Thai Union Group PCL (BKK:TU)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2021

Nov 8, 2021

Rujirada Kongros
IR Manager, Thai Union Group PCL

Good day, management, investors, and all participants online. Welcome you all to virtual earnings call for Thai Union Group Q3 of 2021 results announcement. Today, our key speakers are Mr. Ludovic Garnier, Thai Union Group CFO.

Ludovic Garnier
CFO, Thai Union Group PCL

Hello. Good afternoon, good evening, everyone.

Rujirada Kongros
IR Manager, Thai Union Group PCL

Ms. Narisa Phahulrat, Group Accounting and Controlling.

Narisa Phahulrat
Executive of Group Accounting and Controlling, Thai Union Group PCL

Hello, everyone, and good evening from Bangkok, Thailand.

Rujirada Kongros
IR Manager, Thai Union Group PCL

Ms. Kalvalee Thongsomaung, Head of Investor Relations.

Kalvalee Thongsomaung
Head of Investor Relations, Thai Union Group PCL

Hello, everyone.

Rujirada Kongros
IR Manager, Thai Union Group PCL

My name is Rujirada Kongros from the Investor Relations team, and I will be your emcee today. This event will be approximately one hour, with the presentation of 45 minutes, followed by 15 minutes for Q&A. Please do note that this earnings call session will be conducted in English. For any participants who have any inquiry, please feel free to submit your question in the chat box. We will raise them during the Q&A session post the presentation. Just a gentle reminder, please mute your microphone during the presentation. Now, please allow me to invite Mr. Ludovic Garnier, Thai Union Group CFO, to start the briefing. Thank you very much.

Ludovic Garnier
CFO, Thai Union Group PCL

Hi. Good evening, everyone. Again, very happy to be with you tonight. We have positive developments to share this quarter. We have a strong Q3. I think it's quite aligned with Q1 and Q2 already. Let me move into the details. Shall we move to the first Slide, please. Next one. Here you can see our key performance indicators. We believe we have a strong Q3. Top line is interesting. Gross profit is increasing. OP and net profit overall are declining a bit, yet we are very satisfied with the results reported this quarter. If you do remember, just take a step back, one year ago, Q3 2020, we achieved a record-high quarter in Q3 2020.

If you do remember, in Q3 2020, we delivered a 9% top line growth, high gross profit margin, record high OP and net profit exceeding THB 2 billion. Okay? We are very pleased to release in Q3 2021 a growth in top line and gross profit versus this record high Q3 2020. Sales stood at THB 35.5 billion, growing by 2.2%. That was in line with our expectation. As in Q1 and Q2, performance varied significantly by category. You can see the Frozen business has been showing strong growth , by 11%. We have very strong rebound in the food service business again. The PetCare, Value-added, and others are also showing strong growth , by 11.4%. The Ambient sales are normalizing by 8%.

Here we have a very similar situation compared to the one we had in Q1 and in Q2. Gross profit, we stand at THB 6.4 billion. In terms of gross profit margin, we are at 18%, slightly reducing versus Q3 2020, where we are at 18%. You will see overall the Frozen seafood margins are really recovering and in fact are almost record high in Q3 2021. The PetCare and value-added margins are dropping a bit. I will explain that. We faced temporary factory closures in Q3 2021, so we have some extra costs coming from this one impacting negatively our gross profit margin. Then the ambient margins are still quite healthy and stable. OP, we are just below THB 1.9 billion. OP margin at 5.3%.

You will see this is one of our key highlights for tonight. We have an increase of our SG&A, and we have record high SG&A at 12.7%. SG&A to sales ratio, We experienced significantly higher logistics costs. If you do remember, we already mentioned this one in Q1 and in Q2. In Q3, where we disclosed the amount we estimate on this one, but indeed we are facing some very high logistics costs and very high SG&A. Because of this one, our OP overall is declining a bit compared to last year. Below the OP, I believe we have some good news overall. It's almost on track versus last year. We have some strong FX gain, but we have some negative impact coming from the share of loss.

I will again get back to this one. Overall, results declined slightly year-on-year, by 5.8% compared to the record high THB 2 billion we had last year. Overall, management’s view is we are very pleased with this Q3 performance, and I think it's a good track and in line also with our Q1 and Q2 performance. Moving on to the nine-month picture. Of course, you know H1 was really great for us. We delivered record high H1. You can see the nine-month picture is very interesting. From the right to the left, you can see total sales are increasing by 3.6%, gross profit by 7.5%, OP by 6.7%, EBITDA almost by 15%, and net profit by 27%.

Just want to highlight that now after 9 months, we have been delivering a net profit of THB 6.1 billion, almost THB 6.1 billion. Just to remind you that last year we did achieve our record high net profit over 12 months at THB 6.2 billion. Okay. Already here for 9 months, we have nearly reached the 12 months record high level net income of last year. Again, very strong performance. One watch out maybe to mention to you, which is on the net debt to equity. the debt-to-equity ratio increased from 0.94 to 1.08. We will explain and elaborate on this one. This is maybe the only watch out that we have in terms of financials for this quarter. Next one, we will now focus on our supply chain.

in Q3 we have been facing some challenges in our supply chain. You can see here on the right, all the factories which have been impacted by the COVID-19 in Q3. We decided to close i-Tail. So i-Tail, remember, this is a new name for Songkla Canning. We decided to close for two weeks, the factory. The production has been ramping up in Q3, and now it's back to normal in September. However, we had some hit in our PetCare business in Q3, and you will see this one in the gross profit margin. The next one is TUS. Again, TUS, we decided to close the factory for ten days. It was reopened mid-December. The production again here is ramping back. The last one is a smaller factory we had in Vietnam, YCC.

