Davide Campari-Milano N.V. (BIT:CPR)
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Apr 27, 2026, 5:35 PM CET
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Earnings Call: Q4 2021

Feb 23, 2022

Operator

Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Campari Group Results Presentation Full Year ended 31 December 2021. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Bob Kunze-Concewitz CEO of the Campari Group. Please go ahead, sir.

Bob Kunze-Concewitz
CEO, Campari Group

Thank you very much and good afternoon and welcome to our call to all of you. If you follow me to page number three, I'll kick off with the overall business performance. As you can see, 2021 was strong overall performance with clear double-digit growth rates across all key financial indicators. Net sales crossed the two billion mark. They came in at EUR 2,172.7 million, representing a 25.6% organic growth rate. Adjusted EBIT came in at EUR 435.2 million, which represents a growth of 42.3%. Now, the double-digit organic sales growth was driven by continued strong and very healthy brand momentum, with overall increased consumption as well as penetration and consumer recruitment versus the pre-pandemic era.

Our strong EBIT organic growth as well as the margin expansion in fiscal year 2021 was driven by gross margin recovery, closing half of the margin gap experienced in 2020 as expected, as well as thanks to operating leverage. In Q4 2021, we had very strong top line performance in this and I say despite logistics constraints, whereas EBIT on the other hand reflected the enhanced agency investment which we chose to make in peak season as well as the beginning of intensified cost inflation. The year was characterized by very strong cash generation, up 55.7% recurring free cash flow year on year, leading to significant deleverage. Effectively, our net debt to EBITDA adjusted ratio is down from 2.8 at the end of 2020 to a current level of 1.6.

On the back of these, very strong results, we are proposing a full year dividend of EUR 0.06 per share, up 9.1% versus last year. Moving on to chart 5, where you can see really very strong momentum across all the regions and brand clusters and importantly, I'd like to underline this continued in Q4 despite the COVID fourth wave disruption at year-end, which impacted the on-premise particularly. At the same time we faced quite a bit of logistics headwinds. Moving on to page 6, you can see that what is really important is that cocktail culture has penetrated home and home mixology is here to stay.

If you look at it on a two-year stack perspective, clearly we're way ahead of where we were pre-pandemic and depending on the market, we're either slightly ahead or slightly below where we were in 2020. This bodes quite well for us in the future. Moving on to page 7, the Americas, our largest region, up a very strong 23%. Our largest market, the U.S., was up 18.9% versus 2020 and 22.8% versus 2019, so versus the pre-pandemic benchmark. With solid growth across all of our core brands with quite a positive performance in Q4. In Q4, we were up 6.8% in the U.S. This on the back of a very strong comp base of +20.2% the previous year. In the U.S., we benefited from on-premise reopening as well as the sustained consumption in the off-premise, sorry.

Clearly, key drivers here are the Espolòn brand, Grand Marnier and Aperol, which all registered double-digit growth rates, quite strong. While Wild Turkey came in with its high-end expressions outperforming. Campari grew by single digits and SKYY was flat within the full year. The overall sales performance was up 22.8%, as I said earlier, versus 19 and this is again strong, really strong momentum across the whole portfolio brand. Moving on to Canada, up low double-digit as well, 10.9%. Strong overall growth, clearly again, here the heavy hitters for that market, Forty Creek, Appleton Estate, Grand Marnier, SKYY Vodka and Espolòn. Jamaica was up quite a strong 28%. A very nice continued recovery in the on-premise, driven by both the domestic trade as well as the recovering international tourism.

The strong performances here were driven by Wray & Nephew Overproof, Campari, Appleton Estate and Magnum Tonic. The rest of the regions were up 44.1% with double-digit growth across all of them, including Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, where we're seeing improved brand momentum which, to be fair, also is magnified by an easy comp base. Moving on to CEMEA, our second largest region, up here to a very strong 46.7%. The largest market, Italy, was up 46.4% versus 2020 and 12.8% versus 2019. Clearly we're continuing to see revenge from vitality in the on-premise and an overall increased frequency of consumption across channels. Our core aperitifs were strong. Aperol was up 46.7% versus 2020 and 24.4% versus 2019. Campari similarly up 39.2% versus 2020 and 23.9% versus 2019.

Our single serve aperitifs are also doing very, very well and that's quite important for that geography. The relaunch of Campari Soda continues to be very positive. The brand is up strong double digits, 45.5% versus 2020 and 22.3% versus 2019. Crodino as well grew low double digits versus 2020 and partially recovered versus 2019. Q4 was particularly strong. We were up 60% on the back also of a favorable comp base as the city was shut most of the time in Q4 2020. Moving on to France. France was up 22.1%. Again, very positive underlying trends with growth driven by the heavy hitters in that market, Aperol, Riccadonna, De Kuyper, rums, Campari and Grand Marnier.

The rest of the region was up a very strong 64.4% with positive performance across all markets, thanks to the on-premise recovery combined with an easy comp base, particularly Greece, Spain, where we've seen a beginning of a return of the tourism trade and very good performances in South Africa and Nigeria. Global travel retail was up 73.2% with an acceleration in Q4 as mobility started to increase and people started to travel across major markets. However, this channel continues to remain down versus 2019. Moving on to our third largest region, North, Central and Eastern Europe, continued very strong performance, up 18.6%. We continue to outperform the industry across all of our markets. Germany, the largest component, up 10.7% and this despite having a very tough comp base.

You'll recall that Germany, which is mostly an off-premise market, was up by 8.6% in 2020. Key driver here continues to be the Aperol brand, up 16%. This obviously doesn't, that number doesn't incorporate the Aperol Spritz Ready to Serve, which has been launched separately to great success in that market. Campari grew as well. Crodino, our non-alcoholic ready to drink, is up double digits and it's starting to become a meaningful business. Strong momentum in Q4, up double digits, 12.4% and this notwithstanding the restrictive measures which were implemented in the key month of December. Our off-premise sell-out data in Germany remains very solid with our subsidiary outperforming the market at twice the rate. The U.K. continues very, very strong, up 39.1%. Key drivers, Aperol, Lillet, Overproof, Campari, Magnum Tonic.

We have also clearly a very good momentum in the on-premise channel. Russia also gave us good satisfaction, up 25%, very positive performance with double-digit growth in the key Q4 versus both 2020 and 2019. Strong double-digit growth of Aperol, Mondoro and Campari. The rest of the region also grew double digits, 19.4%, with the aperitifs, so particularly Aperol being a key driver. Last but not least, an area where we've been investing consistently in capabilities, route to market and A&P for the past few years, APAC up 22.9%. Australia, unfortunately, was flattish versus 2020. This is both, on the one hand, a reflection of a very tough comp base. We were up 20.2% previous year.

