Indorama Ventures PCL (BKK:IVL)
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Apr 29, 2026, 4:39 PM ICT
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CMD 2024
Mar 5, 2024
Good morning. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for Indorama Ventures Capital Markets Day 2024. My name is Vikash Jalan. I'm Vice President, Investor Relations and Planning. It's truly a pleasure to have all of you here, both in person and also those who have joined us online from overseas. A quick disclaimer that this meeting is being recorded, and a replay of this session will be available on our website after the meeting. We have made few assumptions and estimates on future trends for industry and business, which are based on our analysis and available information at this point in time. This session will include opening remarks by our Group CEO, Mr. Aloke Lohia. Strategy and financial outcomes will be by Mr. DK Agarwal, Deputy Group CEO and Group CFO.
Then update on our business segments would be given by Mr. Yash Lohia, Chairman of ESG Council. He'll talk about Combined PET business. Mr. Alastair Port, Executive President for IOD Downstream. He'll talk about Integrated Oxides and Derivatives business. Mr. Diego Boeri, Designate Executive President for the Fibers, and he'll take that segment. After this prepared presentation, we'll open up for the Q&A, and we'll take from the floor as well as online. I now hand over to our Group CEO, Mr. Aloke Lohia, to give the opening remarks. Thank you.
Good morning. Thank you, Vikas. As you can see, we are spending your money very well. You know, food is very important, and we've got a good layout out there. We've also got our shopping for the first time. You can buy some recycled polyester apparels right out there. Coming to the event, our Capital Market Day, our annual event where we share with you our strategy. As Vikas said, thank you for attending in person today's briefing on IVL strategy that is in play since the last six months, after several deep reflections mushrooming from the changes that we are witnessing for our industry. We will share today the several validations as well as actions that have emerged from our reviews, and it gives me great confidence that the underlying thesis and themes that IVL encompasses are intact and our moats create sustainable above-average shareholder value.
Starting with the cyclical aspect, the loss of volume during destocking in last 18 months will be recovered during this business plan of 2024-2026. We are committed to utilizing our assets to their full potential and are prepared to take strategic actions on the high cost and therefore underperforming assets. There are six such assets under review. We will discuss the key structural changes that we have seen in the last two years. The bottom line is that these shifts are linked to peak oil demand, which are impacting on the refinery space, especially in the West. We believe there will be degrowth in refineries in the West and hence high cost for crude oil derivatives. That has hurt our competitiveness, especially in Europe. In contrast, in emerging markets, the peak oil phenomenon is decades away.
Since electrification is dependent on infrastructure availability for charging stations, the electricity networks included, including from the renewable energy, are stretched to serve the growing needs for rapid industrialization as well as to replace carbon-intensive thermal power. We therefore see abundant refinery built in China and India, and therefore relatively cheap raw materials for petchem. An advantage we also need to leverage on at IVL. Fortunately, the Western refinery impact on IVL is limited to Europe, where we do not have the hedge that our U.S. MTBE provides us to our expensive mixed xylene purchases. It is important and reassuring that we are the only shale-to-PET integrated producer in the world. A moat not to be ignored. We are therefore mitigating our mixed xylene exposure in the West by reducing consumption and replacing with bought out competitive PTA.
This action will significantly improve our overall operating rates in the West, resulting in double-digit ROCE for CPET and fibers. The management actions on the high cost sites in the West in CPET and fibers will be without any loss of third-party revenue, as the output will be shifted to other sites so that they can operate at full potential. We believe that our proposed strategic management actions will allow us to take advantage of the super competitive Asian imports, while we will still retain the market advantage to serve our customers in the West with our integrated supply chain efficiency. This action will also release trapped expensive working capital and therefore lower debt and interest costs.
The investment in our ERP platform during the last three years and the outcomes from the digital dashboards is making our talented next level of management enhance the customer service and maintain our leading position in the marketplace without any loss of third-party revenue of our core products. The supply chain advantage we possess in the West is unmatched and is critical, as can be experienced with events such as the present Red Sea crisis. I'm therefore very pleased and confident, and can proudly confirm today that we are now in a position to claim that our CPET and fiber segments have overcome the excess supply challenges that China has inflicted on the polyester industry. Our management actions clearly strengthen our production base and put us in the first quartile cost in the relevant markets.
Not only that, we being the only shale-based polyester player in the world, we command better economics than our Asian peers. What I've described so far could be interpreted by our critics as something that would have been expected from the industry leader. I'm glad that IVL is demonstrating our perseverance, and our fans can rest assured on our ability to remain a leader and further grow our core polyester business together with our leadership in recycling, where we are making significant progress, not only in mechanical but in chemical recycling. Let's move on to the other exciting news. Today you will hear from us on the significant pivot, which is our strategy to shift away from debt-funded acquisitions to funding our growth organically from our free cash flows and restricting our leverage to below three times EBITDA going forward.
The significant mindset shift is driven from our deep assessment of our experienced and talented leaders who we are entrusting as well as empowering to operate their segments, to take ownership and to execute on their plans and deliver on the approved management actions, thereby reducing volatility and improving the quality of earnings with prudent capital employed. Our strategy allows us to strengthen the weakest region that needed the most attention, which is Europe. IVL volume drop in 2023 was primarily in Europe, which dropped by around 20%. I would like to emphasize that we are not abandoning our growth mindset. I've always reiterated that growth is the only constant, and we at IVL are fortunate that our diverse businesses are all growing in demand, and we hold the number 1 or number 2 position, which we will maintain, albeit with strict capital discipline.
An important milestone I have to announce is the cushioning of our carve-out of pure-play IOD Downstream business to be called Indovinya, America's leading surfactant company. The dual value strategy to liberate a high-value U.S.-based, Houston-based business will allow this division to grow at its own pace, fully funded independently, while CPET will extract the full synergy benefits from the shale to PET economics, which I believe is the best on the global cost curve. Integrated MEG will be enhanced with a study underway, which I think has tremendous value as we see from the production and commercial excellence built in the PET business plan, agnostic to trough benchmark margins. Before I pass on to D.K. Agarwal to go to the next section. On a sad note, we have lost our colleague, Mr. Joel Saltzman and my partner. He built our IOD platform.
We did our acquisition of IOD in 2011, and since then, we have expanded that business step by step into a cracker, into downstream, into Spindletop, into Oxiteno, and that journey continues. It is a very sad event, but I must attribute our success as a tribute to him. With that, DK, please let's get the show on the road.
Good morning and thanks for coming. I think what we have achieved in last 3 years is very, very important, shaping the company for future-proofing. Over the last 3 years, we have been focused on a number of strategically important priorities with respect to future-proofing our organization. What exactly we have done? Project Olympus. This initiative was about operational excellence and continuous improvement. This is now substantially completed, and we have delivered run rate efficiency gain of nearly $527 million. You know, everybody talks about artificial intelligence. The digital transformation is the key thing. This initiative was about rolling out our digital tools to improving our visibility across the organization and the environment around us, and so enable us to make the right decision faster.
This is well underway with our new SAP S/4HANA system now fully online, covering nearly 70% of our revenues. Believe me, this was the largest greenfield SAP S/4HANA ever done in the chemical business globally. Actually we have become a benchmark for SAP S/4HANA. You know, started in COVID time and completed in 3 years. It's a great job done. Exactly now we are looking to harness the full benefit of the system over the coming years, and that will come into a lot of value generation. The second is enabling function. In keeping with our one IVL mission, the initiative was about developing 6 new centralized capabilities within the corporate headquarters that would enhance our operational and managerial efficiency. These are centers of excellence and so help us better execute on our strategy.
These new functions are now up and running, and they have made a meaningful positive impact to our business. Another important aspect is leadership development. Everything is people, people, as Aloke Lohia just gave tribute to Joel Saltzman. This initiative is focused on developing the next generation of leadership within IVL. We are very proud of the many steps we have made, and in particular, of the processes we have now fully rolled out, which enabled us to identify the next generation of leader for our top 100 management positions globally as we empower them and go to the next growth journey. While we take great pride in the success, I think you will agree with me, we had executed our priorities, we also acknowledge that our operating environment has changed significantly. Our industry is experiencing a structural shift that puts our business to the test.
We now live in a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by escalating geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures around the world, higher interest rates and sluggish economic growth. You know, we achieved a record EBIT of $2.4 billion in 2022, and this year, last year it was $1.3 billion. You can see the impact of all this and what Mr. Lohia was explaining about destocking. Geopolitical tensions are putting upward pressure on energy, feedstock prices, particularly in the Western market, and rendering global logistics more complex and expensive. This is particularly impacting the European environment, resulting in high costs and weak demand due to inflationary pressure. Europe is the weakest spot today. In China and the U.S., we saw new capacities coming on stream. All the while, Chinese demand failed to recover post-COVID.
Actually, everybody was expecting China to recover. Yesterday, there is a announcement that there will be 5% growth in China. Let's hope that China recovers faster. Our regional businesses in the West faced headwinds from increased imports from Asia, forcing most of our high-cost production sites to run suboptimally. This has led to heightened pressure on both margins and volumes. I think Mr. Lohia talked about the Red Sea crisis. Today, again, the Red Sea crisis has disrupted the supply chain and being the regional player will certainly benefit because of the import parity being expensive. Other important thing is higher interest rates are driving up the capital cost across the industry and testing the viability of many companies' business model.
Benchmark interest rates have gone up by 300 basis points in the past 4 years, which implies actually annual cash flow impact of nearly $200 million at our current debt level. I'm pleased to say, though, that the IVL has been able to mitigate this impact by $65 million using prudent financial policies such as fixed interest rate, borrowing, and mix of currencies. As you know, we were at 58% fixed. In the West, as Mr. Lohia has said, high gasoline demand coupled with refinery shutdowns have resulted in price disparity for aromatics between Asia and Western markets, making our feedstock expensive. This tight refining market in the West is expected to persist due to the ongoing transition from fossil energy to electrification and green energy solution. In addition, the associated long pay period is making unviable to launch new refinery projects.