The whole region, all the factories were closed by decision of the governments. We reopened the factory at the end of September. Okay? In terms of size and exposure for us, the first one is the biggest exposure for us. However, we're able to remove and reallocate some of the volumes to our other factories. The second one is in the frozen business, and the third one is in the ambient and also frozen business. You can see here also on the left, the progress regarding our vaccination campaign. Overall, we are quite successful. We did some good progress in Europe. In the U.S., it's a bit slower. In Thailand, however, there were some progress over the last weeks and months. Overall, we believe we have been managing quite well the COVID-19 situation.

Of course, you are fully aware that this has triggered a situation of labor shortage in some of our factories, especially in Thailand. Despite all of these issues, we have been facing with some issues in Q3, we are able to deliver some strong numbers in Q3. Next is an update regarding some investments we have been announcing over the last weeks. The first one on the left is 10% acquisition we announced at the end of September on a company called R&B Food Supply in Thailand. This is a listed company. The value of the acquisition is roughly THB 3 billion. Thai Union will have a board seat on this one, so we will be able to record this one as an associate company.

Starting from Q4, we will be able to record 10% share profit coming from this company in our P&L. We believe we will have some very interesting synergies. This is a company which is focusing on the food ingredient, very successful company. They have also some nice opportunities in the CBD and in the hemp market. You can see here, we believe we can develop a lot of synergies with them. Okay. We have been working with this company already since many years. We have been sourcing some ingredients from this company, but we believe we can do more with them. On the right, you can see this is a joint venture we just announced with Starflex. We said we will set up a new company. We have our subsidiary called Thai Union Graphic.

We just set up a new holding company, 50/50, but in terms of common shares, Starflex will have the majority of the votes. The goal of the new joint venture will be to focus on the flexible packaging. We have a very clear roadmap and a lot of sustainability targets in terms of packaging, and we believe this partnership will help us to focus and to achieve our sustainability target related to the packaging. Next one, I'm sure you heard about this one. This is TFM listing. We just list this one at the end of October. It was a successful listing. We are very happy about this one. We have been talking over the last two years, so very happy to see the end of this process. On this one, you all know TFM, I hope.

It's our feed business in Thailand. We are operating in Thailand, but we have also now some factories in Indonesia and also in Pakistan. We have one partner called Avanti in India, Avanti Feeds on this one. We were owning before the IPO 67% of the shares. After the IPO, we still own the majority, so it doesn't change anything in our numbers. We still record all the sales until the OP of this company. We own 51%, as we were owning already a few years ago. The only change would be an increase in the future of the allocation to the non-controlling interest. That will be the only change. There is no impact in Q3 on this one. You can see here we did write the accounting impact we expect to have for Q4.

First of all, we record again on the sale of the investments. We record this one through equity, not through the P&L, so we have something like THB 200 million gain coming from the sales of the shares we are owning. Plus, we'll be able to record almost THB 1.5 billion cash inflow coming from the IPO proceeds. Very happy again about this one. This is the end of a quite long process. Moving to the Q3 key takeaways.

Again, we told you we were very happy with the top line and the gross profit margin, and then we are a bit penalized by the SG&A, the high operating costs, and the high freight costs that we have to face with in Q3, and we have also some lower share profit. Just get back to the top line. Top line growing by 2.2%. Again, the key categories are frozen and pet care and value added while the ambient is normalizing. We are also helped by the FX in Q3. In Q3, the Thai baht has been depreciating a lot versus USD, GBP and euro compared to Q3 2020. If you exclude this FX impact, we are declining by 1.2%. It's a fact we are just declining excluding the FX.

However, overall, we believe it's still a very strong performance. Gross profit margin. Emmy will elaborate a bit further on this one, but overall, very strong in all the categories. We had a bit of a hiccup in the PetCare and value-added, explained by the closure of one factory. SG&A have been increasing again, the logistics costs, and we have some additional expenses due to COVID-19 in Q3, and that's why our OP stand at 1.9%, decreasing by 5.7% year-on-year. Share profit, we have a mixed picture here. First of all, Red Lobster is almost in line with last year. We have a share of loss of THB 63 million, very close from last year, THB 54 million. And then we have also some declining contribution coming from Avanti Feeds and Avanti Frozen Foods.

Overall, our share profit is declining compared to last year. I will elaborate further on the Red Lobster. Overall, bottom line, we believe our net profit is very healthy. At 1.9%, we have a decline compared to last year by 5.8%. We believe the explanation are really coming from the higher freight costs, the workforce capacity issues and also some of our factory closure in Q3. Again, very pleased and very happy about this performance overall. If you look at the long-term view over the last 4 years, I think we have a very good track record.

We have been delivering some top line growth over the last 7 quarters in a row, and we have a gross profit margin, which is very stable around 18%+ over the last 6 quarters. Okay. This is a very strong performance. Of course, you can see the impact on the net profit. Net profit has been very high since the beginning of the year, and we are still enjoying this one. Next Slide. Of course, one of the consequences we are benefiting from a higher rating from the credit agency. You can see on the right, if I start with the right, it is the first time we are asking for the Japan Credit Rating Agency to provide us with a rating. They provided us with an A- with a stable outlook in August. We are very happy with this one.

