good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Hope you are all well. Welcome to our Q3 nine months twenty twenty results presentation. I'm Valle de Vizzati, Head of Investor Relations at Credit Agris. Today, our CEO, Alessandro Profumo and our CFO, Alessandro Genco, will take you through our progress during the first nine months of the year, the financial results and the outlook for the full year 2020.
And we will then welcome your questions. I will now hand you over to our CEO.
Many thanks, Valeria, and good evening, everybody. Unfortunately, we have the mask here because we are a bunch of people in this room, so we keep a strict respect of our roots. And clearly, I hope that everyone on the call is well as we are on this side. Before we get into the results presentation, I want to express my thanks to all our people at Leonardo for their commitment and the effort during these very time times, especially the successful efforts made by everyone to keep Leonardo operational and productive despite the challenging situation. We are pleased to be presenting a robust and resilient set of results for the third quarter and first nine months of this year.
These results are evidence of two key themes: first, how we have been successfully responding to twenty twenty short term challenges reacting promptly and effectively to changing market dynamics and taking actions to become even more resilient and more agile with strong results achieved in aircraft, helicopters, electronics in Europe and Leonardo DRS and second, how we can have strong confidence in our core business fundamentals and how we are well positioned for the medium long term terms. Also, see prolonged softness on the civil side. The bulk of our business is in the growing military governmental, which accounted more than 80% of our full year 2019 revenues and customer support and training, which is clearly one of the strongest areas we have. We have a proven ability to capture opportunities there and we can also leverage our key presence in international programs. Our significant order backlog at almost €35,000,000,000 is providing resiliency and visibility.
The operational machine has been performing quite well despite of COVID and you will see the numbers quarter after quarter. Productivity is continuing to increase and we have reacted well to an uncertain environment that we currently face. Anyway, to understand our business better, you need to focus on our medium term drivers and we have seen some very strong fundamentals that give us confidence here. So let me expand on these two very important things. First of all, the key theme how we have been successfully and effectively responding to twenty twenty short term challenges.
In the nine months, business overall performed very well in the current macro environment. Our main businesses, aircraft, helicopter, European electronics and DRS, have held up well and remain strong. Results show our response to the COVID challenges have been quick and effective, and we have proved we have flexibility and agility in managing these challenges. We have reoriented orders from export to domestic, receiving strong support from customers. We have immediately moved to cut costs, reassessing our cost base to respond to the crisis.
We prioritized our investment activities without delays in problems. We have reconfigured production lines to address COVID restrictions. We implemented the so called smart work, working quickly and effectively and continued our operations. And you will see as well some numbers that show that our quarter after quarter also the productivity is improving. We manage holidays extra time and shift in order to optimize per capita performance according to workload and business needs.
We have right sized areas of our business in line with demands in areas like helicopters in Boeing and ATR. We have remained commercially strong. Continued good order intake is underpinned by strong domestic orders. Helicopters are up by 41%. And this great support from our core domestic customers in Italy, U.
K. And U. S. Is a major strength of ours. We are also seeing positive signs in our international markets.
This remains vibrant and vital. And on top of this, our customer support and training activities have performed very rigidly, showing how our customer demand remains unchanged, notwithstanding the macro challenges and it is firmly anchored to our solid fundamentals. We have a stable top line, impressive in current conditions. Pipeline of of contracts remained positive into the year end with good performance in military and governmental business. We achieved solid results in revenues, substantially flat year on year.
Since the start of the pandemic, we have done a lot and we are seeing the results of being delivered from the actions put in place to get back to adequate level of productivity. We have seen a steady quarter by quarter recovery operationally. In terms of EBITA, we are down were down 75% in the first quarter versus first quarter twenty nineteen, but we have materially recovered throughout the following months and our EBITDA in third quarter is up 3% compared to the third quarter last year. Our EBITDA is supported by aircraft, helicopters, European Electronics and Leonardo DRS, which are partially offsetting COVID-nineteen effects and joint venture contribution. And if you take aircraft helicopters, which includes also a portion of CV business, Electronic Europe and Renardo DRS, then our EBITA would have been down 7.1% only in the first nine months and would have been up almost 30% in the third quarter, an outstanding result taking into account the challenging situation we are living in.
We are seeing higher productivity and we have an increasingly agile business. The system reacted promptly and the operational machine responded. We have resized for demand. Our reoriented our commercial effort, leveraging key pockets of demand. Productive hours are improving and recovering short form.
They were down 15% in the first quarter, while in the third quarter, they are down only 7% and we project 5% in the fourth quarter. A very good result also taking into account August that is typically a low productivity month because of holidays. Industrial efficiency at the September is almost back to normal levels. And our cost savings measures are bearing fruits with the results in line with the plan. Alexandra will be more detailed on that.
But in any case, we expect around €450,000,000 savings at year end in controllable cost plus level cost vis a vis our margin. On net investment reduction, we are ahead of expectations and this is providing further confidence on the support that these actions will provide us in the remainder of the year. We have strong liquidity and financial flexibility. Our cash flow profile this year, as expected, is heavily weighted to the final quarter. We remain fully focused on that and we have detailed plans in place that will deliver the strong fourth quarter on cash inflows required to support progress towards cash neutrality for the full year, as Alessandra will cover later.
We have also a strong financial position and we made it stronger over the past few months with no additional liquidity needs, no need to raise any additional equity and no short term refinancing requirements. We are also assessing the best options for where we have the most civil exposure, mainly in hydrostructure. Aerostructure is a high priority. Here, we started restructuring the business a few years ago and we were ahead of plan before the COVID pandemic. Now we are seeing more challenges due to COVID and travel bans, but we are working to address them.
