HeidelbergCement India Limited (BOM:500292)
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Q4 23/24

May 31, 2024

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to HeidelbergCement India Limited's earnings conference call for quarter and year ended 31st March 2024, hosted by PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing Star then zero on your touchscreen phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Vaibhav Agarwal from PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Vaibhav Agarwal
Research Analyst, PhillipCapital

Yeah, thank you, Michelle. Good afternoon, everyone. On behalf of PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited, we welcome you to the earnings call for quarter and year ended 31st March 2024 of HeidelbergCement India Limited. On the call, we have with us Mr. Joydeep Mukherjee, Managing Director, and Mr. Anil Sharma, Chief Financial Officer of HeidelbergCement India Limited. I would like to mention on behalf of HeidelbergCement India Limited and its management that certain statements that may be made or discussed on this conference call may be forward-looking statements related to future developments and based on the current expectations. These statements are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties, and other important factors which may cause actual developments and results to differ materially from the statements made.

HeidelbergCement India Limited and the management of the company assumes no obligation to publicly update or alter the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or otherwise. Also, HeidelbergCement India Limited has uploaded a copy of the FY 2024 investor presentation on their website and stock exchanges. Participants are requested to download a copy of the presentation from these websites. I will now hand over the floor to the management of HeidelbergCement India Limited for opening remarks, which will be followed by a direct Q&A. Thank you, and over to you, Joydeep, sir.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Okay. Thank you so much, Vaibhav. On our key messages for 2024, which is a year past, the messages are that we are still continuing to produce 100% blended cement in our operations. We have signed a long-term hybrid PPA for 8 MW wind and 8 MW solar for 37 GWh per annum. Our share of non-grid power has increased to 38%. Our EBITDA of INR 659 per ton is up by 16% year-on-year. We have recently announced a debottlenecking of clinker capacity, which should result in an increased cement output of 200,000 tonnes. We have repaid interest-free loan of INR 629 million. Our cash and bank balance exceed the borrowings right now, and we continue to operate on a negative net operating working capital. We have recently announced post the board meeting a dividend of INR 8 per share. Okay.

So if we go on to the ESG overview, as I mentioned earlier, we are at 100% blended cement. Our CO2 footprint is currently at 506 kg per tonne of cement. We are 4.4x water-positive. As far as our CSR outreach programs are concerned, we touch more than 20,000 lives, and our green power is at 1/3 of our total power consumption. On the new hybrid renewable energy projects, we are very bullish on that, and this will further increase our green power share. Jhansi, the solar power supply, started under long-term solar agreement for 22 GWh per annum. Narsingarh is constantly and consistently operating on 40% green power. Narsingarh and Imlai, we have signed a long-term hybrid PPA for 8 MW wind and 8 MW solar, as we talked about before. And Ammasandra are consistently operating at more than 90%.

Our target is to reach more than 40% green power by FY 2025. For the financial year 2024, we had a 9% volume growth, and the March quarter grew by 4%. Our increase in profitability is fundamentally driven by a decrease in input costs. Obviously, the decrease in power and fuel prices, we're not able to get the full benefit out of it because there are also corresponding decreases in prices in the market. The April 2023 to March 2024 EBITDA increased mainly due to a decrease in power and fuel costs, as I mentioned before. We continue to operate on negative working capital, exceeding INR 2 billion. I think the rest of the points have been covered, except to say that we added a value-added product, which is Power Shield in December 2024. This is a functionally different cement. It's been accepted very well in the market.

We are already up to more than 8,000 tons of sales per month. This will result in premiumization of our brands, and we are now opening up our new markets for this product. For the financial year past, we dispatched 44% of our total products by road. This has slightly gone down by 2.8% year-over-year because we've also started addressing some new markets, which are a little further from our plants but are profitable. We are operating at 8% AFR, which is up by 2.3% year-over-year. On our total sales mix, 34% is of trade volume. We are up with premium products. This is up by 2.6% year-over-year, which is Power and Power Shield. On our sales composition, 82% of our total sales is through the retail channel, which is up by 0.6% year-over-year.

