Q&A session on the results on September 30, 2025, of the Mondadori Group. This session is for analysts and investors. Press is connected in the listen-only mode. If you want to ask a question, please press star plus one on your phone. Please ask your questions through fixed telephones. Thank you. First question from Fabio Pavan from Mediobanca.
Yes, good morning. Thank you. I have a couple of questions, actually. Based on the presentation you shared, you have anticipated a very good trend for the trade in October, and I just wanted to know more about the expectations for the last couple of months of this year. Then when it comes to education, based upon the presentation, I have seen that you have described a very positive campaign. My question is, could you just give us a little more color about that?
Hello, Fabio. Thank you very much for the two questions that are very much focused. Thank you for two questions anyway, because if you do not ask two questions, we get worried that—I'm just joking, of course. I start from the slide anticipating the month of October following the quarterly numbers that we have approved.
We have exactly the same trend, plus 7% and more in this previous quarter. Over and beyond the economic figures from the point of view of trade and retail, the month of October continues with the same trend, which is for us absolutely important. There is a difference that you might have noted in October for the market versus the quarter between July 1 and September 30, because market, differently from the trade section, has a minus sign. The minus sign for October is to be attributed to the last negative discontinuity of public endowments to support that. We did not mention this concerning other historical projects by the government. There is a teacher's bonus of EUR 500 for teachers, which can be spent in cultural consumption, so to say.
Our estimate of how much this is being spent in terms of books and not just trade is approximately EUR 50 million. Last year, the availability of this money to teachers, because every year the date always changes, and the first few weeks are, of course, the busiest in terms of expenditure by teachers. Last year, this bonus was available starting early in October. This year, in actuality, from October 2025, these resources have not yet been made available. This will happen earlier on next year because the government wishes to expand the number of teachers, so those temporarily hired in particular. The beneficiaries' list will be ready over the next few weeks. October will be the last month for us publishers in the trade section. Last year, the resources are being made available in October.
This is the reason why we are interpreting the weaker book market in Italy, minus 5% in slide number five of our presentation. Mondadori, in spite of this, is stronger than this weakness because we close October with a plus 7.7%, slightly higher than the performance of the previous quarter. Now, good news are not over yet. I am anticipating that we have the numbers of the 45th week, that is the end of October, the trend on the market up to the 44th week. The 45th, whose data were being published now, has the following value. The market closes the week with a plus 5.6% versus the minus 5% of the whole month of October, and Mondadori is plus 14.8%. To talk about the impact of this last week, in October, we still have another eight weeks to the end of the year.
With this last week, this 0.7 minus, which was the last bit of negativity to be absorbed over the past few months, based on this last week, the minus 0.7 becomes 0.4%. In and also the market from minus 2.4 in just a week shifts onto minus 2.2%. I give you an accurate answer to your question, Fabio. Our expectation at the beginning of the year was of a stable market and Mondadori rather stable or slightly growing. At seven weeks from the end of the year, we see that the market is slightly weaker, and therefore it is possible for the market to close with a slight decline versus the previous year. Whilst for Mondadori, we have a growth versus the previous year.
We have not yet quantified, but the market share, as you might have noted in October, among other things of our publishing houses in the trade sections from 27.7% to 28.2%. It is a meaningful growth, which is being measured over 10 months of this year. It is not just the beginning of the year where you have the ups and downs in market shares. What we have announced earlier on this year as a guidance is actually taking place. Weak start in the first six months and recovery in the second six months. The Third Quarter in October and now the first week of November have numbers for the publishing houses of the Mondadori Group in terms of sellout even sturdier than what we have imagined. Getting to the education section, our expectations actually were being recorded.
When we told you don't look at the period until October when the timing effect is almost over, we see that in terms of margin and in terms of earnings, we are indeed in line with last year. In the next few weeks to come, we're going to see whether, as we imagined, there can be something less being shipped and returns as well. We're talking about fractions of percentage points, and we shall see the compensation. On the question on the outcome of the campaign of our publishing houses this year versus the last past five years, probably I haven't emphasized this in my presentation as I should. The growth in all the educational segments, which are worth 0.7%, almost one percentage point from 31.8% market share to 32.5%. In actuality, at value, this can have a rather relevant impact over the next few years to come.
