Good evening. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome, and thank you for joining the Leonardo first quarter 2023 results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Valeria Ricciotti, Head of Investor Relations and Credit Rating Agencies. Please go ahead, madam.
Good evening, everybody. Thank you for joining us today on our first quarter 2023 results conference call. Valeria Ricciotti, Head of IR and Credit Rating Agencies. Today, our CEO, Alessandro Profumo, will take you through our progress during the first quarter of this year. Our CFO, Alessandra Genco, will take you through the Q1 financial results and our outlook for the full year. We will then welcome your questions. With this, I will now hand you over to our CEO, Alessandro Profumo.
Thanks, Valeria. Good evening, everybody, or good morning, if you are in U.S. Thank you for taking the time to join us today. Let's start with the key points about our first quarter results and our recent progress. We are pleased to announce results we show a good start to the year, on track with continuous strong commercial momentum and financial performance. In further evidence of what we have said recently in March, we have continued to deliver on our promises with growing commercial success, strong delivery, and execution, making the group stronger, more resilient and sustainable, and importantly, in a better and stronger position to capture new opportunities.
We have continued to step up and accelerate our commercial performance, achieving very strong new order intake of EUR 4.9 billion in the first quarter, up 29.3% on the first quarter of last year, adjusting 2022, excluding the contribution of GES. This is excluding any jumbo orders. With a book-to-bill at 1.6 times. We have continued strong program delivery and grown our top line, with revenues in the first quarter of EUR 3 billion, up 2.6% on a perimeter adjusted basis.
Delivered solid EBITA, with a strong performance of EUR 119 million, up 4.4% in our business division class DRS, reflecting the perimeter adjustment and excluding the expected soft start to the year of our strategic joint ventures, which were down EUR 21 million year-on-year, but are expected to improve during the year. Please note that the first quarter is normally the smallest contributor to the year. We have again improved our free operating cash flow to EUR -688 million in the first quarter, up almost EUR 400 million on the same period last year, confirming the good progress we are making on improving our cash generation. Our net debt is down EUR 1.1 billion versus first quarter 2022, at EUR 3.7 billion, firmly progressing on our deleveraging plan.
First quarter results confirm the strength of our main group defense and governmental business and the continuing recovery in Aerostructure. We are on track and are confirming the guidance we have set out recently for the full year 2023. Moreover, two days ago, we have also finalized the disposal of the smallest ATM business unit in U.S. In summary, in the first quarter, we have continued to deliver and showing that the group is stronger, more resilient, sustainable, and is better set up to capture best growth opportunities.
I'm also very proud to say that Moody's has just today upgraded Leonardo to investment grade, recognizing a strong execution through the pandemic, the deleveraging track record, solid growth prospects in defense activities in light of a tense geopolitical context, and conservative financial policies with a commitment to further delever the balance sheet. You know, the investment grade is one of our key targets set in the industrial plan. As you know, my own experiences on, in Leonardo is coming to an end. After six intense and beautiful years, and we should say fantastic years, that have been filled with strong purpose and immense fulfillment. I will pass the baton to my successor, aware of having contributed to building a stronger company over these years that is capable of facing the future with a long-term perspective.
It has been an outstanding experience, both personally and professionally. I thank you most sincerely for the wonderful journey we made together. With this, I want to hand you over to Alessandra to run through the first quarter results in more detail. Alessandra.
Thank you, Alessandro. I can speak for myself as well as for everyone in Leonardo in thanking you for the very significant contribution to Leonardo over the last six years. We have so greatly valued your leadership, direction, and purpose. It's a month and a half since we set out our detailed full year 2022 results presentation. As you know, although Q1 is important to us, as we look to start the year in the right way, it is, as always, our smallest contributor to the full year. It's important to bear this in mind. We had a strong end to last year 2022, and we have made a good start to this year, continuing our solid path of growing commercial success and increasing new order intake, strong program delivery and strengthening of cash flow.
With Moody's upgrading Leonardo to investment grade, thus recognizing results achieved, our increased financial strength and the solid outlook. Q1 results are in line with our expectations when we recently set out our guidance for the full year, confirming the strength of our main core businesses, with continued strong demand for our products from defense and governmental, supporting both our order intake and growing top line, and the gradual recovery path in Aerostructures being on track. Let me show you the key highlights. Order intake of EUR 4.9 billion, stepping up 29.3% from Q1 2022, adjusting 2022 to exclude the contribution of GES, which was sold by Leonardo DRS in August 2022. This performance does not include any jumbo orders.
