Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Ashwin Bajaj, Group Head of Investor Relations. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Yes, thank you, Sagar, and a very good evening, ladies and gentlemen. It's a pleasure to welcome you to JSW Steel's earnings call for Q4 and financial year 2024. We have with us today the management team, represented by Mr. Jayant Acharya, Joint MD and CEO, Mr. G.S. Rathore, Chief Operating Officer, Mr. Rajeev Pai, CFO, and Mr. Swayam Saurabh, CFO Designate, and who will take over as CFO from June 1, as we have announced today. We will start with opening remarks by Mr. Acharya and then open the floor to questions. So with that, over to you, Mr. Acharya.
Thank you. Good evening, everybody. The macro, just a small perspective on the global macro. 2024 is expected to be slightly better. The print of IMF was revised to 3.2 from 3.1, aided by better PMI and mild expansion, which we have seen in the quarter one, which has been positive. Disinflation, we are seeing across regions, however, probably at a slower pace than what was earlier thought. So the rate cuts could be pushed in some of the countries. The U.S. would look at it probably with a gap, but we may expect lesser rate cuts than what we had initially anticipated. Europe would go ahead with the rate cuts since their inflation is dropping faster.
In China, the property sector continues to be a drag but has been offset by strong growth in manufacturing and investments, which enabled strong quarter three, 5.3% growth in quarter one. We expect targeted stimulus by the Chinese government to continue during the remainder of the year. In India, the growth momentum continues with positive trends across key sectors and a resilient macroeconomic profile. The IMF has upgraded India's FY 2025 GDP growth to 6.8% and its medium-term growth projections till FY 2030 to 6.5%. We expect a further pickup in activity levels post the ongoing general elections. Key sectors such as real estate, manufacturing, automotive, energy transition, continue to show strong trends. If you look at the steel sector, global crude steel production during January to March grew by 0.5% to 469 million tons.
Within this, China fell by 1.9% YoY, while the rest of the world saw a growth of 3.6%. India's crude steel production grew by 9.7% YoY to 37.3 million, and consumption grew 9% to 35.7 million tons. Steel demand overall for the year grew at 13.6%, and we expect a strong steel demand growth to continue on the back of healthy government CapEx, as well as strong demand from manufacturing, real estate, automotive, and the overall consumption. Private CapEx is also likely to pick up, with increasing utilization supported by healthy balance sheets. India's steel imports at 2.61 million grew 30% YoY in quarter four, and at 9.65 million tons for the full year, grew by 37%.
Rising steel imports remain a key risk for the domestic steel industry, especially from China and the ASEAN. Sustainability. At JSW Steel, we are mainstreaming sustainability across the businesses, and generating sustainable value has been one of our strategic priorities. We are committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050. JSW Steel has been recognized as a steel sustainability champion by World Steel Association for the sixth consecutive time, and we are the only steel company globally to have secured the CDP A rating for water security. Under the CDP Climate Change, we have retained leadership rating for the fourth consecutive year. Transition towards renewable is a major thrust for us, and we are pleased to announce further 600 MW of renewable capacity, including 200 MW of wind and 200 MW of solar.
For the first time, we are also adding battery storage of 320 MWh with this capacity at Vijayanagar. This new capacity, along with the earlier announced renewable capacity, will ensure that 26% of Vijayanagar's power requirement at 18 million capacity will be met through renewables. If you look at the strategy direction, which we have been giving you earlier, towards 50 million ton, and we have updated a slide on slide number 18, I would like to draw your attention to that. JSW has been an industry leader for the last 10 years with respect to growth, and we have grown our capacities, production, EBITDA, and benefited from higher economies of scale. We have also added value-added product capabilities and capacities.
You will see from the slide that over the years, we have grown in volume, we have grown in terms of value-added product share, and we have grown in terms of EBITDA, while we keep our EBITDA in a reasonable range. Economies of scale and margin expansions are playing out, and this will enable us to generate higher cash flows and fund our growth mainly through internal accruals. This transformation will be driven by five elements, or pillars, if you so say. It's growth, product enrichment, cost optimization, raw material security, and the decarbonization pathway, which we have earlier been trying to reach with a net zero emission by 2050. We are also maintaining a strong focus on innovation, R&D, and digitalization.
The aim is to continue to transform JSW Steel, make our margins higher and more resilient. Now moving on to quarter four and the FY 2024 operational performance. During quarter four, we reported the highest ever consolidated quarterly steel sales at 6.73 million tons, which was up 3% YoY and 12% quarter-on-quarter. Crude steel production in the quarter grew 3% to 6.79 million YoY. Export sales at 1.3 million was sharply up quarter-on-quarter, driven by restocking demand opportunity in the global markets and constituted 20% of our overall sales volume. Domestic sales at 5.16 million tons fell marginally due to elevated imports and channel destocking pre-elections.
