PTT PCL (BKK:PTT)
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Apr 30, 2026, 4:36 PM ICT
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Earnings Call: Q4 2021

Mar 1, 2022

Operator

The analyst meeting reporting results of Q4 and year-end. As always, you can send in your questions using chat boxes. We have our CEO and CFO here. Starting with CEO, Khun Auttapol Rerkpiboon, and CFO, Khun Pannalin, please.

Auttapol Rerkpiboon
CEO, PTT Public Company

Good morning, dear analyst fund managers. Today, we are here to talk about Q4 performance and the whole year 2021. I would like to start with highlights of key activities. Starting with establishment of Nuovo Plus, a JV between Arun Plus 51% and GPSC 49%, THB 4.2 billion Baht registered capital in order to support battery business value chain. Nuovo Plus has bought assets of subsidiaries within PTT and GPSC. Starting with energy storage, semi-solid batteries using 24M technology, 30 MW pilot plant, and [in Xi'an], China.

Thirdly, altogether THB 2.9 billion Baht in order to have Nuovo Plus as the battery arm of the PTT Group. Second, we established Horizon Plus. It's a JV between Arun Plus and Lin Yin, which is a subsidiary of Foxconn, THB 2.3 billion Baht capital to operate EV manufacturing business. Final investment decision is due in the first half of this year, and COD is expected in first Q of 2024. Third, we established ReAcc Plus, which is a trading platform or applications for clean energy trading and climate neutrality through digital platform enabling operators to buy clean energy. We also established GPC International Terminal, a joint venture between PTT Tank 30%, CHEC Oversea, and Gulf 40% to operate commercial port in Laem Chabang.

Fifth, Innobic (Asia), joint venture with Aztiq HK Limited to buy shares, all shares of Alvogen, which is the major shareholder of Lotus Pharmaceutical. The investment value is at $475 million. If this deal is finalized, anticipated within Q1 this year, it will make Innobic (Asia) to hold 30% stake in Lotus Pharmaceutical, allowing PTT to operate end-to-end pharma business from R&D, formula research, and distribution. That's our entry into life sciences sector. Number six, PTT Energy Resources or PTTER has sold shares of East Mediterranean Gas or EMG, which operates pipeline business in Egypt. We sold to Snam, which is an Italian-based company. The value is $50 million. EMG will stop being joint venture partner, so total divestment. Let's talk about our group, starting with PTTEP. PTTEP bought 25% stake in Concession Area C from Eni.

This is natural gas and condensate onshore in the middle of Ghasha of UAE. That aligns with PTT's strategy focusing on the Middle East. OR has bought shares in Kamu Tea at THB 480 million Baht, or about 25% stake. Kamu Kamu makes bubble teas and other beverages. This is to diversify OR's product portfolio and strengthen its food and beverage business. Those are key activities. May I talk about the key business drivers?

Overall, I think we all know that crude, natural gas, petrochem product prices that PTT use in referencing our prices, most products increase, price increase across the board, Q4 compared with the previous quarter, as well as annual average 2021 compared with 2020, mainly due to robust demand on the back of global economic recovery and vaccination rollout, and many countries are opening up and practicing internal economic stimulus. Dubai crude Q4 average at $78.4. Fuel oil $71.5. These benefit from higher demand propelled by economic recovery and on the back of higher gas price. That has propelled all to gas switch. Natural gas on PTT's part, Q4 at $8.14 per million BTU, higher by 19% QoQ and year-on-year 5% increase, mainly due to higher LNG import price.

Even so, Gulf and Myanmar gas price comparing year-on-year decrease on the back of fuel oil, but expensive LNG import pushes up average fuel gas price. Petrochemical prices, olefins Q4 PP $1,335, HDPE $1,231 per ton, up on the back of crude. Naphtha price is also higher and lag time in production among the different plants as well as higher demand for online shopping. Whereas aromatics Q4 benzene $996 per ton, PX $963, so down due to concerns over dual control policy. Less demand from downstream producers and inventories in China remain high. In any case, year-on-year it is improving. On the back of a global economic recovery and easing of lockdowns and along the direction of upward oil prices, FX QoQ, FX gain due to stronger baht.

