Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the JSW Steel Limited Q2 FY 2026 earnings conference call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during this conference, please signal an operator by pressing star and then zero on your touchstone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Ashwin Bajaj, Group Head of Investor Relations. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, operator, and a very good evening, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to JSW Steel's earnings call for Q2 of the financial year 2026. We have with us today the management team represented by Mr. Jayant Acharya, Joint Managing Director and CEO, Mr. Jayraj Rathore, Chief Operating Officer, Mr. Arun Maheshwari, Director of Commercial and Marketing, and Mr. Swayam Saurabh, CFO. We'll start off with opening remarks by Mr. Acharya and then open the floor to questions. With that, over to you, Mr. Acharya.
Very good evening, everyone. Global growth, as we have all seen, continues to be fairly resilient, even in the light of ongoing challenges which we are observing on the geopolitical side as well as on the trade side. The IMF has made a marginal upgrade to its global forecast for 2025 to 3.2% compared to its previous estimate from July, while keeping its 2026 forecast unchanged at 3.1%. Although the tariff hikes were less severe for many countries than initially anticipated, the broader slowdown is still being driven by ongoing uncertainties which continue to dampen business sentiment and investment decisions across markets. On the positive side, we have seen some improvement in the Middle East towards a peaceful resolution. Meanwhile, India continues to stand out as the fastest growing major economy, and the RBI has raised its FY 2026 forecast to 6.8%.
While the ongoing global tariff scenario and geopolitical challenges are headwinds, the recent fiscal and monetary measures such as GST rate rationalization and easing of lending norms will bolster domestic growth. Rural prospects remain encouraging, supported by above-normal monsoons, higher tariffs, sowing, robust tractor, and FFCG sales. Although rainfall has been uneven in some of the regions, inflation has also been benign, and that has opened up room for further easing by RBI. India's steel demand stayed strong in the second quarter, rising 8.9% YOY on the back of continual government capital spending and steady consumption across key sectors. Crude steel production in quarter two rose by 13.8%. While domestic demand continues to be healthy, a quarter-on-quarter spike in imports has kept India a net importer. Additionally, the DGTR has recommended extending the safeguard duty for three more years and gradually reducing rates of 12%, 11.5%, and 11% respectively.
The DGTR has also proposed imposing anti-dumping duty on hot roll coils from Vietnam and CRNO from China. Steel production in China during January to August fell by 2.8% YOY, or approximately 20 million tons. However, exports have continued to remain elevated, growing 18% in January to August 2025. Manufacturing continues to remain strong in China, supported by the auto sector, but real estate has been weak, leading to lower steel consumption. The anti-involution measures and the Steel Industry Work Plan of 2025-26 issued at the end of August is a positive for the industry at large, suggesting further thrust on production and capacity control. Let's talk a bit about our sustainability and digitalization initiatives. I am happy to share with you that we have commissioned India's first green hydrogen electrolyzer at a 25 MW facility capable of producing 3,800 tons of green hydrogen per year.
It is a major milestone in our sustainability journey and a proud moment for all of us. The green hydrogen will feed into our DRI plant at Vijayanagar and will help reduce GHG emission. We continue to progress on increasing our renewable energy capacity. We have commissioned 885 MW of renewable energy, and a total of 2.5 GW generation and 320 MWh battery storage has been approved, which is on its way during the next coming years. As we continue to innovate, we are also integrating advanced AI capabilities to enhance productivity, sustainability, and deliver long-term value. From smart sales and marketing tools and quality monitoring and manufacturing to safety systems, AI-driven HR processes, we are embedding AI into our core operations. This is helping us to improve our efficiency, reduce our downtime, enhance our safety, and deliver a better experience for both our customers and employees.
On the growth strategy, we remain quite focused on discipline as we expand our capacities. At JVML Vijayanagar, our 5-million-ton expansion is fully commissioned now with the second converter starting in August and is ramping up well. The 3-million-ton BF3 at Vijayanagar has been shut down in the end of September for relining and capacity enhancement to 4.5 million tons. This upgrade will take about 150 days and should return to operations in February 2026. The phase three expansion at Dolvi from 10 to 15 million is progressing well as planned, with a timeline of September 2027 completion. The ongoing expansions will take our India capacity from the current 34.2 million to 41.9 million by September 2027. The board has now approved to set up a project of 1 million tons based on EAF in Karappa, Andhra Pradesh, by the end of FY 2029.
The plant will incorporate a section mill to produce structural steel, widely used in construction and infrastructure as construction transitions to becoming more steel intensive. The site has the potential for further expansion, and with possible iron ore availability in Andhra Pradesh, this site has potential for further growth. This project will take our India capacity to 42.9 million by FY 2029. Along with steelmaking, we continue to strengthen our VSP portfolio and capacities, aiming to keep our value-added and special products share in our total sales by over 50%. In August, we announced that we will expand our CRNO electrical steel capacity at the Nasik plant from 50,000 to 250,000 tons per annum, and the Vijayanagar facility to have a capacity of 100,000 tons per annum from 62,000 tons envisaged earlier. The board has also approved a 1 million-ton section mill at the Raigarh plant for making structural steel.