We are constantly increasing premiumization and optimizing the appropriate mix. On the outlook, we would say that there are some positives and obviously some challenges. On the positives, we see that the Indian economy has been growing at a very impressive rate. The quarter three FY 2024 GDP surged to 8.4%, which is higher than expectations. This is driven by strong domestic demand, government spending, and obviously manufacturing boom. Typically, in the past, cement has been at about 1.1x-1.2x the GDP growth. So we expect the growth to be strong and stable, absorbing some of the overcapacities in the market. On the inflation side, it has been on a downward trend. The CPI, obviously, was at a 9-month low of 4.9% in March. This is very good news for consumers and businesses.

GST collections have been at an all-time high, giving the government more resources to invest, which should be good for our sector. In the construction sector, the housing and infra, which are the major consumers of cement, are anticipated to continue to drive demand going forward. On challenges, obviously, one of the biggest challenges in the last couple of months has been the election, which has led to some conservatism in consumption. There's also a little bit of shortage of labor, etc., in the market, which has caused a little bit of a dampener in the last couple of months. The global headwinds also could be a challenge. The global slowdown and geopolitical tensions could pose some risks to India's export growth and foreign investments. Obviously, the competition is intensifying. The market is quite fragmented.

It is, as we see, going forward would only result in increased competition and potentially put pressure on cement prices. But obviously, after a period of the prices falling, we've always seen sense prevail and the prices to bounce back. So we don't anticipate that this is going to be a very serious issue in the long- term. So those are my comments. And I would now like to hand it over back to Vaibhav.

Operator

Thank you very much, sir. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask questions may press star and one on their touchscreen phone. If you wish to withdraw yourself from the question queue, you may press Star and two. Participants are requested to use only hands up while asking a question. You may press Star and one to ask questions. The first question is from the line of Keshav Lahoti from HDFC Securities. Please go ahead.

Keshav Lahoti
Equity Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. So I want to better understand more on the clinker debottlenecking, what sort of debottlenecking you are doing. You also have some 0.23 million ton debottlenecking on cement and clinker earlier planned. What is the status of that? And finally, on the Gujarat expansion.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Well, this clinker debottlenecking project has been started this year, and we are going to get the benefit by first quarter of 2025 calendar year. That's when the project will end. This debottlenecking shall result in an additional cement volume of 200,000 tons per annum. And the project is well on its way, and we don't anticipate any delays in this whatsoever. Does that answer your question?

Keshav Lahoti
Equity Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

Yeah, it answers. So earlier, we have some 0.2 million-0.3 million ton cement and clinker debottlenecking planned. So is that done in FY 2024?

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

No, this is the same debottlenecking project we are talking about. It's 0.2 million earlier.

Keshav Lahoti
Equity Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

When you say earlier, when was earlier? The last call.

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

Last call.

Keshav Lahoti
Equity Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

When last time you did the call?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

At that time, the board had approved it. The project hadn't started. Now the project has started, and it's going to be over by quarter one of 2025 calendar year.

Keshav Lahoti
Equity Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

Understood.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Yeah. On Gujarat, the matter is still pretty much in the government's court. We can't move till we receive the EC. So all efforts are on to get the EC. That's where it is right now.

Keshav Lahoti
Equity Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

Understood.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

The environmental clearance for the project hasn't come as yet.

Keshav Lahoti
Equity Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

Understood. What is the fuel cost on kcal basis for Q4, and what is the outlook in the upcoming quarter?

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

So, fuel cost, the consumed cost that could be estimated as the alternative fuel. During this quarter, our fuel cost was year-on-year. This is almost down by around 30%. Now we can say, as compared to March, it is almost flat in the current quarter. The kilocalorie calculation, this is because it's around INR 1.6 kilocalorie per kg of coal.

Keshav Lahoti
Equity Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

I think he's asking about fuel mix, coal and petcoke together, so.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Your question about how much coal or petcoke we are consuming?

Keshav Lahoti
Equity Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

My question is the combined fuel cost on Kcal is how much coal and petcoke and everything, including in Q4? And what is the outlook for Q1 and Q2?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Yes. Because this.

