Earnings Call: Q3 2021

Oct 22, 2021

Good morning, everybody. My name is Beatriz Cesar. I'm Head of Investor Relations at Linea Directa. We published our 3rd quarter results earlier on this morning. I have here with me Carlos Rodriguez Duarte, our CFO, who will review our financial results and activity for the 1st 9 months of the year. Without any further delay, I hand the conference call over to Carlos. Thank you very much, Beatriz. Good morning to everyone, and welcome also from my side. We are going to start the 9 month presentation with Slide 5. Here what we try to show is the results highlights. We are very pleased to deliver a strong performance during the 1st 9 months of the year and high profitability metrics. Policyholders grew by 4.5% and premiums by 1.1%, the latter reflecting pressure on premiums in the motor line of business, both for new business and renewals, even if we have outperformed the market in terms of growth. Combined ratio was strong at 86.4% in our context of back to the normal frequency. As with regards to the expense ratio, we are showing once again our commitment to efficiency. Net result stood at €86,300,000 and return on average equity at 34 0.1%. Solvency ratio for the 1st 9 months of 2021 was 200%. This figure is already taken into consideration the €25,800,000 dividend pay on October 7, which repented to have a strong dividend payout. Moving on Slide 7 to 9 provide a brief update on the motor market. Mobility has increased to level prior to the pandemic, and therefore, we have seen an increase in frequency. As with regards to severity, the last 2 months show a downturn of the 2021 trend. Turning to Page 8. We are still observing lower sales of new cars, mainly in the particular segments, which fell 11%. It is important to mention that the market share of Linea Directa on new cars is quite above its natural market share and hence it has had an impact on growth. Once the market turns around, it should benefit the company. Lesser sales of new car triggered the aging of the car park. 2 thirds of insurance vehicles in Spain are more than 10 years old. This in turn translates into lower insurance coverage. What is recovering is the sale of secondhand vehicles. Nowadays, there is uncertainty about the car type of tomorrow. To conclude the overview of the motor insurance market, on Slide 9, we show that while the car part keeps on growing, gross written premiums are down 0.9% on an accumulated basis. It is worthwhile to mention that the gross written premium fell by 2.6 percent for the Q3 standalone. As a consequence, average premiums are falling, reflecting more aggressive pricing for new and retained business. Turning to Page 10. Home insurance continue with a different development. The purchases of home is picking up. Market as a whole is growing at a rate of almost 5%. The market combined ratio dropped from 101 in the first quarter to 98.5% with the latest available data. The market was hardly hit by increased frequency and regular atmospheric events. For its part, sanitary assistant retains a remarkable growth in premiums and policyholders in a context of increased 5.3%. Now I'll take you through the main figures for this quarter for Linea Direct. Although the comparison with 2020 figures is important, I think it's more relevant to compare our 9 month results with those of 2019, a more normalized year. Premiums were up 1.1%, reflecting a 4.5% increase of new clients, while price pressure continues in the motor market as we just explained before. Technical result was strong with a combined ratio of 86.4%. As mentioned before, we have included September 2019 figures also as a reference as the company posted in 2020 an extraordinary result due to the lockdown measures and as a consequence of the pandemic. Financial results were up 21%, reflects release gains on account of the issuer repurchasing our investment in an energy fund. Financial result will have dropped without this realized gain by 6.4% adjusting for such effect. So all things considered, profit after taxes stood at €86,300,000 down 13.4% on 2020. If we compare this number with the result of 2019, the NIMAD result in 2021 were up by 5 point 9%. Please turn to next slide, Page 14, where you see the breakdown of the policyholders and gross written premium by line of The portfolio as a whole increased by 4.5% sustained by higher retention rates. Premiums grew a modest 1.1 percent with the Home and Health line of businesses growing by more than 8% and 23%, respectively. The motor line of business experienced a moderate decrease in premiums, yet outperforming the market on the back of an extremely in the in the 1st 9 months of the year, yet slightly above the motor market as a whole, which decreased 0.9%. On a standalone basis, the Q3 for Linea del Eresta was flat in terms of growth, whereas the market dropped by 2.6%. However, as I have Skjals explained, the portfolio recorded a solid growth with a highly competitive market environment, particularly in customer retention. On the technical front, combined ratio stood at a remarkable 84.7%, which is 5.4 points below the sector with