Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Generali's 2024 Investor Day. Today, we have four presentations for you. Our Group General Manager, Marco Sesana, will provide you a deep dive on the protection, health, and accident business. Jaime Anchústegui, CEO of International, and Carlo Trabattoni, CEO of Generali Asset & Wealth Management, will provide you an overview on the deals we made during this year with Liberty Seguros and with Conning. And then, Cristiano Borean, our Group CFO, will update you on cash, capital, and IFRS 17. After a short break, we will have a Q&A session, that we will end at around 5:30 P.M. But, before doing that, our Group CEO, Philippe Donnet, and our new CEO of Insurance, Giulio Terzariol, would like to share with you some introductory remarks. So let me welcome on stage our Group CEO, Philippe Donnet.
Good afternoon, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for attending our Investor Day today. With 11 months left, until the conclusion of our Lifetime Partner 24: Driving Growth strategic plan, we are on track to deliver all our key financial targets. Our recent results confirm that Generali enjoys a very strong financial position and is a profitable and diversified insurance and asset management group. This is even more remarkable as the current macroeconomic environment is very different from when the plan was designed. I would like to draw your attentions to four key points. First, our Life business has remained sound, even in an adverse environment. In 2023, we heard many concerns on lapses, but the strength of our proprietary distribution largely shielded our portfolio from this trend.
Also, as you know, lapses occurred almost entirely in the bancassurance channel. Over the past few years, we restructured our product offering, moving away from the traditional savings business. At the same time, we have developed the protection business, which is not exposed to this trend, and in addition, which is highly profitable and growing very fast. Our General Manager, Marco Sesana, will give you more detail about this protection business. Second, we continued to reinforce our market position in the key countries in which we want to operate. In the insurance business, scale matters. It enables us to drive pricing, it reinforces brand recognition, and it forces cross-selling. It is also attract.
It is also critical to attracting top talent of the industry, to extracting synergies, and to making the investments, and especially on digital investment, that will continue to make Generali even more profitable and more competitive in the next few years. It is through this lens that you should look at the Liberty Seguros transaction, and our CEO International, Jaime Anchústegui, will go into more detail in his presentation today. Third, we maintain a strong conviction that there are significant synergies from integrating a large, stable, long-duration live book together with an efficient asset management platform. The asset management sector was impacted by significant market moves in 2022 and the first half of 2023.
This was particularly challenging in the fixed income space, where most of our group's assets under management are invested, resulting in a negative market effect due to the increase in interest rates. This partially reversed towards the end of 2023. Furthermore, the asset management industry has continued to experience outflows from actively managed funds and inflows into passive strategies, adding to the headwinds from the market effect. But even taking into consideration these factors, we have the right long-term strategy to become a top-tier global asset manager. This is about enhancing our customer-centric culture, expanding our product offering, focusing on operational excellence and technology, and scaling up our third-party business. To accelerate this strategy, and in particular, expand our third-party business, we announced the acquisition of Conning Holdings and its affiliates in July 2023.
Our CEO, Asset & Wealth Management, Carlo Trabattoni, will provide you with a deep dive on this deal, which will be our key focus for the next few years... as it sets the platform on which we will continue to execute our vision for asset management. Finally, Generali has truly transformed its business and its balance sheet over the recent years. Today, we have a highly cash-generative business with a strong and stable Solvency II ratio, and one of the lowest leverage ratios of the industry. As a result of this, we are updating our risk appetite framework range, bringing down its upper end to 230%. Our Group CFO, Cristiano Borean, will provide you an update on our cash and capital position, explaining why we are convinced that this is the right thing to do, and feel so confident about it.
We will maintain a relentless focus on cash, as demonstrated by the fact that two of our three key financial targets are cash-based. In addition, under the new accounting standards, the life operating result will be more stable, more predictable, and better protected against market volatility. Thanks to the targeted and disciplined acquisition we have completed over the past five years, Generali is now more resilient and less exposed to capital markets. We also have a much more attractive level of diversification, both in terms of business mix and geographical presence. Going forward, we will look for the most efficient balance between M&A and share buybacks, also on a yearly basis, in order to keep creating sustainable value for all our stakeholders.
This is also why, at our next annual general meeting in April, we will submit a EUR 500 million share buyb- share buyback plan for shareholder approval to be launched this year, obviously subject to all relevant approvals. In conclusion, we are now in the last year of our strategic plan, and I am proud to see our group in the best shape it has ever been. I'm also proud of how we are continuing to embed sustainability in everything we do as a responsible insurer, investor, employer, and corporate citizen. We are already working on the next plan, which, we will present to you early next year. This process will also benefit from the, insight, experience, and passion of, Giulio Terzariol, our new CEO of Insurance.
I am very happy to have him on board, and his appointment speaks volumes about the ability of Generali to attract top industry talent. This is critical in a business where people make the real difference. I thank you for your attention, and now I leave the floor to Giulio. Thank you.
Thank you, Philippe, and good afternoon. It's a pleasure to see so many familiar faces in the room today. This is my first public event with Generali in my new role, and I will keep it brief as we have four exciting presentation coming up. But I want to cover with you three topics today: why I have joined Generali, my role as CEO of Insurance, and also what I'm going to be focused on in the next years. As you all know, I left a great company like Allianz, where I spent 26 years. That's half of my life, and it's clear that you are not leaving something special unless you are convinced that you are going to join another company of pristine quality.
On a personal note, also, I felt ready for a new opportunity and a new adventure, and of course, Italy is also my home country, so it's a privilege, clearly, to be in a senior role at the most prestigious financial institution in Italy. In my, in my previous role, as you can imagine, I was always observing the development of our competitors very closely, and the development of Generali has impressed me a lot. If you look at the financials, the operating delivery has been strong and consistent, the solvency ratio is outstanding, and as Philippe was saying, we reduced sensitivities. And on top of that, there was also a very dynamic improvement in net remittances over the last years. Also, as the CFO, I could clearly appreciate the quality of the financial and non-financial disclosure.
And when you think about that, all these positive developments have been recognized also by rating agency. Just look at the upgrade by Fitch to single A in September of last year, and also look at the sustainability rating of the MSCI at triple A. So basically, no matter where you look at, there is quality, and that's also reflected in a very strong brand and a very strong franchise value.... Obviously, behind all these good developments, there are people. I always had very deep respect for the quality of the management team of Generali. And when I was approached last year for a potential role at Generali, I, from the very beginning, felt that we were sharing the same value. We had also a very good chemistry, and also I could feel what was the talent, the professionalism, and also the conviction of the whole management team.
After 30 days of being in the role, I can tell you that all these, outside impressions have been confirmed, and on top, I found that the quality of the people is outstanding, deep into the organization. And also found that there is a very proud company, a very proud employee base, and this is also reflected in the outstanding employee engagement survey results. In summary, the bottom line is that over the last years, I have witnessed the transformation of Generali into a stronger, more resilient, and highly competitive insurance and asset management group. Now, clearly, my observations today are not just about, taking stock and dispensing compliments to Philippe and his team for the great job they did.
I'm excited about having the opportunity now to bring my skills and experience to the business, and I'm also sure that I can bring additional perspectives, approaches, and solutions to the challenges and opportunities in front of us. As CEO of Insurance, a big part of my role is going to work together with Marco and the country CEOs to drive business performance on the product side, on the distribution side, on the underwriting side. Our teams will work hand in hand, sharing detailed information and insights from the frontline of the business in order to drive actions by transforming these insights into action. It's an important part of my mission to ensure that the group initiatives are going to be implemented in an effective, fast, and consistent way throughout the entire organization and throughout the entire insurance operation, Generali.
Then, as you know, we have a new accounting standards or two new accounting standards that have significant implication for our industry. This actuarial intensive framework requires management teams on the business side to have a good grasp of how the actions are impacting the IFRS 17 results. In general, more broadly, I believe that insurance is a very technical business that demands a very solid understanding of its economics and how they are represented under different accounting standards. Might be local, might be IFRS, might be also Solvency II, and eventually, how all this impacts capital and liquidity. In this sense, Generali, we position, we reposition quite uniquely, considering that a former CFO is going to be in charge of the insurance operation, and clearly, I'm looking forward to work very closely with Cristiano on this front. As a CEO of Insurance, I will have four key business priorities.
The number one is maintain the focus on technical excellence in P&C, and on the life side, make sure that we have the needed speeds of product adaptation, considering the constant change in the standard environment. The second priority is clearly to look for growing our customer base, thanks to superior products and service offering. The third priority is about pushing the productivity agenda by streamlning processes and adopting new technologies. And finally, last but not least, clearly, optimize the cash conversion of the local GAAP of our subsidiary in order to ensure that we have growing and sustainable cash remittances to the group.
I'm strongly convinced that Generali has a lot to gain in the next years by applying a more centralized approach to the way we run our businesses and to the way we steer our businesses with a simpler organizational structure and also a leaner way of running processes. This approach will be also underpinned by the adoption of technological innovation in order to ensure a sustainable future. This is an exciting time for me to join Generali, as we are developing the new strategic plan to be presented in 2025. But at the end of the day, we also know what the rules of the game are. It's all about, as always, delivery.
What I can tell you is that we have the quality of the people, we have the culture, we have the balance sheet, we have the discipline, and we are hungry, and we are a team. On this one, I'd like to take the opportunity to thank my new colleagues because you made me feel at home and part of the team from day one, and this means clearly a lot to me. I look forward to working with the new colleagues on our strategic planning, on our execution, and to contributing to the next successful stage of this great company. That's all for, from me for now. I look forward to speaking to you during the breaks today, and clearly, I'm looking forward to connecting with you over the next months. And now, I turn over to Marco to kick off the presentation. Thank you.
So, thank you, Giulio. Welcome on board and on stage, effectively. And, good afternoon to everyone. My presentation today will focus on protection, health, and accident, which is an important and highly profitable business that has a strong growth potential. This business have benefited and will continue to benefit from a strong and growing demand from our customer. In fact, they are already relevant contributors to the group operating result, thanks to the structural tailwind they enjoy from a socioeconomic trends that are here to stay. The numbers in, displays in this presentation are, from the period 2018-2022, and therefore are accounted under IFRS 4, and provide a view, an historical view of the business. In 2022, protection, health, and accident represented 22% of the group gross written premium.
More importantly, there are four key reasons why Generali is well positioned to capture growth opportunities. So first, we are leader in personal lines. Second, we have a very effective distribution network and then strategy focus on increasing our multi-holding customers. Third, we have a very strong brand. And lastly, our product offering has been redesigned to better fulfill client needs in line with our lifetime partner proposition. As you know, our focus is on profitable growth, so these businesses enjoy superior and sustainable margins as they are personalized solution for our customers. So the market often look at our life business as mainly a saving or a unit-linked business. But as I have stressed multiple times, protection generates around 40% of our new business value and is a significant contributor to our CSM growth.
So let me also remind you that this is not impacted by the lapse dynamics that we are seeing in some specific segment. So let's look at the customer perspective now. We see a steady and gradual increase in demand for protection solution. In part, this is a normal reflection of an aging population. As you get older, you are naturally more focused on protecting your well-being and taking care of your beloved ones. At the same time, younger generation are taking more interest in this product. In most mature market, I would say Millennial and Gen Z customer, as high as 40% and 50% in some countries, are actively considering purchasing protection within their life coverages. Customers are more focused on protecting their living standard and quality of life.
