CaixaBank, S.A. (BME:CABK)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2020

Oct 30, 2020

Speaker 1

Hello, good morning, and welcome to Cascia Bank's results presentation for the Q3 of 2020. Today, it will be Jaz Contalo Bortazar, CEO and myself Javier Pano, the CFO, presenting. Edio Loghlen, our Head of Investor Relations, is away on sick leave but is recovering well and expected to return shortly. Otherwise, the format is the same as usual. We plan to spend around 30 minutes presenting with 45 minutes available for live Q and A, for which you should have received instructions via e mail.

Let me just add that the Investor Relations team is at your full disposal after this event. And without further ado, let me hand it over to the CEO.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Javier. Good morning, everybody, and thanks for your time. We'll I'll get directly into the result presentation for the quarter. Highlighting here 4 ideas in the quarter first, The recovery in activity and hence, the continuity in the market share Progress. Obviously, after the Q2, this was quite critical for us to make sure that the machinery regain speed Very quickly, and it has happened.

You see there how our market share and we're highlighting particularly long term savings and business lending, 1, because it's so much our core business and the other one is also our core business, and it's been quite critical in this year 2020. 2nd credit metrics, I have to say much more positive than what we were expecting. We have actually reduced Nonperforming loans quarter on quarter by 1.5%. Obviously, ratio is stable on that slight contraction that we have some seasonality in the Quarter of the total loan book. The cost of risk is lower in the quarter, obviously, because we actually did A major provisioning for COVID in the first and particularly the second quarter.

But I have to say, Given that this was a quarter in which most of our moratoria started to resume payment obligations, we were But let's make it clear, the Q3 has been, I would say, outstanding from this point of view. 3rd quarter revenue growth and Cost control, we have actually delivered a 3.1% reduction in costs compared to last year, so Pretty good level. And then on the core revenue side, we have pressure on NII. You've seen that, but we have been able to almost Completely offset that with good performance on fees and particularly on the insurance business. And this is obviously part of our Strength.

So we are confident, I would say quite confident that we will be achieving positive jaws in 2020. In terms of solvency, It's been a good quarter. We know we had some market headwinds associated to our equity stakes. But despite that, we actually have grown our CET1 and build after that our MREL buffer. So I'd say pretty good on that front as well.

Getting some detail on market share. You see how long term savings up 66 basis points, life risk insurance and a major Our performance in terms of premium versus the market and then on loan to business as well, Almost 100 basis points, in fact, not almost, but over 100 basis points of market share gain. We continue to increase the number Clients that we define as relational with 3 or more products with us. So things are working well despite the very difficult situation we had. In terms of the activity, we're sharing here our statistics on credit card turnover, which are a good proxy for what's happening in Spain.

Obviously, Big reduction during the hard part of the lockdown in March, April, May and then and recovery Pretty fast towards similar levels to last year. But then in the last 2, 3 weeks, clearly, some weakness associated to the situation of the pandemic and other new restrictions that are being imposed. On loan production, we have households where we are on mortgages actually better than last year. Consumer, we have recovered a good level of activity compared to Q2, but we're still below last year. And I think it That makes sense in the current economic environment, and we want to be obviously prudent in this environment.

Long term savings, a pretty good Performance, as you can see in the Q3 compared to the Q2, almost as good as the first and better than the Q3. You all know that there's seasonality in the 3rd quarter, negative seasonality on activity. So the fact that we had this level of net inflows is a pretty good signal. And Protection Insurance, again, Comparing to last year is a major improvement also compared to Q2. So good Feelings about how we actually managed to recover activity quite quickly after the worst part of the lockdowns.

Nonperforming loans, I mentioned we reduced 1.5% in the quarter. We've maintained the 3.5%. And then out of our moratoria, we had 97% of the amount on the moratoria that has resumed payment. Sometimes it's partial payment or most of the times because we start with interest payments, not yet with Principal, but out of the Monactoria, only 3% are not up to date in terms of payments. So and obviously, of these 3%, it's just some of them will eventually be nonperforming loans, others May actually not, depending on the recovery process between sort of 0 90 days of default.

So Good feeling from that point of view and a good reduction of non performing loans actually across all lending segments. It's evident that there will be credit quality issues ahead of us. Let's not make any let's not have any doubt About that. But clearly, at this stage, where we are is much better than what we were expecting we would be at this stage. So I guess that part of the picture is pretty good.

In terms of the macro outlook, and Obviously, Javier will elaborate on all these, but we have basically a macro environment that is similar to the one that we had Expected at the end of the Q2. What we have done, and you see the dotted line blue and the sort of firm blue, The difference is basically that we were being more negative about 2020 I'm more positive about that recovery in 2021. And we are a bit less negative. And even after today's GDP number, we're clearly even less negative for 2020, but less optimistic for the recovery in 2021. So we're ending up basically at the same point at the end of 2021 than we were before, And that's really the driver for provisions.

And for that reason, the COVID sort of generic provision has not been changed. We did make a Great effort in the first half. And we've seen that the current macro forecast are consistent with that level. We've also put there some expectations by, for instance, the forecast of Bank of Spain give you an indication that we feel what we have done already is conservative. There's no question that the environment now as we speak and given what's happening in Europe and Spain should sort of move us to the side of even more cautiousness around what may happen in the Q4 2021.

That's why we're also pointing there what is our adverse case, which is obviously A very slow recovery in 2021. And the fact that we have also included that scenario Unweighted that scenario in our provisions gives us good comfort about where we are now in terms of provisioning level. You've seen that we had this Guidance of 60 to 90 basis points. In this Q3, not on an annualized basis, we've added 10 basis points, so we're at 63. I think we have to be quite confident at this stage that we are on track within that guidance.

We have two factors. 1 is performance in the 3rd quarter, which Makes us much more optimistic than we were. And at the same time, outlook for the Q4 2021, which make us more cautious at least for the time being. So we'll see depending on how these two things play, particularly the second one because the first one is a fact now, we will end up in one closer to one side of the range or more in the middle of it. Nonperforming loans coverage up To 65%, obviously, that indicates the provision that we have built for future problems.

Other pretty good news From the quarter is the jaws. You see we had good drivers of Comparison in terms of core revenues and recurring costs. Core revenues, obviously, positive in the quarter, but negative year on year, but Significant much more significant reduction in cost of 3.1%, which shows, as you can see, in terms of Core operating income, so deducting the cost recurrent cost from core revenues, you see that we have actually managed to go back to positive jaws in these sort of three quarters, and we certainly expect to maintain that by the end of the year. Solvency, finally, I think a pretty good performance. You have Details here of significant organic capital generation.