However, we were still able to liquidate inventory by 300,000 tons during the quarter on additional exports and better structured execution of the domestic sales. We had the highest ever sales of value-added and special products in the quarter at 62% share in quarter four, versus 60% in the previous quarter. We also reported the highest ever coated and long product sales, which grew 5% in coated and 11% YoY respectively. The tinplate renewables have also shown very good growth during the quarter. On an annual basis, we reported combined crude steel production of 26.68 million tons and sales of 25 million tons FY 2024, and have achieved 101% of our production guidance and 100% of our sales guidance for the year.
Please note that the combined volumes include JISPL for the full year. JISPL was merged with JSW, effective first August 2023. At the consolidated level, our revenues from operations were INR 46,269 crore, up 10%. EBITDA at INR 6,124 crore, which was down 15% quarter-on-quarter, with an EBITDA margin of 13.2%. Our EBITDA per ton on a consolidated basis stood at INR 9,101, and the profit after tax was INR 1,322 crore. The performance on quarter-on-quarter basis was impacted by lower NSR and higher coking coal cost, which was partly offset by better blend and higher sales volumes. We were able to liquidate 300,000 tons of inventory, which gave us an additional EBITDA.
The overseas operations reported stable performance on quarter-on-quarter basis, with overseas EBITDA falling marginally compared to the previous quarter. The U.S. operations, Ohio and Texas combined, had an EBITDA of $18.5 million in quarter four, which was an improvement from EBITDA of $12 million plus in quarter three. The Italian operations EBITDA at EUR 7.5 million, was primarily lower on volume of production in rail, where the raw material for the rail production got delayed due to the geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East, and we expect that to come into our volume in quarter one. We expect the overseas operations to continue to do well in FY 2025.
Our net debt stands at INR 73,916 crore, to be exact, down INR 5,300 crore on a quarter-on-quarter basis, largely driven by relief in working capital and calibrated CapEx. We have, however, not calibrated any growth CapEx. Our revenue acceptances as on 31st March 2024 were $2.05 billion, and capital acceptances were at $163 million. Importantly, our balance sheet remains healthy. The ratio of net debt to EBITDA at 2.62 versus 2.64 in December. Our net debt to equity at 0.93 improved over the last quarter of December 2023. We expect to fund our growth primarily through our cash flows, and we aim to maintain our leverage ratio below 3.
The board has recommended a final dividend of INR 7.3 per share, subject to shareholders' approval at the AGM. This translates to a payout ratio of 20%, which is at the upper end of our stated dividend policy. We had guided for coking coal cost to increase by $20-$25 in quarter four, and we have seen an increase of $22 with the CFR cost of coking coal at $274 CFR. Given recent fall in coking coal prices, we expect the coking coal prices to go down in quarter one by $22-$27 per ton. In case of iron ore, despite elevated prices, we have managed to keep iron ore cost under control during the last quarter on the back of optimized blends and consumption, the specific consumption.
Improving raw material security has been one of our strategic objectives, and in case of iron ore, we have secured 24 mines through various auctions and resources of 1.6 billion tons over all these mines. Out of these, 13 mines are operational and remaining are in the various stages of commissioning. In the near to medium term, we are increasing our iron ore mining capacity in Karnataka from 7 to 15.5 million, with increase of EC limits by 4 million tons in existing mines, and gradual commissioning of 3 new mines, which will further add 4.5 million. The Goa mines will add another 1-2 million once they are commissioned. We will continue to participate and bid rationally at our upcoming iron ore auctions, especially in Karnataka, with a focus on mines closer to our plants.
In case of coking coal, we are in the process of commissioning three coking coal mines, which should give us 2 million tons of clean coking coal. We are also happy to announce the acquisition of the coking coal mine, the MDR coking coal mine in Mozambique, in continuation of our strategy to improve our raw material security and coking coal as well. The asset has reserves and resources in excess of 800 million tons, including more than 270 million tons of prime coking coal. This transaction is subjected to regulatory approvals, and we expect the mining operations to continue after the necessary approvals and condition precedents are satisfied, and we take over the development of the mines. Domestic steel demand continues to be strong.
In the last year, we grew by 13.36%, as we discussed. In the last quarter, we grew by 9%. Even if you were to take a growth between 8%-10%, which we have been saying is a conservative kind of a growth trajectory for India for this decade, we would be adding incremental capacity or demand of 12 million tons per year. We have seen an increase in global steel prices rising by around $20 in China, and some of that has been reflected in April and May in India as well. Domestic prices have bottomed out, and therefore we see a better pricing environment, and that should support margins. However, the prices, even after the increase, is probably where we were six months back.
JSW One platform is doing quite well, has scaled up significantly since the beginning and has more than 50,000 registered customers. The annualized gross GMV is INR 9,400 crore on March 2024 exit run rate and continues to grow rapidly. JSW One platform had raised $25 million from Mitsui, Japan, in March 2023, you will recall. And JSW Steel holds major shareholding in JSW One. The CapEx and expansion program continues. At JVML, we have commissioned the hot strip mill 5 million ton brownfield expansion. The commercial production has commenced. The integrated production will be completed in the next two months. We have already completed the Phase II expansions in BPSL, and we expect ramp-up of both these capacities during the course of this year.