We are also upgrading our facilities at Salem to produce higher volume for steel bearings and high-end niche-grade steel. With the new section mills at Raigarh and then at Karappa, the company is strategically entering the structural steel segment to support the growing demand for modern construction solutions, with a focus on delivering high-quality, durable, and sustainable products. Our total plant CapEx for the period from H2 FY 2026 and extending over the next three and a half years is approximately INR 69,000 crores. We will spend approximately INR 20,000 crores per year as we had initially outlined, which will be funded primarily through internal accruals. We will keep updating you on our progress on the CapEx as we go into this financial year ending.
In the case of BPSL, I'm happy to share that on September 26, 2025, the Supreme Court dismissed the appeals filed by the former promoters and certain operational creditors. The court upheld the NCLAT 2021 order, which had approved JSW Steel's resolution plan for BPSL. The court has also acknowledged the substantial efforts made by JSW Steel in resolving and turning around BPSL into a profit-making company. If you look at our raw material security, we continue to strengthen that piece through a well-diversified portfolio of iron ore and coking coal assets. Currently, we are operating 12 iron ore mines, nine in Karnataka and three in Odisha, providing long-term iron ore supply and enabling us to reduce our logistics cost. Three new mines in Karnataka are expected to start in quarter one of FY 2027, which will together produce approximately 4 million tons.
In Goa, where we had won three mines, mining activities are scheduled to begin at the Kundam site in quarter three FY 2026. While operations at Sulla and Kodli mines are expected to start in H2 of FY 2027, these three mines together are expected to contribute to approximately 3.7 million tons of iron ore. We have further two exploration blocks, each in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, which will come online in subsequent years. On the coking coal front, as you are aware, we have secured three mines in Jharkhand and linkages from Coal India. This will become operational progressively over the next two to three years, as we have outlined earlier, with usable coking coal between 3.2 million- 3.5 million tons. Additionally, we have acquired a 20% stake in the Irawara coking coal asset in Australia in September and have been receiving an offtake of 20% of its production since then.
Recently, an opportunity came up to increase our stake by another 10%, which will now take our holding to 30%. We are also in the process of acquiring Minas, their review project in Mozambique, ensuring access to high-quality coking coal and reinforcing our raw material self-sufficiency, especially on the PLV high-grade coking coal category. We expect this acquisition to close in the current financial year. Let me now walk you through the operational performance for the quarter. We have reported strong operational performance amid ongoing uncertainties which we have faced globally. Our consolidated crude steel production in quarter two was the highest ever at 7.9 million tons and grew by 17% YOY and 9% quarter on quarter. We also reported the highest quarter two consolidated steel sales at 7.34 million, up 20% YOY and 10% QOQ, despite a prolonged monsoon supported by a healthy domestic demand.
Our Indian operations delivered the highest ever production at 7.66 million, up 16% YOY, and second highest ever sales of 7.07 million, up 19% YOY. This was driven by ramp-up of JVML and BPSL post-expansion and the Dolvi facility operating at optimum capacity post-shutdown. Domestic sales at 6.33 million were up 14% YOY and were the second highest ever in a seasonally weak quarter, outpacing the Indian demand growth of 8.9%. Our VSP sales were the highest at 4.31 million tons, up 20% YOY and 10% QOQ, constituting 64% of our total sales. In quarter two, we had registered the highest ever sales to automotive. Sales to renewable energy segment grew by 35%, and we also registered highest ever sales in the cold rolled and long product segments. Our overseas operations operated at higher capacity utilization, delivering improved volumes.
Our inventory levels have increased in quarter two due to monsoon season and as well because of the inventory buildup ahead of the shutdown of Blast Furnace Three in Vijayanagar for expansion. We are well positioned to meet expected demand in a seasonally stronger second half of the financial year. Let us now shift a little bit of our focus to financials. The consolidated revenue from operations at INR 45,152 crore, with adjusted operating EBITDA of INR 7,849 crore, reflected in EBITDA per ton of INR 10,701, a margin of 17.4%. The adjusted EBITDA excluded unrealized forex gains and losses on long-term borrowings. The adjusted operating EBITDA better reflects our operating performance. The reported operating EBITDA stands at INR 7,115 crore. During the quarter, steel prices declined, which impacted realizations. This was offset by a better product mix, lower operating costs driven by better efficiencies and operating leverage.