But at the same time, Q4 was a slowdown, both due to the comp base but also due to very poor weather and that's a high seasonality moment for Australia. With the poor weather, there aren't many barbecues or people partying on beaches. At the same time, unfortunately, this market was impacted by transoceanic shipments delays and constraints. If we look at the rest of the region, though and this is where clearly, we're investing significantly, we're up 109.4%, triple-digit growth in all key markets, thanks to our enhanced investments across all our levers. China was up 126.4%, driven by X-Rated, SKYY Vodka and Aperol. South Korea, driven by X-Rated and high-end Wild Turkey offerings and Japan grew low single digits over the year. This market was impacted clearly by strong restrictions on the key on-premise market.

Moving on to chart number 12, I think we're very proud and very happy to communicate that after eight years as the runner-up, the Negroni is finally the number one cocktail in premium bars. We're also very pleased to see that Aperol Spritz actually moved up to rank number six from 11 last year. This adds up to two proprietary cocktails in the top 10. However, if we add the key Negroni variants such as Boulevardier and the Americano, which rank in at 12 and 16, you will see that Campari actually has 1 out of 4 of the top 16 cocktails as proprietary cocktails. I think that is quite an achievement and augurs very well for future years.

Clearly, all of our key brands are very well skewed against all the other top cocktails, be it the Old Fashioned, Martini, Margarita and so on and so forth. At the same time, our brands continue to get many important accolades, such as those from the Drinks International Annual Brands Report 2022, where you see across the portfolio doing very, very well. Moving on to Aperol. Aperol, our largest brand, 3% of group sales, growing at 32.8%. Clearly, with the reopening of the on-premise channel in most markets, we have renewed consumer recruitment and, coupled with the sustained home consumption that is clearly driving, increased penetration. Core established markets such as Italy, the U.S., France, U.K., Russia, Switzerland, Belgium and Austria continue to grow by strong double-digit numbers.

Spain grew triple-digit and newer markets such as China and Mexico as well. We've had a return to nice double-digit growth rates in South America. Clearly, Q4 was also very strong, up 45.8% boosted by de-seasonalization activities and particularly the presence of the brand in skiing resorts. Versus 2019, we're up 32.2%, so it's really an incredible momentum continuing on this brand. If you see on page 15, clearly, we're back in major activation mode de-seasonalization. At the same time, we continue to see that some VIP aficionados of the brand continue to render homage to it. We'd like to thank Mr. Beckham for actually voluntarily posting, I might underline, three or four great posts last week enjoying Aperol Spritzes in a French premium skiing resort.

Moving on to Campari on page 16, second-largest brand at 10%, growing also a very healthy 13.1%. Solid growth across all our major markets. Here, clearly, we're benefiting from positive home mixology trends as well as positive on-premise momentum. I mean, out of the top 16 cocktails in the world, three of them are Campari-based. This is clearly testimony to the strong brand building which we've been putting behind the brand in the past ten years or so. The brand, the liquid is very versatile and in addition to the proprietary cocktails, clearly one hero cocktail which is emerging spontaneously from consumers in the bar trade across markets is the Campari Spritz, which is becoming very meaningful.

We're also very proud to see that the Camparino, our brand house here in Milan, two years after we bought it and relaunched it, has entered into the world's 50 best bars with ranking number 27. This too is something to be proud of and something we'll leverage on the brand building also on a more international scale going forward. Our Kentucky bourbon, Wild Turkey, doing very nicely, up 10.9%. Positive growth driven by the core U.S. market as well as high-end offerings across market. Unfortunately, though, this growth was partly mitigated by a decline in core Australian and Japan, where we were severely impacted by logistics disruptions in Q4. In the U.S., the brand is continuing to premiumize, the franchise grew by 9.8%, despite a deceleration in Q4, due to a tough comp base.

In the previous year, we were up 36.3%. Importantly, though, Wild Turkey Longbranch and the high-end Russell's Reserve continued to grow at a very strong double-digit growth rate. American Honey also grew double digit, up 10.6%. Compared versus to the pre-pandemic era, overall, the franchise was up 16.1%. Moving on to Grand Marnier, which gives us a lot of satisfaction, up 43.2%. The U.S. is driving quite a bit of this, up 44.6% versus 2020, 24.5% versus 2019. Again, here it's the same trends with homemade cocktail consumptions going up and the success of the Grand Margarita across both channels clearly fueling growth. Doing very nicely in France and Canada and from a lower base also in the other markets such as Italy and Germany.

SKYY, overall up 8.2% with a very positive performance driven in the international markets, in particular South Africa, which was up triple digits, Argentina, China, Canada and Mexico. These clearly help compensate the softness in the U.S., where shipments were slightly negative by 0.7%. Now, this franchise is in the midst of its relaunch behind a new range, packaging and liquid. If we start digging into the internals of the brand funnel, we can see that we're starting to recruit again younger consumers into the franchise. I think this will be positive and will reflect itself in the years to come. Our Jamaican rum, 6% of the total, up 22.7%. Again, here it is across core markets as well as seeding markets.

What's very positive is that we're really premiumizing the range with both limited editions as well as, you know, those which are part of the normal range. Again, this is having a very positive impact both on, let's say, net sales, marginality, as well as a halo effect for the brand. Espolòn, up 37.5%. Clearly, since we relaunched it in 2008, this has been an incredible success story. We're one of the top 100% agave-based brands in the U.S. You'll recall that, you know, the beginnings of this was a $36 million acquisition of a distillery, where we only had 2,000 cases and today, we're at the 1 million cases benchmark in the U.S. and continuing to grow very strongly.

We're expanding the brand and we'll probably be able to accelerate the expansion in the second half of this year when more capacity comes on stream at the distillery. Moving on to the rest of the portfolio, you'll see that all the premium brands are growing double-digit versus the two-year stack. Also versus 2020, the only one which is in is Forty Creek. Again, Forty Creek is outperforming the Canadian whiskey market in its home market. Our local brands also doing very nicely, importantly Campari Soda, Crodino, growing versus previous year. We'll start talking more and more about the Aperol Spritz, which we've introduced in, I think 9 or 10 markets, less markets than those actually requiring it and it's very, very successful and clearly these are all additional volumes to the mother brand.

Wild Turkey RTD was impacted and only grew 1.6% versus last year and here was impacted both by tough comp base as well as one-off such as weather and logistics issues. Magnum is giving us a lot of satisfaction, growing very strongly in the core U.K. as well as Jamaica. Last but not least, X-Rated is doing very well across Asia but particularly in South Korea and China. This is it so far on the top line and I'll pass on happily to Paolo.

Paolo Marchesini
CFO and COO, Campari Group

Thank you, Bob. If you follow me to page 28, we can see in the chart that EBIT adjusted in 2021 came in at EUR 435 million. You know, if we focus on the organic performance organically, EBIT adjusted was up 42.3% in value, delivering 240 basis point margin accretion versus last year. Still in organic terms, gross margin expansion accounted for 140 basis point, thanks to favorable sales mix, which was driven by, on one end, the performance of Aperitifs and on the other end, the very strong performance of Premium Spirits expression. This, you know, factor was combined with the suspension of the U.S. import tariffs, as well as a stronger absorption of this production cost on the back of, you know, the higher production volumes of 2021.