Nobody wants to build refinery in the Western world today. Most of the new capacity for upstream is being built in the emerging markets of Asia. As you can see, China building up large capacities. We see this as a structural shift in the medium term. As Mr. Lohia has said, this is a change of mindset for IVL, and that's what we're saying, IVL 2.0. In this context, now is the right time to make our strategic changes that will shape the future of our company. Over the past decade, our primary focus had been on reaching critical mass through aggressive scaling of the business. We acquired many businesses around the world. Through our active pursuit of a global footprint and through our desire to maximize operational synergy through vertical integration wherever possible.
We strategically utilized debt financing, coupled with some equity issues, during low interest cost environment to propel our growth through acquisition and organic initiatives, leading to exponential growth in both revenue and capacity. That's how the company of $20 billion is built. Today, we proudly stand as a world-class sustainable chemical company, boosting a diverse and integrated global portfolio. Our robust platform acts as a shield, insulating our business against disruption and external factors. Leveraging our scale and integration, we command an advantageous cost position while capturing more margins along the value chain. That phase of IVL 1.0 marked our journey of growth and our establishment as a resilient industry player. We got the markets, we got the customers, we got the trademarks, we got the patents.
Now as we navigate the complexity of an ever-evolving and volatile business environment, IVL is embarking on its next chapter, IVL 2.0. In this new phase, our priorities will be delivering exceptional value to our shareholders and stakeholders, generating healthy cash flow, and optimizing our financial structure by reducing our leverage meaningfully. To achieve these aims, we'll be focusing on free cash flow-driven organic growth rather than the debt-funded growth that we pursued in the past. Further increasing the already substantial value we provide for customers by doubling down on innovation that will open new opportunities for us to serve them, developing higher specialty and greater value-added products for them, and by offering them solutions to enhance their long-term sustainability. As I always say, sustainability is licensed to operate.
Doubling down on the pursuit of cost and operational efficiency continue into the first quartile with respect to our cost structure. We want to be always in the first quartile cost structure to keep our competitive advantage. Enhancing our operating model to be more effective and better able to respond to market changes. This involve greater users of data. You know, we all talk of AI. We leverage centralized analytic tools, and we'll unify our management system to make it more agile, all the while continuously maximizing the synergies achieved across our group. Leveraging the foundation established over the past three years, including the implementation of the state-of-art SAP S/4HANA, this is the latest system, one of today's most advanced enterprise resource planning system, and the utilization of our digital center of excellence, we are poised for success.
Changing how we deliver shareholder value from focusing on EBITDA growth to focusing on free cash flow generation and EPS while improving our ROCE. This will more directly reward the shareholders for their support as we continue to develop our business. In the future, as Mr. Lohia mentioned, our balance sheet strategy will prioritize maintaining a debt to EBITDA ratio below 3 as we feel that the interest environment still may hold stronger. Even at the trough cycle margins, so I just want to repeat is debt to EBITDA ratio below 3 even at trough cycle margin. This approach underscores our commitment to discipline and sustainable growth. IVL 2.0 represents not just a progression, but a deliberate and forward-thinking evolution to deliver to our Vision 2030 mission in this new environment.
By further fortifying our position as industry leader, fostering our long-term success in a dynamic landscape, and setting us on even stronger footing as we embark on the next phase of journey. As always, they say when it is difficult time, it makes you stronger by the management actions, and that's what you will see in the coming slide. What are we doing? There are four core strategies we are doing. First, a deeper dive. We'll optimize our asset base. You know, we operate in around the world. This has involved through a thorough review of our portfolio to identify capacities and facilities that are underutilized, such that they may be right-sized or mothballed with their volume transferred to. As you know, we operated only at 74%, we did not utilize assets completely.
If you look at Europe, it was sub 55, so that's very poor. Such that they may be right-sized or mothballed with their volume transferred to higher efficiency and lower cost production facilities. We will move them to the lower cost production facility without losing the market share. Through this action itself, we will be able to reduce the fixed cost by $186 million per annum. I want to repeat it, $186 million per annum. As well as improve operating rates from 74% to 89%. This will substantially improve our cost structure. It's a shaving off of a substantial fixed cost. Secondly, we will deliver on Olympus 2.0. Now, this, improving the methods and processes which we do.
Building on the success of Olympus 1.0, through which we improved our efficiency by nearly $500 million over the last three years, we are continuing our drive for operation excellence and continuous improvement by embarking on Olympus 2.0 by leveraging new digital tools S/4HANA and Lean Six Sigma projects. We expect to deliver. This cuts across all the businesses, different function, nearly $450 million, We will talk about the details in the future slides. Third very important step is sum of parts unlocking. Thirdly, we'll unlock value from our portfolio. You know, IVL is a sum of parts.
We have identified opportunities to unlock value from within our portfolio business by IPO-ing certain pure-play business which are not valued correctly, like IOD Downstream and packaging. You will listen from our segments that what is the performance of these businesses and how that unlocking value will happen. These businesses have reached critical size and are now poised to pursue their own growth path. We have also identified some non-core businesses. This can be readily divested at attractive value. We have some non-core assets. We'll create cash out by divesting them. These actions are expected to bring in nearly $1.3 billion of cash proceeds, which will accelerate our deleveraging. I think we talked about a lot of destocking, all the chemical companies in the world. You have seen the results that how much this destocking has happened across all the value chain.
Finally, we will continue to cement our leadership in our core markets, focusing on maintaining number one and number two positions, delivering exceptional services and value to our customers, and doubling down, as I mentioned, on bringing innovative and sustainable solutions. We will regain our volume as we see tailwinds from demand normalizing from the destocking effect which we saw during 2023. We already see signs of this in the first quarter of 2024. In this bucket, we expect to deliver a very, I would say stress scenario because Mr. Lohia and our board asked, let's make a stress scenario, and that's what we are presenting you today. We expect to deliver value uplift of $350 million. What I want to stress here is that this upliftment is without any meaningful improvement in the tough industry spreads we saw in 2023.
In addition to enabling us to better deliver value for all our stakeholders, these all actions will enable us to significantly reduce our leverage position and enhance earning quality by refining cost structure and utilization rates. You're improving your utilization rate to 89%. Our latest transformation plans are expected to bring down net debt over EBITDA below 3 times at trough margins in 3 years and unlock the full value of each business. As you know, when the debt comes down, naturally translates into the market capitalization. Now, let us focus on each one of these actions which we are doing. Can you go to the... You know, this is the footprint that spans the globe, our how many facilities we have.
We have strategically positioned ourselves in critical market as a global business with local production to be preferred supplier for our customers, and we have actually seen this strategy pay off. Being a local supplier always helped. Today as the Red Sea crisis and Panama Canal, I mean, I was told yesterday that Panama Canal, the vessel of 30,000 used to cost $2.5 million is now costing $6.5 million. You have to bid if you want to pass through the Panama Canal, so people are going to south. It's a lot of disruption again happening. We have seen this strategy pay off, especially during the last few years of supply chain disruption, as IVL greatly benefited from our global footprint and local supply.
Our scale has created barrier to entry and cemented our leadership position. Scale has allowed us to invest in innovation and customer satisfaction. By having an integrated and diverse portfolio across geographies, segments, and end markets, we can deliver resilient earning for our shareholders. Our key businesses, as we've always presented you, are interconnected, allowing them to maximize synergy and leverage economy of scale across raw materials, customer network, and research and development initiatives. We are focused on attractive and growing end markets and the leaders across the sector in which we operate. Having said that, the change in our operating environment, particularly due to high-cost feedstock and energy prices and competition from cheap imports from Asia, you know, China is producing and exporting a lot of quantity, although now there is an anti-dumping duty in Europe from China.
This has hit us especially hard in Europe, where you can see the last 3 years average ROCE has been only 3.7%, which is really creating an issue for our results. Given many of these changes to the market are structural, we foresee this continue to affect our business in this region, particularly going forward. Europe is an issue both in fiber and CPET. We don't have any investment of IOD there, and therefore, we need to take actions to address certain high-cost assets, and that's what I talked about to you about the fixed cost reduction. As such, in light of this changing operating environment, we are now in the process of closely further examining our operations, particularly those with a challenging cost structure, to optimize our asset base. Our objective is clear: to achieve first quartile performance in terms of cost efficiency.
In this asset optimization phase, we'll focus on right sizing or mothballing underperforming assets and transferring these volumes without losing the businesses to higher efficiency, lower cost facility. This means going to 89% utilization. A number of these sites' future is driven by make or buy. In some cases, it is not better to buy like PTA. When it is available from China at very cheap prices, you rather than buy it than make it. This review is currently evaluating 7 sites accounting for 10% of our global production capacity and 7% of our gross capital employed. That is a review which we are doing. These sites are predominantly in the Western Hemisphere and part of our CPET and fiber segment.
Together, while these would reduce our production capacity, their rationalization would meaningfully increase our segment operating rates, EBITDA per ton, and our ROCE. As you can see that, if you just take the fixed cost reduction from $2.4 billion to $2.2 billion, the EBITDA goes from $1.3 billion to $1.6 billion after adjusting the hedge loss of $100 million, as we had $103 million hedge loss. This is like if these steps would have happened in 2023 without hedge loss, the pro forma EBITDA would have been $1.6 billion. Ultimately, taking action on this front will further our strategic objectives, improve capital employed, and enhance the quality of funding, as the loan will result on an adjusted 23 basis.
If these assets, then the operating rate would have gone up from 74% to 83%. No negative impact on revenue, as we'll continue to serve our customers from our other assets like Turkey, Egypt. You know, these are very. The currency has devalued, the cost has come down very low. This will translate into reduction in fixed costs by $186 million per annum. As I mentioned, we had $103 million hedging loss in 2023, which is expect to reverse by 2026. Actually, in 2024, the energy prices have further come down, and the benefit will be about $150 million versus 2023. That's another because U.S., the energy prices have come down. Europe also, energy prices have come down.
