Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. Thank you for attending Mediobanca Capital Market Day. We are very happy to share with you the strategic guidelines and the main targets for the next three years. Consistency, growth, delivery, responsible banking, the key features of our history and the key levers of our future. Alberto Nagel will open the session, drafting the lines for the Mediobanca Group. We will move to our core businesses: Wealth Management, CIB, Consumer Finance, insurance. The asset and liability management, the digital agenda, the sustainability agenda will close the session. At the end of the presentation, we will be happy to answer your questions. Now we're ready to start with Mediobanca Group CEO, Alberto Nagel.
Good morning to everybody, thank you again for joining our Capital Market Day. The history of Mediobanca in the last 10 years has been a history of strong growth and big reshape. We have delivered above average industry return, today our mission is to become a preeminent, dominant Wealth Management. We want to do in this field a step change, capturing the full potential of the market on the back of very interesting results of the last three years plan, through a holistic model which leverage assets that only Mediobanca, at least in Italy, has. Our IB franchise, our brand and our people. For this reason, we have called this plan ONE BRAND – ONE CULTURE. We will pursue, however, bigger diversification of revenues and high cash flow also through growing contribution of consumer finance and insurance.
In a nutshell, we see strong future prospect for the group as Mediobanca will continue to focus on superior, stable, sustainable growth, innovation and stakeholder remuneration. All this will be done remaining firmly anchored to one of a kind school of responsible banking, which dates back to the bank's foundation. Throughout the last three years plan, the last 10 years of plan, sorry, starting from 2013, 2016, we started to tackle the reshape of the group, reducing legacy equity exposure. In 2016, 2019, we started to build our Wealth Management. These were the year when we bought back our 50% of Mediobanca Private Banking from friends of Mediolanum, and we bought also Barclays, starting a new period for CheBanca!. The last plan has been focusing more on growing revenue and raising distribution, targeting also ESG commitment.
If you look back Mediobanca 10 years ago, revenue were EUR 1.6 billion, and they have been doubled at EUR 3.2 billion. We have consistently beaten our targets in terms of revenues, +4%, TFA, loans and funding. Which is even more important that not only we've grew the revenue, but we have also reshaped the group. In fact, the contribution of Wealth Management that was only 16% of total revenue, reached 25% at the end of this year. Hence, we have been growing consistently earnings through a combination of organic growth, acquisition and share buybacks. Core Tier 1 steadily increased from 11.7% to 16%, again, beating all targets that were considered very ambitious when we issued the last plan. Profitability is going up, but sustainably. As well as distribution to our shareholder.
Here again, we have made some big changes throughout the different plan. Starting from an average payout of 34%, we reached 53%, we arrived to 60%. Distributing EUR 2.2 billion of dividend and buybacks, we have introduced buyback since the start of the year 2019. This also led to an increase in tangible book value per share by 40%, reaching EUR 11 per share at the end of this year. This operating performance reverted into over-performance in terms of financial results and stock market performance. We have had a total shareholder return of 216%, well above our peers in Italy and abroad, and this is on the back of revenue enhancement compared to the peers group as well as PBT and also ROT.
Which is even more important is the shape of the group at the end of the last plan. As you know, now we have four business. I would say that two are more linked to our brand and our heritage, in particular, starting from Corporate & Investment Banking and see Mediobanca as a go-to bank for entrepreneurs and corporates. Here we enjoy a top positioning as Italian private Investment Banking platform with a leading offering in terms of value added, sophisticated private and Investment Banking solution for private and corporates. Those two business provides a source of capital fee, and they have a strong growth trajectory. We have also two other business that encompass a great revenue and capital diversification and reallocation opportunity. The first one is Consumer Finance. Why we are in Consumer Finance?
I would say exactly for the same reason the bank entered Consumer Finance 70 years ago, 60, 70 years ago. It was evident to our founder, Enrico Cuccia, that sticking only on Corporate Investment Banking would have been very interesting in terms of development business, but more volatile. Hence he started a business that was having a totally different concentration of risk and stability of revenue. We work a lot on Compass that became a great leader in the market, securing high return, high resilience business and providing strong cash flow, which is de-correlated to the trend of Corporate Investment Banking. The same we can say for insurance that has provided stable uncorrelated return and capital efficiency for the Group. Look at what is going to happen in the next three years.
We want to affirm Mediobanca as a preeminent Wealth Manager. This is going to be powered by ONE BRAND – ONE CULTURE. To reach this goal, we have to leverage substantially on Mediobanca brand alongside a synergistic approach between our business, in particularly private and investment banking. We aspire to be the best place for our people, employees and customers, remaining firmly anchored to one of a kind school of responsible banking. We aim also to be a distinctive investment opportunity for our shareholders, focusing on capital light, low risk, profitable growth and outperforming the industry on stakeholder remuneration. These are our commitment to the market. If we go through our roadmap and we focus on the four pillars of our plan, we would start from Wealth Management. Here, we want to close the size and profitability gap with the current Italian top asset gatherer.
How we do this? We will capture the full potential of our unique positioning with high net worth individual clients, and we will have a very important massive repositioning and rebranding of the Premier segment. This will lead to double-digit increase in TFA, revenues and earnings. Wealth Management will become the main revenue growth driver and the top fee contributor of the group. The second pillar is the change in our leading Corporate & Investment Banking. Here we will focus our attention and our management effort on growing capital light visible fee business. We will leverage much more. We have started from mid corporate. We will go throughout all the client segment. We will leverage our synergistic approach with Wealth Management, and CIB will work more and more to help Wealth Management development.
We will achieve a strong revenue fee driver growth for the group. Corporate investment banking will be the main source of capital optimization with double-digit decrease in RWA. Here again, there is a big changes in what we have been compared to what we have been doing up to today. We will work to further increase and develop consumer finance. Growing a resilient revenue in a sustainable, profitable way. In a multi-channel approach, we will target customer in new market digitally. We will exploit Buy Now, Pay Later opportunities. Compass will confirm its role of being the most important engine of net interest income for the group. We will stick to our insurance business exposure. Why? Because it continues to be highly profitable source of visible earnings and a source of capital to fund potential M&A.
We will enjoy as well a more favorable capital treatment, like many other banking group for the insurance business. Throughout the Wealth Management, CIB, and Consumer Finance action plan, we see a mix of scale and optimize. Scale in Wealth Management will be scale service model towards high-end segment, while in CIB, scale means scaling the franchise, targeting new clients, geographies, sectors. It will be also a matter of integration on the back of the M&A we have concluded. In Consumer Finance, scales mean access digitally new geography and clients. Optimize will be in Wealth Management going from open to in-house guided architecture. In CIB, deal with capital and RWA inflation in different way, while in Consumer Finance, optimize the risk profile also through securitization, synthetic securitization. We have identified also three enablers we will detail later on.
First of all, a big push in digital agenda, precise and important commitments in ESG and M&A opportunity. ONE BRAND – ONE CULTURE will deliver strong and capital efficient growth. We will grow TFA by 11% and the mix will be different. We will improve in particular AUM and AUR by 13%, while deposit will see an increase of 3%. Which is even more important is that RWA will stay flat throughout the plan. The sound growth will be coupled with important optimization and introduction of the new regulation. Basically we'll have flat RWA going from 52 to 51, + EUR 4 billion of business growth will be offset by EUR 4 billion of optimization.
The shift to capital light will mean that in the increase in revenue, 6%, at the end of the plan, 50% of the revenue are going to be capital light. The growth in revenue will be split among all the different businesses, with two-digit increase in Wealth Management, reflecting the solid increase in TFA, and 11% net of Arma's 7% of CIB, which is going to be more and more capital light due to stronger focus on advisory and RWA optimization. Mid-single-digit growth in revenue will be achieved also in Consumer Finance and in insurance. Consumer Finance as absorbing less capital due to securitization, and insurance becoming definitely a capital light business also on the back of the Danish Compromise becoming permanent. To achieve this increase in revenue, we will have to invest more.
In particular, cost income will stay flat at 44, the good news is that the main part of 70% of the growth in cost is driven by business growth, including Arma acquisition, and this focusing the all the development of the business division. Organic increase in bankers, digital multi-channel distribution in consumer financing Wealth Management, and overall group account up 9%, 80% of which in frontline staff. The second part is the big push in digital agenda, the two big component of cost inflation or increase are business related, and they will offset the revenue growth, as I said, bringing the cost income to the same level of the start at 44%. A big step change, a second big step change is how we see RWA, how we deal with RWA.
As you know, Mediobanca has been always a bank long of capital. When you are long of capital, sometimes you don't put all the attention needed in RWA dynamic. We want to change this. We said this plan has to be different in this respect. We know that we are one of the banking group with the highest density. We wanted to work also on this topic. The end I think is gonna be very interesting. Why? We will have flat RWA, with diminished density from 57 to 52. We're gonna give RWA and capital to the business that are having better returns. Wealth Management and Consumer Finance We'll have EUR 1 billion of extra RWA, while in CIB, we will manage regulation optimization in a way to have EUR 3.5 billion of saving as opposed to EUR 1 billion of expansion.
The savings are coming from, in CIB, IRB model rollout completion, LGD and PD from 2025, and fundamental review of trading book to be managed neutral. In Consumer Finance, the synthetic securitization will bring EUR 1 billion of less capital. We plan to do EUR 2 billion of securitization in the second part of the plan. This will bring EUR 1 billion of savings. IRB will be offset in Consumer Finance by Basel IV. The profitability we raise with an execution risk mitigated by diversification. The improvement can be summarized 50% P&L driven and 50% capital management driven. Return on Risk-Weighted Assets will go up to 2.7%, and the improvement will be spread throughout the different business with the major component coming from CIB, more and more capital light, and Wealth Management on the back of expansion of its size.
Consumer Finance and insurance and holding function will contribute as well with 5 basis points and 10 basis points. One other very important slide which marks a different compared to the previous plan is our capital generation capacity, which will go up by 50%. If we compare this plan net earnings, we are going to generate 250 basis points of capital on a yearly basis. This compares with 180 basis points of the last plan, so 40% increase. Between optimization and regulation, business growth and other, we end up with a capital generation of 220 basis points + 50% compared to the last three years plan.
This is on the back of stronger earnings, but also stronger and different attention on capital light business. Another very important difference compared to the last to the last three years plan is our capital distribution policy. Again, here we wanted to make a change, which the change is basically the fact that buybacks are going to be a common permanent element of our distribution policy. In the past, we have seen, we have done buybacks in some years. In other, we have not been doing them. Here, while we are sticking to 70% remuneration, we want also to install a permanent use of buybacks. Delivering the plan, we will distribute EUR 2.7 billion of dividend through a 70% payout. In this respect, we wanted to do also a small changes introducing interim dividend from 2024.