Also, I'm mentioning that, you know, versus last year we had, you know, an easy comp base here, on the volume side. These positive effects were on the other end more than offset by the increase in input costs and logistic costs, as well as the dilutive effect of Espolòn, which in 2021 accounted for 50 basis points dilution due to the high cost of agave, with the latter lessening thanks to the price increases that we've introduced on the back end of last year. Organically, A&P increase accounted for 29.1% in value, showing 50 basis point margin dilution and moreover reflecting, you know, the strong investment behind key brands. The A&P step up, you know, did accelerate in the last quarter of the year.

As you can see in the chart in Q4, A&P was up in value 33.5%, delivering in the quarter 200 basis point dilution. SG&A organically in 2021 versus 2020 increased in value by 16.8%. You know, quite a strong growth but you know, that growth was lower than the top line and thus generating 160 basis point margin accretion, reflecting on one end the investments to strengthen group capabilities and the business infrastructures, as well as the expected structural cost phasing, where basically, you know, management incentives and hiring catch-up had some phasing effect in our P&L, which negatively impacted the last quarter of the year. As you can see in Q4, organically, the SG&A step up in value accounted for 29.6%, leading to 140 basis point margin dilution.

If you look at the performance over the two-year horizon, the organic change in EBIT versus 2019 was up 13% organically, generating 140 basis points dilution still, the catch-up to be done, which was mainly driven by the gross margin dilution accounting for 150 basis points due to dilutive effect of the Espolòn that is growing quite fast, recovering half of the margin shortfall that we've experienced in 2020 versus 2019 as expected as we've guided. The dilution effect of the A&P was broadly offset by the operating leverage of the SG&A on the back of strong top line growth. You know, we have 80 basis points dilution in A&P and 80 basis points accretion in SG&A.

Now, if you look at the reported change, you know, the overall performance including perimeter and FX versus last year in 2020, in 2021, EBIT adjusted grew by 35.2% in value, delivering 180 basis points margin accretion, where the negative perimeter effect of 2.6% accounted for EUR 8.3 million and was neutral on margin. On the other end, the FX effect was a negative 4.6% in 2021, with a negative impact of EUR 14 million in value at 50 basis points in terms of margin. This was clearly driven by the depreciation of the dollar versus the euro currency.

If we move on to the following page, you know, in one page, we have the summary of the segment reporting by region, where you can see that the Americas region that overall in terms of size accounts for 42.4% of the group in terms of EBIT. That region was, you know, remarkably, you know, growing at 44% clip, driving also 310 basis points margin accretion with gross margin expansion of 170 basis points, thanks to positive sales mix overall for the group, with outperformance of Import Brands, particularly high margin brands like, you know, Aperitifs and Premium Spirits, which more than offset the dilutive effect of Espolòn. A&P was diluted by 100 basis points and that was due to the step up of marketing investments behind global priorities.

The SG&A as a percentage of sales came in with an accretive effect of 140 basis points. This was clearly due to the strong top line growth of the region, which accounted for 23%. If you look at CEMEA, overall, it accounts for 16.4% of the overall profitability and was up 129% year-on-year. In 2020, clearly the region was heavily hit by COVID, given its strong exposure to the on-trade market as well as to the GTR channel, which is recognized in this region. Sorry, last year, in 2022, it largely managed to improve its EBIT weight on the overall group profitability, thanks to the very strong business recovery.

The margin improvement is also in this region quite staggering with 170 basis points margin accretion, driven on one hand by gross margin expansion of 70 basis points, where basically the lion's share comes from the margin accretion driven by the aperitifs but also due to the, you know, very strong top line growth that in the region accounted for 36%. The A&P was accreted by 100 basis points, notwithstanding the heavy investment behind the key brands in the region and particularly the investments that we've finalized on the on-premise channel. The SG&A expenses were as well accreted by 260 basis points, given the very robust top line growth.

Northern and Central Eastern Europe, which overall accounts for 37.73% of the overall group, was up in terms of EBIT by 26% and also in this region, we delivered 210 basis point margin accretion. With gross margin expansion of 170 basis point, again, driven by positive sales mix. A&P was slightly diluted by 50 basis point due to the accelerated investments behind the key brands, particularly the aperitif portfolio. While, you know, the SG&A on the contrary were accreted by 90 basis point, driven by significant efficiencies on the back of strong top line growth of the region. If you move on to APAC, it's still, you know, profit-wise quite tiny in the overall big scheme of things, with 6.9% of the overall profitability.

You know, we had a value decline of 13% of the EBIT versus last year and a dilution of 370 basis points, which was, you know, totally driven by the dilutive effect of A&P on the region profit and loss due to the accelerated investment behind key brands in some strategic Asian markets. The gross profit was clearly accretive also in these regions, whilst the SG&A, notwithstanding the significant investment in the region, were in line with sales and neutral on margin. If you move on to the following page, we show operating adjustments accounting for EUR 34.3 million, mainly attributable to restructuring initiatives, write-offs on minor brands and non-recurring last mile long-term incentive schemes, only partly mitigated by the positive adjustments resulting from the positive closure of a tax dispute in Brazil and one-off refund from our insurers.

Total financial charges came in at EUR 17.1 million, showing a reduction of EUR 21.7 million versus a year ago. Now, if we excluded the exchange gains, the financial expenses accounted for EUR 25 million versus EUR 35 million of last year, showing a decrease of EUR 9.8 million, despite a slightly higher level of average debt in 2021 versus 2020. Actually, this is driven by the compression of the average cost of net debt that now is 2.5%, notwithstanding the significant negative carry, you know, a quite meaningful improvement versus a year ago, of 100 basis points. This is due to the lower average coupon for our long-term debt, following the liability management initiatives that we've taken in 2020.

On the FX, still on the financial income, we report ex-FX gains of EUR 7.9 million this year, versus a loss of EUR 4.1 million a year ago. Financial adjustments accounted for EUR 4.7 million and this is the interest component positive of the benefit from the positive outcome of the fiscal dispute in Brazil. Profit before tax adjusted came in at EUR 416 million, up 48.9% versus a year ago. The total taxation accounted for EUR 105.6 million on a reported basis with recurring income tax equal to EUR 109 million. Therefore, group net profit adjusted came in at EUR 307.9 million, up EUR 52.4 million versus a year ago.

The recurring tax rate came in at 26.3%, improving compared versus a year ago, when you know where it came in at 37.9% and this is due to a favorable country mix. The deferred tax related to amortization of goodwill and brands amounted to EUR 15 million in value. Excluding the impact on non-cash component linked to deferred taxes, the group recurring cash tax rate stood at 22.7%, slightly down versus a year ago, 33.2% in 2020. Clearly, the improvement was mainly attributable to the tax benefit generated by the step-up value of brands and goodwill in Italy that we have, you know, already anticipated in the previous calls. The group net profit reported came in at EUR 284 million, up 61%. The basic earning per share adjusted was up 53.6% at EUR 2.37 per share.

