Grupo Carso, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:GCARSO.A1)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2024

Jul 23, 2024

Angélica Piña
Head of Investor Relations, Grupo Carso

...Good morning, everyone, and welcome to this webinar to discuss the results of the second quarter, 2024 of Grupo Carso. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this event is being recorded, and any information discussed today may include forward-looking statements regarding the company's financial and operating performance. All projections are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. Hosting this conference today is Mr. Arturo Espínola, Chief Financial Officer of Grupo Carso, and me, Angélica Piña, of Investor Relations, who will take you briefly through the second quarter's financial results, and then we will take your questions. Consolidated sales of Grupo Carso totaled MXN 48 billion, remaining stable year-over-year.

Grupo Condumex and Elementia Fortaleza increased its revenues, while Grupo Sanborns and Carso Energy reduced sales, with impacts coming from the exchange rate, which suffered a 2.9% reduction versus the same quarter of 2023, affecting revenues from dollar-based domestic sales, exports, and sales from our foreign operations. Carso Infraestructura y Construcción posted a 7.7% reduction due to the conclusion of infrastructure projects. Consolidated operating income reached MXN 5.7 billion versus MXN 6.2 billion in the second quarter of 2023. This reflected a lower profitability from Grupo Sanborns, Carso Energy, and Grupo Condumex related to the exchange rate mentioned before. EBITDA from April to June 2024 was MXN 7.4 billion, compared to MXN 7.7 billion a year ago.

The EBITDA margin changed 50 basis points from 15.9% to 15.4% in relation to sales. On the other side, the consolidated controlling net income reached MXN 4.6 billion, higher than MXN 3.4 billion from last year, growing 34.5% for higher financial income, compensated lower operating results from last year. Explaining the performance by division, the total sales of Grupo Sanborns reached MXN 15.9 billion, with a 2.7% reduction versus MXN 16.4 billion in the second quarter of 2023. Operating income in Grupo Sanborns totaled MXN 897 million, compared to MXN 1.4 billion a year ago. This reduction in profitability was explained by a 6% increase in operating expenses.

EBITDA reduced 27.2%, and net income reached MXN 649 million, compared to MXN 1 billion in the second quarter of the previous year. The sales floor increased 0.3%, ending with 445 stores, due to the opening of 1 new Dax store and 1 iShop store. In the industrial division, Grupo Condumex, Grupo Condumex sales totaled MXN 12.1 billion versus MXN 11.3 billion in the same quarter of last year. This improvement in performance came primarily from higher sales of construction and automotive cables and harnesses, which compensated lower volumes in telecom cables, coupled with a 2.9% reduction in the FX rate, where the strength of the peso impacted our revenues in dollars.

Regarding operating income and EBITDA, these items reached MXN 1.2 billion and MXN 1.4 billion, respectively, compared to MXN 1.3 billion and MXN 1.5 billion last year. Carso Infraestructura y Construcción's sales totaled MXN 10.8 billion. The divisions that had the best performance were manufacturing and services for the oil and chemical industry, with additional works in fluids, drilling, and oil well reparations, and civil construction, which improved due to the progress in the Star Médica hospitals in different cities and other retail construction projects. The performances mentioned before offset lower volumes observed in infrastructure, where the Tren Maya reached its final phase and is currently in administrative closure, and pipelines, where lower telecom network installations were recorded. The operating income and EBITDA in CICSA improved 0.9% and 3.7%, respectively.

Controlling net income decreased 2.2%, totaling MXN 701 million. The projects currently in place are telecom installation services, equipment for the petrochemical industry, drilling of deep wells for PEMEX, various services and equipment for the oil industry, construction of hospitals, shopping centers, and the conclusion of the Mitla-Tehuantepec Highway. The backlog totals MXN 27.8 billion, compared to MXN 31.2 billion a year ago. The sales of Elementia Fortaleza increased 4.7% from MXN 8.3 billion in the second quarter of 2023 to MXN 8.7 billion in the second quarter of 2024.

This was related to dynamism in the cement demand in the U.S. and México, compensating sales in the Construcciones segment, which suffered the effects of the peso appreciation, since most of this division's revenues are generated outside of México, either from exports or commodity base. Elementia's profitability improved, where operating income and EBITDA grew 24.1% and 18.0%, respectively, reflecting cost efficiencies in the cement sector. The sales of Carso Energy totaled MXN 796 million, lower than MXN 902 million from last year. This was attributable to exchange rate effects in the revenues recorded in the hydroelectric plants in Panamá and in the Samalayuca-Sásabe gas pipeline. While revenues from natural gas transportation services through the pipelines of Waha-Presidio and Waha-San Elizario in Texas, U.S., remained strong.