Even with these two adjustments, our adjusted EBITDA, if you look at in 2023, would have been $1.6 billion if these assets would have been rationalized earlier. This gives you a positive impact on ROCE by nearly 3% with a reduction in the capital employed and improvement on the earning. This is the first step on optimization of assets. Let us talk about Olympus 2.0. Can you go next slide? Following the success of Olympus 1.0, which through focus on operation excellence, procurement and supply chain, sales excellence, and organizational efficiency, we were able to deliver $527 million of cost saving. We are embarking on a new initiative, Olympus 2.0, and you saw the outer slide about the transformation.
Having ingrained into our operating model practices and efficiency that yield recurring hard operational cost saving through Olympus 1.0. What is this Olympus 2.0? We'll build on this by seeking to transform the way we manage our business. This means, as Aloke Lohia said, empowering the segment management to own their strategic decision and execute on them, all the while fitting within the unified vision and direction of the group. Creating a data-driven and dynamic single source of truth system to better inform all managers throughout the group of internal and external information critical to their operation, thus leveraging on this SAP S/4HANA data. Leveraging the significant investment in cross-segment digital systems and enabling functions to support the culture of continuous improvement we have at the core of our operating model.
Concurrent with these operating models, improving steps, we are rigorously reducing further our growth and maintenance CapEx. As you know, the cash flow is very important. We did reduce our CapEx in last year, and we continue to focus on this. That will help to maximize cash conversion and optimize working capital by using integrated business planning model. Overall, we firmly believe that these best practices will deliver improved business visibility and enhance a more agile decision-making for IVL. Overall, we expect nearly $450 annual rate of efficiency gain by 2026, and we'll discuss this in the next slide. Let me talk to you what it is coming out. Next slide, please. You can see here four buckets, volume, spreads, variable cost and fixed cost. This is by improving the efficiencies.
Utilizing digital tool as such a centralized customer relationship management system to achieve a comprehensive customer view, enhancing insight and value delivery, improving operating rate by transitioning to preventive maintenance and centralized monitoring to improve reliability, reduce downtime, and hence increase throughput. Basically, some customers, if you have a data analytics and you're not having certain customers, basically you approve those customers. You have your reliability with the predictive maintenance, improving the reliability. That's what the volume we are talking about. These are deep-rooted actions which we have done. The spreads leverage digital infrastructure and group coordination, improving industry insights, direct procurement, and supply chain cost efficiency. To optimize sales and improve spreads, we are focusing on cutting the tail end.
This data analytics helps us that less contribution margin businesses, we get rid of it and improve the sales mix by improving the profitability of the remaining business, and also value pricing. Sometimes, you know, you can do a better value pricing to a customer with this data analytics. These tools will be used. Variable cost, enhancing conversion cost efficiency from higher operating rate. As you saw that we'll be operating the assets at high operating rate. That will enhance the variable conversion cost. Fixed cost, improving maintenance execution by deploying global best practices for maintenance and turnaround management. Turnaround management done more efficiently. This means less TAR expenses and more cash flow. We have empowered experienced executives to lead these initiatives as business transformation officers along with the work stream captains to ensure ownership and accountability.
We have made dedicated captains to drive this change and get the value. You will see in the EBITDA bridge, this doesn't appear anywhere. It appears in the respective those spreads and variable cost. Now, the third important is unlocking the value. This is sum of parts. What are we doing here? Let's go to the next. As I said, IOD Downstream. What is IOD Downstream? We are the largest surfactant producers in America with acquisition of Huntsman and Oxiteno. A pure-play business in their respective sectors have both reached critical mass, and they are now in a phase of their development where they are ready for public listing as soon as market conditions allow. This Alastair will cover, as you saw the Indovinya.
The listing of this business will enable their leadership to fully assume ownership and steer their strategic direction while also providing a platform for capital raising to support their growth initiative. As you heard, we are renaming IOD Downstream to Indovinya to signify the restructuring of the IOD segment, forming a pure-play surfactant business. In addition to being beneficial to the businesses themselves, we believe listing IOD Downstream and packaging. Another important is packaging business. A consistent 21% margin, and you know the value of this business is much more bigger, and I think Yash Lohia will cover. Will also benefit IVL Group by unlocking the intrinsic value of these downstream and more specialty businesses based on their peer group valuation. These two strategic listings will provide the group with cash proceeds of approximately $1 billion to be used for debt paydown.
That is the unlocking value stream, and you will get more details. The third step, which as I said, as part of a deep dive portfolio review, we identify some assets that are non-core to IVL going forward. We believe that they are not a strategic fit. These are profitable operations with existing active interest from buyers. There are a lot of buyers looking at those assets. These operations together account for over $350 million in revenue. We are setting this aside for divestment, aligning with our philosophy of focusing on our core businesses. This strategic initiative is directed towards refining our asset base, channeling our management resource towards asset that provide strategic value, and recycling capital to reinforce our core operation. This is basically divestment of non-core assets.
We anticipate such divestment to raise nearly $300 million of cash proceeds, which will also deleverage the company. One is unlocking the value, second is divestment of non-core assets. Now, it is important to, you know, the company is a leading largest player in PET. We have 17% market share. We are the largest airbag yarn producer in Europe. A lot of leadership position we have, largest surfactant producer. IVL is a company characterized by the growth. We have achieved significant expansion in a relatively brief period through strategic acquisition and greenfield expansion, securing undisputed leadership position across numerous end markets. As you know, we have repeatedly told you, more than 70% of our portfolio caters to a daily consumer necessities, which are growing in multiple of GDP, supported by mega trends of growing population, increasing quality of life, urbanization, and sustainability.
I can tell you a very good example of India, where the growth in PET has been in excess of 18%-20%, and India is on fire, as you know. Geographical reach and in the emerging markets, the growth of these businesses are very strong. This translates into market that grow at approximately 4%-5% per annum, which together with global reach and customer intimacy that we have built, gives us unique opportunity to grow our business. All our businesses are sunrise businesses. They are growing because they serve the consumer necessities. We further increase the value. This is on innovation, which is a very, very important, and I think Alastair will also cover, and Diego will also cover.
We further increase the value we provide for customers by increasing our focus on innovation to open new opportunities for us to serve them by developing higher specialty and greater value-added products for them, and by offering them solution to enhance their long-term sustainability. We have been able to bring to the market compelling new products that serve the needs of the sustainability, wellness, and urbanization mega trend, for example. Mr. Lohia talked about China. China supplies virgin PET. We are supplier of SPS, we call it hybrid, giving solutions to the brand owners globally. Today, we are the largest recycler in the world, of PET, and we have ambition to go up to 750 K PN by 2030 to 1.5 million tons. Sustainability, hybrid virgin PET, you basically blend that.
That mix recycled material directly into the pallet so that customer can get the rPET benefits without doing their own blending, thus avoiding contamination. This is a differentiator against China. How do you create a barrier against China? You're creating a barrier by anti-dumping duty. As you know, our sales of only 20% is affected by Chinese margins. Rest we enjoy a margin, as you have seen in the fourth quarter earning presentation, nearly a $190-$200 premium. These are all differentiators against China. Wellness, our benefit hygiene fabric enhances consumer experience by offering superior performance and comfort. It features increased absorption, a smoother feel, and neutral pH. Enhanced with natural additives, it reduces friction and improves skin wellness, minimizes discomfort from moisture exposure and prolonged contact.
Urbanization, biodegradable cleaning solvent that is produced 100% from natural raw material. These are some of the examples. The type of products developed in partnership with customers are not only delivering enhanced circularity, better performance and better value, but also higher margin for us. As you know, with the acquisition of Oxiteno, now we have the access to green ethylene. That makes the difference, and Alastair Port will cover about that in his Indovinya presentation. As I said, sustainability is a license to operate in future. That's where IVL has made a differentiation. We have a commitment to sustainability and have created measurable and ambitious goal to reinforce this. These sustainability goals are in place to ensure value protection and value creation. You protect the value of your existing sales, and you also create the value.
Value protection against potential policy changes, changing sentiments towards sustainability, and a growing environment that accounts for corporate responsibility. Value creation through the new avenues of growth and revenues that will open up through sustainability, for example, through advanced recycling. Through our CPET business, we are in a unique position to play an important role in creating a more sustainable world. Recycling is critical to enhancing our leadership position in CPET. Around half of the world's PET, and this is what differentiates PET from other polymers, is recycled back today in form of either fibers or in bottle to bottle. This percentage will continue to grow as collection improves around the world. In Thailand, we collect 80%. IVL is dedicated to closing the loop by recycling PET and reducing waste.
To that end, we are very proudly, as we declared, that we have already recycled 100 billion bottles, and our target is to go 50 billion bottles per year by 2030. We are well on track to meet our previously stated goal of having 750,000 tons of recycling capacity by 2025. We are partnering with our customers and retailers to meet their sustainability targets and our own by building the infrastructure that we need to have more circular economy. As I mentioned, we have emerged as the largest recycler. IOD Downstream or Indovinya is very focused on sustainability, and this is one of the key drivers of the growth potential we see in the higher specialty products there.
We have already delivered to customers green-based surfactants that utilizes only natural raw materials, bio-based crop solution ingredients, water-based produced coatings, biodegradable biocontrol products. The sustainability is going to make the difference and unlock the value for IVL. In fibers also, our customers who are brand owners have requirement for sustainable products. This is where we partner with our customers to develop offerings that support them in achieving their commitments, and at the same time strengthen our aim of not just be the market leader, but also the leader of the market. Success so far includes flame retardant materials made with recycled PET fiber, tire cords made from recycled PET. That's where, you know, those all the three verticals are catering to the sustainability. We have also made a company called IVIH, which ventures investment fund.
It's sort of a venture investment fund which keeps looking at different new technologies. We have already identified 30 projects with the potential to deliver new technologies in innovation to help us reimagine chemistry to create a better world. Sustainability is very, very importantly in our IVL journey, and that's going to unlock a lot of value. As we embark on the IVL 2.0 journey, our focus on developing the next generation of leadership is now of paramount importance. This is very critical. We've already taken, as I mentioned, several steps to ensure a smooth and effective succession plan throughout the organization, and I'm very proud in particular of the processes we're now fully rolled up, which enables to identify next generation leaders of more than 100 key management positions.