Whereas 2021 compared to 2020, FX, we suffer FX loss due to weaker baht. Those are our key drivers. Khun Pannalin will start on key financial performance.

On PTT, I would like to speak very briefly because we have already reported our financial standings. I think you probably digested our financial statements in Q4 last year. Revenue Q-on-Q is 23% higher from THB 563 billion- THB 600 billion Baht. It's higher across all business groups, driven by both factors of average selling prices of petrol and petrochem products according to global pricing as well as higher sales volumes on the back of economic recovery. EBITDA QoQ is down by about 8% from THB 110 billion - THB 101 billion Baht, mainly because of P&R, NG and trading business. P&R is lower because of petrochem according to the scaling down of spreads.

Refinery business, in fact, accounting GRM increased from 3.2 to 5.9 per barrel in Q4 according to market GRM. Market GRM increased from 2.1 barrel in Q3, resulting in 5.5 barrel in Q4. As a result, refinery business has better account GRM. Again, thanks to easing of lockdown measures in various countries. For gas business, EBITDA is down due to supply business and NGV business because average pool gas price increase. As well as NGV itself, we try to subsidize the price even though our gas separation business performance is good because of average higher selling price. Trading business decrease mainly because of recognizing mark-to-market losses. That's the main reason for EBITDA decrease for trading.

For business and infrastructure, EBITDA is down because of GPSC, lower profits due to higher gas costs and sales to industrial users decrease according to planned maintenance shutdown. E&P business, EBITDA higher due to average selling price on the back of higher oil prices and average price is a little bit up in Q4. Oil business, EBITDA up on the back of higher sales volume, both oil and non-oil, due to easing of lockdowns and opening up the country for tourism. For net income QoQ, up 16% from THB 33 billion- THB 27 billion Baht. This is chiefly because of derivatives loss. Because GC, Thai Oil, PTT Trading and PTTEP.

Because of the oil price rise was less than previous quarter, resulting in less loss plus factors because FX gains increased by about THB 11.5 billion Baht due to stronger baht strengthened in Q4. Whereas Q3, baht was weaker by 1.9 per dollar, resulting in EBITDA being positive factor. There is negative factor that is increase in income tax THB 4 billion Baht due to improved performance of PTT and non-recurring items. More loss by about THB 6.4 billion Baht due to recognition of assets impairment of PTT by about THB 7 billion Baht. I will explain details later. In terms of performance for the whole year, revenue increased by 40% from THB 1.6 trillion- THB 2.2 trillion Baht across all business units due to the higher average selling price. That's a main driver.

EBITDA up by 90% from THB 2.5 billion- THB 4.28 billion Baht. Key attributes from business, especially P&R. Last year, we suffered quite high stock loss, but this year it has turned to be stock gain. As a result, P&R's EBITDA has improved significantly, whereas petrochem business improved as well because of the spreads in olefins and aromatics. E&P EBITDA is higher on the back of higher sales volume, mainly because of Oman Block 61, Malaysia H starting to produce in February last year. Bongkot Contract 4 and Arthit, which is buying more plus average selling price that is higher on the back of crude oil price. For gas business, EBITDA up because of gas separation plant business, which is in every factor, higher selling price, higher volume of sales and lower gas pool price.

These are the three factors boosting performance of gas separation plants last year. Also S&M, sales and marketing business, EBITDA is higher as well on higher selling prices to industry users, reference to fuel oil price in the formula and sales volume is higher as well. Trading EBITDA improves according to margins of condensate domestically and higher sales volume. Oil business EBITDA is better because of oil, benzene and diesel higher profits and profits of non-oil decrease due to higher marketing costs despite higher volume of sales. Business and infrastructure EBITDA is down chiefly because of GPSC. Our new business, its contribution to performance is from GPSC, which we classify in this group. GPSC profits from SPP down due to gas and coal prices that have become higher and more shutdown maintenances of SPPs.