The operating income and EBITDA of Carso Energy were MXN 617 million and MXN 709 million, respectively. The net result totaled MXN 283 million. In this subsidiary, the construction of the Centauro del Norte gas pipeline started, having signed an investment agreement with the CFE for the construction of 416 kilometers to connect the Samalayuca-Sásabe gas pipeline, Baja California. Lastly, two relevant events were released regarding the new hydrocarbons division of Grupo Carso, where the PetroBal operations upstream was formally acquired to explore and exploit the Ichalkil and Pokoch fields in the Costa de Campeche, to work together with Fieldwood Energy, and where we have already reported the assets in this quarter.

Additionally, the relevant event of the Lakach field to provide gas infrastructure comprehensive services, with PEMEX maintaining ownership of the field and its reserves and estimating pre-production in the next 2.5 years. With this, I finish my general comments to proceed to the Q&A session. Thank you. At this time, if you would like to ask the question, please raise your hand and we will open your mics. The first question comes from Carlos Alcaraz. Please-

Speaker 4

Hello, good morning.

Angélica Piña
Head of Investor Relations, Grupo Carso

Good morning.

Speaker 4

Thank you for the call, and congratulations on the results. I have two very specific questions. The first one is about PetroBal. Will the results be consolidated in Carso Energy, or will there be a new division for this company? And, regarding the good results in Condumex, do you expect this trend to continue, or could it be affected by the U.S. election?

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

Yes, good morning, Carlos. Regarding the results of PetroBal, we are designing a new division, the hydrocarbons division. The PetroBal, Talos, and the next investment in that sector is not going to be as part of Carso Energy. It's going to be a new division. Yes, in this quarter, I mean, we are considering the result, the PetroBal in June 2024. On the other hand, we have no bad expectation with the election in the U.S. for Condumex. The matter in Condumex is the exchange rate. But I think the market has discovered the situation, the political situations, but we don't know what happens if since Mr. Trump or Mr. -- Mrs.

Kamala, or I don't know who is going to be the Democratic candidate, but we are not very confident with that. But as you know, almost 80% of our exports is for Latam, not for the U.S., then the exchange rate is our concern, not the political situation in the U.S.

Speaker 4

Okay, understood. Thank you very much, and have a good day.

Angélica Piña
Head of Investor Relations, Grupo Carso

Thank you, Carlos. Our next question comes from Alejandro Azar of GBM. Please, Alejandro, go ahead.

Alejandro Azar
Vice President and Equity Research Analyst, GBM

Hi, Angélica. Good morning, Arturo. I have four questions. If I may, I can go each one by one, or I can tell the four at once. I don't know, how do you want me to proceed?

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

Please, one by one, Alejandro.

Alejandro Azar
Vice President and Equity Research Analyst, GBM

So the first one, Arturo, is on Sanborns. This is the third quarter that we've seen a decline in operating income or an increase in expenses. Angélica, you mentioned that a 6% increase in operating expenses was what drove EBITDA down 30%. Could you guys be more specific in terms of what is happening with Sanborns? Because our guesstimate or our view is that there are credit losses in the business, and all the growth that you guys saw in the past two years, it's not coming to fruition, or you're not getting paid on your credit portfolio. Could you be, or what is, you know, what is the margin that we should take for Sanborns?

Because we're seeing margins close to 8%.

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

Yes, uh-

Alejandro Azar
Vice President and Equity Research Analyst, GBM

That would be my first one.

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

Yes, Alejandro. You know, we just finished the implementation of a new software to control the credit portfolio, Grupo Sanborns. And even we found some problems, we have recognized the, I think, the lack charts about our credit problem as a result of the changes that we made in the policy in the software, et cetera. In this case, in Claro Shop, we are impacted with some cancellation of credits, but we think that this is the last quarter in which we have to be impacted about the credit problem that we are resolving. And on the other hand, we have some impacts in the wages and salaries of the personnel.

You know, as a result of the increase in the minimum salary, we have reviewed our salaries, and we have some impact. But I think in this we are going to come to the 8%-9% margin at the end of the year with a because this problem of the credit situation has the finish. That is our expectation. That is the situation, Alejandro.

Alejandro Azar
Vice President and Equity Research Analyst, GBM

Okay. Thank you, Arturo. The next one is on Carso Energy. Are we seeing 100% of the compressor station revenues in the second quarter?