Concurrently, we have been working on empowering segment-level management, emphasizing the importance of enabling segment leadership to take ownership, be agile, and apply innovative thinking and use the data analytics. This has required adding some selected individuals to bolster our already deep bench of talented executives. In CPET, as Mr. Lohia said, we are carving out from IOD intermediate chemicals from IOD, which is a straight fit for our CPET business, given the integration into the raw materials, you know, that makes MTBE and MEG. MEG goes as a feedstock for CPET, and MTBE has a coefficient of correlation because of 90% access, because of octane, both being octane. By bringing intermediate chemicals into CPET, we capitalize on the expertise of our executives who possess significant experience managing a commodity business.
You need different trades in the commodity, then the IOD Downstream can focus on specialty. Within the IOD segment, we are letting the management focus on the specialty downstream business in Indovinya. We renamed the business and empowering them to oversee it as an independent entity. For the fiber segment, you will soon be seeing presentation from Diego. We are pleased to announce Diego brings a wealth of industry experience to guide the division's transition from a vertical led. This fiber was vertical led. Now we have done a centralized segment led structure. That completes my first part. I'll come back with my financial results. Welcome, Yash. Please come over. Thank you.
Thank you, Mr. Agarwal. Great presentation. Good morning. My name is Yash, and I'll be taking you through the CPET segment. Next slide. As you all are aware, we are the undisputed global leader in PET. We have approximately $10 billion in revenue, more than 9,000 dedicated workforce with presence in more than 24 countries. We're the world's number one producer of PET, one of the lowest cost producers globally, and the largest recycler of PET as well. We are the only shale-integrated player in the West, and through our packaging business, we're also a leading PET converter in the emerging markets. These both give us full visibility and deep knowledge throughout the value chain. We continue to see tremendous opportunities for us in CPET.
We expect more than 5 million tons increase in demand for PET in emerging markets driven by urbanization and the rising middle class. Our customers have a growing need for sustainable packaging solutions, and we expect demand for rPET to increase by 10% CAGR. Customers are aggressively demanding new and innovative solutions. We expect demand for PET product for specialty applications to increase at 6%-10% CAGR over the next few years. Let us discuss the 2023 performance briefly. One of the key challenges for the business last year was overcapacity build-up in China, coupled with weak domestic demand, leading to compressed industry margins. Our European business faced pressures from low-cost imports, primarily from China. While we have not factored in any significant improvement in spreads, we believe that China's access to Western markets will be more limited due to introductions of anti-dumping duties.
IVL's Western market presence, strength in innovation, and recycling allows us to create returns even in tight spreads. Our international relationships with them allow for collaboration at many levels, giving us an edge over the pure commodity mindset. Our well-diversified global PET portfolio makes our business model very resilient. With the operational changes we're executing as part of IVL 2.0, we expect increase in returns across our portfolio. As you look at our performance, you will see that the average 2021-2023 ROCE for CPET was 17%, which included destocking effect in 2023. Looking ahead to 2026, our anticipated improvement in ROCE is expected to be derived from volume increases, enhancements from Project Olympus 2.0, reduced capital employed, and increased operating rates through rationalization efforts.
It is important to note that these projections are based on a stress scenario, which assumes that margins remain at trough levels. We expect intermediates chemicals performance to improve in the coming years, given that the current level of MEG margins in Asia is not sustainable, resulting in a number of capacity rationalizations. This, combined with higher operating rates, will result in improved returns. CPET, combined with intermediate chemicals, will deliver a blended ROCE in 2026 of 16%. Thanks. We remain especially bullish on the outlook for PET demand, given that it's without the doubt most sustainable of all the major packaging materials for FMCG applications.
As a reminder, PET is the lowest cost material to produce, emits the least amount of GHG emissions versus comparable packaging media, significantly more versatile material as compared to carton, aluminum cans or glass bottles, and has the fastest growth outlook of its materials peer set with a demand CAGR of 4%. In the alcoholic beverage segment, PET has a low market share as compared to glass and aluminum. We are taking some steps to have a greater presence in this segment by leveraging our innovation capability. For example, we recently introduced our sparkling wine bottle, which is lighter and more sustainable. We will keep working on new products through our innovation. In the carbonated soft drinks category, although PET has a higher market, there is ongoing pressure from aluminum producers in North America and Europe due to plastics' reputation and single-serve growth dynamic.
After a recent deep dive, we find the threat of other packaging materials very limited. We are working on strong advocacy and educating consumers to lightweight on PET's superior circularity. We're also working on innovation, for example, with PepsiCo, to lightweight bottles and improve shelf life. We're also working on barriers and developing a PET cap to improve overall bottle recyclability. We will keep leveraging on PET's higher circularity by offering more recycled PET and hybrid solution in the market, and also by reducing our carbon footprint to maintain our sustainability leadership. Moreover, we will continue to strengthen our position in the industry by offering other innovative solutions, such as replacing polypropylene and polystyrene by offering a range of new applications in food, dairy, cosmetics, and more.
Our Vision 2030 remains on track to deliver a portion of our portfolio from bio-based feedstock and enhanced recycling as opposed to fossil-based. Collection rates are set to increase in all regions due to government regulations and customer targets, which will continue to bring back more bottles into the circular economy. Looking at emerging markets, we're seeing that the per capita consumption is still low, and we believe that there is substantial growth potential in these developing markets. It is important to emphasize the role of retail infrastructure expansion on the growth of the beverage market, the transition away from alternative polymers, and the increasing disposable income among middle class demographics. We see good growth in these emerging markets, with around 5 million tons of incremental demand expected to come in the next few years.
This is supported by the strong demand growth for PET in the largest emerging markets globally. In India and Nigeria, there's a 10% CAGR of PET demand growth. Brazil at 4%, Egypt at 7%, Vietnam at 6%. IVL already has an established presence in these markets. We see good potential to grow. Staying with emerging markets, we believe our packaging business, currently a vertical within CPET, is ready to be listed independently on the public markets. The business has demonstrated a strong growth over the years by establishing our footprint in strategic locations. It is already a leading player in key fast-growing geographies and a major supplier to an array of blue-chip customers. The packaging business has attractive margins of 21% on average for 2021-2023, translating into value-accretive returns.
With the opportunity to unlock the fast-growing demand potential in more emerging economies like India and Africa, we believe there's a lot of growth potential in this business. With a consistent strong financial performance demonstrated over the last 10 years, we believe that there can be a good opportunity to list this business at an attractive valuation based on high growth opportunities in emerging markets. As part of our portfolio transformation, IOD segment has been reorganized into a pure-play downstream business, while the intermediates chemical is being transferred to CPET, which includes MTBE and MEG. The integration of intermediates chemicals will enable CPET business to have a unique, fully integrated model from shale gas in the Americas. This portfolio is a complementary fit for CPET. MTBE acts as a hedge for paraxylene with a 90% correlation to mixed xylene, which is the raw material for paraxylene.
This hedges our aromatics feedstock cost, while shale to MEG is our direct olefins feedstock cost. Over the past few years, the East-West octane disparity has put pressure on our CPET business. This disparity has kept U.S. MTBE prices high, enhancing MTBE profitability. Implementing the rearrangement will increase robustness of CPET performance going forward. CPET takes over this business, we expect to realize additional integration synergies in the form of improved operating rates, which will help to improve ROCE. Manufacturing responsibilities will continue with the IOD team so that we don't create any dis-synergies. The global MEG cost curve on the left illustrates that North American and Middle Eastern producers are the most competitive, benefiting from lower ethane feedstock. 45% of global MEG production is naphtha-based, primarily in Asia and Europe.
These producers are the least competitive, and they have been operating at a loss in 2023. We believe that Asia spreads have reached their lowest point. Announcements from companies for disposals and rationalizations serve as evidence of the current challenging state of the Asian petrochemical industry. Looking ahead, we expect sequential improvement in the Asia margin from the current unsustainable levels as more Asian producers rationalize their capacity. U.S. producers are expected to remain competitive and stand to benefit from the uplift in Asian margins. To end my section, the CPET segment stands to benefit and grow from our IVL 2.0 transformation and aggressive drive in innovation and sustainability. Thank you for letting me present CPET. I will now hand over to Alastair.
Thank you, Yash, a great presentation on CPET. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Alastair Port. I'm the Executive President of the newly renamed Indovinya segment. It's my honor to present this rapidly transforming segment and present a very exciting vision of the future. Within the original IOD, we created a very strong integrated platform, serving both important downstream and high volume commoditized markets within a very combined and integrated business model. As Yash mentioned, we've now created a strong strategic rationale to unlock the value by restructuring the IOD portfolio into an intermediates, chemicals, and a downstream vertical. This organizational change is aimed at enhancing management team focus, creating a clear synergies, and this will result in a much more stable and superior earnings for the company. As previously presented, we're now repositioning this intermediate to chemicals business into CPET.
As Yash mentioned, it'll increase the degree of vertical integration with MEG and supply as well the MTBE, which is act as a hedge against the PX as both PX and MTBE are octane enhancers for gasoline. It should be noted and reaffirmed that, as Yash mentioned, whilst the business processes will move to CPET, we'll continue to leverage the deep operational and technical knowledge within IOD to operate these intermediate businesses on behalf of CPET. From this restructuring, a new IOD Downstream will emerge, renamed Indovinya. Give you a little bit of the background. Indovinya is an amalgamation of IOD's legacy and future. The Indo comes from Indorama, where we intend to keep the strong core values and growth mindset of our parent company. Ovinia, which is translated from a Sanskrit word, means innovation.
This truly reflects our ambitious intentions to continue to grow as a unique specialty segment focused on new product development, sustainability, and customer centricity in our very attractive and diverse end markets. This process of reforming the portfolio and rebranding also signals the intention to commence a listing process as an independently managed Indovinya, as mentioned by DK. Let's focus on the new Indovinya. We created a strong integrated platform serving important downstream products and a business model that's very difficult to replicate. We've become the leading EO and surfactant producer in the Americas, with number 1 positions in non-ionic products, number 1 supplier of home care, fabric softening products, and number 2 ethoxylation company globally. This, in tandem with strengthening customer intimacy, has helped us grow locally with key national and multinational customers.
