Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:VOLAR.A)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2022

Apr 28, 2022

Operator 1

Welcome to Volaris's First Quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. All lines are in a listen-only mode. Following the company's presentation, we will open the call for your question and answers. Please note that we are recording this event. This event is also being broadcast live via webcast and may be accessed through the Volaris website. Those following the presentation via the webcast may post their questions on the platform, and they will be either answered by management during this call or by Volaris investor relations team after the conference is finished. To send your questions via the webcast platform, you need to click on the question mark just below the video area in the upper left corner and type your inquiry. At this point, I would like to turn the call over to Renato Salomón, Volaris Senior Director, Corporate Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Renato.

Renato Salomone
Senior Director of Corporate Finance and Investor Relations, Volaris

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining the call. With us is our President and CEO, Enrique Beltranena, our Airline Executive Vice President, Holger Blankenstein, and our Chief Financial Officer, Jaime Pous. They'll be discussing the company's first quarter 2022 results. Afterward, we'll move on to your questions. Please note that this call is for investors and analysts only. Before we begin, please let me remind everyone that this call may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward-looking statements are subject to several factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from expectations, as described in the company's filings with the United States SEC and Mexico CNBV. These statements speak only as of the date that they are made, and Volaris undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement.

As in our earnings press release, all our numbers are in US dollars and compared to the first quarter of 2021, unless otherwise noted. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Volaris President and CEO, Enrique Beltranena.

Enrique Beltranena
President and CEO, Volaris

Thank you very much, Renato, and thank you everyone for joining us today. We're happy to report continued strong traffic and revenue results in the first quarter. In Mexico's domestic market, we continue to see a strong recovery of demand that started a year ago. In other markets, such as the domestic U.S., carriers have recently begun to experience a similar recovery. On slide 3 highlights that the key reasons behind our strong performance and success haven't changed. First, Volaris has demonstrated an ability to adapt to changing demand quickly and has also been able to gradually pass through the impact of the recent rise in fuel prices. Second, Volaris has plenty of market opportunities, both at home and abroad. Volaris's strength in the fare environment continues with our VFR customers, who value our schedule reliability, and our leisure customers attracted to our many point-to-point leisure destinations.

Third, our growth plans remain flexible, and current demand strengths confirms that we can fill in the mid-20s ASM growth guidance for the year without sacrificing profitability. Fourth, our ultra-low cost and strong balance sheet allow us to absorb volatility better than our competitors and position Volaris well for the future. Regarding our first quarter performance, we generated total revenue of $567 million in the period, an increase of 80% versus 2021, and 53% versus 2019. We generated a positive cash flow from operating activities of $196 million. Our EBITDAR increased by 52% to $97 million. Today, I would like to focus on two main topics. Our ability to pass through the increase in fuel costs and the rationale behind Volaris's growth strategy. Let me start with the pass-through of the fuel cost.

Volaris's ability to pass through incremental fuel costs begins with the fact that we continue to have the lowest unit cost of any operator publicly trading in the Americas. We entered the first quarter with excellent entry-level base fares and ancillaries from the fourth quarter, which helped the company's performance. The strong demand was sustained in both quarters, with an 87% load factor in the fourth quarter and 84% in the first quarter. Through the Omicron wave, we demonstrated the superior reliability of our operations once again. During the first quarter of 2022, Omicron negatively impacted demand in late January and early February. At that point, we pushed more for volume and at the same time selectively increased base fares and ancillary prices. Once COVID cases decreased, we gradually pushed fares up without sacrificing volume.

The incremental cost of fuel price and volume during the first quarter was $149 million, or a 157% increase versus the first quarter of last year. Volaris was able to pass through to revenues 95% of the effect during the quarter, sustaining a healthy 84% load factor for the period and closing the quarter with a TRASM level of $0.07. Due to the fare increases implemented throughout our inventory in the first quarter, we built a good foundation through forward bookings to gradually absorb the fuel cost pressure in the upcoming quarters. So far, in the second quarter, we have seen the strong load factor sustained and our forward bookings remain strong, demonstrating that our core VFR and leisure passengers are eager to travel, and our current growth plan is consistent with this demand.

