Good morning, everyone. Welcome to True Corporation's earnings disclosure for the fourth quarter of 2024. My name is Naureen. I'm the head of investor relations. With me today are our CEO, Khun Manat, our Deputy CEO, Khun Sharad, and our Co-CFO, Khun Nakul.
Good afternoon.
We are having this meeting in a hybrid format, so with us in the room today are also some of our local Thai analysts. To ask questions, please raise your hand. For those of you in the room, we will take your questions first. For those of you on Zoom, please raise your hand. We will be taking your questions after we finish the ones in the room. In case you cannot raise your hand, please drop a message in the chat box. In case you cannot do that either, please just reach out to me over email or text. This meeting is going to be one and a half hours, so please bear with us. With that, I would like to pass on to Khun Manat to begin our presentation.
Okay, thank you. Good morning, everyone. Welcome the analysts from offline and online today. First time for our hybrid. Thank you for being here today for our Q4 2024 update. I'm excited to share how True Corporation is driving connectivity, powering the digital growth, and creating the sustainable value for all of our stakeholders. I'm proud to announce that for the seventh consecutive year, number one most sustainable telecom company under the DJSI 2024, that's recognized for a better daily life, a higher quality of life for everyone in Thailand. We're investing in environmental initiatives like solar cells, solar power sites to cut carbon emissions and protect our planet. At the same time, we're working hard to bridge the digital divide, ensuring education, healthcare, and digital opportunities are within reach for all.
Our strong governance and ethical AI practice continue to set global standards for transparency and accountability. Putting humanity dedicated to innovating, empowering communities, and building a safer, healthier, and more productive future for all. Let's now take a closer look at the financial and operational performance over the past year. Despite facing external challenges, we achieved eight consecutive quarters of EBITDA growth, reaching THB 98.1 billion in 2024. Our relentless focus on profitability has also resulted in a steady quarter-on-quarter rise in normalized EBITDA, which totaled THB 9.9 billion this year. I'm pleased to report that our data modernization efforts are progressing well, with 77% of our sites, about 13,000 in total, solidifying our leadership in 5G. It's a real honor that the Stock Exchange of Thailand recognized us as a Deal of the Year, highlighting our commitment to sustainable growth in this equity story.
Let's move on to how we're enhancing the customer experience that we drive into our three must-win battles. Our key focus on these main three areas is to deliver, number one, world-class customer experience, become number one digital growth champion for consumers, business, and for Thailand, be the number one future-ready performance team. Let's dive into each section and explain how we grow in 2025. Our focus on the network consolidation is helping us deliver a truly world-class experience to our customers. We are tracking the tower reduction plan, targeting 18,000 towers by Q3 2025 to optimize coverage and efficiency. This target of 18,000 is an upward revision from the earlier communicated target of 17,000. We have identified additional opportunities to modernize more towers, including in-building solutions. Now, to date, over 13,000 have already been modernized, ensuring our customers enjoy faster speed and reliable connectivity nationwide.
Thanks to our AI-first approach, our AI-Mari service has handled more than 22 million transactions with 92% solved digitally. We're aiming for a 30% shift to the digital transaction by the end of this year, further enhancing our service quality. Next, let's dive into how our mobile services evolve into a holistic lifestyle offering. We remain committed to delivering best-in-class device value along with personalized lifestyle services that truly enrich our customer life. This transformation position should add a digital growth champion as we shift from a mobile-first to a lifestyle-driven model. On one side, we're proud to offer the best value for 5G devices. Our 5G subscribers have experienced around 10%-15% boost in the ARPU and about 30% increase in the data usage in 2024, clear indicators of a strong demand for advanced connectivity.
On the other hand, our personalized benefit and privilege, including TrueID, True CyberSafe, True Protect, and TrueYou, is designed to enrich our customer lifestyle. Over the past year, customers who fully embraced this offering enjoy nearly double the ARPU and experience 60% less churn compared to those without using privilege, clearly demonstrating the value of our tailored offerings and privileges. By combining the right device, personalized plan, and exclusive privilege, we're creating a comprehensive lifestyle solution that enhances the aspect of our customer digital experience. So let's share and move to the FunLife growth in 2025 through our smart living innovations. We're committed to ensure the service experience backed by the technology, service excellence, and innovation to accelerate net growth from last year. Our router features embedded AI for real-time monitoring and automatic ticketing, meaning potential issues identified and resolved before they affect our customers.
We continue improving our after-sales service with our partner with shared measurements and technology put our customer at the center. For certain segments, which require 24/7 internet availability, we just have offered add-on dongle allowing our Gigatex router to switch automatically from wireline to wireless. If unexpected disruptions occur, this is the new innovation just offered to the customer last month. Our third-generation TrueID TV is built in microphone and camera, enables interactive game, fitness, karaoke, right in your living room for an immersive entertainment experience. We also offer in plug-and-play smart home Gigatex router with Wi-Fi 7, delivering faster wireless coverage, supporting the IoT devices and integrating seamlessly into our TrueX ecosystem. These innovations are designed to cater to today's shifting lifestyle, whether you are a pet owner caring for the elderly or looking to enhance home security and energy management.
As a leader in the smart life solutions, we will safeguard and focus on premium coverage. Offering speed up to two gigabits per second via Wi-Fi 7 to grow our broadband base with good churn and ensure a robust network. We will continue leading by providing service guarantees, quality maintenance, and exceptional after-sales support to ensure the best-in-class smart living experience. Now, let's turn our focus to our enterprise growth strategy through our beyond connectivity portfolio, which has grown 14% year-on-year in 2024. This portfolio includes the management service from the network side, cloud services, IoT solutions, and the cybersecurity solutions, enabling us to provide end-to-end transformation for business across various industries with a head to 2025. We are also focusing on key sectors such as manufacturing, education, healthcare, and SMBs. Tailor our solution to address their unique challenge.
Our global partnership with CP Group, Telenor Group, TrueIDc, Sharad Mehrotra, and others play an important role in delivering innovative solutions, solidifying our position as a top partner for digital transformation in Thailand and beyond. The last must-win battle for us is, I want to highlight how we're building our future-ready organization through synergy realization, organizational transformation, and process automation. We are investing in our people and fostering an innovation-first mindset, creating a unified and engaged team that always puts the customer first. Our operating model changed with partners like Ericsson, TCS, True Touch, focusing on streamlining processes and optimizing resources, which allows us to consistently deliver the superior customer experience. This change is not giving immediate or short-term cost savings, but it will benefit us in the mid to long term in cost savings and capabilities.
By prioritizing AI-led automation, we plan to automate repetitive processes from 18% in 2024 to 40% within 2025, freeing our teams to focus more on innovative initiatives that keep us agile in rapidly changing markets. This effort underscores our commitment to continuous improvement, collaboration, operational excellence, ensuring that True remains a leader in telecommunication and digital services. That's the business must-win battle. Before I hand over to Khun Nakul, I'd like to share our key sustainable initiatives that we remain steady in our net zero commitments, working with 27% of our major suppliers to reduce CO2 emissions and lower our overall carbon footprint. Our HACK BKK initiative drives innovative e-waste solutions, ensuring safe disposal and upcycling for a healthier environment for Thais. Through our education programs like True Digital Academy, TruePlookpanya, and Connext ED, we empower 32 million learners in Thailand with AI-ready skills, fostering digital inclusion in Thailand.
