Bankinter, S.A. (BME:BKT)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2022

Oct 20, 2022

Speaker 2

Good morning, and welcome to Bankinter Q3 earnings presentation. As usual, our CFO, Jacobo Díaz, will start with our remarks on the figures, and we will follow up with a Q&A session afterwards. Thank you.

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

Good morning, and welcome to this presentation of Bankinter's earnings for the Q3 of 2022. As always, the related financial statements were posted on the website of the CNMV a few minutes ago. All related documents can also be found at this time on the Bankinter corporate website. The Bankinter group again has been able to close a very strong quarter, and therefore, a very good performance in the nine months ended September 30, and clearly ahead of our plans at the beginning of the year. 2022 so far has been one of the most complex of recent years, with continued macroeconomic uncertainties caused by the difficult geopolitical situation that provoke, among other things, a hyper-inflationary environment across all countries, and the need of central banks to raise rates more and faster than anyone could predict only a few months ago.

All this had different effects and scenarios that impacts our business in a major way, some of them positive and some negative, that we will analyze during this presentation. What we can see very clear is that the group's commercial performance remained strong during one more quarter, despite the summer seasonality, as it is reflected in balance sheet growth, as well as in our operating income and pre-provision profit figures. Our main highlights of the first nine months have been a group net profit close at EUR 430 million, showing a 21% increase or EUR 75 million more than a year ago, more than compensating EUR 40 million Línea Directa Aseguradora regular contribution in 2021. Return on equity keeps at 11.6%, quite an improvement over 2020 and 2021 performance.

Interest rates, as well as volumes, contributed to solid growth of our net interest income, supported by a strong customer activity that keeps growth in loans and deposits. This is the main contributor of the operating income growth of 7% year-over-year. Thanks to this growth, income efficiency remains low and under control as of September, bringing pre-provision profit to EUR 863 million, an improved 8% growth over September 2020. With maintained asset quality and solvency indicator, flat NPLs and coverage of provisions from December 2021 and CET1 ratio at comfortable levels above our long-term guidance of 11.5%. Here is a brief comparison of the first nine months on our key financial indicators.

Group's total loan book continued to grow by 10% to reach EUR 73 billion, thanks to maintained corporate, consumer finance, and mortgage demand, where we had a slowdown in Spain mortgage production more than offset by other geographies and EVO Banco. Gross operating income at EUR 1.5 billion grew by 7% with respect to September 2021, showing the strong resilience in the incomes coming from the business, net interest income, and fees. After a new trend of cost increase due to the strong operating behavior, we have been able to improve the already good efficiency, allowing PPP to improve the rate of growth to 8% year-on-year from 6% the previous quarter. NPL ratio shows improvement in line with asset quality indicator and loan growth, despite the complex economic situation.

It dropped again by 0.3 percentage points to a low of 2.10% in September. Coverage ratio keeps increasing year-on-year to 65%. Profit before taxes on a like-for-like comparison, that means only the banking activity before the extraordinary discounted operations in 2021, went up by 36% over last year to EUR 602 million. Group net profit reached EUR 430 million, a 21% increase from a year ago. Again, not taking into consideration the extraordinaries of the Línea Directa spin-off. Capital ratio came at 11.90%, very comfortably above our long-term guidance of 11.5%, despite market valuation adjustments again in this quarter.

The return on equity maintained 11.6%, a relevant improvement from previous year, and clearly ahead of the cost of capital for the industry. Following the agenda, first our nine months and Q3 results, then risk management, to end with a review of the different businesses. Our income statement is starting to show different trends in the main lines of revenue, net interest income, and fee income. On one hand, net interest income now shows a very positive trend, mainly due to volume increase and the accelerated yield repricing of our loan book. This is reflected in the quarterly client margin improvement, as we will see later. NII is up a strong 12% from the first nine months of 2021.

On the other hand, fee income shows some slowdown of the growth rate to 2.2% with respect to the previous year due to the extraordinary fees of EUR 45 million booked in the Q3 last year and a continued reduction in the asset under management balances during 2022. Other operating income and expenses became almost negligible as we will disclose in the next slide, due to a combination of EUR 73 million in trading income and dividends, and EUR 74 million of negative regulatory or cost charges. Other expenses were compensated by the incomes from the equity method. The total gross operating income, basically the addition of NII plus fees, went to EUR 1.5 billion, up 7% from 2021.

At the same time, the quality of incomes remained very high geographically, with an increased contribution from Portugal of EUR 133 million. In Ireland, Avant Money contribution of EUR 58 million. In Spain, Evo contribution of EUR 30 million from last year. Finally, the Luxembourg contribution of EUR 14 additional million. Group's total cost grew by 5% in the first nine months, mainly from personal expenses up due to the accrual of performance incentives in this strong operating income year. At the same time, general expenses went up by 4.9%, showing a good control in overall expenses in the current inflationary environment. Despite the start of this inflationary cost increase and thanks to the relevant growth in our incomes, the group keeps improving its efficiency ratio.