Maybe you don't know, but A minus is also the rating for the sovereign rating for Thailand. This is very high and we believe this is a very strong recognition about all the efforts of Thai Union over the last weeks and months on this one. We have been provided also with the TRIS Rating. Again, we are A plus, no change compared to the rating before. However, there is a revision on the outlook to positive. This is good. We believe again this is strengthening the financial profile that we had, that we have. We have some improvements in our leverage ratio and our profit margin, as you could see in the previous chart, has been improving a lot over the last quarters. Again, very happy about these ratings overall.

Next Slide is our journey to sustainable finance. We have been clearly a leader on this journey. You can see starting from 2020, all our net debt was traditional. Then 2022, we moved to 50% of our net debt coming from sustainable finance. The goal is to move to 75% in 2025, okay? You can see just below what we have been doing in Q1 and also in Q2, the THB 12 billion SLL sustainability-linked loan we have been issuing in Thailand and in Japan was very successful. Then in July, the SLB sustainability-linked bond in Thailand, it was lots of success. I don't go back to this one because we already elaborated on this one in Q1 and Q2.

However, you can see on the right we will announce very soon that we issue THB 6 billion SLB in Thailand. Again, a lot of interest from the finance community, a lot of oversubscription. You can see here we have a mix of 5 and 10 years maturity. And you can see the interest rates are between 2.27%-3.36%. So very attractive financial interest for us, and we believe this is good. We are also working on the last wave, which will be SLL in Japan and which should happen before the end of the year. Overall, you can see a lot of progress, which we've been doing over Q3 and in 2021. I think it's clearly a step change for Thai Union.

Next one, just to show you also the way we do manage our portfolio. Okay. Two announcements on this one. The first one on the left, we have been selling our joint ventures in Middle East. We have two different businesses. We have been selling them back to our joint venture partner. Maybe since September 2015, we had set up two joint ventures in the Middle East, together with another large food company, local one. However, the results from the joint venture were not aligned with our expectation. Since few years now, we are quite active, and we try to fix our issues, and we took the decision to remove and to sell these two businesses to them.

In terms of financial and accounting impact, it's quite there is almost nothing. Interest rate is very small, so we don't need to mention this one. The other one is related to Europe on the right, and maybe you have seen the press release on this one. Our subsidiary, Thai Union Europe, announced on the first day of October that we will close a factory that we have in the chilled business, MerAlliance, called MerAlliance Poland. We have been facing with a lot of difficulties with this factory over the last two years. Basically, we have some issue, we don't have enough volumes for this factory. This is why we took the decision that we will close or sell this business. We are having different discussions with local players on this one. The announcements happened in October, so there is no impact in our Q2.

In our Q3 numbers. Right now we are having discussions with different players to see what do we do. Just for you to keep in mind, the key factory of our chilled business is located in France. There is no impact from this one, so overall the impact in our numbers will be pretty small. Here we are talking of quite a small factory. Next one. We just wanted to give you some heads-up and some watch-out regarding some issues we are facing. I'm sure it will not be new for you. A lot of businesses are impacted by these kind of challenges over these quarters and this month. You can see on the left here, you have the rising freight costs, and we are also facing the situation of container shortage and fuel cost issues. It's not new.

We had already the same situation happening in Q1 and in Q2. I told you that I was expecting some improvement to happen in Q3 and in Q4, and we didn't see the improvement. In fact, we are seeing a deterioration, and the impact has been increasing further in Q3 compared to Q1 and Q2. If you do remember, we told you in Q1 and Q2, roughly the same impact by THB 200 million each quarter. Q3, you can see the impact, the price impact of the freight cost increase. We estimate this one at THB 468 million, okay? It's increasing a lot compared to Q1 and Q2. Few things on this one, few consideration. First of all, until now it was mostly an issue for Thailand and the U.S. Now Europe is also involved on this one.

You can see an increase of this cost because our frozen business from Asia to the U.S. or to Europe has been increasing. Our exposure has been increasing. You can see here the team has just provided with two chart. The first one on the left, this is the cost of a container from Thailand to the U.S. You can see the increase since Q2, Q1 2020, increasing a lot and times three or four. Then also the transit time between Thailand to the U.S. has been increasing a lot between 2019 and 2021. This is really the first issue, and we are fully impacted by this one in our Q3 numbers. On the right, you can see the inflation. There were many news on this one in the press release.

We are facing with strong increase of the cost of the packaging and the oils, sunflower oil, oils and also some others. We are facing with some increase in our costs, okay? Right now we don't see a lot of impact from this one in 2021. However, it's a watch-out for us, not only for us, but for the whole industry. We do expect to have some increase in 2022. What does it mean? It means we have to negotiate some price increase with our customers, and there may be some impact in our next year profitability. It's not specific to Thai Union, of course. The whole industry is talking about this one, and I'm sure you have seen all the other food big players already communicating on this one.

Of course, our policy is we try to share the cost with all our partners, all our suppliers. Again, the impact, despite all these challenges, and there are some real challenges in Q3, we are able to deliver a very solid performance. Very happy about this one. Next one, I will hand over to Emmy to go through the fish price.

Narisa Phahulrat
Executive of Group Accounting and Controlling, Thai Union Group PCL

Thank you, Ludo. For tuna prices overall increased versus prior quarter and declined versus last year. $1,400 USD per ton in the Q3 was aligned with our expectation. The price in October increased to $1,500 USD per ton, stable and within our manageable range. Next, please. Sales, including FX, revenue grew 2% in Q3 2021 versus last year, mostly from our diversified products. The Frozen continuing strong performance in U.S. and Asia markets started to improve in the Q3. PetCare and value-added steady growing in 7 consecutive quarters. Ambient is normalized after last year pantry stock-up during COVID pandemic. For 9 months 2021, top line grew 4% and 10% improved when you compare to pre-COVID in 2019.

