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Earnings Call: Q3 2024

Nov 1, 2024

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Good evening, everyone. Welcome to the third quarter of 2024 results conference call. Thank you very much for joining us late in this Friday evening. First, let me introduce our management, CEO Khun Somchai.

Somchai Lertsutiwong
CEO, AIS

Good evening .

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Yes, our Chief Consumer Business, Khun Pratthana.

Pratthana Leelapanang
Chief Consumer Business Officer, AIS

[Foreign language].

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

CEO Broadband, Khun Thee, ka.

Tee Aswapongpun
CEO of Broadband, AIS

Good morning , sorry, good evening .

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Our Acting Head of Enterprise Business, Khun Phupha.

Phupha Aekwanakul
Acting Head of Enterprise Business, AIS

[Foreign language].

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Our CFO, Khun Montri, kha.

Montri Khongkruephan
CFO, AIS

[Foreign language].

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

We also have Khun Nattiya, Head of Investor Relations and Compliance, ka.

Nattiya Poapongsakorn
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Good evening .

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Myself, Somruetai, will be briefing you on the result and running this session. The session will begin with a short brief and then go directly into Q&A. At this time, you may raise to ask the question through the chat box. Please type your name and also your corporate name. Kâ. Now, let me begin our presentation. The economy saw modest growth in the improved stability of tourism recovery. However, cautious consideration is needed given the lower GDP forecast due to weaker consumer sentiment, slower private investment, and recent flooding impact. In a modest growth environment with stable competition, we prioritize quality-focused business expansion and aim to build a resilient, efficient operation to drive solid performance. The mobile business grew healthily, driven by stable competition and increased data consumption trends, and also a steady increase in returning tourists.

We focus on enhancing customer value with quality network and service and a proactive retention program. Broadband maintained its growth with high-quality customer acquisition, bringing the subscriber base close to five million. We focus on upselling higher value packages and cross-selling innovative services. Integration is progressing on track. Enterprise non-mobile service benefiting from increased demand for EDS and cloud service. We had a large cloud project in the quarter, which boosted cloud revenue growth. The recent flood heavily affected customers in Thailand's northern and northeastern provinces. AIS experienced minimal impact, having proactively elevated base stations and generators above flood levels. We are closely monitoring the situation, extending payment periods for affected customers, and supporting local communities. In the third quarter, AIS launched green funding initiatives, including green bonds and green loans, to support sustainability-focused projects like expanding 5G networks in the rural areas. The rates will be announced on November 6.

Our nine-month performance exceeded guidance, benefiting from increased economic stability in the third quarter. The low season impact was also offset by economic stimulus and steady rise in tourism. We will continue our efforts and ensure the momentum of the third quarter performance continues. Consumer sentiment for this fourth quarter remains uncertain as GDP forecasts are revised down despite expected government stimulus and the high season. Lastly, we would like to highlight yesterday, AIS, in collaboration with Central Investigation Bureau, relaunched the 1185 platform, AIS Aunjai Report and End of Scammer. The customer can now quickly report the last received scam calls within five minutes after the call for blocking and investigation. The system will automatically retrieve the last number without requiring customers to remember the number.

And within the 48 hours after investigation, if the calling pattern of those numbers indicates suspicious activities, AIS will forward the information to the Central Investigation Bureau. And this is the end of our short brief. We'll start Q&A now. Please be reminded that you may raise to ask the question through the chat box with your name and corporate name. And also, please limit your questions up to three questions at a time to allow others to ask the questions, and then you can re-put your name again. Kà. We will have our first questions from Khun Ranjan from JP Morgan. Kà. Please.

Ranjan Sharma
Equity Research Analyst, JP Morgan

Hi, good evening. Can you hear me?

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Yes.

Yes.

Tee Aswapongpun
CEO of Broadband, AIS

Now, now I cannot hear you, Ranjan.

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

No, we can't hear you now.

Ranjan Sharma
Equity Research Analyst, JP Morgan

Hello?

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Can you turn?