Now speaking about growth, we have identified a recurring investment concern regarding Volaris's growth strategy. Capacity growth in mature markets typically matches GDP growth. This is not true for Volaris's core markets. Volaris operates in an emerging market with low air travel penetration. Over the last 10 years, the company's ASMs compound annual growth rate was 13% versus Mexico's average GDP growth of just 1%. We have managed to grow while generating value for our shareholders and building a market-leading franchise that we believe is extremely difficult to be replicated by existing players or new entrants. Here's why we believe we can sustain the growth trend with profitability. First, Mexico's territorial size and population. The distance between Tijuana and Cancún is roughly the same as New York to Los Angeles, or Paris to Jerusalem.

Volaris's ultra-low fares are designed to stimulate demand in under-penetrated aviation markets, such as México. Much of the financial and revenue strength is concentrated in our three local core markets of Tijuana, Guadalajara, and Cancún. Our network strength is primarily explained by our historical growth in Tijuana and Guadalajara. These two markets have been top performers for us, and we plan to continue to grow there, primarily by adding frequencies to existing destinations. This is not surprising, considering the GDP growth in this northern Mexican region resembles an emerging growth market. We also plan to continue to grow in our southern Mexican market of Cancún. Although GDP growth has been weaker in that southeast region, tourism from outside the region continues to support and grow this unique destination. It is estimated also that around 38 million Mexicans have migrated to the U.S. in the last decades.

Last year, they sent their nationals at home around $52 billion in remittances, equivalent to 4% of Mexico's GDP. The remittance effect into an emerging market does not exist in a developed or mature economy. Our webpage has become a remittance system to transfer money from the U.S. to Mexico for the relatives to fly, and the same effect we are seeing now in Central America. Speaking about Central American countries, have these three similar patterns, and we believe we can successfully replicate in that region what we have done from Mexico to the U.S. in the last 16 years. The second fact are Mexico's population characteristics. It is well known that one of Volaris's target market is VFR middle class. The company was conceived and perfectly fitted with its model to tackle this specific market.

They usually travel with their relatives and are used to transporting themselves by bus from point to point, which creates a higher cost pressure for themselves. An essential component of our domestic growth strategy remains bus routes and the switching from bus to air travel. We compete exclusively with buses in 46% of Volaris's network with no air competition. Having one of the lowest unit cost structures worldwide, we have successfully tackled the bus market and produced a low average base fare of $46 per segment, which is even lower in the domestic market. We have a more appealing value proposition than buses on trips larger than six hours. This is unique to Mexico, and Volaris has no conflict of interest that prevents us from grabbing market share from buses.

Our target segment for our domestic growth is to appeal to the 90 million Mexicans who we have targeted to use buses to travel. This is equivalent to the total population of Germany. This emerging middle-class segment in Mexico is the fastest income growing segment in our core markets. It grew 7% from 2010 to 2020, according to INEGI. We tailor our product by offering low base fares and promoting ancillaries designed to the needs of these passengers. As a result, 43% of our total revenues come from ancillaries, giving us a powerful formula to tackle the bus market profitability. The third fact are the air travel dynamics.

As proof of our success, trips per capita in Mexico doubled to 0.55 from our founding in 2006 to 2019, and this indicator is now back to an uptrend. Volaris accounted for 56% of the domestic aviation growth in that period, primarily with first-time flyers coming from the buses and virtually doubling the size of the domestic market in terms of passengers. Suppose we aspire to be at Colombia's, Chile's, Turkey's, or Malaysia's air trips per capita. In that case, the Mexican domestic market could be 1.3 to 3.6 x bigger than today. We have identified over 325 potential new routes to grow that fit ideally with our low-cost, low-fare business model. However, we will do it this year by adding frequencies to our existing network.

We remain flexible and disciplined, and if we begin to see any sign of weakness, we will quickly rein in that growth. We are also growing internationally in the U.S. border VFR market, with 30% of our capacity. Toward the end of the year, we expect our transborder performance to be enhanced by fully optimizing our codeshare partnership with Frontier Airlines. This is currently restrained by Mexico's FAA category, which we hope will be upgraded by the end of the third quarter. Finally, we are looking ahead to the future and positioning ourselves with international growth avenues. Central and South America, where we are growing from our separate air operator certificates in El Salvador and Costa Rica, with similarities in population characteristics and transportation dynamics. We believe that Volaris's consistent performance demonstrates our resilience and adaptability.

It is essential to highlight that we are in a stronger financial position than before the pandemic, with higher cash levels and lower financial debt. While other airlines are now focusing on recovery and repaying the debt taken during the pandemic, Volaris is focused on executing its growth strategy. Our ambassadors remain a vital part of this strategy, and I want to thank them for staying focused on providing a safe, reliable, and consistent travel experience for our guests. Our workforce has been an essential part of our strong performance. I would now like to turn the call over to our Airline Executive Vice President, Holger Blankenstein, to discuss our operations and provide more details on our performance.

