the 2nd EUR 6,000,000 in the 3rd quarter. Of course, by including Genova, it will be 30 for the quarter, but you have the development, all of the breakdown in a slide.
If I can ask for clarification that is important for next year, the can you give us guidance about the revenues because you said EUR 1,000,000,000 I think. Yes. I must be cautious and conservative because we're speaking about a very special year. So EUR 1,000,000,000 in terms of operating profit with a subdivision into net interest income and fee and commission income of 50% each roughly with differences of there might be that there may be differences, but this is what we are thinking of at the moment. But I want to be conservative and prudent because we're I mean, the fear It is in progress and next year is fraught with uncertainty.
So we need to be cautious. Next question comes from Marco Nicolei from Jefferies. Yes, good evening and thank you for the presentation and I congratulate you on your results. I've got a couple of questions. If you can give us an update on the litigation with Malacalce Investimenting, any possible reverberations in case there are any?
And in terms of one off costs connected with the acquisition, should we expect any further costs? I would I think so for the Q4. And can you give us color on that? And can you give us some update on synergies if you have an update on the synergies that you expect from Carige. Well, we do not expect Any further impacts on costs as compared to what we gave you as a guidance?
The integration costs are about EUR 70,000,000 as a whole that we have already taken actually EUR 30,000,000 has already been taken. And we hope that by the end of the year considering that the situation has been a little bit better then we expected or are in line with what we expected. We hope we'll be able to improve the situation even further and not worsen it. But If there are any if your question was whether we see any negative surprises, the answer is we do not see any Surprises. Well, litigation with Malacalsa, we have already spoken about this.
We are quite confident about the results of litigation. I have no further update to give you as compared to what the market already knows. And so I wouldn't add anything. So in terms of costs Associated to the M and A, it's only €30,000,000 or €35,000,000 No, this is what we have already taken, what we have already incurred. But the overall cost is €70,000,000 and we hope we can do better.
At the same time, I feel quite confident that it will be better because the operation this transaction that was for sure very complex as far as we're concerned and also for the entire organization because Karige was Had some problems that were dragging along the last summer. We had to work intensively, but everything eventually worked out well. And so we're quite confident about the next future and the future in general. Because in the meantime, we have seen that the operating income was positive and also the bottom line is at breakeven, which makes us confident about the future. The synergies we gave you can be confirmed and then we will be more detailed in the next quarter.
Next question is from Andrea Lizzie from Equisa. Mr. Lizzie, you can go ahead. I'm sorry, I was in mute on mute. So thank you for taking my My first question is about the balance sheet.
I have seen that there has been an increase, a strong increase in cash and cash equivalents. And I would like to understand how this interacts with the TLTRO, if there is any correlation. And then in terms of guidance for the net interest income for the next year, Indicatively, you spoke about EUR 500,000,000 per quarter. So I would like to understand what rates Assumption, is it based on is your estimate based on and so for the Considering today's interest rates, what sensitivity do you have for in terms of Euribor increases. What we're based on today's situation, we cannot base ourselves on any further situation.
So this is what we're based on. And I can confirm the trend that you gave. And if The CFO is taking the question about sensitivity. Yes, the sensitivity for a further increase By 100 basis points in the interest rates is 5% of net interest income. Next question is from Rianne Carrezza from Intermonte.
Yes, good evening. Thank you for taking my questions. I would like to understand for the Q4, what the one off items are, if there are any. So You were recalling the cost of personnel, for instance. And so I would like to understand
the
Nexi situation, then the some one offs that you may give us color on for the Q4? And then the strategy, as far as strategy is concerned, in the newspapers, we had reports of We've read about this 3rd banking poll. And if you are you interested in increasing your first point, for instance, with the Banca Monterrey Paschi has been capitalized now. And so could it fit within your plans? Well, as far as the one off items are concerned, Apart from what we have already communicated, we cannot see any and we hope there's none.
So I have no further elements to add to what I have already talked about and we may expect some positive elements for the next quarter. Then Gianluca talked about the exit of about 600 people. I think it was 580 people. So 600 people left in the first half of the year and there's going to be 400 people leaving in the 2nd part of the year. So for next Here, we will start to have a benefit from the headcount reduction, but we will have the upside next year.
And then as far as the HR is concerned, we are defining a second maneuver that we in fact set out in the business plan for about 200 people. So there's another there's a HR maneuver that is being that is going on. And when we talked about the sale of branches to Dazio, the sale of these branches Today's deal will also involve 270 people leaving, which means that there is a quite substantial Headcount maneuver going on that we hope will be completed soon. You know that many actions have been That being implemented, there are 2 or 3 that are will be completed by the end of the year, including Nexi that you were hinting at and we I'm confident that this will be completed, but with Nexi, we hope it will be completed. So the numbers have already been communicated.
