Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining nine months 2023 trading update conference call. As we always do on quarterly results, our CEO, Ismael Clemente, will provide you with the main highlights of the period and will thereafter open the line for Q&A. For those of you who want to ask questions, please press star followed by number five. With no further delay, I pass the floor to Ismael. Thank you.
Thank you, Inés. Good afternoon, everyone. Well, we are here today to report on another solid set of results of Merlin Properties up to the third quarter of 2023. Many of you might remember that during the full year results presentation, 2022, we commented that our expectation for the year was a relatively strong first half on significant inertia from a positive 2022, and a slightly softer second half. Probably what we didn't have the opportunity to comment was the order of magnitude of that predicted softening, which has clearly been lower in impact than we expected. While in 2022, as of today, we had renewed 74% of our contracts with a 6.2% inflation average.
This year, it's been 70% of the contracts with 5.7% inflation average. This is why the second half is slightly, a little tad, softer than the first, but clearly, well above our expectations. Particularly, offices, where our asset management team has made a great effort in keeping occupancy stable and obtaining not only full pass-through on the rents on the inflation, but also in terms of achieving modest release spreads in the renewals. Likewise, our logistics team has covered a fantastic quarter. Occupancy is now reaching 99%, which is an all-time high for us. And, you know, it continues to underline the strength of the logistics business in Spain, for which we can subsequently comment during the Q&A.
In shopping centers, we are amazed by the strength of consumer demand in Spain. Both like-for-like and re-spread have been significantly high. And we continue to see good performance through the Black Friday campaign and the Christmas campaign, if nothing goes wrong, specifically at a local level. Occupancy overall of the company has reached a new high at 96%, which is remarkable because it is no longer positively affected by the 100% occupancy of the BBVA portfolio. So it is, you know, that is important to note.
Regarding our data center program, we have delivered our three data centers on time on the 13th of September in Madrid, Barcelona, and Bilbao to the anchor client, and are currently working on a number of initiatives in order to continue furthering our pioneering effort in that line of business. Our NTA per share, with no revaluations in the period, stands at EUR 15.49, whatever it means nowadays. But this is our NTA at present. Without further comment, I am happy to take your questions.
We remind you that, to raise questions, you have to press star followed by five. We already have a question. It comes from the line of Mariano Miguel from Banco Santander. Mariano, the line is yours.
Good afternoon everyone and thank you for taking my question. I got a few questions on the MEGA Plan, and then one on offices.
Mariano, sorry, but we cannot hear you very well.
We hear you very little.
Now, now it's better? Now? Can you hear me?
Much better.
Better.
Thank you.
Okay. So first of all, thank you for taking my questions. I got a few on the MEGA Plan and then one on offices. So first, we've seen recently different articles talking about a potential acceleration of the whole plan, pointing towards different options involving, in some of them, corporate transactions. So I was wondering if you could give us a bit of color on this. And then in the nine-month release, you revised upwards the expected yield on cost on the first 58 megs of the plan. So on one side, it would be interesting to understand the reasons behind, on one side, the higher CapEx, on the other, the much higher rental income foreseen. And also, how should we think about the next phase of the plan in terms of potential returns? And finally, on offices, sorry for the, that long.
It seems that the year will finish better than expected. You've been able to renew an important contract maturing in 2024. So if you could provide a little of color on the expectations for the next exercise and also on the re-lease spread on that new contract, that would be welcome. Thank you very much.
Okay. Look, well, first, regarding the press article on how we are planning to act on data centers, what I can comment is that we have, as commented, finished and delivered on time our three structures with, you know, fitted with 3 MW each, so for a total of 9 MW . Clearly, we have been mistaken in the estimate of the demand that we will find in the market. We have been too prudent.
In the general shareholders meeting, we already hinted to shareholders in April that the first phase of technology demonstration of our data centers, in which we intended to reach 12 MW commercialized and three data centers open by end of 2024, was to be construed as 15 MW-18 MW by end of 2024. Then, in our results presentation in July, pertaining to the first half, we already commented that we were placing orders of equipment in light of the demand, in order to reach approximately 33 MW equipped by end of 2024.