Coking coal costs were down by about INR 6, in line with our guidance. Our coking coal and iron ore specific consumption improved, also on better volumes. The energy costs were lower, both in terms of specific consumption and price due to higher renewable energy getting commissioned in the last quarter. Our Indian operations delivered a total EBITDA of INR 7,614 crore, with an EBITDA margin per ton of INR 10,768 and an operating margin of 18.1%. Our subsidiary, specially coated business performed well. The U.S. operations delivered INR 12.2 million of operating EBITDA. This was lower primarily due to a spillover of shipments of certain pipe orders at the Plate and Pipe Mill in quarter three. Italian operations delivered an EBITDA of EUR 5.6 million on higher sales of rails. Consolidated EBITDA for overseas operations stood at INR 241 crore.
Unrealized forex losses to the extent of INR 734 crore impacted overall profitability during the quarter. Our consolidated PAT stood at INR 1,646 crore compared to INR 404 crore in quarter two of FY 2025. Net debt at INR 79,153 crore was lowered sequentially, despite a INR 2,100 crore impact due to forex movement. Our revenue acceptances stood at INR 2.35 billion. We spent CapEx of INR 3,135 crore in quarter two and a total of INR 6,535 crore in H1 of this year. Moving on to JSW One, our digital marketplace. JSW One is changing the game for MSMEs in manufacturing and construction by making it easier to access materials, credit, and services through our digital marketplace. We had a strong quarter with INR 3,950 crore of GMV in quarter two, which is a solid 43% jump compared to last year.
What's even more exciting is that about INR 1,100 crore of that came from our credit offerings. We also raised INR 575 crore in our second round of external funding, which will help us scale our B2B e-commerce journey faster. As we conclude, I would like to mention that India's steel consumption outlook remains strong, underpinned by supportive fiscal and monetary policies despite ongoing global challenges. The recent GST cuts are very positive and are expected to lift consumer sentiment and give a boost to demand across key sectors and also ultimately drive private CapEx as companies achieve higher utilization. Steel demand is projected to grow by 8% to 9% in this financial year. As we move into the second half of FY 2026, we expect domestic demand to be seasonally strong with a tailwind of government and private CapEx, both likely to improve in the second half.
Historically, the second half has been stronger for steel consumption, and the potential rate cut by RBI could further boost investment and spending. On the global front, export trends will need close monitoring as they continue to pose challenges for the steel market. For JSW Steel, we remain optimistic about a strong second half backed by improving steel prices and higher production volumes from our assets. We would be happy to take questions which you have. Thank you.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchstone telephone. If you wish to withdraw yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to please use handsets while asking a question. We also request that you please restrict yourselves to two questions only. You may rejoin the queue for follow-up questions. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Our first question comes from the line of Sumangal Nevatia from Kotak Securities. Please go ahead.
Good evening, everyone. Thank you for the chance. My first question is on the prices. Over the last few months, we've seen domestic prices being at a discount to import parity after a long time. I want to understand what are the key reasons behind this because the demand data continues to be decent. If you could share what is our expectation of prices and when do we see normalization of some parity as far as imported prices are concerned returning to the markets. Thanks.
Yeah, so the prices have been softer in a seasonally weak quarter. I think post the monsoons in September, we have seen price stability. Going forward, I would expect the prices to improve in November, December of this quarter. You are right that the prices are currently at a discount to imported numbers. The capacities which have come in have been lumpy, and external headwinds have impacted sentiments to some extent apart from a weaker seasonal quarter. I would say that while exports need to be watched because of tariff measures being undertaken by various countries, we also need to watch out for imports which can come in because of that into India. That actually impacts sentiments to some extent. However, we are optimistic that in a seasonally stronger second half, we will see improvement in prices.
Understood, sir. Can you share what is the expectation with respect to the raw material prices, both iron ore and coking coal, in the coming quarter? Also, with respect to the slurry pipeline, which quarter are we expecting the commissioning, and what sort of volume and cost benefits do we expect with the commissioning of it?
Hi, I'm Arun. Regarding iron ore prices, it has been quite on the downward trend now, if you see within India as well. We have seen two corrections in the last one month happening in the eastern part of India. We see that, you know, this correction may continue because there have been decent supplies happening. At the same time, the raw material stocks are reasonably okay with the user industry. This is one reason why we think that iron ore prices should be slightly on the lower side. On the coking coal front, there has been a slight uptick we have seen in the international market, but then it doesn't look like we are having a very long range. Small corrections are likely to be here and there. Most likely, it should be remaining range-bound within what it is happening, maybe a couple of dollars here and there.
We don't see a very large swing in these coking coal prices as well.
In this quarter, because of a slight change in the PLV, we may see up to INR 3 - INR 5 increase in our coking coal cost in October-December. That's the only other information.
Your question about slurry is starting. As per the schedule, what we look at today, it is most likely it will start in Q4 of FY 2027.
Understood. Thank you and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Alok Deora from Motilal Oswal. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good evening. Just had a couple of questions. First is, actually, I missed that part. What's the coking coal guidance for 3Q?
INR 3 - INR 5 increase.
Increase of INR 3 - INR 5, sure. If you could highlight on the pricing part because prices typically which rise after monsoon have not been rising, if you can just indicate how the demand scenario you're looking at and any, you know, how much NSR we could be expecting in 3Q, any as in the incremental change in the NSR for 3Q, if you could just provide some sense on that and the demand side. Thanks.