Net income for 2021 higher by more than 100% compared to THB 37 billion Baht up to THB 180 billion Baht. Better EBITDA, as I mentioned. In any case, there are drag factors. Tax incomes increase according to performance by about THB 42 billion Baht. Derivatives loss by about THB 34 billion Baht, because when oil price is higher and we've done derivatives before, so surely losses would increase. That would be offset by physical higher price. For net tax non-recurring items in 2021, losses decreased by about THB 2.5 billion Baht. We will elaborate in the slides to come. May I skip to cash waterfall? You will see that Q4 and Q1, as I said, net income higher by 16% or THB 39 billion Baht.

If we separate by categories, we'll see that in terms of margins, they are down by THB 714 million Baht due to trading, THB 3.7 billion Baht mark-to-market. Gas business down by about THB 2.3 billion Baht. S&M higher gas costs and LNG, more LNG imports resulting in higher gas costs and take or pay of Myanmar gas. If you recall, we have to compensate the state by about THB 2.7 billion Baht. Positive factors, we received shortfall payment from the producers because they could not meet the committed volume. We gained the shortfall, but sales volume is down from power plant segment. For NGV, losses increased according to higher pool gas price and trading. We try to stabilize NGV price, and the margins of NGV are in the loss territory.

For P&R minus stock gain loss, we separate it into a different category. P&R margins down by about THB 900 million Baht from aromatics business, where product spreads is down and olefins less sale volume and hence impacting the picture. Whereas refineries actually improved when it comes to utilization rate from 88% to 102% because Q3 GC did a scheduled maintenance shutdown, IRPC as well, 45 days. Demand increased due to easing of lockdown measures and market GRM also increased from $2.1 - $5.5, as I mentioned earlier. Now new business and infrastructure margins decreased by about THB 450 million Baht due to higher gas and coal costs on GPSC.

Where margins are higher are from PTTEP by about THB 3.3 billion Baht due to 6% increase in selling price of both liquids and gas and slightly higher volume 1% from Malaysia and MTJDA. Oil business margins higher by THB 2.7 billion Baht of both oil and non-oil higher selling volume. Coal business better by about THB 937 Baht according to Newcastle benchmark price. Last year, coal price has improved quite substantially, and sale volume also increased in line with demand. For stock gain, you will see that is decreased by THB 3.4 billion Baht from THB 18 billion Baht to a gain of THB 3 billion Baht, and so stock gain decreased. OpEx higher by about THB 5 billion Baht because of human resource expense, payment of external contractors, PR spending, depreciation and amortization. Down by about THB 5.4 Baht because of PTTEP Bongkot project.

They have revised the cost of decommissioning. Other income down by THB 1.3 billion Baht because of recognition of loss of divestment of Emery of GC. At the same time, gain from EMG, THB 1.4 billion Baht. They net off each other. Impairment higher by about THB 8.3 billion Baht, chiefly because in Q4, recognition of PTT EP's impairment in Mozambique and Yetagun, THB 6.1 billion Baht. PTT itself recognizes impairment of NGV, THB 3 billion Baht. FX and derivatives improved by about THB 23 billion Baht. FX loss is less of losses because of commodities derivatives. FX gain is better by THB 15 billion Baht due to a stronger baht, as we mentioned earlier. Half a baht stronger. For corporate income tax and non-controlling interest, that's a negative factor by about THB 5.7 billion Baht.

THB 4.2 billion Baht more in tax expenses because PTTEP has higher profits and higher interest expense by about THB 300 million Baht. Waterfall for the whole year, net income higher than 100%. You will see that the main attributes are from much improved margins, THB 148 billion Baht from every single factor ranging from E&P. Better margin by THB 56 billion Baht from both higher sales volume, 18%, due to acquiCition of Oman Block 61. Bongkot Contract 4 Arthit and Malaysia Block H. Average selling price up 12% according to higher liquids price. P&R margin better by about THB 55 billion Baht because of refinery business, which has higher stock gains and market GRM. Petrochem business, where prices and spreads are higher, both for olefins and aromatics. Gas business improved, both separation plant and S&M. GSP, both selling price and volume.