We're leveraging on our strong growing backlog, driving growth in revenues at EUR 3 billion, up 2.6% year-over-year on a perimeter adjusted basis. Group Adjusted EBITA at EUR 119 million, with a solid performance from key business divisions, up 4.4%, excluding the expected lower contribution in the quarter from our strategic joint ventures, which were down EUR 21 million year-over-year. Pre-operating cash flow improved by almost EUR 400 million to EUR -688 million, in line with plan at this stage of the year versus EUR -1.1 billion last year. Our net debt is decreasing year-over-year, confirming our laser focus on the leverage. We also confirm our strong liquidity position and our recent full year guidance. Let's now look at key group metrics for Q1. Starting with new order intake.
We saw a particularly strong quarter with orders at EUR 4.9 billion. Up 29.3%, adjusting 2022 to exclude contribution of GES. Helicopters delivered an excellent performance, more than double new order intake year-over-year to EUR 1.9 billion, with an acceleration in the first quarter due to phasing effect, including orders for 18 AW169 for the Austrian Ministry of Defense, 13 MH-139 for the U.S. Air Force, and a number of orders on the civil side, mainly related to the AW139. This provides further evidence of the civil side steady recovery. Helicopters is clearly benefiting from its leading market positions in both defense, governmental as well as civil, and we also saw some orders being accelerated by customers in oil and and gas.
Defense electronics again achieved good order intake with just over EUR 1.6 billion in Q1, up almost 10% on last year, growing in all business areas, both in domestic markets, including orders for the Italian Army and on the export side, including for the supply of defense systems for the Philippine Navy, plus logistical support. We saw more orders in the Cyber division. Leonardo DRS also achieved good order intake, almost EUR 700 million, up 5% in line with expectations, and won additional orders for the U.S. Navy new generation Columbia-class submarine program for the supply of electric propulsion components. It also booked orders for the supply of infrared countermeasures for the U.S. military.
Aircraft order intake was solid at EUR 731 million, slightly below last year, with Q1 2023 orders for the logistic components of Eurofighter, as well as orders under the JSS program. Aerostructures showed some improvement with new orders of EUR 126 million. Overall, a very strong quarter in new order intake with a book-to-bill of 1.6 and increasing our order backlog to now just over EUR 39 billion. Revenues. We have continued our strong program delivery, leading to Q1 revenues of EUR 3 billion, up 2.6% on a perimeter adjusted basis. Helicopters Q1 revenues were EUR 808 million, slightly below last year, reflecting a phasing effect and lower contribution from NH90 Qatar. Defense electronic revenues rose 9.5% to over EUR 1 billion, continuing to delivering on its backlog.
Leonardo DRS revenues were slightly lower at $569 million, up year-over-year, excluding GES contribution and also reflecting a strong performance in Q1 last year due to a non-recurring step-up in the Columbia-class program. Aircraft had a solid revenue performance, slightly lower at $559 million, delivering on the Eurofighter Kuwait program and other programs. Aerostructures increased its revenues from $121 million to $151 million as volumes increased. Turning to EBITDA and profitability. We delivered in Q1 group EBITDA of $105 million or $190 million adjusted excluding for the contribution of strategic joint ventures and HENSOLDT. Up 4.4% versus last year, and noting that Q1 is normally the smallest contributor to the full-year profit.
We saw solid performances from our main businesses, with further gradual recovery in Aerostructures and a soft start to the year from our strategic joint ventures and HENSOLDT, as expected. Helicopters improved EBITDA in the first quarter to EUR 38 million, up 5.6%, and Defense Electronics EBITDA was EUR 88 million, with a solid performance and strong profitability. Lower contribution from MBDA due to the very strong comparator last year. MBDA's underlying trends, however, remains very positive and we remain very confident for the full year. Leonardo DRS reported EBITDA lower at EUR 31 million. Slow start as expected due to business mix, as first quarter 2022 benefited from a non-recurring step-up in profitability on the Columbia-class program. Going forward, we expect growth to accelerate throughout the year.
