Well, thank you very much, for joining the call. The aim of the call is to present the results of the year 2022. For that aim, Gonzalo Urquijo, CEO of Talgo, will go through the executive summary of the presentation, published yesterday afternoon.
Good morning to all of you, thank you very much for attending this call. Once more, it's a pleasure being here. I start with the same page. First point of this executive summary and the key highlights is ESG. In terms of ESG, that is part, as I always say, of our DNA, in that we have an enormous commitment with our teams. That is in terms of health and safety and employee engagement. As we'll see after, we'll go through the frequency index that sadly to say, we have not improved there. Yes, in severity. CO2 emissions that you see in environment in general, clearly. In environment, we've just started with a big new report that you will be able to see on sustainability, which I really recommend.
A lot of work and pleasure has been put into that. Additionally to that, as we'll see after, 90% is eligible of what we do on sustainability standards for taxonomy. In terms of corporate governance, there's two things. We decreased the board to have a board that was more aligned with the size of this company. I will say after we've created, as part of the strategy committee, it'll also be a strategy and sustainability committee. Go to the second point, that is business performance. First of all, 2022 for us has been a challenging year. Why? Clearly, it's due to raw materials, inflation, supply chain, basically our negotiations with our suppliers, and not as been we have had due to supply chain disruptions. In that sense, it has been, from a manufacturing point of view, it has been challenging.
On the other hand, in terms of maintenance, we believe we have recuperated, and we are now at pre-COVID levels. We believe technologically, we are really highly, very high in that aspect. In terms of financial results, we have been very conscious of our costs. We've been especially trying to compensate deviations we had on the suppliers' side, working very hard with our suppliers in order to contain that clearly. Although our backlog still reflects the contracts that were closed some years ago, and now we've had the impact on inflation. I said in some of them we've been able to renegotiate them, that has not been the case. Additionally, to that, in terms of our balance sheet that we'll see after, we've anticipated what could happen, fortunately.
This increase in interest rates, this difficulties in liquidity that the market in general has versus one year ago, we've issued EUR 90 million of new debt. As you'll see after, we have a very strong balance sheet. Last and not least, in the financials, I think, and the press has picked it up today, sadly, but I think that doesn't reflect the whole reality in the sense that our net income has been clearly impacted by extraordinaries. Ordinaries, in terms we have seen somewhat of an increase in interest rates for the parts that are invariable at the end of the year, but above all, two extraordinary items. One of them is the Russia closure that I'll go into after, and it is the tax situation, where have we done part of the income and how we are taxed there.
Second, and very important, the NOLs we had in U.S. who have been reversed. What I think is key here is the future that lies ahead of us. I think it's a completely different future. There has been, we believe, since Orton, maybe since Sinotrans, a turning point. First, industry-wise, we do think that our industry has become clearly ESG, and we see many countries, companies, more and more for trips that are less than 500, 600 kilometers, asking everybody to use the trains on one side. Two, we have these newcomers that are the private operators. We signed an LoI with one that is in France, Le Train. That's a new customer, clearly. We do think that the momentum from a commercial perspective is positive. I would say very positive.
Some of the old industry experts say that since 1996, we have not lived a situation like this. Additionally, in the specific case of Talgo, we have two other very good news is that we have extensions that could amount, the totality of them, to around EUR 2 billion. Additionally, to that, we have two new trains. That is the Avril or the high speed, very high-speed train for Spain, the Avril, and the German one, the ICE L, as it's low, at 230 as it goes at 230. Additionally to this, that for us means that we're going to see a repeating orders, which is very important also in terms of manufacturing. We pass to the next stage. That is ESG.
Look, in terms of health and safety and our standards, you know our target is zero accidents. Clearly, we have not improved in the frequency rate. Why have we not improved? We still have small little things, but they are repetitive. It's a fall. It's somebody slipping, it's cuts, it's affecting the eyes, and we're really working on that. I think what's important here at the end that we've had in terms of severity, we have decreased and we have not had any severe accidents, so we have to continue like that. That's something, as you all know, we value enormously. Additionally to that, in terms of our teams, we've been working very much in talent. We all have a big talent, I would say, and managing talent in terms of the attracting and retaining talent.