Less cost, as I talked about earlier. S&M, better margin from average selling price and higher volume. Stock gain is a positive factor by THB 65 billion Baht because in 2020 we had stock loss. Whereas, 2021, stock gain of about THB 46 billion Baht. That has improved substantially. Negative factors are from OpEx, higher by THB 11 billion Baht. Again, from human resource and logistics costs. DD&A higher to the tune of THB 7 billion Baht due to PTT EP's acquisition of Oman Block 61. Other income higher by THB 5.3 billion Baht because of mostly one-time items. Goodwill acquisition of Oman Block and writing off of the project in Brazil, so on the basis of 100%. Profits from selling the pipeline business in Egypt, THB 4 billion Baht, and loss from Emery restructuring of GC. All are calculated within this basket.

Impairments are net higher by about THB 1.3 billion Baht because of recognition of PTT EP's Mozambique, Yetagun, and NGV. For GC, U.S. projects about THB 1.9 billion Baht. In 2020, we recognized impairment for coal, about THB 8.7 billion Baht, and Mariana Oil Sands and Yetagun of PTT EP, THB 2.8 billion Baht. FX and derivatives loss are higher by about THB 50 billion Baht. Because in 2020, we have gains of about THB 11 billion Baht, but 2021, loss of THB 38 billion Baht. After netting, the difference looks like FX and derivatives are very high in the range of THB 50 billion Baht mostly. Because of commodities price hedging for EP trading, IRPC, Thai Oil, GC, and PTT itself. For FX loss is higher by THB 15.7 billion Baht because of weaker baht.

For lastly, interest and CIT and NCI, you see that these are negative factors by about THB 78 billion Baht because of higher tax expenses by THB 40 billion Baht and NCI higher by about THB 41 billion Baht, thanks to improved performance. That's the cash waterfall.

Pannalin Mahawongtikul
CFO, PTT Public Company

Now, for the PTT business itself, if you look at Q-on-Q performance. Gas business and trading business, Q-on-Q EBITDA for PTT only dropped 18% from THB 25 billion Baht to THB 20.6 billion Baht in Q4 as a result of gas EBITDA on the whole dropping 18%, mainly from S&M EBITDA lower by 63% because of higher gas costs at 19% because of LNG import at higher volumes. In fourth quarter, more spot LNG were imported to replace Gulf of Thailand gas towards the end of Erawan and Bongkot Concession, and to also supplement the Zawtika field gas shutdown. Sales volume dropped 2% from 4,224 MMcfd- 4,158 MMcfd, mainly from power plant customers.

Other costs increased under S&M EBITDA because of take or pay of Myanmar gas return to government at THB 2.7 billion Baht, when netting with the payment for delivery shortfall at THB 1.7 billion Baht. The average selling price to industrial customers will increase in line with FO reference price. TM EBITDA dropped 7% because of the higher fuel gas costs by 90% and the higher maintenance costs in Q4. GSP EBITDA Q-on-Q higher by 3% because of higher average selling prices because of the rising petrochemical prices that we use as reference.

Volume dropped by 3% from 1,694 K ton- 1,637 K ton in Q4 because of the lower LPG sales volume on the back of falling demand in the petrochemical segment and the lower production capacity of GSPs in certain sites and delivery also lower. Feed costs increased by 1.5%. NGV loss increased by THB 787 million Baht or over 100%. Mainly because of lower margin as a result of higher fuel gas costs and the price cap of NGV. As we already mentioned, that we will maintain NGV's price until the 15th of March this year. Sales volume increased by 19% because of higher oil price induced several users to switch to gas.

The volume increased from 2.7 K ton in Q3 to 3.2 K ton in Q4. Others dropped by THB 391 million Baht, mainly from PTT NGD because of higher gas costs linked to FO price. Trading EBITDA dropped by 25% mainly because of lower margin by 44% from THB 0.16 Baht to THB 0.09 Baht per liter because of MTM loss. Sales volume jumped 48% from 16 million liters in Q3 to 25 million liters in Q4 because of the higher sales of crude imports and sales of crude brought on the back of the easing of lockdown and more demand for LNG and refined oil products as well.