Aircraft reported EBITA of EUR 54 million, up 3.8% on last year and confirming the robust profitability on its defense business. Aerostructures showed gradual improvement and reduced its loss in the quarter to EUR 40 million, compared to EUR 46 million last year and in line with the recovery plan. ATR's contribution in Q1 was lower, down from EUR -10 million last year to EUR -16 million. The company faced some short-term challenges related to supply chain and skill shortages, which are common with other companies in the sector. That said, we feel encouraged by ATR's recent new order intake, its growing backlog, and its improving market outlook, confirming their expectation of higher deliveries by year-end versus 2022. The contribution from space was also slightly lower at EUR 1 million, down from EUR 6 million, while the satellite services segment continued to perform well.
In the manufacturing segment, on the other hand, we had some R&D extra costs impacting EBITA, and we're working with our core shareholder in Thales with a view to improve its performance in the future. As we have already discussed, EBITA reflects the perimeter effect and the lower contribution in the quarter from our joint ventures as we had expected. In particular, we are seeing a soft start to the year in HENSOLDT, MBDA, ATR and space manufacturing, as we have already discussed. Overall, the negative contribution accounts for EUR 32 million, of which EUR 11 million due to perimeter effect and EUR 21 due to joint ventures. Moving on to the below the line items, you can see EBIT of EUR 93 million, reflecting the EBITDA and the effect of PPA amortization linked to the acquisition of RADA.
A net result of EUR 90 million, also reflecting the performance of equity account and holdings in line with expectations. It's worth noting that including the perimeter adjustments and excluding the performance of joint ventures accounted for in EBITA, net income was almost in line with last year, EUR 54 million versus EUR 56 million. We have also made a good start to the year in cash flow terms and again improved our free operating cash flow. In Q1, the usual seasonal outflow was lower at EUR 688 million, corresponding to an improvement of almost EUR 400 million over the previous year, on track and in line with our plan.
This is in part due to continued strengthening of our cash flow with improved working capital and operating performance, much reduced factoring and a lower level of seasonality. It's also in part due to concentration in the quarter of cash-ins on milestones.
To be clear, these are receipts related to the delivery of existing programs and are not advanced payments on new order intake. This improved cash flow performance makes us comfortable confirming our full year target of increasing free operating cash flow to circa EUR 600 million. We're strongly committed to continuing our deleveraging process with net debt down EUR 1.1 billion versus Q1 2022. We're very pleased to announce that today, as Alessandro mentioned before, Moody's upgraded Leonardo to investment grade with stable outlook. The upgrade reflects the strong execution through the pandemic, the solid growth prospects for the defense business in the current macro environment, and the track record of deleveraging we have performed with a commitment to further progress in this direction, maintaining a stable shareholder remuneration and strong growth prospects. Now, moving to guidance.
You have seen in Q1, we have made a good start to the year and we are on track with our expectations. Our main businesses in defense and governmental are delivering strongly, and the year has started well, especially in orders and cash flow. We are pleased to see the good progress in Q1, and we're confirming the full-year group guidance that we recently gave you at the time of our March full-year results. As we previously said, it is based on our current assessment of the effects of the geopolitical and macroeconomic environment on supply chain, inflation, and the global economy, and assuming no major deterioration. You can see it here on the slide. We expect this year continuing good commercial momentum and strong new order intake. Top line growing as we leverage off a solid and growing backlog.
EBITA improving, leveraging on higher volumes and driven by efficiencies to balance cost pressures, plus the recovery of our joint ventures. Growing cash flow driven by the defense and governmental business, more than offsetting the cash absorption in Aerostructures, which is itself gradually improving. As we said in March at the full year presentation, we are laser focused on deleveraging. We expect year-end debt to decrease to approximately EUR 2.6 billion, thanks to cash flow generation, while continuing to maintain a constant shareholder return. To conclude, we are pleased with the start of the year, while remembering that it's early in the year and it's only Q1 and our smallest quarter. We are on track, and we're delivering our plans in line with our full year guidance. Q1 was another quarter of delivery, with solid performance across all key metrics.
A quarter where we saw further growing commercial success and stronger financial performance. We're confident of our path forward. Thank you all. I will now hand over to the Q&A.
This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at any time. The first question is from Alessandro Pozzi from Mediobanca. Please go ahead.
Hi there. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. First of all, I would like to say, the goodbye message has been received, and I wish you, Alessandro, all the best for the next endeavor. We have a couple of questions on HENSOLDT, and I was wondering, of course, they haven't really reported Q1 yet, but I was wondering if you can give us maybe a bit more color on the weakness that we've seen in Q1 and what we should expect for the rest of the year.
