Good morning, and welcome to Vista's 2025 Investor Day. Today's call is being recorded. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. This event is hosted by Vista's executive team and attended by sell-side analysts on-site. Analysts present in the room will be allowed to ask questions when instructed. Webcast participants can submit their questions using the text box below the broadcast screen at any time during the presentation. There will be no audio questions taken through phone lines today. Phone line participants may use the webcast link on the event website, www.vistainvestorday.com, to submit their questions. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Vista's Co-founder, Strategic Planning and Investor Relations Officer, Mr. Alejandro Chernakoff. Sir, please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. We are pleased to welcome you to Vista's 2025 Investor Day, our third since we started operations back in 2018. Today, we will update you on Vista's progress since our last Investor Day, explaining how we have set the stage for our next phase of profitable growth and present our new 2026-2028 targets. Before we begin, let me remind you that today's presentations and our responses during the Q&A session may include forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. All financial figures are in US dollars and in accordance with IFRS. We may also reference non-IFRS metrics such as adjusted EBITDA. Reconciliation of historical figures is available in our public filings.
During today's presentations, we will refer to previous targets as those set in our 2024 to 2026 plan, disclosed, as you may remember, during our 2023 Investor Day. We will refer to new targets as those introduced for the 2026 to 2028 period and our 2030 vision. Please refer to slide 2 for the full text of our Safe Harbor Statement. We will begin our presentation with Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman of the Board, and CEO, who will open the event by showcasing how Vista has scaled its leadership in Vaca Muerta and how our unique playbook delivers profitable growth with industry-leading total shareholder returns. Next, Juan Garoby, Co-founder and CTO, and Matías Weissel, our COO, will provide a deep dive into how Vista is leveraging innovation at scale and new technologies to double down on efficient growth. They will also provide an updated production forecast through 2028.
Following that, Pablo Vera Pinto, Co-founder and CFO, and myself will walk you through our updated financial outlook. We will present how Vista's export-driven business model, disciplined capital allocation, and cost leadership translate into strong EBITDA and Free Cash Flow growth, a strengthened balance sheet, and robust shareholder returns. To close, Miguel will outline our 2030 vision, which reflects a company with higher scale, continued growth, and global competitiveness. Before we begin, a few housekeeping items. We expect today's presentation to last around 40 minutes, followed by Q&A. If you are joining virtually, you'll be able to ask questions via chat at the end. A replay and the presentation deck will be shortly on vistaenergy.com. With this, I'll now hand the presentation over to Miguel.
Good morning and welcome to Vista's 2025 Investor Day. Two years ago, when we met for our last Investor Day, we discussed how, in just five years since inception, we have built the company we envisioned when we founded Vista: a leading, efficient, high-growth, and profitable Oil Producer with a clear purpose and a shy, world-class team capable of delivering exceptional results. We also said that Vista was ready to accelerate growth and strengthen its leadership in Vaca Muerta. Today, I am proud to say we overdelivered. Since 2021, we have tripled production and quadrupled adjusted EBITDA. We are now entering a new phase of growth, one that builds on what we have achieved, taking Vista to the next level with the largest scale. Our next phase is self-funded and is set to deliver more profitable growth and industry-leading margins. This will generate an increasing amount of free cash flow.
By 2028, we plan to increase production to 180,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day and an adjusted EBITDA to $2.8 billion, 75% above our guidance for 2025. During this period, we forecast our ROSI to remain above 20%, a level that puts Vista among the highest-return E&P companies globally. Where do we see ourselves five years from now? By 2030, we expect to be generating $1.5 billion of free cash flow per year. We have the asset, the capabilities, and the committed team to become a cash-generating machine ready to deliver sustainable long-term value. That is what scaling success looks like for Vista. I will now provide you with more detail on how this strategy translates into more growth and higher efficiency. Let's start with a quick recap of our growth story.
Since our Investor Day in 2021, we tripled in size with total production growing from 39,000 to 114,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025. We quadrupled adjusted EBITDA from $380 million in 2021 to approximately $1.6 billion in 2025. We are now the largest independent Oil Producer in Argentina and have also become the largest oil exporter in the country. The strength of our business model is clearly reflected in our numbers. Vista has consistently outperformed peers across efficiency, profitability, and shareholder returns. At $40 per barrel, our net back reflects a profitable, low-cost operation and provides resilience to lower oil prices. Our average ROSI since 2021 was 31%, reflecting the successful execution of our capital allocation framework. Since 2021, our share price has compounded at 73% per year, one of the strongest performances in the global E&P space.
This combination of operational excellence and disciplined capital allocation is what sets Vista apart. It's not only about growing fast; it is about growing profitably, generating cash, and delivering tangible value to our shareholders. We have done the work to de-risk Vista's next phase of growth, and we are now ready to raise the bar again. We de-risk and acquire new acreage. We now have more than 1,650 wells in our ready-to-drill inventory, an addition of 500 wells since our last Investor Day. Of these, more than 1,300, or 80%, are yet to be drilled. We secure drilling and completion equipment, as well as treatment, transportation, and export capacity. We now have four drilling rigs and two frac sets under contracts and operation, doubling 2023 operating capabilities. We also double oil treatment capacity and triple contracted pipeline capacity.
We triple export volumes, which now represent 62% of oil production, 10 percentage points above 2023. We are fully funded to deliver double-digit growth. We are now free cash flow positive, an issue of long-term financial debt, which provides us with substantial financial flexibility. We have consolidated one of the most experienced, committed management teams in the region. We have a unique culture based on fundamentality and full alignment of incentives. In short, we have built an outstanding company ready to grow profitably into the next decade. Now, let's take a step back and look at the big picture with the global energy context. In today's fast-evolving energy landscape, one thing is clear: demand for oil is not going away anytime soon. On the contrary, we expect oil demand to continue growing for several years before reaching a plateau.
This growth will be mainly driven by economic development in the emerging markets, where energy demand per capita is still four to five times lower than in the developed world. At the same time, investment in oil exploration and development over the past decade leads us to have a constructive view on mid and long-term oil prices. Finally, evolving geopolitical dynamics are leading to higher volatility in the commodity market and an increased need for reliable and affordable energy. We believe the winners in the next decade will be the low-cost, short-cycle, reliable energy producers, and that is where exactly Vista stands. We have the playbook to thrive in this context, and it's based on three pillars.