Year-over-year, EBITDA increased 59% from about THB 58 billion Baht in 2020 to THB 91 billion Baht in 2021. If you look at the contributions coming from gas and trading, which saw a better improvement. Gas big S&M EBITDA increased by 77% because of higher average selling price, and sales volume also increased. 5% increase of pool gas cost plays a negative factor. Other costs include take or pay from Myanmar gas field, 2.7. That also another negative factor. TM EBITDA dropped by 5%, mainly from the drop in the number of pipeline customers in the non-firm group, namely SPP industry and NGV, in line with the gas use trend. GSP EBITDA improved more than 100% from 2020, whereby GSP suffered several negative factors.

In 2021, we enjoyed three types of positive factors. Therefore, the performance improved by 100% in terms of EBITDA. NGV EBITDA dropped by 29% as a result of higher pool gas and the price cap of NGV. Overall, the sales volume also dropped by 20%. Others EBITDA improved by 25%, mainly from PTT and GD, because of improved performance as a result of better average selling point reference to FO price and the higher sales volume. At this meanwhile, PTT LNG may continue to make stable income contribution to PTT. Trading EBITDA improved by 80% due to positive factors, mainly margin improved by 49% from THB 0.07- THB 0.10 Baht per liter from margin condensate.

That is higher as a result of better spread margin and the discount from the earning per unit. LPG, LNG, aromatics are also on the rise. Volumes increased by 5% from 75 billion liters in 2020 to almost 90 billion liters in 2021 because of sales of imported crude and export of crudes, as well as the sales to refineries increased as well as sales of petrochemical as well. On the financial position, balance sheet increased by 21% or THB 534 billion Baht cash.

Invest now. Now PTT is in the reinvestment mode. We spend money investing, resulting in cash on hand and short-term investment, probably less. Other current assets increased by about THB 180 billion Baht, mainly because of inventories and accounts receivable. Non-current assets increased by about THB 200 billion Baht because of intangible assets and goodwill from the acquisition of Allnex, of GC investment in Chandra Asri of Thai Oil and Avaada's investment by GPSC, resulting in other non-current assets increase. Land, property, PP&E increased by THB 1.3 billion Baht because of PTTEP's acquisition of Block 61 Oman and construction of CFP of Thai Oil, resulting in higher PP&E. In terms of liabilities and equity, with the increase of non-current assets, other liabilities will increase accordingly, so up by more than THB 100 billion Baht due to higher price factor.

Interest-bearing debt higher by about THB 150 billion Baht because last year PTT Group has borrowed long-term and issued debentures because of GC, PTT and Thai Oil. Equity increased by THB 187 billion Baht on the back of higher net income, and OR has finished the IPO. Financial ratios. Net debt to EBITDA in 2021 is down from 1.68 to 1.37. Even though net debt are higher, group EBITDA has recovered more, resulting in less financial ratio. Net debt to equity is higher from 0.29 to 0.40. Overall, they are still within PTT's framework of financial ratios. For cash flows, consolidated cash flows toward end of last year, we have cash and cash equivalents at THB 332 billion Baht. Between year, netting cash out is THB 19 billion Baht.

By year-end, ending cash is at THB 317 billion Baht. These factors are explained by cash flow from operations last year. We received about THB 322 billion Baht. Investing activities, we are actively investing, spending THB 385 billion Baht on what? As I said, GC bought Allnex. PTTEP acquired Block 61, Oman. Thai Oil invested in Indo, GC in Avaada. We invested THB 256 billion Baht CapEx, mainly from Thai Oil, PTTEP investment in Area 1 Mozambique. G 261 LNG is under construction. The port at Nong Fab and the fifth gas transmission pipeline. That explains the CapEx. Others are about short-term, long-term loans within group, THB 28 billion Baht. Bonds are up for redemption. Current investment THB 34 billion Baht. Dividend interest received THB 7.2 billion Baht. After netting, free cash flow is minus by THB 62 billion Baht.