Each household has a very different and specific needs, so it is essential to be able to provide a full range of flexible and modular solutions. It is also critically important to be able to correctly identify how those needs change over time. So being close to the customer, whether it is physically or digitally, is very important. And our Lifetime Partner 24 and the power of our distribution is extremely important here. So beyond the aging population, there are other two forces that are driving additional demand for protection. First, there is a clear emerging focus on preventing health condition and managing existing chronic diseases. For these customer wants covered, it enriches and complements the traditional insurance and medical services. Moreover, protection and health have always been areas of extensive underinsurance, impacting many people and resulting in very high out-of-pocket expenditure.
In our main markets, so Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, this is around EUR 120 billion. The pandemic has accelerated this trend and piled further pressure into the national healthcare system. This large gap in protection and health in core Europe present a significant growth opportunity for a player like Generali. Protection business has been an area of focus for us for several years and is even more important within the new strategic plan. It is our strong conviction that closing the protection gap represents the new normal for the insurance sector in the post-pandemic world. This business enable us to leverage our existing leadership in core market and expand beyond saving with a limited acquisition cost. It is also a business where our technical excellence is key to driving growth with a limited strain on capital...
Thanks to the protection business, we are offering product with ESG feature. In fact, in 2022, our solution with ESG component increased by 11.7%, reaching a level of EUR 20 billion. So finally, we will increase profitability and deliver a high-quality customer experience by scaling and integrating platform, improving the operating machine, and this will be an even bigger priority for the future. So these slides show how important it has become, this segment, for the group. Thanks to the rapid growth delivered in recent year, this segment now represent over EUR 18 billion in gross written premium. This reflects the underlying demand from our customer and the rejuvenated focus of our group.
Protection, health, and accident now exceed 22% of group gross written premium, and we expect to further increase this at year-end 2023, as growth continue to outpace other business line. So, in summary, business line with higher profitability are growing, and while lower margin and more capital-intensive traditional line of business in Life are declining. On top of this, P&C segment is also benefiting from this trend. To take advantage of this growth opportunity, we have implemented a comprehensive set of four initiatives. First is our define and redesign product offering. Our key competitive advantage is having a tailor-made solution that respond to the local requirements and each market and of each market, and the specific need of each customer. As an example, our new long-term care offering is a respond to the growing demand with and we see a huge potential for this product.
Another key area of focus is on individual and SME, where the ability to leverage our personalized approach is even greater and margin are even bigger. Second, technical excellence. Underwriting the right risk at the right price is the core of what we do here at Generali. Applying technical excellence to protection, health, and accident business line will enable us to translate this opportunity into a growing and sustainable profit engine for the future. Third, on distribution, I have already mentioned how important it is, to leverage our agents, but let me also stress that all the acquisition we have made in recent years are helping, and I'm referring to Cattolica, for example, and La Médicale. Finally, our operational efficiency is enhanced by automation solution that enable the business to be leaner at the lower cost while maintaining a top-class customer experience.
We have broadly adopted digital and AI-based technologies to improve protection processes. In multiple country, for example, Spain, Italy, we process over 90% of policy application in a completely automated way. So life protection business has been a key focus for our product factories and distribution network, reflecting our strategy to improve the quality of our role, overall life business. The number on the slide are focused on pure protection, which cover risk of death, disability, critical illness, and long-term care. They demonstrate a robust and constant growth achieved since 2018 across all of our regions. This is especially clear when we look at the new business value. In 2022, the growth trajectory of the present value of new business premium was impacted by the increase in interest rate. This trajectory, though, is expected to continue in 2023 and 2024.
If you look at the new IFRS 17 metrics, in 2023, we recorded a robust growth, both in term of gross insurance revenues and operating insurance service result. Looking ahead, our objective is to continue to developing life protection across all geographies. As you can see from the new business margins data, this is a highly profitable business line in the range of 12%. So to foster this business, we have implemented an extensive modular and multi-line approach. As you can see in this slide, new business production come from both standalone product, which include service and coverages, and from riders embedded into the Life offering. Almost half of our Life products are designed with rider, including into the coverage to reflect the local demand. Key feature includes disability, term life, and as you can see, to a lesser extent, critical illness.
This mostly comes from hybrid offering, which has been one of our major focus in the last years. In this way, we can offer flexible protection solution to our customer. So life protection has become a key component of our offering and personal aspect, and we are combining financial and personal aspect in a single proposition, including also P&C policies. So there are many great example that we could make across the group of this proposition, especially in Germany, France, and CEE. On this slide, we take a closer look at the development of our long-term care in Italy. This is a market, the market segment that Generali has really shaped over the last years, and we continue to expand. Our market share now is over 50%, and our premium are growing at double-digit rates annually with high margin.
For example, Scegli per una Lungav ita, the offer that we have in Generali, Italy, enjoy a new business margin of 11%. We plan to further increase penetration within our customer base by focusing on emerging needs associated with the loss of independence. This segment presents significant barrier to entries to other insurer, as it requires close proximity to the customer, extensive agent training, and very strict underwriting process. These are all key characteristic of Generali. Even in time of economic uncertainty, long-term care is showing resilience and contributing to further progress, driven by macro trends of an aging population and capacity constraints. So our health and accident business has also significantly expanded in line with the growing demands across, I would say, all the different market in Europe.
We want to have an important role in helping our customer, avoiding high out-of-pocket spending by providing relevant covers and services. Thanks to our disciplined approach, we have delivered a strong improvement in technical result, reflecting the effectiveness of the measure across all the group. In 2022, the combined ratio of this line reached 93%. A temporary reduction in claims during the COVID-related lockdown also partially offset the negative impact of the outbreak itself. Health and accident insurance revenue grew at the same pace in 2023, and the operating insurance service result was robust, despite the increase of cost of medical care and higher number of claims. To close, let me share some final remarks. Protection, health, and accident have all enjoyed strong growth in recent year and are now an important and highly profitable segment for our group.
We are convinced about their future growth potential, thanks to the clear underlying customer demand. Generali is well positioned to capture this demand, also being fully aligned with our sustainability ambition. Looking ahead, we will leverage our highly effective and well-trained distribution force, as well as our revamped product offering, which is flexible, modular, and tailor-made. Finally, we expect profitability to remain high, thanks to our technical discipline in underwriting and our automation, complete automation, I would say, of the value chain. Thank you for your attention, and let me now hand over to Jaime.
Thank you, Marco. Good afternoon, everyone. I am glad to be here today to present our acquisition of Liberty Seguros. We signed this agreement with Liberty Mutual in June last year. I am pleased to say that the deal is expected to close soon, having obtained all required regulatory clearance. For the purpose of today's presentation, and as regards the level of disclosure of information, Generali is still bound by the terms of confidentiality agreement with Liberty Mutual. This is one of the Generali's most significant insurance acquisitions for several years, and the transaction is fully aligned with Generali's Lifetime Partner 24: Driving Growth strategy and our disciplined approach to M&A.
It will enhance the group's growth profile, it will further develop our property and casualty business, and it will strengthen our leadership position in Europe while further diversifying our sources of earnings from geographical standpoint. We acquired a profitable insurance business in three growing European markets that enjoy very attractive characteristics. The acquisition will create, will create significant long-term value for all the stakeholders. It will also benefit from our proven track record of successfully integrating the companies we acquire within our core markets. In fact, we estimate that the pre-tax contribution to the bottom line from the integration of Liberty Seguros by end of 2029 will be above EUR 250 million. Let me start with a quick overview of what we are buying. As you know, Liberty Seguros is currently part of Liberty Mutual, a large American insurance player.
Liberty Mutual has been present in Europe for over 20 years and has grown through a number of acquisitions. Today, Liberty Seguros operates in Europe as a single company, primarily in Spain, Portugal, and Ireland. In the past 4 years, Liberty Seguros implemented strategic actions to streamline its operation, rationalize its product offering, and exit non-core lines of business. This creates an opportunity to Generali. We are convinced there is a strong potential to generate significant economies of scale, as well as complementary alignment in terms of channel and product mix. Liberty's large presence in the motor business and its focus on the distribution channels where Generali is less strong will complement our offer in Spain and Portugal. This will also create interesting opportunities for cross-selling.
In terms of business mix, today, Liberty distributes mostly motor products, representing circa 64% of its total gross written premiums for 2022, which represents a 4.5% market share. The remaining, thirty-six percent is made up of other property and casualty non-motor lines, primarily home insurance, which accounts for 16% of gross written premiums. If you compare this to Generali, in Spain, our share of motor business is 21% of gross written premiums, which represent a 4.6% market share. Combining the motor business of Generali and Liberty will give us a 9% market share, bringing us into the top four in the segment. This demonstrates that the product offering of Generali and Liberty Seguros are highly complementary, with very limited cannibalization risk.
Specifically on the distribution side, the integration of Liberty will allow us to expand into the direct and B2B2C channels. 40% of Liberty's business comes from these sources. In contrast, Generali Spain and Generali Portugal both distribute over 80% of their business through agents and brokers. This complementary fit in terms of product mix and the distribution channels is why I am convinced that we are buying an excellent platform with great potential. I will shortly explain how we will unlock this potential by integrating Liberty into the Generali ecosystem. Let's look at the impact the acquisition will have on our market position in Spain, Portugal, and Ireland. Thanks to the addition of Liberty Seguros, we will jump to the number 4 position in property and casualty in Spain, up from number 6, and we are very close to becoming the third-largest player in the market.
Achieving such a big increase in market share through organic growth in a mature market like in Spain would take many years and significant investment. Therefore, Liberty Seguros was a unique strategic opportunity. In Portugal, the acquisition of Liberty will allow us to consolidate our position as number two in the market and reduce the gap with Fidelidade. The two biggest players in Portugal will have around 50% of the total property and casualty insurance business in the country. This acquisition also gives us a presence in the Irish property and casualty market. Our 7% market share represents almost EUR 200 million of gross written premium, split into 74% of motor insurance and 14% of home insurance. Over the past 3 years, Liberty followed a strategy in Ireland to improve profitability by exiting certain lines of business.
By refocusing its product offering, Liberty anticipated the hardening of the motor market and was the first player to increase tariffs during COVID. In light of the current market and pricing dynamics, Liberty is now expected to increase its market share as other players start to review and increase their tariffs. Let me now provide more detail on the strong complementary fit between Liberty and Generali on the distribution network side. In Spain, we are going to acquire a new channel in which we do not have a material presence today, the direct business. Liberty's strategy in this channel has been focused on price comparison websites, allowing the company to keep an attractive level of acquisition cost in a market dominated by two big-spending players, Mutua Madrileña and Línea Directa. Additionally, we will strengthen our Spanish tied agent channel by adding circa 600 tied agents from Liberty's network.
Finally, on the broker side, Liberty mostly partners with mid-sized brokers covering the main cities, while Generali Spain is historically focused on brokers that cover mostly the rural areas. In Portugal, we will consolidate our multi-tied agents network and acquire relevant and interesting new partnerships, like the one with Mercedes-Benz and ACP, the local car owners associations. Let's now look at the offer side, and let me focus on two key points here. First, the fact that Liberty is mostly focused on the motor business creates a significant opportunity for Generali to cross-sell its full range of solution and become lifetime partner also to Liberty's customer base. Let me add some color on this. Thanks to our modular offer, the number of customers in Spain with more than one Generali's product is now 1.6.
Considering Liberty's current range of products, we see a huge opportunity to apply this approach to Liberty's customer base and increase cross-selling. Second, Liberty's long-standing expertise in the motor business will also allow Generali to refine its pricing capabilities and go-to-market approach in Spain and Portugal. On the life side, which represents just 9% of total Liberty's gross written premiums, most of the Liberty's portfolio is in run-off, with exception of the protection business. We intend to invest in the life protection and develop this line of business in years to come. This represents an ideal area of focus to increase our share of customer wallet. Focusing now on the motor business. The Spanish insurance market has had a couple of difficult years in this area. The worsening of the 2023 current year loss ratio was driven by several factors.