First, a large, high-quality, short-cycle, and low-cost asset base with a total unit cost of approximately $11 per barrel and 1,300 wells yet to be drilled, each with a payback of only two years. Second, a strong culture driven by a team that is relentless to achieve results, committed to people, and guided by innovation and agility. Third, a solid total shareholder return strategy supported by a disciplined capital allocation framework that has delivered a 73% share price figure since 2021. This playbook has proven to work, and now we are ready to apply it on a larger scale. We are now entering another phase of profitable growth to continue delivering superior shareholder returns. By 2028, we expect production to reach 180,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, a 58% increase from 114,000 in 2025.
Adjusted EBITDA is projected to grow by 75% from around $1.6 billion in 2025 to $2.8 billion in 2028. This growth will generate around $1.5 billion of cumulative free cash flow between 2026 and 2028, providing us with the flexibility to return cash to shareholders, delever, and pursue accretive M&A opportunities when they arise. In short, our growth is profitable, and our balance sheet is strong, future-proofing shareholder returns. Operational excellence and sustainability remain at the core of everything we do. Since our last Investor Day, we have made very good progress in reducing carbon emission intensity, developing carbon credits through our Nature-Based Solutions projects, maintaining a strong safety track record, and proactively engaging with the local communities. Gabriela Prete, our Operational Excellence Manager, will share a brief update of these topics from a unique location in Argentina.
Thank you, Miguel. Since day one, we have worked hard to build a company of high standards that is fit for the future. Safety is the bedrock of our organization. We operate with the highest oil and gas industry standards in accordance with established international best practices. Our strong and consistent safety track record is a consequence of stringent adherence to procedures, tailored training, and close supplier engagement. Our goal is to maintain our total recordable incident rate below 1, in line with industry best practices. We have achieved this target over the last five years. The focused execution of our emissions reduction strategy has allowed us to achieve a greenhouse gas emissions intensity in our oil and gas operations, including Scope 1 and 2, of only 7.5 kilograms of CO2 equivalent per BOE in 2025.
This ranks us among the first diesel worldwide and more than 75% below the global average. This was achieved by investing in highly efficient projects, which allows us to maintain a very competitive lifting cost. Some examples include the installation of vapor recovery units, the construction of a gas pipeline linking Aguada Federal with Embajada del Palo Oeste, the electrification of new gas compression units, and the use of cost-competitive renewable energy across our oil fields. I am standing here in Rolonque, our flagship MBS project, surrounded by millions of trees that did not exist just three years ago. This is a clear testimony of our positive contribution to the environment. Here, AIKE, a Vista subsidiary, has developed an afforestation project that combines native and exotic trees. AIKE manages 13 nature-based projects spanning 43,000 hectares across seven provinces in Argentina.
Since 2022, AIKE planted around 5 million trees in afforestation projects, achieving average growth rates comparable to leading international projects. Argentina's natural endowment allows AIKE to generate low-cost, high-quality carbon credits. We have sized our MBS project so that the carbon credit generated by AIKE matches the size of Vista's residual hard-to-abate emissions in 2026. Vista takes a proactive approach to engagement with local communities. Since 2021, we contributed almost $5 million to voluntary social programs focused on education, employment, and biodiversity. We have partnered with more than 10 NGOs across the country to implement these initiatives. Our high standards make our operations more resilient and strengthen our license to operate. I will now hand it over to Matías, who will continue with the presentation.
Good morning, everyone. Together with Juan, we'll walk you through Vista's production growth strategy, focusing on operational excellence, efficiency, and growth. Since our last Investor Day, Vista has continued to scale at an exceptional pace. Production more than doubled since 2023, reaching 114,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025. Our proved reserves grew by 60% to a total of 519 million barrels of oil equivalent at the end of 2024 on a pro forma basis. This growth was driven by both strong organic development and the successful integration of the 50% stake acquired in La Amarga Chica. Our focus on productivity is demonstrated by outstanding well performance. When we compare Vista's wells across Vaca Muerta, our productivity consistently exceeds that of peers, reflecting the quality of our assets and our best-in-class operating capabilities.
In the first six months of production, the average Vista wells delivers approximately 200,000 barrels of oil normalized to a 2,800-meter lateral length. That is a 24% above the Vaca Muerta average and a 48% above the Permian average. After 12 months, the trend remains the same. With a cumulative production of 330,000 barrels of oil, the average Vista well produces around 22% more than the Vaca Muerta average and around 72% more than the Permian average, also on a normalized basis. This consistent outperformance gives us the confidence that our model is both repeatable and scalable as we continue expanding development across our acreage. Our standard investment unit is a four-well pad, which has a 120-day time to market, including drilling, completion, and tie-in. With a payback period of only two years, the short-cycle models give us a distinct competitive advantage in a volatile environment.
Vista's long-term growth is supported by its large, high-quality, short-cycle well inventory. Our inventory has increased by 500 wells since 2023, driven by, first, the acquisition of 50% La Amarga Chica, neighboring our core development hub, and second, the successful pilot recently completed in a new development area within Embajada del Palo Oeste, expanding our core development inventory. Today, we have around 1,300 wells yet to be drilled, providing an inventory of at least 10 years with break-even prices of $45 per barrel. Looking ahead, we plan to continue de-risking our acreage and see additional inventory upside from untested landing zones within our existing blocks. Juan will now deep dive into how we have successfully implemented technology and innovation to extend our well inventory, improve efficiency, and reduce costs.
Good morning. I am very excited to share the successful results of the pilot project in the center of Vaca Muerta Bajada del Palo Oeste, an area partially covered by structural faults. We confirmed the technical feasibility of drilling and completing wells in between faults, a concept we were the first to test in Vaca Muerta. This is yet another example of our innovative and pioneering approach to developing the play. The wells have 2,800 meters of lateral length and an average of 48 stimulation stages, and are showing very good productivity. After 45 days, they produced, on average, 55,000 barrels of oil, in line with the average Vaca Muerta Bajada del Palo Oeste well. Based on these results, we have added 180 new wells to our inventory in Vaca Muerta Bajada del Palo Oeste, Coirón Amargo Norte, and Vaca Muerta Bajada del Palo Oeste. Growing our inventory is only part of the story.
