Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:GMEXICO.B)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2022

Jul 27, 2022

Operator

Good afternoon, and thank you for holding. Welcome to Grupo México's second quarter 2022 earnings conference call. With us this afternoon are all of Grupo México's top executives, who will discuss the second quarter 2022 financial performance of the company, giving you a summary of the latest news, and address any questions you may have at the end of the call. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that information discussed on today's call may include forward-looking statements regarding the company's results and prospects, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially, and the company cautions not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Grupo México undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. All results are expressed in full U.S. GAAP.

The presentation may be followed through our webcast, but if you wish to ask a question during the Q&A session, you need to do so via phone call by pressing star one one. A copy of the slides that the company will be reviewing today is available on the website at grupomexico.com. At this moment, I would like to remind everyone that your lines must be on listen-only mode until the question-and-answer session. Now, we will begin with Ms. Marlene Finny.

Marlene Finny
CFO, Grupo México

Thank you very much, Carmen, for the introduction. Thank you, everybody. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today for Grupo México's second quarter earnings conference call. With me today are the top executives from our three divisions. During our call, as Carmen mentioned before, we will be following a presentation that can be downloaded from our website or following the webcast. On slide number three of the presentation, you'll find the contents for today's call. As we've been doing for several quarters now, I will start with Grupo México's main highlights by going through our main ESG achievements, our scorecard, and our financial highlights. Mr. Leonardo Contreras will provide detailed information regarding our mining division, commenting on the industry's economic environment, its financial highlights, and project updates. He will then be followed by Mr. Isaac Franklin, who will go through the transportation division's financial and operational highlights.

Finally, Mr. Francisco Zinser will comment on the financial highlights and relevant events that occurred during the quarter in our infrastructure division. At the end, the line will be open for questions and answers. Earlier today, we had our Southern Copper and GMXT conference calls as well, so many questions were addressed there. In case you have any further questions, we will open the line as well for those divisions here. Now I will start with our main ESG highlights, in the slide number five. We are very happy to announce that both Grupo México and Grupo México Transportes have joined the S&P Global Sustainability Index in Mexico.

Along these lines, Southern Copper Corporation was also included in the ESG-related index, the S&P/BVL Peru General ESG Index. Both indexes are integrated by the companies with the best ESG performance. The company has had an increase of 24% in their corporate sustainability assessment since 2010, from 49 to 61 out of 100 points, enabling us to be part of the Dow Jones Sustainability Index in Latin America Integrated Market Research since 2017 and the 2022 Sustainability Yearbook. That's they are positive news. In addition to that, several of our units have received ISO certification, from our terminal in Guaymas to our underground mine in Charcas, the first of our underground mines to receive such certification.

Our infrastructure division with the certification in the engineering business now has 60% of its business lines certified as well. Last but not least, our metallurgical complex in Sonora was recognized as one of the 10 best places to work for women. Moving forward to slide number six, where you can find our scorecard, which portrays our progress during the year. As you can see, sales totaled almost $7 billion during the first half of the year. This is a 5% decline when compared to the same period of last year. This was mainly due to the production stoppage in Coahuila, lower ore grades, and a mark-to-market adjustment to open sales. These non-recurring events, it is important to have in mind that these were non-recurring events, along with the inflationary cost increase, affected our results.

Our EBITDA for the first half of 2022 totaled $ 3.6 billion. This is a 20% decrease versus the same period of 2021, ending the period with a 52% EBITDA margin. The good news is, despite the increase in our cash costs, we ended the first half of 2022 at $1.05 per lb of copper produced. We are still the copper producer with the lowest cash cost in the industry. Our board approved, and I think we will see this in other slide as well, but last Friday, our board approved a dividend of MXN 1 per share, which translates into an approximate above 5% annualized dividend yield.

Moving to slide number seven, there you have the financial highlights for the second quarter and our year-to-date of 2021 and 2022. You have there in hand in case you need them. Now we can move to slide number eight. As you can see, Grupo México continues to have a solid balance sheet with low leverage and a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.4 x. Our debt is mainly issued in U.S. dollars, so that represents 80% of our total debt, while the rest is in Mexican peso. On this slide, you can also see the dividend paid from 2021 to 2022, and the respective annual and quarterly implied dividend yield.