I'll tell you more. The market share of the education sections are being measured by AIE ministry volume-wise and not value-wise. They measure by adoptions of books with a high cover price and low cover price. You count the volume, not the value. If we were to imagine that this almost one percentage point, that is 0.7 to be accurate, has to be applicable as a benefit to the earnings, out of the overall value, our publishing houses at the end might have a positive contribution quantifiable between EUR 5 million and EUR 8 million of earnings more. You do not see it in the accounts in 2025, not even in 2026, because new adoptions have to do with books starting from the head of the cycle, as it is technically being called.
If in a three-year school you adopt a new book this year and I increase my quota, this book will remain in use for the first, second, and third year this year. I take into consideration only the first year and then the following year two-thirds and then the overall figure on the third year. It is not just an appreciation of what we're doing with our own educational platforms. It is also a signal which triggers an inertia which will last from two to three years before getting into a full cycle. We might have explained it better also without your question, Fabio. I hope I was clear enough,
very clear indeed. Thank you.
Next question is Chiara Pampurini from Intermonte SIM. Thank you.
Good afternoon. I have a couple of questions. The first one has to do with the media. We have seen a theme which leads you to a certain choice. Is it going to be still a negative effect for the next six months? A few anticipations whether you have already got market data for this particular six months. The second question has to do with retail division. There are revenues of 4% to 7% EBITDA. What are the factors allowing for this performance? E-commerce was weak, and it is also due to the launching of a platform. Is the launching over? Has there been a less decline in the fourth quarter?
The first question on the media and advertising, and then maybe Alessandro will help me if I forget to say something. As you know, the collections that are being sold together with other titles or other newspapers with which we sign agreements with.
The trend is structurally declining, like the weekly, the monthly, or the newspaper. There is a significant decline, which is always double digits in the first two years. The first was one, but it was always minus 10% to 20%, of course. This is a market where we have a rather limited media print. I believe that in million euros on a yearly basis, we are already single digit. The decline that you have seen is connected with the first nine months, which is nothing surprising or not in line with our expectations. I am being told, but I will not be able to say more about it, that the last collection that we have launched, which are the medals and with cartoons, etc., in actuality is performing rather well. The fourth quarter should not be worse.
Maybe we might have a small or a limited improvement, but still a decline, minus 10% and minus 20% over the past few years. I don't know, Alessandro, whether you want to add anything about those collections. No. What you said is absolutely in line. These are an element of revenues which is really marginal, which does not really get to double digit on a yearly basis. Therefore, this particular decline, which is structural and we do not have a different trend in the near future, does not really play a role on our level of revenues and profitability. In terms of revenues, I have looked up the information to give you a more accurate indication. We're talking about EUR 7 million. 10% means EUR 700,000 of less revenues. Therefore, we have EUR 1.4 million.
Alessandro was saying we're talking not only in terms of small numbers on revenues, but also a very limited margin. On the media, we gave you the market trend in September. In September, as you can see, there is a continuing trend. I'm talking in general about all media from television and so on, not only advertising in terms of newspaper and magazines or digital. All media, with the only exception of the radio, are declining. July and August and September confirm a trend of weakness, a trend which is partly seen not only by us in particular, but also in terms of the trend about consumption. I hear a voice. I don't know whether you also hear the same voice. Anyway, I'll go on. If you have problems or noise, just let me know and we shall try to solve them.
I was saying in September, we still have a weak month in terms of the anticipation for the month of October. Months are still weak now. November and December, as far as my experience is concerned, are rather peculiar months because the season, the Christmas season, the investment in terms of margins and advertising may change numbers. In general, September and October are months with a minus sign, which is horizontal on the various media projects and actions. Anything else to say?
You want to give an answer on retail and performance where we, if I have understood you well, we have better revenues in terms of performance versus the market because we have a grow, which is better than the physical channel.
When it comes to e-commerce, we anticipated that we were launching a new e-commerce platform, which is more impactful and innovative from our own point of view. Migration is over and over the last weeks in October. The thing that I may anticipate, Alessandro, you may comment as well, my anticipation is that the last week where I told you that there is plus 5 point whatever the market and 14 point whatever Mondadori, also the e-commerce section, which is small in our retail business, is back to grow rather well. The exposure of our retail to Mondadori Editore, which overperformed the market, of course, explains the reason why we grew more than the market in terms of retail chain. We continue to have extremely positive results. The current year has a decline of openings, which should be resumed more next year.
