Leonardo S.p.a. (BIT:LDO)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2021

Jul 29, 2021

Operator

Good afternoon. This is the conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Leonardo First Half 2021 Results Presentation. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing Star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Miss Valeria Ricciotti, Head of Investor Relations and Credit Rating Agencies of Leonardo. Please go ahead, madam.

Valeria Ricciotti
Head of Investor Relations and Credit Rating Agencies, Leonardo

Good evening, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to our First Half 2021 Results Conference Call. I'm Valeria Ricciotti, Head of Investor Relations and Credit Rating Agencies. Today, our CEO, Alessandro Profumo, and our CFO, Alessandra Genco, will take you through our progress during the first half of this year, the first-half financial results, and the outlook for 2021. We will then welcome your questions. I will now hand you over to our CEO.

Alessandro Profumo
CEO, Leonardo

Many thanks, Valeria. Good evening, everybody. First of all, I hope that everyone on the call is well, and thank you all for taking the time to join us today on this call. Hopefully soon, we will be able to see you in person again. There are some important themes you can see in our presentation today. First of all, we had a very solid first half back on the growth path, and we are on track with defense electronics, helicopters, and aircraft all performing strongly. The full year 2021 guidance is confirmed as well. Businesses are on track to deliver targets. The civil aerospace side remains challenging, although we are seeing some more positive signs. Our strong foundation and core fundamentals give us confidence in the short, medium, and long term outlook.

We are also seeing more long-term growth opportunities post-COVID, leveraging our competencies, advanced technologies, and innovation capabilities all across the group. We are demonstrating our commitment to ESG with a number of successful achievements. Let's look at the first half results. Our commercial activity has continued strongly, actually even higher than pre-COVID. We are continuing to achieve strong order intake despite the pandemic, with new orders of EUR 6.7 billion.

We have been delivering well on our strong backlog, and we have driven very good top-line growth. Our revenues in the first half stood at EUR 6.3 billion and book-to-bill above one. Our operational performance has been further improving. Our main military governmental business remains very strong and robust. While we continue to remain cautious about the timing of recovery of the civil business, also, we are beginning to see some positive signs, mainly in narrow body and the regional segment.

We have successfully improved cash flow, and we are on track to meet our full-year targets, and we are targeting net debt at year-end over EUR 3.3 billion. All this amounts to a good first-half performance in the context of an external environment that is still volatile and affected by the global pandemic. This performance is due to the quality of our businesses and their core fundamentals and strengths, and I have to say to our people as well. Strong confidence in medium- and long-term potentials of our main businesses. We've been executing well and driving volumes to deliver growth for the medium term in our main businesses, and you can see this at business level. First of all, helicopters. Here, we delivered well and are on track. Again, commercial activity has been good and remains underpinned by key factors.

Robust military governmental business, attractive customer support and training, a strong backlog, more than 80% military and governmental, and the book-to-bill above one for the fourth year in a row. Our exposure to military governmental is providing resiliency, flexibility, solidity, and longer-term visibility to our results, and we have been able to catch many good opportunities. We remain cautious on when the civil side will recover, but we are encouraged by a growing number of discussions with customers, with good signs in the EMS and VIP market. We feel positive looking forward, and certainly, our recent performance proves the importance of our strategy, like. We have a clear technology roadmap looking forward to leverage on and build for the future, for example, the AW09 to enlarge our product range and open new markets. Defense electronics has significantly improved its performance on the European side.

In the U.S., we have continued the positive trajectory of Leonardo DRS. Electronic Europe had a much stronger first half, very solid in all areas. Defense electronics has recovered well. We have been doing the right things to make our electronics activities more robust and predictable. We have demonstrated our ability to deliver, as we have built a strategic long-term partnership with customers based on trust and close cooperation and understanding customer needs, and delivering on them and leading the long-term repeat business. Here, commercial activity has also been very strong, winning good business to add to our backlog, despite ongoing travel restrictions. We are well-positioned on attractive long-term opportunities, like FCAS, Tempest, and EuroMALE, and we are seeing attractive long-term opportunities across avionics, land, and naval programs. We are seeing an evolution in the order mix, with an increasing number of long-term domestic orders based on solid customer relationships.

While there are less short-term export contracts, because COVID is limiting our ability to travel. Overall, we have seen a good step-up in both order, revenues, EBITDA, and profitability. There are good reasons to be positive looking forward. We can see longevity in our Eurofighter Typhoon-related activities. As the aircraft looks set to fly until 2050, with continued investment ahead of them for new equipment, mainly electronics. Then we are seeing the development of the Tempest program, and this is giving us the kind of real long-term visibility greater than we have ever seen. The rest is also progressing well, continuing to deliver on promises. It has a strong backlog around EUR 11 billion, including the unfunded portion. You remember always that we talk of hard backlogs, soft backlog. The sum of the two is around EUR 11 billion.