That's why when you see in our presentation the, CapEx breakdown, you will see that there is CapEx till end of 2024, and then there is a little CapEx also to be incurred during 2025, in order to reach the 58 MW capacity, which is total in our three existing facilities. What I can share with you now is that we have activated an acceleration of orders so that those 33 MW can be fitted in our facilities up to 30th of June. So we will probably be already, you know, endowed with 33 MW as of end of June, and we will continue fitting during the rest of the year and throughout 2025, up to reaching the maximum capacity of 58 MW.
Although, that might as well accelerate, depending on how we see, not even demand, how we see the installation of our clients, within our facilities, which, as you know, by nature in this world of data centers, is relatively staggered. At present, our order book more than covers all of our available capacity. So now we are embarked in, basically a next step, which is addition of capacity. This problem is further, slightly aggravated by the fact that we have had some problems with the staggered delivery of capacity in Madrid, but it will be significantly compensated with the fact that we might probably repower to a superior power in Barcelona. So we are doing things, basically keeping track with, with our many times revised business plan.
The demand we are encountering in the market, it is important to highlight that, we had devised a business plan that was mainly intended for cloud services. The truth is that the reality we are finding is that we are signing between 10%-20% of our capacity with cloud services, and 80% or more with generative AI operators. So the game changer clearly has been generative AI, which is also helpful because it brings cash flows slightly closer to moment zero, which is good. And you can achieve slightly better pricing than you can achieve in cloud. Hence, why we have now shown our most recently recalculated yields on cost gross. Of course, then there is a gross to net that you need to take into account, which in data centers can be significant.
The other nuances that generative AI bring to the table are bigger orders in, generally speaking, but those bigger orders come at the price of a much more significant scrutiny on the technical due diligence. Because, of course, they need to be fully operational on day one, and, you know, they check every aspect of your technical operation, and that simply delays a little bit the moments between reservation and signature of contracts.
On our side, there is also the need for a more thorough credit analysis, because we are talking about significant. I mean, significant backlogs, and we need to check that those backlogs are good enough. You know, the contract negotiation, however, could be slightly easier, always taking into account that in converting an American work order made by email into a Spanish lease law, a 180-page contract, is never easy. It is exactly the same, but you need to convince your counterparty that it is exactly the same. So there is always some time lag in the middle. Hence, why we have decided basically to go the route of playing with statistics and covering our order book more than one, so that we can have replacement in case somebody finally falls in the last minute.
Next steps, which are important for our business is, well, first, sign all leases and fill up to the maximum all of our capacity. As soon as this is achieved, start the second building in Arasur, which will be good for 48 MW IT power. That is, Arasur is Basque Country, which is, you might remember, is the landing station for MAREA, for Grace Hopper, and at the end of next year, 2024, we will be also welcoming Anjana, the biggest subsea cable from the U.S., which is being laid out by Meta as we speak. The other next step, which is important for us, is obtaining the license in Lisbon, because we are seeing significant demand for that 100 MW generative AI campus.
The location, the Lisbon location is extremely attractive for engineers across the pond. So this is basically where we are in terms of development of our MEGA Plan. And you have also your explanation of Gilam cost and next phases. Regarding speculation in the media about capital increases, et c., first, let's do a recap of where this need comes from. Basically, we devised for our board of directors a business plan that encompassed, you know, readying 58 MW-70 MW, whatever was good to reach approximately EUR 75 million of income by end of 2027. That meant basically five years. The cost for this oscillated between EUR 520 million and EUR 640 million, more or less.
We are good for those figures, but those figures were spread in five years, and what we have found is that we will probably need to incur in such CapEx in less than two years. While this means a certain stress to our P&L, it is not a stress that we cannot cope with. So clearly, we are good, and we can more or less easily cover that kind of CapEx. The problem lies with the remainder of the 178 MW of IT capacity that we have in our belly, which in our original business plan, if you look at what we explained to you during the analyst presentation, the capital markets day in Barcelona, those 178 MW spread to 2035 and beyond.
If because of the market strength, we need to bring those 178 MW to something closer, meaning 2026, 2027, that means the plus, we are not holding our horses. I mean, we continue working on a series of new projects in Spain and Portugal, trying to secure power in our in existing land or buildings of ours, plus also looking at third-party assets. So if we need to bring all that expense closer, that means we need something between EUR 1.6 billion-EUR 2 billion CapEx, in order to build the remainder EUR 170 million all at once.