As for our debt maturity in next slide number nine, we continue to have a comfortable maturity schedule with no payments of over $1 billion until 2035. Our cash balance ended the quarter at $5.7 billion. Now I will let Mr. Leonardo Contreras comment on the mining division's performance.

Leonardo Contreras
Director and General Manager of Mining Division, Grupo México

Thank you, Marlene. Thank you for joining us. Start with a couple of quick remarks on the current copper market. In 2022, the LME copper price decreased 2% from an average of $4.40 per lb in the second quarter of 2021 to $4.32. However, we have a significant drop in copper prices down to its current level between $3.30 per lb -$3.50 per lb. Concerns are simultaneously in the U.S. and consequently affecting copper prices. These fears are based upon the following factors. The interest rates considered by the Fed, the ECB and other relevant central banks. Second, the slowdown of the Chinese economy due to COVID-19 restrictions and the construction activity's 31% year-over-year reduction.

However, we should note that the most relevant market intelligence houses for the copper market are expecting a market imbalance or with a small deficit for 2022 of about 200,000 tons, assuming growth in demand between 1% and 2.5% in 2022, particularly in terms of cathode consumptions from the United States. There is uncertainty regarding future production growth in Chile and Peru, which together represent about 40% of the total supply. Chile registered a production drop of 7% during the first quarter of 2022, while 13% of Peru's production is currently at risk in Las Bambas. The major warehouses have not reported a relevant increase in copper inventories, which as of June 30th were at eight days of consumption, a relatively low level.

We believe the economic slowdowns in the U.S., China and Europe have temporarily weakened the demand for copper and are driving reductions in current prices. It is important to emphasize that copper plays a leading role in the global shift to clean energy, which correlates positively with our assertion that the underlying demand for copper will be strong in the long term. In this scenario, we believe the current cycle of low prices should be short-lived. Now, let's move forward to the mining division's operating and financial highlights on slide 12, please. Division total sales for the first six months of 2022 totaled $5.6 billion, a 7.8% reduction when compared to the same period of 2021.

This was mainly due to non-recurring events such as a stoppage in production in Cuajone, where our operation was illegally blocked by individuals not related to the company, provoking a decrease in production equivalent to $217 million. Lower ore grades, which had an impact of $240 million, and a mark-to-market adjustment to open sales equivalent to $104 million. These unfortunate events and the higher global inflationary costs negatively impacted our EBITDA and EBITDA margin, which closed the first six months of the year in $2.9 billion and 52.4% EBITDA margin, respectively.

Our year-to-date production totaled 481,216 tons of copper, an 11.1% decrease versus the same period of last year, impacted by a temporary stoppage during April and March at Cuajone and the already mentioned lower ore grades. Even though our net cash costs saw an increase of 28% when compared to the same period of 2021, ending at $1.05, we continue to be the cost leader in the industry worldwide. The mining division's CapEx totaled $476 million during the first six months of 2021. Now, as we move forward to slides 13 and 14, I would like to share our project updates and highlights. Let me talk about our short-term projects.

In Pilares, which is expected to be operational by the fourth quarter of 2022, we have already deployed 51% of the investment, and the project has obtained all required permits and licenses. As per our Buenavista zinc project, the engineering study has been completed. The procurement has 99% progress, and the construction site works are in progress with all necessary permits. As for El Pilar, the results on the experimental leaching pads confirm suitable levels of copper recovery. The basic engineering has already been completed, and we continue developing site environmental activities on-site. Now, continuing with our long-term projects, I would like to talk about Los Chancas, Michiquillay, and El Arco.

In our Los Chancas project, we continued to engage in social and environmental improvements for local communities during the quarter, and work in the environmental impact assessment of our 130,000 ton per annum open pit mine projects. Last year, it marked a positive year for the Michiquillay project, as we were able to sign a social agreement with the Michiquillay and Enc añada communities, providing an opportunity to improve the residents' life quality through strong social programs, supported by a solid framework at the project level. All of this, along with the Ministry of Energy and Mines of Peru's approval of the semi-detailed environmental impact study back in October 2021, are important steps that will allow the company to initiate an in-depth exploration program during the second quarter of 2022. When operational, Michiquillay will become one of Peru's largest copper.