Another key driver of our competitiveness is how efficiently we develop it. As we continue expanding our drilling runway, we're also focused on further reducing well cost. In 2024, our average drilling and completion cost was $14.2 million per well. Today, our D&C cost has been reduced to $12.3 million. By the end of 2026, we expect to reach $11.7 million per well and $11 million by the end of 2028. These gains come from innovating and adopting new technology and optimizing processes. For example, we recently adopted bulk transportation of wet sand, eliminating sand drying costs and reducing sand logistic costs. We implemented an innovative real-time stimulation process that enhances well completions and lowers completion cost. We also deployed new remotely operated directional drilling technology to further reduce costs.
Finally, we introduced new contracting practices by, for example, debundling drilling services and renegotiating certain key contracts, achieving additional cost savings. These combined efforts have made Vista one of the lowest-cost operators in Vaca Muerta. We never stop innovating. Over the coming months, we will implement new cost reduction initiatives, such as moving our sand washing plant to our core hub to further reduce sand logistic costs. We have recently adopted bulk wet sand transportation, which has already resulted in a cost reduction of around $200,000 per well. During 2026, we plan to relocate our sand plant to our core development hub and source sand from nearby sand mines. By doing so, we expect to significantly reduce transport distances, lowering both sand transportation cost and our footprint.
Once fully executed, we expect this project to reduce sand cost by an additional $400,000 per well, bringing total savings to approximately $600,000 per well. I will now deep dive into an example of how our thorough understanding of the subsurface allowed us to implement a real-time completion optimization process aimed to reduce cost and improve productivity. We have introduced real-time monitoring capabilities using in-house proprietary AI tools, which allow us to monitor how stresses build up during the hydraulic stimulation process and adjust completion strategy accordingly. This innovative practice helps reduce the probability of runaway fracs, improve frac hit identification, characterization, and decision-making to mitigate impact on parent wells. This novel technology was implemented earlier this year and has already improved key operation metrics. We reduced lost completion stages to less than 1%.
We cut on average one runaway frac stage per well, and we generated average savings of $150,000 per well. Looking ahead, we have a portfolio of productivity-enhancing technologies that will be tested in the coming years, such as half-and-half, surfactant injection, and the acquisition of a new 3D seismic that should eliminate parts of the field looking for buckets of productivity that have not been identified to the moment.
Building on our strong foundations, our solid operational expertise, large asset base, low unit costs, and unique culture, we are ready to pursue a new phase of profitable growth. We are planned to tie in between 80 and 90 wells per year between 2026 and 2028, requiring $1.5-$1.6 billion of CAPEX per year. All the capacity needed to execute this plan, drilling, completion, crews, treatment, transportation, and export, is already secured.
This plan will increase production from 114,000 BOEs per day today to 140,000 in 2026, 160,000 in 2027, and 180,000 BOEs per day by 2028. That represents an increase of almost 60% in three years, implying a CAGR of 16%. With that, I hand it over to Pablo Vera , who will take you through how this operational performance translates into financial strength and superior total shareholder returns.
Thank you, Matías. Good morning, everyone. Over the next few minutes, Ale and I will present how our profitable growth plan translates into strong financial metrics that enable us to continue delivering industry-leading total shareholder returns while maintaining a robust balance sheet. Our business model is export-driven. Virtually all incremental barrels we produce will be sold into international markets. Exports improve the quality of our revenues, diversifying commercial risk and providing a strong currency hedge.
Our total revenues are expected to grow by 72% from about $2.5 billion in 2025 to $3 billion in 2026 and $4.3 billion by 2028. We plan to double export revenues from $1.5 billion in 2025 to $3.2 billion by 2028. This means that by 2028, around three-quarters of Vista's total revenues will come from oil exports, up from 60% today. Our oil exports will reach destinations across the world, including North and South America, Europe, Asia, and Australia. Our cost base remains among the most competitive in the sector globally, ensuring resilience in low oil price environments while maintaining significant upside exposure to higher oil prices. By combining low lifting cost, efficient transportation through pipelines, and a lean organization, we plan to maintain unit costs at $11 per barrel. With Brent between $60 and $70, our net back ranges from $38 to $46 per barrel.
Even at $50 Brent, we still generate a healthy net back of $29, with an upside potential of reaching $54 per barrel in a scenario of Brent at $80. To maintain production at 130,000 BOEs per day, our expected Q4 2025 production rate, we need to invest the equivalent of $15 per barrel. After deducting this maintenance CAPEX and financial interest plus income tax, our free cash flow to equity ranges between $13 and $19 per barrel in a scenario of Brent in the range of $60-$70. I will now give the floor to Ale, who will walk you through our financial projections.
Thank you, Pablo. Our growth plan is expected to deliver solid financial results. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to grow from $1.6 billion in 2025 to $1.9 billion in 2026 and $2.8 billion in 2028.
This is an increase of 75%, which implies a 21% CAGR over the next three years. During the same period, our adjusted EBITDA margin will remain around 65%. Our average ROSI over that period is forecast to be well above 20%, keeping Vista's return on capital among the industry's top quartile. We plan to deliver double-digit growth while generating substantial free cash flow too. Between 2026 and 2028, we expect to generate cumulative free cash flow of $1.5 billion. This financial strength gives us the flexibility to return cash to shareholders, reduce gross debt, and pursue synergetic business development opportunities. High profitability and strong cash flow generation will continue to strengthen our balance sheet. We expect to deliver self-funded growth while organically reducing net leverage. Gross debt currently stands at about $2.9 billion, with an average maturity of 4.5 years and an average interest rate of 6.7%.
We have a sound debt maturity profile, with annual debt repayments representing an average of only 15% of annual adjusted EBITDA over the next three years. Looking ahead, we expect gross debt to remain broadly stable, while the net leverage ratio declines organically from 1.5 times today to below 1 times by 2028, mainly driven by the continued growth of our adjusted EBITDA. Our business plan is designed to deliver value across all different oil price cycles, supported by our low-cost base, capital discipline, and operational and contractual flexibility. In our base case, we expect to generate $1.5 billion of free cash flow between 2026 and 2028, assuming Brent at $65 in 2026 and $70 thereafter. In a downside scenario, with Brent $10 below our current base assumption, we can still deliver the same self-funded production growth, still generating $500 million of free cash flow.