It's well-positioned towards key DoD priorities with a visible improvement in EBITDA and profitability driven by program transitioning from development to production. You can see all this is detailed in the Form S-1 and its updated updates, which we are continuing to make publicly available. Aircraft is a structurally strong business performing well, with a step-up this year in its order, revenues, and profitability. We have a very high-quality business with military governmental exposure. Aircraft growth is being driven across all its business lines. We continue to benefit from the important EFA Wave contract and also from other EFA activities into the medium long-term. We can also see our longer-term future in the fighter market being shaped by Tempest. The strong success of our trainers is also driving our growth.

We see exciting opportunities developing for our M-345 and M-346, such as opening a new market for the Freighter Attack version, a unique platform in the market. Also leveraging a new approach to training system through the International Flight Training School, selling flight hours. All underpinned by an important contribution from customer support of around 25%. We are also very excited by our position on EuroMALE, a key European defense program of the future. All this makes aircraft a growth story for us with an excellent future. While on the civil side, we are proactively addressing the challenges faced by Aerostructure, and we have signed last week's agreement with the unions for the early retirement of up to 500 people, as announced in March.

This will be NPV positive, as well as the upskilling and reskilling starting in 2020 for the redeployment of another 500 people in other divisions of the group. In ATR, we have delivered six aircraft in the first half, and we are on track to meet our full-year target of more than doubling last year deliveries. We are seeing some signs of market recovery in the narrow-body and regional segments of the civil aerospace package. We expect that ATR to recover earlier than other areas of civil, although not evenly across all geographies. The cargo market is certainly seeing opportunities with COVID-related tailwinds. We will update you in more detail on our progress repositioning the civil business when we present to you the third quarter results. At group level, we are also seeing more attractive opportunities to deliver long-term growth post-COVID using our existing assets, capabilities, and technologies.

A prime example being the very significant Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan we are very well-placed to support. As well as the NextGenerationEU. At the same time, we maintain our strong commitment to ESG and can point to a number of success here. ESG to us is crucial and a key base for our strategy and industrial plan. This synergy of financial and ESG factors is reflected in our first integrated report, which is comprehensive, measurable, and transparent view of the value generated by the company. We recently won the CFO Awards in Italy in recognition of Alessandro's work in leading our integrated reporting process. In 2020, we also received key awards. We ranked first in the Transparency International Defence Company Index 2020. And we are number one worldwide. We were confirmed industry leader in aerospace and defence of the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices.

We achieved a A score in CDP for climate change. We have been included in the Gender-Equality Index in Bloomberg. Yesterday, we have been confirmed again as the top in anti-corruption with the Anti-Bribery Management System Certification. It reflects a commitment to integrity, transparency, and compliance made over the years, and the rules in place to prevent and fight against corruption. You see the importance and priority we are placing to ESG, also in the new long-term incentive plan. Sustainability targets are 10% of the short-term remuneration. For the first time, also our long-term incentive plan now contains two key ESG metrics on which we'll be evaluated over the next three years. This accounts for 20% of the long-term remuneration, and this is a strong commitment for all of us.

We have a clear alignment of the executive pay with the ESG target to ensure sustainability is embedded in culture and behaviors. The effective management of economic, environmental, and social risk and opportunities creates long-term value and assures reliable and robust returns. I will now hand over to Alessandra, who will go into more detail on our business and financial performance in depth. Thank you.

Alessandra Genco
CFO, Leonardo

Thanks, Alessandro. Good afternoon, everybody. I want to start with the key topics on our first half results, then cover the performance across the operating businesses, and then update you on how we are so far on track for the full year. Starting with our half year results, in summary, you can see we had a solid first half to the year. Commercial activity has continued strongly with orders of EUR 6.7 billion, up 9.5%. We have delivered well on our strong backlog and driven good top-line revenue growth up 7.9% at EUR 6.3 billion. Military governmental remains very robust, while we remain cautious on the timing of the civil side recovery. We're clearly strengthening our performance as we increase volumes and reduce COVID impact while executing on programs. EBITDA in the first half of EUR 400 million translates into a return on sales higher than last year at 6.3%.

Despite the cash pressures on the civil side, group free cash flow is negative EUR 1.4 billion, following our seasonal trend, but increased materially on the same period last year, and so far we are on track to meet our full year targets. All this amounts to a good first half performance, especially in the context of an external environment that is still challenging and affected by the global pandemic. Now let's look in more details at the key group metrics across the operating businesses. Starting with new order intake, which was EUR 6.7 billion. This is a strong performance. We have continued to win important contracts, and it shows the strength and resilience of our military and governmental business. We've continued affirmation from customers in our important domestic markets as well as on the export side.

Again, we saw good performances across the group, and especially strong performances in Defense Electronics and Aircraft. Helicopters performed well with important order wins. Order intake was EUR 2 billion in the first half, lower year-over-year because of the major U.K. Merlin customer support order we booked in 2020. Major order of notice were a follow-up order for 36 TH-73A, the AW119 helicopters for the Marina Militare training, other follow-up orders for the Italian

Army, and an order for the AW139 helicopters for Saudi Arabia. In Defense Electronics overall, we saw order intake of EUR 3.6 billion, of which EUR 2.4 billion in Electronics Europe, showing a significant increase from the previous year. Highlights here were orders to supply equipment for the Marina Militare new submarines, and also continued successes on the Eurofighter Typhoon program, winning orders to supply radar and aerial protection systems for the Luftwaffe under the broader Quadriga program.