We're projecting 6%-8% growth in Indovinya's key end markets, driven by serving highly attractive customers linked to population growth an increasing need for crop production and yields. Growing urbanization, wealth and hygiene focus among the world's population is also driving our home and personal care and energy needs. The growing environmental consciousness driving demand for naturally derived biodegradable products. Our products are key ingredients in dishwashing liquid, detergents, hand cleaners, floor cleaners, soaps, beauty creams, lotions, bakery products, paints, brake fluids, our PO goes into furnishings and white goods insulation. Very diverse end markets. For example, a bottle of shampoo or body wash contains about 30% of our products. This creates a desired effect of whether you want a lather, a foam, a cleaning, a moisturizer, or a softener. All comes from our technology.
What makes this particularly interesting is the contact services involved. As I previously mentioned, the quality systems involved with the product that ends up on a floor is very different from the product that ends up in our skin or in the toothpaste in our mouth or in our hair. Or even in the car engines or in the brake fluids that go into the cars. The product management, the technology, and the application quality management is of paramount importance. We use this core bench strength of products and technical and application know-how to bring these effects across a broad array of attractive markets and recognize customers seeking a broad array of solutions. We're creating shareholder value in transitioning Indovinya towards a global specialty business.
We see significant demand growth for products offering more specialized effects, as well as for products offering sustainable solutions. This innovation journey needs to be closely bonded to our customers, creating better solutions to help them achieve their sustainability goals. We see potential for significant future value creation from sustainability in the next few years. Bio-based products, as DK mentioned, and free from products are particular interest as we see customers becoming more and more attuned to natural ingredients. Cleaning products need improved efficiency. Coatings are moving more towards water-based, whilst maintaining high protection and durability. Crop solutions need to be more bespoke bio-building blocks for insecticides and herbicides, with improved application control of the active ingredients.
As we apply this wide range of effects, our core science backbone enables further penetration to newer high technology and technical specialty end markets such as food and pharma and personal care. While product technology will be very attractive. Indovinya is now ideally positioned to serve the need due to our demonstrated innovation, R&D capabilities that can bring the customers enhanced performance, sustainability, and an attractive cost structure through our integration. The market has a lot of many smaller players and some very interesting technologies which would complement our portfolio and which we could globalize through both organic and inorganic growth. This will increase our HVA content and further penetrate a fragmented market space.
Through these actions, our transformation process with our very talented management team, I believe over the next few years, Indovinya will be able to match the best-in-class players in this sector in terms of profitability, returns, growth, and degree of specialty, and hence a true value as a new investment. I'll pass you over to Diego for his first presentation. Thank you.
Good morning. My name is Diego Boeri, and in few weeks, I will have the honor, the pleasure to lead the Fiber business in Indorama Ventures. The Fiber segments operates in three large market segments, which all have good growth fundamentals, supported by long-term societal mega trends. Our largest participation, approximately 40% of what we do, is in lifestyle, which includes apparel, sporting goods, household goods like fabrics for furniture and curtains. This business is centered in Asia and is largely a polyester business, growing at 4% per year, driven by population growth and urbanization trend. The hygiene business is a quarter of what we do. We participate in this market both with nonwoven fibers and nonwoven fabrics. It's a truly global business, growing at 4% or 5%, depending on the application, supported by increased standards of hygiene, wellness in aging population.
Mobility includes our business in tire, airbags and other specialties and represents around 24% of the Fiber segment. Growth is supported by trends in safety and performance like lightweightening of tires. Sustainability, like you heard from Yash, is a common thread across the three markets. We are actively involved in sales and pilot projects related to circular practices using mechanical and chemical recycled solution. I hardly have been in any meetings with customers where sustainability was not at the center of a discussion. This is in the future for Fiber. We really want to own the space because we think we have all the capability to do that and to win there. Our leading market position, global presence, and relevance set us apart from all the other competitors.
However, our performance has fallen short, especially in 2023, which proved to be the most challenging year in the recent history. This was due to a combination of factors, including reduced demand, overcapacity, especially in the lifestyle sector, where Chinese player, particularly the one integrated with favorable cost position, significantly impacted our margin reaching unprecedented low levels. Going forward, Fibers will build on its strengths, our polyester expertise, our leadership across the three markets, as well as our strong customer relationships, making sure we stay competitive and we win in our market of interest.
The management action that we have taken that encompasses a reconfigure manufacturing portfolio and organization blueprint will bring the segment back to respectable double-digit ROCE of 10%-10% plus, set us up for the next cycle of growth, and will only further strengthen the future readiness and relevancy of our exciting and diverse Fiber business. What makes the Fiber management confident we can deliver on our plan? Firstly, as you've already heard from DK, we have shifted from a vertical-led structure and transitioned to a centrally led segment organization. These moves aim at making problems more visible, accelerate the speed at which we make decisions and solve these problems, and standardizing across the various businesses. There's no point in every vertical trying to solve the same problem we can solve it across.
Next, we have formulated a plan to enhance our operating rates, which are critical in our business, improving from 67% today to 88% by 2026, focusing on securing volume while rightsizing our capacity, particularly in the West. We have also outlined a detailed variable cost productivity plan. These plans aims to improve yields and reduce waste. We have developed a detailed fixed cost reduction plan, which is a combination of fixed cost productivity and asset optimization, particularly in Europe and Americas, which will result in an additional reduction of fixed cost. It's important to note from this chart that $82 million fixed cost reduction is net of inflation over 2023 baseline, right? When compared to the 2023.
On the commercial front, we are launching a value capture initiative backed by new analytical tools aimed at driving margin improvement and eliminating unprofitable products. This initiative also includes anticipated margin improvement resulting from procurement initiative, which is a big program that we have launched in Fibers. Lastly, we are introducing new approaches and rule-based system to reduce working capital by 19 days with a relentless focus on inventory management throughout our entire network. The working capital reduction is absolutely critical to self-fund some of the fixed cost reduction program that I just talked about. In addition, footprint optimization and inventory management, we are also looking at divestitures, as you have heard, which will reduce our capital employed down to $2 billion by 2026, also helping to improve our ROCE. In summary, the Fiber business, the theme of the Fiber business is control the controllables.
We want to really focus on execution, earn back the right to growth, which is the vocation of our business. Thanks for your attention.
Thank you, Yash, Alastair, and Diego. What does it translate into the financial? I think the most important thing is. As we described today in our presentation, a number of strategic action to propel our business forward, which will translate into material EBITDA increase, and we are confident that we'll be able to raise our EBITDA to $2.1 billion. Let me explain this graph. In 2023, we had $1.3 billion. We had a hedge loss of $100 million, which will not happen, so normalize it by $100 million. The asset optimization will result into a fixed cost saving of $185 million. If you would have done those assets in 2023, it becomes $1.6 billion. As I said that this was a stress scenario because of what ask our board had.
From $1.6 to $2.1 is basically $500 million increase after achieving $2.4 billion in last 2023. We are targeting this increase of $500 million by 2026. As I mentioned, stress scenario. On the back of the end of the sector's destocking, you know, there is a heavy destocking. If you read every chemical company in the world, they talk of destocking, and this is real destocking. What destocking means when the interest rates were low, everybody was having a high inventory. The entire value chain, the destocking happened from producers, retailer, transit inventory because of the logistic disruption. We expect the de-demand to recover. As a result, we anticipate our volume to increase from 14 million to 15 million.
As you can see, it goes from 14-15, operating rate from 74%-89%. Back to the historical average levels, which we have achieved those numbers. As such, we expect our operating rates to improve to 89% and with, as we talked about transformation, this volume contributes $330 million only in the total volume growth of 1 million tons. Over the next 3 years, we only model out a modest increase in spreads. You can see the second bucket. Means we are assuming that these spreads remain, which should not because they are not sustainable. You heard about MEG, you heard about PET. Chinese are losing heavily on the present integrated PET spreads. We assumed only a $70 million improvement, and we think there should be much more upside on this.
Over the same period, as we continue to push for operational efficiency, we have identified $70 million variable cost reduction, which is primarily because you are operating the assets at higher operating rate and $30 million in fixed cost net of inflation, naturally. Over three years, there will be inflation, this $30 million is net of inflation. Basically, we are moving from $1.6 billion-$2.1 billion. That's a bridge from 2023 to 2026. Pro forma basis it is from $1.6 billion-$2.1 billion, basically. That is the EBITDA bridge. Along with the improvement of our earnings, we are also making a firm commitment to implement rigorous cash management policies across our business.
As you heard from all our presenters, that there is a lot of focus on working capital reduction. As you rationalize some of the sites, you also rationalize the inventories lying there, so that also helps. We identified a number of working capital reduction actions that will allow us to reduce the working capital by 8 days. As you know, our volumes are also increasing during this period. Hence, after taking the working capital outflow with the volumes net of inflow from sites rationalization, we expect a net working capital inflow of $200 million on account of efficiency improvement, as you heard from different businesses.
In keeping with our focus on value-driven growth, we are slowing our expansion CapEx plans, as you can see in right-hand side, with the expectation that this will reach only $570 million by 2026. We are very conservative on our CapEx strategy. The majority of our growth CapEx will be centered around recycling. We talked about sustainability. We are putting four plants in India because as India mandates the requirement of rPET and is a big value unlocker. Over next three years, the majority of our CapEx will actually be maintenance CapEx for our scheduled turnaround. You know, the PO/MTBE, we have a once in five years, which will be in 2025, which nearly costs $100 million. We have been very proactive on refinancing.
As you can see, the repayments have been trimmed down by refinancing. We have committed refinancing of $750 million for 2024 and $400 million for 2025, expected to be completed in first half of 2024. You can see the repayment obligations drops in 2024 and 2025. As we talk, we have also issued Thai Baht debentures which are actually oversubscribed. It should be closed very soon. We have extended the maturities and created ample liquidity in 2024 as well as 2025. Liquidity is on top of the agenda. In addition to this, we have $2.5 billion in the form of cash and cash under management plus unutilized banking lines. Keep your watches fully ready, and that's the financing actions which we have taken.