The impact of Commercio, I have to say, this is a pro form a, but it has closed on the 1st October, so Today after the quarter end, so it's pretty hard number. And the accrual of dividends, which, as you know, Because of the current rules we have from the ECB, it's been done at 37% despite or sorry, at 43%, Despite the fact that we have said that our intention is to be with a payout that will not exceed 30%, assuming that the recommendation of the ECB is somehow lifted. On top of that, we had issued additional Tier 1 during the month of October. And this has increased notably our MDA buffer to that level of 458. Obviously, I have to Remind you what you know well, but is that we have one of the lowest SREP requirements among the large banks in Europe for good reasons.

I think our risk profile is obviously much reduced compared to others. And hence, our absolute levels of capital compared to our SREP requirement gives us a very comfortable MTA buffer well above our targets and also obviously allows us to get into this merger project with Bankia from a position of strength. And I wanted to finish there. On the merger project, there's not News idea is that things are progressing well. Timetable is on track.

We'll have EGMs at the beginning of December. Our EGM is expected for the 3rd December, but we're still expecting to close during the Q1. And actually, we're now working also with an initial target of integrating all IT systems by the end of the year. And again, we have good spirit. There's quite a few things of preparing for the merger that we can do.

Obviously, there are others we cannot do until we have competition approval and then the transaction closes. But so far, so good. We're in the I think On the right track. Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Angelo. And let me now elaborate on the Q3. Let me start with an overview of the evolution of the loan book. You may see that in the Q3, the book is almost flat. Actually, it's improving considering seasonal impacts by 0.4%.

You know that year to date, what has been driving loan growth has been mainly the new origination of government warranted loans, But this demand has tapered during this Q3, €1,400,000,000 for a total balance of eco loans close to €12,000,000,000 We have had also good performance in the origination of mortgages and consumer loans this 3rd quarter. And with this year to date, our loan book is up by 6.5%. In the right hand side chart, you may see precisely this evolution The monthly evolution of the new production of mortgages and consumer loans, you may see that for mortgages, We are at the same level since the month of June, approximately compared to last year. And that in consumer lending, we are slightly below and considering current circumstances, but clearly improving from the trough we had in the 2nd quarter. Just a few words on the ALCO portfolio.

We have had maturities this 3rd quarter. Now the size of the book stands at slightly below €42,000,000,000 But the metrics of the portfolio remain broadly unchanged, the yield duration, Maturity profile and the sovereign exposure, you have here all the details, but as I say, no changes at all during the quarter. And on the customer funds, I would mention here that in the Q3, we have had lower inflows into on balance sheet deposits compared to what happened in the Q2. But we have had Inflows also into long term savings, €600,000,000 this 3rd quarter. This makes the total for the year €1,400,000,000 which we think it's a good result.

And also, this third quarter markets have helped to recover part of the losses. We recovered €2,000,000,000 thus making the negative mark to market impact for the year at €2,400,000,000 In the right hand side chart, you may see the evolution of our average AUMs. You may see that in the Q3, average AUMs are over the average of last year, approximately by 3% And also by the end of the period, we are over 3% over. So this will result or this bodes well for fee revenues on AUMs in coming quarters markets permitting. And with this, let me shift to the P and L.

Some brief comments, you have here all the details. I would say that better cost and also insurance and fee performance this 3rd quarter has led to an improvement in our provision profit. You may see that core revenues, as I say, supported by fees, up by 4.9% quarter on quarter and insurance up by 6% quarter on quarter is what has been driving this performance. Core revenues up quarter on quarter by 3.7%, still compared to last year, down by 1.1%. At the same time, we have a strong decline in expenses underpinned by restructuring, some lower pension liabilities and other saving initiatives.

And as a consequence of this, our core operating income improves significantly and year to date is up by 2.7%. Below the line, we have lower loan loss charges this 3rd quarter as was already our forecast as we you know that we built Strongly, this COVID reserve during the first half. And with this, we end the quarter with a net income at €522,000,000 a clear improvement compared to the pace of the previous two quarters. Some words on BPI. In this case, I would say that BPI has Strong support from resilient net interest income despite government loan scheme government guaranteed loan scheme That is smaller compared to the situation in Spain, but we have managed to grow the loan book in Portugal by 3.9% year to date and as you may see also with positive contribution from mortgages.

And also in Portugal, we have a reduction in NPLs as is the case in Spain, 6% year to date. And we have this Q3 a further release of the PPA that We built in 2017 with integration. And as a consequence of this, we have a positive contribution on this front this Q3 for a net attributable profit from BPI this Q3 at €55,000,000 Some more details now on the P and L. On NII, we are flattish this quarter, quarter on quarter and down by 2% year on year, in line with our initial expectations. You may see that from the client side, we have positive contribution from higher average loan volumes.

But on the other hand, this is more than offset by lower margins as the loan yield is impacted by the mix of the portfolio now with a larger wave of lower yielding eco loans. And on the ALCO activities, we have the positive contribution from the full take up of TLTRO III, but this is partially offset with a lower contribution from the fixed income portfolio as we have had those maturities and also the higher cost of carry from the growth in deposits we had during the Q2. As before mentioned, you may see that the back book yield comes down this quarter by 6 basis points to 192 basis points, but the new production the yield of the new production in the front book has clearly recovered and is up by 46 basis points as the mix is, I would say, normalized again. And the front book yield is now at 220 basis points. We are expecting that the 4th quarter net interest income will be in line with the levels of the 2nd and the 3rd quarter.

On fees, we have had a strong recovery quarter on quarter, up by 4.9% as commented before and year to date we are flat. We have had good performance across the different segments, I would say. In recurring banking fees, we are up by close to 10% quarter on quarter. We are still down year on year, in this case impacted by the less positive evolution of our payment business affected, obviously, in the Q3 by a weaker tourist season. In Asset Management, a clear improvement quarter on quarter up by more than 6%, also improvement year on year.

We commented before the positive evolution of average AUMs in insurance distribution improving quarter on quarter close to 5% and clearly on an upward trend and we expect that this will continue to be the case in coming quarters. And in Wholesale Banking, Always more volatile, but we have had so far a very good year, also improving year on year this Q3 and obviously the Q3 always with seasonality. You may see in the right hand side chart the evolution by month of our fee revenues and we are matching last year performance from June, except last month of August, impacted mainly by this impact in payments I mentioned before. A few words on insurance. Here, I would mainly highlight the very positive evolution of our life risk business, €150,000,000 of quarterly revenues on this business, record high actually.