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

We recorded the new tariff with CFE since June as a complete month. We began in May, but in May was just two or three weeks. But since June, we are recognizing 100% of the new tariff regarding the station.

Alejandro Azar
Vice President and Equity Research Analyst, GBM

Okay, so you think that with for the third quarter, and I understand that Panama Hydroelectrics are really volatile, but we should expect, like, stabilize in terms of growth or declines?

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

That, that's correct, Alejandro. That's correct. That is, it is our expectation.

Alejandro Azar
Vice President and Equity Research Analyst, GBM

Okay. And the next two, Arturo, are on CICSA. The first one is, what is making the manufacturing and services for the oil and gas industry business segment increase 50%? And how are we going to see the new MXN 1.2 billion of services that you're going to do with Pemex? Are we going to see that here or in the new division with PetroBal and-

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

Well, in this quarter, specifically, we have some benefits for claims that we made in the past, and we get in this quarter around MXN 800 million we are recognizing, but it's not for the rest of the year. It's just a one-time effect. But on the other hand, we are going to have more services in this division, regarding PetroBal, regarding Talos, and regarding Lakach. But we are going to see that maybe for the next year.

Alejandro Azar
Vice President and Equity Research Analyst, GBM

How should we account for that MXN 1.2 billion, Arturo? I mean, the services contract with PEMEX regarding the gas field, is that the... I don't know what to say. Because that was the investment that you were going to do. Should we think of an internal rate of return of 20%, 18% on that?

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

But it's important to say that the owner of the asset of the investment is going to be PEMEX.

Alejandro Azar
Vice President and Equity Research Analyst, GBM

Mm-hmm.

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

For us, just a service contract, okay? Then to do all the infrastructure that needs PEMEX, we are going to invest around $600 million, more or less. The rest, to reach the $1.2 billion, is OpEx, okay?

Alejandro Azar
Vice President and Equity Research Analyst, GBM

Okay.

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

And since finish the infrastructure, I mean, in 2.5 years, we are going to begin the recovery of our investment, okay? That, that, that is the,

Alejandro Azar
Vice President and Equity Research Analyst, GBM

Okay. So first, if I understand correctly, the next, let's say, 18-24 months, we're gonna see CapEx and OpEx on Grupo Carso's side, and then you're going to start receiving revenues from 2 years and onwards?

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

That is the idea. I mean, the first 30 months, we are going to have an investment, which we are going to recognize as a contract account in the receivable, okay?

Alejandro Azar
Vice President and Equity Research Analyst, GBM

Okay.

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

Because it is not our asset. It's an asset to PEMEX, not for us, okay? Then it's a kind of account receivable among us and PEMEX.

Alejandro Azar
Vice President and Equity Research Analyst, GBM

Okay, Arturo. And the last one is, it's a bit tricky on my side, and I just want to understand, on CICSA, the sales and the backlog, and help me with this, if I'm not doing the math or understanding the operations correctly. The backlog during the last 18 months, and I mean the first quarter of 2023 to 2024, the second quarter, the backlog has come down from MXN 33 billion to MXN 27 billion, so it's practically flat. But during that span, you have generated MXN 65 billion in sales. So if I understand, you are, let's say, doing your backlog, but at the same time, getting new contracts that make your backlog stay at the same level. So how should we understand this?

I mean, it seems that you are gaining contracts, short-term contracts, that you are able to monetize pretty, pretty rapidly.

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

Yeah, you know, for example, in the installation division, that means around 30%. We don't have long-term contracts, we just have short-term contracts, and that division invoices around MXN 40,000 million per year. Then, you can see that, the backlog of that division is not as the same that happens in the construction sector. Then, on the other hand, for example, in the case of the drilling sector, we just finished our contract with PEMEX, but we continue with different agreements to renew that contract, but we don't have a new contract. We are now negotiating a new contract.

The backlog doesn't shows the total expectation of 6, you know, because just in the infrastructure division and the civil construction division, we have a long-term contracts. In the rest of the divisions, we have short-term contracts, and we continually renegotiating with the customers. That is the situation, Alejandro.

Alejandro Azar
Vice President and Equity Research Analyst, GBM

Okay. So, we should use the backlog just for the civil construction and infrastructure segments. Is that correct?

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

That's correct.

Alejandro Azar
Vice President and Equity Research Analyst, GBM

Okay. Thank you, Arturo.

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

You're welcome, Alejandro.

Angélica Piña
Head of Investor Relations, Grupo Carso

We have a question. I don't know if it's Miguel. It's M.