We take a deep dive for revenue component in the next Slide, please. Ambient segment dropped primarily from lower demand in canned products. The peak demand last year did not repeat this year, and all regions are back to normalized as anticipated. This reflected 8% decline in sales and 13% volume drop. Frozen and chilled grow in most categories except for salmon. Total segment increased in value 11% and volume 8%. Food service and culinary channel are continuing recovery with strong momentum in sales. Our pricing has been firm with the effect of imbalance in demand and supply, despite the dampening effect of COVID-19. Revenue quality in PetCare and value-added have been improved, as shown by 9% sales increase in PetCare and 8% increase in value-added, whereas combined volume dropped 10%.

This was driven by favorable mix and growth in the U.S. market. FX impact was favorable in this quarter, both USD and euro. If you compare to pre-COVID, revenue increased 12% in Q1 2021. Next Slide. For 9-month period, our sales increased in all regions. U.S. increased 7% year-over-year from strong demand in food service and positive FX. Geographic proportion increased to 43% from 42% last year. Domestic sales increased 4% thanks to frozen business supporting hospitality sector and retail. Europe sales increased 2% driven by resilient demand in ambient and positive FX. Next. Looking at the gross profit, THB 6.4 billion for the quarter, increased 1% versus last year, and gross profit margin consistent 18% versus 18.2% last year. Focus on segment.

Food service has been recovering, and we have continued to participate in this recovery in a meaningful fashion. We offer great food variety and penetrated our products into markets where we can best reach our customers. As a result, margin has been growing. PetCare was one segment that faced a temporary global capacity from Songkla Canning or i-Tail closure for two weeks and the freight inflation. Margin dropped a bit in this segment. Ambient normalizing effect with lower volume in U.S. and domestic, but our margin remains strong and consistent to prior quarters. For nine months, 2021, margin combined was strong, 18.2% versus 17.6% last year and 15.9% in 2019. Next. Operating profit, THB 1.9 billion in the Q3, 6% drop year-over-year. The logistics challenge continue.

Like Ludo mentioned, in the first and Q2, we saw the freight rates increase at about THB 200 million each quarter. The magnitude was higher in the Q3, and the freight increased to four hundred, approximately THB 470 million, and that directly impact our operating profit performance. We keep an eye on the situation, and at the same time, we mitigated this rising cost by controlling marketing and other fixed expenses. For nine months, 2021, SG&A increased 7%. Next. EBITDA for the quarter, 2.7% decline to THB 3.8 billion due to low operating profit. Our non-operating expenses were favorable, driven by the FX gain explained by Thai baht depreciation.

This offset by lower share profit mainly from, first, the Avanti business was affected by COVID-19 outbreak in India that lowered the production capacity and the recalled products that were exported to the U.S. Second was from Red Lobster lease accounting adjustments that reduced our share profit about 100 THB per quarter. Note that this is the accounting treatment and no impact on cash. In terms of Red Lobster operations, it was right on track and comparable to last year, which Ludo will elaborate on that. Nine months EBITDA 11.3, increased 15% year-over-year. Next. Net profit 1.9 billion THB, reduced 6%. The business environment in this quarter was challenging. We were facing some labor shortage in Thailand facilities, some longer shipping lead times as well as some freight rates increase.

With this has pushed our production cost and selling expense to increase across a number of different categories. We look at this as a short-term disruption and business will be improved in the year to go. Regardless of challenging environment, our nine-month net profit was high at THB 6 billion, 27% improved year-over-year. Next is the adjusted net profit. Last year in Q3 we adjusted negative THB 199 million for goodwill and related tax due to the fire incident in our Canada facility. This year in Q3 we adjusted THB 63 million insurance income for the fire incident in Canada and adjusted net income in this quarter was THB 1.88 million. Next. Earnings per share for the quarter, 0.40 baht, 4% drop year-over-year due to lower profit.

For nine months, THB 1.26 per share, same level of our record high in 2020, which is improved 32% year-over-year. Next will be Red Lobster. I'll turn it to Ludo.

Ludovic Garnier
CFO, Thai Union Group PCL

Thanks a lot, Amie. This is our usual table regarding Red Lobster performance. Just for you to remember, the first line we have our share of loss or share of profit coming from Red Lobster. The second line is the new thing we have since Q1 2021, the impact of the lease accounting adjustments, and the rest are all our usual lines. Okay, looking at the share of profit, we have a share of loss in Q3 2021 by THB 63 million. We are quite close from Q3 2020 where we did deliver THB 54 million baht of performance in Q3 2020. 2020 was quite good from Red Lobster, and we are doing almost the same performance. The share profit, we told you the impact will be something around THB 100 million baht share loss by quarter. We have this and this will continue going forward.

Other income, we have been increasing a bit. We have benefiting from some management fees in Q3 and Q1, and then we have the usual interest expense and income tax. Overall, we confirm the very strong recovery of Red Lobster. We are far away from the losses that we have been delivering last year in 2020. If you do remember, the situation is much better. We have all the restaurants which are fully open for dining in and off-premise. This is really good. Okay. However, we want them to get back to profit. Okay. We have a very strong plan, and maybe we move to next Slide. Here, we just wanted to share with you the key, the top priority for Red Lobster is really to increase the guest count. Okay.

