PTT PCL (BKK:PTT)
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Earnings Call: Q4 2022

Feb 22, 2023

Paisit Tanapongphan
VP of Investor Relations, PTT Public Company

Good morning, analysts, fund managers, executives and staff of PTT Group. My name is Paisit from Investor Relations of PTT Group. I would like to welcome you to PTT Analyst Meeting for the fourth quarter of 2022 and year-end 2022. As the pandemic eased, we are meeting face-to-face. For those of you who cannot make it here, we continue to do online broadcast via Facebook Live. Which has both languages, simultaneous interpretation to ensure equality of access for analysts both Thai and foreign, according to good practice. Via Microsoft Teams. In case you have questions, you can raise your hand in person and virtually or type in your questions using the chat box functions at all time. Our team will collect questions for the Q&A segment.

We will start by presentation of Q4 result and year-end 2022, followed by KM session on oil and gas market outlook. We are honored by PTT trading team. I believe that topic is very interesting given the present context and our executives are ready. May I invite CEO, Kun Attaporn Lekwiwatboo, and Khun Pannalin Mahawongthikul, CFO. Khun Wuttikorn, COO, Petroleum and Natural Gas. Khun Noppadon Pinsupa, COO, Downstream Petroleum. Dr. Buranin Ratanasombat, COO, New Business and Infrastructure. They are here to present results of 4Q and 2022. Good morning, analysts, fund managers, colleagues. I'm very pleased to meet again quarterly. This time around, we are still doing hybrid. If you're okay traveling here, be our guests. Otherwise, our virtual meeting facilities are available. May I just start straight away? In terms of key activities, starting with key drivers for our performance.

Crude Dubai price Q4 average at $84 per barrel, which is down from $96. 12% down due to economic recession concerns, whereas supply increased from producers outside OPEC, resulting in price decrease. Year-on-year between 2022 and 2021, Dubai crude increased by 39% from $69 to $96, as we all know, due to Russian-Ukraine war. PTT Pool gas price at $10.7 per million BTU Q-on-Q, down 16%, mainly due to LNG imports that were down both in terms of volume and pricing. Q3, we imported 19 shipments. By Q4, only two shipments. The average is down year-on-year. Sorry, up 64% from all sources across the board on the back of higher energy price trends and LNG import is higher. As we all know, Gulf of Thailand volume was down during transition of concession.

Q-on-Q olefins and aromatics are down between 6%-10%. HDPE down due to sluggish demand and the lockdown in China. PS spread down on the back of less crude and naphtha and dampened demand. For 2022 year-on-year, both improved in the range of 2%-22%. Again, in parallel with increasing crude and naphtha prices. In terms of net income, Q4 2022, THB 17.1 million, more than 100% over Q3 due to FX gains and less stock loss. Segregated roughly, PTT's own gas business up due to S&M and NGV higher profits, as gas prices were down. International trading are down due to unit costs and international crudes. Less volume and in part a recognition of mark-to-market losses of inventory. That's PTT apart.

After netting increase for E&P, down due to higher operating expenses and debts in Montara which have been ruled and compensated, and impairment of Mozambique, and classification of assets for sale in Angola. Average selling prices which is down due mainly to liquid sales. PNR up, mainly FX gains, even though operating profits are down. Petrochem down due to less spreads. Refinery GRM down. Oil business, oil retail profits are down a little bit due to higher cost of diesel imports Q4. We have several refinery shut down and diesels have been imported as contingency for Q4 selling. Maybe timing was not so right. The import came in in tranches in Q4. Prices new business and infrastructure down as pharma business' profits plunge and seasonal decrease of Xayaburi income and SPP and FT not as high as anticipated.

Those are key drivers and performance. Let's take a look at highlights, key activities in 2022, starting with core business and future energy and beyond. We divide into two segments. In November, LNG receiving terminal number two is complete. From phase one, we have 11.5 billion, and that's ramped up to 19 after completion of Nong Fab. PTT Global LNG, we signed a contract to buy LNG with Cheniere Energy, 1 million ton per annum over a period of 20 years starting in 2026. PTTEP and PTT signed an agreement of gas condensate and crude from G1 and G2 projects. We have divested, as you heard from the news, we have completed divestment of coal business selling to Adaro of Indonesia. We just completed the transaction and transfer on February 15th, 2023.