We will be discussing with unions a potential furlough in this very moment and we are considering additional actions to reduce the overcapacity by reorganizing and internalizing some activities in order to reduce the entire cost base. We are enlarging our portfolio to add production in the seed feed as well as exporting our proven skills and capabilities also into adjacent markets. I'm referring to the use of composite materials for other application also outside the silica aerospace. So you can see how we have been successfully responding to short term challenges. My second key theme, we can have strong confidence in our core business fundamentals and how we are well positioned for the medium term of time.
There are a number of key things that make me confident of our future. First of all, our significant backlog and how our customers are looking for our services and products. Our backlog is amounting to 35,000,000,000 It is diversified across business and across international markets as well as national line. We have very good visibility of EUR 2,500,000,000.0 and we have continued to add to it. Second, our balance of military, civil and customer support.
Our business needs is a real strength. Civil slowdown is inevitable and we see prolonged softness here. But we have lower risk due to our strong weighting and presence in more resilient military and governmental customer support and services. With defense spending expected to increase in many countries mainly due to political tensions, look at other countries, even during the COVID outbreak, many of them have decided to increase their spending also launching new programs and accelerating plan one to support the industry, and I'm referring to France, for example, or Poland. And also Italian defense spending is up almost 6% this year, with procurement expected to be up 50%.
This is a consolidated trend across NATO and European countries. And we have a proven ability to capture opportunities domestically and internationally. Our business is further underpinned by very strong relationship with domestic customer. As I said, this is not just Italy, but also U. K.
And U. S. This year, their support has made up for export orders delayed by COVID restriction is in helicopters. In USA, Leonardo DRS has key strength in its close alignment with DoD priorities. It has been growing at more than the market average.
It enjoys additional opportunities expected in key programs like electric propulsion system and ruggedized computer or customer support activities. Then we have another great strength. We are ample in key international programs already running and in the future. Our key advantage here is that we can leverage our presence in both platform and system. Look at Eurofighter, a great example of our multiple strengths and at Viti, it gives us a lot of visibility of future activities just of yesterdaytoday the order extended by Germany on this program.
Eurofighter is a cornerstone of the development of Europe Aerospace and Defense Technologies. We, Leonardo, have a key role with both aeronautical components and onboard electronics. In all, Leonardo represents just over onethree of the value of the entire AFA program, Eurofighter, and over 60% of their launch. We recently won a contract in The U. K.
For the radar upgrade with additional opportunities for the upgrading of existing fleets. There are more than five fifty Eurofighter flying. The retrofits is very important because clearly, electronics is a sort of continuous stream of revenues because there are always upgrades. And we are progressing as prime contractor with a major wide contract for 28 aircraft. We are working hard on this program and our progress means we can mainly achieve revenue and cash flow milestones in the fourth quarter.
And we have further opportunities for both the platform and avionics in other countries like Germany and Spain. And don't forget the NH90 helicopter problem with a large order we booked in Qatar and the opportunities we are seeing here. We are part of Euromain, the program for the future surveillance capabilities, again with our platform and our sensor. And we are also part of the important centers program. All these international programs are expected to receive strong support and backing.
And we have a pipeline of opportunities already identified. And finally, our business is also underpinned by very high quality products in strong demand and growing customer support and training activities arming further resilience. We have a leadership position in key market segments like helicopters with very good products and resilient customer support and training business. For example, despite the 50% slowdown in civil OE, we are seeing only 15% slowdown in civil customer support because our helicopter fleets are flying and are used by our clients both in civil and military fleets. Our continued technological innovation leveraging our core competence is driving new business opportunities.
And all of this is giving us resiliency and competitive advantage across the group. So COVID-nineteen has just slowed down the speed and timing of our growth path, but we are fully confident in our fundamentals and our strengths that makes us very well positioned for the medium long term. And with this, I now hand over to Alessandra to run through the financial results. Alessandra?
Thank you, Alessandro, and good evening, everyone. You can see in the numbers for nine months results how we have successfully been dealing with the challenges of this year and how we see our self position going forward. Let me start with the key results highlights. You can see a very resilient and top line performance with EBITA steadily recovering quarter over quarter, while free operating cash flow is reflecting some pressure from COVID factors. Importantly, we achieved a commercially strong performance through the nine month period despite COVID with very strong domestic order intake balancing lower exports.
Revenues at EUR 9,000,000,000 held up well and in line with the same period last year, supported by our solid backlog of EUR35 billion plus growing activity in major contracts like IFAP weight and other key areas like Leonardo D'Aresa. EBITA at €497,000,000 is steadily recovering quarter over quarter. It is down 28% year over year due to COVID effects, lower level of productivity and lower CV deliveries and materially lower joint venture contributions from ATR and Space manufacturing. Free operating cash flow was negative €2,600,000,000 in the nine months as expected. This is due to the usual seasonality plus higher short term cash absorption during the COVID period with increased working capital and inventory buildup mainly in military and governmental contracts and some postponements to other rights of cash ins.
I will explain more on this later and how we expect to unwind it with increased cash ins waiting to Q4 that we have expected. Operationally, we have been impacted by the effects of COVID-nineteen pandemic, but we're clearly seeing the benefits of the actions taken quickly in response. And we are seeing a positive improvement and recovery quarter over quarter. Let me now walk you through the key metrics. Our order intake has remained commercially strong, 8,500,000,000, and it reflects the core strength of our domestic military and governmental business.
It's a strong performance for the group in the COVID period to achieve the same level of order intake we achieved last year. The big highlight is Helicopters. Here we achieved new orders in the first nine months of EUR 3,200,000,000.0, a substantial increase of over 40% of last year, driven by higher domestic military and governmental and customer support orders such as the integrated marine operational support for The UK, the AW169 and our new exploration and escort helicopter for the Italian Army. And the first order for 32 TH-73A helicopters for the U. S.
Navy trainer contract we won. Electronics Europe achieved new orders of EUR 2,200,000,000.0 including orders for the next generation radar for The UK Eurofighter that Sandro mentioned before. DRS continued its strong and healthy commercial trajectory with new orders of EUR 2,300,000,000.0, including additional orders for the U. S. Army mounted family of computer systems.