At BPSL, the Phase II expansion is largely completed here. We may be able to do the ramp-up earlier, maybe by October of 2024. At JSW Steel Coated Products, the color-coated line in Jammu and Kashmir is expected to start commissioning activities in quarter two. The 30 million-ton slurry pipeline in Odisha is also progressing well, with commissioning expected in FY 2027. The company's consolidated CapEx spend during FY 2024, quarter four was INR 3,500 crore, and during FY 2024, it was INR 16,752 crore. We expect consolidated CapEx in FY 2025 to be around INR 20,000 crore. With the new facilities at Vijayanagar and BPSL, which will be ramped up during FY 2024, we expect higher volumes in FY 2025.
We will also be taking a shutdown of our BF3 furnace in Vijayanagar for capacity enhancement. And consequently, our consolidated production and sales for FY 2025 will grow. Our guidance for FY 2025 stands at 28.4 million tons for production and 27 million tons for sales, respectively. We will get the full benefit of the expansion at Vijayanagar and BPSL in FY 2026. We expect improvement in EBITDA per ton going into FY 2025 versus quarter four. Given the raw material, low raw material costs which we are seeing, we expect the quarter one coking coal cost to go down by $22-$27 as we discussed. Better efficiencies and some of the cost-saving projects which we have done will aid to reduce the cost.
We see more stable prices, which will support margins going into the quarter one and the rest of the year. I would also just like to add that our normative EBITDA numbers for nine months of FY 2024 have been in the range of 12 to 12.5. We expect to be returning to our normative EBITDA numbers during the FY 2025 with various improvement measures, falling coking coal prices, stable steel prices, which we see. To conclude, India remains a bright spot amongst major global economies. However, we are watchful of rising geopolitical tensions. We remain positive on the overall India growth story, and we expect a strong steel demand to sustain with continued thrust on infrastructure development, pickup in public as well as private CapEx, and continued momentum across sectors.
Additionally, the rural economy has picked up, and with better monsoons, we will see a better recovery in the rural economy as well. Thank you, and we look forward to your questions.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone phone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Sumangal Nevatia from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good evening, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. My first question is on the Mozambique acquisition. Is it possible to share what sort of volumes, cost structure, and investment are we looking at, and the time period as to when the commencement of the mine can start commercial production?
So MDR is a pre-development state mine. It's one of the largest mining assets for prime hard coking coal available globally. We have been able to secure this. This has got a JORC reserve of more than 800 million tonnes. We have been able to secure 92.19% of this at $74 million outflow. The enterprise value was at $80 million, plus closing adjustments. Subject to normal approvals and conditions precedent, we expect to close this mine in the next half of this year, so it could go into H2, hopefully, and we should be able to start development of the mine in FY 25. This is prime hard coking coal.
You are aware we have been looking for such assets, in the past, internationally as well as domestically. This is not only going to provide us some cushioning with respect to the highly volatile PLV index, it also is logistically closer to India and therefore will give us an optimized cost.
Sir, is it possible to give some sort of, some, quantify some volumes or cost structure which we can commercially produce from these mines?
As we said, you know, this has 270 million tons plus of prime hard coking coal. So therefore, the ability to produce should not be constrained. We will look at the evacuation from Beira port to start with, and we will start scaling up the evacuation capacity as we go along and as we continue to expand our own operations. But it will be a little early to comment exactly with respect to how many years. As I said, it's a pre-development mine. Explorations have been done, resources have been identified. We will close this, and once we go a little deeper, we'll be able to give you some more flavor on cost and timing.
Understood. That's very clear. My second question is on the slide 18, where we've mentioned how we've increased our share of, value-added over time. Is it possible to share, in terms of total India consolidation entity, what sort of, capacity we have in value-added? And, what sort of contribution, we think is attributable incrementally, if, if we do more value-added in terms of margin? And then on September 2027, at the 42 million tonne capacity, what are we looking at in terms of value-added mix?
So, you know, this Slide 18 basically gives you a broad storyline of where we are with respect to our growth and value-added special products in our journey so far. Our current capacities of downstream operations, when I say downstream, is from hot rolled, cold rolling, galvanizing, Galvalume, color coated, et cetera, is almost 12.5 million tons. If you were to add our downstream operation for our plate mill and the LRPC operations of wire, we will be close to 13.5-14 million tons of downstream capacity. Our focus is to see that this downstream capacity is maximized with respect to volumes. We see less, lesser volatility in this segment.
They are more sticky in nature and typically give you an incremental EBITDA in the range of INR 4,000 per tonne. Depending on the market situation, that does vary. At times it can improve, at times it can be marginally lower. But as we are growing our capacities, branding more in the downstream segment, are able to approach wind through our plate mill, these are all far more non-volatile areas of operation, and therefore we see more sticky EBITDA coming through VASP operations as we go along.