On a smaller scale currently, but of a growing importance for the future, we secured the next tranche of Tempest funding. We also won orders in the cyber segment for the Italian Carabinieri and the MOD. In the U.S., DRS order intake was $1.2 billion, continuing to benefit well from its position in key markets and its alignment with DoD priorities. In aeronautics, order intake was EUR 1.3 billion.

The aircraft division performed very well and again accounted for about 65% of this total, winning export orders for the M-346 trainer aircraft. On the other hand, aerostructure order intake fell to EUR 133 million, reflecting much lower demand from its main customers, Boeing, Airbus, and ATR. Overall, we can be very pleased with the level of commercial activity surrounding order intake. We have succeeded in keeping our book-to-bill above one. Moving on to revenues. Revenues were EUR 6.3 billion for the first half.

A good top-line performance driven by our strong backlog and solid order intake. That's evidence of the quality of the businesses, the growth path is confirmed. We saw top-line growth spread across all our divisions except aerostructures. Helicopters achieved EUR 1.9 billion of revenues, a double-digit increase, up 11.6%, as we ramped up volumes on military and governmental programs such as the NH90 for Qatar and the TH-7 3A for the U.S. Navy, as well as higher revenues on the AW189, AW149, and AW169 lines. Defense electronics as a whole also achieved double-digit growth in revenues, up 9.3% to EUR 3.2 billion, with the European side showing strong growth of 15.5%, while DRS in the U.S. continued on its positive growth trajectory. In constant currency, also up approximately 10%. Aircraft increased first half revenues by 15% to EUR 1.2 billion, with the growth driven by the trainers M-346.

Overall, a solid and resilient revenue performance across the group and a key reliable driver of our medium-term revenue growth. We can rely on a strong backlog to deliver this long-term growth. The backlog was EUR 36 billion, large in size, including key large orders. The backlog covers almost three years of equivalent production, and it is well-balanced, as you have seen, across our core businesses, our core geographies, and between military governmental, civil, and customer support. We have also improved our operational performance in the first half, with group EBITDA increasing 37% to EUR 400 million, return on sale rising to 6.3% as we increase volumes and deliver our programs. We saw further recovery in our operating efficiency as we continue to reduce the impact of COVID.

We have delivered a stronger industrial performance across all our main businesses, up from 2020, and despite the ongoing drag of the civil aerostructure business, where losses increased as expected in the first half. Looking at the individual businesses. Helicopters' EBITDA increased its first half results to EUR 148 million, mainly due to better industrial efficiency compared to 2020, and with resulting in ROS slightly lower at 7.8% because of the mix of activities. Defense Electronics EBITDA was the standout performer in the first half, increasing total EBITDA to EUR 297 million. The European side doubled performance to EUR 201 million, increasing growth from 5.6% - 9.6%. Again, on the back of increased volumes and improved program performance across businesses, as well as actions to reduce the impact of COVID and increase efficiency.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., we saw DRS continue on a very positive trajectory, increasing EBITDA in constant currency to $160 million. Up 66%, with ROS rising from 5.7% - 8.7%. This includes clear signs and evidence of the margin expansion as programs transition from development to production phases. In aircraft, first half EBITDA increased to EUR 150 million. Another strong performance, with strong growing volumes and improved efficiency. ROS translated into 12.2%.

As we expected, losses in our civil aerostructure business increased in the first half to EUR 82 million, as volumes fell across its production sites. ATR itself actually reduced its negative contribution from EUR 34 million to EUR 21 million on the back of successful actions on cost, a better contribution from customer support, and even a slightly higher level of deliveries. Six extra aircraft were delivered in the first half of 2021 versus one single delivery last year.

Lastly, space contribution turned around and improved to positive EUR 23 million, as we saw higher production volumes and better profitability in the manufacturing segment, and one-off income at tax level. Moving to the below the line items, you can see that first half EBIT rose by approximately 50% to EUR 347 million, reflecting the improvement in EBITA. The non-recurring costs in the first half amounted to EUR 35 million compared to EUR 45 million last year, with restructuring costs still not including expected costs associated with the Aerostructure pre-retirement pension plans. PPA was EUR 11 million. Our net results reflected EBITA performance, financial expenses of EUR 88 million, and lower impact from FX hedging activity. Our free operating cash flow was negative, almost EUR 1.4 billion, compared to negative EUR 1.9 billion at the same time last year.

We are pleased with that improvement, and although our cash flow is heavily weighted to the latter part of the year, it all means we are on track at this stage to meet our full-year guidance. We also confirm our strong liquidity position at EUR 4.2 billion, as well as good financial flexibility in these exceptional times to cope with possible swings in financial needs. Let me give you an update on how we see the outlook and the full year. You have seen that we have delivered a solid first half, and we are on track with our expectations. Our main businesses are delivering, and the year has started well on all metrics. We are confirming our full-year guidance, assuming progressive improvement in the global health situation throughout the year, with consequent normalization of operating and market conditions. You can see it here on the slide.