Now, as for El Arco, our project located in Baja California, Mexico, we have completed the baseline study and are reviewing the basic engineering analysis to request the environmental impact permit. If we move on to slide 15, you can see a more detail on our robust pipeline of coming projects and their impact to production as we continue our journey to reach 2 million tons of copper per year. That would be all from our mining division's highlights. If you happen to have any follow-up questions, we will be pleased to address them during the Q&A session. Now, I will let Isaac comment on our transportation division.

Isaac Franklin
CFO, Grupo México Transportes

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with the transportation division's financial highlights for the quarter and the year shown in slide 17. First, I'm pleased to announce that we achieved a 6.3% sales increase year-to-date, driven by a positive performance in the majority of our segments, totaling $1.3 billion. Along these lines, our EBITDA saw an improvement of 6.4% versus the first six months of 2021, ending the period in $592 million and a 45% EBITDA margin, in line with the EBITDA margin seen last year. The division's net income totaled $196 million year-to-date, 7.5% higher than the same period of 2021.

Our transported volume saw a decrease due to impact in the automotive, agricultural, and energy segments, resulting in a 6.9% reduction in net tonne-kilometer and 1% decline in car loads. The total number of cars hauled during the second quarter of 2022 totaled 435,028 cars and 940,364 cars year-to-date. As we move forward to slide 18, you can see our main overall highlights. Volumes are higher in the majority of our business units. This quarter's revenues increased 4.1%, setting a record for the quarter and year-to-date revenues for the division. Our EBITDA for the quarter increased 1%, totaling $ 5.930 billion.

Committed to generate value to our shareholders, our board approved a MXN 0.50 per share dividend in line with the last quarter dividend. Continuing with the main variation of our revenue for the quarter on slide 19, as mentioned before, almost all of our segments saw revenue growth during this quarter, with the automotive, agricultural, and energy segment being the only laggards in revenue generation. The automotive segment was affected by the global microchip shortage still impacting manufacturers worldwide and lack of empty railcar due to congestion, translating into a 6% decrease. The agricultural segment saw a 2% decrease, mainly affected by a supply chain congestion, which led to a decrease in imports of shuttle trains of wheat and corn.

The energy segment was affected by a reduction in refined product imports, partially offset by an increase in fuel oil tariffs, translating into a slight reduction of 1%. In relative terms, this quarter's top performance was the industrial segment, which saw an increase of 18% due to market share gains after COVID. The other segment which saw double-digit revenue growth were metals, with similar increase of 18%, where the revenue increase was due to an increased share of Mexican imports and volume of raw materials and finished products. Minerals, with a 13% increase driven by reactivated iron ore traffic and operating efficiency, along with the strong construction activity in Florida, increasing aggregate trade.

Chemicals also increased in double digits, 11%, due to increased Mexican imports of plastic resins and basic chemicals. With medium growth and showing single digit increases, we have the Intermodal segment increasing 7% due to increased volume in Mexico. The Cement segment with a 5% increase propelled by a recovery of the U.S. construction industry. Moving forward to our CapEx for 2022, shown on slide 20, we expect to invest around $447 million, where $291 million will be invested in maintenance projects, such as new rails and their locomotive overhaul. $160 million will be invested in growth projects, such as our intermodal terminals to increase loading and unloading capacity around the ports to capture volume increase in our Monterrey and Celaya bypass.

While $ 140 million will be invested in our efficiency programs, including our LNG locomotive conversion plan and the Coatzacoalcos to Minatitlán double track. This concludes the general overview of the Transportation division. I will now let Francisco comment on the Infrastructure division.

Francisco Zinser
CEO of Infrastructure, Grupo México

Thank you very much, Isaac, and good afternoon to everyone. I will continue today's call by going through the financial highlights of the Infrastructure division, which are shown in slide number 23. The division's solid performance has allowed us to generate value and growth through our different business units during the first half of the year. Our year-to-date revenues totaled $350 million, a strong 16% increase when compared to the same period of last year. Along these lines, our EBITDA amounted to $124 million, 7.6% higher when compared with the same period of 2021. Our cumulative EBITDA margin settled at 40%, while our net income totaled $25 million, an outstanding 39% increase versus 2021, which translates into a $7 million increase.