Sir, FY 2027, at 42 million tonnes, what, what's our vision there in terms of expansion, pipeline, et cetera, for downstream?
So as we grow our capacities of hot rolled coil, you already have our numbers on hot rolled coils. We have been keeping a guiding principle that we would like to be at least having 50% thumb rule downstream operation of hot rolled coils. We continue to be there or better. And as we grow our capacities in our hot strip area, hot strip mill area, we will continue to add facilities in both our downstream facilities at Vijayanagar, coated or close to Dolvi. Having said that, I would also like to make one point that you would have seen in the press release that we have got the approval for the Phase III expansion at Dolvi to 15 million tons for integrated operations.
This line is again a part of our VASP process, because it's a 5 million ton wide mill, with 2,600 mm wide, up to 32 mm product, which can give you a combination of sheet and plate. We will be able to do plate in this mill at much lower cost, versus a normal conventional plate mill, and therefore, this will be additionally able to contribute to our accretive value story. So this is also going to be a part of our special product strategy going forward.
Understood. One just last quick question, if I may?
Sorry, Mr. Nevatia, I'm going to return this.
Okay. Sure. Thank you so much.
Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all the participants in the conference, please restrict your questions to two per participant. If you have a follow-up question, you may rejoin the queue. The next question is from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. I'll just pick up from Sumangal's question. So first is on the coal mine: Is this the same coal mine which Anglo American acquired in 2012 for 59% stake for $550 million, and the consideration, what I heard, was around $74 million? Is this the same mine?
No, this is not the same mine. This is a mine which is in that area where Vale, Rio Tinto had their mines, which is currently now with Vulcan and ICVL, International Coal Ventures, sorry, ICVL.
Okay.
They are operating in that region. But, this mine is different. It's got a very rich hard coking coal based on the geography of that area, which we have seen. As I said, 800 million tons and above of resources, reserves, and a very good quality hard coking coal. So therefore, we, we're able to close this transaction with an enterprise value of $80 million for plus closing adjustments for a 100% stake. But we have now acquired 92.19% with an outflow of $74 million.
That's helpful. So I just checked on the geography, there are two mines. One is Zambeze and the other one, what you indicated, was Benga. Looking at the past history, they have not actually done very well on the production part. So what gives us confidence, basically, on this particular asset? And if you could give some timelines on the offtake, any guidance on the numbers, be it cost, whatever that will be useful for?
So if I look at the current operations, which are happening in that area of the adjoining mines, I think, both together would be probably in the range of 11-12 million tons of mining per year. They are evacuating through two ports, that is Beira and Nacala. We will be closer to the Beira port. We will first try out first evacuation through the Beira port and then look at further expanding the port operations to increase the capacities, otherwise, do midstream loading.
From an operational perspective, seeing what others are already doing now, we do not see a constraint to ramp this up in terms of capacities to where we would like it to be, from an integration perspective with our operations in India, and maybe potentially for the market as well.
Sir, there is the EC of 5 million tons. Would that be a fair number to assume, say, two years out, three years out?
Sorry, could you repeat that, Ritesh?
Based on the last plan what I saw, there was a EC limit of 5 million tons for the asset that we have looked at. Is that a fair number, outer limit, that one should look at, or is it something beyond this?
No, I don't think we have a yearly kind of a number which can be increased. We don't see any constraints on that, but we can check further and update you. Give me just one second, I will... No, the mine life is already there for 15 years. It can level by another 25 years. There is that way, no problem. Resources are actually higher. Reserves is what I told you. Yeah, so we should be able to ramp this up. We don't see a constraint on EC.
Sure. That's helpful. And the second question, you emphasized on value-added products. I think on slide number 18, you have given a number of 61% as well. Is it possible to give a broad breakup on the EBITDA for upstream and specifically on the value-added part?
As of now, maybe it will be a little difficult to do that. But as I indicated, the value-added VSP portion has been giving an incremental EBITDA of, in the range of INR 4,000 a ton. We continue to add capacities in downstream, as well as in the Phase III of expansions in Dolvi, which we are now taking up. It will be a plate mill kind of a product with a mill cost, rather a plate mill cost, and that will give us the ability to market higher thickness, wider plates from this capacity in the market in West. So that way, I think our focus will continue.
Whether we will be able to give you, down the line some more flavor on how we are structuring our downstream, overall, business profitability, we'll, we'll have a look at it and then, maybe come back to you over the, over the year as we go along.
Thank you, sir. Thank you so much for the answers at the end of the day. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ashish Jain from Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Good evening. So my first question is-
Mr. Jain, we are not able to hear you. You're very soft. Can you please speak a bit louder?
Yeah. I didn't know it was not audible. Am I okay now?
Much better, sir.
Yeah. Yeah, I think maybe you're, you're okay.
My first-
Yes.
You know, on the EBITDA ton output, you know, that is-
I can't hear you.