Ranjan Sharma
Equity Research Analyst, JP Morgan

Is this better?

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Now we can hear you.

Ranjan Sharma
Equity Research Analyst, JP Morgan

Okay.

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Yes.

Ranjan Sharma
Equity Research Analyst, JP Morgan

Hi, good evening, and thank you so much for your time. Three questions. Firstly, you talked about the macro impact from flooding, but if you can share with us what are the recent trends that you're seeing in monthly revenues? Are you seeing growth from September onwards? That's the first question. The second is on the CapEx side, are there scenarios in which you see CapEx budget increasing from next year onwards? Because you've already built out the 5G network, you have the population coverage. Or can we expect CapEx to be in the similar ballpark as what we have seen? And lastly, on the cloud, if you can remind us your initiatives and what the take-up of the Oracle Alloy Cloud has been. Thank you.

Somchai Lertsutiwong
CEO, AIS

Okay. For the first one regarding the revenue growth, we continue on having the benefits, more or less the upside from the price repair following through this quarter, I mean, quarter three and quarter four. Flood impact, a small piece of those, not significant, so it's why you can see it's continuing on growing. It's minimal impact.

Montri Khongkruephan
CFO, AIS

Let me take on the question two on the CapEx, Ranjan. There's some delays on CapEx investment this year, but I think we will still keep the guidance remain because I think there will be activities towards the first quarter this year. Next year, I think we also need to strategize a little bit more on what we're going to take up in the next year. So we haven't finalized a strategy yet. And it's likely if we maintain the same business, CapEx will be decreased. But I think it's subject to the strategic direction in the next couple of months.

Phupha Aekwanakul
Acting Head of Enterprise Business, AIS

For the Oracle Alloy, let me take that question. After launch, we have been working with many enterprise key strategic customers and get very good feedback from the market. Many partners and customers need more detail on that one. So we have a quite solid pipeline to prepare for the launch next year.

Ranjan Sharma
Equity Research Analyst, JP Morgan

Thank you.

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Is that all, Ranjan? Okay, next we can go to Khun Weerapat from CGSI.

Weerapat Viwatthanavanich
First VP, CGSI

Hi, this is Weerapat from CGSI. I have two questions. The third quarter handset sales came in quite strong with high gross margin. What could be the baseline for handset gross margin going forward? And my second question is that, how do you see handset sales trend in the fourth quarter?

Somchai Lertsutiwong
CEO, AIS

I will answer on the gross margin, and maybe Khun Pratthana will add on in terms of the momentum on the handset sales in the fourth quarter. I think since the beginning of the year, we focused heavily on improved gross margin on the handset sales, and we start seeing the result since Q2 this year, and it's continued to grow in terms of the percentage of gross margin in Q3, and I think in Q4, I think we still believe that you can do more, especially in the high season, and also, plus if there's some government stimulus package, I think we will keen to take on that to improve the margin.

Pratthana Leelapanang
Chief Consumer Business Officer, AIS

In terms of sales in Q4, typically it's a high season of device sales in Q4, inclusive of, in particular, iPhone, whereby the inventory come in in the late September to October and November. We do expect that the typical take-up in Q4 will happen this year as well.

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Next, we can go to Khun Pisut from Kasikorn.

Pisut Ngamvijitvong
Senior Analyst, Kasikorn

Yes, can you hear me?

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Can you speak louder, please?

Pisut Ngamvijitvong
Senior Analyst, Kasikorn

Hello, is this better?

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Yes.

Pisut Ngamvijitvong
Senior Analyst, Kasikorn

Okay. Thank you for the call. This is Pisut from Kasikorn Securities, and I may have three questions. My first question is about your net subscriber additions for both mobile and broadband services in this quarter, which were quite robust compared with your competitors. My question is, such a good number, have it come from the higher gross addition or lower churn for both mobile and broadband businesses? Which one is having the bigger effect? And for the gross additions of the broadband, did you get them from the household that never had a broadband before, or from your broadband competitor in the market? Again, which one was bigger effect? And do you think this favorable situation could be sustained, or could it be slowed down in the next few quarters? My second question is regarding the 3BB.

