Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you very much for joining this call, which is aimed to present the results of Talgo for the first quarter 2024. Gonzalo Urquijo, CEO of the company, will go through the presentation that has been released, and at the end we will open a Q&A session. To make a question at the end, please raise your hand through the Teams platform, and we will enable your speaker. Thank you very much.
Good afternoon, to all, and thank you very much for joining this call. First of all, as in the first slide, please. As you see, Magyar Vagon presented a takeover bid for 100% of Talgo shares at EUR 5 per share. The CNMV admitted that offer on April 22nd. Now, this remains subject to CNMV approval after receiving their corresponding regulatory and antitrust authorizations. Little more than we can say on that point. Second point, which I think is great news, is the delivery and acceptance of the Renfe Avril, the very high-speed train. That has started for the last weeks, I would say, and for the moment we have already 15 trains that have been accepted. It is 11 that are variable gauge, four that are fixed gauge, and we will be having more in the following weeks.
Our target is to have, by the third quarter, approx to around the third quarter, to have at least the 27. Why 27 out of 30? Because we do have out of the three that are left, two are used now to get homologation as a couple train, as a double train, let's say, and the other one is the one we are using for all the tests in France. So that we believe that is great news for all of us. In terms of sustainability, we're always there. In terms of health, safety, and ESG, of course, improving our frequency rate and severity rate. Now, this year we'll see, and we should see, a high level of manufacturing activity, this leads to the upside in maintenance business.
As you know, we have a pipeline that is, as we'll see in the next page, much larger, but I would say a tangible one of EUR 3.5 billion. In terms of commercial success and backlog, we continue to have a very high backlog, and this gives us visibility over revenues and industrial activity for the next three years, I would say. Additionally to that, we have this recurring business that is a maintenance that continues, and all the new offers we're looking into all look in have maintenance included. Additionally to that, as we already said in our last presentation a few months ago, the share buyback was completed in January 2024, and it was 2% of share capital acquired, which is important. That was 80% of the shareholders who had right to this dividend, or this scrip dividend, decided to continue in the company.
In terms of the outlook, it's what it is. We remain there. I'll come back to it in our last page. Next page, please. Business performance. In terms of business performance, you know that our backlog is historical highs, around EUR 4 billion. Additionally to this in terms of manufacturing, this year is going to be very active, I would say, basically in three main projects. It'll be the Deutsche Bahn one, and we'll be starting soon with Deutsche Bahn two, and Danish one and two projects, and additionally we also have the what we call Trenhotel, the high-speed trains we are doing for Renfe that are the refurbishment of other trains, which is also important, very important contract for us.
In terms of maintenance, the business will continue stable, and we will have a new contract that will be the new very high-speed Avril train that will be incorporated. Last and not least, we continue with our new paradigms. You all remember well that we have two projects that have the adequate margin. Very important that these new projects that are coming in all have indexation, which allows us to, as these are long-term contracts, to at the end not have margin squeeze through inflation in that sense. And last and not least, for us it's very important all the new projects having positive cash flow, which is key, and have the adequate level of guarantees. What else can I share with you? We do see this sector and commercially continue strong.
I mean, in terms of European market and world markets, the global market in transport of, you know, mobility in our business due to decarbonization process, due to third parties that are private participants that have entered this market, is, as I said at the beginning, strong. Pipeline, even though the pipeline total is EUR 15 billion, I would say the one that is very close to us is around EUR 3.5 billion. Our main markets, as you very well know, is Europe. We are very focused on Western and also Central Europe also, and new, we're looking at new contracts in Eastern Europe. We also have the Middle East market, North Africa, and if there's any opportunity in the small spot market, we'll also be there if it makes sense in terms of profitability, risk, indexation, etc. Next page, please.
In terms of key figures we'll present to, as you all recall, in quarter one and quarter three, we don't present what is balance sheet figures. It's only the P&L figures. Now, as you see in Q1, we had EUR 126.7 last year in Q1 2023, and this year we're up 31% with EUR 166.5. Been important in growth. Now, you may compare it to a previous quarter, and we are somewhat lower, but we had have I think that is due to seasonality, and then we did have January, and then Easter, for fell into the first quarter. But at the end, I would say that it's going to be strong, as I said before, the Renfe powerheads, DB, DSB. So we'll be strong in terms of revenues.