In an upside scenario, with Brent $10 above the base case assumption, free cash flow rises to $2.5 billion over the same period. That means $1 billion more. This resilience, combined with our ability to rapidly adjust our activity to market conditions, has been and will continue to be a cornerstone of Vista's success.
Our capital allocation priorities, which have delivered solid total shareholder returns since 2021, remain firmly in place. Our focus is simple and remains unchanged: generate cash, maintain financial discipline, and allocate capital where it creates the most value. We will efficiently deploy net cash generation to return cash to shareholders, initially prioritizing share buybacks. We may also use cash to reduce gross debt, accelerating deleveraging and further strengthening our balance sheet.
Finally, and in line with our proven track record of generating value through business development, we will continue evaluating selective synergistic M&A opportunities focused on the oil window of Vaca Muerta. This disciplined approach will allow us to maximize total shareholder returns while maintaining financial flexibility. Miguel will now briefly close with our 2030 vision.
Thank you, Pablo. As we look ahead, our 2030 vision is clear. Our plan is to deliver double-digit production growth over the next five years. As I said before, we have the playbook, and we will continue to apply it at the large scale. By the end of the decade, we expect to produce over 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, 33% above the forecast we shared during our 2023 Investor Day. This production growth is forecast to generate an increasing amount of free cash flow driven by our highly efficient operating model.
As we continue to scale and reduce costs, we expect to deliver strong returns on capital. This allows us to envision a company that, by 2030, assuming a mid-commodity cycle Brent of $70 per barrel, is projected to generate a recurring free cash flow of around $1.5 billion per annum. Before we move to Q&A, let me summarize today's key messages. In this presentation, you have seen how we have materially transformed Vista, scaling our production, strengthening profitability, and becoming a leading independent player in Vaca Muerta. Our growth is built on efficiency and capital discipline, designed to deliver value across oil price cycles. Importantly, it is fully aligned with the global energy market dynamic. We have de-risked the next phase of growth, expanding our oil inventory and securing drilling and completion equipment, crews, pipeline, and export infrastructure while maintaining financial flexibility to keep growing profitably.
Our updated plan drives double-digit annual EBITDA growth, and we will continue delivering industry-leading total shareholder return. Vista is still a young company. Yet, in just seven years, we have become the benchmark for performance in Vaca Muerta and one of the most profitable independent EMP companies in America. We have the assets, the team, the culture to keep creating value for our shareholders, for Vaca Muerta, and for Argentina. Thank you for your continued trust and support and for showing us in this next phase of growth. I will now move to Q&A.
As a reminder, analysts present in the room may ask their questions when instructed. Webcast participants can submit their questions using the text box below the broadcast screen at any time. Phone line participants may use the webcast link on the event website, www.vistainvestorday.com, to submit their questions. Thanks.
First question from Alejandro de Michele from Jefferies.
Thank you very much for taking my question. Miguel, one quick question. It has been a tremendous journey since the four of you put the company together only a few years ago. Now you're entering a new phase of growth. Maybe you can talk about the culture. What's the secret sauce that you have here to deliver on this next phase, please?
Thank you, Alejandro. Good question to the heart. I will say talented people and company culture. At the end of the day, companies are run by people. We have extraordinary people in a culture that empowers them to deliver extraordinary results. They have been delivering results that have beaten market expectations, shareholder expectations, and sometimes their own expectations. I also like to say that Vista is a company run by their owners.
Between 30% and 40% of our employees hold and have received Vista shares. Remuneration of the leaders that you will meet tomorrow has a component of 40% of Vista shares. The C-suite, 75% of their compensation is Vista shares. That gives an extraordinary incentive to deliver results fully aligned with our shareholders. Today, we discuss a lot about operational excellence. Operational excellence for us is a blend of competency, talent, processes, technology, and innovation. That is in the heart of everything that we do. When we drill well, we think about operational excellence. When we complete it well, when we close an M&A transaction, when we develop an export market, when we manage risk above and below surface, we think on operational excellence. Also, we have an entrepreneurial mentality. We like to keep things lean.
That's why, despite this enormous growth that we have had during the last seven years, we have maintained our organization extremely lean. We have set a rule to ourselves that between a tool pusher that is today drilling in Vaca Muerta and myself, we cannot have more than four layers. That ensures us that the decision-making process is still simple and still fast. We born as a startup. When you look at Vista today, it has the size of a corporation. We remain thinking as a startup. That's why innovation is in everything that we do. We have a team fully dedicated to innovation. It is run by Juan that today wears the hat of CTO. You will meet Pepe Biondi tomorrow in Neuquén that is leading that front in the field. Innovation is key for us to basically be ahead.
I have taken most of the calls, all the calls during the quarter review. Today, during the Investor Day, I plan to give the floor to the people that have built the company with me, that are scoring me today, the C-suite that is sitting here. Tomorrow also, we will give you full exposure to the people that we have in the field. Back to your question and back to my fair answers, this talent of people is what makes us a company that is different and that manages to deliver the result that we have delivered so far. Thank you very much for the question.
Thank you.
The next question from Claudia Rivera from Santander.
Thank you for taking my question. My first question is, what were the key factors behind the decision to accelerate drilling and increase well count?
What led you to set this specific number of wells at the right level of activity?
Super. I will let that question be answered by Pablo and Matías, both parts of your question.
Perfect. Thank you, Claudia. I would say the primary driver, I can even say the only driver, is to drive enterprise value. In our case, more production growth is more value growth, right? Every well we drill adds value to Vista. The wells we are drilling next year have an IRR of between 40-60%. If you look at our track record of return capital employed, it is above 30% for the last five years. It is going to be well above 20% for the next five years. That is almost double our cost of capital, right? It makes a lot of sense to go to this higher level of CapEx.