Perhaps, it's been a year since you completed the acquisition of the stake, and I was wondering if you can give us an update on how Leonardo benefited from this stake other than, of course, for the share price. The second question is on working capital, which usually seasonally you have a large build in Q1. This year was much smaller than what we've seen a year ago. Compared to a year ago, can you point to where the working capital to the main moving parts of the working capital, where you've seen the largest progress? Thank you.
Sure, Alessandro. I will start with the second question. On working capital, as you have correctly pointed out, the absorption to 2023 was smaller than ordinarily. This is the result of the continued progress that we're making in working capital management and cash flow generation, started two years ago with, as you can appreciate, quarter-over-quarter progress throughout 2021, 2022 and continuing into Q1 of 2023. Q1 of 2023 also had a concentration of cash-ins on milestones on existing contracts that were finalized in the quarter and that were reflected in the free operating cash flow. With respect to HENSOLDT performance, Q1 performance in HENSOLDT is fundamentally stable.
What you see reflected in the figures is, and the adjustment, is the fact that last year in Q1, we did not include HENSOLDT Q1 performance because of a misalignment in financial calendars between the company and Leonardo. That's why you see that we are basically taking it off when we make a like for like comparison. I will now leave the floor to Alessandro with respect to HENSOLDT part two.
Yeah. HENSOLDT, as we said, also during the year-end presentation, we have presented to the Bund a cooperation plan on which we continue to deliver as expected. We are quite satisfied with that. The relations with the company and mainly with the German government are very positive. As you were saying, Sandra, also not considering the share price, which in any case is significantly above the purchasing price. I remember you that we paid at EUR 23 when the stock was EUR 16. Today the stock is close to EUR 33.5. Is a completely different situation.
Irrespective of that, we are even more sure than when we bought the stake, and that strategically has been a right move.
Thank you. Just a follow-up on the working capital. What was the factoring during the Q1, please?
No factoring, basically.
All right. Thank you.
The next question is from Victor Allard from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for taking my question. The first one is sort of a follow-up on the previous one on free cash flow. You already gave some color. Thank you for this. We're just wondering in terms of inventory build, how should we think about the coming quarters? Is that too simplistic to think that it's been also like a tailwind for you in Q1? The second question is in defense margins. If you could help us understand margins in DES. It seems that year-over-year you have had like a tougher comp last year.
You mentioned mix and fixed cost, I was wondering if inflation was a headwind in the quarter or anything that we might miss. The last question, if I may, is probably more at a high level in terms of how you what do you make of the recent comments in terms of some of your European peers, which said that we need to see more consolidated defense industry in Europe? I guess as a side, where to this is if you could share your views in terms of portfolio, and if there is any update on that one in particular, thinking about defense. Thank you.
Victor. Free operating cash flow and trends. Free operating cash flow, as mentioned before, is significantly better in Q1 2023 versus last year as a result of all the action that the group has undertaken and that continues to deploy positive effects. You see this performance confirmed quarter after quarter. What we are experiencing in Q1 is a progress of the steps undertaken in the past few quarters. With a concentration of cash-ins, with milestones, contractual milestones achieved in Q1 2023 with associated cash-ins from customers, which are also a driver of this performance. Not on new orders. We're not talking about customer advances, but progress payments on existing contracts.
Over the course of the year, we continue to see good trends in terms of improvement of year-over-year cash absorption. On margins, I want to make sure that I heard your question correct. You are asking about defense electronic margins or in general, all the division margins? Could you repeat that question for us, please?
Yeah, probably thinking more about, Europe DES.
More defense electronics Europe? That's what you said?
Yes. So, for context, I was trying to understand if the lower margins that we're seeing in European, you know, DES was mainly a result of having a tougher comp last year with positive mix and fixed costs. Is there like anything else that we should think about as we think about, you know, the coming quarters? In particular, I was thinking if inflation was a headwind in the quarter when you sort of closed the quarter. Thank you.
Okay. Thank you, Victor, for highlighting the question. Actually, the performance number that you see in Defense Electronics Europe is reflecting also the effect of MBDA and HENSOLDT. That is basically the driver of the delta, because in reality, the defense electronics division in Europe for Leonardo has a profitability which is increasing year-over-year. It's increasing both in terms of absolute value and percentages. Therefore, the trend is impacted by the joint ventures. I think, yes, there is a page in page 8 of the presentation that speaks to the fact that Defense Electronics Europe is up year-over-year.
