Puig Brands, S.A. (BME:PUIG)
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Earnings Call: Q3 2024

Oct 29, 2024

Speaker 1

Good evening, and thank you for joining us this evening as we discuss our sales update for the ninth month and third quarter that ended on September 30, 2024. Today, we have with us our Chairman and CEO, Marc Puig, and our CFO, Joan Albiol. Marc will share some brief remarks, and then we will open up the line for Q&A. You will find this presentation and the press release on our website, and you will be able to access a replay of these comments shortly on our website. Thank you.

Marc Guasch
Chairman and CEO, Puig

Good evening, everyone. Before we dive into the latest results, let me quickly run through the strength of our portfolio of love brands. We're driven by a focus on premium beauty. We have three brands in the top 10 fragrance rankings worldwide, and we're building a niche portfolio and striving to diversify further into makeup and skincare. We are brand owners and curators. Today, our own brand represents 96% of the net revenues from our love brands. With that, let's turn to the update. We are pleased to report an acceleration in Q3 versus first half, with 11.6% like-for-like growth in net revenue and 11.1% on a reported basis. In this third quarter, Puig delivered record sales of EUR 1.3 billion, and we continue to outperform the premium beauty market.

This resulted in a robust performance in the first nine months of 2024, with net revenue of €3.4 billion, which represents 9.6% like-for-like growth and a 10.1% increase on a reported basis, well in line with our medium-term guidance provided at IPO and well ahead of the premium beauty market. In addition to the strong performance that we have seen this quarter, we are further encouraged by the performance of Puig in recent weeks. Turning to the drivers of this performance, the €3.4 billion of net revenues were a result of 9.6% like-for-like growth, 1.4% from the acquisition of Dr. Barbara Sturm, and a negative 0.8% impact from foreign exchange. The key driver was the very strong performance from our core business, fragrance and fashion in both EMEA and the Americas.

With a double-digit growth in this segment, we continue to reinforce our competitive position and capture incremental value market share. This was further complemented by a much-improved performance in makeup this quarter, as a gap between sell-in and sell-out, which we spoke about in the first half, continues to narrow. Further, we saw incremental organic growth from our skincare segment in addition to the contribution from Dr. Barbara Sturm. As a reminder, given the categories we are most exposed to, we tend to generate more sales in the second half of the year due to the importance of the holiday season. If we have a look at the evolution of growth of this year, we saw a clear acceleration in Q3 versus the first half of 2024. This last quarter, we delivered 11.6% like-for-like growth.

The change of perimeter contributed an additional 1.3% increase, partially offset by a negative foreign exchange impact of minus 1.7%, resulting in reported growth of 11.1%. Let me share some more color on the performance of each of our business segments. We are a leader in the thriving fragrance market, which benefits from very strong underlying trends and robust customer demand. Fragrance and fashion continued its strong momentum in the third quarter, with revenues up 11.1%, driven by EMEA and the Americas. In the first nine months of 2024, this segment generated net revenues of EUR 2.5 billion, an increase of 10.9% on both the reported and constant perimeter basis compared to 2023. This segment contributed 73% of Puig's net revenue in the period.

During Q3, we delivered the noteworthy launch of Million Gold by Rabanne, and we also launched Venus by Nina Ricci, the first new fragrance from the Nina brand in 10 years. We saw continued strength in our prestige brands in this quarter. According to our estimates, Good Girl by Carolina Herrera maintained its number 2 position among female fragrances, and Le Male by Jean Paul Gaultier secured the number 3 position among masculine lines, further solidifying their market leading positions within the top 10 brands globally. We now have three brands on the top 10 prestige fragrance ranking worldwide. We also saw increasing momentum in niche, which delivered double-digit growth. Makeup grew plus 7.3% in Q3 as the gap between sell-in and sell-out narrowed, as anticipated. The segment saw strong growth in EMEA and improving performance in the Americas, while APAC continued to show softness.

For the nine-month period of 2024, this segment recorded a net revenue of EUR 535 million, an increase of 1.4% on a reported and constant perimeter basis against 2023. This segment contributed 16% of Puig's net revenue in the period. Q3 2024 marked the return of the makeup segment into positive growth territory. The sell-out for the largest brand within makeup, Charlotte Tilbury, remained strong, with double-digit growth in its largest markets, EMEA and the Americas. The recently launched Exagger-Eyes Volume Mascara is off to a good start. Further to the comment that we made on dupes during the first half, we are responding to this situation with creativity and innovation in a way that is very authentic to the brand.