Before being acquired by AIS, 3BB made a net loss of about $2 billion plus minus per year. After you acquire it, you say it may take one to two years to digest and turn around, which does make sense for me. So if everything goes as planned, 3BB should still be loss-making, more or less. If subtracting 3BB out from AIS reported net profit, your net profit should actually grow 3%-5% higher than the reported one. Am I correct on that? And a related question to the 3BB is that about the debt financing that you have the short term. You mentioned earlier that you're going to convert it into the long term, including putting it into the package with the 3BB infrastructure fund as well. Please update us on this progress. And another thing about the effective tax rate, which was 17.5% in this quarter.

Was it from the tax loss carryforward of the 3BB? What would be the trend going forward? And my last question is about the spectrum auction. What would be the economic pros and cons if AIS happened to acquire a block of 30 MHz bandwidth of 2,300 MHz spectrum? After this, and also after this auction, I mean, in 2025, in what year that the NBTC would hold another round of the auction for the different set of the spectrum, of course, for example, 3,500 MHz and also the spectrum from the expiring licenses, and also the 6G spectrum? Thank you very much, Khun.

Pratthana Leelapanang
Chief Consumer Business Officer, AIS

Allow me to answer the first one regarding net adds on mobile. The gross add on mobile in past quarter is not much higher. In fact, it's the same level, whereby the churn has been continuing to improve. Again, we have been focused on quality, so it's a big improvement on churn. Would this trend continue? In Q4, we do expect some of the change in numbers. There are measures that we put in on many sign-up executions of customer identity. So we do expect in November and December, there are expired SIM, whereby they are not coming with ID. They may go to churn number a bit more in Q4. But typically, general environment is the gross add is not higher. In fact, it's slightly lower, whereby the churn improvement is continuing to benefit us.

Tee Aswapongpun
CEO of Broadband, AIS

Actually, your three questions actually about 10. Pisut, on broadband, I think gross add, depending on the period you compare it to, I think compared to early this year, then slightly improved. Compared to last year, then it's. I can't recall what the number last year was, but I think the total, if you look at subscriber revenue, then it's a little bit confusing. Last year versus this year. But gross add improved a little bit from early this year. Churn, I think more or less it's stabilized. I think around the number that you saw, sometimes some months up, some months down, but overall, I think it's stabilized around this level. In terms of question, whether we get from new, new or competitor, it's both actually. But I don't think we have the exact number on proportion.

Montri Khongkruephan
CFO, AIS

Let me maybe continue to answer Khun Pisut's question. On the proportion on your loss that 3BB made in the past, as I mentioned earlier, last time, when we look at 3BB, we're not looking at organic in terms of the P&L because there's a lot of synergy value we've been capitalized on that. So we're not reported loss or profit on 3BB. But I think on the other side on the tax loss and also the effective tax rate, I think we're still not having benefit on utilizing tax loss carry forward from 3BB yet. The improving in terms of the effective tax rate is basically based on the actual half-year tax submissions, and that's reflect to the actual effective tax rate that we apply from Q3 and going forward.

Pratthana Leelapanang
Chief Consumer Business Officer, AIS

On the spectrum auction, I always reply like this. Every spectrum auction happens, AIS will consider on every frequency that they announce in the market. Even early next year, they may come up with 850, 900 and 2.3, which 2.3, we don't have any network like our competitor, but at that time, we still consider on that frequency. However, when we will go to reality to take it or not, it still depends on the condition and the time frame and the pricing at the time also that we always have the consultant to evaluate our technical and investment and also the kind of the spectrum. We will conclude in the reality when we know the condition. The same as the 3.5. I think 3.5 may be the next slot, not early next year because they have some obligation among the broadcast industry.

So I think the same, if they have the chance to do the auction on 3.5, we also will consider every frequency.

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Okay, we would like to go to Khun Pisut from Kasikorn.

Hi, can you hear me?

Yes, Kahw.