Holger Blankenstein
Executive Vice President Airline Commercial and Operations, Volaris

Thank you, Enrique. Moving on to the next slide, I would like to provide some more color on our quarterly financial results. On the revenue side, we entered the quarter at a higher fare level, having increased fares gradually since December in response to rising fuel prices. Demand remained strong throughout the quarter, despite Omicron's effect in late January and February. The strength in demand enabled us to push through careful fare increases during the quarter. This was the reason behind our strong TRASM performance, which beat expectations. As far as monthly demand trends throughout the quarter, we reported a healthy January traffic performance, with a slight dip in forward bookings offset by healthy demand in closing bookings. In February, we observed a consistent decline in COVID cases with a corresponding rise in bookings.

We can conclude that Omicron had a 3-week impact on sales with a minor effect on the quarter, especially since this is a seasonally low time of travel for us. Every new wave of COVID had less and less impact on our revenues. Our average fare for the quarter was $46 versus 37 a year ago, still low in absolute terms. Our fare increases were implemented selectively and in small amounts, ranging from $1 to 3 per passenger. We are also benefiting from the growth in our international markets, which are also driving up overall fare levels. On the capacity side, ASMs for the March quarter increased 1% from the December 2021 quarter or 50% versus the first quarter of 2021.

Our load factor of 83.5% remained at healthy levels, increasing 5.4 percentage points year-over-year. Our first quarter domestic network, representing 70% of our ASMs, grew by 41% year-over-year. Like last quarter, most of this growth was out of Mexico City on existing routes, with both VFR and leisure markets remaining strong. International capacity grew by 77% year-over-year. Most of this growth was in the Mexico to U.S. market, where we also saw healthy demand. We also grew in Central America, where we are coming off a low base in the first quarter of 2021. We currently have four aircraft in this market.

We attribute our success this quarter to our unique position of taking advantage of the bus switching momentum and being able to fill in the capacity abandoned by weaker competitors, which we now think is complete. We also believe there's pent-up demand for traveling now that the COVID strain appears to be weakening. Overall, TRASM for the first quarter increased by 18% versus 2021 to $0.07. Load factor remains strong at 83.5% with both leisure and VFR markets showing a continued strengthening in the quarter. As a reminder, Volaris has very little business traffic. Ancillary revenues continue to be a large part of our overall revenue mix. These consist mainly of baggage, seat selection, and bundles like the Flexibility Combo.

We also further drove growth in ancillary revenues this year by adding members to our discount programs and expanding the number of co-branded credit card members. 43% of our overall revenues were from ancillaries for the quarter, and we reported $35 per passenger. Finally, total operating revenues per passenger increased 8% to $81. For 2022, our international growth will help continue to drive ancillary revenues, especially in the back half of this year. We remain focused on growing these revenues through a more personalized experience on our website. We had a fleet of 104 aircraft with an average age of 5.6 years at the end of the first quarter. For the same period last year, Volaris had 87 aircraft, a 20% growth. However, EBITDA per aircraft is now higher.

We maintained high aircraft utilization during the quarter with 13.3 hours per day for our productive fleet. As a reminder, Volaris has one of the highest utilizations globally when measured against other airlines with similar aircraft types and airline models. Again, even though ASM growth was strong at 50%, we managed to stimulate demand and maintain a healthy load factor. During the first quarter, Volaris flew close to 500 departures per day, an increase of 55% compared to 2021, serving over 71 different destinations in Mexico, the United States, Costa Rica, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Colombia. Building upon our launch into Colombia last October, we recently opened for sale 3 routes to Lima, Peru from Mexico City, Cancún and San José, Costa Rica for the start of flight service in June 2022.

Looking ahead to the second quarter, the shift of Easter to mid-April has had a positive impact on TRASM. Our domestic bookings appear strong with both VFR and leisure markets solid. Our primary focus for growth remains to increase frequencies to existing destinations. On the international side, 90% of our capacity is from Mexico to the U.S. While our capacity growth remains constrained due to Mexico's Category 2, we benefit from high relative market shares in traditional VFR routes. Visiting friends and relatives account for most of our Mexico to U.S. passengers, and our northbound leisure traffic also remains healthy. Central America is still relatively small, representing 3% of our capacity. We currently have 4 aircraft in the region. We saw 123% year-on-year growth, driven by VFR and leisure traffic in the quarter.