I think that's a common denominator. As of today, we've worked very hard on that in terms of, first of all, having salaries at market price, in terms of career development, learning, hybrid in terms of work at home. At the end, sustainability. We've become very close to many universities and technical colleges, which for us is very important. The welders, the painters, et cetera. This is a very big source and important for us in terms of recruiting. Clearly this is a challenging that we believe we are in the good track on that. In terms of corporate governance, first of all, as I said before, the board had been reduced from 15 to 10. Second one we've created with the strategy. We've unified in a strategy and sustainability.
Third, we have approved 2022, 2024 ESG plan, which has 29 strategic projects and 94 goals. As I said before, you have the sustainability report. In Talgo's economic activity, which 90% are eligible. We think that is clearly extremely important, no? Last and not least, in terms of environment, look, if we look at the new Avril, 94% of this train will be is on a product recyclability. That is very important for us. Additionally, to us, it'll be a train with a lower CO2 emissions as they're much lighter than our competitors. Clearly, we are working hard on smart factories in terms of energy consumption.
Even though now we are buying renewable, by the end of the year, we should have all our panels, and going forward next year we should 100% be independent by producing our own energy and all solar through the solar panels clearly. At the end, we are also working hard on all the reducing waste generation and of course, recyclability of that waste. Last and not least, in terms of R&D and operational efficiency, clearly we continue with our path, and that's a part of our CapEx for this year. That is all digitalization. I think in the maintenance, we're extremely digitalized. In terms of manufacturing co-corporate, we are behind, but we are getting there. The hydrogen, what can I tell you? We are in the commission in process.
That is the internal tryouts. We hope to be on the tracks, we expect by June. Next page, please, Harriet. Business performance. First of all, you know that this year was we had increase in salaries that were increase of 9.2%. That included 2021 and 2022, clearly. That has changed. Now we are living in an environment that it has inflation and salaries have to be reviewed. Second, that is in terms of the backlog, well, we have EUR 2.7 billion. 70% of that backlog has indexation clauses. I'll come back to the concept of the indexation after. We are working back to back with many clients, suppliers, reducing our exposure and volatility. Additionally to that, I would say a big part of our new contracts, we are passing them.
Clearly, they have to have. It's a must, or they have indexation, or we are inserting it applies. We believe inflation can be the next four years from now. We cannot have that open. Additionally, when we are taking the second part, that is including inflation, the idea is to hedge immediately. Of course, it's not only the raw materials, I would say. It's energy. It is hedging through the financial system, that is inflation and energy. Supply chain. Look, we have increased our supplier base. We like to have. We're trying to get three suppliers per product. Clearly, additionally to that, we've seen relocation. I think Far East has become a myth since COVID more and more.
Fortunately, we are doing in Europe at least more than 80% of our total suppliers at this point. Clearly, we are strengthening the requirements from a legal perspective and from guarantees perspective. In terms of industrial capacity, we've rescheduled with our customers the dates of the manufacturing of our trains clearly. With the majority of our customers, we've been able to do it, except for one for the moment, which is our spoke about penalties, as you all know, that was Renfe. For the rest, we've been able to renegotiate that in a adequate manner. In terms of manufacturing, clearly we're fully reviewing this, and we are really working hard in terms of becoming leaner, more efficient and increasing capacity.
We believe there's a great opportunity now from a commercial perspective and this increase, we have to benefit from this opportunity. We need to push forward our capacity. Additionally to that, we do have two new trains, as I said before, so we'll be repeating orders. When we go to Le Train, it's the Avril. When we are talking of Denmark, it's the ICE L. Et cetera. Clearly we are at this stage with two new products, which is a great moment to have that. In other challenges, working capital, you know that going forward, our idea is to mitigate that, and we're looking at every single project we have to. What we are looking for in our target is to look at positive in terms of pre-cash flow. Second, that is in Russia.
You know, we canceled all our operations since March, sadly, due to the sanctions our customer had. With this, very sad and awful war we're all living, but that's where we are, and we had to lay off all our teams, and that has impacted our P&L in the strongly results as we'll see after. In terms of LACMA, the Los Angeles Metro, this is all under this contract. Do you know the customer decided to terminate the contract? They sued us, we sued them back, and this is under litigation at this moment. Last and not least, we talked about penalties.