First, rising claims frequency, reaching levels comparable to the pre-COVID times. Second, cost inflation, starting from the second half of 2022 and affecting claims cost. Finally, the time lag between the moment tariffs are increased and the moment this effect materialize into the profit and loss of the insurer. However, when we compare Generali's combined ratio with the Spanish market average, I would like to mention that we have outperformed consistently, thanks to Generali's focus on technical excellence. It is our intention to focus on this as a key area, where we can create value together with Liberty. I would also like to point out that the Spanish market has reacted with the highest tariff increases in over 20 years.
Therefore, the pressure of technical profitability is expected to be temporary, mostly due to the timing difference between the impact of tariff increases into the profitability and the immediate inflation impact on material damages claims affecting all in-force policies. With a harder market expected to continue for all 2024, the motor business should become again more attractive. Players like Generali can take advantage of combined economies of scale and complementary know-how to improve the overall profitability. Finally, if inflation continues to fall, the insurance market will certainly benefit in terms of technical profitability. To give you some context, Spanish inflation hit 8.3 in 2022, but fell to just over 3% as of December 2023. Let me now come back to the overall transaction and explain in more detail the key opportunities we have identified from the integration.
This is a complex page, but a very important, and let me give you some seconds to have a look at it. Well, I have already talked about Generali's and Liberty's complementary distribution capabilities. So let me say some words on the cross-market opportunities on digital marketing. Liberty operates in the direct channel with a relevant presence in Spain and Ireland, and we believe it has solid capabilities in this space we can leverage on, also for other channels. In fact, Liberty operates in these two markets with two very different strategies. In Spain, the focus is on price comparison websites and on lead management activities. The strategy is to drive customers towards the call center in order to facilitate upselling opportunities.
In Ireland, there is a greater focus on having very quick go-to-market pricing strategies and competing on the broker channels, which acts as the equivalent of comparison website in a market where aggregators do not exist. All of the above is enabled by two other key capabilities. The first being motor pricing sophistication and customer segmentation, that maintains a good balance between offering the best price and keeping the profitability of the contract. The second is the product modularity, which is especially important in Spain for price comparison websites, with a simple product that can be easily upsold afterwards through the call center. As I have mentioned, Liberty is highly complementary to our existing operations. Therefore, integration will be a key success factor for the transaction.
Our first priority, soon after closing, will be to start the disentanglement plan to remove the dependencies with Liberty Mutual as soon as we can, by starting to migrate service to Generali's platforms. In parallel, we will integrate Liberty Seguros within Generali's operating model in Spain and Portugal. We expect this phase to last from 12-14 months, on completion of the operating model integration. The speed of the full integration will accelerate significantly. Let me now conclude with some key messages. With this transaction, Generali is acquiring an excellent platform that will consolidate our presence and accelerate our growth in two key countries like Spain and Portugal. Moreover, we are entering a third profitable market.
Liberty Seguros' business is solid, and the company is also well-capitalized with excess capital that we estimate to be more than EUR 300 million, based on 2022 data. The employee base of Liberty Seguros is also extremely valuable, going beyond what we could estimate in the due diligence phase. I strongly believe that when we will combine Liberty with the skills we already have at Generali in Spain and Portugal, we will be able to unlock further potential from these combined businesses. In fact, Generali has solid capabilities in post-merger integrations, as shown by recent acquisitions in France, Italy, Malaysia, Greece, and Portugal. We also provide excellent opportunities to promote the talent of the acquired entities. For example, the current CEO in Generali Tranquilidade, our company in Portugal, comes from the acquired entity.
The current Group Chief Risk Officer of Generali is the former Generali Manager, General Manager of Cattolica, and the current Chief Investment Officer from, for Italy, is the former Chief Investment Officer of Cattolica. The integration of Liberty Seguros will strengthen our distribution, product offering, and client service capabilities, and we will share and adopt best practice on both sides. Last but not least, we will generate important efficiencies through economies of scale. In fact, we estimate that the pre-tax contribution to the bottom line from the integration of Liberty Seguros by end of 2029 will be above EUR 250 million. I look forward to keeping you updated on our integration process, and thank you very much for your attention, and now I will hand over to Carlo. Thank you very much.
Good afternoon. Good afternoon to everyone, and welcome. Thank you for joining us today. As you may remember, in April 2017, the Board of Assicurazioni Generali approved the first dedicated strategy for asset management. The strategy set out to create a global asset manager capable of generating better returns for the Group's balance sheet and of competing for third-party assets, with the aim to diversify the Group's revenue streams. Since 2017, we've been working very hard to implement this strategy and to develop our asset management ecosystems of affiliates. Today, I would like to explain why the acquisition of Conning is important to Generali and its asset management, and how it will contribute to strategic objectives. In our Lifetime Partner 24 strategic plan, we highlighted four fundamental pillars for the continued development of our asset management ambition.
We aim to widen our investment offering, to gain an international client base, to accelerate third-party growth, and to invest in distribution capabilities. For each of these pillars, Conning and its affiliates will add a significant contribution, ranging from the high-quality investment skills in U.S. and emerging market fixed income to alternative credit and U.S. real estate. All of these expand our existing range of capabilities, such as European fixed income, infrastructure, multi-asset, adding further quality to our platform and demonstrating the truly complementary fit of Conning and its affiliates. Conning also brings a wealth of long-standing client relationships in the U.S. and Asia, without any overlap with the third-party client base that Generali is developing in Europe. This complementary combination will contribute to the expansion of our reach with Generali Asset Management now joining the ranks of the ten largest asset managers in continental Europe.
We will not rest on our new market position. This is only the first step. We will continue investing in the development of our distribution capabilities, with the aim of strengthening our presence in high-potential markets. We have dedicated leadership of experienced managers with highly qualified profiles and international backgrounds, committed to accelerating the collaboration with Conning and the delivery of the asset management ambition. While Generali and Conning together leverage the combined resources, Conning and its affiliates will continue to be led by the current management leadership, ensuring stability and continuity of teams with client service levels and investment strategy. Our vision for asset management is very clear. Generali is building its business to join the ranks of the preeminent global asset management firms. We aim to be recognized for delivering exceptional investment returns while upholding the highest standard of professional conduct.
We will achieve this by building on Generali Group's substantial insurance reserves, and by bringing together the skills of our dynamic investment ecosystem. This will enable us to consistently compete in the industry and to cultivate enduring and trusted client relationship with third-party clients. Let's now have a more in-depth look at Conning. The alignment between Generali and Conning stems not just from a cultural perspective, given the strong insurance DNA in both businesses, but also from the model chosen by both organizations to operate in the asset management space. Similarly to Generali, Conning is organized as a multi-affiliate platform, owning majority stakes of the operating companies. The platform is made up of Conning, which was founded more than 100 years ago, a Connecticut-based insurance asset manager with income-oriented strategies, serving insurance and institutional investors globally with over EUR 100 billion in AUM.
Octagon, a highly reputed specialist asset manager focused on structured credit and below investment grade investment, with over EUR 30 billion AUM based in New York. Global Evolution, a EUR 9 billion emerging and frontier market debt specialist with offices across Europe, U.S., Asia, headquartered in Denmark. Pearlmark, based in Chicago, with origination-focused resources across U.S., is a recent acquisition of the platform, with capabilities in real estate, middle market debt, and equity. As already mentioned, in addition to U.S., to U.S. investment capability, Conning's multi-affiliate platform also brings a long-standing, stable U.S. and Asian client base, which it is very complementary to Generali's strong exposure to, competencies that are be building in Europe. Conning's multi-affiliate platform is not only the right fit for Generali, but it is also a very distinctive feature that are widely recognized and appreciated by insurance and other institutional clients.
Providing highly customized fixed income portfolio for client is the heart of Conning's investment proposition. This requires mastering a wide range of types of credit, from listed securities to below investment grade, to specialty and structured credit. Beyond the U.S., Conning has then developed very strong experiences on emerging and frontier markets. Naturally, in addition to achieving attractive investment returns, clients, of course, expect bespoke quality services. Conning has devoted its effort to excel in advisory, accounting, reporting, research, and risk management, supported by very strong technology and proprietary tools. As you can see on this slide, Conning and its affiliates have been recognized by the market for their commitment to excellent client service, with multiple awards received over the years. This also translates into an impressive client tenure of more than 10 years on average.
Following an internal reorganization aimed at simplifying and redesigning the structure of the asset management business line, Generali Investments Holding has become the company responsible for overseeing and coordinating the activities of all operating companies, excluding China. This new structure is reinforcing the asset management activities, allowing us to have a greater degree of steering and coordination... while still maintaining our relentless focus on governance and on the control functions. The new setup, including the pre-existing entities and the multi-affiliate platforms, continues to act in line with Generali Asset Management operational and risk framework, also properly supporting the autonomous approach to investment management. In line with our existing model, Conning will be included among the affiliates. Let me now come back to the benefits of our acquisition of Conning and its affiliates.
Thanks to the acquisition of Conning, Generali will become the tenth biggest asset manager in Europe by AUM, reaching roughly EUR 640 billion, based on figures as at September. Looking at the nine-month 2023 P&L data, Generali will increase its top line by circa 25%. Combined cost-income ratio will be at around 60%, but we would expect that further improvement can be achieved, thanks to the scale reached by the two platforms and the collaboration on specific initiatives that will start soon after the close. I already mentioned some of the key investment opportunities that Conning is bringing to Generali, but it's important to look more closely at how the two businesses will look together.
In line with our ambition to add complementary capabilities to Generali's multi-affiliate platform, Conning brings new competencies to the group, enhancing what Generali can offer to its clients. The combined platform will be able to draw on a much broader reach in the fixed income space, building the foundation to develop a solid global offering. The same applies to equity and real estate, where Generali's long-standing European capabilities will be combined with the Conning U.S. skills to create a more comprehensive offering. Generali will also be able to explore the alternative credit and emerging market debt offering the Conning platform is contributing. On the other hand, Conning clients will be able to access the strong infrastructure, debt, and equity competencies built by Generali's multi-affiliate platform. Now, I would like to go a little bit more in detail on how we will create value from the acquisition of Conning.
The combination of the two platform will not only add to the current Generali multi-affiliate proposition, it will also create opportunities for synergies. By bringing together experts from both sides and building our internal know-how, this combination will allow us to broaden our investment offering by extending expertise into additional products designed to fit the ongoing trends in demand from clients. Leveraging on Conning's capability will add the internalization of fees currently paid to external asset manager. More specifically, we have identified two key avenues through which this will happen. First of all, on the general account, where currently we have mandates allocated to external asset manager in asset classes that we have been able to cover, and that today, from now on, will be covered by the skill set of Conning, and the skill set that also their affiliates will bring to us.
Therefore, we will move swiftly to reassign those mandates to Conning and its affiliates, leading to immediate value recapture. Secondly, unit-linked. As you may remember, we had an internalization rate of 14% in unit-linked in 2016. This has risen to 40% at the end of 2023. In order to move further on this trajectory, we need to broaden the product offering we make available to our unit-linked product factories. Conning and its affiliates will increase this offering and will enable us to progress towards a higher unit-linked internalization rate. As you can see, the synergies are in our control in terms of execution, and they are made possible by the scalability of the multi-affiliate platform.