The increased income above the cost performance allow pre-provision profit to improve the rate of growth to 8% from a year ago, showing a strong upward trend. Loan loss and other provisions are down 27% from 2021. Cost of risk allowances of EUR 177.73 million are down 8% from 2021, maintained below our guidance of cost of risk for the year. Other provisions of EUR 75 million in the period are more than 52% below last year. Again, within our guidance for this type of provisions. After the expected reduction in provisions, profit before tax stands at EUR 602 million, or 36% above 2021. The EUR 159 million increase of our PBT more than triple last year pre-tax profits coming from Línea Directa recurrent activity of EUR 40 million.

After taxes, the group posted net profit of EUR 430 million, 21% above last year. Again, excluding the extraordinaries from Línea Directa spin-off. On a quarterly comparison also, we can compare the different evolution of the lines of income. While net interest income posted growth of 16% quarter-on-quarter and 27% year-on-year, fee income is falling by 5% quarter-on-quarter, and by 16% year-on-year due to the extraordinaries of 2021. Operating income grew by 20% over the previous quarter and by 9% year-on-year at a remarkable performance that allow operating costs to increase by 3% quarter-on-quarter, and by 6% over the same quarter last year. Thanks to this good proportion, pre-provision profit grew by 35% quarter-on-quarter and 11% year-on-year.

After lower credit risk provisions, profit before taxes of banking activity grew 43% in the quarter, and 47% with respect to the same quarter of 2021. Finally, quarterly net profit came at EUR 159 million, up 36% from previous one and 44% or EUR 49 million from the same quarter, 2021 on a like for like basis. Moving into the balance sheet. The group's total loan book grew by 10.3% from a year ago, bringing EUR 6.8 billion in loan growth to reach almost EUR 73 billion. Growth in the quarter, as always happens in Q3, was only EUR 0.5 billion, coming mainly from our mortgage business, EUR 0.6 billion up. This is including EVO Banco in Spain, Portugal, and Ireland's solid performance.

Our consumer finance business grew by EUR 0.2 billion, and the corporate banking, where loan demand was stagnant during the summer season, showed a small decrease by EUR 0.2 billion. Despite this summer season in Spain, lending growth maintained the patterns from previous quarter. Total loan book grew by 6.7% year-on-year, well over the 1.8% for the sector as of August 2022, bringing market share increases in both household and corporate loans. In Portugal, lending is up by 13%, with an additional EUR 786 million from last December or 11% in line with our business plan for the year. Our retail deposits continue to perform strongly in all geographies at 10.4% year-on-year growth or EUR 7 billion, reaching EUR 76.3 billion of total retail deposits.

Moving on to the NII. Net interest income now has started to show a very positive trend due to the steepness of the interest rate curve and the impact on the yield repricing in our loan books. Mortgages in a small proportion, two or three 12th, more or less, but particularly in the corporate loan book. Also, the telcos increased their contribution from the very stable EUR 12 million in previous quarter to EUR 22 million in this one. All this together with loan book growth has made net interest income to grow almost 16% over previous quarter and 27% from same quarter a year ago. In Portugal, NII grew by 17% with respect to previous quarter and by 40% with respect to the same quarter. The contribution of Avant Money to our net interest income continued to grow.

It contributed EUR 21 million to the group's NII this quarter versus EUR 13 million the same quarter last year. Same happens with Evo. The NII contribution has been EUR 10 million this quarter versus seven year ago, which is 47% increase. This important improvement here, our net interest income during the quarter is mainly driven by an improvement in our customer margin together with a loan book growth in the year. Customer margin improved by 15 basis points from last quarter, thanks to 21 basis points increase in credit yields and 6 basis points increase in cost of deposit, marking the Q2 of 2022 the starting point of the customer margin expansion.

Cost of deposits increased by 6 basis points in the quarter, has only to do with the wholesale and currency funding, since the customer deposit cost continues at minimum and with no signs of change for the moment. For next quarter, we will continue to see a positive repricing of yields on the mortgage-backed book and on the corporate loan book with 12-month reference rate. All this together with the increase in mortgage fixed rates and growing corporate and consumer lending activity at higher rates, makes clear to us a very positive trend of the net interest income going forward. In this new slide, we have share information about the TLTROs. The TLTRO, the total taken remains at EUR 14.2 billion.

As you see, they will start amortizing EUR 2.5 billion in December and then following a calendar shown in the left chart till the final amortization on June 2024. Let me remind you that we have been accounting or registering the TLTRO income at a blended or accrued rate, always trying to maintain a conservative approach to avoid any step down in 2023 and 2024. Therefore, during this Q3, we took an even more conservative approach, adapting the TLTRO's income to the forward yield curve shown in the chart after ECB rate hike expectation. Thus, the impact of TLTRO's income in our NII has been reduced accordingly and will be zero after Q1 2023. At the same time, the net margin contribution will be incrementally positive with the new interest earned in the redeposit of the funds at the ECB account.