And this sets the accumulated increase in this business at 8.5 percent year to date. In the right hand side chart, you see the evolution of this all the same insurance activities in our P and L. I would remark also a positive contribution on net interest income. And here just to highlight again the good performance of the MyBox commercial offer that is helping to do really well in current circumstances. On costs, we are doing well on this front.

Year to date, costs down by 3.1%. We are on track to comfortably meet our guidance. Remember that we were expecting cost to come down by this year by at least 2%. And as of today, I can tell you that probably we will be more close to the 3% area or around the 3% area, down by the 3% in 2020. You see that the improvement is across the different cost lines and that what has we have saved in costs more than compensates what we have lost in revenues in core revenues year to date.

Thus, this is why we have a clear improvement in core operating income and also in our cost to income that is down to 56.3%. A few words on moratoria, important part of our presentation. You may see here The weekly moratoria production, you see clearly that this is tapering or It has already ended by September 30. And in the right hand side chart, you see the expected evolution of the stock of loans with moratoria. This is for Spain and for individuals.

But you may see that most legal moratoria is has expired right now and has resumed interest payments in the Q3. And actually, I would say that almost all performing, as Onfaro commented, 97%. It's honoring these payments. And in the Q4, there are most consumer loan moratorium That is going to expire and will resume normal installments. This is affecting approximately slightly more than €1,000,000,000 So this is important to follow and monitor this Q4.

And then in the Q2 of next year is when most mortgage moratoria expire and we'll resume normal installments. Here you have a clear profile of what is going on, on this front. In Portugal, the timetable is different. It's a different program. Stock of moratorium there is €6,000,000,000 38% of the loan moratorium is facing payment obligations in the Q3.

I would say that almost 100% honoring those obligations. Of the remaining 62%, only 3% show an indication of potential future payment difficulties. Here, what we are doing is to cross check with our indicators for the client in order to foresee any potential issues. And some comments on loan loss charges on this front, well, euros 260,000,000 for the quarter. On IFRS 9 models, we have made a few changes, fine tuning, as Gonzalo commented.

But on a cumulative basis, Here you have the figures for 3 years. We are considering our base case that the Spanish GDP will be down by 1.5% in 3 years And this remains broadly changed, although the profile changes a little bit. We have all the detail about by stages of our loan loss provisions and also our COVID reserve. I would also like to remark that this third quarter, Those loan loss charges include generic reserves applying extremely conservative approach. On liquidity, I would say that we continue to be at ample in a very ample situation with liquid assets at €111,000,000,000 liquidity coverage ratio at 2 80% and at a stable funding ratio of 141.

You know that we have been in the market recently with an 81 issue. With this, we feel 2% more than 2% of the 81 bucket and the now our MREL ratio standing at 41%, 40%, well above the current enrol requirement at 22.7%. On this one, I would like also to remark that CasaBank ratings have been confirmed by all 3 major rating agencies post the announcement of the merger agreement with Bank. And finally, on solvency, this Q3, we end considering the Comercia transaction that, as Gonzalo has commented, is already closed at 12%, 17% ex transitional IFRS 9 is a quarter where we have had strong organic capital generation, 45 basis points, in this case, also with the after the with a tailwind after the introduction of IRB models in the non warranted part of eco loans. We have been accruing dividend clearly, as you know, 43 percent according to supervisory requirements.

We have a negative impact from markets, mainly from Telefonica, as you know well and others. And this is minus 11 basis points for the quarter and then a net positive impact considering dividends of 20 bps from Comercia. And on top of this, we have 51 basis points for transitional IFRS 9, thus ending the quarter with, let's say, regulatory capital ratio standing at 12% 68% and resulting into an ample MDI buffer at 4 58%, considering all the impacts from the Comercia and the AT1 issuance. So this is all from my side. Just to wrap up, it's a quarter where we have continued to have continued market share gains with activity levels clearly picking up in the quarter.

And at the same time, credit metrics have been broadly stable despite the bulk of the moratorium assuming payment obligations. It's a quarter where we are widening corporate interest and at the same time, we have been reinforcing further our Solvency metrics with the 81 issuance resulting into an ample NDA buffer. So thank you very much. And with That is that's it for my part. So it's now time to proceed to Q and A.

So please, operator, Proceed with the first question, including the name and the company of the caller. And let me please remind you all to keep your questions brief for the benefit of everyone on the call. So thank you. Operator?

Speaker 3

Yes. Hi. Do you listen to me?

Speaker 1

Yes. Hello.

Speaker 3

Yes. Hi, thanks very much for the presentation, Javier Gonzalo, and for taking the questions. Also wanted to send my quick regards to Eddy. Hopefully, he recovers fast. Just have two questions.

1 on NII. I mean, what should we expect beyond 4th 4Q 2020 in terms of NII given the trends that we see in your eyeball? And also wanted to get a bit of your thoughts On how to reduce the excess liquidity that you are gathering and whether the fee policy changes that you are fostering Will lead to some reduction in that or you don't count on it? And the second question is on costs. The 3Q 2020 course base has fully captured or not the departure from the restructuring that you did In 2Q?

And if so, whether you're going to planning you're planning to book some extra costs from the merger in 4th quarter?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Nacho. I'll let Javier elaborate about NII. In terms of Levels of liquidity, I'm sure Javier will obviously mention it as well, but We continue to be fairly successful in our activity, and this is bringing additional levels of excess liquidity. This is unfortunately something that we have to cope with. The new fee commission, the new policy on fees, I don't think it's going to change that in any significant matter.

But we will continue to try and pass those negative costs on the corporate side as Strictly as possible, right? But it is certainly one of the big issues Well, we have. In terms of costs, there's no extra costs booked so far associated to the merger. There will be some in the Q4 preparatory work that will be included. But I think it's pretty clear that we are in pretty good shape in terms of cost this year.

In fact, It is my expectation that we will end up close to 3% down as opposed to 2% down on cost In 2020. Beyond that, I think Javier, what you want to add and particularly on NII.

Speaker 1

Hello, Ignacio. Well on net interest income, I think that into 2021 for us the uncertainty The most important uncertainty we have now is on volumes, to what extent the Production, we have had a strong growth in government warranted loans, mainly channeled to SMEs and self employees, etcetera. This will prevent loan growth into 2021. So this is probably the biggest question mark. To what extent capital spending will be there or not in order to help loan growth.