Okay. Thank you. Possibly like one last question, if you have any thoughts to share on, some more high level.
Consolidation. I've been always very transparent on that, in the sense that in my opinion, during the time, some further consolidation is needed, mainly because of the fact that all the countries are increasing the defense expenditure. The quality of this expenditure are not improving. In the sense that we continue to have a duplication of non-recurring costs, for, in order to develop platform and systems that are differentiated in Europe. The issue is that, in my opinion, before adding an industrial consolidation, we must have an improvement in terms of coordination of the requirements within the defense system.
If we have a common program and then one country do have a certain requirement and another country do have a different requirement, you have a consolidation, but you don't have any improvement in the way you spend your money. We have some very clear example with that. We've been always very transparent with the political world, saying, give me that, the politicians will press on the defense system in order to have a better coordination of the requirements. I think the GCAP will be a first important example in this direction. The consolidation can happen at the program level or at company level.
In my opinion, doesn't make any sense to put together companies that are in different domains, the eventual consolidation has to happen in business lines. I think that MBDA is a very good example. It's an example of consolidation in the missile domain. After some years, we have a development which is very well organized at country level in the sense that there are not any more duplication within the different countries. Making a long story short, I don't think that something happens soon.
Thank you very much.
The next question is from Virginia Montorsi from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, thank you for taking my questions. First of all, just wanted to thank Alessandro and wish you good luck for whatever's gonna come next. In terms of my questions, I just had two quick ones. First one would be on HENSOLDT. There's been an article on Reuters quoting the CEO of HENSOLDT saying that they might be interested in acquiring part of your defense electronic business. Just wondering if you can share any comment on that. Second question would be on DRS margins. I think you've been quite clear on what's happening Q1. Just, could you give us any color on how to think about margin progression for DRS for the next quarters up to full year? Thank you very much.
Many thanks, Virginia. I think that the declaration of Thomas was an unfortunate misunderstanding in the sense that I'm sure that he was not thinking to an eventual acquisition of our defense electronics. We always said that during the time, we think that there could be a combination of our defense electronics with HENSOLDT, but is conceptually different from an acquisition. I hope that I've answered in a very clear way.
Yeah, this is very clear. Maybe just on the DRS question on margins.
Sure, Virginia. Yes. DRS margin progression, we do see a progress consistent with the usual yearly trends. What you see in the first quarter is an unfavorable comparison because last year, Q1 2022 booked a revision of margins on an important program and a one-off increase in the car, which over the course of the year will clearly smoothen out. What we do see is a progress in increase of profitability that will lead to a margin year-end higher than the full year 2022 margin.
Virginia, it's important to say that when we are talking of DRS, this program, which is a very important program on which the first, I don't know how to call, delivery was a sort of experimental. In the second one, there has been a repricing for the first one as well, because usually when you have this such kind of program, very relevant, you have a price adjustment system in U.S., where with the second installment, second delivery, they repay all the extra cost for the first partially, the extra cost for the first one.
Why it's very important, first of all, because we have been successful. Secondly, because this is a program, is the Ohio Replacement Program of which we spoke in the past. We cannot provide details because it's a classified program, but we said of this program. There will be a sort of continuity because there are many submarines of such a class. This technology we think could be applied as well on surface ships. In reality, we become an incredibly relevant profit-making program for DRS. Is very, very difficult for the DOD to switch to another supplier because the risk implied in the program were relevant for us, and they are behind our shoulder because we have been successful.
For any other ways that should try to enter in the program, there will be all the risk. Be clear?
Thank you very much. Yes, thank you both. Very clear on both questions.
The next question is from Monica Bosio, from Intesa Sanpaolo. Please go ahead.
Yes, good evening. Can you hear me?
Yes, quite well.
Yes. Thanks for taking my question, and let me join to the other participant in thanking Alessandro and wishing him the best for the future. Coming to the question, I was wondering if we can elaborate a bit on the free cash flow absorption of the Aerostructures business in the first quarter of the year. By year-end, I'm modeling an absorption in the range of EUR 250 million. I was wondering if you can just give me some flavor on this and if maybe there's room to do a little bit better. I know that the achievement is back-end loaded, there is an increase in production rates from the clients buying.