By joining forces, resulting in an expanded scale and broadened scope, we will be better positioned to win larger mandates from big insurers and other institutional clients and enhance the cross-selling opportunities. In summary, all the value creation levers from the acquisition are expected to generate pre-tax synergies ranging between EUR 70 million and EUR 80 million at year 5 post-closing, benefiting both the asset management business and Generali insurance companies. Let me provide some final remarks before handing over to Cristiano for the final presentation of the day. Since the launch of our asset management strategy in 2017, building scale was core to our ambition. But we always said that to do so, we needed to strengthen our competencies, too…
The acquisition of Conning is fully aligned with the strategic priorities, as we will be in a position to develop and maintain a diversified portfolio of investment capabilities across various asset classes and regions. Enter the United States, the key market in the asset management industry. This is an important step for our venture, and we are absolutely happy to do it with a solid and long-standing organization such as Conning. Develop a long-term partnership with Cathay Life, a highly reputed organization that will help us expand our presence in Asia. Foster a culture of continuous learning and development, ensuring our investment team stays at the forefront of industry trend and best practices. And last but not least, will we strengthen our international management team and attract new talent?
As you know, for example, we recently appointed Domenico Aiello, the former CFO of Amundi, as CFO for Generali Asset Management. To conclude, with the help of Conning and the existing affiliates, we are confident that we will reach a position of global leadership in the asset management industry, earning the recognition of clients, of peers, and industry expert as a top-tier asset manager. Thank you for your attention. I now hand over to Cristiano.
Thank you, Carlo, and a warm welcome to all of you. In my presentation, I would like to focus on four key topics. First of all, I would like to provide you with an update on where we stand on our key cash and capital targets for the Lifetime Partner 24 plan. Second, I will then show you where we are with our debt management strategy and our Solvency II sensitivities, including an update on our group risk appetite framework. Third, I will share some key messages on the Life CSM trends in 2023. Finally, as promised, in November, I will provide you with the 2024 undiscounted combined ratio guidance. Let me move to the next slide to confirm that we are on track to achieve and even exceed our targets on remittance, net holding cash flow, and capital generation.
Thanks to the healthy value generation of the underlying business and the disciplined implementation of cash and capital centralization, we expect that all three KPIs will exceed the targets of the Lifetime Partner 24 plan by more than 5%. Our group has a relentless focus on cash flow generation and on centralizing cash at the parent company level. Clearly, the capital generation has seen a strong contribution from Life, also thanks to higher interest rates. However, both the expected remittance and the net holding cash flow are also rising above the original targets for the plan. Let me remind you that remittance and net holding cash flow are represented on a cash basis, meaning that cash flows are reported under the year of payment. Therefore, as the capital generation ultimately will transform into cash flows, both then will be impacted positively in the future.
Remittance has been very solid in 2023, rising about 7% compared to 2022, which had already risen by the same percentage compared to 2021. It is very important to highlight that the EUR 3.6 billion remittance from operations was achieved, just like 2022, with a limited contribution from capital management actions. We expect to record higher capital management actions in 2024, mainly driven by the integration of Cattolica into the country perimeter for Italy, in line with the Lifetime Partner 24 plan, where capital management actions were indeed skewed towards the end of the plan. Having said so, coherently with the key principle of the centralization of cash and capital underlying the Generali Capital Management framework, we constantly target capital optimization initiatives across the group.
Therefore, I can anticipate that we expect to achieve even more effective cash and capital upstreaming in 2024. Let me also highlight that all geographies have seen a year-on-year increase or stability in remittance. Concerning Central and Eastern Europe, 2023 was impacted by the Hungarian windfall tax, and we expect the remittance from the region to continue to grow strongly in 2024. The increase in the remittance contribution reported under the other component is primarily thanks to remittance growth from the asset and wealth management perimeter. This reflects both the good 2022 performance and some non-recurring remittance from capital management actions distributed in 2023. All of this goes to show how the cash flow generation has happened across the group.
It proves the growing diversification of our sources of cash flows and the fact that a disciplined capital management framework is implemented throughout all of the group's operating entities. Let me move to capital deployment. In our Lifetime Partner 2024 strategy, we planned to allocate between EUR 5.2 billion and EUR 5.6 billion to dividends, between EUR 0.5 billion and EUR 0.7 billion to internal redeployment, and between EUR 2.5 billion and EUR 3 billion to external redeployment, including buybacks. This allocation plan was driven by the strategic objective to maximize long-term value creation for our shareholders. This is why we pursue the best possible mix between capital deployment and capital return based on the opportunities available, with buybacks being part of our capital management framework.
As you can see from the slide, we are on track to deliver on the Lifetime Partner 2024 dividend cumulative target, that, as you know, is a key financial target and priority. Let me remind you that the dividend per share has been growing steadily in line with the ratchet policy announced as part of the Lifetime Partner 2024 plan. After the final dividend payment next May, I expect the cumulative dividend target to be in the middle of the range. Regarding internal redeployment, we are also in line with the plan. This slide also provides you with a summary of the allocation of the discretionary available free cash flow. For us, M&A is a strategic lever to enhance earnings growth and diversification.
As you have seen through the years, we have consistently applied strict and disciplined criteria to address the strategic, financial, and cultural fit in our transactions. The cumulative amount of EUR 2.5 billion in acquisitions and disposals includes mainly Liberty Seguros net of excess capital repatriation, Cattolica minority buyback, step up in our Indian subsidiaries, step up to 100% of Generali P&C insurance business in China, and the disposal of Tua Assicurazioni. I would like to highlight that the excess capital repatriation of Liberty Seguros has not been included in the remittance and net holding cash flow expected achievement over the Lifetime Partner 2024 plan period. Let me highlight that we have spent around EUR 200 million on long-term incentive plan buybacks in 2023, and we expect to spend a similar amount in 2024.
The LTI buybacks were not part of the original Lifetime Partner 2024 plan and are a further confirmation of our strong focus on efficient cash and capital allocation. Finally, we have EUR 500 million available to fund another strategic buyback before the completion of the Lifetime Partner 2024 plan. This is possible thanks to the overachievement expected so far in terms of remittance and consequently, net holding cash flow, despite the around EUR 400 million to be absorbed by the LTI buybacks. This strategic buyback, as Philippe announced, is expected to be launched during 2024, subject to the relevant approvals, rather than waiting until the end of the plan, as previously indicated. This means implementing the buyback 12 months earlier than originally expected. Moving to debt management.
During the first two years of the Lifetime Partner 24 plan, we have been proactive in managing our external financial debt with three key priorities in mind. First, continuing to shape the debt maturity profile in a way that reduces refinancing risk in future years. As you can see, starting from 2028, the amount maturing or being callable never exceeds EUR 1 billion. This was achieved by proactively tackling upcoming maturities through a combination of early refinancing and liability management transactions. We also have one of the lowest leverage ratio in the sector under the new rating agencies methodologies, which partially or fully recognize the net CSM in the denominator. This allows us more flexibility in our refinancing strategy. Second, further optimize the cost of debt. P&L interest expenses at final year 2024 versus final year 2021 will be reduced by more than EUR 60 million.
This considers 2024 on a prospective run rate basis, adjusting for double cost of interest. We have achieved the debt interest expense reduction target we set for the Lifetime Partner 24 plan, despite the very significant increase in market rates. I remind you that debt inherited from Cattolica is not included in the figures, and that in December 2023, we reimbursed EUR 100 million of Cattolica's subordinated debt. Third, focusing on sustainability. Following our very recent senior bond transaction, the group has issued a total of eight bonds with ESG features. Green and sustainable bonds are expected to represent 40% of our total outstanding financial debt by the end of 2024. Moving to our regulatory solvency position, I think it is important to take stock of where we stand.
In the last few years, we have been working to reduce the volatility of our Solvency II ratio. The chart on the right shows you how much the sensitivities to lower interest rates and wider BTP spread have improved. This is the result of four key factors: increasing weight of capital-light products in life, increased diversification through P&C, unit-linked, and protection, lower weight of BTPs with a gradually shorter duration, even stronger discipline on asset and liability matching. Clearly, the increase in interest rates has been favorable to lower sensitivities, especially to yield curve down moves. The bottom line, however, is that when you look at our Solvency II ratio today, the focus is not only on its absolute level, but also on the fact that this level is now more stable.
The absolute Solvency II ratio is likely to move higher following the implementation of the Solvency II review. Moreover, we expect the lower sensitivities to remain, and this is very comfortable position for us to be in. As a result of the very positive developments in terms of capital generation, improved business mix, and diversification, gradual reduction in Solvency II sensitivities, and increased loss-absorbing capacity of our group, we have decided to refine our risk appetite framework and, in particular, our upper operating target range. In 2018, we set a risk appetite framework for the group to operate with a Solvency II ratio between 180% and 240%. We have decided to reduce the upper threshold, moving it from 240% to 230%.
Please consider that when looking at our Solvency II ratio, which as a reference was 224% at nine months 2023, we have yet to factor in the around seven percentage point reduction stemming from both acquisitions, in particular, Liberty Seguros, Conning, and the step up to 100% of Generali China P&C business, and disposals Tua Assicurazioni, Cattolica Vera JV, and Generali Deutschland Pensionsk asse. This refinement in the upper range allows more EPS accretive initiatives. As Philippe said, going forward, we will look for the most efficient balance between M&A and share buybacks, also on a yearly basis, in order to keep creating sustainable value for all our stakeholders. Let me now look back at one of the key lessons from 2023. The implementation of IFRS 17 and seven has profoundly changed the way insurance companies report their numbers.
I was positively surprised by the speed at which the financial community has become more and more proficient in the new accounting standards. In my view, the key outcome of 2023 has been the growing and shared awareness that the new the way the life results are reported has fundamentally improved with IFRS 17. Life was used to be seen as, less predictable, exposed to financial markets, prone to unexpected one-offs, and this has weighed on the valuation of life business for years. IFRS 17 significantly enhances the visibility and predictability of profit emergence in the life business, providing an accounting framework that is more closely aligned to the economic reality. This is a welcome development since it enables market participant to better appreciate both the in-force book and the contribution from the new production.
In this slide, we show the trend of the main items of the CSM movements over the last three quarters, their expected contribution to the 2023 normalized growth, and an indication of their level of predictability over the year. First of all, I would like to confirm that our expectation on normalized CSM growth is about 5%, comfortably above our guidance of 4%. This is thanks to the solid contribution of new business and expected return, boosted by the unwinding of discounting. Focusing on the single items of the CSM movement, we can consider the new business CSM as broadly linear, although it could be exposed to seasonality effects on volumes and similarly to the economic variances affected by market volatility. However, for both new business CSM and economic variances, good proxies could be obtained leveraging on sensitivities disclosed.
In this context, I also take the chance to remind that in March, with the final year 2023 results, we will also provide you with the updated sensitivities of the CSM and new business value. Regarding the expected return, this is a highly predictable item, expected to be linear over the quarters. Indeed, both its component, the unwinding and the systematic economic variances, depend on the beginning-of-year assumption that remain fixed over the reporting periods and led to very stable and foreseeable results. Operating variances include changes in operating assumptions and operating experience variances, as well as regulatory and model changes. This item can be given a lower level of predictability, especially in years affected by unexpected and unprecedented phenomena, for example, the spike in surrenders experience for selected business lines in Italy and France in 2023.
Finally, regarding CSM release, you can consider it broadly stable and predictable over the year. This is because its two components, i.e., the expected systematic economic variances and the yearly release via coverage units, are only marginally impacted by the economic and operating variances of the period and by business mix evolution. Let me now move to my last point before wrapping up. At nine months, 2023, in November, I promised to give you the undiscounted combined ratio guidance for 2024. I prefer to wait until today to provide this, to assess the impact of the reinsurance renewals and of the new law on mandatory Nat Cat cover for SMEs in Italy, which was, at the time, still under discussion. First, from the final year 2023 reporting, we will evolve our definition of undiscounted combined ratio.