Overall, Central America continues to lag the recovery in the domestic Mexican market by 3-6 months. We are establishing our presence in this region, and we see a significant market opportunity over time. There's currently no other Central American-based low-cost carrier in this region, an area that is an emerging market with approximately 50 million inhabitants. We think we have a substantial opportunity to grow to more than 20 aircraft over the next 5 years. We characterize the Central American market as in its infancy with much promise as it grows up to scale. We expect to start flying directly with the Salvadorian operating certificate to the U.S. in the second quarter. We see plenty of runway for growth. Our growth will be concentrated in the domestic market for the first half of the year, primarily adding new frequencies.

Towards the end of the year, we expect more growth in the US with Category 1 recovered and Central America as that region also recovers. Our plan has flexibility, and we will adjust depending on market conditions. Our three main avenues of network growth remain the domestic Mexican market, the transporter market into the US, and Central America. Volaris' three airline operating certificates provide us with many strategic and flexible options. We're currently budgeting ASM growth in the mid-20% range versus the entire year of 2021, and this % growth will be front-loaded into the first half given the weak comps of the first quarter of last year.

Consolidated ASMs for the second quarter of 2022 is expected to increase around 5% compared to the first quarter of 2022. Implying about 20% ASM growth versus the second quarter of 2021. We believe that this additional capacity will be operated with our traditionally high load factors. For the second half of 2022, our capacity growth will be in the mid-teens. Over the next five years, the main pillars of Volaris investment thesis stand. We will continue to benefit from organic GDP growth, population growth, a large and growing middle class in Mexico, and the continued switch from long-haul bus to air travel. An exciting story that we continue to capitalize upon. Now, I will turn the call over to our Chief Financial Officer, Jaime Pous, to discuss the financial performance for the quarter.

Jaime Pous
CFO, Volaris

Thanks, Holger. Now, I would like to discuss our first quarter 2022 financial results, highlighting our strong financial performance. Total operating revenues for the first quarter were $567 million, a 90% increase compared to 2021, as detailed by Holger. CASM ex-fuel for the first quarter decreased 8% compared to the same period of 2021, closing at $0.044. The company maintained its disciplined ultra-low-cost structure despite inflationary pressures in Mexico, the U.S., and Central America, and higher delivery accruals associated with the renewal of our fleet. We have mitigated these pressures by focusing on controllable cost and higher aircraft utilization. Total CASM closed at $0.074 for the first quarter, a 13% increase compared to the first quarter of 2021, driven by higher fuel costs.

The average economic fuel cost increased 64% to $3.15 per gallon in the first quarter. Confirming the financial benefit of the renewal of our fleet, Volaris's fuel efficiency measure in ASMs per gallon improved by 6.1% from the first quarter of 2019 to the first quarter of 2022, resulting in fuel savings of 4.7 million gallons or $14.7 million. We believe this is an effective hedge against rising fuel prices, and means that Volaris' fares need to move up less than our competitors in this environment. Equally important, increasing fuel efficiency through the renewal of our fleet and the high density seating in our aircraft are critical elements of our 2030 goal of reducing CO2 emissions per RPK by 35% compared with 2015.

For the rest of 2022, the company expects to continue seeing volatility in fuel prices and additional inflationary pressures. Volaris' management will closely follow macroeconomic trends to react swiftly, and we will continue to pursue further cost efficiencies to maintain a healthy cost structure. As discussed in our last conference call, certain amendments to the Mexican tax laws in 2022 include changes to value-added tax. After a careful review of the reform and mitigation actions implemented by the company, we have quantified the annual impact in an approximate amount of $30 million, which is an increase of $0.08 in CASM. In addition, we have judicially challenged the amendment's constitutionality via a legal proceeding. Volaris reported a net loss of $49 million in the first quarter.

The company reported a loss per share of $0.04 and a loss per ADS of $0.42. EBITDAR increased 52% to $97 million, and the EBITDAR margin contracted by 3.2 percentage points to 17%. Net cash flow generated by operating activities in the fourth quarter was $196 million. The cash flow used in investing and financing activities was $6 and 193 million respectively. We believe that the company's best use of cash is to continue to invest in our fleet and network for the future. Furthermore, Volaris delivered cash generation of $9 million for the first quarter, closing with $750 million in cash and cash equivalents, representing 31% of the last full month operating revenue.