This is a cumulative cash flow over 3 years. The market opportunity ahead of us, as you heard from all the presenters, required us to be nimble organization with the financial flexibility to pursue them. We'll be materially reduce our leverage, as you can see, it goes down to 4.3, which is 2 times net EBITDA, net over EBITDA by end of 2026. We are expecting total cash inflow of $2.5 billion over the next 3 years from internal cash flow and strategy action, I'll go in detail into this. What is this $2.5 billion coming? $800 million in cash flow from internally, actually that $500 million asset optimization which you are seeing in the strategy action is the fixed cost saving for a year.
Multiply by 3 minus the severance cost. That's the $500. You add back that into our free cash flow from the operations. $1.7 billion, as I mentioned in three buckets, $500 million from asset optimization, $300 million from carve-out, and $1 billion from selective listing will reach nearly $1.8 billion, which spirals down the debt to 4.3. Over the next three years, as I said, on a stress scenario, our sizable core operation, which generated $1.3 billion in 2023 and a pro forma of $1.6 billion, will continue to generate significant cash flow from operation. Over the next three years, as I mentioned, we expect $4.7 billion in the cash flow from operation. How this cash flow is being utilized?
There's a CapEx of $1.9 billion in maintenance and growth CapEx. As I mentioned, we're only doing selective growth CapExes. Interest will be $1.3 billion over next 3 years and $660 million of dividend, assuming we will maintain our dividend policy at least minimum 30%, but actually we have taken 15% of operating cash flow, so this will be of course subject to the approval of the board. If all this cash flow shows that we feel confident at the stress scenario to deleverage by $2.5 billion over the next 3 years, reaching to a net debt to EBITDA of 2 times by the end of 2026. Now, this is below 3. Now you may think that what about the growth?
Actually the balance sheet is ready for future growth when we deleverage. A change from debt to equity to debt to EBITDA. This will certainly create a further headroom for growth as we plan to maintain at least 3 times debt over EBITDA. That's our strategy at the trough of the earnings. This gives you a cumulative cash flow and how the debt looks like in a stress scenario. I think after all this presentation which you heard, IVL achieved $2.4 billion, $1.3 billion last year. A lot of destocking happened. For the last 30 years, the company has navigated through many business cycles and emerged stronger and stronger with agility and consistently delivered on our ambitions. Our new strategy is a significant financial pivot change in thinking.
We aim to be generating over nearly $2 billion of EBITDA by 2026, in excess of $2 billion, by maintaining modest leverage, always less than 3 times debt over EBITDA. We intend to achieve this by rigorously improving our competitiveness, focusing on cash flow, strong capital allocation discipline, and returns. Our growth over next cycle will come from free cash flow driven rather than debt driven. As we aspire for the value creation, we are confident, as you heard from all the businesses, we can achieve an annual ROCE of greater than 12%, which generates a positive EVA more than WACC. We intend to do so while continue to benefit from the strengths that have driven our success over the last decade. Today, IVL has a leading position in different businesses. As you heard in all businesses.
Commitment to industry leadership while leveraging our sustainability advantage. I think this will be a big value unlocker. Providing customers with products, innovation, and service to enable their pursuit of excellence. World-class operators seeking efficiency wherever possible. To that end, we have thoroughly reviewed our businesses and several management actions have been identified to enable us with a nimble platform, better able to continue delivering best-in-class shareholder value. Actually IVL embarking on our next new chapter. Our priority will be still delivering exceptional value to our stakeholders, but with added focus on free cash flow generating along with the growth. We are optimizing our financial structure by reducing our leverage meaningfully, as you can see 2x net over EBITDA by end of 2026, to actually prepare the company for further growth on long-term sustainable growth. Thank you very much.
I thank, Thanks for your patience. Now we can take your questions. Thank you. Thank you.
Very good.
Okay.
Audience on the floor, if you have any questions, so we have the people and they have the mics. You can raise your hand and you can ask your questions. Okay. We have a question from Saji.
Hi. I have a couple of questions, if I may. First of all, your adjustments. Okay. Is that better? Your adjustments that you're planning to do over the next years, to save costs, why has that not been done earlier? I thought you are always striving for efficiency, excellence, and profitability. You know, why coming up with all these excellent ideas now? That would be the first question, maybe.
Yeah. No, that's a good question. 2021, 2022, as you saw, we had record earnings, a lot of supply chain disruption. I think the post geopolitical tension, Europe has become a big issue right now. The demand, the energy cost went up very high post this Russia-Ukraine war. Actually, we had a significant increase. That's why our utilization rate dropped. There was competition from products coming from Asia because the freight rates went down. 2021, 2022, we still benefited from that, right? Good price. All this translated into very low operating rate in Europe. Now, today, as Red Sea crisis has a little bit changed the scenario, but we looked at our asset portfolio that since we are at a 74% operating rate, it doesn't make sense to incur fixed cost in so many places.
The entire fixed cost saving which we are talking is about rationalizing high-cost fixed assets so that we can increase the operating rate of the remaining assets, which are much more cost competitive. That is the change in the circumstances because of, you can say, geopolitical tension, the European situation at present, what is happening in Europe is driving these decisions rather than being, you know. It was not the old case, you know. Second thing, refineries. As Aloke Lohia mentioned, the refinery in the West made a lot of margins in gasoline. You have heard about it, how the refineries are performing. This disconnected the feedstock prices in Western world to Asia. The U.S. and Europe both have become more expensive than Asia. This disparity went up to $250.
Basically because and paraxylene has a gasoline blend value. Rather than making paraxylene, they blend in gasoline. That hurt also and high fixed cost. We think this is a structural issue because people are not going to invest in refinery in Western world today. This disconnection is hurting our costs significantly in Western world, particularly in Europe. That is the reason of this deep dive into the business, analyzing and taking very proactive steps, because these are new things what has happened. Energy cost, feedstock disconnection, and the demand issues in the, particularly in the European market, and cheap imports. Hopefully, that answers.
I will add, Vikash, if you can put that last slide, the second last slide where we had the cash flow or is it the EBITDA? Yeah, the EBITDA slide. Diego, if you can explain the Diego slide in the EBITDA slide, what are we doing in the fiber segment? Because what DK explained was the structural changes that we are doing, which will improve our fixed cost. But on a continuous improvement basis, what are we doing on that? Since fiber has made some ambitious reduction plans, I would love to hear from Diego, if he can expand on that.
Okay. 2, as I mentioned in my presentation, 2 blocks of work. One, we call it fixed cost productivity, which means you do the same with less cost, right? We are basically taking advantage of integrating certain function, spanning layers, making this, our organization more efficient. On the asset side, we have done a strategic review of all our assets and been looking at the, their cash position over this 3-year horizon and, their ability to deliver, free cash flow. We have run a detailed analysis of all our assets footprint, and we have identified some that don't belong to us in the future because they, in every way, shape, or form, they cannot deliver cash. Therefore, we have identified them, singled out, and we have active plans as we speak.
We just worked this week on this to really either dispose them or shut them down. Two different chapters. One is fixed cost productivity, which we think we have opportunity to do more with less cost. Second, detailed cash analysis of every assets, identifying the one that don't have a future with us, and we will take care of them aggressively with the idea of having a clear plan by 2024, with already some action being executed by then. That's kind of what we're doing in Fibers.
Okay. Thank you very much. I got two more questions, if I may. One simple one, regarding your utilization rate. You mentioned you want to improve it to 89%. From my understanding from earlier comments over the years, you said at your size, and with all your diverse capacity, it's actually not possible to improve it beyond 80% because some of the capacity requires customization and it's basically not possible to increase it beyond 80%. What have I missed? Why is it possible now to increase it to 89%?
Let me take that. No, if we ever said that we can't go over 80, it was miscommunicated. We can go to 100%. We are only getting to 89% in this plan.
Fair enough.
Thank you.
Straightforward answer. Lastly, on the write-offs. You know, having the pain of the cycle, that's obviously one thing. You can't predict that, either. The write-offs came as quite a bit of a surprise that hurt our book value and as a result, the share price. Are there any more potential surprises that could come up next December, further write-offs that we potentially are not aware of? Thank you.
I wouldn't call it a surprise.
As we said, we have looked at our asset footprint. We have mentioned that even in the past. This time we did a very thorough job of looking at each and every important material asset of ours to see which of them was creating a positive NPV. We changed the criteria. In the past, the criteria was, does it make EBITDA? Now, the criteria was, no, does it make ROCE? If it doesn't make ROCE or makes less ROCE. Because keeping those assets alive, we were underutilizing the other assets that can make the same product. Because as you know, in the commodity space, you can make the same PTA, the same PET, the same fiber from the many assets that we have.
In order to improve the utilization rate of the remainder of the assets, that is how we basically looked at what we said, the 10%. We are reducing our capacity by 10%. When you reduce your capacity by 10%, in another way, your 80% becomes 90%, by the way. Are there more surprises on the way? You know, we will always continue to manage for shareholder value. When you have a surprise, what do you mean by the surprise? For me, I'm, I am the largest shareholder of the company. I am fully invested in the company. I am there to create shareholder value, and I see that by keeping unproductive assets alive, I was not. And to DK's point, it wasn't that they were unproductive in 2021, 2022.
It is just that now that we have this viewpoint on the structural changes that are happening in our industry, and we view that, okay, can we buy a chemical cheaper than we can make it? I think that has been the biggest work done in the last six months. The things that we can buy. There is a lot of capacity being built in China, and it continues to get built. There is very low cost chemicals that we can import, and we cannot make it at those prices, especially in Europe. We have made this judgment call that there is probably no need to continue with those raw material manufacturing. We still need integration. We still believe that our customers value our integration, so we need to keep that safety of supply in mind.
We are not getting out of any particular business in totality. We are just rebalancing our portfolio on a make and buy decision. I said in my prepared remarks in the beginning, in the morning, that we have yet not solved the issue in MEG. On the slide on MEG, can we put the slide on MEG? We are still saying in 2026 we'll only get to 5% ROCE, and that is not acceptable. We are going to work on that business as well. The ROCE slide. It's just two slides before this, Vikas. ROCE in the CPET section. CPET is before IOD. As you can see over here, the integrated chemical, this is where you make the MEG and MTBE.