Keshav Lahoti
Equity Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

It is around INR 1.8 per kilocalorie is the combined fuel cost. On a specific point with respect to the current prevailing fuel cost, it's almost flat as compared to March.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Yeah. Just now, the outlook is also flat.

Keshav Lahoti
Equity Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

Understood. Got it. One last question from my side. How is the plans on merger of Zuari with Heidelberg? When should we expect?

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

Again, we have been working over it. We are not finding a solution with respect to the stamp duty thing. Although the government has already come out in 2021 with respect to regulatory part of the additional royalty, that problem is over. But with this stamp duty calculation, still we are not able to find that, okay, how much will be the payout. So we are working on it and still in the dark, management in the dark to find some solution to start the process.

Keshav Lahoti
Equity Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

Ideally, the right way to see is possibly nothing we should hear on FY25. Possibly, FY26 might be the year we should look for merger.

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

We appreciate that this is a kind of merger which covers around 8-10 states in India, as well as the transfer of the mining permits and the freehold land. Generally, we have seen that after filing the merger application, it takes around 12 months by the NCLT and thereafter in execution or transfer of all the property name of the listed company. We are right that even if you start the process in the fiscal year 2025, it is not going to complete. It takes time, maybe 2026 or 2027.

Keshav Lahoti
Equity Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

Okay. Got it. One last small question from my side. Green Power mix for FY2024 is 33%, and for Q4, you said 38%?

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

Green Power. One second. So there are two things. One is the dependence on the non-grid. So we also purchase some small quantity from the open exchange. So our Green Power, if you talk about 33%, is the pure power which we consume. And thereafter, we purchase around 5% from the open exchange. So there is 38% of the full- year.

Keshav Lahoti
Equity Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

Okay. For Q4, this number is similar?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Yeah. More or less.

More or less similar.

Keshav Lahoti
Equity Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

Yeah. Understood. Got it. Thank you. That's it from my side.

Operator

Thank you. You may press star and then one to ask questions. The next question is from the line of Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Yeah. Thank you, sir. Sir, before asking questions, just wanted to understand. I think last call we did in Q1, FY 2024, and then two quarters, we did not do the con call. And now, again, we are doing. So any specific reason? And now onwards, we will be doing every quarter, or it will be yearly basis?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Well, there is no hard and fast rule like that. But as of now, the thought is that we do it once a year. But if there is a need and if there is something which is substantial and material to announce, we can have it in turn too.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Okay. Got it. Sir, just to clarify this, when you said it will help to have an extra 200,000 tons of cement volume, so in terms of the clinker capacity, how much it will increase? So currently, our clinker capacity is 3.1 million, if I am not wrong.

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

You are right. In the moment, our clinker capacity is 3.1 million tonnes. This debottlenecking project will increase the clinker capacity. We are trying to get the additional clinker capacity approval from the government, and it will aid or it will increase the clinker capacity to 3.3 million tonnes or 3.4 million tonnes.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Okay. Got it. And in terms of the overall cost reduction, so when we are saying that our green share will increase to more than 40% versus currently 38%, so how much reduction in terms of the cost we are looking at? And apart from this, any other area where we are looking at in terms of the cost reduction?

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

Green power, fuel power is around 30%-35% cheaper than the green price. Our target to increase the green power only to optimize the cost, as well as to reduce the carbon content in the overall cement production. So at this moment, we are trying to get more and more green power from the developers. And we have already entered into one agreement with the developer for the total 8 + 8, 16 MW green power. And that will start in the current quarter, and you will see the benefit on that account. And to that extent, the power cost will be reduced by around 30%-35%.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

So if I have to in terms of the rupees per unit, if I have to look at, so the thermal power is 7.5 INR, and from there, it is 30%-35%. That's the way one can look at?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Yeah, that's right.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Okay. Okay. Apart from that, any other specific area where we are looking at a cost reduction? Trying to understand in terms of given the pricings are under pressure, so how the profitability can improve.

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

You might have also checked in the past that we have been putting a lot of CapEx on our alternative fuel projects. We have already done two phases of alternative fuel projects, and third phase is going on. That also will aid the slight, maybe, optimization of our variable cost, as well as it reduces the carbon content in the cement.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Okay. And current cement prices, are how much lower versus the fourth quarter average for us?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

I think on an average, we have seen a drop of around INR 6 per bag.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

In April and May?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Yeah, compared to the last quarter you're talking about, right?