Mr. Jain, please use a handset in case if you're using the speaker phone or anything, because you are not audible at all.
Hello, am I audible now?
Sir, you're sounding very soft.
Okay. I'll come back in the queue.
Thank you so much, sir.
Yeah.
The next question is from the line of Satyadeep Jain from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you. So just a follow-up, to all the questions around Mozambique. Just wanted to check, I know the other plays are operating, but overall on the infrastructure, mine development, as we stand here, what kind of CapEx could you possibly imagine here, in the next few years? I'm asking this question because all the overseas ventures by Indian companies, mining or otherwise, have not really turned out, in against the expectations, due to many companies ultimately end up taking impairments and losses. So in that context, what gives you the confidence, looking at the deposit, and what kind of CapEx do you look at for mine development, infra, to get this up and running? That's the first question.
So, you know, while mining is an area which requires naturally more effort and more diligence, but this particular mine, why we are looking at it and why we have taken it is because it is prime hard coking coal, which is a PLV coal, which has been the most volatile, has impacted our costs. You will recall that it went up to $600 and has been hovering in the $300-$350 for better part of the last year. And we have had various volatility in our operations of profitability because of that. The other indexes have not been so volatile, so we wanted to have an access to PLV coal, which would integrate with our operations and thereby provide the cushion to arrest this volatility. That's the main reason.
The second advantage of this particular mine is that it's a large mine, logistically close to India, Mozambique, so therefore, we will be able to get it to India with a faster turnaround, lesser logistics cost versus U.S., Canada, and, maybe even Australia. So that's why it is, t hat's the second positive. From, you know, cost perspective, it will be too early to say. It's a new mine, it's a pre-development mine. We are going to develop this after the approvals are fully in place. So we'll have to wait for a little bit more. After we get some flavor, we'll be able to tell you, as to how much we'll be able to do per year and how much would be the cost structure, et cetera.
But, the way we see it now in our due diligence initially, so because the operating mines around us are reasonably doing well, we do not see any concern to achieve volumes from this mine.
Okay. Secondly, on the growth path that you laid out, you have Dolvi is there. Beyond Dolvi, there is 8 million ton from 2027 to 2031. That seems relatively conservative, acquiring only 8 million ton from 2027 to 2031. Could there be an upside? And when you look at that 8 million ton, is it—what kind of capital cost can we look at? Will it only be similar to Dolvi, or is there a greenfield component in that?
No, from 43.5 to 51.5, there is no greenfield component. It will be an option between Vijayanagar. It will be an option between our Salav greenfield, no, Salav green steel discussion, which we have been having, low carbon emitting steel, which we'll do in two phases, a 4 million facility, and BPSL brownfield. So these are all brownfield, and that will take us to 8 million and beyond. As you said rightly, the scope is more. We can do 5 million in Vijayanagar, we can do 5 million in BPSL, we can do 4 million. So technically, it's allowed, so technically we can do more in the brownfield expansions. But we will look at prioritizing basically two of them, and that's how we are seeing 8 million.
But yes, there will be a CapEx for the third facility beyond this, which will be started before FY 2031, which will start giving you probably volumes from year after FY 2031, a year or year and a half after. So that is what we are evaluating, whether we, we would be looking at BPSL in Odisha or the new site at Odisha, which is the Jagatsinghpur site.
Okay. Second stage and one quick question on the power capacity you're adding 600 MW and 320 MWh battery. What is the procurement cost for that power, and how does it stack up against the PPA you have with JSW Energy for coal and other sources?
You see, our strategy for renewable power, we have been highlighting that our effort will be to go towards a decarbonization pathway which we have undertaken for ourselves. We want to replace thermal coal with renewable energy. We had already announced 1,000 MW of projects for renewable energy, which is already under execution in Vijayanagar and mainly in Vijayanagar, some in Dolvi, a little bit in Salem. Now we are adding 600 MW to this, so our total renewable capacity will be 1,600 MW across three locations, but mostly in Vijayanagar. Now, with this, Vijayanagar will be 26% on renewable energy from at 18 million ton level, which is a good kind of direction to achieve.
From a cost perspective, it will be difficult for me to share exactly what cost, but I would only like to say that it is more cost effective than our current power. Also providing greener power with a fixed price, kind of a price contract, over the years.
Okay. Thank you so much.
Thank you. A reminder to all the participants, if you wish to ask questions, please press star and one now. The next question is from the line of Noel Vaz from Union Asset Management. Please go ahead.
Hello, can I be heard?
Yes, you can be.
Yes. I just had one query. So now that we are ramping up capacities, how does the ramp up look on a quarter on quarter basis, say, from, say, from 1 Q onwards? What kind of, as in, how will the growth basically be in, say, one half, first half of this two, second half, first quarter versus second quarter? Yeah.
So as we are ramping up our capacities, you will notice in the press release we have mentioned that the integrated steel capacity at Vijayanagar will be completed in the next two months or so. Then it will start the ramp up. The hot strip mill is already commissioned. BPSL is already completed, so that production will slowly increase. But difficult to give a quarter and quarter flavor, but I would say that H2 will see ramp up of both the locations. BPSL a little earlier and JVML, which is starting later, therefore a little after.