Continuing good commercial momentum and new order intake. Group top line growing as we leverage off a solid backlog. Group EBITA improving and remaining robust despite receiving softness and continuing COVID effects, and group free operating cash flow of circa EUR 100 million, with resilience on the defense side offset by the expected increased pressure on Aerostructures and more normal levels of net investments. Let me remind you that we expect to absorb cash in the third quarter, as per the usual seasonal pattern. Looking at our businesses across the group. In helicopters, on track in the first half, delivered a good performance. We are encouraged by continued strong commercial activity, which remains underpinned by robust military, governmental, and customer support. We're cautious about the speed of recovery in the civil side, but we're starting to have some more engaged discussions with customers, mainly on EMS and VIP.

We feel positive about being on track for the full year, and this confirms strength of the business. Defense electronics. On the European side, we saw a very strong first half and feel on track for the full-year expectations. We are also seeing the benefits of a more robust and predictable business, and at the same time, winning good new orders and growing both our top line profitability and cash generation. In the U.S., DRS has also had a solid first half and remains on track with its positive trajectory. It has solid prospects driven by its positioning towards key DoD priorities and programs under development moving into production phase, so delivering the expected margin expansion. In aircraft, we also saw a solid first half and we are on track.

Volumes have been increasing, margins remain strong, and we continue to build on our backlog with a strong fighter market and export opportunities for our proprietary platforms. Aerostructure has the most exposure to civil markets. As we expected this year in 2021, we are seeing the impact of significantly reduced demand from customers, Boeing, Airbus, and ATR, because of falling air traffic demand. We're still expecting a cash absorption of EUR 350 million-EUR 400 million in 2021, more towards the lower end of the range of EUR 350. Our ATR joint venture continues to face challenges, but we are seeing some more positive signs in the regional market. ATR is on track to more than double its delivery this year versus 2020. Space is on track for the year.

To sum up, you have seen in our first half results that we are on track and delivering in an external context that remains volatile and uncertain, while remembering that our business is weighted more to the second half. The key points here are we are back on the growth path. We've continued strong commercial activity, building our order backlog with a book-to-bill above one. Backlog driving higher volumes and top-line growth across sectors. Profitability benefiting from increasing volume and solid industrial performance, and cash flow on track supported by detailed action plan, delivering the first effect already in the half year. With that, we are ready to take your questions. Thank you.

Operator

Excuse me. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star one on their touchtone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star two. We kindly ask to use handsets when asking questions, and to speak slowly and clearly. Anyone who has a question may press star one at this time. The first question is from Alessandro Pozzi of Mediobanca. Please go ahead.

Alessandro Pozzi
Analyst, Mediobanca

Hi, good evening, all. My first question is on free cash flow. I'm just looking at the company-compiled consensus, the 2024, I think, is around EUR 700 million free cash flow. In order to get to your guidance of neutral net debt by the end of the plan, I think we should assume a free cash flow above the EUR 1 billion mark from 2025. I know it's quite far in the future. I think it would be very useful to know how much of that is structural, how much of that is just a working capital reversal. We know there is a bigger Qatar program helping, but we also know that the Qatar has a payment spread throughout the plan. I think any indication on how that free cash flow is supported, and whether there is a bigger structural element, I think it would be helpful.

Given that you're probably going to have so much cash, what is the appetite for more acquisitions going forward? How much of that free cash flow generation will be for disposal? That's the first question.

Alessandra Genco
CFO, Leonardo

Okay, Alessandro. The buildup of that cash flow over time is mainly the result of two drivers. The first one is the strong continued delivery on the military governmental backlog that we have, and the continued commercial success that in this business segment of the group is achieving, as we are showing also in this first half result. This is resulting in a higher top line with higher profitability and deriving cash flows with associated tight working capital management, and all the actions we have taken to maximize cash-ins and timely cash-ins of activity and milestones. The other driver is the decreasing absorption from the civil aeronautics business with a recovery in production volumes, as we are starting to see in some segments of the market.

We are confident that towards the end of the plan, the second half of the plan, there will be more production associated with all the programs in which we are engaged.

Alessandro Profumo
CEO, Leonardo

Yeah. On acquisition, we don't have any specific appetite. The appetite we have is to be investment grade. The day we will be investment grade, we will do any action which is necessary in order to keep this investment grade position.

Alessandro Pozzi
Analyst, Mediobanca

Okay. Thank you. I also have another question on DRS. We've seen a nice recovery in margins. Should we assume those margins to be stable at that level, 9% ROS? Also, do you think that allows maybe DRS to be better valued, and do you think market conditions are now improved compared to when you tried to IPO the business earlier in the year?

Alessandro Profumo
CEO, Leonardo

First of all, you remember that when we decided to postpone the IPO was really a specific market condition. What is good, and you stressed that, is the fact that there has been a significant improvement in terms of margin. In reality, DRS is delivering what promised during the roadshow. The problem was that at that time, there was a significant discount by the market on the results we were promising. I think that today, we have shown the first quarter and the second quarter that there are structural elements for which DRS is improving the profitability. Mainly the fact that we are, and this is a really strategic choice, we are reducing the acquisition, in any case, growing more than the market of new programs. We have a higher number of programs, so the weighted average is changing that is moving from development to production.