Looking at the free cash flow, you know, again, a very solid delivery. You know, I think it's the highest ever with a recurring free cash flow of EUR 407.5 million, up EUR 145.8 million, 55%, 55.7% up in value versus a year ago. This is you know the EUR 145.8 million increase in free cash flow is driven by EUR 115 million increase in EBITDA due to the very strong business momentum. Taxes paid remained broadly unchanged with you know slight reduction of EUR 10.5 million. Very solid operating working capital management with a minor increase of EUR 5 million notwithstanding the very strong business mix momentum. Worthwhile noting that this, you know, further improvement of EUR 5 million comes on top of a EUR 43.4 million of operating working capital compression in 2020.

We have, you know, minor effects from hyperinflation accounting in Argentina. On other non-cash items, we have the EUR 54.7 million, primarily related to accrual and provision STIs and MTIs and including the effects of incentives catch up. Lower financial charges by EUR 9.6 million. Maintenance CapEx, EUR 81.9 million, up EUR 17.3 million versus last year. Extraordinary CapEx in 2021 accounted for EUR 53.8 million. The ratio of recurring free cash flow to EBITDA that is, you know, further growing from 65.4% of last year. In 2021, it came in at 79.1%. Very, very strong, you know, three years in a row of increasing recurring free cash flow on EBITDA. Page 34, we have the page of historical and projected and expected CapEx.

In 2020, in 2021, CapEx investment accounted for EUR 135.7 million, including ESG-linked CapEx of about EUR 10 million. You know, the breakdown of those investments is EUR 181.9 million on maintenance CapEx and EUR 53.8 million of extraordinary CapEx. If you look at the projected CapEx for next year, we're expecting to invest EUR 170 million with about 60% investment on the maintenance CapEx front and 40% investment on production capacity expansion projects, ESG projects, IT and brand houses. We move to page 35. We have the picture of the operating working capital changes. Operating working capital in 2021 increased by EUR 22.6 million. Where organically the decrease accounted for EUR 5 million as you saw before.

With, you know, EUR 5 million decrease in organic operating working capital decrease, we highlight an increase in inventory of EUR 60 million with aging liquid increase of EUR 23.8 million to support the quite fast development of The Glen Grant, our Jamaican rums and Espolòn. On the other hand, receivables were flat and payables increased by EUR 65.4 million, driven by the business growth. Parameter is tiny, whilst, you know, Forex on the back of, you know, the movement of the appreciation of the dollar had, you know, an uplift, an impact on uplift on operating working capital of EUR 25 million. As a percentage of net sales, operating working capital came in at 29.5%, down 540 basis points versus a year ago and down 810 basis points versus two years ago.

With regards to net financial position, year-end, the indebtedness stood at EUR 830.9 million, down by EUR 272 million versus a year ago, thanks to the quite strong free cash flow generation of EUR 332 million or, you know, flat and seven on a recurring basis. Dividend has been, you know, paid regularly, was EUR 61.6 million, cash flow play. What is important to highlight is that net debt to EBITDA ratio came down in a meaningful manner from 2.8 times to 1.6 times. I think, you know, I'm done with the numbers. I will hand back to Bob for his comments on sustainability and conclusion.

Bob Kunze-Concewitz
CEO, Campari Group

Thank you, Paolo. Yeah, I'm very happy to share the progress we're making in the sustainability area, starting with people, which together with our brands, are our most important assets. As an asset, we invest significantly in our people. In terms of commitment and focus, we're very committed on diversity, equity and inclusion. We're fostering this in the workplace with a multitude of multifunctional governance projects at all organizational levels. We're monitoring the progress through an internally developed DEI index, which is built both on the people surveys, which we do, as well as the GRI based KPIs. On the learning front, we're significantly dialing up what we're able to offer our people. We've developed a brand new digital ecosystem, which allows anytime, anywhere learning experiences.

With regards to rewarding and engagement, which is one of our strengths, clearly we're very happy to communicate that 61.6% of Campari sales have adhered to the employee stock ownership plan. This is quite an impressive figure for the launch of a new plan and benchmarked incredibly favorably versus other case studies. Moving on to responsible practices, we're continuing to remain very committed to responsible drinking. We have ad hoc and continuous training across the global marketing community, with a deep dive clearly on digital communication. Significant amount of educational sessions on responsible drinking for Campari staff, as well as with key stakeholders outside and particularly the bartenders community. At the same time, we'll continue to invest in building our non-alcohol offerings across the world. We're very proud on our achievements in the environment.

Well, first of all, I'd like to underline the fact that we're committing to net zero emissions by 2050. Now, if we look at the various elements on energy, we've already hit this year the 100% renewable electricity pledge for our European production sites. That has enabled us to reduce significantly our emissions per liter of beverage produced, which were actually down by 22%. Also on water, we reached last year our 2025 targets. We're revising these. Lastly, also in waste management, we remain committed to zero waste to landfill by 2025 and have a very good progress on a per liter produced basis. Last but not least, in terms of community involvement, we're clearly continuing to contribute to the fight against the pandemic by supporting our business partners, consumers, as well as hospitals in our main markets.

At the same time, we continue to be very active in our communities, both in terms of our sponsorships and involvement in the world of art, as well as through our foundations which promote assistance, training, education, charity in favor not only of Campari staff but also our local communities. This takes me to our conclusion and outlook. Now clearly 2021 was a very successful year for us and this is due to the very healthy brand momentum, which is also benefiting from revenge driven vitality and home mixology. This is leading to increased consumption and penetration across all of our brands and bodes very positively for the future. Now looking at 2022, we remain very confident, highly confident about the continued strong business momentum and we actually see accelerated consumer recruitment across our key brands.

We will continue to fully leverage our new consumption habits across both the on-premise and the off-premise channels. Very good momentum there. Regarding profitability, though, we will continue to leverage price increase opportunities and really focus on mitigating cost headwinds. Having said that, there are temporary and we think it's more a question of this year, input cost pressures, which are expected to intensify, particularly in the first half of this year. It mostly considers packaging raw materials, including agave, which isn't decreasing the way we expect it to, as well as logistics costs. This leads us to postponing our gross margin accretion, which we'd highlighted previously at 70 basis points, to the following year.

On the other hand, you know us very well, we're quite a long-term focused organization and we will continue to build our brands to our best of abilities and maintain a very competitive level of investments behind our brands as well as our capabilities in order to be best positioned to continue to fully benefit from the gradual phase out of the pandemic induced challenges and to really benefit from the consumer trends which have come up and which we will benefit from in the mid to long term. This is it in terms of 2021. You probably have tons of questions, so we're happy to take them.

Operator

Thank you. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. The first question is from Simon Hales with Citi. Please go ahead.