Moving into the ALCO portfolio. The ALCO portfolio showed some increase in the period of EUR 500 million approx, to a total of EUR 10.8 billion. As of the end of September, most of the portfolio sits under amortized cost with no impact in capital ratio, and only EUR 1.6 billion remains in the fair value portfolio. Its composition remains unchanged, with the Spanish government bonds being 52% of total, other sovereigns, 26%, and the rest, mainly corporate bonds. Other features of the portfolio improved in the quarter with now an average maturity of 8.5 years, average duration of 5.4 years, and an average yield of, at 1.6%.

After another quarter with volatile bond markets, the small portion of our fair value portfolio will impact negatively our CET1 ratio similar to the previous one, as we will see in the capital section later. Moving into fee income. Fee income perform in line with our guidance during the period despite seasonality and lower assets under management fees. Thus fee income was EUR 8 million below the previous quarter, but it continued to show growth of 12% over the same quarter last year, excluding the EUR 45 million extraordinary contribution from investment banking. Fee income, main contributor continues to be fees from asset under management despite lower volumes due to a very negative market effect in the year. Despite this, we're able to show some growth.

Other fees, more related to corporate activity continue to grow strongly and were enough to post growth of total fees by 2.2% over a year ago, 14% excluding last year extraordinaries. Asset management fees, 33% of total fees still grows by 4%. The continued commercial activity during all the period helped to offset the market volatility by keeping net inflows in positive. The strong market effect, north of EUR 6 billion, make our assets under management to end EUR 1.7 billion below those at the end of the first nine months of 2021. The second contributor to fees is payment and collections from corporate and individuals. Activity during the summer has remained strong, and they have been growing by 30% over 2021.

Stable insurance and pension fund sales bring fees up 9%, and we expect this line to improve considering our new bancassurance agreement with Liberty Seguros and their business plan in the future. In other operating income and expenses, here we disclose the main components. EUR 73 million of trading income and dividends, showing a small decrease of 7%. Other financial income from equity method, EUR 31 million, an increase of EUR 7 million thanks to Bankinter Vida, good evolution. The largest negative is EUR 74 million in regulatory charges, showing a 24% increase in the Single Resolution Fund contribution this year. Finally, other expenses totaling EUR 30 million or EUR 12 million more than a year ago, mainly due to growth in prescription fees in our consumer finance business. Moving into cost.

Gross operating income for the first period stood at EUR 1.5 billion, an increase of almost 7% from a year ago. Although quarterly comparison is not relevant since the EVO contribution is only in the Q2, we can see growth over the previous quarter and 9% increase over the Q3 of 2021. Portugal and Ireland and Evo have been increasing their contribution to the group's operating income. The first grew by 16%, the second 37%, and the third, Evo, by 42%, following their business plan to become profitable as soon as possible. Moving into costs. Group operating costs in the first nine months totaled EUR 655 million, up 4.9%, EUR 7 million and 3% from previous quarter.

Operating costs from Evo were up only by 2.6% and Avant Money by 24%, or growing by EUR 6 million from a year ago, when at the same time, incomes are growing at 37%. In Portugal, costs are up 5%, while the same period revenues grew by 16%. That means that all these business are improving their efficiency. Personal expenses are up 4.9% due to the accrual of performance incentives for the first nine months. General and administrative expenses, plus amortizations, also grew by 4.9%, and are somehow under control considering the actual hyperinflationary environment. Thus, our efficiency continues to improve quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year.

The Bankinter standalone ratio stands at 41.8%, and the group's cost to income as of September dropped 270 basis points to 45.3% on a 12-month rolling average. We continue to improve our operational efficiency in Portugal, now with cost to income ratio at 50%, and in Avant Money at 53%. Evo, in negative efficiency, it's improving very much, trying to get break even sooner than expected. With this positive evolution in income and cost, pre-provision profit for the first nine months show EUR 863 million, or up 8% from 2021, and 24% from 2020. A very strong performance, thanks to our customer business and geographies.

Cost of risk in the quarter finished at 35 basis points of total credit exposure, bringing the year-to-date cost of risk at 32 basis points, a 5 basis points decrease from previous year. First nine months cost of risk ended with EUR 186 million, EUR 14 million less than a year ago due to the asset quality stabilization with an increased exposure. We continue to see no evidence of any negative impact in asset quality indicators after the end of the moratoria to individuals in Spain and Portugal and the ICO loans grace periods, as we will see in a bit. We expect this good behavior to continue during the last quarter of this year. We see cost of risk remaining around 35 basis points at year-end. Provisions for litigations continue to fall as predicted by a reduction of just over 50%.