You know, that although you might think this is a luxury problem, of course, it is a luxury problem, but it, from a managerial standpoint, it is a problem, so we need to tackle it. We need to have a course of action decided beforehand in the company in order to tackle that difference, numerical difference, and acceleration of CapEx. The possibilities are varied. There will be one possibility, which is simply to releverage the company. Many of you say, "Okay, you can do it, because it's bottom of the cycle, and interest rates will go down, and you can do it safely." Yes, but I don't think a company like this with EUR 11 billion in assets, we should go to the casino and play all of it on the 2027 red.
I believe, we have to act a little bit more prudently than that. And I'm sure that Miguel Ollero, who is by my side, our CFO, will sleep better if we do things on a more prudent way than simply re-leveraging to the bones. The other possibility, clearly, is bringing in capital, and that capital can be brought in downstairs, I mean, at the data center subsidiary level or upstairs. We have engaged in preliminary discussions with our BOD, which have meant also a number of checks with some Spanish-based investment banks. And we have been looking at the different options that we have in front of us, if we need to raise capital for that, let's say, accelerated expansion in data centers. As you know, 70% of the employees of this company are shareholders.
So, rest assured, as we have commented in many occasions, that we are not stupid, and we are not going to provoke a capital raising at the top core level at current share prices, even if they have significantly improved, and will probably continue improving, as compared to the moment in which we started discussions with the BOD regarding this possibility. However, we have calculated returns for investors, and we believe pretty interesting returns can be achieved by an investor at certain levels of entry price that will reflect a fair valuation of the company, hence a significant premium compared to current trading levels. What will end up happening? We don't know.
We will try to act in the best interest of existing shareholders because we are existing shareholders, and all the R&D of this company towards having the promising data center activity that we are having today has been born since 2018 by the existing shareholders. Therefore, you know, our respect to the existing shareholder base is maximum, and we will do whatever we believe is best for the interest of shareholders. Of course, this is a two-way process. There will be a counterparty in front of us, which will argue in terms of pricing, and we will try to do our best to achieve a good solution for all parties involved.
Recognizing that if we want to accelerate, the data center expansion business plan, which is in the best interest of everybody, including existing shareholders, we will need to engage in such discussions with the capital provider. So that is all I can comment as of today on data centers. Many thanks.
There was a second question. Mariano, can you remind us? It was about offices, so we could hear you very well.
It was simply. Sorry, because I know it took really long. It's simply about color on the expectations of offices and the re-lease spread on the contract with Indra. How was that?
Okay. Look, Mariano, on re-lease spread, I wish I had an idea. What I can tell you.
For Indra.
Ah, for Indra?
Yeah, we're not providing.
Ah, okay. A specific contract information, we cannot provide it to you, but I can tell you that the A1 has positive re-lease spread. Okay? So despite all the myths and legends, we have achieved positive re-spread on A1 contracts, which is not only Indra, there are some others, but Indra is, let's say, big.
Right.
Okay. Thank you very much.
Expectations for 2024. Look, I wish I had a crystal ball. I don't have it. Clearly, as we have commented in many cases, there is, I would say, a communication between CPI pass-through and re-spread. So it is obvious that in an environment of high inflation, you are always eating and eating on your reversionary potential vis-à-vis the market. And the clients that accept a full CPI pass-through sometimes protest a significant re-spread and vice versa. If they accept a high re-spread, they want you to cap at least the first year of inflation. So it is up to our office teams to negotiate the best solution possible for the company, knowing that both ingredients go anyway into like-for-like.
So whether it is full pass-through or it is a re-spread, they all go in offices. Providing more color on the market, I can tell you that so far, the fears that come from the other side of the Atlantic are not pretty much at present, applicable to our market. As commented in other calls, one ubiquitous behavior that we are seeing in our clients is that they normally mistakenly calculate their needs for space. We have recently had an anecdotal evidence with a very big client that contracted with us a number of square meters. We thought they were approximately 20% short of what they really needed, and told them openly that they were wrong. But they, of course, told us that their bosses in the U.S. expected them to reduce the square meters for the sake of reducing.