In May 2024, we will pay the first half year dividend, and the second part will be paid in November 2024. This distribution policy will be coupled every year with buybacks. We plan to have EUR 1 billion of cumulative share buyback to be spread over the next three years with an amount that will be fixed annually. This is a major improvement because it encompassing 70% of increase in distribution compared to last year. ONE BRAND – ONE CULTURE will deliver visible value creation. ROTE will go up to 15%. Starting from already a good level, we will reach 15% on the back of revenue and profitability enhancement, coupled with a different capital management and the growth of capital light business.
It is important to notice that this 15% will be achieved in 2026, when it is likely that interest rates will be going down compared to the level of this year. This again is an evidence that Mediobanca is able to grow revenue and profitability in all scenarios, so rates going down or rates going up. EPS as well, we forecast a steady and robust increase in EPS on the back of a stronger earnings generation and a stronger attention on capital management through buybacks. In terms of capital allocation and discipline, we set a minimum level of CET1 of 13.5.
We have still a buffer of 100 basis points to do tactical M&A. The rest is available for distribution and is comprised in the EUR 2.7 billion of distribution of dividend and EUR 1 billion of buybacks. Those distribution will be in the region of 45% of market cap, which compares very well with our peers. What I want also to stress is another metrics which is also important, is the annual yield for our shareholder, no? We have already a very good yield in terms of dividend yield. If we take into consideration also the increase in tangible book value per share, we will arrive to EUR 15-EUR 16 per share. Basically a level which is quite interesting for our shareholder.
coming to the final part of my session, which are the key benefits for our shareholder. Throughout the plan, we will obtain a stronger industrial footprint of the group. Mediobanca with a stronger Wealth Management activity, which will be equal in terms of contribution and net earnings with the more established business of the bank, is gonna be stronger and less risky. It's gonna be more sustainable. It's gonna generate much more capital that will be available with the low execution risk to be distributed to our shareholder. there are substantial benefit also for the community. We want to stick to our DNA of responsible banking. This means that we are launching a first employee share ownership plan, and we want to change our new long-term incentive plan.
We want to push also for our diversity and inclusion program, which we launched last year with targets that are underway. We will support community and climate change transition with specific commitment that I will comment later on. Thank you for your attention.
Thank you, Alberto. Now we go with Saverio Vinci, Head of Wealth Management Division.
Good morning. Wealth management is the driving force behind our new industrial plan. It has been an important contributor to our results over the last 10 years. Our commitment to wealth management began in 2013. We can say that 2013 is the beginning of our journey, the first leg of our journey to become a unique player from a newcomer. We started with CheBanca!'s deposit gatherer, and along with a traditional approach to private banking in Italy and Monaco. We have continuously built on our footprint by repositioning CheBanca! from deposit to asset gatherer, by launching the strong network of financial advisors, by launching Mediobanca Private Banking, by repositioning day by day CMB, by launching our asset management platform via acquisition and internal growth.
To become now a unique player with a distinctive and specialized business, which supported by strong investment in distribution and technology. Now our main focus is on synergies in private investment banking model and private market platform. Over the span of the last 10 years, we have shifted over EUR 85 billion total financial asset. That means more or less 3x from the beginning. Our sales force has grown almost 1,000 professional. Our revenues are EUR 800 million. Our net profit has been multiplied by four, and ROIC is over 30%. The continuous generation of revenues and profitability and the delivery of the strategy, on one side the strategy and the target, is the history of the last two business plan. We hit all the targets we have in the business plan closing in June 2023.
Except for sales force target, which was affected by exogenous factors like COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine crisis. To be noted, anyway, that we achieved these results with less resources, improved efficiency, and high recurring and marginality. Where are we on our journey today? In private banking, we have a successful and focused private investment banking model. Our main competitor are some global investment banks which don't have enough focus on mid-cap Italian markets, and some asset manager we often lack IB expertise. What makes us different? We have more or less 85% of total financial asset in high-end customer brackets. We can offer a real dual investment banking, private banking coverage with integrated Wealth Management and corporate offering. We can provide flexible and bespoke offering. We have an in-depth knowledge of private markets. Over the last four years, private banking has posted revenues grew 12%, CAGR.
TFA grew 11% CAGR. EUR 12 billion of net new money. Above all, we have generated more than EUR 50 million fees in investment banking, capital market and advisory. We have managed more than 40 deals, generating liquidity events for EUR 5 billion net new money, of which EUR 3 billion directly managed by our CIB. Our client has committed more than EUR 3 billion in private markets offer, of which EUR 1 billion is already asset under management. To better understand how the dual coverage model works, we have an example, a case study. Mediobanca generated a complex SI deal with a leading Italian mid-corporate company. The deal was scouted by our private bankers, was managed by investment bankers with a real dual coverage during the process of acquisition and during the execution of the deal.
The deal has generated EUR 6 million fees for investment banking, EUR 2 million fees for Private Banking, net new money for EUR 500 million, of which with a retention rate of 80% for our Private Banking. That is a very high level for such kind of deals. After three- month, the investment allocation is there, and it well reflects the sophisticated investment advisory with bespoke solution that we can provide to our clients. On the premise segment, we have developed one of the most visible dynamic project on the market. Since 2016, CheBanca! has delivered above average growth rates, doubling in size and 3 x in profitability. We are ready to play in a different and more challenging league, competing with top player. What makes us different? We have 75% of total financial asset in the high end of customer brackets.
The high customer satisfaction and loyalty, given that their financial needs can be served within Mediobanca Group ecosystem. We have a real multi-channel offering. That is one of the reason why we have a unique capability to talk to next wealth generation. We have huge organic growth potential. We have a new unique distribution model, leveraging both financial advisor and private bankers. Take a look to the facts and figures, some of the facts and figures that we have achieved over the time. Top net new money growth, 3 x versus market average, more than 3x . Top productivity, almost 2 x per banker versus market average. Top recruitment rate CAGR, 10%, 5 x versus market average. What about the market? Italian savings market is high potential.
Italian household family financial wealth has increased by 20% over the last 10 years to EUR 4.8 trillion, of which 60% is still unmanaged. Italian private banking wealth is expected to be in the region of EUR 1.1 trillion at the beginning of 2024. That means a two-year CAGR of 7%. High-end clients have higher growth rate. This is mainly our target. There is some challenges, of course, like increase, spike in interest rates, inflation rate, ongoing margin pressure, increasing regulation, strong changing in demographics. On the other side, there is a lot of opportunities for a more personalized advisory proposition due to the lack of satisfaction with generalist bank approach lacking focus.
The client demand for wider range of product, a omnichannel experience, room for a fair player with fair price, with only management fee and no more performance fee, room to internalize margins with reshaping our offering. Top recruitment will prevail, and top recruitment for sure is on our disposal. On corporate side, our great opportunity lies with Italian industrial backbone, which is mainly made up mid- corporate, with often family owned. More than 1,300 family owned corporates are concentrated in Northern and Central Italy, and in some selected areas of Southern Italy. If you look to our coverage footprint, we well cover our clients. We have a good overlap with their presence. This pool of companies represent a big, huge opportunity for our private investment banking dual coverage model.
We can offer a holistic approach to the entrepreneur to manage, to take care of both his liquid wealth, that is financial real estate, his, and his illiquid wealth, that is the company. This market will be a great growth accelerator for us. What's next? ONE BRAND – ONE CULTURE. This is the new leg of our journey. Mediobanca want to be the leading wealth manager, able to attract the best talent and the best clients. We will leverage Mediobanca brand and culture, IB DNA, wealth management capabilities and expertise. Across private and Premier segment, closing the gap, filling the gap with current top player, but maintaining our unique positioning on high-end clients in private and investment banking offering. We will scale up with a full-fledged platform to support core clients from affluent to ultra- high-net-worth individual.
Asset class, liquid and liquid private markets, and a dedicated service model bespoke in private investment banking, enhanced asset management capabilities. Wealth management will be for sure the main driver of growth across the plan. In three years timeframe, will contribute as much as the historical business of Mediobanca, becoming the number 2 in terms of revenues and number 1 in terms of fees. ONE BRAND – ONE CULTURE. The Mediobanca brand main means core value, trust, solidity, membership, also the capacity to manage complex deal in a tailor-made approach for clients, corporate, entrepreneur, families and private. For this reason, but not only for this, the brand Mediobanca is strong enough to attract top bankers and top financial advisor, looking for a wider range, a more sophisticated range of products and services for their clients.
Over the next three years, we'll use the brand, the Mediobanca brand and culture to maximize private banking, investment banking coverage potential. To leverage the Mediobanca Academy, to develop talent, to create a new generation of private investment banker with our DNA, our let-me-see passion, and a strong sense of belonging. To strongly reposition CheBanca!, from January 2024, rebrand it like Mediobanca Premier and adopting the private investment banking model. For the first time, after more than 70 years, Mediobanca's logo will be visible. Here is the Mediobanca Premier logo that will be live in January 2024. This is a new step, a new important historical step in our journey to capitalize the strong value of Mediobanca brand, both on clients and professional, existing and to be hired.
To complete the repositioning of the offering and business model, to generate, to exploit synergies across the Mediobanca Group in Corporate & Investment Banking, Wealth Management, across the Private segment, and not only the Premier segment and not only on the private. Franchise will be scale up. We will invest in people. We will hire more than 300 professional, high-end professional. Most of the hirings will be in the Premier space, and the Premier will be more geared to variable cost rather than to fixed cost. We will increase average portfolio per banker to EUR 70 million. To be noted that the EUR 60 million, the actual EUR 60 million is already 2 x market average. We will boost net new money capacity. We will arrive to more than EUR 10 billion of net new money per annum, average per annum.
Being in the end, in the high end of clients means that, our client for sure pay less for, so-called plain vanilla service and product. On the other side, they have a different cost to serve. They have more sophisticated and complex needs. They have different risk appetite. Matching their needs or with our specialized offering, we can maintain our return on asset at 90 basis points. This a prudent assumption given that we don't consider any performance fee. To give more content to our offering, we will enhance in-house asset management capabilities by serving ultra -high-net-worth individual with a tailor-made offering, with product innovation, a holistic approach. Discretionary mandates and private markets will be core for this kind of clients.