We think that for the full 2022, we will keep a similar downward trend to be maintained at 10-15 basis points of total risk, 13 basis points in this quarter. Our profit before taxes of the banking activity reaches EUR 602 million, growing 36% over a year ago, and almost four times of 2020. Group net income of the recurring business for the first nine months reached EUR 430 million, up 25.21% from a year ago, including the recurring contribution from Línea Directa, and almost two times from that reported of the H1 of 2020, including EUR 105 million from Línea Directa in that year. Regarding return on equity, we maintain a stunning 11.6%. That clearly outperforms that on years 2021 and 2020, including the recurring contribution of Línea Directa.

We expect this trend to continue towards achieving the highs of 2019 return on equity soon, and improvement. Excluding our small intangibles, the group's ROTE is at 12.3%. We're moving to the management of risk, liquidity and solvency. Non-performing loans continue their small downward trend despite the difficult and unknown economic cycle. Total NPLs went down by EUR 55 million from September 2021. These include approximately EUR 90 million annual NPL sale in consumer finance and Portugal. With respect to last December NPLs, we are just up EUR 19 million, out of a total of EUR 1.7 billion. Growth in NPLs in the year came to EUR 19 million, coming mainly from our consumer finance business in Spain.

The group's NPL is reduced again to 2.10%, the lowest point since 2008, and 30 basis points lower from a year ago, mainly due to stable NPLs figures while increasing the loan book and the sale of NPLs in business like consumer finance in Portugal. In Spain, NPLs stands at 2.3%, 20 basis points below a year and flattish from last December. This ratio continues to be way down from the industry average of 3.85%, which is data from July. In Portugal, the NPL ratio remained at 1.3% with only EUR 110 million of NPLs. As shown in the chart on the right, the NPL ratio in Spain went down to 1.8% for households, and for corporates came down 20 basis points to 2.7%.

The total provision for non-performing assets keeps increasing to EUR 1.2 billion, 2% increase. All this had an impact on our provision coverage, which now reaches 65%, up 4% from a year ago, 4 points. The coverage for foreclosed assets were also improved to 55%, a 7% increase, and clearly above the average discount on our sold assets. As you see here, the group's foreclosed assets portfolio has come down by 25% from a year ago, or EUR 47 million. The portfolio now accounts for only EUR 137 million. Asset sales in the period amount to EUR 54 million. We sell almost all our repossessed assets through our commercial network, with an average discount of 39%, clearly below their provision coverage of 45%. Moving into capital. Capital ratio stands at 11.90 basis points.

This is 5% more than a quarter ago. Since last December, our return earnings brings an increase of 55 basis points, taking into consideration the accrual of dividends of 50% of payout. Capital consumption of risk-weighted assets has been 27 basis points due to growth in the loan book. Other small items, plus the IRB deficit reduction, brings a positive of 14 basis points in the entire period. All this bring our CET1 ratio before market adjustment to 12.46%, almost 12.5%. These valuation adjustments since December has been -57 basis points, and this is due to the ALCO and the investment portfolio impacted by market volatility. Our ALCO portfolio during this quarter contributes with -5 basis points. The impact in the insurance portfolio from a Línea Directa participation accounts for -15 basis points in this quarter.

Taking all this into consideration, our CET1 ratio stands at 11.90%, well ahead of our minimum requirements, one of the lowest in Europe. Total capital ratio remain at 15.2, very comfortable level. Leverage ratio at 4.24, increasing from the last quarter. Finally, the 21.3% ratio for MREL, which remain well ahead of the 18.7% requirement of 2022. Moving to the next slide. Increases in customer deposits keeps our funding gap in negative territory from -EUR 3.9 billion a year ago to -EUR 4.5 billion commercial gap as of September. This negative gap in Spain more than offsets the gaps coming from other countries, both having higher lending growth than deposits.

Loan-to-deposit ratio remains record levels of 94.2% from 94%, while keep growing our loan book above the market average, but at the same time with consistent growth in deposits over the last few years. Let's move on into the following section. Let's review the main business lines. The corporate loan book in Spain and Portugal grew by 11.5% year-on-year. That is over EUR 3.2 billion net growth in 12 months. This increased 11.1% in Spain, while the sector now grows at 3.3%, data from August. This growth, it started in the Q1 of the year and was increased strongly during the second, mainly in working capital facilities, funding or financing, the pick-up internal demand and probably some anticipation of financing needs ahead of an interest rate increase.

In Spain, in this Q3, loan book decreased by EUR 4.2 billion- EUR 28.4 billion. Despite this impact, we keep increasing our market share to 5.9% from 5.5% a year ago. Loan growth from December 2021 has been different depending on the segments, 12% in large corporates, 3% in mid corporates, and just 4.7% in SMEs. Total ICO loans with the state guarantee as of September 2022 were at EUR 6.1 billion. Only 40% of them had extended maturity or grace period. Our ICO loan portfolio showed only 2.9% NPL ratio. In addition, about 7% of them became Stage 2.