Yeah, so you know the demand traction is positive. It goes to prove that in a seasonally weak quarter in monsoons, we have been able to grow our domestic volume by 14%. The country itself has grown by 8.9%, which is a strong positive. Seasonally, H2 will be even better. Therefore, from a volume standpoint, I think we'll continue to remain strong. As far as prices are concerned, I think we are reasonably optimistic that the prices should move up in this quarter, maybe November, December. By and large, we see prices having stabilized post the monsoon drops. That should play out into the second half of this financial year.
Sure. Just one last question. Imports have, you yourself also mentioned, imports have been pretty strong. Any color on that because the imports were ideally expected to come down, post a safeguard duty, which has not really happened for a sustained period of time. Just some color on that.
Yeah, so if you were to see on an absolute basis, your imports have come down. The only thing is that in the last two months, imports have again shown an increase. Primarily, these are because of the tariff headwinds which we are seeing in the world. Various countries are announcing different tariffs, and that is resulting in some spillover for steel looking for a market, and India becomes a natural choice. While our safeguard duties of 12% have been helpful in the first quarter, I think part of that is already eroded. As we watch the tariff actions by others, I think we will probably have to monitor how that goes and accordingly look for trade measures which may be required to support any kind of dumping which may come in.
Other than that, from an India perspective, I think we remain quite optimistic and quite strong in terms of our demand and our ability to meet that demand.
Sure. Thank you so much. That's all from my side. All the best.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Pratig Singh from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for the opportunity. The first question is a bit on the strategy side. Last quarter, I think we talked about the beneficiation plant in Andhra. Now we have announced a 1 million-ton EAF plant. Are we looking to do more investment except for blast furnace in Andhra as well?
Blasphemous in?
Andhra Pradesh.
Blasphemous, you're asking?
Yeah.
No, this particular facility as of now, which we have envisaged, is through an electric arc furnace. It's a 1 million-ton structural steel facility. We are not envisaging a blast furnace at this point of time. We have scope for expansion, but that expansion may be upstream or it may be also an addition of other capacities. We will see how that evolves. There is a place for expansion.
Thanks. The second question is on captive ore. What was the volume in terms of production of captive ore in this quarter, and what was the share of captive ore in our mix?
The share of captive, we have approximately, I think, close to 30% in the mix of iron ore from our captive mines.
Okay. Just a quick one here. Any update on the royalty on royalty status? When is the next hearing or when is the decision to be taken by the courts here?
It's just some days. We are still awaiting the final outcome by the courts. Hopefully, by the end of this month, we should be hearing something on it.
Okay, thanks and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Indrajit Agarwal from CLSA. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you for the opportunity. Just to understand the cash flow situation here on, you still have about INR 13,500 crore of CapEx to be done in the second half. While we will see liquidation of working capital, do you think our debt has peaked in 2Q or we could see by the end of FY 2026 debt to rise further from here?
Hi, this is Swayam here. Absolute debt would not be a right metric to look at. You would have noticed our net debt to EBITDA has come down to 2.97. We have been guiding also in the past that a number below 3 is something we will aim to maintain even in the future. While for this year, you know, absolute debt could go up or down, what we are more positively looking forward to is holding the net debt to EBITDA, the leverage ratios below 3.
Sure. Last question on NSRs again. How was the NSR move from Q1 to Q2, and how does spot compare to Q2 average?
NSR has gone down in the second quarter, as is reflected in our results, by close to 5% or so. Going into Q3, as I said, we expect the prices to improve in probably November and December as we go into a seasonally stronger second half.
All right. Thank you.
Thank you. We have the next question from the line of Parthiv Jhonsa from Anand Rathi. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. My first question is pertaining to this, one of the CapEx which I had actually given out in the annual report for the 4 million-ton GreenEdge steel at Sella. That has no mention apparently in the presentation. Is this a part of the pending CapEx which will be going forward from that 7.1 million ton? Is it a part of it?
Yeah. This allow capacity expansion is a part of our journey of 50 million tons which we have declared. I think part of that 2 million tons was to come in in this decade. We are keeping an eye on the CBAM ecosystem which the European Union is likely to announce in the next one or two months, what systems have to be followed, etc. Once we have a little better clarity on that, we'll take a call. From our preparedness perspective, Sella can be expanded very quickly, being a brownfield facility. We can do that quite quickly, as we said, with low carbon emission products. However, we'll watch how the CBAM rules which they outline, how that unfolds, and then take a view.
Sure. Thank you, sir. My second question is pertaining to iron. I believe you said that this quarter your captive was about 30% odd. What do you expect for the second half?
Our mining operations, you know, why it was lower was because the mining operations in Orissa volume had come down. We found, let's say, better priced products in the market which we have used. Going forward, I think we have been in this range of 30% - 40% over the last quarters, if you observe. I think we will continue to be in this range as we see in the second half as well.