We will leverage private market platform also to the premier level. We will move to in-house guided platform to discretionary mandates and tailor-made added value products, both in capital markets and asset management for the premier segment. At the end of the plan, we will have 50% of qualified asset, that is to say, asset under manager, asset under administration, in Mediobanca products from the existing 38%. We will improve our profitability. Mediobanca Wealth Management in 2006 will be a leader in Italian space. We will fill the gap with the top player, with our peers, both in size and in profitability. Mediobanca will maintain its unique positioning. 40% of total financial assets are in a ultra- high-net-worth individual. That is to say, 2 x more than market average.
Global advisory approach will remain. We will definitively reposition and rebrand Mediobanca Premier. Looking to the chart, we will increase in three year with a CAGR of 11% to EUR 115 billion of total financial asset. That according to the forecast last already, our pace will grow in three-year CAGR of 8%. We will fill the gap. To come to the targets, we will have a three-year 11% CAGR in total financial assets from 85 to 115. We will have 13% CAGR in Asset Under Management, Asset Under Administration from 57 to 85. That means at the end of the day, 75% of total financial asset will be qualified asset.
With a resilient growth margin at 90%, we will drive revenues over EUR 1 billion with a CAGR of 10%, having a more efficient platform with 60% of cost income, and boosting return on Risk-Weighted Asset at a level of 4% from existing 2.9%. To sum up, we truly believe that the new leg of our journey is the most interesting project in on the street in Wealth Management space. Thank you.
Thank you, Saverio. Now we move to the Corporate & Investment Banking with Giuseppe Baldelli, Co-Head of CIB.
Let's start the analysis of the CIB three-year plan looking at history. History is very important over the last 10 years to really identify a key feature of the CIB business, which is consistent delivery. Consistent delivery across capital optimization and growth. There's been a constant dynamic balance sheet found between these two dimensions. If we looked at the capital optimization, there's been a proactive management of our RWAs, resulting in a high quality of the lending portfolio and constant increase or return on capital. On the growth side, particularly over the last three years, there's been a strong push for internationalization with the key move represented by the Messier acquisition, which has built a leading presence in the advisory market in France.
Also the midcap effort, the first step of the partnership with Wealth Management, which has started successfully building a leading practice in Italy in midcap advisory. If we then move to the resiliency point, in my view, this is a key feature of CIB business of Mediobanca vis-à-vis our peers. Let's look at this chart. Over the last 10 years, you can clearly see that in down markets, in the three down markets we had, where the market was down double-digit, Mediobanca has consistently outperformed the market. Again, it's about resiliency linked to our diversified model. The resiliency has not been only at revenue level, has also been at return on capital level. As you can see here, there's been a consistent performance in terms of returns, a rising performance based on our capital light model, our cost discipline, and very important, our risk discipline.
This slide is very important, as it really shows what Mediobanca CIB is today, but also what is the direction of travel going forward. A client-driven international franchise based on advisory. If we look at this map, beyond the leadership in Italy over the last 75 years, you can really see the presence, the successful presence built in Spain and in France, more recently with Messier. Also the U.K., a very important hub for our capital markets, for our access to public and private debt and equity investors. As of last week, with the, with the addition of Arma, the build-up of a leading presence in tech across Europe. This growth in international will be very clear when we go and look at the numbers. By the end of the plan, international revenues will represent the majority of revenues from Mediobanca CIB.
Before we go into the future, let's take a look at what is the highly distinctive business model of CIB today, which is based on some key pillars. First of all, CIB is a fee-driven revenue model based on advisory and a client-centric approach. All of this matched with a selective balance sheet use. What does that mean? It means that the balance sheet use is focused on cross-selling with the view to enhance our return on capital. Diversification is a concept which is very important. If you look at the chart, you can clearly see that there is no single business within CIB which is more than one-third of total revenues. Clearly, something which differentiates us from our peers, which rely much more on one single business. Integration.
Integration with Wealth Management, with the creation of the private investment bank model, a unique feature which will drive our growth going forward. I'm not gonna spend a lot of time talking about our past successes in Italy, France, and Spain, but it is important to stress one point which emerges clearly from the slides, the breadth of Mediobanca CIB franchise. This breadth is clear when we look at the products, when we look at the geographies, at the industry and the clients we serve. It is widespread. Again, diversification, again, resiliency, but also growth, because we are targeting more and more, in particularly clients which we believe in Europe over the next three years will be more important for investment banking franchises, and these are the private capital providers and the midcap players. Let's take a look at Arma for a second.
This is the latest addition to the Mediobanca family, a strategic transaction for CIB and for the bank as a whole. What is Arma? Arma is the leading technology advisory franchise in Europe among the independent players. Has a history of 20 years of track record, has a diversified revenue mix, which you can see clearly here, across verticals in the tech sector, being fintech, software, digital media, but also diversified across geographies. There's a significant reliance on the U.K., which is coupled with other international markets, mainly Northern Europe. When we were discussing with Alberto and Paco over the last several months, what was the right partner for Mediobanca to build a leading presence in technology, we were looking at players that had two features mainly. One, cultural fit, and second, synergies. In Arma, we found both of them. Cultural fit.
The DNA of Arma is client centricity and advisory, the same of Mediobanca. Synergies. This slide shows clearly, this chart shows clearly that the leadership of Arma is mainly built in Northern Europe and U.K. Mediobanca core markets, Italy and Spain and France, will provide a synergistic platform for the differentiated content of Arma in digital economy and tech. There is more to that. Everything is tech today. That means that our broad platform, all our sectors, will benefit from Arma. There's not gonna be any strategic transaction in the next years which will not be analyzed without a digital angle, without a tech angle. Our clients across sectors, in CIB, but also in Wealth Management, to the point of the partnership, will benefit from this differentiated and specific knowledge. Let's look at our mission. What is next?
I will focus your attention on a few important words here. We want to be more international. What does that mean? It means 3 specific and focused dimensions. We want to drive international expansion with industry competence. Arma is an obvious example. Energy transition, a new industry we are developing, is a natural other one. Also on our traditional core sectors, being financial institutions, being industrial, consumer, infrastructure, and all the others, we believe that our competencies can drive expansion in other markets, and we have a strong belief that particularly Europe will benefit from international consolidation. Second, clients. This is the other dimension we will follow for our international expansion, and this is mainly about midcap. We have built a successful business in Italy, the leading business in Italy on midcap advisory.
We believe we can replicate that in other countries, being Spain, France, but also U.K. and Germany, both leveraging on our existing bankers. We deploy them towards this growing market, but also partnering with successful professional in those geographies. Products. Becoming a security-based swap dealer in the U.S., being more active in IPO around Europe. Leveraging on our successful acquisition financing practice, our products will allow to expand our revenues internationally. Diversification. We wanna be more and more diversified. We talked about geographies, but this is true about products, clients, and industries. Profitability, this is a key element in our plan, it's been a key element over the last 10 years.
It will continue to be more and more going forward because our objective is to increase our return on capital, and this will happen with a combination of growth, but also tight cost control, disciplined use of capital, and solid risk discipline. Integration with the Wealth Management, we talked about it a lot. This is the concept of one franchise, of partnering across clients, the midcap and also the larger ones. Finally, probably the most important thing, which is talent. In-house talent continue to nurture and strengthen our internal bench, but also looking outside in order to hire people who are, and bankers who are ethical, entrepreneurial, and with a diverse background. These are the ingredients to build a strong talent pool for the next three years of growth. We then move to the 3 strategic directions of our growth, let's focus one by one.
First, enhance industry coverage. Our strong belief is that investment banking in the years to come will rely more and more on industry competencies, which can be exported across countries and leveraged also across divisions, CIB and Wealth Management again. We talked about tech with Arma. Let me spend a couple of words on energy transition. We believe there's a secular growth trend for energy transition, mostly untapped by our competitors, where we have solid competencies in-house, and we believe we can expand in Italy and other countries. Healthcare is also another growth sector going forward. We are gonna be selective about that, how we grow that business. We can't forget our core sectors, as mentioned earlier, industrial, consumer, infrastructure, financial institutions, where we will address a growth in the industry content we have, again, with a view at international markets.
Second, client base, we talked about it. Private capital coverage will be very important. One can ask, why clients, why private capital clients should come to Mediobanca? To me, the answer is very clear. We offer content, ideas, we offer a unique network, connectivity, and we offer access to families, entrepreneurs, and situations. In today's world, with massive capital available to these funds, the most important thing that the private capital clients are looking for is content and network. We can deliver that. Second, mid clients. We have said it again, Italy has been a huge success. We believe that France and Spain and U.K. and Germany will be the next steps. We have developed a plan. We are going to implement it because we believe that our DNA will allow us to be successful there. When we talk about new products, we are mainly looking at our markets business.
Let me be very clear, we are not going to compromise on our capital light approach and on risk discipline. We believe there are four main areas which will provide a visible flow of business going forward. We aim at becoming a B2B specialist in Italy, which will also give us stronger access to financial institutions to enhance even further cross-selling. We are going to be a fully fledged participant in the CO2 trading market. We are going to expand our U.S. derivatives business without becoming a securities-based swap dealer. Finally, our successful certificate business in Italy will be expanded abroad. Again, all visible revenues going forward with strong risk and capital control. Let's talk about numbers. If you look at the next three years, we see revenues growing to EUR 900 million with a CAGR, a three-year CAGR of 11% vis-à-vis 2023.
More important, our capital light revenues will represent 40% of total vis-à-vis 28% today. Going forward, advisory will represent 2/3 of our CIB fees. Important international revenues will represent 55% of total CIB revenues at the end of the plan. A plan which is very much focused on growth, mainly driven by Arma, but also by the various new initiatives we have in place in corporate finance, in markets, which will boost our revenues in the next three years. Plus a continuous delivery on our successful business, which has been so far so key to our growth. We talked about the discipline in capital. Well, if you look at this slide, it's pretty clear. We are gonna reduce RWA from EUR 20 billion to EUR 17 billion.
That will happen both through an optimization of our lending portfolio, driven in particular by a PD and LGD improvement starting in 2025, also continuing to maintain a strong focus on quality of our lending book. Today we are 70% of investment grade portfolio, which compares favorably with our peers at about 50%. We don't intend with RWA optimization to shrink our business, in fact, as you see in this slide, our loan book will remain flat at EUR 20 billion. We will be more efficient going forward with the cost income remaining flat at around 49%. This is very important in the context of the significant growth we envisage for CIB going forward.