You know better than me that in U.S., there is a significant difference in terms of marginality for development program and production programs. Today we are still above the market rate in terms of the balance between development and production, but we are lower than the peak we had two years ago, if I remember correctly. The improving profitability of DRS is implied in this structural element of DRS.

Alessandro Pozzi
Analyst, Mediobanca

Okay. Would it be fair to assume that maybe the IPO is something will happen before year end?

Alessandro Profumo
CEO, Leonardo

If you have a crystal ball that can see the market in the second half of the year, we will pay a little bit this crystal ball so that we know if the market will be. We are very cautious on cost. It is impossible to say how the market will be. If the market will be positive, as we always said, we have postponed the IPO, not withdrawn.

Alessandro Pozzi
Analyst, Mediobanca

All right. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question is from Andrew Humphrey of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Andrew Humphrey
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I've got a couple, if I may. You mentioned in your prepared comments the agreement that you've signed for early retirement of 500 people and indicated that would be NPV positive. Would I be correct in assuming the implication there is that there is an upfront cash cost to that? Could you highlight in a bit more detail whether that is included in your cash absorption assumptions for this year, or the timing and extent of any cash outflow associated with that? The second question that I have is, since you last reported, obviously we've had some further kind of shifting to the right on the Boeing 787, Boeing even producing below the five a month they'd outlined previously. Does that have an incremental impact on aerostructures and your expectations on recovery?

I guess, how close are you to the end state on restructuring of that business?

Alessandro Profumo
CEO, Leonardo

Many thanks for this question, because are key. The first one, early retirement, is a nice verse. We have an upfront cost. The cash flow will be positive year after year because we charge all the cost when we sign the contract. We have the outflow of cash when the people is, in reality, retiring or getting out from the company. Year after year, the savings we have of the people retired is higher in terms of cash outflow, is higher than the payment we have to provide to the one that are going away in the year. We have a charge this year, it's a one-off charge that will be an extraordinary cost. We will have the outflow during the time, in the next three years. Even more, sorry. [Non-English content]

It's positive both in terms of cash year after year and in terms of NPV. On the 787, we don't have a major impact. As you know, we are below five even today in terms of rate. Lucio Valerio Cioffi, who is supervising the division, can provide more details.

Lucio Valerio Cioffi
General Manager, Leonardo

Up to now, really, you have seen that Boeing announced a temporarily lower than five per month, and that will gradually return to current level announced. Really, we do not have a foreseen impact in the numbers that we had in our plan for the year. As Alessandro said before, we mainly remain at an average value of five per month without a real impact as soon as we will grow up during next year.

Andrew Humphrey
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Could I jump in with a kind of final one, actually, on the guidance? You've left your guidance in place despite, I think, what's a very strong earnings performance in Q2. The implication as I see it, if I take the midpoint of the full year guidance, is that second half revenue will be up about 2% on a reported basis year-on-year at the midpoint. That's clearly a kind of deceleration from where we've been in the first half, despite what one assumes to be easier comps in some of the businesses sequentially. Can you confirm that and say, are you being a little bit cautious on maintaining rather than raising that guidance?

Alessandro Profumo
CEO, Leonardo

Listen, since I started to manage the company, we have been always cautious. We have always beat the promises.

Andrew Humphrey
Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay, much appreciated.

Operator

The next question is from Martino De Ambroggi of Equita. Please go ahead.

Martino De Ambroggi
Analyst, Equita

Thank you. Good evening, everybody. One question is on the guidance. If it's possible to have a view on helicopters and aircraft ex Aerostructure for the full year in terms of operating performance standalone for helicopters and aircraft. The second is a general question on the Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan. I don't know if it's possible, maybe it's too early to quantify what could be a potential order intake for you, and if not, at least to have an idea what is the overall amount of the business you may bid for.

Alessandra Genco
CFO, Leonardo

Martino, I'll take the first part of your question. On helicopters, what we're seeing in helicopters is on the military and governmental business, which accounts for really 85%-90% of the total of the backlog, a strong delivery profile across all programs, very important programs that we have in the backlog. We do see continued support coming from that side of the business, coupled with a very resilient customer support that accounts for more than one third of the total turnover of helicopters. Where we do continue to see a level of flight hours, very significant applied fleet for the family and for the entire AW platforms, very sustained. Those are the dynamics. As we said, on the civil side, we see more engaged conversations on the VIP and on the medical EMS segments.

The others on oil and gas and utility remain subdued, we are a bit more cautious. Again, we have a lot to deliver on the military and defense backlog. On aircraft, let's remember that it's very strongly anchored on international programs, Eurofighter and JSF, where we continue to see solid order intake. On JSF, we're maintaining strong production rates and assembling aircraft for the Italian customer, for other customers. On the wings production, the rate is maintained, sustained, and we do see also additional business opportunities potentially coming through. On the Eurofighter, where you have heard about Quadriga in Germany, the 38 aircraft, there are a number of other export campaigns that the consortium is working on.