Simon Hales
Managing Director, Citi

Thank you. Good afternoon, Bob. Good afternoon, Paolo. A couple of questions from me, please. Firstly, I wonder, you know, could you just talk a little bit more about the moving parts in terms of the outlook for the flat EBIT margins for 2022? Also, specifically, you know, how big is the COGS cost inflation that you're now facing in the current fiscal year? And how long do you think those pressures on gross margins are going to last? Is it really just a 2022 issue and then we should see some sharp recovery in 2023 or do you think, you know, this could weigh into some of those outer years? So that's the first question.

Secondly, with regards to the pricing outlook in 2022, clearly you're gonna push harder on pricing and I imagine revenue management initiatives sort of generally in the year. But what sort of scale of price increases, you know, could we expect? You know, what have you been putting through in the second half of 2021 into to 2022? You know, how big an offset, you know, could we see to help mitigate some of those cost pressures?

Paolo Marchesini
CFO and COO, Campari Group

Thank you, Simon, for the two questions and I'll try to walk you through a little bit more the rationale of the guidance that we've given, you know. First and foremost, vis-a-vis the question whether we feel clearly nobody has a crystal ball that the input cost pressure is temporary or not. You know, we definitely believe it's a temporary effect and we believe in 2023 onwards the pressure will ease. Actually, even looking at 2022, we believe the first half of the year might be worse than the second half with this is what we're seeing in the market.

You know, if it is temporary or not, we believe it is temporary. Clearly vis-a-vis, you know, last guidance, the input cost pressure has, you know, further intensified. Basically we're now guiding towards, you know, an additional EUR 15 million-EUR 20 million cost of goods sold risk due to inflation. That is in about, you know, in another, you know, 2%. Overall, you know, if you may remember, you know, last time we reached out, we had guided the market for a 5% in value increase of cost and now we're in the region of 7%. This is net cost and volumes clearly all being equal. You know, 7% means, you know, about EUR 60 million of cost increase that is, you know, primarily coming from packaging materials, I have to say, you know.

Of that, you know, overall increase, 50% of it is coming from packaging materials, particularly glass that is negatively hit by the energy cost rise. You know, on glass we're seeing, you know, across all suppliers a double-digit growth of the cost. You know, the second component is within the ingredients. We have, you know, another 25% of that, you know, EUR 60 million increase and it's clearly coming from, you know, alcohol and sugar, where again, we're seeing, you know, double-digit growth in value increase of cost. You have the remaining 25%, that is coming from logistics primarily. That is, you know, I would say high single digit and other costs.

You know, the guidance that we're giving now is fully factoring in the, you know, the agave effect that, as Bob just said, you know, we hope it could be more benign. In reality, given, you know, the surge of the rise of the tequila category in the U.S. market, you know, it's not coming down as fast as we believed. Clearly, you know, there are mitigation factors, you know, in top line. The biggest one is and will always be, you know, the sales mix. We're quite confident on the growth trajectory of our global priority brands, you know, all of them, none excluded. You know, probably SKYY is more softish, flattish but the other brands are clear in a very good position.

Price increase, which we've alluded, will be, you know, more aggressive this year on this front, particularly on specialties and brown spirits, so brands with lower price sensitivity. Still looking into the top-line opportunities, you know, we have implemented a few years ago and, you know, we're reaping the fruits of it, you know, interesting revenue growth management initiatives in developed markets. This is clearly putting us in a position of spending, you know, less and better on promotions. It's clearly to the benefit of our average selling price. Now, if you look at the cost opportunities, because still, you know, the charge is not insignificant, we have first and foremost operational leverage due to fixed costs, which overall as a company, they account for about one third of the total spending.

In particular in production, about 20% of production cost is fixed. Within A&P, 10%, within SG&A, 85%, so it's big. Then, of course, we're not sleeping and we've launched, you know, productivity initiatives. You know, a few of them, just to mention, we've been, you know, more aggressive on the project of centralizing procurement of product-related and non-product related products and services. Some production efficiencies, efficiency programs in our 22 plants. We've aggressively started the decentralization of certain supporting activities in the support function, finance, AP and HR. For example, in finance, we're now moved into the central delivery of reporting and analytics and that is clearly delivering efficiencies.

You know, the biggest project for us this year is the migration to SAP S/4HANA platform, that enables us to use the artificial intelligence that would lead to higher efficiency and efficacy of the overall supporting functions. This is another important project that we have ahead of us. Clearly, as you mentioned before, in terms of pacing this year, it's a little bit unfortunate because, you know, we have stronger increase, you know, the cost increase is more skewed in H1, as said before, whilst, you know, the positive effect of the price increases, you know, are more skewed into H2. We will have, you know, two tough quarters in terms of margins to manage in Q1 and Q2 and then we expect an improvement in the second half of the year.

Simon Hales
Managing Director, Citi

Yes. No, that's really helpful, Paolo. Can I just sort of come back in terms of some of those sort of pricing and those sort of mitigation actions that you're hoping to take? I know you don't like to sort of comment on or give any sort of top-line guidance on a forward-looking basis but you know, if I look at where just consensus expectations are at the moment for 2022, looking for 7% organic sales growth for the group. You know, given you're looking for more aggressive pricing, given you talk about you know, more effective and efficient promotional activity, you know, is it possible that you think you could do better than where the market currently expects at the moment or are we too early to say?

Paolo Marchesini
CFO and COO, Campari Group

I think it's too early to say but you know, we all hope we'll be in a position of delivering better results. It's too early, you know, Q1 is a very small quarter and we need to see the effect of what's buying in the markets, you know. You have to take into consideration the fact that we're to a certain extent limited by logistics constraints in the back end of the year and minor effect I would say, particularly in Asian markets and on selected SKUs. The CPG market is not improving at all at the moment. You know, that's another, you know, variable that we need to put into our equation. In essence, yes, it's too early to call but on pricing, we're definitely, you know, moving quite aggressively, you know, on that area.

Having said that, we have very good momentum behind our brands. I mean, consumer demand is very solid. I would say also, you know, the trade is ready to accept the fact that, you know, across the board, all categories, all players are taking price. It's an easier discussion, if you will, in comparison to prior years.

Simon Hales
Managing Director, Citi

Understood. Thanks very much.

Operator

The next question is from Andrea Pistacchi with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Andrea Pistacchi
Managing Director, Bank of America

Yes. Hi, Bob. Hi, Paolo. I have three, please. The first one is a bit of an outlook for Europe. We talk a lot about the new normal in the U.S. but how do you see the new normal in Europe, Bob? Is the higher base with 15%-20% above 2019 levels, do you think this is really a new base upon which to grow? And how do you see the, let's say, the growth algorithm going forward in places like Italy, Germany? Is it probably a little bit better than it was pre-pandemic? Paolo, going back to the margins, I know of course you can't speak for your peers but some of your peers seem to be a little bit more optimistic on the margin outlook or at least they were a few weeks ago.