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Yeah, yeah. So in April and May versus the fourth quarter average of INR 6, a drop is there.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Yeah, exactly.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Okay. Sir, if you help us with a couple of data points. On a yearly basis, we are given in the presentation all these trade share, premium share, road share, lead distance for fourth quarter, and if possible for third quarter, if you can share the same number: trade share, premium, road, lead distance, fuel mix.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

I don't have it readily available. These are very stable. If you see, these don't change. I mean, we are fundamentally a retail-oriented company. So there is no material change quarter to quarter. I mean, it may change by 0.5%, 1% here and there, but there is nothing more than that.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

CapEx for this year, FY2025, FY2026, and next year, if possible, if you can help, what would be the maintenance CapEx or any other CapEx?

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

Sir, next year, our major CapEx will come on account of this debottlenecking project. So out of INR 7 million, we expect that in fiscal year 2024, 2025, there will be around INR 50-INR 55 crore CapEx will come on this improvement project. And then other than that, around INR 50 crore in any case, every year, we have been doing sustainable CapEx. So next fiscal year, we can say the total CapEx will be in the range of INR 100 crore-INR 120 crore.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

This is in FY 2025 or FY 2026, you are saying?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

2025.

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

INR 125 crore or CapEx will be there?

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Okay. Okay. Got it. Thank you, sir.

Operator

Thank you. You may press star and one to ask questions. The next question is from the line of Uttam Kumar Srimal from Axis Securities Limited. Please go ahead.

Uttam Kumar Srimal
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Axis Securities

Yes, sir. Yeah, good afternoon, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, what kind of volume growth you are anticipating in FY 2025, taking into consideration the current demand scenario?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Well, the volume growth should be in line with industry growth. Remember that today, we are almost running at 80%+ capacity utilization. Our debottlenecking is not going to come in before quarter one. We shall be in line with the industry growth.

Uttam Kumar Srimal
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Axis Securities

So that means around.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Which should be in the region of about 6%-7%.

Uttam Kumar Srimal
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Axis Securities

6%, 7%. Okay. Sir, what was our lead distance this quarter?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Okay. Just give me a moment. Let me find this out.

375 km.

Uttam Kumar Srimal
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Axis Securities

375 km. Sir, fuel mix, if you can provide that, petcoke and coal together.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

We already spoke about fuel, but what do you want to know? Do you?

Uttam Kumar Srimal
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Axis Securities

Fuel mix.

You have given Kcal cost. I want to know fuel mix during the quarter.

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

16 petcoke, 30 coal?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Yeah. So for the entire year, no? You're talking?

Uttam Kumar Srimal
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Axis Securities

Only quarter. Quarter full.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

March quarter. So this is about, yeah, 30% coal.

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

30% petcoke.

Uttam Kumar Srimal
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Axis Securities

10% AFR.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

So that's 60% petcoke.

Uttam Kumar Srimal
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Axis Securities

60% Petcoke. Okay. Okay, sir. And that's all from my side. And wish you all the best.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Thank you.

Thank you.

Operator

You may press star and one to ask questions. The next question is from the line of Raghav Malik from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Keshav Lahoti
Equity Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

Yeah. Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Just two questions from my side. So first, on the value-added product, I just wanted to know how much higher is it priced versus our regular product? And what is the share of volumes that we can expect from this, maybe going to FY 2025?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Well, in terms of pricing, it is anywhere between INR 50-INR 60 higher per bag. But there are also higher inaugural discounts which are connected with this. We are about 8,000 tons right now per month. By the end of 2025, we should be clocking anywhere between 20,000 tons-25,000 tons.

Keshav Lahoti
Equity Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

Okay. Got it, sir. Sir, just a housekeeping question on geographical mix. Is it still largely Central? That's where we get most of our volumes from, Central India?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

It is UP and MP mostly. Yeah.

Keshav Lahoti
Equity Research Analyst, HDFC Securities

Okay. Thank you, sir.