With our responsible AI roadmap, we maintain the highest standard of governance, reinforcing our reputation as a more sustainable telco globally, as recognized by the DJSI. Thank you for your continued trust and support for True Corporation. I will hand over my presentation to Khun Nakul, and hopefully this will be a good session. Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you so much, Khun Manat. Good morning, good afternoon, everybody. Please allow me to walk you through the financial highlights for Q4 and for the full year 2024. I'll also take this opportunity to give you an update on the mid- to long-term ambitions for True Corporation. As far as the highlights are concerned, in the fourth quarter of 2024, proud to report that we had a 2.3% growth year-on-year on service revenue, a marginal growth of 0.2% QoQ.
For the full year 2024, we had a 4.6% growth year-on-year, especially good in a year of transformation for us. As far as the EBITDA is concerned, 12% growth on a year-on-year basis for fourth quarter, 1% QoQ growth, which marks eight consecutive quarters of growth for this amalgamated company. Full year 2024 is 14.5% growth for us, which is outperforming the guidance that we have given to the capital markets. The normalized profit for fourth quarter is about THB 3.6 billion , which THB 500 million higher than the previous quarter, and for the full year, we report normalized profit close THB 10 billion, or approximately THB 9.9 billion. More importantly, the leverage has seen a gradual reduction and continues to reduce this quarter as well.billio We've improved the leverage by 0.2x in this quarter, 1x for the full year 2024 as well, and we end fourth quarter at 4.2x, outperforming the guidance that we have given to the capital markets at the capital markets day. If I go on to the business drivers, first, let me focus on the total revenues and the service revenue for fourth quarter and full year. The service revenue increased 2.3% on a year-on-year basis, which is a growth mainly driven by mobile and online segments. As you can see on the left, the service revenue marginally improved 0.2% QoQ. This is coming on the back of growth in mobile business, offset by lower contribution from online and TV, which I will explain in a subsequent slide.
If I look at the product sales, the product sales have actually declined 6.9% on a year-on-year basis due to our continued efforts on optimization of subsidy. We've also improved 45% QoQ because of seasonality and due to the launch of the iPhone that happened early in the fourth quarter. I must highlight that the subsidy per unit has remained more or less stable, and we are quite managing this quite well. The total revenue has increased 1.6% on a year-on-year basis for the full year, which is driven by growth in service revenue. You can see a decline in interconnection revenue of about THB 1.5 billion, but as you all know, this was on the back of a one-time benefit that we recorded in 2023.
If I go on to the mobile business, we've seen a 2.1% growth in mobile service revenue, which is driven by growth in prepaid. And more importantly, as I had explained earlier, the subscribers are back to growth. I think a lot of you had expressed some concerns on the last few quarters. The subscriber net adds have been negative. So this quarter, we report positive subscribers both on prepaid as well as our postpaid business. If I look at from right to the left, our output on the prepaid business has continued to improve, in fact. QoQ, we've improved 4.2%, and year-on-year, 11%, ending at THB 121. Postpaid output has remained stable at THB 426 on a QoQ basis, but for the full year, it has improved 1.5%.
As a consequence, the blended output has actually improved 2.2% QoQ and about 5.9% on a year-on-year basis, ending at THB 215. As I mentioned, the subscriber growth has been positive, 0.2% growth QoQ. The decline that you see from the previous year was thanks to the focus that we had on quality subscriber acquisition, which has benefited us on the EBITDA. As you can see, the SG&A is down significantly from the previous year. In addition, in collaboration with law enforcement agencies on scam prevention, we have churned 133,000 customers in Q4. The point I'm trying to make is, if 133,000 churn was not there, then our subscriber net adds would have been even more healthy at 250,000. Hence, as a consequence, the mobile service revenue has grown close to 0.7% on a QoQ basis, 2.1% year-on-year.
For the full year, thanks to the efforts that we had done on price rationalization, we are benefited by the growth in the mass and migrants as well as higher influx of tourists. We had a full-year growth of 4% in mobile service revenue. As far as the online business is concerned, we have a 3.9% year-on-year growth in online revenues with a 5.8% improvement in output. Again, from the right to the left, as you can see, the output has improved about 5.8% on a year-on-year basis. [There was a] slight decline in the quarter, which is primarily on account of certain solution sales that we recorded on the B2B business in Q3, which has had a normalization effect in Q4.
There is a 1% decline QoQ on online revenue, as I mentioned, which is basically on account of lower corporate internet business, while the consumer broadband has slightly grown on a QoQ basis. There is a 6.2% growth full year in the online business, which is driven by increase in output from the removal of discounts and also the upselling of tariffs of a higher value to our customers, something that we have been mentioning for the last few quarters. If we go on to the TV business, there is a 7.6% growth in pay TV revenue on a year-on-year basis and 8.9% decline QoQ, which is due to lower concerts. As we had mentioned earlier, Q3, we had seasonally high concerts, and that's why the revenue growth in Q3 was higher. When I compare Q3 versus Q4, it shows a decline.
There is also growth in the EPL subscription revenue, which is something that I had highlighted in Q3 as well, that Q3 marked the end of the last season of EPL, and with the start of the new season, these revenues were expected to grow. Yes, then I move on to the next, move a little bit deeper into the OpEx development. There is a 7.7% decline in OpEx, which is benefited by synergies and our ongoing financial discipline. I think this has been the bedrock of eight consecutive quarters of growth and the full focus that we've had on transformation. QoQ OpEx is also impacted by seasonal cost, and yet there is a reduction that you see on a year-on-year basis. Let me go a little bit deeper into the different elements.
The regulatory costs have declined 8.8% on a year-on-year basis due to one-time deductible claim related to USO. The network costs have increased 4.7% QoQ due to procurement-related synergies that were recognized in Q3 and higher operation and maintenance costs from the change in operating model related to organization modernization. What this does is that as we outsource some of the staff to high-class world-class service providers, which Khun Manat had spoken about earlier, TCS, Ericsson, and the like, there is a reduction that happens in the personal cost in the SG&A, and there is a consequent impact in the consulting cost. That's why you see the network cost goes up. There is also a decline in cost of sales, 7.8% on a year-on-year basis due to optimization of subsidy. This is a consistent trend that we see across the industry.
These, of course, have increased 45.6% QoQ, pretty much in tandem with the increase in product sales that I had explained in the previous slide on the revenues as well. The SG&A has declined 22.3% and 8.6%, sorry, 22.3% on a year-on-year, 8.6% on a QoQ basis, which is benefited by synergies, mainly from organization modernization, commercial initiatives, and improved collection. I take you back to first quarter of 2023. Our SG&A was roughly THB 8 billion. So from THB 8 billion, we have reduced almost 37% to about THB 5 billion fast forward eight quarters. The other cost of providing service has increased 2.3% QoQ, which is as expected due to the seasonal content cost increase because of EPL. Accounting for EPL is the more the number of matches, the more the cost needs to be booked. That's why there is an increase. This is as expected.
As a consequence of all of these efforts, for the full year, the OpEx has reduced almost 8%. Then I move on to the profitability metrics. We're proud to report eight consecutive quarters of EBITDA improvement with 14.5% growth on a full year basis, which is surpassing the revised guidance that we have given to the capital markets. Going from left to right, there is a 1% improvement on a QoQ basis, which takes our EBITDA to THB 25.2 billion and a 12% on a year-on-year basis. The EBITDA margin is something that we have been really focusing on because we believe in the strategy of profitable growth. So as you can see, the EBITDA margin for fourth quarter as a percentage of service revenue has improved to 60.6%, and this was 35.4% in the fourth quarter last year.