All of this together will translate in a significant increase in our returns on capital, with return on RWA going from 1% this year to 1.6% by the end of the plan. Thank you.
Grazie, Giuseppe. Now we move to the next session, to the Consumer Finance with Gian Luca Sichel, head of Consumer Finance. Thank you.
Good morning. Good morning to everyone. In the next 20 minutes, I will drive you through the plan that we envisioned for Compass, for Consumer Credit. Before entering into the details of what we will do, it's very important to take some evidence on how the Compass business model behaves on the market. In the slide here, you have the last 10 years, but you can easily trace back to the eighties or the nineties and take a 20 years history, you would get the same message. Year -after -year, Compass has delivered growth, profitability, quite decorrelated from the macro, quite decorrelated from big market trend. In addition to this, we have always maintained an edge in terms of profitability versus competitors. There is a lot of alpha here, and even more important for you, this alpha is consistent over time.
This doesn't happen by chance. This is the specific consequence of some distinctive characteristics of Compass that are useful for us to nail down before we move forward. There are many of these, but for today's session, I want to focus on 3 of these. The first one has to do with asset quality. We call it clean balance sheet. Remember that in consumer credit industry, you can never look at P&Ls on a standalone basis. P&L is meaningless unless you read it combined with its balance sheet. This has to do with the fact that the time horizon of revenues, the way they develop, is different from the time horizon of credit risk that may arise two years later, three years later. This is very important because this mismatch may drive wrong decision.
In company, we have a unique setup to deal with this that has to do with this clean balance sheet policy. First of all bad loans with 12 -month of installment past due, they take 100% provision. 100% provision. It never happened to us that on our balance sheet may stay a bad loans for three or four years, provision that 70% or 80% with that remaining 20%, which is what scared the market, this is one of the reason why then the banks can have a multiple trading below the book, because that's not completely provisioned. That's not the same for us. There is more than that. In addition to this, we do a regular disposal of our bad loans.
Every six- month, we do disposal of bad loans, and typically, we get a price by which we get a writeback on each of the sale. Finally, and this is probably the most important piece, we have a policy that we internally call accelerated provisioning. Not only we want to sleep safe on this year timeframe, the 12- month, but we want that during the year, if we have an NPL arriving at three-month installment past due, three- month, 90 days, it gets more than 75% provisioning. six-month installment past due, six- month, more than 85% provisioning. This means that in Compass, we will not get any commercial decision which is short-termist because the potential impact of P&L would immediately hit us.
This is very much entrenched in the Compass culture and in the Compass value and analytical framework, as I told you in a while. Now, the question is, okay, but how can Compass afford this kind of accelerating provision and still delivering this high profitability? Here, the answer has a name, has a name that we call value-based analytical framework. Every single decision in Compass, being a pricing decision, cut-off decision, collection, cross-selling, whatever, is being through an analytical framework using a metric called lifetime value that goes until the single euro, the single loan book, the single client, single branch, and we take all the decision, always making sure that that decision will bring enough return on equity and sustainable lifetime value of the client. We never go after volumes. We don't care about volume. Volumes are vanity. We only care about value. Why, why value sanity?
Why? Because value, meaning risk-adjusted margin, is the real buffer that companies has to face potential unexpected volatility in cost of risk. That's value. That's where the sustainability of these companies lies. You can look on the bottom right part of the slide that volumes are by any measure a proxy for value. You can see Peer 1, which has a sizable loan book, bigger than Compass, if you look at return on asset profitability, it's less than half. That's a weak position where you don't want to be. Big loan book, lower marginality. We only care about value. We will never find ourself in that situation. This brings to another question, how can Compass defend this value, meaning defending risk-adjusted margin? Here, the answer is distribution in Compass is not just distribution.
Our first credit officer is the salesman on the front line, the guy collecting the data from the client. Our salesmen are trained, rewarded, they are appreciated within the organization in relation to the asset quality they bring to Compass, to the bank. This is Compass culture. Commercial side is not detached from risk management side. They are tied together. Cut-off decision are taken within pricing decision because what matters is the lifetime value that in the end comes into the bank. Basically, why we have spent some times on highlighting this? On these three pillars, which are asset quality and clean balance sheet, value-driven decision, and commercial, which is not commercial, is tied together with risk management, we have built our success so far, and we will keep on doing this.
Going forward, our future will be to build a layer of innovation and future strategy, and now I will give you more detail, but based upon these very sound pillars. What we will do upon these pillars? First, strategic claim. We will, in the next three years, upgrade even more our leadership in terms of what? In terms of new client acquisition, new products, new services, service model that has to do with cost income efficiency and clients loyalty, and of course, long-term sustainability. How we will do that? There will be many elements on this, and in the following slides, I will drive you through. Here the concept is that the major trajectory will be building a layer of digital innovation, both B2C and B2B, on top of this pillar, risk management and distribution.
This layer of digital innovation will not be something separate. It will be complementary, embedded, empowering the strength of Compass and bringing new clients, revenue line, and efficiency to the model. In which framework, sustainability framework, we will do all of this? First, we will take care about RWA optimization. This has been mentioned by Mr. Nagel. We have planned to do some synthetic securitization over the plan to bring RWA advantage. Second, we will maintain and actually increase the edge, the gap in risk management that we have versus competition, leveraging on artificial intelligence, know-how, and tools, and all the big data and machine learning techniques that can leverage on our database that can count and can arrive of more than 15 million households. We have a database of more than 15 million households. That's unique.
It's, of course a treasury of data where all the new technology can work and learn. Finally, we will have, of course, a very careful eye on all the ESG-related theme. Let's enter into business details, let's spend some minutes on this slide, which is very important. It contains at least four messages that I wanna share with you. First one has to do with the national coverage of our physical distribution. Second message has to do with digital omni-channel integration. Third message, strategic independence. Fourth one has to do with the B2C franchise that we will build. Physical distribution first. Here, the key message is that we are almost there. Today, we have 309 branches on the field, partially fixed cost and partially variable cost. We are quite there.
We will do a very focused increase from 309 to 340 using geo-social geo tools and analytical models to check the perfect location for the future openings. The key message is that when we will be at 340, that's the right size to serve all the domestic territory. That's important. We question ourself a lot on the fact that is it okay to say that's clear, that's the right size? Are we missing potential opportunities giving that banks and insurance companies are retrenching, closing branches, and maybe there are opportunities on the field? We think it's the right size, the answer goes exactly into the second point, digital omni-channel integration.
With 300 physical point of sales on the territory, complemented and empowered by layers of B2C and B2B digital platform, we will have the required power in terms of client reach, client serving model, ability to build on lifetime services to our clients that makes it the right size. On this digital agenda, I will come back a second later. I move on to this third piece, which is strategic independence. That's again, very important. Look at the left-hand pie, 2016. In that period, Compass was already very profitable, strong player, was already leading the market, but it was a different animal. The blue part of the pie tells you that below 50% of the loan production was made through third parties, banks, insurance, and other third parties. That's okay.
They were bringing us clients, so the model was working, but clients were not under the property of Compass. That makes a difference. That was a hybrid B2C and B2B animal. When we were getting clients from third parties, we were paying fees, we were not able to use our risk adjustment policies, and we were subject to a strategic risk. As it happened, a bank may disappear, a bank may change its strategy. You are at risk, strategic risk on the channel sustainability. If you look at today, 2023, and when we will be in three years, that's completely different. As of today, we already have 75% of loan production made through direct channel, proprietary channel. We will reach 85%.
At the end of this journey, basically, we can say that Compass will be an independent franchise, self-sufficient in clients acquisition and clients management over time, and have an engine to recreate value over time. This is very important and kicks in the last point, which is B2C power. We can say that today, with this strategic independence, we can fully leverage on investing on our own brand, our own franchise. We don't have third parties constraints. Every single EUR we will invest in our communication, in reinforcing our brand, will have tremendous reward because of the multiple touch point that our clients have, physical and digital, the clear focus of the brand and the franchise on the territory. This will take the value of the Compass franchise to a new level.
I mentioned to you several times this digital platform, this kind of buzzword, very much used and probably abused. Let's try to get some real stuff around it. When we talk about digital platform, we have in mind a conceptual crossroad. On the right side, you have what we call B2C or digital lending, okay? This is where the core business lies. This is where we sell our loans, and we increase the lifetime value of our clients. On the left-hand side, you have the B2B platform that can be Buy Now, Pay Later, or broadly, e-commerce financing. They are conceptually different because they belong to different part of the value chain. You have the value extraction on the right, B2C, and you have the client acquisition on the left, which is B2B platform. They also rely on different kind of technology.
When you talk about B2C, we are developing code to bring technology and link it to our core banking to make the customer experience easier. On the left side with B2B, that's quite a new space. The technology is so-called plug-in technology. You need to bring your devices and your technology together with an e-merchant, so it's different, and you need to be very smart, very agile. That's the reason why we decided to acquire fintech. We took 100% of a fintech called Soi sy and 20% of another one called HeidiPay, and we work with other fintech because we wanna be leading edge on the way we develop this plug-in technology. On the B2C, let me mention you what we mean. We mean we will have a relational app for our clients using their mobiles.
They can do almost whatever they want in terms of loan servicing, information, and asking for new clients. We will go through instant lending, so we will go for one minute time for requiring a loan, everything manageable by devices. We will build on onboarding, accessibility for digital native generation, user experience that will put us leading edge on this space and able to grab market share. When we look at B2B, mainly today we are talking about Buy Now, Pay Later. I want to here to make a couple of points which I think are important for you. Why Buy Now, Pay Later is important for Compass, first. Why Buy Now, Pay Later in Compass is different from what you see in the market.
I think that the second part will be very much interesting for you in the light of what's happening to the big fintech players facing some difficulties today. First, why is it very important for us? Very clear. 4 big trajectories. Strong engine for new client acquisition. Basically, every month we bring in massive flow of new clients, quite diversified, so diversifying the client base, and actually without paying an acquisition cost, but being rewarded. Because in the Compass model, even when we do the single buy now, which is small ticket, small duration, but we have a nice return, so no acquisition cost and strong engine for new clients. Second piece has to do with lifetime value.
We have the marketing capabilities and platform to maximize the lifetime value of these new clients that we hire, and that's the fuel for all the net interest income for the following year. New client acquisition, we maximize them with our marketing capabilities. Third, new markets. We have a clear expectation by which all this Buy Now, Pay Later world, which is not very much regulated today, will be attracted by Consumer Credit Directive. We think it will happen. It will happen probably in a couple of years, and that will be a problem for operators that are not used to comply with this, but that's our job. When it will happen, this means that the revenue pool will not only be only Buy Now, Pay Later, but the broader e-commerce financing. That's a much larger revenue pool.