Volaris has one of the most robust balance sheets among the Latin American carriers and our global peers. At the end of the first quarter, our net debt to EBITDAR ratio was 2.3 x, compared to 11.2 x in the same period of 2021, and 2.5 times in the fourth quarter of 2021, a record level in the company's history. In the past few months, the company has obtained financing at attractive conditions for the predelivery payments for 18 aircraft to be delivered in 2023 and 2024 in an aggregate amount of $262 million. We incorporated 3 new A320neo aircraft into our fleet during the first quarter. As of March 31, 2021, Volaris' fleet was composed of 104 aircraft with an average age of 5.6 years.

Volaris' fleet had an average of 188 seats per aircraft. 83% of its aircraft are sharklet equipped, and 46% are NEO engine option or NEO models. We expect to end 2022 with approximately 115 aircraft, depending on Airbus delivery schedule compliance, increasing NEOs to 54% of our fleet. Assuming no significant disruption related to COVID-19, regulatory, macroeconomic, and geopolitical events with impact on Volaris' business, and budgeting an exchange rate of 20.5 to 20.8 pesos per dollar, and an economic fuel price of $3.1 to 3.4 per gallon, we update our full-year 2022 guidance as follows: year-to-year, a mid-20s growth in terms of ASMs compared to 2021. Increase revenue by $200 million from our previous guidance to $2.8 to 3 billion.

Introduce an EBITDAR margin guidance in the high 20s%. We expect a full-year CASM ex-fuel to increase between 1% and 3% compared to 2021. Finally, we expect CapEx to be between $140 to 145 million. For the second quarter, we are guiding an EBITDAR margin of low-to-mid 20s%. We are budgeting an exchange rate of 20.1 to 20.2 pesos per dollar, and an economic fuel price of $3.7 to 3.8 per gallon for the quarter. We believe Volaris is one of the best run ultra-low-cost carriers globally with a healthy balance sheet. This allows to continue executing our disciplined growth strategy with the flexibility to absorb macroeconomic volatility brought by geopolitical events. Now I will turn the call over to Enrique for closing remarks.

Enrique Beltranena
President and CEO, Volaris

Thank you very much, Jaime. Finally, we have a resilient and effective ultra-low-cost business model, a strong balance sheet, a healthy leverage, a solid recovery with ample opportunities to increase our presence in our markets, and most importantly, the commitment of an experienced management team to help navigate our airline towards maintaining consistent and sequential levels of profitability. In a volatile market, distinguishing between sign and noise is crucial. Over the past six quarters, Volaris had a cumulative EBITDAR margin of 33%, and we believe we can deliver a similar cumulative EBITDAR margin in the next six quarters. This statement shows the confidence we have in Volaris business model and on our ability to remain one of the most profitable airlines in the world. Thank you very much for listening. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator 1

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. If you have a question, please press star one on your telephone at this time or any time. If at any point your question is answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star two. Questions will be taken in the order they are received. We ask that you, when you post your question, that you pick up your handset to provide optimum sound quality. Participants can also send questions via the webcast platform. You need to click on the question mark just below the video area in the upper left corner and type your question. Please hold while we poll for questions. Our first question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

Duane Pfennigwerth
Senior Managing Director of Equity Research, Evercore ISI

Hi. Thank you. Good morning. First, just maybe an easy one. I noticed you put fuel price now in your monthly traffic, which I think might be helpful for some. You know we hear from investors just a little bit of frustration that some of the analysts on The Street are not sort of timely updating things based on where fuel prices are, which of course, you know, we can see every day. Now you've put it in your traffic as well.

I wonder if you would just comment on where you think fuel prices will settle out here in 2Q or if you have sort of a spot fuel price just to help, you know, everybody that's on the line here.

Operator 1

Pardon the interruption. It appears we have lost connection to our main speaker location. Please stand by while we reconnect. Pardon me, ladies and gentlemen, we have reconnected our speaker line. Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI, please resume your question.

Duane Pfennigwerth
Senior Managing Director of Equity Research, Evercore ISI

Sure. We'll try again. Hi, and good morning. I just wanted to ask you if you had a good estimate for 2Q fuel, or a spot fuel number that you're realizing today. I wanted to commend you for putting fuel in the monthly traffic.

Enrique Beltranena
President and CEO, Volaris

Thank you, Duane. Basically, the guidance that we provided in the economic fuel price between $3.7 to 3.8, but we use with the spot WTI of the forward curve that was at $108.28. The crack that was at $34.75. And the jet at $3.41. The curve is what we use. Nothing complicated. We will continue to publish together with the traffic report as we did in March, the average economic fuel price that we had during the month.