So in one year, we've seen roughly 5.2% improvement here. Even for the full year, we end the year 2024 at 59.2% EBITDA margin to service revenue, which is again a 5.1% improvement on a year-on-year basis. The right side of this presentation or this slide, I would like to explain in a little bit more detail. All of you have asked us in the past on what are the levers of the EBITDA improvement. So important to give you a walkthrough of how the EBITDA has improved THB 12.4 billion over this last one year. Approximately 7% of the 12.2% improvement in EBITDA is coming from our businesses, mobile, online, TV, and other businesses, and this is on a gross margin level. So the revenues minus the direct cost that are incurred to drive those revenues has resulted in this increase.
So even if the service revenue increase is 4.6%, there is a 7-point contribution of that to the margin. We know that in 2024, we have been benefited by the domestic roaming revenues from National Telecom. That has improved our EBITDA margin by 1.4%. Our EBITDA growth by 1.4%. And at the same time, we've had a one-off benefit that we recorded in FY 2023, which was a negative from last year to this year, which is bringing it down by 1.4%. So these two exceptional items more or less offset each other. Then at the same time, the big benefit that we got from the synergies, and as we had shared some numbers in the capital markets day, the net effect of all the synergies, all the efforts of operational excellence, our financial discipline has resulted in a 7.5% increase in EBITDA on a year-on-year basis.
This is the waterfall explanation of the EBITDA improvement of 14.5% on a year-on-year basis. I hope this gives you a perspective of the different levers that have led to the EBITDA improvement. Going on to the net profit, we report THB 3.6 billion normalized net profit in Q4, which is benefited by the EBITDA improvement and a good reduction in finance costs. Of course, this quarter has had a few one-offs, and let me explain this in a little bit more detail. The net profit in Q4 was negatively impacted by one-time effects of roughly THB 11.1 billion. Let me explain. Approximately THB 3.4 billion of this is non-cash, of which majority is on account of impairment of redundant assets related to network modernization, as we've done in the previous quarters as well.
As and when we modernize our network, we dismantle the equipments, and the accounting standards mandate us to record a write-off as and when the equipments are not in use. This is roughly THB 3.4 billion, again, non-cash. We have recorded approximately THB 5 billion in terms of non-cash adjustment again. Majority of it is the annual impairment exercise. Then we've recorded roughly THB 1.8 billion as loss from investment in associates. This is mainly the valuation of assets that has been done by DIF. And since we have a 20.5% stake in DIF, we've done an equity pickup to the extent of our share of the valuation of assets that was done by DIF. That's roughly THB 1.8 billion, again, non-cash. Last, there is a provision for compensation to local authorities of roughly about THB 0.8 billion, which is expected to be paid in cash in 2025.
As you can see, the majority of this adjustment of THB 11.1 billion is non-cash in nature and non-repetitive. The financial costs have declined 5.2% on a QoQ basis due to a 4.6% reduction in interest expense from the lower net debt and improvement in the effective interest rate, which I will explain in a subsequent slide. The net profit amounted to THB 9.9 billion, as I had mentioned earlier, on a normalized basis, with the CapEx for the fourth quarter at THB 11.4 billion, mainly focusing on network modernization. The full year CapEx, as you can see on the slide, is THB 31 billion as compared to THB 37.1 billion in the previous year. As far as the leverage and the net debt is concerned, there is a THB 35 billion reduction in the net debt over the last one year and a 1x improvement in the leverage as well.
If I go from the left to right again, we end the fourth quarter at about 4.2x net debt to EBITDA, which is a 1x improvement over the last one year. As you can see, the improvement is coming both on account of a healthy improvement in EBITDA as well as an overall reduction in net debt as well. So both levers are contributing to this improvement in the leverage. The effective interest rate has improved to 4.1%. I know optically it looks like it is still 4.1% that was there in the previous quarter, but this is actually 4.06%. So I mean, zero roundup, it's being shown as 4.1% here. But as I mentioned earlier, we've had a good reduction of 5.2% QoQ in the financial cost, which is coming on account of the various initiatives that we have taken in the past.
Most notably, is the improvement in the free cash flows. As far as the debt maturity profile is concerned, roughly THB 89.1 billion is to be refinanced in 2025. But we are proud to say that we have refinanced already THB 126 billion in the year 2024. So from that standpoint, THB 89 billion is relatively small as compared to the mammoth stuff that we have done in 2024. We've also voluntarily repaid the US dollar denominated debt that was done in Q3, which has had a benefit to us in terms of the interest expense as well. We've issued THB 16.5 billion of debentures at a weighted average cost of 3.56% in Q4, and another THB 13 billion at 3.53% has been issued in Q1 already. So as you can see, the new issuances are actually below the effective interest cost of the company.
That's why this is expected to go down as we go forward. My FY23 versus FY24 development. Total revenues increased 1.6%. 4.6% is coming on account of the service revenues. OpEx seen a decline on almost all the elements. There's roughly 7.9% decline. And as a consequence, the EBITDA has improved 14.5%, which if I normalize for the one-time benefit that we got on the settlement of a litigation in 2023, is actually 16.2%. The net profit after tax has improved THB 14.7 billion on a normalized basis with THB 9.9 billion in Q4. It's important to end this section with the comparison versus the guidance that we have given to the capital markets. Yeah.
The initial guidance that we had given in the beginning of 2024 was 2-3% growth in service revenue, excluding interconnect, a 9-11% growth in EBITDA, which was considered quite optimistic actually at that point in time. CapEx at around THB 30 billion and net profit being profitable on a normalized basis. We revise the guidance thanks to a good performance that we had in the first half of 2024. The service revenue was increased from 2%-3% to 3-4%. EBITDA was increased by 3 percentage points from 9-11% to 12-14%. CapEx and net income was remaining unchanged. The achievement for 2024 is actually outperforming the revised guidance as well, especially on the top line and the EBITDA. Revenues we ended up at 4.6%.
I must highlight that this is in the year where we are heavily focusing on transformation. Still, we had an improvement of 4.6% on the revenues. The EBITDA improved at 14.5%, and CapEx was slightly higher than what we had guided to the capital markets at about THB 31 billion. Most notably, we were profitable in the first quarter itself, which was also quite a positive surprise that was well received by the capital markets. I also want to share one more thing here. At the capital markets day on 23rd of September 2023, we had spoken about two financial metrics. Number one, EBITDA as a percentage to service revenue. We had an ambition to reach 59% in 2025 and 63% in 2027. The leverage, our target was to be less than 4.5x in 2025 and less than 4x in 2027.
Actually, we reached the numbers for 2025 five quarters in advance. If you remember our third quarter, our EBITDA margin to service revenue was already higher than 59%, and the leverage was already 4.4x at that point in time. We ended the year, of course, even better at 4.2x. You had all been asking us that since you are outperforming your capital markets day guidance, do we expect to improve these numbers going forward, or is there any uncertainty that we have not factored into our numbers already? Hence, in the last part of this presentation, I will give you an update on what we expect the mid- to long-term view on the financial performance for us. More importantly, I mean, as I start my section on 2025 and the future, I want to highlight on what were the key drivers that resulted in overachievement.
