Joining us. It's my great pleasure to introduce our next speaker, Onur Genç, Chief Executive Officer of BBVA, a role which he has held since 2018. Now, before we begin, I need to make clear that, due to various legal and compliance considerations, neither Onur nor I will be able to discuss the proposed takeover of Sabadell by BBVA. So please do bear that in mind when we come to the audience Q&A later in the session. And when we do come to the Q&A, I'll ask everybody to state your name and institution, for our sakes. Now, this chat is scheduled to last for about 35 minutes. That will include some time towards the end for audience Q&A, as I mentioned.
To begin with, Onur and I are gonna run through the performance and outlook of BBVA's core markets, before moving into some more specific financial questions. Onur, thank you for spending the time. Thank you.
Thank you, and thank you, to coming to Madrid. It's a wonderful city. It's great to host you.
I agree. I agree. Good football as well. First, I want to begin by talking about this value creation mindset that you've talked about as the culture that sort of drives BBVA. If you look back at your time leading BBVA so far, how do you think we've seen that in action?
The value creation mindset, obviously, it goes beyond me. It's the whole institution, in my view. But how do you see it in action? You see it in action in all the... It starts with the mindset. The mindset is, capital is the scarce resource, and you have to optimize capital. You have to optimize the scarce resource. If they teach you in operations research and industrial engineering, the first thing that they teach you, optimize the scarce resource. And that's the mindset that we have. And as such, you see that in action in all the strategic decisions that we have taken. In the last 10 years, we have sold EUR 16 billion, euros, sorry, worth of assets, starting with China, but lately, as you know, the U.S. franchise, we sold it at EUR 9.6 billion.
We sold Chile, we sold Paraguay, and so on. In all those strategic decisions, what we did realize was that there was a better owner for that asset. In the case of U.S., which I was the CEO of the U.S. for a while, as you, as you might know, there was a better owner, and they paid us 20x earnings. So in those strategic decisions, when we, when we felt, when we saw that value creation is better than by someone else, and they are ready to monetize that, and they're ready to give that value to us, you did take those strategic decisions. You see that in action in the operating decisions of the bank, in day-to-day operations.
We spent a lot of time and created this, in my view, wonderful system to make sure that at the micro level, micro capital planning level, we optimize capital. What does that mean? Any part of BBVA, any part of the world, if in Peru, you want to give a loan, that loan consumes capital, and that loan capital consumption is seen by the store, by the RM, by the branch manager, by the country manager, by me. We see all of that capital consumption, and we say that any capital consumption that you do by extending loans to clients, it has to beat certain benchmarks. You can invest in clients, you can invest in clients, but then it goes into a pool, and if you want to keep investing in clients, that pool has to be managed.
You have to get those clients out of that pool, exception pool, so that you can continue to invest. But overall, the principle is very simple. When you extend the loan, you consume capital, and that capital has to beat benchmarks. And then you see that in the management decisions of the bank. We are one of the very few banks who put Tangible Book Value per Share plus dividends into our compensation scheme. Our long-term compensation scheme, 80% of long-term compensation is two metrics, Tangible Book Value per Share, 40%, and the other forty... It's public, that's why I'm explaining it. The other 40% is the relative value to shareholders. All of that is creating this value creation mindset, and that value creating, creation mindset is creating a differential performance for us.
The tangible book value that I just mentioned as part of our compensation scheme, in our results presentations, every quarter, we put it onto the market. This first page or the second page, we have profits, capital, and then Tangible Book Value per Share. That's all the value creation mindset. And then as a result, consistently, in the past few years, we are delivering better Return on Tangible Equity, better Tangible Book Value per Share, returns to our shareholders. We paid EUR 13.4 billion to our shareholders in the last three, four years, since 2021, 13.4. The total return to shareholders for BBVA is 202% since 2019. 202%, and the average of the European banks is 100%, and the average of the Spanish banks is 67%.
So all of that strategic management, operating level decisions on capital, in our view, is leading to this differential performance.