In the Q4, the deal should be closed, but we will give you communication of everything Once we can when we can confirm what we have seen said, as far as the 3rd banking poll strategy is concerned, I'm repeating myself over these days. And I do not know what to add and it's not something personal against you or with you. But over the last 15 months, the bank has doubled its position or actually, It has troubled its complexity because by putting together the UBITDA deal with 620 branches and 5,006 100 people, Carige that is bringing onboard 3,300 people. So We are integrating, we have partly integrated and we are still integrating 8,400 people. And We're still yesterday's bank, so we cannot look too far ahead at what is happening, but we really have to have a good focus on what we have.
And our priority today is that of completing everything we have started and consolidating the bank that we have formed. Now the bank has got 5,000,000 customers. We need to arrange everything in the best way also in terms of that branch network because we're adding The branch network of Karige now that is bringing along a number of customers that, as you know, have experienced, I wouldn't say an abandonment because I would be offensive against Carige. And of course, they did what we called. They have The customers' relationships have been retained, but of course, there were problems with the loss in volumes.
And we need to fix that. We need to integrate the people that are part of the Head office, 800 people are going to be integrated in the head office. We have already talked with everybody. We basically have the plans for We deployed the people and we are confident that a good Work will be made in the next quarter and most of the things will be settled. And But still, the work is intense and we wouldn't consider another transaction now.
Once we're done with what we're doing, we will What about the IT migration? I couldn't understand question very well, Mr. Montaneses. I was saying, what about the partnerships? Well, among The things that we need to arrange in the best way with Carige, We also have the partnerships that they had, and so we hope we are confident that they will be completed by the end of the year.
And as far as the IT migration is concerned, progress I mean, The migration is well ahead. And you may know that since last year with the acquisition of Obi, We also have acquired a lot of people from UBIS, including the manager of IT, Mr. Sonino. And we have acquired basically 140 people to strengthen the IT In the meantime and including also the partnerships, on top of that, there are also the partnerships with the IT sector that is being repositioned, has been in sourced. And this is bring about the inclusion of 103, 104 People that we need to strengthen the IT department.
We have not identified any presence so far. We are Perfectly convinced that the entire integration of the IT will be completed by The end of this month successfully and the tests we have carried out so far proved and yielded very well. And this bears witness to the fact that also in terms of IT, we have made very good steps forward. Obviously, we have not yet completed the process, so we will work intensely to complete The integration by the 27th 28th November over the conversion weekend, and I'm sure you will be able to verify the positive results of this integration with Corrige. Thank you very much.
Next question is from Adele Palama from UBS. Yes, good evening. I've got 2 requests for clarification on the guidance and some questions. As far as The costs are concerned. I think I remember that there were some costs, some one off costs deriving from the personnel maneuver of about EUR 140,000,000 EUR 150,000,000.
Has this already been taken or will it be taken in the Q4? Well, you remember, perfectly, because the HR maneuver was for 600 people with an estimated cost of EUR 150,000,000. But this cost will have to be taken, and I'm confident that by the end of the year, We will complete the HR maneuver. There are many things to do, but this was included among our objectives. And so by the end of the year, we were completed.
And if it's not by the end of the year, it would be by early next year, but we're working on it. Yes. Yes, good. And I would also like to know If you are thinking of repaying the tranche of the TLTRO in advance, Let us consider that in due time. What I can say is that we are in a condition to repay that because there's that would be possible.
But we have not yet Thoughts about it? I mean, there's no difficulty in repaying it. We will consider the opportunity and convenience of doing that in due time. And I would like to have guidance on what you expect for the cost of risk in 2023 and some clarification about the NII 5% Or is it annualized 1st Q3? And then the moving parts of capital that you expect if you expect any moving parts for the 2023 2024.
Just a minute because you made a lot of questions. We had The mic was off, I'm sorry. As far as this year is concerned, we have communicated that the cost of risk was 48 is 48 basis points. And we expect it will be maintained between 4850 And we may get to 60% or 70% in case of an adverse scenario, but we will see what happens. Then I would like I always stress one point that unlike other banks, we were always conservative.
We've always been conservative we've always been judged as having a higher cost of risk than others. I would underline this once again, our cost of credit that the cost of credit that we always gave, if we had looked at the models, we would have been able to declare a lower cost of risk, but we wanted to be conservative and prudent because our objective was that of reducing the growth and net NPE ratio and we would have obtained that through a substantial sale of the portfolio. So we always took robust provisions in order not to make sales by the end of the year with a strong impact on the profit and loss. So we are in a position now to say that we should be able to closed a big deal in NPE by the end of the year for EUR 1,000,000,000 And the marginal impact is being considered. But the same type of approach will be continue will continue in the past.
So we were prudent in the past, I'm sorry, and we'll keep being prudent in the future. Then for a number of reasons now, we are We expect 20% for next year. We would also it could also be 25 5% probably, that There was a part missing, 5% is the tax rate based on 2022, about EUR 100,000,000 in terms of numbers. And What about the moving parts of capital in the Q4 and in 2023? And The question another question is about overlays.
