Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Generali Group nine months 2022 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Fabio Cleva, Head of Investor and Rating Agency Relations. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning, thank you. Thanks, everyone, and welcome to our conference call for the nine months 2022 financial results. The call will be hosted by the group General Manager, Marco Sesana, and by the group CFO, Cristiano Borean. Before opening the Q&A session, let me highlight that the focus of today is on our results and that the call will last approximately one hour. Operator, we are now ready to take questions.
This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from David Barma of BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. The first one is on Life. So you mentioned in the press release some one-off reserve and dynamic in the life segments. Can you talk a little bit about what those are, please? My second question is on P&C and motor specifically, where the top line is up only a few percentage points in the quarter. I know your main value focus is more on the other line, but can you please talk a bit about the trajectory for motor premiums, and when we'll start to see the effects of the price increases we've been talking about in the last three quarters?
Lastly, on cash, can you maybe update us on the holdco cash flexibility, where you expect to land that at year-end? Thank you.
Thank you, David Barma. Cristiano Borean, would you like to take the first question on Life and the third question on the holdco cash, and then Marco Sesana, the question regarding the development of the top line of the motor business in P&C.
Hello, David. So first, thanks for the questions. We'll start from the beginning to clarify the EBIT and do the anatomy of the life operating result. I will start from the end, and then I will give you more detail. Having the assumption that the interest rate curve stays as it is from the point of view of its actual level and the forward implied in the VFA, EUR 514 million compared to nine months 2021 increase of the life operating result, I would say that something around almost 70% of it is recurring, hence related to real uplift stemming from the new environment. The other part is not. Let me try to give you some examples in the different geographies, for example, of non-recurring effects.
One is related, for example, from Italy, where you have some reserve release related to some local regulatory calculation, which are being then relieved because of the higher interest rate environment in a form of a kind of automatic way. Another one is related to the fact in France, for example, that we have a twofold effect. On one side, due to the fact that there has been some changes in the opportunity for our customers to move from immunization in pension products towards lump sum offer. When this happened, the longevity risk reserve has been accordingly released, and this is clearly a one-off effect, which has a positive benefit.
At the same time, you have some interest rate, cost reserve, expenses reserve, where basically due to the higher rates environment, the coverage of the guarantees plus the expenses in any specific segregated fund is guaranteed and some reserves are released. As regards Germany specifically, you have, for example, the fact that there are some specific one-off elements related in particular to the fact that you have some lower amount of ZZR allocation, which going forward you should even think of a possible ZZR release.
For what regards the different aspects of these higher risk result, for example, in Germany, there are even from what regards the specific here, which are running and not one-off, I would like to recall you that we have decided to stop the production of pension product called Riester, which had some so-called riders, but in this Riester we had higher acquisition costs. Going forward, we will see lower acquisition costs because of the closing of this product and the steering towards average. To make it simple, almost 70% is recurring and the non-recurring effect are the one linked to what I was telling you before in these geographies.
Overall, we see an increase in the investment result, especially in the region which are with different profile of liabilities as like Central Eastern Europe, where you can observe a faster pickup of investment result on the real asset side, because of shorter liabilities due to the specificity of the higher protection business. Now, on the holdco cash, as you know, we have always commented about what is the available financial resources to be used for capital redeployment, which at the year-end and as of today will stay around EUR 1 billion. On the other side, we always keep EUR 1 billion of cash buffer on top of this.
There are other forms of cash, which, for example, in the nine months we have EUR 2.5 billion, but we're only treasury operations short-term of money that the companies are just for a shorter term using, which you should not consider as available for us. We have EUR 1 billion + EUR 1 billion for the liquidity buffer. Don't forget that I'm already canceling the EUR 500 million, which will be deployed EUR 468 million for calling the December twelfth bond, which is already public information we will call back. Marco.
Hi. Thanks, Cristiano, and let me take your second question, David, on motor premiums and pricing. Let me say that what we see in the P&C segment overall is a really strong growth, and this is mainly supported by non-motor premium. I just want to remember that our non-motor premium growth was one of the core element of our strategy. We said we wanted to grow more than 5%, and we are on that target, and we are growing really well. On motor, again, we are looking for more for profitability than a specific growth on premium. We are working on injecting price increase, but also working on portfolio pruning.