The current year discounting will be shown separately, while prior year discounting will be part of overall prior year development in the reference period. This decision aligns our disclosure to industry practice. It also reflects the feedback and the inputs we received from market participants to make our disclosure even more effective. Prior year discounting is by definition volatile, unpredictable, but not material in terms of impact. As a reference, at nine-month 2023, prior year discounting benefited the reported combined ratio by around 20 basis points. We expect the undiscounted combined ratio in 2024 to be below 96%, using the same consolidation perimeter as for 2023. Said differently, this guidance does not yet factor in the combined ratio contribution of Liberty Seguros. This is because Liberty currently reports under IFRS 4.
Before including Liberty in the guidance, we need to see the full 2023 IFRS 17 numbers aligned to our group's methodologies, which we expect to have when we will report the first half 2024 results in August. At that point, we will also embed the consolidation of the Generali China P&C business. Please allow me to take you from the nine-month 2023 undiscounted combined ratio to the 2024 guidance. The nat cat load was 3.8% at nine-month 2023, after the exceptional hailstorms in Italy, which accounted for a large part of the nat cats recorded for the period. I expect the full year nat cat, net of reinsurance, to be around EUR 1.1 billion, implying a nat cat load for the year above 3.5% in 2023.
For 2024, the guidance embeds a nat cat impact of 2.7%, compared to an historical average of around 2.2% for 2019 to 2023 included. We are increasing the nat cat load to reflect both the 2023 experience, although we consider a significant part of this exceptional, and the outcome from the reinsurance renewals. We expect the tariff strengthening and technical measures implemented during 2022 and 2023, which are going to continue in 2024, to more than compensate the lower expected contribution from prior year development, and lead to an overall improvement in our undiscounted combined ratio, excluding nat cat, of around 70 basis points. Let me say something about the drivers embedded into this guidance.
As you know, we have always said that the benefits from tariff strengthening would emerge in the combined ratio and in the P&L with a 12-18 months lag. That is why 2024 is expected to show a significant improvement in the underlying current year combined ratio. Our confidence in this is-- in this improvement, is also reinforced by the data you have seen at the nine-month 2023. The numbers we released last November show that the third quarter, in isolation, current year undiscounted combined ratio, excluding nat cat, improved by 120 basis points compared to the third quarter 2022. While there are limitations when commenting on single quarters, let me just emphasize that this comparison reflects the most updated disclosure of the impact of technical actions.
In this case, the comparison was versus the third quarter 2022, when basically there were no pricing or technical action already benefiting the combined ratio. In addition to this trend, during 2024, I do expect the pricing and technical measures implemented in 2023 to continue to provide a positive impact to our combined ratio, primarily thanks to the 12-18 months lag I was already referring to. This is even before we see the positive impact of both the German renewals during this January, and more importantly, the significant hardening of personal line in Italy. This hardening reflects the industry reaction to the 2023 nat cat experience and the 2024 insurance renewals. As I stressed at the nine-month 2023 call, all our technical measures continue to ruthlessly target a further improvement in our current year undiscounted combined ratio.
Before concluding the presentation, let me summarize the key messages. The group is in strong shape, and we expect to exceed our cash and capital targets, thanks to healthy underlying performance. The work done over recent years in terms of de-risking the asset portfolio, transforming the life back book, rebalancing the business mix, and applying a stricter ALM discipline, has led to a sizable decrease in our Solvency II ratio sensitivities. Therefore, we have lowered the upper part of the operating targeting range in our risk appetite framework from 240% to 230%. Rather than waiting until the end of the plan, we will launch a EUR 500 million share buyback as soon as we receive all relevant approvals. This reflects our strong confidence in our cash and capital position, and means implementing the buyback 12 months earlier than originally targeted.
We are confident in our Life business, also thanks to the new accounting standards. Life becomes easier to predict, more stable, less exposed to one-offs, and more shielded from volatility from financial markets. Finally, on the P&C business, the undiscounted combined ratio is expected to stay below 96% in 2024, thanks to the expected benefits from the technical measures we have implemented in the past 18 months, that will continue in 2024. Let me thank you for your attention. We will now take a short break and start the Q&A session at 4:30 P.M.
For us, at Generali, being a lifetime partner means enabling people to shape a safer and more sustainable future by caring for their lives and dreams. Today, we champion sustainability as the originator of our strategy, acting as a responsible insurer, investor, employer, and corporate citizen. Thanks to insurance solutions with ESG components and green and sustainable investments, committing to the environment and climate protection, supporting small and medium-sized enterprises, promoting a diverse, equitable, and inclusive workplace for our people, supporting vulnerable people in our communities, and preserving heritage for future generations. Together, both as Generali and individuals, we can make this happen. Be a game changer. Bring sustainability to life in every decision and action you take, at any level, for a better future for everyone.
The moment before you take the first step, before you find your courage, before you know what happens next, there is one moment that lets us know. The time is now, and now it is time to think of tomorrow, to protect what we love. Now it is time to protect the future. Generali, in partnership with the United Nations Development Programme, is working to protect vulnerable communities around the world. The partnership will blend Generali's insurance expertise with UNDP's long-term focus on financing and development. Half of humanity is threatened by the consequences of climate change. Millions of people in the world lack access to financial protection, leaving them at risk of any disaster. Protect the future means ensuring that everyone has access to inclusive insurance for whatever hazards they face.
Generali and the Insurance and Risk Finance Facility, IRFF Initiative, led by UNDP, are aligned with the InsuResilience Vision 2025, which aims to protect 500 million people against the impact of climate change and disasters. Together, we will support vulnerable communities with accessible and affordable insurance and promote financial resilience for all. Protect the future is our way of making a difference. Now it is time to protect the future.
Good afternoon, and welcome back. We are now ready to open the Q&A session. As Jaime previously highlighted in his speech, on some of the topics regarding Liberty Seguros, we are bound by the confidentiality agreement signed with the seller, so apologies if we cannot answer all of the questions that you may have. We expect to have this Q&A lasting until 5:30 P.M., so I think we have one full hour of questions, and whenever you're ready, we can start. The first question, if it's okay, comes from James, here on the left.
Hi, good afternoon. I'm James Shuck from Citi. I have two questions from my side. Firstly, in terms of managing the solvency level to the 230, keen to understand the timeframe for doing that. If I think about your capital roll forward after dividend, you're still adding 15 points or so to that stock of solvency, but your cash remittances don't actually allow you to reset that down. So either you're kind of forecasting a or expect an increase in the free cash conversion of your earnings, or there's something else happening to help you manage down that central liquidity and hence solvency and how they all link together.
Second question was on just the P&C environment and the combined ratio outlook that you've given. Perhaps you could just elaborate a little bit about the pricing that you're seeing in Italy in January, sort of post the renewal season, new business and back book, and what the implications are there for margin earn through in Italy, please.
Thank you very much, James. So, Cristiano, the first question is for you, while Marco, if you want to comment on the second one.
Yes, James. So thanks. The 230 level is to be considered as a narrowing of the fluctuation that our solvency ratio could have had, both in its tangible and non-tangible, because it is a future profit element that we had in the past, due to the market risk factor and the structure of the asset and liabilities of the group. In this new environment, with all the job done, our sensitivity is down. What do we mean by this? We do mean that, for sure, you need to factor in the 7 points of reduction of solvency from the level that we had, only because of the M&A activity. Plus, it is fair to say that we are building up usually 19-20 points of capital generation before the dividend, okay? Part of them are non-tangible.
What I mean that, in any case, this is coming in the center through the remittances and the pattern of remittances, I think you can have a clear understanding of the trend we are having. The EPS accretion comes from the fact that we have more degrees of freedom to take a risk appetite or return the capital above that level, compared to the past, because of this reduced sensitivity. That was the meaning, and it is not necessarily only interlinked to the free cash flow. It is also interlinked to the possibility to re-manage the capital, the capital structure, I mean, equity, debt, whatever it is, plus the risk appetite framework, for example, on the product, on the investment. This is what we meant by this change.
So, I will take the second question on the Combined Ratio in Italy. So we are seeing a strong, a strong, price increase going on in the market. Clearly, this is due, as you know, to a couple of factors that I want to highlight. One, we still see inflation, not at a huge level. So you know that Italy. So when we do the assessment, especially at six months, and then you will see also in the end of the year. Italy has never been one of the countries with super high inflation. So there are other countries in Europe where you have high inflation. On the other side, last year was probably one of the worst years ever in terms of natural catastrophic events. So that is impacting a lot.
So especially, I would say both on motor and non-motor, we are seeing a strong price increase, even double-digit, if I can say, price increase. Now, in Italy, there is not a real renewal season, so the renewals are across all the years, so there is not one single month where you renew your policy. I would say we are seeing not only price increase, but I would say for ourselves, we are putting in place a large set of actions to increase the profitability of our portfolio. So we are actually doing pruning. We are reforming some of the business, not only on the pricing, but also on the different wording of the policy. So we are doing a lot of things, and the environment is conducive to this price increase.
We are seeing an environment where it's actually possible to increase prices.
Okay, great. Farooq?
Thank you very much. Farooq Hanif from JP Morgan. Three questions, please. Firstly, it sounds like you're being a little bit more balanced between M&A and capital return. You're just looking for accretion. But last time we talked, in your Lifetime 24 plan, there was really an ambition to build the asset management business. Are there any other areas of the business that you would really like to build? Is kind of question one, just to understand, you know, whether the shape of the group now is close to where you want it to be. Question two is just on the protection sales. What are you gonna do to get the agents to sell more riders or to sell more protection?
How easy is it to pull that lever, and where do you see that 40% going? So should we be modeling higher growth, you know, on the protection side in the new business sales? And, and the last question is, and you're probably gonna get several versions of this, but if we take your current, you know, less than 96% combined ratio guidance, can you give us a bridge between that and the 95 that you used to talk about, so that we can work out how much lower than 96 it might be? So how much is Nat Cat? How much is improvement in technical profitability, et cetera? Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you, Farooq. So, Marco, the second question is definitely for you, Cristiano, the third, and I'll let you both comment on the first question regarding the path forward in terms of where we want to grow. Marco?
So yeah, I would start with the second question, and then I give you my hint on the first one. So, I would say, as I explained in my presentation, the demand for the customer in, on protection is there. There are a number of factors. There is a broad number of elements that are bringing more customer to discuss protection riders, protection stand alone with our agents. So what we need to do is really to train our agents, that we are doing. Develop again, and update, and complete, and I would say redesign quarter by quarter our offering, because I think, needs change over time, and we need to be on top of this. So how difficult is that?
I think, the most important thing is being close to our distribution, giving them good tools, digital and, and also modular product that, where they can build a good value proposition. Nothing of what we sell, especially, embedded protection, is, in a way, something that the client don't see. So they-- the client needs to have a discussion with our agent. Everything is transparent. They need to know what they're buying, and so it's really important that we train our distribution, and we give the distribution this tool that we have. Then you can go, and I will comment on the first one.
Yeah. I start with the third, and then we answer together in the first. So the bridge, it is the way, Farooq, depending the way you want to look at, from where we are to where we land or from that ambition. I think from where we are to where we land, it is easier to understand because this is based on facts and the number you have.