Obviously, there are certain considerations to not go too aggressively into production growth mode. That has mainly to do with maintaining a strong balance sheet. We have been free cash flow positive in Q4. We are going to deliver a Q4 that is free cash flow positive. We have set a rule to be free cash flow positive during 2026. That puts sort of a financial limit to the pace of growth. There are obviously other operational considerations when it comes to defining what is the optimal level. I will let Matías comment on that.
Thank you, Pablo. Yes, when you design a field, we are fully focused on the core deployment hub. This rig count of four rigs in operated areas has a sense that it is derived, we build and design development in corridors.
One of each of those rigs is going to drill in each of the corridors, talking about Bajada del Palo South corridor, North corridor, and also BPE. To add to that, we have already all the capacity contracted in terms of internal capacity of treatment, also transport. We have the crews. Also in the market, happens the same. You have three triangles. In each of the triangles, YPF is going to operate with one rig. Somehow we have designed from the subsurface to the surface the way we want to develop the field. That is really combined with the business point of view that Pablo just answered.
Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question is from Leonardo Macondes from Bank of America.
Hey, guys. Thank you for the event today. My question is, how sensitive is your business plan to oil prices?
I mean, what is the price range that your plan remains untouched, right? From both upper and bottom of the range, right? And another key point to understand is, is it free cash flow driven? I mean, if oil prices average, I don't know, $90 or $80 per barrel over the next years, would you consider accelerating the drilling plan in order to maintain the free cash flow indicated in your guidance? Also observing the infrastructure potential bottleneck there, right? Thank you.
Thank you, Leonardo. I will leave this question to Alejandro.
Hi, Leon. Thank you, Miguel. I mean, let's start with sensitivities. I mean, if we think of the plan, I think we're going to be generating $7.2 billion of EBITDA in the next three years. If you move prices $10 up or $10 down, it's approximately $1.2 billion of difference.
It would be $8.4 billion or $6 billion if you see it on an EBITDA number. If you relate this a bit more to free cash flow, I think we covered that on the presentation, $10 less. That is why I want to use this number. Takes that $1.5 billion that we are going to be generating in the next three years to $500,000. You are still going to be growing at the same pace, targeting those 180,000 or those 200,000 barrels per day in 2030 by generating $500,000 of free cash flow over the next three years.
What I would say there is that those $65 or $70 that we're seeing from $27 onwards, lowering them by $10 will still give you a position where $55 next year or $65 or $60 going forward, you're still going to be delivering the same amount of growth. On the lower side, I would say at those levels, it will continue the same way. If it goes a little bit below that, we'll see how we play with the CapEx. Of course, see how much CapEx actually costs in a lower price environment. Now, let's see it on the other side, as you said. I mean, let's say prices go to $80 or $90. The way we plan the development, and I think Matías just covered part of that, this is what we plan to do in terms of production.
We might accelerate a bit here or there, but it really will go around the production that we are actually targeting today. That additional cash flow, if we actually have a positive year or a positive part of the cycle, we will probably use to either delever the company. It is a good time to delever sometimes when you actually have a higher price of oil or a peak. Also, another way is to return more cash to shareholders. Great.
Thank you.
Next question comes from Tiago Casquero from Morgan Stanley.
Hey, good morning. Thanks for the event and for taking my question. My question is related to drilling and completion costs. Given the $11.7 million for year-end 2026 and then $11 million in 2028, where do you currently see the comparable figures for Permian? Also, do you see upsides to your numbers here?
Put in other words, do you see further room to reduce this number or even accelerate the reduction through 2028? Thank you.
Good question, Tiago. I will pass it to Juan.
Thank you, Tiago. Okay, so as far as our comparison to Permian, besides the difference in scale, where in Permian you have more than 500 rigs drilling and in Vaca Muerta you have less than 40, besides the capital cost in one country and the other, there are some specific technical differences between Permian and Vaca Muerta. I'll get a bit technical on this, but in Vaca Muerta, the confined stress is much higher than in Permian. That makes the rock more difficult to be drilled. Also, in Vaca Muerta, we need one additional casing strength to isolate areas or formations of different pressure regimes.
We use equipment and techniques for managed pressure drilling that is not something that is used in Permian. Also, the cost of labor here in Argentina is higher. We expect that to be partially at least tackled with the labor reform that is sent to the Congress in December. There are some specific differences between Vaca Muerta and Permian. As far as going below $11 million, we have put together a team, as Miguel said, that is fully focused on well cost. We are reviewing everything. We are reviewing all the constructor. We are reviewing contracts and we are renegotiating contracts. We are reviewing processes and we are analyzing and testing new technologies. With that, we have a portfolio of opportunities that will take us to this $11 million number.
There are some other opportunities and some other technologies that are being analyzed at the moment and will be tested probably in the future that may help us go further down. For instance, integration as a vertical integration as we did with the sand plant production and logistics, going further on that may help us on reducing our well cost even further.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. Next question from Tasso Vasconcellos from UBS.
Hi, everyone. It's been very interesting to follow the story from Vista to here and great to see the outlook ahead. My question, I think, is more on the industry side because on the business plan, you mentioned your expectations to have a Brent at $65 next year and probably moving to $70 in the upcoming years. When we look at these prices, it's not consensual.
It could move lower to 50 or eventually higher to 70 or eventually even higher to that, right? I think it would be great to hear from you, maybe to Miguel, this one. What's your view in the industry? What gives you confidence that Brent will be closer to the 70 one or two years from now and not closer to the 50?
Thank you, Tasso, for your question. I will take this one. We are very contracted and positive on $70 that we have planned from 2027 onwards, mainly because of two or three things. The first one is we believe the supply-demand balance going forward is going to be driven by the undeveloped countries that today are consuming four or five times less energy than the developed country.
We believe, okay, due to the fact that the E&P industry has not invested in exploration during the last 20 years, that balance, it will play a positive balance to sustain a price that is about $70. Geopolitically, we can guess anything, okay? I think we will continue being experienced of being in a volatile world. For me, if you take what we have in positive and negative, I believe it is going to play in favor of having higher oil prices and lower oil prices, and anything can happen in the middle. Saying all that, we are always prepared for the downside case, okay? As I have explained many times before, we have built a business based on having a portfolio of ready-to-drill wells that are basically fast to deploy, but also fast to stop. We proved that during the COVID-19.