We are really looking to make sure that our portfolio is healthy, and we can face the next months in a really profitable way. We are injecting price increase. We do see already coming in some of the countries, France is up, while in some other countries we will see that coming in the next month, especially in a country like Germany, where we will have the rate increase in January, and we are pushing for a high rate increase in that market. We are confident that motor premium will increase, but also keep in mind that the bottom line and profitability is what we are looking for. There are also measures of portfolio pruning that will act in a different trend.
Next question, please.
The next question is from Andrew Sinclair of Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Thank you, three from me as well, please. Firstly, just really with rates moving higher, what does this mean for Swiss reserve strengthening, both in 2022 and beyond? Secondly, kind of just digging a bit more into P&C pricing, again, just really wondering if you can unpack the premium growth in P&C into how much of that is really coming from pricing versus how much is coming from volume growth. Kind of just sticking on that, how much pressure are you seeing these days on underwriting competition from rates going higher? The third question is, it's just on the combined ratio, really, if you can pull out the details on how much is weather, how much is PYD, versus current year. Thanks.
Thank you very much, Andrew. Cristiano, I think the first and third question are for you, and the second one is for Marco.
Hello, Andrew. So, Swiss reserve strengthening. In 2022 so far, we are reserving something which is EUR 70 million less compared to last year, because of one side lower speed, and on the other side, higher rates. We still keep a very prudent stance, notwithstanding the fact that there is this better level of rates, in order to manage the volatility. What is beyond? Beyond, it will be a new world. It is the IFRS 17 world, where in the reserving you have the natural translation of the profits against the guarantees, which is really on a revenue recognition basis, more like a kind of value in force view than the actual approach on reserving.
What I'm saying is that this is going to be less. The impact will be strictly related to the inherent profitability of the portfolio. There will be no further, and you will see potentially even positive effect going forward on the Swiss part. Third combined ratio detail. For sure I give you all the elements of the combined ratio. At group level, we have a loss ratio of 65.2%. What we call the attritional
The current year loss ratio, which is excluding the large man-made claim impact above EUR 5 million and excluding the natural catastrophe, was at 64.3%. We had prior year loss ratio movement of -3.1%. I recall that all these numbers are embedding the Argentina figure, which has a negative effect of about 0.6 percentage point higher than last year. This is quite relevant to me. The most important number, and you should look at is the attritional part at 64.3%.
Excluding the Argentina effect, you should see only a 0.1 percentage point increase net of the manmade effect and net of the natural catastrophe, which is a good example of the mixed effect entering on the profitability of the non-motor component versus the one of motor, which as we know, has the drift due to the inflation.
Thank you. Thank you, Andrew. Let me comment on the premium growth on P&C. As I said before, we see a very strong growth in P&C, especially in non-motor, basically across different areas and across different line of business. If we take out for a second Europ Assistance that is benefiting from new contracts, it's really new business coming, and the growth of Europ Assistance is super strong, thanks to this new contract that we have. If you take out, you know, our core market on non-motor, we see a strong increase, both on retail and SMEs, and it's mainly driven by price increase versus volume. We do have, we are pushing on the market price increase.
We are benefiting from some of the portfolio that is, as we discussed, a few times ago, is linked to inflation. We do have about 40% of our P&C portfolio that is linked to inflation. We are seeing the growth of this portfolio, thanks also to this measure. I would stop here.
Thank you very much. Next question, please.
The next question is from Peter Eliot of Kepler Cheuvreux. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. A couple left for me, please. Firstly on the asset manager. The management fee seems pretty resilient in Q3 in isolation compared with the drop in AUM. Just wondering if there's any comments you can give on that, you know, whether that's sustainable, any one-offs, et cetera. Secondly, was wondering if you could just give us an update on your outlook for private equity gains and dividends. I appreciate it's been a bit more difficult year than we might have sort of thought at the outset. We're also expecting a bit of a catch up on the dividend issue, which we don't seem to be seeing.
EUR 165, we've got a plateau last year, so the EUR 540, you know, net result we had last year is not turning into dividend at this stage. You know, should we expect that and maybe give us an update on your outlook? Thanks very much.
Thank you very much, Cristiano. They are both for you.