Duane Pfennigwerth
Senior Managing Director of Equity Research, Evercore ISI

Okay. You feel. I know, I know you put that in there for the year, but you feel like that's the right number for 2Q? Like, what would your spot fuel price be right now?

Enrique Beltranena
President and CEO, Volaris

The spot price right now it's. Do you have the number there, Renato? We have the jet fuel at $419. The numbers that I provided to you, Duane, are the numbers for the Q for the complete second Q.

Duane Pfennigwerth
Senior Managing Director of Equity Research, Evercore ISI

Okay. Perfect. Just a broader question for my follow-up, maybe for Enrique, as we just step back and think about how the world has changed in the last few years, you know, supply chain disruptions, sourcing from Asia, global energy supply disruptions. It just feels like there are a lot of ingredients for a closer relationship between the United States and Mexico. There is clearly potential. Of course, this potential can be delayed with political cycles in the U.S. and in Mexico. How do you think about this potential for a closer relationship, and what should U.S. investors be watching for? What signs would we be looking for that this relationship is improving or maybe getting more distant?

Enrique Beltranena
President and CEO, Volaris

Well, Duane, some days I think things are going really well. Some days I think that things are not going in the right direction. I think in general, during the last month, the relationships have been really tense because of the energy reform, which is already solved, I would say, as part of the issue and the possibility of changing the constitutional decree in relation with the energy reform and the voting that happened two weeks ago at Congress. I would say that yes, on one side, because of the new world order, we need better relationships and improved relationships more and more. It's up and down every day.

Duane Pfennigwerth
Senior Managing Director of Equity Research, Evercore ISI

Appreciate that perspective.

Enrique Beltranena
President and CEO, Volaris

Having said that.

Operator 1

Our next question.

Enrique Beltranena
President and CEO, Volaris

I think exports. Having said that, exports and the whole economic trade between the two countries is moving ahead really well. Go ahead. The next question, please.

Operator 1

Thank you. Our next question comes from Helane Becker with Cowen. Please go ahead.

Helane Becker
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Cowen

Thanks very much, operator. Hi, everybody, and thank you for the time this morning. I just have two questions. The first question is on your just to point of clarification. Second half capacity growth up in the mid-teens, is that that's system, right? That's all the operating divisions, El Salvador, Costa Rica, just everything, and not just Mexico.

Enrique Beltranena
President and CEO, Volaris

That's correct, Helane.

Helane Becker
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Cowen

Okay, thank you. My other question is with respect to bus shifting. As you get further and further into, you know, for people knowing Volaris, is there ever been a time where somebody has said they've taken the plane, and then they've said, "No, we're just never gonna do that again?

Enrique Beltranena
President and CEO, Volaris

Well, Helane, our data shows that once we have people switch from buses to air transportation on the longer routes, bus trips beyond six hours, people are very reluctant to go back to the buses. More than 90% of our customers remain loyal customers to us. We've built our network around that market. To remind everybody, we have 46% of our routes that only compete against the buses. We continue to believe that there is a potential to switch more people from the buses to air transportation in the next years.

Helane Becker
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Cowen

Great. That's very helpful. The only other thing I have is any word on when Category 1 will be restored?

Enrique Beltranena
President and CEO, Volaris

Yeah, Helene. What we saw is that Mexico had a new audit 2 to 3 weeks ago. The 28 points, which in reality have 97 different topics organized under 28 observations.

Holger Blankenstein
Executive Vice President Airline Commercial and Operations, Volaris

We're basically closed. The FAA is sending a new IASA audit team during the second week of May to do a full assessment again. We'll see, depending on the results, Mexico will request the return of Category 1 and that process after that audit can take from 2 to 3 months. We hope Mexico will return to Category 1 by, let's say, the end of the year.

Helane Becker
Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst, Cowen

That's great. Thank you very much.

Holger Blankenstein
Executive Vice President Airline Commercial and Operations, Volaris

Thanks, Helane.

Operator 1

Our next question comes from Mike Linenberg with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Mike Linenberg
Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Oh, hey, good morning, everyone. Hey, Holger, back to kind of the long-term plans for your Central American operation. You talked about, you know, over time, 20 airplanes, 5 years out. Does that include any service that you would be flying to South America, or is that a separate segment?