These great results were mainly driven by the continued operation of our oil rigs, the increase of capacity and tariffs in our toll roads, and the greater number of engineering projects. Before finishing my intervention, I will briefly talk about some of the most relevant events of the division. I would like to highlight that Perforadora Mexico had uninterrupted operations in all of its rigs as we continue to drive our growth strategy, embracing efficiency as a core element of the way in which we operate in order to maintain profitability. The operation during the first half of 2022 had an efficiency of almost 100% and reached an EBITDA of $ 34.6 million, a 9.7% increase versus the first half of 2021.

To conclude, I would like to emphasize the continued growth in daily capacity of over 15% versus 2021 in our toll roads, which propelled the business unit's cumulative revenue and EBITDA to $23.3 million and $15.6 million respectively, which translates in an 18.6% increase in sales and a 23.4% increase in EBITDA when compared to the same period of last year. This ends the Infrastructure Division highlights. Now I will let Marlene proceed with her closing remarks.

Marlene Finny
CFO, Grupo México

Thank you, Francisco. I'll close by thanking you, everybody here, Leonardo, Isaac, for your comments, Francisco as well, and everybody for joining us today. I hope today's presentation gives you a better understanding of what's happening in our division. Now, we will open the line for Q&A.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, simply press star one one on your telephone. One moment while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Regina Carrillo with GBM. Please go ahead.

Regina Carrillo
Associate of Equity Research, GBM

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two. The first one would be, well, we have been reading in the news that Grupo México is bidding for the CitiBanamex unit. Can you give us any color on that? The second is, could you please comment on the decrease in the dividend? If you're expecting better results ahead, could we expect higher dividends as well for the second half of the year? Thank you.

Marlene Finny
CFO, Grupo México

Thank you for your questions, Regina. Regarding your first question, all I can say is that we have been carefully following this process, the process which involves a fundamental institution for the modern history of Mexico, so Banamex. As you know, in Grupo México, we constantly look at new opportunities that could add value to our shareholders, our country, and our company. As we have always done in the past, we maintain a very prudent and cautious approach to inorganic growth, given our strong pipeline of projects in our three divisions.

In that sense, answering also your second question, dividends, yes, they were lower this quarter when compared to past quarters, but we remain with a high dividend yield of above 5%, one of the highest in Mexico, and is in line with roughly 80% of our net income, as in past quarters. Having said that, I would like to highlight that we maintain a strong commitment towards organic growth within the company, our projects, and our focus and priority in returning value to our shareholders and the communities in which we operate. Nevertheless, we will continue to constantly analyze accretive M&A opportunities to create value in our industries or other industries that could make sense depending on prices, numbers and everything that we would have to look at.

Regina Carrillo
Associate of Equity Research, GBM

Thank you, Marlene.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question is from Carlos de Alba with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Carlos de Alba
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Yeah. Thank you very much, Marlene, Leonardo, Isaac, and Francisco. Question I have is mostly for Leonardo and Francisco. The first one is if you could, maybe Leonardo, give us an update on the Asarco outlook of production outlook and sales for this year, as well as cash costs before and after byproducts. Any other specific projects or updates that you have for Asarco, perhaps on CapEx, or any other projects that may be of interest. Francisco, could you please give us an update on the megawatt-hour produced in the quarter by the energy business?

As well as if you have them, maybe share the revenues and EBITDA of the fuel terminals as a new segment. Thank you very much.

Leonardo Contreras
Director and General Manager of Mining Division, Grupo México

Good afternoon, Carlos. I will probably take on the first question. First of all, the guidance for Asarco's production should be around 120,000 metric tons. We're expecting a cash cost before byproducts of $2.87, and after byproducts, $2.73. Then you usually ask what was the cash cost for this quarter. It was also $2.91 before byproducts and after byproducts, $2.81. As for projects in Asarco for now, this next quarter we should begin the ramp up of our Hayden concentrator in terms of slag processing, so we could hopefully have some good news by next quarter. As for Asarco, I think that's most of what we can share with you at the moment.