There are no impacts. And for overlays, you were asking, so it's about EUR 90,000,000. I hope I gave you all of the answers. Next question from Andrea Vercellone. Just I'm asking for clarification about core revenues for next year.
You said EUR 1,000,000,000 Quarterly, my question is based on what perimeter today's perimeter? Or is this perimeter net of the merchant acquiring leasing and I'm sorry, the well, on this perimeter, of course. But I may have understood wrongly. So of course, the perimeter excluding the acquiring, merchant acquiring, yes. So Should those perimeter net of fees from the acquiring business?
Yes, because the merchant Business is going to be closed by the end of the year. And so it will have to be excluded from the perimeter. We cannot include it in the perimeter, otherwise there would be something wrong in the calculation, of course. And what about the other deconsolidations that you are planning? You have not yet excluded them from the guidance or have you?
This is my question. Well, I was thinking loud while you were making the question, but the deconsolidation we're speaking About the only one left would be the leasing well and the branches to DECIO. They have already been considered. So yes, those things have already been considered because as far as the branches being sold to Dazio, If the deal is closed next year, then of course, they will be considered as out of the scope. So what has been announced, yes, for sure, everything that has been announced is out because if it was not the case, then we would have cheated.
And so of course, Everything that has been announced is not in the guidance because we know that they will not generate maybe more benefits or revenues. But it's important for us to know what you have excluded. Yes, you're right. You're right. You made a good question, but it's I'm not speaking for myself, but the history of this bank has always been very prudent.
And so it's part of its style not to declare something it has not considers. And so the second clarification is about NPEs. I remember EUR 2,500,000,000, yes, you're right. We always spoke about EUR 2,500,000,000 because we were considering Back loans and UTPs and the sale of the platform, I probably was too quick when I said this, but We are dividing the platform and the UTPs that will go next year. And then for this year, we're just talking about bad loans.
And so Bad loans will be sold by an amount of up to EUR 1,500,000,000. Probably, we'll not be able for us to get to EUR 1,500,000,000 by the end of the year, but we will do we will sell EUR 1,100,000,000, EUR 1.2 €1,000,000,000 by the end of this year. So it's split into 2 moments because we would have not been able to do everything by the end of this year. If you look at the extent of the deals we are proposing, they are very substantial and there's a problem of timing. Next question is from the conference in English from Hugo Cruz, KBW.
Hi. Thank you for the time. Just Last quarter, you gave some guidance for the run rate on operating costs. From memory, I think it was you gave guide for 6.40 to 6.50 50 a quarter. So I was wondering if you can update that guidance as well.
Thank you.
Yes. We can give you the guidance by quarter, so it's EUR 650,000,000 I'm sorry, EUR EUR 650,000,000 each quarter.
So you said
that EUR 600,000,000 EUR 2,600,000,000 overall EUR 650,000,000 each quarter.
Thank you very much.
Next question from the Italian conference is from Mediobanca, Noemi Perrok. Good evening, again, and thank you for taking and my questions. I've got 2 follow-up questions and one question. So the first follow-up question is about the NII guidance. We would like to know how many MREL issuance you have foreseen and what Do you consider as an adverse scenario for the cost risk cost of risk of 60% to 70% in terms also of employment, environment and everything.
And then the leasing and FIFA disposals. For the moral part, Roberto, the CFO will answer. Then in terms of adverse scenarios, we have not focused on something extraordinary in one sense or the other. What I wanted to say is that if The scenario remains flat and stable based on what we're seeing today, then evidently we can be confident that the cost of credit will be much more limited or in line with what we have. If there's a recordations of something that we cannot Expect now, but because there are no specific forecasts, but you can include in that regulations or emergency, whatever you want, like the cost of energy, inflation or employment problems.
Then if we were to consider a worsening scenario, more negative scenario than what we've seen today, then We would consider a cost of risk of 60 to 70 bps basis points, but we have no visibility now. I think that nobody has a clear idea of what will happen next year. But just personally speaking, I would say that, yes, personally speaking, and I do not know if I'm right or wrong, I'm probably more frightened and concerned about 2024 than 2023, but I'm confining myself to Saying this, we will have to see what happens. Hi, Noemi, the CFO speaking. As far as the MVA is considered is concerned, we've got an issuance of EUR 400,000,000 And we have considered EUR 500,000,000 to EUR 600,000,000 in senior debt to be issued next year.
And I think that this will be will complete our MREL issuances for 2023. Mr. Montani, there are no further questions registered at the moment. Good. So thank you for joining the conference call and for any further questions or For clarification, as you may require, my colleagues are here.
We are here for further clarifications or answers to questions that you may not have been able to make or that you will want to make in the future. So thank you for your attention. Have a good evening.