Let's take a look at financing activities. We have borrowed from financial institutions, issuing bonds to the tune of THB 200 billion Baht. Repayment happened as well. After netting, the borrowing is higher by about THB 100 billion Baht. OR received IPO THB 55 billion Baht. Pay dividend across groups THB 78 billion Baht. Interest payment THB 22 billion Baht. After netting THB 46 billion Baht, plus adjusted factor cash out THB 19 billion Baht. Ending cash THB 312 billion Baht, plus short-term investments that we have THB 49 billion Baht. Therefore, cash ending plus short-term investment is at THB 361 billion Baht. Now the CEO will talk about CapEx.

Auttapol Rerkpiboon
CEO, PTT Public Company

For the five-year investment plan, committed CapEx of PTT and wholly owned subsidiaries total $3.2 billion, consisting of 80% investment in core businesses, namely 45% natural gas into GSP Number 7, which will have the capacity replacing unit one, 460 MMCFD COD 2023.

GSP Number 8 for imported LNG. COD about 2025. Gas pipeline 20% consisting of Bang Pakong- South Bangkok. COD 2025. Onshore, the fifth onshore pipeline to be completed end of this year. LNG receiving terminal 17% investment, and this will increase the capacity of the second LNG terminal 7.5 million tons per annum. COD in 2023. 2022. New business and infrastructure consisting of EV value chain of Arun Plus, Laem Chabang Port phase III. New businesses through Innobic.

Investment in venture capital EECi. Altogether 16% and 2% investing in international trading activities.

Pannalin Mahawongtikul
CFO, PTT Public Company

CapEx.

Apart from committed CapEx, we also have provisional capital expenditure. Over the next five years, the amount earmarked is THB 238 billion Baht to support PTT strategic vision, powering life with future energy and beyond. Investment provisionally will be geared towards new business, new energy sources, namely clean energy and renewables. About 12,000 MW within 2030, and other new businesses, such as life science, pharmaceutical, nutrition, medical devices, logistics and infrastructures, as well as LNG value chains. That will be covered by provisional CapEx of about THB 238 billion Baht. Now, committed CapEx of PTT Group over the next five years will be worth THB 944 billion Baht or $29 billion.

54% of which will go to upstream businesses on for onshore/offshore exploration and production projects such as Bongkot and Area 1 Mozambique, Area 1 Algeria and Southwest Vietnam. Those are the projects located abroad. For downstream projects will take up about 31% in GC acquired Allnex, Thai Oil's invested in Clean Fuel Project, or we'll expand in both oil and non-oil businesses in as well as out of the country. IRPC will continue to invest in other Clean Fuel Project. Power business receive 4%, mainly in renewable energy sources, including solar and wind and the Energy Recovery Unit or ERU. The provisional capital expenditure over the next five years of the whole group totaled about THB 747 billion Baht. Now, let me touch on our ESG strategy.

Because of concern for the world environment, the Prime Minister delivered a statement at COP 26 that Thailand will achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and net zero emissions by 2065, and that form the basis for our policy, our environment policy. I will start with the environmental front first. We have used the Prime Minister's statement on Thailand's vision concerning sustainability as the basis for formulating our environmental policy. We reviewed the ESG emission target and want to reduce the emission by 15% to achieve Thailand's Net Zero vision. In 2021 last year, absolute GHG emission Scope 1 and 2 of PTT Group, the target was 35.5 million ton carbon dioxide CO2 equivalent, and we in fact exceeded the target. The emission was 32.4 million ton carbon dioxide equivalent.

We have already set up PTT Group Net Zero task force to formulate the net zero policy for the whole group, and we will make a clear announcement on this by within the first half of this year to indicate the roadmap whereby PTT Group will undertake to achieve net zero. PTT also work together with public and private partners in order to define policies and mechanisms to support the reduction of emissions and to achieve net zero. We work together with the Ministry of Energy in order to draft the long-term strategies on greenhouse gas of Thailand. We work with the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, the Forestry Ministry, the Marine Resources and the Coastal Resources, and the National Park Department to draft legal provision and mechanism to support a carbon credit mechanism from the forestry sector.