Combined with that, what we have registered in the first half of the year is traction on the trainer business, where the M-346 in particular has been confirmed as the leading platform for the training of pilots that will be flying on the 5th -generation fighters. That remains a key franchise business for us, well recognized. I will leave the floor now to Valerio to talk about the NextGenerationEU program.

Martino De Ambroggi
Analyst, Equita

Thank you, Alessandra. If I may, on helicopters, double-digit EBITA margin is a reasonable target for the current year. For the aircraft, is it possible an extra performance because of the deliveries of the Eurofighter program or more or less similar to last year?

Alessandro Profumo
CEO, Leonardo

Martino, it's important always to remember that you're always seeing the EBITA margin, but we are entering an incredibly large program where there is a huge pass-through in helicopter. You have to remember that. The EUR 3 point something billion of order from Qatar, on which we start with significant milestones. We have a work share which is slightly above 40%. The remaining, slightly less than 60%, were at the end of the day, which is terribly different. We like a lot this 60%, shall we say, 50% something percent, because we have a margin without committing capital. I think that we are a little bit to get out from this topic of return on sales, unless you incentivize the company not to grow.

Martino De Ambroggi
Analyst, Equita

Clear.

Alessandro Profumo
CEO, Leonardo

As you know, I prefer to talk of return on invested capital. I know that we are providing the number at the group level, not at the division level. We have internally all the numbers at the divisional level, but shall we say that it's not feasible today to communicate to the market. Again, what we are seeing, a significant growth everywhere in terms of return on invested capital. We like a lot to be the prime on large programs. Unless we'll be always a secondary player. I hope that I've been very clear.

Martino De Ambroggi
Analyst, Equita

Yeah. Very clear. Thank you, Alessandro.

Alessandro Profumo
CEO, Leonardo

Okay, thanks.

Lucio Valerio Cioffi
General Manager, Leonardo

Okay. The second question. Really, the NextGenerationEU, you provide a big set of opportunities, mainly positioned in the medium-term strategy. They play right to our core strengths and capabilities, as we said some months ago. We are leveraging on asset technology which we have inside our core businesses. Also, we shall keep our strong advantage from internal labs and the Leonardo choice to work on disruptive technologies such as the cloud, the HPC, the artificial intelligence. Really, we cannot quantify now which could be the impact, but we have a very large size of project with a significant number of projects already in place in order to be immediately ready. No formal tenders have been issued yet, so we cannot quantify, and we do not have a real number. We can cover all the cluster that we anticipated some months ago.

I don't want to be boring, but global monitoring for the environment, for critical infrastructure, digital public administration, logistics, space economy. The more we work on our internal capability, the more we found significant projects that we can apply and that we will apply as soon as the tender will be issued.

Alessandro Profumo
CEO, Leonardo

Okay. It's a rather difficult matter. More than difficult, it's difficult today to quantify. There are many areas on which clearly we are involved. Today, there is not yet any tender already issued, so we have to wait in order to see. We know that we have many different projects that we have presented related to the recovery fund.

Martino De Ambroggi
Analyst, Equita

Thank you.

Alessandro Profumo
CEO, Leonardo

That are mainly on the civil side, just to be clear.

Operator

The next question is from Chris Hallam of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Chris Hallam
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Yes, good evening, everybody. Just one question on cash flow seasonality. Cash has obviously outperformed expectations but remains very seasonal. I'm sure you've seen that several of your European peers seem to have been able to break that normal seasonal pattern and are now pointing towards a more balanced first half, second half split for free cash flow. I just wonder what you think has enabled them to do that as compared to the dynamics that you're seeing and the customer discussions which you're having, and whether in the coming years of the plan, we might expect to see lower seasonality first half, second half on the cash flow side.

Alessandro Profumo
CEO, Leonardo

I think that should be important to ask all these players what is the contribution of the domestic cash flow. We have the feeling that the government of the country where their base is anticipating some order in a significant way. Again, clearly for us, this is a priority to talk with all our customers. As you know, on the domestic business, we don't have upfront payment. We have the payments only when we have the advancement of the milestones. For us, it's slightly different. What we are seeing is that from the international customers, the number of anticipated payments is lowering. Since we are consuming the old anticipation, which are significant, for instance, the Kuwait anticipation has been significant. You remember the volatility we had year after year on the advanced payment of Kuwait when we started to consume this advanced payment.

We do expect a more stable trend, for two reasons. One, we don't have, in our pipeline, any other jumbo orders. Secondly, also the large orders, for instance, the Qatar order. It's not been significant in terms of advance payment. Which is bad when you start, it's good when you deliver, because you have the cash flow more aligned with the WIP. It's relatively positive. You can be sure that we have an incredible focus on moving from order to cash in. Again, the problem is that usually it's better the electronic business than the platform business. We have two platform businesses, which is relatively large. They are relatively large, we are also working a lot with all our customers in order to analyze the procedures and to see if we can have a more stable cash flow stream during the life of the order.