Oh, okay. Now I can. I have two questions. The first one, usually in the past, you often book the bonus provisioning in the fourth quarter. But then for this year, my understanding is that you already book it in the second and third quarter. So if that is the case, should we expect the admin expense to go up in the fourth quarter, I mean, Q4? Or would it stay the same as the third quarter? Would it go down? Second question is on the DC businesses. We heard a lot of the global DC player entering Thailand, like Equinix or the Hyperscaler. Can you compare your competitive advantage, the Telco DC to the PurePlay, the Equinix, or the Hyperscaler? What is your competitive advantage compared to them?

And then the third question is that you show in your last page that actually the nine-month performance hasn't exceeded your four-year guidance, but you haven't revised the guidance. Is that because you're concerned about the fourth quarter outlook? Just three questions. Thank you.

Somchai Lertsutiwong
CEO, AIS

For number three question, last quarter, we also mentioned about this, especially in this quarter, it's very close to year-end. We should not change any guidance. However, based on your calculation, I think you can add more in some of our guidance, existing guidance. That is our policy.

Tee Aswapongpun
CEO of Broadband, AIS

Maybe Khun Pisut, maybe the performance bonus accrues. So basically, we look at the KPI we achieved. I mean, if you can look at the result that we've been doing, especially the good performance starting Q2 and Q3. So that's why we need to reserve that accordingly. And I think it will be similar in Q4 as well.

Pratthana Leelapanang
Chief Consumer Business Officer, AIS

For cloud and DC business, we acknowledge that the hyperscaler is coming to Thailand. The reasons, our key competitive advantage about the Alloy and the cloud business that we have is that we service in Thai, 100% comply with the Thai laws and government requirements. We also charge in the local Thai baht, and we don't have to worry about, I mean, our customers don't need to worry about the exchange rate in the future. And the last one is we are the network service provider. We are quite sure that the quality of the network service we can provide to our customers. Thank you.

Right. Can I have just a follow-up question on that? So you mean if it's the Hyperscaler or the global firms, they charge customers in U.S. dollar or in other currency?

Somchai Lertsutiwong
CEO, AIS

Normally, I will not quote for the other hyperscaler, but basically, they have the price that, I mean, compare or change based on another currency because they are global.

Oh, I see. Okay. I understand. Thank you very much. That's all the questions I have.

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Thank you. We have Khun Wasu from Maybank.

Wasu Mattanapotchanart
Equity Analyst, Maybank

Good evening, and thank you for the call. So I have three questions and perhaps one bonus question for Khun Somchai. The first one is about the network OpEx. So network OpEx and NT partnership dropped by 10% Q1Q. So what are the reasons behind the big drop? And I noticed that the IC and NT partnership revenue dropped by only 2%. So I think the OpEx drop is a lot larger. So why is that? That's the first question. The second question is about the revenue trend, including both fixed broadband and mobile revenue. So how did AIS outperform True in the second and the third quarter in terms of the Q1Q revenue growth for both mobile and fixed broadband segments? So that's the second question. The third question is about the enterprise revenue. So basically, the enterprise revenue jumped by 11% Q1Q.

So my question is, is this level of revenue based in the second quarter sustainable? I mean, the third quarter, sorry, in the third quarter, is this level of revenue sustainable? And was the revenue jump caused by a big one-time project delivery? And finally, the bonus question is about Khun Somchai's term as a CEO. So a recent article by Bangkok Post mentioned that Khun Somchai's position as a CEO will be extended for another year, next year. Could you please give us some more color on that? Thank you.

Somchai Lertsutiwong
CEO, AIS

Let me answer my question. That's all the news. I still don't get any confirmation from the board because we have very clear succession plan and also go to the NBTC to consider this. By formality, I still don't get any confirmation. Now, today, I still be CEO.

Wasu Mattanapotchanart
Equity Analyst, Maybank

Thank you.

Phupha Aekwanakul
Acting Head of Enterprise Business, AIS

Let me check on the enterprise revenue. In the enterprise revenue, we have the two types of the business, one-time and recurring. So the revenue from the Q3 is a mix of that, and we believe that is sustainable for the next quarter as well.