Sir, if I may just quiz in, I believe I actually skipped it. What do you expect the iron ore prices to be in quarter three?
We expect the iron ore prices to decline in quarter three, which would be positive for our cost. By how much is difficult to assess, but I think some of the numbers are evident from the Orissa Mining Corporation tenders which have just come out. I think they have also declared lower pricing. Therefore, we are hopeful that lower pricing will be taken also by other producers in the market.
Sure. Thank you so much, sir.
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Amit Murarka from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, thanks for the opportunity. I missed the comments in the earlier part of the call, but just wanted to know if any guidance you're providing for Q3 realizations.
No, on Q3, we have said that, you know, our pricing environment we expect to improve over the November, December months. The prices have currently stabilized post weak monsoon quarter from a price point of view, but from a demand point of view, it was still good. Therefore, now we expect because the inventories in the channel are also low, the pricing should improve. On the coking coal side, we said that we may have an increase of INR 3- INR 5. We would try to build in some efficiencies to mitigate that. On the iron ore, we said that we are expecting the prices to decline. Therefore, that should be positive for the cost.
Thank you. Generally, also, like we have been seeing our local steel prices have been going at a discount to import parity, even though there is a safeguard duty in place. That's a bit puzzling to see as to why is that so because usually, anyways, we trade at a 3% - 5% premium.
No, you're right. We are currently also operating at a discount to the international prices. Part of that is because the seasonally weaker quarter usually reflects a lower price, especially in long products. When the long product prices go down, what happens is that your billet prices, your ingot, which starts producing also something from Patra, you know, all those prices come under pressure. Therefore, there's a sentimental impact on the overall pricing. Second is the capacities which came in during the past two, three quarters have been lumpy. From a production standpoint, therefore, you are seeing the production growth also reflecting that in India. From an external side, I think the exports, while they have grown, there are challenges on the international front. I think we are seeing, by and large, our capacities getting absorbed, channel inventories now coming down.
From a pricing environment point of view, I think we are reasonably optimistic that the price should improve in November, December going forward.
Right. Just a last question. What's your understanding on the pending Finance Ministry approval for the three-year safeguard duty? By when do you think it can come through?
The timeline is till November. I think by that time, we expect that to come in.
Okay. Thank you very much. A very happy Diwali to all of you.
Happy Diwali to you all.
Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Vikas Singh from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, I have just one question. The CBAM is going to be implemented very soon, and we are the largest exporter. What is our strategy in order to maintain our market share in the export market and probably gain from somebody else?
As I said, we are watching the CBAM policies, which in terms of the guidelines are fully still awaited. The only thing I would like to comment is that if you've seen that 90%+ of our volumes have been in the domestic market. Our focus on exports over the last few years has moderated due to a strong growth in the domestic market. Second is that our exposure, if you look at a 30 million- 32 million ton kind of levels, which we are able to do for Europe, is only about 2%, 2% to maybe 3%. To that extent, I think we will be able to find alternate markets which should be able to take these quantities. We'll have to keep a watch on how the CBAM and the duty structure which Europe is proposing develops.
Thank you, sir. That's all from my side.
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Vibhav Zutshi from JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Yes, hi. Thanks for the opportunity. Just wanted to get some more color on the iron ore sourcing and, you know, captive mix because it's been coming down now from, you know, that 37%, 40% - 30% levels. It looks like, you know, the imports have also increased in the last few months. Just to think, you know, as you expand your capacity at Dolvi, how to think about, you know, your captive mix versus domestic procurement and imports would be great to get some color over the next few years.
Iron ore sourcing has always been very dynamic for us because we have multi-location plants and multi-location sourcing. Our captive mines continue to produce to the full levels and we source maximum whatever we can source from our own captive mines, that is the first priority. Filling that bucket, thereafter, we get into the market. Within the market, we have different grid requirements, different location requirements, and basis that will define whether we have to go for domestic sourcing at that point of time, whether imports make sense because of the grid differentiations. It's a bit of a dynamic. Giving a color that what is going to be the strategy for the future is very difficult to say as of now. One thing is for sure, whatever our domestic mines are there, we continue to produce from those mines, and we continue to consume whatever we produce from that.
Balance, everything we get from Orissa or Chhattisgarh or domestic Karnataka, or any shortfall, then we cover it from imports otherwise.
We continue to evaluate opportunities with respect to economics, both domestically and internationally, and then take a call.
Yeah.
Sure. Thanks. Just a follow-up. I mean, is it fair to say that, you know, for your Dolvi plant, which is on the west coast, maybe imports make a bit more sense economically versus getting in from Orissa?
Not really. It depends upon what are the international market prices, what is the dollar exchange rate, and at what point of time you take a call on those imports. It's quite a little bit of a complicated exercise than a simple math. Value and use, the grade quality, the domestic grades—it's quite a mixed pack. We keep evaluating it. It's a dynamic process.