Unfortunately, what I've discovered, it is not only the Italian governmental business or defense business, which is focused on the year end, because in many countries, the last months of the fiscal year, not in all the countries, luckily enough, the fiscal year end in December. There is a rush for contracts and payments.

Chris Hallam
Analyst, Goldman Sachs

That's helpful. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Nick Cunningham of Agency Partners. Please go ahead.

Nick Cunningham
Analyst, Agency Partners

Yes. Thank you very much and good evening. I wanted to ask two things, both about aeronautics. First of all, on Aerostructures. It's obviously very good to hear that you're beginning to deal with the capacity issues. I wanted to look at the sites issues as well, particularly Grottaglie, because it's obviously such a single, specialized, very large site. I imagine that five 787s a month is probably using maybe a single shift on one of the lines. Is there a way of dealing with that? Are there other things that can go into Grottaglie, given how specialized it is, that enables you to use that overhead more efficiently, as well as just dealing with the headcount issues? The second question was about military aircraft, and again, very good to hear that M-346 and now M-345 are beginning to sell.

I'm wondering, can you give us some kind of rough indication as to what proportion of revenues are accounted for by trainers? Also what the visibility is, because I know in the past they tended to sell in small packets, if you like, and so you get some activity and then it stops, and then you get some more activity. I'm wondering how much visibility there is for a sort of steady base load of trainer activity going forward. Thank you.

Alessandro Profumo
CEO, Leonardo

I will start to answer for the Aerostructures business, then I leave the floor to Valerio. You are right. We have two sites which are mainly focused on a single program. One is Grottaglie and the other one is Pomigliano. Two different stories. On the ATR, as we said, we are very confident that there will be a good recovery now, 2021. We do expect clearly to be better than the previous year, at the ATR level, ATR level. In terms of production for us, we are utilizing also some WIP we had in the past, but we are managing properly the HR cost. We will see in the next years, a recovery.

Clearly, it depends also on, you remember that when Alessandro was talking, spent some words on the freighter model, it is something that today where a certain expected trend, maybe that this will improve furthermore because is an aircraft which is very useful for, shall we say, the electronic sales business of Amazon, Google or whatever it is. The other factory, which up to a certain extent is more complex, is Grottaglie, because it is focused on the 787. In Pomigliano, we have also some other capabilities. There is other business which can be done in Pomigliano. In Grottaglie, as we said, we are working in order to look for new activities, some new working package from existing customer and some working package from completely different sector. For instance, the yacht sector. The big question mark is what will happen to the 787.

Talking with the airline companies, everyone is saying that it's still the best aircraft in the segment, because in terms of operational cost, is the lowest. I'm sure that the program will be successful. It's a matter of time. As you know, from the fuselage 1400 05 or 06, we will have a different price, which has been already negotiated. I'm very confident. The problem is what will be the rate in the next two years. I'm very confident on the fact that this aircraft will continue to be a strong player in the business. Valerio, I don't know if you want to add something more.

Lucio Valerio Cioffi
General Manager, Leonardo

I think that mainly you said everything about the two sides. Pomigliano, as you said, is something that we can manage, in a simpler way, being ATR 50% under our technical also responsibility. We are pointing of new version, the Fighter. We are developing the short take-off and landing. We are also evaluating, which could be in the future, additional market in order to be expanded and have opportunities for ATR. Pomigliano has also some engineering capabilities and a sort of autonomy. At the same time, Grottaglie is true, what has been said, but you shall also remember that, if we come back 24 months ago, we were 14 ships per month, we were at the maximum rate.

We are trying to define how to diversify production, obviously, with a short-term impact, because in other case, we shall invest and there is not a short-term solution. We shall also consider that really our idea is that the rate of the 787 will grow and probably could also grow better than expected as we have now in our plan, really considering the product and the market.

Alessandra Genco
CFO, Leonardo

Okay, Nick, going to your question around military aircraft and visibility. On the military aircraft, the trainer, as we're saying, this year has had already the first half and is expected for the rest of the year to have a solid and strong order intake that will guarantee a stable level of production for the year to come. I'm speaking mainly about the M-346. That's clearly a production level that will be related to machines as well as to customer support. We also have to remember that we are coupling the traditional sale of aircraft with a new business line, which is the International Flight Training School, where we're actually selling flight hours. We are in a ramp-up phase, but we're signing up customers, we're signing up various air forces in Europe and beyond Europe.

This is good news because it's clearly going to fuel another avenue for stable growth for the platforms, as well as our ability, always increasing ability, to provide value adding services to our customers, which are very much sought after.

Nick Cunningham
Analyst, Agency Partners

Thank you. Thank you for the very thorough answer on Grottaglie. Just on the M-346, it sounds like you've taken a lot of orders, but the production hasn't really ramped up yet. Asking the question in a different way, what proportion of revenues do you see it going to for military aircraft in, let's say, a couple of years from now?