So let's say, let's say that what has increased compared to the previous budget is basically this. I would say 30 basis points more of reinsurance of natural catastrophe, which is evenly split between expected natural catastrophes experience more and reinsurance impact related due to the renewals in the structure, in part of the cost, as Marco told you. So if you take this step, and then you understand that there is an over the cycle usually assumed 2% prior year development, you understand that the current year attritional and the attritional combined ratio has the large part of the development of this story. And this is quite important.
So the 70 bps are net of the effect of the reduction expected in prior year in the budget 2024, which is telling you how the actions on the technical measure are entered to bite into the improvement of attritional current year profitability, which is the major driver.
... So your first question, so we always said we are an insurance and asset management business, so we really care to build both of those businesses. Clearly, for the two of them, we have different appetite on different type of business. For example, insurance, we always said that we feel that Europe is clearly where we are more present, and if we can grow our business there. So I'm not talking about inorganically, even organically. I mean, growing organically, we need to deploy capital. So we have clearly the appetite of growing in Europe. In Europe, we think that we can deliver good value to our shareholder by making sure we have a business growth and also synergies whether when there is the case.
And so I would say, in insurance, we are probably geographically more, I would say, targeted in term of, growth, while in asset management, we have a global business, we care to grow, everywhere there is an opportunity. We are doing that, like, we are doing that, and the Conning acquisition is a proof of that. So I would say these are our two focus, asset management and insurance. We have different target, but clearly deploying capital on our core business that are these two businesses, is very important in the next, in the next few years.
If I can just add to complete the part on the capital redeployment, or how we will look at this in the context where we are interested, is related to the fact that, Europe, as Marco said, is a game of scale, and a game of geographical diversification for insurance. And so for that, as we always done, I think we need to look at our capacity in the future to create this value against the simply reinvesting in ourselves, which is the buyback approach. This is the more tension, but it is expected to go going forward, embedding, what is our expected growth in the company versus what any other further deployment, external expected growth can bring to the company.
This is the way you should look at going forward, with a level of diversification achieved so far with the perspective, and it is already embedded in the business. Perfect.
Peter, front line.
Thank you very much. Peter Eliot from Kepler Cheuvreux. Three from me. I'm afraid they're probably all for you, Cristiano. The first one, you hinted on the benefit from the Solvency II review. Just wondering if you can give us any more color on that. Quantification is probably a bit too optimistic, but maybe the reasons for that, very helpful. The second one, I think you were originally expecting to upstream EUR 500 million from Cattolica and La Médicale. It looks like from the numbers, you upstreamed EUR 123 million, so I'm thinking EUR 424 million. I'm just wondering if you can confirm that's sort of the way to think about it or if anything's changed there. Thank you.
And then the third one, as Farooq hinted, sorry to come back on the 96, but I think you're saying that we're not adjusting for scope in the 96. I don't know if you can comment on the impact of the new law, whether that's the remaining delta, but that'd be very helpful. Thank you.
Yeah. So, on the solvency part, I think you were asking about our level of diversification? Sorry,
You mentioned there'd be a - there were... You expected-
Ah, the benefit, the review.
Yeah.
The solvency review, we are expecting a positive benefit. Clearly, there are many steps to see the existing proposal to be finally reflected. There are some steps, second-level directive and specifications. In any case, this is positive. It could bring, I would say, high single digit up to low double-digit benefit as it is, but clearly, we need to wait the end of the process to see how it goes, okay? Which is consistent to what was the objective of the directive. The part of the upstream from Cattolica and La Médicale is confirmed. We are above EUR 400 million.
Clearly, this is going to be embedded in the 2024 number, and this is why I was telling you that the 2024 net holding cash flow and remittances and net holding cash flow are positively affected because you are taking the core guidance, the adjustment for scope, I think it is not match the Italian law, because so far the law has not been clarified, and so we are expecting eventually it to be implemented by the end of the 2024, so with a minor effect. It is on the adjustment for scope, the other element could be the Liberty part, which has not been embedded, okay?
For your reference, just as a sensitivity analysis, every 5 percentage point difference compared to the target guidance would bring 20 basis point up or down deviation on the group. This is the impact.
Thank you.
Perfect. William, here, second row.
Hi, thank you very much. William Hawkins from KBW. Thank you for all the operational insight. I'm sorry I've got three numbers questions, though. On Liberty Seguros, can you talk a bit more about the glide path to the EUR 250 million in 2029? And maybe kind of give us a pause about where you think you could be in 2027 or something like that, please? Secondly, you talked about the debt restructuring. I'm just thinking at a high level, given how the yield environment has moved, how do you think about leverage from here? Are we status quo? Could you be taking leverage up because it's low, or are we in an environment where leverage should still be coming down?
And then lastly, please, given the review you did of the solvency range, what were your considerations about the low end, and why did you not change the 180%? Again, just for one point, you might think if yields are higher, you could get away with a lower figure.
Perfect.
So, Cristiano, the second and the third question are clearly for you, while the first one afterwards are for Jaime.
May I start?
Yeah, sure.
So, we have decided to share the EUR 250 million. We are very confident to improve this EUR 250 million for 2029. Because, for 2029, we will be able, or we think that we will be able, practically, to achieve all the synergies. We can consider that practically in 2027, we will be able to achieve 75% of the synergies. So for 2029, practically, we will be able to invest all the CTAs to merge both Portugal and Spain, and to deliver 100% or practically 100% of the business plan. So it's a complete year.
But, to answer specifically your question, you can consider that for 2027, we will be able to achieve, practically 75% of the synergies. So the EUR 250 has been created by the technical result improvement, plus the synergies. Okay? 2027, 75, 75% of the synergies. 2029, practically 97-95%.
Okay, William, going on the leverage. I always distinguish between leverage level and leverage ratio, okay? Because clearly the two things are not the same. In the speech I had, I think you noticed I was talking about refinancing, you know? So we this is a good hint of why we are happy with our level of leverage, notwithstanding the potential improvement, and even more in an uncertain rate environment, this could create value. And we do not only compare on the Restricted T1 , but also on the tangible book. So we look at all dimension, including the rating ones to take a stance, notwithstanding the level measured and compared on the solvency leverage.
On the review solvency range, why not changing the low end? The low end, first of all, was already comfortable in 2018, November, when we presented the 2019-2021 plan, because with a higher level of volatility, we were keen to keep that level, to protect on the risk. There is no sense to move it upward or downward, because moving it upward would have created a further constraint in the ability to execute the plan, and we are a better company, so why to restrict it? Going down would have created a further stress on the potential risk, which doesn't make any sense. So the level on the downward side has not been changed, simply because it is allowing us to guarantee the execution of the plan, and we want to stay within that execution range.
This is why, we want to maintain this flexibility. On the contrary, the upper range was more focused on EPS accretion initiatives.
Perfect. Thank you. Michael? Wait. Go on.
I really enjoyed the presentation. Thank you very much. I had three topics. I'm not sure it's just three questions. So one is the sensitivities, the second is the combined ratio, and the third is the geographic split, which I suppose relates also to your M&A ambition. On the sensitivities, I noticed we still only have the 2022 figures, and you said they were reduced, so I just wondered if you could give us a feel for where they, where we are now. And also on the topic of solvency, I just wonder if you can give us a feel. I always hope to hear from companies that they've reduced the capital allocated to asset risk versus underwriting risk, 'cause investors quite like underwriting risk. They don't pay that well.
That's my view. So I just wonder if you can give us a feel for that. On the combined ratio, there are two questions. One, which was hinted by Fabio, who's a fantastic IR, and the other one, which is mine, which is not so good. But his question was, or his - my interpretation is, 2025, can you give us a feel for where we'll be there? And you can say old perimeter, new perimeter, whatever you think is feasible. And then on the combined ratio, I noticed a discrepancy, but maybe that's my interpretation between two figures.
You said, Q3 on Q3, the improvement in 1.1%, and then in the slide, you show 0.7, and I'm just thinking, "Ooh, we just worsened by 40 basis points," but that's probably me. And then on the geographic, and that really relates to your M&A ambition, or my interpretation, can you give us a feel for where we are, Italy versus the rest of the world at the moment? Whether it's in terms of premiums or I don't know how you look at it, and where the desired level might be at some stage in the future. Thank you very much.
Perfect. So thank you very much, Michael. Regarding the sensitivities, why you have not been updated, and also Cristiano, the balance between investment and underwriting risk, the question is clearly for you. Regarding combined ratio, possible indication of 2025, but also the comparison, third quarter 2023, third quarter 2022 compared to the slide where we were showing the nine months 2023 versus the projection 2024. And then, Marco, if you want to comment on the geographical split, the role of Italy, and how that will, will change potentially down the road.
Yes, good, good afternoon, Michael. So on the sensitivities, I think, if you just look at the slide, you, you have seen the journey, you know. The sensitivity we wanted to show on the BTP, including the updated, last level of, of the 9 months 2023, we were showing a reduction of, of the sensitivity, having BTP at around 6% in the 9 months 2023, without the, the trigger of, the, the so-called country-specific VA, which is a quite important, feature, which changed in the year-end 2022, the reported one, because it was 5%, but I always told you it would have been 7% without the triggering. We were really on the edge.
So, those sensitivities, together with the reduction of the interest rate sensitivity, because the interest rate down in nine months was two percentage points, as you've seen, is bringing us to a much lower funnel of movement with basically the same level of the other risky asset class, which didn't change too much because of the normal unmatched nature of a risky asset versus a cash flow of liabilities, no? So, having said that, this is for the sensitivity.
On the capital allocated for the investment risk has been progressively reduced, and we are expecting this also to get lower as long as we are integrating going forward the new entities, knowing also that we disposed the joint venture of Cattolica on Banco BPM and the pension fund part. So if I go on the second on the outlook 2025, clearly you are scratching the surface to get in projection further.
I would tell you that all the actions, including the so-called time lag, 12, 18 months from inflation coming to full benefit in the balance sheet, will further reflect onwards also in 2025, allowing us to further increase, or I would say, to further go towards the 95% journey, I was saying. On the 9, I think quarter-over-quarter core explanation versus slide, I think what you had was a 9 months 2023 versus a full year 2024. That's why also the impact of the natural catastrophes is enhanced by the fact that that amount was having in 9 months versus a full year view, which is the perspective of 2024. So beware also on that.
Then I was just comparing the attritional component of the Combined Ratio, which I think on a standalone basis, we did not fully, we commented orally, but I think there was not the publication of the third quarter 2022 versus the third quarter 2023 in isolation, where the aim was to tell you that 2022, third quarter in isolation, attritional, without Nat Cat, was improving basically by 120 basis points. Because of the fact that here you start seeing from a zero basis, let's say a few months of impact of increase, which is very small, versus a higher view of the increase in 2023, third quarter. On a third quarter, you were starting seeing this, to give you the momentum and how this momentum is helping you to project in 2025.
So on my side, just to give you a sense. So we are like Italy on total premium is around 35, 35%, so that is the range 36, 35, depending on how you measure it. So basically, one, it's one third, so one third of the premium is coming from Italy. But so let me clarify that we don't have a specific objective of saying we are less or of Italy. Like, the reality is a good market. We're making like, it's profitable market. We are happy with the share we have. Clearly, we do think that where there are opportunity, we like to diversify. We like to take more share of international business, because clearly, we do have good operation across Europe, even in some country in Asia, even in some country in Latin America.
So, if we can become bigger in the countries where we are, and generate more synergies and put at work more of these, you know, infrastructure that we have in the country, we feel that we are doing the right thing for our shareholders. So, we don't have a specific target of less Italy or... Like, it's really, so Liberty Seguros with Spain, Portugal, and even Ireland, that we feel is a consistent environment with what we have in Europe, it was a good chance, and so we took it. So I think that's the logic that we follow. So where we need to increase our presence and where we are, as we always say, where we are number 10, we want to be number five. Where we are number five, we want to be number three.