the latest available data as of June. Comparing like for like, meaning June with June, the company combined ratio was 6.4% or points below the sector. This ratio of 84.7% represents an increase of 4 points against the same period of 2020. When we compare to a, let's say, normalized year, which is 2019, the ratio is down 1.5 points. Moving to home insurance. Premiums were up 8.4%, a growth rate that beats the market by 3.4 points. New business had a remarkable performance in the Q3 too. Combined ratio dropped by 3.1 percent points and stood at 19.3%, which is 8.3 points below the market with the latest available data as of June. Expense dropped by more than €1,000,000,000 and translated into a lower cost ratio as business grows. On the negative side, frequency has been steadily increasing over the last couple of years. Fuming now into the healthy health line of business, clients grew by 23.7% and premiums by almost 25%. We continue with our prudent subscription policy and a careful risk selection. Loss and expense ratio are steadily improving. Our overall combined ratio improved by 13.6percentual points. Phillips, let's go to Slide 18, where we break down loss and expenses ratio by line of businesses. Loss ratio had a notable performance across all line of businesses. Motor loss ratio stood at 67% despite the sharp increase in frequency, especially in the 2nd part of the year. Home insurance has recurring impacts of weather events amounting to €3,500,000 Loss ratio in Home stood at 56.4 percent. And in the Health line of business, loss ratio was below the 100% mark for the first time since we launched this business. On expenses, the company continue with its policy of cost discipline, contention and the use of technology. It is worthwhile to highlight the improvement of 1 point resulted in a solid combined ratio of 86 point 4%, displaying the company's strict ongoing discipline of underwriting and expenses. If we move to the next slide, as you may recall from the Q2 result, we like to include a few years of data, which basically show how the company is able to achieve solid technical measures over time. Consolidated claims ratio stood at 65.9 percent, of which 0.5 points come from weather events. On the next slide, we elaborate on the expense ratio. I'd like to underpin the company has a recurrent focus on cost control. Expense ratio in the Q3 is explained by lower acquisition and retention cost, higher staff expenses as a consequence of the listing, namely governing bodies and back office people. Expense ratio was 20.5 percent, down 1% 12 points. Let's please now move to Slide 21. Financial result was up 21%, reflecting, as I explained before, realized gains on our energy fund that was repurchased by the issuer. Adjusting for this effect, financial result is 6.4% down. The fixed income portfolio reflect lower investment deals, yet equities and investment property had a remarkable performance. Let's go now to Slide 22. The asset allocation has remained pretty much stable since last quarter. We reported good returns from equity, properties and corporate bonds. The overall return on the total portfolio stands at 2.85%. Moving on to Slide 23. What we display here is excess of the book provision over best estimate for linear director standalone. Surplus has remained stable at around €60,000,000 We remind that 2020 2021 reveal a typical claim management patterns due to the pandemic. Specifically, some claims took more time to settle, some treatments were delayed, and it was also more difficult to adjust personal injury claims not having access to patients and hospitals. We believe this year will end being fully normalized. Looking into our solvency position on Slide 24, we remain we remind that figures are for Linea Directa standalone. Capital requirement has grown only by €1,000,000 Owned funds have fallen by approximately €4,000,000 Other than earnings and the second dividend of the year, we have €3,000,000 less of unrealized gains in the portfolio. Other adjustments mainly reflect increasing the best estimate of claims and premiums. Solvency merger remains very strong and it stands at 100% after dividend payments. As always, I would like to close the presentation by very briefly going through our progress in our on a number of strategic initiatives. As of September 2021, 55% of customers have requested towing via the application, up 5 points as compared to June. Meanwhile, 47% 33% of claims were opened digitally in motor and home, respectively, the latter increasing by 4 points this quarter. Customers who interact digitally with the company already are up to more than 84% of the total portfolio. Finally, we are pleased to comment on the recent launching of Bebaf Safe and Go. The first pay as you go insurance for personal mobility vehicles. The use of personal mobility vehicles has become increasingly popular in recent years. To give you some highlights, this product provides coverage for damage caused to third parties and personnel injuries to driver with certain limits. The activation and deactivation are 100% digital and likewise, claims handling are managed via smartphone. Insurance is paid per journey or throughout the whole year at the choice of the customer. We believe this product to be a revolutionary solution for sustainable and personal mobility, which once more align with our DNA of innovation and ISG principles. Thank you very much. I will now hand the call over Beatriz to begin the Q and A session. Thank you very much for this presentation, Carlos. First, we'll begin with the questions received from the conference call. The first question comes from Francisco Riquel from Alantra. Please go ahead. Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I have 2. First of all, on Motor, I wanted to ask on the average premium per policy. You mentioned that the sector is down 2.5% in these 1st 9 months. I understand linear direct ties more or less down 4 percentage points. So if you can please explain the fall in absolute and relative terms. In particular, how much is mix, bigger weight of standard products or tariffs? If you can update on the competitive dynamics over the last few months, if the price cuts were made at the beginning of the year or if you are seeing renewed pressure in the renewals over the last few months? And overall, what can we expect in the next few quarters? And then a second question, wanted to ask about cost inflation in general. What are you seeing for the main business lines? In motor, if you are seeing any inflation in the car repair shops, auto parts, also in home, in health with hospitals, if you have yearly contracts with suppliers and if any cost inflation will be felt in 'twenty 2 or not, any mitigation measures that you can apply? Well, thank you very much, Paco. Very nice to talk to you. I mean, on the premium side, on the average premiums and the evolution of the market, I think what I tried to explain is that the market has been lower in average premiums throughout the year. I mean, if you take a look at the market evolution on premium growth, you will see that as of June, I think was more in the neighborhood of minus 0.7% on premium growth. And if you take the last quarter, the market dropped by 2.6%. In the case of Linear Directa, the evolution was much more positive. I mean, we closed at the 9 months with a minus 0.7% in premium growth. So we defend our share quite well. The situation on the market, I think, is still a lot of pressure on premiums. I think you should expect that will go on 2021, especially on the Q1. I expect that frequency, which by the end of September is very much in line with the frequency we had on 2019. So I expect that on 2021, frequency will start to pick up, combined ratios will start to pick up and then pressure on average premiums, as you know, will start to slow down or even disappear. I shouldn't my perception is that still there is pressure on average premiums, and we'll see that especially for the Q1 of 2022. And of course, I mean, the situation of the car manufacturing industry is also having an impact here. There is no selling of new cars. That has a lot of impact on the type of coverage that users buy, and we are seeing that users are more in third parties coverage more than in fully coverage insurance. So as a summary for that, you should expect still pressure on average premiums for this year for sure and probably for the Q1 of next year. Regarding cost inflation, well, that is really an issue. I mean, cost inflation on the repair side of the car industry on the car business has always been there. I mean, more or less, if you wish, a monopoly here in terms of cost. And we have all experienced that pressure in the past years. Looking forward, I think there's going to be more pressure on the repair costs of the business. So that's going to happen for the entire market. In our case, how we manage that, and I think we have a competitive advantage redirect our clients on a 70% on a 60%, sorry, to our own repair shops where we manage much better, much better the cost. If I were to say a number, I mean, whereas the market is growing the cost repair costs by 6% more or less, we are growing our cost repair costs by 2%. So I think we have a competitive advantage there. But yes, you should expect pressure on the repair costs of the car business. And on the health business, it's something that it already happened. I mean, it happened after the pandemic. I mean, if you take a look at the Maremos and if you take a look at the costs of the hospital of the hospitals after June 2020, costs started to increase. So it's something that already happened. And now it's more or less stabilized because the cost increase happened in 2020, in the 2nd part of 2020. Our next question comes from Thomas Bateman at Berenberg. I've just got 2 questions. Firstly, on expenses, you're making really good progress there, down to 20.5% for 9 months. Where do you see there's more is there any more room for expense cutting here? And what's your kind of longer term, medium term target for the group? And does that go down to 19% or so? Or is 20% a bit of a bit of a flaw for you? And just moving on to the loss ratio of Motor. 