Some indicators of the strong commercial activity in corporates during the first nine months are the loan production, 40% up from a year ago. Incomes from corporate transactional volumes, which is related to working capital facilities, 41% up. Then the corporate activity, which is very high, very strong, is international banking, which is growing by 44% from a year ago to EUR 179 million. That's 27% of the total corporate banking income. Moving into wealth management. Net new patrimony from our customers keep growing on a continued commercial activity. Adding both patrimonial services, private and personal banking, assets under management grew by 7% in the year. The strong commercial activity during the year more than offset the negative market effect in the customer's patrimony in this difficult environment.

Total assets from customers in both segments at EUR 81.6 billion as of September, which is down by EUR 1.1 billion from June 2022, or a small 1% decrease. Moving to retail. The activity into retail banking has remained strong. Salary account balances continue to grow. They are up 15% from a year ago, totaling EUR 16.6 billion. Mortgage origination in the period of EUR 5.1 billion was 19% above of the last year, despite the slowdown in Spain, that was more than offset by the increased contribution of Ireland, of Portugal, and of Evo. In Spain, our market share in new mortgages remain at 6.9% as of August 2022, coming down from last year as a result of the increase in the rates in our fixed rate mortgages.

With more profitability and with better quality, since only 43% of mortgages granted last month were fixed versus 66% a year ago. At a much higher rate, with an average loan-to-value in the mid-60s. Despite this change in behavior in Spain, total mortgage backbook keep growing at 9% and reach EUR 33.4 billion. In Bankinter Spain will remain growing at 1.6%, while the rest of the market now grows at 1.3%. Moving into asset management business. This business suffered from market volatility, particularly in third-party funds, while we keep growing year on year in our own mutual funds, those we manage in our assets under management company. Pension funds and SICAVs also suffer from the market's impact in the asset valuation.

Despite another difficult quarter of the year, assets under management from customers added to EUR 35.6 billion, only EUR 1.8 billion less than a year ago. In the case of our own managed mutual funds, net new money in the first nine months has been positive and able to offset the huge negative market effect, bringing the total mutual funds managed to EUR 10.6 billion, only EUR 400 million below 2021. Moving into Portugal. Loan book grew by 13% to EUR 7.7 billion. Retail funds grew to EUR 6.3 billion, 12% more. The growth in the loan book was in both corporates, up 18%, and in retail, 11% up. Off-balance-sheet, at EUR 3.8 billion, remained almost flat from June 2021 and down 9% year-over-year.

As of the income statement, operating income from the business grew by 16%, and cost shows a 5% increase in line with our plans for improving efficiency. All the above brings pre-provision profit up by a strong 30% over June 2021. Portugal profit before taxes post EUR 54 million, 33% increase from last year. There shows an efficiency ratio of 50.4%. Just bear in mind that it was 100% in 2016, not too far ago. Moving on to consumer finance. Consumer finance at the end of the quarter total EUR 5.2 billion, 56% up from a year ago, and with a new production of EUR 2.5 billion in the period, or 141% over the same period last year.

More than half of this growth is due to the Irish mortgage production. Without this specialized loan book, total loan book grew by 21% to EUR 3.7 billion euros. Geographically, the total loan book includes EUR 2.1 billion from Ireland Avant Money, growing by EUR 1.4 billion in the first nine months. Out of them, 1.2 is new mortgages. Three hundred and seventy-four million from Bankinter Portugal, growing EUR 83 million in the period. The rest, EUR 2.6 billion, is in Spain, where the loan book grew by EUR 400 million in the first nine months. Today, loan book has changed very much its risk profile, with now personal loans representing 47%, almost 50%, growing 33%.

Household mortgages in Ireland now represents 28% of the total loan book, growing by almost 5 x, and a market share of close to 10% in the new drawdowns in Ireland. Transactor credit cards outstanding represents 16% of total, with 10% growth, and revolving credit cards, now less than 7.8% of total, down by 8% in the year. We continue to feel very comfortable with asset quality. NPL ratios of September stands at 4.2% from 7.5% in 2021. Provision coverage at 93, and cost of risk at 2.4%, much below 3.7% a year ago.

Moving into Avant Money, it is remarkable that since they have started the household mortgage lending business in 2020, they have been able to reach 8.5% of the new mortgage production in the H1 of 2022, just one year after the launch. During these first months of the year, the new production came at EUR 1.2 billion. This new activity, together with a recovery of the consumer finance, where personal loans have grown by EUR 109 million or 40% in the period, and credit card outstanding growing at 18%.

All of this has made the loan book to increase by almost 2.7x in a year and, at the same time, improve their very good asset quality ratio, now at 0.4% NPLs with a very low cost of risk of 0.9%. Finally, EVO. At EVO, the new mortgage granted from December were EUR 727 million. This is 33% more than the origination of last year's first nine months, making total loan book to grow to EUR 2.4 billion, up 47%. Subsequently, net interest margin jumps by 34%. Consumer and personal loans came slightly up to EUR 86 million, growing 31% from a year ago and represents 3.4%.