Again, this is a question that everybody has asked multiple times, so that's why we try to explain it in the form of a slide. One, the realization of the synergies. We know that we have accelerated the network modernization, which also has meant that we have written off more than what we had expected to write off in this year. We have over-delivered on the organization modernization. We have recorded performance synergies, which were above our expectations. And also, we have increased our focus on commercial initiatives as well. Then the second reason behind overachievement was the performance management framework. I've explained many a time in the past, but in our company, we hold the CXOs accountable for all revenue and cost streams. Each and every line item in a trial balance is allocated to a CXO in the company.
On top of it, we have annual, quarterly, and monthly targets, which are being monitored on a weekly basis on revenue and a biweekly basis on OpEx or EBITDA. Anything coming out on account of those actions where we do a forecast on how the numbers are going to look like for the month and for the quarter are being taken as actions if they are not as per what we had planned. And each CXO is then held accountable to make sure that they deliver on the plan. More importantly, we have quarterly and annual bonus KPIs, which are linked to the annual and quarterly KPIs, which are linked to the numbers that I had shared in terms of the frames that are given to the CXO.
If one C-level is doing well and the other is not, the company will not get a bonus unless and until everybody is successful on a particular target, which then encourages the organization to work together as a cohesive unit to outperform the company-level targets, not looking at their own targets alone. This has been a key differentiator for us in 2023, continues to be a differentiator in 2024, and we hope that this is going to benefit us in 2025 as well. Last but not the least is the financial discipline. We've shared about our discipline, CapEx management, where CapEx forum, which comprises of the CFOs, the CMO, and the CTO, they look at all CapEx spend in excess of 5 million THB.
I know it sounds bureaucratic, but this is one of the reasons why we've been able to create a lot of discipline in terms of the CapEx spends, yet not disregarding what the customer needs. We have taken wholehearted efforts on market nationalization, as you have seen in the past, in the good output growth of almost 5%, and we've refrained from loss-making propositions. The biggest example of that is EPL. Then my last section of this presentation is giving you a roundup of 2025 to 2027 numbers and the guidance for the year 2025. Before I jump into the guidance of 2025, I want to explain two significant accounting changes that affect our financial statements from August 3rd of 2025. Number one on the left is something that I think all of you are more or less familiar with, but let me explain.
The spectrum roaming arrangement with National Telecom is expected to expire on August 3, 2025, and that's why there is a spectrum auction that is yet to happen sometime in Q2. Right now, this spectrum arrangement is currently recognized as revenue and cost, with the net being negative on the EBITDA. That's roughly THB 1.7 billion per quarter. Once this spectrum is reallocated by means of auction, and if we end up acquiring the spectrum, this will get converted into an intangible asset, which is a CapEx model, with a consequent impact on depreciation and interest expense. The amount of this cannot be determined, of course, because it is determined based on the spectrum auction that will happen sometime in Q2. But what we can confirm and mention to you is that the EBITDA will benefit THB 1.7 billion per quarter on account of this accounting change.
We do expect the net benefit on cash flows and also net benefit on income statement, but again, it will be anybody's guess on what the spectrum auction will entail. The second item is we will transfer some of the assets to DIF on a pre-agreed arrangement that is already existing with DIF upon the expiry of this 850 megahertz arrangement with NT, again on August 3rd, 2025. This will lead to a THB 0.6 billion improvement in EBITDA per quarter because we will end up capitalizing these assets on a lease accounting, which is the TFRS 16. So the EBITDA is going to improve, and the below EBITDA is going to increase as well.
Of course, in the initial year, the impact below the EBITDA is going to be higher because the lease liability is going to be higher, so interest expense is higher, but this will taper off as we go forward. Pursuant to this capitalization, there will be an increase in the lease liabilities, approximately THB 19-20 billion, which is factored into the guidance as well. I must reiterate here that there is currently no new cash obligation for True on account of this change. This is purely an accounting adjustment. Then what you've been waiting for is the guidance for 2025.
On the service revenue, excluding interconnect and excluding the impact of domestic roaming with National Telecom, we expect 2025 to grow 2%-3%, the enterprise to grow 8%-10%, factoring in the accounting changes as well as further synergies as well as the growth in top line. CapEx will be in the range of THB 28 billion-THB 30 billion, maybe perhaps slightly lower than what we had in 2024, and we expect to be profitable on a reported basis. Even if we have to record any impairment, which we will because the network modernization is not complete, we will be profitable. We expect to be profitable on a reported basis for 2025. Our rationale is that the industry is predicted to grow in line with the GDP forecast, which is roughly 2%-3%. The output improvement will continue in the mobile segment.
There is going to be a subscriber growth in online, and there is going to be a muted performance in pay TV because the loss from EPL is already factored into these numbers. As mentioned, the domestic roaming with National Telecom is expected to decline. The EBITDA will be benefited by synergies. We'll be benefited by the spectrum arrangements that I showed in the previous slide, and we'll continue with the financial discipline and the performance management framework that has helped us quite well so far. With the completion of the network modernization project in 2025, this will result in a reported net profit for the company. With that, the dividend consideration of more than 50% of consolidated net profit, of course, which will be subject to the approval of the board of directors, is going to be there in 2025.
Giving you slightly mid- to long-term views, the EBITDA margin, which was 54% in the year 2023, 59% in 2024, is expected to improve to 63% in 2025 and further improve to 67% in 2027. This is a 4 percentage point improvement from what we had shown in the capital markets. And as I mentioned earlier, we are five quarters ahead of what we had planned, so this for us to revise our long-term guidance. EBITDA improvement will be driven by synergy realization and financial discipline. The benefits on account of spectrum arrangement and the capitalization for the assets is already factored into these numbers. CapEx intensity is expected to continue to reduce.
20% was our CapEx to total revenues, excluding the spectrum arrangement, which is the network rental revenue, was 20% in 2023, down to 17% in 2024, further down to THB 28 billion-THB 30 billion capex number that we have guided, is expected to taper down to 13%-14% for the year 2027. We have had higher than anticipated procurement-related synergies. We have had the network modernization that has resulted in the benefits, and also we will get benefits on the spectrum pooling as well. Last but not the least, the disciplined CapEx management definitely has an impact on how the CapEx is going to trend as far as the future is concerned. The most important lever, because at the end of it, you will be concerned about the high leverage that the company has had. 5.2x was what we had in 2023.
In fact, Q1 of 2023 was 5.7. That was in Q1. End of 2023 was about 5.2, which went down to 4.2 in 2024. It's expected to be lower than 4x in 2025, even after considering the increase in the lease liabilities that I showed in the previous slide of roughly THB 20 billion. And then it's expected to go down to less than 3.2x by the year 2027. Two important things to mention here. We are already considering a dividend payment no less than 50% of the consolidated net profit in each of the years. And then on the spectrum, this is a very important assumption, which is the auctions are going to be held very soon.
We have assumed spectrum to be renewed at the reserve price that has been there in the auction, with 10 installments similar to what was there in the 2600 megahertz auction that was last done in 2020. Last slide is basically the key takeaways that we've had from this mid- to long-term ambition. 2023 was the year for us where we had a reported loss. Year where the transformation of the company started. We started to incur huge integration cost, slowly but surely working the company towards operational improvements. 2024 is when we reported normalized profit. In fact, in the first quarter of 2024 itself, yet had a reported loss for the full year because of the write-off that we had to do on the network modernization.
