Good afternoon. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. Welcome and thank you for joining the Piaggio third quarter 2026 financial results conference call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Should anyone need assistance during the conference call, they may signal an operator by pressing star and zero on their telephone. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Raffaele Lupotto, Head of Investor Relations of Piaggio. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you very much. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Piaggio Group first nine months of 2026 financial results conference call. The conference call will be hosted by Alessandra Simonotto, Piaggio Group Chief Financial Officer, and myself. The slide support in today's presentation are available on the Piaggio Group website. Before we begin, as usual, I would like to remind you that during today's call, we may make forward-looking statements based on Piaggio's current expectation and projections about future events. By their nature, these statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. These factors are discussed in the safe harbor statement on page two of today's presentation. With that, I think that we can start immediately the Q&A session.
Thank you. This is the Chorus Call conference operator. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone telephone. To remove yourself from the question queue, please press star and two. Please pick up the receiver when asking questions. Anyone who has a question may press star and one at this time. The first question is from Monica Bosio, Intesa Sanpaolo.
Yes. Good afternoon, and thanks for taking my questions. I have three. I will ask one at a time. The first one is on the back of the sound and better than expected results in the third quarter. Are you still confident in reaching the consensus figures for 2026, flagging revenues at EUR 1.56 billion and an EBITDA at EUR 265 million with a margin at 16.9%? Apart from the P&L, given the strong free cash flow generation, how do you see your guidance of roughly EUR 500 million of net debt by year-end? Maybe net debt could be better. This is the first.
Good afternoon. I am Alessandra Simonotto. What about our expectation for the fourth quarter and for the end of the year? Yes, more or less, we are working, and we think that the actual consensus we have is something that we work for achieving it. About in terms of net sales, more or less, also in terms of EBITDA, and of course, in term of net financial position.
Okay, thank you. Regarding the next year, I know it is early, but I know that the company is going to introduce new vehicles for the Indian market in the two-wheel segment, and also the market in the light commercial vehicle segment in India is keeping strong. Can you give us a rough indication of what is the growth rate the company is expecting for the next year in India?
Monica, Raffaele speaking. Essentially, providing you the growth rate is not that easy. We foresee growth both in light commercial vehicle and two-wheeler, and we can confirm that we are ready to launch several new scooters for the Indian market, as we said in prior conference call. Clearly, those new vehicles will boost our performance in term of volumes and revenues in the region. Clearly, the trend is positive. We have the preliminary data for October and market data, and are still good in India. We are very, very focused on India, both for light commercial vehicles, domestic market, two-wheelers, and the export market that is performing extremely well for light commercial vehicles. This is what we can tell you. We remain positive for India.
Thank you. My final question, and then I come back to the queue, is on 2027. There is a mounting inflation, both on the logistic cost side, but also for the components side. If this year the group will achieve a 16.9% margin, do you see this as sustainable for next year, giving the increasing headwinds on the cost side? Do you have a rough indication of your logistic cost in term of ratio on the net revenues and also in term of components? An indication could be useful to see if this 16.9% margin could be sustainable also for the next year. Thank you.
Monica, Alessandra speaking. About 2027 and all this kind of cost and the inflation connected. As you understand, we are facing a lot of particular situation from a geopolitical point of view that affected 2026, and as of now, didn't change the situation. We wait for what the election in U.S., about also the election in Spain and the election in France could give to the economical background as a result. But in this moment, we can say that as useful, we will work to get the best result in terms of EBITDA, both in absolute term and also in percentage. We will try to work as we are able to do to maintain the efficiency that we have got in these years.
If we are to face another war, another situation in which something happen everywhere, we could not be able to do something, just like anyone else. We will work with the same effort that we put in place in 2025 and in 2026. You have in your hand the results, because we are talking about September 2026, so you can understand what we have done till now. We will work in the same way, with the same effort. But in this moment, I can't assure anyone that we will achieve a 16.9% or a 16.95% or a 16.85%. It is too much.
Okay. I got it.
Not because Piaggio. What I want to assure to every one of you is this is not a matter of Piaggio. It is a matter of what is working around Piaggio, just like all the other industry.
Yes, I fully understand. It's a problem across the board. Thank you very much.
You're welcome.
The next question is from Emanuele Gallazzi, Equita.