Operator

Thank you. You may press star and one to ask questions. The next question is from the line of Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Sir, the Karnataka clinker Ammasandra, that we have officially now said that we have shut down. But the grinding 0.5 million ton, we are operating. So we are looking at to get the clinker from the reliable sources. So just trying to understand, have we done the arrangement? And is it a one-year arrangement, or it is on the spot? This is one or two-month arrangement, and will keep on happening?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

I have not understood your question. We are not doing any clinkerization there at all. We are sending clinker from our plants to Ammasandra for grinding. That is permanent.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

No, no. So the grindings, from where we are getting the clinker for Karnataka grinding?

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

We have been sourcing this clinker since 2017 from one of the Zuari plants. This clinker, we are getting from them, and we don't foresee any risk in the near future. That's why we mentioned also reliable source. There is no dearth of clinker availability for the Ammasandra plant.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Okay. I didn't understand this question. Okay. Yeah. So we are sourcing the clinker from our Zuari plants, which are located nearby.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Okay. Okay. Got it. And sir, in terms of the staff cost, this quarter has gone up decently. On Q-Q basis, from third quarter, it was INR 36 crore, now INR 45-odd crore. So any specific thing in this quarter or this run rate likely to continue?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

No, no. This is fundamentally because of distribution of bonuses and variable pays, etc.

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

And March quarter, this actual valuation of the retirement benefit also comes. So if you see, sir, year-on-year basis, the figure was higher than the December quarter. And on top of that, then the annual increment is there. So every December, March quarter, you will see slightly higher on account of retirement benefit also.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

So roughly, if I have to look at the run rate quarterly basis from Q1, will it again come back to INR 41 crore-42 crore? So currently, INR 45 crore for this quarter. So just trying to understand the normal run rate quarterly.

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

You are right. March quarter, slightly higher. So June quarter, you will see slightly lower.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Okay. Okay. Okay. Got it. And sir, is it possible to share the kcal cost for the third quarter? So 1.8 for fourth quarter, you have mentioned. But third quarter, what was the kcal cost?

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

We can calculate a bit.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Sorry, sir?

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

We need to calculate, but it was slightly higher. In December quarter, the kilocalorie cost was slightly higher than the March quarter. Around INR 2 was there in the December quarter.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Okay. Got it. And sir, the TSR, when we are saying 10%, so this 10% TSR is for FY 2024. And also, we are saying AFR is 8%. So if you can help me, what's the difference between this?

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

It is between the quarter and the annual. So in the full- year, our TSR for the alternative fuel was 8% in the March quarter because gradually, we are emptying up. So our AFR consumption has been increasing. So in March quarter alone, it was 10%. So you can assume that the full- year was 8%. So there is a gradual increase in the March quarter as well.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Okay. This will further increase to how much and by when?

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

Our target to increase further to alternative fuel, depending upon the cost of the alternative fuel availability in the market.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Sorry, how much to increase to at what level, sir?

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

You see, the main target is to increase it further.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

See, alternative fuel, in terms of thermal substitution rate today, depends a lot on availability, on biomass, etc., on the cost, everything. So if you were to ask me for an exact number, it is difficult to predict. But in terms of our commitment to the environment and reduction of carbon footprint, we would like to go on increasing it subject to availability of AFR.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Okay. And lastly, sir, this environmental clearance for the Gujarat expansion. So just broadly trying to understand, at least it will take 6 months, 1 year, or more than 1 year, 2 years. So just trying to understand, even if we, let's say, start, when can the plant come up? So previously, I think we have said that we are looking at 2 million tonne clinker and 3 million-3.5 million ton grinding. So will it come in next 2 or 3 years? That is, is there a possibility even if it comes, let's say, in next 1 month also?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

No, we would not like to make a speculative statement. I think the ball is purely on the government's court, and it will take its own time. We are following up, doing all the necessary work from our end. But at this point in time, we are unwilling to put a date to it because it's purely speculation. It only depends on when the final clearance is available from the government. Obviously, from that, putting up can take 3 years' time.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Okay. From that, 3 years' time. And the plan still remains the same 2 million clinker? In terms of the expansion, the plan remains the same 2 million clinker and 3 million-3.5 million tonne grinding?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Yes.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Okay. Okay. Got it, sir. Thank you.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. You may press Star and one to ask questions. The next question is from the line of Aman Agarwal from Equirus Securities. Please go ahead.