Let's turn now to the markets, and maybe given that we're here in Madrid, let's begin with Spain. One of the bright spots of Europe, clearly from a macro perspective recently, higher rates have supported Spanish banks' improvement in, in profitability. However, as we get closer to an easing monetary cycle, where do you see returns in that business in, in two years' time when you think about the outlook for NII, for costs, for credit costs, et cetera?
So in two years, Spain, we still see it at a very high level, relatively decent profitability that we have been enjoying in the past year. We do think that will continue in the coming years. But before, maybe let's contextualize it with the market fundamentals. On the macro, Spain has been doing relatively well in the past. Except the COVID, actually, if you take the past decade, it has always beaten the Eurozone. And there are a few reasons for that. It's a service-based economy, especially after COVID, we are benefiting from that in a major way. It's a service-based economy. There is some homogenization happening in Europe, the Next Generation EU funds. I mean, if you know the size of Next Generation EU funds for Spain is EUR 165 billion.
So that's the kind of funding and help, and basically half of it is grants, is coming from Europe to Spain as part of the homogenization of the economic environment in the Eurozone. So Next Generation EU, service-based economy, and this decarbonization topic, we do think it's an important topic. Spain is one of the natural beneficiary of this trend. We do have the sun, as you can see, it's always sunny here. All of that combined is creating that impetus for Spain to do better in macro. And we do think that as compared to European averages, Spain will continue to beat the Eurozone averages in the coming years. That's the macro side. On top of this, we should overlay the banking sector, which is gonna drive also, there are some correlations in between.
The banking sector, in our view, is gonna grow a bit better than even the economy in the coming years, for the same reasons, but also on the fact that Spain has been deleveraging in the past 15 years. Every single year, except after COVID, every single year, Spain has been deleveraging, so lending is shrinking, not growing. It has come to a point now, as of this year, as of last year, actually, now the leverage in Spain is now lower than Europe, and it used to be double of Europe in 2010. Corporate debt over GDP, it used to be 120% of GDP in 2010, 120. Now it's 65%, so it's kind of half, and now we are lower than Eurozone.
So this leverage coming down under Europe is giving us the hope that, coupled with the previous trends that I talked to you about, decarbonization and the service-based economy and so on, the fact that the country is doing better than Eurozone, we do think that on the macro side, and on the banking sector side, we will see some relatively positive news as compared to before. I'm talking relatively. In that context, would we be able to maintain in the next two years, the profitability as we have been having this year? Our response is clearly yes, for a few reasons. You're asking the two years, but two, two or more in the coming years, we already hedged the negative. The interest rate sensitivity that we have has been coming down. We have been managing it.
So in the very, very short term, the NII sensitivity that we have now, it's public also, we announce this every quarter, is for every 100 basis points, step function decline in rates, our NII sensitivity is now around 5%. 5%. And we have been reducing that. It used to be 20%. It has come down. So for the next 2, 3 years, in any case, the sensitivities are managed because we have invested in our ALCO books, we have put in some hedges in place to manage the sensitivity. And that 5%, what does that imply? That 5% implies we have EUR 6 billion of NII in Spain. 5% is basically EUR 300 million. So let's assume that European Central Bank takes rates from 4, the deposit rate, to 2.5, 150 basis points.
That 150 basis points, for us, with that sensitivity, implies EUR 450 million. That is the negative side, so the customer spread will come down, and you would see the hit in the spreads in the NII. But there are positives. Given all the things that I explained to you, we do think that the volume growth is gonna be better than what we have seen in the past few years. You already see it in the first quarter. In the first quarter, the new facturación, as we call it, the new production, is up 5% in Spain versus the year before. You see it in our lending balances. BBVA has grown in the first quarter, 0.8% year-over-year.
So we are seeing some little signals, it's not compared to other emerging geographies that we are in, but the volume growth will be better than what we are used to, in our view. And when rates come down, you would also see the benefit of that in, in obviously cost of risk. So some of that EUR 450 million, I gave you the direct number. Some of that EUR 450 million will be compensated by cost of risk and volume growth. And as a result, we do think that the profitability levels that we enjoy in, in Spain these days will, will continue.