Montri Khongkruephan
CFO, AIS

Khun Wasu, on the OpEx, I think what we done continue doing is also look at the cost optimization. So I think part of it will be the rental negotiations, and also we also try to save on the energy consumptions using AI to monitor. So I think that's probably overall answer in terms of the cost, how we manage cost, and then get better cost reduction.

Pratthana Leelapanang
Chief Consumer Business Officer, AIS

Regarding the revenue growth in Q3, I would like to answer on mobile sides that I cannot say why we at the end show the higher growth than competitors. But what we would like to say is we are very focused on values. Value in this sense means in terms of value acquisitions as well as monetization of uplift the ARPU with valuable product and services.

As we have been explaining for the last few quarters, we continue on price repair, stop what we cannot be able to provide sustainably, and focus a lot more, and in fact has been continuing to super focus more on the quality of product and services that what we continue on, and we have been receiving a positive response from the market that what we are very grateful about that.

Tee Aswapongpun
CEO of Broadband, AIS

Yeah, I think probably the same kind of action on the broadband side. We also focus on giving consumers what they want, quality of service, new product and services, and also we focus on quality of acquisition plus upsell cross-sell so that I think each customer, if they want to spend extra with us, then we are happy to entertain that.

Wasu Mattanapotchanart
Equity Analyst, Maybank

Thank you. Maybe one follow-up question regarding network OpEx. Since the drop is mainly due to rental negotiation and higher energy efficiency, we can assume that the THB 5.4 billion network OpEx in the third quarter is a new base, right? It's not going to suddenly jump back up to over THB 6 billion per quarter. Am I fair to assume that?

Montri Khongkruephan
CFO, AIS

Can you repeat that again, Khun Wasu?

Wasu Mattanapotchanart
Equity Analyst, Maybank

So in the third quarter, network OPEX and NT partnership expenses. It dropped to THB 5.4 billion. So I'm just wondering whether 5.4 billion is a new base that we can work on. My concern is that maybe is there a chance that it can jump back to 6 billion in the next few quarters or something?

Montri Khongkruephan
CFO, AIS

I think you can use this as the benchmark for the next quarter also and so on as well. What we try to bring down on the network OpEx is in every area, it's not only just the rent and the power consumption, but also the maintenance. That's also a big chunk of it that we can also reduce as well. So I think you can take that as a base. And then going forward, we also need to take a look at that, how we can optimize more.

Wasu Mattanapotchanart
Equity Analyst, Maybank

Thank you.

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Next, we have Arthur from Citi, please.

Arthur Pineda
Head of Pan-Asian Telecom Research, Citi

Hi, thanks. Most of my questions have been asked. Just one question, please. Can you elaborate on your comment on price repair? What have you actually enacted recently, and what have your competitors done, and what do you expect going forward on this side? Thank you.

Pratthana Leelapanang
Chief Consumer Business Officer, AIS

Regarding the price repair, the unlimited low speed had continued to be taken out from the market because it had not been able to kind of sustainably provide it. That continued from new customer to the one who ended the promotion. That's an essential part of it. The second piece is the device subsidies whereby we continue to optimize device subsidy. That also gives us sometimes a bit of negative in output, but overall profits and value remain better than before.

Arthur Pineda
Head of Pan-Asian Telecom Research, Citi

Were there any direct price increases implemented in the market?

Pratthana Leelapanang
Chief Consumer Business Officer, AIS

No, not as we do. We discontinued some of the plans that are not sustainable and plans that we believe are not sustainable as we continue to report to the markets.

Arthur Pineda
Head of Pan-Asian Telecom Research, Citi

Understood. Thank you.

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Next, we can go to Piyush from HSBC.