2025, as I've mentioned, will be a reported profitable year for True Corporation, first time since the time the company has amalgamated, and this story is going to continue as we go forward as well. Key takeaways: network modernization will lead to a strengthened leadership position for us. The accelerated synergies, the financial discipline, performance-driven culture will all result in a profitable yet sustainable growth. The completion of network modernization will mean that the company will report a profit on a normalized and reported level as well, and the strengthened cash flow, approximately THB 17.6 billion free cash flow that we generated in the year 2024, has led to and will continue to improve in the future and lead to a gradual reduction in leverage, which is also a significant improvement from what we shared at the capital markets day.
With this, I end my presentation and hand over to Khun Naureen. Thank you, sir.
Thank you, Nakul. Thank you, everyone. We will start with questions from the room first. I believe Khun Jin wants to go first, followed by Khun Wasu. Can you give him a mic?
Hi, I'm Thitithep from KKPS. I have four questions, if you don't mind. Number one is about revenue growth. Your mobile revenue grew 2.2% year on year in the fourth quarter. That deviated from 4.4% growth achieved in the third quarter. And it's below Advanced growth of 5.5%. Can you explain the deviation in growth? And then is that your concern that you are going slower than Advanced or it's okay with you? You focus on profitability. That's the first question.
Number two, when we talk to Advanced management, I think it's pretty clear that they are looking to buy the new spectrum as well, not only the expiring spectrum, because they look at the demand in the next five years. Are you looking to do the same thing, buying the new spectrum? The third one, in the capital day, when you guided the net synergy, meaning the synergy deducted by the integration cost, the big churn would come in 2025. The net synergy is supposed to be bigger than 2024.
Is that still the case? And then the last one, Advanced, it's appointing the Chief Retail Officer to boost their sales. And then I just noticed that their sales revenue per year is actually double your sales revenue, but your service revenue is actually larger than them.
Can you explain the gap, and is there any room for you to grow your sales? Thank you.
Thank you, Khun Jin. We will take the service revenue-related questions first. For spectrum, I will hand over to Khun Manat later. Khun Nakul, maybe you can take the performance question first.
Yeah. Thank you so much, Khun Jin. Your first one on the revenue growth, 2.2%, which seems to be below our competition. That is definitely not a concern, at all. I think it is important to break this down into the different businesses. As far as mobile business is concerned, our growth is close to 1%. That growth is coming on account of the prepaid business, and also the postpaid business is actually flat. As far as online business is concerned, the decline that we've had in this quarter is not on the B2C.
B2C business has continued to improve by about one percentage point. The decline is because of the one-time revenues that we recorded on the B2B side in Q3. So that's why Q3 looks a little bit lower. The B2B business is such that when you sell certain solutions to the customer, there is some increase and decrease that happens on a quarter-on-quarter basis. This you see with a competitor as well. So this is not abnormal. As far as the TV business is concerned, the decline that is there is because of seasonality. And as I mentioned, we had seasonal concerts that were recorded in Q3 for the TV business, which are not there in as much number in Q4. So that's why there is a decline. So if I break it down, I do not think this is an area of concern for us.
As you rightly mentioned, we focus on profitability, and there we try to balance revenue growth with the expenditure that is needed to grow that revenue as well. And hence, because of the focus on quality, we have our own strategy to play to show consistent performance on a quarter-on-quarter and on year-on-year basis, then I think the next question that you had, sorry. Yeah. I can see. Yeah, so the next question I'll take is the one on the synergies. And if I understand your question well, the synergies are obviously bigger in 2025. And the impact of the net synergies has already been factored into the EBITDA guidance that we've given of 8%-10%, has already been factored into the CapEx guidance as well.
If you just go back maybe five or six quarters at the CMD, we spoke about the CapEx guidance to be around THB 35 billion during this period. So the fact that we are guiding THB 28-30 billion means that the synergy is actually benefiting us, and the CapEx is lower. And of course, 8%-10% is a significant improvement in the EBITDA as well. So the net synergies are already factored into the numbers for 2025 as well. And because these numbers are better for 2024 and even better for 2025, we've had to upgrade the guidance that we've given for the EBITDA margin to service revenue as well, also improve the leverage. On the Chief Retail Officer and the sales revenue being double than us, as we've explained in the past, let's look at the net sales revenue. We should look at net of the subsidies.
The accounting that both operators have in the market is a bit different. So hence, we cannot look at the net product sales, which is revenue minus the cost, and compare between the two operators and say one is profitable, one is not. For one of our businesses, we record the subsidies, netting it off in the revenue line itself, which is not so much the case that is happening in the industry. That's why it looks like a different picture. What I can confirm, which I've done multiple times in the past, the subsidy levels that are there in the industry are pretty much same across in the market. So this is just the way of how the accounting is happening, and maybe, Khun Sharad, you have some thoughts on the chief retail officer.
Yeah. I can add that.
Just wait for the mic.
Yeah, so Khun Nakul, thanks.
What we are also looking at, the market dynamics is also a bit moving aside. We also see open channels are also playing a part as far as device and accessories are concerned. So we have also strengthened our devices and retail division by bringing in more capacity so that we can look at very differently the way market is shaping. In short, we will focus on device as well as associated accessories 2025 onwards to see that we are capturing the full ecosystem.
Thank you.
Okay. Then yes. Then maybe Khun Manat, we can take the question on the spectrum.
Okay. Thank you for the spectrum question. For the operator position, definitely we expect to have the better of the spectrum portfolio. In many countries, they have some countries they give for free.
They give for the lower price of continuity and continue for the best of the service and the development of the country. I have advocated to the NBTC many times and expect that our respected NBTC regulator would understand the situation of the country and also for the technology coming, technologies 5G, 6G, whatever together. To answer this, definitely we focus on our mid-band. But definitely, the reserve price after public hearing that we also attended in early February, we also gave some advocacy on this as well. If we have the right and reasonable reserve price, we definitely expect to acquire. We have planned all the scenarios of the spectrum portfolio and all the mid-band and also new mid-band, like 1500 as well under consideration on the whatever pending. But everything depends on the regulator issuance of the regulation next month.
So hopefully, we will get reasonable for country and continuing our service and enhance our technology for the Thai people.
T hank you, Khun Manat. Thank you, Khun Jin as well. We can pass on to Khun Wasu.
Hi. Hello. Good morning. And thank you for the call and congratulations on overachieving the full-year target. I have three questions. The first one is about the goodwill impairment. So my understanding is that most of the THB 5 billion goodwill impairment came from TrueVisions. The question is, could there be more impairment this year given that True is going to lose the EPL right? So that's number one. Number two, how do you plan to minimize the customer churns after the loss of EPL rights in May? And the final question is on the EBITDA margin guidance over the long term.
So basically, you are guiding for rising EBITDA margin into 2027. My question is, how do you plan to increase the margin into 2027 when the synergy program will already be completed in the third quarter of this year? That's all my questions.
Thank you, Khun Wasu. Sure. So let me first take the goodwill impairment and the margin-related question from Khun Nakul, then we move on to Khun Sharad for the EPL loss. Okay, Khun Nakul?
Yep. All right. Thank you so much for the question, Khun Wasu, and always good to see you. The goodwill impairment, as you rightly mentioned, is primarily on account of the TV business. But this is on account of the fact that the linear TV or the linear part of the TV business has not performed as well as we had expected previously.