Aircraft's order intake was €772,000,000 Remember, last year had benefited from significant orders for the M-three 45 trainer. This year we won new orders for the F-thirty five, the C-27J and the IFA programs. We experienced some delays in progress in export campaigns mainly due to the impact of travel bans. Then in Aerostructures, we began to see the effects of reduced OEM activity given the seeding market environment. But overall, a strong group commercial performance and we are seeing a pipeline of demand and export opportunities that gives us confidence in our future and full year targets.
Moving on to revenues. Revenues in the nine months were EUR 9,000,000,000, flat year over year. We are seeing a solid performance across the group with our major EVAP weight program ramping up and Leonardo DRS continuing successfully on its growth. Helicopter revenues of €2,600,000,000 were down 3.4% and we saw lower seating deliveries and lower volumes on some programs because of COVID. This was offset by good activity on customer support and on NH90 Qatar program plus other military and domestic military governmental domestic contracts.
Electronics Europe revenues were flat at €2,700,000,000 with expected volume growth slowing down because of COVID. DRS grew revenues by 6.4% to EUR 1,700,000,000.0 with higher volumes and activity relating to the upgrading of equipment for the U. S. Army. Aircraft grew revenues in the period to EUR 1,700,000,000.0, an increase of 13.4% with the ramp up of the major IFAP wave contract more than offsetting other production slowdown caused by the virus.
In Aerostructures, revenues fell to EUR630 million primarily because of production slowdowns in the B787 and the ATR program set. So overall, a stable top line in a challenging period. Next, EBITA profitability. Here, we have been successfully improving operationally quarter by quarter despite the lower contribution of our joint ventures, ADR and Space manufacturing and despite COVID. As we have highlighted in Q1 and Q2, our profitability this year has been impacted by COVID with slowing down of program execution, lower productivity and deliveries, but we have reasons to be more confident.
Recovery productivity as you've heard from Alessandro is taking place and it is accelerating. Plus, we are seeing the benefits of our quickly implemented actions to reduce costs, which we mentioned before. We can see the evidence, cost reduction plus lower sickness rates from COVID and making up ground during August holiday period are increasing our performance and offering the positive trajectory, which underpins confidence in the fourth quarter targets. Looking at the nine month results, our EBITA was €497,000,000 and profitability at 5.5%. These levels have been supported by robust and resilient military and governmental activities and customer support and training.
Overall, our business has held up well and performed resiliently throughout challenging COVID period in aircraft, helicopters, Electronics Europe and the Atlanta DLS. COVID has had an impact, but we have managed our cost base down through good work in the nine month period. It is bearing fruit and we have seen productivity rise. Labor costs and controllable cost savings to date are in line with the target and we expect for the full year total saving in the range of €450,000,000 Net investment savings to date are approximately 60 percent and ahead of expectations. All of this makes us confident to achieve all our targets for the full year.
However, we have also seen a drag from joint ventures that has continued to impact our group performance. ATR is facing very tough challenges and is seeing a more significant drop in activity and deliveries. ATR achieved only one unit delivery in the nine months of 2020 versus 29 delivered last year. And we are seeing prolonged softness here as experienced by all the other OEMs. At the same time, our Space manufacturing joint venture has good order intake and opportunities going forward, but it has been impacted by lower revenues and higher costs, competitive pressures and COVID factors.
We continue to review with our partners and co shareholder the situation and undertake appropriate restructuring actions. Now moving to the below the line items, you can see that the first nine months EBIT was EUR $395,000,000 reflecting the decline in EBITA and non recurring costs related to COVID-nineteen actions amounting to approximately EUR 60,000,000. Our net result was affected by EBITA performance and slightly higher financial charges associated with a higher volume of FX hedging. Meanwhile, our free operating cash flow was negative almost €2,600,000,000 in the first nine months. It is reflecting the usual seasonality amplified by higher working capital as expected.
We experienced a higher cash absorption from increased working capital and buildup of inventory, mainly associated with finalization of program milestones in military and governmental programs that have shifted to the right and to a lesser extent by delayed CV deliveries. We also registered lower dividends from joint ventures. The increased working capital and significant inventory buildup is associated with military and governmental programs, we expect this to unwind over the coming months. More specifically, in aircraft, it relates to major programs such as EFAB wait, which is ramping up and cash receipts are timed for later this year. In Helicopters and Defense Electronics for international and national programs.
Finally, in Civil Helicopters because of delayed deliveries and the need to reconfigure production to address the changing market. In this area, let me highlight that all machines have a defined customers and there are no white tails. We were already expecting this higher negative cash flow because of anticipated higher seasonality this year with the cash profile of major programs. And we are seeing the second half weighting being increased by coal and more inflows being shifted to the final months. I will later talk about the full year.
Moving to the next slide, we maintain a very strong liquidity position despite this short term swing in working capital and cash flow and COVID impacts. We have multiple sources of liquidity, which we can use to meet our financing needs even in stress case scenarios. It means we have a solid financial position and liquidity remains strong at about €3,600,000,000 We have no refinancing needs in the short term and no need to raise capital. We also have a balanced debt maturity profile. In July, issued a five year bond, 500,000,000 of value, underlying the solidity of our creditworthiness in the financial markets even in exceptional times such as the one we're living through.
So as said before, we do not have any refinancing needs until 2022. Now I want to cover how we currently see our outlook and the full year. As you have heard, we have shown resilience and we have remained commercially strong. We have continued to achieve good order intake and we have maintained a stable top line, thanks to very strong demand for our products. Then our actions put in place to get back to adequate levels of productivity and delivering results.
We have seen clear signals of recovery in Q3. Productive hours improvement, Good result also taking into account that August is typically a low productivity month because of the holidays. Industrial efficiency at the September is almost back to normal levels. And the recovery in productivity and savings coming through the actions to reduce costs, both labor and controllable, is leading to a reduced P and L hit from under recovery compared to the half year. All the indicators are in line or ahead with our expectations.