That's done and dusted. Going forward, we shall pursue cleaner energy business according to our policy. Looking at future energy and beyond. Pharmaceutical, Innobic (Asia) and Aztiq bought all stakes in Alvogen, which is the main shareholder of Lotus Pharmaceutical. Some analysts have already visited the factory with Khun Pannalin. This is a Taiwan-based company. This is a THB 475 million venture resulting in Innobic being indirect shareholder of Lotus, 37%. That's majority stakeholder. Our collaboration, R&D collaboration with Chulalongkorn University on Maneedang molecule, it's undergoing trial with monkeys. To date, no bad side effects reported, only encouraging news because old monkeys, like human beings, suffer high blood pressure, but after a while, blood pressure's been abated. We are monitoring. The monkey trial should wrap up in March or April, and then we continue with clinical trial.

Nutrition business, we established Innobic Nutrition in order to focus on various nutrition businesses. We started launching product alongside partners, namely Innobic Pro Beta-Glucan+ and Innobic Probiotic. I think we have some samples outside. The products start coming out and Innobic bought shares of Inter Pharma 20% to foster collaboration, commercialization, marketing. NRPT, which is joint venture between Innobic and NR Instant Produce, 50/50. They opened alt.Eatery in Sukhumvit 51, selling plant-based food. I think they are doing brisk business just in December, we started construction of plant-based food processing factory, a joint venture for the capacity of 3,000 ton per year. Medical device business. We started production of non-woven fabric. This is joint venture between IRPC and Innobic.

They started production capacity 5,600 tons per annum. There is investment in Namwiwat THB 800 million, accounting for 17.65% to strengthen business of medical device production with plan to expand to market outside Thailand. In terms of EV value chain, Horizon Plus starts their construction to manufacture EV at Rojana Industrial Estate. $1 billion investment for the initial capacity of 50,000 units per year. Nuovo Plus establishing JV with NV Gotion to import, assemble, and market battery modules and battery packs for energy storage and for EVs as well. Arun Plus and CATL signed an MOU to conduct feasibility study into cell-to-pack battery for, or to suit different sorts of use, for example, EVs. This is in preparation for these.

Logistics and infrastructure, we established GML, Global Multimodal Logistics for rail, waterborne, and airborne logistics. That's roughly highlights for 2020. Khun Pannalin will present financial performance.

Pannalin Mahawongthikul
CFO, PTT Public Company

We also brought some products so that you can have a look and have a physical touch. We have Pakamara Coffee and also the break is provided for you from alt.Eatery, which is plant-based food. We have the boots coming up to display the probiotics and Beta-Glucan+ available just outside for all of you. Please have a look during the break. Those are the products from the PTT Group with more varieties coming up. Now to the essence of this session. The CEO has just gave us the summary. Now we will get into the details starting from the PTT consolidated performance Q4 compared to Q3. Looking at the net income in Q4, Q-on-Q is down by 10% or about 87.4 billion THB, mainly from trading and petrochemical and refinery.

As you may know well, in Q4, our refinery is under shutdown, so the sales volume internationally and PNR business is down. In Q4, the crude oil price is also dropping down. The global petrochemical products price is also coming down. That's why we have lower revenue in Q4. For the gas business in Q4, S&M, we have lower average selling price. In line with the pool gas and the decreased sales volume. That's because the power plant clients, they just switched to oil instead. Also, in winter, there is a lower and smaller demand than before. EBITDA Q-on-Q is down by 20% or about 18.735 billion THB. That is from almost all of the businesses except gas and PTTEP.

Starting from trading, EBITDA is down because the unit margin of petroleum product and crude price is down in line with the global trend. We recognize loss from mark-to-market of the inventory. NBI also is down because the gross profit of pharmaceutical businesses is down. Gross profit from GPSC is down from the SPP with higher feed gas and coal. PNR also is down because petrochemical products prices is down. Refinery also is down, even though with higher market GRM. That's because of the lower sales volume. In Q4, there's some positive sign in that we have lower stock loss. For the oil business, EBITDA is down, as the CEO has just previously mentioned. For the gas business, we are doing better from SNM and NGV, as the CEO has previously explained.