We have flexible contracts with our service providers. We drill a well and we drill a well in 13, 14 days. We complete a well in another 12 days. For us, a path for a well is almost a month, two months and a half. It is easy to start and easy to stop. Today, we have a cash flow positive operation. We are not super leveraged. Also, we have a very good margin. When you look at our net back today, we are between $40 and $50. We have room. I said we can go probably down to $60 without changing our plan. If we go to $50, we will have to adjust our plan and go back if it does just happen for a period of time.
Okay, thank you.
You are welcome.
Next question comes from Vicente Falanga from Bradesco. Vicente.
Thank you very much, Miguel and Vista team. Congratulations on this great event. My question is, clearly, you're going to have excess cash to shareholders on your plan. In terms of remuneration, would you rather do buybacks or would you rather pay cash dividends? Also, if you can provide us an update on the Petronas shares. Thank you very much.
Super. I will pass to Pablo this question.
Perfect. Thank you, Vicente. As you see in the presentation, our free cash flow progresses over time, right? Initially, it's around $200 million, and it grows to $500 million, $700 million, $800 million, and more than $1 billion in five years, right? We think it's a bit too early in that cycle to define a fixed dividend policy. I would say next year, the next 12-18 months for sure, share buybacks will be a priority over dividends.
In particular, if our understanding of the stock price being at a discount to what the target prices of essentially all of you is and what we believe is the fair market value of that stock, right? So we'll prioritize that. In terms of Petronas, a few days back, we received a communication from Petronas that they have successfully disposed of all the shares. So there have all been 3.7 million shares that have been placed in the market.
Great. Thank you very much.
Next question comes from Milene from JP Morgan.
Good morning and congrats on the very constructive plan presented today. I wanted to explore a little bit more on the drilling plan. Matías was mentioning that we had unlocked 180 new wells, right? And we have the plan of drilling 80-90 wells per year.
Could you explain a little bit on how the tie-ins will be developed? If you can explain also the Coirón Amargo Norte, that is one region that has not been drilled, what are your expectations towards that? Thank you very much.
Thank you, Milene. I'm going to take that one. It's a good one. Just to understand, our plan in the next three years is to be in focus on the core development hub. The first year, taking into consideration, for example, 2026, we'll be drilling 85 wells. Those 85 wells are coming from our operated assets. That's mostly 60 wells, mainly focused on what we call core development hub. When we call core development hub, it's Bajada del Palo Oeste, Aneste, and also Aguada Federal. That we are going to operate with four rigs.
To add to that sum, we need to add the La Amarga Chica that are 25 wells at the working interest. You add the 60 with the 25 with the 85 wells. That is going somehow what is going to happen in 2026. We have the upside of the pilots. We are going to be piloting Aguada Mora and Coirón Amargo Norte, but that is going to happen in between 2027 and 2028. Specifically related to Coirón Amargo Norte, we have a planned pilot for two wells. I assume that is going to be at the end of 2027. What is interesting, what happened in this block is a 22,000 to 2,000 acres block. It is all the neighborhood in activity that happened at the north in Bajada del Palo Este, also in different kinds of activity shells and Panamerican. They had really good results.
It's encouraging for us to put a pilot early there. Another advantage that the block has is it's pretty easy to link with the infrastructure of Bajada del Palo. We're very confident on that pilot of Coirón Amargo Norte.
Thank you.
Next question from Andres Cardona from Citi. Andres.
Good morning and thanks for taking my question. It has been an amazing journey since 2017 when you did the IPO as an SPAC and now showing these ambitious targets. My question is about the 2030 free cash flow. If you can help us to break down the assumptions behind that number.
Ale, you want to take this one?
Sure. Hi, Andres. Yeah, I mean, when you think about 2030, we were envisioning a production of a little bit over 200,000 barrels per day. That's what you should think of. Remember prices of around $70 Brent.
That's what we were targeting. That should mean that revenues probably are around $5 billion if you actually do the number. If you subtract export taxes, royalties, and selling expenses, lifting costs, and G&A, you're probably seeing an EBITDA of anywhere between $3.3 billion-$3.5 billion, probably around that. If you take out the CAPEX and the income tax, that would probably take around $1.8 billion. That's how you get more or less to the $1.5 billion of free cash flow for 2030.
Next question comes from Bruno from Goldman Sachs. Bruno.
Yes, thank you for the opportunity to ask this question. My question is on the productivity of the wells that you're going to drill in the next few years. It seems that your guidance for production implies a declining productivity per well in the next few years. Can you confirm if that's the case?
If so, why and what's the pace of decline that you expect going forward? Thank you.
Thank you, Bruno. I have the luxury to pass it to Matías today, this question.
Yeah, I take it. That's a good one, Bruno. Of course, we have seen a presentation. We're really proud of our results we have got. We have the best results in productivity of the wells of Vaca Muerta and benchmark to premium basin also that. Having said that, perhaps it's hard to find just one type curve for the inventory that we have. What I can say is in every single well that we're going to put on production since now, you are going to find perhaps IP rate 30 days that's going to be between 1,300 BOEs per day-1,900 BOEs per day.
In terms of total recovery, it should be between 1.2 and 1.8 million BOEs cumulative production in all the years. What's important to mention is as far as we're continuing developing the assets, perhaps we're going to find some maturities and some interferences. As Juan mentioned in the presentation, we're building some technologies and approaches in order to mitigate those interferences. All that is already involved in our model. We're very confident we're going to gain some advantages of upsides for those kinds of technologies. On top of that, we have plenty of inventory, as I mentioned in the presentation. We also see upside in inventory related to new technologies and some in-haze recovery technologies too.
I will add, Bruno, to what Matías said, that because when we get this question, usually people have the mindset of Permian.
I think there is one thing that sets us completely apart from Permian, and it is the way that we develop our blocks. In Permian, you have leases, and you have to put leases together in order to have an operational plan that allows you to have continuity for your rigs. Those leases are not based on reservoir management and not based on what you have in the subsurface. We here have concessions for 35 years, so we can plan the way that we want to develop our fields in the more rational reservoir management way of doing it. I think that is a huge advantage that many people do not realize that we have in terms of regulation compared with the U.S. That affects and goes exactly to your question. Next question comes from Michael Furo from Pickering.