Got it. If you can just help quantify how much captive iron ore production is going to come in FY 2027 and FY 2028. I mean, you talked about Karnataka and Goa, but how much increase would happen if you could quantify that, it would be really helpful. Thank you.
Our captive total availability would be around 22 million- 23 million tons for the full year, which constitutes about 36% of the total requirement on an annualized basis if I look at it.
Okay. This is by FY 2026?
Yeah.
Yes.
Okay. Next year, say, on FY 2028.
We request you to please rejoin the queue if you have further questions.
Sure.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ashish Jain from Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Good evening. Sir, my first question is on CBAM. Given the kind of growth we are seeing in India and the number you mentioned in terms of how big Europe is as a market for us and even for India as a country, is it something really which will drive our strategic decision, like even for the expansion in the future? You touched upon CBAM as one of the things to watch out for. How critical is the CBAM policy and its impact for broader India as a market in your view?
You're right. From a strategic point of view, for us, the domestic market is the focus. I think we are one of the fastest growing, you know, from a demand perspective in the world. Therefore, for us, our focus will be domestic. Europe, I think, over a period of time, you know, in terms of consumption has also gone down. CBAM is probably a way they are looking at to see how to balance the domestic market with respect to supply and demand and to some extent give some support to the domestic producers. It is something which we are watching because some of our customers historically have been there, and we have been consistently supplying to them. We will continue to monitor that and see the guidelines, how it works.
If it makes economic sense for us to look at exports to Europe, we would do accordingly because we have a set of products which can go there. From a strategic point of view, your question whether it is necessary, it may not be as critical because the % overall in the equation is small. As our capacity goes up, the percentage actually is going to shrink.
Right. Secondly, I think this question was asked earlier on the call, but in the.
One more small thing is when, in case, you know, CBAM and all these duties which Europe is proposing to levy, if that were to come, actually, you would see also the pricing in the European market go up.
Right.
That's also something which you keep in mind. Sorry, you were asking a question.
No, sir. Just an extension of the first question itself. Do you, I know it's different, we don't know the answer to this yet, but do you envisage a big risk to Indian imports going up if CBAM comes, CBAM plus the import restrictions in Europe come in the form it is currently proposed?
It is still to be approved by the European Council and European Parliament. We'll see how it goes. Tariffs have probably become the way this year. It certainly does impact trade flows, and it may result in some of the steel knocking at our doors. As a country, we have to be vigilant on this, and I'm sure the government would take necessary measures as is required. I think we have seen proof of that. We have seen safeguards, although at a reduced level. We would have preferred a higher number as we had outlined earlier. If there is a need, I think the government will step up. We are seeing anti-dumping investigations also now being tabled by them in response to our application.
From that perspective, we are reasonably confident that the government will continue to support the steel industry to see that the trade is fair and no dumping takes place.
Right. Second is, with the kind of EBITDA, we are doing, let's say, INR 6,500 crore - INR 7,000 crore quarterly. I would believe with volume uptick, there is upside risk to this. Should we think that our net debt in absolute terms has peaked out? I know in response to an earlier question, you said that net debt to EBITDA is a way to think about it, which I agree. If you can comment on net debt as well, it could go up meaningfully from here.
We have outlined our capacity expansion plan for you. We have said that we would like to be 50 million tons by the end of this decade, and we are moving towards that goal. You would have seen capacity expansion in our press release also. We have given something, some flavor I gave in my initial opening remarks as well. We are deploying growth capital into the market, which we feel is the right thing to do in a growing market like India. While we do that, we maintain our eyes that we remain financially prudent. Ratios is one, I would say, metric for us to monitor that. Net debt to EBITDA and net debt to equity is something which we closely monitor. That is more important for us.
From an absolute number, it may vary a little bit here and there depending on the quarters, but we would continue to monitor the ratios more keenly.
Excellent. This is why I'm here. Other than CapEx, which we try and distribute as evenly as we can, there could be other reasons why net debt in absolute terms could move. For example, we have chosen to build inventories, knowing that BF3 is going to go in a shutdown, and we are going into sort of quarter three, which is typically a good quarter from a volume perspective. In this quarter, that has taken part of my debt because, you know, that's sitting in the working gap. Going back to what Jayant said, the leverage ratio is key reference for us internally as well because if EBITDA comes under pressure, we will take other actions so that, you know, we come within the acceptable range, internally targeted range of that leverage.
Absolute, the debt temporarily can go up or come down, but it's the ratio which we are tracking very closely.
Also, as we said, because of the depreciation, actually, our debt went up by INR 2,000 crore, which can actually reverse once the appreciation happens.
This is the translation impact on the FX part of the debt in balance sheet, which will correct itself, but if dollar appreciates, the INR equivalent debt would look high. This also updates.
Right, right. Got it, sir. Thank you so much. Thanks a lot.