And as of today, Unfortunately, I cannot give you much more visibility because you can understand that What the situation in terms of health situation is preventing to have at least now a longer term view. I would also add to here to what extent Consumer confidence will continue to support growth in mortgages and consumer lending. So far is the case. So we have been positively surprised with the performance. And actually this, let's say, positive mood has continued into October.

But clearly, We need to see what happens going forward. You asked about the impacts from rates. I think that here In the past, we have been giving you sensitivity analysis, let's say, that For let's say for each 10 basis points on Euribor, we could have approximately an impact of 1% in NII. I think that this according to, let's say, the average profile of the balance sheet, this metric continues to be valid and probably can help you to figure out what may happen in 2021 from this front. On the positives, well, let's see how we are able to manage this excess liquidity.

That's true, but it's a situation where there is an excess liquidity in the system. And actually, this is what the ECB is targeting a situation with excess liquidity. At the end of the day, this liquidity filters from way or another into the balance sheet of banks in general. And well, from our side, what we try to do is to put in place the right incentives for our teams, our sales force at all levels in order to at least to try to compensate what the costs of this excess liquidity that can be compensated with revenues in other parts of the business. And the right incentives for this are in place.

I would also like to remark here any potential positives that we may have. And clearly, yesterday, the ECB already outlined that there will be some news in terms of monetary policy or instruments in December. So here potentially, lower of the TLTRO or at least the benefit of The TLTRO at minus 1% or a different level, but I think that this is potentially something that may be on the cards or potentially an increase of the tiering. So those are, who knows, part of the, let's say, the toolkit that ECB is thinking about. And well, if at some time we may have a steepening of the yield curve Of course, then so then we may have the chance to add to the ALCO portfolio.

Not at current levels, I would say that thinking in the long term probably are not the right levers to do so. I don't know, Ignacio, if this answers your question. If this is the case, I would Going to the next one, please, operator?

Speaker 4

Thank you. Good morning. My first question is from Spain Longyear. Can you hear me? Hi, can you hear me?

Speaker 1

Yes, yes, Marta. We can hear you. The problem is that we cannot hear the operator. So we are a little bit lost, but we recognize you. Go ahead.

Speaker 4

Thank you. So first one, Spain loan yields. Can you explain the 7 bps drop This quarter and looking forward on top of the Euribor effect, how much loan yield do you think you could lose over the next 12 months due to mix? The second question is on payment holidays. The stock is up 11% in the quarter.

Other banks have reported shrinking books. What explains the increase in Caixabank? And related to this, just a quick one on eco lines. We've seen articles in the Spanish press Suggesting grace periods and maturities could get extended. How does the scheme work?

I mean, in the event of a loan covered by a Guarantee defaults. Can you claim the guarantee from the government straight away? Or do you need to restructure first? And what's the probability of default you're calculating in your Ecoline portfolio.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Martell. In terms of payment holidays, we Actually, we had at the end of June a similar level, €11,000,000,000 in Spain. €1,000,000,000 was under analysis and now we have €11,000,000,000 So it's been more or less stable. I honestly and maybe Javier, I cannot make comparison with others because Different people have followed different policies. Ours has been and so far so good is that this instrument was actually The right instrument we use with certain clients, so we've been proactive during the lockdown.

And what we're seeing is that, as I said, a payment is actually now following through. So but there's been no increase On the total amount because we had €10,000,000,000 granted, but €1,000,000,000 under analysis at the end of June, at least those are The figures I have. On ECO, you are basically the question you had on how it works, If there's default on principal noninterest, if there's default, then we can execute the guarantee. That's the reality. But obviously, We are all looking at this being an instrument that is helpful.

And what discussion currently It's being is, obviously, we had this lockdown. We had a tool to help Companies and self employed people with these government guaranteed lines, most of them are 1 year with a grace period for 1 year on principle. And this will obviously expire during the Q2 for most people. The reality is, unfortunately, activity is not back to normal. So for many situations, I think the right policy tool is to extend that period, maybe up to a year or 6 months or whatever.

I don't know if it will be done at a sector level or at an overall level. And we are in a discussion with the government, Bank of Spain, all the banks, etcetera, the banking associations to try and find out what makes more sense because One thing is how we recognize accounting for in our books all this, but I think most importantly is to make sure that We help people when there's really a viable business that is just temporarily under pressure. And for those businesses to have Pay in principle when activity has not been back to normal will not make sense as a policy measure. But clearly, the rule is that if a client defaults on principle, then we can execute. There was the question about yields and well, on the PD On this book, if you want to Javier, just close the question.

Speaker 1

Yes. Well, on the back book yield, the main impact quarter on quarter is coming from the fact that you have a full quarter of the lower yielding eco loans in the book. I would say that this is almost main part of the impact. Actually, this Q3, we are not having much impact from 12 month arrival downwards. But yes, we are having some impact on 3 month arrival downwards.

So this is also affecting to some extent. And Going forward, we our view is that this fab book should be level should be more sustainable. So as, let's say, The big impact of the new production impacting the workbook has already been felt. And you had a question about PVs. Well, According to our internal figures, the average PD of our Eco, let's say, portfolio, it's slightly below 2%, 190% something.

And well, even if you exclude some of the more Risky parts, this is even below 1%. So probably this helps you in this question, Marta.

Speaker 4

Thank you. Thank you, Erik.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thank you. Please then We can proceed with the following question, please.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Your next question comes from Andrea Filtri from Mediobanca. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Could you detail the regulatory headwinds that are implied in the merger combinations? I'm referring to the future impact on Definition of default and EBA guidelines and when they are expected to come, please. And on Slide 20, The Adesha's trend, would the lower claims shown in Q3 Be just seasonal or there could be an impact from COVID with people claiming less making less use of the insurance? And is the trend expected to revert to normal in 2021?

And then allow me please just a few details. What dividend per share will you accrue in Q4 from Telefonica? How much generic provisions you charge in the quarter? And your minus 3% cost guidance, does it include the anticipation of merger costs that you mentioned before? Thank you.

Speaker 1

Okay, Andrea. If I may start with the regulatory headwinds. Okay. Well, when presenting the Banca transaction, we disclosed our best estimate after a close supervisory dialogue we had in the previous weeks, as you can imagine, of the upcoming regulatory impacts that we will face over the medium term. And there were 3 main blocks: the quick fix for intangible assets, then the IRB models on Bankia books, million the mortgage book.