As for liabilities, EVO has EUR 3.8 billion in retail deposits, up 4%, and EUR 246 million in off-balance sheet funds, which includes investment funds of EUR 134 million. Client acquisition has been over 39,000 in the period, for a total of 711,000 customers. Management ratios, NPL ratio stands at 0.58%, and cost of risk EUR 2.3 million. In P&L terms, the EUR 30 million operating income is still not enough to cover the EUR 41 million of operating expenses in the period. Thanks to a very low cost of risk, it shows losses of only EUR 14 million. Here we bring some new indicators of our 3D ESG plan, a strategic and transversal plan with specific actions and targets to be developed.

A résumé of measures taken in relation to the bank's ESG environmental performance in the quarter are in the environment dimension. After ending the climate stress test performed by the ECB ahead of the average Spanish banks, we are now involved in our decarbonization strategy. In the social dimension, some measures have been taken to improve digital accessibility for the web and mobile apps. Also within the social dimension, new programs on financial education have been implemented. On the governance dimension, we continue to follow the good governance code with one of the highest percentage of women in the board of directors, 45.5%, as well as independent members, 54.5%. We're coming to an end. A brief recap.

High quality set of management ratios, return on equity 11.6%, efficiency 45.3%, NPL 2.1%. Very strong commercial activity with a remarkable growth in loans and deposits over the previous year. Maintained a comfortable asset quality and service indicators, very strong buffer from regulatory requirements, and fine financial performance that more than offset previous NII. After finishing or closing a very successful first nine months in commercial activity, income performance and asset quality, and in view of an increasing complexity in the macro-scenario going forward, I will try to provide to all of you our revised guidance for the full year 2022. If you don't mind, we will keep the 2023 guidance for the last and final 2022 quarter. First of all, loan growth.

I think the loan growth will remain high till the end of the year in all geographies. While the mortgage lending slowdown in Spain, particularly in fixed-rate, will most probably be translated to other markets, Ireland, Portugal, and EVO Banco in Spain. In Bankinter Spain, we expect for the rest of 2022 that the corporate loan book and the consumer finance activity will end the year with this current growth. More difficult will be to predict how 2023 will look like on these two businesses. We prefer to wait until next quarter to provide you a better guidance on those. What is clear to us is that with the new and steep interest rate curve, net interest income will show solid growth thanks to the loan book repricing.

This will make our NII income to grow by double-digit more than the previous mid-single-digit guidance that we have for this year. The increased activity with corporates and individuals will continue to support fee income. Assuming stable markets for the remaining of the year of mutual funds, we believe all this should provide support to keep fee income ahead of last year and even grow by low- to mid-single-digit, slightly below what we predicted at the beginning of the year. Taking into consideration the EUR 45 million extraordinary fees of last year, fee income maintains a very strong performance anyway. It's clear that the group cost growth, although with some upward pressure from inflation, will remain under control and under income growth for the rest of the year, improving the group actual current efficiency levels.

Pre-provision profit will grow approaching double digit. Cost of risk is expected to continue under control. We expect to be in the entire year, again, around our guidance of 35 basis points, while keeping a very strong, prudent approach to unexpected or adverse events in the last quarter, as economic slowdown and inflation pressures might impact the real economy. Now I'll be happy to take your questions. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you again, Jacobo. Let's probably start with if you can just comment on the changes to the 2022 guidance. Just the changes. You just went through all the guidance on NII and P&L. Thank you.

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

The changes are on the net interest income that we have increased our guidance to a double-digit growth from a single digit growth. We have reduced a little bit our guidance on fees from a mid-single digit to a low-to-mid single digit.

Speaker 2

Excellent, thank you. We have plenty of questions on NII, as you would expect, given the performance in the quarter. Let's get on it. NII growth. Could you break down the NII growth in the quarter? Are there any one-offs?

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

Okay. First of all, there is no one-off, no single extraordinary items in the NII. In the quarter, the growth in NII is concentrated in the growth in income of the corporate loan book, the growth in income of the mortgages, and the growth in income from the TLTRO programs. The largest impact comes from the corporate loan book. The corporate loan book, just bear in mind that there is a large component of the corporate loan book, which is a variable rate related. Around 65% of our loan book is linked to variable rates. Bear in mind that since the first period of this quarter, Euribor rates were close to 1% or 0.91%, and today we are at 2.6%.

There's been a very sharp increase during the month of August. The month of August has started at 1%, and it ends up almost at 2 point something. Therefore, the book, the corporate banking book repriced much, much faster, either because our variable rate that reprice immediately, or either because there are, working capital facilities with short-term of, 30 days, 60 days, 90 days. Therefore, the repricing has been very, very strong. I would say more or less than, out of the EUR 55 million of increase in this quarter, I would say that around 20, 25, 30 comes from the corporate banking book, 15-20 comes from the mortgage book, and 10 comes from the TLTRO, as you've seen in the slide.

Basically, there is, in the quarter, these are the impacts, which is quite rate related and TLTRO related. Comparing year-on-year, there is a very strong growth, I remind you, of 10% of the loan book that has grown.