Is there anything that could explain why you would be more exposed to some of the cost pressures compared to the peers? Then again, on margins, please, on the A&P, which has been increased significantly, 26% over two years, 80 basis points higher than it was in 2019. You're emphasizing the continued reinvestment behind the brands. Thinking of 2022 and also more medium term, should we interpret this as of course you'll reinvest behind the brands but will the A&P to sales ratio continue to trend up, maybe?

Bob Kunze-Concewitz
CEO, Campari Group

Hi, Andrea. I'll take the first two questions, answering with the last one. You know, we see great opportunity for our brands and frankly, we're using that opportunity to accelerate our growth and that's where the heightened A&P comes in. Having said that, we've increased it quite a bit over the years and we feel comfortable that the current ratio will enable us to reach very good results in the years to come. We see that's more stable. With regards to the outlook for Europe, I mean, what we're seeing in Europe is clearly a stronger penetration of cocktail culture at home and we think this is here to stay. At the same time though, you know, as soon as, you know, the on-premise opens and the climate helps along, return to normality comes back very, very strongly.

We feel very good about the overall environment in Europe and particularly of our brands within that environment.

Paolo Marchesini
CFO and COO, Campari Group

Yeah. With regards to the margin guidance that is, you know, quite prudent and cautious as you've, you know, highlighted and you know, I cannot comment for competitors, you know, it's not my role. I think, you know, our guidance is prudent as, you know, other CPG companies did, you know, before without being specific. You know, just, you know, you can just read and probably, you know, the portion that is alignment is also due to the different, you know, perspective. You know, our fiscal year is January to December, so you know, I'm focusing on the 12 months to come to December. You know, I think probably that might explain. Clearly, you know, the growth trajectory of cost is there and we're not the only one, you know, seeing that.

If that changes over time, we'll figure it. You know, we will see. At the moment it is, you know, with that transparency what we're seeing.

Andrea Pistacchi
Managing Director, Bank of America

Thanks. Bob, if I could just for follow-up on what Seth said earlier about sort of Italy and Germany. Do you see any growth in these markets potentially? Could it be, I mean, at least in line with what it was pre-pandemic or slightly more as your growth of course got more momentum going forward even in the sort of aperitifs at home occasion?

Bob Kunze-Concewitz
CEO, Campari Group

Well, I think we're, you know, we have very, very good momentum and, you know, in going I wouldn't see why we shouldn't be able to achieve mid-single digit growth in Italy and high single digit growth in Germany, potentially more but that will depend a lot on what happens from a pandemic standpoint in the openings of the on-premise. Clearly, consumer demand is there.

Andrea Pistacchi
Managing Director, Bank of America

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Laurence Whyatt with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Laurence Whyatt
Managing Director, Barclays

Morning, Bob and Paolo. Thank you very much for the questions. The first one for me is regarding your balance sheet. It's now running extremely strongly and you've had a very good track record in the past of doing acquisitions. I remember you saying over the past few calls that you would be looking at any opportunities that came up. What's stopping you from making that acquisition? Is it the availability of the assets or the valuation or perhaps fitting into the portfolio? My second question on Q4 in particular, how much do you think the Omicron impact that either caused increased restrictions or changed consumer behavior, how much do you think that was responsible for Q4? And do you have any sense of what Q4 would've been had that not happened?

Finally, you mentioned travel retail at a level for the full year. Do you have a sort of exit level for travel retail during Q4 or perhaps at the end of Q4 versus pre-pandemic levels? Thank you very much.

Bob Kunze-Concewitz
CEO, Campari Group

Yeah. You know, what's keeping us from making deals, I mean, you know, frankly, we always look at making the best deals for our investors. We're very active in this area. There are many discussions happening. Sometimes one needs to be patient to hit really the right, I think, cocktail between, you know, quality of the asset, price and alignment to a flow with the seller. Having said that, you know, cash is not burning any hole in our pockets and we believe that we'll have very nice opportunities going forward. As I said, we're quite active on that front. We'll see when things go through. Now, the impact of Omicron on Q4, it's very difficult because we'd have to go and dissect it by market by market.

Obviously, what we saw is that as soon as Omicron hit in December, there's been a huge slowdown. You know, the first 2 October and November were quite strong and then, you know, December outlets were empty. Is it a third? Is it more? Who knows? But it definitely had an impact on it. With regards to GTR, I need to get back to you. You know, GTR is a little bit less than on a going basis of 2% of our sales. So I don't have the you know, such minute details on that. We view GTR as a great brand building channel for us. We're not necessarily chasing the dollars there.

Laurence Whyatt
Managing Director, Barclays

Understood. Thank you very much.

Bob Kunze-Concewitz
CEO, Campari Group

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Edward Mundy with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Edward Mundy
Managing Director, Jefferies

Afternoon, Bob, afternoon, Paolo. Three questions from me, please. Congratulations, first of all, on Negroni taking the top spot. Anecdotally, you know, what proportion of your sales do you think is from the Negroni and what proportion is from the non-Negroni based Campari drinks and how does that compare to, say, five years ago? You mentioned that there are three Campari-based drinks in the top 16 and you go on your website, there are dozens of Campari-based drinks. I'd love to understand better how, you know, the versatility of Campari is increasing. The second question is on the Notes Collection. It strikes me that, you know, given your experience and expertise with bitters, this is something you should be able to, you know, really leverage.

Can you talk a little bit more about the Notes Collection and, you know, what are you doing to really get some scale there? Then the third question is coming back to the whole pricing point. You know, your brands are, you know, very healthy. You know, Aperol and Campari as a product are a very, very small part of a cocktail and then you've got some great specialty brands where there is good pricing power. You know, why are you not taking more pricing at this stage? Can you just talk around, you know, some of the nuances there?

Bob Kunze-Concewitz
CEO, Campari Group

Yeah. Let me kick off with the Negroni. I mean, yet you know, when you're looking at our range of drinks, I think you need to segment them on the type of outlets. I mean, clearly Negroni is a top seller in the high-end mixology outlets. There I would expect you know, the Negroni to do probably half of our sales. If you go into you know, more mainstream or lounge like outlets, you'll start having you know, easier drinks coming in. I mean, take a case in point. In Italy, the Campari Spritz is already a quarter of our sales and we're seeing the Campari Spritz growing very rapidly internationally. You've got a wide range but it varies enormously from the type of outlet.

Having said that, most of the Americano and the Boulevardiers are actually variations of the Negroni. We'd have to add a little bit more to that total. Now, with regards to the Notes Collection, we're coming out with a range of big bottles where you have an aperitif, a digestif, as well as more of a mixer. They're very, very high quality liquids. These come at quite a premium price and they're focused in the first three-four years. We're only gonna focus on high-end mixology outlets and do the right job in building and driving the brand. It's not about getting a quick win to boost quarterly numbers by pushing it into the off-premise. We're not going to do that. We believe in the brand and we're gonna build it over time.