Hi, Peter. Asset management operating result resiliency, and especially in the performance component. The performance component that you see in the nine months still are 38 million, stable at a healthier result. We were more accurate in the first part of the year, and there were some form of, I would say, one-off related. You should not expect much larger movement in the last quarter. For what regards to the other component, we speak also with the internal capacity to have on the own managed asset to extract the value.
At the same time, there was a strong attention on the operating cost trend of the asset management, not related to the third party, in order also to keep track of the operating revenues versus the operating expenses. Going forward, this for sure will reflect in lower fees because of the lower value of the asset. As I told you, there will be a little bit focus on the especially internal part cost. Second element on the private equity side and the effect. Let me try to highlight you a couple of in my opinion important messages. The first one is related to how should we look at Lion River contribution in the quarter and in the year.
For sure, you recall that last year we had some one-off, more than EUR 100 million, benefit from our Unicorn investment, which is not repeatable, and that should be immediately stripped out. Part of it has been seen in this quarter because it was split half from last quarter and this quarter. We had a drop in the operating result contribution, at group level from Lion River of EUR 137 million. I would say part of it, almost half, coming from the Unicorn, second leg, and the rest is just a delay of realization. As you said, private equity managers are delaying the realization. As regards the impact on the dividend and the number on the impact of the dividend, you have seen that for sure there has been a slowdown in the number.
We have so far allocated in the third quarter the number of dividends paid out by Lion River to participants were mainly EUR 153 million in life, EUR 103 million in P&C, and EUR 13 million in asset management. This is related to the distribution so far. Going forward, I would like just to recall you that starting from next year, IFRS 9 will apply, hence private equity contribution will not be any longer presented in the segment other business. It will be a purely investment in the financial asset class of the line of business life you can see and some dividend received in asset management.
At the same time, you will see a fair value movement contribution compared to the operating result contribution we have seen so far, which is only when realization arrive.
Next question, please.
The next question is from Andrew Ritchie of Autonomous. Please go ahead.
Well, hi there. Just a question to follow up on claims trends in motor, I guess. What are you seeing on frequency? I mean, I'm guessing severity is running up a bit, but what are you seeing on frequency? I think there's some anecdotal suggestion that the frequency is down again in Italy, and if you could just confirm that and give us some explanation as to why that might be. The second question is a broader question on what impact the uncertain macro environment is having on sales, life sales, and/or surrender experience. It seems benign so far, but I wonder if you've done any extra work to look at what might happen, what kind of products have been popular, or what increased risks there might be with respect to surrender risk. Thanks.
Thank you, Andrew. Marco, these are both for you.
Yeah. Thank you, Andrew. Let's start from the claims trend in motor. Clearly, you asked about frequency. Let me say that the frequency is not yet at pre-COVID level. It's still down. We have seen the frequency moving up slightly during the last months after COVID, but it clearly had a slowdown in the recent weeks and probably months. Clearly we are not yet at pre-COVID level, so the frequency is still down. We do think that the energy prices are impacting frequency. We tend to see less use of vehicles, and that is clearly moving, you know, supporting the decrease in frequency.
In particular, you ask for Italy, this is clearly something that we see. Going forward, I think it depends a lot on where we are gonna head in terms of energy prices and supporting measures from the different governments. It's difficult to say. We do see that the frequency is still not yet at the pre-pandemic level. Let's say it this way. I would start the second question, then maybe Cristiano, if you can add. Clearly, life sales are impacted overall from the market conditions. Some of our markets are clearly. The overall market from not ourselves, there is a clear trend on less volume on sales.
I would say that we do believe that our focus on the type of product that we are selling, so hybrid product that it combines unit-linked traditional product protection, and leveraging on our distribution, which is on some market, it's agent distribution. Anyway, there is a strong partnership within ourselves and the distribution. We think that we can maintain some good level in our hybrid product going forward. If you think about some of the market, clearly, like Italy, we have been moving from a life traditional saving to a more composite product and a hybrid product.
We will continue to do so going forward because we think this is really healthy in terms of underwriting discipline that we have going forward. Cristiano, up to you.
Yes, Marco. Just to add, Andrew, and hello. Couple of quantitative in trends view. Especially on the surrender component. Be aware that hybrid products, by definition, having been started in 2016, mainly in the largest part of production, have a five-year tunnel of, let's say, surrender. Which means that starting from five year after you see the possibility to exit, and by design, they have a normal exit of the forecasted by actuaries in the modeling in business value, and the small trend of higher surrender that you can observe is linked to the feature of the product and not to a trend of the customer.