Good morning. Thanks for having us and for taking my question.
That's a good follow-up to the previous comments. Look, Vista's done a great job driving down well costs and improving well-level economics. It seems like you found an optimal frac stage spacing, but one of the items that we've noticed is that lateral lengths have been pretty consistent. From the perspective of U.S. shale, one of the largest value creators we've seen over the last few years is extending lateral lengths to levels that the industry thought was not possible. It seems like whatever operator in the Vaca Muerta that makes this breakthrough will be at a real strategic advantage. My question is, does your five-year plan contemplate extending of lateral lengths? If not, could you maybe speak about what some of the operational geologic limitations are that would prevent you from doing so?
Good question, Michael.
I think the best person to answer this one is Juan.
Thank you, Michael. Okay, so today we're reporting and standardizing in 2,800 meters wells. That is for reporting purposes in order to be able to compare one campaign over the other. Now, we are actually extending the lateral length of the wells. The average for 2025 will be 3,100 meters. We have drilled wells over 3,600 meters. In La Amarga Chica, for instance, we're drilling wells over 4,000 meters. What is the limit? The limit is the technology and how much it takes to clean the well after fracturing it. As long as we can clean it, we will extend it as much as we can.
Now, then, as Miguel said, there are some limitations on the concession because of the shape of the concession and because of some structural limitations or wells that you have already drilled. That limits you from going further and further. Although we will continue to report and to normalize to 2,800 meters, it does not mean that we're drilling just 2,800 meters. We're drilling the longer lateral that we can, depending on the specific area that we are drilling.
Thank you.
Next question comes from George, from Latin Securities. Hi, George.
Thank you for hosting us here today. My question's been touched on through various other questions. You have guided today an impressive production trajectory over the next five years. I was wondering, when you think about potentially accelerating that trajectory, how are you viewing the potential to acquire more midstream capacity if that potential exists?
Pablo, you want to take this one?
Thank you, George. The pipeline capacity is not a limiting factor to our plan, right? If you go through what we have today, we have 111,000 barrels of capacity in Old El Valley, including the Duplicar project that is fully online. We have 33,000 barrels of capacity per day going to Chile, right? That can accommodate, obviously, our growth in 2026 and part of early 2027. We have a 10% stake in Vemos, the new pipeline that is being constructed, is at an advancement rate of around 33%. The pipeline is already 50% constructed, so it is going pretty, pretty well. That would add around 50,000 barrels net to us, which is more than enough to deliver on our 2030 vision of 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent. 85-90% of that is barrels of oil, right?
We do not see a limitation in our plan. There are several flexibilities built into the system. One is Old El Valle can use friction reduction agents, which adds like 10% capacity. OTC to Chile can use that as well. The Vemos pipeline can be expanded from the targeted 550,000 barrels of oil transportation per day to 700,000 with very simple additions, pumping stations, and so on. Let's say if we and other places in the basin get more aggressive and want to grow even further, we think that the system can accommodate it, right? Then there is trucking capacity. Remember, we built like 37,000 barrels of trucking capacity a couple of years ago. It was instrumental in that initial phase to grow and now use all those barrels, fill those barrels in the Duplicar system. Those are available, right?
If it happens that we all grow together much faster than anticipated, there will be a place in the system.
Thank you. Sorry, Claire.
Next question comes from Juan José Muñoz from BTG Pactual.
Hi, hi. Congrats on the presentation, and thank you for taking my question. This is regarding the export tax. And considering the high amount of volumes that you export right now and you plan to increase the share, what are the chances of the export tax to be removed? And if it is the case, I do not know if you have calculated the impact that it will have in your EBITDA. Thanks.
I will take that one. There have been, first of all, I mean, what is our export tax? Our export tax today is 8% at $60 per barrel. And below $45 is zero, functional in the middle, linear in the middle.
This is what we have probably for the last five years, I would say. Before that, we have 12%. There is discussion, there is current discussion of the government reducing export tax, but nothing that we can count on today to put in a plan, okay? Of course, we will welcome anything that makes Vaca Muerta more competitive. It makes a lot of sense for the country to promote Vaca Muerta because, as you see, as many people said here, we have just 40 rigs compared with 450 that you have. Plenty of room to accelerate and to grow. Nothing yet that we can really consider to put in a plan. Next question comes from Ignacio Sabele from Itaú.
Yes, hi everyone. Good morning. My question is on capital allocation.
Given the higher cash generation going forward, how should we think of capital allocation if capital controls at the end narrow the ability to pay dividends? What should change?
Ale, you want to take this one?
Sure. Hi, Ignacio. We've seen probably in the last two years a positive trend in terms of lifting of capital controls, starting at the beginning of last year when we were able to repay 100% of the debt. I think that plus a better macro allowed most of the companies that are public to access the international debt market. We've seen a very positive trend started at that time. In the meantime, there was another change to Vista probably when we acquired La Amarga Chica, which gave us access to the Cree 929, which allows us to lift dollars from the exports that we do.
We've been doing almost $15 million per month during 2025. That's around $180 million for the year. Actually, if you do the math going forward, you'll see that probably in the next three years, based on the CREE 929, there's like a billion dollars linked to potentially lifting 20-40% of the exports that we actually do from La Amarga Chica. That is one way that we've seen very positive reaction from this government, where both on the debt side and honoring the CREE 929 allowed us to have access to at least a billion dollars, let's say, in the next three years if you actually think of what we're going to be producing. That is one way when you match to the $1.5 billion that we're generating if we wanted to have freely available dollars.
That will give us possibilities to either do share buybacks, to put eventually in a longer term a dividend policy, and eventually, of course, deliver. Those are the things we can do with that. Now, the one thing to also take is that we're seeing a very positive trend. Let's see how things evolve. If the macro continues going well, I think we're going to probably not necessarily be in that situation and probably freely decide what we do with the cash flow.
Thanks.
Next question comes from Matías from ADCAP. Matías.
Hi, Miguel. Hi, management team. First of all, thank you for this event. Also thank you for the past three years of growth for shareholders. It's a promising company. The future seems promising as well, and also for over-delivering in the past investor days.