Piyush Choudhary
Equity Analyst, HSBC

Yeah, hi. Thanks a lot. I have a couple of questions. Firstly, again on the mobile side on the ARPU, there was some kind of blended ARPU decline. Eventually, I know it's seasonally weak, and there was postpaid ARPU decline. But can you kind of share with us how you're thinking of the ARPU for the fourth quarter, but kind of next year on the mobile ARPU side? Secondly, on spectrum auction, can you give any color on how have been the discussions with the regulator, likely pricing, and timeline for the auction next year? Thank you.

Pratthana Leelapanang
Chief Consumer Business Officer, AIS

For the first one regarding output, year-on-year, as Khun Piyush may see, is an improvement year-on-year. Q1Q is seasonality as well as some of the optimization on device subsidy. So we believe that in Q4 and moving forward to next year, we truly believe it's going to continue increase a bit.

Phupha Aekwanakul
Acting Head of Enterprise Business, AIS

On the spectrum auction, because AIS and also DTAC, you see the NT frequency on 2.1 and 2.3, and their frequency will end next year. So we ask the NBTC to go to the auction on that frequency to let us continue using these two frequencies, both AIS and also DTAC and True. However, we also talk to them when you go to the auction, it's not only two frequency that NT will have the resource to auction. Both of us still have a 2.1 in the pipeline.

How NBTC thinks in terms of pre-auction in the same time that will make us can manage more resource allocation something in the future. This thing that we try to talk to NBTC. However, the resolution from their side still not coming up yet. At least I think early next year, they should have the auction on 2.1 and 2.3 from the NT part. Even NT try to ask for them to get the license to them at the stage at the pipeline, but by the law, they cannot do it.

Piyush Choudhary
Equity Analyst, HSBC

Got it. Got it. Thank you. Just a follow-up on the mobile output side. As optimizing device subsidy, there is some kind of pressure on the output. Is it now reflected across the base and we may not see incremental pressure on output from further optimization of device subsidy or that?

Phupha Aekwanakul
Acting Head of Enterprise Business, AIS

Yeah, device subsidies probably be about that. But in terms of prepaid, it will be more room.

Piyush Choudhary
Equity Analyst, HSBC

More room to improve prepaid, you're saying?

Phupha Aekwanakul
Acting Head of Enterprise Business, AIS

Yes.

Piyush Choudhary
Equity Analyst, HSBC

Okay. Thank you.

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

We have Khun Pisut again from Kasikorn, thank you.

Thank you again. Can you hear me?

Yes.

I have two follow-up questions. First is regarding your new investments, for example, the data center and virtual banking business. I understand that your investment would be like a joint venture and how you would recognize the revenue under the share of profit line. It would be great if you could share your plans over the next three to five years, including the megawatt capacity target that you want to have for the data center and your investment budget on this and your internal IRR, and for the near term, how much share of loss that may be incurred in the earlier stage of the investment. This is my first set of questions. My second question back to the auctions.

If the auctions next year are already done, and what do you think, when would be the next period that the NBTC could launch another round of the auction after 2025? Thank you very much.

Phupha Aekwanakul
Acting Head of Enterprise Business, AIS

Like, I update on the auction that we try to talk to them like the pre-auction in the frequency, not only 2.1, 2.3 from NT. We also have one of 2.1 that maybe it short period will end up. We ask for them to first auction in the same time and pay later when that our 2.1 frequency run out of the period. These are all the things. However, I think next year when they auction at least 2.1 and 2.3 from NT, and if they don't allow to pre-auction for the thing that we request, I think maybe another one year, not so far, another one year because 3.5 still have some obligation in the broadcast industry. If they do auction next year, not next year, another one year still have the room and time frame to take that kind of 3.5.

So, next year only one time for my guesstimation. Another forecast about another one year.

Weerapat Viwatthanavanich
First VP, CGSI

For the investments on the new business like virtual bank and data center, I think it's clear that we participate as a joint venture. So you recognize share of profit loss. But on the GSA in particular, I think we have capacity 25.6 meg. And basically, if we can bring in customer full, we will take a lot of profit on that. But I think right now it's still early stage. We haven't finished building it yet. We have customer pipeline that we are contacting, but they also want to see the place. So I think it's too early to tell. And the IRR model, we also assume based on what we discuss internally. But it depends on how we bring in the client on board as soon as possible. On the virtual bank, I think it's a long way to go.