Net income Q-on-Q increased about THB 9 billion or more than 100% in Q4 because of the higher FX gain. 'Cause in Q3 of 2022, baht weakened by about THB 2.6. In Q4, baht strengthened by THB 3.43. We have higher FX gain by about THB 52.56 billion. Also, we have higher derivative loss, mainly from PTTEP and GC. In Q4, we also recognized one-time non-net tax, non-recurring items, and that's about THB 7.7 billion, mainly from the import impairment of goodwill of Mozambique of PTT, and that's about THB 4.3 billion. Also the expenses to pay the compensation for Indonesia from PTTEP, that's THB 3 billion. Also the support to the Oil Fuel Fund in crisis situation, and that's THB 2 billion.

Also, we have the adjustment of the debt that might arising from Oman Block 61 of PTTEP. That's positive factor, about THB 1.6 billion. Next NI in Q4 increased by more than 100%. When we compare 2022 to 2021, revenue shot up by almost 50% or by THB 1.1 trillion, mainly from the average selling price and the sales volume, which is higher after the pandemic when we compare to 2021. EBITDA increased by THB 63.3 billion or about 15% up, mainly from PTTEP coal business, trading business, and OR business. E&P is up from the higher average selling price and higher sales volume, mainly from G1/61 project, started the operation last April, and also from Oman Block 61 project, which recognized full year revenue.

For the coal business, the average selling price is higher in line with the global price, even though the cost of mining is higher. The proportion of the price rise is higher. Trading EBITDA is also up because of the unit margin is higher, and also with higher sales volume. For oil business, EBITDA is higher because gross profit of non-oil is higher in line with the selling price, sales volume, and also for the revenue from beverage and food. All in all, for the gas, EBITDA is down mainly from SNM and NGV because the feed gas cost is higher in line with the LNG, world LNG price. Our pool gas price is higher by about 64%.

If you look to the gas separation plant, the gross profit is higher because all of the products has higher average selling price in line with the world petrochemical price. Even though the feed gas cost is higher. For P&R businesses, EBITDA is down. We split it into two categories. For petrochemical business, EBITDA is down because the spread of aromatics and olefins is down. If we are talking about refinery business, it's better because of better market GRM, which increased from $2.9 per barrel last in 2021 to $10.7 per barrel in 2022. Also we have higher sales volume. Last year, we also have lower stock gain when compared to 2021. In 2022, NI, the stock gain is down by THB 42 billion.

For the net income, net income decreased by THB 17 billion or about 16% down, mainly from the derivative loss, which increased by about THB 42 billion. For the previous quarters, because of the war with Russia and Ukraine, which is unexpected. The businesses that did the derivative hedging, with the war, the price of the oil is shooting up. That's why we faced with derivative loss. We have the physical gain instead. Like, we buy the insurance premium, it would be offset both physical and the derivative portion. Derivative portion would be done no more than 50%. Still we have to enjoy the price, which is higher from the physical portion. For the income, for the tax expense, it's increased by THB 22 billion, mainly from better performance of PTTEP and Thai Oil.

PTTEP is doing better. We have to pay higher tax. For Thai Oil, they just divested GPSC. They have the gain. They have to pay more tax. For the FX gain, it increased by about THB 12 billion. In 2021, it's a loss of THB 6.4 billion. In 2022, it's a gain of THB 5.5 billion. The difference is about THB 12 billion, which is the positive factor. In 2021, baht weakened by THB 3.38. In 2022, it's weakened by THB 1.14. For one-time non-recurring items, which is the net in PTT portion, we face the loss from non-recurring items, and that's about THB 10 billion. Certainly from the impairment of the assets, both from Mozambique project and the mine project in Madagascar.

Altogether, it's about THB 7 billion. Mainly, it's from Mozambique. For the compensation for the class action of THB 3 billion in Q4. For the whole year, we also inject the money into the Oil Fuel Fund, and that's about THB 3 billion, while the positive factor is from the count, discount of the shortfall. PTT get about THB 3.4 billion, and also for the adjustment of the debt of Oman Block 61 of PTTEP, and that's positive factor of THB 1.6 billion. All in all, the net income decreased by 16%. For the next slide is the waterfall. Q-on-Q first, quarter four compared to quarter three.