Then turning to Mexico, clearly, performance has been incredibly strong in recent years, but the outlook for interest rates is now starting to change. And structurally, we've also seen some important changes in terms of the competitive landscape with new disruptors emerging. In that context, how do you expect the earnings picture to evolve for Mexico over time?
Again, positive. We are, some of you, we discuss it from time to time, but we are very positive on Mexico.
Mm.
Very positive. You mentioned about the new disruptors. You called it disruptors? We are taking them really seriously. They are very credible competitors, but we do have an amazing bank in Mexico. So our expectation is that we will continue to grow our profits in Mexico in the coming years. But maybe again, let's contextualize it. Let's contextualize the macro and the banking sector environment before we talk about BBVA Mexico. In the macro environment, especially in the last two years, and especially last year, we have seen something really beautiful happening in Mexico. In 2023, Mexico has become the number one trade partner with the U.S., passing China after so many decades. So number one partner.
FDI, foreign direct investment, mainly coming from the U.S., but foreign direct investment is up 27%, 2023 numbers I'm quoting. Investments, which has always been the soft spot of Mexico, private investments, it's now the driving force for the GDP. Investments are going up. Imports of capital goods, which is a very important number in our view, which is the future. You invest in the future through the capital goods, is up 2023, 13.6%, 'cause we have 14%.... All of these numbers are telling us something. And then when you look into the fundamentals, why is this happening? Especially after the rhetoric that the U.S. has with China, Mexico is benefiting from this. That's the key driver.
At the end of the day, the manufacturing cost, the labor cost in Mexico, versus a very low-cost state in United States, Indiana. When you do two comparison, it's 1/5.
Mm.
In certain sectors, one-sixth. There is such a big difference between the labor costs that the underlying current is too strong. As a result, this nearshoring, again, driven by the rhetoric with China, has been helping Mexico a lot. If you couple this with the demographic dividend, the average age of Mexico is thirties. If you couple this with a very important factor for us, which is very low leverage, very low leverage in Mexico, we are quite positive on the overall Mexican space. And maybe one word on this leverage topic, the banking debt over GDP, we quote it from time to time in our conference calls as well. Banking debt over GDP, very simple number, it's 36% in Mexico, 36. That same number is 48% in Peru.
Mm.
It's 72% in Brazil, 113% in Chile, 200% in the US, in developed economies. Mexico is one of the most under-leveraged country in the world, even in the emerging markets landscape. It goes back to Tequila Crisis, because Mexico had many crises in the past and so on, but the leverage is so low. As a result, the sector, and BBVA particularly, we have been growing double-digit, pre-COVID, after COVID. When you look into the annual growth rates of lending in Mexico for BBVA, it's double-digit. And that double-digit is happening without creating a major issue on cost of risk. It's healthy lending growth because of the low leverage.
So if you are looking into a structural market, amazing prospects, because of a huge market next to it, if you look into the leverage situation in the country, we are positive on the context. And on top of this, you put BBVA Mexico, which is, in my view, I've seen many banks in my life, it's an amazing bank.
Mm.
Amazing. Even within the BBVA landscape, it's an amazing, amazing bank. The power of a bank. You can look into a few metrics to see the power of a bank. You can look into cost of funding. Traditional banks, you should look into cost of funding versus the competition, and you should look into the position of the bank in cash flow businesses. Cash flow businesses, because cash flow businesses, it's very tough to replicate your strength there. Your competitors cannot really displace you that quickly if you are really good in cash management.
Mm.
Okay? Cost of funding, we have... In the first quarter, we have 2.8% cost of funding, when our largest competitors is 5.4, when the interest rate in the country is 11%. 2.8% is what we have. Cash management businesses, we have 44% market share in payrolls. Again, we quote this number from time to time, 44% in a country. So 44% of the salaries that a country pays, state, public, every, private, every company is in the... 44% goes through BBVA. We have 38% market share in acquiring the POS machine business, which is a cash management business for the companies. We have been investing in Mexico for 10 years, consistently in, in much better and much larger than the competitors, that we believe we did create these hard-to-replicate assets.