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Satyadeep Jain from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you. I'm not sure if I missed some earlier commentary. I just wanted to ask about the EAF in Karappa. The timeline seems slightly longer. Is it maybe the gestation period for this kind of project would be this long? What led to this decision to look at Karappa? Was it maybe scrap availability? You're talking about structural steel replacing concrete. Are you seeing certain demand trends which are more favorable in that region? Just around this Karappa, I wanted to understand the thought process.
At Karappa, we have opted for an electric arc furnace technology to produce this 1 million ton. We have access to, let's say, scrap, which could be sourced from the domestic market. We will be setting up scrap processing centers in Chennai in addition to our scrap processing center in the West. That will align some part to this asset. We also would be using some part of the iron ore available from Andhra Pradesh as we develop the mining assets there. We had given you a kind of an indication earlier that we had formed a mining joint venture, and there we expect high-grade iron ore to also come out. We are basically looking at this asset from the point of view of a structural steel facility with iron ore possibly in the vicinity. This can be developed and expanded.
Beams from this facility will have a lower carbon emission because we would be using scrap as well, higher grades as well. We could use this for the domestic and international markets.
This location is just tied to source of raw material. In demand, you don't see anything maybe pointing to more demand for structural steel in those markets.
Structural steel demand, see, structural steel basically goes into the construction industry. Today, as you see, in India, it's more aligned to cement-based construction. Slowly, you are going into the more steel-intensive construction. Your beam-based construction or plated beam construction is a natural way to go. If you look at Andhra Pradesh, the entire state of Andhra Pradesh is looking at a lot of development. Therefore, I feel that it will be very appropriate for us to have an asset which can actually provide these construction products which are required for that infrastructure development. Also, the southern India overall as a market or the western India overall as a market is quite large for these products.
On this CapEx, we wanted to understand, you have this new project, you have some other CRNO, some value-added products. The main swing in CapEx at the presentation is in 2029, compared to the earlier expectations you had of about INR 20,000 -INR 22,000 crore annual CapEx for 2026, 2027, 2028. There is no major change. The only delta is in 2029. What explains that?
Didn't understand your question.
If you look at the earlier presentations you had, you were looking at INR 56,000 crore of CapEx. There is an increase of about INR 10,000 crore of CapEx. If you look at the annual bucket for CapEx for the next FY 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, compared to the earlier expectations, there is not much change in 2026, 2027, 2028. The entire delta is in 2029. Just trying to understand, is there?
No, I think what you are looking at now from the presentation, I understand what you're asking now. It's basically an update of whatever CapEx has been announced so far. As we announce new projects, this will get updated. You will see FY 2029, the numbers going up. As a matter of fact, FY2028, FY 2029, FY2030, you will see the CapEx spend going up, FY 2027 even to some extent. As we announce new capacities in our, as we said earlier, we are going to be expanding post our Dolvi phase three. We have brownfield facilities in Vijayanagar, which we will take up. We have Sella. We have BPSL as a brownfield option in addition to Paradip, which is a greenfield site, which we are trying to do in a modular fashion. All these will basically lead to our target of 50 million tons, which we have guided this market with.
As we announce these projects, these capacity spends for every year will keep on getting updated. This is only what you're seeing is announced up to now.
Just trying to understand the annual CapEx we're looking at, let's say INR 21,000 odd. Is there an upside because it doesn't seem to factor in some of these Karappa and other expansions? There is no change in CapEx for.
There will be an upside as we go into the CapEx spend will increase as we go into the remaining few years of this decade. We have a plan for that.
Thank you so much, and wish you a happy Diwali.
It will also be supported by additional generation of EBITDA from our JVML asset, which will play out fully in the next year. The expansion, which is now coming on stream with the BF3 augmentation, as also the phase three of Dolvi. The 7 million ton new capacities, which will kick in between now and September 2027, in addition to JVML, will provide us the necessary capital to be able to kickstart the growth story for the next phase.
That's clear. Thank you so much.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Pallav Agarwal from Antique Stock Broking. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good evening, sir. The first question was on iron ore. If I understood correctly, we are expecting probably a decline in Q3 iron ore costs. I thought NMDC had announced an increase in iron ore prices. Is that this decrease will come about because we have an inventory or how would this come about? No, actually, the NMDC last year prices, what we understand, there has been flat only. There has been no increase. In fact, considering the overall market scenario and considering the OMC auction results and the NMDC auction participation, we expect the prices to go down.
NMDC had done an increase earlier, post which they did a reduction. The way the prices are moving now, I think we expect a further reduction in the prices of iron ore, including from NMDC.
Okay. This will also be helped by maybe the logistics improving with more captive from Karnataka. Would that also versus Orissa? Would that also help in reducing the costs?
Yeah. That's a continuous process. We keep evaluating, as what we had said in one of the earlier conversations today, that we keep evaluating our total sourcing strategy, depending upon which location lost in cost and demand.