Aman Agarwal
Research Analyst, Equirus Securities

Yes. Thank you for the approach, Joydeep sir. Congratulations on good growth registered in FY 2024 on the volume side. Sir, I wanted to understand on the management philosophy with respect to this plant. Awaiting the approvals, are we open to maybe look at some outsourced grinding arrangement in the similar region, maybe to create a branding awareness or to increase the channel strength over that region till the plant comes up?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

You're talking about Gujarat?

Aman Agarwal
Research Analyst, Equirus Securities

Gujarat market. Yes, sir.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

No, as of now, there's no such plan to outsource grinding.

Aman Agarwal
Research Analyst, Equirus Securities

Okay. And given that this plant still awaits the clearance, are we also looking at maybe some other region? I'm asking especially as the central region has been increasingly witnessing higher competitive intensity. So since we are already standing on a net cash position, is that something that the management also be going around to look at some other regions to enter into?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Other what? Are you talking about other geographies?

Aman Agarwal
Research Analyst, Equirus Securities

Other geographies. Yes, sir.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Yeah. So that will purely depend on what's available. I mean, we are open to both organic as well as inorganic growth.

Aman Agarwal
Research Analyst, Equirus Securities

Anything on the drawing board series, sir, in terms of newer expansion other than the Gujarat plant?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

That is not something that we would like to declare right now. We'll do it as and when we are ready.

Aman Agarwal
Research Analyst, Equirus Securities

Understood, sir. Understood. I just wanted to ask. Thank you.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Yeah. But we are looking at growth. That's the only statement I'm allowed to make at this point in time.

Operator

Thank you, sir. For this time, you may press Star and one to ask questions. The next question is from the line of Uttam Kumar Srimal from Axis Securities Limited. Please go ahead.

Uttam Kumar Srimal
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Axis Securities

Yes, sir. Thanks for the opportunity again. Sir, in terms of premium cement, we are already at 34%. So how much more are we trying to go in terms of selling premium cement?

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

The premium cement contribution.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Oh, okay. Okay. Okay. So yeah, as you heard that we've launched a new cement, which is a functionally different cement. So I think our ambition is to reach a number of around 45% in the next two years. So that's what we are running for.

Uttam Kumar Srimal
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Axis Securities

Okay, sir. Okay, sir. That's all from us. Okay. Thanks a lot.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Yeah.

Operator

Thank you. You may press Star and one to ask questions. Ladies and gentlemen, you may press Star and one to ask questions. This will be the final reminder, and no further reminders will be given. The next question is from the line of Shravan Shah from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Sir, this quarter, in terms of the change in inventory number, that is a INR 14-odd crore. So in terms of the per tonne, actually, that number is decently high. INR 115-odd comes. So that reduces the overall cost, and that leads to a higher EBITDA per tonne. So just trying to understand, will it kind of normalizes or reverses in the Q1? And then given the INR 6 drop in the price, so the Q1 EBITDA per tonne likely to be much lower than the fourth quarter number. That's the directionally wanted to understand.

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

We can't interpret this increase or decrease of inventory with the cost of production. This is a mix of the clinker and cement which we produce, and that basically aligns in your inventory. So it depends upon that, okay, how much quantity we produce next quarter and how much we are selling in next quarter. But it is not impacting your cost of production at all. So with respect to directionally profitability of the quarter, it depends upon the price in the market and the volume in the market.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Okay. Okay. Because just trying to understand, I didn't get clearly in terms of how our costs will reduce from now onwards given the INR 6 drop in the cement prices. So from the current levels, if one has to understand directionally how the profitability can inch up because we are only looking at 6%-7% kind of a volume growth, no such major expansion is there. So that's the worry, just trying to understand.

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

We don't give guidance for the quarter or the year.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Okay. Okay. Got it. Thank you, sir.

Operator

Thank you. This will be the last question for today, which is from the line of Aman Agarwal from Equirus Securities. Please go ahead. Mr. Agarwal, kindly proceed with your question, sir.