We would see that if we break down in items, in Q4 compared to Q3, margin is down by THB 21 billion. That is down from almost all of the businesses, except PTTEP, which has still good margin from the gas business. Stock loss is down by THB 7.5 billion, in line with the crude oil price, which is down, but still better than Q3. OpEx increased by THB 4.7 billion, mainly from the personnel costs, royalty fee, which is increasing in line with higher sales volume, the P&R costs, and also outside personnel costs. Other income is down by THB 1.5 billion, mainly from the compensation paid to the class action in Indonesia. That's THB 4.7 billion. Oil fund injection, that's THB 2 billion.

The adjustment of the debt of Oman project, Block 61 of PTTEP, and also the profit that we buy AVT, AGC Vinythai under GC, which is below the fair value, and also the profit from the investment in Thai Tank Terminal of GC. Interest revenue increased by THB 571 million. Impairment increased by THB 4.8 billion from Mozambique. FX derivative is better by THB 35 billion. That's positive factor because we have the FX gain about THB 52 billion. Derivative loss is higher by THB 17 billion. Net off, it's THB 35 billion. The last column, it's the interest, CIT, and non-controlling interest. That's negative factor of THB 1.4 billion. NCI is increased by THB 1.3 billion because of the better performance.

Tax expense is higher by about THB 1 billion, mainly from the increased performance of PTT and the share of net income from JV and associates is getting better, higher by THB 1.09 billion, while interest expense is higher by about THB 214 million. Starting to coming to the key driver.

Paisit Tanapongphan
VP of Investor Relations, PTT Public Company

We've explained, now to share with you some numbers starting with gas business. The natural gas price, which is a key driver. The gas costs decreased by about 16% Q and Q from 12.7 to $10 MMBTU due to less spot LNG import on the back of less domestic demand. Sales volume Q4 less 5% from 4,105 to 39 due to power plants and industrial uses. The power sector demand less by 7% due to FT's adjustments since September, and it was cooler by year-end, and power plants switched to diesel to replace spot LNG as gas price increased. Industry uses sales volume down 9% due to maintenance shutdown of cogens and refineries. GSP sales volume to GSP increased 5% on the back of increased supply from Gulf of Thailand.

NGV sales volume remain the same. Let's take a look at GSP. Key drivers is, average price Q-on-Q down according to benchmark price feed costs. At the bottom, increase 13% according to the major price adjustment cycle, and GSP sales volume down from 1.7 to 1.6 K ton. Propane volume down due to less demand in petrochem buyers due to less spread, so they decrease capacity. Ethane sales volume up according to demands. In Q3, GC does shutdown maintenance. Comparing year-on-year, starting for year-on-year basis, natural gas. Pool gas price increased as high as 64% from as Myanmar and GOT gases went higher and LNG higher as well, or as a result of Russian-Ukraine war and 2022, we imported spot LNGs, pricey spot LNGs to replace Gulf of Thailand shortfall.

Gas sales volume, top right in 2022 less 6% from 44 to 41. Similarly, due to less demands from power plants and GSP, 6% down on power plant sector, they called more dispatchers from hydro plants and switched to diesel. GSPs sales volume down less by 14%, in line with less production from Gulf of Thailand during transition and more maintenance shutdowns than last year. Industry users sales volume 5% higher, due to more cogens. Glow Energy, 5. Reactivated in March 9th and SPP replacement clients that changed to cogen due to expiry of their PPA. These explained the increase in industry user segment NGV sales volume higher 7% and people switch to NGV as we continue the price cap. GSP, lower part of this slide, average sales price throughout the year increase according to global benchmarks.