In that context, again, disruptors, that was the key question, and then I diverged a bit because I'm really passionate about Mexico. We respect them again. They are really credible competitors, but some of the competitive advantages that we have built over years, we do believe we are. It's very tough to replicate. We are the largest fintech in Mexico. Last year, we acquired 5.2 billion-- million customers, 5.2. 85% of that, 83%, to be specific, 83% was acquired end-to-end digital. We didn't. They didn't go to a branch. They didn't call anyone. They became a customer, new customer acquisition, through digital channels. This is what fintechs do, so we are the largest fintech in Mexico. If you have these hard-to-replicate assets, we have 15,000 ATMs in Mexico, by far the largest network.
If you have these assets, we have to do our job well. We have to, we have to manage this really well, but we are confident that we will continue to meet the challenge of disruptors or others, and we will continue to deliver very good profits in Mexico.
Very clear. So Spain, Mexico, I guess you can guess what we're gonna come to next. So Turkey, you recently mentioned the central bank's commitment to orthodoxy and also the gradual shift to a more restrictive fiscal stance. So how important a change is this for the Garanti franchise, and how do you see Turkey's role within the BBVA group going forward?
We see it as a very integral, integral part of BBVA. The original investment story in Turkey was a very similar one to the Mexico, which is Mexico being very close, large enough, relatively stable, democratic country, close to a large market. We do believe that the tailwind of being close to a large market helps. That was the story of Mexico many, many years ago, among other things, but that was the reason for Turkey as well. Turkey is very close to Turkey. Turkey is a manufacturing hub for Europe. It's an 85 million people country. It's now $1 trillion economy, so large enough, democratic, close to a large market geography. So that was the investment story. Then over years, we have seen many...
I don't know what to call it, but wrong decisions or imbalances in the economy, imbalances. The only thing I can tell you is that it's a huge option value for BBVA, in our view. It's, again, an amazing franchise. It's the best bank, again, by clear, very objective metrics. It's the best bank in the country, in a country that we think is coming back to life. In the last year, there were elections in May 2023, so exactly one year ago, there were elections, and since then, the government has changed the economic team. What we have seen in the last year is really positive, and if you had asked me a year ago, would you have expected to be where we are today a year ago? My answer would have been clearly no.
They have realized the imbalances in the economy, and they have been attacking it in a very proper and very right way. As a result, what we are seeing? We are seeing the CDS of the country, which is one metric among many other things, but it used to be 700s, now it's 260. 260. One of the very important imbalances and facts that we didn't like is the net reserves of Turkey was - $60 billion. -$60 billion, reserves of a central bank. We are in emerging economies, but this is, this is, this is an imbalance. Let me call it an imbalance. And yet last week, for the first time, after so many years, Turkey is now back to positive reserves in net reserves, excluding swaps and everything.
So the government is doing the right things, the economic team is doing the right things. If they continue on this path, we are very positive. Again, based on the same fundamentals that we talked about for Mexico, I mean, very demographic dividend, very low of age. It's 32. The average age in Germany is 47. So, I mean, it's young, and demographic dividend is a factor in economic development. Similar to what I discussed for Mexico, low leverage. Obviously, we have to see how this episode turns out. We are still not out of the woods, huh? We are not...
We have always been cautious, if you remember me in these conferences or in the conference calls, we have always been cautious on Turkey because we had to see that there is some clear will and clear redirection of the economy towards, towards normality and towards the right decisions. That is happening, but it's one year, so we have to see it in action a bit more. And if that continues, if that continues, $1 trillion economy, you have the best bank in that country. I'm not going to give you the numbers of Garanti, but similar numbers. In all the cash flow businesses, we have, again, maybe one number only, 22% market share in credit cards and in acquiring. Again, very, very important metrics, hard to replicate assets that you built. As a result, we are positive, and let's see.