At our half year results in July, we provided you with an updated estimate for full year results. We're continuing to progress well towards our full year objectives on orders, also thanks to ongoing commercial campaigns. This reflects very strong demand for our products and reinforcing our confidence in the long term opportunities for our business. We are also progressing well on revenues, supported by the delivery of our backlog and the advancements on programs milestones. Our EBITA, as I said before, is supported by military and governmental plus customer support and trading activities across the group.
It's supported by productivity improvements and cost control measures. And these trends we have seen so far confirmed our confidence in our full year EBITDA guidance. We remain laser focused on free operating cash flow. We have detailed action in place to address cash ins on every single program and achieved the full year target considering the exceptionally high concentration of activity in the last two months of the year and COVID related restrictions. Let me go through this in more detail for you.
We're working hard to finalize contract milestones, new contracts with associated advanced payments and support customers in taking delivery of our civil aircrafts and finally, to monetize government receivables. As of October, we made significant progress in terms of cash ins on key programs. Now more generally, going forward into 2021, we continue to see a strong pipeline of opportunities domestically and internationally across the group. We will continue to execute and deliver our backlog of major programs where we are prime and our military and governmental business and customer support will confirm to be strong and resilient. At the same time, Seated business will continue to be affected by the slowdown resulting from travel restrictions.
Now to conclude, I'd like to summarize Leonardo's solid business fundamentals. We have a strong backlog of EUR35 billion to leverage on. Our business mix is a real strength with resilience from our weighting towards military, governmental and customer support. We can leverage opportunities in growing military governmental markets and we have very strong domestic customer relationships. We are anchored in key international programs today and future.
We are investing in innovation, leveraging our competencies and products to enlarge business opportunities. And we have a leadership position in key segments of Helicopters, Defense Electronics and Aircrafts, well recognized in international markets at the base of our successful exports. I will now hand over to
And the first question from the phone lines we have is from Alessandro Rozib from Mediobanca. So Alessandro, your line is open.
Sorry, I was on mute. You for taking my questions. Strong results on the earnings side. Probably the cash flow, there's a bit more work to do in Q4 to get to the year end guidance. You mentioned some cash ins in October.
But I was wondering if you can give us a bit more color on the level of cash in that you expect to receive in the coming months, November and December, whether the bulk is due to the December or whether you already seen those cash in? Also, I think you referred several times to military campaigns. Believe during the pandemic, they've been suspended because of the travel restrictions, but looks like they are moving ahead. I was wondering if you can give us again a bit more granularity on what types of opportunities you see and whether as we look at 2021, do you expect the business of Leonardo to grow in terms of revenues? I know that it's probably too early to have a quantitative guidance for next year.
But I was wondering in terms of qualitative whether you expect a growth in top line into 2021.
Okay, Alessandro. So on starting from the last question, what we are seeing, we are now in the process of building to take it, do want to take it?
Yes. As Alessandro was saying, we are in the process of building the budget. Clearly, it's too early to confirm a number. We continue to see a positive trend in the business. We were talking of as the key driver of our company, which is Uncharted Helicopters Electronics, both Italy Europe and DRS plus aircraft.
We have to understand what will be the impact on the CV business on the other side. But again, the numbers we are starting to see makes us confident on a positive trend.
Sandro, on your question on cash ins throughout the last quarter of the year. As we have talked before, the buildup in inventory that we have recorded in our nine month result is mainly associated with military governmental contracts, in aircraft and they are related to one major contract that you well know in which we are prime and as such it is more it can happen that we are once there is a slowdown in contacts with the customer, physical contact also with customers, It's natural that the shifting of the milestone towards the right occurs. Then there are some buildups in helicopters, which are associated with also large programs we're working on in a variety of smaller contracts. And for minor part on the civil side for deliveries that, as we said, do have a clear and definite customer name associated and there are no white tails. And in Defense Electronics, again, military and governmental contracts where we are experiencing delays in finalizing the milestones.
Very simply put, in order to have the final testing and certification of the products that we are selling to our customers and be able to invoice, you need to meet with your team and the customer team and do the final testing and certification. This is clearly somewhat more challenging in the COVID times. However, we are experiencing significant progress. And as we said, in the month of October, significant events have taken place that drive us to believe that we are well positioned with a very detailed plan, which follows every single program with a very tight schedule addressing the top priority for the group, which is achieving the free over cash flow target.
And on the Kuwait EFA contract, has there been any meaningful shifting in the milestones since the last update in Q2?
Well, I mean, in Q2, as you may recall, we have been in the ability to move around and travel has been limited. As always, this is a function of how much as Italians we can move and or British or Americans we can move and what kind of movement are allowed in the destination countries. So I wouldn't say that in Q2, there has been anything specific happening. Clearly, what we are experiencing is a natural movement to the two last months of the year in terms of finalization of contracts. However, again, we are very actively dialoguing with the customer who also understands the need to finalize and complete the final stages of the programs.
So it's really a very strong concerted effort from Leonardo's team as well as from the customer side. And hopefully, if the situation on COVID restrictions will be maintained as it is today, we will be able to hit the target. Okay.
And on the military campaigns, whether you see those moving proceeding ahead now a bit faster?
Sorry, which campaign? We've not understood.
Military campaigns.
Listen, we are working on different many different areas, both in Italy, U. K, U. S, but not only in the military field. I have to say that clearly there are problems in traveling, we have also made negotiation ongoing at
the
international level in the military field. And we think that we signed some new contract before year end, not again in the domestic countries. So COVID is still there, but we are seeing a different approach today with all the problems we are seeing. But the customer are more proactive. They started to negotiate also not in person but in video calls and so on and so forth.