This is a very important point I want to tell you, because as you know, starting from next year, trends and variances on the experience of the behavior of the customer goes through the Contractual Service Margin variances and flows through according to revenue recognition through P&L. Which means that we are not observing deviations from what the actuarial projections we had when we sold the product were designed. This is, in my opinion, a key message I wanted to convey. Then we have some self-inflicted surrender because we did some in-force management. For example, in Italy, changing the offer of products, moving out from products with higher capital intensity to lower capital intensity and better design of the need of the client, which allowed us, by the way, also to improve in a recurring way our investment margin.
Ne xt question, please.
The next question is from Will Hardcastle of UBS. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Just digging a bit deeper into one of the questions there on motor and the claims trends. Just really trying to get the key differentiating features that's going on, because we hear quite a lot from market participants that French marketplace, the trends are very different to Italy and Germany. Just trying to get any color on that, what you're seeing. I guess we're heading into quite an important renewal period here for Germany. Any early indications of what you'd be hoping for, expecting? Are you looking at price, or is there a terms and conditions type discussion here? Thank you.
Thank you, Will. Marco, the question is for you.
Yeah. Deep diving a little bit more on motor, I think you're right. We see different trends and different situation in different in our core markets. Clearly, you mentioned France, Italy and Germany. These are clearly, I would say, undergoing different dynamics. In Italy, we do see that there are pressure on price increase. We are going on that pressure. Again, if you wanna deep dive a little bit more on the different line of business, we see more pressure in MTPL compared to MOD, which is growing a little bit better, also in Italy, but this is true everywhere in Europe.
While we see in France some already price increase taking effect and the business going on in Italy, this will come. MOD is coming a little bit better. You mentioned Germany. I think we will have an important season in January on a price increase. I think you have seen some projection in the market on in forecast on how it might take, you know, this price increase on motor. Just to give you some guidance, I think we will be in the upper part of the price increase for Germany. We are pushing for a significant price increase in Germany in line with the market, but probably in the upper part of the market.
Thanks. Just to follow up, does that imply effectively that the inflation environment in Germany is significantly higher, let's say, in France, if that's why you're demanding that pressure point? What part of the inflation is so different?
We do see that inflation rates are different across Europe. We go from clearly Germany, where inflation impact is a little bit more than Italy, where we see less of an impact on claims. Again, if you wanna deep dive even more, we see this more on material damage than on bodily injury, especially in Italy, where this is really a clear differentiator.
Next question, please.
The next question is from Farooq Hanif of J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi there. Thanks very much. Just again on non-life and then some kind of question on M&A as well. Just going back to what you're saying, you've got a situation where you're seeing inflation, albeit controlled in some markets, and you're not priced for it yet. I'm just wondering, you know, what is the reserving catch-up implication here for you? Where will we see that? Taking all the comments that you've made to everybody so far, if you look at your discrete third quarter combined ratio, it's pretty high, you know, 94.something%.
You know, even if you unpack Argentina and look at man-made losses, it just seems to me that you're potentially tracking here, you know, above your 92. I'm just wondering what you think about that 92% number now for the next few years.
A couple of years, obviously assuming IFRS 17 doesn't exist. My last question is on M&A. You talked about the EUR 1 billion budget that you have static today, but of course you're going to accrue more. Can you just remind us what that accrual is, and at what point do you make a decision to say, "Guys, we're going to give this back to shareholders?
Thank you, Farouk. Cristiano, I think they are, all for you.
Hi, Farooq. I think we need for the third question on the inflation impact on reserving to look it in perspective also of the Solvency II best estimate liability impact we put so far. Which is different from what you observe also on the IFRS accounting. As you know, we have a huge amount of reserve adequacy in the book, but which will disappear from year-end because we will enter in the new standard. On the economic underlying assumption, we decided to have a reinforcement of around EUR 600 million-EUR 650 million in the first nine months of the inflation effect on the P&C reserving, which will be and has been reflected in something which is similar.