The 5% ROCE or the 3% ROCE in 2023, this is all money made in MTBE and negative money made in MEG. We believe the structure of the cooperation between the CPET and IOD, the focus was not accurate for me. I believe this 5% will also go to double digit, but this is not yet baked into the business plan.
Just to add, I think you have to look at the quality of funding, because if you are re-reducing the fixed cost by $185 million, that is much more optimization of your assets and cost structure improves, you know. That is the way you have to look at the cash generation and the quality of funding, yeah.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you, Suraj Chopra.
Sumit.
Can we, Amonrat from CGS-CIMB on that side. Over there.
Thank you for your presentation. I have just one question on the listing of your new businesses. Could you give us a timeline for the listing? Could it be the end of this year or next year? And also, the allocation of the expected capital, THB 1 billion, how would you expect from the packaging and also the IOD business? Thank you.
Alastair, you want to talk about your listing process?
What we're going through at the moment is a full review of the business being ready for listing. We've done a full audit of where the gaps are. We're going through the process of building up our standalone capabilities and closing those gaps. We think the first window is gonna be in 2025, and it could stretch into 2026, but it's gonna be in that sort of window. We're obviously watching the market as well and trying to time the market at the same time as being ready. I would think from your point of view, think about 2025/2026, and we'll give more details as we get closer to that time.
DK on packaging
Yeah, packaging, we are working already with the consolidation of the financials and everything. We are targeting by 25, this money should be the company should be listed, and we expect to raise about $250 million. That's the breakup of the two. It's a very mature business, packaging. You know, from 1998, we have been operating consistent EBITDA margin of 20%+ with geographical. We see a lot of growth opportunities in India and Africa, so we are working aggressively on this. I think we will have this listed by 25.
Thank you.
Thank you. $750 for IOD and $250 for the packaging, right?
Yeah.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Sunrat, I can see Sumit from J.P. Morgan if you...
Could I start? The first question I like to ask about the strategy that you could implement in response to the geopolitical change because you have a production presence in North America, Europe, and Asia. But it seems that today geopolitical development has been worsening rather than better to you. What strategy that you will implement, say maximize North America, say minimize EU and then probably make more efficient in Asia, just for example. That what I like to know. The second question about what the possibility of the rationalization and impairment for the EU asset in general in all segment that you have in EU.
Because structural change after the Russia-Ukraine war, I think is possible and how it will be fitted in your future that you elaborate in the presentation. The third, I like to know what the risk and reward, say the return of your strategy on the carbon-related product and footprint. You mentioned several times about your recycling and some other thing, and I like to know in terms of the number. Thank you.
Thank you, Sunrat. Yes, you may want to prepare to talk about the risk and reward, the sustainability question, the investments you're making. Let me start with the strategy on the geographies and the geopolitics. Actually, I think we're agnostic of the geopolitics. What we mean by geopolitics as an issue is that, yes, the key geopolitical issue that happened in 2021 and 2022 was basically the Russia-Ukraine war. That actually drove it in a positive way for IVL. The supply chain disruptions, and the same I could say today for the Israel war and the Houthis attack on the Red Sea crisis. Again, being a regional company, when supply chains get impacted, we as a regional company benefit from that.
The difference in the two scenarios is when the Russia-Ukraine war happened, that was a much larger crisis, which also led to the energy crisis and increase the cost for all manufacturing in Europe, especially. For a short time, it increased the energy cost in U.S. as well. The shortage of material at that point was so great that we were able to pass on the entire increased cost plus. That is why in 2022, even with a bad second half, we had a record earnings of $2.3 billion or $2.4 billion EBITDA in 2022, which was with a very poor fourth quarter and a bad second half. If you look at the 18 months from July 2021 to June 2022, that EBITDA would have been something like $2.8 billion.
That was all because of the shortage of product, our ability to serve the market in the regions, and the pricing power we had because of the shortage of products. All that crisis DK mentioned in his prepared presentation that, when interest rates were low and because of the crisis, the supply chain crisis, a lot of inventory got built up in the pipelines and safety stock. Since the interest rates started going up quite dramatically and, starting the second half of 2022 and well into 2023, everybody was tightening their belt with the quantitative tightening happening, a fear of recession. There was a uncertainty in everybody's mind.
Therefore, that tightening of the belt led to a very focused approach by all industries, I would say, by all companies, to look at the capital employed. The same way as we are talking about our capital employed. Everybody has become tidy about it. Again, their people have gone back to just in time. As they've gone back to just in time, now we have the Red Sea crisis, and again, there's a pivot towards safety. To Kansua's point, we are a global company. We're actually becoming an international company. That is what my internal discussion with my management is now. That what is the difference? A global company is a global company, you make an asset in every part of the world. Internationalization is when you start adapting to global standards.
Now with our pivot to net debt EBITDA, for instance, that is a standard. That is a global standard. A tightness, a discipline on capital employed. Having your key managements run your operations, operate your businesses globally. We are now internationalizing our global footprint, and that has a great amount of value. From geopolitics at the moment, I do have a keen eye on India. I think India for the next 10 years is going to continue to grow at a rapid pace. We are under-invested in India. There's an opportunity for us to grow in India. We are under-invested in Africa. There's an opportunity for us to grow in Africa. I think we are rightly invested in Americas. We are over-invested in Europe, and that's where some of the pain is.
It's not only because of the cost of producing in Europe, but it's also because Europe, I don't know what the word for it is. That's a democracy who doesn't like to protect the market for itself. They're quite open to allowing everybody to come and play in their market. With their high cost structure, it doesn't work, especially it doesn't work for commodities. Our specialties business will continue to thrive in Europe, but the commodity business, we have to shape it, and that's what we discussed over here today. That's on the geography. Partly I covered the EU question, Kansua, on that one.
Yeah. I'll cover the sustainability in two parts. One is IVIH, which is our Vision 2030. We've pivoted a little bit to making an asset-light strategy. We have one project, which is Carbios, and that one we're gonna make a final decision by the summer. That is gonna be a first-mover advantage in enzymatic recycling, and the advantage of that is being able to use textile feedstock as an input to recycle. That can be textile to bottle, textile to textile, bottle to bottle. It really creates a good circular economy. On the asset-light strategy, we're working with large companies and startups to create a supply chain on bio feedstock.
Some of this is getting commercialized this year, and we'll see some off-takes of biopropane for downstream IOD products, bio-PX, bio-MEG for Combined PET and fiber products. On recycling, we have a few projects approved already, and that's already within the CapEx projects in India and Africa. The projects in India are JV, so that reduces our CapEx, and it brings us closer to the customer as well. That's about $100 million already put in the CapEx for recycling in India and Africa. With that, we'll get to our target of 75,000 tons by the end of 2025.
Thank you. Alastair, do you want to talk anything about your application under the IRA?
As you know, the U.S. launched a multi-trillion-dollar deal for IRA, Inflation Reduction Act. One of the schemes was to reduce GHG emissions in the U.S. They're incentivizing putting CO2 into the ground, sequestration. They're also incentivizing novel projects that can do end-to-end supply chain decarbonization. We've, as IVL, have submitted a project to the IRA. I think out of something like multi-hundreds of applications, up to 1,000, we're down to 130 applications, and we're one of them, as being recommended to heavily support.
What that would do for us is we would then capture all of our CO2 emissions from one of our largest sites, convert it into an ethanol-type stream, and either sell the ethanol or convert the ethanol into ethylene into EO into MEG or downstream products. You get that full CO2 circularity back into end products, which creates a lot of value. A lot of our customers are very interested in this. We're under audit at the moment from the government IRA, from the Energy of, Department of Energy. We'll see how that goes. If that's successful, then that's a very exciting project to do on behalf of IVL and the future Indovinya.
Kansua, risk and reward. You know, we are not a China. We are not being funded by Sovereign money. We have real capital. We have real cost of capital. We have a real plan to repay our money, repay our loans in time, on time. What are we, how do we differentiate to the Chinese? Our differentiation with Chinese is not because of the quality of the PET we make or the quality of fiber that we make. Our differentiation to the Chinese is we are near to the customer. We are in many parts of the world. We give them timely delivery. We give them reliability of supply. We are contractual. We don't run away when the prices go down or up. We stay with our clients, and we provide them sustainable raw material.
This is the need of the consumer, this is the voice of the consumer, and we appreciate this voice of the consumer, and we agree with the voice of the consumer because it's a multi-generational impact that the consumers are asking us to think about. Our brand owners, the FMCG companies that probably 80% of our goods go to the FMCG companies. They are very keen to work with companies like us, I believe, who are working on this same platform alongside them, aligned to them. That is a reward. The risk is a few hundred billion dollars being invested in supporting those novel technologies, as Alastair calls it. Thank you.
Thank you.
Hi. Thank you. Sumit from J.P. Morgan. I have, I would say two questions or three questions, mainly, focused on the listing of, the two segments that you talked about. Firstly, just want to understand. I mean, I understand it's a preliminary, thought, but have the management given thought to the potential holdco discounts that you may start to see on the parent co? Secondly, my questions is on the cash proceeds. Is this going to be a primary listing or a secondary listing, and how the cash proceeds will be utilized? Third question is, specific to the Indovinya listing. Understand it's a downstream IOD, listing. From that standpoint, it will still break down its integration from the parent's, ethylene and EO, if I'm not wrong.
I just want to understand how that will work and would that open volatility for the downstream listing that will happen. Thank you.
DK will take care of the listing discussion, Sumit. No, the integration is it will still remain because, you know, we have three crackers, so we are splitting the cracker also in this what we call Sunrise. Sunrise is a ListCo, and the RemainCo is the one that's moving to CPET. The Louisiana cracker will come with the RemainCo. The two ethylene crackers in Spindletop, which are integrated to the downstream, will stay with downstream. DK, on the listing.