So we are seeing a more normalized world despite of COVID. So and clearly, this makes us confident on the guidance that we gave you before.
All
right. That was very helpful. Thank you.
Thank you. We now have the next question from David Barker of Bank of America. So David, your line is now open. Please go ahead when you're ready.
Good evening, everyone, and thanks for taking my question. Just a quick one on free cash flow, just a follow-up. I just wanted to confirm, are you expecting any big step up in civil deliveries in Q4 to get to your guidance, so civil helicopter deliveries and then also ATR? And then I guess digging a bit more into ATR, you've obviously only done one delivery this year. Have you got any new forecasts you can give with us for 4Q?
And then just finally on ATR more broadly, I mean the deliveries this year have obviously been much weaker than other large civil aerospace programs. When can we start thinking about a recovery in that business? Are we seeing and are we seeing customers actually canceling any of those aircraft?
Listen, I think that we have to split civil programs in helicopters and civil programs in aircraft. Clearly, civil program in aircraft, we have seen the declaration of the CEO of Boeing or Airbus. So and we are related to them. Clearly, our trend is very related to what will happen in their business. And we are seeing that they are saying, it will go back to normal in 2023, 2024.
So this is what we do expect. Maybe that there will be some anticipation if it's really difficult to forecast because if Avastin will be found soon, maybe that things will be better than expected. If the vaccine will take longer time will be longer. In any case, we know perfectly that longer flight will be reduced because for us we have learned that we can do something in Interior Conference. So there will be less business travel and for sure less touristic travels as well.
But it's difficult to foresee. I think that today they are stating the worst case. In civil helicopters, clearly, there is a slowdown. You will see you have seen the numbers. We are less worried because Encoptix is a very resilient business where we have as well EMS, we have other activities, the military programs are quite solid.
The club is very good. The customer support business is incredibly strong. I remember correctly, we are slightly above 40% in terms of customer support or close to 40%. So it's an impressive number. And you have to consider that the value of the customer support is incredibly higher than any other business because it's a sort of annuity that when you sign a contract, then you go ahead for many years.
So EUR 1 or EUR $1 in customer support in peso value is significantly higher than EUR 1 in the OEM business because you have the continuity of this flow of revenues. So at the end, the key topic is what will happen to the commercial airlines for us when we are talking of CV business. And also seeing what's happened to other infrastructure business like Spirit and so on, I think that we have an impact, but we are on end to the market.
Can I just follow-up on the implications for the cash? So I just wanted to check. So obviously, you've got a big balance to do in 4Q. And I want to understand, are you assuming a big step up in the number of deliveries in 4Q versus 3Q for ATR and for civil helicopters. So is there any risk to your assumptions if you don't do those deliveries or you're not assuming a big step up at all?
So basically, what I thought I'd like to know.
I think I see where you're headed, David. I mean, on we are seeing a step up versus one unit to deliver that's to be taken for granted, But we're not seeing a material step
up
in the number of deliveries. On helicopters, again, these helicopters already have a client assigned. So our clients want to take delivery of the helicopters. The question is whether they will be allowed to travel to Verjati to get a hold of their beloved helicopter. I think they're going to do and work their hardest to make this happen.
In many event, as Alessandro was saying, because of the wide and balanced mix of deliveries to different customer bases that Wassa Westbank has. We do not have a specific concentration in the pure civil domain, in particular in this year. So there are there is no specific concentration risk.
Understood. So essentially in 4Q, you're not expecting a big increase in cash contribution from ATR or from civil helicopters?
We are seeing a positive step up, but not a material huge contribution. Really, what makes a difference in the cash ins is the unwinding of the buildup in inventory associated with milestones for governmental and military programs. This is really what we are planning to see unfold. Some of these contracts are also associated with the finalization of ICA finance ICA supported ICA guaranteed financings. And as usual, the lawyers are working very hard and they're negotiating very hard.
We're that they will come to an agreement. And others are just mere fact of having people get on-site and do what they have to normally do, the normal procedures and final testing to make things happen. Now what may have happened in the last few weeks also is that someone from the testing team turns out to be positive, positive to COVID meaning. So you have to take out that member of the committee of the testing committee and replace him or her with someone else. So that is clearly extending timing.
Unfortunately, this is the time of high volatility we're all living through.
Fantastic. Really appreciate the color. I'll get back in the queue.
We now have the next question from the phone line from Martino De Ambroggi from Equita.
Thank you, everybody. Sorry to bother you on the free cash flow issue, but it's much higher than the used to be in the historical Q4 data. Just to qualitative additional comment. So you are confident in achieving it maybe because you are more prepared than in Q2, probably because clients are more open to discuss with you knowing the difficult time or restrictions are less stronger than before? Because the jump in free cash flow is really, really huge.
So just to understand at least if there are big differences compared to the Q2 pandemic.
Well, Martino, I hear your point and the theme you are raising. I think it's a combination of all the things you have said. We feel that in the present status, six tanti dos regos, with the current situation on COVID, with the current restrictions in place, we are certainly more prepared. We are definitely very, very hungry to get to the finish line. Our customers want our products because they want to fly in those products, they want to upgrade platforms, they want to protect their lands with our products.
So it's not just Leonardo wants to get the cash ins by the end of the year, they also want to use what we're selling. And clearly, this is we understand the magnitude of the step up is material. There are some large programs and large contributor to this delta. One clearly is eFAP weight. So that is making the number larger and potentially more scary in a good way.
But on eFAP weight, we see that also in this case, the customer is we are having constant dialogue with the customer. The customer is very focused on progressing on the payment schedule because he knows that we have been investing in this work in progress, also paying our partners such as Airbus and BAE. As you know, we serve as prime. So one of the responsibilities of the prime, as we've said multiple times, is to step up and face the customer and also absorb the swings. So this is one classical situation, which we are absorbing the swings because we have paid our suppliers and we're waiting to get paid by the customer.