We want to drive the profitable guest count growth, and we have different points to address this one. The first one is we want to improve the menu satisfaction. We believe we have some very good meals in the menu. However, we want to have more very strong meals and a lot of satisfaction coming from the different consumers. We are working very hard with Red Lobster people on how to improve the menu. We are also working very hard on the execution. This is a challenge, of course, we did increase and we did hire a lot of people at Red Lobster in the beginning of the year, so we have a lot of new joiners. Really a lot.

Of course, we need to do a lot of training to make sure that the staffing and all the people working in the restaurants, they are very efficient in the food preparation and in the service. These are two of the key requirements. When you go to a restaurant, you want to receive your food very quickly, and you want the quality to be really good. Again, we are doing some investments since the last two quarters on this one to really step up in terms of quality and in terms of execution. We believe this is really key in our strategy to turn around Red Lobster. Off-premise business, I don't comment that much. We did already comment a lot in Q1 and Q2. We are also pushing very hard on that.

If you do remember, I told you before the COVID-19, my own assessment was Red Lobster was a bit late compared to competition. I do believe that now with all the changes we have been implementing in 2020, now we are ahead of the competition, and we have a very good proposal regarding the off-premise business. Something which is very important is also to create everyday value. What do we mean by this? The people returning back to the restaurants, first of all, some of them have been losing their jobs. The situation, the economic situation in the U.S. for some people is not easy, so they are really looking for value. This is why we have some specific proposal with low price menu or low price item just to make sure we can attract all these people here.

The last part is really to marketing. In 2020, we cut a lot of our marketing investments to face with the COVID-19 situation. Now we are back. We are spending a bit more in terms of marketing spending. However, we are shifting our spending to digital activities. The idea, we have a very strong database already with 11 million customers. The idea for us is to grow and to really try to monetize this database. Overall, we have some good progress at Red Lobster in Q3. However, we are still loss-making. I think the big challenge for us will be Q4. In Q4, Red Lobster is always loss-making, quite heavily.

We maintain for the time being our full year target for Red Lobster share of loss, which is we said in Q2 between $200-$300. For the full year, we maintain the same guidance for Q4, so we do expect to have a significant loss happening in Q4. Of course, we try to do whatever we can to decrease and to limit as much as possible this impact. Now we'll hand over to Amie for the focus on the free cash flow.

Narisa Phahulrat
Executive of Group Accounting and Controlling, Thai Union Group PCL

Thanks again, Ludovic Garnier. We generated 9 months cumulative of THB 2.1 billion free cash flow from operations. The Q1 cash flow was -THB 125 from high level of inventory that was impact from the container shortage started in December 2020. Second and Q3 cash flow were positive. Profit was strong but penalized by higher net working capital due to high level of inventory from logistics disruption. A note for net working capital in Q3, high level of trade receivables were included thanks to incremental sales, and that impact high net working capital level in short term, which will turn to be cash in the year to go. Next. For net debt bridge, our debt increased. Sorry.

Our net increased THB 11 billion to THB 63 billion at the end of Q3, driven by if you look at the bridge, our profit increased THB 11 billion in nine months, but offset by 6 billion increase in net working capital and 2.6 billion capital investment, which we believe is a good healthy level. For the investing and financing activity, for the first nine months, we distributed THB 6.3 billion combined for tax, interest, and dividend payments. Other investments combined are about THB 7 billion to support our commitment in innovation and operations improvement. Majority investments are first, THB 1.7 billion invested in Rügen Fisch, as we mentioned in the last quarter. Second, THB 3 billion in R&B Food Supply.

We have THB 700 million in Clover Corporation, the tuna oil company in Australia that we announced last quarter. We also invested small amount, THB 60 million, in the startup food tech company. As a result, net debt to equity increased from 0.94 to 1.08, and that is within our target range of 1.0-1.1. Next.

Ludovic Garnier
CFO, Thai Union Group PCL

Amie, maybe let me jump on to this one.

Narisa Phahulrat
Executive of Group Accounting and Controlling, Thai Union Group PCL

[guess]

Ludovic Garnier
CFO, Thai Union Group PCL

Maybe just one comment on this one. Indeed, we have an increase of our net debt in Q3. We believe for us it's not a concern. We told you that our guidance 1.1, we are still below the guidance. Just to insist, over the nine months, we are delivering a record high EBITDA. Indeed, you can see we have this big change in net working capital, which is higher compared to expectation. I think we are facing really a unique situation of the freight issues, the container shortage. Because of this one, we have our level of inventory growing in many locations, in Asia, in the U.S., and also in Europe. This is also a decision we have made. We want to support our business.

We believe right now the momentum is very strong for all our activities. We took the decision to say, "Okay, we are ready to increase our level of net working capital, even if it's penalizing for our cash flow, but we want to support our business." Plus, I told you in Q2 that we were ready to do some investment. You can see here on the top right, you can see the box on the investment that Amie already mentioned, this one. We did some few investment over the last few months. These are the key drivers for our net debt. However, this is fully under control, and we are quite happy with the development on this one. Of course, in Q4, we will try to decrease the requirement of net working capital.

However, we want to fully support the business. This is very important for us, and we are facing with this unique situation. It's just a fact. Okay? Back to you, Amie.