With the majority of the customers, we agreed, and where we haven't, we believe this is a clear case of force majeure. That's what we wanted to the customer that was Renfe who had sent us the letter on this topic. Go to this next page, that is business performance two. In terms of the backlog, our backlog, if we include Egypt, we're talking of EUR 3 billion, or we will be manufacturing this year. Basically, it's going to be Germany, it's going to be Denmark, it's going to be the powerheads of the very high speed, sorry. We will be finishing as we're finishing now Egypt, we hope to start the new one, or Egypt or that one, or it would be another one. In terms of maintenance, we already said that is all.
We see all our new contracts we have now in the pipeline, they do include a maintenance. For us, that is key and it's a business we believe we are very knowledgeable, and it's an interesting good business, I would say, for us, to say the least. As I say here, the industry has really is in a different and new momentum. For us, this momentum becomes better not only because we have sorry, we have the, first of all, an extension of orders. We are above EUR 2 billion. That is Germany, it is Denmark, it is Saudi Arabia, it is Uzbekistan, clearly. So that is extension of new orders. In addition, we have many new other projects that are on the table at this moment.
That looks clearly positively, or very positive, I would say. In terms of the next stage, the financial results. For this year, we've done practically EUR 170 million of revenues. At the end, we've suffered due to supply, due to inflation, due to, o f course, it was also a year of change for us in the sense we were going out of some projects and going into other ones, and that always has a ramp-up period. We have suffered in that aspect, as we said before. Clearly, we are going from the VHS and that was a very high speed in Egypt to the German and the Danish one and the second part of the Spanish ones. Our EBITDA has been EUR 52.5, 11.2% margin, and our net income, EUR 1.4.
Our net income clearly does not at the end. Sorry. It has been clearly impacted by two big. As I said before, clearly it is the financial impact has affected somewhat at the end of the year. The two basic reasons are EUR 5 million in Russia, that is due to layoffs and due to we've done a full provision of all the material we had in Russia. That is as for number one. In terms of taxes, we are most efficient in taxes in Spain. What we are making in some of our countries, it is not as efficient on one side, but I think the big extraordinary has been the reverse of NOLs that has been around EUR 4 million. That's why we've been clearly impact in the net income.
If not, it would have been much higher or practically 10 times more. It should have been more around 12 or 14 if we wouldn't have had these extraordinary impact. In terms of the balance sheet, clearly, as you can see here. This year we had already said that it would be in terms of working capital, the difficult year. You remember last year we were at EUR 156 million, if I'm not mistaken. This year. Sorry, in 2021 I meant. In 2022, it's EUR 217. Clearly that we have been impacted. We're new to a year where we're going to consume working capital. At the end, we have not cashed in projects like, for example, Spain, and that is the most important.
We are starting to cash in Egypt, we will see this during this year. On the other hand, we were new projects where we had no cash in for 2022. That was Germany and that was Denmark in some way also. Clearly, in terms of the acknowledged abstract debt at this stage, we are very close at what is the development of the project clearly. Now we are with a strong liquidity. That means between AAD, between credit lines and the cash we have or the treasury we have in our balance sheet, we are talking of around EUR 400 million in terms of liquidity. We have renegotiated.
As we said, we have EUR 90 million of new debt. But our debt now is at fixed interest rate, is practically 65% or 64%, to be exact. And our cost is 1.7%, which we believe it's a very competitive cost. And the maturity is 2.5 years clearly. It is clear that we continue being very prudent here. We continue renegotiating with banks, but we know prices are not the same. Liquidity is not the same in the system, and the prices are not the same either going forward. EBITDA as a multiple of our debt, that is, it's 1.9. That's been the closing of the year. Last but not least, we go to the outlook, and I think and I have to start with, we believe this is a new momentum for the industry.
We do expect a strong revenue as strong. We do reinforce very much our pipeline, clearly, and our backlog, clearly. In addition to that, we will see going forward margin improvements. Those projects will be entering 2023, 2024. That margin improvement, we will see it not that much in this year, even though we are giving a target here of 12%, which is better than last year. That going forward, we'll see more of that in 2024 and 2025, especially when we start getting in the new projects. We see a stable in working capital. We see in terms of EBITDA, very similar multiple to debt, very similar to this year too. We have increased part of the CapEx. Part of it is digitalization. Part of it is R&D. That we're...