Okay. Thank you, Alexandra. And the second question is on the other structure. If I take Q3 stand alone, can you say this is, let's say, normal profitability for this business? Or can it be even worse going forward?
Natino, we couldn't hear you very well. On Aerostructure, what was your question again?
Yes. On the Aerostructure, I hope you can hear me. The Q3 spend alone performance, maybe taken as a reference point going forward in terms of losses or can be even worse going forward? And always on Aerostructure, you mentioned some diversification initiative, but I suppose it will take quite a long time before seeing some positive impact.
To have a look to the year numbers when because, for instance, in the third quarter, and we are very clear, there is a one off for the closing of the TAT program, which is positive. So the third quarter is not the right mean in terms of results. Talking of diversification, we have but I've already always said that we have a very good capability and strengths in the composite business. You remember that I always said our structure to have two key elements. One a relevant Boeing contribution.
Today, clearly, the $7.87 is down, but it remains the key program for Boeing. We have to remember that. So soon or later, they will go back to normality because the seven thirty seven will restart clearly. But the seven eighty seven, which is the most efficient aircraft for long flights, international flights remain clearly a key. And the other key capability is composite.
On the composite, we are considering and we are analyzing the different opportunities. We will come to the market with clarity when we will have solidified some of this discussion we are having is important because since one of the main critics is you are only a mono customer product and activity, we are working in order to not to be anymore in this situation.
Okay. And very last, you mentioned also additional actions on cost cutting. I suppose this will be a 2021 event and not for the current year where the €450,000,000 are confirmed.
Sorry. We always we have been always very clear on the cost cutting. This cost cutting are mainly related to the COVID event. So we blocked all the travels. We have blocked all the new hiring.
We have blocked all the incentive schemes. Clearly, we hope that we will go back to a normal life where people can travel when where the results are as good as we'll self pay the incentive schemes. But this cost base will remain if the situation will remain the actual one. I hope that they have been clear enough.
Yes. I thought there was something new coming. But okay.
As we said, we are and have been very clear that we are opening a discussion for law.
We now have a question from Nick Cunningham of Agency Partners. I
hope you can hear me clearly. I'm really sorry, I'm going back to the cash flow because obviously, 2,500,000,000.0 of free cash flow in Q4 is unprecedented. And I suppose what I really want to focus on is, is the risk around that purely about timing? Does it come in, in December or does it come in, in January? So that's question one.
Question two, what is the degree of variation that's at risk, if you see what I mean? Is it €100,000,000 either way, euros 500,000,000 either way in terms of what could slip over the period end? And also, in that context, the guidance for cash flow is heading to neutral. And what does heading to neutral mean? Is that plus or minus 200,000,000 Something to prepare ourselves to understand the degree of risk would be really helpful.
And then final question, again, back to the cost saving point, CHF $450,000,000 or so, and particularly also your cash flow savings on things like CapEx. Presumably,
some
of that has to bounce back. Even before you get a full recovery in revenue, some of that has to come back. So is there a degree to which costs have to go up year on year in 'twenty one compared to 'twenty sort of almost automatically? Thank you.
Okay, Nick. Well, let me start with the last question, so we introduce a new theme compared to cash flows. So on cost savings going forward after 2020, as Alessandro explained before, some of these cost savings are contingent on the current situation, and we expect not to have been forced to use them next year, the situation should recover next year. Nonetheless, it's too early to tell, meaning that there is going to be a portion of those costs which will be permanent. The way the travel expenses will, I think, never go back to the level that we have seen in 2019 because we are now operating in a different way and we have learned to do without a certain portion of travel at every level in the organization.
On labor cost, there is a portion of the variable compensation that we have taken out as Sandoz said before. Now we're not planning to repeat this in 2021. However, we do not have yet a view on what is the growth path for the group in 2021 and what is required to make the business sustainable. So I think on the cost cutting side, we have to adjourn the conversation and the situation once the budget will be more clear at every level. Let's also include the fact that this year besides the cost savings, we are also an important contribution from net investments, while maintaining the level of investments for the development of our key programs and platforms, we are accelerating the cash in of grants of those investments reducing the cash flow impact.
Now to your question on cash flows, Nick, so timing, it's a matter of timing. I mean, we're not debating whether this inventory will be unwound or not. It's a matter of whether we will be able possible to unwind it all by the December 31 or whether a portion of this may occur in 2021. So it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of timing. Again, we are working our hardest to make this happen by the December 31.
And in that respect, to address your second question, we have not run any sensitivity on potential slippages of contracts. This is not the mood of the organization. What we're doing now is we are all growing in the same direction and targeting at every division level, the target that the division has with no assumption of what would be another scenario. We have two months of hard work ahead of us. We're not losing any moment.
Again, the customers are supporting us and helping us. We will need also a little bit of general luck because clearly that never hurts. And in circumstances like the one we're living through, that is, I think, a contributor that we want to bring to the table. From our end, I can reassure you that we're doing our best. In the organization is working the hardest from the commercial team, the contract managers, the legal and financial team when there are financing required and we are just doing the best we can.
Clearly, some situations are easier than others. And so on some, there is a very high level of confidence. On others, the level of confidence is medium. But that is always the case this time of the year.
Thank you. Yes. And just to suppose it creates a certain amount of stress between equity markets and your or what equity markets want and what your internal needs are because, obviously, you want to drive the business to get the cash in. But then equity markets get very hung up about that year end target, which in the end doesn't really matter because if the cash is going to come in a week later, in many ways, who cares? But I suppose the difficulty is in communicating in that context.
I mean, in any case, it's good cash. That's what I mean. It's like, yes, I mean, I understand, we would like to get it by year end because it's always the sooner you get paid, the happier you are. Nonetheless, if this was not the case because COVID restrictions may impair our ability to go through the finish line, they will come next year. That's for sure.
I mean, is going to be lost Because again, we're talking about activities, buildup of inventory with a customer behind those activities. So there is no inventory looking for a customer.