The BF3 at Vijayanagar, which we are looking at debottlenecking and increasing capacity, that shutdown we would be taking in H2 of this year, and that would add additional capacity to our overall capacity. I think it's about 1.5 million tons or so we'll add in that debottlenecking, in addition to JVML and BPSL. So total about 8-8.5 million tons will be the total addition during this financial year by the year end. Part of that capacity will be seen in production this year, and the full impact you will see in the next year.
Okay, thank you. Also, just one other question, which is that I just wanted to just confirm. So I think you had mentioned that the journey till about 50 million tons is mostly brownfield in nature and possibly a greenfield component. Just to understand that.
Up to 51 million tons is brownfield, what we have indicated to you now. 51.5 million includes 1.5 million of U.S. and therefore 50 million in India. That is all based on brownfield. What I mentioned is that in the interim between 2027-2031, the question was whether we'll do anything more. We may look at adding another CapEx program, everything else going well, between one brownfield location which will remain, and our Odisha new greenfield location. That decision we will take as we go along. That will add additional capacity beyond 51.5.
Thanks. Thank you. And, just one last clarification. The 1 GW of RE, which is currently in JSW Steel and 600 MW, which I think is under execution, how... It is, these are captive units?
These are Group Captive. So we, we would have, as per the Group Captive regulations in India, we would have 26% stake in that asset.
Okay. Thank you. That's all from me. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amit Dixit from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi, good evening, everyone, and thanks for taking my question, sir. A couple of questions. The first one is essentially on your growth plans. Now, earlier we had indicated it will reach 50 million tons by FY 2030. Now it seems it is delayed by one year. Just wanted to understand, you know, what prompted this particular delay? And most of our capacity, if you look at it, I thought you would also like to venture into longs, but even Dolvi 3 is primarily focused on flat. Except BPSL expansion that you are looking at, we are mainly focusing on flat. So just wanted to get in, I mean, in the 50 million ton that you're talking about, approximate split between flat, and when do we see long capacity being added, if any?
Yeah. So, your question regarding the timing, we had said 2031 is what we expect it's the financial year 2031, so right? So it is up to March of 2031. That is just for the sake of a financial year we are mentioning. So nine months of that still is in 2030-year calendar. So timing-wise, we have done no change at all. On the flats versus long, we are looking at a possible enhancement in our long product mix, which we are studying right now. That will also be added in one of our brownfield locations. There is an opportunity to do that, and that's something which is on the drawing board right now, and we will come back to you with some more detail once we finalize that.
BPSL, we have anyway indicated that we could do longs, but that's, that's already that you already know. That's one option in BPSL, which we already have.
The second question is on realization. Now, you had highlighted about coking coal costs going down by $22-$27 in Q1. We have seen some price hikes being taken by various players in May. So just wanted to get an idea on how much price hike we have taken in May, and how much we is expected in June, and what could be on a blended basis, you know, the overall prices, price difference between Q4 and Q1?
So longs and flats increased at different speeds. Long products went up faster because the secondary sector in longs increased the prices on the back of higher iron ore, as well as higher thermal coal price, which went up for them. The long product price, especially bars, was already low, so that price went up more. In the flats, internationally, the prices went up by almost $20 per ton in China, as we saw during this period. In India, I think we have reflected a similar number during April and May combined. So that is where we are. In long products, it's slightly higher in both GMP and wire rod.
So if I compare on an average, you know, Q1 would still be slightly lower compared to Q4, or it will be at par?
Yeah, I know that, that's a question which you probably are looking at. So I would feel that it, it is likely to be... It will be at par or a little better, because the coking coal prices are going down, as we mentioned, $22-$27. We see a softer coking coal environment. As we speak today, it's $235 or so, FOB Australia, FOB Australia. And, that would, you know, give benefit in quarter one, and if this price continues for a month or two more, you will see the benefit flowing into quarter two as well. So in H1, I would say that, overall, you will see a cost benefit. You are seeing already stable prices.
Keep in mind that domestic prices have corrected in quarter four, and even after the correction, now we are probably where we were six months back. So, from a domestic price environment, I, I see it is totally bottomed out, and therefore, prices would remain stable with maybe, range-bound, as we go ahead. So therefore, on a, a quarter-to-quarter perspective, I would say we are likely to be similar or a little better.
Great, sir. Thank you so much, and all the best.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Raashi Chopra from Citigroup. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Just, continuing with the last question: So if pricing is likely to be range-bound, and you have a $22-$27 benefit on the coking coal price, essentially from an EBITDA per ton perspective, we kind of factor in the coking coal improvement and any efficiency gains that you may be seeing, right?
Yes, Raashi, that's, that's right. Coking coal, some efficiencies, which, we see, yes, those will get built into cost reduction in quarter one, and some part of that will flow into quarter two. As I said, if the coking coal continues, that benefits quarter two as well.