In terms of the backlog execution, from 32% we are at 40%. That is where we are. That is an improvement. Book-to-bill, I think we've talked about two. I think it's going to be higher than two, clearly. That is where we are. Last but not least, in terms of the shareholder remuneration, three things. It has been increased at 20%, which I think is a good news for everybody from EUR 10 million. It will be done through a flexible dividend, that's a scrip dividend. As a net income is what it is, we'll do it with, at the end up distributing reserves that can be distributing.
Last but not least, we do think 2022 was not an easy year, and we are positive or very positive, I would say, towards the year 2023, where the market is and where we are in terms of the products we have, in terms of the extension of contracts and other, contracts we have on top of the table. Thank you, very much and open to questions.
Ladies and gentlemen, the Q&A session starts now. If you wish to ask a question, please dial star one one on your telephone keypad or submit your question through the webcast platform. Here. The first question comes from Jaime Escribano from Banco Santander. Please go ahead, sir.
Hi. Good morning. My first question is regarding the guidance, 2023. Bearing in mind that you are already making, or correct me if I'm wrong, an EBITDA margin of 11.8% in Q4 2022, are you just being conservative or do you see upside to this margin? Should I do more questions or let's go maybe one by one?
William, go ahead. Do all of them. Sure, Jaime.
Okay. Yeah, no. Are quick ones. Yeah. Just to have a little bit more color on how the negotiation or... although you have commented a little bit, but the negotiation with the potential Deutsche Bahn extension, and also if any news on all the train on the train contract? Something that was a positive surprise, at least on my estimate, was the net debt, which was better than expected. Maybe if you can dig deeper on that, on how should we think about 2023, where you were saying that there could be some reversal from working capital? Thank you very much.
Thank you, Jaime, for your questions. In terms of guidance, it is true what you said in terms of Q4. Are we being prudent? Look, we put 12% circa. I do think for the moment that's our estimate here. Clearly that's where we are. We do think that when we really see the improvement. Could we see an improvement during the year? Well, let's see how. I think we have unknowns. That is all in terms of supply chain, suppliers, et cetera. Where are we? Inflation. I think that we are seeing the. You saw the figures of inflation yesterday here in Spain, et cetera. We prefer to be prudent in that side.
On the other side, I do think that going forward, we should see clearly a good improvement, because when we start incorporating those and we start working them. Even though if we close the deals this year, at the end, you won't see it or you'll see very little in the P&L. You'll only see the engineering part, the starting part. You will see this in our P&Ls going forward in 2024, 2025 and 2026. That is as for one, because still you have to finish the actual projects we have. That's for your first questions. Negotiations with DB are going well. We're in the middle of those negotiation. I think the good news is they've told us they do want to increase.
We're looking at the figures, the conditions, how is the indexation going to be incorporate, and that is where we are now. I think the key thing is that they're happy with the train we've built, and they have already confirmed this, that they want to, at the end, go for an extension. I would say it's a considerable amount in terms of number of trains. The second one, that is Le Train. Little new than what we made public the other day. On one side, we are still working on them on the contract negotiation. On the other hand, they are working hard in order to close their situation in terms of equity, in terms of funding. In terms of net debt, what we've given you is a 2 multiple, no?
This year we should have cash-ins. On the other hand, we will have cash outs for some of the projects. That's why we've talked that we would be around that to the TIFCA multiple of 2. That we will continue, but you ask what happened. It is true, when I saw your analyst, well, your consensus, especially yours and amongst others, and in general in the market, you all thought we were going to have a higher debt. I think, first of all, we worked very hard in terms, and we're working extremely hard now in terms to improve our working capital and to cash in as much as possible. That has to continue.
I do think that going forward, I think the key part is that we have that we have at the end, we are able to pass to our customers positive in the projects, positive cash flow. I think that is a must going forward. That will reduce also the volatility of our balance sheet going forward. I think those are two big paradigm changes that are indexation on one side and cash flow positive or at least neutral going forward also. I mean, that doesn't mean we're going to succeed with 100%, but I think with 90, yes, and that is clear, no? You know, that's where we are. Okay, Jaime . Thank you.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. There are no more questions in the conference call. We will now proceed to the questions received in the webcast platform.