Compass will be right there with the first mover advantage, I think one or two years ahead of every competitors. Basically shaping and crafting a new market to increase our revenues. Last but not least, new geographies. Buy Now, Pay Later seems to be a perfect mechanism for an entry strategy in a new market. You don't need to invest in proper proprietary distribution. You don't have execution risk because you are combining your forces with a partner, a merchant. You serve his clients on his digital properties abroad. You learn by doing because the risk management is very much helped by the fact that lower duration, lower ticket means that you have low exposure, and you can easily learn by doing.
Linking to this piece, a quick comment for you on why is Compass different in this space. I told you, and you are probably aware, that the major buy now, pay later global fintech operator are now facing tough times. Let's be very careful. It's not because credit risk. That's one part of the story, remember what we learned in the previous part of the session. What is key is the value. They are missing a value model. They are missing a revenue model. The key weakness is that they don't have a strong revenue model, and this is coming through. When the funding costs are going up because of high interest rates, all the model gets weaker first and then credit risk. Of course, they don't have our capabilities.
Think that in Buy Now, Pay Later, we use two different credit bureau, the only one in the market in Italy. The leading-edge anti-fraud decisioning system. We have focused collection processes tailored for Buy Now, Pay Later. As I told you before, we have a more than 10 million database to leverage on. No single Buy Now, Pay Later player can have something like that. Finally, let's move to the numbers. I wanna take your attention first on the loan book growth. As I told you, it's gradual. We are growing 5%. We do not chase market spikes or valleys. That's gradual, driven by volume, by value. This, you can see it reflected in the revenue side that goes very much above EUR 1 billion.
It's EUR 1.3 billion with a 5% year-on-year annual compound, average compounded growth over the plan, which is very distinctive because we are facing today a complex environment. Compass will still deliver the net interest income and the kind of profitability we are used. Couple of words on cost of risk. That's very important. In our plan, we are assuming, with a prudent approach, an environment where default rates will gradually increase in the next three years. If you look at today, we are at a historical low, 150 basis point. That a lowest level ever.
We think that in the next three years, default rates will gradually increase versus 200-210 basis points, and this will be due to reverting to pre-COVID because, of course today we are artificially low. Even at the end of the plan, we will be below pre-COVID level, and then there is a mix effect. This will bring what we call industrial cost of risk in the region of 210.
Remember that we have put aside overlays in this year exactly for this reason, more than EUR 200 million, exactly to face complex environment where the one we are in, and we are planning to release, not all of them, portion, 80% around of these overlays to maintain the cost of risk in the region of 160, 170 basis points. All of this is confirming the high profitability that we have. More than that, I think that the message that I want to leave that lands on you is that this kind of profitability is very much sustainable. Everything we do is long-term, actually, in this number, we are investing to pave the way for the next ramp-up. Thank you very much for the attention.
Thank you, Gian Luca. Now we move to the insurance section and the asset and liability management section with Emanuele Flappini, Mediobanca CFO. Thank you.
Good morning, everybody. In the last 10 years, we complete the material disposal of legacy equity exposure, moving from a wide and diversified equity stake portfolio to a basically one single stake in insurance, represented by the 13% stake in Assicurazioni Generali due to its profitability and value option, as reflect in the contribution of group revenues, 12%, double in terms of G-GOP, and with a very good return on allocated capital, 17%. Insurance exposure is a constant growing presence in most of the strongest and better rated European banks. In particular, Assicurazioni Generali is a high quality, well rated investment, single A by Fitch, with sound and improving financial performance, as confirmed in the latest business plan of the company. The investment in Assicurazioni Generali is supported by a strong financial rationale.
The exposure to insurance sector is now more valuable in this current macro and could stabilize Mediobanca Group in terms of revenues, earning per share, and dividend per share. In the next three years, we will further improve its significant return with revenues increasing and with a more favorable capital treatment, considering that the Danish Compromise will become permanent after the endorsement of CRR III expected within the end of this year. This stake has a strong value option. It's readily available capital source for potential business growth and M&A. Moving to ALM. The material progress made in the last decade find Mediobanca well prepared to face the present and foreseeable scenario. ALM centralized within holding function, working to meet the group needs.
The significant loan growth despite crisis, the abundant funding at lower cost of funding due to Wealth Management deposit double for EUR 14 billion to EUR 28 billion, with permit an increase of group NII from EUR 1.2 billion of 2016 to EUR 1.8 billion at the end of this fiscal year, with a constant growth even during negative interest rates markets. We are planning to close this fiscal year in a very comfortable ALM position. The funding stock show at EUR 60 billion, well diversified between private investors, 60%, split between deposit and bond placed with households, and institutional, 40%, with a high access to the market that was very resilient even during the volatility and crisis.
Mediobanca ranks first for bond issuance in Italy via third party networks, and our Wealth Management franchise is definitely wider. The loan book close at EUR 53 billion, even here with a good diversification between retail and Wealth Management borrowers, 60%, and corporates, 40%, of which 70% investment grade with no exposure to SME and with low exposure to risky sectors. The asset quality remain very, very strong, with a gross NPL at 2.4%, in line with our peers, and the coverage ratio very good, both on bonis and non-performing loan, including EUR 270 million of overlays set aside during COVID-19, of which more than EUR 200 million in Consumer Finance still available.
Even treasury asset grow to EUR 14 billion, with EUR 5 billion of liquidity and a banking book of EUR 9.1 billion, with a major part in Govies, with a short duration, less than three years, and well balanced between hold to collect and hold to collect and sell, that permit to maintain regulatory indicators in a very high level, LCR at 157%, NSFR 160%, counterbalancing capacity above EUR 50 billion. The new business plan will be executed in a complex, in a complex scenario. We start with a world potential growth that will be lower and cost lead inflation higher, at least in the near future.
On European and domestic side, we will see a growth of GDP fueled by a massive and intensive investment plan, first of all, Next Generation EU that sustain economic growth and maintain under control labor market tension. We expect the peak of rates at the middle of 2023 just to maintain then till the Q1 of 2024 in the peak at 3.8% for Euribor three -month and then to go back but remain above 2% in line with our core target inflation, 2%, and fully aligned with ECB deposit facility. The strong commitment of ECB to avoid government spread fragmentation will permit to have a BTP-Bund spread range between 200 and 200 basis points over the forecast horizon. In the next three years, we will expect an active management of the new rates environment.
The ILM structure will be functional to support the group development and NII growth with a core funding source growth both in bonds and Wealth Management deposit that will support a value-driven lending origination. In the first part of the plan, the revenues will be generated by banking book and NII sensitivity to interest rates, progressively substituted by an accelerating Consumer Finance contribution where interest rates start to decrease. We confirm our strong asset quality profile and the liquidity indicators with an LCR at 150% across the three years, NSFR above 115%, and a counter balancing capacity up to EUR 19 billion. Going to the numbers, we see on the asset side, we take a value-driven approach.
The loan book grow from 53% to 57% with a three-year CAGR of 3%, little lower compared to the past, +4%, due to a more selective origination in Wealth Management and the CIB. In particular, the new production of mortgages per year will be below EUR 1.5 billion with customer spread flat and CIB, corporate loan will be down from EUR 5 billion-EUR 3 billion per year with a very focus on a return on allocated capital. On the contrary, we see a new loan expansion in consumer from EUR 8 billion-EUR 9 billion per year at a resilient marginality that become extended where rates decrease on stop in the last 18- month of the business plan. The return to interest rate positive, we have an increase of banking book as NII generators.
In particular, we tactically increase the Govvies portfolio, and we continue to grow in the first part of the plan, without we remain below the average with an Italian Govvies kept at 70%. We will optimize the current abundant liquidity without affecting counter balancing capacity that move from EUR 15 billion-EUR 19 billion due to the collateral release after the TLTRO substitution. On the funding side, we see a funding stock raise from EUR 60 billion to EUR 64 billion driven by all core sources. The increase of bonds, + EUR 5 billion and Wealth Management deposit + EUR 2 billion will permit a soft exit from LTRO, EUR 5 billion, within September 2024.
We will face the higher yield demand from investors managed through a guided conversion into term deposit and bonds, enlarging Mediobanca franchise, scaling Mediobanca rating solidity and brand recognition. The deposit cost will be contained and Wealth Management remain the cheapest source of funding for the group, even if we see deposit beta move up in the first part of the plan. The new bond issue will range between EUR 4 billion and EUR 6 billion per year with a good diversification in terms of products and channels. 1/4 of the new issue it will be secured, 2/4 unsecured. The cost of funding, the high demand from investors, both institutional that retail Wealth Management and the low necessity of subordinated bond
According to our good, MREL position, we maintain and limited the increase of cost of funding of the bond stock just up of 15 basis points over the three years. This funding plan, it will be fully aligned with our loan growth, the new interest rate environment, and the credit spread according to this macro scenario. Thank you.
Grazie, Emanuele. Now we move to the final section with Alberto Nagel, touching the digital agenda, the ESG agenda, and the closing remarks. Thank you.
In my previous session, I mentioned three enablers, actually two enablers, I would say, and one accelerator. The first enabler, big enabler of this plan is our digital agenda push. Out of more than 25 programs and 300 projects, we are targeting three main tech priority and benefits. The first one is related to the enhancement of digital channels and user experience. Here we have done a lot, in particular in Premier segment. We plan to do more to align the standard of Premier to the other wealth management component and as well as Gian Luca was saying, to improve the Compass offering, digital offering. The second main camp of investment will be on the digital sales platform development.
We want to provide our sales team with better tools. This is clearly possible or much more powerful today using AI and having them facing client a much more effective data-driven solution and commercial proposal. The third main investment will be related to AI and automation on operation for cost optimization. We want to reduce the cost to serve. We want to use much more the new technology to reduce this cost to serve. Needless to say that cybersecurity investment and cloud computing and cloud journey will be an important piece of this digital agenda. As well, I would say a change in talent growth and acquisition. Like other banks, we want to internalize more capabilities to deal with this kind of digital journey rather than being advised from external consultancy firm.
We will also push on cooperation with key domestic international players, both fintech and big tech, in order to have an exchange of competence between them and us. As I said, there will be 25 programs and roughly 300 project. The overall spending will be EUR 230 million, and this will be up 25% on annual average compared to the previous plan. The second big enabler is our long-standing responsible approach to banking and the commitments that we are taking with this plan in environment, social, and governance. We have detailed them, and they are on carbon footprint first.