Monica.
Yes.
Monica, I'm sorry. Before leaving the floor to Alessandra. I do understand that you have a second question. We always said that we have a guidance of EUR 600 million in terms of free operating cash flow for the year, including Aerostructures. We have not provided the number for Aerostructures per se. As we always said, we will become positive with the fuselage 1407. This is what we said, and we can say on Aerostructures, so we cannot say anything more.
Yes, I fully understand that you do not give a guidance on the full year for the Aerostructures. In 2022, the free cash flow absorption was close to EUR 300 million, if I remember well. This year should be a little bit lower. I was wondering if you can give us some flavor on the first quarter of the year, if it is significant. If not, no problem.
Monica, we always said that slightly better, because as you can imagine, we have an improvement because we have a higher production rate.
Yes.
We have a slightly better contribution. The real change will be with the fuselage 1407. Again, the EUR 600 million are including everything, as we have said in the first quarter presentation, we are seeing a signal of improvement, which are very evident from the revenues you are seeing. We cannot say anything more because we've been always. I think that in terms of free operating cash flow, in reality, we are doing better than the previous year, better as well of the numbers at the beginning we had for the first quarter. We have seen the reduction in terms of debt. Year-over-year, it's almost EUR 1.9 billion, which is not bad.
We have been just upgraded by Moody's. I think that our credibility is relatively relevant.
Okay. Got it. A very, final question is on the order take. The first quarter was 10% above our, my estimates and 15% above the market expectations in term of order intake. The guidance has been confirmed. Is there room, to have a better, view going forward? It seems to me that the commercial performance is really, really strong, especially for helicopters.
Today what we said is that we confirm the guidance. It's too early to say if what you will do better of the guidance eventually. We have to remember, last year we made EUR 17.3 billion of orders with a big order of EUR 1.4 billion.
Yeah.
In reality, if you want to compare like for like is 15.9 vis-a-vis 17 of guidance because there are no jumbo orders. Clearly, we started quite well. We have a positive feeling, but we cannot say anything more. It's too early to say if this is an anticipation of other orders or if this Again, we have a very positive feeling. The commercial structure is working very well. To say today we change the guidance is too early.
Okay. Got it. Very clear. Thank you again.
The next question is from Martino De Ambroggi from Equita. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good evening, everybody. Sorry to bother you on the net working capital, just to try to figure out if it's temporary or how much is structural and so on. Could you quantify the amount of milestone that you got in Q1? If I understand correctly, 0 down payment from a new order intake. Still on working capital, what is the assumption embedded in your full year guidance for net working capital?
Martino, what I said is that the underlying trends in working capital reflected in Q1 2023 are the same as those that we have experienced throughout 2022 and throughout 2021. This gradual progress in working capital reduction and better working capital management. What I did say is that the cash ins, the largest portion of the cash ins are associated with milestone payments, which are progress payments on existing contracts. There may be, you know, some down payments, which are the usual down payments that we have throughout the year and every single quarter of the year. Nothing extraordinary. What I meant, to be very clear, is that there's nothing extraordinary in this cash performance associated with advances on new orders.
There are natural flow of cash-ins deriving from progress of activities on existing contracts that were invoiced to customers and paid by customers.
Okay. Networking capital, embedded in full year guidance?
We are not inclined to provide guidance on working capital, but we can reassure you that the EUR 600 million of free operating cash flow guidance is confirmed.
Okay. The second question is on the order intake, because you specified twice during the presentation that the order intake doesn't include any jumbo order. Based on your feeling, when do you expect the NATO countries military spending will become more visible or will materialize in jumbo contracts? Is it a 24 event or maybe later?
You know, we definitely do see some orders related to NATO throughout the plan time. We do not forecast any specific order in 2023. Having said that, for example, MBDA booked a EUR 2 billion+ order for short range air defense in Poland a few days back. Clearly, you know, this is very specific. What we can say is that in our guidance for the EUR 17 billion of order intake, we have not included any jumbo orders associated with large opportunities deriving from a NATO or the NATO countries.
Okay. If I may, a last question on the joint ventures contribution. I don't know if you are willing to share piece by piece, but overall in your EBITA guidance, the ATR, MBDA, HENSOLDT and DRS contribution that you have in your guidance, could you quantify, if not one by one, at least globally?