If we are number three, we want to be number one. And if we are number one, we want to grow more and more. So that's the logic.
Perfect. Ashik?
Thank you, Fabio. This is Ashik Musaddi from Morgan Stanley. Just a couple of questions. One, thanks, Cristiano, for giving this clarity on capital allocation going forward, where you mentioned that M&A and buyback will be decided on an annual basis, rather than at the end of the period. So how do you see your M&A flexibility? I mean, would you stick to EUR 1 billion number a year? Because clearly your gross, your net cash remittance, I think, is at about EUR 3 billion and dividend is EUR 2 billion, or you still see a lot of flexibility. All I'm trying to understand is what could still be the size of M&A in a given year, given that you have changed this capital allocation policy. And second is, related to Michael's question and going a bit into specific into Spain.
I mean, you have done Liberty Seguros, which is now taking you to what numbers? 6% market share in Spain, and then with Tranquilidade and Liberty Seguros, you are reasonably good size in Portugal as well. So would you keep looking to consolidate in this market and try to become bigger, or you think, at least for the time being, you're done with Spain and Portugal? Thank you.
Thank you, Ashik. Cristiano, the first for you, and I'm, of course, the second is for you.
Thank you, Ashik. So, capital allocation, what do we want to mean about this? I think we, from all the answer you are getting, we are, we have reached a level of diversification which is balanced from the point of view of the strategic objective. This is putting more analysis on one against the other. When you like to project how is the yearly budget, clearly it is depending on the free cash flow generated, and you know that there are erratic pattern when there are capital management actions, so clearly it is not on a run rate basis.
What is important for you also to be aware, it's also clearly also depending on, if there is an M&A, if there is a target, in a pipeline, if there is an or if there is not, clearly, no? Because also scarcity is another factor. What is important, in my opinion, is that our policy always focused on policyholder remuneration. Having said that, dividend was one of our key targets. So when assessing the amount of the free cash flow generation and the available free cash flow after dividend, you also need to assess what we want to do on the dividend as a policy, which is a high priority for us. So this is the way you should look at it.
Hello, Ashik, thank you for your question. I will try to explain to my colleagues my dream about Spain and Portugal. So for several years, we have generally tried to grow in Spain and also in Portugal. And with Tranquilidade in 2020, we achieved a fantastic deal. And we also achieved a very good business plan, and now I can say and I can share with you that we are absolutely 100% delivered the business plan that we prepared in 2019, when we did the operation in Portugal. And in Portugal, we have 22% market share.
Coming back to Spain, currently, we are 4% market share, and we always have considered this is too low, and with the idea to grow as much as possible in the Spanish market, because both markets, and Spain, of course, is a healthy market, is a very good market, is a very, very active market. Liberty Seguros has been a fantastic opportunity for us to enter in Ireland, and to grow in Portugal and in Spain, and to achieve 6% in property and casualty in Spain and 22% in Portugal. Future operations, this is my dream. Well, it all depend.
I would like very much to grow in Spain and to be the leader company, but who knows what is going to happen? We see the market, we look the market, and if something is there, I will try to convince everybody.
Thank you. Gianluca
Thank you very much, Gianluca Ferrari, Mediobanca. On pure protection, basically, you showed a close to 10% CAGR, with very limited, actually, top-line growth. So how much was this interest rate driven? And linked to that, if you are entering in a, to say the least, moderate growth for not even a recession, and also with lower interest rates, do you still believe, NBV of pure protection can grow high single digit? The second is on, Conning, and in particular, on the fact that you use the equity of Generali Investments to finance their deal, was not obvious at all, at least, to me. Would you consider again, M&A deals using the paper of Generali Investments? And eventually, would you consider, giving away the majority of Generali Investments? Thank you.
So thank you, Gianluca. The first question, of course, Marco, is for you, and maybe Carlo, if you want to start with the second question on the possible M&A with Pearlmark, it's-
For sure. First of all, thank you for the question. Clearly, listening to what the holder of the wallet has just told us, the opportunity for M&A will of course be looked at, because we always look at the market. But it's also important to understand that we look at the market with a strong discipline factor. We have been very disciplined in moving forward in this respect.
The as you say, it has been a surprise. Not really. I think we wanted to do something, we wanted badly Conning, because we thought that it was the right fit for us, and we were supported by the group in giving up a small share of GIH, so Generali Investments Holding. Will we consider this for the future? Why not? But there is one element that it's important that we all take away, is that the group, Generali, wants to be a majority shareholder.
So thank you. So I'll take the protection topic. So first, maybe I like to reset. So 5.7%, as we showed, is not really limited for that type of line of business, and it's very much impacted. So if you take the CAGR of 18-20, it would show a completely different number. So the reality is that 2022 is really impacted by interest rate. The growth of this business line, I think, is gonna be sustained in the next year. So how much the environment will change this going forward?
So if you take a perspective, we started in 2018, where there was a very low interest rate environment, where the growth was not that much, and we were able to show to our client how important was to protect themselves before even thinking about investing. So first be protected, then invest, because once you're protected, you are free to deploy your money wherever you want. So it's very important, the value proposition that we are giving. And I think this will stay. Clearly, it depends how severe is the recession, and it depends from many factors.
But I would say there is such a strong demand in the market, and the proposition is so compelling that I think the growth will stay for the next years, even in different economic environment, let's say, an interest rate environment, and so on and so forth.
Perfect. Thank you. Ian?
Hi, Iain Pearce from BNP Paribas Exane. Just on the protection business, I was wondering if you could give a bit more color on the different trends that you're seeing by regions. Is it... A lot of the presentation focused on Italy. If you could just give a bit more color on, on what's going on in some of the other regions and the demand you're seeing there. If you could also provide a bit more detail on any changes that you've had in the reinsurance structures that you, you renewed at 1-1, that would be really, really useful as well.
Marco, these are both for you.
Yeah. So start with the protection. So I think the trend that I've shown, it's really across different regions, so I've given an example in Italy. Clearly, there we had so again, taking a perspective, Italy was not a protection market a few years ago, and we took the lead to create part of this protection market. So the market share that you see, over 50%, I think clearly testify that, you know, we have done a lot in bringing to the client these type of coverages. I would say, so there was a chart where we were showing, and I'm sorry, I cannot repeat all the number of the product in the correct way, the Czech Republic product, the Poland product, the German product.
So, it was like, just to show that there, there is clearly an overall movement in the difference. So maybe a long-term care market is more developed in Italy and little bit less in Germany, something in France. Other type of protection are more developed in France, other type of protection are more developed in, for example, in Czech Republic. So I think every market has its own type of dynamics. For example, Eastern Europe countries has always been protection market for, for, not for ourselves, like as an industry. So I think it's not it... I was not talking about Italy, I was really talking about, a different level of, development, across, across the group. So, second question on, on, I think, reinsurance.
This is actually an interesting question, and it's, like, this renewal season clearly has been more predictable in terms of development compared to last year. Last year has been even tougher. So I think broadly, we have confirmed our structure of reinsurance, so with a few changes. So clearly, capacity was there, I would say, except maybe for the aggregate CAT that was really difficult, there was a difficult renewal. So on the CAT program, we increased our retention from EUR 200 million to EUR 300 million. On the per risk, we added an aggregated, I would say, retention of EUR 20 million, and we broadly confirmed our CAT aggregate. So on our attachment point, EUR 800 million, so we confirmed that.
We have probably a different trigger point with a deductible at EUR 25 million. And, and I would say in line with last year, we placed 60% of this CAT aggregate. So that, that is the, I would say, the structure of the reinsurance, it's broadly confirmed. These changes are also reflecting the fact that we increase our portfolio. So this growth of the P&C portfolio is also, also bringing to us more capacity to absorb some risk, and so we are also increasing some attachment point, as we said in the CAT program. So that's it.
Perfect. Okay. Alberto, please.
Alberto Villa, Intermonte. Thanks for taking my questions. I have a question on the development of life inflows, lapses in the recent months, if you are still having some issues in any markets, especially in Italy, I guess, on the bank assurance. We have the Italian government still chasing for savers' money, and we'll launch a new BTP at the end of February. So I was wondering if you expect to still have this kind of headwinds playing out for inflows in 2024? And same on life, if you expect to keep the offering of lower charges for 2024 on some products, lower insurance charges to stimulate the sale of these products.
The second one is on Liberty. You start from 101% combined ratio. I wanted to understand what is the ambition in terms of combined ratio going forward, as for Liberty Seguros as it is, and eventually with the synergies, if you believe the business will align with the profitability you have for Generali in Spain and the other markets where Liberty Seguros operates. The other one is on the asset management. I was wondering, being that Conning has a lot of mandates with other insurance companies, if there is any risk of being perceived as less independent, being part of a bigger insurance group, will create any issue in getting new mandates or keeping the mandates you have? That's it.
Thank you.
Thank you very much, Alberto. The first and the second question are for Marco, the last one for Carlo, and the third one, to the extent of what we can comment, given the limitations I described at the beginning, for Jaime.
Yeah, so I start, and so clearly, there was a big topic, probably last year, at the beginning of the year, the type of lapses for the industry. So I don't want to go back and recap the situation, but just a few points I think are important. So we have seen lapses on our portfolio in a couple of specific situation on, as Philippe, I think, stated at the beginning of the meeting, on the bancassurance channel, on the more affluent client, where we don't sell hybrid products, so where there is only, like, segregated fund.
So again, I want to remind you that where we have all of these conditions, so we sell to mass market, where we have a bundled product and in a way where the channel is agent that is responsible of explaining a broader value proposition to the clients, we didn't see that much lapses. So our situation was in a couple of really, really a couple of portfolios. As you have seen, maybe by some public data, for example, in Italy situation, I wouldn't say it's now normal, but is normalizing. So if you look at the spread between our segregated fund and the five-year BTP return, I think are now more in line. And so I think the difference, even if you are looking for yield, it's not super, super high, right?
So, going forward, I do expect the situation is going to be more normalized. Again, on the charges, I think, you mean, the discount we are making on insurance policy to get my client to stay as a retention offer or this kind of thing. So it depends what we see in terms of environment. We are very flexible, so if we go back to a normal situation, we will go back to a normal, like to the previous type of structure. If we feel we can get more and the return are still positive, even incentivizing this way, the inflow, we will do it.
We will see, you know, the economic environment in the different market, where mainly you are referring to Italy. Also France had some lapses, and so this is broadly the situation. Then, I think in the next six months, we will see a normalization, a more normalization of the situation.
Alberto, thank you very much for the question. The short answer of this is that the clients have reacted positively to the announcement of the acquisition back in July and in the course of this month, up to now. So we do not expect anything from the client base. The long answer is also highlighting a very important point. Generali never enters into investment decisions when we manage money for third-party clients, and this is a fundamental element that divide what we do for our own portfolios and what the managers do for the clients' portfolios. So this is a very important element. I think that the U.S. clients base of Conning has understood that very clearly.
Jaime?
Regarding the combined ratio you mentioned, the 101, this is a market figure. This is not Liberty, or is not Spain, it's market. And specifically answering your question, our expectation, of course, is to achieve a fantastic combined ratio, a very good combined ratio in the future, all together between Generali Spain and Liberty Spain, and Generali Portugal and Liberty Portugal. But let me give you some color on that. I mentioned in the speech that Ireland started to increase the tariff during the COVID time. Then I said that Ireland is a very healthy market with a very good result. As you can understand, I cannot disclose too much information about Liberty, but I can make some reflections.