As a reminder for Q4, growth in the segment will face a tougher comparison due to the pipeline sell-in related to the entry of Charlotte Tilbury into Ulta at the end of 2023. Skincare showed double-digit sales growth of 18.6% on a reported basis and 5.2% at constant perimeter in Q3. The dermocosmetics brands in this segment continued to perform strongly with double-digit growth, while this segment faced a tougher comparative base, primarily due to the impact of meaningful launches, including Magic Water Cream in the second half of 2023. For the nine-month period of 2024, skincare delivered EUR 381 million in net revenue. This is an increase of 22.9% on a reported basis and 9.4% at constant perimeter against the same period of 2023.

This segment represented 11% of Puig's net revenues in the period. The integration of Dr. Barbara Sturm is on track, and the brand continues to perform in line with expectations, having contributed 1.4% for nine months 2024. EMEA remained Puig's largest and fastest-growing region, with an acceleration of sales in Q3 up 12.6% at constant perimeter, reinforcing Puig's leading position across categories. For the nine-month period of 2024, EMEA achieved net revenue of EUR 1.8 billion, up 11.3% at constant perimeter compared to the first nine months of 2023. The Americas also delivered a standout performance in Q3, with robust growth of 8.3% at constant perimeter, fueled by the continued strong momentum in fragrance and the performance of makeup. For the nine-month period of 2024, the region achieved EUR 1.3 billion in net revenue, up 7.5% at constant perimeter compared to the same period in 2023.

Without the negative impact of unfavorable currencies, our constant perimeter growth for the Americas would have been well into the double digits. We wanted to note that in Q4 2023, Puig accounted for a negative hyperinflation adjustment for Argentina, which will allow for an easier comparison for Q4 2024. This impact primarily affected our fragrance and fashion segment.

In APAC, a region where Puig is underexposed, sales increased by 1% in Q3 amid continued market challenges. This region contributed 8% of our sales for the quarter. This translated to EUR 308 million in net revenue for the first nine months of 2024, up 0.8% year-on-year basis, both on a reported and constant perimeter basis. The company continues to invest at a measured pace in the region for the long term, including China, where we have a limited presence, and in India, Japan, and South Korea, where we have recently established subsidiaries.

Our business has delivered a strong performance in the first nine months of 2024, and we are encouraged by the business performance in the last few weeks. We remain very confident in our ability to deliver for fiscal year 2024 in line with our midterm guidance. We manage a diversified and curated portfolio of brands and continue to feel encouraged by our consolidated performance across our complementary brands and segments, which balance different and evolving market dynamics.

Thanks, Marc. With that, we come to the end of our prepared remarks, and we will begin Q&A.

Operator

The next question comes from Olivier Nicolai from GS. Please go ahead.

Olivier Nicolaï
Head of Consumer Staples Research, Goldman Sachs

Hi, good evening, Marc, Joan, and Michael. Got three questions, please. First of all, in fragrance, how should we think about inventory level as we enter the Q4 period, and what has been the feedback from the key retailers into this festive season, which is coming up? Linked to that, actually, Million Gold appears to be a major launch and quite a successful one. Would you be able to quantify the impact it had on the quarter, and will it be difficult Q4 as well? And just lastly, if I may, are you able to give a bit more details on the sell-out trends in makeup in the U.S., and how should we think about Q4 considering that you are lapping the launch in Ulta? Thank you very much.

Marc Guasch
Chairman and CEO, Puig

Thank you, Olivier. First question regarding the inventory levels and retailer feedback so far for Christmas season. Well, what I can say is that retailers are being quite bullish on the fragrance category. We've seen a little bit of consumer tough or tougher situation in general, but it's not the case with the fragrance category. So retailers are bullish, and they have been building up inventory for their expectations for the Christmas season. So at this point, we think that we are ready for the Christmas season, and we just have to wait to see how Christmas goes, which we will not know until the beginning of next year. Regarding the Million Gold, it's been a significant launch for Rabanne, and that was one of the initiatives we had for this brand, which was mainly in the second half, as we mentioned in our first half results.

As you say, the first indications are quite positive, and we're encouraged by the feedback we've had, but there's no more we can say at this point. These brands are, there's a dynamic behind the innovation of these brands, and it is important that we keep being relevant to consumers. So far, clearly, we have somehow, again, gotten the interest from consumers, so it looks very promising. Regarding the sell-out sell-in in Q4 for the U.S., what we can say is that in the case of makeup, the largest brand is Charlotte Tilbury, and we continue seeing double-digit growth in sell-out. What we said during the first half is that there was evidently a gap between sell-in and sell-out, which is being narrowed.

We still will see some impact on the last quarter, particularly because, as we mentioned, last year we opened Ulta, and so the comparison will be tough versus last year, but the gap between sell-in and sell-out is being progressively narrowed, and we think that by the end of the year, we'll be finished.

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from Celine Pannuti from JPM. Please go ahead.