The end result has been that we have, finally ended up signing a contract with a 100% owned subsidiary, that takes us exactly to the same situation that we indicated to them at the very beginning. This is repeated all across the portfolio. We have other clients in also recently inaugurated buildings in Castellana, which, initially left one or two, floors empty, that we knew they will, and they would end up occupying. So what we did is, temporarily, we occupied them with, you know, Loom, co-working spaces, and at the end, they have been reclaimed back by the clients. So I see, people swimming in uncertainty, as, you know, probably everybody else in the world. But I don't see a significant weakening of, the office demand.
If there is some weakening, it's, again, more owing to uncertainty than it is to a softened economic activity, which at some point might come. But for the moment, employment in Spain remains good and economic activity remains good. So we would expect, normally, a pretty reasonable 2024. I, but I cannot tell you whether super good year, super bad year, but I would expect a reasonable 2024.
Thank you, Mariano.
Thank you very much for the answers.
We have another question from Fernando Abril, coming from Alantra. Fernando, the floor is yours.
Hi. Thank you very much for the presentation. I have a few questions. One, feedback from Mariano's. So it's about offices again. So I don't know if you can comment on your current reversionary potential you have on your office portfolio regarding prices. Then, second is on shopping centers . So trends continued super strong, but you know, my question is on renewals again. Still few renewals year to date, but you face a big amount in 2024, no? So I was wondering if you can comment on your expectations based on the conversations you may be having with tenants, and if you expect neutral or positive re-lease spreads in 2024. And third, data centers.
Thank you very much, because you comment a lot on this topic. Just on your CapEx expectations and your rental expectations for the next 2-3 years, I don't know if how this would change if you start working on the Lisbon data center. Thank you.
Mm-hmm. Okay. Look, on offices, reversionary potential. Look, I don't have it handy with me, but the one that we internally calculate, but I tell you for sure it is now lower than 10%. Okay? So let's leave it there. Although it is important to note that the market continues going up. So, you know, every lease we have been signing in Ruiz Picasso 11 has been at a higher rate than the previous one, and that trend is continuing, and we know of particularly small leases, which are being signed by some of the boutique specialists in the Madrid market, like Murtra, etc. , at rents starting with EUR 500. Okay, so that is very interesting and provides us with a very interesting comparable for our lease up activity.
So we don't really see a significant softening as is evident in some other places in the world, particularly in the U.S., and a little bit also in London, which is where those fears are coming from, basically. At some point, if there is an economic softening, everything is possible, but not for the moment. Some interesting themes which we are seeing in the market are as follows: One is new supply has never been a problem in Madrid and Lisbon, but what I can tell you is that at present, it's zero, means nonexistent.
I mean, nobody is really now building anything in offices because, you know, that the wave of negativity on the asset class, which is coming from across the pond, has reached you know, the capital sources and the debt sources, and it is not easy to finance or fund an office project. Well, the second thing, which is important, is that we are starting to see the first signs of some stock destruction as a consequence of office to Resi Reconversions. We are protagonists in a number of them, here and there, small things, but everything counts. But we are seeing that as a widespread trend in the market, which is also helped by the more pro-business regulation, which is starting to be applied in a number of Spanish cities, barring probably Barcelona.
Okay, so that is what we see, and this will, of course, contribute to the market finding new balance and, you know, re-liquidifying itself at some point in the future. Because at present, as commented on many occasions, the investment market is mainly now down to transactions with family offices in the EUR 30 million-EUR 60 million ticket maximum, and there is, at present, no institutional capital chasing office assets in the market. Regarding shopping centers and our expectations for renewals in 2024, I can tell you that at present, our stance is positive. I have here with me, Luis Lázaro, who is the head of retail and logistics in the company, and he's giving me his thumbs up.
So basically, that means that the wall of renewals that you are eventually seeing in our presentations, you need to know that a significant part of it is the one year revolving renewals pertaining to one or two big clients, namely one big client, which also always operates on a one year revolving basis. But as you might know, that big client has you know left us completely aside from the significant closure program that they have conducted in the past. Well, the rest is, I would say, ordinary renewals that will be tackled in due time with no specific concern about whether the client will renew or not.