Narisa Phahulrat
Executive of Group Accounting and Controlling, Thai Union Group PCL

Okay. On interest-bearing debt, not changed from prior quarter. Exposed more on various currencies through the sustainability financing programs. As you can see, our fundings were more exposed to USD, Euro, and Japanese Yen than the year before. Next Slide. The overall performance, return on equity and return on capital employed, improved versus last year and on good tracking. If you look at the inventory days, the days increased to 135 days from 126, mostly from the higher level of inventory, like Ludo mentioned. We also drove net working capital days to 116 days from 108 in the prior quarter. I'll turn the presentation to Kavalee.

Kalvalee Thongsomaung
Head of Investor Relations, Thai Union Group PCL

Thank you, Amie. We start with raw material prices. Tuna price in Q3 remained relatively stable at $1,400 per ton, so it dropped 7% year-on-year. In October, tuna price was up a bit to $1,500, but this is within our manageable range, as Khun Amie mentioned. In for 10 months this year to date, tuna price remain at low level. If you compare to the same period of last year, it's about $1,300 per ton. Shrimp price in Q3 declined 12% year-on-year. In October, shrimp price increased to THB 143 per kg, but that was typically the entering into the higher season for the shrimp raw material price in Q4 of the year.

10 months shrimp price still lower compared to the same period of last year. Next is on salmon price in Q3 remained stable both for Q3 and for October. 10 months salmon price remained in our budget. Next is on the foreign currency. Thai baht weakened against U.S. dollar by 5% year-on-year, against euro, weaker by 6% and pound by 12% year-on-year. FX rates for Thai baht still support our sales growth for 9 months. Next is on the three core businesses. Compared to Q3 last year, we saw higher sales portion from frozen and chilled seafood and PetCare and value-added business unit, while ambient sales portion normalized. The portion of the brand and private label have not been changed.

Next is on our performance. You can see from the right, it's for nine months. It's grown 3.6% from last year and almost 10% if you compare to the pre-COVID-19. Our gross margin has been on an upward trend, we go into more details on each business. For the ambient sales in Q3 declined 8%. We already mentioned the lower tuna sales in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. That is to reflect the exceptional high last year, and of course, some effect from ongoing container shortage. However, if you see the gross profit margin, it's remained high and stable at 20%+. Thanks to our lower raw material price and improving in sardine, mackerel, and salmon businesses. Of course, compared to pre-COVID-19, both sales and margin increased.

On the frozen and chilled seafood, this one is very outstanding. We see recoveries about 11%, and that's supported by the sales volume growth as well. Shrimp and lobster business unit were the key growth. We see substantial improvement in food service and retail in Asia and in the U.S. That's the result of the gross profit margin recovery very strong to 13% this quarter, compared to 11% Q3 last year. Both top-line margin expansion very strong and of course that from shrimp and particularly lobster business. Last is on the PetCare and value-added. Sales increased 12%. We did have the new product launch. We do have the customer base expansion higher sales of the value-added products.

Of course we have the greater performance of the packaging business. However, for the gross margin, it's lower, too, to 23.6%. That's because of the short-term disruption for the lower workforce capacity. We already mentioned the temporary factory closure in Songkhla province, Songkla Canning in southern Thailand. Also some higher freight costs of PetCare products to impact our trading business unit in the U.S. If we compare to pre-COVID, we see expanding of top-line margin. When we go to the geography, nine-month sales portion increased slightly for North America, thanks to the recovery of the frozen and chilled seafood business. The rest of the world, the portion increased slightly as well. That's from frozen and chilled and also PetCare and value-added. North America, I already mentioned.

Thai baht depreciation against the US dollar also support the top line. Of course, we still see the solid performance compared to pre-COVID-19. For the euro sales, it was decline in organic sales due to lower volume. We see lower volume in France, U.K., and Germany because last year they have a high base of the pantry loading. In euro, we of course have the support from Thai baht depreciation against euro and pound that already support our sales. Lastly, of course, compared to pre-COVID, we see the strong demand compared to pre-COVID. For Thailand, sales still down 6%, despite we see a recovery of frozen and chilled seafood, but of course it's declined from the ambient sales last year, a high base last year. Thailand sales remain challenged compared to pre-COVID-19.

Lastly, on the sales in emerging and the rest of the world, sales in China and Japan grew 36% and 2% year-on-year. That's supported by the Frozen and PetCare and Value-added business. Some slight decrease in the Middle East. Again, this business segment remains challenged compared to the pre-COVID level. Overall this quarter, we deliver consistent high gross margin. To sum up for you, margin recovery for Frozen and Chilled business, resilient for the Ambient seafood and of course some temporary margin drop from PetCare and Value-added business. For our this year's financial guidance, we assess only on the CapEx.

You can see this one we lower from THB 5 billion to a range THB 4 billion-THB 4.5 billion due to a postponement of CapEx into next year. The rest we maintain our sales forecast 3%-5%, gross margin 17%-18%, and lastly we confirm our dividend policy at least 50% payout ratio. This wraps up our presentation.

Ludovic Garnier
CFO, Thai Union Group PCL

Khun Kalvalee, just one thing to add maybe.

Kalvalee Thongsomaung
Head of Investor Relations, Thai Union Group PCL

Yeah.

Ludovic Garnier
CFO, Thai Union Group PCL

On the CapEx to make it clear.

Kalvalee Thongsomaung
Head of Investor Relations, Thai Union Group PCL

Yeah.

Ludovic Garnier
CFO, Thai Union Group PCL

The amount we indicate here, it's a net amount. We have in Q3, we sold a piece of land in Thailand for THB 400 million, so THB 4.4 billion. The CapEx you see here, it's a net CapEx of this amount, so if you want to have the gross CapEx, you have to increase it 4.4. This is also part of the reason why we are revising down our guidance, just to make it clear for everyone. Apart from that, the guidance remain all the same for the full year.