Aman Agarwal
Research Analyst, Equirus Securities

Hello. Am I audible now?

Operator

Yes, sir.

Aman Agarwal
Research Analyst, Equirus Securities

Yeah. Sir, just wanted to understand the volumes front for April. So we understand that there has been kind of a double-digit decline that the Central India market broader basket has gone through. What's your view on that and how are you viewing 1Q volumes for Heidelberg?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

No. As of now, yes, the market is degrowing. There is no doubt about it.

Aman Agarwal
Research Analyst, Equirus Securities

Just wanted to understand.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

I've been aware of the gravity of the same, sir. So the number that you indicated is right. In the entire industry, all the major players, the degrowth would be in that range. It will be a double-digit degrowth for April and May, but we are looking at an uptick in June post the election dates are over because there would be a lot of pent-up demand. So June, in our estimation, should be much better.

Aman Agarwal
Research Analyst, Equirus Securities

Okay. So 15% would be typical to.

Just wanted to understand.

For year, I think something like that.

15%-20% would be the range that April and May degrow throughout again?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

I would not be able to comment on what everyone would perform.

No, not on the broader market level, sir.

Aman Agarwal
Research Analyst, Equirus Securities

Well, if I would hazard a guess, it would be in the early double digits. That's all I can tell you right now.

Understood, sir.

Raghav Malik
Associate Equity Research, Jefferies

Yeah. Yeah.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Thank you.

Aman Agarwal
Research Analyst, Equirus Securities

Yeah.

Operator

Thank you. As that was the last question for today, I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Vaibhav Agarwal for closing comments. Over to you, sir.

Vaibhav Agarwal
Research Analyst, PhillipCapital

Yeah. Thank you, Michelle. Sir, just a clarification. Did you say on the call that the guidance is about 6%-7% volume for FY 2025, if I heard it right?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

I didn't understand your question. Can you?

Vaibhav Agarwal
Research Analyst, PhillipCapital

On the call, did you say that the guidance for FY 2025 volume is about 6%-7%?

Anil Sharma
CFO, HeidelbergCement India

We have estimated the industry growth of around 6%-7% volume growth.

Vaibhav Agarwal
Research Analyst, PhillipCapital

Okay. Any guidance for Heidelberg, sir, from a volume perspective for FY 2025?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

No. At this point in time, no.

Vaibhav Agarwal
Research Analyst, PhillipCapital

Okay. And sir, any views on industry consolidation going forward? How do you see the industry consolidating, especially with players like JK Cement, etc., adding large capacities in your region or maybe coming up with new lines? So how do you see with any better pricing scenario in the longer term? I'm not asking for the near- term, but in the longer term, the pricing scenario getting more stable and better with larger players also coming in in a big way in the Central India markets?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Well, that's actually right at this point in time. Difficult to predict. But as you know, these always go through cycles. Whenever there's a new capacity in the market till the capacity is kind of at least 65%-70% fueled up, there would be pressure on prices. After that, prices typically tend to stabilize. So whether that's a larger player, whether that's a smaller player, it hardly makes any difference.

Vaibhav Agarwal
Research Analyst, PhillipCapital

Any views on consolidation?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

I think consolidation is the way to go, I mean, into the future, but it's difficult to put a timeline to it. But some kind of consolidation is bound to happen.

Vaibhav Agarwal
Research Analyst, PhillipCapital

Okay. Okay. Right. And we are also kind of open to evaluate inorganic because we are sitting on reasonable cash, I would say. So we are open to evaluate opportunities. Is it fair to say?

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Yes. Absolutely. Absolutely. Absolutely.

Shravan Shah
Senior Research Analyst, Dolat Capital

Okay. That answers it, sir. Thanks a lot. Thanks a lot for your time on the call. On behalf of PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited , we'd like to thank the manager of HeidelbergCement, and also many thanks for participating in the call. Michelle, you may now conclude the call. Thank you very much, sir. Thank you. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you, sir. Thank you, members of.

Joydeep Mukherjee
Managing Director, HeidelbergCement India

Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you.

Vaibhav Agarwal
Research Analyst, PhillipCapital

Hello?

Operator

Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

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