Of course, I can provide more color during the full year results, depending on how we see the Black Friday and Christmas campaign, and if we start seeing something different, we will be the first to comment differently. But at present, this is what we see. Regarding data centers and the Lisbon artificial intelligence campus, yes, the Lisbon campus brings a slightly different CapEx, higher CapEx, because it sits on a riverbank on a highly seismic territory. So that means basically that you need to provide for a number of construction solutions, which make the CapEx a little heavier than in other assets. However, rents also look significantly better than in other locations, given the desirability of a Lisbon secondment to American engineers.
So we are, I mean, happy with the numbers, and we will, of course, provide reprojected numbers as soon as we start and have evidence on the real costs, when we have costed and priced correctly the project.
Okay. Thank you very much.
You're welcome.
So the next question comes from the line of Florent Laroche , [the model]. Lauren, the line is yours.
Yes, hello, good afternoon. So thank you for all this information. Maybe I would have a question maybe on your disposal plan and valuation of assets. I noted that you have a budget for this year, maybe of to dispose between EUR 80 million-EUR 100 million. So, I don't know if you have any discussion in progress as of today, and I don't know if you could give us any comment on the current campaign for the valuation of assets. And maybe on another question on the logistics, could you please remind us what is the pace expected for the development of the future warehouses in your portfolio?
Okay. Well, regarding the disposal program, we have a budget for the year of between EUR 80 million and EUR 100 million. We are perfectly on track to make it good. The only difference could be timing, because there could be one or two transactions that might slip into the beginning of 2024, because everything now is a little bit more difficult in terms of signature, or, let's say, between head of terms to due diligence and signature, it takes a little bit more time than it used to take in the past. But that budget is perfectly good, probably to be exceeded, because we are the first party interested, of course, in providing as much recycling of capital as possible to feed our data center program.
Valuations on those disposals, at present, all of them above gross asset value. I know might look impossible, but it is the situation at present. I mean, of course, we have no problem. If we need to dispose an asset at or slightly below books, we will have no problem at all doing so. But at present, this is not the case overall on our disposal program. Regarding valuations, as of 31st December, at present, we don't have visibility yet because we haven't had yet the preliminary meetings with the valuers. But I can tell you that you should expect lower valuations. Why? Because of not expanding cap rates. So let's be frank about it. Everybody knows there is no point in you know, acting in denial of that.
And by the way, with NTA at EUR 15.50 and being trading at EUR 9, you know, there should be no special problem in bringing that NTA down a little bit, so that the NTA and the reality approach little by little, which I hope will end up closing the gap by both things, reducing the NTA and increasing the share price. The important to say also that at present, the gross variation in valuations is still to be significantly offset by a better operational performance. This company continues creating Alpha, plus CPI continues helping us for the moment. So as you have seen in the past, you know, shopping centers in gross terms have probably adjusted close to 30% since before COVID.
However, when you look at net, the difference is not that big because part of that difference in cap rate expansion has been absorbed by better than expected performance or breaking performance. Same is true for offices and, well, logistics, in which in some cases we have gone even positive, like in the first half of the year. That is all on all logistics. You made the question of at which moment we are starting the 180,000 sq m. They will be started between end of this year and beginning of next, with the idea to have them ready, if at all possible, some before year end or beginning of 2025. So we are progressing with that logistic program, business as usual.
Okay, thank you very much. That's very useful.
You're welcome.
The next question comes from the line of Jonathan Kownator from Goldman Sachs. Jonathan, the floor is yours.
Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. So, probably three. One, just to finish on the logistics theme. So can you comment, so how much you intend to spend CapEx? I know you had also land reserves, so are you gonna put these plans on hold given the data center requirements, or are you continuing to, you know, to plan for that? Second question, just on the data centers very quickly, would you consider to spin off that business given the significant CapEx requirement, or do you want to keep it under Merlin? And, let's start by these two, and then we can talk about the office pipeline afterwards, and I'll specify. Thanks.
Data center spin off. Okay. Look, on the, on logistics, well, you have a reconciliation of what we are starting and what remains in our, belly on page four of the presentation. There, you will see that the 180 sq m that we are about to start involve a CapEx of around EUR 109 million for an expected gross rental income of EUR 10.4 million, and therefore, a yield on cost in the region of EUR 7.4 million. Regarding the remainder, the 425,000 sq m that we keep in our balance sheet, our present cost estimate is in the region of EUR 233 million. Okay.