You've seen from the numbers as well, the linear TV continues to go down in terms of subscribers and in terms of revenue, and that's why on a conservative basis, we've factored in what can potentially happen in the future and recorded the goodwill in this TV. We do not expect anything to come negative on the loss of EPL. As we've mentioned many, many times in the past, EPL is a net negative for us. Even the direct revenues, direct and direct revenues on EPL, minus the direct cost that we are still paying for EPL is a net negative, so losing EPL is not going to increase the impairment on the goodwill or increase the recoverable value of the assets, so that's not going to happen. The second one on the EBITDA margin for 2027, it's a good question. How do we plan to increase?
We have demonstrated a 5.1% increase in EBITDA margin over the last one year. And we showed you where this increase is coming from. It's coming from more or less an equal contribution on the top line as well as on the synergies. If you remember, 7% came from gross margin of all the businesses, and another 7.5%-8% is coming on account of the synergies. So while the synergies or bulk of the synergy program is going to be expected to end by the end of 2025, full-year impact of this only comes in 2026. So still, there is an improvement that continues to happen in terms of the EBITDA margin. Plus, at the same time, because of our financial discipline, we don't stop on the synergy projects alone. We look at all possible ways where we can improve the OpEx by better cost management.
That's why we do not separate synergies and operational excellence at all. We just talk about the whole concerted effort that we have on the better OpEx management for us. As a consequence, there is an improvement that happens. One important factor that I need to also explain is the benefit of these accounting adjustments. While 2025 accounting adjustments have a five-month impact from August till December, 2026 will be a full-year impact of these accounting benefits, which further increases the EBITDA margin. That's why 2027, with a combination of all of these factors, which is these accounting adjustments, which is a full-year impact that we will get on the synergies that will continue to realize in 2025, even though they are tapering off as we speak, will actually result in the EBITDA margin going to 67%. I hope this answers your question.
Then, on the second one, on how do we plan to minimize customer churn from the loss of EPL, maybe Khun Sharad?
Yeah, sure. Thank you.
Just wait for the mic.
Yeah. In addition to what Khun Nakul talked about, let me remind ourselves that True has a portfolio of lifestyle services like streaming, entertainment, gaming, insurance, and then we sell through TrueID as well as True Now, TVS Now, OTT. EPL is one such service in addition to our other premium content so we continue EPL till such time we have expiry, and as you believe that we have been mentioning that we want to continue our profitable growth journey, and we will see how the partnership evolves later on.
At the same time, we are quite confident that we will continue our select portfolio of relevant content to attract our customers while continuing to offer EPL with an attractive package till May. Thank you.
Thank you, Khun Sharad, and thank you, Khun Wasu. We can move on to Khun Supachai next. Can you turn on the mic, please?
Hello. Thank you. I have a couple of questions. First, for Khun Manat and Khun Sharad. I noticed that True has MOU with the LEO satellite in China. I would like to know the scope of the MOU and what do you plan with partnership with the LEO satellite and how would this affect your mobile business? That's my first question. Can I go one by one? Okay.
We can finish all the questions.
Okay. Hello.
It's okay.
The second question is on Gulf and Intouch will become a new core. It's quite a thing in Thai market. A very big new core. And I think they try to go beyond mobile operator for AIS. And what would this impact your long-term strategy? Do you need to adapt something or do you see some change in the market according to this? That's my second question. My third question to Khun Nakul is a very easy one. Do you have a component on net debt to equity? And at which level do you see the equity imbalance is uncomfortable? The last one for Khun Nakul is your EBITDA guidance. Would this include the impact on the accounting adjustment? Thank you very much.
Thank you, Khun Supachai. Maybe Khun Manat.
Okay. Thank you for the question about the technology transformation and also our roadmap on technology.
I have to say that we talked to many of the LEO operators such as the OneWeb, such as Project Kuiper, Starlink, also the GalaxySpace. Let me explain a little bit on this one. For the LEO business, there are three layers of the business. First is the service provider. I mean, first is the wholesale, the retailer and wholesaler for the business. Another one is the manufacturer of the satellite. So we talked to everyone. And when we talked to GalaxySpace, we explored the opportunity together how this can have the opportunity of the LEO in the mobile. So we explored in the wholesale and retail as a seller for the LEO. But why we have to do that is we talked to LEO right now.
In the roadmap of the 5G in the future, in five years, six years' time, the telecom of the mobile will change but not totally change. But we have the LEO as the combination of that. For more accessibility, let's say in the forest, in the mountain, in the ocean, but not necessarily to have much bandwidth, also connecting to the IoT. So when we discuss, we open the discussion for every partnership, for every provider. But for the GalaxySpace, we explored the opportunity of the reseller, and hopefully, the GalaxySpace has a better deal or has a better opportunity in depth on the development together. That's our scope, but we don't have any commitment at the moment on the CapEx. I don't have any commitment on the binding anything. We MOU for opening each other to explore as a first step of the partnership.
Okay.
Okay.
Then maybe Khun Sharad, do you want to take the Gulf Intouch?
Yeah. I think that's a very interesting question. I'll answer in two or three parts. First part is that we are on track towards strategy on both transformation as well as monetization, as has been highlighted. So that is the first thing which is very important since the time we merged, that we are on track. Second, we do understand that there are a lot of opportunities in the market. When Khun Manat talked about this Galaxy or the LEO satellite, which is really going forward, and we are also participating in terms of trials, as you mentioned about the MOU. Third thing I would like to talk about is cloud, AI, and the data center, which are also emerging quite well.
If you see, there is quite a good traction on the enterprise side in this area. So what True Corporation is doing is that we are also working on this cloud business solution. We, of course, do have a partner as TrueIDc, and we have aimed to double the cloud revenue in the next three years from the base we have right now. Of course, we require very light investment because our model is very different. Second, I think it's worthwhile to mention, maybe you're touching upon this kind of newer opportunities, but I would like to take this opportunity to also inform that we have also taken quite a lead in AI and GenAI side. How do we simplify, process, and automate them in the year 2025, going up to 2027?
Just to mention, we have already done the key priorities on AI, which is customer experience, chatbot, CBM, network-related areas. They will be touched upon in 2025 with quite mature use cases, more than 10. And then we will continue to simplify this process over these automation journeys. Finally, on data center and partnership, I also would like to mention that our partner, TrueIDc, has also signed with Siam AI to access NVIDIA chipset for enhancing our capabilities through AI training and GPU as a service. So we have a full eye on the overall ecosystem and where the market is going, and we will continue to adopt in addition to our transformation journey, which is definitely very, very important for us, as you will agree. Thank you, Kath.
Thank you, Khun Sharad. Then maybe we can move on to the governance and EBITDA questions, Khun Nakul. Yeah.
Sure. Am I on?
Yes. Yes.
Yeah. Thank you for the nice questions, easy questions, as you said, Khun Supachai. So I'll give very short answers also. Whether there is any comment on net debt to equity, the answer is no. And we are not uncomfortable with the equity levels in the company, especially when we are saying that we are going to be profitable on a reported basis in 2025. If you just look at the normalized profit that we have, it's roughly 3.5 billion now. You can just try to analyze this number. It reaches 14.5 for the full year. Of course, as the network modernization is behind us, the write-off will be finished, and we'll be profitable on a reported basis. So there is no new math on this. It's quite easy. So there is no discomfort at all. EBITDA guidance includes the impact of accounting changes?