Speaker 2

Thank you. What is the outlook for the coming quarters given the repricing trend that we are seeing?

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

Okay. This is the reason why we have updated or increased our guidance. We do expect that the corporate loan book reprices faster than the mortgage book, but bear in mind that the mortgage book is repricing also with very high levels of income, increasing our client margin. This is something that takes, as you know, maybe 18 months, maybe 24 months until the full book is fully repriced. Once again, we come from Euribor rates that used to be at -0.50%, and now we are living with Euribor rates, which are at 2.5% or 2.50%. That means almost 300 basis points repricing impact that we will see in the next 18 to 24 months. Therefore, there is a positive trend.

Regarding the trend in TLTRO, I think I had to explain a little bit in the presentation. Basically, what you see is that we were using the accrued recording of the cost of the TLTROs. We have been as prudent as we tend to be in other topics. We do expect that potential income, additional income comes basically from the remuneration of the amount at the ECB account, while the income from the TLTRO itself now has come to an end.

Speaker 2

Okay. On the TLTRO topic, what is your view on the outcome for TLTRO on excess deposit remuneration that could be announced by the ECB in coming weeks? The TLTRO on excess deposit remuneration, the conditionality that might be changed by the ECB, what is your view there?

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

I mean, of course, we don't have an opinion. I don't think that changing the rules in the middle of the game might be a good idea. I think that changing the rules of the game will oblige banks to make, I would say, non-forecasted business decisions. There might be decisions to use the extra liquidity to put into new projects. I think it's too early to know or to understand what the ECB is thinking about this, but I don't think it's a good idea to change the rules in the middle of the game. I think that TLTRO has been a very good program to incentivize funding and liquidity in the real economy.

I think that was the main goal. I think that goal has been achieved, and I think that's been a very good program. It's been a very useful tool, has helped to maintain the flow of resources into the banking sector to the real economy. I think any change will affect certainty and credibility of the tool, and I don't think that this might be a good idea.

Speaker 2

Thank you. What are we expecting from the TLTRO contribution in coming quarters?

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

Okay, as I did mention, the TLTRO that used to be an income is not an income anymore, since we have used the expected ECB rates that we have shared with you our own expectations. Therefore from that side, there is no additional contribution. However, the contribution will come now from those resources allocated at the ECB rates.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Given that we are using that ECB terminal rate, deposit facility rate at 2.25%, are we using that rate also to forecast 2023 and 2024's NIIs? Is that your base case scenario?

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

Interest rates are changing with expected ECB's rates changing every week. I don't know, with a lot every week. It's difficult to predict what will be the figure for the coming quarters. Of course, as this is the rate that we think they can be a reality, but honestly, we haven't been able to forecast properly rates in the past quarters. I wouldn't be so sure that these can be the rates in the future. They might be higher, but we don't know.

Speaker 2

Okay, any updates on our rate sensitivity, given that we are already seeing an increase on our NII, Q3 on Q1 of 25%?

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

I think the rate sensitivity is clear. That we mentioned that every 100 basis points should be around 10-15 increase in NII in the following 12 months. This is a rule that's still applying properly. I think there is no change in the rate sensitivity. You know that our mortgage book has 70% of variable rate. You know that our corporate banking book is around 60-65 variable rate. These are the figures.

Speaker 2

Thank you. We also have a question on how much what percentage of the ALCO portfolio and also the fixed rate mortgages are swapped to floating rates?

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

Yes, I did mention that it was not a very relevant amount. It was around less than 5% of the total book. Yes, it's around EUR 2 billion, EUR 2.5 billion.

Speaker 2

Any targets in terms of ALCO portfolio size?

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

No. You know that we have a reference, which is around 2 x our equity. You just bear in mind that our equity is around EUR 5 billion, so we are now at 10.8. I mean, potential increases are, again, as I mentioned in the past, should be very, very small.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Also, we have the question on how much of the balance sheet has repriced already at current rates.

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

We mentioned that, regarding the mortgage book, I would say that probably 2/12 or 3/12 of the book has been already repriced. Bear in mind, with the rates of July and the rates of August, now August has been a very strong month in this, in Euribor increase of rates of around 150 basis points. The repricing of the following 12 months is gonna be again quite high. Regarding the corporate loan book, I would say that probably half of the book has already repriced, as it repriced much faster than the mortgage book.

Speaker 2

Okay. In terms of customer deposits, can you explain what are we seeing in the quarter? What are you expecting in terms of deposit beta, customers moving towards term deposits, et cetera?

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

For the time being, there is no signal or deposit remuneration. With current ECB rates is still at 0.75%, which is still a very low level. For the time being, no news on this side.

Speaker 2

Thank you. In terms of loan demand, what are your views there? What are we seeing? Any slowdown in the mortgage book, in the new production?