And then other internal model inspection, the impact from other internal model inspections plus EBA guidelines. On this 3rd block, I would say that approximately 80% of the impact is or stems from CasaBank. What happens here is the following. And this impact is higher than initially expected because in the low default portfolio for CasaBank, Historically, we have been calculating the risk parameters, this is PDs, LGVs, relying on external data supplied by rating agencies as those are large corporates. It's something that is normal to do and this is what has been approved historically by the supervisor.

And according to the new EBA guidelines, This now has to be those parameter has to be built according to our internal historical experience, okay? And well, as a consequence of this, we need to rebuild those models. This is a process that will take 18, 24 months because then you need the approval, etcetera, and other internal model inspection. And what happens is that, meanwhile, Meanwhile, this happens and we have all these in place. We have what is called by the supervisorial limitation.

So this will be set at minimum PD and a minimum LGV. And as a consequence of this, the results into much higher risk weighted asset density. Actually, it will result into risk weighted asset density on this portfolio. It's a €37,000,000,000 portfolio of 70% and from 55% approximately that is now. In our view, clearly, this risk weighted asset density is much higher than what is needed.

And let's say that the Capital regulatory capital that is set aside for this portfolio is much higher than what is needed according to the underlying the underlying, let's say, credit quality or credit risk of the portfolio. I think that this probably helps you to understand a little bit the different building blocks, but I would say that probably the main difference compared to what where our initial expectations is this part. I would like also to take the opportunity to add that for the quick fix And after the changes, quick fix in on intangibles and after the changes announced a few days or a few weeks ago, For CasaBank stand alone, the impact is 15 basis points and that approximately and that for the combined entity is approximately 20 basis points, okay? I think that with this, Andrea, I have answered or helped at least to understand a little bit the different blocks. I don't know, Gonzalo, there was Thank you.

Speaker 2

No, there's a few more questions. Let me add on Adeslas. This is seasonal. It's every year that we have lower claims in the Q3, and I expect for it to I'll continue that way. COVID has affected but offset because we have had higher claims from COVID but lower claims from others.

And actually, during the Q3 months of September July, in particular, we had expected An increase of non COVID related claims, and that has materialized, and it's included in What has happened in the Q3? So I think we should look at the activity of the Teslas on a normalized basis, like every year, Well, we see higher profits in the Q3 because of the month of August in particular. And the outlook There for the Q4 and next year is good. With respect to the rest of the questions, I mentioned on the cost side, we're talking about 3%, excluding any merger costs. It's not clear to us what amount of merger costs we'll book into 2020, Q4.

In any case, I expect it to be a limited number, obviously. And whatever we book in 2020, it will be reduced from the extraordinary charge that we'll make in 2021. So it's not a decent on our cost. It's just moving ahead to the future cost that we're incurring, obviously, mostly related to consultants and preparatory work and some other impacts associated to The legal process, no? Other than that, I think there was a question on Telefonica as well, Javier?

Speaker 1

Well, Telefonica has just announced the dividend for the Q4, €0.20 And it will be registered in the Q4 accordingly. You know that it may be in cash or shares and what that decision on this will be taken in due time. Thank you, Andrea. And with this, we answer your questions. We would follow.

Please, operator, move on.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Your next question comes from Sophie Pietersen from JPMorgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 7

Yes. Hi. Here is Taffy from JPMorgan. So a question on dividend. I think the local press was saying that You are not going to pay any dividends before the merger with Bankia is completed.

Is that A correct assumption. So when should we basically expect the 1st potential payment dividend payment from Deutsche Bank. And how should we think about the tariff dividend savings? Will it be 30% of the combined entity? Or will it be 30% of Deutsche Bank's earnings?

So that would be my first question. My second question would be on DTAs. Bankia has a significant amount of DTAs, so does Deutsche Bank and combined, you will have quite a lot of DTAs. Tax fees are going up across Europe, and I think the expectation is that we're going to see more tax hikes. Also the macro environment is very uncertain as you highlighted.

How should we think about any potential risk For DDA write downs in the coming year or 2? And then just a quick follow-up. On the cost, How much of the cost saves that you're seeing this year could potentially reverse in 2021 from higher travel costs And variable salaries.

Speaker 2

Sophie, in terms of The dividend, you're right. The way the merger agreements work is that neither us nor Bankia will pay dividends until after the merger. Otherwise, we would have to have Some equalization in exchange ratio, which would have made things a bit more complex. So it will be paid after the merger is closed, subject to, Obviously, the recommendation from the ECB allowing us to do that, which is our hope and expectation at this stage. In terms of What we said, our payout is going to be up to 30%.

And what we will do is Decide on what exactly the number will be, we need to hear the ECB recommendation. At this stage, it's a bit, I think, a few times To speculate on exactly what the level would be because unfortunately, it may be 0. If the recommendation is not lifted, I expect that it will be, but we will have a discussion and then extend the payment to the Total number of shares, which by the time rather than being €6,000,000,000 which is the random number for CaixaBank, it would be €8,000,000,000 because Bankia would be part of the group and we would have issued The corresponding shares. So that's the way it would it will work. On costs, obviously, we have had a positive impact from a lower level of activity In traveling expenses and as you say, there will be also in comp And some others, you have to keep in mind that as well we had a negative impact from COVID related expenses.

And the last number I have in mind is around €50,000,000 of it's not just providing sanitizers and masks So all the pure sort of medical tests and all what we're doing, we've tested 30,000 basically the number of employees that we have, But also, we have obviously had to manage our complex process during the year and increase Cleaning systems in many areas. So all these costs in a normal year will also disappear. On top of that, we have, before the merger, a very strict sort of cost saving program, reengineering processes, etcetera. So the expectation for 2021 is not just an increase because we have a reversal of costs that we did not incur in 2020 and will incur in 2020. On top of all this, we're going to obviously have the merger with Bankia.

And this is what is going to obviously dominate the ultimate outcome. We will, in due course, update on cost expectations for 2021. But to be honest, not before the merger Closest because I think at this stage, you wouldn't make much sense. Efficiency is the name of the game. Obviously, the merger with Bankia has much to do with that point and we're going to continue delivering.

This year, we've managed to deliver more than what we expected, partly because of COVID associated savings, but a lot of it because of other structural changes. So we'll continue on that basis. Well, DTA's taxes going up is good, not bad for the

Speaker 1

Yes. For a degree, yes. And this Actually, in the U. S, what happened in 2016 is the opposite, if you remember well. So well, a few words on DTAs because There is always questions around.