This is before taxes, so two percentage points of solvency ratio. Which is exactly in the way of looking things safely going forward and to allow us to manage next year's, where everything will be looked in a fully economic way, in a safe and controlled environment. For what regard the second point, on the 92% target, I have to first of all say two things. First, you asked me to make the assumption that IFRS 17 will not exist. I will stick to that, but for sure we need to see the different definition when we will meet in December. We will show you the market agreement we had and the principle as we are doing small changes in the definition.
Apart from that, say that it is not going to exist. When we created the plan, we were not assuming a different behavior of Argentina inflation, which was at the order of 47% in that moment. The effect of Argentina, which was large, is not embedded in this number. The deterioration of 0.6 further compared to what we did is not embedded, and this should be taken out of the control scope of what we should look at. I would look at Group ex Argentina to manage because it is something under our control, then that would not have been under our control. Plus the perimeter.
I recall you that the calculation was made with the existing perimeter of the group, and not embedding the effect of both the acquisition we had, like Cattolica, India, Malaysia, that we completed, including even La Médicale. Which is clearly changing a little bit the scope. For sure we are acting to get close to this number, but there are some perimeter effect that you should think that could bring a kind of one percentage point higher effect of the target because of the perimeter and the region where we are acting. I recall you that the market in India is above 100% combined ratio, but as a positive result, thanks to the investment.
Regarding the third question of M&A, I recall to you one very important number. This group is in the capacity to create EUR 1 billion of free cash on a yearly basis after having paid the dividend. How long this is keeping to accrue? When I told you, I told you before in the previous answer, the EUR 1 billion by year-end, you have to be aware that we are accruing the dividend in the first quarter or eventually at the latest in April, the vast majority of next year. By at the latest April of next year, we will have for sure accrued another EUR 1 billion on top of what we had already accrued.
We have some internal bridging because we receive all the dividend and the cost, and the financing is delayed. We have a lot of flexibility around this. What is the number? We confirm that we will be able to generate something between EUR 2.5 billion-EUR 3 billion of M&A capacity. We confirm, as we said, at the presentation of the plan, that we will stick to exactly the same discipline that we had in the previous plan. That in case this amount will not be deployed for capital deployment, we will act as we are doing in these days. You know, we are more than 80% of buyback completed.
giving it back to the shareholder in the form of a buyback, but at the end of the plan period.
Next question, please.
The next question is from William Hawkins of KBW. Please go ahead.
Hello, thank you very much for taking my questions. Thanks for the clarity you gave in your first comment about the higher life results. Could you just also explain why would it be that the trends you described suddenly become apparent in the third quarter? Because bond yields have been rising pretty smoothly and steeply from the beginning of the year. So just help me understand the timing of it, please. While you've been very helpful about the one-off figure, sometimes one-offs can recur, you know, if you've got other reserve reviews and the rest of it.
Do I just take that EUR 150 million, the 30% you referred to and say that's it, or could there be other issues to come? Could you give any hint again? The nine months life operating profit is EUR 2.5 billion if I strip out that one off. A lot of companies are now saying that their IFRS 17 and 9 numbers are gonna be amazingly similar to their historical figures. Could you give me some comfort that that EUR 2.5 billion is a working number I can plug in for the new world, or is there a great risk that Generali's number could be massively different? Could you help me with the numerator and the denominator of your 223 solvency ratio?
If it's quick and easy, just tell me what the market impacts were on available and required capital in the third quarter. Thank you.
Thank you very much, William. Cristiano, I think they are all for you.
Hello, William. Thanks. Life result. It is not an effect of all of a sudden, in the sense that some of them were related to some period of observation. There are rolling windows which are activated, and they're different in every country. When this rolling window happens, sometimes are 12 months, sometimes are 24 months, sometimes are prospective, and you need to see in that moment when they will be released. Some of the effects I was mentioning were also present in the half year. Take the case of the longevity, for example, effect in France was already a little bit present there. Are we expecting something else going on with this level?
I would expect some further small potential benefit of one-off also again, in Italy due to this effect. For what regards, I think the other countries, the vast kick in is there, but we have a supportive trend in some other small pieces of the balance sheet, which I would like to give you some guidance, would be supportive for the fourth quarter, again, on the life result. In going to the second question, which is the $1 million-dollar or $2.5 billion-dollar questions on the IFRS 4 versus IFRS 17. First of all, we will not comment on the future number until they will be completely audited. I would like to give you some hints on what you should think about.