Okay. The following questions are asked through the webcast. The first one comes from Alberto Pelosini, JB Capital. It says as follows: Are you using cost hedging strategies in new tenders? How should we think on manufacturing margins once current backlog is depleted? Essentially, what is the targeted EBITDA margin in new tenders?
Two questions, one I can answer and one I can't, because it goes forward than the more than the guidance. Thank you, Alberto, for the question. In terms of cost hedging, we are. First of all, we're trying to get the contracts with indexation. If we have an indexation, at the end, what we are doing is transfer it, and it's a pass-through. If it's not the case with some state-owned entities cannot do that because for terms of budget, they have to have, then we are including inflation there, and we are using hedging. Hedging, that is not only for raw materials. Raw materials at the end account for us for 20%. 10% would be aluminum, 5% steel, and 5% other products like chemicals, like copper and things like that.
At the end, we are looking at the hedging also in terms of hedge the other costs, et cetera. In terms of the target EBITDA, going forward, look, what we've given you is one for 2012. I mean, your assumption is correct. Once the backlog that we have is out, we finish the existing projects where you have had in some of the margin squeezes, well, at the end, the EBITDA clearly should go up going forward. That is, that works like that, clearly. Yes. Thank you, Alberto.
The next question also from Alberto. says, could you please provide a bit more visibility regarding expected timings of deliveries of the Avril trains to Renfe? Do you expect any penalization for the delay? What is the current relationship with Renfe?
Okay, let me see. The current relationship. I'll start by the end. Current relationship with Renfe is good. I would say more than good. On a day-to-day, I speak with CEO Bueno. I don't know if on a daily basis, but every other day. The end, all the teams speak with their counterparts in Renfe. I think this has not affected the day-to-day of the relation. That is why now the relation with Renfe is good or very good, I could say. Second, in terms to your second question was penalization. We got sent the letter of penalization. We answered to that letter saying that it didn't proceed for three reasons. Those were our arguments were, we had a situation with COVID, a force majeure.
Second, they had changed the contract and they wanted new, and they had change orders to the contract. That had an impact on delays. Third, the law has changed some requirements, and with those changes in requirements, that also impacted the delay. How can that end or not? Well, look, at the end, I think, at the end it'll be two issues. It'll be, or it'll go through legal part, that is, there'll be, you know, currently, a legal case. We hope that is not the case. The second one, as we've done in the past, we negotiate it. I don't know if that links with your second, you know, your first question. That, we think that, at the end, we'll end up negotiating.
In terms of the calendar, I can tell you we've finished all homologation, so I think that's a very positive legal homologation aspect. We are with our certifying company that we are looking and we're collecting all the documents for the certification, and three weeks from now, we present it to the state agency, Agencia Estatal, which does all the evaluation and then look at all the homologation trials we've done, and in function of that, they'll give you a view. I think the train. That can take four months. At the end, we will be talking from, in March, another plus four months. At the end, we would have to see what are the details on all that going forward. You know, because the agency could ask for a specific new trial, they want to redo it or something.
If not, it would take 4 other months. That would take us to July approx. That is the calendar we foresee as of today, if there's no other new things. Okay? Thank you. Alberto again.
Yes. last question from Alberto. regarding the guidance, how should we think on backlog execution in 2023 standalone? can we assume 20%? Also, in CapEx, why are you guiding a 50% hike?
In terms of the 50% hike, I do think we've included new elements. That is. First, we are putting the panels, for example, and let me tell you some of the details. Additionally to that, we are putting CapEx, the digitalization. That is another element. Second or third, we have some delay from the previous year. That is why we have put that in the CapEx. Now, additionally to the backlog execution, I believe that's a question of the 40%. What we have estimated is a 40%, we will do an average of year 2021 and 2022. That is what you're doing. For 2023, 2024, you're putting, what is it? EUR 1.1 billion or something like that, you do your mathematics, and it'll give you EUR 550 million, something like that, approximately.
I'm sure you're better than me in those math.
Okay, thank you very much. From following question from Alfredo de Ferrero. It says, could you provide some color on the calendar for extensions?
Calendar for extensions? Yes, I'll try. Look, it all depends. We have two parties that are requested that. As we see it, we see, the ones that should come in the short term should be probably Denmark and Germany. That is in the following months. We see Saudi could come maybe by the end of the year. We have a question mark on Uzbekistan. Now, if I go to other ones like Le Train, if they have the funding, that would be a short calendar also. Egypt also I see it as a short calendar. That's what I could give you now.