We focused very much on retail as an element to ease our growth. Thank you. Thank you very much.
Next question by Milo Silvestre, Equita. To you, the floor.
Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I have three questions. The first one has to do with plus 15% in the trade. Any further element you can tell us to help us explain this acceleration? The second question has to do with the nine months. EBITDA is EUR 4 to 5 million lower than last year, whilst the guidance focuses on a low single-digit growth. I would like to know more about that, besides the fact that there is going to be an acceleration in terms of sales in the trade business. The third one is an update on M&A. Anything to say about that?
Before giving the floor to Alessandro on the M&A, I'll tell you about the two factors that, in my opinion, explain why there is a +15% for our publishing houses. There are two factors. The first one is connected with the fact that over these few weeks, you have the sum up of heavy launches that were started after summer, in particular in September. That is Dan Brown, Ken Follett, etc., etc. We sum up the almost equally important launches of the last couple of weeks, which we define as being related to November. We have two months of important launches. I give you two amazing numbers. We are at week nine from the launching of Dan Brown's book. Sell out was 200,000 copies, 196,900 copies, +6% than what he sold, which was already amazing eight years ago with his previous book. Mr.
Ken Follett, which is the other big title which we launched only seven weeks ago, we are almost getting to 100,000 copies only in seven weeks, which is a launching period. Now we have the other new books to be summed up to these two. These two, which I have mentioned, will continue and will be top of the charts also earlier on next year. Besides this very positive phenomenon, there has been as well a second phenomenon connected with a promotional campaign which was being launched by Amazon only on some titles. Amazon had a structural weakness over the past few weeks, not only on books. Last week, they launched a discount campaign on a number of important titles. All publishers, including Mondadori, benefited from it.
This probably explains the big jump both by Mondadori and the market, which more than compensated the negative effect of the teacher's bonus, which in actuality started early in October. I believe that this is the answer to your question on the +15%. When it comes to the EBITDA delta versus last year, that is this EUR 4 million to EUR 5 million differential in terms of EBITDA, how do we think we can fill it up in order to reach the guidance goal that was confirmed? I'm under the impression that in the final part of the year, the book market, and incidentally, remember that we haven't yet had a single euro in terms of contribution. At the end of December, we should have had part of those EUR 50 million put aside for us.
I believe that this is going to give us a great or at least a good satisfaction. Looking at the total consolidated number, as you were saying in the parallel, in actuality, this hides a trend which is very meaningful over this third quarter this year. I am telling you that trade at the end of the six months had a deficit of revenues to be filled equal to EUR 8.5 million in a Q3, which is less heavy than the Q4 volume-wise because the coming Q4 is the heaviest quarter from the point of view of sales. Both for our trade and retail divisions, this gap over six months in a lighter quarter recovers almost EUR 6 million. Eventually, it is EUR 2 point whatever million less revenues for this period.
I add on that at the end of last year, in December, in actuality, we had an extraordinary devaluation connected to our warehouse, which weighed in for more than EUR 1 million. This is not necessary this year because our situation is cleaner. This gap to fill of EUR 4 to 5 million versus Q4 last year, if you see the dynamic of Q3 and the trend on the Q4 volume with a market which holds, is definitely in line. M&A. Let's say that we are in an advanced phase of a negotiation within the framework of the digital business. It is a project with a size which is definitely unusual, nothing transformational, of course. I do not want to feed excessive excitement, but size-wise, this is not part of what we are used to, especially in the digital business. Usually, these projects are always single-digit ones.
I believe that by the end of this year, we may announce it. For the time being, we do not see any specific issue from the execution or other points of view, like double-checking information given to us in the preliminary stage of this particular project.
Thank you.
At the moment, there are no other questions boxed. I give you the floor back for the final greeting.
I thank you most all-heartedly. Of course, we follow with a great deal of attention the last weeks of this year in order to close positively and hit all our goals. Thank you for being here. We will meet with you next time.
This is a chorus call operator. The session is over. You can disconnect your phones. Thank you very much.