We also form Thailand Carbon Neutral Network to strengthen collaboration between public and private sector to reduce greenhouse gas emission. PTT also has been awarded the sustainable low carbon society award from the Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization. PTT also work together with its subsidiaries to develop loop container upcycling, a prototype project using used loop containers to make traffic cones and donated them to the police, the traffic police. On the social aspects, PTT have made contributions to support our society during the pandemic in many ways. Since the start of the outbreak, we have worked extensively. For example, providing support to field hospital and set up field hospitals around the country. We have recently launched a Giving Breath project to set up screening units at field hospital end-to-end 1 00 green beds, 120 red beds donated so far.

All in all, our efforts to provide relief during the pandemic amounted to THB 9 billion altogether. In addition, we also support reforestation project. We set up three learning centers, the Urban Forest Park Learning Center, Sirinath Rajini Learning Centre in order to disseminate knowledge about reforestation. In addition, we also plant Urban Forest Park in Khung Bang Kachao in Bangkok, in the vicinity of Bangkok. We also promote social investment through social enterprise projects through Sarn Palung Social Enterprise Company Limited. Projects, for example, Café Amazon for Chance to create employments for disadvantaged groups, such as people with hearing impairments and military veterans to increase income up to THB 7,000 Baht per person per month.

Another project, a community coffee project, to help farmers increase their income by THB 10,000-THB 20,000 Baht per household. Forests for Chance to expand forest coverage in the country by employing the unemployed and local communities to grow the forest. PTT Group has also accomplished its objectives concerning lost time accidents and other occupational health and safety indicators. On the good governance side, we have transformed our business model and direct all the operations towards sustainability with investments in renewables. We have been assessed in terms of our good corporate governance in the excellent CG scoring for the 13 years running. Our integrity and transparency assessment is also in the A level with the total scoring of 94.2.

Because of these achievements, we continue to be selected as a member of the DJSI in Silver class for the 10th running year. We also selected as the recipient of the S&P Global Sustainability Award in Silver class. We are also winning the sustainability award for 13 years running. As a result of all these operations, we contribute and fully support all of the 17 SDGs. That's the operations as far as the ESG strategy is concerned for the sustainability of our organization as well as the country.

Auttapol Rerkpiboon
CEO, PTT Public Company

May I start with global economic outlook? IMF forecast world GDP in 2022 to grow by about 4.4%, slightly down from 2021. Except Japan, where growth will be higher from 1.6% to 3.3%, and Thailand is forecast to grow higher from 1.6% to 4.1%. Enabling factors include vaccination rates and more effective therapies, resulting in less critical patient cases. In any case, we have to monitor quite a number of negative factors, including the Omicron, as well as the persistent disparities in access to vaccinations and therapies. These could risk variants and also continued supply-demand imbalances, furthering higher inflation. We have to monitor the U.S. inflation control policy, and this may lead to tighter monetary situation. China's still standing by its zero COVID policy and therefore locking down the country.

These are factors to monitor. Now let's take a look at Thailand. Various institutes forecast growth. Actual of 2021, 1.6. Factors. Positive factors include higher vaccination coverage and the government's policy on learning to live with COVID-19 to boost consumption and ease pandemic-related measures, border reopening to allow international tourism, merchandise exports continuing to grow and easing monetary policy to support recovery. Even though inflation is higher, it remains within target. Negative factors, fiscal space is shrinking and heavier public debt burdens. These are limitations for recovery. It is forecast that GDP is unlikely to return to pre-pandemic level until 2023. Those are global and Thai economic outlooks. Now let's take a look at petroleum and gas outlook.