Okay. Next question comes from Javier Echevarría at Banco Sabadell . Could you split the shareholder remuneration between a scrip dividend and share buybacks? Could you put some more color on the benefits of a scrip dividend?
Yeah. I'll try and put the benefits on the scrip dividend. I think the scrip dividend gives you flexibility. Gives you what flexibility in what sense? At the end you get a free option. You get a free option in the sense that if some of the shareholders, and we have practically 8,000 physical people as shareholders, so they can get the cash if they want the cash. If they don't need the cash or any institutional ones, who at the end it's efficient, because at the end what you can do is you get new shares, so you postpone your tax situation. You're getting new shares, and then you're not diluting because the company will use this cash to buy back and to do treasury stock. It's the same we did last year.
There'll be no dilution if you are going for shares and you're able to get cash, so that is your choice. It is, I think, a great instrument because you're getting a free option on this. Okay? Any other questions, Javier?
Yes. Next question from Nicholas Midline. It says, "What is the install base in the aftermarket right now, and
What is the, sorry?
The install base, flota, what's the English? It's in flota. In the aftermarket right now. How will the install base develop over the next few years?
Let me check on the first, the exact, to give you an exact figure on that. I do think we'll see an increase clearly going forward because with all the Look, with the Avril, you're going to see 30 new trains. With the Germans, you're going to see another 22. With the Danish, you're going to see another eight, if I'm not mistaken. With the six for the ones of Germany. You have all the other new ones. You're going to have the powerheads and the ones we are going to be... Clearly it is growing. That is in terms of trains. That's all the coaches, and that means also a growth for us in maintenance, clearly. Eh? Around four. Today our factual fleet is around 4-
We get to close to 4,000 vehicles more or less.
A bit above 4,000 vehicles. That's our expectation. Okay?
Yes. Next question from Emmanuel Raimond, says, "Hello. Did you say raw materials account for 30% of your total cost or your revenues?" Neither. I mean, it's total-
Of the cost.
30% of the cost material.
Yeah, to the cost of materials, it's 20% is the raw materials. That is the exact. Maybe I didn't explain it correctly. From what I understand, no, I wasn't complete. Okay.
Also from Emmanuel, the follow-up question says, "In the P&L you have EUR 3.2 million of other adjustments between adjusted EBITDA and reported EBITDA. What are these charges? And how much of them are or will be cash out?
The cash out with I think in the adjustments we had what has been the layoffs and the bonds. Those are the two.
Non-recurrent.
That are non-recurrent. That is why we have it in adjusted. Okay?
Okay. I think that there's a question on the audio side, if we can go through that.
Thank you. The next question comes from Antonio Manzano, from Santalucía . Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. Hello, Gonzalo. Hello, Javier. Thank you very much for taking my question. I wanted just a clarification that I might actually have missed. It's in terms of the guidance for stable working capital in 2023. Can you clarify what that means? Should we expect it to stay at the 46% level of revenues, or do you mean more to EUR 117 million? Thank you.
Yes. First of all, Antonio. Thank you for the question. What we are talking is, in principle that the working capital is in terms of absolute amount. That is, the guidance, to be clear. When we say it would be stable, it's an absolute amount. Okay?
Okay, understood. Thank you very much.
Thank you very much. There are no more questions through the conference call. Thank you.
Yes. There's another question on the webcast, prior to finalize. The last question from Emmanuel Raymond. It says, a question over the net finance expenses. How, how come did they reach 11.5 in 2022, EUR 11.5 million, while we are saying that 1.68% is the cost of the gross debt, long-term debt?
Yeah. I think there's two things or various factors, on one side, that is the fix, that we have the cost of the bonds on one side. We renegotiated quite a lot, as you've seen, of loans, so we always have an opening fee to that. Part of the AD instruments are variable instruments additionally to that. We did have in, yes, some extraordinary that was due to the arbitration situation we had in Saudi Arabia, because that included some financial costs. Those are the four elements.
Yeah. There are no more questions. Thank you very much everyone for your time, for the questions. Thank you again, Gonzalo, for the conference call and the presentation. Looking forward to you for the following. In case of having any other questions, please don't hesitate to contact us. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Have a good and safe day. Thank you to all. Bye.