The Generali Group has an important component of its life business coming from business which is not with the deferred acquisition cost, so has an immediate impact of acquisition cost in the P&L versus other form of accounting. For sure, IFRS 17 is putting this, the deferred acquisition cost or equivalent into a revenue recognition, so broadening them and making them around a lifetime of the contract. I would expect that at least this is a positive phenomenon towards what is the regular representation of the group. Having said that, we will deep dive progressively, and we will start talking about this in December in our investor day, dedicated also to IFRS 17 and 9.
Regarding the solvency ratio numerator and the denominator, for the nine months 2022, we have EUR 46.6 billion of own funds, EUR 21 billion of Solvency Capital Requirement. The market effect in the three months, so from half year to nine months, the economic variances were linked to -3.6 percentage points effect, and they were mainly related to a positive effect of interest rates and a negative effect of the spread of the govvies and equity. I would like to highlight that there is an effect related to volatilities, which only in the third quarter accounted for -3% effect in the solvency ratio.
Which is important because the volatility of interest rate, thanks to the huge movement we had and uncertainty of the central bank behavior increased massively. A factor which was not there before as a measurable one because of always sufficiently in line or within a band has some hit. I would like to take the opportunity to give you also some guidance going forward, since you asked about the sensitivity. I think it is important to notice that the sensitivity on interest rates at the 9 months of this group compared to the year-end 2021 are very materially different. At year-end 2021, for a 50 basis point down of interest rate, we would have lost 10 percentage points, and today the sensitivity would be 4 percentage points of a loss.
Instead, if rate goes up by a further 50 basis points, at year-end 2021, we would have had a sensitivity of 9 percentage points, and today we would have had a sensitivity of 3 percentage points. Which is explaining to you that we are getting in our book of business quite far away from the strike price of the cost of the guarantees, which is a very healthy signal I would like to convey.
Next question, please.
The next question is from Michael Huttner of Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. I have three, but they're really short. On pricing, maybe could you possibly be a little bit more
To give a bit more color, so on Italy, as I understand it, the government has increased bodily injury tariffs by 6%, and I'm just wondering if that is also the pricing figure in MTPL. In Germany, I'm sorry, I didn't follow the answer fully, and I'm sure you can't be guided, but are you saying that it's likely that the rate rises will be over 10% or around 10%? The third is more on capital generation, so EUR 2 billion at the six-month stage versus up 9%. Last year, EUR 3.8 billion, if I add 9%, I get EUR 4.1 billion. I just wondered whether there's anything else I should be thinking of.
Thank you very much, Michael. If okay for you, Cristiano, we start with the capital generation question, the third one that Michael asks, for you. Then Marco, if okay for you take the question on the pricing in Italy and as well as on the outlook for the German renewal. Cristiano, over to you.
Yes. Thanks, Michael. I would concentrate in the third quarter capital generation compared to the overall yearly one. You have seen it is EUR 2.9 billion in the first 9 months, concentrated in 2.2 in life, EUR 1 billion of P&C, and then -0.3 billion of holding and financial because also of the effect of the holding cost. What I would like to highlight is that the capital generation in the third quarter, 2022 was more than EUR 800 million, EUR 860 million compared to 622 of last year.
There was a positive contribution stemming as well from some discounting effect also in the non-life and as well to some higher contribution of the financial. This is all in all what you should look at. In general, the capital generation of life compared to the previous quarter was broadly stable, slightly lower, also because of the new business value total mix and unwinding of the risk margin release. For what is important for me, just to close this point, is that the group is in line to get the capital generation, and this environment has to be conducive for what regards the capacity to generate higher margin.
Clearly we need to focus also on the volumes to keep the New Business Value, keeping.
That's helpful. Thank you.
Hi. Let me jump in with the other two question here, and I would start from Germany. I wouldn't give you a specific number that on January renewal. Let me state that the message that we want to convey is that, as we said before, we care for our overall profitability, and we manage the business to keep our profitability. When you think about price increase and giving the type of inflation we have seen in Germany, we will be on the higher side of the price increase. That being said, I think it's very clear that we will try to push for a significant price increase in the January part.
Let me go back now to Italy. I think you are referring to what is called in Italy microlesioni, so on the
Mm-hmm.