Let's see how the situation turns out. But it's a huge option value, huge option value. When we invested EUR 700 million in 2021 for this last OPA, the 36% of BBVA, we- of Garanti BBVA, we bought seven hundred before, EUR 700 million in capital, EUR 1.4 billion in cash, but EUR 700 million capital consumption. I mean, this room, I mean, you killed us. In, in for EUR 700 million capital, which is the only additional incremental capital that we put into that transaction, we lost EUR 7 billion as compared to the market, EUR 7 billion in two weeks in market cap. EUR 7 billion versus EUR 700 million. How much can we lose? We cannot lose more than EUR 700 million. That's the additional incremental decision that we took, but we lost EUR 7 billion.
And at that time, this room and beyond, they, they called us crazy, they called us: What kind of a capital decision is this? And the same group, more or less, is today calling us, "It was the right decision." And both argumentation, in my view, is wrong. We don't know yet. We have to see. We have to see whether the country delivers, we have to see the country is back on track, and in that scenario, it's a huge option value for BBVA.
Very clear. I have one more question before I turn over to audience Q&A. I want to sort of wrap this all together and think about when you're considering the P&L, you're guiding for double-digit net profit growth this year, ROT in the high teens, above last year's level of 17%. Do you expect ROT to remain in the high teens on a three-cycle basis? And what are the areas that you and your team, your leadership team, are focusing in on to sort of drive that?
The short answer to, because I gave relatively long answers. You told me 35 minutes, and you said we have 5 minutes, so I was trying to gauge myself.
No, no, we have a bit more time.
We are okay. Okay, so, the short answer to your question is yes, we do expect to continue to deliver high teens or high Return on Tangible Equity going forward. Why is that the case? Because what is the equity story of BBVA? The equity story of BBVA is actually, in my view, two things: We have wonderful franchises in my view, proven, it's not a subjective metric, proven by ROE of the industry that in the countries that we are in, ROE of the industry versus ROE of BBVA in that same country. In practically all of the countries that we are in, there is a meaningful positive gap versus the average of the industry. And this is consistent.
It's not 1 year, 2 years, it has been like this for quite a number of years, which means we do have leading great franchises. Why is that the case? In my view, it goes back to the scale component once again. In retail and commercial banking, something big is happening in our industry, and we are seeing it, saying it, talking about it, but we have to realize that it is changing the fundamentals of our balance sheet and P&L. It used to be, many years ago, variable distribution cost business, meaning if you wanted to grow, you opened branches, and you hired people, put into those branches, and you grew.... variable distribution, people in the branches and branches, the real estate around it and so on, it used to be 60% of our costs. That 60% has been coming down every single year, percentage-wise.
What is it, what is it being replaced with? With this, with technology. So it is now becoming a fixed cost business, which is technology. I give these numbers from time to time. It used to be five years ago, 19% of our costs were technology, now it's 26%. Some of you, some of the analysts have written, but we don't see the 26 in the numbers, because technology, we are looking into it as a bucket of technology. Personnel costs, personnel, a piece of the personnel costs is now technology. So we are looking into it as a category. It is becoming technology. From variable distribution business to a fixed cost, technology cost-driven business. That's what's happening. In that context, and most of these costs, fixed costs, are driven by local scale, because they are different back ends.
Most of the development, software development, is happening in the back ends, so local scale is the key determinant. In that context, why am I saying this? We have leading franchises, we have a meaningful, positive, meaningful gap versus the average of the industry, because we have scale in wherever we are. Because that scale gives us that benefit of depreciating the cost of technology, of the, the fixed cost, to a larger revenue base, to a larger client base. Given that, I do think that we will continue to have a positive, meaningful gap versus the industry. That's number one. And number two, on top of this change in the industry and our positioning, I do think that we did take the right decisions in the past to focus on the right strategic areas to push forward.
This notion about digital, I mean, you heard BBVA talking about digital for so many years.
Mm.
So many years, and we invested much more and much earlier than others, in our view, than our competitors. We see it in some of the numbers that is being made public. But that strategy of digitalization, innovation, and now sustainability, because sustainability is a big part of the society, a challenge and an opportunity that we have to tap in. The focus on these areas, I do think, is also gonna be differentiating us. I mean, last quarter, 78% of the sales of BBVA unit sales, if you sell a credit card, if you sell a loan, if you open a new account, it's one, you count them each one. 78% was done end-to-end digital, so it's a digital sales notion. Again, 67% of the new customers that we acquired in the group were digitally acquired.