Yes. Sure, sir. Secondly, while the INR depreciation may have impacted on the translation front, overall, I'm guessing because of the increased pricing power, probably partly offset by higher coking coal cost, repeat depreciation would overall probably be positive for the P&L. Is that understanding correct?
Yeah, good that you asked. Any transaction which flows through our P&L, whether it is an export revenue or whether it is an import of material, is not translation, is already part of the results. What has impacted is essentially our capital account exposure, which is debt. Even within debt which are denominated in non-INR, only the debt which are maturing beyond 12 months, because anything rolling 12 months as a policy 100% covers. For example, a debt which has a maturity of 29, when I consolidate, I have to report my balance sheet in INR. That's the translation effect which has affected because Rupee has moved from 85.5 to 88.79. The convergence basically results in a translation effect. As we have explained, if you know, we expect Rupee to perhaps get stronger in quarters to come, once the trade uncertainty gets settled, and you would see reversal as well.
Yes, sir. That point is understood. My point is that we also benefit from higher prices due to import parity, right? The exchange rate depreciation allows us probably to charge higher steel prices. Net net, parity is offset by higher coking coal costs which we import. Overall, INR depreciation, despite the forex translation loss, would be overall, on a net basis, positive for the P&L?
In principle, you're right. It should have been positive in terms of a pricing environment even last quarter, at times it doesn't play out. In principle, what you're saying is correct.
Sure. Yeah, okay. Yeah, thank you, sir.
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Tushar Choudhry from Prabhudas Lilladher Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir. Congratulations on a good set of numbers. I wanted to understand GST impact on our user industries. Are we seeing some kind of good green shoots from user industries over the last, let's say, three weeks? What kind of industry volume growth do we expect in H2 and FY 2027? We have got enough capacities, we can obviously take away the market share. That was first.
Yeah. Regarding the GST impact, I think the market reaction is too early to say because there was a pent-up demand before that. There was some blackout period wherein people were not buying fresh things, and they were waiting for 22nd September for GST new rates to kick in. Right. Overall, it gives a positive sentiment to the market. We expect the consumption drives on the wine goods sector and the automobile sector should go up by virtue of this. How much and to what extent, probably we'll have to wait for four to eight weeks more to understand the real impact of the GST.
For the major consumer being BNC and infrastructure, do we expect our industry growth can, I mean, industry can go at 10%, 12% similar to last year or higher?
I think the way you should look at it is that the GST reforms, which they have announced, have been a milestone event. I think it has changed the sentiment of the buyer. You can see it reflected in Maruti Suzuki's booking, which they have announced in the papers. They are all struggling to meet the demands because they didn't anticipate this kind of demand for small cars, which were not there for some time. Secondly, the reduction of GST on cement will also have, I think, an impact on housing and infrastructure because that also, I think, would improve. You will see consumer durables, housing, residential, and office spaces, both improving. I think it should be positive, but as Arun Maheshwari said, I think we'll have to watch for a few months to see how it unfolds. I'm quite positive about this move.
It has been a big support, the way we have seen in the last few weeks. Let's see how it develops.
Okay. On the value-added products front, is our JVML's portfolio relatively lower in % terms? Basically, the EBITDA per ton is lower than standalone. That's the reason I'm asking.
Two reasons. One is that JVML special products. The difference between value-added and special is value-added is all the downstream products which we are making out from hot roll coil. JVML separately doesn't yet have a downstream capacity. Number two is that the special products piece requires certain facilities and equipment to be put in JVML, which are still getting commissioned. I think it will get commissioned by the end of this month. With that, the special product portfolio of JVML will grow. One more reason why you saw a slightly lower EBITDA last quarter is because the geographical mix, which the orders of JVML in the last quarter, the geographical mix was a little different than what our other facility in Vijayanagar had. That is why you saw a slightly lower EBITDA per ton because the freight was higher for the JVML orders which they had to execute.
This, as time goes, will balance out with their special products.
is the reason for that loss? Cotton? Cotton?
It's mostly FX. Part of the reason was this geographical mix only.
Okay, and part FX.
Part FX, and also part of the fact that prices indeed come down during the quarter.
Okay, thanks a lot.
Our guidance on JVML that the costs of JVML will be lower is playing out, and we have seen reduction of cost of JVML in quarter two. It's going in the right direction. We remain very positive about JVML operations.
Okay. Thanks, sir. Happy Diwali to you all.
Happy Diwali.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will take that as our last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for any closing comments. Over to you, gentlemen.
Thank you very much for the call. As we reiterate, we have delivered a good set of numbers in a seasonally weak quarter. We have ramped up our capacities in our expansion projects. We have announced new CapEx in various assets. We remain optimistic about the H2 demand in this financial year. JSW Steel is very well placed to take advantage of this demand. We expect to meet our guidance which we have given for production and sales, both for this financial year. With that, I would like to close. If there is anything else, you can reach out to our investor relations team to clarify. I wish everybody and families, all of you, a very happy Diwali. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, and wish you a happy Diwali.
Thank you. On behalf of JSW Steel Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.