Understood. Thank you very
much. Sure.
We now have the next question from the phone lines from Andrew Humphrey of Morgan Stanley.
I'm not sure there's too much left for me to ask. Maybe Kash from a slightly different angle. I mean you mentioned a major military program where your prime work clearly the ability to meet milestones with COVID has been somewhat compromised. I wanted to ask the kind of Q4, basically, 2,500,000,000.0 target. Can you tell us anything about other government contracts where there may be challenges on cash?
How would you characterize those? Are they kind of pandemic related? Are there kind of other things going on with other military contracts other than the big one that we've all been discussing? Secondly, you highlighted improving fixed cost recovery over the course of the year as being a contributor to better profitability. Could you flesh that out a bit and tell us what parts of the business you're seeing better production in than you might have expected.
Is that in part driven by maybe slightly better production rates in civil aero than we had been thinking about in April or May? Or is it something else? And then finally, your commentary around cost savings, you've obviously segmented that between controllable costs and investments and the like. So the kind of bucketing of that around controllable costs, in particular, is slightly different what it was earlier in the year. Should we interpret that as a sign that some of those saving targets are sort of moving around between buckets even if the headline target overall is staying the same?
Andrew, let me address the last question first. No, I mean, the bucket, we thought it was going to be easier to communicate one single number, but if it's making things tougher, let me detail and break down that number for you. We always said that the cost base for HR was approximately €2,900,000,000 And out of that cost base, we were planning to have savings in the range of 10%. Controllable cost base was around €1,400,000,000 and on that we had a target between 1015%. So if you apply those figures to those cost base, you will end up around $4.50 if the math
So no change basically?
No change, just maybe more synthesizing and summarizing one number. On the recovery improvement, fixed recovery improvement, well, what we have seen is a higher number of productive hours. You may recall in the first quarter and in probably half of second quarter, there was an issue. The first quarter in particular, the last few weeks in March, because Italy was the hardest hit nation, I would say, in the world possibly. Clearly, our employees were just not coming to our sites.
It was impossible to make them feel safe in the work environment. So the lack of productive hours, the fact that people were not on-site or were not producing was a drain in cash in fixed cost absorption. The situation changed in Q2 and it almost normalized in Q3. Clearly, there is a little bit of a difference between the Aerostructure world where the number of productive hours has not increased just because of lack of demand. While in the rest of the world, productive hours have gone up because demand was there and we actually had to speed up to try to recover at our best the completion of the milestones of activity that then once tested and finalized with the customers will be invoiced and finally cashed in.
So I understand it's a long pipeline. There are many events. Basically, the first day was in our activities. We delayed our activities because we have fewer productive hours. So we were not ready to present our milestones to the customer.
And then it was challenging to get together with the customer because of travel restrictions and because of what I explained before, the fact that sometimes in the testing committees, there have been people testing positive to COVID and therefore, there had to be changes to the committee members and then starting again from scratch. I hope this helps and addressed your questions.
Yes. Very, very helpful. Thank you.
We now have a question from Sean Steuart of JPMorgan. I
have three quick questions, please. The EU Electronics business performed very strongly in Q3. I think you did a 14.6% margin versus 7.7% last year. Can you just tell us what was driving this performance and whether there were any one offs at all? And then secondly, could you please share how much receivables factoring you plan to do in Q4 this year and what that figure was in Q4 last year, please?
And then thirdly, could you give us any guidance on what we should be expecting in terms of nonrecurring and restructuring costs for the full year? I think you booked 81,000,000 for the first nine months. So just any color on the full year would be great.
It's not 31%, it's 20% plus 60%, which is different because restructuring costs are $21.60 percent are partially related to COVID costs. So it's not correct to define as restructuring costs. So, Alessandra. Then one thing on the quarterly results of electronics. As you know quite well, electronics were a significant they have significant programs where there is a pass through.
And if you book in one quarter, for instance, a contract for a combat management system where there is a subcontractor of EBITDA, you have a relevant dilution of your contribution. This is the reason why on a yearly basis, we present the numbers with and without pass through. Because we like to have a huge contract with pass through, for instance, in a bit out there, Because we always said that it's a €3,000,000,000 contract where we have a prime role and the weight for our work share, which is slightly above 40%. Clearly, on the 40%, we have a certain contribution. On the 60%, we have a completely different contribution.
So if you consider the 40% of the total, you have a different number. This is exactly what is happening with defense electronics, where we have in general line of business relevant pass through. So it's better
to
consider an average on a yearly basis and to consider the number with and without pass through that we can provide you later on. On the cost, Alessandra, you can give more detail on the restructuring cost and COVID cost.
Well, yes, the restructuring costs that you see are associated with the readjustment of the operational base that we mentioned. The helicopter division in the Eurobuild side has done a restructuring of its operations to size it better to the current updated environment. And also, DRS in The U. S. Has gone through some minor restructuring plans.
On the nonrecurring side, those are costs related to COVID, including sanitization of all facilities as well as personal protective devices like the mask we're all wearing or the sanitizing gel we are all using. So that's what's recorded on in that line. On the receivable factoring, in full honesty, we do not have a figure in mind for the full year. A lot, I'm sure you appreciate, will depend on the speed in which those cash ins that we have discussed thus far will come in. Clearly, I would expect to see a higher amount of factoring compared to a normal year because this is not a normal year.
But should we be thinking about sort of billions more, 500,000,000 more and then just in terms of order of magnitude on the factoring?
I mean, honestly, hard to tell now because some of these cash ins, as we said, if they're being met by December 31, there's no factoring. Otherwise, there might be factoring. So it's quite I'd love to be more helpful, but unfortunately, very much of a situation that is evolving week after week.
Yes. And then just sorry, just on the non restructuring and the nonrecurring and the restructuring costs. Any sense as to what it might what you plan in Q4, what we should expect in Q4 and then just for the full year in terms of guidance?