Petroleum and gas products this year are likely to be higher across all product categories, supported by higher demand and low inventories level. The key factors to monitor are the Russia-Ukraine tensions, how it is going to unfold. It will surely impact oil price directly. Negative factors include continuing COVID-19 pandemic, OPEC+ position. They still stick together, and they will steadily increase production until September this year. Refinery maintenance season, that will result in less demand for crude. U.S. supply, that is likely to increase. Iran itself is expected to return to the scene in the latter half of this year if the U.S. lifts sanctions. We have to monitor Iran-U.S. nuclear negotiation. Pricing outlook, Dubai should average in the range of $81-$86. Actual 2021 at $69.

Refined oil products will also increase along with oil price as well, resulting in Singapore GRM in the range of $5.5-$6.4, whereas actual 2021 is at $3.4. Natural gas LNG increase as well. Asian spot LNG should be in the range of $22.7. Those are petroleum prices. Let's take a look at petrochem. Olefins, aromatics are expected to increase, except PP compared to 2021 because of tight supply and seasonal maintenance from Q1 to Q2, and demand is likely to recover. Negative factors to watch would be pressure from new demand for olefins, aromatics from Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, particularly China. Forecast HDPE up by 49% to $1,215-$1,065.

PP slightly down, 0.8% down, in the range of $1,290-$1,340 this year. Benzene up by about 7.5%, in the range of $960-$1,010. PX up by about 16% to $980-$1,030. Now I would like to share PTT Group 2022 guidance. E&P sales volume this year is forecast to be 467 billion barrels per day, up 12%. Their unit cost will be 5% lower to the rate of $28 per barrel due to recognition of the whole year sale of Block H, Malaysia and acquisition of Block 61 in Oman. These two production fields, production costs are low. Gas, natural gas demand will recover.

Gas demand is forecast to increase at average 3.5% and average gas price this year is likely to be higher by 30%-50% against 2021 according to benchmark prices and more expensive LNG imports. Gas separation sale volume expected to be down according to capacity of GSP. Yield rate is 82%-87% compared to 2021's yield rate of about 90%. Oil, OR, domestic demand shall rise. On the back of recovery, we will increase 186 more service stations, 129 in Thailand, 57 outside Thailand. Café Amazon adds 506 stores, 380 in Thailand and the rest outside Thailand. P&R refinery is expected to recover. Singapore GRM, I already mentioned, in the range of $5.4-$6.4 per barrel.

Yield rate of PTT Group is in the range of 91%-95% compared to last year, 95%. Petrochemical, higher demand from global economic recovery. In any case, the proviso, we have to monitor new capacities, whether they are as planned, to what extent. Power business, GPSC, domestic electricity consumption shall improve. New energy business, be it Arun Plus. They set the target of EV charger at 1,350 units. OR aims at EV charger of 200 inside PTT stations, plus 150 outside PTT stations. In 2022 for EVme aims at producing 500 units of EV. Last year, they made about 200. The lease rate is 90%, which is deemed extremely successful new business. Arun Plus, I'm sorry, Innobic shall recognize net income from Lotus in Q2. Gas pipeline.

The fifth gas pipeline is expected to be completed end of this year. LNG receiving terminal number two. Their capacity of 7.5 million tons per year. The first 2.5 million tons shall be completed in May or June, and the full 7.5 million tons capacity will happen in December this year. Therefore, increasing PTT Group's capacity to import LNG. Foxconn JV, I mentioned already. FID in the first half of the year. If things go as planned, factory construction can start in the latter half of this year for COD. In 2020, for the nonwoven fabric JV between IRPC and Innobic, capacity of 5.6 thousand tons. This can be COD in 2Q this year. The high quality circular plastic resin plant, PET and HDPE capacity, 45K tons per annum.

This is expected to COD within Q1 this year. Avaada that GPSC invested in India. Their total capacity is 4,600 MW. That's GPSC portion is about 1,900 MW. Already COD 2,200 and under construction another 2,000 MW. This will reinforce the renewable share of 12 GW within 2030 of PTT Group. Maintenance shutdown, I will not go into details, but such is the maintenance schedule from Q2, Q3, Q4. Gradually, these different capacities shall shut down for their scheduled maintenance. That's all for Q4 and 2021 performance.

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