So if you couple scale, the fact that you are either number one, number two, maybe number three, but if you are one of the largest players in the market, that you can then invest in technology, then you can create better prices for customers, because you can depreciate this cost to a larger customer base. If you have that, and if you have been focusing on the right areas, we do think that we will, again, maintain that positive gap versus the rest of the industry. And if that positive gap is there, what is the cost of equity for the banking sector? Okay, 12-13-
The AT1 yesterday, yeah.
Yeah. So it's, it's a signal, but, I mean, the cost of equity for the banking sector should be, let's say, depending on the country, 11, 12, 13, 14, in the countries that we are in. If you add on top, a meaningful gap on top of that, we will maintain the Return on Tangible Equity that we have, is our conviction. I mean, there might be fluctuations from one year to another. We have seen them in the past. But if you also look into BBVA, 10 years, 15 years, 20 years, relatively large time frames, 8 years, the standard deviation along the trend curve that we have is very low.
So there might be fluctuations from one year to another, but as long as you have those structural advantages to compete, we do think that we will maintain that, and we do think that we will have those high teens of Return on Tangible Equity. And more importantly, again, Tangible Book Value per Share.
Yeah.
Tangible Book Value per Share plus dividends for a bank like us, which we are in many geographies, different currencies, and securities, books, and so on. Banks, especially like us, we have to focus on tangible value, but we do think that we will maintain a very attractive tangible value profile going forward. As in this matrix that we put into our quarterly presentations, growth, profitability. We... I love that page, and nobody even recognizes the page, but it's a page of-
Bubbles
... 15 bubbles.
Yeah.
The largest 15 European banks. The position of BBVA, in my view, by facts, it's not like a subjective opinion, is unique. We have been growing our revenues much better than others. We have been delivering better profitability, much better than others, based on the numbers that's available, that's public. So we are positive in general, in short. There might be short-term fluctuations, but we are positive.
Okay, very clear. So I think this is a good time to go to audience Q&A. I have three requests. First is, if you could wait for a microphone before you start asking your question. The second would be if you could identify yourself and the institution you represent. And then the third is the polite reminder that we're not going to be able to discuss the proposed takeover of Sabadell by BBVA. So who would like to ask a question?
I mean, 80% of the room will leave now after your statement.
In the middle of the front.
Hi, this is Yi Qian from Atlanticomnium. Thank you for the presentation. I'm just curious, theoretically thinking, if you are going into a new market, would you consider which one is more important, building a physical scale first and then implement the digitalization? Or you think you can already implement what you have into that market and build the scale?
...
Thank you.
I mean, building the physical infrastructure to a scale that we need is not easy. So in terms of if you're asking new markets, pure new markets, no? In that sense, we wouldn't want to get into a completely new market by building branches and so on. It would be completely against what I have been explaining in this little chat. It's a scale business if you want to serve all the segments with all the channels. If you want to serve all the segments with all the channels, you need scale. And building that scale, ground up, one by one, with branches, is not possible. That's why we are seeing only a way to go to the new markets through digital means.
That's why we have established this digital bank in Italy, you might know, and we do have equity participation in a digital bank in the UK and in Brazil. And that's it. We are not gonna, we're not gonna do more. We want to make sure that we deliver on these. But on those, it's pure digital banks, because with pure digital banks, your cost to income is much better, again, than competitors. So you either need to have scale to have a better cost profile versus your competitors if you are in all the segments and all the channels. If not, you might want to serve only a slice of the market, because not everyone is pure digital. But with that, only with a digital bank proposition, which is gonna be, again, better cost to income.
I'll give you a number. Cost to income of a pure digital bank is around 20%. The cost to income of BBVA now is 41%, which is the best in Europe, but it's 41%. So a digital bank cannot grow too much, but can serve only a certain segment, but can still make a proposition with a better cost to income. As such, we are testing this proposition in Italy, which is going much better than what we thought. But to be fair, we were a bit lucky, because the rates have gone up very quickly, and that proposition with high rates is a better proposition than otherwise.