69% is, I guess, is not actually a bad result in comparison to the 20 19 levels, and it feels like driving levels were back up to normal for Q3. So you've got lower pricing, cost inflation is still there, but you're still achieving very, very good loss ratios. I don't know, what are we missing on the claims part that means that you're still able to hit that 69% level? Thank you very much. Very nice talking to you. On the expense ratio, I mean, we don't have a target. I mean, we don't have a target of getting below that 20% or 20.5%. I think it's something that is inherent within the company. I mean, we are very much focused on trying to be more efficient and more efficient year on year. I mean, having an expense ratio of 17.7% on the car business, I think, is a great number that we posted. I mean but if you were to ask me, I think there's still room to grow there. I mean, we need keep on applying technology. We need to keep on making our clients to become more digital. We have 85% of clients that they are digital, but we have 15% of clients that still they use the phone and they use other channels that they are much more expensive. So I think there's room there to improve. It's becoming increasingly difficult because as we shape the cost lines of the business. But we don't have a target. I mean, with the target that we have is to become the most efficient company in the insurance business, and I think we are very close to that. I mean and I think the entire organization is very much focused on that. I mean and the way to do that is applying technology, analyzing cost on a daily basis. You try to write off cost. That is not necessary. It is true, I mean, that we have increased somewhat the personnel expenses on the back office because of the listing of the company. But again, I mean, I think no targets. We have the strategy of being the most efficient company because I always and I think I already talked to you about this. This is a business based on efficiency, and it's something that we need to keep on improving. But we are very happy with that 20 point need to keep on improving. But we are very happy with that 20.5%. And especially in the motor insurance business and in the home insurance business, which I think we improved very much our cost numbers. And on the loss ratio, I mean, 2021 has been a weird year. I mean, on the first half of the year, frequencies, they were much better than on a normalized year. But it is true that summertime, September has not been very good in terms of frequency and in terms of severity. I mean, looking forward, I think we are very close to a normalized situation. I think we are very close to 2019. I should expect market start to apply that frequency or to show that frequency in a higher combined ratio. Still today, the market is very comfortable with the combined ratio that they have, but I think that's going to change. And I think the turnaround is going to be more on a V situation than on a U situation. And that for us, I think, is a competitive advantage. I mean, as the market keeps on growing in combined ratio, I think Linea Directa has an opportunity there to be much more competitive and to keep on gaining market share. Our combined ratio is still today quite good. I think it's 1.5%, 12 points below 2019. And I think it will grow a little bit on 2022, getting more close to that 87%, something like that. That's really, really helpful. So just 1 follow-up question, just because you mentioned the new car sales and that has an impact on the headline average premium numbers. If you're down if the average premium is down 2.5%, how much do you think of that is attributed to lower new car sales? That is difficult to calculate. What I think is that whenever when in the market there are transaction of buying or selling cars or getting new cars, I think Linea Directa is a player there because it's when clients start to look around for pricing and quality of services, and they look for Linea Directa. So for Linea Directa, any movement on the transaction of the buying or selling of Carracin, I think, is a good news for Linea Directa. Our market share of new car sales is way above the natural market of linearity. It's almost at double. It's almost at double. So it has an impact on ours. It's very difficult to calculate how many premiums we have not been able to book because there is no new car sales, but really, really some impact because when someone buys a new car, 1 of the first things they do is they go through the negative tax rate of prices. So I hope this turns around. It's going to be difficult for the first half of the year. I don't think the car manufacturing industry will turn around until the second half of the year because of all these problems on semiconductors. But once it does, I think, again, it will be good for Linea Directa. That's great. Thanks again and congratulations on the good progress. Currently, we have no further questions on the audio call, so we will hand over for the written questions. Thank you. So now we continue with the questions received from the webcast. Our first question comes from Carlos Peixoto from Caixabank. He's asking whether you could elaborate on the