Kalvalee Thongsomaung
Head of Investor Relations, Thai Union Group PCL

Okay, that's sum up for the presentation. Now we would like to open the floor for the Q&A. For any participants who have inquiry, please submit the question in the chat box. Or you can raise your hand and unmute your microphone if you want to raise the question by yourself. Now please allow me to raise the first question: What do you have for the THB 1.48 billion cash from TFM IPO?

Ludovic Garnier
CFO, Thai Union Group PCL

Here we don't have any specific plan for this one, so we are benefiting from this one in Q4. You have seen in Q3 we have an increase of our net debt, so we first use this one in order to reduce our net debts. You have seen also in Q3 that we are open for opportunities for investment. Okay, we always have different projects and different targets to look at. We look at this one, nothing specific to share with you tonight, but overall we will be using this cash income for delivery to our investors.

Rujirada Kongros
IR Manager, Thai Union Group PCL

Okay. Next question, can you elaborate more on the margin enhancement for frozen seafood? Will high gross profit margin be able to sustain as a result?

Ludovic Garnier
CFO, Thai Union Group PCL

I think one of the key differences in Q3 for the frozen business is we see a lot of recovery also in Asia. If you do remember, in Q1 and in Q2, I told you that the key driver was really the U.S. very strong recovery. In Q3, we still have some growth in the U.S., but it's a bit less dynamic than what we had in Q1 and Q2. The key change happening in Q3 is coming from Asia. Asia is very dynamic from a frozen point of view. Yes, we do believe that the positive momentum from the frozen business will continue in Q4, both from the Asia and also the U.S. market.

I told you at the beginning of the year in Q1 that the margin, especially in the U.S., were really exceptional because we are facing a situation of unbalanced market between supply and demand. We told you that the situation was not sustainable. For sure, it will stop at one stage. Right now in 2021, we are benefiting from exceptionally high growth of its margin. However, we do believe this one will continue in Q4, and we do expect some normalization to happen in 2022. Yes, the strong momentum of the frozen will continue in Q4. This is right now our forecast.

Rujirada Kongros
IR Manager, Thai Union Group PCL

One more question on the Frozen seafood and Ambient seafood business. We see a recovery of Frozen seafood business as well as a normalization of Ambient seafood business in the Q2 and Q3. This trend will continue in the Q4 and 2022 or not? How could you give a guidance?

Ludovic Garnier
CFO, Thai Union Group PCL

Maybe I take this one also. The frozen we already mentioned about this one, and I told you, yes, the frozen we believe will continue in Q4. Will the gross profit margin of the frozen be as high in Q4 than in Q3? We don't know yet. It was almost record high at 13% in Q3. Few years ago, we get back to our numbers, we did achieve one quarter 14%, so this is not record high. However, as long as we are between 12%-13%, we are very happy with our frozen performance. Ambient, we have seen that in Q3, we have again our normalization. It's not a surprise. We told you at the beginning of the year that we were expecting some normalization to happen during the whole year.

What we have seen since Q1 should continue in Q4. Overall, we have been enjoying a very nice gross profit margin in Q1, in Q2, in Q3. We do believe it will continue in Q4. Please remember that in Q4 usually we have a small decline of gross profit margin. This is coming from our seasonality. We are selling in Q4 usually more Frozen products and less Ambient products. Usually you always see in Q4 a small decline on our gross profit margin. However, you have seen that our overall guidance for the full year was maintained between 17%-18%, and we believe we will deliver the high range of this guidance over the full year. 2022, we don't provide any guidance yet. We are working right now on the budget.

We have some first visibility. I told you we have some challenges and some watch outs and some inflation coming from the packaging, also coming from some oils. We have to face with this one. We do believe the freight situation will continue in 2022. We expect the situation to continue at least in H1 2022, and we do expect to see some kind of normalization to happen in Q3 and in Q4 2022. Of course, on this one, I want to be a bit careful because I told you in Q4 2020 that I was expecting some normalization to happen. In 2021, I was wrong. Nobody could expect the situation would be so long on this one.

However, you could see that we were able to face with this one, and we were able to manage the situation in Q3 and in Q4.

Rujirada Kongros
IR Manager, Thai Union Group PCL

What is the same-store sales growth and total store sales growth for Red Lobster in the Q3 2021 and nine months 2021?

Ludovic Garnier
CFO, Thai Union Group PCL

We don't disclose specific numbers from Red Lobster. I think we are really very transparent with the contribution of Red Lobster, but we don't disclose the sales or the net income or the EBITDA of Red Lobster. This is the same situation since the beginning of the year. What you could see through the numbers we have been communicating is overall the situation has been completely turned around compared to last year, okay. We are miles away from the very difficult situation that we had in 2020. However, we are still delivering a loss, okay. We are not happy with the loss at Red Lobster. We want the situation to turn around to be a profit. It will be a challenge.

We know it will take some time on this one, but we work very hard with the team there to improve and to turn around the situation to get back to a profit over the full year. It will not be the case in 2021. Again, our full year guidance is still between $200 million-$300 million Red Lobster. For the full year, you can see over 9 months, we are almost at breakeven, slightly negative for Red Lobster. It means that the share of loss is expected to be quite large in Q4. Of course, we want to decrease this impact. There are some specific activities happening right now at Red Lobster in order to try to maximize the share of profit in Q4.