Celine Pannuti
Managing Director, JPM

Thank you. Good evening, everyone. My first question, Marc, in your prepared or your commentary, you said it's a complex environment. Can you talk about what the beauty market is looking like in developed markets if I think about Europe and the US? One of your competitors in the US has been talking about a slowdown in the market, including in makeup. Are you also seeing that, even if you are recording good sell-out from Charlotte Tilbury? My second question is on Charlotte Tilbury, the makeup division. You just mentioned that the sell-in and sell-out is narrowing in the US. Can you talk about what you've seen in terms of sell-in issues that you had in Q2 in the Middle East and about China as well, the situation there with regard to makeup? And then coming back into fragrances, you mentioned that the market remains quite bullish about the category.

Are you seeing this both in Europe and in the U.S.? And what are you looking at? I mean, how is the market looking like as you look into 2025 in a context where other categories are also seeing some slowdown? Thank you.

Joan Ramis
CFO, Puig

Thank you, Celine. Regarding the complex environment, we mentioned this because, among other things, we are expecting an important election year in the U.S., among others, and we wouldn't know what's going to happen and what will be the outcome of that and what consequences it will have, and that's why we said, well, we are in a complex environment waiting for certain scenarios to clarify, and it's true that we've seen certain peers mentioning a slowdown in the U.S., but we're not seeing that, at least for the territory where we compete, which is premium beauty. Particularly in makeup, we see double-digit growth in sell-out with some of the challenges between sell-in and sell-out, as you know.

And in terms of fragrance, we've seen a strong Jean Paul Gaultier, a strong Good Girl for Carolina Herrera, and the fact that we still have in the U.S. market share that is below our worldwide market share, we believe that we still have room to continue growing faster than the market, so we're not seeing that, at least in our own business. Regarding makeup, sell-in, sell-out, it is true that we had mentioned certain gaps in the Middle East. We think that in this fourth quarter, that will be finished, and in some countries in APAC, we still have some gaps that will be finished. We plan by next year, so Middle East fourth quarter is already the gap is closed, and for the rest of APAC, it will be next year, and regarding next year for 2025, how do we see the market?

Clearly, particularly for fragrances, and you mentioned you're asking Europe and US, given that others are mentioning certain slowdown. It is very important to see, because it's a little early for us to comment on 2025, given the significant role that Christmas plays for this category. So we will be able to better assess the 2025 expectations or scenario once in the first quarter of next year, once we have the results of Christmas. Having said this, in our internal work that we're doing, does not give us any reason to deviate from our thoughts on market growth that we provided at IPO, which was that the market, we believe, will still grow at 6%, 7%, and this is a different number that we've heard from our peers, but remember that we compete in the premium sector, a strong position in fragrance and makeup.

In case of skincare, the largest player in our case is Derma Europe. So when we look at our specific perimeter and we have, as we mentioned, we're less exposed to others than on APAC, that means that our overall growth scenario at this point continues being what we had expressed during our IPO. I hope that this answers your question, Celine.

Celine Pannuti
Managing Director, JPM

Thank you. Yeah, thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Jeff Stent from BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.

Jeff Stent
Senior Equity Analyst, BNP Paribas Exane

Good evening. I was wondering if you would be able to tell us what proportion of your U.S. sales are manufactured outside the U.S., i.e., the products are imported into the U.S.? Thank you.

Marc Guasch
Chairman and CEO, Puig

Yes, Jeff. Basically, in our case, most, I would say more than 95% at least of our manufacturing happens in Europe. So we have no manufacturing plant or we don't buy from any U.S.-based manufacturing facility. We're basically a Europe-based cost company. Does this answer your question?

Jeff Stent
Senior Equity Analyst, BNP Paribas Exane

That's very, very clear. Thank you. Absolutely. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Mariano Szachtman from Santander. Please go ahead.

Mariano Szachtman
Equity Research Analyst, Santander

Yes, good evening. Thanks for taking my questions. Two for me, please. So the first one, it's on the performance within the third quarter. Have you seen any change in trends between, say, July and September or in early October within the three categories? That's my first one. And the second question, it's on the fragrance division. I mean, within the average growth, you've been highlighting Jean Paul Gaultier, but any other comment, any other color that you could provide on the performance of Carolina Herrera or Rabanne within the division above or below the average would be very helpful. Thank you.

Yeah. Regarding Q3 trend, not a major comment to make in the different, as we have seen the performance evolving through the different months. The only thing we can say is that given the feedback from retailers and the expectations for Christmas, and we had recently the duty-free show in Cannes that also gives you a sense of what's happening in that channel of distribution, we see optimism for this Christmas. Evidently, we'll have to see after the fact how things go, but overall, and we've seen this trend continued in the last month, so we are optimistic about the rest of the year. In terms of fragrance overall, what we can say is we did mention Jean Paul Gaultier because that was a brand that during the first half and continues has seen a significant momentum more than others. Maybe I can highlight a couple of things.