Clearly regarding to pricing, as Paolo, you know, highlighted earlier on, it is very varied and there's a stronger push on our aperitifs, which are, you know, proprietary brands, as well as, you know, selected aged brown spirits. We are maximizing it as we speak. There's no fears there. We will not miss any opportunities.

Edward Mundy
Managing Director, Jefferies

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Next question is from Trevor Stirling with Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Trevor Stirling
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Bernstein

Hi. Hi, Bob and Paolo. Three questions on my side as well. Maybe two related questions. If we're looking forward to more normalized growth of this new base, Bob and Paolo, how should we be thinking about SG&A? You know, we've had dilution over the last couple of years. We've also had some extraordinary growth over the last few years. Should we think about it as a roughly constant as a percentage of sales or continuing to drift on? The second thing on tax and again, I think exceptional growth rates going on, tax came down due to country mix. Is it likely to be stable from here going forward? Final question, just a point of clarification, Bob. When you say net zero by 2050, is that across scopes 1, 2 and 3?

Bob Kunze-Concewitz
CEO, Campari Group

Yeah, I'll take the last one. Yes, it is across scopes one, two and three. No question. It's an important commitment on our part and something we're gonna tackle and we're working on as we speak to develop an aggressive plan over the years.

Paolo Marchesini
CFO and COO, Campari Group

Yeah. With regards to the question with regards to the SG&A base versus forecast to project future expectation. You know, we're not expecting any drift in the SG&A line as a percentage of sales. On the contrary, potentially this is an opportunity given the very strong top line that we're seeing. On the tax, you know, the current tax rate, you know, we expect to be pretty stable going forward.

Trevor Stirling
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Bernstein

Super. Thank you very much, Bob and Paolo.

Bob Kunze-Concewitz
CEO, Campari Group

Thank you, Trevor.

Paolo Marchesini
CFO and COO, Campari Group

Bye, Trevor.

Operator

The next question is from Mitch Collett with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Mitch Collett
Managing Director, Deutsche Bank

Hi, Bob. Hi, Paolo. Given what you said about logistics constraints and I guess looking at your slide 6, where I guess if you think about it on a two-year stack, the sellout, which I appreciate is, on off-trade only, looks like it's maybe lagging sell-in. Can you maybe comment on where your inventories are globally and whether there are any areas where you haven't shipped quite enough and there's scope for that to catch up this year? And then my second question is you talk about accelerated consumer recruitment. Is there any reason why that wouldn't lead to accelerated revenue growth in 2022 and beyond? And I guess I'm thinking about that relative to the type of CAGR you've achieved across 2020 and 2021. Thanks.

Bob Kunze-Concewitz
CEO, Campari Group

Hi, Mitch. Thank you for the questions. Yeah. Clearly the sellout data is off-premise and the gap between that and the trend in shipments is the on-premise. You know, we've had very strong growth in the on-premise across all of our markets. Honestly, with regards to inventories, we're running very low in inventories across markets. Yes, there could be some recovery but I think, you know, the consumer demand is strong, so I don't think we will see meaningful moves in inventory at the trade level. No, the accelerated consumer recruitment means we're gonna have more events. We're gonna intensify our digital efforts. You know, if the environment remains benign, we would expect an acceleration of the top line. Having said that, the environment is not benign. I mean, we have strong inflationary pressures.

We have strong geopolitical pressures. You know, at this stage, you know, we think it's a little bit premature to, you know, have an outlook with towards the upside. We feel good about the brands. We feel good about the fans. We have to see what happens and how, you know, in the external world, how that will impact the psyche of the consumer.

Mitch Collett
Managing Director, Deutsche Bank

That's helpful. Thank you.

Paolo Marchesini
CFO and COO, Campari Group

Yeah, with regards, you know, let me add, you know, something here. With regards to operating working capital trajectory, what are we going to expect for next year? You know, given the fact that we run stocks down both at distributor level but also within the company and we’ve ended up with an operating working capital on sales that is in an all-time low. You know, our goal is looking at 2022 to have working capital on sales to be at the level of 2020. So, two years ago, 34.8% versus 29.5% of this year.

Because, you know, this very low level of stock is clearly creating, you know, pressure on our supply chain and, you know, increases, you know, the chances of ending up in out-of-stock situation whenever you have issues with the CPL or, you know, suppliers of raw materials. That's something we want to do our like.

Mitch Collett
Managing Director, Deutsche Bank

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Chris Pitcher with Redburn. Please go ahead.

Chris Pitcher
Managing Director, Redburn

Good afternoon. A couple questions from me. Firstly, could you give us a bit more detail on your CapEx, which is running at just under 8% of sales this year, which is certainly high versus your peers and historically? How much are you expanding production capacity by? How long do you expect these levels to be maintained? Because you're spending more than double depreciation, which shouldn't be creating the margin pressure this year and then the next year. Secondly, to follow up on the tequila question, how much have Espolón's gross margins now fallen from the peak? Are they below 50%? Because to justify the 50 basis points drag, it has to be more than just sales mix.

When we look at agave, has the cost of the agave production gone structurally higher, such that you expect it to rebase now at an elevated level, certainly much higher than perhaps when you bought two, three years ago? Thank you.

Paolo Marchesini
CFO and COO, Campari Group

Well, with regards to CapEx, you know, a good portion of the extraordinary CapEx is made to step up our production capacity in plants where you know we produce brands that are on very fast growth trajectory, mainly you know the aperitifs. You know we have plans to expand capacity in Italy, in Mexico as well. Then we have also you know a project in Jamaica for waste treatment purposes. These are you know. On top of that, of course, there are you know investments that are more you know marketing led, you know the brand houses typically where. Which are, you know, very effective marketing tool to build up the equity of our brands.

Bob Kunze-Concewitz
CEO, Campari Group

Clearly, also, there's one big impact in this year's, which is due to the purchase of an office in the U.K. I mean, with the change in the IFRS, it actually and the fact that, you know, your whole lease becomes debt, it makes a lot of sense to actually start investing in fixed assets. We found a great location and we're renovating it. That is something which I think will be a benefit to the group for the long term.

Chris Pitcher
Managing Director, Redburn

Perhaps if you're on the maintenance CapEx, which will be running at around EUR 100 million, which is EUR 40 million above where it was two years ago, is that an ongoing maintenance CapEx number or does that drop off as well as the extraordinary CapEx going forward?

Paolo Marchesini
CFO and COO, Campari Group

Yeah. You know, you have to see it as a new level. I would say, you know, you cannot be 100% precise. It will be between, I would say, 1,800, something like this. You have, I think, a question on Espolòn. You know, that's clearly Espolòn is driving margin dilution. We do not disclose profitability by a margin, by brand but it's clearly driving meaningful dilution going forward. Still, you know, we believe that the agave price will retrench. It will become. It will get back to its original position that is a key contributor to group gross margin expansion. Typically, you know, the price positioning of tequila and particularly of Espolòn is quite healthy. The cost of production is, you know, comparable to the cost of production of other brands.