Feed costs 6% higher from 293 to $312 per ton. sales volume, bottom right, down by 2% according to plant shutdown maintenance and adjustment of capacity in light of Gulf of Thailand supply. Actually, we have gone through it all just to put numbers together in a context. I just add about the pipeline business which we haven't discussed so far. for pipeline business, both Q-on-Q and year-on-year, EBITDA of gas pipeline business are down because of the new pricing formula. Q4, it was impacted. The impact was felt across Q4 or 5 months of the year, hence less EBITDA. We take a look at trading business. Q-on-Q, EBITDA of trading was down by more than 100% because of margins.

You will see the nosedive of margins from THB 0.13 per liter to THB 0.04 per liter in Q4 because of spread. Less spreads over the back of recession concern and mark-to-market of inventories and condensate discount that is higher as naphtha price decrease and condensate price soften. Sales volume in Q4 down by 44% Q-on-Q. Due to less LNG import in Q4 and less crude imports due to refinery shutdown maintenance, resulting in less EBITDA from THB 4.9 billion to loss of THB 366 million. Throughout the year for trading business, EBITDA improved by 61% due to both increasing sales volume by 61%, bottom right. Also higher LPGs due to higher demands. Out in crude also increased according to refinery's demand because the economy was improving last year.

Profit also improved and therefore EBITDA improved. For financial position, total asset of PTT Group increased by 11% from THB 3 trillion- THB 3.4 trillion. Major items, we see that other recurring assets increased mainly due to inventories and account receivables due to higher price as well as higher volume for non-recurring. Asset increased by about THB 96 billion due to long-term investment money in increasing JVs of GP, GPSC and land, PP&E increased thanks to PTTEP mainly. Assets for G1, G2 and under construction projects of Thai Oil CFP project. On the liability end, we see that other debts increased by THB 40 billion due to higher receivables. Interest-bearing debt increased by about THB 200 billion due to longer term loans and more debentures. Equity also increase due to higher net profit.

THB 91 billion net by dividend payment for the latter half of 2021 and early half 2022. Netting equity increased by THB 16 billion. Financial ratio is higher. Net debt to EBITDA increased from 1.37- 1.71. Net debt to equity from 0.4- 0.55. Because last year we, as I said, across the PTT Group, we borrowed more. Looking at the cash flows 2022. Cash flow of PTT Group for beginning cash, THB 312 billion. Free cash flow positive at THB 5 billion due to cash flow from operation, which is higher by about THB 191 billion. At the same time, cash flow from investment outflow THB 186,690 billion. Investment activities concentrate around PTTEP and Thai Oil. And receiving from loans, bonds THB 50 billion.

From short-term, long-term loans and netting the whole year. Receiving, at end, cash ending, including short-term investments, stand at THB 340 billion. Due to what we just announced, dividend payment for latter half of the year. I just want to summarize that the whole year, earning per share average at THB 3.2 per share, and PTT board approved THB 2 dividend. Payout ratio of 62.5%. This is going to be introduced at AGM, and dividend will be paid on April 18th . Thank you. Let's continue with two more topics. Just because this is beginning of the year, I would like to share with you business directions and strategies. We have three core business units: upstream, downstream, new business and infrastructure.

Each business stream has its own strategies and directions, which I would like to share. For example, upstream, the keywords are sustainable growth through integrated gas value chain. Focusing on sustainable growth, as I said many times before, we always see gas as having long future, and it can still grow. We are determined to grow. Downstream, we encapsulate them in lasting legacies and go beyond downstream business. Old assets, we focus on strengthening them to extend their life cycle three, four decades. As much as possible, we retake productivity, synergy, competitiveness for legacy assets. We will invest in advanced materials and more specializations, specialty materials and new business. The slogan is Move PTT Forward. It is going to be the main engine, the key driver to move PTT forward. To the right, ESG.

Last time, I already shared about our Net Zero goal for PTT 2050 within PTT Group, depending on different business units. All the flagship companies are striving to achieve before 2050. We have three Ps: Pursuit of low emissions, improving productions to emit less or carbon capture storage and utilization, energy efficiency. That's the first P. Second, portfolio transformation, accelerating towards greener business. Increasing the shares of renewables in the portfolio. Third, partnership with nature and society. Basically, that's about growing trees, forestation. The Thai equivalent would be the 3 Poplar, which is the troika of existing leadership, I dare not say. The first P, we reckon it will contribute about 30%. Second, portfolio about 50%, and the third P, 20%. These will contribute to meeting 2050 Net Zero goal.