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

Abre el micrófono, por favor.

Angélica Piña
Head of Investor Relations, Grupo Carso

Hello, I don't know if it's Miguel. Your microphone is open.

Speaker 5

Okay, it's open now. Hi there. Hi, Angélica, Arturo. Just a couple of questions. The first one regarding Lakach. Yes. What kind of rate of return should we expect after the two and a half years of investment?

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

You know, we expect a rate between 15 and 20, but it's important to say, Miguel, the way that we are going to recover the investment is with the sale of the gas. Then, if we found more or lower gas, can modify our deal, you know?

Speaker 5

Okay.

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

But that is our expectation with our numbers, between 15 or 20, more or less.

Speaker 5

Pretty clear. And regarding the Tren Maya, is there anything pending in the receivables of this project, or should we expect additional one-timers in this case?

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

In the same Tren Maya?

Speaker 7

What the?

Speaker 5

Tren Maya, yeah.

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

You know, we have some claims just in negotiating with the Tren Maya, but we have no more incomes to recognize, important or not. We have a maintenance contract for five years, but it's not an important amount, around MXN 500 million per year. But the main project for us is finished.

Speaker 5

Okay, pretty clear. And the last one, if I may, is regarding the FX gains. Is this something that you expect to materialize in the short term, or is just mark-to-market, or how, how does it play?

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

You know, if you see in this quarter, we have an important benefit because of the exchange rate, because we have an important accounts receivable in US dollars. But I don't know if that is going to continue because it seems that the exchange rate is maintained in a certain level, I don't know. But for the... we don't expect an important impact for the rest of the year because we are recognizing around 70 pesos per dollar. But I don't know. In this quarter, was good for us. You see, we increased our net profit more than 30%, 34%, I don't remember well. And that, because of that, because of the exchange rate effect.

Speaker 5

But then if it's a receivable, have you already cashed that receivable, or do you expect to cash it in coming months?

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

Well, in the case of the export and, for example, automotive good customers, we receive in dollars and the funds. In which I don't know if we are going to receive it with a good exchange rate in the case of, for example, FEMSA. That is a little problem with them.

Speaker 5

Okay.

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

But we are talking about dollar. We invoice dollars, and we recover dollars.

Speaker 5

Very clear. Thank you very much.

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

You're welcome.

Angélica Piña
Head of Investor Relations, Grupo Carso

Thank you, Miguel. We have another... We have a question from Vidal Lavín. Please go ahead. Hello, Vidal. We have your microphone open. You can proceed. Vidal, you have to open your microphone.

Speaker 6

Yeah. Can you hear me now? Can you hear me?

Angélica Piña
Head of Investor Relations, Grupo Carso

Yes. Yes, perfect.

Speaker 6

Okay. Hi. Could you please comment on the continued deterioration on working capital we have been seeing? It has gone up from around 36% from sales, to currently 32%, particularly on clients. My second question is related to where you see your leverage ratio 12 months from now. And the last one is related on the expectations you have on the current president-elect aggressive investment program that she is, she had been announcing regarding infrastructure, if you have been in touch with the team?

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

Well, working capital will have an increase mainly because of the government projects that we are finishing. I mean, the Tren Maya, the Mitla-Tehuantepec Highway , et cetera. We are expecting to finish that project. But in the case of the retail sector, we increase some inventories, but we don't see an impact. Well, we are waiting to recover in the case of the infrastructure projects, but we have a long way to recover. And regarding the expectation, the presidential election infrastructure, as you...

As Claudia has said, there are projects in the health program, about the highway, about energy and others, and we are waiting, we don't expect in this year bids, important bids, but I don't know, but we are participating the fact. We are waiting maybe for the next year to have the news. And obviously, we are going to participate in the energy sector, in the social sector. We are waiting for... For now, we just have a highway to finish and we are participating in the Tehuantepec project.

Speaker 6

Okay. And regarding your leverage ratio, where you see it 12 months from now?

Arturo Spínola García
CFO, Grupo Carso

We are going to increase the leverage because we have some revenue to support us, the Lakach program, and the Talos and PetroBal projects. But we expect to maintain lower than 2.0, is the EBITDA. Okay?

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you, Angélica. Thank you, Arturo.

Angélica Piña
Head of Investor Relations, Grupo Carso

Thank you, Vidal. We have a question from Luis Romero, from Mexico, but we cannot take questions from the press. You can be connected, but we cannot answer your questions. You have to contact the press attention with-

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