You know, it. The problem sits with the, you know, the agave ingredient. You know, the day that is sorted out, you know, it will become, you know, another source of gross margin expansion going forward.

Chris Pitcher
Managing Director, Redburn

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Ryan Simpson with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Ryan Simpson
VP of Equity Research, JPMorgan

Good afternoon, Paolo. I have two questions from me, please. Firstly, just actually following on from that last question on the agave price. Can you confirm that?

Bob Kunze-Concewitz
CEO, Campari Group

Sorry, it's very difficult to hear you because there's noise in the background.

Ryan Simpson
VP of Equity Research, JPMorgan

One second. Can you hear me now?

Bob Kunze-Concewitz
CEO, Campari Group

Yeah.

Ryan Simpson
VP of Equity Research, JPMorgan

Sorry about that. Just saying in terms of the agave prices, can you confirm that I think you'd expected back in Q3 that the agave prices to come down to, I think, low-to-mid 20s MXN? Can you confirm that at this point your view for 2022, the agave price will stay sort of the mid- to high 20s MXN price point generally? As well in terms of brand momentum, I'd say that the Espolòn brand overall has done quite well in the market over the last two years but we have seen a step up in some of the competition from some of the celebrity-owned brands and in particular I'm thinking of the Teremana. Around that, the price point where agave is now, are you seeing any risk to the Espolòn brand franchise from these new brand entrants?

Do you think there is the potential for a shakeout of these smaller brands within the segments? Also the Cabo Wabo brand momentum, I know that hasn't been a focus within the sort of super premium segment but what are you doing to give yourself scale within the upper end of the tequila market?

Bob Kunze-Concewitz
CEO, Campari Group

Yeah, I mean, Espolòn is clearly our priority and when it comes to, you know, constraints in agave availability, we privilege Espolòn over Cabo. The brand is really on fire across and has huge opportunity. We're currently going through, you know, a capacity expansion which, over time will triple the expansion and that will enable the brand to actually grow at a faster rate, versus the rate at which it's capped at currently. So, we feel very confident about the brand and particularly, you know, we will be able to revert to international expansion starting in the second half of this year as that capacity starts coming in online. On agave prices?

Paolo Marchesini
CFO and COO, Campari Group

Yeah, on the agave prices, we're expecting, you know, a still minor reduction versus, you know, a year ago. You know, last year, you know, the average price was at about MXN 27 per kilo. You know, for this year, we're expecting to come down a little bit but not in a meaningful manner. You know, we're not seeing, you know, a huge drop in prices. You know, MXN 1, 2, 3 possible but not more than that.

Ryan Simpson
VP of Equity Research, JPMorgan

Thank you.

Bob Kunze-Concewitz
CEO, Campari Group

There's an exacerbated pace of innovation of the market with new brands coming in which are currently sucking up what would have been available in terms of additional agave in normal times.

Ryan Simpson
VP of Equity Research, JPMorgan

Okay. Actually just with regards to your expansion plans within China, have they gone broadly in terms of your, what you were speaking to back in 2021? Like, what are your ambitions there for the market in 2022? Also, how has trading been over the Chinese New Year period?

Bob Kunze-Concewitz
CEO, Campari Group

Well, our ambitions in China haven't changed but clearly execution has become more challenging with the Zero-COVID policy. Because as soon as a few cases pop up in a city, the city gets shut down for a few weeks. That not only has an impact on consumption overall but it clearly creates havoc with events planning, promotional and activations. Having said that, you know, we're continuing to grow triple digits across the key brands, so we feel good about it. Having said that, though, you know, if it were at a normal situation from a, let's say COVID perspective, clearly we would be trending even stronger.

Ryan Simpson
VP of Equity Research, JPMorgan

Very true. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Alessandro Tortora with Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Alessandro Tortora
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Yes. I was asking to everybody. I have, let's say, three questions for me. The first one is related to the just a curiosity on the pricing policy. If this is, let's say, a policy widespread across the brand portfolio, for instance, you know, let's say fast track on the global priority brands. The second question is a follow-up on Espolòn, which I think is officially joined the global priority team for you. Can you clarify the capacity expansion which should triple just to have a better idea of the existing production capacity with Espolòn? The last question is on the SG&A side. If I understood well, in the last part of the year, basically you had some non-recurring, let's say, incentives on this line.

I would like to understand, let's say if this is, let's say, correct or not. Thanks.

Bob Kunze-Concewitz
CEO, Campari Group

Let me take the first two. I mean, I'm not sure I understood what your question was with regard to pricing policy. You know, I can only reiterate that clearly across the portfolio, we focus much more on pricing on our proprietary brands, on the aperitifs, as well as on, you know, aged brown spirits brands. So that is if you want the policy and the reality of things. Now, with regards to Espolòn, you might have more of a crystal ball than me because you're already seeing it as a global priority where we're still seeing it as a regional priority. The reason for that is not, let's say, the potential of the brand. The potential of the brand is clearly global, no question about that.

As I highlighted earlier, currently, we are constrained from a production standpoint, from a distillation standpoint and the new capacity will still start coming online in the second half of this year. We'll be able to start expanding the brand in more markets or actually even supply international markets the amount of product which they are currently requesting. No question about that. We do not disclose what the capacity of our different distilleries are. Clearly, there's been a huge change over these 10 years in the size, the scope and the capabilities of our distillery. I mean, it's a completely different production facility compared to what we started with 10 years ago.

Alessandro Tortora
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Thank you.

Paolo Marchesini
CFO and COO, Campari Group

Yeah. With regards to the SG&A, you know, I think, you know, overall, the 2021 level of the SG&A is to be seen as, you know, the base to project, you know, et cetera, going forward. Although, you know, if you look in isolation the fourth quarter of the year, you know and you compare it to the first quarter of last year, there are, you know, some distortions due to the fact that, you know, on one hand in 2020, you know, due to the pandemic and the poor performance of the business, the incentive plans have been negatively impacted and therefore, you know, the accruals were artificially low.

On the other end, this year, we're in an opposite position where, you know, very strong business performance is leading to, you know, making higher accruals. This is true for, you know, yearly bonuses but also for long-term bonuses. We're basically every year, you know, even on long-term bonuses, you know, the catch up of those bonuses based on indeed such projection of the business. Yes, you know, we have, as said, you know, a very adverse fourth quarter comparison versus the first quarter of a year ago. But looking into 2022, you know, we confirm that, you know, the overall base is a solid base to project future expectations.

Alessandro Tortora
Equity Research Analyst, Mediobanca

Okay, thanks.

Operator

The next question is from Paola Carboni with Equita. Please go ahead. Ms. Carboni just withdrew her question. There are no more questions registered at this time.

Bob Kunze-Concewitz
CEO, Campari Group

Okay. Well, thank you very much for joining us. We appreciate the interest and we'll continue to maximize our sales and go back to building the business. Talk to you soon. Thank you. Bye-bye.

Paolo Marchesini
CFO and COO, Campari Group

Bye-bye.

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