Yeah. Actually, as you know, the Indorama Ventures is a holding company, holding the different assets. This is a sum of parts valuation. Basically packaging, the peers are listed much higher than this, 10x-12x. Basically an IOD also Downstream are multiple. There are a lot of peers. We can't exactly tell you the board's at which it will be, but we have done a deep dive. The peers are valued much higher. I think it will enhance the value of IVL as a sum of parts rather than having a holding discount. Because IVL is already a holding company. This will be a listing of subsidiaries of any like of IOD Downstream, Indovinya and packaging. Well, we may look at different ways of doing it because we get a growth assets.
Please keep. We are working very hard on it.
Sorry. Basically, you said the use of funds, so it'll be cash.
Got you.
The $1 billion will come cash, it will come to IVL and it will reduce our net debt.
Yeah.
across the holdco.
Just want to understand the current thought process is secondary, not primary listing, in the sense that the money comes to IVL holding.
IVL, yes.
Okay, good to know.
Basically sell off IVL's holding it that way.
Got it. Thanks.
Sorry, I missed that question. Thank you.
No, it's fine.
Okay. I have this Kaushal from Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Hi. This is Kaushal from Macquarie. Thank you for the presentation. I have three questions which are sort of related. If I recall correctly, you had mentioned that you're looking at 6 assets to potentially divest or shut down. If you could give us some color in terms of are these fiber assets, are these PTA assets? What are these assets? Second question is just what is the timeframe for this exercise? And lastly, in terms of in Europe, you know, what are some of the regulatory constraints from shutting off plants, you know, laying off people? You know, are there gonna be any liabilities that'll arise from this sort of exercise?
Yeah. Thank you, Kaushik. Exactly for the same reason that you mentioned, we are not able to discuss with you exactly which assets we are talking about. You can say these assets are all in the West. That means they're all in Europe and in the U.S. They are both in the CPET and in the fiber segments. We are at the moment discussing this with our legal advisors, with our work councils, with reviewing all the contracts that we have on the buy and sell side. This is also sensitive from a customer standpoint. What we can say is we have taken provision in the business plan for the severance payment that we need to make and those liability. When we talk about...
Those adjustments have been taken, so it's not that won't be a surprise. What? Yeah. Anything else you want to add, DK, on that?
I think that severance payments, we have done the study completely, and that has been built into this as a cash in the debt calculation, what you were doing. That's why when I showed you that total impairment less severance cost, and all the closure costs have been considered. Yeah.
I think the key strategy was that we still think that the demand for our core products, that means our end products, is still robust. You know, we follow all our customers' announcements and the FMCG companies. You all can see that they are still growing at 1, 2, or 3, or 4% at the traditional rates. The end market demand for our products have not come down. What has happened was only the destocking impact. That's why we are confident that we'll get the volumes back. We're just taking it gradually. As DK mentioned, we are already seeing that impact in the first quarter, so in the first half as well. The build on the volume is something I'm very confident about.
Like DK said, the board and myself were very clear to the management, "Don't show us rosy numbers. Don't show us numbers on margins, and they'll recover back to the last three-year average or the last five-year average." We have made a pivot to net debt EBITDA, intra earnings. Can we get there? What do we need to do to get there? As you can see, we are not taking much on the margin side over a three-year period of $70 million. Yeah. We've taken it where it's justified. We have taken it in IOD because in IOD we don't have any structural reason. In CPET and in Fibers we have a structural reason that China is adding a lot of capacity. With that extra capacity, we think that the spreads in Asia are going to remain muted. What do we do?
This is the end result of a very practical viewpoint and fairly deliverable by the businesses. The pain is not on our end products. We will retain our market share in the end products. Where we are going to lose volume is in our feedstocks, and those feedstocks can be bought better than can be made. When you buy those feedstocks, you also reduce your working capital, et cetera, et cetera. It's a combination of all those impacts, and all this is controllable. None of this is dependent on markets. Thank you.
Thank you. While we wait for more questions, I have one online. It's from Morgan Stanley, and it's asking what are the structural changes that IVL has identified on the fiber segment which enhances the performance significantly by 2026? That's Morgan Stanley.
Yep.
Here we go.
Yep. This one is not working.
Yeah, it's working.
It's working. This one. As I said in my presentation, I think there is a large fixed cost reduction that we have that is. I already—I think I replied earlier—is based on fixed cost productivity and asset shutdown. I think we have of this asset that we're taking down, 3 are in Fibers, right? This is fully baked in the plan. Both of this number, net of inflation, makes $82 million fixed cost reduction over 2026. That's very, very important. Secondly, we are driving volume growth.
We have secure contracts in for the next year and we're going to continue to do it, and this is going to bring us roughly under a $30 million value and operating rate at 88%. We are also thinking about divestiture, which will reduce the capital employed to $2 billion, and then we will do some commercial value capture projects to drive up the value in the area where we still have some very specific high-value application. We think we are leaving some money on the table right now, and we're going to improve that. More structurally, I think, if you want to get me more into where the fixed costs are going to come from, we are looking at our organizational structure. We're looking at creating synergies across the entities, across function.
We're looking at centralizing more certain function like maintenance, customer service. We're looking at flatter organizations. All of that is what we have baked in the plan and are driving the number that I presented earlier.
Thank you, Diego. Is there any more questions from the floor? You can raise your hand. While we are waiting from the floor, I'll take one online. This is from IFC, and is asking that, can you provide some more details on the timelines of IPO? And also, one more question related to that is there any dilution for IVL shareholders?
First, there's no dilution of IVL because we are not doing any issues for IVL. These are subsidiaries getting listed and
For IVL shareholders.
I mean, the effective valuation is by holding less percentage. If you are holding 30% of basically packaging or Indovinya. From that point of view, it is minority; it will increase, but not raising any issue and then the entire money will come in IVL. The timing, as we mentioned, as Alastair mentioned, our target is by 2025. For packaging, certainly before in 2025 and also for IOD. That's the plan, and work is going on parallelly for both the IPOs.
Thank you, Sanjay Priwal. Is there any question from the floor? You can raise your hand. One more online about the current status of Corpus Christi. What is the operating rate? This is we are getting from the webcast. I think the plant is not running. I mean, it's halted, so there's no operating rate. I think that's clarified. I don't see any more question online. Yeah, Komsun Suksumrun, please go ahead.
Thank you for the thorough presentation. I got a question on the MEG. Is it part of the current asset under review or is it next candidate? Are you happy with the cracker economics? You have any plan to do with the crackers? Thank you.
Yeah, it is not in the plan. I don't think there's going to be any large surprise, as some of you called it. The idea is that we were buying more MEG from the marketplace than we were captively selling to each other. I'm gonna fix that. I have five MEG plants, and I think there's a possibility that we can fix that we don't have to run all the reactors all the time. I would be able to improve on the maintenance cost of those five reactors or the five MEG plants. There's a combination of things that is under study. In my prepared remarks, I said under study, and it is not baked into this business plan.
That 5%, the 5% ROCE coming from integrated chemicals, that obviously is not acceptable. That study will get completed in the second half of this year. If there is any material outcomes from that in terms of impairments, we'll let you know. I don't believe that will be material at this time. All the material impairments we have taken in our business planning. We have to go through that with our board. We have to go through that with our work council, et cetera. At the moment, we do have a view on the assets that need a review. This is a new one.
I have a follow-up question. Post the asset under review, what is your PTA position? Is it short hire, long hire, things like that?
We will not have any merchant sales of PTA anymore. We'll be net short.
If I can expand, basically, it's because of disconnection between paraxylene price in Europe and Asia, and Asia is long in PTA, right? So making PTA is much more cheaper than making in Europe. So that makes more value, because the differential of the feedstock as well as the conversion cost. So these are the optimization make or buy, and Kaushal, that is what we are trying to do, is improve the earning, you know, basically. It's a make or buy decision. On ethylene, I would say that now the crackers built up in United States has totally slowed down. The operating rates is gonna go up. You know, the crack margins are very low. As Yash said that glycol and naphtha base is not making money at all. It's bleeding, you know, all the naphtha-based crackers.
Certainly with our shale gas advantage, we'll continue to optimize the MEG assets. I mean, that's very clear now. The capital cost in U.S. is very high, and ethane remains very cheap as compared to oil-based, you know. That advantage will continue for IVL. Indovinya, the same thing, and there was a question because the cracker is going, and the entire requirement of EU can be produced from that cracker. That vulnerability also does not remain. One cracker is going with Indovinya, which is import matches.
The only structural thing that we see is on the refinery space in the West. That leads to very high cost mixed xylene, unaffordable mixed xylene. We would have to balance our portfolio for that purpose. In the U.S., as I said, it's not an issue for us because we have the MTBE hedge, like-to-like hedge. As you can see, 96% correlation on this slide. In North America, we are protected. In Europe, we are not, and that's why we need to make some adjustments.
Is the U.S. tight saline situation contained only in the U.S., or is it a global thing structurally? Last question. Thank you.
Tight saline.
It's in U.S. and in Europe. When you say tight because there is no new refineries coming up, and the gasoline consumption continues to actually rise. At the present, it is already above pre-COVID levels. As I understand, all the airlines are yet not flying all the planes. I think the driving season, this driving season in 2024 will tell us more about it. As you can see, crude oil is already going up. I think the tightness in the West is a structural issue for which we had to take adjustments. We are happy because it is like we have built our portfolio over the last 15, 20 years.
We took the opportunity of the low interest environment, our ambitions, our youth, our talented management team, the large multinationals getting out of commodity businesses. We use all of those to grow our scale and have what we have, a $20 billion company. Now, apart from the cyclical issues of destocking, which I'm not too concerned about, the only structural issue I could or we could see was the refinery space. On the other hand, it's also an opportunity. There's lots of refineries being built in Asia, in China, in India, which makes a feedstock very cheap in Asia. So that is what I meant by saying that I would like to leverage on that and buy that rather than make it in the West. Thank you. I think.
Thank you.
Vikas.
Yeah, we don't have any more questions online and on the floor. I don't see any more hands raised. Thank you very much for coming, and we'll stay in touch with you if you have any follow-up questions, so we can connect. Thank you.
Thank you very much.