The first reflection is, and I think that I included it in the also in the speech, Generali Spain achieved a 7.3% increase in the average premium, in the average premium, increasing the tariff since the second half of 2023. So a huge tariff increase that reflect in the average premium the whole year, 7.3. This is a huge. Second, it is absolutely true that the frequency increased. I comment in the speech more or less at the level of the pre-COVID time. And it's also true that the average claim increased due to the change on the Baremo that happened at the half of the year. So why Generali Spain has been able to transfer this tariff increase to the average premium?
Because we have a very solid, a very, a very good agent network, able to transfer the measures and the tariff increase of the company to the customers and to the policies. This is very important, and this is going to follow during 2024, 2025, and whatever, because it's one of the strength of Generali Spain. Second point, as I mentioned, Liberty Seguros is a very, very, very good company managing the customer segmentation, and it's a very good company managing the time to the market, with the tariff, the credit scoring, and the selection. So our plan is to come all together with all this capacity that both companies will have very soon.
With the model capacity that Liberty has, with the capacity of Generali Spain to manage the interaction with the customers across the customers. So it's not. It's going to be easy? No, because the market is very difficult. But I am very confident that we will be able to achieve, as always has done, Generali Spain, a very good result, outperforming the market.
Thank you. Michael?
I have three questions. One is on dividend, the other one is on the cash from Germany, maybe, and the other one is on pricing. On the dividend, you mentioned, I think that you were we would land at the middle of the target range. I think that means EUR 5.4 billion. And I just wondered, I was trying to do the math, and I got completely confused, but my math, it kind of implies there's a drop, but I probably got it completely wrong. But I just wonder whether you can give a little bit more color to what it might mean in terms of dividend per share, given you've got the EUR 500 million buyback and things.
And on the cash, I did look at the 2022, obviously 2023 is not available, solvency reports that you published very nicely on your website. And some of the units in Germany have huge, I mean, they're unbelievably high, like 300%-400%. Could you say, well, is that part of the cash upstream that you mentioned, the EUR 400 million, or would this be potentially on top for 2024? And then maybe since you've been so kind, Marcus, to give us the pricing, a little bit of the pricing on Italy and Jaime has given us a little bit on Spain, can you give us a bit more of an update for Germany in particular? Thank you.
Cristiano, I think, all three are for you.
Okay. The... Michael, thanks for on the dividend. Thanks for trying. Let's say, I think the math brings you correctly, as I stated in the speech, in the middle of the range. This implies, and you can make the math, the growth of remittance and the growth of the equivalent dividend per share, which we usually do not comment before declaring it. But, we are giving you all the elements to make this kind of estimation. We told you that it is one of our priorities. So, what I can tell you, there is no drop in your calculation, and it is exactly in line from what we have done so far, continuing.
For what regards the cash from Germany, for sure, you are seeing some companies with very healthy solvency ratios, also live companies. You have to remember that in Germany, there is a specific characteristic of the solvency ratio regime, which is allowing for the so-called going concern reserve, and the treatment also of the surplus fund, which is the way you can consider it in an adverse scenario against your solvency. It is not immediately a distributable element, especially the going concern being an intangible element. So what we have done so far is, in Germany, it being one of our very important market for the cash flow remittance, because I always say that the price of 1 euro extracted in Germany, and the low cost of equity country is different from our countries.
So we are extracting, according to the capital management framework, the cash which is generated, clearly not touching the non-cash elements. So we are always working in this direction, and Germany is bringing that part. So on the third part of
On the third question, Cristiano, is on the German renewals. So,
I might, if you want, I take the question.
Yeah, sure.
So basically, we have talked correctly, you said we have talked about Italy, we have talked about Spain, so there are probably a couple of other countries, France and Germany, so let's discuss both of them, and so we like the big country for us. So Germany, I would say, I believe for the market, but in particular, like also for Generali, a market where inflation has been very high, and so we still have to catch up with pricing. So even in January this year, where there is a renewal season, we went for a high level of price increase, so over 10%. So, I would say mid double digits, so meaning between 10% and even 15% in some cases.
So we're gonna. We have increased the prices, and we will continue to do that for the renewal February on, probably increasing even more going forward, prices. So that's the situation. So Germany was actually the portfolio where we needed more injection, tariff injection. I would say France, we had a medium level of inflation. Consider that when we look at price increase, we don't look at inflation per se. We look at risk premium, so also combined with frequency that we've seen, that is depending also from the portfolio pruning that we have done, and in particular, in France, we have done some of that. So we are again catching up with the normal level of inflation.
This is an environment, I would say, for the core Europe, where except where we had a gap, like in Germany, for the rest, we will keep on updating our tariff depending on how our, our risk premium is evolving, so depending on the data that we have on inflation. Remember that claims inflation is lagging a little bit what you see in the consumer CPI index, let's call it this way, on the consumer price increase. So we will do that. And so also in France, we are doing that type of adjustment to the tariff. And so in Italy, you had a great injection because of the Nat Cat, so a lot of people repricing, especially for the non-motor situation, where you had also the new law jumping in, so there is a lot of repricing going on.
Spain, France, and other parts of Europe, ongoing with inflation. Germany, covering the gap that we have. I think it's... So you have an overview.
Thank you. For Farquhar at the end.
Hi there, Farquhar for Autonomous Research. Just three questions, if I may. Firstly, on the pure protection, slide 14, that you had there. I just wondered if you might have the IRRs and payback periods attached to that scope, and maybe add a bit of a color around how that may have developed recently. And then secondly, on the asset management side of things, slide 34, I just wondered if you were able to give a very rough sense of the split between revenue and costs within the kind of EUR 70-80 million synergy figure at all, and maybe a sense of the phasing to come through from that. And then finally, just on slide 40, on the sensitivities, one difficulty interpreting that slide is obviously the rate environment's changed quite materially over the years.
I just wondered if we, if we got a lower rate environment, more like 2020, 2019, what, what that sensitivity might be, just to get a sense of how much you've moved things structurally there, because you obviously gave some indications that you've, that's what you've done. Thanks.
So the first question is for Marco, the second question, of course, for Carlo, and the third one for Cristiano.
So, I would say. So overall, like, we are not disclosing IRR numbers for this figure, but like, let's see, if I can give you some color on that. So these are products with super high profitability, like super high profitability. So clearly, all the other measure are really good. So are good number of IRR and overall, the return on capital for this product are really good. So overall, clearly, the more we can increase our share. So there was a part of the discussion where I tried to convey the message that if we can grow this type of line of business more than there is a normal growth for inflation of risk for other type of business, we are adding profitability to the portfolio.
We are giving a benefit in terms of share between highly profitable and low profitable business to the high profitable business. So that's it.
So thank you for the question. So first, let's always useful remind that we have announced EUR 70 million-EUR 80 million synergies pre-tax, so it's important to keep that in mind. I think it would also be useful to group what we believe could be the generator of synergies. So the first one is that we believe that we can generate additional return by bringing on board Conning and having them contribute to have a better investment skills into the management of the general account assets. The second one is that we do believe that there are significantly cross-selling opportunities by using both client base and giving them new opportunities to invest money that is going to be combined with the capabilities that we already have in our multi-affiliate platform and with the addition of Conning.
The third one is that clearly we are gonna have a broader investment offering. This will facilitate the possibility now to compete with other clients and pitches that before we were not really able to take on.
Last but not least important, is the fact that with Conning arriving to the group, the group is going to support Conning in pitching to clients that have a broader dimension, and we'll look at the dimension of Conning and Generali into the multi-affiliate as an enabling factor. Of course, in order to do this, we will have to support cost. We will have to bring some resources on the table. We have envisaged some enablement cost at the very beginning, especially in terms of tools and operations. We want to invest even more in systems. Compensation costs have been accounted for, and clearly when it comes also for additional FTEs. So this is pretty much what we have already encompassed in our projections for the revenues, synergies, and cost synergies.
Yeah. Regarding the third question on sensitivities, I think, we need to remember what I was telling you before in the speech first. So compared to those days, it was 2019 or 2020 levels, more than three years after, the group had a material change in its sensitivities. One, first of all, because of the higher discipline in AA asset liability matching, which was reducing it, then the more and more important weight of either at-maturity product or no-guarantee product, where we guarantee only the death only, and the increased diversification through the weight of unit-linked and protection, that, for example, Marco was describing on protection before.
All these put inside, higher weight also of P&C and higher contribution asset management, we did more than the level of 2019. We did a kind of stress test similar to the one did in 2020, and we observed at that stress test, we had basically a reduction of 30% of the decrease, you know? So if the decrease was, I don't know, a number 10, we would end up at a kind of seven like movement in this new reshaped company as it is today. So there is a reduction of our sensitivities also in those scenario, and don't forget that this is also positive.
At that level of interest rate, that was a company because of unit- linked, because of everything, was collecting EUR 12 billion of net inflows, which was increasing the speed of transformation also the liability. This is the very important thing, which is embedded in what we said today
Perfect. I think we have time for one last question. Will, you had your hand raised before.
Thank you. Will Hardcastle, UBS. Really, it's around the reinsurance. I didn't quite follow all of those numbers that you were talking there. It sounded a little bit, and correct me if I'm wrong, protection is maybe reduced a little bit year on year. Overall, you can correct me, as I said, but effectively, is that saying that 96% or so, better than 96, is coming with a little bit more volatility year on year? Is that a fair assumption? And then just thinking about Italy- specific, you know, a lot of your competitors are more concentrated to Italy, and Italy reinsurance was probably a bit of a harder renewal than some other regions this year. I guess, could that create a market share opportunity for you?
Is that where we're at in this cycle for yourselves at the moment, and are you willing to take advantage of that, or you're happy with current levels? Thanks.
Thank you. Marco, [diara], both for you, of course.
So, there is slightly a little bit more of volatility, like, that is being highlighted into also the expectation of combined ratio, but I would say it's not huge. So that is it's a few basis points, really. It's nothing, like, it's nothing big. I would say renewal, it's a couple of year renewals are difficult on the reinsurance market. Probably this year, less than the last year, honestly, so. And, given the size that, you know, we have increased our portfolio year-on-year in the last four or five years a lot, so also this is helping to, in this phase, to get, you know, a little bit of more stability to even reducing a little bit coverage on reinsurance.
Now, on Italy, clearly, Italy has been hit by, I would say, super high level. If you look at the series of nat cat events in Italy, it's this is really, The one that we had last year in Italy is really a particularly bad year. Combine that with the new law of mandatory coverage for enterprises. Now, it's still unfolding, so it's difficult to say exactly, you know, the where, when... I think the objective is clear, it's when that it's more still to be clarified.
Overall, I do think, as you say, that there is an opportunity to increase our overall premium, to make sure our clients are protected, and to also show how important it is, even for an Italian client, to be insured with an international, like, diversified portfolio. So this is also bringing benefit to the Italian customer. So yes, there might be, for us, an opportunity, and we will see how... Like, it's difficult now to quantify totally how important that could be. So let's see how, you know, we clarify all the detail, and then, and then it, it's gonna be more clear also for us. But meanwhile, I can tell you, our distribution network, our business unit in Italy is already working on the topic, so...
Thank you very much, Marco, and thanks everyone for the questions. Should there be any need for any follow-up or additional questions, of course, the IR team remains at your full disposal. Let me thank the speakers for being here, and it was a pleasure to having you today, and we look forward to continue to engage with you. Have a nice day.
Thank you.
Thank you, everyone.
Thank you.
Thank you, everyone.