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

As I mentioned, the mortgage demand in Spain has been slowing down since we were the first to increase rates in our mortgage commercial offer. Therefore, the demand is lower than previous quarter. We are applying the same policy of increasing rates in different geographies and different businesses. Potentially there will be a reduction in the demand of mortgages in all the geographies during the period until the rest of the competition adapts to new high prices or new high rates in the fixed rate mortgages. We do expect this is just some months of a slowdown in the demand.

For the rest of the business, we have no change, or we don't have a different vision on the level of growth in the corporate book or in the consumer finance book. It's just on the mortgage demand, just, you know, based on the increase, on the sharp increase of interest rates.

Speaker 2

Also, we've been asked whether we have any targets for loan growth in Ireland and Portugal, and also whether we can analyze or put some color to the new production of mortgages in Ireland.

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

Again, as we are increasing rates in all of geographies, we do expect lower rates of growth in all these geographies regarding the mortgage business. Regarding the rest of the business, we are still with similar assumptions of growth, yeah, of the activity. We see that corporate activity is still strong and the consumer finance activity is still strong, so there is no reason why we should change our views on those businesses.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Can you explain what is the guidance for cost growth expenses?

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

As you know, we have the mantra that the increase of cost is always below the increase of income. So this is our main guidance. As you can imagine, we are under the same inflationary pressures that anybody else. We do our best to keep under control our cost. I think the figure that we're seeing today of +5% shouldn't change until the end of the year. If it changed, it will be, you know, minimum changes. I think this is our view for the coming months. We don't know yet for 2023. It's still a little bit soon to really understand the impacts on other topics or based on inflation. For the time being, the current levels of growth should be similar at the end of the year.

Speaker 2

Thank you. On credit quality, are we seeing any signs of deterioration? Also, any reasons to explain the growth in a Stage 2, and what are your expectations for cost of risk going forward?

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

Yes. We haven't seen any single indicators that make us concerned about credit risk. This is a reality, and we've shared with you the Evo volumes and the Evo NPLs and the Evo Stage 2, so nothing has changed since last quarter, and we do not have any new indicator. Regarding the Stage 2, this is something that we changed in the Q2 of the year, and I did mention that we changed some parameters of our internal models that makes more restricted the harder minimum level to become Stage 2. The volume of Stage 2 has increased, but not the cost of risk related to this change. It's just a change in the models. It's not a change in the delinquency levels of the NPL levels.

Speaker 2

Thank you. In terms of risk-weighted assets, can you explain the decline in the quarter despite the loan growth?

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

Yes. Normally every quarter this is a seasonal effect. We do have a reduction in some in the mix of the growth of the loan book. The Q3 in Spain normally has a negative seasonality. In this quarter, we have really grown a little bit, but basically in products like mortgages with a much lower consumption than others. We have decline in some products that have a higher consumption, like corporate banking, and being compensated with others which with low capital consumption. This is the only unique effect.

Speaker 2

Thank you. Any news, or any, about the new tax on banks, and any estimates from potential impact?

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

No. For the time being, we're still waiting for a detailed text that can provide us more views on how this tax will be implemented. Unfortunately, and sorry for this, but I cannot share with you more information because we don't have the detail of this new tax.

Speaker 2

Okay. Any comments on the Línea Directa's take?

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

No. No comments. We're fine with Línea Directa.

Speaker 2

Also, very much on the news these days, any comments on the new mortgage proposal, refinancing for households? Any impact estimates?

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

No. We are happy to support any client with potential difficulties. We have always support our clients in trying to meet their commitments. Anyway, I think this measure will have a limited impact in our business as the level of the type of clients of our institution is different with tends to have a medium to high net income and large wealth. We don't think that our clients could be in the position of meeting this criteria. Even though any client that might need a support or might need a change because of interest rates, of course, we are very prudent in our credit policies, credit risk policies, and we'll review everything in order to make sure that our clients meet their commitments without problems.

Speaker 2

Couple of more questions on asset quality. Can you comment on the NPLs on the Evo loan book, and also whether we have any changes on the COVID reserves overlays, I guess?

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

Okay. Regarding the ICO loan, we still have an NPL of 2.9%, which is very stable, and similar levels of Stage 2, around 7%-8%. Nothing has changed there. Even the behavior of that part of the book that had grace period, the figures are exactly similar to the entire loan book. No changes. Regarding the overlay provision, no news. The same similar level. Nothing has changed even with the new macro scenario.

Speaker 2

Okay. Two final questions, promise.

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

No, no.

Speaker 2

Is the collective agreement being reviewed for banks?

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

No, no. As far as I know, nothing has been signed. We have no news on that yet.

Speaker 2

Last question. Do we reiterate the EUR 550 million net profit for 2023, including the new tax impact?

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

This is a commitment, and we're sticking to that commitment for next year.

Speaker 2

Excellent. Thank you, Jacobo. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today.

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Obviously, the investor relations team is at your disposal for any further information. Goodbye.

Jacobo Díaz
CFO, Bankinter

Thank you very much, and hope to see you soon. Bye-bye. Take care.

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