Of course, we stick to net zero finance emission by 2050. We have detailed this journey analytically with commitment to reduce by 2026, so by the end of our plan, the finance emission by 18%, to increase this reduction 30%-35% by 2030. We will also release interim and sector target for net zero banking, released by 2024. We plan to phase out from coal by 2030 to stick to our carbon neutrality and to embed more environmental risk in our risk management approach, in our RAF, in our ICAAP, in our stress testing. The second big camp is social. On social, we have released our target of diversity inclusion.
It's a long journey, starting from the point where most of the bank and investment bank are. We plan to have more than 30% of female members as Mediobanca key function holders. We want to have more than 20% of female executive and to have more than 20% women out of total hires. We want to train 100% of employee, giving them an education in ESG, spend more than EUR 20 million in support to project that have a social impact, and then stopping lending to investing to tobacco during the course of the plan. In governance, we have changed our approach to long-term incentive plan. Basically, we are now embedding 50% of total variable compensation, as opposed to previous 20, for the general manager and for myself, deliver all in equity.
This will of course extend to a bigger group of key strategic resources, and we want to give a weight of at least 20% of ESG KPI within our LTI. We said about the first plan ever launched in Mediobanca Group for employee share ownership plan. We are detailing a specific target on ESG offering across the different business in Wealth Management, in Consumer Finance, in Corporate & Investment Banking, as well as we are, you know, putting effort in increase ESG culture as well throughout the different three business unit. The third enabler is, in reality, an accelerator, and is our approach to M&A. We stick to what we have done in terms of rational and criteria for M&A.
M&A for us can be a good accelerator of our strategy, having a strong industrial rationale, capital-light business that are excellent fit for Mediobanca, ethics and business approach. We have done several bolt-on acquisitions in the last few years, so basically to sum up, we have invested 150 basis points of capital, gained or increased TFA by EUR 20 billion, and add EUR 300 million of revenue. These are bolt-on acquisitions, manageable with a low execution risk. This doesn't mean that we cannot see bigger deals, but they have to have the same criteria for M&A, and of course, we are available for that as we do it for our clients. To come to the last part of this long presentation, I want to just to address a few closing remarks. Consistency and delivery.
Mediobanca over the last 10 years has consistently grown and reshape regardless of the macro. Whether it was a low interest rates and low growth or high interest rates and high growth. The success of the strategy has made that Mediobanca has invested the capital generated in key growth opportunity, and the four business are today much bigger than in the past. The strong performance of the last plan have suggested us a bolder ambition regarding the available opportunity that is there in the market. The plan, ONE BRAND – ONE CULTURE, clearly plan to capture this opportunity. We have, from consistency and delivery, raised our ambition and detailed our future growth, where Wealth Management will become a leader in the Italian market, unlocking the full potential of Mediobanca Private and Investment Banking platform.
CIB will evolve into a more capital-light European model, which leverages synergistic approach with our Wealth Management business. Consumer Finance will further improve its leadership through an upgrade of its service model, exploiting its proven capability in distribution and risk management. Insurance will continue to give significant cash flow and the correlation with traditional banking risk, while benefiting from improved capital treatment. To sum it up, which are the four pillars of Mediobanca business plan, ONE BRAND – ONE CULTURE, or in another ways, four good reason to own the stock of Mediobanca. First, we will deliver substantial growth in capital-light portfolio. Wealth Management will become the biggest driver in growth, and we will have a different approach to RWA dynamic and to CIB management. Second pillar, targeting best-in-class return with low risk.
We plan to have a RoTE of 15% and 15% as well of EPS CAGR. This is going to be obtained with prudent cost of risk assumption. Third good reason to invest into Mediobanca stock, significant growth in shareholder remuneration. We are going to deliver one of the best industry distribution policy available in Europe. Going up 70% in shareholder return, we will have 70% payout + EUR 1 billion of share buyback. The fourth pillar or reason is as well as important the first three ones. We don't want to do this changing the DNA of the bank. We don't want to do it increasing the risk.
We want to remain anchored to our school of banking, where track record is of delivering on targets in transformation and is done not taking risks that are not coherent with our DNA. Thank you very much for your attention.
Grazie, Alberto. Now we have closed the presentation, and we are ready to take all your questions. I remind you that we will take first the question asked by phone and only after the question by chat. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. If you wish to ask a question via the webcast, please use the Ask a Question box available on the webcast link. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. We are now taking the first question. The first question from Azzurra Guelfi from Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hi, good morning, and well done for the presentation of the plans. very well put. I have two area that maybe are the one that are a little bit more different from what I was expecting, and so maybe I'll investigate on those. When I look at the revenue growth in the CIB, that seems quite high. I understand the new initiative and ARMA, but can you elaborate with us what are the risks that you see linked to the market, and how do you expect to face them? Also on the cost side, what are costs that could be variable or flexible on that? The other point is on capital. The capital return is great. It's a very generous dividend and buyback policy.
I have a couple of questions on the development of the capital, because capital is increasing thanks to the profitability improvement and also to the action on risk-weighted asset. I see that your minimum CET1 is going to 13.5, and so I'm wondering why this big buffer versus the regulatory requirement, given that you are going on a more capital light approach. You are very, very profitable because you have over 200 basis points of capital generation every year organically. If you can give us some color on the 100 basis points of capital available for M&A in terms of what are the capabilities that you, if you have a wish list or what you could add? Thank you.
Thank you, Azzurra. I will ask Giuseppe Baldelli to answer the first question while I will answer the second one.
Thank you, Alberto, and thank you, Azzurra. First of all, let me start by saying that we have built our plan with a view on 2023, the next couple of quarters still remaining relatively soft, with an acceleration starting in 2024. That's from a macro perspective. In this context, we are confident in our revenue growth as it is highly diversified. First of all, ARMA. We are seeing a strong pipeline at the moment, and we are convinced that in tech, the consolidation, particularly in the mid to large cap segment, will continue to be very strong. We are comfortable in the revenue growth of ARMA.
As to the new initiatives, I think it's very important to stress that we have a variety of initiatives also to address potential risks of one going a bit slower than the other. On the market side, we have good comfort given the initiatives we have going forward have good visibility, being the BTP and others. As to the corporate finance ones, we think there's fundamental growth coming in the market in the next couple of years, plus we have diversified the reliance on each of them. Last but not least, on the organic growth of our as is business, our business plan is relatively conservative and hence overall our revenue growth is deemed to be achievable. On the cost side, we have, as you have seen, a flat cost income ratio.
I think we are, we assume, obviously a, an intake of the Arma bankers, over time our personnel will be driven by selective, very selective senior hires where they add value, whilst we will reinforce our junior bench, so with a relatively low cost. We think also on that we are flexible in terms of cost structure going forward.
In terms of capital, we want to maintain the bank very solid. Why. Because Mediobanca, because of the brand, because of the business it operates, notably Wealth Management and CIB, has to be perceived always among the best capitalized bank. Having said that, and so basically also having a big difference between the minimum CET1, as you said, Azzurra, and the SREP requirement. When we talk about 100 basis points of M&A, you know, this M&A can come or cannot come, no, during the three years plan. Should we be in a position to deliver it, we can also increase the buyback so to arrive at 13.5%.
In terms of criteria, I mentioned that they have to be coherent with the industrial trajectory of the group, so they have to be focusing on fees and low capital absorption to accelerate our journey. Considering the plan of wealth management, which is very realistic but also very interesting, it is fair to say that we have raised our minimum target of possible M&A. In other words, as we are planning to have a net new money of EUR 10 billion every year, we won't do any transaction that have a similar size of AUM, because it will be a waste of time and a waste of focus.
We set up 100 basis points, or set aside 100 basis points, but in case we are not able to do M&A, or we grow our capital base even more, we will revisit our buyback to increase it from here to the end to the plan.
Thank you, Azzurra. Can we move to the next question, please?
We are now taking the next question. Please stand by. The next question from Antonio Reale from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hi, good morning, everyone. It's Antonio Reale from Bank of America. Thanks for the access to the divisional heads. I thought it was an insightful session. I have three questions, please. The first one, looking at some of your numbers, it looks like the Danish Compromise is set to stay, and that's what you assume in your numbers at least, which means that the capital consumption of your stake in Generali is much lower. The return on allocated capital deriving from your Generali stake will be even higher, which obviously increases the bar for you to replace it with an asset on the market without diluting your group ROE. My question is: How are you thinking about redeploying your Generali stake in a Danish Compromise regime?
My second question is on the outlook for costs and IT investments. You have budgeted IT investments over the plan horizon for EUR 230 million, which have gone up from the previous plan. I think also, of course, as part of the revenue outlook, I see you have a number of projects in the pipeline. Can you maybe talk about a bit more about this? Where do you see the biggest returns? And more importantly, how should we think about the cost base from here across the key divisions, and especially in Wealth Management, where you're targeting a big decline in cost-income ratio, I think to 60%? My last question on this is on the CIB allocation of capital.
Now, over the years, we've seen a number of European peers significantly shift the allocation of capital in their CIB businesses, which has almost systematically resulted in market share losses and lower revenues. Now you're targeting a big reduction in RWAs down 13% to EUR 17 billion. I'm well aware that your CIB is somewhat a different animal. You have a higher reliance of advisory, and you don't have a large balance sheet, but you're still targeting a steep revenue growth to EUR 900 million together with a steep de-risking of the RWAs. Can you maybe just talk a bit more and give us a little bit more color on the drivers of the revenue mix? I'm just trying to understand how you can achieve the RWA reduction and the revenue growth together. Thank you.
Thank you, Antonio. The Danish Compromise, as far as we know, this process of making it permanent is very advanced, and it will be completed by the end of the year. As you said, this makes even more interesting remain exposed to the insurance stake, on the insurance sector for a financial and return standpoint, as you rightly said. This doesn't change our approach in potential transforming M&A. Why? Should we get the possibility to have a deal which is making our journey in Wealth Management as it is a priority, faster and bolder, we will look at it with great attention, even at the cost of having some degree of EPS dilution, at least on stated EPS. Maybe on cash EPS, it can be different.