Well, just to confirm the figures, I think that are public and well known. Well, yes, Bankia Talking about monetizable DTAs, whole EUR 7,400,000,000, Cashiban 5,600,000,000. This makes EUR 13,000,000, the combined. Well, those are, let's say, warranted DTAs and we are paying a fee for those DTAs, risk weighted 100%. So for us on that front, we don't face an issue.

And for the other parts of the DTAs that are probably more complex perhaps, but in any case, in many cases are already deducted. And I would like to give you some figures because I think it's worth mentioning. For CasaBank standalone, let's say, for CaixaBank, not talking about the combined entity of Bankia. We already have a consumption a capital consumption of €3,000,000,000 for DTAs. So this is 200 basis points of our CET1 ratio.

So well, DTAs are there, but are already having a cost also. And so I think that any time you or the market, let's say, question later with all the DTAs also have to take into account that are already all deducted or with a very high consumption in capital that in our case is 200 basis points, as I said. So from our side, well, this has its process internally with every 6 months and let's say an impairment test. And as of today, there are no issues. So according to long term forecasts of profitability for the bank, no need for an impairment at least according today assessment.

I don't know, Sophie, if with this, I we are answering your questions. If this is the case, We would move on to the following question. Please, operator.

Speaker 7

Yes. Thank you very much. It was very clear.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Sophie.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Your next question comes from Adrian Cighi from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 8

Hi there. Thank you very much. This is Adrian Chigi from Credit Suisse. I have one question on cost of risk and one follow-up on NII, please. So on cost of risk, Clearly, Q3 was better than expected, but we're seeing renewed restrictions in Spain.

How do you expect this to impact your cost Risk into 2021, clearly mindful of the pending merger with Bankia. Any guidance around your outlook there would be helpful. And just following up on NII to Clarify your earlier sensitivity. So the highest point, 12 months EIBOR versus now, we've seen some 40 basis points decline. Is it fair to say that you would expect NII to decline by 4% in 2021 before any sort of impact of Volumes and potential incremental benefits from the ECB in December?

Speaker 2

Thank you, Adrian. I'll Take on the first question. On cost of risk, nothing different from what we've been saying so far. We expect this year to be between €60,000,000 €90,000,000 We said last quarter it would be probably close to the upper end of the range. Based on what we have seen in the Q3, I would be more optimistic.

But at the same time, I'm cautious because The Q4 and particularly the expectation for 2021 may be less positive. All in all, Even if we take a fairly conservative approach, we assume further deterioration of the 2021 environment. We are expecting to stay within that range of 60 to 90 basis points. And we continue to believe that in 2021, even though we'll have the increase in nonperforming loans because this year, it has not materialized. And in the Q4, I don't think It will in any sort of significant size.

So even if we see a higher NPL in 20 'twenty one because we are trying to cope as much as we can with anticipating that environment in 2020. We should have a lower cost of risk next year than this year. This is on a stand alone basis. Then when we add Bankia, obviously, we're going to be adding whatever is Bankia's impact but being very much protected because of the adjustments and that we've had to do on completion of the transaction. So that lower cost at risk in 2021 versus 2020 Should hold even more taking into account the merger transactions.

Obviously, We have some degree of uncertainty, but I think when we look at the overall big picture, we're pretty confident that this should be The framework or the range on which Costa Rica should evolve. Javier, do you want to take the second one, please?

Speaker 1

Yes. And if I may, now I realize that I forgot to answer a question for Andrea before asking about the amount of generic provisions related to this question on cost of goods. The amount of generic provisions this Q3, it's approximately €150,000,000 To your question Non net interest income, what you need to take into account is the delta. And the average 12 months LIBOR in 2020 will be around minus 30 bps approximately. And into 2021, according to, let's say, market forwards, it's going to be probably 10, 15 basis points lower.

So this is the impact. So the delta is what impacts net interest income year on year and not the full amount of 12 month arrival. I hope with this we answered.

Speaker 8

That's right.

Speaker 9

Thank you very much.

Speaker 5

Of course. Thank you. Your next question comes from Carlos Cobo Catena from Societe Generale. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 10

Hi. Good morning. Thank you very much for the detailed presentation. Two questions for me. One is on Cost of risk outlook and the recently published stress test from the Bank of Spain, Obviously, that is a theoretical exercise.

It has nothing to do with your base case. But even under the Bank of Spain basis scenario, We are coming out with a big scenario for loan losses of around 12% of risk weighted assets for domestic banks. And they believe that the system would consume capital under that base scenario. Again, I understand the differences, but There seems to be a huge discrepancy, and I wanted to understand if you have a chance to compare because when I look at their base case, they also talk About a 1.5% cumulative contraction of GDP in 3 years. So that's similar to your base scenario.

So I would like to

Speaker 11

hear your thoughts on that.

Speaker 10

Secondly, maybe if you could help us to understand Some figures that other banks are publishing about the usage of payments and credit cards, which are returning to normalized levels, That's quite reassuring. But on the other hand, we have also seen a reduction in cash transactions. So in a way, that is improving the comparative that is not really implying an improvement in consumption. So do you have any way to adjust for that improvement in the usage of cash Sorry, of plastic transactions? Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Carlos. Let me answer the second question. The statistics that we published actually include not just payments with cards, but also withdrawals with cards in our ATMs. So the statistics that we're making public for October, I like minus 5 versus last year. It already includes that impact that you mentioned, which is very, very true That obviously there's been an increased propensity to pay with cards, which is good for that side of the business.

But when we look at the statistics we put, We've said about credit card turnover, it includes withdrawals from ATMs. And on that, what we've seen, a minus 5% in October compared to minus 3% in September compared to Slightly higher in August, and I would say the minus 5% in October is close to the levels of late June July, to give you a sense. And obviously, we're expecting the last quarter sorry, the last week in October has been minus 10%. To give you an indication, we're expecting that In this sort of increased restriction framework, which is already obviously happening In the last week, we're going to see some weakness. But compared to April, where we were minus 40%, 40 something percent, We are in a it's a different type of lockdown, obviously, different type of impact on our car payments and on the economy.

Obviously, you may think that it's going to be so bad that we'll go through a very hard lockdown. I don't think it will be the case, not for a very long time period, certainly. And this current sort of partial lockdown is having an impact, but it's very different. And it's not just for our business because obviously, That's the most important is what is the impact on the economy. The impact on the economy as people schools stay open, people send their children to school, they can continue work Continue working from home or from wherever they have to.