However, they are always facing with a low seasonality in Q4, and it will continue in 2021 and for the next years.

Rujirada Kongros
IR Manager, Thai Union Group PCL

Would it be possible to quantify impact in Thai baht terms on your sales and costs from factory closures during the Q3 2021?

Ludovic Garnier
CFO, Thai Union Group PCL

This one, honestly, we tried to do it, honestly, but it's a bit difficult to do. Why is it difficult? Of course, it's very easy for us to give you the impact for one factory closure. This is easy to manage. However, you know we have quite a strong network, and we were able to reallocate some of these volumes, of these closed factories to some other factories. At the end of the day, we don't want to provide you with a gross amount because net-net we have been able to reallocate some of these volumes to some other factories. The issue we are facing is with the freight cost and the container shortage issue, the situation in the supply chain is overall a bit challenging. Okay. Definitely, yes, we have been impacted in Q3.

We have lost some sales or we have been delaying some sales, and especially also we have been facing with some increasing costs in our COGS and also in our SG&A. Why? Because we have to pay some extra bonus for the people coming and working in these difficult conditions, and also we have some increasing operating costs during these conditions. Okay? However, again, the key message is we are able to face and to manage this difficulty. Even despite all these challenges, and there were some challenges really happening in Q3, we are able to report a very healthy performance in Q3.

Rujirada Kongros
IR Manager, Thai Union Group PCL

With loss target for Red Lobster in 2021 of THB 200 million-THB 300 million, that means Red Lobster loss in the Q4 2021 could be lower than Q4 last year of THB 321 million.

Ludovic Garnier
CFO, Thai Union Group PCL

Yeah. I think, I think this is very simple math, but I think this is correct. Our ambition is we want them to increase year-on-year, every quarter. Yes, in Q4 2020 they did deliver quite a significant loss by THB 321 million. We want them to deliver a lower loss in Q4 2021. Again, it will not be easy because of the seasonality. However, we have launched some initiative. Let's see how the numbers. Yes, the ambition is they will be improving. Full year we have an ambition between THB 200 million to THB 300 million coming from Red Lobster.

Rujirada Kongros
IR Manager, Thai Union Group PCL

Next, can we assume volume growth recovery for PetCare in the Q4 2021 compared to the Q3 2021?

Ludovic Garnier
CFO, Thai Union Group PCL

We told you that in Q3 we have been facing a unique situation with the closure of ACC. At this stage now all the factories are up and running and back to normal production. Yes, we do expect to see some recovery in PetCare. One watch out, we are still facing the issues on the raw material costs and hopefully we can improve. Yes, there was some volume being delayed from Q3 to Q4. Now we need to see the situation at the end of 2021. We could face also some delay from the end of the year to beginning of next year. However, yes, we do believe that the PetCare performance will improve. We do expect that the gross profit margin especially was a bit low.

It's very high of course, but it was a bit low compared to historical track record, and we do expect to normalize this in Q4. Keep in mind that the numbers we have been disclosing for the PetCare and value-added, we are still showing strong growth in Q3 despite all this, despite this closure from one factory. We do believe we are quite happy with the situation. Again, some challenges in our supply chain, but we are able to manage and to face with the situation.

Rujirada Kongros
IR Manager, Thai Union Group PCL

Okay. Now, we don't have more questions.

Narisa Phahulrat
Executive of Group Accounting and Controlling, Thai Union Group PCL

One question.

Ludovic Garnier
CFO, Thai Union Group PCL

Somebody is raising their hand, no?

Rujirada Kongros
IR Manager, Thai Union Group PCL

Okay. I saw Khun Chalee. Unmute your microphone please to ask the question.

Ludovic Garnier
CFO, Thai Union Group PCL

No more hands raised. Any more questions we may have?

Rujirada Kongros
IR Manager, Thai Union Group PCL

Yes. Before we end the session, Ludo, would you like to leave any message for the investors?

Ludovic Garnier
CFO, Thai Union Group PCL

No, maybe just a quick one in the summary. Again, we are very happy with Q3 performance. We are facing some challenges, not only Thai Union, but all the businesses you have seen. The container shortage, the freight cost, the inflation. We have some challenges. We faced some challenges in Q3. We have some of those in front of us, but overall the momentum is really strong for the company, and for the group and all our activities. We believe Q4 will follow the same trend. I think we are very pleased, especially with the bottom line. The fact that we have achieved in nine months almost the same performance than last year, over 12 months, is very encouraging for us. Okay? So we believe the momentum is good.

We want to push. We want to achieve a record high year for the whole year 2021. We are very confident. We are working right now on the plan for 2022. There will be some challenges, this is life, but there will be also a lot of opportunities for our business. Okay. That's it.

Rujirada Kongros
IR Manager, Thai Union Group PCL

Okay. This concludes the virtual earnings call for Thai Union Group Q3 2021 result announcement. Thank you very much for your time and interest in participating the event today. We would like to invite you all to join Thai Union Group's analyst meeting tomorrow morning at 10 A.M. Our CEO, Khun Thiraphong, will also host the event with the company's strategy and key development update. If you have any further questions, please feel free to contact our IR department. We wish you have a good day and night. Thank you very much.

Ludovic Garnier
CFO, Thai Union Group PCL

Thanks to all.

Rujirada Kongros
IR Manager, Thai Union Group PCL

Thank you.

Ludovic Garnier
CFO, Thai Union Group PCL

Stay safe. See you. Bye-bye. See you tomorrow.

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