Francisco Zinser
CEO of Infrastructure, Grupo México

Regarding your second question, the accumulated amount of megawatt hours produced for the power plant is 1,425,086. That's in the complete period of January to June of this year, which is a 10% decrease versus last year. This is mostly because we had a major outage, planned and programmed outage in the power plant number one, because it's already eight years old and it's when it has to be done. Regarding your second question about terminals, right now, as we have informed before, we are in standby with our terminals project because of some of the changes in regulation that have been happening. We really don't have an outlook for now.

Carlos de Alba
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Thank you very much for that, Leonardo, Francisco. Just Francisco, so the terminals, the fuel terminals division is not generating revenue at the moment or EBITDA?

Francisco Zinser
CEO of Infrastructure, Grupo México

Correct.

Carlos de Alba
Equity Research Analyst, Morgan Stanley

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

One moment for our next question. Next question is from Lucila Gomez with Compass Group. Please go ahead.

Lucila Gomez
Investment Research Analyst, Compass Group

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. It's about the previous situation in Cuajone. I know that it's been resolved, but my question is, are volumes back to normal levels? The second question would be, after the Peruvian government resolution, is there maybe a risk that happen again and impact operations?

Marlene Finny
CFO, Grupo México

Sorry. If, Lucila, your second question was regarding the government bill? We couldn't get it very well. Could you repeat that part?

Lucila Gomez
Investment Research Analyst, Compass Group

My second question is, I know that there's been a resolution, but is there maybe a risk this could happen again?

Marlene Finny
CFO, Grupo México

Leonardo, do you wanna take that question?

Leonardo Contreras
Director and General Manager of Mining Division, Grupo México

Yes. Are you referring to the Cuajone, Lucila, no? Hello, do you copy me?

Marlene Finny
CFO, Grupo México

It was referred to Cuajone, but I think her end has a little bit of trouble.

Leonardo Contreras
Director and General Manager of Mining Division, Grupo México

Well, as we have been in these talks with the community and they have moved on. As we understand, most of the community members are in favor of keep talking and getting to reaching an agreement. Now, that's our current expectation, and the government is helping us to fulfill this goal.

Lucila Gomez
Investment Research Analyst, Compass Group

Perfect. Clear.

Leonardo Contreras
Director and General Manager of Mining Division, Grupo México

Okay.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. We have a question from Alfonso Salazar with Scotiabank. Please proceed.

Alfonso Salazar
Director, Scotiabank

Yes, thank you, and good day, everyone. I have two questions. The first one is regarding the Tren Maya. There are some press articles saying that Grupo México is no longer participating in the project. Just want to confirm if that is right. If you can elaborate on that and what are the reasons behind you know if you are no longer part of the project.

The second question is related to the outlook for the copper market in the long term. If you have a view what your expectations for the long term copper outlook, there are many analysts and investors, and I include myself, that have been bullish copper for a very long time, you know, simply because we are expecting, you know, supply to be disrupted and a strong demand. Now it seems that demand is a bigger concern for investors, especially for what is happening in China and in the developed markets. Just wondering how are you seeing this and, you know, if you see any risk of changes to the copper market more in the long term.

Not necessarily, you know, the fact that we could see, you know, a weak market in the coming months, but something more structural regarding the demand side, not the supply, but the demand side. If you can make any comment on that, I will appreciate that.

Francisco Zinser
CEO of Infrastructure, Grupo México

Regarding your first question about the Mayan Train , as you know, there have been some injunctions and suspension of the project that we were constructing that goes from Playa del Carmen to Tulum. Those suspensions started back in April, and they are still nowadays valid. Therefore, there was a mutual agreement with the government. They declared the project to be of national security and was handed over to the SEDENA. Grupo México is no longer part of the project. This was again a mutual agreement between the parties and mostly because of the injunctions that nowadays have the project stopped. That's basically the reason.