I just like to dive into each business stream, starting with upstream business growth. There are three main directions they are pursuing. First, strengthening E&P to ensure gas supply continuity and security. We seek to increase, ramp up production in existing assets, Gulf of Thailand, JDA, and accelerate development projects. For example, in Mozambique, Lang Lebah in Malaysia, and increase supply in country and regionally. Negotiation as well. For example, in the overlapping claims area with Cambodia, with Vietnam and neighboring countries. Second, we seek to ensure competitive gas supply security, negotiating supply via pipelines and securing both long-term and spot LNGs, and manage the appropriate supply from various sources. PTT, during the energy crisis, we have demonstrated our potentials for the government to see both in terms of managing pricing and adequacy of supply. In fact, many countries are suffering shortages.

If you don't manage well, there are blackouts, brownouts, price spike. Until now, we manage the whole ports, not just natural gas. We manage other fuel types as well. When diesel was cheaper than LNG, we switch to diesel. LNG was low, spot price plunged, then we adjust the port to generate electricity from LNG more. This has been proven LNG spot. At the start, the government would like to try deregulation. We bid competitively with EGAT. The first round we proposed, and then EGAT retreated because it's not viable for them. We believe that if we supply through spot bidding competition, we are more competitive. We are highly competitive. Thirdly, we try to enhance competitiveness in terms of optimizing infrastructure.

For example, GSP-7 project, we will build to replace GSP-1, which is quite elderly, nearly 40 years old. GSP eight project, ethane separation plant and ethane barge for petrochem clients. GSP logistics management phase 2 to improve facilities to import C3 from MT and extend the pipeline to gas separation plant, which will enable us to be C3 product hub. Infrastructure improvement, building the connecting pipelines between receiving LNG, receiving terminals 1 and 2, or looking at supply portfolio by securing competitively priced LNG and marketing of LNG. In fact, that slowed down when LNG was expensive, but I believe that these commodities are cyclical. Potentials to market LNG remain. Our facilities are ready.

When we have the facilities ready, and we bring in big launch to store, reload, and break bulks into smaller vessels, and we can distribute via iso tanks, then we have the ability to market either directly to industry users or neighboring countries, both.

On sea and on land. The market potentials are there. It's a matter of timing. Price is softer and we have established a marketing team already. The LNG hub strategy is still on the drawing board.

Pannalin Mahawongthikul
CFO, PTT Public Company

The activities can be delayed. That's because of it's not the timing yet, but I think now the timing is coming closer and closer, and that's for the upstream. Coming to the downstream business, we split it into Lasting Legacies and Go Beyond with Downstream. For Lasting Legacies, we stresses on synergy using technologies to increase the synergy throughout the value chain. We are looking not only to the downstream itself, but also from the downstream with upstream as well. For the pillar of Go Beyond with Downstream, we have a major investment like GC in Allnex when correct.

After this, we will try to build synergy and efficiency with the assets which is existing, but we try to expand the markets. Like Allnex, they have the capacity to expand the market in Asia a lot more. If you look into the portfolio of their market, it's in the West. For the East or in Asia, there are still a lot more spaces for them to penetrate into. It's a little bit delayed during the pandemic, but when the cities are opening, we can go full speed right now. For OR, we will focus in mobility and lifestyle, so we are not focusing only on energy. For energy, we do not trade only oil, but we try to draw the most traffic as possible, like EV and charging. Also, we try to connect between online and offline businesses.

OR is quite distinct in that, when people said about platform, they have only the digital platform. What OR will be doing, we would have both the physical platform and digital platform. We would launch in a short time many more application that would integrate all of the businesses of OR under one app. We would have business activities that can connect between the app on mobile phone and the state's physical station nationwide. This is our distinct characteristics from others. 'Cause others, they would have only the digital platform, which is becoming red ocean already. If we can connect the physical and digital platforms together, I think this would be an appropriate platform for us. Soft opening would be in March, and then the real opening is in the middle of the year.