realization gains in this quarter. What are they related with? It's hello, Carlos. It's very easy. I mean, keep in mind that we are a company that we don't do any trading on the investment portfolio. Basically, we hold on maturity our fixed income provisions. And basically, we rely on the dividends of our equity portion of the portfolio. What happened basically is that we had an investment on an energy fund, a renewable energy fund, and the issuer decided to repurchase that. So we don't have a chance. Basically, they repurchase our shares. That investment has been very good. I mean, I think the return on that investment was net 2.1x our investment. So we are very happy, but it's something that it to us and we had to do it. It's not something that we promoted. It's basically that the issuer basically repurchased that position. Besides that, we don't have any trading on the portfolio. That's the only realized gain that we did. If we exclude that realized gains, the yield will be in line with the previous quarter, around 2%. But even though that the financial results of the company for the 1st 9 months were very good. I mean, if you take out that issue, I think that we were down 6.4%. Again, I mean, investment portfolios on the insurance business, they are not going to be provided. There's a very good news looking forward. Hopefully, interest rates are picking up a little bit, and we'll see that looking forward. But still today, no good news on the investment returns. So the next question comes as well from Carlos Peixoto. What are your expectations on premium evolution in motor and home? Well, I think I already explained that. I think still, you will you should expect pressure on average premiums for this year for sure, probably for the Q1 of this year. I think combined ratios will start to pick up, and then we will see the market slowdown on the competition on average premium or even getting flat. But I shouldn't you shouldn't expect until the 2nd part of 2022 because today, still combined ratios are very good as compared to a normalized year. On the Home Insurance business, I think it's a different ballgame. I think there's pressure upwards on premiums because of all the atmospherics and so on. And I don't see any pressure downward on the average premiums. I think more pressure upwards. So I think you will see next year average premiums going up. And what are your expectations on the combined ratio in Motor and Home lines of business again? In the Motor line of business, our expectations for Linea Erecta is best in class, as we always do. Our expectation for the market is sooner or later, the market will go back to that 95%, 96% as that they have as an average. And again, that is an opportunity for Una Directa. And on the home insurance visit, we should keep on improving the combined ratio because we need to improve our cost ratio. Our cost ratio, I think, we posted at 33% coming from a 34%. I think there's still room there and it should improve. What is important about the combined ratio of Vina Directa is that we are in the 90s and the market is on the 98s. So we have a competitive advantage also there. And finally, with this pricing pressure in the motor segment, whether the market is expected to behave in a rational manner as combined ratio increases? Linea Directa is going to behave on a rational manner. That is for sure. I mean, because we are being very prudent on our pricing, and we are very prudent on our underwriting. We'll see what happen with the market. Still today, the market is very comfortable on the level of combined ratios market wise. We'll see what happen. I mean, at the end, this is a business to at least for Linea, there's a business to make money, and we are in those grounds. Our technical margin is on the neighborhood of 15%, whereas the market is below 10%. I mean, we are seeing some pressure downward on pricing, which we don't understand. And at the end, when we sell our insurance policies, we sell that looking not only for the 1st year but also for the ongoing years. So for us, it's very important to make money on this business. I mean, for sure, rationale, it will be in Linea Directa. The rest, I mean, is something you need to ask them. The next question comes from Gilherm Neves from Investeca. He's asking whether you see the pricing pressure on auto business as structural due to aging of Autopark? Well, I mean, the aging of Autopark has an impact there, of course, because at the end, having a car park of in Spain of 13.2, 13.4 years, of course, people tend to go more to 3rd party coverage, which lowers the average premium. No, I think the more than a structural, I think it's a matter of the evolution of the combined ratio, as I explained before. I mean, keep in mind that prior to pandemic, the pandemic situation, the market was in 'ninety 5 percent, 'ninety 6 percent. Even people were in 'ninety 9 percent, even 'ninety 1 percent, even 'ninety 1 percent, they feel comfortable. But again, I think when combined ratios turn around, I mean, people will start to look at pricing and pricing, at least the downward trend will stop. Next question