Alessandra Genco
CFO, Leonardo

Starting from the 2020 level, we do see an increase, in the next couple of years, which could be in the double-digit range. We also have to remember that the trainer market globally, compared to the fighter market, proportionally is a niche market. We can't expect the trainer market within the aircraft division to represent a major portion of the total turnover. It's a healthy portion that, again, coupled with customer support, stabilizes production rates and margins.

Nick Cunningham
Analyst, Agency Partners

Absolutely. It's nice if you own a big piece of that niche.

Alessandra Genco
CFO, Leonardo

I missed your question again, Nick.

Nick Cunningham
Analyst, Agency Partners

I said it's nice if you own a big piece of the niche. A niche market is good if you have a large percentage of it.

Alessandra Genco
CFO, Leonardo

Yes. We do feel that in the M-346, honestly, the platform is recognized as the leading platform. We have sold the M-346 in Singapore, in Israel, clearly to the Italian customer. We have been selling it to many other international customers globally, some of which we can mention, some others.

Alessandro Profumo
CEO, Leonardo

As well as Fighter Attack.

Alessandra Genco
CFO, Leonardo

As well as the Fighter Attack. We're expanding the suite of products with the Fighter Attack and fighter training versions of the platform. We see that there is really an expanded business opportunity to pursue, and we have started to capture the first elements and the first fruits of this market.

Alessandro Profumo
CEO, Leonardo

We are aware that we will have an incredibly strong competitor by the T-X, the trainer in U.S., when they will be. You know, we have lost the tender for a price issue. To be clear, if the price has been won, in our opinion, there should be a loss close to EUR 2 billion, which is very relevant, and I'm sure you won't be happy with this loss. This is the account we made. We know as well, there is already a 1-year delay, and we see if that won't be longer. In any case, our trainer today is the trainer of the market.

Lucio Valerio Cioffi
General Manager, Leonardo

We have also, as Alessandra said, we are selling the aircraft. Really, we are selling flight hours. At the same time, we have the opportunity to enlarge the market throughout the IFTS. IFTS, which is developed with Italian Air Force, can permit several countries to train on our platform and to understand which is the real advantage of the existing trainer and Fighter Attack, because it's a family, the 346. Really, at the moment, we have the best platform in the market with the best training system.

Alessandro Profumo
CEO, Leonardo

Yes. Valerio is pointing a key point. We are not only selling a platform, we are selling a training system. With the simulators and with all the elements that can allow to reduce dramatically the cost for the training, which is very important in terms of cost for the Air Force that want to train a pilot for a fourth, fifth, and sixth generation aircraft.

Nick Cunningham
Analyst, Agency Partners

Thank you very much.

Alessandro Profumo
CEO, Leonardo

Good.

Valeria Ricciotti
Head of Investor Relations and Credit Rating Agencies, Leonardo

Okay, we'll take two questions from the web, final ones. The first one from Celine Fornaro at UBS. She says, "Free operating cash flow was meaningfully better than expected. Could you please explain the main drivers behind this and how we should think for the second half as your guidance remains unchanged? Also, what level of factoring shall we assume for 2021, and was it a tailwind in first half? When would you think it would be appropriate to reconsider a dividend payment?

Alessandra Genco
CFO, Leonardo

Answering Celine's questions, well, we did have a strong first half of the year cash flow or generation. We reduced the cash absorption by EUR 500 million year-over-year. This is a result of all the actions we have put in place already last year, and that we are confirming for this year, prioritizing cash-ins on any other element. There is a laser focus across the entire group at program level, from delivery of platforms to customer support, delivery of services on cashing in. We have programs from orders to cash to expedite cash-ins. Leveraging strong relationship with customers and incentivizing the sales force on cash-ins and not only on sales. That is what we're seeing. For the full year, we are on track to deliver the target that we have with the EUR 100 million of cash generation.

There are, as you can appreciate, significant cash-ins that we have to bring home on a number of contracts. As usual, we are heavily weighted to the fourth quarter in cash generation. We'll continue to maintain a strong focus on cash-ins, and we are on track to deliver the target. On dividends, I think it's a bit early to discuss the dividend policy. We clearly want to prioritize the net debt level and the investment grade position, as Alessandro was saying, above any other item, in conjunction with this growth path that we have undertaken, both organic and inorganic. Dividends are part of the picture, and we'll have, I think, a better understanding, and we'll be better positioned to make a call once we'll have the new plan in place.

Valeria Ricciotti
Head of Investor Relations and Credit Rating Agencies, Leonardo

The final question, could you please help us understand if we should expect any impact from the Boeing 787 issues, or are they already within the guidance? It's from Ben Heelan, Bank of America.

Alessandra Genco
CFO, Leonardo

The effects of the recent announcements are, as Valerio explained before, basically factored into our production rates. There are no fundamental changes or impacts on the guidance.

Valeria Ricciotti
Head of Investor Relations and Credit Rating Agencies, Leonardo

Okay. As there are no further question, we just want to thank you for being with us today. The IR team is always available for follow-up.

Alessandro Profumo
CEO, Leonardo

Good. Many thanks. For the one of you who are in the U.S., have a good afternoon, the other one, a good evening. Thanks a lot. Bye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over. You may disconnect your telephones.