Good evening, everybody. Thank you for taking my questions. I have three questions. We can go one by one, which maybe is a little bit easier. Starting from the Western countries, we saw a 9% increase in volumes. I just would like to understand a little bit better, because I think in the presentation, you mentioned a very strong performance of Americas. So, any color about the evolution in the U.S. and what is driving this performance? Also looking at Europe, you are mentioning the fact that the dealer inventories are well below the prior year levels. If you can comment a little bit more on this, just to understand the level of inventories across Europe. Thank you.
Yes, Emanuele, Raffaele speaking. In Q3, we have a very good performance in Americas, coming both from U.S. and in term of volumes, you were mentioning, and also coming from Latin America. Year to date, the biggest contribution came from U.S. As the CEO highlighted in the prior calls, we are working a lot to also to strengthen our dealer network in U.S., and we are extremely successful with our products, and we are gaining market share in the scooter segment. This is the answer, and we see a good trend also looking at Q4. Concerning the dealer stock, clearly in absolute term, the dealer stock went down compared to last year, same period. Clearly, if you consider that the sales and sellout was higher, the ratio is even better. This is what we can tell you right now.
Just to understand, your expectation is to close at least a part of this gap in the next quarters, just to understand or to maintain this level of inventories. Can you hear me?
Yes, we can hear you.
Okay, sorry.
Can you?
As of now, we think that this level of inventory for our network could be useful for doing business also in 2027. Because with the kind of products we have, all the brands we have, it is important that when a final customer enters in one of our dealer shops, find all the products. This is why I personally think that the total amount we see now would be useful also for 2027.
Got it. The other question is about the, let's say, the cash generation. We have seen a, I would say, very good contribution from the working capital. Trade payables are up more than EUR 130 million. I was just trying to understand how structural is this trend or if it is a temporary movement, and if you can provide a little bit more color about what you expect in the fourth quarter in terms of net working capital and in 2027.
The trade payables are more or less connected to two different color. The first one is all the components and the services we buy for producing and sell vehicles, spare parts, and accessories. The second one is for CapEx. As you have seen in these first nine months, more or less, the CapEx are reducing, just like we said in the last conference call, because the most important part of the CapEx for the Porter NP6 product and also for all the cybersecurity CapEx are closed. In 2026, we have completed the CapEx for Moto Guzzi plant and Moto Guzzi site. I hope that you have already visited there, and we have done a very good job in Mandello. On the other side, from one side, I think that the CapEx will be lower than last year, not so much, more or less EUR 20 million.
On the other side, if the volumes are growing up, more or less, we have components to buy. It's something pretty connecting on our way of working and on the volumes that we are selling to our network.
Okay. The very last one is on the CapEx side. You are running at, I think, something around EUR 100 million for 2026 or around 6.5% the revenues, sorry. Do you think that this kind of level is kind of a new normal for 2027 and 2028, or do you expect a pickup in CapEx in the next two years?
I think that the CapEx in 2027 could be around 100 and 120. I think that the CapEx in 2027 could be more or less about 120 because the process must be new in three or four years, and the time you need for a new product, both an engine or a vehicle, from an R&D point of view, needs normally 24 months. Our brand, our range of product will be renewing on a normal basis, just like you see in all this year, and we are working also on this in the same way.
Very clear. Thank you.
You're welcome.
The next question is from Gianluca Bertuzzo, Intermonte.
Hello, everyone, and thank you for taking my question. We saw some weakness in mix in Europe. This was related to better scooters than Moto Guzzi, or there are other elements? Second question is about net financial expenses and tax rate for next year. What level we can assume? Thank you.
First question, you are right. It is the trend in scooter that is better than motorbikes. This is the answer. Then for next year, in term of tax rate, we haven't disclosed anything. The other question was, sorry, Gianluca?
Net financial expenses.
You need to wait next year.
Okay, thank you.
You are welcome.
As a reminder, if you wish to register for a question, please press star and one on your telephone. For any further questions, please press star and one on your telephone. Gentlemen, there are no more questions registered at this time.
Okay. Thank you. I think that we can stop, we can close the call now. Thank you, everyone, for attending this meeting, and if you need further info, you can call me later on. Thank you. Bye.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining. The conference is now over, and you may disconnect your telephone.