So it's going much better than what we originally thought, but it's gonna be a small value prop at the moment, and it's not gonna be a core of BBVA in the next five years. But in the future, it will be. To cut long story short, you again you asked a straightforward question, let me answer it in a straightforward manner. We don't plan to go into new markets at all with establishing new branches and so on. If we do at all go into a new market, it will only be through a digital bank proposition.
Any other questions? Middle of the room, over there. Adam.
Morning, it's Adam Terelak with Millennium. I want to ask about Mexico. Clearly, you've got a change in government there. I want to know what your expectations are, what that does for your opportunities, but also risks to your business. Clearly, you're excited about the region, but kind of what the impact of the change in government might have.
We don't know. I mean, we are used to this. I mean, we are operating in many. We are in 25 countries, and every once in a while, there are elections and there are changes and so on. But in the context of Mexico, I gave you the structural reasons why we do think that Mexico is gonna continue to prosper as an economy. And I believe I did give you the reasons of why we think in this environment, we will continue to do really well. But regarding the specific topic of elections, it's a continuity. It's the continuity of the previous government, as you all know. The same government formation is continuing with a new president, because there is a mandate rule.
You cannot go more than once, so the previous president has to leave it, and the new person has to come. So there's a new president, but the same government formation or the same government infrastructure. So in that sense, it is, it is a continuity. So for the long term, we have... All the things that I said are still valid, independent of the government environment. In the short term, there might be some impact, because in the short term, you might see a bit lower volumes. In the corporate commercial lending side, people would like to see, in these type of situations, a bit the future before they start investing. So long-term loans in corporate side might be a bit affected. But in the short term, our expectation is that the central bank would now be a bit more, a bit more hawkish.
They are already hawkish, but they might be even a bit more, because if there's some devaluation in Mexican peso, there might be even more of a hawkish tendency, which typically helps us. So in the short term, maybe some volume impact and—but which is gonna be even more compensated by the margin impact, because we are positively correlated with the rates. We have a positive rate sensitivity. In that sense, in the short term, we are not worried. In the long term, we are not worried. So, we have seen the Mexican banks going down tremendously in the last two days, our share price as well, Mexican peso getting hit for that. But again, some of the things that I mentioned, they are so powerful that you cannot deny them. Mexico is bound to grow. Mexico...
If, if you have a labor cost 1/4, 1/5 of the U.S., if U.S.-- and now it's basically equal to China, so there's not much difference between China and Mexico. If this is the case, how can you stop that current? How can you stop that idea that you are spending hundreds of millions dollar in the U.S. for, to manufacture something, and you're gonna have 1/5 of that in Mexico, in a trade agreement, which is basically no borders on the trade policy? You cannot deny that fact. You cannot deny the fact that the banking sector has to grow. You cannot deny the demographic dividend of Mexico. So to cut long story short, we don't know. I mean, in these type of situations, you have to wait and see how things pan out.
But if there is one thing that Mexico is focusing on, and we have seen this, and we have heard this very clear and loud in the campaign of the president who is elected, Claudia Sheinbaum, she and the government, they want to grow, they want to grow the economy. And to grow the economy, you need to have the banks with you, because the leverage, again, in Mexico is so low, that you have to inject some leverage in the economy, in the right places, to grow the economy. And I think the government sees that. And then there has been a lot of discussions in the press. I'm reading for the last two days, this plan and that plan. I would really encourage all of you to look into the campaign period and what she said.
In the campaign period, she gave this message of continuity, and continuity is good for us. And, and, and again, the structural factors around this is so powerful that I don't expect anything negative coming out of it, despite what the market has been telling us in the last two days.
I think that brings us to the end of our time slot. I wanted once again, Onur, to say thank you. I know you're incredibly busy right now, so we really do appreciate you taking the time out to meet with investors here at the conference. Thank you.
Thank you to all of you. Thank you for coming.