That's the business from OR, which is downstream. We also would focus on specialty chemicals, new material. We would ensure that we would have the focus on the old business and also the new businesses, like the water businesses. We are looking into the feasibility, whether we can commercialize. On this slide, we show that our directions forward. We have done the study and split into different groups. We have 13 business group altogether. If you want more details, Kun Noppadon can give you more details. Mainly we split into 13 chemical segments. We are looking forward into advanced material and specialty chemical to build upon our existing business. Also we have the membrane and filter products, chemical for life, ingredient. These are our 13 chemical segments in our downstream business. Now to future energy and beyond, which is our new businesses.

Renewable energy, I mentioned it several times. We target RE capacity at 12 GW by 2030. GPSC would focus into two main pillars, overseas and in Thailand. We also launched the JV between GPSC and PTT, that is GRP. They would focus in other areas apart from Thailand and India. For example, China, Taiwan, and ASEAN members. For hydrogen business, this is one of the future businesses that we would like to keep an eye on too. We are doing the studies and also looking into the feasibility study to commercialize. For example, we target after the feasibility study to be hydrogen ASEAN hub. We signed the MOU with Saudi Arabian company to do the study on green hydrogen production in Thailand. We piloted to launch the station together with Toyota, BRG, and OR.

We are now studying the application on hydrogen to mix with gas to produce the fuel. Not only the natural gas, but we mix hydrogen. EV value chain, we mentioned it several time, like battery for the cell. To pack, we used technology of 24M in order to upgrade our production. Investment of this technology is in China. In gigafactory, it would be completed before Thailand, so they can become our case study. We also study the cell-to-pack business with CATL. EV infrastructure, the chargers, we produce it ourselves through Arun Plus OR with the target to have the network to cover most area as possible. Mobility services, that's EVme. We have our vehicles, and that's about 500 in the fleet. Our target is 2,000 vehicles. If it's getting better, we can expand our market into ASEAN countries.

We see some interest from some countries already. Swap & Go, that's the motorcycles, electric motorcycles. We have the plan to expand it and started talking to our partners from Taiwan. For lifestyle, pharmaceuticals, we already mentioned that. We would like to expand continuously in all dimensions, like the factories to manufacture medication. We also join hands in Thailand with our Thai partners like the pharmaceutical organization in Thailand. For advanced medicine, we also mentioned that it's Maneedang molecule medication. Medical technology, we would like to focus on consumable to build upon the nonwoven fabric factory. Nutrition, we mentioned that already. The plant-based food factory, it's going to complete soon, the factory. Innobic Nutrition, we have two products launched already. The real concept is that nutrition, we see the products, a lot of products in the market.

For PTT and Innobic, we focus on the scientific results to support our products, all of our products. We would not focus only on the presenter, which is the celebrities, but scientific data would be the strong and important ingredient of our products. That's our distinctiveness. For logistics, the concept is that the room in logistics, especially rails in Thailand, is quite large. We don't focus in investing like the whole system, like the whole rail system. We are not doing that, but we just trying to fill the gap. The gap in sea logistics, air logistics or rail logistics. We transport not passengers, but goods. We can see that there are a lot of rooms that we can fill in the existing infrastructure. We see a lot of opportunity in there.

When we started with logistics, then commodity trading would be following. If we can connect the rails to China, then products from China and Thailand would go back and forth if we have the rail connection. We would focus on rail, air transport and the cold chain storage business, like seafood, fruits. We already established the company to do that. We signed the MOU with Thai Airways and China on rail transport. Once we start, which is expected to be within this year. AI robotics, this is quite a large business. We try to look into the feasibility. After a while of exploring, we would stop, focus, and synergize. PTT, they have Mekha V company which would focus on 5 areas. It might be through M&A like power tech, mobility tech, health tech, soft power tech, and industrial tech.

AI robotic is quite large when we talk about it, so we try to categorize it and focus. Otherwise, we would have our businesses here and there and scattering. For the AI platform, we are now trying to construct a specific platform, not like Alibaba or Agoda. That's the large platform, which high investment, but we would try to construct specialty platform like peer-to-peer energy trading to industrial estate. For the AI, we have a lot of talents to build upon predictive maintenance. We have Prediktor company to use AI in the prediction of machines. We started to join hands with digital partners in doing telemedicine businesses. Once we have our specific partners, and once we construct a digital platform, we have about 22,000 platforms, physical platform to synergize.