I mean, as of now, we're clearly on a continuing basis, we'll continue to record these kind of costs related to COVID in that line. And clearly, year ends, we will reassess everything. As of now, nothing else specific comes to mind, but we will update on we will get updated on this point for the year end figures.
Okay. Thank you very much.
The final question we have from the phone line comes from Harry Breach of MainFirst. So Harry, your line is now open.
Yes. Thank you. Thank you very much for taking my question. Good evening, Alexandra, Alessandra, hello, Harry.
I can just ask a little bit about Aeronautics tonight. Firstly, when we think about ATR, last year we had 68 deliveries or around that, I think if my numbers are right. We've had one delivery so far this year. Clearly, they must be building up a lot of inventory. Can you give us a feeling of the delivery expectations for ATR?
I appreciate thinking about this over the next few months might be difficult, but where do you think it can recover to in 2021, in particular, in 2022? Next question is just helping us to understand a little more on July. We have clearly gone through Boeing adjusting its rate plan, production rate plans on July. Can I just check with you, is it still the case under your global settlement that the repricing takes effect in 2022 and there's no delay on that? And second question, we learned last week that Spirit's pricing on July, shipset pricing has some variability according to volume.
Does your July shipset pricing have any sort of volume variation? Do you get better price at lower volumes, anything like that? And then very last one is just, Alessandra, I think last time you spoke at half year, you said that you expected the breakeven, the cash breakeven for aero structures to be delayed beyond 2022, 2023. Can you give us any update how you're thinking about when Aerostructures get to cash breakeven, please?
I will start to answer because, as I said before, today, what we are seeing are the forecast in terms of passengers and travels made by the authorities and by the main OEM. So today, it's very difficult to forecast the deliveries in the next two years, mainly because we have to work on what is said by the customer. You are talking about seven eighty seven, for instance. On seven eighty seven, we know that they will go down to six in terms of rate, monthly rate. We know that we are obliged by the contract to keep a capability of 14.
So because if suddenly, say, we provide to 14, we can't say we are not capable to provide you. So it's a very complex situation that we have always to keep in mind. This is then on the $7.80 seven, we have a variation of the price as it ships at $14.00 6. We have been always very clear on that. Today, are slightly above $119,100.
So it depends clearly on the monthly rate we see in the future. But as I said, today, we have an official communication, which is public and better than us. By Boeing, they are down 2.6% up to 2022, '22, yes. Then they will go up to eight, ten and then back to 12 and not to 14. This is the ramp up.
We have an obligation of keeping a certain capability in any case. So this is very relevant on our side. The $7.87, in terms of of cash, today we are also repaying the loan they gave us in order to be the Brutale. So one thing is the operative cash flow and one thing is the cash flow for the program because we have a repayment of all the financing. We have also read on the media, we don't have any official communication, that remember that Boeing was considering to launch a new MMA, it was called the medium sized aircraft.
Now they are considering to have not technically, I'm saying, a scale down of the seven eighty seven. So to reduce the dimension of the seven eighty seven and to substitute with the seven eighty seven the new aircraft that they have decided not to develop. Clearly, in this case, for us, would be good. But today, it's mainly media news not official communication. In the case, this would be very good for us because the technology is our technology.
On ATR deliveries, in the long run, ATR is a turboproft for which we do see still an overall need worldwide of between seven hundred and eight hundred aircraft and for turbopropods as I mentioned. And there are no competitors. So sooner or later, we will go back to a normal number between 60 to 70 per year. We don't know when. Why we don't know when?
Because ATR is mainly an aircraft owned by small airlines because they are regional transportation. The small airlines had a significant financial problem with COVID. So it's very difficult for us to say this next year will be X71Z. We know that the program is a good program because, again, there is no competitor today for regional transportation between in the range of 500 kilometers. So this is incredibly important.
We are also handling the mix of 42 versus 72. We have the cargo model, which is incredibly important and we are delivering just now the first one. You know that we have another by FedEx. And we are also developing the short coffin landing, which also is very important because with the short coffin landing, there will be other 500 new airports that we can serve with this aircraft. It is an impressive number.
In the 42 model that will be short takeoff and landing. For this market, we do see again more or less 700 aircraft in the next twenty years. We are considering to have a market of above in the range of 20%. We are very conservative of this market. It is more or less between 140 to 160 aircraft.
So the business case is working quite well.
Okay.
We'll take the final question from the web. And basically, how do you expect the current additional restrictions or partial lockdowns in Europe to affect your business? And how do you expect defense spending in the future in light of large government deficits due to COVID?
What we are seeing is that due to COVID, unfortunately, there are as well many political tension which are arising. So till now, what we have seen has been a growth in terms of defense spending. In U. S, we do expect a plateau. We have been always transparent independently from who we win the election.
And but in any case, DRS continue to take market being a very proactive second tier. So we are very well diversified. Italy is important for us maybe for development of new programs, but is in any case not the largest customer we have. So we are not worried in terms of our market share on the total procurement for defense worldwide, if worldwide affects some country where there are restrictions. The COVID, the actual increase of COVID, as I said before, clearly, this is reducing the mobility not so much vis a vis what it was now.
Because as we have seen, the lockdown is very different country by country. So we continue to have people traveling for some very specific negotiation. We are negotiating as well via video conference. We do not expect an impact. And as you know, in this lockdown, even in what are called red region, for instance, in Italy, there are no economic no industrial activities which are closed.
In the first lockdown, the industry was considered as strategic and remain open. Today, all the industrial activities are open. It's a problem for shops, restaurants, so that's a different story. Clearly also, we are following very carefully the evolution on therapy and on vaccine, which is important in order to understand how the 2021 will develop.
Okay. Thank you, everybody, for being with us today. And as usual, the IR is available for any follow-up.
Many thanks to all of you. Bye.