We have open availability to see those kind of deals. Nothing changes in this respect. In cost and IT, basically, you know, our cost, you have to always remember that part of our costs are variable, no? Are variable because are linked to revenue. This is true in CIB, but this is also true in wealth management. Part of our cost base is going to be fluctuating depending on revenue. The second part is linked to the fact that we want to enhance our distribution network. Big part, as we said, is gonna be on front office. 70% of the cost increase is gonna be to improve our distribution capacity in wealth management and CIB.
Hence, I think that, at the end, revenue trajectory, you know, think about ARMA is already there. Part of the growth in revenue is already achieved. NII trend is there, and with the rebranding of CheBanca! in Mediobanca Premier, which is a very bold project, we think that TFA will come and fee will come. Basically, we think that sticking to 44% of cost income is more than doable. I will leave the floor to Giuseppe on elaborating, on giving more details on CIB capital allocation and new discipline RWA.
Thank you, Alberto. Let me start by saying a couple of things. First of all, we assume that there's gonna be a reduction of EUR 2.5 billion RWA, which is the result of a EUR 3.5 billion optimization driven, as we said earlier, starting in 2025, driven by LGD NPD improvement. At the same time, we assume a EUR 1 billion increase, mainly devoted to markets and to lending. That's gonna be a new business related to RWA growth. Second, if we look at our loan portfolio, it is true that it's constant around EUR 20 billion, that doesn't mean that there is no new production. Every year during the plan, there's gonna be a contractual decollage and repayment and new production coming in.
This will accompany, obviously, new deals coming in particular, for example, on the acquisition financing side. This is on how we see the capital. Why we think it's sustainable, as you asked, the growth of the revenues. Let's take one piece at a time. On the corporate finance side, we said that the main driver is Arma. Arma has been operating for 30 years on a pure advisory model, and we believe that the value of that is the expertise, the tech expertise, also the synergies in our platform in Italy and Spain will be the content we deliver, will not be reliant on capital. The other initiatives. The other initiatives in corporate finance are diversified: energy transition, mid-cap, and private capital. All of these, again, rely on competence.
Energy transition is a differentiated knowledge we have developed with a number of deals we have already done, and we are accumulating going forward. Mid-capital, if you look at the last two years in Italy, we have secured a significant number of sell side, never relying on capital allocation. It's an expertise that we intend to roll out internationally. On private capital, I said it earlier, we don't believe that to win, as we have already shown in the last year, important mandates with capital, private capital providers, it will be only down to financing. It will be for a player like us, down to competence, ideas, and networking. Finally, on markets, we have developed a strategy on four pillars as we have seen. Take the BTP specialist objective that we have to become. We wanna become a BTP specialist.
That is very RWA efficient. Again, a visible flow of revenues going forward, which does not rely on a significant RWA absorption. Clearly, when you look at acquisition financing, if there are the right opportunities, we are gonna deploy capital. As we have done in the past, we are risk discipline and where we see significant cross-selling.
Antonio, just to give you also more colors and comfort on achieving RWA reduction in CIB, no? I refer to the slide, number 17 of the presentation. Basically this is coming, this EUR 3.5 billion are coming from IRB model rollout completion, fundamental review of trading book and basically offset IRB in consumer, no? Out of these four, I would say that three are in our pockets, in the sense that are managed by us, in the sense that we don't rely from other authorization. Basically the LGD is simply gaining back what has been taken out through the last model revalidation, where we have been brought to 45% density, and by 2025 we will gonna go back to 40.
The fundamental review of trading book is a managerial different approach to the certificate business we do in Mediobanca CIB, and IRB is in Compass, is offset by Basel IV. Three out of four are, I shouldn't say in our pockets, but are, due to come with the, in the due date.
Thank you.
Thank you.
We can move to the next question, please.
We are now taking the next question. The next question from Luigi De Bellis from Equita SIM. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Good morning, thank you for the interesting presentation. Four question if I may. The first one, can you elaborate on the progression of revenues trend during the years of the plan to reach the EUR 3.8 billion revenues in 2026, if it's expected to be linear or not, and in particular on the NII trend? The second question, in the Wealth Management, your plan assume a very strong net inflows, EUR 10 billion per year. You are basically assuming to grow at more of the most aggressive peers in Italy. My question is, how much of this number is from existing financial advisor network, and how much from recruitment? Can you elaborate also on the new products to catch this important growth? My third question is on the equity portfolio ex Assicurazioni Generali.
Can you give us more colors on the strategy for this part of portfolio? The last question, a more general question. What are the actions or a plan B in case of GDP growth turn out to be significantly lower than expected? How much of revenues growth is linked or correlated to the market context on interest rates, and how much headroom do you have to adjust the cost base if the revenues leverage prove to be less effective than anticipated? Thank you.
Thank you, Luigi. First of all, I want to say that our plan is not a hockey stick. It's not that we reached EUR 3.8 billion the last year of plan. It is a progressive, constant improvement throughout the years. In this, in this field or in this journey, we will have low single -digit increase in NII, constant, and low double- digit increase in fees, constant. I answer you on the third and the fourth question. I leave Francesco Saverio Vinci on the second, on Wealth Management. Equity stake Generali. Generali, you know, as I said, the contribution, the cash flow, the decorrelation is such that it's only positive to remain exposed to this sector and asset. Having said that, we remain flexible to all option that every time we will compare with the keep.
Our strategy is keep. Every single six- month we have internal discussion about if we have to redeploy more capital, we don't have more capital to be redeployed, should we take it from equity stake or from elsewhere? Should we find better opportunity, more industrially sounder opportunity to do it, we will not have any hesitation. On the other end, we would not touch the exposure without reinvesting it in a sounder, more profitable way. The GDP, well, you know, our plan is not really geared on a specific macro, no. Mediobanca normally tends to over-perform in macro which are weaker. The only important part, I would say, is that not having too much volatility, because if we have very unstable market, very, I would say shaky market, no?
You have this kind of three, three, nine months of shaky market, you don't have corporate transaction and you have clients in Wealth Management that are more conservative. Extreme volatility can be 1 element. The 2nd, a big unemployment jump, because the unemployment jump is the only real ratio that can impact Compass. Having said that, you know, as for today, we don't forecast neither of them. Unemployment is going to set a market, the labor market is very tight, is on the contrary, volatility is there but not extreme. I will now leave the floor to Saverio on Wealth Management progression.
Okay, thank you. I don't believe really that EUR 10 million, EUR 10 billion, it's a too ambitious target. Think that we made EUR 9 billion two years ago and EUR 7 billion this year with a different market environment. On the segment, I can say you that we will do more or less one-third in Private by new hirings and two-third organic. In Premier, we will be in the region of half and half. In terms of contribution, we will have the Premier segment for EUR 4 billion, EUR 5 billion from Private, and EUR 1 billion from asset management. In terms of products, there is an increase in discretionary mandates because this kind of product is core for product clients, but will be core also for Premier clients. We have to do better there.
The funds will double, and we'll have launched just few months ago our delegated mandates. That will be a big part of the new products. In terms of, let's say, qualified assets that are in administration, we have a great increase in certificates also because the Premier segment will be able to understand to better, which is the value of this kind of products. I think that's all. Thank you.
Thank you very much.
Okay. We can move to the next question, please.
We are now taking the next question. The next question from Marco Nicolai from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hi. Thanks for taking my questions. I've got a generic one first. What if rates are higher than you expect? Is that going to impact the trajectory of Wealth Management or CIB fees? I'm just trying to assess, you know, if this plan is bulletproof for inflation remain higher than the market currently expects. If that's the case, do you think there could be a net positive EPS impact compared to the scenario you're using now, or net negative? Can you provide a split between NII and other revenues for your 2026 target? Another question on Wealth Management. The EUR 10 billion target actually looks, you know, pretty high compared to what you did in the past. I understand that's a yearly average.
Can you give us any sense in terms of how front load or back-end load are going to be this EUR 10 billion? Can we expect already EUR 10 billion from the next financial years, or that will come, you know, more towards the later years of your business plan? Thank you very much.
I will answer. Thank you for your question. I will answer the first and the fourth, and will ask Jessica to answer the other two. What happens if rates are higher than expected? Basically, we will have some improvement from the banking book and the Wealth Management NII. Because basically, banking book and Wealth Management would be great contributor to NII in higher interest rates. While Compass will be less, with higher rates, we will have more NII. In terms of fees, we...
You know, for CIB, as Giuseppe was saying, I think the market will model through, in particular in 2024, we are seeing already today that M&A dialogue and the IPO dialogue is much better than used to be six- month ago. I think that the market will model through an environment where interest rates are going to stay higher. This is what we are seeing in America, we'll see in Europe as well. Having said that, in investment banking, we forecast a rebound of the market starting from 2024. In Wealth Management, I have to say that basically, we do expect EUR 10 billion of net new money starting from next year. As Saverio was saying, the big part is coming from existing sales force. Huh?
Think about what happened recently in our Private Banking with the hire of the senior banker from Credit Suisse. We are seeing our model much more attractive for bankers and clients. This EUR 10 billion, which are not that much different, as Saverio was saying, because we did EUR 7 billion this year, but with some deposit decrease, and we have done EUR 9 billion two years ago. In this forecast, we didn't put liquidity or money motion event higher than in the past. On the contrary, we have forecasted a bit lower. I think they are manageable.
Thank you, Alberto. Regarding sensitivity and cost and inflation, our sensitivity is currently, for every 50 bips higher or lower, EUR 50 million on net interest income higher or lower. In the second part of the business plan, given the fact that we are forecasting in the second half a decreasing of interest rates, what we have in mind is to reduce the sensitivity at basically to half, so + 25 or - 25, + 25, less EUR 25 million of net interest income. In term of inflation, in the scenario that you can see in the slide that we have given you, we are forecasting a very high inflation for this year, coming a little bit down for the next year, and definitely, go to a, let's say, minimal level in 2026.
The overall impact is the 90 bips of cost that we set in the slide relative to the cost with this scenario. Should inflation stay higher for longer, this 90 bips could become 120, more or less this is the sensitivity. Thank you. Now we can move to the next question. Thank you.
We are now taking the next question. The next question from Christian Carrese from Intermonte. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Hi, thank you for taking my question. Christian Carrese from Intermonte. The first one is on capital distribution. I would like to understand, in case of larger acquisition, you are still committed to deliver EUR 3.7 billion total remuneration to shareholders. In other words, you would finance any acquisition through Generali stake disposal, or the current guidance on capital distribution could be revised in case of a major acquisition? The second one is on consumer credit business, especially the Buy Now, Pay Later business line. I was wondering if there is room to do some synergies with Compass also abroad, to do new loans abroad and not just in Italy. The first question is on cost of risk trajectory in the consumer credit division.