Small part of bodily injury. That I think is what you are referring to. It's clear that we have seen a price increase around that number that you said. It's 6%, 7% is around that number. On the other side, what we have experienced in Italy on bodily injury in the last few months is not a terrible increase. Inflation, it has not hit bodily injury in a dramatic way compared to other parts of Europe. Overall, I think the business is keeping up with the pricing quick increase we have pushed in the last months, and we will push in the next months.
It's very helpful. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you, Michael. Next question, please.
The next question is from Steven Haywood of HSBC. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thank you. Just a couple of quick questions from me. In the non-life investment income, can you give an indication of what your reinvestment rate is currently versus what at the start of the year? And then secondly, can you remind us on your ambitions in asset management, particularly with respect to M&A in Europe and the U.S. and any other regions after we've seen some best reports recently? Thank you.
Cristiano, would you like to take the first one on the P&C reinvestment rates? Marco, the second question.
Hello, Steven. The P&C reinvestment rate in the first nine months on the.
Direct invested business is 2.55%. This should be compared to the previous nine months, 2021 of 1.26% of the reinvestment yield on the direct bond. The amount reinvested on the direct purchases was EUR 3.2 billion compared to last year, which was EUR 2.5 billion. This is also because of the higher growth of the portfolio. In general, it is important to notice that we have a good mix, especially due to the growth of our Central Eastern Europe business, where rates are higher. Going forward, this number could be further increased because of the actual rates we are observing.
In the last quarter, we should get a higher projected reinvestment rate with the positive inflow of the good momentum we are having, especially in motor.
I'm taking up the second question just to say that as we will restate that we don't comment on press articles, so I would not add anything else to this.
Next question, please.
The next question is from Andrea Lisi of Equita. Please go ahead.
Hi. Just a clarification on the investment rate. You talked about the P&C. If you can provide an update also on the investment yield also in life. Just to understand if it is the average level for the nine months or if it is the actual. If you can provide the level of the actual reinvestment yield. The second question is on your expectation on the life business premium evolution going on, especially with this interest rate environment, and also of the present value of new business premiums and how this can impact to the new business value. If you obviously then you will provide us more updates in December.
Do you think that IFRS 17 can impact your strategy on investment in real asset and derivative? Thank you.
Thank you very much, Andrea. Cristiano, the first question are for you, while the second one is for Marco.
Yes. The investment rate in life average in the first nine months as the number I gave before for P&C, which was the average on the first nine months, is 2.28% compared to 1.46% in 2021. Again, I stress this is the direct investment and not the investment to private debt funds, for example, which is higher. If I have to project today what is the reinvestment rate we can achieve in the mix, we are closer to the 4.5% level due to the mix between corporate and govies we can achieve. Third question, what is the impact of IFRS 17 on our real asset strategy?
Well, first of all, I think that the impact of IFRS 17 on investment should not be driven because what matters is asset liability management. Fortunately, asset liability management and IFRS 17 are extremely well connected from the fact that you need to have more and more equilibrium in the portfolio to be seen in the way you represent it in a kind of Solvency II view, like the Contractual Service Margin. I'm expecting that there is no difference. The only difference related to the fair value through profit and loss movement of assets which are not in the so-called Variable Fee Approach, so life backing with-profits policies, but either in shareholder equity or in non-life business.
That is not impacting because in agreement with many of our colleagues in the CFO forum, we are always focusing on a kind of adjusted net result view going forward. This I can anticipate, where the fair value profit and loss are, in a certain sense, white noise against a long-term view that you should put. We are focused in the long-term value creation of instruments, for example, like a real asset could be private equity or the private debt fund investment, but in life are on a total return basis. I just recall you that real estate is treated within funds in fair value, but when it is in life, but when it is in P&C, we keep it at historical cost.
It is even a favorable asset because it's not creating fair value volatility unless for impairments, as it is today, as a treatment.
Let me start your second question, and then I will give the word to Cristiano to integrate. Especially would like to comment on the evolution of the life business premium. Clearly we see an environment that might continue for the next month. At least when we are talking about between the nine months and the 12 months, we do see that the condition will more or less stay the same for the business, for the life business.
As I stated before, we will stick to our underwriting discipline on selling on the market hybrid product, continue especially in France and in Germany this trend of moving toward a more balanced product, more hybrid balanced product, so with more unit link and less segregated funds. We do see the opportunity in Italy to have some tactical measure because the business is very healthy. As you know, we sell even traditional fund with no financial guarantee. We do see the conditions are good even for tactics, so to get a little bit more volume on a tactical basis. Let me restate it.