My question goes on the regard of drilling and completion, completion unit cost per well. Can you break down the cost per well? Do you include ground leveling, testing, and others, or it is just the drilling and completion?
Thank you, Matías, for your comment, first of all. I will have Juan to answer that question.
Thank you, Matías. Okay, when we report well cost, we are always talking about drilling and completion. We do that because it is the standard KPI for the industry. If we were to compare against other peers in the industry, other public companies that report the D&C cost, we report exactly the same. Basically, when we say D&C or well cost, we are talking about drilling and completion. Our well cost, the split is probably 60% is completion and 40% is drilling.
Now, if you want to add up all the well construction or well path construction facilities and well tie-in and testing, then you need to add probably 10-15% to that well cost.
Thank you so much.
You're welcome.
Next question from Oriana from Balanz.
Hi, thanks for taking my question and congratulations on the program presented today. I have a broader question based on the macroeconomic backdrop. Just thinking under a more favorable political landscape, could you see a revival of the potential hydrocarbon law conversation going there? What are, in your view, the key initiatives needed for continued promotion of the sector? Thank you.
Thank you, Oriana. I will take this one. First of all, just to put your question in context, I think since we started developing Vaca Muerta in 2012, we have come a long way.
Many of the interventions that we have had from governments have been always positive since I believe Vaca Muerta, everybody realizes, is part of the solution. During the current administration, the Ley de Bases, I think, and we think, introduced a very positive change because for the last two or three years, we have become a country that we are a structural net exporter. Therefore, there was room to free up the exportation of barrels of oil. They have eliminated in the[Foreign language] that was somehow making the exportation much more cumbersome for no reason. I think stabilizing the macroeconomy of the country and having access to capital markets is probably one of the biggest things that this current government is doing and can do for Vaca Muerta.
The other thing that we said as a big subject, and we've been discussing this today here, is to gain competitiveness. We know that we have a difference on CapEx well cost, particularly with the US, of around 40%. Part of that comes from the economy of scale. They have 450 rigs. We have 40 rigs. There are other parts that come from regulation, taxes, and so on. Anything that we can do to become more competitive, it clearly will translate in more production, in more exports, in more profit for the country, and more jobs for our people. I believe there is room there for a win-win situation. There is a lot of discussion going on around that. Again, nothing that we can build today in our plan.
Thank you.
Next question comes from Francisco from Don Capital. Francisco.
Hi. Congratulations on great projections.
Thank you for taking my question. My question will be that assuming the same CapEx that you showed on the presentation previously, at what level of Brent price will you be free cash flow neutral? All right.
Pablo, you want to take it?
Sure. We are planning for three, four years of relatively flat CapEx, $1.5 billion-$1.6 billion per year. Our free cash flow grows every year driven by EBITDA growth, right? Next year, our free cash flow would be neutral if Brent is slightly below $60, call it probably $58, $59. That break-even gets significantly lower in the outer years, right? By 2028, that Brent break-even would probably be around close to $45, call it $46, $47, right? Something in between for 2027, call it around $50, right? I think that is evidence of the competitiveness of our capital program.
Thank you.
Next question from Santiago from El Cronista.
Hi, Miguel and team. Thanks for taking my question and hosting us today. My question is regarding lifting costs. How do you see projections for next years and if there is a technical limit? Thanks.
Super. Santiago, I will pass this one to Matías.
I take that. Thank you, Santiago, for the question that was not included in the presentation. You know that lifting cost for us is somehow the flagship of efficiency. Somehow, I may say we are reaching the point of the technical limit. That technical limit should be around $4 per BOE. The most important thing here is that we have de-risked all the uncertainties. We have deployed full gas lift in our wells. More or less around the 200 wells that we have flowing, 160 wells have gas lift.
We know exactly what is the dosification of the chemicals, the manpower in the field, how to manage with technology, and not going to just supervise each well. You should consider that we are going to have around between $4 per BOE to $4.5 during the next three years.
Thank you, Matías. We had a lot of questions really from the chat, but a lot of them were already covered. I have two here that I would like to read. One comes from Hernan Chianassi. It says, "Can you give more color about a share buyback program to take advantage of any opportunistic and flexible opportunities that the market may provide?" The first thing is that we have already used the share buyback program that we had during 2025. It was $50 million. We already executed that.
To have a new share buyback program, we need to go back to shareholder meeting. We have to present full year results. With those results, we ask for shareholder approval to put a new plan in place. This is what we are going to do in April this year. Next year, we are going to present a new plan for share buyback to be approved during the shareholder meeting. That is what you should expect. The second question is from Daniel Guardiola from BTG Pactual. In terms of growth, are you considering inorganic growth opportunities in your production targets for 2028 and 2030? In case you are not, how do you envision M&A fitting your business model? Can you share with us what kind of opportunities you would be interested to pursue? Probably, Pablo, you want to take that on?
Sure, I will take it. Thank you, Daniel.
100% of the growth in our plan is organic, right? So we've only included wells that have been de-risked and that are in our inventory today. M&A, however, is, I would say, part of our DNA, right? Vista has started to exist on the basis of M&A transactions. We have grown on the basis of M&A. We've closed a very important M&A transaction that gave us a lot more scale earlier this year. Going forward, we don't have the imperative. We don't have the need to do an M&A transaction. However, to the extent a transaction brings in value to Vista, and by value, we mean it's synergetic, it's focused in what we do. We would only be looking at the oil window of Vaca Muerta in Argentina. If something fits that profile, we will take a look at it.
The mandate will be for that transaction to add value, dollars per share to our stock price. We do not need more scale just for the sake of scale. We do not need to do M&A just for the sake of doing it, right? We will be, I would say, extremely selective as we have been until now. That is it.
Thank you very much. First of all, thank you for coming here. We are all looking forward to spend a few more days with you in the field and later here in Buenos Aires. I would like to take the opportunity also to thank our shareholders, to thank our employees and people in Vista that have taken us all the way up here. We are super excited about the new plan. It is a new phase of growth for us.
From tomorrow on, we will focus on delivering on the promise as we always do. Thank you very much and have a good rest of the day.