In terms of EBITDA, we are 34% above last year's first quarter with EUR 20.1 million and a 12% EBITDA margin as an average, as you very well know, of the maintenance and manufacturing. Now, we continue working hard in the industrial plan that is improving our execution, clearly, and as you know, as I said before, we do have indexation in all the new contracts. I think it's important to note that our net income here is EUR 10.4 million, which is clearly, I would say, if I'm not mistaken and I recall correctly, I think it's double of what we had last year. Last but not least, in terms of outlook, we're going to confirm our outlook.
Somebody could say, "But what you're talking of an EBITDA of EUR 11.5 million and you're having EUR 12 million." But we thought it was, and agreed in the board we had today that it was more prudent to continue leaving it in circa EUR 11.5 million, and we'll see how the following months continue evolving. Last and not least, in order to try and pre-answer some of your questions, in terms of U.S.A., the LACMTA legal case, we continues. We are in the phase of discovery. Little more I can say on that. In terms of Renfe, you remember they sent us a first letter, I think it was the 28th July 2022, and we answered to that with a fully fledged reply, while we think there was no reason for the penalties. Additionally to that, they sent us a letter a few months ago.
We've also answered, and we've even used an external advisor for this, who has done a full report on it, and we continue believing that Talgo is not liable for this. In terms of dividend, we are in the middle of our takeover, so the board has decided for the moment there's no news on this point. So thank you very much for your attention, and we're open to your questions.
As commented before, you can use either the chat or the marking to raise the hand in Teams if you want to make any question. José Antonio, please, go ahead.
Hi. Can you hear me?
Yes.
Fine. Thanks.
Perfect. So thank you for your presentation and for taking my questions. I would want to go a little bit farther on the pipeline you're expecting, the pipeline opportunities. You were mentioning that from the EUR 15 billion opportunities in the near term you will be more relying on EUR 3.5 billion, and you've been mentioning some geographies, Europe, some Middle East, North Africa. But I would like to know if you could provide us some more visibility in terms of more specific regions or more specific type of contracts we would expect to have announced from your part. If you could provide a little bit more visibility on the opportunities you have, it will be very helpful for us.
Thank you very much for your question, José Antonio, and I'll tell you, I have to be prudent in the sense that many of the things are not signed. You know that in France we have one that was made public, that is Le Train, that we're waiting to and there we are still working on that one, which is an important one for us. They're really closing all their funding, in that sense. Then we've had other ones in Central Europe, I would say, and Eastern Europe clearly, but for the moment we are not allowed to say the names. We are working on; there's an opportunity for many of us in Morocco, which we are also working, that I can say that, and another one that we have also is in Middle East.
So we have, and we hope that in the following weeks, months, we have an opportunity that we believe at this stage we are quite close to that opportunity now. That is as some of the ones that are very close to us. But we're looking at many other ones in that area of Middle East, in that same country. We're looking at other ones in Europe, in this part of Europe, and in other parts of Europe. So I would say we have many open ones, even one in the Far East, but that's what I can tell you at the moment because, you know, we are in the middle of negotiations and that can go left or right, you know, north or south, José Antonio. That's where we can tell you now. Some of them, I would say, the basic of our offers are the following.
Clearly, one more I can say in Egypt. We hope, and that was signed and made public, we hope that it needs to go through a process of approvals in the local in Egypt, that, I mean, in terms of parliament, etc., and we hope this one will be solved in the following days, I would say, or weeks. That's what we expect, at least, no? But that is where we are now, and I can tell you, José Antonio, the market is strong, and we do believe we'll see at least we believe in terms of products, we are basically focusing on two products. That is our very high-speed train that is replicating the Avril, or the German one. That is the other one.
And sometimes some of them want only the coaches of the German one, or they want it also, for example, with the locomotives, where we are now working on both. That would be our basic, our main products, but we're also open to, like, the project of Egypt, which is a night train. Okay, José Antonio?
Perfect.
Thank you.
[Foreign language].
It looks like there are no more questions. Again, if there yeah.
Yeah. Yeah, I was going back to the queue, but if there's no more questions, I will, if I may ask a further one, regarding, I know you didn't provide net debt to EBITDA figure because you don't provide net debt in the quarter. But in terms of, to know a little bit, to be a little bit more specific, you're expecting net debt to EBITDA to fall to 3x in your outlook, but going forward what's your target more mid-term in terms of net debt to EBITDA? In which level would you be more comfortable?
To see a little bit how, after the strong backlog execution you will be having in the next years, as you've been mentioning, what will be your comfortable level in terms of net debt to EBITDA?