Overall, we will stay in our disciplined underwriting also on life, but we can do some tactical measure, especially in Italy, to get a little bit more premium in the next months. Cristiano, do you wanna comment on?
Yes, Marco.
Business value?
Yes. The New Business Value, the driver in the New Business Margin from the nine months 2021, 4.76% to 5.42% of nine months 2022, the economic value is accounted only for 31 basis points increase. What was relevant for me is the fact that the business mix, so businesses with higher PDNBP are growing in a more profitable way. On the other side, there are positive factors because of the mix and the contribution of some long-term guarantees in the long-term products like pension, which are bringing a better mix, which do not have guarantees, but they are long-term in their nature, increasing the New Business Margin.
I just add one important thing that we will be focused in the next quarters, as Marco said, to mix and balance, not because we are not interested in the New Business Margin as an item per se. What we are focused is the New Business Value, which is the key driver that we are putting into also our CEOs of business unit balanced scorecard to focus on the Contractual Service Margin going forward view of value accretion, value production, and from next year also result combination.
Next question, please.
The next question is from Sudarshan Sampathkumar of Société Générale. Please go ahead.
Hi there. Two questions from my side, please. First is on the non-life, non-motor products. Can you just provide some sort of a split between premium increases, volume versus pricing? You know, just give a sort of an understanding on the risk on the demand for such products as pricing continues to increase significantly. That's the first question. The second question, again, is on Swiss reserving. You mentioned that, you know, the Swiss reserve is EUR 17 million less than what you did in the nine months 2022. I mean, at least, back of the envelope calculation, this means that you are still going ahead with your plan to do EUR 200 million reserve addition for 2022 as you had previously guided. Is that correct?
If yes, why? I mean, you know, given the rising interest rate environment, why is that still important? Thank you.
Sorry, Sudarshan. The line was not very good, especially concerning the first question. Would you be so kind to maybe repeat it for us please?
Sure, sure. For the first question, this relates to the non-life, non-motor products. With regards to the premium increases, can you just provide some sort of a split between volumes versus pricing and the risk on the demand for such non-motor products given the steep price increases that, you know, the customers are facing for such products?
Thank you very much. Cristiano, I would suggest you take the second question on the Swiss reserving, and then, Marco, the first question that came from the call.
Hi, Sudarshan. I confirm you on the Swiss reserving that we are in line to stay close to the EUR 200 million. There will be no increase due to the environment. As I said, it is extremely prudent, the approach we are keeping. It is lower than last year.
Going forward, you should think about not having an increase in the reserving because of the structure of the already achieved amount, and it will be more natural in the new IFRS 17 environment to reserve along the lines of the product with the inherent profitability of the product per se without having a negative impact on top of what is the value that we can produce. I confirm that we will not absolutely exceed EUR 200 million this year. We are very close to that level, and we are EUR 72 million less than the previous year. I hand over to Marco.
Yeah. Let me dive a second on P&C non-motor. Clearly, we do have seen a good growth of the business. As I stated before, our business is indexed to inflation in, of course, different type, in terms of line of business, retail, SME, so everyone has a different percentage of indexation. As we said, the overall P&C is 40% of the portfolio linked to inflation. As we are seeing, especially if you take out, as I said, if you take out large partnership that we are doing in Europ Assistance, the core markets are increasing more for pricing effect versus volume.
Having said that, I think it's interesting the question on the customer behavior, which is facing this price increase. Let me say that we are not the only one doing this. We see a market-wide uplift, and we are part of the competition that is doing this price increase, so we are not seen as the only one doing this thing. We do see the need of being super compelling on the value proposition of our products, so on being more efficient, more customer-centric, and giving more, I would say, effectiveness on our value proposition. We do see that we need to make sure that we justify this price increase with even more efficiency and effectiveness on the value proposition that we present to the client.
Overall, in the market, we do see appetite for this type of product on different, line of business, whether it is for SMEs, that it's really growing well, and it's a focus of our strategy, or retail. We do see an appetite to grow the business.
Okay. Thank you.
Mr. Cleva, there are no more questions registered at this time.
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