Okay. What we can say to help you, Martino, is that DRS, as you have heard also from Bill Lynn and his team, is guiding towards an increase in EBITA year-over-year 23 over 22. From the joint venture, we will see a progress year-over-year, which is anchored depending on which joint venture we're talking about on the solid fundamentals of defense business, as we've just commented from MBDA. On ATR, recovery of the commercial market anchored on a strong backlog. On TAS, we're working very closely with our joint venture partner, Thales, accompanying the company TAS in important development programs which require a lot of focus.
Okay. ATR will be positive this year.
As you suggested, we will not be providing guidance on individual joint ventures.
In any case, we should be positive.
Okay. Okay. All the best, Alessandro.
Thank you.
Many thanks. Many thanks to all of you, because all of you are making me the best wishes. To be honest, being from the south of Italy, I'm making a signal of nothing good, I should say in the sense that I'm in a very good health and I'm very positive. I'm sure that I will be The future, maybe not working with you but working. My wife who have a different perspective, she's saying, you have to spend time traveling, but so I'm very positive. Many thanks to all of you.
The next question is from Gabriele Gambarova from Banca Akros. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you for taking my question. Just one about defense electronics. And I'm sorry if it was addressed before, but what are your, let's say, what is your understanding of the industry in Europe? Because we saw some interesting statements from the CEO of HENSOLDT, for instance, and even you in London back in March were pretty vocative about this. Any thought on this ongoing process would be.
I think that we have been always very clear. There is an ongoing process, which is the cooperation agreement and the way you work together, creating value for both of us, I would say in a very positive way. Mainly working with the customer of HENSOLDT with our customer, adding value one to the other in the way we cooperate. As you know, HENSOLDT is mainly a producer of sensors, and so it's not strong in the system integration. We are quite strong in system integration. Thanks to that, they can, for instance, provide new services to the German Navy or the German Land Forces. Having said that, we always said that we have a strategic perspective with HENSOLDT.
Clearly this has to be realized in accordance with the German governments and our governments as well. Leonardo will remain the consolidator of the business in the case there will be a second step. We will see when and when mainly because is for us, revenue here can be realized. Today, we are not in the condition of talking of that because as I said, that is not only in our hands. In any case, we are very positive before I clearly the defense electronics is a key business for the platforms.
There is a lot of value for Leonardo in having the platforms and the defense electronics, because, for instance, the avionics of our new helicopters are completely developed internally, which is an incredibly incredible value added. Since all of us we are talking of system, of system, in Leonardo, we are capable to have the platform and to create the system of system. Which is not the case for many other competitors, because or they have the platform or they have defense electronics. Not necessarily they have both. We think that as Leonardo, we have a specific strength, and we are sure that this will be at the base of the future value development of Leonardo.
Okay. Thank you very much. Very clear. If I may, just a last question on the AW249, the new attack helicopter for the Italian Army. There is, I think a second and maybe a third prototype. I was wondering if you are considering factoring in any kind of contract on this on this platform for for 2023. Thank you.
We have development contracts because clearly in order to develop a helicopter, we receive money from the defense system. Now, I think that the major contracts were in 2022 more than this year, because now we have two prototypes, and we are pretty close for the 3rd one. They are flying. It's a fantastic helicopter. I've seen that many times flying. It's impressive what it's capable to do. Now, we have to speed up the certification process. We are working hand in hand with our defense system.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Sorry. Sorry to interrupt you. When before I was saying of the avionics, for instance, the AW249 is completely developed internal, in terms of avionics, which is really an incredible value add.
Understood. Thank you. Thank you very much.
Many thanks.
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I don't think there are further questions, so thank you again. Many thanks to all of you since you have more or less all of you made me the best wishes. Before I was joking, really, I'm always very positive, so I'm sure that Leonardo will continue to grow and to perform well. At a personal level, I'd like really to thanks all of you. It's been a fantastic journey. I think that Leonardo is one of the jewel of the Italian industrial base. I'm grateful to the government for what they allowed me to do in this six years.
I'm grateful to all of you that follow the company in a very positive way. Again, thanks also to the analysts, because we are a complex company with many divisions, with many variables. I know that for all of you, it's not easy to create a model on Leonardo. I hope that in these six years, we built as a company, not on the personal level, a reliability on what we have done and what the company will continue to do. Thanks a lot.
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