Okay. Thank you for the question once more, José Antonio. And look, we've given net debt circa three times EBITDA for this year. So in that sense, that's where we maintain, and that's where we are for the year 2024. Having said this, I do believe that going forward in the mid-term, the long-term, with all what we are in the new offers, we're working very hard on the cash flows, so that debt level should decrease going forward in that sense. But because we are improving very much in all our new offers, the cash flow has become extremely relevant. Why? Because the cost of money in the sense much higher, liquidity is more difficult, and we do believe this industry should change in that sense and have positive cash flows.
I can only tell you that as in terms of our target is this, three for this year, three, circa three times net to EBITDA, but going forward we do expect that this should be reduced or if everything goes well and we continue closing targets as the ones we've closed, okay, and it'll probably be more between one and two, I would say. Okay?
Between one and two, you mentioned. Okay.
No, but that's going forward. It's not a target we're expecting.
Going forward, yeah.
With approval, that if everything goes as we said and as expected, it should be, although we have positive cash flows in the future projects, it should undoubtedly decrease. Okay?
Okay. Okay. Perfect.
[Foreign language].
[Foreign language] .
Somebody else is there? Alberto?
Yes. Yeah. Alberto Espelosín from JB Capital, go ahead, please.
Alberto, you have to mute.
Yes. That's muted, Alberto.
Alberto, [Foreign language] muted.
Alberto, we can't hear you.
Well, we cannot hear, Alberto, unfortunately, so.
If we can't hear you, send it by writing and we'll answer to you immediately, Alberto.
Yes.
I'm sorry, whatever is a problem with you. I'm muting.
There's another question from Jorge Granado, Gesprofit. Jorge, go ahead, please.
Okay. Can you hear me?
Yeah.
Yes.
[Foreign language].
[Foreign language]. Okay, now just a quick question, because today we received a notice from different fixed income brokers regarding an ECP program that you're starting to launch. I guess it has probably been in the works for a while, but as you mentioned that, you know, you were put on dividend payment, pending to be defined, because of the takeover. I guess this is such a EUR 150 million program, I think, where you issue next week EUR 20 million. I think it's just, you know, what's the reasoning for this? If it's, you know, taking advantage of the active ECP market or what's the reasoning for starting to launch pagarés now at this timing?
Thank you, Jorge, for the question. I'll tell you, we are seeing as a company that was prior to the bid and all that, we were looking at with all the financial department how to diversify our sources of funds, and one of them was the commercial paper, which I'll come back to, and the other one was looking at long-term investors that could invest with us in terms of one straight important bond, five years or eight years, in order to diversify on one source of funding. We also thought it is good in the case of the commercial paper, it's, as you say, up to EUR 150 million. We want to go out in the following week with EUR 20 million, and it's long-term, and we want to test the market, the appetite for the market, and where it is, and we think that's good.
It's another source of funding, I would tell you. It's diversifying it, and it will give us a reference. It is clear that this market, if the things get complicated, does close down, so in that sense you may have volatility, but we would like to have a program that is recurrent, and if we have investors that are willing and they're happy with our paper three, six months, we'll be very happy to issue that commercial paper, Jorge. Okay?
Okay. Thank you. So it's just another palanca, as usually, you know, they say. It's another financing source.
[Foreign language]. Yes, exactly. [Foreign language] , Jorge. [Foreign language].
[Foreign language].
Yeah, Alberto, let's try now if you can int—
Yes, now he is. He's been able to mute. Alberto?
Yeah. Can you hear me now?
Yes.
Perfecto.
Yeah. Sorry about that. Sorry for the technical problems. Yeah, my question, you probably won't you are probably not allowed to answer anything related to a takeover bid, but just in case, do you know anything about the government position, or has the government approached you or asked anything or confirmed anything, like any news about the government on the takeover bid? Thanks.
No, look, thank you very much, Alberto, for your question, and look, there's nothing we can say on that, as you may suggest, and you even said it at the beginning of your question. So the only thing is what we've done publicly. We welcome the offer, and that is basically it, and the rest is more a question, I guess, to the investor than to us. Okay? And as you very well know from a legal perspective, we have to take the pasividad, passivity, on this, and that is where we are. So sorry, but there's no more we can say on this topic. Okay?
Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Perfect. Understood.
[Foreign language], Alberto. [Foreign language].
It looks like there are no more questions. Thank you very much to everyone. As usual, any additional question you may have, we have the traditional channels through the IR, and thank you again. Thank you, Gonzalo.
Thank you very much to all of you for attending this call, and all the best. Thank you. Good evening. Bye.