Number one, Rabanne, the biggest initiative this year was this Million Gold for her and for him with Gigi Hadid as a main character in the advertising campaign, so we knew that was an important moment for our largest brand. We see momentum for Carolina Herrera with Good Girl overall, and we have seen the first half. We mentioned that niche fragrances had seen a certain slowdown, particularly because of Byredo, which is the largest brand we have in niche, because since we took over 100% of the company, we bought the minority shareholder before the IPO, we used that opportunity to finish the integration of the whole company into our own organization, and that had a certain distraction for the team.

We've seen that integration mostly done, and we are now seeing in the third quarter and the second half a reacceleration of niche, and it has been growing, as we mentioned in our notes, a double digit. We believe that this territory that has been growing faster in the past few years, and we believe in our hypothesis that we'll continue growing going forward, and we are going to benefit also from that momentum. So maybe that's, yes, I think that's the highlights. We also launched Venus from Nina Ricci, which is the first time we launched a brand or a line within a brand in the last 10 years, but it has been limited to France in this first phase because we want to check the results there before thinking of an expansion.

But so far has been very well received too, but that will not change the needle in this year. I think, Mariano, that answers hopefully your questions.

Yes, super. Very helpful. Thank you very much, Marc.

Operator

The next question comes from José Rito from CaixaBank BPI. Please go ahead.

Fernando Abril-Martorell
Partner and Research Analyst, Alantra

Yes, hi, good evening to all. I have three quick questions. The first one in makeup. Just to confirm, you mentioned that you saw double-digit sales growth in the division Q3, the same as in H1. Just to confirm, you think Q3 the trends were stronger than in H1 or it was broadly stable? The second question on the more difficult comparison in makeup due to Ulta sales last year, if you can quantify in percentage points how much more difficult should we expect this to be in Q4? And finally, given your comments regarding comparison due to Argentina last year, should we assume even a stronger growth in fragrances in Q4 versus what it was in Q3? Thank you.

Marc Guasch
Chairman and CEO, Puig

José, I think the second question, I didn't get that question very clear. Can you repeat it?

Fernando Abril-Martorell
Partner and Research Analyst, Alantra

Yes, so the second question was on Ulta effect last year, so because of this, the comparison should be more difficult in Q4, as you mentioned in the release. If you can quantify in percentage points how much more difficult is the comparison in Q4?

Marc Guasch
Chairman and CEO, Puig

Yeah. First question, José, in terms of makeup, whether the double-digit growth for the makeup division, particularly with Charlotte Tilbury, that we saw in the first half, whether it has continued in the third quarter higher or lower. I think it's similar. We've seen a similar double-digit growth, sell-out in that sense that we saw in the first half. So no change at this point. In terms of whether we can quantify the impact in Q4 of the new launch, we will not go too much into that detail, if you allow us, because that would be too much, but it has an impact. So it's not insignificant, particularly for the makeup and skincare in Q4. We'll have a tough comparison versus the last quarter last year.

And then in terms of Argentina, if we can quantify, last year in December, when the peso argentino devalued, I think it was like 50%, and we had to redo all the accounts with the exchange rate of the last day of the year, in spite of Argentina being a very small country for us because it's less than 2%, the impact was EUR 36 million exactly. So evidently, the Q4 2024 will not have that unless things change for the last two months, but the peso argentino seems to be holding quite well so far. Then it will be an easier comparison for the fragrance and fashion category for Q4. Answers your question, José?

Operator

The next question comes from Fernando Abril-Martorell from Alantra. Please go ahead.

Fernando Abril-Martorell
Partner and Research Analyst, Alantra

Hello. Good evening. Thank you for taking my question. Most of them have already been answered. So only one. It's just on your plus 11.6% like-for-like sales growth. I would like, if possible, if you could please break down this growth into like-for-like in prices, product mix, and volumes just to get an idea of the growth drivers behind this. Thank you.

Joan Ramis
CFO, Puig

Hello, José. It's Joan. I think the continuation of price increase to growth doesn't deviate materially from what we discussed in the first half, so we see 5% average price increase, but we don't calculate that more than once a year, and it's difficult for us to quantify between price and volume and mix because all is related, so at year-end, we'll have an analysis on that, but you can take the 5% as we mentioned in the first half of price increase.

Fernando Abril-Martorell
Partner and Research Analyst, Alantra

Okay. Okay. Thank you very much.

Marc Guasch
Chairman and CEO, Puig

Very well. I hope that answers all your questions. Thank you very much. And we'll keep working for the fourth quarter because that's the most important for us, and we'll be focused to deliver on our promises. Thank you.

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