These are all the business plan that we have in the pipeline during these coming two or three years from now.

Paisit Tanapongphan
VP of Investor Relations, PTT Public Company

Next, let's take a look at the outlook and guidance. Starting with world economy. We reckon it will grow slower than last year because of tighter monetary policy, particularly in the U.S. where inflation is the main concern or the ongoing Russian-Ukraine war. The good news is the bounce back of China this year and Thailand's economy growth, which is better than the year before. We just opened the country officially end of last year. This year we are going to recognize the impact across the year. Surely it's tourism is bouncing back. Investment, consumption should recover. What is going to slow down would be the state stimulus programs which the government shall phase out, export is contingent upon global economic health. Product pricing.

Gas, LNG, we reckon it would be down, and it should be in the range of $3-$9. Asian spot LNG should be about 26% down to $22-$28 per million BTU. Whereas Dubai price is heading downwards at 81, we reckon $81. Fuel oil should come down by about 10% as well. Singapore GRM will be less versus last year. This year should be about $8-$9 per barrel. We should keep an eye on this because looking at GRM alone last year, due to the war, a lot of premiums have surfaced. This year crude premium should come down and therefore the spread would narrow down as well as premium costs. For petrochemical, spread is not so good we reckon because recovery and demand remain soft with new supply coming online.

Business trends, business outlook, E&P of EP, we expect volume, sales volume increase due to ramping up of G1. At about 200, it should be up to 400 mid-year and year, 600, 800 next year, gradually up. Gas business expected to be up, particularly demand from power sector and higher supply from Gulf of Thailand and capacity of GSP should be revived and also gas costs. We still have to monitor because LNG, spot LNG price remains volatile or should improve on higher GDP and P&R business. GRM in the range of $8-$9. As I said, the utilization rate would be higher because last year we've done a lot of maintenance shutdown. Demand is back for power plant. Projection is better, to what extent we'll have to see.

In the past, higher cost FT repressed, but now less cost and FT announced plays a part as well, whether it will dip according to the cost. We don't reconcile because it's not just private power producers alone. EGAT has been hugely impacted as well in the tune of billions of THB. I think gradually they have to pay back as well. Private power producers shall benefit from gradual decrease of FT. That's our projection. Future energy. Arun Plus intends to expand and deliver EV charger by 3,800 units and OR expand its EV charger network steadily in order to achieve about 800 stations in 2023. It's not about installation, it's the licensing regime of the utilities authority. We start talking to utilities provider to authorize meters.

If you go to OR petrol stations and you found machines, but you cannot charge, not because we haven't done our work, it's just that we are not licensed to operate. Now we are trying to break that barriers and beyond business. The various projects are starting to COD this year. I already said nonwoven fabric, plant-based food, et cetera. These plants should come online later this year. Let's take a look at PTT Group guidance. The main CODs, for example, 5th pipeline phase I, phase II, phase III are due this year. It will contribute to energy security and connection. The East-West connection to be complete GSP number seven to replace GSP number one. The technology will be tech oriented. This will accelerate our Net Zero performance because the new factory will emit considerably less than GSP number one.

This is expected to be COD 1st Q 2024. Petrochemical of PTTGC Olefins to modification and the joint venture with Kuraray 1st Q this year. It will add value for us. New business, future energy and beyond. Nonwoven, I already said EV value chain. Battery. The module battery production plant, capacity of 1,000 megawatt hour. COD expected 4th Q this year. EV manufacturing plant, COD is expected in Q1 next year. Renewable energy projects include solar power plants in India growing according to their quite aggressive plan and offshore wind energy in Taiwan under construction. COD is expected in Q1 2024. Maintenance. Various maintenance work schedule. GSP-2, GSP-3 this year. There are major turnarounds up to 20 days. GSP-3 in September, GSP-2 in November. Ethane separation plant 60 days.

GC Ole one and two major turnaround. Number two and Oleflex turnaround 65 days. Aro number two, 37 days. These are all I guess.

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