Holger Blankenstein
Executive Vice President Airline Commercial and Operations, Volaris

Michael, we see medium-term potential of 20 aircraft, as you rightly say, and that is for our Salvadoran operating certificate and the Costa Rican operating certificate. Flying to the U.S., Mexico, intra-Central America and South America, so it includes the whole thing.

Mike Linenberg
Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay. I guess as I think about South America, it looks like it's gonna be both your Central American certificates as well as your Mexican certificates. It's sort of a combination of both. That's probably the right way to.

Holger Blankenstein
Executive Vice President Airline Commercial and Operations, Volaris

Absolutely right.

Mike Linenberg
Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay.

Holger Blankenstein
Executive Vice President Airline Commercial and Operations, Volaris

That's right, Michael.

Mike Linenberg
Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay. Just with respect to, you know, corporate travel and, you know, maybe even price sensitive business or, you know, even more granularly, you know, small, medium enterprises, you know, Holger, you came out and just said, "Look, you know, we don't. We carry very little business traffic." I know you've always carried some, but I keep looking at that market share chart, and you're up to, you know, you're north of 40%. You know, you're sizable in the marketplace. There are a lot of city pairs that you serve that nobody else serves. I don't see corporate people taking the bus. Isn't there a real opportunity here for Volaris to snag just a bigger share of corporate, even if it's the most price sensitive corporate?

I'm very curious on kinda your long-term plans on that because seems like it's a real profitable opportunity and maybe you're just not going after.

Holger Blankenstein
Executive Vice President Airline Commercial and Operations, Volaris

Yes, absolutely. I think as the largest player in Mexico, we have to look at all market segments. We have recently fortified our trunk routes out of Mexico City to Monterrey and Guadalajara. As you rightly point out, we are getting some of the price-sensitive business customers, especially in the small and medium-sized enterprise segment. We have also introduced some features of ancillary bundles that are geared towards more the corporate customer, more the business customer. We have a new bundle called V Business that gives the business customers some more optionalities in exchange for an additional fee. We are actively looking at that segment. As we grow in the domestic market, but also to the largest destinations in the U.S., we are bound to make inroads into that segment.

Having said that, we do recognize that business traffic is still below pre-pandemic levels, and that the VFR and leisure segments are much more resilient in the recovery.

Mike Linenberg
Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay. Can you just remind me, like pre-pandemic, was price sensitive business or SMEs, what was that about 10% of your, you know, of your sort of passenger. If you look across your passenger segments or revenue, was it 10? Maybe it was less than 10%.

Holger Blankenstein
Executive Vice President Airline Commercial and Operations, Volaris

Yes, it was about 20% of our traffic pre-pandemic, mostly domestic, where VFR was about 50% and leisure was about 25% to 30%. That was pre-pandemic, and we're seeing slightly higher VFR and leisure participation right now because precisely the business traffic is still behind pre-pandemic levels.

Mike Linenberg
Managing Director and Senior Airline Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay. That's helpful. Okay, great. Thanks, everyone.

Holger Blankenstein
Executive Vice President Airline Commercial and Operations, Volaris

Thank you, Michael.

Operator 1

Our next question comes from Stephen Trent. Please go ahead.

Stephen Trent
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Good morning, everyone, and thanks very much for taking my question. Kind of a quick follow-up on what Helane was asking about the bus, if I may. You know, when I think about the potential for enhanced offer of going from bus to plane, you know, are you aware of any of these interstate bus operators that even have any sort of loyalty program or something that remotely looks like a loyalty program and, you know, and I would guess that they probably don't have stuff like Yavas or co-branded cards. Just sort of wanted to get a little bit of high-level color on the potential difference in the offer. Thank you.

Holger Blankenstein
Executive Vice President Airline Commercial and Operations, Volaris

Yeah, absolutely, Stephen. You're right. We have enhanced our product offering to attract those customers with service elements and products that are not available on the buses. Precisely the package holiday options and our v.club, which gives the most price-sensitive customers some additional discounts. Also, I'd like to point out that the buses are relatively unsophisticated pricers in terms of revenue management, which gives us an advantage in yielding and generating more revenues per passenger.

Stephen Trent
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Okay. Super, Holger. Thank you. Just one really quick follow-up. Just any high level thoughts about, you know, how the ops are going so far in Santa Lucía and, you know, kind of customer reaction and et cetera?