comes from Philippe Rose from Mediobanca. He's asking, when do you expect new cars sales to return to something that looks like normal or maybe the new normal? Given that this is the main source of growth for moto, does it cause any concerns? Well, it's difficult to give you a data. I mean, I'm not an expert on the car manufacturing business. What I have read or what everybody is talking is that this situation is going to last at least until mid 2022. It depends very much on this semiconductor issue, which I really not an expert. It seems that factories that they were developing these semiconductors, now they are in another businesses. And car manufacturers were which, as far as I know, what they are trying to do is develop their own factories of the semiconductors, so they don't have to rely on third parties. But that's going to take time. So I think this issue is going to last a couple of months or even 7 months. It's difficult. It's difficult to give you an answer. And of course, we are concerned. I mean, for us, again, new car sales is a source of income for the company, but it's very little that we can do. The final question comes from Mario Ropero from Westinberg. Please explain the performance of premiums of Health during the Q3. Could you please explain the jump in combined ratio in motor and whether you think that this is the new normal? Motor is not the new normal. I think you should expect frequency has to keep on growing and the combined ratio will rise a little bit. We are getting to normal. We are getting to normal. Again, July, August September, very much in line with 2019, which I use as a reference. So we are getting there. In our case, I think you should expect the expense ratio keep on improving. So but it's getting to normal. And on the health insurance in the market as a whole, I think average premiums are going up. At the end, I explained it before, they start to go up by mid June 2020, and that is the tendency in the market. In our case, I mean, we have a positive gap in terms of average premiums with clients. I think our average premium is in the neighborhood of €100 below that of the market, I mean. But pressure upwards is, yes, it's on the market. What we are doing on the health insurance business is being very cautious on the underwriting, very careful. And as you can see, our loss ratio has improved quite a bit. It's below the 100%. And of course, working on the expense ratio even though we are in an investment process right now in this business. So yes, health insurance average premiums are going up. And in the case of Linea Eta, they are going up a little bit, but we maintain that positive gap with the market. Mario is also asking, please explain the good performance of financial income in the 3rd quarter and expectations going forward? Financial income, I tried to explain before. Basically, the good performance, which I think we posted 21% improvement on 2020, was basically done by an extraordinary income in 1 position that we have. We held a position on an energy fund that the issuer decide to repurchase. So we didn't have any chance to retain that position. And the realized gains in that position was very, very good. I think it was 2.1x our investments. That is if you take out that extraordinary income, I think the result was 6.4% down. Looking forward, well, we are not very bullish on the investment return of the investment portfolio, not for linear electron or for the market. Our return as of September was 2.8%. And I think if you take out that extraordinary, we are more in the neighborhood of 2.10. Happy if I'm able to have a flat comparison next quarter. It's very difficult and it's very difficult for the market. The good thing for Line Director is that we are much less reliable on financial income than our competitors. I mean, we are a company that will sell insurance, and we don't do any trading on the portfolio. We don't use the portfolio to make extraordinary income. Basically, we live on deals and we live on dividends. And finally, Mario is asking, please explain on plans for Tier 1 issuance. Well, I didn't got I didn't understand the question. I don't know if you have any plans for issuing. For issuing, I believe he means any Tier 1 or Tier 2 capital. Not for the moment. It's not something that we have in the road map. I mean, we are happy with the capital structure of the company. Of course, there is room for improvement there, but it's not something that really rings a bell nowadays. We'll see in the medium term. I think capital requirements for the year has been much more or less stable, especially in the second half of the year. I mean, I think capital requirements improved by €1,000,000 and our own funds, they were €4,000,000 lower than the previous. So no intentions today of issuing any Tier 1, any Tier 2. Of course, again, it's something that we always value. But as of today, we are very comfortable on the capital structure of the company. Thank you, Carlos. Okay. So it seems that there are no further questions. So this concludes our meeting. Thank you very much for your time. Bye. Thank you. Have a nice weekend.