They will be giving us license mid of next year. So right now, it's still in the preparation stage on what we need to do and what we need to prepare once the license comes up. But obviously, when we invest, it depends on the percentage. And the capital initial is only THB 5 billion. So it's nothing for us for next year.

Thank you very much.

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

We have Khun Wasu for the second time from Maybank.

Wasu Mattanapotchanart
Equity Analyst, Maybank

I have one question regarding the spectrum auction. Can NT participate in the auction? And what's your view on the possibility of NT participating? Thank you.

Somchai Lertsutiwong
CEO, AIS

They can. By their live, they can. But I don't think so they have ability to do so because I heard that even Ministry of DES still don't want them to participate based on their last auction that they got [Foreign language] . They also cannot do on their district well. We have to come to help them in term of build up the network and capacity. The performance on their side is still not good. They have the line, but I don't think so they have ability to bid in this period.

Wasu Mattanapotchanart
Equity Analyst, Maybank

Thank you.

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Next, we have Khun Samuel Chen from AllianceBernstein.

Samuel Chen
Director of Research, AllianceBernstein

Hey. Good evening. Can you hear me?

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Yes.

Samuel Chen
Director of Research, AllianceBernstein

Good. Hi. Samuel from AllianceBernstein. Thank you for your time. I have two questions that could be a little more controversial. I want to ask you the first question. I would say that the overall industry competition has been slightly more rational over the past four quarters. I understand there has been a bit of momentum for mobile ARPU repair as well. You guys mentioned already, namely taking out a lot of the more predatory plan that was installed during the previous competitive period. Going forward, I don't know the timing, but I'm just more curious. Is there any plans in the roadmap where you guys might start thinking about raising the prices together with offering more to your customers? I'm just hypothetically speaking, if your entry plan is THB 120, you could potentially bump the customer to THB 135 and offer them a little more.

Is there something like that you guys are thinking in the pipeline?

Pratthana Leelapanang
Chief Consumer Business Officer, AIS

Thank you, Samuel. First of all, very focused on providing customer values. So that's the essential part of AIS to bring in quality product and service for customers. Moving forward, even now, we always have a variety of product packages for customers, inclusive of content offerings, a variety of add-ons, not only on the dimensions of purely bits and bytes and minutes in combined. With the collaboration with partners, we'd be able to bring in a variety of those to customers to answer their needs. There's always room, we believe, to use more. Looking at the whole scenario of having 3G, a bit handsets there, 4G device, 5G device. 5G device penetration right now is roughly about 20+ percent . There's more room to grow. We truly believe when they have better phone, they'll consume more. So I truly believe we can provide product and service that will consume more.

Samuel Chen
Director of Research, AllianceBernstein

Okay. All right. Thank you. I do have another question. I just want to try more straightforward. CapEx, you already guided the thoughts. So we're in 2024, coming to 2025. Hopefully, 6G doesn't come until 2030. So we've got about five years. If I'm looking at THB 25- THB 26 billion previous year, this year, can you kind of guide us more of a slope in the next three, four years? What level of CapEx are you guys thinking sloping towards 2028, 2029? Thank you.

Montri Khongkruephan
CFO, AIS

I think it depends on the level of data consumption going forward. I think what we implemented right now, the coverage is 95% of the country. I think that's good enough. We still look into how we can expand the coverage, especially on the big city like Bangkok for the area that there's a new property coming up, and then suddenly we need to build more coverage. I think that's where we need to continue to invest, and also the capacity. I think we also need to assume how data consumption will go up. I think right now it's about 30 GB per month, and if it continues to grow, we also continue to expand, so based on the assumption we made last year, I think the data consumption will go speed up higher, probably end of 2026 or beginning and also full year 2027.

So maybe that gives you a color on how CapEx needs to invest. We cannot give you right now whether it's going to be lower and higher. But the data consumption will tell.