Yes, of course. The reason why we wanted to mention these two items here in the call today is for everybody to transparently know that this is what is going to happen in August of 2025. There was no need for us to wait till August and say that this is how it has changed. We've just made it very, very clear that this also has a benefit in terms of the EBITDA for us. Impact is for everybody to see. In fact, if you look at our MDA, we also have one slide as an appendix, which, or if you look at our presentation, there is also one slide which mentions the line items in the P&L and balance sheet which will be impacted by this adjustment for you to do your calculations as well. So in short, this is also considered in the guidance. Thank you, Kath.
Thank you, Khun Supachai. Thank you, Khun Nakul. Then we move on to Khun Natapol.
Hello. Okay. Thank you very much, Natapol from Thanachart Securities. I think four questions. Let's start with, I think, the housekeeping one on your CapEx and net debt equity guidance. You mentioned about spectrum things. Just to make sure I get it right for you, factor in kind of whatever spectrum you plan to get at resale price with the terms of 10-year installment. Is that correct? But one thing we just got: 10-year installment is based on what already we announced. It's not that payment term, right? Yes. So, okay. But basically, more to me like only the outside from here rather than the positive both on the spectrum price and the payment term. Second question, maybe follow up on the enterprise revenue. You mentioned in this presentation that you have double-digit revenue growth.
Correct me if I'm wrong. Is it in that portion of the online revenue that in some corporate portion, or where is that you are focusing on? And with that, so I think since it is in online, right, in the online segment, I think most of the service is on the connectivity or internet connectivity, something like that. And Khun Sharad mentioned about cloud and maybe data center things. But I think we also have duplication with TrueIDc, right? So how far downstream as True Corporation or True would like to go down? Data center, cloud services, system integration as part of your business to grow this kind of corporate service revenue? My third question is on Synergy. My calculation on your EBITDA guidance is more like 10% growth, let's say. That would be THB 10 billion.
But you already have for the half-year impact of that NT things, so around THB 5-6 billion. Sorry, THB 4 billion saving this year. And revenue growth, you target maybe THB 3 to THB 5 billion. So that left me with only THB 1 to THB 3 billion of synergy saving. And that compared with THB 6 billion in 2024 that you did calculate in the fourth quarter. So how is that start to decline instead of this should be the peak year of the synergy benefit you would get? And lastly, maybe the big question, I think you mentioned 2%-3% revenue growth, but I think mostly it should come out, right, rather than the volume. So what actually is your strategy in output improvement?
So I know you try to improve ARPU, try to add service, but for me, can you add some color or some survey evidence of what package or what service you try to add? Thank you.
Okay. I can do. We can take the guidance one.
Yeah. I can take all three and maybe Khun Sharad can join later on.
Sure. Sure. Can you turn on the mic for Khun Nakul?
Can you just repeat the last question, Kath? I could not note that.
I mean, your strategy on ARPU improvement. So how actually your plan to do it? Sure. Yeah.
Okay. Maybe let me take the CapEx and the net debt to EBITDA first. Net debt to equity, we don't talk about. We always talk about net debt to EBITDA. Spectrum price is considered at the reserve price and payments over 10 years.
Yes, they are talking about payments over five years, but our position externally also, as I think Khun Manat also mentioned, is that the price is high and payment terms are not appropriate. I mean, they should be following the similar trends that we had in the past. For the purposes of our model that we have been following for the last many, many quarters and years, we've made it very consistent that this is what our stated position is. And should there be a change in that, then obviously our models will be adjusted accordingly. But I mean, five versus 10, you can do the math. If the price remains at what it is, then the delta can easily be calculated, Nakul. On the enterprise, I will pass on to Khun Sharad also, but let me first answer where is this enterprise revenue booked.
I think that's what your question is. So while we do not separate enterprise as a separate section, which is more or less consistent with how industry also reports it, the enterprise revenue comes in different items. There is a mobile element of enterprise revenue. There is an online or connectivity element of the online revenue. Some B2B revenue is coming in TV business as well because that's also there. And the other elements also includes this enterprise. I think what Khun Sharad was trying to say is that the connectivity or the beyond connectivity part of enterprise, which is all the solution sales, all what we're doing in IoT, 5G, private network, and all the solutions that we are selling in the market, that is expected to double over a three-year period. And we are seeing some green shoots on how that is expected to happen in the future.
On the synergies, maybe I can help with you after this call with the math, but my broad answer is as follows. Firstly, the benefit of those accounting adjustments is not for half a year. It's for five months. So that will change your number a little bit. Second is revenue improvement of 3-5 that you calculated. Revenue improvement should be looked at net of the costs. For sure, when you increase the revenue, there is a direct cost required to earn that revenue. So you can't add just 3-5 straight away into the EBITDA. Once you do these adjustments, then the synergy number that you are calculating is going to be higher than what it is and probably is going to answer your question, Nakul. Then on the OpEx, sorry, on the output improvement, yes.
On the mobile side, bulk of the growth that is expected in 2025 is going to come from output improvement. I'll give you one good example here. If you look at a prepaid business, I mean, prepaid output improved 11% on a year-on-year basis in Q4. If I do not grow my prepaid output at all, which is impossible, prepaid output will continue to grow on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Let me make it very clear. If I do not grow my prepaid output from Q4 numbers, still compared 2025 versus 2024, we are already sitting at a 5.7% growth on prepaid. Not so much on the postpaid because postpaid has been more or less flat in the last two quarters for the industry as well.
So that's how we are saying that the improvement in the mobile service revenue or in the revenue guidance on the mobile side is primarily going to come on account of higher output. There is going to be some incremental benefit from higher tourists as well. But as you've already seen, 2024 has witnessed a phenomenal growth in the tourists. There is going to be some more that can happen in 2025 as well. And on the enterprise, if I remember, the second part of your question was on the data centers and cloud, how far will you go downstream? I mean, maybe Khun Sharad or.
Yeah, sure. So thank you, Khun Nakul. First one, just to add on to what you have been talking about on this new generation solutions, which we have been doing quite well.
This is a part of our strategy where we want to grow beyond connectivity to 2X over three years. This includes 5G, private networks, SD-WAN, SASE, and also SaaS, and especially for SME segment. Second, we did touch about the cloud. Our partnership is through IDC. What we are working on, of course, one thing is Siam AI, but the second part is, which is quite relevant for our enterprise customers, is serving them with a hybrid cloud, multi-cloud. We are working on a complete solution involving whether it is SaaS, cloud, or co-location, all three together, and then work along with our beyond connectivity solution as an overall strategy for enterprise so that customers see some traction, and then we see the growth there as highlighted already for cloud, which is doubling in three years, Kath. Thank you.
Thank you, Khun Sharad.
Okay. We take Khun Kittisorn's question last, then we will move on to the people online. They've been waiting for some time.
Okay. Thank you for the opportunity. This is Kittisorn from InnovestX. I have three questions. The first one is about the net synergy value. I remember at the Capital Market Day, you mentioned about THB 250 billion net synergy. My question is, is this number still valid, or you are now seeing a higher number than this? That's my first question. My second question is about the trend of the one-time expense related to the network modernization. Since you already completed like 77% of your target, should we expect this number to decline in the first quarter, 2025? This is my second question. And my third question is about the one-time expense as well.