Leonardo Contreras
Director and General Manager of Mining Division, Grupo México

Okay. Alfonso, I will take on the copper market question. I mean, as we mentioned earlier, you know, there's three things happening throughout the world. One is the COVID policy in China and how they will come after that. We do think that it's still uncertain. Second, the European energy crisis at the moment. As well, we're also following the potential growth or recession in the U.S., you know. We do think that those three factors will have an effect in the short term. We don't know if it's six, 12 or 18 months. Regardless of that, we do see still, and we're very bullish as you are, in terms of the offer and the demand for copper.

We do see a deficit in the upcoming years. The fundamentals are very solid. We see that there's too much uncertainty and volatility at the moment. We all think that this is just a short term, and it will eventually go away.

Alfonso Salazar
Director, Scotiabank

Okay. Thank you for the confirmation about the Maya railway and for your outlook for copper. Just one final suggestion. Thank you as well for providing more details on what's going on in Asarco. You know, we saw what is going on in Mission and Silver Bell. Please keep that coming. It's very useful for us as analysts to understand better this asset, what's going on in Asarco. It's just an invitation to be more on Asarco. Really helps us a lot. Thank you.

Marlene Finny
CFO, Grupo México

Thank you. We take your feedback into consideration. Thank you, Alfonso. We will try to continue to give you more and more information and more disclosure as you need. If not, we are always available for any questions you might have. Thank you for the feedback, Alfonso.

Operator

One moment for our next question. We have a question from Isabella Vasconcelos with Bradesco. Please go ahead.

Isabella Vasconcelos
Equity Research Analyst, Bradesco

Thank you. Good afternoon or morning to you all. I have a quick question here on the transportation division, and more specifically on how you're seeing the evolution of volumes recently across sectors and if you maintain the guidance for volume growth this year, if I'm not mistaken, of between a range of 5%-7% or if we could expect a change in that estimate. Thank you.

Marlene Finny
CFO, Grupo México

Isabella, sorry, we didn't get your question very well. Regarding volumes in the mining division, the transportation division or?

Isabella Vasconcelos
Equity Research Analyst, Bradesco

In the transportation division.

Marlene Finny
CFO, Grupo México

Okay, sure. Isaac, do you wanna take that question or?

Isaac Franklin
CFO, Grupo México Transportes

Yeah. Yeah. Thank you.

Marlene Finny
CFO, Grupo México

Yeah.

Isaac Franklin
CFO, Grupo México Transportes

Thank you, Isabella. Well, regarding, there were some external factors that affected our volumes during the second quarter, and mainly was changing our operating system. It has been a short interruption or more than interruption. It really affected our interchange volumes with some of our U.S. partners. It lasted 10 days, the system.

was 50 years old, so we were in the need to change it. On the other side, part of the volumes were hurt mainly in agricultural because of the congestion on the U.S. side. That prevent us from moving more shuttle trains of wheat and corn and the automotive industry. The thing is first, the shortage of microchips, so the plants are not producing as many cars. The second one is because of the same congestion on the U.S. side, the empty cars that need to be loaded here in Mexico are not coming as fast as it's needed. That affected our volumes. We also

what we expect is for the second half of the year to be resolved, and we're optimistic on the volumes for the second half of the year.

Isabella Vasconcelos
Equity Research Analyst, Bradesco

Thank you.

Operator

One moment for our next question. We have a Sofía Martin with the GBM. Your line is open. Go ahead.

Sofía Martin
Senior Equity Research Analyst, GBM

It has already been an-

Operator

You're breaking up a little bit, please.

Sofía Martin
Senior Equity Research Analyst, GBM

My question was already answered. Thank you very much.

Operator

Oh, you're welcome. Sir, I'm not showing any further questions. You can go ahead with your final remarks.

Marlene Finny
CFO, Grupo México

Well, thank you, everybody, for joining us. We'll keep in touch and hope to talk with you next quarter or before that. Thank you, Francisco, Isaac, Leonardo, and everybody here as well for being in the call.

Operator

With that, ladies and gentlemen, thank you so much for joining.

Isaac Franklin
CFO, Grupo México Transportes

Thank you.

Operator

This concludes the call. You may now disconnect.

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