Samuel Chen
Director of Research, AllianceBernstein

Thank you for your time.

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Yes. So we have a few more minutes. If you have your pressing questions that you would like to ask the management, please feel free to do so. Okay, then this is the end of our. Oh, Khun Pisut for another time.

Pisut Ngamvijitvong
Senior Analyst, Kasikorn

Yeah, thank you again. Just follow-up questions on what Khun Somchai said about 3,300 MHz, that you don't have the network equipment to accommodate that. So, can I assume that the financial possibility for you to acquire the 2,300 MHz will be pretty low because if you acquire the spectrum, you have to invest even further for the network. On the contrary, your competitors seem to have an edge because they currently use the spectrum right now. So they can incur only the marginal investment on this one. Can I assume that? Thank you.

Somchai Lertsutiwong
CEO, AIS

Don't exactly like that. In terms of technical, you said it's light, but in terms of the total picture of our investment, it's a very different way. Because when we have the opportunity to go to the auction, we will see how much 2.1, how much 2.3, how the price on the spectrum, and how the competition in the market compares with the competitor going to auction. That's the two frequencies. We have the consultant to do so. We still interest in 2.3, not ignore, and if we have to get the 2.3, how much the investment in terms of technical, we also have that kind of number. After we calculate and see in the reality, we will decide. We will go how much of the 2.3 frequency that's suitable in terms of our financial model.

Pisut Ngamvijitvong
Senior Analyst, Kasikorn

Yeah. Another question about the 3,500 MHz. You mentioned about the broadcasting, which is digital TV that are using C-band or the Must Carry sort of thing. But from my understanding, the license of the digital TV will expire in 2027, which means that the option for the 3,500 MHz may happen sometime near 2027, which is quite we are on this. And your management mentioned that the data consumption is going to pick up in 2026 or 2027, which is probably coming from the AI in the mainstream. Yeah. So it's about the spectrum portfolio planning that you may need to acquire additional spectrum for the to make sure that your network is ready for accommodating the rising data consumption. Could you please add some color on that?

Somchai Lertsutiwong
CEO, AIS

Yeah, yes. You are right. 3.5 is still not early in next year for sure. Another two years to go to the auction, we still have plenty of time to do so. The spectrum that we need also depends on the application. If at that time we have the AI application, we really need the spectrum to help. I think both of AIS and DTAC also interested to acquire 3.5. If not, if no handy application, I think the next year on the 2.1 and 2.3 of NT and also extension that we try to ask for them all over 2.1. I think this kind of frequency, both of us still can survive. No need to wait for 3.5. However, when 3.5 comes, I think both of us still looking for, even no AI, it still depends on the cost and price at the time also.

Pisut Ngamvijitvong
Senior Analyst, Kasikorn

Thank you very much.

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

To add on, 3,500 MHz will expire in 2029. We have Khun Arthur again from Citi.

Arthur Pineda
Head of Pan-Asian Telecom Research, Citi

Yeah, hi. Sorry, just one follow-up question. Could you please remind me how much was the tax loss carryforward that you have from the 3BB acquisition? And when do you expect to actually start utilizing this? Thank you.

Montri Khongkruephan
CFO, AIS

We have THB 20 billion Tax Loss Carryforward from 3BB. How much we're going to utilize it depends on how much profit we're going to make in the next four-to-five years.

Arthur Pineda
Head of Pan-Asian Telecom Research, Citi

Oh, so it's in over four to five years. Okay. Thank you.

Somruetai Tantakitti
Head of Investor Relations, AIS

Okay. I think we have roughly finished with the Q&A, and thank you very much for you guys to attend in this quarter, so see you again in the final year-end results next quarter.

Somchai Lertsutiwong
CEO, AIS

Thank you. Have a nice weekend.

Pratthana Leelapanang
Chief Consumer Business Officer, AIS

Thank you.

Phupha Aekwanakul
Acting Head of Enterprise Business, AIS

Thank you.

Montri Khongkruephan
CFO, AIS

Thank you.

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