Apart from the network modernization expense, should we expect any one-time expense to be booked in the first quarter 25? Thank you.
Thank you, Khun Kittisorn. Khun Nakul, you take also here. Yes.
Thank you so much for your questions, Kath. And thanks for patiently waiting. I know you've been raising your hand for quite some time. Net synergy value, THB 250 billion, is what we showed in CMD. For sure, we are going to exceed that, Kath. And the simple reason is there are actually many reasons. Number one is that this is net present value of the future cash flows or future benefits, right? If we have accelerated the synergies, the NPV is going to be higher. That's one. Second is, on procurement, we have delivered higher than what we had expected. On network modernization from 17,000 sites, we are now going to 18,000 sites. So it's 1,000 higher.
And last but not the least, on the organization modernization also, we are doing better than what we had expected. So in general, the THB 250 billion number is higher than what we had planned. And it is this reason why our guidance on EBITDA service revenue, our net leverage is all improving because the synergy is higher. Of course, we're not giving a new value of THB 250 billion because we believe the level of details that we had shown in the past created more confusion than what we had expected. To be very transparent with you, that's why we are going on giving absolute guidance in terms of the growth on the EBITDA and the margins going forward. The trend on the one-time expense, firstly on the network side, right? I mean, we have 5,000 more sites to dismantle in 2025.
We've reiterated in the past that the write-off per tower is going to be around 1.2 billion range. 1.2 million, sorry. 1.2 million per tower. So you can do the math. This is the total magnitude of amount, plus minus a few here and there because every site has different types of assets and the amount of write-off can vary. But this is the broad magnitude that we're looking for. Whether it's going to decline in Q1 versus Q4 is a bit difficult to say because it depends on the number of sites we dismantle. What we believe is that by Q3, this will be behind us. We will try to do it even faster if it's possible. But that's what it is. So the number of sites decides the amount of write-off that we need to record.
Actually, you should be urging us to do as much as possible in the first half so that the whole of the second half is going to be all normalized and reported levels of profit. Apart from network modernization, do we expect more? No. I mean, right now, whatever we felt needed to be recorded in terms of impairment of goodwill, impairment of assets is all we have booked. I can answer it a little bit more detail. Goodwill today. If you look at the books, the goodwill remaining in the books is primarily coming on account of amalgamation, which is a mobile business, and if I were to impair mobile business, that means I'm not doing well at all, which is not correct, right?
So I think majority of what we were supposed to book in terms of these impairments, which we are aware of, has already been booked in 2024.
Thank you, Khun Nakul, and thank you, Khun Kittisorn. I'm conscious of time. We have only three minutes left now. We will move on to the Zoom questions. We start with Piyush first. Hi, Piyush. Can we unmute Piyush? Sorry, it seems Piyush has dropped off the call. Maybe we move on to Khun. Oh, you're here. Okay.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I was just trying to unmute. Thanks a lot. And congratulations to the management team for the excellent results and raising the guidance. One question or two parts to the question. You are expecting the leverage to come down to below four times net debt to EBITDA by end of 2025.
How should we think about dividends in 2026 and beyond? And what is the comfortable level of leverage? Because you are expecting it to further go less than 3.2 by 2027. So you're looking to continuously deleveraging, or there is a threshold beyond which you will be comfortable to do more dividend payouts?
Is that all your questions, Piyush?
Yeah, yeah.
Okay. Then, Khun Nakul? Good.
I'll take this. Thanks for your question, Piyush. And I'm happy that you had only one because it means the rest of your questions have already been answered so far. What we have considered as an assumption on the dividend is more than 50% of the consolidated net profit has been considered in each of the years for the purpose of dividend calculation and also the leverage. Now, please don't ask me to break down whether it is 50, 60, 70, whatever.
We are saying that more than 50% is already considered for the purposes of dividend. And as we maintained previously, we would like to strike a balance between the debt and the equity side. We want to reward the equity shareholders who've been with us over the last one and a half years, phenomenal journey that we had. And at the same time, we are conscious of the high levels of debt in the company as well. So the guidance that we have given on the leverage, which is going down to less than 3.2 in 2027, is the level that we are comfortable with. And that's how it is coming in terms of the numbers for you, Nakul.
Thank you.
Thank you, Piyush. No analyst call is complete without Khun Kittisorn. Would you please unmute and turn on his video? Khun Kittisorn?
Yes. Thank you. Thanks for the opportunity.
I have about three questions. Just due to limited time, I just want to ask only one. I tried to figure out the EBITDA growth for this year. Then you got about 8%-10%. But if I'm trying to subtract the expected changes, I have got the number at about only 5%. Could you please confirm me? Am I right on that?
Is that all your question, Khun Kittisorn?
Okay. If I have more time, may I have two more questions? Another one is about the TrueVision strategy because you made quite a heavy write-off last year. So, are you looking to scale down this business significantly in the future versus basically the strategy of this one. And my last question is about the spectrum options.
seems to me you are sending a signal to the market trying to have the friendly option. It seems not working, especially after Advanced management recently showed intention to regain the leadership in mobile spectrum holdings. What would be a possible implication on your mid- to long-term target if the auction turned more intense than your plan? That's all for me. Thank you.
Thank you, Khun Kittisorn. We cannot accept any further questions. I'm really sorry, everyone. Let's move on to Khun Nakul first, then we'll move on to Khun Sharad for TVS.
Yep. Thank you so much, Khun Kittisorn. On the EBITDA growth, 8%-10%, I think you probably need to redo the numbers a little bit, Nakul. This is not a six-month impact of the accounting changes. It is a five-month impact. So the benefit of these accounting adjustments would be less than 4%.
And if it is less than 4%, then we are talking about 4-6% growth in EBITDA to come from revenue growth, the synergies, and all the work that's there. On the spectrum option, maybe I can take that. I think Khun Manat has explained this very well in one of the earlier questions that was raised in the room here. I don't want to comment on whether the signal is well working or not. We've reiterated in the past that we would like to renew the spectrum that is expiring at a reasonable price. If that were not to happen, there are alternatives available for us that we have already talked about, and we'll execute on that strategy.
I will not comment any further on this because this is very speculative, and there is a lot of game theory that can happen, and there are possible scenarios in the spectrum option, and we are very well ready to participate in that. On the TrueVisions strategy on scaling down, for sure not, but maybe Khun Sharad can talk about what is our strategy on TrueVisions quickly,
Nakul. Thank you. Yeah, sure. What we are doing here is that we continue to provide a select portfolio of relevant content to attract customers. At the same time, please remind ourselves that Khun Manat mentioned in his presentation about the launch of our new home Gigatex router, which is high-speed. There is also connectivity of dongle. And what we are doing is that we also introduced a new TrueID box, which is AI-enabled.
So what we would like to offer to customers is a complete integrated solution. So it's not only dependent on the overall TVS only. Second, we have to mention that while we understand linear is going down, at the same time, we are refining our online market strategy in terms of going a bit high on the OTT part of TVS now, which we see initial signs of growth, but of course, it's some time to go. So we have an overall integrated plan to provide our customers an end-to-end solution, both postpaid as well as broadband, Nakul. Thank you.
Thank you, Khun Sharad. Unfortunately, we are already over time, so we need to end this call. Thank you, everyone, for joining, especially those of you in the room with us. I know there are a lot of questions unanswered. Please get in touch with me.
We'll get back to you within today. Thank you so much, and take care. Have a great weekend.