The industry is not stopping, etcetera. Hopefully, we can Keep this level of restrictions, which are hard on people but not as hard on the economy as last We're going to have some weakness in the Q4, but clearly nothing comparable with what we saw in the second quarter. But obviously, we'll need to follow the situation quite closely. On the Bank of Spain exercise, I really don't have, Javier, you may know the exercise.

Speaker 1

Nor me in detail. So I need To go into detail on this, well, you know that this is a top down stress test at aggregate level. The base scenario of the Bank of Spain is in line with our macro central scenario. What According to Banco Spain estimates, this is going to have an impact of approximately 1 percentage point in CET1 between 2019 2022, well, in this case also with the help of government granted loan schemes, etcetera. In the adverse scenario, this clearly is having a more harsh impact.

But I would say that at least the initial estimate that we have done that this is in line with previous test debt's result that for us. So I would say that In general terms, this would result into a CET1 ratio for us above our aircraft requirement. But you know that it's so difficult not to modelize the whole thing. And you know that ECB from their side also they presented sector wide, let's say, impacts of the pandemic. And in general terms, I would say that according to our internal estimates, we were comparing well.

But I'm sure that we can go into the details in another time. So because what it's so complex. It's so vast an extent, I would say.

Speaker 10

Thank you, Javier. Yes, so we can follow-up. My intention is to understand better what they are including in the stress test, which you are to pay dividends and they Don't doesn't fulfill dividend payment, for example.

Speaker 1

I agree. We can follow-up on the details, I'm sure. Thank you, Carlos. Operator, please can we move on?

Speaker 5

Your next question comes from Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley.

Speaker 12

Question on asset quality, maybe in a different way and then one on capital. Clearly, Escoffier is surprising everyone positively. Presumably, in the retail side, it's the furlough schemes.

Speaker 11

As long

Speaker 12

as the furlough schemes are extended, presumably, that will continue to relatively well. Just a confirmation of that. But also on the corporate side, obviously, you've injected and all the banks have injected a lot of liquidity to the corporates and And obviously, things are going. We're not going to see from our side any real changes in NPLs until maybe next year. But From what you track in your clients, are you being positive, negative, surprised or in line when you look at how much cash They're burning during the lockdown or during the tough times.

Is that Also a surprise or not, maybe you can speak to how corporate is holding up, which is maybe less intuitive And should we be worried or not about the cliff edge when they start paying the principal? And then on capital, hopefully, a simpler question. Just the moving parts for CaixaBank standalone, this was obviously a focus when you announced the merger and the 11.3 Combined. I just want to get clarity on the moving parts for you stand alone into Q4. So You've already called out software, I think, talking with II business around 50 basis points from the High default portfolio from new standalone in Q4.

But on the positive side, I don't know if you can quantify the insurance Dividend that is still pending and any other positives we should take into account. So what are the moving parts that you already know about as we head into Q4?

Speaker 2

Alvaro, let me address First question on asset quality. Let me be very clear. The experience we have had so far is much better than what we expected. And obviously, we had expectations based on furloughs and moratoria pay deferrals, etcetera, government guaranteed loans. But even including all that, we're doing much better than expected.

And that is reflected also in the cost of risk that this quarter includes That amount of approximately €150,000,000 of collective generic provisions again because we know that obviously we need to be prudent. But Really, the experience we're having, it's also in sort of early defaults in what we call Morozidata emprana up to 0 to 90 days, etcetera. We're having a very positive experience. And the experience in October has also been pretty good, where we're having already also some sort of Final maturity of grace periods for consumer lending in full principal and interest payments. So Let's be clear.

The quarter has been outstanding in terms of asset quality. And let's be clear, obviously, we are very much Aware that we have plenty of challenges for the future. With respect to corporates, in general, we have pretty good feeling how they are coping with this. And I would say not only corporates, but the rest. Obviously, the question is the for the smaller companies, The protection and the margins, the buffers they have is are lower.

But what we've seen in terms of how the economy has recovered, levels of TBT. And generally, certainly, corporates during the Q3 has been quite positive. So I have the sense that if we have to make now sort of an evaluation of where we are, let's say, what it's been done so far, it's been done well and it's worked. And obviously, we also have to be conscious that this is not the end of the picture. The picture is still not final.

And hence, we cannot have a final judgment on everything. But clearly, in terms of how we're seeing our clients, we're Seeing them in better shape than expected. Then you have to go sector by sector. And obviously, there are sectors that are being particularly affected by What's happening right now and those obviously generate a higher degree of concern. But the resilience And again, I go back to the figures of sort of a leverage in companies, businesses and Retail in Spain before this crisis, they were before below Europe and certainly way below where they were at the line at the time The last crisis.

So there are some reasons to think that we are actually going to be able to cope and particularly referring to our clients that they will be. But there will be damage certainly in certain sectors and certain parts. I think at this stage, We are well prepared to face that, but time will tell. On capital, Javiero, please.

Speaker 1

Alvaro. Well, for the Q4, I have already disclosed the potential impacts well, the impacts for the software deduction, 15 basis points, I think, let's say, for CasaBank. There is also an issue about the Potential non that the contribution to the deposit warranted fund will not be deducted anymore. You know that this In France, you had an issue on this front and probably we have also some clarity into the Q4 on this. This could add approximately 8 basis points.

And then you mentioned the insurance company, where on this front, we have already So the insurance company has already paid an interim dividend. So this is already unlocked this issue. What we have been able to argue to the supervisor that the solvency ratios for the insurance company were sufficiently ample in order to allow for dividends. And so we don't expect going for any, let's say, internal model inspection or I mentioned before in detail. The most probable is that It will be in the Q4, although it's not 100%, but I would say that you should count that it will be in the Q4, as you say.

Speaker 5

Your next question comes from Domenico Santoro from HSBC. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 11

Hi, good morning. Thanks for the presentation and for Thanks for giving us actually the different scenario implied in your model at Page 23. I do have a question on how the amount of provision more the provision will change if you have to give more probability To get better scenario, any sensitivity on this side would be great to have and especially also Any also implication for risk weighted assets from rating migration, if any? The second question is on capital. I know that there are many moving parts here.