Sure. Thank you. On the iron ore side, so the, Just to break it down, you'll have about 15 million tons of captive ore in Karnataka, about 25 in Odisha, and about 1-2 in Goa. Is that right?
Yeah, that is, 15.5 million from the existing mines, including the new three mines, which are to be operationalized in Karnataka. That's correct. And, Goa mines, 1-2 million tons. Correct.
25 Odisha?
Yeah. Odisha should be in the vicinity of 25. We can boost slightly higher if that is so required. So from a CC perspective, we don't have a problem. But yeah, approximately you can take 25 million.
Got it. Okay, thank you very much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pallav Agarwal from Antique Stock B roking. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good evening, sir. Sir, just had a question on, you know, on the iron ore price hike that NMDC took in Q4. So, it doesn't seem to be reflecting in, you know, either in the raw material cost or in the mining premium and royalty. So, was that is this due to the change in the mix of sourcing of iron ore in Q4?
Yes, you're right. The prices of iron ore, we were able to contain through a better mix both from a geographic mix perspective, a grade perspective, and also reduce the specific consumption. So with that, you know, we were able to control the price of iron ore going into the cost.
So it's the same going ahead?
Yes, this should be. We don't see a challenge in that.
Sure, sir. The other question was, you know, this quarter subsidiaries seem to have done, pretty well. You know, so if I just, you know, look at the difference between the consolidated and stand-alone EBITDA, it's a pretty significant number, and, EPC-BPSL and the foreign subsidiaries that you've coated, you know, add up to about half of it. So which are the other subsidiaries, like maybe Amba River or, you know, which of these subsidiaries have contributed to the EBITDA this quarter?
So the major Indian subsidiaries which have contributed, you know, BPSL, Coated, and you have Amba River, as you said rightly, and the balance, two are small, which is JIGPL and Mivan. So that is the Indian subsidiaries which have contributed to the overall EBITDA. Overseas, as you've seen and as we mentioned, also has done quite well. On a yearly factor, just to give you, because you will get an idea of the improvement which has happened, the U.S. operations overall between Ohio and Texas combined, generated $75 million of EBITDA in FY 2024 versus $27 million in FY 2023. And Italy generated EUR 52 million versus EUR 26 million in FY 2023.
Going forward, we see stability in operations both at Ohio from a steel production perspective, Baytown is doing better because of the demand of plates and wind, et cetera. And now with the investments at Ohio for special grades, along with vacuum degassing, soft reduction, of the casters, we'll be able to provide those grades, which will be incrementally getting better spreads. So U.S. operation, we feel will do, better. And, Italy has, you know, bilateral orders, from, the Italian rail as well as from, some markets, around in export. And we expect the Italian, operations to also do well. So overseas, I think, yeah, you have seen a substantial improvement, and I think this kind of range, you will see in FY 25 as well.
Sure, sir. Yeah. Yeah. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Siddharth Gadekar from Equirus. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Just wanted to know what was our captive iron ore production in FY 2024, and how should we see that shaping up in FY 2025 and 2026?
You are asking about the captive iron ore production?
Yeah.
So I think we just don't have the number offhand. But just to give you a feel, Investor Relations will get back to you. But in FY 25, we will probably be using close to 50% from our captive mines. Is that correct?
Okay, sir. Got it. Thanks.
Just, just one second. It's about... Yeah, it's about 35%. We will be mining, probably a little higher, but some of that may also go to outside external market. So 35% will flow into the captive.
Okay. Got it. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amit Murarka from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi, thanks for the opportunity. So, on the expansion front, Vijayanagar and BPSL, so, like, just wanted to understand, it seems like the ramp-up guidance seems to have been delayed to Q3, but our earlier understanding was that it will come in by March and then probably ramp up in Q1, Q2. So is it, is it because of the mechanical completion being delayed a bit, or it's because of the market situation that the ramp-up guidance is going to Q3 now?
No, there is... So let's look at both the assets separately. BPSL Phase II expansion, commissioning is done, it's completed. There is only one oxygen plant which is, pending, which is, will be completed in June. With that, BPSL is fully done. So it will enable, volume as well as, some cost saving because with the oxygen, we'll get some better, throughput of PCI and reduced cost, et cetera. So BPSL ramp-up will happen faster. However, there is some shutdowns in BPSL, annual shutdowns, which, are planned for some installations which was already, pre-ordered. So that, may moderate some part of it, but the new capacities will start running, my sense is from October onwards.
So in H2, I mean, October onwards, when I say it will start anyway running, it's anyway operational, but October onwards, you will see close to ramp-up of the facilities in BPSL. So blast furnace, which is the, you know, major area, will pick up to its full capacity by October. The JVML one, we have done the HSM part, as you must have read. We are doing the integrated operation now in the next two months, so that would basically take a little bit more time to ramp up.