Holger Blankenstein
Executive Vice President Airline Commercial and Operations, Volaris

Loads are at the level of 78% in the three routes that we have. We are observing the market develop. We're observing the ground routes to improve, and we are watching the entire operation very carefully. That's the update that we have. We did launch a request to the AFAC to start flying from Santa Lucía to LAX at the end of the year, and that's where we are. We strongly think that reinforces the VFR traffic of the region around the airports.

Stephen Trent
Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Citi

Okay. Very helpful. Thanks very much for that, Enrique.

Operator 2

Our next question comes from Pablo with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Pablo Monsivais
Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Hi, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. I just have a follow-up to Holger's comment on the pent-up demand. The demand recovery has been impressive, so I am still curious to learn this idea that there is still a pent-up demand driven because of COVID. I thought that leisure was already back to pre-pandemic levels, perhaps VFR as well. If you can provide a little bit more color on that, if there is a low-hanging fruit still that you're planning to improve over the next few quarters. Thank you.

Holger Blankenstein
Executive Vice President Airline Commercial and Operations, Volaris

Yeah, Pablo, let me give you some color on how we're seeing things right now in terms of sales and forward bookings. So you might remember that during the Omicron episode midway through the quarter, we did see a reduction in sales, a three-week episode where we did have a small impact for the quarter. This was obviously a seasonally low time of travel for us anyway. We had a very successful anniversary promotion, which is mid-March, and we saw that demand and pricing strength continues, especially for forward bookings into the second quarter and even into the second half of the year. That strength of the bookings has really continued into April.

We continue to be excited about the summer. I think that really points towards that pent-up demand that you're mentioning, the resiliency of the consumer, especially in our segments, the leisure and the VFR segments. They've been proven very strong, and we're seeing that strength continue carrying us forward. We continue to be quite constructive about the top line going into the second quarter.

Pablo Monsivais
Equity Research Analyst, Barclays

Perfect. Very clear. Thank you very much.

Operator 2

Our next question comes from Alejandro Zamacona with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Alejandro Zamacona
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Thank you. Hi, Enrique, Holger, Simon. Thank you for the call. Just a quick question on your thoughts on how the Mexican market has been accepting the price increases on the base fares, considering that future increases may come amid the higher oil prices and the higher inflation environment. Any color on that might be very useful. Thank you.

Holger Blankenstein
Executive Vice President Airline Commercial and Operations, Volaris

Let me tell you that, as we mentioned during the call, in the first quarter, we demonstrated that we were able to offset 95% of the fuel price and volume increases, and we sustained healthy load factors and travel levels. The customer really did accept our price increases. Now, oil price increases obviously affect the entire transportation and tourism industry. Given our cost structure and network and market position, we believe that we are extremely well-positioned to pass on some of the effects of rising fuel prices to our customers even in the future. Nevertheless, we do need to emphasize that as an ultra-low-cost carrier, our prime focus will always be the focus on volume first.

If you look at our fuel-efficient fleet of A320neos, our fare price increases need to increase proportionately less than our competitors' fares. If you look at the market as a whole, we have observed in the domestic market a lot more rationality in terms of pricing in the post-COVID era from all the remaining competitors. We continue to be positive about being able to partially offset fuel price increases into higher travel.

Alejandro Zamacona
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay, Holger. Thank you. My second question, if I may. Do you have any update on the potential overturning of a mask mandate in Mexico, similar to what happened, we saw in U.S.? Eventually, do you believe that the restriction lift could improve demand or it can even hurt customers' confidence to travel safe?

Enrique Beltranena
President and CEO, Volaris

There's two answers for this. The first one is what's going on in the domestic Mexican market, where Mexican flights, we continue to have a compulsory mask usage policy, because that's what the authorities require. The second one is what we're doing in the northbound and international flights, where we moved from a compulsory usage to a strong recommendation of using the mask.

Alejandro Zamacona
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay. Do you have any update on the potential return of the mask mandate in Mexico?

Enrique Beltranena
President and CEO, Volaris

No indication so far by the health authorities.

Alejandro Zamacona
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Okay. Thank you.

Operator 1

This concludes today's question and answer.

Enrique Beltranena
President and CEO, Volaris

Thank you very much to everybody, and I want to apologize because of the system shortcut that we had. I want to express my sincere gratitude to our family of ambassadors, the board of directors, investors, our bankers, lessors, and the suppliers for the commitment and support that has driven Volaris to this exciting position with such an opportunity. Thank you very much to everybody, and it was great to hear you and participate in this call.

Operator 1

This concludes the Volaris conference call for today. Thank you very much for your participation, and have a nice day.

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