I wonder whether you rerun the calculation For the core Tier 1 in Q1 of next year, if this EUR11.3 billion still stands as it is Or you have probably have an update on this. And given that there are, of course, this is a number On the ODDIs from investors. I was just wondering whether you have any timeline for capital rebuilding here In terms of timing to get to 12% now that probably you have done more works on the integration side. And then I have a question on deposits, if I can. I've seen that you've got quite a big chunk of deposits this year.

And given the level of rates where it is, I'm just wondering whether there is any from clients or any commercial activity from your side In order to migrate this money into asset management products going forward? Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Domenico. I'm going to try and be concise in the answer in order to make We'll outperform the rest because we should finish by 1, no? I'd say in terms of liquidity, we're actively managing liquidity, both through Appropriate charges and obviously making sure that we have a balanced proportion of liquidity from clients given the business they have with us. And also, if clients have a lot of liquidity, they should have all the business and the overall picture should be profitable clearly. And there's room To go further on that front because now we it's clear to all of us and it's clear to our clients that money has a cost, And it's going to have a cost this year, next year and for quite a few years.

So this is no longer a discussion. We'll say, well, why don't you this is just a few Months or a couple of years now, this is now a structural problem, if you look at it that way. Money is costly, and Our clients need to behave accordingly. So I expect to make further progress on that front. Terms of the merger numbers, we have not updated them on capital or costs at this stage.

I think it is something that we need to do in due course when the Transaction is completed. But it's obvious to, I think, everyone, given the numbers that we have delivered in this quarter, There is upside certainly on the capital side to the numbers that we have presented. I think both institutions are doing nicely in increasing further the capital ratios beyond certainly what the market was expecting. And we'll keep working on that front. On the rest, Javier, can you maybe take it?

Speaker 1

Okay, Domenico. On rate immigration, so we are in the same place. Remember that What we commented is that we have approximately €50,000,000,000 of risk weighted assets in IRB models So the rate immigration would affect that part. Our expectation is that this will be less than somewhere between 5% 10%. So but this is probably the worst case, 10%.

And thus, we think that It's something that we can manage in any case. And you had a question initially about the impact of, let's say, a more, let's say, pessimistic view in the combination of scenarios. Our view here is that, well, this according to What we may think may happen on this front on the different weightings, we should be able to accommodate this into our guidance for this year. I think that this is an important message unless where the situation or the whole scenarios had to be changed, but we think that we can absorb a more, let's say, asset view on the combination of scenarios. Thank you, Domenico.

I think that is this helps to answer your question. And we should move up. We should be closing by 1. So let's see if we have time for 1 or 2 more questions, please. Please, operator.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Your next question comes from Jose Coll from Santander. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Hello.

Speaker 9

Thank you very much for taking my questions. First, I have a follow-up on capital and And cost of risk, you mentioned that Bank of Spain Central scenario expects around a 1% impact on CET1 up to 2022. I think the EBA Analysis that they presented a few months back was sort of 1.5%, 2% impact on CET ratios. And if I have understood correctly, you said that you would be your view would be in line with that sort of analysis. So My question is, where do you think the impact on capital are going to come from?

When cost of risk you're guiding for lower cost Next year versus this year and the pre provision profit already more than covers your cost at risk. Is this mainly You see a big increase in risk weighted assets. This was a big driver for impacts on capital could be going forward. And then a second question on Eco Lending. It's done it's been done at lower yields versus the type book for both corporates and SMEs.

So I understand that adjusted by capital consumption, eco loans are very profitable. But would you expect a spillover effect On the rest of the non nickel lending in the corporate and SME book when the time comes to roll over these non nickel loans. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Jose. Well, on the CET1 impacts here, I understand that you already take into account that we have downloaded much of those impacts because we have built those COVID related provisions. So it's not from now on that those impacts will be felt. So we have already front loaded a large part of those impacts. So just to take this into account.

And I would say that our macro views are in line with what you have commented. So I don't think that this is going to be an issue, at least according to our analysis. And regarding your second question on Eco, well, I think Our views are not that should not have an impact on the new production of loans after Licon because, well, it's a different product, it's a different probably a target. So our view is that we should be able to resume the new origination loans at, let's say, wider spreads as before. So remember that also this From Bogill from Eco Loans also takes into account the cost of the warranty also and with Loans without the warranty of ECO, you don't have this.

So this it's worth mentioning also. I don't know, Jose, if this answers your question. We should be moving on. Thank you. Operator, please?

Speaker 5

Thank you. And your next question comes from Derek Quinn from KBW. Please ahead. Your line is open.

Speaker 13

Hi. It's Dara from KBW. Thanks for taking my questions. One question, a follow-up on capital, just on the commentary explanation you gave for the low default Portfolio and building out your own model. So just to be clear, the 50 basis point roughly impact that we should expect In Q4 or in Q1 will essentially be reversed as you rebuild your own models.

Could you just Confirm that and if you could just outline the timeline of that process. And then just a small Question on NII. Just confirm the amount of TLTRO accrual in NII This quarter? And the final question on Telefonica. I mean, I know in hindsight, it's maybe easy to look at As an investment and come to a conclusion, but as you see the impact that this has had on your capital ratio, Maybe just some color around what I know it's available for sale and what the kind of standard answer to this question is, but Just really what is the logic and benefit of having this type of investments?

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Javier, do you want to start and then I'll finish on Telefonica, if you wish?

Speaker 1

Derek, well, We are starting to work on, let's say, the new model according to the parameters required by the supervisor. This is going to take some time, as I said, because then it's not only that we do our homework, it's also that we Then the new approvals for this new model has to be obtained and this is going to take probably up to 2 years. Our view is that we will come up with a situation that is better than this weighted asset density of 70%. If we will be back to where we are today, it's something that is still an open question, but clearly an improvement with the situation that we will be facing since the moment this limitation is in force. On NII, quarter on quarter, the positive impact from TLTRO is €35,000,000 We are accruing 87 basis points according to accounting rules.

And we already had some impact from TLTRO in the 2nd quarter. And this is, let's say, the 87 basis points compared to the 50 basis points you are obtaining where you are charged in the deposit facility of ECB. And on Telefonica?

Speaker 2

Sure. On Telefonica, Daran has nothing new other than the under Performance of the company, which obviously shows in our capital numbers, I hear you, but there is nothing new. And I think in the interest of time, I'm taking The last question, I will not elaborate more because there's absolutely nothing new.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 9

Okay. Thank

Speaker 1

you. That's all we have time today. I know that there are Some other questions on the line, but well, their team is available for you. And I am also personally available for you At any moment, as always, please. Thank you very much.

Speaker 2

Thank you very much.

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