And, you know, it's a much bigger furnace, and that is why we are just being a little bit more cautious on that, and we are saying that it may, you know, it may ramp up by probably quarter three end, and you will see full capacity utilization of that particular asset by quarter four. That's the broad-
Oh, got it. Also, like, for Dolvi III, would you have the land acquired? Because I thought that land was going to be an issue going beyond 10 million tons. How do you think that you've sorted that out?
So we've been able to sort that out. Some of the lines are joining. We have been able to acquire and still in the process of acquiring. So we have enough land to complete this Phase III. It's been done in that with that plan only.
Okay.
So, additional land—your question, additional land? Yes. Additional land was required, which, partly procured, partly under procurement, so we'll be able to do that.
Oh, thanks a lot.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ashish Jain from Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Good evening. I hope I'm audible now.
Yes, you are. Much better.
So, my first question, you know, pertains to pricing and your earlier comment on, you know, normative EBITDA closer to INR 12,000. So, you know, like last 12 months or so, we have seen Indian steel prices have by and large been at some premium to parity versus being at a discount in the preceding decade or so. So what's driving that? You know, how should we think about that number? And, secondly, your comment on, you know, normative EBITDA, if I, you know, think about it in context of the volumes, we can theoretically do INR 25,000 crore-INR 30,000 crore of EBITDA. Should we think that from a leverage point of view, we have peaked out if we stick to the current CapEx guidance that we have given for the next three years?
The second part of the question, I just request Rajeev to respond. I'll come back to you on the price part.
Yeah. So in terms of our capital expenditure, which we indicated about INR 20,000 crore, which we will be spending in FY 2025, that should be possible based on our internal accruals with refinancing of the repayment which are due, so our debt would remain flattish. So we, to answer your question, yes, I think in terms of debt, we have peaked out. There could be, in a quarter or two, there could be some investment in working capital, but that should also result into release in subsequent quarters.
So from a, the way, you know, you should also look at CapEx is that, while we are growing, we are keeping a very close eye on our ratios, and our ratios have improved. We are at 2.62 as we exit the year, which was 3.2 when we exited FY 2023. So in spite of adding so much of CapEx, our net debt to EBITDA and net debt to equity both have improved, and we would like to keep this range bound, and maybe improve upon as we go along. If the cash flows improve, there is a potential to reduce debt, we will do that without sacrificing the growth. But at the same time, I don't think we will sacrifice on the ratios.
As far as the price is concerned, I think difficult to give a guidance on how the price will move. But I would just like to say that, in India, what you should see, price is an outcome of supply and demand. So, today, the way Indian steel has grown over the last two years at 13, 13.5, 14% in terms of demand growth, that consumption increase, which has happened in the country, is basically pulling this steel. So while price is one factor, but the movement of goods is happening, and that is something which is, which is very, very encouraging. And we see that people are now also looking at a little bit more of trying to optimize their cost with respect to long lead time procurement.
So maybe people who are wanting to play the market, they try to import as well, but otherwise, long lead imports for an OEM or a manufacturer is something which doesn't really pay off. So those benefits should accrue to us over time. But having said that, China imports is a concern, and we will have to continue to watch that in this year as well.
Sir, if I can just have a bit follow-up. Like, of the 9 odd million ton that India imported this year, is there a number that what amount of import is, you know, sticky in nature, not dependent on pricing? Because I guess some of this is, you know, global contracts by OE- by, you know, global MNCs and also CRGO kind of steel, which is, which will always come into India, at least at this point of time. So is there a number which is sticky and it, not dependent on prices and all?
Well, let me put it this way. I think more than 95% of the steel which is imported, or maybe 96%-97%, is produced in India, fully capable by all the domestic mills, or most of the domestic mills. So therefore, availability in India for those is not a constraint. Second, you're talking about contracts. I don't think there are any long-term contracts with anybody in this area from any OEM. So your question, you have limited certain grades which may be imported because they are not MOQ. That means the minimum order quantity is not available for some special items which may be too small for us to do. Other than that, I don't see any need for the, you know, import, so to somebody rely on the import. And I don't see that as well.
I think most of the import is primarily due to an opportunity of a price arbitrage, which takes place. There are some units which buy from their parent units in overseas. These are the only two reasons.
Right. Okay, sir. Thank you so much, and best of luck.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we would take that as our last question. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
So, just to summarize on what we have said earlier, I think the year has seen a very strong operational performance. We have been able to do growth in crude steel, in sales, as well as EBITDA. Going forward, next year, and the years beyond, we have now taken up our new capacity expansion. Directionally, we are moving towards 50 million ton. Phase III of Dolvi will be started now. Our focus on value added continues to be there. While we are growing, we are not leaving our focus on raw material security, both for iron ore and coking coal. So we are trying to make sure that whatever we are doing in terms of growth, we make it sustainable in every way and not only on decarbonization.
Thank you.
Great.
Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen, for joining us, and please contact us if you have any other queries.
Thank you. On behalf of JSW Steel, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.