The expected gross rental income is close to EUR 25 million for a yield on cost at or above 7%. The reason why, if you divide gross rental income by pending CapEx, you get to 10%, and we say the yield is 7%, is cost of land. I mean, basically, it is land that we already own because we bought it in 2016, 2017, 2018, and we are keeping it basically at cost in our balance sheet. So that is on logistics and land reserve. Then on the DC, you made a question regarding the possibility of a spin-off. Jonathan, can you repeat the question?
Yeah . Just to consider, obviously, I mean, if you keep b ecause obviously one of the options in terms of funding, I mean, you can raise, you know, IPO at the top core, you could raise funding at the sort of, you know, subsidiary level, so just the data center. But you could also consider spinning off that data center to raise equity directly from the market in the data centers.
Yeah.
Just wondering that, whether that was an option or not.
My thoughts on this, they are very preliminary, but my thoughts on this are as follows. It is going to be mainly a mathematical decision. So wherever we can achieve better pricing for the shareholders of the company, we will carry out the transaction. So we are going to be relatively agnostic on where to execute it. However, one thing that I can tell you out of experience is that the type of people which is approaching us for an investment at the DC subsidiary level tend to be higher cost of capital than the people approaching us for a top co investment. So we will need to play with that peculiarity when doing our calculations, because, you know, it makes a big difference. And the second thing, which is important, is SOCIMI regime.
I mean, spinning off, I mean, playing with boxes, M&A style in, in a company which is subject to a very strict legal regime, is not that easy. So, you know, we need to double-check what can be done and how this can be achieved. Plus, there is a problem regarding staffing. You know, do you take staff from the top and send it downstairs? Not easy. So we need to check the different alternatives. We need to check the different characteristics of the different business plans which are offered to us and take the decision, which is in the best interest of our shareholders.
Okay, very clear. Just last question. So on the office pipeline, I mean, obviously, you mentioned in your disclosure that you've got a number of projects in offices as well. I don't think there was details as of Q3, so just wanted to understand, you know, what is the status of the main project, Plaza Ruiz Picasso, Attica One, PLZSA. What is the status of these projects? Thank you.
Look, on the office pipeline, Ruiz Picasso is about to be delivered to the first client on the 1st of December. So remaining CapEx in that building is only the, let's say, the payments to the construction company, which normally go a number of days or months after the works are executed, and they have been verified by our project management people. Regarding other office projects, we are not doing anything big or which, you know, can really move the needle in terms of the company. We are doing some refurbishment of buildings in Cerro de los Gamos with 100%, you know, occupancy, and we are going little by little.
So as we are emptying one building, we are pre-letting the next, and, you know, we are little by little refurbishing all that location. You know, there is Lisbon Liberdade Building, which, you know, at present, we are in the middle of the licensing project. So till we don't achieve license, it is a little bit premature to comment on that project. And what basically this is at present, this building is 100% occupied, I mean, by Novo Banco, so we are in no rush to start at that reconversion. So on offices, we will continue doing business as usual. We are a company.
Offices have not disappeared from our balance sheet, so whether you like it more or you like it less, we need to continue doing some investment in offices because we need to upkeep our portfolio state-of-the-art, because this is what is giving us a 24% market share, in terms of letting, when we are only 4% market share in terms of space in Madrid, or Barcelona or Lisbon, for argument's sake.
Just, I mean, if it's possible, I mean, and that can be taken off fine, but it'd be good to have a bit of disclosure of how much CapEx do you expect for that, for the project, for the project, the empty buildings, if they are empty or not, and you know, the size of these buildings, that'd be helpful because we're kind of losing track a bit of what's, what's becoming vacant for reset. Thanks.
I recommend, Jonathan, you call Inés, and they will provide you with all the details you need in terms of the CapEx in offices.
Of course. Thank you.
So apparently, there are no further questions. We thank you all for joining today's call, and as said, we remain at your disposal for any further questions or comments. As always, you can reach us by phone or email. So that's all. Thank you very much and have a great weekend. Bye-bye.