You are embedding a pickup in 2026 in terms of cost of risk. I was wondering for the next couple of years, also take into account the current overlays, do you have in mind a flattish cost of risk for the division? Thank you.
Thank you, Christian. In capital distribution in case of big M&A. Here we have a lot of optionality. Why? Because as we don't see big M&A in basically in CIB, nor in consumer, most likely any big M&A would have to do with the Wealth Management. There, should we achieve a sounder group, industrially sounder, means having more fees and more profitability compared of course to the actual plan, we will be available to run the bank at a lower CT1. Why? Because the bank will be less risky and more capital light. In that case, we can lower our CT1 ratio minimum level below 13.5. This leave a lot of optionality about capital distribution also in the case of large deal. In terms of priority, we stick to what we said also in the past.
70% payout is, I would say dividend in our hierarchy is more important than buybacks, no? Should we have something in case of large M&A, which as I said can also open more optionality, would be more the share buyback rather than the dividend policy.
I take the question on Consumer Credit first. Buy Now, Pay Later. Yeah, you are spot on. Buy Now, Pay Later is a good strategic lever to go through foreign markets. As I said, first conceptually it is very clear synergic in the sense that we will use the partners distribution, so not having to invest directly in physical distribution abroad, and we will serve the merchant clients abroad, and we will do it. This is very important for Buy Now, Pay Later with a very gradual risk approach.
Remember that duration are like six- month, and so you can have not a problem of model estimation because in a relatively short period of time you have the real life cycle of a product and you can hardly measure what the risk is, and we are already completely comfortable with the data. Now, an additional piece of information for you, we are already active in Switzerland already today. We are At the moment, we don't have a Compass presence in Switzerland, but together with partner we are already accumulating data about cost of risk, behavior, lifetime value. Sooner we will be ready to expand into Switzerland, but with a very cautious approach, as I said. From a conceptual point of view, that's a lever for all the foreign markets that may be attractive.
Very synergic with Compass for foreign strategy, as you said. Second question was about the dynamics of cost of risk. Probably you also wanted some color about what happens between year one and year three. We gave you a clear direction saying that the so-called industrial cost of risk is growing from 150 basis points to 210 basis points, and this raise is linear, so you should expect a gradual increase over the plan. No peaks or valleys. The second piece of information, which is important for you, is how timing of overlays use. First important point is that this is a plan. Basically we will release overlays only according to real data about default rates.
In real life, we will see if default rates will allow the overlay release that we are assuming. These are our estimates at the moment. Then reinforcing this, I told you before that we will release around 80% of the total overlays we have. They are in addition of EUR 200 million. And to give you an idea, we will release it roughly one quarter first year, one quarter second year, and the majority half in the last one. Exactly because real life, real data must prove the soundness of our release plan. Thank you.
Okay, thank you.
Thank you.
We move to the next question. That is the last one by phone, we will move to the chat questions. Thank you.
We are now taking the question from Giovanni Razzoli from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Good afternoon. Good morning to everybody. It's actually Giovanni Razzoli, thank you for taking my questions. The first one is clarification on your sensitivity to rates. Back to what Jessica said at the very beginning, and to compare apples with apples with other banks, just to clarify, if rates were to remain at the current levels, so basically 100, 150 basis points higher that you have in the plan, we should have something like almost up to EUR 100 million of higher NII at group level. That's my question. The second question relates to the Mediobanca, you know, profit profile in three years time. We've seen that there is growth across all the divisions.
Can you share with us what would be the percentage contribution of, from pre-tax profit from the Wealth Management in 2026 vis-à-vis what you expect in 2023, so that we can have an idea of how, you know, the profit profile will evolve over time. The last question on the targets, just a real clarification. For 2023, you are guiding to a net EPS target of EUR 1.50, which seems to imply a quite significant deceleration in the Q4, in the last quarter vis-à-vis the run rate of the previous one. I was wondering whether there is some kitchen sinking in the last quarter ahead of the business plan so that you can build up some buffer. That's the questions on the targets.
The 2 last questions are on the M&A. You've disclosed. You invested a lot with bolt-on acquisitions in the last, you know, five to 10 years with around EUR 800 million.
Of capital location. I've seen that you also share with us what is the revenue contribution of those businesses to the group levels. Can you share with us what is the contribution also in terms of profits? The last one on M&A, sorry to ask you this again. You mentioned, you've been very, very clear, mentioning the fact that you can leverage on your Generali stake, that you have a lot of flexibility. Shall we take your flexibility in case of M&A were to emerge in the Wealth Management as the possibility to fully dispose your Generali stake? Thank you very much.
I will ask, Jessica to answer basically the first, 2 question, and maybe I can co-complete the answer of the last 2.
Okay. Grazie, Alberto. Regarding the sensitivity, we received also the your question by chat. Basically, if we should the level of interest rates be 100 basis points higher in 2026 compared to the scenario that we have now, basically we would have an EPS higher by 3% compared to the target that we have given in the plan. The second question, the contribution of the segment, how we expect the core division contribution change.
Basically, we will have the CIB and the Wealth Management contribution growing both, and, if we want to look at level of, Gross Operating Profit risk adjusted in order to have a fair comparisons, what we have in mind is to have a CIB division contribution to go up from the current 20%-25%, and the Wealth Management from the current 15%-25%. The contribution of Consumer is expected to decrease from the current 37% to 32%-33%. You answer the other two.
Yeah. In terms of Giovanni, you are right in terms of Q3, in the sense that Q4, sorry, in the sense that we have to differentiate the operative trends from the bottom line. Where exactly is true what you said, in order to prepare the bank better for the future, we have done and we will do transaction and intervention to prepare it in the better way for the next year's plan. One element is Revalea. Revalea on one end had a sort of important change in not doing any more business. This will have roughly EUR 15 million, EUR 17 million impact in the P&L. We have some items that you said kitchen sinking. We call it prepare the bank better for the next year's plan.
The M&A. Yes. In theory, what you said is possible. Should we look at a large transaction where we need a lot of capital, we can dispose all the Generali stake. Everything has to be driven by financial industrial metrics. We don't have any dogma here. The only dogma is the bank stronger in terms of footprint and industrial trajectory? Remains the bank sound in terms of capital? If yes, we can go to the full disposal of Generali. I have to say that normally, you know, capital have to stay even below 13%, 13.5% at the level which is good for rating agency, for clients, for counterparty in business.
Thank you, Alberto.
Thank you very much.
We have finished with the questions by line. I would like to answer to question arrived by chat. I see here from Domenico. Ciao, Domenico. He asking, "Can you please help us to understand what could be the evolution of NII and fee over the course of the plan?
I think that we have already answered partly, but Domenico, we can repeat, which is basically a regular growth, not a hockey stick, with basically low single- digit growth of NII and low double- digit growth in fees.
Okay, thank you. From Adele, she asking, one is already answered. Two new question. One is, did you embed in your targets the removal of the SRF fund? Yes, by EUR 60 million, while what we are still taking into consideration are the EUR 25 million of the contribution to the other funds. Maybe more important, could you elaborate on the cost of risk guidelines, starting from the guidelines of 160, 170 bips target for the consumer finance at group level, I guess, Adele.
Yes. Here, we have to differentiate with or without overlay. As I said, with overlay, using the overlay as we plan to do both in Consumer, which is the major part, and for a small piece in CIB, we plan to stay in the region of 50-55 basis point. If you net of this, net of the contribution of this is going to be more in the region of 65-70 at industrial level.
Thank you. From Anna Maria Benassi, we see can you please clarify how the EUR 1 billion share buyback will be split over the plan? If we have understood well, you will start in October 2023. Is correct that the current EUR 0.7 billion dividends paid in November are excluded from the EUR 2.7 billion of the plan? Yes, they are. Alberto, if you want to elaborate.
The buyback, we will fix annually, the amount, so it's an amount in money, not in shares today, but it means buying roughly EUR 90 million of shares. We plan to delete as much as 80 because the rest is gonna be used for, basically on one end, buying the rest of Arma, and buying the rest of Arma will contain the overall capital drain in 30-35 basis points and serving the bonus, the shares program related to bonus. Every year we will decide. This, it is likely that we will go progressively. We'll do, like 20%-25% max this year and, I would say more into the two remaining years. You know, every year we will fix the amount.
It will be from less than a third to more than a third every year.
Thank you. There is another piece of question from Anna. Could you please tell us where do you see the major risk for the execution of the business plan?
Well, as I said, the plan looks demanding, but it's, it is in line of what we have achieved in the last two years, starting from a stronger industrial footprint. Because three years ago, we didn't have the private investment banking model. We didn't have the Mid Corporate in CIB. We didn't have Arma. We didn't have the digital platform of Compass. Today, the group is much stronger, no? As I said in the past answer, the macro becomes more challenging for us, not with higher or lower interest rates or bigger or smaller GDP. It becomes more challenging if it is highly volatile market, if markets are highly volatile and/or if we have big unemployment. This is going to impact more.
Honestly, the first one is more difficult to be predicted, volatility in the market. As long as it remains normal to mid-high, it's okay. If it becomes like in the quarters of Ukrainian declaration of war or the start of the COVID, it changes of course the possibility to deliver the plan. Unemployment, we have said honestly, if there is something that is not possible to forecast in terms of big unemployment, is that because the labor market is very tight and will continue to be tight. Our progression is not based, Anna, on single division to do the vast majority. We rely on a number of pool of revenue, we have the four business. In this business, for instance, Wealth Management target seems demanding, but we have incorporated some conservatism.
First of all, we didn't have any performance fee embedded, and we didn't put any NAV improvement in three years. This is a big element of conservatism, because normally in three years from the start, you will have an increase in NAV, and this will command a higher level of management fee. We have not forecasted any increase in marginality, 90 basis points is something we can improve, but for a reason of prudence, in particular, moving towards Mediobanca Premier, selling more Mediobanca product, I think we can improve even more the marginality of Premier. For a reason of prudence, we stick to these 90 bips. As well, we stick to same marginality in CIB and in consumer. Some numbers appears demanding. In reality, if you go through, they are not.
Okay, thank you. We don't see any more questions. We really want to thank you. Maybe, Alberto, do you want to.
Thank you very much. Most of you are following us since many years, so it's a joy to share this evolution. As I said in my statement, this is an exciting journey for the next three years, and it's very exciting because also we can share it with all of you. Thank you very much for your attendance.
Thank you.
Thank you.